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1. Letter from the Editors

Author:
William Handel and Nora McGann
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
In 1950 six nations created the European Coal and Steel Community, laying the foundations for what would later become the European Union. Since then many other regions have integrated and the number of regional organizations has proliferated. In Africa alone there are several, and often countries are members of multiple organizations. Regional organizations are key actors in tackling tough problems, such as protecting human rights, preventing and resolving conflict, strengthening regional cooperation, and promoting economic growth. The purpose of this issue's Forum, consisting of five articles, is to provide readers with a theoretical and practical overview of key aspects of regional integration and regional organizations. The first two articles provide a theoretical discussion on regional integration, while the following three articles present case studies on regional organizations – the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Arctic Council, and ASEAN. These pieces are summarized in Piero Graglia's introduction. Other contributions to this issue include articles about self-defense groups in Mexico, reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan after the 2014 withdrawal, the Chinese middle class, and Scotland's referendum on independence. The issue also features interviews with Ambassador Joseph D. Stafford III on his experience in the U.S. Embassy in Tehran during the hostage crisis, Professor Joseph S. Nye on American leadership, and Ambassador-at-Large Melanne Verveer on global women's issues. In selecting the topics for this issue we have reached beyond the headlines in an effort to explore tough and persistent global problems. We are proud to end our tenure as Editors-in-Chief with an issue that looks to the future. We are grateful to Dean Jennifer Windsor and Allyson Goodwin for their invaluable advice and support as well as to our dedicated team of editors for their tireless work on this issue of the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs.
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2. Forum: The Integration of Regions

Author:
Piero S. Graglia
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Regional integration and regional organizations are two sides of the same coin although at times stamped with different metals. Regional organizations are often characterized by different levels of integration, and an integrated region can present itself in various ways with regards to security integration, environmental protection integration, and economic and trade integration. In other words, we lack a reference system or scale to determine the "extension" (as a logic theorist would say) of the integration process. The reason is that between the Westphalian Nation-State willing to collaborate with its neighbors and a complete federal union, we can find several models and historical examples of political and economic integration, sectorial or functional, military or trade-oriented.
Topic:
International Relations and Economics

3. Regions and Regionalism

Author:
Fredrik Soderbaum
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Over the last two decades there has been a veritable explosion of research and policy discussion on regional integration and regionalism all over the world. Some of the most influential thinkers in the field emphasize that regions and regionalism are now central to global politics. For instance, Peter Katzenstein rejects the “purportedly stubborn persistence of the nation-state or the inevitable march of globalization,” arguing that we are approaching a “world of regions.” Similarly, Amitav Acharya examines the “emerging regional architecture of world politics,” whereas Barry Buzan and Ole Weaver speak about a “global order of strong regions.” “Regions are now everywhere across the globe and are increasingly fundamental to the functioning of all aspects of world affairs from trade to conflict management, and can even be said to now constitute world order,” Rick Fawn writes. While there is a strong tendency in both policy and academia to acknowledge the importance of regions and regionalism, the approach of different academic specializations varies considerably, and regionalism/regional integration means different things to different people in different contexts. Such diversity could be productive. However, the prevailing diversity is a sign of both weakness and fragmentation. We are witnessing a general lack of dialogue among academic disciplines and regional specializations (European integration, Latin American, Asian, and African regionalism) as well as theoretical traditions (rationalism, institutionalism, constructivism, critical and postmodern approaches). There is also thematic fragmentation in the sense that various forms of regionalism, such as economic, security, and environmental regionalism, are only rarely related to one another. Such fragmentation undermines further generation of cumulative knowledge as well as theoretical innovation. It also leads to unproductive contestations, among both academics and policy makers, about the meaning of regionalism, its causes and effects, how it should be studied, what to compare and how, and not least, what are the costs and benefits of regionalism and regional integration
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Asia, and Latin America

4. Regional Integration Studies

Author:
Luk Van Lagenhove
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
The academic study of regional integration is scattered amongst different disciplines. Political scientists have a longstanding interest in regional integration but historians, economists, lawyers, and international relations scholars have been studying regional integration as well. Often a comparative perspective is taken. Hence the development of “Comparative Regional Integration Studies” as an institutionalized academic activity aimed at performing scientifically sound comparisons of regional integration processes across the globe and across time. But as Alberta Sbragia rightly noted, the study of comparative regionalism is ill-defined and “its boundaries are certainly permeable.” There is indeed a lot of confusion about the study-object of the field. Take for instance Ernst Haas's classic definition of regional integration: “the study of regional integration is concerned with explaining how and why states cease to be wholly sovereign, how and why they voluntarily mingle, merge, and mix with their neighbours so as to lose the factual attributes of sovereignty while acquiring new techniques for resolving conflict between themselves.” Here the emphasis is on losing sovereignty. But is this the case for all forms of regional integration? What if the “integration” is organized on a purely inter-governmental basis? Furthermore, both the concepts of “integration” and “region” are problematic. Integration has a normative connotation as it is often implicitly regarded as a positive development (in contrast to the negative connotation of disintegration) and region is a polysemous concept that can refer to supranational, subnational, or cross-border areas. It is therefore not always clear what the unit or object of comparison is. And on top of that, regional integration in Europe seems to obscure the field as scholars disagree on what place the EU should take in comparative regional integration studies. In recent years, many authors have pointed to these conceptual and other methodological problems. This article argues that comparing different forms of regional integration is scientifically feasible, but only if a social constructivist point of view is taken. Only in this way can a general theory be developed that allows understanding of the diversity of integration processes. It also claims that it is policy-relevant to compare the European integration experiences with regional integration in the rest of the world.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Europe

5. The Arctic Council as Regional Body

Author:
Klaus Dodds
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Arctic Council (AC) is an inter-governmental organization that, since its creation in 1996, has been widely recognized as one of the most progressive regional bodies in the world. The membership includes the eight Arctic states (A8), six permanent participants, and observer states such as the UK and Germany. From May 2013 onwards, there are also new permanent observers including China, India, Japan, and South Korea. The European Union's candidature has been delayed and subject to further review and assessment. The Council is chaired by one of the eight Arctic states for a two year period. The current chair is Canada (2013- 2015) and it will be followed by the United States (2015- 2017). The permanent participants, including the Inuit Circumpolar Council, Saami Council, and Aleut International Association, enjoy full consultative status and may address the meetings of the Council. Administrative support is provided by the Indigenous Peoples Secretariat (IPS), which is based in Copenhagen. The AC lies at the heart of debates about Arctic futures. It faces two challenges – institutional evolution and membership. For its supporters, the AC occupies center position in promoting an orderly and cooperative vision for the Arctic, but there is no shortage of commentary and punditry analyzing and predicting a rather different vision for the Arctic. As Paul Berkman asserted in the New York Times, under the heading “Preventing an Arctic Cold War,” there is little room for complacency. Berkman's analysis warned of Arctic and non-Arctic states being increasingly forced to confront difficult issues relating to policing, resource management, accessibility and navigability, alongside environmental protection. His suggestion at the end of the piece appeared, seemed rather odd, “[a]s the head of an Arctic superpower and a Nobel laureate, Mr. Obama should convene an international meeting with President Putin and other leaders of Arctic nations to ensure that economic development at the top of the world is not only sustainable, but peaceful.” Bizarrely, there is little analysis of how, and to what extent, the AC and other bodies, including the United Nations Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), are actively providing “rules of the road” (Berkman's phrase) for the Arctic region and beyond. This piece focuses on some issues that require further attention (such as the protection of the Arctic marine environment) while acknowledging how the AC has changed in the last few years. As a regional body, it operates in a strategic environment where few specialist observers believe that military conflict or destabilizing resource speculation is likely to prevail. Nonetheless, it is a work in progress with pressing demands to address. I will discuss debates about membership status and the institutional evolution to respond to experts' concerns about disasters (which might involve a shipping or drilling accident) and ongoing climate change, including manifestations such as sea ice thinning in the Arctic Ocean
Topic:
Cold War
Political Geography:
Japan, China, United Kingdom, Canada, India, South Korea, and Germany

6. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization

Author:
Stephen Blank
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
The SCO grew out of a Chinese initiative (hence its name) from the late 1990s that brought together all the states that had emerged from the Soviet Union in 1991 and signed bilateral border-delimiting treaties with China: Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. In 2001, these states and Uzbekistan formally created the SCO. Since then it has added observer states—Mongolia, Afghanistan, India, Iran, and Pakistan—and dialogue partners—Turkey, Belarus, and Sri Lanka. The SCO's original mandate seemingly formulated it as a collective security organization pledged to the defense of any member threatened by secession, terrorism, or extremism—for example, from Islamic militancy. This pre-9/11 threat listing reflected the fact that each member confronted restive Muslim minorities within its own borders. That threat may indeed be what brought them together since China's concern for its territorial integrity in Xinjiang drives its overall Central Asian policy. Thus, the SCO's original charter and mandate formally debarred Central Asian states from helping Uyghur Muslim citizens fight the repression of their Uyghur kinsmen in China. Likewise, the charter formally precludes Russian or Chinese assistance to disaffected minorities in one or more Central Asian states should they launch an insurgency. In practice the SCO has refrained from defense activities and followed an idiosyncratic, even elusive, path; it is an organization that is supposed to be promoting its members' security, yet it is difficult to see what, if anything, it actually does. Officially published accounts are of little help in assessing the SCO since they confine themselves to high-flown, vague language and are short on specifics. We see from members' actual behavior that they primarily rely on bilateral ties with Washington, Beijing, or Moscow, or on other multilateral formations like the Russian-organized Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), itself an organization of questionable effectiveness. Therefore, this essay argues that the SCO is not primarily a security organization. Rather, it provides a platform and regulatory framework for Central Asian nations to engage and cope with China's rise and with Sino-Russian efforts to dominate the area. As such, it is attractive to small nations and neighboring powers but problematic for Russia and the United States. Analyzing the SCO's lack of genuine security provision, its membership expansion considerations, and Russia's decline in power will help clarify the organization's current and future roles.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia, United States, China, Iran, Washington, Central Asia, India, Shanghai, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Beijing, Tajikistan, Soviet Union, and Moscow

7. The ASEAN Synthesis: Human Rights, Non-Intervention, and the ASEAN Human Rights Declaration

Author:
Mathew Davies
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
The ASEAN Human Rights Declaration (AHRD) has been welcomed as the most impressive commitment to protecting human rights within ASEAN ever created. At the same time, others have criticized it as fatally flawed, creating no meaningful regional oversight of human rights. In this article I argue that this range of reactions is explicable by understanding the Declaration as embodying what I term the “ASEAN synthesis” between progressive and traditionalist positions held by member states. Since 1997 the progressives have lobbied for substantial reform of ASEAN, including a commitment to human rights. The traditionalists, while not opposed to reform, envisage a traditional approach to regional affairs that prioritizes member-state security through commitments to sovereign equality and non-intervention. The ASEAN synthesis reconciles these two agendas by legitimizing the discussion of human rights within the regional framework while also reinforcing the principle of non-intervention, seriously curtailing the ability of regional institutions and declarations to engage in proactive rights protection. The argument unfolds in three parts. The discussion first identifies the members and interests of the progressive and traditionalist camps, placing them in the context of ASEAN's evolution since 1967 and with particular attention to the 1997 Financial Crisis as the trigger for their emergence. The second section examines the evolution of ASEAN from 1997-2012 and argues that this process can be understood as representing the synthesis of the progressive interest in human rights as aims and the traditionalist focus on orthodox practices. The final section examines the AHRD itself to reveal the influence of both interest groups
Topic:
Human Rights and Financial Crisis

8. Mali: This is Only the Beginning

Author:
Baz Lecocq
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Finally, the situation in Mali was rotten enough for international intervention. First because the mujahideen of Ansar Dine, the Movement for Tawhid and Jihad in West Africa (MUJWA), along with Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), only had to exercise a little pressure at the front in Konna, to let the last remnants of the Malian Army fall apart.1 Second because the Malian Interim President, Dioncounda Traoré, installed after the coup d'état against President Amadou Toumani Touré of 22 March 2012, faced yet another coup d'état from this same decrepit army, set heavily against foreign intervention as it might upset its power within Mali, which led him to formally ask France for military support, believing he had nothing to lose.2 Undoubtedly, the French Ministry of Defense and French Military HQ État-Major des Armées had a plan ready despite President Hollande's public assurances that France would not pursue a neocolonial intervention in a sovereign state. France has historically intervened militarily in West Africa whenever the situation allowed.3 In the past decade, Mali had become more and more part of the U.S. sphere of influence in Africa as U.S. armed forces trained Malian troops in counter terrorism operations. This was without much success, as is now clear, but France must have looked with disquiet upon their loss of influence. Then there are the uranium mines at Imouraren in neighboring Niger, only a few hundred kilometers from the mujahideen controlled zone in Mali. A further degradation of the security situation in Mali would certainly pose a threat to these French strategic interests
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, France, West Africa, and Mali

9. The Kurdistan Region of Iraq: Stabilizer or Spoiler?

Author:
Denise Natali
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Despite the contentious Iraqi political arena, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq is pressing ahead with its ambitious agenda for economic development and greater autonomy. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) continues to negotiate large-scale energy deals with foreign governments and international oil companies (IOCs), expand its commercial and investment interests, and assure internal stability by controlling the use of force within its borders. Economic opportunities have encouraged political cooperation with regional states, especially Turkey, while reaffirming shared border security commitments. The KRG not only has become Ankara's key—if not only—regional ally, but its partner in checking the Kurdistan Worker's Party (Partiye Karkaren Kurdistane-PKK) and its expanding trans-border affiliates. Yet, the Kurdistan Region's particular condition as a quasi-state also makes it a political spoiler, or a potential one. In the absence of external sovereignty, the region thrives on international recognition, external patronage, and a weak central Iraqi government to advance its nationalist ambitions. While these features of quasi-statehood help affirm the KRG's autonomy, they challenge the Iraqi government's own state-rebuilding efforts that seek to consolidate its authority and territorial integrity. Additionally, the region's landlocked position and absence of an independent revenue source leave it highly dependent upon Baghdad and regional states for its economic and political survival. These geopolitical and financial realities may encourage deal-making to secure Kurdish interests or the status quo in Iraq; however, they can also source conflict within and across Kurdish nationalist communities beyond Iraq's borders
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Baghdad, and Kurdistan

10. Building Community Resilience to Violent Extremism

Author:
Stevan Weine
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Obama administration's landmark new approach to countering violent extremism through engaging community partners calls for no less than a paradigm shift in how we understand the causes of terrorism. The shift is away from a pathways approach focused on how push and pull factors influenced one person's trajectory toward or away from violent extremism, and towards an ecological view that looks at how characteristics of the social environment can either lead to or diminish involvement in violent extremism for the persons living there. The core idea of this new paradigm, conveyed in the White House's December 2011 Strategic Implementation Plan for Empowering Local Partners to Prevent Violent Extremism in the United States (SIP), is that of countering violent extremism through building resilience. Denis McDonough, former Deputy National Security Advisor to President Obama, expressed this at an Islamic center in Virginia, stating, “we know, as the President said, that the best defense against terrorist ideologies is strong and resilient individuals and communities.” Subsequent White House documents have further unpacked this, for example, in stating: “[n]ational security draws on the strength and resilience of our citizens, communities, and economy.” Resilience usually refers to persons' capacities to withstand or bounce back from adversity. It is a concept derived from engineering perspectives upon the durability of materials to bend and not break. In recent years, resilience has come to the forefront in the fields of public health, child development, and disaster relief. To scientists and policymakers, resilience is not just a property of individuals, but of families, communities, organizations, networks, and societies. Resilience-focused policies and interventions that support or enhance its components have yielded significant and cost effective gains in preventing HIV/AIDS transmission, and helping high-risk children and disaster-impacted populations. Though the present use of resilience sounds more like resistance, today's hope is that such approaches could also keep young Americans away from violent extremism. A resilience approach offers no quick fix, not in any of the aforementioned fields or in countering violent extremism. It depends upon adequately understanding what resilience means for a particular group of persons and how it has been shaped by history, politics, social context, and culture. It also depends upon government establishing and sustaining partnerships with the impacted families, communities, networks, and organizations. Additionally, it depends on government working in partnership to design, implement, and evaluate what interventions can really make a difference in building resilience, a process certain to involve trial and error
Topic:
Security and Islam
Political Geography:
United States

11. The Most Dangerous Country on Earth

Author:
Joseph Cirincione
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
In any given week, there is significant competition for the title of “most dangerous country in the world.” Some may believe it is Syria or Mali, Iran or North Korea, China or Russia, or dozens of others. As tragic as conditions may be in these countries, as potentially harmful as their policies may seem, no state truly comes close to the multiple dangers inherent in Pakistan today. Trends in this nation may converge to form one or more nuclear nightmares that could spread well beyond the region to threaten international security and the lives of millions. Experts estimate that Pakistan has between 90-110 nuclear weapons and enough fissile material to produce 100 more. It has an unstable government, a fragile economy, strong extremist influences in its military and intelligence structures, and Al Qaeda, as well as half a dozen similar terrorist groups operating inside the country. The confluence of these factors not only increases the potential for a nuclear escalation between Pakistan and its regional rival, India, but perhaps the even more terrifying scenario that a terrorist group will acquire fissile material, or an intact weapon, from Pakistan's burgeoning stockpiles. Both of these risks are unacceptable. The United States can and must take concrete steps to reduce the risks posed by Pakistan's unique combination of instability, extremism, and nuclear weapons…
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, United States, China, Iran, North Korea, and Syria

12. From Tehran to Khartoum: Thirty-Five Years As An American Diplomat

Author:
Joseph D. Stafford III
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
GJIA: What has been your favorite part about being a career Foreign Service Officer, and why? Stafford: I think my favorite part has been having the opportunity to live and work overseas, in other cultures, and to work on issues of importance to the United States and our international relations. The assignments in Washington have also been interesting but, in my mind, the most stimulating and enjoyable part of my Foreign Service career has been the chance to work overseas and meet ordinary citizens and members of civil society across the world, and to represent the US government.
Political Geography:
United States and America

13. On Leadership and American Power: A Discussion about the Role of Leadership in U.S. Foreign Policy

Author:
Joseph S. Nye Jr.
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
On 26 March 2013, former Dean of the Harvard Kennedy School Joseph S. Nye led a seminar on presidents and the creation of the American era at Georgetown University's Mortara Center for International Studies. Professor Nye discussed about to what extent leadership mattered in establishing the United States as the dominant country in the twentieth century, and what lessons can be drawn for leadership and U.S. foreign policy in the twenty-first century. The Journal sat down with Professor Nye after the event to hear more about his views on the role of leadership in shaping and promoting U.S. foreign policy.
Topic:
International Organization
Political Geography:
United States and America

14. The Role of Syria in Israeli-Turkish Relations

Author:
Dennis Ross and Moran Stern
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
This article argues that, since the end of the Cold War, developments in or associated with Syria have proved instrumental in determining Israeli-Turkish relations, for better and worse. Syria borders both Israel and Turkey. Not surprisingly, its geographic location, regional strategic conduct, relations with Israel's and Turkey's regional rivals, military capabilities and, more recently, the implications of its civil war have affected both Israel and Turkey, and their relationship with each other. While strategic cooperation between Turkey and Israel reached a high point in the 1990s, and then soured and largely dissipated over the last several years, Syria's civil war has posed a new set of challenges and opportunities for renewed Israeli-Turkish ties. Indeed, shared interests on Syria may propel new possibilities for cooperation between Turkey and Israel on security, economic and humanitarian issues. Through the historical analysis presented in this article, the authors attempt to explain the evolution of Israeli- Turkish relations through the prism of Syria. Understanding the historical background provided herein is relevant for contemporary analyses aimed at finding new ways to renew Israeli-Turkish strategic cooperation and assist in securing a stable post-war Syria.
Topic:
Cold War
Political Geography:
Turkey, Israel, and Syria

15. The Future Role of the Chinese Middle Class

Author:
Cheng Li and Ryan McElvee
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
When the Rolex store in the swanky Sanlitun shopping district of Beijing shut its doors earlier this year, sunk by lackluster sales, it was a sign that the government frugality campaign launched in December by the new Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping had begun to take effect. Similarly, after Xi described the ideal banquet to consist of “four dishes and a soup,” upscale Beijing restaurants in January saw their revenues decline by 35 percent from the previous year. Not only do these instantaneous changes in habit among Beijing's financially well-off upper class reflect the power behind Xi's bully pulpit, but they also point to the irony that has emerged at the highest levels of Chinese policymaking. As China's leaders advocate for increased domestic consumption to stimulate the economy, the luxury goods market has taken a hit as leaders are pushed to avoid ostentation. These two policy shifts may, on the surface, seem contradictory, but they are part of a larger push to placate a middle class that has emerged as a core constituency with its own unique needs and desires. As China's growth model shifts from an export-based model to a domestic consumption- based model, the middle class, more than any other group, holds the keys to the governance and prosperity of the country. Just as other countries are watching to see how this transition unfolds for geopolitical reasons, companies and banks abroad are also closely observing the rise of the Chinese middle class, knowing that its purchasing power will reshape the global economy. Hampering the transition to consumption-based growth, however, are significant negative feelings among the middle class. The Chinese Ministry of Health revealed in 2011 that the majority of Chinese professionals—51 percent—showed signs of depression. Such widespread depression likely stems from the extreme socioeconomic pressures in Chinese society, including skyrocketing housing prices, environ- mental degradation, health scares, and official corruption, all of which have tainted the public's confidence in the government and the country's future. Middle class grievances over government policy have become increasingly evident, partly because the expansion of the middle class has slowed and economic disparity has increased. Disillusionment over the CCP leadership during the past decade is arguably most salient among the members of the middle class who often complain that they, rather than the upper class, have shouldered most of the burden of former President Hu Jintao's harmonious society policies targeting assistance for vulnerable socio-economic groups. The high unemployment rate among recent college graduates, who usually come from middle-class families and are potentially future members of the middle class, should alert the Chinese government. To express their displeasure, the middle class often turns to organizing “mass incidents” (protests involving more than 100 participants), more than 100,000 of which occur each year according to official estimates. Xi Jinping apparently understands the link between these manifestations of public pessimism and CCP authority, and has sought to make very public—albeit basic—improvements to please the country's middle class. The current political discourse in China reveals that the government recognizes the importance of addressing the needs of the middle class. After all, the party must do so to survive. As the party turned to the simultaneous implementation of a frugality campaign and policies to increase domestic consumption, the implications were clear: the party has the political will to change and motivate the middle class to become the optimistic consumers they have the potential to become. Indeed, only when middle class consumption reaches its potential and when middle class interest in public health, rule of law, and freedom of speech is institutionally protected will Xi Jinping's “Chinese Dream” of national rejuvenation truly become a reality. This article presents the distinctive characteristics of the middle class, its multifaceted interests, and its political demands, arguing that the new administration faces a critical balancing act as it seeks to implement a sustainable consumption-based growth model.
Political Geography:
China

16. Dis-united Kingdoms? What Lies Behind Scotland's Referendum for Independence

Author:
Roger Mason
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
On 18 September 2014, the people of Scotland will decide whether to remain within the United Kingdom or to secede from a 400-year-long union with England and form an independent state. It is harder to predict the outcome of the referendum than it is to explain what lies behind it. Before examining its immediate context, therefore, this article surveys the history of Anglo-Scottish relations and reveals some of the historical tensions which have led to the most significant constitutional crisis that the UK has faced since the creation of the Republic of Ireland in 1922. Borrowing from the Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau's memorable description of his country's relationship with the United States, Scots often describe their country's relations with England as like sleeping with an elephant. For Scotland, as for Canada, occupying the same bed as a much larger partner is a challenging experience. The size of that challenge can be illustrated demographically: England has a population ten times larger than Scotland's. More precisely, of the total population of the United Kingdom, 83.9 percent (53 million) live in England and 8.4 percent (5.3 million) in Scotland, the rest living in Wales 4.8 percent (3 million) and Northern Ireland 2.9 percent (2 million). In terms of population, England dwarfs all three of its smaller partners put together
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Canada, England, and Scotland

17. La Policía Communitaria: Self-Defense Groups in Mexico: The Aftermath of a Poorly Designed Policy

Author:
Mauricio Mering and Jaime Hernandez Colorado
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
On 4 January 2013, in the Mexican state of Guerrero, armed men calling themselves the “Ayutla de Los Libres Community Police Force” took self-defense into their own hands, sensing the inability of their government security forces to crack down on the violence of organized crime. In a total of nine states, the press has since documented additional community self-defense groups that have risen in response to the insecurity in Mexico, subsequently posing a challenge to the new government. This article examines the formation of community self-defense groups in light of the failures of the security policy implemented during the Felipe Calderón administration. This security policy resulted in the fragmentation of organized crime cartels and an increase in violence triggered by the diversification of criminal activities, leaving a trail of death, corruption, and human rights violations. The rise of these self-defense groups lends credit to the idea that vigilantes themselves can serve as an antidote to insecurity, particularly in rural communities. Across Mexico, groups seeking justice by their own hands have experienced widespread legitimacy, as exemplified by Javier Sicilia, who led the Movement for Peace with Justice and Dignity and demanded justice for the victims of Calderón's security policy; and Isabel Miranda, who became a Mexico City government PAN candidate in the 2012 elections after singlehandedly seeking and delivering her son's kidnappers to the authorities. These are just two cases of civilians who were victimized by organized crime and who therefore had to use every means necessary to mobilize society, highlighting the ineffective Mexican police force and the nation's judicial system. The leitmotif of urban social movements seeking for justice is not the same as that of the community police – but both are seeking justice and security because official security agencies have failed. Community self-defense groups are security corps composed by citizens working in their specific regions according to traditional rules and often recovering indigenous customs. These groups base their efforts upon civil society participation, solidarity, and other values that survive in rural Mexico, such as family relations, friendship, and social trust among the inhabitants of a town or region. It is important to state that these values as the basis of self-defense groups remain because members of these groups are members of the community too. The expansion of community groups is both old and new – these groups integrate romantic notions of justice with the more modern conception that society must participate in the fight against organized crime. These two opposing dimensions are harmonized in the wake of an ineffective security policy, forcing society to reach beyond public protest so as to organize community police groups…
Topic:
Corruption and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Mexico

18. The Technologist's Dilemma: Ethical Challenges of Using Crowdsourcing Technology in Conflict and Disaster-Affected Regions

Author:
Charles Martin-Shields
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
The growth of mobile phone technology and Internet access globally has affected peoples' lives in various ways. For the field of governance and conflict management, this has meant unprecedented levels of information sharing from within conflict and crisis zones. As Internet access has expanded across Africa, entities like Kenya's Ushahidi—which build digital maps to publicly display real-time SMS text messages and social media feeds geographically—have been changing the way that citizens share their experiences of violence as they are happening. Probably the most important of these technologies—mobile phones— have expanded exponentially across the developing world; many countries in Africa, Asia and the Pacific have mobile phone market saturation rates of over 100 percent. The international development community has been actively developing tools and methods for using mobile phones for outreach and project monitoring for years; the governance and conflict management fields are beginning to find effective ways to use mobile phones and SMS text messaging. While there has been excitement about the way these technologies can improve the work of conflict resolution and governance professionals, less popular attention has been paid to the unique risks and ethical challenges associated with using these tools in highly unstable political and social environments such as conflict zones. In these types of situations, crowdsourcing raises ethical issues of privacy, transparency of purpose and data protection. However, having secure technical data collection and storage procedures are not sufficient because most security failures are due to human error. To ethically run a crowdsourcing program in a conflict or disaster-affected environment, organizations need to ensure that their staffs and the “crowd” participating in the project have been trained to use the technologies and assess the unique risks of the digital information environment. This article will review the literature on digital information regulation, explore how the crisis response and crowdsourcing fields have evolved their data protection procedures and review the current state of practice for humanitarian crowdsourcing ethics and data security
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

19. Afghanistan Transition: Building the Foundations for Future Growth and Stability

Author:
Claudia Nassif
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Afghanistan is facing uncertain times ahead. The withdrawal of most international military troops by 2014 will affect the country far beyond the hand-over of all security responsibilities. The operations of international troops were supported not just by a high level of military but also civilian aid that financed reconstruction efforts and the provision of public services. This has fueled fears that the security transition will also be followed by a reduction of aid with potentially devastating repercussions on Afghanistan's economy. Based on analytical work that the World Bank conducted over the past two years, this article argues that while the transition process carries a number of risks for the country's economic outlook and the sustainability of the state, these risks can be managed to ensure continued growth and development. In fact, the months leading up to the April 2014 presidential elections will be critical for the implementation of policy reforms that could move Afghanistan towards a more sustainable growth trajectory… (purchase article…)
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

20. The Link Between Oil Prices and the U.S. Macroeconomy

Author:
Blake Clayton
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
For the United States and other net importers of oil, the last two years have the dubious distinction of featuring the highest average annual crude oil prices, in both real and nominal terms, since the beginnings of the modern oil industry in the 1860s. Such elevated prices for oil, marked by extreme volatility at times, pose risks to the still-anemic U.S. and global economies, though they have proven a boon to the domestic oil industry and the regions of the country where oil and gas are produced. Still, the U.S. economy is much less affected by changes in oil prices today than it was in the 1970s, for instance, when the first modern oil crises wreaked havoc on the national economy. Understanding how oil prices affect the economy of the United States is crucial to sensible domestic policymaking. The consequences of today's relatively high oil prices, for instance, vary tremendously across the country's geographic regions, economic sectors, and population segments. Pinpointing the exact dynamics at play, as well as measuring their magnitudes, is difficult to do with precision. But several decades of research have yielded critical insights. These findings can help inform policy decisions in realms as diverse as economic sanctions, strategic petroleum reserve releases, and gasoline taxes, limiting any negative implications their effects on oil prices might cause to the broader economy and maximizing their potential benefits
Topic:
Oil
Political Geography:
United States

21. How is NATO Dealing with Emerging Security Challenges?

Author:
Jamie Shea
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
For most of human history, states have seen their primary role in the field of security as the defence of their borders and their territories against the predations of other states. Though populations faced other threats, such as famine, major epidemics or starvation, governments felt no need to intervene unless there was an immediate threat to the state or social order. Today, states have taken on the responsibility to cope with a much broader spectrum of threats because of voters' increased expectations of protection and the impact of globalization, which has made states much more vulnerable to non-traditional security threats. These can be easily transmitted across borders and can originate virtually everywhere: local and international terrorism, cyber threats to public and private networks, the spread of diseases and pandemics, vulnerabilities to critical infrastructure and energy grids, dependency on globalized supply chains, extreme weather conditions, uncontrolled immigration, organized criminal networks, and the proliferation of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) devices with greater use of delivery vehicles such as missiles. The national security strategies of most NATO countries today prioritize these non-traditional threats before the more traditional threats from rising and rival powers or collapsing states. Although most of these non-traditional threats have existed for some time, NATO has only recently focused its attention on them. However, the Alliance is still associated with more classical military operations that take place outside its territory and emphasize flexible and deployable forces capable of cooperating with non-governmental organizations (NGOs), election observers, police trainers and democratic institution builders. The “Responsibility to Protect” is partly responsible for NATO's shift away from the defence of states to the defence of populations. Simultaneously, NATO linked its interventions to traditional security interests. Thus, despite the frequent portrayal of interventions as part and parcel of a new international morality to uphold human rights in foreign lands, in reality NATO has not strayed far from its traditional focus on the security of its member states. Given this focus on defending and protecting interests, NATO has recently had to consider the new spectrum of threats which are not classically military in nature but which will undoubtedly be frequent sources of disruption in the years ahead. Moreover, these threats can originate just as easily from within our borders as from outside. Malicious individuals may easily gain access to modern technologies (int. al. malware, drones, robotics and bioengineering), giving them the disruptive power that used to be the preserve of states. We could live in a future in which anyone could be targeted, anywhere, and at any time. These non-conventional threats cannot be deterred by the threat of military retaliation in the way that nuclear weapons could maintain a balance of power and peace, albeit uneasy, throughout the Cold War. Cyber attacks, for instance, have been a daily occurrence almost everywhere and most can still be carried out with relative impunity. The gain from espionage or financial crime greatly outweighs the risk of being caught or even the current legal penalties. Thus there is yet no significant incentives for the attackers to desist other than that they may damage and degrade information and communications infrastructure on which they also depend. It would be good if this “deterrence through interdependence” would eventually take hold, but we are clearly still a long way from it
Topic:
Security, NATO, and History

22. The Killing Zone

Author:
John McNeil
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Stephen Rabe is an academic historian with an ax to grind, and he grinds it well. He begins this book by explaining that he is under no illusions about the character of the Soviet Union during the Cold War. He visited former KGB prisons in Latvia, befriended Czechs persecuted for showing insufficient enthusiasm for the Red Army invasion of Prague in 1968, and educated himself about the many nefarious aspects of the Soviet empire in Eastern Europe. But his point here is to draw attention to the nasty Cold War conduct of the United States in its own backyard, Latin America. Rabe finds American Cold War triumphalism objectionable in general and specifically because it overlooks the election-rigging, coups d'état, and massacres to which the U.S. government contributed in Latin America. He does not claim that these deeds were equally as evil as those perpetrated by the Kremlin. But he vigorously argues that they were unnecessary in every sense and did nothing to advance the American cause in the Cold War. He maintains that U.S. Cold War policy in Latin America “helped perpetuate and spread violence, poverty, and despair within the region.” The many U.S. interventions – to use a gentle term – in Cold War Latin America were first presented [within the bureaucratic and political organs of the U.S. government] as helpful or even necessary measures to secure the American hemisphere from communist or Soviet power. When they were not kept secret, the interventions were then marketed to the American public with the same Cold War raison d'état. Rabe argues that these efforts at justification were at best based on ignorance and at worst on calculated dishonesty. U.S. officials consistently overestimated, and sometimes deliberately exaggerated, Soviet activities in Latin America, which were modest indeed compared to Soviet engagements in other world regions. Moreover, the ill-advised U.S. interventions alienated Latin American populations and contributed to anti-American popular and political sentiment throughout the region. To borrow a phrase from Talleyrand, the interventions were worse than crimes, they were blunders
Topic:
Cold War
Political Geography:
United States and Latin America

23. Understanding Iran

Author:
John McNeil
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
William Polk, born in 1929, is one of the more successful scholar-diplomats in American life. He has written more than a dozen books, mainly on the modern Arab world, some for trade publishers and some for university presses. He taught Middle East and Islamic history at Harvard and the University of Chicago. He also served in the Kennedy and Johnson administrations, on the State Department's Policy Planning staff and later as an adviser to McGeorge Bundy, President Johnson's National Security Adviser, charged with handling the aftermath of 1967's Six-Day War between Israel and its Arab neighbors. His latest book is his first on Iran. He has visited the country from time to time since 1956, and in the 1960s met the Shah, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi and some of the Iranian political elite. Aware of the stalemate that bedevils U.S.-Iranian relations, and frustrated by what he sees as the narrowness of war-game exercises and the field of international relations, Polk wrote this book “to bring forward what war games omit: in short, what it means when we speak of Iran and Iranians.” He feels American policy-makers pay insufficient heed to the history and culture of Iran and Iranians, and are thereby baffled by what seems to them illogical behavior. If they had adequate grounding in things Iranian, he believes, they would better understand Iran, its government, its policies, and its people. Adequate grounding, in Polk's view, extends back 2,500 years. He maintains that even if the majority of Iranians alive have scant knowledge of the Achaemenid dynasty they are nonetheless influenced by it. Indeed, he writes, “I am certain that the inhabitants of Iran today are largely governed by their past regardless of whether they consciously remember it.” He appeals to Carl Jung's notion of “collective unconscious” and Jean-Jacques Rousseau's “social contract” to make his case.
Topic:
Islam
Political Geography:
America, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Chicago

24. Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States and the World

Author:
Pamela Sodhy
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
This book, a compilation of Lee Kuan Yew's views and in-sights on foreign policy matters, is unique in that its contents are pulled from interviews with Lee and from his speeches and writings. The compilation is the work of three scholars: Graham Allison, the Douglas Dillion Professor of Government and the Director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School; Robert D. Blackwill, the Henry Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations; and Ali Wyne, a researcher at Harvard's Belfer Center. They use a question and answer format, starting each chapter with a list of specific questions and then providing Lee's answers. Their aim, as stated in the Preface, is “not to look back on the past 50 years, remarkable as Lee's contributions to them have been. Rather our focus is the future and the specific challenges that the United States will face during the next quarter century.” To them, Lee's answers are meant to be “of value not only to those shaping U.S. foreign policy, but also to leaders of businesses and civil society in the United States.” The book spans Lee's insights over a half century, covering different periods: as Prime Minister of Singapore; Senior Minister under his successor, Goh Chok Tong; Minister Mentor under his son, Lee Hsien Loong; and, since 2011, as Senior Advisor and Emeritus Senior Minister. In terms of content, the book is very comprehensive as it deals with Lee's views on numerous foreign policy topics. As for the book's organization, its first part is unusual in that a Foreword, by former U.S. Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger, is followed by a short section with a title in the form of a question: “Who is Lee Kuan Yew?” Next is another short section, also with a question, this time entitled “When Lee Kuan Yew Talks, Who Listens?” After that is the Preface, followed by ten chapters, with the first eight providing Lee's views about the future
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States and China

25. The Decline and Fall of the United States Information Agency

Author:
Juliet Antunes Sablosky
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
To the second volume of his history of the U. S. Information Agency, Nicholas Cull brings a similarly skillful survey of the institution and the role it played in furthering American foreign policy goals. This time he concentrates on the changes wrought by the end of the Cold War and the impact they had on the Agency, its programs, and its people. Throughout the book major attention is given to the Voice of America and to the policy advocacy aspects of USIA's work. Professor Cull gives less attention to the other three “core components” of public diplomacy, which he identifies as listening, cultural diplomacy, and exchange diplomacy. This meticulously documented book, based on archival research, private papers, and interviews, helps fill a long-standing gap in the literature and sets the stage for further research on American public diplomacy. It will be much appreciated by those teaching and researching the public diplomacy dimension of international relations. The Decline and Fall of the U.S. Information Agency complements nicely a number of books written over the years by practitioners of public diplomacy that are important for the understanding they provide of its possibilities and constraints, as well as for the vivid pictures they paint of how it was carried out overseas. But the Cull book provides a different perspective, coming from an established academic observer and concentrating on the domestic side of policy-making. While primarily of interest to the foreign policy and public diplomacy communities, students and researchers of public policy will find grist for their mills here as well. The political machinations that accompanied the death of the USIA as an independent agency and its integration (or re-integration, if one considers its early history) into the Department of State make for lively reading and provide an excellent case study
Topic:
History
Political Geography:
United States and America

26. Global Women's Issues

Author:
Melanne Verveer
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
GJIA: What were the challenges implicit in becoming the first U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for Global Women's Issues? Did the nature of your role change over time?
Political Geography:
United States

27. Letter from the Editors

Author:
William Handel and Nora McGann
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
The international system and the individual nation states that comprise it face crucial decisions regarding both the means and methods employed to supply energy to the globe's seven billion human inhabitants. Indeed, there are few issues of public policy with as far-reaching implications as those related to energy production, consumption, distribution, and conservation. The extent to which fluctuations in price and supply of this diverse group of resources can have a dramatic impact upon the industry and livelihood of the entire global population cannot be overstated.

28. Challenges and Opportunities: Aviation Emissions and the European Cap Trade System

Author:
Joshua Meltzer
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
On January 1, 2012, the European Union extended its cap and trade system, the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), to include CO2 emissions from all airlines arriving in and departing from EU airspace. The EU has claimed that this unilateral action was in response to the slow progress towards reaching a global deal. However, the EU remains committed to reaching a global solution to the problem of aviation emissions and hopes that including international aviation in the ETS will spur action. These additions to the ETS led the EU to take positions on a number of important policy issues that remain unresolved in the international climate change negotiations. These include issues such as how to attribute CO2 emissions from aviation to countries and how to operationalize the environmental principle of common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) – the notion that developed countries will do more to reduce their CO2 emissions than developing countries. Moreover, as many of these issues are also applicable to the broader UN climate change negotiations, the success or failure of the ETS approach to international aviation could affect progress in the wider climate change negotiations. This article outlines how the EU has designed its system to address these challenges. It also provides an overview of the challenges to reaching a global deal on regulating CO2 emissions from international aviation. The final part of the paper considers the current state of international negotiations over aviation emissions and suggests pathways forward.
Topic:
Climate Change
Political Geography:
Europe

29. Germany's Energiewende: The Prospects of a Grand-Scale Project

Author:
Rainer Baake
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Imagine a mid-sized country. Its population, area, and energy consumption make it a flyweight compared to the emerging giants of China and India. Unlike Russia or Brazil, it possesses virtually no fossil fuels of its own – apart from disastrously dirty lignite and some expensive-to-extract hard coal. Furthermore, this country is located in Europe, a continent that has become synonymous with economic crisis and sluggish growth. Why do the energy policies of such a country – namely Germany – matter? The reason is in its dedication to systematically transform its energy system. It is the first major industrial country to seriously consider the challenge of overcoming the entire range of problems associated with fossil and nuclear fuels – from emissions to cost, from nuclear proliferation to nuclear waste, from environmental devastation to health impacts. If Germany, despite medium irradiation levels, limited land to grow biomass, and average wind and water resources, succeeds in transforming the energy system to renewable sources while maintaining system reliability and keeping an eye on cost, then every other country in the world will be able to follow on that track, too. And the challenges entailed for these countries will be significantly lower.
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, Brazil, and Germany

30. Power Shift: Smart Grid Transforms Electric Power for the 21st Century

Author:
Matthew Futch
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
For more than a century, the electric power industry has followed a model that produces and distributes electricity to, ultimately, passive consumers. The power system was originally configured for one-way flow from a concentrated source (the generating facility) to end-users on the other side of the meter. The system is optimized primarily for reliability, and has successfully supported global economic and social development. Dr. Kandeh Yumkella, chairman of the UN-Energy, a United Nations body created for promoting sustainable energy programs, summarized the relationship well, alluding to the "strong linkage between energy poverty and income poverty." With smarter energy networks nation states may now accelerate economic development through cleaner, more reliable, and consumer-friendly technologies. Global deployment of smart grid technology is fundamentally changing the one-way, "produce and distribute" model into a more dynamic "collaborate, manage, and use" model. The U.S. Department of Energy describes smart grid as "a class of technology people are using to bring utility electricity delivery systems into the 21st century, using computer-based remote control and automation. These systems are made possible by two-way communication technology and computer processing that has been put to use over the past few decades to transform how other industries operate." The grid transformation allows areas without significant twentieth century grid infrastructure to implement a twenty-first century energy network specifically designed to include decentralized renewable generation and intelligently coupled micro grids. This article includes a broad set of technologies in the definition of a smart grid: 1. Any and all technologies that allow for the exchange of information between the power source and end user (e.g. smart meters) 2. Technologies that enable control, management, and coordination of intermittent generation sources (e.g. grid sensors and forecasting analytics) 3. Distributed generation sources (e.g. smaller-scale generation and distributed renewables) The remainder of the article looks at the potential of these technologies to modify how we think about electricity, and the power it provides to nations and their citizens.
Topic:
United Nations

31. Investment Power in Africa: Where from and where to?

Author:
Anton Eberhard and Katharine Nawaal Gratwick
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Economic and social development depends critically on infrastructure, for which electricity may be among the most important inputs. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has among the lowest rates of electricity access in the world - less than 30 percent. Furthermore, excluding South Africa, SSA is the only region for which per capita consumption of electricity is falling. The total installed capacity in the region amounts to less than South Korea's, and this limited supply is costly and unpredictable, imposing heavy tolls on social and economic development. It has been estimated that about 7,000 megawatts (MW) need to be added each year (2005-2015) to meet suppressed demand and provide additional capacity for electrification expansion. Such an investment would cost approximately $27 billion per year. Presently, funding to the electricity sector (for capital expenditure) is estimated at just $4.6 billion a year; hence, an annual funding gap of more than $20 billion exists. Public sources - utility income and fiscal transfers - contribute only about one-half of current capital investments, highlighting the urgent need for increased private investment, including public-private partnerships. Across Sub-Saharan Africa, the push towards private investment in electrical generation dates to the early 1990s, but the journey has not been smooth. Significant lessons may be identified, including: understanding the limited pool of investments, together with the importance of public stakeholders in equity and debt alike; the increasing application of partial risk guarantees (PRGs) to mobilize finance; and the emergence of more non-OECD partners. We note a number of success stories, including Kenya, South Africa and (potentially) Nigeria, whose policy innovations have replication potential in other Sub-Saharan African countries and beyond.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, South Korea, South Africa, and Nigeria

32. The Human Element: Nuclear Power Development in the Middle East

Author:
Kevin Massy and John Banks
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Most discussions on nuclear power in the Middle East in recent years have focused predominantly on Iran's suspected weapons program. However, the region is also home to another major nuclear-related trend: it is likely to play host to the first new nuclear energy states of the twenty-first century. While many countries in the broader Middle East have expressed interest in civil nuclear power, three–the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkey, and Jordan–have set firm tar- gets for its implementation by the end of this decade. If they are to reach these ambitious goals and if they are to develop and deploy safe, secure, and sustainable civil nuclear power programs, these countries will have to overcome a range of technical, institutional, and, most importantly, human-resource related challenges. Of the countries in the region, the UAE is by far the most advanced in the development of its program. Having made public its interest in civil nuclear power in a white paper in 2008, the country purchased four nuclear reactors the following year from a South Korean consortium and is aiming to have its first reactor connected to the grid in 2017, an extremely ambitious time frame for a newcomer nuclear energy state. Turkey has a long history of attempting to implement civil nuclear power, and its latest agreement with Russia for the provision of four reactors at Akkuyu on the Mediterranean coast is, by some counts, its sixth attempt at a commercial-scale program. However, there is good reason to believe that this time will be different for Ankara; the terms provided by Rosatom– the Russian state-controlled nuclear company that will finance, build, and operate the project–shield Turkey from a large amount of financial–if not operational–risk, and the Akkuyu project is due to be operational by 2020. Like Turkey, Jordan has a public goal of de- ploying its first nuclear reactor by the end of the decade. Having reduced its shortlist of nuclear vendors to two bidders (Rosatom and a French-Japanese consortium led by Areva and Mitsubishi), the Jordanian Atomic Energy Commission plans to make its final decision in time to start construction of its first plant by the end of 2013.
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Middle East, South Korea, Jordan, and United Arab Emirates

33. Conflicts, Oil Prices, and International Financial Stability

Author:
Hossein Askari
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Over the last 100 years, crude oil has been priced between $10 and $30 per barrel (adjusted for inflation, in 2010 U.S. dollars), with the exception of two periods: 1973-1983 and 2001-2011.1 These two periods were both marked by conflicts, upheavals, and disruptions in the Middle East. The resulting oil price shocks were dramatic and led to large swings in current account balances, as oil producers rapidly acquired cash for their increasingly valuable resources. Large current account surpluses signify net annual savings in a country's transactions with the rest of the world, and large imbalances put stress on the international financial and banking system. These massive surpluses and corresponding deficits played a leading role in the developing-world debt crisis of the 1980s and may have a contributing factor to the global financial crisis of the late 2000s. In this paper, we begin by taking a brief look at the factors affecting oil prices, a subject that is often the victim of popular misconceptions. Then, we turn to a significant result of higher prices, large swings in current account balances, and potential financial crises. We conclude by proposing a change in U.S. and international policies to contain conflicts, reduce violent swings in oil prices, better manage and recycle the current account surpluses of oil exporters, and reduce the likelihood of recurring and severe financial crises.
Topic:
Oil
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

34. Sovereign Energy Independence: Properly Understood and Effectively Achieved in the 21st Century

Author:
Spencer Abraham and Mark P. Mills
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Energy, like food, is a foundational requirement for civiliza- tion. The World Economic Forum's 2012 Energy Vision Update begins with the observation: “Energy is the lifeblood of the global economy – a crucial input to nearly all of the goods and services of the modern world.” We disagree with the Forum in one respect. Energy is crucial not to “nearly all” but in fact to all goods and services. Ensuring the availability of an economically sustainable and secure energy supply is one of the primary responsibilities of sovereign governments. Energy independence, properly understood, is a central component in achieving both supply and economic security. The policy options for pursuing “independence” depend on the realities of the day. In this paper we will argue that a clear understanding of the landscape is more important than clever policies, and that, in any case, there are precious few options in regards to the latter. We begin by noting that two central features of the global energy landscape are the same now as they have been for decades, even centuries. These are the underlying character of both geopolitics and geophysics. The animating forces in geopolitics have been the same for as long as there have been nation states. National goals, political systems, and social objectives vary widely, and always have. Differences can lead to both unintentional and intentional conflicts. Conflicts are ultimately resolved using the same three tools since time immemorial: business arrangements of mutual convenience, diplomacy, or war. Put simply, people have not changed. Similarly, underlying geophysical realities of the planet remain constant. The asymmetric distribution of easily accessible high-grade resources is incontestably a fact that creates opportunities for economic or geopolitical advantage, or conflict.
Topic:
Economics

35. The Gulf States and U.S. Policy: How Strongly to Push Reform?

Author:
David Galbraith
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
As revolution swept across the Arab world beginning in early 2011, the monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) appeared largely immune. In Bahrain, the only GCC country where mass protests did erupt, the government suppressed them violently with the political and military support of neighboring GCC countries. This crackdown was a leading exhibit in what observers termed the “counterrevolution.” Yet to think of the Gulf states as immune to unrest ignores the internal challenges that have been inspired by the Arab Spring over the past two years. Although these challenges differed from country to country, three trends broadly hold: they represent an intensification of trends that pre-dated the Arab Spring; except in Bahrain, they have not evolved into broad-based movements that question regime legitimacy; and no regime has chosen to open up meaningful new institutional political space in response. The United States has been criticized for hypocrisy in the wake of the Arab uprisings because it maintains strong alliances with the Gulf monarchies even as it supports democratic transitions elsewhere. However, the United States should not push strongly for systemic political reform across these countries in the absence of broad social mobilization. A more targeted and softer approach, adjusted to the internal dynamics in each country, is the right course.
Political Geography:
United States, Arabia, and Bahrain

36. Clash of Elites: What Lies Behind the Defamation Debates

Author:
Mark P. Lagon and Ryan Kaminski
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Since Samuel Huntington's 1993 article warning of inter-civilizational conflict, pundits and policymakers alike have been quick to forecast a so-called “clash of civilizations.” This has become especially common following 9/11, with warnings of a unitary Islam pitted against a unified West. Yet a clear-eyed assessment reveals that the West includes Muslim-majority regions and the often fractious United Nations; this divisive vision is as incorrect as it is unhelpful. In his address to the UN General Assembly in September 2012, President Barack Obama argued that freedom of speech and tolerance transcends civilizational, cultural, and religious fault lines. “Together, we must work towards a world where we are strengthened by our differences and not defined by them. That is what America embodies, that's the vision we will support,” declared Obama. In direct opposition to those favoring limitations on the freedom of expression or the imposition of blasphemy charges, the president noted, “The strongest weapon against hateful speech is not repression, it is more speech – the voices of tolerance that rally against bigotry and blasphemy and lift up the values of understanding and mutual respect.” Setting the stage for Obama's remarks was what can roughly be termed as a global panic attack with peaceful, semi-violent, and violent protests about a video spreading from Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. In the face of the unmistakable energy and vigor associated with protests, however, many were left confused how a shabbily crafted video, Innocence of Muslims, with a skeletal budget, and miniscule opening audience to match, could instigate such a worldwide conflagration.
Topic:
United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa, America, Europe, Middle East, and Asia

37. The Turkish-Kurdish Peace Progress

Author:
Michael M. Gunter
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
During the summer and fall of 2009, the continuing and often violent Kurdish problem in Turkey seemed on the verge of a solution when the ruling Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi (Justice and Development Party) or AK Party (AKP) government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Abdullah Gul announced a Kurdish Opening. Gul declared that "the biggest problem of Turkey is the Kurdish question" and that "there is an opportunity [to solve it] and it should not be missed."Erdogan asked: "If Turkey had not spent its energy, budget, peace and young people on [combating] terrorism, if Turkey had not spent the last twenty-five years in conflict, where would we be today?" Even the insurgent Partiya Karkaren Kurdistan (PKK) or Kurdistan Workers Party, still led by its imprisoned leader Abdullah Ocalan, briefly took Turkey's Kurdish Opening seriously. For a fleeting moment optimism ran rampant. That optimism, however, would ultimately go unfulfilled. What happened? The Kurdish Opening failed to live up to expectations because of roadblocks it encountered before it had a chance to get off the ground. Decades-old resistance to decentralization and an unwillingness to negotiate seriously with the PKK additionally worked to undermine the stated goals of the Kurdish Opening. This article will provide historical background to the recent efforts as well as a timeline of the government's initiatives and the Kurdish response regarding the Kurdish Opening. The question of why the Opening has failed to date will be examined. Recent developments including the civil war in Syria, which suggest that some possibility for progress on the Kurdish question remains, will also be discussed. Finally, the article puts forth recommendations to facilitate progress on finding a political settlement between the Turkish government and the PKK.
Topic:
Development and Government
Political Geography:
Turkey, Syria, and Kurdistan

38. Defending with Declining Means

Author:
Thomas X. Hammes
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Even as America continues its withdrawal from Afghanistan, a crucial problem is emerging for the U.S. defense establishment. It must meet an increasing variety of threats with decreasing resources. Despite the fervent wishes of those who seek to refocus on state versus state war, the spectrum of conflict continues to expand. Further, defying the Pentagon's best efforts to fight short, decisive wars, today's wars are often ambiguous, indecisive, and protracted. While the demands increase, defense resources are being squeezed by three major factors. First, and most obvious, are the looming cuts in the defense budget. Second, is the inability of the Department of Defense (DoD) to control the cost of new weapons systems. Third, is the near doubling of military personnel costs since 2001. Balancing the demands of the expanding spectrum of war with the decline in defense resources represents the fundamental issue for defense planners. To succeed, the Pentagon cannot continue to operate as it has over the last two decades. This article will take a brief look at the expanding spec- trum of threats, as well as the concomitant budgetary pressures that face U.S. defense. It will then address the strate- gist's fundamental problem of achieving balance among ends, ways, and means. It will close with modest suggestions for how to match today's declining resources with expanding demands.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and America

39. Not on Blind Faith: The Risks of U.S. Defense Cuts

Author:
Travis Sharp
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Washington has failed to have a legitimate debate of the risks involved with budget cuts. This lack of sophisticated discourse about the strategic risks of defense cuts may lead American political leaders to make poor choices that imperil U.S. interests.
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Washington

40. The Absent Agriculturalist in International Affairs

Author:
A.R. Vasavi
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
At the high table of international policymaking, no agriculturist sits. Without presence, voice, or representation, a significant proportion of humanity remains uninvited to contribute to those very agendas where their livelihood, life, and future are planned.

41. Coal Mining in China: The Social Costs

Author:
Tim Wright
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
China's coal industry is central to the state's economic success. However, the industry has been the focus of major social problems-including corruption, work safety, and environmental damage-that need to be immediately addressed by the state.
Topic:
Corruption, Economics, and Environment

42. The Global Online Freedom Act

Author:
Ian Brown
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Global Online Freedom Act is one of the most comprehensive legislative attempts to protect online human rights. However, some civil society groups are concerned that certain controls could block the availability of tools useful for human rights activists in affected countries.
Topic:
Human Rights

43. Vietnam at a Crossroad and in the Cross Hairs

Author:
Robert A. Rogowsky
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Vietnam has experienced tremendous economic growth over the past two decades, but a convergence of three conditions—a slow global economy, a young and expanding population, and political tensions with China—presents a challenge to Southeast Asia's security.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
China, Vietnam, and Southeast Asia

44. India-Pakistan Trade: Opportunities and Constraints

Author:
Kishore C. Dash
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Increased bilateral trade can be a significant driver of peace between India and Pakistan. This is in stark contrast to the relative economic isolation that the two countries have pursued for so long.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Pakistan and India

45. Russian Arctic Resource Development and Related Policy Considerations

Author:
Vlad M. Kaczynski
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Russia remains increasingly concerned with Arctic development in terms of off-shore oil and gas exploitation, fisheries and tourism. In order to further economic and military development plans, the state should actively engage in foreign partnerships and emphasize environmental sustainability.
Topic:
Development
Political Geography:
Russia

46. Nukes, Lies, and International Organization

Author:
Douglas B. Shaw
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
A review of The Age of Deception by Mohamed ElBaradei.
Topic:
International Organization

47. Financial Reform, A View from the Trenches

Author:
Ingo Walter
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
A review of The Financial Crisis and the Free Market Cure by John A. Allison.
Topic:
Reform

48. Editor's Note

Author:
Sikander Kiani and Michael Brannagan
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Politics and Non State Actors
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Middle East, India, and Belgium

49. Introduction

Author:
Eric Langenbacher
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
The relationship between language and international affairs is crucial and operates on several levels. This issue's Forum investigates the intersection between language, culture, identity and politics.

50. The Arab Digital Vanguard: How a Decade of Blogging Contributed to a Year of Revolution

Author:
Jillian York
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
In 1991, just four years after Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali rose to power as president, Tunisia became the first country in the Arab world to connect to the Internet. The public had access by 1996, though its vast democratizing benefits were to be short-lived. That same year, the L'Agence Tunisienne d'Internet (Tunisian Internet Agency, or ATI) was established. Among its first mandates was the introduction of censorship. Over the course of the next decade the region began to trickle online, with Saudi Arabia and Syria amongst the last to connect. Swept up by the global technology bubble, in Cairo and Beirut, Amman and Abu Dhabi, entrepreneurs, seeing the communicative potential of the pre-Web 2.0 Internet, began developing email services, job-search sites, and perhaps most importantly, web forums. Such forums became sources of unreported news, discussion, social commentary, and political debate, paving the way for the region's future bloggers. In countries where political discussion was taboo and crossing red lines—such as discussion of the ruling family, or debates about Islam—resulted in persecution of journalists, web forums created new spaces, outside of society, where political discussion was relatively safe…
Topic:
Islam
Political Geography:
Saudi Arabia and Syria

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