Publishing Institution: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS) / Publication Year: 3 selected

1. De-escalation Efforts: What Tehran wants from a prisoner swap deal with Washington?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: US National Security Council Spokesperson Adrienne Waston, in a statement on August 10, 2023, affirmed that Iran has released from prison five Americans who were detained and has placed them on house arrest. US citizens Siamak Namazi, Morad Tahbaz, Emad Shargi, and two others were released from Tehran’s notorious Evin prison to house arrest. The US official described their release as “an encouraging step” and stressed that Washigton will continue efforts to bring them “all back home in the United States.”
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

2. Diplomacy of Neglect: Assessing the European Union’s engagement in the Sudanese Crisis

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The European Union aims to strengthen its involvement in the Sudanese crisis. This was recently evident when Brussels welcomed a delegation of Sudanese political leaders on July 27, 2023. This effort aims to establish an active European role in the endeavors to settle the Sudanese crisis.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Sanctions, European Union, Conflict, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Sudan

3. Cautious Pragmatism: What is thе potential outcome of Washington's approach to thе Nigеr crisis?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On August 8, 2023, US Sеcrеtary of Statе Antony Blinkеn announcеd that diplomacy is thе prеfеrrеd way of rеsolving thе crisis causеd by thе coup in Nigеr. Following thе coup on July 26, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan strongly condemned any effort to detain or subvert thе functioning of Nigеr's dеmocratically еlеctеd govеrnmеnt, led by President Mohamеd Bazoum. Thеsе statements reflect thе ambiguity of Washington's stance regarding thе crisis in Nigеr.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Counter-terrorism, Crisis Management, Coup, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Africa, Niger, and United States of America

4. Cluster Bombs: What is the potential impact of American weapons on Ukraine’s counteroffensive?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The US Department of Defense officially announced on July 7, 2023, that the US would provide cluster bombs to Ukraine as part of a new military assistance package to support Kyiv in its counteroffensive against Russia. Cluster munitions are weapons that consist of a container that opens in mid-air to scatter up to 600 explosive submunitions or bomblets over a wide area. Most of these weapons are known for their lack of precision guidance, meaning they are not individually directed toward specific targets. Estimates suggest that these weapons' failure rate (dud rate) during conflicts ranges from 10% to 40%, posing a significant risk to civilians, especially because they can explode later upon contact or movement.
Topic:: Weapons, Military Aid, Russia-Ukraine War, and Cluster Bombs
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

5. A Bid to Contain Pressure: What are the motives behind Iranian President's East Africa tour?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi went on a trip to Africa from July 11 to 13, 2023, during which he visited Kenya, Uganda, and Zimbabwe on invitations from the leaders of the three countries, President William Ruto, Yoweri Museveni and President Emmerson Mnangagwa, respectively. Raisi led a high-level delegation including First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Health Minister Behrouz Aghaei, and Minister of Agriculture Seyyed Javad Sadati Nejad, and several other high-ranking officials and businessmen.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Partnerships, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Uganda, Kenya, Iran, Middle East, Zimbabwe, and East Africa

6. Partnership Diversification: What are the implications of the sixth round of the Russia-GCC strategic dialogue?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Following a five-year hiatus, Russia and the Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC, held the sixth round of their strategic dialogue in Moscow on July 10, 2023, at a critical juncture. The meeting has several implications aligning with the Gulf’s endeavors that began in the wake of the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic and later took shape in the wake of the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Diversification, Dialogue, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Gulf Nations

7. A Surprising Shift: Is Somalia choosing Moscow over Washington?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Somali Foreign Minister Abshir Omar Jama made a surprise visit to Moscow on May 26, 2023, to meet with several Russian officials, including his counterpart Sergey Lavrov. His visit raised several questions regarding motives and implications, particularly in light of the Russian top diplomat’s statements about Russia’s readiness to supply Mogadishu with the necessary military equipment for its ongoing war against the terrorist group Al-Shabaab.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Engagement, Al-Shabaab, and Military Aid
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, Somalia, and United States of America

8. Existing Dispute: Does the new budget set the stage for a fresh phase of conflict in Iraq?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On 12 June, 2023, Iraq's Council of Representatives approved a three-year budget (2023-2025) of 198.9 trillion dinars (USD 153 billion), including the budget for Iraq's Kurdistan region. This came around three months after the government filed the draft budget, making it the largest in Iraqi history.
Topic:: Development, Oil, Budget, Domestic Politics, Public Spending, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)

9. Restraining Moscow: What are the repercussions of Wagner's rebellion for the Russo-Ukrainian war?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Yevgeny Prigozhin, the chief of the Russian private military contractor group Wagner, announced that his forces had crossed the Ukrainian border into the city of Rostov-on-Don in southern Russia, threatening to destroy anyone who would obstruct their path, including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu if necessary. In an official speech delivered on the morning of June 24, 2023, Russian President Putin confirmed that what had happened was a stab in the back, instructing the security and military forces to neutralize the "traitors," referring to Prigozhin himself. He called on Russian security to arrest Prigozhin on charges of inciting a civil war. Wagner issued a statement in response to Putin's speech, affirming that Putin had chosen the wrong path and that Russia would soon have a new leader. In an official speech delivered on the morning of June 24, 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that what had happened was a stab in the back, and instructed the security and military forces to neutralize the "traitors," referring to Prigozhin himself. He called on Russian security to arrest Prigozhin on charges of inciting a civil war. In response to Putin's speech, Wagner issued a statement affirming that Putin had chosen the wrong path and that Russia would soon have a new leader. The defection of Wagner and the involvement of its forces in the conflict have significant implications for the Russo-Ukrainian war. The actions of Wagner and the response from the Russian government signal internal divisions and potential shifts in power dynamics within Russia. The situation remains highly volatile, and the repercussions of these events on the ongoing war are yet to unfold fully.
Topic:: Wagner Group, Military, Russia-Ukraine War, and Yevgeny Prigozhin
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

10. Preliminary Talks: Can the talks in Zanzibar lead to an agreement between Ethiopia and the Oromo Liberation Army?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Peace talks between the Ethiopian government and the Oromo Liberation Army were inaugurated on the Tanzanian island of Zanzibar on April 25, 2023, raised speculation about a possible agreement to end the conflict between both sides, especially given that both parties have expressed their commitment to finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict, Negotiation, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Africa, Zanzibar, and Ethiopia

11. The Israeli ThreatL What is driving the renewed escalation between Iran and Azerbaijan?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The Ministry of Interior, Security Agency, and Prosecutor General’s Office of Azerbaijan announced in a joint statement on Tuesday, May 16, 2023, that nine individuals were arrested on charges of planning to overthrow the government by force, assassinate prominent figures and senior Azerbaijani officials. The statement indicated that they had connections to Iranian intelligence agencies, and that the cell was composed of a person named Ruhollah Akhoundzadeh and his son Mursal, along with seven others working under his supervision. On his part, the spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Nasser Kanaani, rejected the accusations in a statement on May 18, denying any official or unofficial relationship between these individuals and Iran. He affirmed that imprisoning individuals on the pretext of their connection to Iran is unacceptable.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Escalation
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Azerbaijan

12. Present Challenges: Will Syria return to the Arab League fold?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On April 15, 2023, Saudi Arabia hosted a meeting that included the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan. The main topic on the agenda was the region’s relations with Syria and the possibility of returning to the Arab League fold after the suspension of its membership in November 2012. The visit of Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud, on April 18, to Damascus raised the question of whether recent diplomatic movements with Syria may pave the way for attending the Arab League Summit set to be held on May 19.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Syrian War, Normalization, Bashar al-Assad, and Arab League
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

13. Messages to Washington: The significance of China's push for a new world order during President Jinping's Moscow visit

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Chinese President Xi Jinping, on March 20, 2023, arrived in Moscow on a three-day state visit to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, drawing harsh criticism from the West. Western countries consider the visit as explicit support to the Russian leader. During the visit, China and Russia signed numerous agreements to show their willingness to reinforce their bilateral relations.
Topic:: Security, Bilateral Relations, Economic Cooperation, Multipolarity, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and United States of America

14. A Long Shot: Chances of reviving the JCPOA following FM’s Moscow visit

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, on March 29, 2023 led ministry officials and a member of the parliament on a visit to Moscow where he met with Russian counterpart Sergie Lavrov to discuss ways of reinforcing bilateral relations and matters of common concern.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, JCPOA, and Cooperation
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

15. Second Meeting in Beijing: China-Facilitated Iran-Saudi diplomatic reconciliation efforts amid US apprehensions

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On April 6, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and his Saudi Arabian counterpart, Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud, signed a joint statement in Beijing announcing the resumption of diplomatic relations between the two countries, which follows a tripartite agreement signed under China's auspices on March 10.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Reconciliation, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: China, Iran, Middle East, Asia, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

16. Nuclear Threshold: Implications of Iran’s enriching uranium to 84% purity

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Bloomberg News, citing two unidentified senior diplomats, on February 19, reported that international atomic monitors, a week earlier, detected that Iran has enriched uranium to 84% purity, just below nuclear weapons-grade, a proof that Iran’s nuclear activities do pose a threat. A purity of 90% is needed to produce nuclear weapons.
Topic:: JCPOA, Uranium, Nuclear Energy, and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

17. Macron’s Tour: A new French strategy for Africa

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: French President Macron ended a four-nation tour of Africa earlier in March, which took him to Gabon, Angola, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Hopeful of restoring France’s influence in the continent, Macron met with African presidents amid popular protests – signs of rising anti-French sentiment in parts of Francophone Africa.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Migration, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Africa, France, and Democratic Republic of Congo

18. Intertwined Interest: What’s behind China-Ivory Coast strengthened relations?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The diplomatic relation between China and Ivory Coast spans over more than four decades. Both sides have strengthened their relations in recent years as China looks to cement its presence in Africa.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Investment, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Ivory Coast

19. Facing Pressure: Iran executes former Defence Minister

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Iran executed on January 14, 2022, a British-Iranian national who once served as its deputy defence minister, defying calls from London and Washington for his release. Alireza Akbari was arrested in 2019 and accused of spying for Britain. He served as a defence minister between 2000 and 2005 under former President Mohammad Khatami, and he fought during the Iraq-Iran war. He also served in other high-ranking positions in the navy and the ministry of defence’s research centre, and was appointed as the general secretariat of the national security council.
Topic:: Security, Elites, and Capital Punishment
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Iran, and Middle East

20. European Mercenaries: Will Congo use Wagner in its conflict with Rwanda?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Tensions broke out between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda in January 2023 after an exchange of accusations of non-compliance with their peace agreement signed in the Angolan capital Luanda in November 2022. The development came after Kinshasa announced that it uses private military firms to counter growing security threats. Kigali regarded this move as a declaration of war.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Conflict, Wagner Group, and Private Military Companies (PMCs)
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Rwanda

21. Gas for Survival: Tackling reasons behind the Italian PM's efforts to promote relations with Libya

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Italian PM Giorgia Meloni visited Libya on January 28, where she met with Abdul Hamid al-Dbeibeh, PM of the outgoing government of national unity. The two leaders signed a new gas deal which has proved controversial.
Topic:: Migration, Gas, Energy, and Government of National Unity (GNU)
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Libya, and Italy

22. Baghdad and Erbil: A difficult road to settling differences

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The relationship between Baghdad and Erbil lately has reached a dead end. The rift between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), the official executive body of the autonomous Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq, and the Federal Government of Iraq (FGI) has, for the past few months, entered a bottleneck driven by political turmoil and rotating governments. But efforts are being made on both sides to bridge differences. On January 11, a Kurdish delegation headed by Masrour Barzani visited the central government in Baghdad to discuss a number of disputed files. The group included several senior officials: ministers for electricity and finance; chief of the cabinet office; director of the office of the region's prime minister; ministers for planning and oil; economic advisors; general counsel; director of border control; and CEO of State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO Oil).
Topic:: Oil, Treaties and Agreements, Budget, Gas, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)

23. Encircling Damascus: Iran’s Foreign Minister Visits Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Iranian Foreign Minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, has made a surprise visit to Ankara, Beirut, and Damascus, reflecting his country’s increased engagement in the region. His trip to Ankara replaced a postponed trip to Moscow, where he was set to meet with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Syrian War, Engagement, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

24. Diplomatic Defeat: Uncovering the low turnout to the Arab League meeting in Tripoli

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Libya’s outgoing Government of National Unity (GNU), led by Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, failed to host a meeting of Arab foreign ministers in the capital Tripoli on January 21, 2023. The chief diplomats of most of the Arab states and the organization’s secretary-general boycotted the meeting. Representatives of only seven Arab states, including Tunisia’s and Algeria’s foreign ministers, attended the gathering, which was a diplomatic blow to the al-Dbeibah government.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Arab League, and Instability
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

25. Tunisia’s Secret Apparatus: Why Ennahda’s Deputy Head was detained?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Tunisian Ennahda party on December 31, 2021 announced that the government security forces, acting on orders from the Interior Minister Taoufik Charfeddine have detained the Deputy Head Noureddine Bhiri and former Interior Ministry official Fathi Al-Baladi, and put them under house arrest.
Topic:: Corruption, Domestic Politics, and Ennahda Party
Political Geography:: North Africa and Tunisia

26. Additional Losses: Examining the severity of the protests' impact on Iran's economy

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Widespread protests broke out across Iran after the death of Mahsa Amini in a hospital in Tehran in September 2022 while in the custody of the country's morality police. While the current protests differ from previous protests in that protestors demanded women's rights be respected. Later, the protests spread, and the protesters demanded regime change. Yet, the economy's deterioration is one of the main drivers of the spread of the angry protests. As social unrest is likely to further exacerbate across Iran, the protests are likely to incur financial and trade losses, further complicating the economic situation.
Topic:: Economy, Domestic Politics, Protests, Inflation, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

27. The Taiwan Factor: Why Is China seeking a larger military might?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is also the head of Central Military Commission, told the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, held from October 16 to October 22, to speed up efforts to modernize the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to transform it into a world-class military. He also underscored the need for winning regional wars.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Conflict, Borders, Strategic Interests, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

28. Mutual Aims: Turkish-Iranian targeting of Iraq’s Kurds

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Turkey and Iran, in recent months, have increased their strikes on areas occupied by Kurds in Iraq. The Turkish Air Force, on November 20, announced intense airstrikes, dubbed Operation Claw-Sword, targeting Syrian Democratic Forces and Syrian Army positions in Northern Syria and against Kurdistan Workers’ Party positions in Northern Iraq. Iran, at the same time, intensified its missile and drone strikes on locations that belong to Kurdish opposition parties, which Tehran claims to have been supporting the latest demonstrations across the country since September this year. The timing of these strikes raises questions about the intention of both regimes and the timing of their targeting of Kurdish rebels in Iraq.
Topic:: Minorities, Kurds, Strategic Interests, and Military Alignment
Political Geography:: Iran, Turkey, and Middle East

29. Iran Protests: Limitations of foreign support to protests

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: National Council of Resistance of Iran has said more than 400 Iranians have been killed and over 20,000 arrested since the breakout of nation-wide protests in Iran. Popular unrests and violence have been sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, three days after she was being detained by ‘morality police’ for claims of violating hijab laws.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Protests, Foreign Interference, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

30. Limited Outcome: UNSC Resolution 2656 fails to solve the Libyan Crisis

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The United Nations Security Council Resolution, on October 28, 2022, unanimously voted to extend the mandate of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) for twelve months. It urged all Libyan parties and key stakeholders to agree on a new road map to deliver presidential and parliamentary elections as soon as possible and form a Libyan unified government able to govern across the country.
Topic:: United Nations, Conflict, Crisis Management, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: Middle East and Libya

31. The Third Term: Messages from China’s CCP’s national congress to the US

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, held from October 16 to October 22, is the most significant event in China. The event only happens twice every decade, but this particular Congress is extraordinarily important. President Xi Jinping secured an unprecedented third five-year term in power, breaking with the party’s rule of not allowing a sitting leader for more than two successive five-year terms in office. The rule was established by former president Deng Xiaoping and was enshrined in the country’s constitution which was later amended by president Xi in 2017.
Topic:: Economy, Domestic Politics, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

32. Persistent Obstacles: Iraqi state’s prospects for forming a new government

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Head of the Sadrist Movement and powerful Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has announced that a truce reached to observe the Shia religious observance of Arbaeen was extended for another two weeks to mid-October to give political forces a chance to respond to his demands. The announcement coincided with the Iraqi parliament’s rejection of the resignation of Speaker of the parliament, Mohammed al-Halbousi on September 28. It also came while the Shi'ite Coordination Framework, the largest bloc in the parliament, claimed that, along with the Kurdisd and Sunni parties, it succeeded in establishing a new political coalition, reportedly named “Running-the-State Coalition.”
Topic:: Government, Domestic Politics, Muqtada al-Sadr, Coalition, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

33. Urgent Messages: Assessing the influence of the US-France-Saudi statement on Lebanon holding timely elections

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The foreign ministers of the United States, France and Saudi Arabia, on September 21, issued a joint statement expressing their support for Lebanon. In the statement issued after representatives of the three countries met on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly, expressed their continuing support for Lebanon’s sovereignty, security, and stability. They stressed upon the importance of holding timely elections in compliance with the constitution to choose a new president and form a new government capable of implementing the structural and economic reforms, urgently needed to address Lebanon’s political and economic crises, specifically those reforms needed to reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund. In the statement, the three countries further expressed willingness to work jointly with Lebanon to support the implementation of these fundamental reform measures, which are critical to the country’s future prosperity, stability, and security. The three countries acknowledged the critical role the Lebanese Armed Forces and the Internal Security Forces – as the legitimate defenders of Lebanon’s sovereignty and internal stability – continue to play in protecting the Lebanese people in a time of unprecedented crisis. They affirmed the need for the Lebanese government to implement the provisions of UN Security Council resolutions 1559, 1680, 1701, 2650, and other relevant international resolutions, including those issued by the Arab League, and commit to the Taif Agreement which enables the preservation of national unity and civil peace in Lebanon.
Topic:: Reform, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East, France, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and United States of America

34. A Likely Failure: What are the prospects of success for African Union’s effort to mediate in the Tigray War?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Weeks into resumed fighting between the Ethiopian government and regional rebel militias, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), rivals have agreed to the African Union’s (AU) invitation to sit at the negotiation table, set to be held in Pretoria, South Africa. The first round of negotiations has been delayed, however, indicating tensions and the possibility of returning to armed conflict again.
Topic:: African Union, Mediation, Armed Conflict, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray

35. Possible Prospects: The chances of success of Iraq’s national dialogue

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Iraqi political forces and government representatives, at a meeting on September 5, agreed on six recommendations, which include the creation of a technical team to shape views and perceptions and reconcile different views to pave the way for early elections. The meeting was held as part of the second round of the national dialogue, held despite the Sadrist Movement’s rejection of the dialogue. The first round, held on August 17, was attended by leaders of the Shiite Coordination Framework, leaders from other political forces as well as the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Iraq Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Civil Unrest, Muqtada al-Sadr, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

36. Deepening the Divide: How do regional and international actors impact war-torn Libya

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Months of political and military stalemate speak volumes of the effects of regional and international intervention in Libya. And with multitude of players seek to break the deadlock, Libya may brace itself for a new political episode that might transpire in the coming period.
Topic:: Politics, Military Intervention, Conflict, and International Community
Political Geography:: Middle East and Libya

37. Reciprocal Pressures: Are Israel-Lebanon maritime border talks doomed to fail?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The future of talks between Israel and Lebanon on delineating a shared maritime border, mediated by US Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs, Amos Hochstein remains uncertain following an exchange of escalatory statements from Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah about the disputed Karish natural gas field. Both sides suggested that the tensions can escalate into an all-out war unless their conditions are met. However, Lebanese officials including President Michel Aoun stated that the negotiations to demarcate the border are in the final stages.
Topic:: Oil, Treaties and Agreements, Maritime, and Energy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

38. Regional Expansion: Implications of Al-Shabab's escalation of attacks inside and outside Somalia

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Somalia recently witnessed a remarkable escalation of attacks by the al-Shabab, not only inside Somalia but also in the Horn of Africa, especially in Kenya and Ethiopia, as the terror group is seeking to expand across the region.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, Al-Shabaab, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, Ethiopia, and Somalia

39. Stalling: Analysing Iran’s written response to EU nuclear deal draft

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: EU’s high representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, said on August 15 that both the EU and US were studying Iran’s written response and hoping to restore the tattered nuclear deal. There was no timeline given on when the world powers would respond, but Iran’s official media said Tehran expected a reply in two days.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Nonproliferation, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

40. A New Populist President: William Ruto’s victory and Kenya’s future

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Across Kenya, anticipating supporters of outgoing government candidate Raila Odinga had anxiously been listening in on radios or staring at television screens, waiting for the country’s presidential elections results. Their favourite candidate had lost the elections. At Nairobi’s national election centre, Chairman of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), Wafula Chebukati, had announced Ruto’s narrow win but fled the building quickly after. Chaos ensued: police forces stormed the hall as Odinga supporters punched through to the stage. Chairman Chebukati left the centre under police protection, national music blaring through the speakers. The country seems to be on the verge of another wave of violent unrests.
Topic:: Populism, Domestic Politics, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

41. Divergent Views: Tunisian President’s prospects for passing the new constitution

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Tunisian President Kais Saied, on June 20, received a new draft constitution written by Sadok Belaid, Coordinator of the High National Advisory Committee for New Republic. The draft was not final as some chapters were reviewed and amended before it was published in the official gazette on June 30. The draft new constitution will be put to a referendum on July 25.
Topic:: Reform, Constitution, Domestic Politics, and Kais Saied
Political Geography:: North Africa and Tunisia

42. NIGAL: Algeria, Niger, & Nigeria revive talks on Saharan Gas Pipeline

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Algeria, Niger, and Nigeria held talks on June 20 and 21, 2022 in the Nigerian capital Abuja on the revival of a decades-old project to pipe gas across the Sahara, a potential opportunity for Europe to diversify its gas sources, media reported. Alegria’s Minister of Energy and Mines Mohamed Arkab said the meeting was “important and successful”, setting the “first building block” for a project that’s been just an idea for over 15 years. It was agreed to continue consultations through the technical team that was formed in Abuja and tasking it to prepare the necessary feasibility studies for the project. It was also agreed that the three ministers should meet again no later than the end of July in Algeria.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Gas, Economy, and Pipeline
Political Geography:: Africa, Algeria, Nigeria, Niger, and Sahara

43. Geoeconomics of Polarisation: Can BRICS eclipse western global economic power?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The 14th BRICS summit concluded on June 24 amid Western sanctions on Russia and rising tension between China and the US over Taiwan. The two-day event took place via video and was hosted by Beijing.
Topic:: Economy, BRICS, Polarization, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, India, Taiwan, South Africa, Brazil, and United States of America

44. A Revealing Election: Implications of re-electing Berri as Lebanon's parliament speaker for 7th term

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Lebanon’s 128-strong parliament met on May 31, 2022 to elect a speaker, a deputy speaker, two secretaries and three commissioners. The new legislature re-elected Nabih Berri, the head of the Amal Movement for a 7th term in a row, as speaker and MP Elias Bou Saab, who represents the Strong Lebanon parliamentary bloc, as deputy speaker.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Presidential Elections, Parliament, and Nabih Berri
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

45. Holding the Hard-line: What is behind Iran’s seizure of Greek ships in Arabian Gulf?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On May 27, Iran seized two Greek tankers, named “Prudent Warrior” and “Delta Poseidon”, in the Arabian Gulf. Forces from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) descended on the tankers and ordered them to sail to Bandar Abbas port. Onboard the tankers were 49 crew members. Greece described the operation as ‘piracy’. The seizure seems to be a reprisal for Greece’s role earlier in the month assisting the US impounding a Russian-flagged tanker transporting Iranian oil and carrying 19 crew.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Maritime, and Shipping
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Greece

46. Berlin’s Hesitation: Implications of German Foreign Minister’s tour to Mali and Niger

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, on April 12 and 13, made an important visit to Mali and Niger that is set to determine the future of Germany’s military presence in Mali. The German government is divided into those who support a continued presence in Mali and those who push for complete withdrawal of the German troops from the African country.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Armed Forces, European Union, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Germany, Mali, and Niger

47. Confronting the West: Lavrov's visit to Algeria

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On May 10, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held a meeting with the Algerian President, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, and his Algerian counterpart Ramtane Lamamra, during a formal visit to Algier. Lavrov handed over an official invitation from Russia's President Vladimir Putin to the Algerian President, and a visit is expected to be arranged to Moscow soon. It is noteworthy that this is the first time Lavrov visits Algeria since Tebboune assumed office. It is also Lavrov's first visit to an Arab country since the beginning of the Russian military operation in Ukraine. In addition, the visit coincides with the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Algeria and Russia.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Alliance, Strategic Interests, Cooperation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Algeria and North Africa

48. International Support: How the Taliban are trying to uproot ISIS in Afghanistan

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The Taliban and the Islamic State in Iraq & Syria (ISIS) seem to have shifted their focus. Latest reports coming from American security and defence intelligence agencies have indicated that, despite the US withdrawal from Afghanistan six months earlier, terrorist groups, such as ISIS and al-Qaeda are less likely to make the country a launchpad for international terrorist attacks against the West. These reports contradicted earlier statements made by senior US Pentagon officials. They had maintained that the newly formed branch of ISIS, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (or ISKP), would launch attacks on American and Western soil as early as 12 months within the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.
Topic:: Security, Taliban, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, and Coordination
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America

49. The Hurriyet Leaks: Ankara ceasing opportunity for rapprochement with Damascus

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: In a recent report published by Turkish newspaper, Hurriyet, unnamed sources have said Ankara is mulling over opportunities to facilitate a dialogue with the Syrian government. Sources at the Syrian Foreign Ministry have strongly denied such reports however, labelling them as mere political red herring, as Turkey’s presidential elections loom on the horizon.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Refugees, Syrian War, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

50. French Anticipation: Algerian mediation between Mali and the ECOWAS

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On January 24, 2022, an Algerian delegation arrived in Bamako, the capital of Mali, led by the Algeria’s special envoy for the Sahel and Africa Boudjemaa Delmi. The visit was part of the initiative proposed by Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune to mediate between Mali and the members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to resolve the tension which has escalated between the two parties following the strict sanctions imposed by the ECOWAS on Bamako. The sanctions were imposed in response to the decision of Mali's junta to extend the transition period for five more years.
Topic:: Diplomacy, African Union, Mediation, Regional Politics, and ECOWAS
Political Geography:: Africa, France, Algeria, and Mali

51. The Russian Role! The domestic and regional dimensions of the military coup in Burkina Faso

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: In January 24, 2022, members of the army in Burkina Faso announced their seizure of power and the dismissal of Burkinabé President Roch Marc Kaboré. One of the officers who seized power delivered a statement on state television, signed by Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, Head of the Patriotic Movement for Safeguard and Restoration (MPSR), announcing the overthrow of the government, thus joining Burkina Faso to Mali and Guinea, in the third military coup in West Africa in just eight months.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Coup, and Military
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, France, and Burkina Faso

52. Escalating Disputes:Moroccan call to grant Algerian tribes the right to self-determination

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The Algerian Foreign Ministry summoned its Ambassador to Morocco on July 18, 2021, in order to consult with him regarding what the Moroccan envoy to the UN had stated in a recent meeting of foreign ministers of the Non-Aligned Movement States (NAM) in Baku, as he called for granting the Kabylie region located in Eastern Algeria the right to self-determination. Algeria regards this measure as a violation of international law and the African Union Constitutive Act. It further considered such statements opposing the principles and agreements governing Moroccan-Algerian relations. Algeria also referred to the possibility of taking other measures should no positive and appropriate action be taken by the Moroccan side.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, International Law, Territorial Disputes, and Self-Determination
Political Geography:: Algeria, North Africa, and Morocco

53. The Ahvas Protests Are the minorities' demonstrations a reflection of a crisis in Tehran?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On July 15, Khuzestan in South West Iran witnessed a range of protests against the disintegrating economic and living conditions in the country, particularly the lack of water within the province, which was called ‘water protests’ or ‘thirst protests’, This was extended to other Iranian cities outside Khuzestan. The protesters' demands evolved to demand the overthrow of the regime itself raising slogans of ‘Death to Khamenei’.
Topic:: Economics, Water, Minorities, and Protests
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

54. Persistent Challenges The future of the US presence in Iraq following the fourth round of the strategic dialogue

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: At the conclusion of the fourth round of the strategic dialogue between Baghdad and Washington, US President Joe Biden and Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi signed an agreement officially ending the US combat mission in Iraq by the end of 2021, more than 18 years after US forces entered Iraq. In return, Baghdad confirmed Iraq's commitment to protecting the international coalition personnel, who provide advisory and training assistance. According to the statements of the Iraqi Foreign Minister, the fourth round of the strategic dialogue between the two countries will be the last. Hence, the understandings that took place between the two sides will form the general framework governing the bilateral relations between the two countries.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Armed Forces, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

55. Limited Rapprochement: Prospects for Turkish-Israeli Convergence of Interests

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Turkey’s endeavor to improve its relations with Israel were evidenced in its recent official contacts with Israel. Most recently, on July 12, 2021, Israeli President Issac Herzog and Turksih President Recep Tayyib Erdogan held a phone call, followed by official contacts between ministers and officials from both countries. The contacts are perceived as a Turkish attempt to overcome years of strained relations between the two countries.
Topic:: International Relations, Military Affairs, Economy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

56. Multilayered Challenges: Why are foreign oil companies planning to leave Iraq?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Numerous foreign oil companies have recently announced plans to sell their shares in several major oil fields in Iraq, as part of measures that may negatively impact Iraqi oil production. There are multiple explanations for this step, including unstable security and political conditions as well as Iraq's failure to pay foreign companies their dues for operating the fields, in addition to the growing Chinese influence in the oil sector.
Topic:: Security, Oil, and Business
Political Geography:: China, Iraq, and Middle East

57. The New Rules of the Game: Unfolding the targeting of an Israeli oil tanker in the Arabian Sea

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On Friday, July 30, Iran targeted the Mercer Street oil tanker in the Northern Arabian Sea off the Omani port of Duqm, which was on its way from Dar es Salaam in Tanzania to Fujairah in the UAE, killing two crew members: a British and a Romanian. The Israeli ship was attacked by one or more drones. The attack came in two waves. The first wave was the bombing of the tanker with missiles carried by a normal drone. As the damage was limited, a larger suicide attack was launched on the dormitories of the ship's crew, with the aim of causing casualties, which actually resulted in the deaths of a British and a Romanian. The oil tanker belongs to the London-based Zodiac Maritime company, which is part of the Zodiac company owned by Israeli businessman Eyal Ofer. This is the second attack within the month of July, as the first one took place on July 3, targeting Csav Tyndall, which is also owned by Eyal Ofer.
Topic:: Oil, Conflict, Crisis Management, and Trade
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Persian Gulf

58. Moscow's Central Role: Have the Rules of Engagement Changed in Syria after the recent Israeli Strikes?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On July 19, 22 and 25, Israel carried out three strikes in less than one week using surface-to-air missiles against Syria. These strikes are considered the first of their kind executed by the new Israeli "Bennett-Lapid" government. Although this type of strikes is not novel, the Russian reaction to it was different this time. The Russian Ministry of Defense engaged in the scene for the first time, sending indirect messages to Israel. This made analysts refer to a possible shift in the rules of engagement in Syria. The understandings between Moscow and Tel Aviv were based on Moscow turning a blind eye to Israeli fighters launching airstrikes in Syria against Iranian targets, in return for Israel not targeting Syrian regime forces or Russian forces, which provide direct support to the Syrian army against the armed opposition. The Russian position reflected a clear desire to weaken the Iranian military presence in Syria, particularly with the escalation of rivalry between Moscow and Tehran over economic and military influence there.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, and Economy
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

59. Correcting the Course: Will splits within Tunisia’s Ennahda lead to its collapse?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: In a statement issued on July 31, some 130 members of Tunisian Ennahda Movement, including five members of the parliament, members of the party’s executive office and Shura Council, members of municipal and local offices called on Rached Ghannouchi, the main leader of the movement and saker of the parliament, to prioritize the country’s national interests and take any necessary measures to bring the parliament back to normal. Additionally, Mohamed al-Nouri, a leader of Ennahda, announced his resignation from the party’s Shura Council. The signatories to the statement also urged the party’s leaders to take full responsibility for failure to fulfill the demands of people and understanding the reasons of turmoil. They believe that the party failed to respond to the demands and needs of people undergoing hard economic and social conditions due to soaring prices, plummeting purchasing power and rising unemployment, all compounded by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Topic:: Economy, Unemployment, Political Parties, COVID-19, and Ennahda Party
Political Geography:: North Africa and Tunisia

60. A Spiraling Crisis: The different scenarios of Ethiopia’s civil war amid Tigray’s military advancement

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Over the past nine months, Ethiopia has been reeling under a civil war that broke out between the federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). The conflict, however, saw two important developments, with the first being that the war has spilled over the region’s border into Amhara and Afar. The second development is that Addis Ababa refused to allow corridors via Sudan for humanitarian aid bound for Tigray Region. Addis Ababa took this stand despite the United Nation’s warning that 400,000 people are left on the verge of famine in the beleaguered region and that 90 per cent of the population need lifesaving food aid.
Topic:: Security, Civil War, Military Affairs, Crisis Management, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray

61. Pragmatic Adaptation: American Surrender and Regional Acceptance After Taliban’s Takeover of Afghanistan

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Ousted Afghan president Ashraf Ghani left Afghanistan on August 15th when the Taliban reached the outskirts of the capital Kabul. At the time, a source close to Taliban stressed that the two sides reached an agreement whereby Ghani should step down and hand over power to a transitional administration. While the United States and the European Union might well consider the use of sanctions as a weapon against the Taliban, if the movement does not live up to its commitment not to target US and European citizens leaving Afghanistan, it should be noted that most of Afghanistan’s neighbors expected the collapse of the Afghan government – although not this fast- and even began to open up to the Taliban. Irreversible US Withdrawal The United States defended its decision to pull out of Afghanistan rebuffing criticism both at home and abroad. It reiterated that kept forces in Afghanistan twice as long as the Soviets. The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said remaining in Afghanistan is “simply not in the national interest.” He added that the US succeeded in the mission of reducing attacks on its soil and interests. The US withdrawal will leave wide repercussions both regionally and internationally.
Topic:: Military Affairs, Taliban, European Union, Refugees, Humanitarian Crisis, Adaptation, and Pragmatism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia, Iran, South Asia, Turkey, India, and United States of America

62. Remarkable Shift Implications of the Meeting of US Envoy to Libya with General Haftar in Cairo

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The US Embassy in Libya recently announced that US Special Envoy and Ambassador to Libya Richard Norland met General Khalifa Haftar, Commander of the Libyan National Army in Cairo between August 11-12 2021, as part of US efforts to support the parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for December. The announcement followed statements in which Noland noted Haftar’s role in unifying the Libyan army. Norland also called on regional and international parties to help in the removal of foreign forces from Libya, much to the anger of the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood, who sensed a change in Washington’s attitude towards their organization. This was made even more evident when Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the second son of Libyan leader Moammar Qaddafi, spoke to the New York Times in an interview published on July 30. In the interview, Qaddafi asserted that he would run for president in the coming elections. The development indicates Washington’s current attitude towards parties to the conflict in Libya and its potential approval of Gaddafi’s presidential candidacy.
Topic:: Oil, Islamic State, Conflict, Muslim Brotherhood, and Khalifa Haftar
Political Geography:: Turkey, Libya, North Africa, North America, Tunisia, and United States of America

63. Economy First: Assigning Ayman Ben Abdel Rahman to form the new Algerian government

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Finance Minister Ayman Ben Abdel Rahman (60 years old) has been assigned to form the new Algerian government, as he is a technocrat who is not affiliated with any political or ideological currents. This is in addition to his economic and financial expertise, which will be critical in handling the internal challenges, particularly with respect to dealing with the Hirak movement, tackling economic crisis and facing security threats. On June 30, 2021, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune issued a decree appointing Ayman Ben Abdel Rahman as Prime Minister to succeed Djerad, who submitted his resignation on June 24, following the announcement of the final results of the latest parliamentary elections. Abdel Rahman was assigned to consult with the winning political parties to form a new government as soon as possible. Abdel Rahman was assigned as the country's Prime Minister, in accordance with the provisions of the 5th and 7th paragraphs of Article "91" of the Algerian constitution, which grants the Algerian president the authority to assign a person to form a national government to manage the country's affairs.
Topic:: Government, Finance, Economy, Ideology, and Hirak Movement
Political Geography:: Algeria and North Africa

64. The Attack on Karaj: Analysis of the attack on an Iranian atomic energy agency facility

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The ‘shadow war’ between Iran and Israel continues. The sabotage operations remain, evident in the attacks on Natanz, the most famous uranium enrichment facility in Iran in July 2020 and in April 202, and assassination of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in Tehran. This is in addition to the mutual targeting of ships in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, the Mediterranean and the Red Sea between the two sides.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Violence, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

65. Possible Polarization: The repercussions of the Beirut port blast investigation on the Lebanese political scene

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The investigations into the Beirut port blast, which took place in August 2020, witnessed significant developments recently. The judicial investigator, Judge Tariq Bitar, issued a series of rulings starting on July 2, stipulating the investigation of former ministers, current representatives as well as security and military leaders, with a demand to lift the immunity of some for the purpose of conducting investigations with them.
Topic:: Corruption, Politics, Leadership, Polarization, and Disaster Management
Political Geography:: Middle East, Lebanon, and Beirut

66. A Constant Deadlock: Failure of Initiatives to Resolve the Current Tunisian Political Crisis

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: In early July 2021, a number of political parties and civil society organizations formed what is known as the Referendum Front, calling for the resignation of the Prime Minister and the Parliament, as well as conducting early elections. Meanwhile, the Ennahda government called for the formation of a political government headed by Al-Mashishi, which reflects the attempts of the concerned parties to resolve the current crisis. Such conflicting statements coincided with the Fitch announcing on July 8, 2021 reducing Tunisia’s sovereign rating from “B” to “B-” with further negative prospects. This is the ninth reduction since 2011. The Governor of the Central Bank emphasized that the reduction is caused by political instability and politicians hindering subsidy and wages reform.
Topic:: Referendum, Political Crisis, Parliamentarism, and Ennahda Party
Political Geography:: Middle East and Tunisia

67. The Second Government Benabderrahmane’s prospects for stabilizing Algeria

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The formation of the new Algerian government led by Ayman Benabderrahmane, former minister of finance, was announced on July 7, following his consultations with President Abdelmadjid Tebboune and the political parties which won the recent parliamentary elections. The new cabinet is made up of 34 ministers, including 17 new ministers, who joined those who retained their positions in the former government.
Topic:: Government, Elections, Political stability, Political Parties, and Muslim Brotherhood
Political Geography:: Algeria and North Africa

68. Curtailing Tehran: Breaking down the validation of Israeli conjectures if Damascus is constraining Iranian military activities

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The Israeli ‘Walla’ news website published a report that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has reorganized the deployment of military forces in Syria, and has restricted the movement of Iranian forces internally in order to prevent internal frictions and achieve peace and stability. Walla deems the change in Damascus’s stance towards Iran to be in response to the political, economic and military pressures implored on the former. The website has also indicated that the Iranian presence in Syria has also weakened for other reasons, including the continuous Israeli and US pressures on Iranian presence there. While there were no sources confirming such notions, considering the policies of regional and international powers’ concerning the Syrian crisis, there might be some truth to this notion, pushing Damascus to embrace such tactics.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, Political stability, and Peace
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

69. Ousting Ennahda: Will Kais Saied's decisions help solve the crisis in Tunisia?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On the Tunisia’s 64th Republic Day -Sunday, July 25, 2021- the so-called 25 July Movement called for massive protests all over the country. Consequently, many responded and started protesting in Bardo Square, near the parliament, in the capital Tunis. The protests soon spread across other governorates, such as Sousse, the coastal governorate, Sfax (in the south), and El-Kef (in the northwest). In response, President Kais Saied announced, on July 26, 2021, the dismissal of Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi and his cabinet, which consisted of 25 ministries. Saied decided to take charge of executive power until he chooses another politician to form a new government. He further suspended the current parliament and lifted the parliamentary immunity of all its members. Besides, he decided to rule by issuing decrees instead of the laws, which the parliament was supposed to pass. These decisions were announced after the emergency meeting that was chaired by president Saied, and attended by military leaders and security officials on the day the protests and rallies broke out. The protesters demanded reforming the economy, combatting corruption and terrorism, dismissing the Mechichi cabinet, and dissolving the parliament.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Reform, Crisis Management, and Ennahda Party
Political Geography:: North Africa and Tunisia

70. Deferred Precession: Why was Iran so quick to enrich uranium by 60%?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On April 16, the Head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization, Ali Akbar Salehi, announced Iran's hourly production of 9 grams of uranium enriched to 60%. This step provoked Western countries participating in the Vienna talks.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Uranium, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: Iran, Vienna, and United States of America

71. Variant Requirements: Discovering the recent policies of the MENA countries regarding nationality and citizenship

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The political and technical dimensions of granting or revoking nationality have recently escalated in several countries of the region. This is associated with a number of motives relevant to enhancing the state’s global position, as reflected in the UAE granting nationality to competent scientists, doctors, intellectuals, specialists and talented individuals, to encourage the flow of investment into the country. The Jordanian government adopted the same approach to improve the internal economic conditions. The Algerian government justified this course to confront terrorist operations and irregular migration that caused tensions in the relations with the EU countries. Furthermore, the Sudanese transitional government withdrew the Sudanese nationality by naturalization, especially from Syrians, as some were obtained through illegal procedures. Israel also passed the Law of Return this March in an attempt to enhance the demographic structure of the country.
Topic:: Government, European Union, Citizenship, and Nationality
Political Geography:: Sudan, Middle East, Israel, Algeria, North Africa, Syria, Jordan, and United Arab Emirates

72. The Battle of Time: Why is Washington showing little interest in Iran's presidential elections?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The Biden administration has been keen on sending several messages implying that it shows little interest in the results of the Iran presidential elections due to take place on June 18. Washington believes that the identity of Iran's next president will not change the decision-making trends in Tehran or the potential course of the relations between Iran and the US over the next phase. On March 11, Robert Malley, the US envoy to Iran, said that “Iran's elections in June are not a factor in the Biden administration’s decision-making for how to proceed with nuclear talks” adding that “the pace will be determined by how far we can get consistent with defending U.S. national security interests”. He continued saying, “we won’t rush or slow things because of the Iranian elections”. This reflects several indicators relevant to the new strategy adopted by the Biden administration in dealing with Iran during the current phase, which can be addressed as follows:
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, Elections, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Iran and Washington

73. Mounting Turmoil: Is Lebanon witnessing a deterioration of the influence of Hezbollah and Iran?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The Lebanese internal arena is experiencing escalating instability. This is clearly reflected in the influence of political forces, especially Hezbollah, which is under internal and external pressures as a result of the faltering formation of the government. The balance of power is drawing more to be in favor of the Bashar al-Assad regime over the past few years. In addition to its continued involvement in the Syrian conflict, Hezbollah identifies with the Iranian public discourse on many regional and international issues, particularly during the escalation of tensions with the US and Israel.
Topic:: Politics, Conflict, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Iran, Lebanon, and Syria

74. Multifaceted Challenges: The political dimension of the physicians’ crises in the region

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Although the difficulties’ health personnel face, are quite similar to those of workers in other fields, the political dimensions of physicians ’crises in the region have increased remarkably. Medical doctors are kidnapped in some hotbeds of several Arab armed conflicts to provide treatment for some Militia members, in addition to their indirect involvement in military confrontations in Northeastern Syria through Turkey. Moreover, there is a gap between the medical syndicate and the political authorities regarding the actual number of COVID-19 cases, which was quite evident in Turkey. Medical doctors in some states of the region suffer from delayed payment of their salaries as a result of the decline in oil prices as well as the decline in the financial budgets of their countries. This leads to what is known as the ‘brain drain’, in addition to their contracting diseases such as the coronavirus due to their presence on the front lines confronting the epidemic with short medical supplies. The lives of medical doctors in some countries are endangered, as they get exposed to repeated attacks by community members due to the absence of adequate security measures. The crises of medical doctors in the region are by no means a recent phenomenon, but their features evolve according to different regional conditions and the emergence of transnational epidemics. The Middle East reflects a variety of crises that physicians are exposed to, particularly in hotbeds of tension.
Topic:: Health, Crisis Management, COVID-19, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Syria

75. The Concurrent Approach: Is Iran changing its policy regarding the nuclear deal?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, has proposed the possibility of settling disputes over the nuclear deal by adopting the ‘simultaneous’ approach, meaning that Iran will once again comply to the deal in return for US lifting sanctions imposed on it. On February 2, during his interview with CNN network, Zarif responded to the question by Christian Amanpour, about whether Iran is still demanding that the US act first, saying that the necessary steps can be synchronized. He also suggested the EU mediate to settle the disputes and remove any obstacles against Washington's return to the agreement. This may imply that Iran made early concessions in its position, regarding the adherence to strict conditions, similar to: the US returning to the agreement first, lifting sanctions and providing compensation for the losses incurred. However, these may not be major concessions impacting the general attitudes of the Iranian leadership, nor may they necessarily indicate Iran's intention to make significant changes in its policy regarding the nuclear deal. To be precise, this new approach announced by Zarif may simply be a tactical change in the Iranian policy aiming to enhance the access to understandings and to avoid early problems with the US administration, at a time when Iran appears to be in dire need of lifting US sanctions.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Nuclear Power, Elections, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

76. The Aftermath of Demonstrations: The reasons behind the conflict about Tunisian cabinet reshuffle

Author:: Karam Saeed
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On January 27, 2021, the political climate in Tunisia was charged up, following the parliament’s approval on a cabinet reshuffle on January 26, supported by 144 parliamentarians. This included new ministers joining the government of ‘Hichem Mechichi’, which had been formed on August 24, 2020. The proposed amendments intensified the political crisis in the country, against the backdrop of President Kais Saied’s announcement of his rejection of the cabinet reshuffle under the claims of the potential corruption of some ministers. Yet, Mechici resorted to the parliamentary majority led by Al-Nahda movement to gain the confidence of the parliament. Despite the lapse of a week since the new reshuffle won the confidence of the Parliament, the President rejected summoning the new ministers to take the constitutional oath, which paves the way for more complications in the Tunisian scene. Furthermore, the Parliament's approval of the amendments may fuel a constitutional struggle between the Prime Minister and the President.
Topic:: Government, Conflict, and Demonstrations
Political Geography:: North Africa and Tunisia

77. Under Observation: The Libyan conflict and the election of a new government

Author:: Ahmed Abdel-Alim Hassan
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The internationally-supported political dialogue forum in Geneva succeeded in selecting a new government, including Abdul Hamid Mohammed al-Dabaib as Prime Minister, and Muhammad Al-Manfi as President of the Presidential Council as well as two other members of the Council. These results were well received internally, regionally and internationally, which raises a key question relevant to the ability of the new government, though temporary, to effect positive accomplishments leading to the general elections in December 2021.
Topic:: Politics, Conflict, Transition, Khalifa Haftar, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: Libya and North Africa

78. Seeking Allies: The motives behind the change of the Turkish foreign policy towards appeasement

Author:: Abdel Latif Hegazy
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The Turkish foreign policy has witnessed changes since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002. Turkey initially adopted a ‘zero problems with neighbors’ policy and resorted to solving regional issues through diplomatic mechanisms, leading to improving its relations with the countries of the region. However, following the outbreak of the Arab uprisings end of 2010 and the collapse of several major Arab regimes, resulting in a leadership gap within the region, Ankara sought to foster its influence in the region. This was clear in abandoning the ‘zero problems’ policy, engaging in the region's military conflicts and providing support to the Muslim Brotherhood to enable its rule in some Arab countries. These policies have led to tensions in Turkey's relations with many countries in the region, such as Egypt and Syria, as well as interrupted relations with countries that were considered its allies, such as the US and the EU, leaving Turkey with ‘zero allies’. Turkish officials defend their country's policies by launching the term ‘precious loneliness’, clarifying that Turkey's foreign policy is based on a set of values and principles that achieve its national interests, and that sometimes one may have to stand up alone to defend the values that one believes in. Nevertheless, since late 2020, Turkey's foreign policy has made a shift towards appeasement and the pursuit of improving relations with many countries in the region, with the EU and the US. Perhaps one of the most significant official statements indicating the desire to resolve issues is Erdogan's call in November 2020 to open diplomatic channels and reconciliation with all countries in the region for a quick resolution of conflicts. He also mentioned that they have no implicit or explicit prejudices, enmities or hidden agendas against anyone, and that they sincerely and cordially call on everyone to work together to set a new stage in the framework of stability, safety, justice and respect. This change has raised questions about Ankara's real motive, whether it aims to improve its foreign relations or it simply seeks to compensate for the losses incurred by its regional policies, relieve the pressures imposed on it and to penetrate the fronts that counter its role in the region.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Appeasement
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

79. Tehran Signals: Uncovering the limitations of the Chinese Iranian agreement

Author:: Mervat Zakaria
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Uncovering the limitations of the Chinese Iranian agreement The Economic Cooperation Agreement signed between Iran and China in March 2021 unfolded a development plan that includes China injecting $ 400 billion into various sectors of the Iranian economy. This grants Tehran an opportunity to increase the pressures imposed on the new US administration, regarding resumption of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action held with the P5+1 in 2015, as well as confronting the surrounding regional threats and alleviating internal pressures by improving the Iranian standard of living.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: China, Iran, Middle East, and Asia

80. The Spark at Sidi Hassine: The Tunisian Protests Between Possible Escalation and Containment

Author:: Karam Saeed
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The stripping of a young man on June 8, by Tunisian police in the district of Sidi Hassine, west of the capital Tunis, has sparked a wave of angry protests that swept the whole country. The popular tensions do not stem only from a rejection of violations by the security forces of the cabinet headed by Hichem El Mechichi. Rather they are being stoked by the escalating political polarization among the presidency, the cabinet and the parliament. This is accompanied with the underperformance of state institutions failing to carry out their essential functions, in addition to the deteriorating living conditions, the messy monetary policies, increasing reliance on borrowing from other countries, while at the same time cutting subsidies. All of this triggered the recent wave of protests.
Topic:: Economics, Protests, Institutions, and Police
Political Geography:: North Africa and Tunisia

81. The Post-Rouhani Era: The future of US-Iranian relations under Raisi

Author:: Hussam Ibrahim
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: After the announcement of the victory of Ebrahim Raisi, Iran's hard-line judiciary chief, various analysts raised questions about the future of US-Iranian relations, particularly in light of major determinants. The most prominent of which is Ebrahim Raisi himself, who is subject to US sanctions, and his term, which may coincide with reaching a new nuclear agreement between Washington and Tehran, as well as the current debate in Washington’s political circles regarding the situation in Iran.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Hassan Rouhani
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

82. Intertwined challenges: How will the ‘Berlin 2’ conference affect the Libyan crisis?

Author:: Mahmoud Qassem
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: About a year and a half following the first Berlin conference on the Libyan crisis held in January 2020, the ‘Berlin 2’ conference was held on June 23, 2021 raising a number of questions. Some of the questions pertain to the future of this crisis and the outcome of such interactions, in light of the significant momentum accompanying the current internal and external developments. The post ‘Berlin 2"’conference interactions were shaped according to two tracks, one of which is optimistic about the possibility of building on the outcomes of the conference and adopting a settlement path in Libya, while the other is loaded with anticipation and uncertainty, particularly with the ongoing challenges and issues that may undermine any future developments.
Topic:: Conflict, Negotiation, Crisis Management, and Conference
Political Geography:: Middle East, Libya, and Germany

83. Governing Parameters: Will the New Governments in Israel and Iran Affect the Ongoing Tensions Between Them?

Author:: Rania Makram
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Israel and Iran are witnessing significant political changes that affected the ruling elites. The developments came in the wake of early legislative elections held in Israel in March leading to the formation of a new coalition government headed by Naftali Benett, leader of the right-wing party Yamina. In Iran, presidential elections held on June 18, were won by hardline chief justice Ebrahim Raisi. The internal political dynamics in Tel Aviv and Tehran cast a shadow on the whole political landscape in both countries, and are projected to have an impact on the trajectory of the non-traditional conflict between the two sides, which escalated over the past few months.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

84. Ethiopian Perspective: Elections in Strained Dynamics

Author:: Anwar Ibrahim
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The election, which was held in Ethiopia on Monday, June 21, 2021, was the most complicated election that the country has witnessed in more than three decades, or, more accurately, since the 1994 constitution was approved. The reason is that this election was held amid lots of internal challenges, not to mention the strong criticism of its legitimacy (both domestically and internationally) even before it was held. Ethiopians are warily looking forward to the results, which are supposed to be announced within a few days, despite that it is not unlikely that these results will escalate the tensions in an already unrest-ridden country.
Topic:: Government, Elections, Conflict, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray

85. The Perfect Conflict The Russian strategy in Yemen

Author:: Leonid Issaev
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The operation of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Syria was perceived by the world community as a demonstration of strength, unveiling Moscow and the Kremlin's readiness to defend its interests in the Middle East by military means. It is not surprising that the Russian military presence in Syria has generated a lot of speculation about the possibility of a repetition of the Syrian ‘scenario’ in other hot spots in the region, such as Yemen. We believe that such generalizations are inaccurate and simplify the multifaceted situation. First of all, the Syrian case is rather an exception for Moscow. After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the communist ideology, Russia became more pragmatic, its policy got rid of the prefix ‘pro’, and, in principle, it is trying to serve its own interests. It is not surprising that the rejection of messianic ideas forced Russia to reconsider its attitude to conflicts, including ones in the Middle East. The best example of Russian pragmatism is the Kremlin's policy on the Yemeni crisis since its beginning in 2011 until now.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, Conflict, and Air Force
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, Yemen, and Syria

86. A Choice in Distress Will the "National Dialogue" Offer a Resolution for Tunisia’s Political Crisis?

Author:: Ahmed Nazif
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The political crisis in Tunisia has been spiraling over the past months with no solution in sight. The reason, in part, is that the country’s constitution, approved in 2014, features complex intertwined interests of the governmental institutions. This situation eventually led to the current conflict between the president, on one side, and the parliament and the government, on the other. In an attempt to resolve the current gridlock, President Kais Saied, on several occasions, called for a radical change of the current political system, while the Islamist Ennahda Movement and its allies fear that they might lose the electoral privileges they have gained thanks to the power-sharing system and the current voting system. The last of Saeid’s calls came up more detailed and within a clearer framework to be shaped by “national dialogue.”
Topic:: Government, Constitution, Political Crisis, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: North Africa and Tunisia

87. Unfulfilled Hopes: Strategic Implications of Re-opening Libya’s Coastal Highway

Author:: Mustafa Gamal Omar
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: While many Libyans look forward to implement the outcome of the Berlin II Conference on Libya and achieve stability across their country, others believe that the first steps towards such stability should be through breaking the deadlock on unresolved issues. Such issues require urgent but decisive action, and the most prominent of which is the reopening of the coastal road between Sirte and Misrata. The announcement on June 20, 2021, by head of the National Unity Government, Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dbeibah, that the main coastal highway will be re-opened, following months of talks on a ceasefire, has revived Libyan hopes. The move is projected to yield significant political, security and economic benefits for the country. However, according to media reports circulated in late June, the 5+5 committee, formally named the 5+5 Libyan Joint Military Commission, decided to put off the re-opening of the vital highway, claiming that only damages will be repaired, which made the situation murky once again. The 5+5 committee, on July 2, dispelled the confusion by announcing that the highway linking Sirte to Misrata will be re-opened over the next week upon the completion of maintenance work. Member of the committee, Major General Faraj Al-Sousaa, confirmed that arrangements were underway for the re-opening.
Topic:: Government, Armed Forces, Conflict, and Ceasefire
Political Geography:: Libya and North Africa

88. Bottom-Up Change: Motives behind Erdoğan strategy in ‘politicizing’ the first religious channel for children

Author:: Abdel Latif Hegazy
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On June 7, 2021, Ali Erbaş, President of Directorate of Religious Affairs in Turkey, and İbrahim Ärän, Director of the Turkish Radio and Television Corporation (TRT), signed a cooperation protocol to establish a religious channel for children, which would be the first of its kind in Turkey. Within this context, Erbaş, said, "We have not been able to present Islamic values to children over the past years, since we used to show them animated cartoons designed by foreign companies." He emphasized the need to exert efforts to sustain children with correct religious knowledge. The government’s establishment of a religious channel for children has raised questions regarding the dimensions and motives of this step currently, particularly since there is a Turkish tendency to politicize and use religion to serve the political and electoral motives of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Topic:: Politics, Religion, Children, Islamism, and Erdogan
Political Geography:: Turkey

89. Restoring the Balance: The economic and political motives for the 'New Mashriq' Project

Author:: Muthana Al-Obeidi
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The New Mashriq Plan, which was announced in the Baghdad tripartite summit (which brought together president Abdel-Fattah El-sisi of Egypt, King Abdullah II of Jordan, and the Iraqi prime minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi), stimulated a lot of analyses, which reflected two opposing views. Some analysts seemed to be overly optimistic about the outcomes of this Iraqi-Egyptian-Jordanian project. On the other hand, others adopted a more skeptical, even pessimistic, attitude, believing that it will fail to achieve its purpose, on account of the many challenges it has to face. Despite all the analyses available about the project, questions are still being raised, such as: How did the project develop? What is its economic agenda? What about its political dimensions? And, last but not least, what will its future be like?
Topic:: Economics, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Egypt, and Jordan

90. The Likely Scenario: Possible trajectories after Tunisia’s President exceptional decisions

Author:: Ahmed Nazif
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On the 64th anniversary of the Republic, President Kais Saied chose to declare ‘state of imminent danger’, invoking the constitution shaped by the Islamist Ennahda movement. On July 25, Saied took exceptional decisions ousting the government led by Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi, freezing the activities of parliament, and stripping parliament members of legal immunity. He considers the measures necessary for saving the state. The political forces took different stands depending on their position in the political hierarchy as well as their closeness to President Saeid.
Topic:: Corruption, Government, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:: North Africa and Tunisia

91. Economic Diplomacy: The impact of Russia’s growing role on the Lebanese crisis

Author:: Nawar Samad
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: A Russian business delegation visited Lebanon in late June 2021 to offer support to the country by cultivating projects in the oil sector, development plans for the energy industry as well as the ports in Beirut and Tripoli. For the past two years, Lebanon, which is going through the worst economic and financial crisis in its history, and has been trying to secure international aid to survive, is now facing the attractive Russian economic bailout offer. Although such an offer is welcomed by Lebanon, the Russian initiative raises concerns across the West, and particularly in the United States, which is in control of Lebanon’s banking system and still has significant influence on the state’s politics and financial sector. The United States believes that it is not possible to dissociate this Russian offer from Moscow’s desire to expand its influence in a region, in which it already established military presence and gained access to the Eastern Mediterranean, where a conflict is underway over investment of newly-discovered gas fields.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economics, Financial Crisis, and Gas
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, and Lebanon

92. Double Pressure: How water shortage impacts Iran’s internal and external crises?

Author:: Rania Makram
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Iran’s water shortage crisis is neither new or surprising and was predicted by experts and officials several years ago. As far back as 2015, former Iranian agriculture minister, Isa Kalantari, warned that water scarcity would force 50 million Iranians to leave the country. Later, he claimed that a 'water war' might hit rural areas. However, this early warning has not triggered an effective policy to preempt or solve the crisis already hitting the country. More than 12,000 villages have run out of water and around 7,000 rely entirely on water deliveries by tankers, according to Hamid-Reza Mahbubfar, a member of Environmental Risks and Sustained Development. The ecologist explained that 90 percent of surface and underground water resources have been used up. The water crisis triggered a series of political upheavals due to its implications for the population in affected villages and towns. In recent weeks, protests broke out in several Iranian cities over water scarcity and the resulting environmental problems.
Topic:: Environment, Natural Resources, Water, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

93. Compound Crisis Challenges Posed by Sudan’s Faltering Transition

Author:: Hamdy Abdul Rahman
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Two years after the overthrow of Sudan’s former president Omar al-Bashir, political transition is going through a critical and highly complicated phase. The government led by Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok is facing diverse challenges and hurdles, including widespread popular protests against fuel and consumer price increases, as well as resurgence of violence in Darfur region. If the situation remains unchanged, the country can fall in a fresh structural crisis that would prompt key figures of the ousted regime to make a comeback to power. It should be noted that over the past decade, prior to the fall of al-Bashir regime, had already faced huge challenges. The secession of South Sudan caused economic shocks to Sudan, while the civil war did not only damage the Sudanese economy, but also caused an increase in the number of refugees and internally displaced persons. This article seeks to discuss the country’s political transition and challenges facing it while also explaining what the interim government should do to bring the country back to the right track.
Topic:: Government, Displacement, Crisis Management, and Transition
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

94. Legal Determinants: What is the Biden Administration's Position on the Tunisian President's Decisions?

Author:: Hussam Ibrahim
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On July 25, 2021, Tunisian President Kais Saied announced a series of decisions, most notably the dismissal of Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi and freezing the Parliament for 30 days. Although there is widespread internal support for these decisions, both at the public level and among the political forces, the Ennahda movement has adopted a stand against them, based on a misinterpretation of the views of Western countries, particularly that of the US administration headed by Joe Biden. The Ennahda believes that Washington would reject or at least condemn President Saied's decisions. However, the US administration's official moves and statements reflect its implicit approval of Saied's decisions. This raises several questions about the nature of the Biden administration's stance and why Ennahda and liberal voices in Washington failed to force the US administration to adopt a position against those extraordinary decisions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, Parliamentarism, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: North Africa, Tunisia, and United States of America

95. From Befriending to Violence: 11 Ruling Determinants of the Muslim Brotherhood's (MB) Behavior in the Region

Author:: Ammar Ali Hassan
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: It is normal and even realistic that the apparent political propensity of religious groups and organizations, led by the MB, would place the issue of "adaptation" on its agenda. Some groups are preoccupied with presenting themselves to the society by speech and presence in order to win its acceptance, particularly during the election seasons. Other groups are hostile and seek to subdue people and to change their ideas and ideals by force, refusing to advance on the map of society through peaceful settlements, where elections come as a key step. They view democracy as a "blasphemous process", which they should not consider or delve into.
Topic:: Ideology, Violence, Islamism, and Muslim Brotherhood
Political Geography:: Middle East

96. "Melian Strategy": Why does Taliban fight and negotiate at the same time?

Author:: Irfan Yar
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: As the US completes its troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan, Taliban has seized security vacuum to launch massive assaults. The group has unleashed violent chaos across the country and captured more than two-third of the territory, as per senior EU official estimates. On one hand, the insurgents have tightened their grip on seizing the provinces through military means. On the other hand, the insurgents claim that they want to resolve the issue in peaceful ways. “We are committed to finding a diplomatic solution for Afghanistan; the US-Taliban Doha agreement and the Intra-Afghan dialogue are the proofs that the Taliban want to solve the issue through negotiations,”[ii] said Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the deputy leader of the Taliban, on Wednesday, in Doha. Furthermore, Taliban leaders urge governors, military leaders, and other Jamiat Islami party leaders to surrender and put an end to the 40-years long conflict via negotiations. So, the question is, why have the Taliban fighters intensified violence and, at the same time, stress on making peace?
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Taliban, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, South Asia, and Kabul

97. Restoring the Role: The Algerian mediation role in the region, various motivators and challenges

Author:: Mahmoud Gamal
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Algeria's mediation endeavors are based on a well-established foreign policy of creating stability in the region and maintaining the status quo, for fear of any radical change that could lead to chaos and instability. This rule stems mainly from the political memory that has been lingering since the events of the ‘Black Decade’, which almost destroyed Algeria and its stability. This analysis highlights indications of the growing Algerian mediation endeavors in various recent crises in the region, such as the situation in Tunisia following president Kais Saied's decisions on July 25, 2021, the Libyan crisis and the complex political transition, the crisis of the Renaissance Dam between Egypt and Sudan on the one hand and Ethiopia on the other, as well as the crisis in Mali.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Transition, and Mediation
Political Geography:: Africa, Algeria, Ethiopia, and Mali

98. Mixed Messages: Disclosing how Ennahda Movement is hiring public relations firms in Washington

Author:: Hussam Ibrahim
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The United States, with its influential institutions, plays a significant role in influencing the course of regional dynamics in the Middle East. That is why, some regional political forces are keen to enter the American political to be able to assert some influence on Washington's position. The Ennahda movement in Tunisia is a clear example, particularly as it recognizes the importance of affecting the position of the US administration and pushing it to pursue its own interests during the current crisis with President Kais Saied. Accordingly and despite the Ennahda movement's denial of its recent contract with a PR company in Washington, the US Department of Justice confirmed the Ennahda's contract with Burson Cohn & Wolfe (BCW) dated July 28, 2021, only 3 days after the announcement of the extraordinary decisions of President Saied. Through this, the movement attempted to promote its alleged story of the ‘coup’, and to justify its position to the Biden administration, the Congress, the media and US think tanks. This raises several questions around the magnitude of the movement of the Ennahda within the US, and what messages it is attempting to deliver to US circles, and whether it will succeed in getting Washington's support on the current crisis.
Topic:: Public Relations, Crisis Management, and Ennahda Party
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, Tunisia, and United States of America

99. Appointing Mikati: Will it be the last chance for Lebanon?

Author:: Nawar Samad
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On July 26, 2021, Lebanese President Michel Aoun appointed former Prime Minister Najib Mikati, to form a new government, after Saad al-Hariri's apology ending a rough 9 months path of fruitless negotiations with President Aoun. Despite optimism surrounding the formation of the new government by Mikati, highlighted by President Aoun’s statement on August 14 that he hopes "white smoke" will appear soon with regards to the formation of a new government, a key question remains: Will Mikati succeed in dismantling the complications that hindered forming a new government, particularly with the emergence of new domestic and regional dilemmas?
Topic:: Government, Politics, Military Affairs, and Elections
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

100. Likely Escalation: Potential war over Syria’s Daraa Province after Russian roadmap

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Between August 2and August 18, clashes erupted between the Syrian regime army and the armed opposition groups in Daraa province in southern Syria, after the Syrian regime threatened military action against the groups if they do not commit to a roadmap proposed by Russia, which eventually aims to help the Syrian army retake control on the southern parts of the country.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Refugees, Syrian War, Armed Conflict, and Escalation
Political Geography:: Russia, Middle East, Syria, and Daraa

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