Publishing Institution: East-West Center / Political Geography: China

1. US Trade Policy Options for Pacific Islands States Require Washington’s Political Commitment

Author:: Marcus Noland
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The Pacific Islands have emerged as a zone of contestation in the ongoing rivalry between China and the United States. While the US has long been the dominant military power in the region, China is raising its profile through activities like port visits, military exercises, and establishing diplomatic and security ties with regional states like Kiribati and the Solomon Islands. In 2018, Chinese leader Xi Jinping visited Papua New Guinea for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. President Biden was supposed to visit PNG in May 2023, in the first ever visit of a sitting US president to the Pacific Islands, but that trip was scuttled due to the debt ceiling fiasco in Washington. In the economics sphere, the US has attempted to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) together with Japan and Australia through the Blue Dot Network and the Indo-Pacific Infrastructure Trilateral to promote high-quality, transparent, and sustainable infrastructure development. The region contains considerable natural resources, and the US has been working with Pacific Island nations to promote sustainable resource management, in contrast to China’s alleged illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing in the Pacific. What has been missing, however, is a trade policy component to the US strategy to counterbalance China’s exploration of a free trade agreement with the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Politics, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:: China, North America, United States of America, and Pacific Islands

2. Abrogating the Visiting Forces Agreement: Its Effects on Philippines’ Security and Stability in Southeast Asia

Author:: Renato Acosta
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: During much of 2022, the defense and security alliance between the United States of America and the Philippines, anchored on and reinforced by the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT, teetered on the brink of collapse. Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte brought relations to the brink through attempts to scuttle the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). This move would only embolden Chinese challenges to Manila’s territorial integrity and its aspirations to dominate Southeast Asia and the South China Sea. While the Duterte administration recited parochial reasons to terminate the VFA, pundits from the security and diplomatic sectors viewed Duterte’s attempts as a pretext to steer the Philippines towards China under his own brand and definition of an independent foreign policy. During his term, Duterte reiterated that President Xi Jinping and other Chinese officials were his friends. He also publicly declared that the Kalayaan Island Group (KIG), a northeastern section of the Spratly Islands, was already in physical control and possession of Beijing due to the unchallenged presence of its military and maritime militia vessels there. Given these statements, Duterte has constantly received criticism over his defeatist stance towards China.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Politics, Armed Forces, and Instability
Political Geography:: China, Philippines, Southeast Asia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

3. Resilient Industry Ecochains for the US-Taiwan Partnership

Author:: Stephen Su
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Stephen Su, Senior Vice President and General Director of the Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) of Taiwan, explains that the "United States and Taiwan can work closely together to develop resilient industry ecochains for key industries such as semiconductors, telecommunications, automotive, biotech, machinery, etc."
Topic:: Partnerships, Economy, Industry, Resilience, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4. US-Taiwan Relations and the National Security vs. Human Rights Fallacy

Author:: Randall G. Schriver and Jennifer Hong Whetsell
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The Honorable Randall G. Schriver, Chairman of the Board at the Project 2049 Institute and former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Affairs, & Jennifer K. Hong Whetsell, Senior Director at the Project 2049 Institute, explain that "Taiwan, a leading democracy and one of the freest countries in the world, continues to combat coercive and annihilative threats from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), while not wavering on human rights."
Topic:: Human Rights, National Security, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

5. Will the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment be a Game-changer in the Indo-Pacific?

Author:: Don McLain Gill
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Mr. Don McLain Gill, Philippines-based geopolitical analyst and author, explains that the G7 launched the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) at an opportune time as the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly derailed China’s Belt and Road Initiative’s (BRI) momentum and Beijing’s questionable lending practices have come under greater scrutiny.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Partnerships, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Investment, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Indo-Pacific

6. Ukraine Will Not Happen in Asia: America Seeks to Check China through Taiwan Visit and Quad Initiatives

Author:: Sarosh Bana
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Sarosh Bana, Executive Editor of Business India in Mumbai and former board member of the East-West Centre (EWC) Association—an organization representing the more than 65,000 individuals who have participated in East-West Center programs,
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Quad Alliance
Political Geography:: China, Ukraine, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

7. FSM Engagement with the United States and China: A Lesson Learned for the Pacific Islands

Author:: Gonzaga Puas
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Dr. Gonzaga Puas, Professor at Pacific Islands University and Founder of Micronesia Institute of Research and Development, explains that the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) is at a "junction, where the confluence of the two super-powers [the United States and China] meet... FSM is aware of its strategic importance and is judiciously managing the influence of both superpowers."
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, United States of America, Oceania, and Micronesia

8. From Strategic Ambiguity to Strategic Clarity? The Dynamics of South Korea’s Navigation of US-China Competition

Author:: Clint Work
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Dr. Clint Work, Nonresident Fellow with the Henry L. Stimson Center's 38 North Program, explains that while President Yoon has made it clear that he will opt for strategic clarity amidst a growing US-China rivalry, he must navigate the challenges all previous ROK presidents have faced in dealing with Beijing
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

9. China’s Dilemmas in Bailing Out Debt-Ridden Sri Lanka

Author:: Ganeshan Wignaraja
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Ganeshan Wignaraja, a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS) of the National University of Singapore and a Senior Research Associate at the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) in London, explains that "Sri Lanka is now stuck in a ‘debt trap’. However, the debt trap is not wholly Chinese."
Topic:: Debt, Development, Diplomacy, and Economics
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Sri Lanka

10. Asia’s Push For Monetary Alternatives

Author:: Marcus Noland
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: For the last quarter century, Asia has been seeking greater autonomy within the existing international monetary system. While the region has had the resources to go its own way, intraregional rivalries and a reluctance to damage ties to the US and the International Monetary Fund have put a damper on regional initiatives. Now the ascendency of China offers a path toward greater regional autonomy in monetary affairs. Asia, led by China, has been playing a two-track strategy pushing for greater influence within the existing global institutions, while developing its own parallel institutions such as the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Use of the Chinese renminbi will likely grow as a trade invoicing currency but expanded use of the renminbi as a reserve currency is more uncertain. It is possible that the dollar-centered international financial system could evolve into a multipolar system with multiple currencies playing key roles.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Finance, Economy, and Investment
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, East Asia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

11. After Hegemony: Japan’s role and dilemma in maintaining the rules-based order

Author:: Yu Inagaki
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The phrase “rules-based order” has recently become a recurring theme in the Japan-US alliance . This is based on the recognition that the liberal international order (LIO)—which the United States built and maintained, and that Japan has significantly benefited from—is now being challenged. While the war in Ukraine has heightened the sense of crisis over global power dynamics, China has been considered the main threat to the LIO. The United States has identified China as not just a security threat but a “ most consequential strategic competitor and the pacing challenge ,” and Japan has come to view the current international environment from a larger perspective, international order. In fact, Japan has expected to play a leading role in maintaining the LIO as US international engagement weakened under the Trump administration. However, is it possible for Japan, a constrained middle power, to maintain the existing order in the face of a declining hegemon and rising challengers? This raises a classic question in international relations: What will happen to the international order after hegemony; and what can and will Japan, occupying a particular place and role in the international system, be able and willing to do regarding international order?
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Politics, Hegemony, and International Order
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

12. Three Dilemmas Facing the Indo-Pacific’s Regional Order

Author:: Arzan Tarapore
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: For decades, an international order delivered security and prosperity to the Indo-Pacific. The order was based on U.S. military hegemony and alliances that preserved the strategic status quo and multilateral cooperation that enabled economic development and growth. That order is now under strain. The COVID-19 pandemic is challenging the order’s founding principles, prompting some regional states to limit their interdependency in certain sensitive sectors under the guise of supply chain resilience. The pandemic was not the first challenge to test the order; serious threats began to emerge over a decade ago, with the global financial crisis of 2008, and were sharply exacerbated by China’s economic rise and strategic revisionism, which threatens U.S. military and economic primacy and the territorial status quo. The United States, India, and like-minded middle-power partners from the Indo-Pacific and Europe have struggled to respond effectively. The other contributions in this series on navigating U.S.-China competition in the Indo-Pacific show how these states have sought to recover from the pandemic while also answering structural threats of revisionism and economic headwinds from decoupling, protectionism and changing integration patterns. Cutting across those specific policy issues are three overarching dilemmas that each state will be forced to resolve when making policy. How policymakers navigate these dilemmas will define the policy settings of their regional strategy.
Topic:: Security, Economic Growth, Multilateralism, Regional Integration, Economic Development, Strategic Competition, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Europe, South Asia, India, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

13. Covid’s Impact on India’s Soft Power in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Rani Mullen
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Understanding India’s soft power in the Indo-Pacific and the possible impact of its recent decline is essential to a well-informed American strategy in the region. As the world’s second-most populous country and largest democracy, India is an important power and American partner, as highlighted in President Biden’s March 2021 Interim National Security Strategic Guidance, which also identified the Indo-Pacific as vital to American national interests. The Great Power competition in the Indo-Pacific and India’s hard power has been analyzed in other articles in this series. As Joseph Nye pointed out in the 1980s, successful states require both hard and soft power–the wherewithal to coerce as well as the ability to entice and influence the behavior of other countries without force. America’s partnership with India is based not only on the mutual strategic interest of countering China but also on the soft power element of shared democratic values. At the same time, India’s ability to persuade regional countries to partner with it, despite it not having China’s deep pockets or hard power, is key to keeping the Indo-Pacific free and open.
Topic:: Soft Power, COVID-19, Strategic Interests, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, India, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

14. Re-thinking Coalitions: The United States in a World of Great Power Competition

Author:: Timothy D. Hoyt
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: In 2018, the United States government released The National Security Strategy of the United States and its related National Defense Strategy.1 Each document identified key changes in the national security environment, focusing on the emergence of “great power competition” with both Russia and China. President Biden’s interim national security guidance, issued in March 2021, is more circumspect. The guidance avoids the term “great power competition” but points out China’s increased assertiveness and its potential to mount a challenge to the current international system, as well as Russia’s continued interest in expanding global influence.2 The US-China competition, in particular, is regularly compared to the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union.3 The Cold War analogy should be used with great caution. It is relatively anomalous in the history of international relations – the result of a unique combination of catastrophic war, which destroyed most of the then great powers, and fundamentally incompatible ideological positions of the two remaining great powers. Similarly, efforts to compare the U.S.-China competition to other bipolar competitions should be made cautiously as well.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Power Politics, and Coalition
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and United States of America

15. India’s Networking Response to the Chinese Threat

Author:: Rajesh Basrur
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: India has experienced rising tensions with China in recent years, as demonstrated by two border crises in 2017 and 2020-21. The second event saw the death of some 20 Indian troops, and at least 4 Chinese soldiers, in hand-to-hand combat – the first fatalities in nearly half a century of periodic border face-offs. New Delhi’s policy response has spanned both internal and external balancing. The former has involved augmenting India’s capacity to engage in limited combat of the type that nuclear-armed states have occasionally fought, as did the Soviet Union and China in 1969 and India and Pakistan in 1999. The Indian military has bolstered its border by deploying combat troops, cruise missiles, and advanced combat aircraft. However, China has done much the same, putting pressure on India to upscale its military capabilities. Simultaneously, India has tried to reduce its dependence on the Chinese economy, a more complicated task. Despite a 10 percent decline in bilateral trade owing to the Covid-19 pandemic and border tensions, China was India’s largest trading partner ($77.7 billion) in 2020. The Narendra Modi government sharply cut Chinese investment when the 2020 border confrontation in Ladakh broke out, expelling major Chinese companies like TikTok, WeChat, and UC Browser. Despite these measures, India’s ability to shut China out of its economy is limited. The Indian market depends heavily on Chinese electronic components (70 percent in value terms), pharmaceutical ingredients (70 percent), and consumer durables (45 percent).
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, India, and Asia

16. India’s Options in a Contested Environment: Constraints and Prospects

Author:: Prakash Gopal
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The past year has witnessed tumultuous and unforeseen changes in the global geopolitical landscape due to the pandemic. While India struggles to contain its devastating second wave, it is simultaneously confronted with a significant national security challenge from across the disputed Himalayan border with China. A skirmish along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) that started in May 2020 escalated rapidly into a full-blown crisis, with clashes in Galwan on June 15, 2020, causing casualties on both sides. After multiple rounds of talks, the crisis remains unresolved and has starkly exposed India’s lack of credible deterrence that could either deny or punish China’s belligerence across the unsettled border. In response to the border crisis, the Indian government promoted and contributed to the rapid coalescence of the quadrilateral security dialogue (Quad)—a loose coalition of the United States, Japan, Australia, and India. Notable milestones in the Quad’s accelerated development include the addition of Australia in the Malabar series of naval exercises and several high-level meetings of officials from the four countries, the highest-profile of which being the first leaders’ summit in March 2021. The assumption that India’s sudden moves to consolidate the Quad were driven primarily by Chinese actions along the LAC may be debated. Nevertheless, if that is the case, it follows that India views its renewed efforts in coalition-building as part of a solution to its China problem. Though the Quad may be useful in tackling security threats in the larger Indo-Pacific region, in the near term, it is unlikely to meaningfully contribute to bolstering India’s ability to deter China along land borders or in the maritime domain.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, Geopolitics, Borders, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, and India

17. The Prospects of Thailand-U.S. Economic Cooperation

Author:: Kaewkamol Karen Pitakdumrongkit
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Dr. Kaewkamol Pitakdumrongkit, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) of Nanyang Technological University, Singapore., explains that “data runs contrary to the perception that Bangkok is leaning towards Beijing… Thailand embraces American economic clout while dreading its Chinese counterpart.”
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Trade, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: China, North America, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

18. Hun Sen's Mistake? The Domestic Political Ramifications of His Chinese Shelter

Author:: Charles Dunst
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen’s close relationship with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has led scholars and policymakers alike to suggest that Beijing’s backing will keep him in power. While Hun Sen himself seems to believe this to be true, his reliance on China is actually enflaming Cambodian discontent to such an extent that his planned patrimonial succession is at risk. Given the fragility of regimes mid-succession, Hun Sen’s Chinese shelter is augmenting the potential of his clan’s fall. Yet as Hun Sen faces increased domestic opposition, he will only further deepen ties with China in hopes of remaining in power, thereby creating a vicious cycle from which escaping will prove difficult.
Topic:: International Relations, Power Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Cambodia, and Southeast Asia

19. Negotiating Transboundary River Governance in Myanmar

Author:: Khin Ohnmar Htwe
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Myanmar lies in the northwestern part of Indo-Chinese Peninsular or mainland South-East Asia. It is bounded by China on the north and north-east, Laos on the east, Thailand on the south-east, and Bangladesh and India on the west. There are 7 major drainage areas or catchment areas in Myanmar comprising a series of river- valleys running from north to south. The drainage areas in Myanmar are Ayeyarwady and Chindwin Rivers and tributaries (55.05%), Thanlwin (Salween) River and tributaries (18.43%), Sittaung River and tributaries (5.38%), Kaladan and Lemyo Rivers and tributaries (3.76%), Yangon River and tributaries (2.96%), Tanintharyi River and tributaries (2.66%), and Minor Coastal Streams (11.76%). Myanmar possesses 12% of Asia’s fresh water resources and 16% of that of the ASEAN nations. Growing nationwide demand for fresh water has heightened the challenges of water security. The transboundary river basins along the border line of Myanmar and neighboring countries are the Mekong, Thanlwin (Salween), Thaungyin (Moai), Naf, and Manipu rivers. The Mekong River is also an important transboundary river for Myanmar which it shares with China, Laos, and Thailand. The Mekong River, with a length of about 2,700 miles (4,350 km), rises in southeastern Qinghai Province, China, flows through the eastern part of the Tibet Autonomous Region and Yunnan Province, and forms part of the international border between Myanmar (Burma) and Laos, as well as between Laos and Thailand. The Mekong River meets the China–Myanmar border and flows about six miles along that border until it reaches the tripoint of China, Myanmar, and Laos. From there it flows southwest and forms the border of Myanmar and Laos for about 60 miles until it arrives at the tripoint of Myanmar, Laos, and Thailand. This is also the point of confluence between the Ruak River (which follows the Thai–Myanmar border) and the Mekong.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Water, Governance, and Borders
Political Geography:: Bangladesh, China, India, Thailand, Southeast Asia, Laos, and Myanmar

20. Challenges and Responses to COVID-19: Experience from Asia

Author:: Nancy Davis Lewis and Jonathan D. Mayer
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Experience in Asia suggests that public health and medical capacity are critical for an effective response to an emerging infectious disease. Political will and previous experience with disease outbreaks also play a role. Singapore ignored an important segment of its population and is now experiencing a huge spike in cases. China and Vietnam were able to enforce draconian measures, while in Japan and Hong Kong, civil society had a greater role in initiating effective controls. In several countries, local political outcomes have been affected by the perceived success or failure of leaders in controlling the crisis.
Topic:: Health Care Policy, Leadership, Crisis Management, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, Vietnam, Singapore, and Hong Kong

21. US-China Economic Relations Under Pressure From COVID-19

Author:: Christopher A. McNally
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: With both the US and China facing a long economic slowdown, the bilateral relationship between the globe's two largest economies faces massive challenges. Making matters worse, Washington and Beijing have attempted to divert domestic attention away from their own substantial shortcomings by blaming each other. Given the economic uncertainty, each side has limited leverage to force the other into making concessions. Harsh rhetoric only serves to inflame tensions at the worst possible time. For better or worse, the US and China are locked in a messy economic marriage. A divorce at this time would exact an enormous cost in an already weakened economy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

22. New Findings on Links between Urban Expansion and Viral Disease in Vietnam Offer Lessons for COVID-19

Author:: James H. Spencer, Sumeet Saksena, and Jefferson Fox
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The current COVID-19 pandemic, which started in Wuhan, China, underscores what the public health community has warned about for more than two decades—the risk of viral diseases capable of spreading from animal to human hosts. The first outbreaks of “bird flu” (highly pathogenic avian influenza—HPAI, subtype H5N1)—raised similar concerns 20 years ago, concerns that have persisted with the outbreak of SARS in 2002–2004 and COVID-19 today. A recent study compared information on infrastructure and other aspects of economic development in Vietnam with outbreaks of avian influenza. While this research focuses on avian influenza in Vietnam, the study of links between infrastructure characteristics and new and reemerging health risks has broad applicability, especially given the global importance of today’s rapidly expanding urban landscapes.
Topic:: Infectious Diseases, Urban, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Vietnam

23. China is Not Conducting Debt Trap Diplomacy in the Pacific--At Least Not Yet

Author:: Jonathan Pryke
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: In an atmosphere of heightened geostrategic competition, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has raised questions about the risk of debt problems in less-developed countries. Such risks are especially worrying for the small and fragile economies of the Pacific. A close look at the evidence suggests that China has not been engaged in debt-trap diplomacy in the Pacific, at least not so far. Nonetheless, if future Chinese lending continues on a business-as-usual basis, serious problems of debt sustainability will arise, and concerns about quality and corruption are valid.There have been recent signs that both China and Pacific Island governments recognize the need for reform. China needs to adopt formal lending rules similar to those of the multilateral development banks, providing more favorable terms to countries at greater risk of debt distress. Alternative approaches might include replacing or partially replacing EXIM loans with the interest-free loans and grants that the Chinese Ministry of Commerce already provides.
Topic:: Debt, Development, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Asia-Pacific

24. China's Pandemic Diplomacy

Author:: Denny Roy
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic threatened to damage China’s international reputation just as the Chinese government under Xi Jinping was peaking in its promotion of China as a model political system and superior international citizen. Beijing launched a massive diplomatic effort aimed at both foreign governments and foreign societies. The goal was to overcome initial negative publicity and to recast China as an efficient and heroic country in the eyes of international public opinion. The crisis created an opening for China to make gains in its international leadership credentials as the world saw the superpower United States falter. Ultimately, however, Chinese pandemic diplomacy contributed to a net decrease in China’s global prestige, largely because domestic political imperatives motivated behavior that generated international disapproval and distrust for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) government. This paper summarizes the content of Chinese pandemic diplomacy through the key period of January through May 20201, identifies specific strengths and weaknesses of China’s effort, and briefly assesses its global impact.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

25. Cooperation Between the United States and Pakistan: What is the Future?

Author:: Riaz A. Khokhar
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Within the Indo-Pacific region, the United States and Pakistan have sharply divergent strategic objectives. While American objectives have changed over time, focusing in recent years on rivalry with China, Pakistan’s strategic objective has remained constant—to maintain a balance of power with India. Yet Pakistan retains close strategic and economic ties with China, and the United States considers India an important strategic partner. Nevertheless, the two countries have worked together for nearly two decades toward two tactical goals—achieving a political settlement in Afghanistan and eliminating terrorism in South Asia. There is potential for them to cooperate more broadly, for example, increasing direct foreign investment to Pakistan and helping Islamabad balance its relations with the United States and China. Washington’s willingness to expand such cooperation will depend on Pakistan’s cooperation in fighting terrorism in the region.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Terrorism, Power Politics, Foreign Direct Investment, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, South Asia, India, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

26. Defending the Maritime Rules-Based Order: Regional Responses to the South China Sea Disputes

Author:: Rebecca Strating
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The seas are an increasingly important domain for understanding the balance-of-power dynamics between a rising People’s Republic of China and the United States. Specifically, disputes in the South China Sea have intensified over the past decade. Multifaceted disputes concern overlapping claims to territory and maritime jurisdiction, strategic control over maritime domain, and differences in legal interpretations of freedom of navigation. These disputes have become a highly visible microcosm of a broader contest between a maritime order underpinned by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and challenger conceptions of order that see a bigger role for rising powers in generating new rules and alternative interpretations of existing international law. This issue examines the responses of non-claimant regional states—India, Australia, South Korea, and Japan—to the South China Sea disputes.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, Maritime, and Jurisdiction
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, United States of America, and South China Sea

27. Has U.S. Government Angst over the China Danger Diminished?

Author:: Robert Sutter
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The so-called “truce” in the trade war with the signing of the phase one U.S.-China trade agreement on January 15 comes amid indicators that the intense U.S. government consensus pushback against a wide range of perceived challenges posed by China may be subsiding.
Topic:: Government, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Trade Wars
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

28. Taiwan's 2020 Election and Its Implications for the New Southbound Policy

Author:: H. H. Michael Hsiao and Alan H. Yang
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The elections in January 2020 marked a new era for Taiwan, clearly demonstrating citizens’ resistance to China. The results showed that incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen, leader of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), was re-elected with a landslide victory of 8.17 million votes (57.1%) which is higher than the previous record high of 7.65 million votes obtained by the Kuomintang (KMT) President Ma Ying Jeou in 2008. Michael Hsiao and Alan Yang, Chairman and Executive Director, respectively, of the Taiwan‐Asia Exchange Foundation in Taiwan, explain that “The Taiwanese people firmly defended Taiwan’s sovereignty and cherished democracy through free and open elections.”
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Sovereignty, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

29. Taking Stock of United States-Vietnam Relations 45 Years After the Fall of Saigon

Author:: Huong Le Thu
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Dr. Huong Le Thu, Senior Analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, explains that “To many, shared concerns about China are the driving force for Vietnam‐U.S. relations.”
Topic:: Bilateral Relations and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: China, Vietnam, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

30. Mongolia's Response to Increasing U.S.-China-Russia Rivalry in Asia

Author:: Alicia Campi
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Dr Alicia Campi, President of the Mongolia Society, explains that “The [“Third Neighbor”] policy was reinterpreted in content and meaning to include cultural and economic partners as diverse as India, Brazil, Kuwait, Turkey, Vietnam, and Iran. With increased superpower rivalry in its region, Mongolia has expanded this basic policy.”
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Partnerships, and Economy
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Turkey, India, Mongolia, Asia, Kuwait, Brazil, North America, and United States of America

31. Next Steps for US-Japan Collaboration on Energy Infrastructure

Author:: Courtney Weatherby
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has re-centered discussion of geopolitical competition in Asia around infrastructure. Responding both to BRI and the region’s well-known infrastructure gap, the United States has launched efforts to unlock US private investment for infrastructure. Japan’s engagements in the region emphasize high-quality infrastructure and best practices (an implicit criticism of China’s sometimes less rigorous standards). The foreign policy approaches of the United States and Japan dovetail nicely and have led to many new initiatives and institutional partnerships, as well as the quality-focused Blue Dot Network. But despite the two countries’ intentions to work collaboratively, their efforts have been held back by differences in organizational practices, the lengthy overhaul of US financing, and a lack of immediate movement from US-Japan consortia. For now, a less ambitious approach of closely coordinating technical assistance and conditional funding on proposed projects may serve as a model for closer US-Japan collaboration as efforts mature.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Renewable Energy, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, and United States of America

32. A Search for Independence in President Duterte’s Foreign Policy

Author:: Denise Layla P. Miram
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The Duterte administraƟon’s move toward favoring non‐tradiƟonal partners above other equally valuable— and perhaps more beneficial—trade and development partners, such as the United States and the European Union, has significantly changed the direcƟon of the country’s foreign policy and impacted its naƟonal security. While the government maintains that it is pursuing an “independent foreign policy”, many experts have criƟcized the administraƟon’s supposed strategy for its lack of clarity and posiƟon. In the absence of clear guidelines and a well‐defined vision, the administraƟon has merely pivoted away from one superpower, its treaty ally in the US, to global superpowers China and Russia.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Trade, and Rodrigo Duterte
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Philippines, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

33. Now I Know my ABCs: U.S.-China Policy on AI, Big Data, and Cloud Computing

Author:: Wenhong Chen
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Artificial Intelligence (AI), Big Data, and Cloud Computing (ABC) have generated unprecedented opportunities and challenges for economic competitiveness, national security, and law and order, as well as the future of work. ABC policies and practices have become contentious issues in U.S.-China bilateral relations. Pundits see a U.S.-China AI race and are already debating which country will win. Kaifu Lee, the CEO of Sinovation Ventures, believes that China will exceed the United States in AI in about five years. Others argue that China will never catch up. This essay focuses on two issues: the comparative ABC strengths of the United States and China in data and research and development (R&D); and the emerging ABC policies and practices in the two nations. Empirical analysis suggests that the United States and China lead in different areas. Compared to China’s top-down, whole-of-government, national- strategy approach, the U.S. ABC policy has been less articulated but is evolving.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Strategic Competition, Data, and Cloud Computing
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

34. Chinese, Japanese, and Korean Inroads into Central Asia: Comparative Analysis of the Economic Cooperation Roadmaps for Uzbekistan

Author:: Timur Dadabaev
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: China, Japan, and South Korea have regarded Central Asia as a new Asian frontier in their foreign policies since the collapse of the Soviet Union. With time, their policies evolved into regionbuilding initiatives exemplified by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Belt and Road Initiative, Central Asia plus Japan Dialogue Forum, and Korea-Central Asia Cooperation Forum. This paper raises the following research questions: What are the areas of interest for China, Japan, and Korea in their relations with Central Asian states and Uzbekistan in particular? What are the patterns of agenda setting in establishing intergovernmental cooperation? What are the particular projects that these states initiate? What are the objectives of projects initiated within these areas of interest? How competitive or complementary are these projects of China, Japan, and Korea? Throughout, Chinese, Japanese, and Korean “Silk Road” roadmaps with Uzbekistan are discussed to highlight their similarities and differences.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economy, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Central Asia, Asia, South Korea, and Uzbekistan

35. Domestic Politics Force India's Withdrawal from RCEP and Broader Trade Disengagement

Author:: Amitendu Palit
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations concluded at the ASEAN Summit in Bangkok on November 4, 2019. Fifteen RCEP members, including the ten-ASEAN countries, and Australia, China, Japan, Korea and New Zealand, agreed to commence preparation of the legal text of the agreement for signing in 2020. India was the only member to opt out, citing significant unresolved outstanding issues. India’s decision was surprising as it actively participated in the negotiations that lasted for 29 rounds and went on for more than six years since beginning in 2013. Domestic pressures forced Prime Minister Modi to withdraw India from RCEP at the last minute. It also points to disengagement becoming the prominent character of India’s trade policy as domestic protectionist interests successfully undermine outward-oriented economic visions.
Topic:: Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Economy, Trade, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: China, India, and Asia

36. Addressing China's Exported Emissions

Author:: Amy Namur
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Once known as the world's top carbon polluter, China has recently recommitted itself as a leader in sustainability and renewable energy. Moving to fill the gaps left by the United States at the Paris Climate Talks, China has ramped up its renewable energy commitments, including plans to cap its CO2 emissions, drastically increase forest stocks, and expand its non-fossil fuel market share to 20 percent, all by 2030. This move has been highly favorable for Chinese diplomatic relations with its Southeast and Pacific Island neighbors who have labeled climate change as a top priority. Domestically the extensive health impacts of air pollution in China has rallied public opinion against the pollution industry, making the move to green energy both a wide berth of support. While still the highest CO2 emitting country in the world, China has made significant investments in renewable energy development and currently leads the planet in renewable investments abroad. China’s domestic commitment to sustainability has been ambitious; however, meeting these goals has created one of the biggest energy paradoxes of the 21st century.
Topic:: Climate Change, Renewable Energy, Sustainability, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: China and Asia

37. Overestimating the Power if China's BRI- Lessons Drawn from Japanese ODA Engagement

Author:: Raymond Yamamoto
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proposed by President Xi Jinping in 2013 is among the most ambitious global visions promoted by one country. The general goal of BRI is the provision of economic infrastructure worth at least $1 trillion to improve the land and sea routes between Asia, Africa, and Europe. In order to attract additional international investments to finance the initiative, China even created a multilateral bank – the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) — in 2015. However, China’s ambitious BRI strategy has met considerable criticism from politicians and policy-makers, journalists, analysts, and scholars. These criticisms include accusations of pursuing debt-trap diplomacy to gain concessions from countries participating in BRI. The decision of Sri Lanka in 2018 to lease Hambantota port to China in order to reduce its BRI debt burden is often cited as a prime example. Together with growing Chinese military strength and assertiveness in the South and East China Seas, BRI is being framed as an instrument deployed by China to build up its global dominance.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

38. Policy Response to Low Fertility in China: Too Little, Too Late?

Author:: Wang Feng
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: In 1970, Chinese women were having an average of nearly six children each. Only nine years later, this gure had dropped to an average of 2.7 children per woman. This steep fertility decline was achieved before the Chinese government introduced the infamous one-child policy. Today, at 1.5 children per woman, the fertility rate in China is one of the lowest in the world. Such a low fertility level leads to extreme population aging— expansion of the proportion of the elderly in a population, with relatively few children to grow up and care for their aging parents and few workers to pay for social services or drive economic growth. China’s birth-control policies are now largely relaxed, but new programs are needed to provide healthcare and support for the growing elderly population and to encourage young people to have children. It will be increasingly di cult to fund such programs, however, as China’s unprecedented pace of economic growth inevitably slows down.
Topic:: Population, Health Care Policy, and Political and institutional effectiveness
Political Geography:: China

39. Beyond Manufacturing: Developing the Service Sector to Drive Growth in the PRC

Author:: Wei Wang, Gemma Estrada, Jurgen Conrad, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Donghyun Park
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: As demand from global markets declines, slowing exports of manufactured goods from the People's Republic of China means the country must increasingly rely on domestic markets for growth. Unlike manufactured goods, services—those "intangible" products that include everything from transportation to scientific research to real estate services—are geared more toward domestic markets. Services, then, will be key to the rebalancing process. However, while the service sector has grown rapidly in the PRC, it continues to lag behind other countries at similar stages of development. In addition, the sector is dominated by traditional low-end types of services, rather than knowledge-intensive services. Heavy regulatory burdens, barriers to trade in services, and an unfavorable policy environment have been major obstacles to upgrading the sector and improving its competitiveness. Policy reform should focus on strengthening competition to raise productivity, with the goal of increasing not only the number of jobs and contribution to GDP, but also of positioning the service sector to compete internationally and spur export growth.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Markets, Political Economy, Reform, and GDP
Political Geography:: China

40. Mega-FTAs and the Trade-Security Nexus: The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)

Author:: Vinod K. Aggarwal
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The rise of a multiplicity of diverse bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) has led countries to pursue mega-FTAs to manage the growing complexity of global trade arrangements. The US and China are promoting rival accords: the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which would encompass 800 million people and almost 40 percent of global GDP, is a centerpiece of the Obama Asia Pacific strategy. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) would account for 30 percent of global GDP, with a population of over three billion people, creating the largest FTA in the world. TPP advocates assert that it will strengthen the US’ strategic role in the region, in part by countering China’s membership in the RCEP. These claims, made in response to growing skepticism in the United States about the value of liberalized trade, overemphasize the TPP’s strategic value. At the same time, projecting the economic impact of the TPP is thorny, given the deal’s scope and the diversity of countries involved.
Political Geography:: China

41. At the Crossroads: The TPP, AIIB, and Japan's Foreign Economic Strategy

Author:: Saori N. Katada
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: In 2015, two mega-initiatives took shape that will affect economic relations in the Asia-Pacific region: the US-promoted Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement and the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Although they address different needs, both are expected to have profound effects on Asia's economic governance in the near future, and will shape economic norms in the Asia Pacific and beyond. Japan has joined the TPP but stayed out of the AIIB, decisions that might seem counterintuitive considering its history of resisting trade liberalization and of promoting infrastructure investment. Is Japan simply favoring its US ally over rival China? Or is it that Japan's position on the TPP and AIIB aligns with its own economic priorities, and enhances its geo-economic advantage? With a US-China competition over economic ideas and regional strategies, Japan occupies a unique position that may allow it to influence the direction of Asia-Pacific economic governance, which is now being battled out by the two "titans."
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: China and Asia

42. S-Japan Relations and Southeast Asia: Meeting Regional Demands

Author:: Saul P. Limaye and Tsutomu Kikuchi
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Until recently, Southeast Asia had not been a region of sustained focus for the US-Japan relationship. But the situation is changing. The international relations of the Asia-Pacific is becoming more "multipolarized." This requires the US and Japan to think about the future of the region beyond the issue of US-China relations, which has preoccupied past discussions. A number of nations and institutions in the Asia-Pacific region will substantially affect the region's future. Southeast Asian nations and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are among them. A new era of more coordinated, sustained, and combined commercial and security involvement by the US and Japan in Southeast Asia may be at hand. In light of these changes, the East-West Center in Washington (EWCW), in collaboration with the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA), and through the support of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation (SPF), initiated a dialogue with Southeast Asians about their perspectives on how the US-Japan relationship and alliance could or should approach cooperation with the region.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Markets, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, and Asia-Pacific

43. From Catching Up to Forging Ahead in Advanced Manufacturing—Reflections on China’s Future of Jobshina's Evolving Role in Latin America: Can it Be a Win-Win?

Author:: Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: This paper explores what we know about possible employment effects of the 10-year plan, issued by the State Council on May 19, 2015, entitled Made in China 2025. MIC2025 was designed to address China’s emerging labor shortage challenge. To achieve this goal, the plan seeks to boost labor productivity through an increased use of robots and through network-based upgrading of the entire industrial value chain and related services. How might the projected increase in labor productivity affect the creation and quality of jobs in China? Will China’s push into advanced manufacturing now move the country’s manufacturing employment closer to the pattern of “employment de-industrialization” observed in the US and other industrialized countries? How China will cope with the advanced manufacturing challenge for employment will have major implications not only for the US and other industrialized countries, but also for emerging economies and, most importantly for the majority of developing countries that are still struggling as latecomers to labor-intensive industrial manufacturing. The paper lays out objectives of the MIC 2025 plan and highlights a failure of Chinese policy makers to take into account employment effects and other labor market issues when they design their grand visions of industrial policy. The paper finds that until 2014, manufacturing has acted as an employment absorber in China. However new data on unemployment, labor force participation and income inequality signal that China may now be moving towards an “employment de-industrialization” pattern, unless enough knowledge-intensive service jobs will be created in China’s growing information economy. The paper concludes with implications for policy and further research.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, Markets, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: China

44. Beyond Manufacturing: Developing the Service Sector to Drive Growth in the PRC

Author:: Wei Wang, Gemma Estrada, Jurgen Conrad, Sang-Hyo Lee, and Donghyun Park
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: As demand from global markets declines, slowing exports of manufactured goods from the People's Republic of China means the country must increasingly rely on domestic markets for growth. Unlike manufactured goods, services—those "intangible" products that include everything from transportation to scientific research to real estate services—are geared more toward domestic markets. Services, then, will be key to the rebalancing process. However, while the service sector has grown rapidly in the PRC, it continues to lag behind other countries at similar stages of development. In addition, the sector is dominated by traditional low-end types of services, rather than knowledge-intensive services. Heavy regulatory burdens, barriers to trade in services, and an unfavorable policy environment have been major obstacles to upgrading the sector and improving its competitiveness. Policy reform should focus on strengthening competition to raise productivity, with the goal of increasing not only the number of jobs and contribution to GDP, but also of positioning the service sector to compete internationally and spur export growth.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Reform, and GDP
Political Geography:: China

45. The North Korea Crisis and Regional Responses

Author:: Ching-Chang Chen, Denny Roy, and Utpal Vyas
Publication Date:: 04-2015
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The Kim Jong Un (KJU) regime, since its inception, has ratcheted up tension on the Korean Peninsula. His decision to dishonor what he had agreed to—a moratorium on nuclear tests and long-range missile launches as well as the return of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) inspectors to Yongbyon—at several rounds of bilateral talks with the United States in February 2012 confirmed the belief that North Korea is a historically unpredictable and unreliable actor. Because the new North Korean leadership needed to fulfill its promise that North Korea would enter an “era of being a strong and prosperous nation ( gangseongdaeguk ),” pursuing economic recovery by easing tension through reconciliation with the international community, including the United States, was of significance. North Korea could have obtained nutritional assistance including corn, soy beans, vegetable oils, and ready-to-eat therapeutic food, but instead it initiated a string of provocations and hostile threats, which brought China's patience to the limits, strengthened UN sanctions, and consolidated the US position not to engage with North Korea before Pyongyang shows concrete steps for denuclearization. Hence, for the international observers, North Korea's gamble seemed to be a grave mistake.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: China and North Korea

46. China’s Hidden Obstacles to Socioeconomic Rebalancing

Author:: Boy Lüthje and Christopher A. McNally
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The global financial crisis of 2008-09 led to a policy consensus in China that its socioeconomic development model needed rebalancing. China's rapid development has been based on extensive growth reliant on exports, low wages, environmental exploitation, and the manufacturing of cheap products. China's current plans identify paths to economic rebalancing through intensive growth driven by rising investment in new technologies and manufacturing processes, improved wages and skills, and improved worker and environmental protections. Two industries, automotive and information technology, demonstrate the experience of and opportunities for rebalancing. Both offer improved employment conditions with better wages, but continue to incorporate large swaths of low-wage employment with little protection for workers' health and the environment. Economic rebalancing in China, therefore, has so far only appeared in pockets. Institutional safeguards for wages and labor standards remain constrained by powerful alliances among multinational corporations, Chinese state-owned/private enterprises, and the Chinese state.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China

47. From Catching Up to Forging Ahead: China’s Policies for Semiconductors

Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: China, the world's leading exporter of electronic products, faces a fundamental dilemma. It is the largest and fastest-growing market for semiconductors, the core component of those electronics products. Yet, at least 80 percent of the semiconductors used in China's electronics products must be imported. As a result, China's trade deficit in semiconductors has more than doubled since 2005 and now exceeds the huge amount it spends on crude oil imports. To correct this unsustainable imbalance, China's new strategy to upgrade its semiconductor industry seeks to move from catching up to forging ahead in semiconductors. The strategy calls for simultaneously strengthening advanced manufacturing and innovation capabilities in China's integrated circuit (IC) design industry and its domestic IC fabrication, primarily through foundry services. Drawing on policy documents and interviews with China-based industry experts, this study takes a close look at the objectives, strategy, and implementation policies of China's new push in semiconductors and examines what this implies for China's prospects in this industry. The study shows that China's new policy resorts to private equity investment rather than subsidy as the tool of industrial policy. The government participates in equity investment and claims it will do so without intervening in management decisions. This policy is expected to reduce the cost of investment funds for a selected group of firms, which is to form a "national team" in the semiconductor industry. China's new policy to upgrade its semiconductor industry through innovation does not represent a radical break with its deeply embedded statist tradition. Within these boundaries, however, the study detects important changes in the direction of a bottom-up, market-led approach to industrial policy. In response to the rising complexity and uncertainty of today's semiconductor industry, the government seems more open to experimentation with new approaches to investment finance and flexible, bottom-up policy implementation, based on multilayered industrial dialogues with private firms. China's policies to forge ahead in semiconductors, thus, provide an interesting example of its current efforts to move from investment-driven catching up to an innovation-driven development model.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Oil, Science and Technology, and Financial Markets
Political Geography:: China

48. The ASEAN Economic Community: What Stands in the Way?

Author:: Jon Dorsch
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: At the end of 2015 the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will announce the establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). In theory, this agreement should produce an association-wide economic integration. However, following the announcement, and for the foreseeable future, ASEAN member states will continue in significantly less than full regional economic integration. Why? Some observers believe that the AEC plans involve an "overly ambitious timeline and too many ill-thought-out initiatives." Others point to ASEAN's traditional aversion to legally binding agreements. While progress has been made in reducing or eliminating intra-ASEAN trade tariffs, substantial non-tariff barriers to trade persist. However, for most member states, the ASEAN market is relatively small while external markets, especially China, are growing rapidly. Given this outward-orientation for ASEAN trade, is the lack of an unhindered regional market really a problem?
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: China and Asia

49. China’s Hidden Obstacles to Socioeconomic Rebalancing

Author:: Christopher McNally and Boy Lüthje
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The global financial crisis of 2008-09 led to a policy consensus in China that its socioeconomic development model needed rebalancing. China's rapid development has been based on extensive growth reliant on exports, low wages, environmental exploitation, and the manufacturing of cheap products. China's current plans identify paths to economic rebalancing through intensive growth driven by rising investment in new technologies and manufacturing processes, improved wages and skills, and improved worker and environmental protections. Two industries, automotive and information technology, demonstrate the experience of and opportunities for rebalancing. Both offer improved employment conditions with better wages, but continue to incorporate large swaths of low-wage employment with little protection for workers' health and the environment. Economic rebalancing in China, therefore, has so far only appeared in pockets. Institutional safeguards for wages and labor standards remain constrained by powerful alliances among multinational corporations, Chinese state-owned/private enterprises, and the Chinese state.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China

50. From Catching Up to Forging Ahead? China's Prospects in Semiconductors

Author:: Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: China's new strategy to upgrade its semiconductor industry (outlined in the "Guidelines to Promote National Integrated Circuit Industry Development," June 24, 2014), seeks to move from catching-up to forging ahead in semiconductors, by strengthening simultaneously China's integrated circuit (IC) design industry and domestic IC foundry services.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy, Markets, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: China and Asia

51. Ethnic Policy in China: Is Reform Inevitable?

Author:: James Leibold
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Balancing ethnocultural diversity and dignity with national integration and interethnic cohesion has been a constant challenge for Chinese policymakers. With a sizeable ethnic minority population, China has long been engaged in this delicate balancing act. Despite episodic conflict, it could be argued that the Communist Party of China (CPC) has, especially since the 1976 death of Mao Zedong, done a relatively competent job of containing ethnic tensions.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Governance
Political Geography:: China and Israel

52. Global Technology Sourcing in China's Integrated Circuit Design Industry: A Conceptual Framework and Preliminary Findings

Author:: Barry Naughton and Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:: 08-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The paper examines the role of global technology sourcing, and its drivers and impacts in China's integrated circuit (IC) design industry. IC design is one of the priority targets of China's innovation policy, as codified especially in the ―Strategic Emerging Industries‖ initiative. At the same time, however, China's IC design industry is deeply integrated into the vertically disintegrated global semiconductor industry, through markets, investment and technology. The paper highlights a fundamental challenge for China's innovation strategy: How can China reconcile its primary objective of strengthening indigenous innovation with the benefits that it could reap from its deep integration into international trade and into global networks of production and innovation?
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: China and Israel

53. America's Voluntary Standards System--A "Best Practice" Model for Innovation Policy?

Author:: Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: For its proponents, America's voluntary standards system is a "best practice" model for innovation policy. Foreign observers however are concerned about possible drawbacks of a standards system that is largely driven by the private sector. There are doubts, especially in Europe and China, whether the American system can balance public and private interests in times of extraordinary national and global challenges to innovation.
Topic:: Development, Globalization, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Intellectual Property/Copyright, and Governance
Political Geography:: China, America, and Europe

54. Rising Tensions Over China's Monopoly on Rare Earths?

Author:: Jane Nakano
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The United States, Japan, and the European Union—the three key consumers of Chinese rare earth materials—formally complained to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in March about Chinese restrictions on its rare earth exports. Several weeks later, China announced the establishment of a 150-plus member association with the official aim of promoting sustainable development within this sector. Some analysts wonder if this is part of a Chinese plan to circumvent international complaints by instituting an oligopolistic arrangement to control its rare earth exports. Others ask if this could be another step in an escalating dispute with China over the global supply of rare earth materials.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, and Europe

55. Reluctant India, Rising China and Alliance Politics in the Asia-Pacific

Author:: Yogesh Joshi
Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: US President Barack Obama used his 2012 State of the Union speech to explain that evolving geopolitical realities continue to make the United States indispensable in global politics. In the Asia-Pacific this indispensability emanates, in part, from the waves caused by the rise of China. Consequently, demands for an increased US presence echo around the region. In response, the United States has renewed its commitments to Japan, South Korea and Australia, stepped up its relations with Southeast Asia, and reasserted itself as an important player in multilateral institutions including the East Asia Summit, APEC, and ASEAN. Clearly, in the 21st century, US strategic focus has shifted from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, International Security, and Power Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, India, South Korea, Australia, and Southeast Asia

56. False Hopes for Chinese Economic "Integration"

Author:: John Lee
Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: In a recent online article in Foreignpolicy.com, regular columnist and head of the Economic Strategy Institute, Clyde Prestowitz, argued that the next president of the World Bank should be Zhou Xiaochuan, Chairman of the People's Bank of China. For Prestowitz, it was not just Zhou's excellent credentials that made him ideal for the position, but also the fact that he is Chinese. China is accurately accused of “gaming” the global economic liberal order through its currency policies, restricted market access for outside firms and governments, and internal intervention in the economy to the detriment of foreign firms. But Prestowitz believes that such an appointment would significantly encourage China to behave as a “responsible stakeholder.” Behind this thinking is the argument that the more power, prestige, and authority China accumulates within the existing order, the more liberal Chinese economic policies will become.
Topic:: Democratization, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: China

57. China-North Korea: Renewal of the "Blood Alliance"

Author:: Masako Ikegami
Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: As North Korea's latest rocket-missile launch approaches, there is speculation whether Beijing can halt Pyongyang's missile ambitions. In my view, Beijing will turn a blind eye towards North Korea's latest provocation, while simultaneously calling for restraint by all parties. Recently, the China-North Korea “blood alliance,” a concept of allies that originated during the Korean War, has been renewed, and it is in China's interests that North Korea consolidates its “absolute deterrence” capability to deter US forces in the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, and North Korea

58. US Agricultural Exports to ASEAN Grow - But Face Competition

Author:: Michael McConnell
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: ASEAN countries have long been an important international market for US agricultural exports. The United States, in 2011, exported almost $9.6 billion of agricultural products to ASEAN, making it the sixth-largest export destination for US farmers, ranchers, and agribusinesses—behind Japan ($14 billion) and just behind the European Union ($9.6 billion), but well ahead of South Korea ($7 billion). Moreover, the value of agricultural trade between the United States and ASEAN almost doubled between 2007 and 2011, with the top four ASEAN markets in 2011 for the United States being Indonesia ($2.8 billion), the Philippines ($2.1 billion), Vietnam ($1.7 billion), and Thailand ($1.3 billion). With a population of 614 million and strong economic growth, it is expected that ASEAN will continue to be an important market for US agricultural products. However, the United States is likely to face increasing competition, particularly from China, Australia, and New Zealand, all of which have free trade agreements (FTAs) with ASEAN.
Topic:: Agriculture, Demographics, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Food
Political Geography:: United States, China, Europe, East Asia, South Korea, Australia, Southeast Asia, and New Zealand

59. "Linsanity," Social Media and US-Asia Relations

Author:: Elina Noor
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Jeremy Lin, the New York Knicks' former benchwarmer and now worldwide basketball sensation, is the new Cinderella Man or “Linderella” of basketball, and maybe even more. As the National Basketball Association's (NBA) first American-born player of Chinese-Taiwanese descent, Lin has notched impressive game statistics, sparked new “Lin-go” around his name, and enraptured fans from Queens to the Bay Area, Zhejiang to Taipei, and Jakarta to Kuala Lumpur.
Topic:: Mass Media and Youth Culture
Political Geography:: United States, China, New York, East Asia, Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Kuala Lumpur

60. Syria: What China Has Learned From its Libya Experience

Author:: Yun Sun
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: China's joint veto along with Russia of the UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) on Syria has provoked fierce international criticism. Labeled as “responsible for Syria's genocide,” Beijing's international image has struck a new low. China's decision to cast the unpopular vote was apparently well thought-out, as evidenced by its consistent diplomatic rhetoric and actions, both before and after the veto. However, in analyzing China's motivation, many analysts seemed to have missed an important point. That is, China's experience concerning Libya in 2011 had a direct impact on its actions regarding Syria this time around.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Insurgency, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Arabia, United Nations, and Syria

61. The Foundation of China's Future Stability

Author:: Peter Mattis
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The recently ended standoff between the villagers of Wukan in Guangdong province and local government officials has refocused attention on China's future stability. The more than 100,000 officially reported incidents of unrest each year gives observers the false impression that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing barely holds the country together. Pressure may be building, but China's stability is like a champagne bottle. Until the cork pops, the bottle and its contents are stable. The question is how much pressure is building and how much wine is spilt when the cork flies out.
Topic:: Communism, Democratization, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: China

62. Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone and the Nuclear-Weapon States

Author:: Peter Crail and Xiaodon Liang
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Following a decade-long impasse, the Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ) is finally on a path to being endorsed by the world's five recognized nuclear-weapon states—China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Agreement by these nuclear powers to respect the prohibition of nuclear weapons in Southeast Asia and to provide legal assurances that they will not use such weapons against zone members helps to strengthen the commitment by regional states not to pursue nuclear weapons, and contributes more broadly to global nonproliferation and disarmament efforts,
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, France, and Southeast Asia

63. U.S.-China Competition in Asia: Legacies Help America

Author:: Robert Sutter
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: As Sino-American competition for influence enters a new stage with the Obama administration's re-engagement with Asia, each power's legacies in the region add to economic, military and diplomatic factors determining which power will be more successful in the competition. How the United States and China deal with their respective histories in regional affairs and the role of their non-government relations with the Asia- Pacific represent important legacies that on balance favor the United States.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, America, and Asia

64. Taiwan: Crisis Deferred, But Maybe Not For Long

Author:: Denny Roy
Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Taiwan's elections on January 14, which for the first time combined polls for the presidency and the legislature, displayed further positive evolution in Taiwan's now well-established democracy. The results also precluded an immediate disruption in relations between Taiwan and the PRC, which is good news in Washington. In Beijing's view, however, the goal is not stability across the Taiwan Strait, but unification. Chinese impatience might weigh more heavily on President Ma Ying-jeou, and by extension on the United States, during Ma's second term.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Democratization, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, China, Washington, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia

65. The Emerging Strategic Dynamic in Southeast Asia

Author:: Marvin C. Ott
Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Southeast Asia, long quiescent in a turbulent international environment, has suddenly become the focal point of what promises to be the signature strategic contest of the 21st century—between the United States and China. But the evolving dynamic is far more complex than a simple binary face-off between an established superpower and an emerging rival. The overarching backdrop is the profound and ongoing economic transformation of Asia. Three centuries of global economic, political and military domination by the industrialized West has given way to a fundamentally new configuration. Economic modernization that began with Japan has spread to the Sinicized populations of the region and beyond, including Southeast Asia. The global center of economic gravity has shifted westward across the Pacific—and economics is the foundation of power. The world has entered the oft-touted “Asia-Pacific Century.”
Topic:: Cold War, Communism, and Power Politics
Political Geography:: United States, China, America, and Southeast Asia

66. America's Voluntary Standards System—A "Best Practice" Model for Innovation Policy?

Author:: Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: For its proponents, America's voluntary standards system is a "best practice" model for innovation policy. Foreign observers however are concerned about possible drawbacks of a standards system that is largely driven by the private sector. There are doubts, especially in Europe and China, whether the American system can balance public and private interests in times of extraordinary national and global challenges to innovation.
Topic:: Democratization, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Europe

67. Networks, Trust, and Trade: The Microeconomics of China-North Korea Integration

Author:: Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: A central hope of engagement with North Korea is that increased cross-border exchange will encourage the strengthening of institutions, and eventually, a moderation of the country's foreign policy. An unprecedented survey of Chinese enterprises operating in North Korea reveals that trade is largely dominated by state entities on the North Korean side, although we cannot rule out de facto privatization of exchange. Little trust is evident beyond the relationships among Chinese and North Korean state-owned enterprises. Formal networks and dispute settlement mechanisms are weak and do not appear to have consequences for relational contracting. Rather, firms rely on personal ties for identifying counterparties and resolving disputes. The weakness of formal institutions implies that the growth in exchange does not conform with the expectations of the engagement model and may prove self-limiting. The results also cast doubt that integration between China and North Korea, at least as it is currently proceeding, will foster reform and opening.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Israel, and North Korea

68. Diverging Trajectories: Economic Rebalancing and Labor Policies in China

Author:: Boy Lüthje
Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The transformation of work and labor policies is one of the most underresearched aspects of China's political economy in recent decades. Western perceptions of Chinese workplaces are mostly informed by images of privatization and downsizing of traditional state-socialist enterprises, or by the unfamous sweatshops serving the production networks of global brandname companies under miserable conditions However, recent research reveals that labor politics in China have become highly diversified, in spite of the apparently centralized character of the political regime. At the same time, labor conflicts are on the rise across industries and regions.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, Political Economy, Labor Issues, and Sociology
Political Geography:: China

69. The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment

Author:: Peter A. Petri, Michael G. Plummer, and Fan Zhai
Publication Date:: 10-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Two emerging tracks of trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific—one based on the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and an Asian track—could consolidate the “noodle bowl” of current smaller agreements and provide pathways to a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). We examine the benefits and strategic incentives generated by these tracks over 2010-2025. The effects on the world economy would be small initially but by 2025 the annual welfare gains would rise to $104 billion on the TPP track, $303 billion on both tracks, and $862 billion with an FTAAP. The tracks will be competitive but their strategic implications are constructive: each would generate incentives for enlargement. Over time, strong economic incentives would emerge for the United States and China to consolidate the tracks into a region-wide agreement. Each track would bring a different template to such consolidation and can be viewed as defining a “disagreement point” in the Asia-Pacific bargaining game. The study is based on an analysis of 48 actual and proposed Asia-Pacific trade agreements and models impacts on variables including sectoral trade, output, employment and job shifts in 24 world regions.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, China, Israel, Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Asia-Pacific

70. An Evaluation of Overseas Oil Investment Projects Under Uncertainty Using a Real Options Based Simulation Model

Author:: ZhongXiang Zhang, Lei Zhu, and Ying Fan
Publication Date:: 11-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: This paper applies real options theory to establish an overseas oil investment evaluation model that is based on Monte Carlo simulation and is solved by the Least Squares Monte-Carlo method. To better reflect the reality of overseas oil investment, the model has incorporated not only the uncertainties of oil price and investment cost but also the uncertainties of exchange rate and investment environment. These unique features have enabled the model to be best equipped to evaluate the value of oil overseas investment projects of three oil field sizes (large, medium, small) and under different resource tax systems (royalty tax and production sharing contracts). In the empirical setting, China was selected as an investor country and Indonesia as an investee country as a case study. The results show that the investment risks and project values of small sized oil fields are more sensitive to changes in the uncertainty factors than the large and medium sized oil fields. Furthermore, among the uncertainty factors considered in the model, the investment risk of overseas oil investment may be underestimated if no consideration is given of the impacts of exchange rate and investment environment. Finally, as there is an important tradeoff between oil resource investee country and overseas oil investor, in medium and small sized oil investment negotiation the oil company should try to increase the cost oil limit in production sharing contract and avoid the term of a windfall profits tax to reduce the investment risk of overseas oil fields.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:: China, Indonesia, and Israel

71. Who Should Bear the Cost of China's Carbon Emissions Embodied in Goods for Exports?

Author:: ZhongXiang Zhang
Publication Date:: 11-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: China's capital-intensive, export-oriented, spectacular economic growth since launching its open-door policy and economic reforms in late 1978 not only has created jobs and has lifted millions of the Chinese people out of poverty, but also has given rise to unprecedented environmental pollution and CO2 emissions. While estimates of the embedded CO2 emissions in China's trade differ, both single country studies for China and global studies show a hefty chunk of China's CO2 emissions embedded in trade. This portion of CO2 emissions had helped to turn China into the world's largest carbon emitter, and is further widening its gap with the second largest emitter. This raises the issue of who should be responsible for this portion of emissions and bearing the carbon cost of exports. China certainly wants importers to cover some, if not all, of that costs. While China's stance is understandable, this paper has argued from a broad and balanced perspective that if this is pushed too far, it will not help to find solutions to this issue. On the contrary it can be to China's disadvantage for a number of reasons. However, aligning this responsibility with China does not necessarily suggest the sole reliance on domestic actions. In that context, the paper recommends specific actions that need to be taken internationally as well as domestically in order to effectively control the embedded CO2 emissions in China's trade.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China

72. Is China's Indigenous Innovation Strategy Compatible with Globalization?

Author:: Xielin Liu and Peng Cheng
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: National innovation policies currently attract intense interest throughout the international community, particularly so in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. China is among those countries now relying heavily on government resources to drive innovation—a policy that directly challenges the prevalent theory that government powers have limited effects on a nation's innovation systems. Indeed, China's new indigenous innovation strategy has transformed the country's innovation systems. China's current indigenous innovation strategy is both constructive and efficient for an economy with clear targets for industrial innovation and working to catch up to international standards. For China to succeed as an innovative country it needs to provide more opportunity for market competition to incubate and generate radical innovations.
Topic:: Economics and Globalization
Political Geography:: China

73. A Step Too Far: Why CPGS Is The Wrong Answer to China's Anti-Access Challenge

Author:: Iskander Rehman
Publication Date:: 03-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: In March 1996, the waters of the Taiwan Strait were roiled by Chinese live missile firings and massive military exercises. Washington answered Beijing's blunt demonstration of coercive military diplomacy by promptly dispatching two aircraft carriers to the scene.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, China, Washington, and Taiwan

74. Australia and Japan: Allies in Partnership

Author:: Malcolm Cook and Thomas S. Wilkins
Publication Date:: 03-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The post-Cold War era in the Asia-Pacific has not witnessed the triumph of low over high politics. Rather, it has seen the simultaneous intensification of both economic integration and security cooperation and competition. This is true both at the level of the region, and for China and most other countries in the region.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, Asia, and Australia

75. China's Confucius Institutes: Crossing the River by Feeling the Stones

Author:: Maria Wey-Shen Siow
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Many observers view China's overseas Confucius Institutes as the most visible symbols of China's growing soft power, and a tool for the country to expand its international influence and advance its public diplomacy agenda. The institutes were first established in 2004, with the first institute opening in Seoul. The primary goal of these institutions is to promote Mandarin Chinese language learning. Other functions include promoting Chinese culture and developing positive opinions of China within a global setting. Modeled along the lines of Germany's Goethe-Institut and France's Alliance Française, there are currently 320 Confucius Institutes in 96 countries with over 230,000 registered students. Apart from language classes, the institutes organize a wide variety of cultural activities ranging from music, calligraphy, cooking, and traditional Chinese medicine to hosting talks on China's economy, history, culture and society. China aims to open one thousand Confucius Institutes by 2020.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Power Politics
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and France

76. Chinese Domestic Debates on Soft Power and Public Diplomacy

Author:: Maria Wey-Shen Siow
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Western debates and discussions surrounding China's soft power are more widely known than the discourse within China itself. While the broad parameters of Chinese discussions are fundamentally similar to those of their western counterparts, there are some variations as to how the Chinese perceive soft power. Soft power is after all a largely western concept that has only in recent years made inroads and found widespread acceptance within Chinese policy-making circles. However, broadly speaking, Chinese scholars and analysts agree with the definition of soft power as espoused by Joseph Nye, which is the use of attraction and persuasion in foreign policy, and the appeal of a country based on its culture, values, beliefs, policies, and way of life.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Affairs, and Power Politics
Political Geography:: China

77. Crossing Borders, Changing Landscapes: Land-Use Dynamics in the Golden Triangle

Author:: Jefferson Fox
Publication Date:: 12-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Over the last half-century, public policy has affected land-use practices across the borders linking China, Thailand, and Laos. Political and economic reforms have facilitated labor mobility and a shift in agricultural practices away from staple grains and toward a diverse array of cash crops, rubber being one of the foremost. China has promoted the conversion of forests to rubber agroforestry in southern Yunnan--profitable for farmers, but a concern in terms of biodiversity and long-term viability. In Thailand, the response is at the other end of the spectrum as the government's concerns about land-use practices and watershed management have led to policies that dramatically constrain land-use practices and limit tenure rights. In Laos the future is not yet clear. Government policies provide weak support for both private land ownership and protected areas. In a global environment where national policy has such a dramatic effect on land use and land cover, the factors behind land-use change merit close examination.
Topic:: Agriculture, Economics, Migration, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

78. Ethno-Diplomacy: The Uyghur Hitch in Sino-Turkish Relations

Author:: Yitzhak Shichor
Publication Date:: 01-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Beginning in 1949, China considered, and dealt with, so-called Uyghur separatism and the quest for Eastern Turkestan (Xinjiang) independence as a domestic problem. Since the early 1990s, however, Beijing has begun to recognize the international aspects of this problem and to deal with its external manifestations. This new policy has affected China's relations with Turkey, which has ideologically inspired Uyghur nationalism, offered sanctuary to Uyghur refugees, and provided moral and material support to Eastern Turkestan movements, organizations, and activities.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, and Minorities
Political Geography:: China, Central Asia, and Turkey

79. Climate Commitments to 2050: A Roadmap for China

Author:: ZhongXiang Zhang
Publication Date:: 12-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Representatives of countries around the world are scheduled to meet in Copenhagen in December 2009, to try to hammer out a new regime for attacking climate change problems. No one would deny that the United States is committed to cut its greenhouse gas emissions—an essential part of a global pact—or that President Obama wants to demonstrate U.S. leadership in the debate.
Topic:: Climate Change and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

80. Population Policy, Economic Reform, and Fertility Decline in Guangdong Province, China

Author:: Jiajian Chen, Robert D. Retherford, Minja Kim Choe, Li Xiru, and Cui Hongyan
Publication Date:: 05-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: This paper examines Guangdong's fertility decline between 1975 and 2005 and analyzes how it has been influenced by both fertility policy and economic development. Guangdong's economic development has been very rapid and has attracted huge numbers of migrants from other provinces. The effect of this migration on Guangdong's fertility is an important part of the story. Measures of fertility and nuptiality employed in the analysis include the total fertility rate, parity progression ratios, mean age at first marriage, mean age at first birth, and mean closed birth interval between first and second birth. These measures are calculated from birth histories reconstructed from data from China's 1990 and 2000 censuses and 2005 mini-census. An overlapping-trend analysis provides indications of the accuracy of the estimates.
Topic:: Demographics, Development, Economics, and Migration
Political Geography:: China and Israel

81. Entrepreneurship and Political Guanxi Networks in China's Private Sector

Author:: Christopher A. McNally, Hong Guo, and Guangwei Hu
Publication Date:: 08-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Since the mid-1990s the Chinese government has rapidly liberalized the environment facing domestic private firms. As a consequence, many private firms have clarified their ownership relations and acquired stronger organizational boundaries. However, despite this formalization of private sector institutions, informal guanxi networks remain a key component in firm success. Most significant among these guanxi networks are political networks that connect private entrepreneurs with actors in China's political sphere.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: China and Israel

82. Faces of Islam in Southern Thailand

Author:: Imtiyaz Yusuf
Publication Date:: 03-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Several commentators and analyst have talked about the on ongoing unrest in southern Thailand from the perspective of the engagement of international terrorism, security issues, center ‐ periphery relations, organized crime and the drug industry. But none of them have written about the role of religion and ethnicity in the crisis. This monograph argues that the roots of the crisis in southern Thailand lie in the role of religion viewed from the point of ethnic identity. The phenomena of ethnification of religion is very much evident in Southeast Asia where religions function along ethnic lines; here a Malay is a Muslim, a Siamese/Thai a Buddhist and a Chinese either a Christian or Taoist/Buddhist syncretic. Thus ethnoreligious constructs shape identities. Hence, it is important to look into the blending of ethnicity and religion and how the constant transformation of these two factors alter the shape of the ongoing crisis in southern Thailand.
Topic:: Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, Religion, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: China, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

83. Can China Afford to Continue Its One-Child Policy?

Author:: Wang Feng
Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Twenty-five years after it was launched, China's “One Child” population control policy is credited with cutting population growth to an all time low and contributing to two decades of spectacular economic development. But the costs associated with the policy are also apparent and are rising: a growing proportion of elderly with inadequate government or family support, a disproportionately high number of male births attributable to sex selective abortion, increased female infant and child mortality rates, and the collapse of a credible government birth reporting system. Today, as China contemplates the future of the policy, many argue that a change that allows couples to have two children will not lead to uncontrollable population growth. Instead, it could help meet the fertility desires of most Chinese couples; avoid a worsening of the demographic and social consequences already evident; and relieve the Chinese government of the immense financial and political costs of enforcing an unpopular policy. But changes will need to come soon if China is to avert even greater negative consequences of the policy.
Topic:: Civil Society and Human Welfare
Political Geography:: China and Asia

84. The Tibet-China Conflict: History and Polemics

Author:: Elliot Sperling
Publication Date:: 08-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: This paper is a guide to the historical arguments made by the primary parties to the Tibet-China conflict. Given the polarization that has characterized this issue for decades, it is surprising that little has been done to analyze or at least disentangle the strands of historical argumentation that the parties have been using. This paper attempts to do this by relying as much as possible on the key assertions as they have been framed in Chinese and Tibetan sources. Chinese- and Tibetan-language materials dealing with the historical status of Tibet are often more detailed and better documented, and hew more closely than English-language materials do to the thinking of the people most directly concerned with (and affected by) the Tibet-China conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Tibet

85. Asian Oil Market Outlook: Role of the Key Players

Author:: Jeffrey Brown and Kang Wu
Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The Asia Pacific region's dynamic oil market is marked by strong growth in consumption, declining regional oil production, and over capacity in its highly competitive oil-refining sector. Its "key players" are China, India, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea—a group that includes the region's five top consumers and three of its major producers—and developments in these countries will have commercial and strategic implications for the whole region. On the consumption side, Japan's slow growth in demand has failed to dampen regional growth, which is now driven by China and India's fast growing thirst for oil. On the supply side, Indonesia's inevitable transition to a net oil importer highlights the trend toward growing dependence on Middle East oil, which already comprises 42–90 percent of imports among the key players. In response to this trend, China, Japan, and South Korea are pushing to acquire overseas oil reserves, with Japan and China already locked in a fierce competition for projected Russian supplies—a type of struggle that will likely become more commonplace.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Indonesia, Middle East, India, Asia, and South Korea

86. The Move to Preferential Trade in the Western Pacific Rim

Author:: John Ravenhill
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Western Pacific Rim states have been slow to participate in preferential trade agreements (PTAs). In the past four years, however, more than 40 PTAs involving these economies have been proposed or are being implemented. For the first time, Japan and China have either signed or are negotiating bilateral or plurilateral agreements. The new interest in PTAs reflects the perception that they have been successful in other parts of the world, and is reinforced by dissatisfaction with the region's existing trade groupings. Although arguments can be made in favor of PTAs, they amplify political considerations in trade agreements, may adversely affect the political balance in participating countries, impose costs on nonparticipants, and deplete scarce negotiating resources. Nevertheless, the number of western Pacific Rim states participating in PTAs continues to climb. Northeast Asian countries have been following Europe in exploiting loopholes in WTO rules on PTAs to protect their noncompetitive sectors, thereby strengthening their political positions, which will likely make global liberalization more difficult.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

87. Changing Korean Perceptions of the Post-Cold War Era and the U.S.-ROK Alliance

Author:: Choong Nam Kim
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: For half a century the United States and South Korea have been united in an alliance that has simultaneously contained North Korea and projected American power into Northeast Asia. Now that alliance is being questioned by many South Koreans, whose country has developed from a poor, authoritarian state into the world's 11th largest economy and a vital democracy. Along the way South Koreans' views of themselves and of other nations have changed. Improved relations with China and Russia, and a policy of engagement with North Korea, have reduced the country's dependence on the United States and South Koreans' tolerance for what they view as American arrogance and unilateralism. Indeed, Koreans today view their Cold War allies (the United States and Japan) more negatively than their Cold War enemies (North Korea and China), a situation that would have been unimaginable a decade ago. The poorly coordinated North Korea policy of Seoul and Washington appears to be a direct cause of anti-Americanism, which will grow unless the two countries develop a more equal, mutually acceptable relationship.
Topic:: Cold War
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, Israel, South Korea, and North Korea

88. China's State-Owned Enterprises: Thriving or Crumbling?

Author:: Christopher A. McNally
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Even though China's state firms lost their near-monopoly status after 1978, they still form the country's financial and industrial nucleus.Nevertheless, in early 1996 the total losses of these state-owned enterprises (SOEs) exceeded profits for the first time. With the economy threatened, offi-cialdom issued a mandate in 1997: SOEs must become profitable in three years. In 2001, statistics showed a massive turn around, and victory was declared. Despite doubts about the official statistics, substantial improvement did seem evident. The question was, what caused it? While massive layoffs and corporate restructuring did increase efficiency, most improvements have been the result of external factors such as debt restructuring and government-arranged buy-outs and mergers. This strategy offers short-term rewards, but could be a disaster in the long term. Real reform of China's state sector requires financial reforms that bite (even more urgent with WTO entry), serious moves toward a social security system for displaced workers, and more outright priva-tization of state firms to give non-state shareholders real power on their boards.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:: China

89. Managing Asia Pacific's Energy Dependence on the Middle East: Is There a Role for Central Asia?

Author:: Kang Wu and Fereidun Fesharaki
Publication Date:: 06-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The Middle East is Asia Pacific's largest energy supplier, satisfying a demand for oil that must keep pace with the region's continued economic growth. This dependence on the Middle East has caused Asia Pacific to join the United States and other Western nations in the hunt for alternative suppliers. Central Asia, located between the Middle East and Asia Pacific and already an oil and gas exporter, is an attractive possibility. With energy production projected to rise rapidly over the next decade, Central Asia is poised to become a major player in the world energy market. But the land-locked region's options for transporting oil and gas to Asia Pacific markets are limited and problematic. Passage via pipeline east through China presents construction challenges; south through Iran, or through India and Pakistan via Afghanistan, is fraught with political difficulties. Not until geopolitics become more favorable to the south-bound options, or technologies make the China route possible, will Asia Pacific be able to tap the energy resources of Central Asia.
Topic:: Security and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, China, Iran, Middle East, and Asia

90. Rough Waters in the South China Sea: Navigation Issues and Confidence-Building Measures

Author:: Ji Guoxing
Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: In the wake of a collision between a U.S. spy plane and a Chinese jet fighter off the coast of Hainan in April 2001, verbal skirmishing between the United States and China revealed sharply different conceptions of jurisdictional and navigational principles. These differences persist and will likely be the cause of future conflicts; they have already caused strife among countries ringing the South China Sea. Central to these conflicts are the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) that extend 200 nm into the sea from coastal nations' baselines. Created by the UN Law of the Sea Convention, these zones attempt to accommodate coastal states' interest in controlling offshore resources and maritime powers' interests in maintaining freedom of navigation. But ambiguities in the Convention's language combined with coastal states' proliferating EEZ claims have created a tinderbox. The situation will remain volatile as long as the focus remains on jurisdictional disputes. But confidence-building efforts aimed more narrowly on practical navigation issues and managing “incidents at sea” offer a starting point for first bilateral and then multilateral agreements. In the wake of a collision between a U.S. spy plane and a Chinese jet fighter off the coast of Hainan in April 2001, verbal skirmishing between the United States and China revealed sharply different conceptions of jurisdictional and navigational principles. These differences persist and will likely be the cause of future conflicts; they have already caused strife among countries ringing the South China Sea. Central to these conflicts are the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) that extend 200 nm into the sea from coastal nations' baselines. Created by the UN Law of the Sea Convention, these zones attempt to accommodate coastal states' interest in controlling offshore resources and maritime powers' interests in maintaining freedom of navigation. But ambiguities in the Convention's language combined with coastal states' proliferating EEZ claims have created a tinderbox. The situation will remain volatile as long as the focus remains on jurisdictional disputes. But confidence-building efforts aimed more narrowly on practical navigation issues and managing “incidents at sea” offer a starting point for first bilateral and then multilateral agreements.
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, and International Law
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, and China

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS