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81. China's $1.5 Trillion Bet: Understanding China's External Portfolio

Author:
Brad W. Setser and Arpana Pandey
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
This paper was originally published in January 2009. The May update incorporates quarter one 2009 data on China's foreign reserves, the Treasury International Capital (TIC) capital flows data for December, January, and February, and the results of the June 2008 survey of foreign portfolio investment in the United States. The June 2008 survey indicated that China bought fewer Treasury bonds and more equities than the authors estimated in the January paper.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and China

82. The Russia File

Author:
Robert Legvold
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Reversing the collapse of U.S.-Russian relations is one of the great tests facing the Obama administration. Among the major powers, Russia is the hard case. And the stakes involved in getting U.S.-Russian relations right are high -- much higher than the leadership of either country has acknowledged or perhaps even realized so far. If the Obama administration can guide the relationship onto a more productive path, as it is trying to do, it will not only open the way for progress on the day's critical issues -- from nuclear security and energy security to climate change and peaceful change in the post-Soviet area -- but also be taking on a truly historic task. One of the blessings of the post-Cold War era has been the absence of strategic rivalry among great powers, a core dynamic of the previous 300 years in the history of international relations. Should it return, some combination of tensions between the United States, Russia, and China would likely be at its core. Ensuring that this does not happen constitutes the less noticed but more fateful foreign policy challenge facing this U.S. president and the next.
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, and Soviet Union

83. Arms and Influence at Sea

Author:
Thomas Culora and Andrew Erickson
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Robert Kaplan ("Center Stage for the Twenty-first Century," March/April 2009) correctly underscores the Indian Ocean's strategic importance. But in envisioning "dynamic great-power rivalry" between Beijing and New Delhi there, he is too pessimistic about the United States' ability to maintain influence, too optimistic about China's ability to exert influence rapidly, and too dismissive of India's inherent regional advantages.
Political Geography:
United States, China, Beijing, and New Delhi

84. The Unbalanced Triangle

Author:
Stephen Kotkin
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The Chinese-Russian relationship is more opportunistic than strategic, Bobo Lo argues. The United States is stuck watching from the sidelines and may be pushing Moscow further into Beijing's pocket.
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Beijing, and Moscow

85. The Future of U.S. Military Power

Author:
Thomas Donnelly, Philip Dur, and Andrew F. Krepinevich Jr.
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Political Geography:
United States and China

86. Long Time Coming: The Prospects for Democracy in China

Author:
John L. Thornton
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Is China democratizing? The country's leaders do not think of democracy as people in the West generally do, but they are increasingly backing local elections, judicial independence, and oversight of Chinese Communist Party officials. How far China's liberalization will ultimately go and what Chinese politics will look like when it stops are open questions.
Political Geography:
China

87. The Rise of China and the Future of the West: Can the Liberal System Survive?

Author:
G. John Ikenberry
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
China's rise will inevitably bring the United States' unipolar moment to an end. But that does not necessarily mean a violent power struggle or the overthrow of the Western system. The U.S.-led international order can remain dominant even while integrating a more powerful China -- but only if Washington sets about strengthening that liberal order now.
Political Geography:
United States and China

88. China's New Dictatorship Diplomacy: Is Beijing Parting With Pariahs?

Author:
Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt and Andrew Small
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Beijing has recently stepped back from its unconditional support for pariah states, such as Burma, North Korea, and Sudan. This means China may now be more likely to help the West manage the problems such states pose -- but only up to a point, because at heart China still favors nonintervention as a general policy.
Political Geography:
China, Sudan, Beijing, North Korea, and Burma

89. Reconsidering Revaluation: The Wrong Approach to the U.S.-Chinese Trade Imbalance

Author:
David D. Hale and Lyric Hughes Hale
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Politicians in Washington are clamoring for currency revaluation in China to reverse China's trade surplus with the United States. But the trade imbalance is not the threat they make it out to be, and a stronger yuan is not the solution. Everybody should focus instead on properly integrating China into the global economy.
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Washington

90. China and India Go to Africa: New Deals in the Developing World

Author:
Harry G. Broadman
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Economic activity between Africa and Asia, especially China and India, is booming like never before. If the problems and imbalances this sometimes creates are managed well, this expanding engagement could be an unprecedented opportunity for Africa's growth and for its integration into the global economy.
Political Geography:
Africa, China, India, and Asia

91. Transforming Nations: How the WTO Boosts Economies and Opens Societies

Author:
Peter D. Sutherland
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The World Trade Organization has changed the world in the past decade by welcoming China and transforming national fortunes in Cambodia and Saudi Arabia. It provides the catalyst that political leaders need to reform.
Political Geography:
China, Cambodia, and Saudi Arabia

92. To the Editor: Chinese Ghosts

Author:
Harold Brown
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
G. John Ikenberry propagates a misconception ("The Rise of China and the Future of the West," January/February 2008) by using GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) to conclude that China will surpass the United States in terms of economic weight sometime around 2020. A nation's weight in the world economy is primarily exerted through imports and exports, investment and capital flows. All of these take place at currency exchange rates, not at PPP. A haircut in Wuhan may cost a dollar's worth of yuan and be worth $15 to the Chinese GDP at PPP, but its effect on the outside world's economy is nothing, at least not until China can export haircuts.
Political Geography:
United States and China

93. China, Space Weapons, and U.S. Security

Author:
Bruce W. MacDonald
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
On January 11, 2007, China launched a missile into space, releasing a homing vehicle that destroyed an old Chinese weather satellite. The strategic reverberations of that collision have shaken up security thinking in the United States and around the world. This test demonstrated that, if it so chose, China could build a substantial number of these anti- satellite weapons (ASAT) and thus might soon be able to destroy substantial numbers of U.S. satellites in low earth orbit (LEO), upon which the U.S. military heavily depends. On February 21, 2008, the United States launched a modified missile-defense interceptor, destroying a U.S. satellite carrying one thousand pounds of toxic fuel about to make an uncontrolled atmospheric reentry. Thus, within fourteen months, China and the United States both demonstrated the capability to destroy LEO satellites, heralding the arrival of an era where space is a potentially far more contested domain than in the past, with few rules.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

94. Chinese Ways

Author:
Naazneen Barma, Ely Ratner, and Steven Weber
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
To the Editor: In "The Rise of China and the Future of the West" (January/February 2008), G. John Ikenberry offers a compelling series of arguments for why China will not attempt to overturn the liberal order. But he is wrong to assume that the absence of confrontation implies gradual integration. It does not. China is pursuing a different strategy: forging a route around the West by constructing an alternative international system in the developing world. The norms of China's parallel political order are alien to those Ikenberry wishes to see preserved.
Political Geography:
China

95. China's Olympic Nightmare

Author:
Elizabeth C. Economy and Adam Segal
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Failure to plan for predictable problems has turned China's coming-out party into an embarrassment.
Political Geography:
China

96. A Strategic Economic Engagement

Author:
Henry M. Paulson Jr.
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The prosperity of the United States and China depends on helping China further integrate into the global economic system.
Political Geography:
United States and China

97. Keeping Up With Asia

Author:
Yoichi Funabashi
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The Bush legacy in Asia is positive and the next admistration can continue this trend by continuing multilateral engagement with Japan and China.
Political Geography:
Japan, China, and Asia

98. Reform of the International Monetary Fund

Author:
Peter B. Kenen
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is undertaking a wide-ranging reform of its governance and operations within a framework proposed by Rodrigo de Rato, its managing director. The proposed reform is inspired in large part by the emergence of large middle-income developing countries such as China and India, which now play a major role in the world economy but are underrepresented in the Fund as the low-income developing countries. The proposed reform is also inspired by the need to simplify the Fund's internal practices and focus more intensively on its basic mandate: to “oversee the development of the international monetary system in order to ensure its effective operation.”
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and India

99. U.S.-China Relations

Author:
Dennis C. Blair, Carla A. Hills, and Frank Sampson Jannuzi
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
President Richard M. Nixon reached out to the People's Republic of China thirty-five years ago to advance U.S. strategic interests by balancing the Soviet Union and reinforcing the split between two former communist allies. Nixon and his national security adviser, Henry Kissinger, briefed the Chinese on Soviet forces arrayed against China and also discussed the Vietnam War and Taiwan. Nixon and Kissinger sought to change the global U.S. stance from confrontation to détente and to extricate the United States from the Vietnam War. Their mission shifted the globe's geopolitical landscape.
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and Vietnam

100. U.S.-China Relations: An Affirmative Agenda, A Responsible Course

Author:
Dennis C. Blair
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
President Richard M. Nixon reached out to the People's Republic of China thirty-five years ago to advance U.S. strategic interests by balancing the Soviet Union and reinforcing the split between two former communist allies. Nixon and his national security adviser, Henry Kissinger, briefed the Chinese on Soviet forces arrayed against China and also discussed the Vietnam War and Taiwan. Nixon and Kissinger sought to change the global U.S. stance from confrontation to détente and to extricate the United States from the Vietnam War. Their mission shifted the globe's geopolitical landscape.
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Taiwan