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2. A Post-Brexit Trade Policy for Development and a More Integrated Africa
- Author:
- Kimberly Ann Elliott
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The United Kingdom will confirm its departure from the European Union on 31st January 2020. As part of its independent trade policy, the government has committed to improve access to UK mar- kets for the poorest countries. This note sets out three ways it can do so: expanding duty-free market access while avoiding piecemeal trade agreements that undermine Africa’s own trade integration ef- forts; using an alternative framework for those trade agreements it does negotiate with developing countries; and supporting a “back-to-basics” multilateral negotiation at the World Trade Organiza- tion that could help to rebuild confidence in that institution and thus protect the interests of small and vulnerable countries. After a brief review of the background and context, it sets out specific pro- posals in each of these areas.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, European Union, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United Kingdom, and Europe
3. Developing a More Inclusive US Trade Policy at Home and Abroad
- Author:
- Kimberly Ann Elliott
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- American policymakers have failed to adequately respond to concerns about globalization’s effects and the resulting backlash has taken an ugly turn in recent years. While globalization is only one of many factors contributing to economic dislocation, sluggish wage growth and inequality in the United States, foreigners, and developing countries in particular, are frequently the target of those who are frustrated at being left behind. Yet few realize that US trade policy effectively discriminates against poorer countries. In addition, provisions in trade agreements that tilt the playing field in favor of business interests over those of American consumers and workers also often undermine development priorities in partner countries. American policymakers should rethink the substance and process of trade policy and negotiations to spread the benefits more broadly, at home and abroad.
- Topic:
- Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Inequality, and Domestic Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and North America
4. Mexico’s Financial Risks: Solving Pemex for a Solvent Mexico
- Author:
- Laura Alfaro, Augusto de la Torre, Guillermo Calvo, Roque Fernandez, Pablo Guidotti, Paulo Leme, Enrique G. Mendoza, Guillermo Perry, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Liliana Rojas-Suarez
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Mexico’s financial risks and the policies being adopted by the new administration cannot be ade- quately assessed without recognizing key features that characterize the following initial conditions:
- Topic:
- Development, International Trade and Finance, Governance, Finance, Economic Growth, and Risk
- Political Geography:
- North America and Mexico
5. Chinese Leadership and the Future of BRI: What Key Decisions Lie Ahead?
- Author:
- Brad Parks
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- It’s 2028. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been underway for 15 years, but the initial enthusiasm and momentum behind BRI has vanished. Many of the governments that initially joined the initiative have publicly withdrawn or quietly wound down their participation. China’s staunchest allies remain engaged but even they have reservations about the wisdom of the initiative. They are saddled with unproductive public investment projects and struggling to service their debts. Domestic public sentiment towards China has soured, and they have come to view their participation in BRI as more of a political liability than an asset. But they worry about the consequences of alienating their most important patron and creditor. China has also assumed a defensive posture. Lacking the goodwill that it possessed at the beginning of BRI, it is now using inducements and threats to prevent its remaining clients from abandoning the initiative. Western donors and lenders watch from the sidelines with a sense of bemusement. They encouraged China to “multilateralize” BRI by establishing a common set of project appraisal standards, procurement guidelines, fiduciary controls, and social and environmental safeguards that other aid agencies and development banks could support. But Beijing chose to go it alone. It opted not to embrace the use of economic rate-of-return analysis to vet project proposals; resisted efforts to harmonize its environmental, social, and fiduciary safeguards with those used by aid agencies and development banks outside of China; and pushed back on the “Western” suggestion that it modernize its monitoring and evaluation practices. China bet that its fast and flexible approach to infrastructure finance would prove to be so compelling that traditional donors and lenders would eventually jump on the bandwagon and co-finance BRI projects. But it miscalculated. Its model was insufficiently attractive on its merits to enlist the participation and support of the other major players in the bilateral and multilateral development finance market. Nor was it sufficiently appealing to sustain elite and public support in partner countries.
- Topic:
- Development, International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, Leadership, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
6. Gender Matters in Economic Empowerment Interventions: A Research Review
- Author:
- Mayra Buvinic and Megan O'Donnell
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- A review of the recent evaluation evidence on financial services and training interventions questions their gender neutrality and suggests that some design features in these interventions can yield more positive economic outcomes for women than for men. These include features in savings and ‘Graduation’ programs that increase women’s economic self-reliance and self-control, and the practice of repeated micro borrowing that increases financial risk-taking and choice. ‘Smart’ design also includes high quality business management and jobs skills training, and stipends and other incentives in these training programs that address women’s additional time burdens and childcare demands. Peer support may also help to increase financial risk taking and confidence in business decisions, and may augment an otherwise negligible impact of financial literacy training. These features help women overcome gender-related constraints. However, when social norms are too restrictive, and women are prevented from doing any paid work, no design will be smart enough. Subjective economic empowerment appears to be an important intermediate outcome for women that should be promoted and more reliably and accurately measured. More research is also needed on de-biasing service provision, which can be gender biased; lastly, whenever possible, results should be sex-disaggregated and reported for individuals as well as households.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, International Trade and Finance, and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
7. Expanding Global Liquidity Insurance: Myths and Realities of the IMF’s Precautionary Credit Lines
- Author:
- Nancy Birdsall, Liliana Rojas-Suarez, and Anna Diofasi
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Despite increasing volatility in the global economy, the uptake of the IMF’s two precautionary credit lines, the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) and the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL), has remained limited—currently to just four countries. The two new lending instruments were created in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008 to enable IMF member states to respond quickly and effectively to temporary balance of payment needs resulting from external shocks. Both credit lines offer immediate access to considerable sums—over 10 times a country’s IMF quota in some cases with no (FCL) or very limited (PLL) conditionality. This paper addresses four misconceptions (or ‘myths’) that have likely played a role in the limited utilization of the two precautionary credit lines: 1) too stringent qualification criteria that limit country eligibility; 2) insufficient IMF resources; 3) high costs of precautionary borrowing; and 4) the economic stigma associated with IMF assistance. We show, in fact, that the pool of eligible member states is likely to be seven to eight times larger than the number of current users; that with the 2016 quota reform IMF resources are more than adequate to support a larger precautionary portfolio; that the two IMF credit lines are among the least costly and most advantageous instruments for liquidity support countries have; and that there is no evidence of negative market developments for countries now participating in the precautionary lines.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8. Fiscal Policy, Income Redistribution and Poverty Reduction in Low and Middle Income Countries
- Author:
- Nora Lustig
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Current policy discussion focuses primarily on the power of fiscal policy to reduce inequality. Yet, comparable fiscal incidence analysis for 28 low and middle income countries reveals that, although fiscal systems are always equalizing, that is not always true for poverty. In Ethiopia, Tanzania, Ghana, Nicaragua, and Guatemala the extreme poverty headcount ratio is higher after taxes and transfers (excluding in-kind transfers) than before. In addition, to varying degrees, in all countries a portion of the poor are net payers into the fiscal system and are thus impoverished by the fiscal system. Consumption taxes are the main culprits of fiscally-induced impoverishment. Net direct taxes are always equalizing and indirect taxes net of subsidies are equalizing in nineteen countries of the 28. While spending on pre-school and primary school is pro-poor (i.e., the per capita transfer declines with income) in almost all countries, pro-poor secondary school spending is less prevalent, and tertiary education spending tends to be progressive only in relative terms (i.e., equalizing but not pro-poor). Health spending is always equalizing but not always pro-poor. More unequal countries devote more resources to redistributive spending and appear to redistribute more. The latter, however, is not a robust result across specifications.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
9. Analytic Foundations: Measuring the Redistributive Impact of Taxes and Transfers
- Author:
- Ali Enami, Nora Lustig, and Rodrigo Aranda
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- This paper provides a theoretical foundation for analyzing the redistributive effect of taxes and transfers for the case in which the ranking of individuals by pre-fiscal income remains unchanged. We show that in a world with more than a single fiscal instrument, the simple rule that progressive taxes or transfers are always equalizing not necessarily holds, and offer alternative rules that survive a theoretical scrutiny. In particular, we show that the sign of the marginal contribution unambiguously predicts whether a tax or a transfer is equalizing or not.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
10. The Impact of Taxes and Social Spending on Inequality and Poverty in El Salvador
- Author:
- Nora Lustig, Margarita Beneke, and José Andrés Oliva
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- We conducted a fiscal impact study to estimate the effect of taxes, social spending, and subsidies on inequality and poverty in El Salvador, using the methodology of the Commitment to Equity project. Taxes are progressive, but given their volume, their impact is limited. Direct transfers are concentrated on poor households, but their budget is small so their effect is limited; a significant portion of the subsidies goes to households in the upper income deciles, so although their budget is greater, their impact is low. The component that has the greatest effect on inequality is spending on education and health. Therefore, the impact of fiscal policy is limited and low when compared with other countries with a similar level of per capita income. There is room for improvement using current resources.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Poverty, and Income Inequality
- Political Geography:
- El Salvador