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1. Leveraging Knowledge Generation for Policy Impact: Recommendations for the World Bank

Author:
Amanda Glassman, Julia Kaufman, Ruth Levine, and Janeen Madan Keller
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Since the 2006 release of the CGD report When Will We Ever Learn? Improving Lives Through Impact Evaluation, there have been nearly two decades of progress in generating and using evidence for public policy decisions and development programs. There has been a steady increase in the number of impact evaluations—a rigorous approach that establishes the attributable net impact of a project or program. Their ability to assess attribution makes impact evaluations uniquely well suited for decision making. Nevertheless, the COVID-19 pandemic put a spotlight on an unfinished agenda and underscored the need for high-quality, timely, and context-specific evidence. Across sectors, decision makers in governments, aid agencies, multilateral organizations, and NGOs have not yet fully harnessed the value of evidence for better public policies. Numerous challenges limit evidence use. On the demand side, impact evaluations may lack relevance to policy decisions and fail to respond to decision makers’ priorities, timelines, and questions. On the supply side, decision makers often lack institutional incentives and funding to generate and act on relevant evidence. Current funding models compound these challenges by contributing to misaligned incentives between policymaker needs and academic researchers. In response to these challenges, CGD launched the Working Group on New Evidence Tools for Policy Impact to develop a renewed agenda for the next generation of investments in impact evaluation and related evidence systems to enhance their value for real-world decision making. The group brought together policymakers and experts to review the progress and obstacles to the use and utility of evidence for global development. Its final report highlights how far the field has come in addressing critiques about the scale, generalizability, and policy utility of impact evaluation, and offers recommendations to the development community on “what and how to fund to deliver on the promise of impact evaluation and bolster the broader evidence ecosystem.” The working group proposes five ways to improve impact evaluation funding and practice: (1) design evaluations that start from the policy question and decision space; (2) harness technology for timely, lower-cost evidence; (3) advance locally grounded evidence-to-policy partnerships; (4) enact new incentives and structures to strengthen evidence use; and (5) invest in evidence leaders and communities.
Topic:
International Cooperation, World Bank, Finance, and Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Let Them Eat Carbon

Author:
Vijaya Ramachandran and Arthur Baker
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The push for the World Bank and others to link their investments to addressing climate concerns stems from a fear that, unless developing countries take action to decarbonize now, their economic growth will lead to vast emissions that will derail all global efforts to limit climate change. This approach, which treats low- and middle-income countries as a monolith, is unhelpful to the conversation about climate change. To understand better where emissions are concentrated and how to address them, we projected carbon dioxide emissions to 2035—the point at which observers believe they will level off in most countries due to technological advances and accumulating wealth—under some simple assumptions. Emissions from the world’s poorest 64 countries, those which get IDA loans, will remain very low for decades to come, even if their economies grow rapidly and without action to reduce emissions. Pressuring low- and lower-middle-income countries to replace plans for gas power with solar or wind energy will have limited climate benefits compared to replacing coal generation in richer countries. It is just more efficient—and just—to focus on climate mitigation where emissions are high, and on poverty reduction where poverty is high. And given that there is no sign of an increase in aid spending, especially in the poorest countries, rich countries must not cannibalize development aid or reinvent the development finance architecture
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, World Bank, Finance, Banking, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Who Are the World’s Poor? A New Profile of Global Multidimensional Poverty

Author:
Gisela Robles Aguilar and Andy Sumner
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Who are the world’s poor? This paper presents a new global profile of multidimensional poverty using three specifications of multidimensional poverty. The paper draws comparisons with the global monetary poverty profile and with the new World Bank measure of combined monetary and non-monetary poverty; discusses how global poverty differs by specification, the extent of multidimensionality, and presents a set of estimates of the disaggregated characteristics of global multidimensional poverty in 2015. We find the following: (i) at an aggregate level, the overall characteristics of global multidimensional poverty are similar to those of global monetary poverty at $1.90 per day; (ii) at a disaggregated level, we find that poverty in rural areas tends to be characterized by overlapping deprivations in education and access to decent infrastructure (water, sanitation, electricity, and housing) and counterintuitively, given the proximity, in principle, to better health care and economic opportunities, it is child mortality and malnutrition that is more frequently observed within urban poverty; and (iii) the extent of the multidimensionality of poverty differs substantially by region; moreover, some deprivations frequently overlap while others do not.
Topic:
Poverty, World Bank, Inequality, and Rural
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. Examining World Bank Lending to China: Graduation or Modulation?

Author:
Scott Morris and Gailyn Portelance
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Under the World Bank’s 2018 capital agreement, borrowing countries are expected to gradually reduce their portfolios once a base income threshold—the Graduation Discussion Income (GDI)—is reached. However, the agreement also affirms the case for ongoing lending to these countries. One justification is tied to external value beyond the borrowing country’s borders (global public goods, or GPGs). Another is tied to building capacity within the borrowing country, which can mean a focus on sub-regions where poverty remains high and capacity weak. In this paper, we examine World Bank graduation policies and lending through the lens of China, which maintains a large portfolio of World Bank projects. China currently exceeds the GDI thresholds for IBRD borrowing at the national level, while income inequality within the country leaves many noncoastal provinces below the GDI per capita threshold. Aggregate and provincial-level analysis of World Bank lending in China shows that less than half of China’s portfolio comprises activities clearly linked to GPGs, while a slight majority of projects are based in provinces with per capita income below the GDI threshold. A substantial number of World Bank projects in China focus on climate change mitigation and transportation infrastructure construction, while a smaller number relate to capacity building. Overall, we find evidence that China’s borrowing is broadly consistent with the 2018 principles of institutional capacity strengthening and GPG-related engagement, although significant areas of bank engagement do not appear to fall within the parameters of these principles.
Topic:
Poverty, Infrastructure, World Bank, and Inequality
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5. World Bank Financing to Support Refugees and Their Hosts: Recommendations for IDA19

Author:
Lauren Post, Cindy Huang, and Sarah Charles
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In its 18th replenishment of the International Development Association (IDA18, covering 2017–2020), the World Bank made a game-changing decision to create a US$2 billion financing window to support low-income countries hosting large numbers of refugees.[1] This financing is significant for two key reasons. First, in its scale and scope, the Refugee Sub-Window (RSW) is responsive to both the programmatic and policy needs of protracted refugee crises. Second, in supporting both refugees and their host communities, the RSW aligns refugee responses with host countries’ national development plans.
Topic:
Development, World Bank, Refugees, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Promoting Investment in Research for Development Outcomes: A Research Ventures Fund at the World Bank

Author:
Scott Morris
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This note proposes a new Research Ventures Fund (RVF) at the World Bank to better prioritize R&D investments in support of development progress. The RVF would employ financing mechanisms that are consistent with research needs: significant scale and scope, patience, and tolerance for failure. Existing development-oriented research consortia like CGIAR would provide a promising start for RVF funding allocations. Donors to the IDA-19 replenishment should take the first step in securing funding for the new fund in 2019.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, World Bank, Finance, Research, and Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. Rethinking the Financial Design of the World Bank

Author:
Devesh Kapur and Arjun Raychaudhuri
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Since their inception, through 2012, the institutions comprising the World Bank group have been involved in lending nearly a trillion dollars. In this paper, we focus on the IBRD, which is the core of the World Bank. The IBRD has the potential to continue to grow and be an important player in official financial flows, supporting critical long-term development projects with large social returns, in sectors ranging from infrastructure, social sectors, or environment.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Environment, Foreign Aid, Infrastructure, and World Bank
Political Geography:
Europe

8. The Median Is the Message: A Good-Enough Measure of Material Well-Being and Shared Development Progress

Author:
Nancy Birdsall and Christian J. Meyer
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
We argue that survey-based median household consumption expenditure (or income) per capita be incorporated into standard development indicators, as a simple, robust, and durable indicator of typical individual material well-being in a country. Using household survey data available for low- and middle-income countries from the World Bank's PovcalNet tool, we show that as a measure of income-related well-being, it is far superior to the commonly used GDP per capita as well as survey-based measures at the mean. We also argue that survey-based median measures are "distributionaware", i.e. when used as the denominator of various widely available indicators such as mean consumption expenditure per capita they provide a "good-enough" indicator of consumption (or income) inequality. Finally, as a post-2015 indicator of progress at the country-level in promoting shared development and reducing inequality, we propose that the rate of increase in median consumption per capita after taxes and transfers exceed the rate of increase in average consumption in the same period.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, Poverty, and World Bank
Political Geography:
United Nations

9. Supporting Private Business Growth in African Fragile States: A Guiding Framework for the World Bank Group in South Sudan and Other Nations

Author:
Vijaya Ramachandran, Benjamin Leo, and Ross Thuotte
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The World Bank Group faces significant operational changes over the near to medium term. More than half of poor countries are projected to graduate from the World Bank's International Development Association (IDA) concessional assistance over the next 15 years. As a result, IDA's country client base is projected to become dominated by African fragile states. To its credit, the World Bank Group recognizes these coming changes and the unique needs and constraints present in fragile environments. It has publicly expressed a plan to develop an organization-wide strategy tailored specifically for fragile and conflict-affected situations.
Topic:
Development, Foreign Aid, Fragile/Failed State, and World Bank
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

10. How Can the World Bank Group Improve Its Private Sector Projects in African Fragile States?

Author:
Vijaya Ramachandran, Benjamin Leo, and Ross Thuotte
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In recent years, the World Bank Group has made increasingly strong and explicit commitments to fragile and conflict-affected states, putting them at the top of the development policy agenda. These commitments are promising, but give rise to significant operational challenges for the various arms of the World Bank Group, including the International Development Association (IDA), the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA). The bank also faces steady pressure from shareholders to scale up involvement in fragile states while also improving absorptive capacity and project effectiveness.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Markets, Foreign Aid, and World Bank
Political Geography:
Africa

11. IDA at 65: Heading Toward Retirement or a Fragile Lease on Life?

Author:
Todd Moss and Benjamin Leo
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Even under conservative assumptions, IDA will likely face a wave of country graduations by 2025. We project that it will lose more than half of its client countries and that the total population living in IDA-eligible countries will plunge by two-thirds. The remaining IDA-eligible countries will be significantly smaller in size and overwhelmingly African, and a majority are currently considered fragile or post-conflict. This drastically altered client base will have significant implications for IDA's operational and financial models. We conclude with three possible options for IDA and recommend that World Bank shareholders and management begin frank discussions on its future sooner rather than later.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Health, World Bank, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
Africa

12. World Bank (ABCs of the IFIs Brief)

Author:
Jenny Ottenhoff
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The World Bank is a multilateral financial institution that provides financial and technical assistance for development in low- and middle-income countries. Finance is allocated through low-interest loans and grants for a range of development sectors such as health and education, infrastructure, public administration, financial and private-sector development, agriculture, and environmental and natural resource management.
Topic:
Development, Education, Environment, Health, Foreign Aid, Infrastructure, and World Bank
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Indonesia, and India

13. Leadership Selection at the International Financial Institutions

Author:
Jenny Ottenhoff
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The International Financial Institutions (IFIs) are multilateral agencies. The term typically refers to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which provides financing and policy advice to member nations experiencing economic difficulties, and the multilateral development banks (MDBs), which provide financing and technical support for development projects and economic reform in low- and middle-income countries. The term MDB is usually understood to mean the World Bank and four smaller regional development banks: African Development Bank (AfDB). Asian Development Bank (ADB). European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Monetary Fund, Foreign Aid, and World Bank
Political Geography:
Africa, America, Europe, and Asia

14. The U.S. Aid "Surge" to Pakistan: Repeating a Failed Experiment? Lessons for U.S. Policymakers from the World Bank's Social-Sector Lending in the 1990s

Author:
Nancy Birdsall and Molly Kinder
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
During the 1990s, the World Bank and several donor partners provided a “surge” in external aid to support Pakistan's social sectors. Despite the millions of donor dollars spent, the program failed. Poverty was higher in Pakistan in 2004 than it was a decade earlier when the antipoverty program began. This working paper re-releases a CGD analysis of the World Bank's program, which was prepared in 2005 by CGD researchers Nancy Birdsall, Milan Vaishnav, and Adeel Malik. The analysis reports the many problems donors faced while working with Pakistan's government to improve health and education outcomes. A new preface by Nancy Birdsall and Molly Kinder identifies the key lessons from this massive donor experiment that are relevant today, as the United States and other donors prepare to increase their assistance to Pakistan to historic levels.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Foreign Aid, and World Bank
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, and Central Asia

15. Are Funding Decisions Based on Performance?

Author:
Nandini Oomman, Steven Rosenzweig, and Michael Bernstein
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
To what extent do the major funders of HIV/AIDS programs in developing countries use past performance to guide decisions about future funding? This question is important for those concerned with the effectiveness of the significant funding flows for the treatment, care, and prevention of HIV and AIDS: linking funding to performance can help ensure that the best programs are given continued resources (and the failing ones are not) and that program managers have the strongest incentives to perform at a high level and to improve the performance of their programs. Performance-based funding can also have unintended negative consequences. Linking funding to performance can also induce single-minded attention to specific targets to the exclusion of harder-to-measure but important outcomes and loss of integrity of information systems.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Non-Governmental Organization, Foreign Aid, and World Bank
Political Geography:
United States

16. Billions More for International Institutions? The ABCs of the General Capital Increases (GCI)

Author:
Todd Moss, Sarah Jane Staats, and Julia Barmeier
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The international financial institutions dramatically increased their lending in 2008–09 to help developing countries cope with the global financial crisis and support economic recovery. Today, these organizations are seeking billions of dollars in new funding. The IMF, which only a few years ago was losing clients and shedding staff, expanded by $750 billion last year. The World Bank and the four regional development banks for Africa, Asia, Europe, and Latin America are asking to increase their capital base by 30 to 200 percent. A general capital increase (GCI) for these development banks is an unusual request. A simultaneous GCI request is a once-in-a-generation occurrence.
Topic:
International Relations, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, and World Bank
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Asia, and Latin America