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1. India’s Trade Policy Dilemma and the Role of Domestic Reform

Author:
Hardeep.S Puri
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
India faces significant challenges in the area of trade policy— the global economic slowdown, increasing protectionism, the stalled mega-trade deals that could in time be revived, and perhaps more important, its own domestic preoccupations. For India to achieve its policy objectives, the government and industry, particularly the manufacturing sector, must prepare for opportunities and greater engagement in an evolving multilateral trade arena. India’s priorities should include taking policy measures to conform to global standards and supporting the World Trade Organization (WTO) to relaunch multilateral negotiations.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Global Markets, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
India

2. Time to Reset the European Neighborhood Policy

Author:
Stefan Lehne
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Through its European Neighborhood Policy (ENP), the European Union (EU) aims to support the structural transformation of its Eastern and Southern neighbors, promoting democracy, the rule of law, and successful market economies. Ten years after the ENP's launch, it is clear that the policy is not working. Adjusting the ENP to the changing reality on the ground, sharpening its tools, and rebuilding its credibility should be a top priority for the EU's foreign policy leadership.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Europe

3. Exploring the Prospects for Russian-Turkish Cooperation in a Turbulent Neighborhood

Author:
Dmitri V. Trenin and Memduh Karakullukçu
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Even though tensions over Ukraine will inevitably cast a shadow over the bilateral relationship, Russia and Turkey—a NATO member—continue to share a range of important interests. Indeed, there are a number of areas in which the two can work together in their common neighborhood, which stretches from the South Caucasus and the Levant to Central Asia and Afghanistan. A high-level working group on Russian-Turkish regional cooperation has sketched a forward-looking approach for Russia and Turkey in tackling regional challenges.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia

4. Locked In or Left Out? Transatlantic Trade Beyond Brussels and Washington

Author:
Sinan Ülgen
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Many countries are interested in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) that Brussels and Washington are negotiating. But the United States and the European Union (EU) began talks without devising a way to involve their main trade partners. This approach, understandable given the complexity of the negotiations, could produce a bilateral agreement that is difficult to multilateralize. To influence the negotiations, third countries interested in eventually joining TTIP should pursue an agenda centered on the accession mechanism, the elimination of nontariff barriers, and dispute settlement.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

5. The Impact of Asian Investment on Africa's Textile Industries

Author:
Tang Xiaoyang
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Asian investors' impact on Africa's cotton, textile, and apparel sectors may have profound consequences for the continent's industrialization and development. As southeast African countries seek to industrialize and build indigenous cotton-textile-apparel value chains, the interactions between Asian—particularly Chinese—investors and African companies become more and more complex. Indeed, Asian investors present both a challenge to and an opportunity for local industries, and southeast African countries need a clear vision and tailored policies to make the most of the opportunities. Asian investors' impact on Africa's cotton, textile, and apparel sectors may have profound consequences for the continent's industrialization and development. As southeast African countries seek to industrialize and build indigenous cotton-textile-apparel value chains, the interactions between Asian-particularly Chinese-investors and African companies become more and more complex. Indeed, Asian investors present both a challenge to and an opportunity for local industries, and southeast African countries need a clear vision and tailored policies to make the most of the opportunities.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa and Asia

6. The Eurasian Customs Union: Friend or Foe of the EU?

Author:
Olga Shumylo-Tapiola
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The customs union formed by Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan in 2010— the largest in the world by territory—is becoming very real. Though hurdles remain, member states are eliminating non-tariff barriers to trade within the union, moving toward a common external tariff, and fine-tuning a joint customs code. As the customs union's influence on the world stage and in Europe's neighborhood is likely to increase, the European Union (EU) should attempt to understand the project and find ways to protect its own interests.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Eurasia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus

7. The Underachiever: Ukraine's Economy Since 1991

Author:
Pekka Sutela
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
When Ukraine became independent in 1991, there were expectations that it would in the near future become a wealthy free market democracy and a full member of the European and Euro-Atlantic communities. The largest country geographically wholly European, and the fifth-biggest European nation by size of population, it was hoped, would become a member of the European Union (EU), the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
Topic:
Corruption, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Atlantic Ocean

8. India and Europe in a Multipolar World

Author:
Bernd von Muenchow-Pohl
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The image of India as an emerging power is widely held, but there is equal reason to see the European Union as an emerging power, too, even at the risk of raising eyebrows. Like India, the EU seeks to become a global political player on top of being a great economic power. As the global power dynamic shifts, both are trying to define their roles in an emerging multipolar world. The question arises whether closer cooperation can help the EU and India to achieve their ambitions. Though they have committed to a strategic partnership, in its present state the EU-India relationship has been likened to a “loveless arranged marriage.” With each increasingly absorbed by domestic problems, the prospects for closer ties are fading, notwithstanding the opportunities that would be lost.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Power Politics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, India, and Asia

9. Malaysia's China Policy in the Post-Mahathir Era: A Neoclassical Realist Explanation

Author:
KUIK Cheng-Chwee
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Malaysia's China policy in the post-Cold War era – as an instance of a smaller state's strategy toward a proximate and rising great power – has been characterized by three patterns. First, there was a shift from hostility and guarded rapprochement during the Cold War to cordiality and maturing partnership in the post-Cold War era. Second, despite the overall positive development, Malaysia's China policy has remained, in essence, a hedging approach that is driven by both a pragmatic desire to maximize benefits from a closer relationship with the neighboring giant and a contingent calculation to guard against any long-term strategic risks in the uncertain regional environment. Third, such a two-pronged approach, which took shape since the 1990s under Mahathir Mohamad, has endured beyond the Mahathir era. Indeed, under his successors Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and Najib Tun Razak, Malaysia has continued to pursue a policy of dualism vis-à-vis China. What explains the enduring continuity of the hedging approach in Malaysia's China policy? This paper adopts a neoclassical realist perspective, arguing that the continuity is attributed to both structural and domestic factors. Domestically, the changing bases of political legitimation in the multi-ethnic country, which highlight the increasing salience of economic performance and political inclusiveness as key sources of moral authority to the UMNO-led coalition government, have necessitated the succeeding leaders to continue pursuing a pragmatic policy aimed at ensuring a stable and productive relationship with China, not least to gain from the steadily growing bilateral trade and the giant's growing outward investment. Structurally, Malaysia's position as a smaller state has compelled it to be constantly vigilant about the uncertainty of state intentions and inter-great power relations, which in turn demands it adopts contingent measures to hedge against longer-term risks. It is such structural and domestic determinants that have fundamentally shaped the country's policy towards China in general and the South China Sea issue in particular, which characteristically bears the mark of a delicate dualism, i.e. an explicit preference for engaging China through bilateral and multilateral diplomacy, but one that is backed by a low-key practice of maintaining and strengthening its traditional military links with its Western security partners.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Cold War, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Malaysia, and Israel

10. A Regional Approach to WMD Nonproliferation in the Asia-Pacific

Author:
Togzhan Kassenova
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Asia-Pacific region epitomizes the type of proliferation challenges the international community faces. Globalization turned the region into one of the most important international trade hubs, the home to leading dual-use companies, and the anticipated site of the world's most significant growth in nuclear energy. While those trends are beneficial, they also create new sources of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) proliferation.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Asia and Australia

11. Making the Transition: From Middle-Income to Advanced Economies

Author:
Alejandro Foxley and Fernando Sossdorf
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Few middle-income countries have successfully transitioned into advanced economies in the past twenty years. As the world struggles with a new economic slowdown, middle-income countries should look at the lessons from the economies that successfully made the jump.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis

12. The Battle of Dubai: The United Arab Emirates and the U.S.-Iran Cold War

Author:
Karim Sadjadpour
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
As the United States seeks to contain Iran's nuclear ambitions through economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has come to play a critical yet often ambiguous role. The UAE, namely the emirate of Dubai, is a top source of Iranian imports and a key transshipment point for goods-legal and illegal-destined for the Islamic Republic. Dubai's bustling and loosely regulated ports have repeatedly frustrated international sanctions against Iran.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Dubai

13. Looking for Help: Will Rising Democracies Become International Democracy Supporters?

Author:
Thomas Carothers and Richard Youngs
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The emergence of a multipolar world gives Western democracy advocates cause for both optimism and anxiety. China's success sparks fears of the spread of an autocratic development model. Yet democratic states such as Brazil, Indonesia, India, South Africa, and Turkey are also gaining ground. These countries serve as powerful examples of the universal appeal of democracy and possess unique experiences with democratization. The United States and Europe understandably hope that rising democracies will use their growing prominence to defend democratic values abroad, potentially revitalizing international democracy support.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Human Rights, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Indonesia, Turkey, India, South Africa, and Brazil

14. The New Role of Central and Eastern Europe in International Democracy Support

Author:
Tsveta Petrova
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The new democracies of Central and Eastern Europe are increasingly engaging in international democracy support, especially in the former Soviet Union and the Western Balkans. They have leveraged their membership in a number of Euro-Atlantic international organizations and used their bilateral diplomatic ties with democratization laggards to motivate and pressure them to observe democratic norms and practices. They are also been supplying small but growing amounts of democracy assistance.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Soviet Union and Balkans

15. Russia, China and the Geopolitics of Energy in Central Asia

Author:
Alexandros Petersen and Katinka Barysch
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Energy has come to symbolise the geopolitics of the 21st century, reflecting countries' diminishing reliance on military and political power. Today, energy is an instrument of geopolitical competition, like nuclear weapons or large armies were during the Cold War. The means of international influence have become more diverse and sophisticated, but the goals remain much the same: national security, power projection, and control over resources and territory.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Central Asia

16. Global Rebalancing: The Dangerous Obsession

Author:
Uri Dadush
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The current emphasis on global rebalancing—which aims to reduce trade deficits and surpluses—is misguided. Trade deficits and surpluses narrowed significantly during the Great Recession, can be financed and eased over time, and are largely the result of domestic forces—making further global rebalancing unlikely. The obsession with global rebalancing stokes currency and protectionist tensions and diverts attention from what is really needed—reforms at home. Rather than focusing on global rebalancing, countries should concentrate more on fixing their domestic problems and expanding their domestic demand at the maximum sustainable rate.
Topic:
Debt, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis

17. Innovation and the Visible Hand: China, Indigenous Innovation, and the Role of Government Procurement

Author:
Nathaniel Ahrens
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Indigenous innovation has become the greatest immediate source of economic friction between the United States and China. This trend is not unique to these two countries; policy makers globally are actively trying to stimulate domestic innovation. The burgeoning markets for biotech and environment-related products and services and, potentially even more important, countries' efforts to emerge from the global economic slowdown all reinforce this trend. Mindful of this global scene, China has made indigenous innovation one of the core elements of its attempt to make a structural shift up the industrial value chain.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States and China

18. Russia's Neglected Energy Reserves

Author:
John P. Millhone
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Russia has the world's largest share of fossil energy resources. During the Soviet era, because this wealth of resources insulated the country from global energy crises, citizens never had to worry about conserving energy, and much was squandered. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the situation has improved in western, urban Russia, but great expanses of this vast country continue their inefficient ways. Indeed, recognizing that minimizing waste helps preserve Russia's resources, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev successfully urged the Duma to pass sweeping new energy-efficiency legislation. But more remains to be done to identify how energy resources are used and wasted, and where efficiency might be improved.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Russia and Soviet Union

19. Regional Trade Blocs: The Way to the Future?

Author:
Alejandro Foxley
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
While middle-income countries have pursued regional trade agreements since the 1960s, these ties are becoming more important as the global economic crisis curtails demand from the United States and other major markets. With the Doha Round of multilateral trade talks stalled, regional trade agreements (RTAs) offer an alternative approach to increase trade, spur stronger economic growth, and lower unemployment rates in participating countries.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, and Latin America

20. WTO Reform: The Time to Start Is Now

Author:
Uri Dadush
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Since its inception in 1995, the World Trade Organization has been the guardian of stability and predictability in world trade, but it has failed to fulfill its promise as a source of new trade rules and liberalization. Conclusion of the diluted Doha Development Agenda will not end the need for WTO reform. At the heart of WTO reform must be a more flexible approach to negotiations, one more tailored to the needs of individual countries and groups. The process of reflection and consultation on WTO reform should begin with the WTO Ministerial in Geneva in November.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Geneva

21. Avoiding Mutual Misunderstanding: Sino-U.S. Relations and the New Administration

Author:
Tianjian Shi and Meredith Wen
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
After the election of Barack Obama as president, Carnegie's Beijing Office assembled a group of leading scholars of international relations to discuss their expectations of the new administration. This policy brief conveys their opinions on various aspects of Sino-American relations and on America foreign policy in general.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Beijing

22. The G20 Meetings: No Common Framework, No Consensus

Author:
Michael Pettis
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Participants in the recently completed G20 meeting in London agreed on a number of measures, some substantial and some merely symbolic, but they sidestepped the real issues dividing the major economic powers and, in so doing, failed to address the root causes of the global trade and investment imbalances. This was almost inevitable. China, Europe, and the United States have incompatible conceptual frameworks for understanding the causes of the global financial crisis; furthermore, their conflicting domestic political constraints make agreement on solutions hard to reach. Europeans believe that the root cause of the crisis was excessively deregulated financial systems, and they are skeptical about U.S. and Chinese calls for fiscal expansion, worrying that excessive spending would prolong the imbalances and make the ultimate adjustment more difficult. China also believes that the roots of the crisis lie within the structure of the global financial system, although Beijing insists that it was mainly the reserve status of the U.S. dollar that permitted imbalances to develop to unsustainable levels. China is particularly vulnerable to trade protection and seeks to maintain open markets for its continued export of domestic overcapacity. Like the United States, it is pushing for more aggressive, globally coordinated fiscal expansion. However, because of rigidities in its financial system and development model, its fiscal response to the crisis may exacerbate the difficult global adjustment and may, ironically, increase the chances of trade friction. In a time of contracting demand, the United States controls two-thirds of the most valuable resource in the world: net demand. Consequently, it is U.S. policies that will determine the pace and direction of the global recovery, along with the institutional framework that will govern trade and investment relationships for decades to come. The crisis puts the United States more firmly at the center of the emerging world order than ever. So far, the United States has not understood the need to consider the global outcomes of its recovery policies. Until the major powers can reach consensus about the roots of the imbalance and cooperate on policies to promote recovery, it is likely that the world economy will get worse before it gets better. The United States will drive the recovery process, but in order to do so effectively it will need to recognize its position of strength and negotiate the appropriate agreements with other major powers, especially China, on the pace and nature of the adjustment.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and London

23. Managing Arab Sovereign Wealth in Turbulent Times—and Beyond

Author:
Sven Behrendt and Bassma Kodmani
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The debate about the role that sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) from Arab and other emerging economies play in international financial markets has been a highly cyclical one. Only twelve months ago, the Western public questioned the deeper rationales for sovereign investments in what were perceived to be strategic assets of Western economies. Commentators argued that these investments could harm the long-term competitiveness and national security of Western economies.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Arabia

24. Russia and the Global Meltdown: Domestic and Foreign Policy Responses to the International Financial Crisis

Author:
Robert Jellinek
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
This paper has its origins in the observation that government responses to the global financial crisis are as much political phenomena as they are economic. The current global financial crisis, among its many consequences, has on a very high level shaken up the world political order. And while the crisis is international in origin—its roots lie in the breadth and the degree of the dispersal of risk associated with mortgagebacked securities, as well as the growing imbalance in international capital flows—its resolution is necessarily being carried out first and foremost on a domestic level. This is not least of all because, in the decade since the Asian financial crises, states have begun to play a dramatically increased role in international finance in relation to both multilateral financial institutions such as the IMF and traditional private actors. In an age where global economic ties are integral to domestic economies and where states themselves are becoming some of the biggest players in international capital markets, a state's global financial standing will more than ever determine its political clout on the world stage. With states acting as market makers, lenders of last resort, and regulators of last resort, the key to understanding the future of individual states in the global economic order can be found only by analyzing states' domestic and foreign policy decisions within the context of the specific constraints facing those states at home and abroad.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Russia and Asia

25. Brazil in the Global Economy: Measuring the Gains From Trade

Author:
Sandra Polaski, Dirk Willenbockel, Eduardo Zepeda, Scott McDonald, Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreir, Janine Berg, and Karen Thierfelder
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Brazil's economic growth rate has been positive for the past eight years, after two decades of setbacks and extreme volatility. The country has once again been growing—for a sustained period—at rates that exceed its population growth, with average gross domestic product (GDP) growth per capita averaging 1.63 percent from 2000 to 2007. This exceeds average per capita GDP growth of 0.83 percent from 1980 to 1989 and 0.28 percent from 1990 to 1999, although it still falls well short of the 5.92 percent per capita growth rate from 1970 to 1979.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, and Governance
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

26. Recovery: The Global Financial Crisis and Middle-Income Countries

Author:
Alejandro Foxley
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
No country has proved immune to the devastating effects of the current global financial crisis. But the middle-income countries of Eastern Europe, Latin America, and East Asia, which previously had achieved significant progress—economically and socially—have shown themselves to be particularly vulnerable. The crisis has highlighted important lessons for these countries, which inhabit a twilight zone between the developed and developing worlds?and those that aspire to join their ranks—as they rebuild.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, East Asia, and Latin America

27. The Impact of the Doha Round on Kenya

Author:
Eduardo Zepeda, Mohamed Chemingui, Hedi Bchir, Christopher Onyango, and Bernadette Wanjala
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
As the first decade of the twenty- first century comes to an end, Kenya's economy is being confronted with a number of challenges that call for carefully crafted, well- informed policies. After fifteen years of stagnation—when the country witnessed zero increase in its gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and investment at levels below 20 percent of GDP—it has risen to become one of Africa's fast growing economies (see Arbache and Page 2008). Between 2004 and 2007, Kenya's economy showed signs of revitalization, and the average annual growth rate climbed above 5 percent, allowing Kenyans to finally enjoy an increase in GDP per capita. However, the political turmoil of 2008 slowed growth, and the current global financial and economic crisis has made it difficult to return to high growth rates. Thus, Kenya now faces shrinking export markets, rising protectionist measures worldwide, and meager financial flows.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

28. Market Versus State: Postcrisis Economics in Latin America

Author:
Alejandro Foxley
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The global financial crisis has reignited the fierce debate about the roles of the market and the state in modern economies. Latin America, in particular, revisits this debate every time it suffers an external shock. While some blame unregulated markets, others fault states' inability to design institutions or implement policies capable of neutralizing the negative impact of these shocks on output, employment, and social welfare.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Latin America

29. Can Trade Policy Support the Next Global Climate Agreement?

Author:
Margaret Lay
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The global trade and environment regimes have a rich history of conflicts and synergies that holds important lessons for current initiatives to develop and implement effective national and global climate policy. This paper explores the relationship between the trade and environment regimes and asks how climate negotiators can harness the powerful incentives of international trade to support the next global climate regime.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, and International Trade and Finance

30. EU and U.S. Free Trade Agreements in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Riad al Khouri
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The political situation in much of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is subject to persistent tension due to the Arab–Israeli conflict, the war in Iraq and its spillovers to other countries, and sporadic upsurges of terrorism. In addition, some countries face serious domestic political tensions, a lack of political openness, and the increasing popularity of Islamist opposition groups. Economically, fast demographic and labor force expansion has led to high un- employment and slow growth in per capita incomes. Unsustainable management of the environment and natural resources further threatens prospects for long-term economic growth. In this context, increased economic cooperation between the MENA countries, on the one hand, and the United States and the European Union (EU), on the other, aims not only at promoting growth and development but also at fostering more stable political environments.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and North Africa

31. Breaking the Suicide Pact: U.S.–China Cooperation on Climate Change

Author:
William Chandler
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The United States and China seemingly remain locked in a climate suicide pact, each arguing the other is the reason for inaction. U.S.–China climate cooperation is urgently needed to avert climate disaster. The current situation of the energy sectors in the United States and China offers a solution. China and the United States can set and cooperate to achieve national goals and implement enforceable measures. If this U.S.– China policy experiment works, China and the United States could develop packages of policies and measures, test them for efficacy, correct them, and share them with other countries.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

32. China's Economic Rise -- Fact and Fiction

Author:
Albert Keidel
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
China's economy will surpass that of the United States by 2035 and be twice its size by midcentury, a new report by Albert Keidel concludes. China's rapid growth is driven by domestic demand—not exports—and will sustain high single-digit growth rates well into this century. In China's Economic Rise—Fact and Fiction, Keidel examines China's likely economic trajectory and its implications for global commercial, institutional, and military leadership.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

33. China's Economic Fluctuations: Implications for its Rural Economy

Author:
Albert Keidel
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Since market reforms began in 1978, China's economy has shown cyclical fluctuations. These cycles of change appear in obvious statistical patterns-faster growth and then slower growth, higher price inflation and then lower inflation, stronger investment flows and then weaker investment-and all are accompanied by other cyclical fluctuations in a range of variables and policy initiatives. Most of these fluctuations tend to move together. Their beauty is that they allow analysis of which fluctuations influence others and, by extension, which policies might make a difference in managing China's economy. In this regard, the cyclical interaction between China's formal urban economy and its rural economy is particularly relevant for the issues facing Chinese policy makers today.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

34. India's Trade Policy Choices

Author:
Sherman Robinson, Sandra Polaski, Scott McDonald, Manoj Panda, and A. Ganesh-Kumar
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
India's economic growth has accelerated in recent years, and its share of world trade has expanded. These are welcome developments for the country and, given India's large share of the world's population, for the global economy. Yet, despite these recent positive trends, India faces daunting challenges and policy decisions if it is to maintain high economic growth rates, employ its burgeoning population, and raise incomes across the full range of households, skill levels, sectors, and regions. India remains the largest reservoir of poverty in the world. Its recent high growth has been driven mainly by its modern services sector, which accounts for only a small proportion of overall employment and household incomes. Its agricultural sector is in a deep crisis, whether measured by slow growth rates, persistent rural poverty, or widespread farmer suicides.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
India

35. Intellectual Property Rights as a Key Obstacle to Russia's WTO Accession

Author:
Matthew Ocheltree and Sherman Katz
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Russia has been in the process of seeking membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) since June 1993. Currently, the United States is the only major economic power that has yet to finalize a bilateral market access agreement with the Russian Federation. Most observers of the situation concur that the enforcement of intellectual property rights laws remains, along with agriculture, one of the two major hurdles to Russian accession to the World Trade Organization.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

36. Development and Foreign Investments: Lessons Learned from Mexican Banking

Author:
Jacob Steinfeld
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) HAS TRANSFORMED MEXICO'S BANKING SYSTEM during the past decade, making it the second largest in Latin America with $165 billion in commercial assets in 2003. In the past four years, Mexico received $25.3 billion of FDI into its financial sector. This composes nearly 40 percent of total FDI inflows into the country. As a result of FDI flowing into the country's financial sector, the Mexican banking system has the highest ratio of foreign ownership in Latin America.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

37. Decoding Cancun: Hard Decisions for a Development Round

Author:
George Perkovich, Sandra Polaski, John Audley, and Scott Vaughan
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Following the riotous 1999 meeting in Seattle, and a near failure in Doha in 2001, the World Trade Organization dedicated the current round of trade liberalization talks to “development.” Negotiators will meet in Cancun, Mexico, in September amid competing claims regarding what steps are necessary to make trade serve development goals. The catch phrases of international trade—“comparative advantage,” “the development round,” “trade not aid,” and “level playing field”—hide tough choices for both developing and developed country governments. Getting trade rules right is not sufficient for development, but getting them wrong can cripple it. The authors outline the policies that governments and international institutions will need to avoid a debacle at Cancun and to assist developing countries in achieving long-lasting growth.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Mexico

38. Strengthening Linkages Between U.S. Trade Policy and Environmental Capacity Building

Author:
John Audley and Vanessa Ulmer
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
ATTENTION TO TRADE-RELATED TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE and capacity building (TCB) has surged as people from all walks of life explore how the global trade regime can be structured to better promote equitable, sustainable human development. TCB strengthens developing countries' human, physical, and institutional capacities to participate in trade negotiations, implement trade commitments, and benefit from integration into the global trading system. Given the Bush administration's goal to “ignite a new era of global economic growth through free markets and free trade,” capacity building has become an important component of U.S. bilateral, regional, and multilateral trade negotiations.
Topic:
Environment and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

39. Liberalizing Agricultural Trade and Developing Countries

Author:
David Orden, Rashid S. Kaukab, and Eugenio Diaz-Bonilla
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
A diverse group of development and trade liberalization advocates agree that reduction of agricultural protection and subsidization in the world's wealthy countries is necessary to strengthen both international growth opportunities and the global trade regime. According to the consensus reached among participants attending a conference cosponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Cordell Hull Institute, WTO Doha Round negotiations on agriculture should compel policy changes in industrialized countries to limit trade-distorting domestic subsidies for agricultural products, lower tariffs, increase market access, and eliminate export subsidies. In response to temporary hardships caused by an overall reduction in agriculture support, governments should have the flexibility to adopt temporary or limited domestic, and perhaps international, compensatory policies. Significant differences in perspective and policy prescriptions were expressed by conference participants about the appropriate speed and scope of agricultural liberalization in developing countries, especially if progress is not made toward reduced support for agriculture in developed countries.
Topic:
Development, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

40. Trade Preferences and Environmental Goods

Author:
Scott Vaughan
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
For the World Trade Organization (WTO), the most important development in a decade related to trade-environment linkages is the agreement to liberalize commerce in environmental goods and services. If properly executed, the agreement will increase the availability of “green” goods in global markets and break the North-South deadlock that has paralyzed discussions on the trade regime governing such goods.
Topic:
Environment, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

41. Trade and Labor Standards: A Strategy for Developing Countries

Author:
Sandra Polaski
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
A debate has raged between developed and developing country governments for several years over whether or not to establish a global agreement on minimum labor standards that would be enforced at the international level through the World Trade Organization (WTO) or some other mechanism. That debate has become stale and ritualized. In the meantime the world has changed. For developing countries, the environment in which global labor standards must be considered was transformed in 2002.
Topic:
Development, Industrial Policy, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China

42. New Role in U.S. Trade Policy

Author:
John Audley
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
On a hot day in August, President George W. Bush signed into law the Trade Act of 2002. Months of debate between the administration and members of Congress, their constituencies, and other governments were over; with the stroke of his pen President Bush became the first president in almost a decade to enjoy the benefits of trade promotion authority (TPA).
Topic:
Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

43. Environment's New Role in U.S. Trade Policy

Author:
John Audley
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Trade Act of 2002 integrates environmental policy priorities into U.S. trade negotiations. The manner in which resulting tensions between trade and environment are resolved requires greater involvement by Congress. Of particular short-term importance to Congress should be how bilateral negotiations with Chile and Singapore are concluded and regional negotiations with Central America begun. Congress should also use its oversight power to develop clearer instructions regarding a host of environmental policy issues, including investment and services negotiations, environmental reviews of trade agreements, and clarification of U.S. foreign assistance regarding technical assistance and capacity building for our trading partners. In short, TPA presents Congress with the leverage it needs to oversee trade negotiations, an opportunity to work with the administration and win back public support for U.S. trade policy that respects worker rights and protection of the environment.
Topic:
Environment, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and Chile

44. Foreign Direct Investment: Does the Rule of Law Matter?

Author:
John Hewko
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM within the international development community is that foreign direct investment (FDI) is an important component of economic growth and prosperity in transitional and developing countries and that a crucial, if not decisive, factor in enticing such investment is a stable, consistent, fair, and transparent legal and judicial system. As a recent World Bank publication concluded: The massive move by developing and transition countries toward market economies necessitated the adoption of strategies for the encouragement of private investment, domestic and foreign. Naturally, there was a general realization that such an objective could not be achieved without modifying and, sometimes, completely overhauling the legal and institutional framework and firmly establishing the rule of law, thereby creating the necessary climate of stability and predictability.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Government, and International Trade and Finance

45. Politics and Parallel Negotiations: Environment and Trade in the Western Hemisphere

Author:
John Audley and Edward Sherwin
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
IN DECEMBER 1994, at the behest of then–U.S. president Bill Clinton, the leaders of the 34 Western Hemisphere democracies convened in Miami for the first comprehensive hemispheric summit in more than 25 years. The assembled heads of state pledged that their countries would forge a path toward regional integration based on four overarching principles: Governments should build strong democratic institutions, prosperity should be promoted through free trade and economic cooperation, poverty and discrimination should be eliminated, and the natural environment should be preserved through policies promoting sustainable development. “Future generations,” Clinton said at the time, “will look back on the Miami summit as a moment when the course of history in the Americas changed for the better.”
Topic:
Environment and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, America, South America, Latin America, Central America, and North America

46. Pitfalls on the Road to Fiscal Decentralization

Author:
Vito Tanzi
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
IN PAST YEARS, the subject of fiscal decentralization interested mainly specialists—even though several countries, including the United States, came into existence through the political and economic integration of already existing political entities, such as states or principalities. Recently, however, fiscal decentralization has been attracting more general attention, largely because of pressures for greater fiscal decentralization in many countries around the world. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a range of issues related to fiscal decentralization, focusing in particular on possible alternatives to decentralization and various pitfalls that may be associated with it. Unlike much of the previous literature on the subject, therefore, this paper will pay less attention to the actual processes of decentralization and more on whether decentralization is the right direction for a country to choose.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States