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202. ISIS War Game II: The Escalation Challenge
- Author:
- Bilal Y. Saab and Michael S. Tyson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- In September 2014, Bilal Y. Saab, Resident Senior Fellow for Middle East Security at the Atlantic Council's Brent Scowcroft on International Security, and Michael S. Tyson, Marine Corps Senior Fellow at the Scowcroft Center, predicted in a simulation exercise (for results, see "ISIS War Game: The Coming Stalemate") conducted at the Scowcroft Center's Middle East Peace and Security Initiative that the most likely scenario was a military stalemate. They also realized that such a stalemate was not stable. Since the conclusion of the first war game, ISIS's regional attacks have increased in scope, lethality, and level of sophistication, as evidenced by its military and terrorist operations in Libya, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Lebanon.
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Egypt
203. To Vote or Not to Vote: Examining the Disenfranchised in Egypt's Political Landscape
- Author:
- Sarah Sirgany
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The postponement of parliamentary elections in Egypt, scheduled for March 2015, marked a setback in the country's democratic political process. Electoral politics are effectively on hold. Meanwhile, Muslim Brotherhood supporters have adopted a violent confrontational strategy toward the state, secular opposition parties are increasingly ineffectual, and voter fatigue remains a serious dilemma. In "To Vote or Not to Vote: Examining the Disenfranchised in Egypt's Political Landscape," the Atlantic Council's Sarah El Sirgany assesses the electoral environment in Egypt. She examines voter apathy, particularly the sort fueled by marginalization and disenfranchisement, and explains the deterioration of the Islamists' electoral gains and the rising trend within the Muslim Brotherhood of eschewing electoral participation in favor of violent confrontation. She also outlines the challenges that secular parties face.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Self Determination, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Egypt
204. Reviving Ukraine’s Private Sector: How US Leadership Can Yield Benefits
- Author:
- Robert Monyak
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Ukraine's economy is flagging. But a Ukrainian economy, integrated with the rest of Europe and by extension, the world economy, is essential for the country's political stability and its ability to withstand Russian aggression. While the international community is yet to develop a large-scale macro-economic assistance program on the order of the Marshall Plan, the US government can utilize existing programming through its development agencies to provide an immediate positive jolt to the private sector economy in Ukraine.
- Topic:
- Economics and Self Determination
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine
205. Human Rights Abuses in Russia-Occupied Crimea
- Author:
- Andrii Klymenko
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The “green men” who fanned out across Crimea in early 2014, establishing control over key infrastructure and clearing the way for once-marginal political actors to seize the reins of power, were the vanguard of a forced political change that has led to grave human rights abuses across the Crimean peninsula. Firmly in control of the executive and law enforcement bodies, the so-called Crimean authorities ostensibly implemented the law of the Russian Federation but in reality created a hybrid system where Russian law is subsidiary to the whims of “selfdefense forces” and “republican authorities.” Those forces derive their power from their weapons rather than from the support of the local population. In an environment where brute force rules the day, the international community has lost access to basic information about political, economic, and social developments on the Crimean peninsula. As a result, human rights abuses, now a regular part of life in Crimea, are left unreported or poorly understood. Freedom House and the Atlantic Council’s Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center are proud to present Andrii Klymenko’s report, Human Rights Abuses in Russian-Occupied Crimea. His work makes an important contribution to our understanding of what has happened in Crimea since the Kremlin forcibly seized the peninsula in February 2014, setting off a crisis that is transforming security calculations in Europe and Eurasia.
206. Empowering America: How Energy Abundance Can Strengthen US Global Leadership
- Author:
- Senator Lisa Murkowski, Senator Mark Warner, Bud Coote, and David L. Goldwyn
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Chairwoman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resource Committee, and Senator Mark Warner (D-VA), co-chaired the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center's US Energy Boom and National Security task force, which convened foreign policy, defense, and energy experts. The experts assessed how the United States can strengthen American leadership, advance international security, and promote global prosperity by leveraging necessary hydrocarbon export policies and deploying US prowess in energy innovation and technology to others. The task force report, Empowering America: How Energy Abundance Can Strengthen US Global Leadership, makes the case for a more robust energy strategy that capitalizes on US energy resources to advance our foreign policy and economic interests. It calls on US policymakers to repeal the crude oil export ban, ease the process of licensing for LNG exports, sustain research and investment in clean energy technology, support energy diplomacy and technical assistance abroad, advance North American energy integration efforts, and more. The report unequivocally concludes that, if properly utilized, American energy abundance will be an extremely valuable tool that favorably impacts global energy security, trade, and US foreign policy.
207. Cuba’s Economic Reintegration: Begin with the International Financial Institutions
- Author:
- Pavel Vidal and Scott Brown
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Cuba's Economic Reintegration: Begin with the International Financial Institutions is the first major policy publication on Cuba's role in the global economic community since the December announcement of new policies toward Cuba. The team of authors include Cuban economist Pavel Vidal and former Senior IMF Economist Scott Brown, a former mission chief for Albania. Beyond examining conditions in Cuba, the report also looks to the successful reintegration of previously isolated economies such as Vietnam and Albania as possible models for Cuba. It calls on the United States to put aside longstanding objections to Cuban membership to the IFIs and for Cuban authorities to re-evaluate why this may be the moment to take steps toward engaging the international organizations. Joining the IFIs could provide necessary technical assistance to transition the economy, spur economic growth, assist with infrastructure development, and improve the lives of everyday Cubans.
208. Hiding in Plain Sight: Putin's War in Ukraine
- Author:
- Maksymilian Czuperski, John Herbst, Eliot Higgins, Alina Polyakova, and Damon Wilson
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Russia is at war with Ukraine. Russian citizens and soldiers are fighting and dying in a war of their government's own making. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to deny Russian involvement in the fighting, but the evidence is overwhelming and indisputable. Drawing upon open source information, Hiding in Plain Sight: Putin's War in Ukraine provides irrefutable evidence of direct Russian military involvement in eastern Ukraine.
209. The Naval Alliance: Preparing NATO for a Maritime Century
- Author:
- Magnus Nordenman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- For more than a decade, NATO has been engaged in expeditionary ground-centric operations that have shaped the strategic thinking, capabilities, and planning of the Alliance and its members. But moving forward, NATO must also consider its role in the global maritime domain as it relates to transatlantic security and interests, as well as NATO operations. The maritime domain is increasingly competitive and contested, and the return of geopolitical competition has important maritime dimensions. Russian aggression to the east and Mediterranean turbulence to the south present unique maritime challenges for European security.
210. The Impact of Turkish Stream on European Energy Security and the Southern Gas Corridor
- Author:
- John Roberts
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Russia has proposed building a major new pipeline intended to carry gas to customers in both Turkey and the European Union. The project, dubbed Turkish Stream, is controversial for two interconnected reasons. Firstly, it is intended to help Gazprom fulfil its stated intention of terminating gas exports to Europe via Ukraine by the end of 2019. Secondly, it is far from clear that customers in the European Union would accept delivery of gas at Turkey's border with Greece in place of current deliveries to locations in Central Europe.
211. The New Containment: Changing America's Approach to Middle East Security
- Author:
- Bilal Y. Saab
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Securing the Middle East after an Iran nuclear deal is the next big challenge for both the region and the international community. The United States and its allies have engaged in tireless diplomacy with Iran over the past few years to produce an agreement that would limit Tehran's nuclear program for the next decade and a half. However, the hard work does not stop here; in fact, it may have just begun. To protect the deal (assuming one is finalized) and take full advantage of its potential benefits, which include the drastic reduction of the risk of nuclear weapons proliferating in the region, the United States needs a comprehensive strategy for regional security in the Middle East. A potential nuclear deal with Iran—as strategically significant as it is—is only one piece of the Middle East security puzzle
212. Technology Will Keep Changing Everything— and Will Do It Faster
- Author:
- Banning Garrett
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- It is impossible to predict what the accelerating pace of change in technology will lead to in the next twenty years. However, one can already foresee some potential geopolitical and societal impacts building on current technological developments, such as faster computers, wider and more advanced use of 3D and 4D printing, ubiquitous robotics, enhanced mobile computing with the individual at the center, widespread use of virtual and augmented reality, and creation of new designer organisms with biological building blocks. In this report, writer and independent consultant Banning Garrett lays out how these technologies are combining to create new, disruptive breakthroughs with potentially unforeseen second- and third-order effects that will alter the way we live forever.
213. Shaping the Asia-Pacific Future: Strengthening the Institutional Architecture for an Open, Rules-Based Economic Order
- Author:
- Olin Wethington and Robert A. Manning
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- A national debate is heating up about the rise of China and what it means for US national interests. The assumptions guiding US policy toward China under eight presidents, from Nixon to Obama, are being called into question. Is China seeking to overturn the existing order and displace the United States in the Asia-Pacific? Shaping the Asia-Pacific Future: Strengthening the Institutional Architecture for an Open, Rules-Based Economic Order, the first report by the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security's Project on Shaping the Asia-Pacific Future, addresses these questions. The authors—Olin Wethington, former Assistant Secretary of Treasury and Nonresident Fellow at the Scowcroft Center and Robert A. Manning, a Senior Fellow at the Scowcroft Center—assess financial, monetary, and trade trends in the region, and new challenges to the current order (such as China's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank). The report outlines a set of recommendations for US policy that can help bring about the creation of an open, rules-based, and inclusive Asia-Pacific economic structure to foster prosperity for the United States, China, and all economies of the region.
214. RENMINBI ASCENDING: How China's Currency Impacts Global Markets, Foreign Policy, and Transatlantic Financial Regulation
- Author:
- Chris Brummer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- A new report by the Atlantic Council, the City of London Corporation, Standard Chartered and Thomson Reuters launched today in Hong Kong, Asia, continues the highly respected Danger of Divergence series of publications examining transatlantic cooperation and takes us a crucial step closer to understanding the impact RMB internationalization will have on the global financial system and explains how different parts of the evolving Chinese financial infrastructure interact in a changing geostrategic context.
215. US-Brazil Relations: A New Beginning? How to Strengthen the Bilateral Agenda
- Author:
- Ricardo Sennes
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- A new Atlantic Council report launched today calls on the two Presidents to move beyond the usual working groups and outline an ambitious path forward. The Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center's report, titled US-Brazil Relations: A New Beginning? How to Strengthen the Bilateral Agenda, offers five recommendations: Support investment competiveness by implementing a double taxation agreement. Eliminate trade barriers starting with facilitating trade in services and opening the doors to greater collaborating on clean energy and technology trade. Prioritize collaboration on technology and innovation by incentivizing dual-use technologies and scientific cooperation. Bolster technology cooperation and new investments in education Define a cornerstone political agreement that serves as the bedrock of the relationship.
216. Prioritization in EU Energy Policy: Energy Security First, then Energy Union
- Author:
- Alan Riley
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The European Commission's "Energy Union" Communication, published on February 25, 2015, purports to provide the European Union (EU) with a comprehensive energy strategy. The Communication aims to simultaneously push forward the climate change agenda by deploying more renewables, while improving the level of energy efficiency, launching a major infrastructure program, and completing the energy single market. All of these objectives are necessary to establish a functioning, dynamic, liquid, and modern European energy market. The danger, however, is that the European Union's key energy security risk—the supply threat from the Russian Federation and in particular the risk related to the dominant natural gas supplier, the Kremlin-controlled energy giant Gazprom—is not prioritized amid the Communication's broader objectives. Currently, the significant supply risk falls upon a group of states in Central and Eastern Europe, the Baltic states, and Finland.
217. Through a New Prism: A Next Generation Strategy for the US-German Relationship
- Author:
- The Editors
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Twenty-five years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the US-German relationship faces new challenges. While official cooperation and interaction between Berlin and Washington continue to be robust on a wide range of issues, the German and American publics have grown less familiar with each other. Diminishing personal ties between the two peoples threaten to do lasting damage to bilateral relations and the transatlantic relationship, and younger Germans in particular are raising questions.
218. A Transatlantic Approach to Europe’s East: Relaunching the Eastern Partnership
- Author:
- Frances Burwell
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- On May 20-21, 2015, European leaders will gather for the Eastern Partnership summit in Riga, Latvia, to discuss the future of Europe's East. Given the extreme challenges faced by the countries of the Eastern Partnership (EaP) since the last summit, in Vilnius, Lithuania in 2013, and the cooling of EU relations with several of the Eastern Partners, the upcoming meeting will surely pose tough questions for the future of the entire eastern framework.
219. Harnessing Social Impact Investing
- Author:
- Gabriel Sanchez Zinny
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The solutions for socioeconomic development are no longer only in the public sector. Latin America has changed dramatically over the last decade, and the private sector can play an increasingly important role in the region's progress. That's where social impact investing comes in—a way that investors can make money while doing social good. The White House has appointed a social innovation czar and the Inter-American Development Bank is doing work every day in this expanding arena. Is social impact investing one of the keys that will finally unlock the region's intractable inequality?
220. NATO Transformation Seminar
- Author:
- Atlantic Council
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- NATO is confronting the most rapid negative change in its security environment since its founding, compelling Allies to refocus on collective defense in Europe and re-examine the relevance of NATO’s strategy. While this effort started in advance of NATO’s previous summit in Wales, the Alliance’s latest adaptation has only just begun. The crises of today combined with long-term trends require both urgency to NATO’s responses and a sustained commitment to its transformation. NATO’s July 2016 Warsaw Summit offers a compelling opportunity to significantly advance this adaptation.
221. Young Professionals Day 2015 Report
- Author:
- Atlantic Council
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The Atlantic Council, in partnership with NATO Allied Command Transformation (ACT), held the 4th annual Young Professionals Day (YP Day) in Washington, DC, on March 24. The event featured a full-day, outcome-oriented, strategic design thinking exercise with sixty young professionals representing twenty-four of NATO's twenty-eight member nations. Delegates collaborated to produce a list of creative solutions to pressing challenges NATO faces, ranging from how to address hybrid warfare and threats on NATO's southern flank, to how NATO can encourage innovation and deliver on the promises from the 2014 Wales Summit.
222. Dynamic Stability: US Strategy for a World in Transition
- Author:
- Barry Pavel, Peter Engelke, and Alex Ward
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- We have entered a new era in world history, a post-post-Cold War era that holds both great promise and great peril for the United States, its allies, and everyone else. We now can call this a "Westphalian-Plus" world, in which nation-states will have to engage on two distinct levels: dealing with other nation-states as before, and dealing with a vast array of important nonstate actors. This era calls for a new approach to national strategy called "dynamic stability."
223. Setting the Stage for Peace in Syria: The Case for a Syrian National Stabilization Force
- Author:
- Frederic C. Hof, Bassma Kodmani, and Jeffrey White
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- After four years of conflict in Syria, peace is still a distant prospect. The West insists that there is no "military solution," while Iran and Russia provide the Assad regime with a military advantage obstructing the possibility of real diplomatic negotiations. With over 220,000 Syrians dead and more than half of the Syrian population displaced, the need for peace is critical. In Setting the Stage for Peace in Syria: The Case for a Syrian National Stabilization Force, Frederic C. Hof of the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Bassma Kodmani of the Arab Reform Initiative, and Jeffrey White of the Washington Institute, present a new way forward—a sort of train-and-equip on steroids—the Syrian National Stabilization Force (SNSF).
224. Managing Differences on European Security in 2015
- Author:
- Russian International Affairs Council and the European Leadership Network Atlantic Council
- Publication Date:
- 03-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- This report is the result of a series of brainstorming sessions that took place between the summer of 2013 and the winter of 2014-2015, and between American, Russian, and European experts. The teams were led by Ellen Tauscher, the Vice Chair of the Atlantic Council's Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security and the former US Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, and Igor Ivanov, the president of Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and former Foreign Minister of Russia, in an effort to keep the dialogue open and frank at a challenging time for European security. Not surprisingly, as events in Ukraine unravelled the post-Cold War security order, it proved impossible to narrow the differences and develop a common, action-oriented approach to the challenge of rebuilding the European security order. The report, a project of the Atlantic Council, the European Leadership Network (ELN), and RIAC is focused instead on the necessary first step of listening to each other and reflecting on the significant differences in the Western and Russian approaches. Discussions focused on gaining clarity on the interests at stake, from the US, European, and Russian perspectives, in order to better define whether and where common interests may still lie and how best to advance them. The report clearly points to the fact that managing the differences in the aftermath of the Ukrainian crisis will continue to require significant efforts on the part of decision-makers, experts, officials, international organizations, and will take time and strategic patience.
225. Artful Balance: The Future of US Defense Strategy and Force Posture in the Gulf
- Author:
- Bilal Y. Saab and Barry Pavel
- Publication Date:
- 03-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- A strategic review of US defense strategy and force posture in the Gulf is long overdue. In Artful Balance: Future US Defense Strategy and Force Posture in the Gulf, Bilal Y. Saab, Resident Senior Fellow for Middle East Security at the Atlantic Council's Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, and Barry Pavel, Vice President and Director of the Scowcroft Center, analyze how historic changes and developing trends in Washington, the Middle East, and across the globe—along with Iran's nuclear ambitions and asymmetric threat—are all affecting US defense strategy in the Gulf.
226. The Healthcare Internet of Things: Rewards and Risks
- Author:
- Jason Healey, Neal Pollard, and Beau Woods
- Publication Date:
- 03-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The Internet of Things of digital, networked technology is quickly moving to the forefront of society, the global economy, and the human experience. Individuals wear networked devices to learn more about themselves, their diet, their exercise regimen, and their vital signs. Doctors can adjust and optimize implanted medical devices, such as pacemakers, quickly and accurately—and often with no need for intrusive medical procedures. The rewards of networked healthcare come with overlapping areas of concern that have to address to fully unlock the potential of these technologie
227. Breaking the Cyber-Sharing Logjam
- Author:
- Brent Scowcroft Center
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The Internet makes everyone neighbors in cyberspace, connected by a digital infrastructure that serves as the bedrock of their communities. But despite pockets of excellence, the neighborhood-watch system is broken. Not all kinds of sharing are equal, as many organizations involved in cyber defense are net consumers—not suppliers—of shareable cybersecurity information.
228. Afghanistan and US Security
- Author:
- Hon. James Cunningham
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- It is the core purpose of the Atlantic Council to foster bipartisan support for policies that promote the security of the United States and the transatlantic community. The signatories of this piece have either served in Afghanistan, been involved in the formation of US policy in government, or otherwise devoted considerable time to Afghan affairs. They have come together to register a broad, bipartisan consensus in support of certain principles that they believe should guide policy formation and decision-making on Afghanistan during the remainder of the Obama administration and the first year of a new administration, of whichever party. It is critical that the current administration prepare the path for the next. A new president will come into office facing a wave of instability in the Islamic world and the threat from violent extremism, which stretches from Asia through the Middle East to Africa. This will continue to pose a considerable challenge and danger to American interests abroad, and to the homeland. The signatories support the continued US engagement required to protect American interests and increase the possibilities for Afghan success.
229. Crude Oil for Natural Gas: Prospects for Iran-Saudi Reconciliation
- Author:
- Jean-Francois Seznec
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Despite the sectarian barbs traded between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Iran's unique ability to meet the kingdom's fast growing demand for electricity may help spur a reconciliation, according to the Atlantic Council's Jean-François Seznec. In his report Crude Oil for Natural Gas: Prospects for Iran-Saudi Reconciliation, Seznec argues that the two dominant energy producers do not necessarily need to see their energy production as competition. Saudi Arabia's currently fuels its stunning 8 percent annual rise in demand for electricity with precious crude oil due to little low cost domestic natural dry gas reserves. Iran's vast gas reserves could be used to meet the kingdom's growing needs, but after decades of punishing sanctions its dilapidated gas fields need an estimated $250 billion in repairs. If Saudi Arabia used its investment power or buying power to help revitalize Iran's gas industry, it would both secure the energy it needs to meet its citizens' demands and free up its crude oil for export. While the sectarian rhetoric hurled back and forth may seem unstoppable and the timeline for reconciliation may be long, Seznec contends that both sides are rational at heart and highlights that that the benefit of economic cooperation on energy issues could open up better relations on a range of issues.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Saudi Arabia
230. Tunisia: The Last Arab Spring Country
- Author:
- Mohsin Khan and Karim Merzan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet, a civil society group comprising the Tunisian General Labor Union; the Tunisian Union of Industry, Trade, and Handicrafts; the Tunisian Human Rights League; and the Tunisian Order of Lawyers the 2015 Nobel Peace Prize on Friday, October 9, 2015 "for its decisive contribution to the building of a pluralistic democracy in Tunisia." In a new Atlantic Council Issue Brief, "Tunisia: The Last Arab Spring Country," Atlantic Council Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East Senior Fellows Mohsin Khan and Karim Mezran survey the successes of Tunisia's consensus-based transition and the challenges that lie ahead. "The decision to award this year's Nobel Peace Prize to Tunisia's National Dialogue Quartet is an extremely important recognition of the efforts made by Tunisian civil society and Tunisia's political elite to reach a consensus on keeping the country firmly on the path to democratization and transition to a pluralist system," says Mezran. With the overthrow of the authoritarian regime of President Zine El Abedine Ben Ali in 2011, Tunisia embarked on a process of democratization widely regarded as an example for transitions in the region. The National Dialogue Conference facilitated by the Quartet helped Tunisia avert the risk of plunging into civil war and paved the way for a consensus agreement on Tunisia's new constitution, adopted in January 2014. In the brief, the authors warn that despite political successes, Tunisia is hampered by the absence of economic reforms. Facing the loss of tourism and investment following two terror attacks, Tunisia's economy risks collapse, endangering all of the painstaking political progress gained thus far. Unless the Tunisian government moves rapidly to turn the economy around, Tunisia risks unraveling its fragile transition.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, Economics, Political Activism, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Arab Countries and Tunisia
231. Foreign Policy for an Urban World: Global Governance and the Rise of Cities
- Author:
- Peter Engelke
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- In the latest FutureScape issue brief from the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security's Strategic Foresight Initiative, author Peter Engelke discusses the long-term economic, environmental, and policy implications of urbanization. Entitled "Foreign Policy for an Urban World: Global Governance and the Rise of Cities," the brief examines how urbanization is hastening the global diffusion of power and how cities themselves are increasingly important nodes of power in global politics.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, and Urbanization
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
232. Beyond Camp David: A Gradualist Strategy to Upgrade the US-Gulf Security Partnership
- Author:
- Bilal Y. Saab and Barry Pavel
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- President Barack Obama's summit meeting with Gulf leaders at Camp David on May 14 will end in failure if the administration does not propose a substantial upgrade in US-Gulf security relations that is as bold and strategically significant as the nuclear agreement–and likely formal deal–with Iran. While the summit will not suddenly eliminate mistrust and resolve all differences, it presents an historic opportunity to put back on track a decades-old US-Gulf partnership that has served both sides and the region well, yet lately has experienced deep turbulence. Failure to strengthen these ties will have consequences, the most dramatic of which could be the acceleration of the regional order's collapse. In a March 2015 Atlantic Council report entitled Artful Balance: Future US Defense Strategy and Force Posture in the Gulf, we made the case for a mutual defense treaty between the United States and willing Arab Gulf partners. In this issue in focus, we offer a more comprehensive and detailed assessment of the risks, concerns, benefits, and opportunities that would be inherent in such a treaty. We recommend a gradualist approach for significantly upgrading US-Gulf security relations that effectively reduces the risks and maximizes the benefits of more formal US security commitments to willing Arab Gulf states.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Persian Gulf
233. Ukraine: From Evolutionary to Revolutionary Reforms
- Author:
- Olan Bilen, Mike Duane, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Ilona Sologoub
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Since the Maidan revolution, the Ukrainian government has embarked on a comprehensive reform agenda. But almost two years since the revolution, reforms are still lacking in core areas. The most prominent achievements are the establishment of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau to fight high-level corruption, the introduction of a new police force in the cities of Kyiv, Odesa, and Lviv, the reform of the banking system, and the restructuring of the natural gas sector. However, there were few attempts to reform the civil service and businesses continue to claim that middle-and low-level employees at tax and customs agencies remain corrupt. The authors of "Ukraine: From Evolutionary to Revolutionary Reforms" warn that, if the Ukrainian government does not follow through with an ambitious reform agenda, public support for reforms will wane while dissatisfaction will increase, threatening political stability and the country's successful future. There is no time for slow evolutionary changes. Radical and revolutionary reforms are the only way to success.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Civil Society, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine
234. Nordic-Baltic Security and the US Role
- Author:
- Mark Seip
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The United States and the Nordic states enjoy a strong, productive relationship. However, stability in the Nordic-Baltic area is under increasing stress, which has implications for both NATO and its partner members, Finland and Sweden. In "Nordic-Baltic Security and the US Role," the Atlantic Council's US Navy Senior Fellow Mark Seip argues that the United States must prioritize bolstering assurance among NATO members, principally the Baltic states. Additionally, the United States and NATO should enhance its capabilities through collaboration, leverage soft power instruments, and find mutuality between NATO and its key partners, Finland and Sweden. In doing so, the United States and the Nordic nations stand to solidify the gains of the thriving region and strengthen European security.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Nordic Nations
235. Defeating the Jihadists in Syria: Competition before Confrontation
- Author:
- Faysal Itani
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Since August 2014, the US-led air campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has successfully inflicted casualties on ISIS and weakened its oil revenues. However, the same efforts have also accelerated the rise of the Nusra Front, an al-Qaeda affiliate, and the near-collapse of nationalist rebel forces. In "Defeating the Jihadists in Syria: Competition before Confrontation," Faysal Itani of the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East details the unintended consequences of the coalition air campaign and proposes a revised US strategy. He argues that the United States can effectively assist nationalist insurgents to defeat ISIS and the Nusra Front by enabling them to compete with and contain these groups before ultimately confronting them. Itani writes that the US-led campaign thus far and the train-and-equip initiative set to begin next month undermine and weaken nationalist rebel forces. He criticizes these efforts for failing to provide sufficient support to the rebel forces, while directing them to target ISIS instead of the regime. Meanwhile, the Nusra Front and other jihadist organizations have greater resources and have been effective in targeting the Assad regime. As such, nationalist rebel forces and local populations have increasingly aligned with the Nusra Front and even tolerate ISIS in order to protect themselves against regime violence, criminality, and chaos. Itani's proposed US strategy offers a practical and workable response to the rise of jihadists groups in Syria; this revised strategy seeks to support rebel forces to compete with the Nusra Front for popular support and to take control of the insurgency, contain ISIS, and build capacity for an eventual offensive against the jihadists. This approach will build on positive results in southern Syria by significantly increasing direct financial and material support and training for vetted nationalist groups that have already shown significant success. Simultaneously, in the north the campaign can provide sufficient material support to nationalist forces while expanding coalition air strikes to target ISIS's frontlines, allowing the nationalist insurgency to defend and govern territory. Only once nationalist insurgent forces have successfully competed with the Nusra Front and contained ISIS can they confront and ultimately defeat the jihadist groups in Syria.
- Topic:
- Politics, Terrorism, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Syria
236. Hiding in Plain Sight: Putin's War in Ukraine
- Author:
- Maksymilian Czuperski, John Herbst, Eliot Higgins, Alina Polyakova, and Damon Wilson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Russia is at war with Ukraine. Russian citizens and soldiers are fighting and dying in a war of their government's own making. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to deny Russian involvement in the fighting, but the evidence is overwhelming and indisputable. Drawing upon open source information, Hiding in Plain Sight: Putin's War in Ukraine provides irrefutable evidence of direct Russian military involvement in eastern Ukraine.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, War, Hegemony, and Self Determination
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine and Eastern Europe
237. A Post-Sanctions Iran and the Eurasian Energy Architecture
- Author:
- Micha'el Tanchum
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- With the removal of international sanctions on Iran, different markets will have a great interest in importing Iranian gas. But which market will benefit the most? In A Post-Sanctions Iran and the Eurasian Energy Architecture, Micha'el Tanchum, a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center and the Eurasian Energy Futures Initiative, argues that the lifting of the sanctions carries the potential to radically restructure the Eurasian energy architecture and, as a consequence, reshape Eurasian geopolitics. After Iran meets its domestic demand for natural gas, it will have the option to export gas to two of the following three markets: European Union/Turkey, India, or China. Iran will not have enough natural gas to supply all three of these major markets. The pattern of Iran's gas exports in the immediate post-sanctions period will shape the relationship between two competing orientations in the Eurasian energy architecture: a system of energy relationships reinforcing the EU's outreach to the Eastern Neighborhood alongside a system of energy relationships reinforcing China's OBOR integration project. A pivot to China will not be favorable to EU's and NATO's interests as it decreases Europe's energy security. By contrast, an expanded Southern Gas Corridor to Europe would promote the extension of Euro-Atlantic influence in Eurasia.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Eurasia
238. China's Evolving Role in Latin America: Can it Be a Win-Win?
- Author:
- Enrique Dussel Peters
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Weeks before Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with President Barack Obama in Washington, the Atlantic Council's Latin America Center launched a new report that unravels the complexities of the Latin America-China relationship. Titled China's Evolving Role in Latin America: Can it Be a Win-Win?, the report provides five recommendations to help both China and Latin America usher in a mutually beneficial post-commodity-boom relationship. The key to long-term success will be to insure that the relationship promotes—rather than delays—economic growth and social progress in the hemisphere. In the report, renowned Mexico-based China Expert Enrique Dussel Peters, an Atlantic Coucil author and Professor at the Graduate School of Economics at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), calls for a ratcheting up of strategic planning and multilateral support so the relation¬ship is a win-win for all parties, including the United States. A deep dive of the state of play is provided for five countries: Argentina, Brazil, Cuba, Mexico, and Venezuela. These countries illustrate the spectrum of ties with China, ranging from those with long and complex historical relation¬ships to those almost entirely structured around recent opportunities for economic cooperation.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- China and Latin America
239. NATO's New Strategy: Stability Generation
- Author:
- Franklin Kramer, Hans Binnendijk, and Daniel Hamilton
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The new threat landscape the transatlantic community faces means that NATO must adapt its strategy to remain relevant. While many transatlantic policymakers and thought leaders have called for a new strategy for NATO, few have outlined what that strategy should actually entail. This report proposes that NATO adopt a new strategy called "Stability Generation," built on the concept of ensuring stability in the NATO region and reducing the threat of significant conflicts in NATO's neighborhood. To accomplish this, NATO must add resilience as a core task to its existing tasks of collective defense, crisis management, and cooperative security. NATO must also enhance capabilities in the East against conventional and hybrid conflicts, in the South against instability arising from conflicts and extremism in neighboring countries, and across the Alliance to decrease vulnerabilities and enhance resilience, particularly with respect to cybersecurity.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
- Political Geography:
- North Atlantic
240. Risk Nexus: Overcome by cyber risks? Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- In 2030, will the Internet and related information and communications technologies (ICTs) continue to drive global innovation and prosperity? Or will that bright promise be swamped by an unstable and insecure Internet, so overwhelmed by non-stop attacks that it has become an increasing drag on economic growth? The answers, as far as we can predict, are not promising and mean the difference in tens of trillions of dollars in global economic growth over the next fifteen years.
- Topic:
- Economics, Science and Technology, Communications, and Cybersecurity
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
241. ISIS War Game III: The Final Phase
- Author:
- Bilal Y. Saab
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- September 2015 marked the one-year anniversary of President Barack Obama's speech outlining the administration's strategy to "degrade and ultimately destroy" the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). Yet, ISIS celebrated in June its own first-year anniversary of setting up a state by conducting three nearly simultaneous terrorist operations in three different countries—France, Tunisia, and Kuwait. Just this past month, ISIS also shocked the world with its attacks in Paris and Beirut and its downing of a Russian airliner in Egypt, killing more than 400 people combined and injuring hundreds more. While nobody expected the destruction of a resilient and agile foe such as ISIS within a couple of years, it is deeply troubling that the coalition is having such a hard time even disrupting its activities.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, War, Counterinsurgency, Fragile/Failed State, and ISIS
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
242. Renewable Energy’s Coming of Age: A Disruptive Technology?
- Author:
- Robert A. Manning
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The eyes of the world are on the United Nations Climate Conference, also known as COP21. Leaders from around the world are gathered in Paris in an effort to combat the effects of climate change. One of the best chances we have to mitigate these harmful effects are renewable technologies.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Industrial Policy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
243. Nordstream 2: Too Many Obstacles, Legal, Economic, and Political to be Delivered?
- Author:
- Alan Riley
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Germany may be seeking to expedite the construction of Russia's Nordstream 2 pipeline by shielding the controversial project from tough the laws of the European Union (EU), according to a transcript of talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Energy Minster Sigmar Gabriel, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow Alan Riley writes in "Nordstream 2: Too Many Obstacles, Legal, Economic, and Political to Be Delivered?".
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, International Law, International Trade and Finance, Natural Resources, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
244. A Blueprint for a Comprehensive US Counterterrorism Strategy in Yemen
- Author:
- Danya Greenfield and Barbara K. Bodine
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- With the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and the explosion of violent conflicts from Tripoli to Gaza, the Middle East is looking more unstable and unpredictable than ever. While the focus in Washington is centered on jihadist extremists in Iraq and Syria at present, the threat from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) against the United States continues. Top al-Qaeda leadership in Yemen is hailing the territorial gains of ISIS in Iraq, and some al-Qaeda operatives are imitating ISIS' techniques such as public slaughters of those deemed infidels, prompting fears of cooperation between two of the most active Islamist militant networks. Recent aggression by the Houthi movement, a Zaydi Shia rebel militia, against state institutions and tribal opponents has opened a new front of instability and security vacuum that AQAP is all too ready to exploit. Inattention to the interconnected nature of tribal conflict, terrorist activity, poor governance, economic grievances and citizen discontent is proving to be a dangerous combination for both Yemen and the United States. The Yemeni context may seem far from the current focus on Baghdad and Damascus, but getting the US strategy right in Yemen will have consequences for regional stability and core US interests throughout the Arabian Peninsula and beyond.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Economics, Terrorism, Foreign Aid, Labor Issues, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Arabia, and Syria
245. Reforming Tunisia's Troubled Security Sector
- Author:
- Bassem Bouguerra
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The December 2010 self-immolation of twenty-six-year-old itinerant fruit vendor Mohamed Bouazizi sparked popular protests in Tunisia that rippled throughout the Arab world. Like so many of Tunisia's youth, Bouazizi felt disenfranchised by the Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali regime. For over twenty-three years, a corrupt security apparatus allowed Ben Ali to rule the country with an iron fist. The public avoided criticizing the regime or even mentioning Ben Ali's name for fear of reprisal. During the Tunisian revolution, protesters demonstrated their anger at the security institutions that perpetuated the regime's hold on power by attacking police stations. With the fall of the regime, Tunisians began to publicly voice their opinions on previously forbidden issues such as politics, corruption, and police abuse.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Arabia and Tunisia
246. Do Drone Strikes in Yemen Undermine US Security Objectives?
- Author:
- Danya Greenfield and Stefanie A. Hausheer
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- In a May 2013 speech outlining his counterterrorism policy and addressing the use of drone strikes, President Barack Obama insisted that the United States uses the "highest standard" of criteria when selecting targets. The United States, the president said, only strikes "terrorists who pose a continuing and imminent threat to the American people...and before any strike is taken, there must be near-certainty that no civilians will be killed or injured." More than a year later, the administration seems to continue brazenly violating its own standards while also failing to fulfill its pledge to increase transparency and oversight with respect to the use of drone strikes. The administration has yet to explain how strikes such as the December 2013 attack on a wedding convoy in Yemen, which resulted in fourteen deaths and twenty-two injuries, could possibly fall within the guidelines laid out in the president's speech. US drone strikes in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and elsewhere raise similar questions.
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United States
247. Diplomacy for a Diffuse World
- Author:
- Peter Engelke, Roxanne Cabral, Katherine Brown, and Anne Terman Wedner
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Globalization, urbanization, and fragmentation are reshaping the world order by diffusing power throughout the global system. In order to remain relevant, American diplomacy will require a fundamental retooling that includes a more deliberate and serious engagement with novel forces and actors. America's leaders must recognize that these forces and actors not only are buffeting foreign nations but also are at work within the United States itself, strengthening the capabilities of American cities, communities, individuals, and networks to reach beyond US borders. Building a stronger partnership between the federal government's diplomatic community and these nonstate actors will enhance America's leadership and standing around the world.
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
248. ISIS War Game: The Coming Stalemate
- Author:
- Bilal Y. Saab and Michael S. Tyson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- On September 10, 2014, President Barack Obama delivered a speech outlining the administration's strategy to "degrade and ultimately destroy" the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, also known as ISIS. Achieving success requires four key elements, Obama said: a systematic campaign of airstrikes, increased support to allied forces fighting ISIS on the ground, robust counterterrorism to prevent ISIS attacks against the West including the US homeland, and continued provision of humanitarian assistance to innocent civilians. Airstrikes against ISIS targets in Iraq and recently in Syria have supported the first, third, and fourth elements of this strategy.
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iraq
249. Democratized Destruction: Global Security in the Hacker Era
- Author:
- James Hasik and Mark Revor
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The democratized innovations of today's hacker era have a dark side: democratized destruction, underwritten by advanced information technologies, and spread by highly empowered individuals with very undemocratic intent. The breadth, pace, diffusion, and potential for concealment of these advances may be creating new vulnerabilities for the same technologically advanced societies that spawned them. Fortunately, the United States and its allies have substantial experience with this mode of innovation and unique resources for developing countermeasures. In "Democratized Destruction: Global Security in the Hacker Era," Brent Scowcroft Center for International Security Nonresident Senior Fellow James Hasik and Lieutenant Colonel Mark Revor, a 2013-2014 Marine Corps fellow at the Atlantic Council, recommend three courses of action: leveraging capital investments with low marginal cost extensions; monitoring the global progress of open innovation; and supporting domestic grassroots developments in information-intensive systems.
250. NATO's Cyber Capabilities: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow
- Author:
- Jason Healey and Klara Tothova Jordan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- NATO's central missions of collective defense and cooperative security must be as effective in cyberspace as in the other domains of air, land, sea, and space.