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1. How concerning is Bolsonaro’s recent political and military shakeup?

Author:
Ryan C. Berg
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
urbulent politics and a deep shakeup in Brasilia have many concerned for the stability of Jair Bolsonaro’s administration. The stampede of ministerial exits started early this week with the resignation of foreign minister Ernesto Araújo. The defense minister followed suit shortly thereafter. By day’s end, six ministers had either resigned or moved to new posts — about one-third of Bolsonaro’s cabinet. Perhaps more concerning than the political overhaul was what transpired one day after the ministerial shakeup: the leadership restructuring within Brazil’s armed forces — occurring, no less, one day before the 57th anniversary of the military coup. The heads of all three major branches — the army, the navy, and the air force — resigned en masse, purportedly over concerns for their independence, handing Bolsonaro the opportunity to handpick their successors. Brazil witnessed something analogous only once before — in 1977, under the turbulent rule of military dictator Ernesto Geisel. This has left some Brazil watchers fretting that an insecure Bolsonaro could be laying the foundations “for his own January 6.”
Topic:
Politics, Military Affairs, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Populism, and Jair Bolsonaro
Political Geography:
Brazil and Latin America

2. A New Era in Mexico?

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Last July, Mexico underwent a medium-sized political earthquake—it elected Vicente Fox, candidate of an opposition alliance, to a six-year presidential term. In so doing, it ended seventy-one years of hegemonic rule by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and unleashed a host of possibilities for the nation’s future. What are those possibilities, and what do they mean—for Mexico and the United States? The truth is that nobody—not even veteran Mexico-watchers—is quite sure. Fox himself is a man of paradox: His relationship with his own party is ambiguous, to say the least, and the platform on which he ran points both left and right, as do his cabinet appointments. Moreover, Mexico itself, long in the thrall of a kind of benevolent authoritarianism, is new to the art of divided government. While there may be some changes in the relationship with the United States, tensions and conflicts based on history, geography, and the vast asymmetries of wealth are bound to persist.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Politics, Authoritarianism, and Elections
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

3. Peru: Yet Another Transition

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Last November Peruvian politics were turned upside down by the revelation that the president’s security chief had been bribing members of congress, other prominent political personalities, and the media. The “smoking gun” was a series of filmed videos actually recording the shady transactions, involving millions of dollars in one of Latin America’s poorest nations. Popular indignation was so great that the president, Alberto Fujimori, diverted a flight to the Asia-Pacific conference in Brunei and went to Tokyo instead, where he precipitously claimed Japanese citizenship and asked for political asylum. At home, one of the strongest political machines in Latin America was dismantled almost overnight. Congress deposed the president, named an interim chief executive and prime minister, and called for new elections on April 8. Thus ends an era in Peruvian politics, one rich in paradox and moral ambiguity. What, one wonders, is next?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Corruption, and Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America and Peru

4. Argentina Votes–but for What?

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
On Sunday, October 14, Argentines went to the polls to culminate what must surely have been the most ideological, hard-fought, and potentially decisive legislative election in their country’s history. At stake were all seventy-two seats in Argentina’s senate (chosen for the first time by popular vote[1]) and half of those in the Chamber of Deputies. What made the exercise particularly fraught with political significance was the fact that—coming as it did in the third year of a deep recession—the outcome was bound to be unfavorable to President Fernando de la Rúa, now midway through his four-year term. Given the parlous economic indicators—a near record 16 percent unemployment, laggard or negative economic growth for many months, drastic cuts in social spending with apparently more to come—the fact that the opposition Peronist Party won control of the senate and a plurality in the lower house can hardly be considered a surprise. But more serious still was the fact that, with few exceptions, candidates from the president’s own Radical Civic Union (and its coalition partner) ran against him with equal, if not greater, zeal. To the extent that the election was a plebiscite on de la Rúa’s stewardship, the vast majority voted “no.” What it voted for, however, is far from clear.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America