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40081. Managing Conflict after Civil War: The Power-Sharing and Power-Dividing Approaches

Author:
Matthew Hoddie
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper considers two institutional alternatives for managing conflict following the negotiated settlement of civil war. The most common set of institutional structures that former civil war combatants adopt are associated with power sharing. These power-sharing institutions may be constructed across the political, military, territorial, and economic dimensions of state power. Recent research suggests that post-civil war states that specify greater numbers of power-sharing institutions within their peace agreements tend to have a lower risk of the re-initiation of conflict. At the same time, critics of power sharing emphasize that these mechanisms lack a capacity to foster common identities among rivals and have characteristics that are inconsistent with the principles of democracy. An alternative to power sharing for states that are emerging from civil war is the adoption of power-dividing institutions. The core features of the power-dividing approach are limiting the scope of government authority and establishing a wide-ranging system of checks and balances intended to manage the competing interests within a country. In many respects, these institutional structures parallel those established by the constitution of the United States. Those who are sceptical about the power-dividing approach, however, point out that these institutions have not yet been adopted in any state emerging from civil war. It thus remains unclear how effective these structures would be at managing conflict within this particularly challenging environment.
Topic:
Civil War, Political Power Sharing, Democracy, Conflict, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Global Focus

40082. The Eurasian Economic Union: Breaking the pattern of post-Soviet integration?

Author:
Sean Roberts, Anaïs Marin, Arkady Moshes, and Katri Pynnöniemi
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Eurasian Economic Union between Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia consolidates a market of 170 million people with a combined GDP of almost 3 trillion US dollars. On paper, this union has the potential to transform economic relations in the region and to offer an alternative to the EU in the post-Soviet space. The Union, which comes into effect from January 2015, marks the latest achievement in the current ‘intensive phase’ of integration, which has seen the creation of a Eurasian Customs Union (2010), a Single Economic Space (2012) and a Eurasian Economic Commission (2012), all intended to facilitate the four economic freedoms – the free movement of goods, people, services and capital. Expanding the Union is also seen as a priority, with Armenia set to join the Customs Union and Kyrgyzstan already at an advanced stage of negotiation. However, despite early successes, further deepening and widening of the Union are fraught with difficulties and the pace of integration will inevitably slow, as member states come to terms with the commitments they have made. Plans to deepen the Union have encountered a number of implementation issues leading to multi-speed integration from the outset. Likewise, plans to expand the Union have revealed a creeping politicisation that threatens to undermine the ‘economic only’ nature of this integration project. More importantly, the latest phase of post-Soviet integration shows strong signs that the older problems of weak institutions and large asymmetry between member states are continuing to hinder closer ties. Taken together, and against the backdrop of an increasingly hostile international environment that has accompanied the crisis in Ukraine, the Eurasian Economic Union faces an uphill struggle to maintain momentum and deliver the results member states desire.
Topic:
European Union, Multilateralism, Economic Policy, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Russia and Eastern Europe

40083. Not Another Transnistria: How sustainable is separatism in Eastern Ukraine?

Author:
András Rácz
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The situation in Eastern Ukraine is often compared with that of Transnistria, the separatist region of Moldova. However, the two cases differ for a number of reasons, all of which will make the “Novorossiya” project much harder for Russia to sustain than Transnistria. First and foremost, unlike Transnistria, the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in their current shape will be unable to influence the everyday political and economic functioning of Ukraine. Vis-à-vis the rest of Ukraine, they are much smaller than Transnistria is in relation to Moldova. The main energy pipelines leading to Ukraine do not cross the separatist territories, and with the economic ties getting severed, the main instrumental function of a frozen conflict – namely to constantly influence and destabilize the target country – is likely to be lost. There are also several other factors, including: the lack of ethnic, national, linguistic or cultural background that would provide identity foundations for the Novorossiya project; the reliance of the separatists on the continuous, massive presence of the Russian military; the damage already inflicted on Russia’s international reputation; the effect on Russian domestic politics; the need for considerable financial assistance from Russia to the separatist territories; and the risk of increasing soft security challenges directly affecting Russia. In addition to all this, it cannot be guaranteed that the separatist elites will always be fully obedient to the will of Moscow. The a priori readiness to defend and support the action of the local authorities will limit Moscow’s room for maneouvre. Costly both politically and economically, the Novorossiya project is able to serve the Russian strategic objectives vis-à-vis the rest of Ukraine much less than Transnistria was able to do so vis-à-vis Moldova. Hence, one probable scenario is a further escalation of hostilities to expand the separatist-controlled territory, which may unfold relatively soon. However, in the medium term, the gradual restoration of Ukraine’s constitutional order in the territory should also be considered possible, within the framework of a larger international compromise and provided that reforms progress in Ukraine.
Topic:
European Union, Separatism, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

40084. Natural Resource Governance: An In-Depth Subfield Mapping and Analysis

Author:
Leila Kazemi
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Since its incipient stages in the early 2000s, the field of natural resource governance (NRG) has greatly evolved and expanded, with new actors, approaches and target issues proliferating in recent years. Focusing on a core group of organizations working on NRG, this brief maps and analyzes their work with an eye to identifying and detailing areas of overlap and potential synergy to inform programming, strategy and priorities moving forward. At the organizational level, it examines how and why organizations focus their work in particular ways, the tools and strategies they deploy, and their self-perceived comparative advantages. At field level, this brief investigates the perceived collective impacts of NRG efforts thus far, emerging priority areas, and gaps across work that has been done to date. Throughout, particular attention is given to how the Revenue Watch Institute carries out its work and is situated in the field.
Topic:
Corruption, Natural Resources, Governance, and Accountability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

40085. Natural Resource Charter (2nd ed.)

Author:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
The Natural Resource Charter is a set of principles to guide governments' and societies' use of natural resources so these economic opportunities result in maximum and sustained returns for a country's citizens. It outlines tools and policy options designed to avoid the mismanagement of diminishing natural riches, and ensure their ongoing benefits. The charter is organized around 12 core precepts offering guidance on key decisions governments face, beginning with whether to extract resources and ending with how generated revenue can produce maximum good for citizens. First launched in 2010 at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the charter was written by an independent group of practitioners and academics, under the governance of an oversight board composed of distinguished international figures with first-hand experience of the challenges faced by resource-rich countries. It relaunched at the 2014 Natural Resource Charter Conference in Oxford, England.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Resources, Business, Tax Systems, Mining, Revenue Management, and Licensing
Political Geography:
Global Focus

40086. Reforming National Oil Companies: Nine Recommendations

Author:
Patrick Heller, Paasha Mahdavi, and Johannes Schreuder
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Some national oil companies (NOCs) have contributed heavily to successful efforts to harness benefits from the oil sector and drive broader national development. In other cases, however, NOCs have become inefficient managers of national resources, obstacles to private investment, drains on public coffers, or sources of patronage and corruption. As such, NOC reform—incremental in some cases, fundamental in others—lies at or near the top of the policy agendas of many oil-rich countries. Building on existing literature, we surveyed 12 NOCs from diverse geographical and operational contexts to distill practical steps that policy-makers can take to make their countries' NOCs more effective and more accountable—to governments and to citizens. Our recommendations can be seen in both the executive summary and the full report.
Topic:
Oil, Transparency, Data, and State-Owned Enterprises
Political Geography:
Europe, Malaysia, Middle East, Kazakhstan, Norway, Asia, Kuwait, Brazil, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Latin America, Mexico, Nigeria, Angola, Ghana, Cameroon, and Sub-Saharan Africa

40087. Tanzania and Statoil: What Does the Leaked Agreement Mean for Citizens?

Author:
David Manley and Thomas Lassourd
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
The leak in July 2014 of an important addendum to a production sharing agreement (PSA) between Norwegian national oil company Statoil and the government of Tanzania has ignited a debate on whether Tanzania “got a good deal” from granting these extraction rights for a block now expected to produce large amounts of commercial natural gas. The debate demonstrates a public appetite for explanations from the government on the country’s management of its nascent oil and gas industry. Potentially at stake are billions of dollars of potential revenues that could boost socio-economic development in Tanzania if it becomes possible to extract these gas resources. An NRGI financial analysis suggests that the deal is not out of line with international standards for a country that had no proven offshore reserves of natural gas at the time when the original contract was signed. Thus claims that the addendum is on its face grossly unfair to Tanzania appear to be premature. The outgoing managing director of Tanzania’s national oil company TPDC gave an estimate of the government’s take of 61 percent, a figure that our own model determined to be plausible under a reasonable set of assumptions. There are some caveats to this result which we explain in the body of the main briefing.
Topic:
Corruption, Natural Resources, Tax Systems, Accountability, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:
Africa, Tanzania, and Sub-Saharan Africa

40088. EITI: A Parliamentary Tool for Extractive Sector Governance in Liberia and Yemen

Author:
Laury Haytayan, Luke Smitham, and Femke Brouwer
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Liberia in West Africa and Yemen in the Middle East hold vast reserves of oil and other natural resources. As participants of the Extractives Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), both states have voluntarily disclosed payments received from extractive companies in a standardized reporting process overseen by its own multi-stakeholder group (MSG). But unlike the majority of EITI participating countries, Liberia and Yemen have enlisted a key group of actors-parliamentarians-in their efforts to better govern resources and resource revenues. Lending credibility and capacity to the MSG, these political leaders have used their parliamentary mandate to improve policy and initiate reforms in the extractive sector, as well as facilitate EITI reporting and help oversee EITI compliance.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Resources, Governance, Transparency, and Extractive Industries
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Yemen, and Liberia

40089. Forecasting Ghana's Oil Revenues for the 2015 Budget Using a Fiscal Model of the Jubilee Field

Author:
David Mihalyi
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
In order to help Ghanaian MPs and the general public understand the potential impact of volatile petroleum prices on the implementation of the 2015 budget, we have built an oil revenue forecasting model. The tool uses only publicly available data and information. It is provided in Microsoft Excel (.xlsx), and released under an open licence so that it can be used by anyone. It can also be edited ,refined, and updated as events in Ghana and the world evolve. This modeling was only made possible due to the advanced state of oil sector disclosures in Ghana: contracts for the most important producing oil field (the Jubilee oil field) are published, the country is EITI compliant, national laws require transparency and regular reporting, and international oil companies such as Tullow and Kosmos disclose further key information.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Resources, Budget, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

40090. Public Transfers and Subsistence Producer Disincentives in Botswana

Author:
Tebogo B. Seleka and Khaufelo R. Lekobane
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
This paper investigates the disincentive effects of public transfers on subsistence producers in Botswana. Comparative statics analyses indicate that public transfers would not affect farm production when profit and utility maximization decisions are recursive, with the profit maximization decision made first. However, when such decisions are interdependent, public transfers would lead to a reduction in farm output. Empirical results reveal that social pensions have impacted positively on cultivated area, but have had no impact on cereal yields and output. However, government food rations have impacted adversely on cultivated area, yields and output; they are a disincentive to crop production because they are relatively more sizable, consistent and certain. This, it is argued, is because food packages are directly substitutable for subsistence crop production. Therefore, public policy in Botswana should consider moving away from food to cash transfers to minimize such disincentive effects.
Topic:
Agriculture, Welfare, Safety Net, Work, and Public Transfers
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana