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35511. TSG IntelBrief: Ukraine at a Crossroads

Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
It has been 348 days since Russia moved into Crimea, kicking off an increasingly serious threat not just to the Ukrainian people but to wider European stability In the nearly one year since the armed fighting began, Russian President Vladimir Putin has pushed aside assumed psychological barriers of behavior that the EU and NATO had hoped would bolster their decreased military deterrent towards armed aggression A meeting this Wednesday between Russia and its armed proxy Ukrainian separatists, Germany, France, and Ukraine shows how serious the crisis has become, with real concerns as to what happens when talks can\'t stop the shooting Russia will insist any agreement make official the rebel gains of the last year, which would then mark the second time European borders have been remade by force in this conflict, since Russia has demonstrated it will escalate more so than the EU or NATO.
Topic:
NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

35512. Labour Mobility in Europe: An untapped resource?

Author:
Matthias Busse, Mikkel Barslund, and Joscha Schwarzwälder
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The right of free movement of persons is a cornerstone of the European Union and, according to a Eurobarometer survey, one of the most popular accomplishments of the EU. Since its establishment this right has been steadily built upon and expanded, in particular with respect to mobile EU workers. Barriers to (labour) mobility have been substantially reduced as part of creating the single market and also as a means to achieve the EU2020 goals of smart and inclusive growth. And yet the prevailing view in academic circles and among policy-makers is that intra-EU labour mobility is too low; too low to support the single labour market as anything but a notion and too low to play anything other than a modest role in helping to rebalance the eurozone after the crisis.
Political Geography:
Europe

35513. The ECB's QE: Time to break the doom loop between banks and their governments

Author:
Willem Pieter De Groen
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The recent crises have shown that the eurozone countries' government debt is not immune to default. Applying a large-exposure requirement also to eurozone government debt would be a logical measure towards breaking the bank-government doom loop, given the low probability and high loss-given government default. But what would be the impact of the application of the large-exposure requirement on the banking sector as well as on government funding? This CEPS Policy Brief presents the results of a simulation exercise performed for 109 systemic banks in the eurozone, showing that their eurozone government debt portfolios would have to decrease by 3.2% or €63 billion, if a 50% of own-funds cap would be applied on large exposures. The eurozone central banks' demand for sovereign bonds under the extended asset purchase programme further creates momentum to start gradually implementing the restriction.

35514. Sudan: The Prospects for "National Dialogue"

Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Prospects for an inclusive national dialogue President Omar al-Bashir promised in January 2014 are fading, making a soft-landing end to Sudan's crises more doubtful. Sceptics who warned that the ruling party was unwilling and unable to make needed concessions have been vindicated. Peacemaking in Darfur and the Two Areas (Blue Nile and South Kordofan) and potential merging of these negotiations with the national dialogue were dealt a blow with suspension of African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP)-mediated “parallel” talks in Addis Ababa in December. A separate German-backed initiative has elicited a more unified and constructive approach from the armed and unarmed opposition, but no breakthrough yet. The government still holds many cards – including formidable means of coercion – and has little sympathy for the increasingly unified demand of the armed and political opposition for a really inclusive process and true power sharing. Unless both sides give ground, a continuation of intense war and humanitarian crises is inevitable.
Political Geography:
Sudan

35515. Leveraging Local Knowledge for Peacebuilding and Statebuilding in Africa

Author:
Andrea Ó Súilleabháin
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The call for national and local ownership of peacebuilding and statebuilding design and practice has grown louder in recent years. The principles of leveraging local knowledge and attending to local context have gained increasing prominence and visibility in international policy. Standards of field practice for international nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and peacebuilding missions now regularly include consultation of local perspectives and engagement of local actors. But regional, national, and community-level knowledge have not found effective channels to influence and inform the international decision-making process. Translating these principles into practice—in terms of peacebuilding and statebuilding mechanisms, processes, and programs on the ground—is an enduring challenge for the United Nations and international actors.
Topic:
Government and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa

35516. The mighty metropolis

Author:
Mathieu Lefevre
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Sometime in the middle of 2009, the number of people living in cities exceeded the world's rural population for the first time in history. By 2050, some 70 per cent of the world's population will live on only 3 per cent of the earth's surface – in cities. These conurbations are becoming global economic and geo-political players to be reckoned with. This will radically affect the way we live, work and plan for the future.

35517. EU Governance: Struggle Between Cooperation and Competition

Author:
N. Nevra Esentürk
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations
Institution:
Center for International Conflict Resolution at Yalova University
Abstract:
EU governance is characterized as a multi-level system in which various actors are involved in the policy-making procedure at multiple levels in a non-hierarchical way. During the course of the European integration process, EU governance has been brought forward as a response to the citizens' quest for a legitimacy through enhanced democratization in the decision-making mechanisms and as a tool that would increase the leverage and competitiveness of the EU to have an efficient way of functioning for the enlargement of the Union. In that respect, the legitimacy and the representative power of the EU and its institutions are put under scrutiny, as powerful and at the same time efficient decision-making mechanisms are necessary for the EU. However, although significant changes are enshrined in the Lisbon Treaty regarding the decision-making procedure and policy outcomes, it has been limited with struggle between cooperation and competition at vertical and horizontal levels under the shadow of supranational hierarchy that has created mistrust on the EU institutions and decision-making structures from the perspective of citizens. The article addresses this issue on the grounds of the reasons and the circumstances in which EU governance emerged, the principles and characteristics it is based on, the means and ways it utilizes, and the effects on the decisionmaking process of the EU.
Political Geography:
Europe and Lisbon

35518. Looking Within and Without: The Path to Tread by Muslims

Author:
Shamsul Khan and Mahjabeen Ahmad
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations
Institution:
Center for International Conflict Resolution at Yalova University
Abstract:
There is no doubt that relation between the Muslim world and the West is often dominated by simmering distrust and antagonistic feelings although they may not always boil over. Tensions and recriminations abound and so do arguments and justifications. The need to find common grounds do not get translated into intentions or sincere efforts to move forward as the past casts a long shadow over the present. Typecasting a billion-plus fellow human beings or their faith as objects of dread or hatred as is being done by the West through fomenting Islamophobia needs to be prevented. Muslims must be able to reassert their true identity and earn their rightful place in a world dominated by Western power and influence. This may begin to happen if Muslims denounce and repudiate all the wrong that is being done in the name of their great religion, speak for themselves, develop religious and community leaders who are well equipped to impart the right knowledge and effectively address contemporary issues that confront Muslim societies and countries, and revive the spirit and unity of the ummah. Only then can they effectively fight not just the menace of Islamophobia, but also the injustices and discrimination in their own countries and those that are perpetrated by the West. The West must also turn their gaze inward and admit their role in creating this 'Great Divide'; they need to realize that their overbearing attitude toward Muslims and relentless depiction of the latter as their common folk devil will inevitably have undesirable, serious, and long-term consequences.

35519. Sustainable Democracy and the Paradox of the Arab Spring: The Egypt Experience

Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations
Institution:
Center for International Conflict Resolution at Yalova University
Abstract:
<p>The Arab spring began with an uprising in Tunisia and subsequently spread to Egypt, Bahrain, Morocco, Libya, Yemen and Syria. The protest has been referred to as the Arab spring and for others the Arab democratic revolution. Despite the substantial variants of the revolt it explains a component of a great collective shift from long tenure and authoritarian rule. The aftermath of the transition from authoritarianism to democracy should have been the establishment of independent democratic structures. This is the only way that a sustainable democracy can be guaranteed. This is where such factors as religion (Islam), monarchies, military and fundamentalism, come to be a crucial factor in analysing and assessing the success or failure of the Arab democratic revolution. This paper is of the opinion that a sustainable democracy within the Arab world cannot be guaranteed, in view of the above contesting variables for political/state power and influence. Each of these variables is not only anti democratic but present a contradiction in democracy. Egypt experience is instructive. What is thus needed is a frame work to manage and structure these diversities toward providing sustainable democratic political institutions that are in consonance with democratic tenets without radically changing the norms, values and nuances of the Arab society</p>

35520. Rethinking the Conflict- Proneness of Oil-Rentiers State in Historical Context

Author:
Muhammed Kürsad Özekin and Zeynep Arıöz
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations
Institution:
Center for International Conflict Resolution at Yalova University
Abstract:
With the rise of intra-state conflicts in the Middle East, particularly in the last two decades, the causality relationship between oil wealth and political stability has become a matter of debate in the literature. However, despite the proliferating research interest, the impact of oil revenues on regime stability and civil conflicts still remains contested in both theoretical and empirical terms. Bearing this limitation in mind, this article aims to present a fairly general but analytically broadened framework to explain the relationship between the decline of the oil-rentier states, and the rise of intra-state conflicts experienced in the Middle East in the past two decades. Putting matter into the historical context of the state formation and the colonial legacy in the Middle East this study presents a slightly different reading of the causality relation between oil revenue and the conflict-proneness of rentier states. Thus this article, to a certain extent, moves beyond the conventional explanations of the rentier state theory and argues that oil revenue cannot be taken as an explanatory variable of conflicts per se.
Political Geography:
Middle East