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4602. Thought for Food: The Challenges of Coping with Soaring Food Prices
- Author:
- Nora Lustig
- Publication Date:
- 11-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- World food commodities prices increased 130 percent from January 2002 to July 2008. Individual agricultural commodities show even more pronounced increases: corn, wheat, rice and soybeans rose by 190, 162, 318 and 246 percent, respectively. Since July, food commodities prices began to fall. While this decline comes as a relief, prices are likely to stay high in the foreseeable future. Available evidence suggests that the decline in living standards of net consumers caused by higher food prices outweighs the benefits accruing to poor net sellers in the majority of countries that have been analyzed so far. The time to implement measures to help the poor net consumers cope with higher food prices is now. However, too many developing countries lack the instruments, administrative capacity and fiscal space to implement safety nets fast enough and in the required scale. This is one of the most pressing policy challenges that we face. For the poor who are net sellers, governments should seize the opportunity to convert the short-run windfall into longer-term gains. Multilateral financial institutions can play a key role in providing financial resources to countries facing negative terms of trade shocks, technical assistance in the design of safety nets and resources to add fiscal space to countries to fund safety net programs. International organizations can also help countries design the appropriate macroeconomic policy response. This will call for greater flexibility in the menu of policy options traditionally deployed by the Bretton Woods institutions.
- Topic:
- Security, Agriculture, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Poverty
4603. The Coming Oil Supply Crunch
- Author:
- Paul Stevens
- Publication Date:
- 08-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- This report argues that unless there is a collapse in oil demand within the next five to ten years, there will be serious oil 'supply crunch'–not because of below-ground resource constraints but because of inadequate investment by international oil companies (IOCs) and national oil companies (NOCs). An oil supply crunch is where excess crude producing capacity falls to low levels and is followed by a crude 'outage' leading to a price spike. If this happens then the resulting price spike will carry serious policy implications with long-lasting effects on the global energy picture.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Energy Policy, Markets, and International Security
4604. Piracy in Somalia: Threatening Global Trade, Feeding Local Wars
- Author:
- Roger Middleton
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Piracy off the coast of Somalia has more than doubled in 2008; so far over 60 ships have been attacked. Pirates are regularly demanding and receiving million-dollar ransom payments and are becoming more aggressive and assertive. The international community must be aware of the danger that Somali pirates could become agents of international terrorist networks. Already money from ransoms is helping to pay for the war in Somalia, including funds to the US terror-listed Al-Shabaab. The high level of piracy is making aid deliveries to drought-stricken Somalia ever more difficult and costly. The World Food Programme has already been forced to temporarily suspend food deliveries. Canada is now escorting WFP deliveries but there are no plans in place to replace their escort when it finishes later this year. The danger and cost of piracy (insurance premiums for the Gulf of Aden have increased tenfold) mean that shipping could be forced to avoid the Gulf of Aden/Suez Canal and divert around the Cape of Good Hope. This would add considerably to the costs of manufactured goods and oil from Asia and the Middle East. At a time of high inflationary pressures, this should be of grave concern. Piracy could cause a major environmental disaster in the Gulf of Aden if a tanker is sunk or run aground or set on fire. The use of ever more powerful weaponry makes this increasingly likely. There are a number of options for the international community but ignoring the problem is not one of them. It must ensure that WFP deliveries are protected and that gaps in supply do not occur.
- Topic:
- Security, Crime, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
4605. The Nordic Path of Spain's Mediterranean Welfare
- Author:
- Luis Moreno
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Despite the fact that the Nordic welfare model has become less exceptional in recent times, it continues to offer numerous examples for “best practices” in social policy provision, together with a high degree of welfare political legitimacy. This paper explores Nordic “benchmarking” as reference to the case of welfare development in Spain. In the general process of convergence of the European welfare states towards the middle, the Spanish case stands out as the one Mediterranean EU country which has gone further in incorporating inputs and traits of the social-democratic Nordic world of welfare capitalism. While Spain's welfare state has become more liberal in macroeconomic policies, and social policymaking has followed a pattern of universalization of welfare entitlements and provision, there has been a detachment from the Bismarckian principle of income maintenance. This paper deals with Spain's evolution in two main areas, which have distinctively characterized Nordic welfare in contemporary times: fiscal resources, and female employment. The analytical purpose of the first section is to ponder the claim as to whether or not Spanish welfare has intensified a socioeconomic path in the direction of the Nordic model. Subsequently, Spain's societal changes and welfare reforms are reviewed with relation to the two areas identified as having the greatest impact in the future evolution of Spain's welfare: conciliation of work and family life, and the territorial politics of welfare provision. Concluding remarks speculate on the hypothesis that countries with fragmented political institutions and a decentralized state organization, such as Spain, may move faster and be more responsive in the development of new welfare Polices. Likewise, the emergence of gender and family issues into the political arena is also regarded as generating pressure for major changes in Spain's Mediterranean welfare, and possibly intensifying its Nordic path or component.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Markets, Migration, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Spain
4606. A Hamas Perspective on the Movement's Evolving Role: An Interview with Khalid Mishal, Part II
- Author:
- Mouin Rabbani
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Palestine Studies
- Institution:
- Institute for Palestine Studies
- Abstract:
- In this second installment of his interview for JPS, Khalid Mishal, Hamas politburo chief since 1996 and head of the movement since the assassination of Shaykh Ahmad Yasin in 2004, continues his discussion of Hamas's evolution and strategy. Whereas the focus of part I was Mishal's personal background, political formation, and the founding of the movement, here Hamas's more recent history is foregrounded. From the unfolding conflict and troubled relations with Fatah since the mid-1990s, Mishal recounts the thinking behind the decision formally to integrate into the Palestinian political system born of Oslo by participating the 2006 legislative elections and joining the Palestinian Authority government. He also delves into the ongoing repercussions of these decisions, including the splits within the Palestinian movement culminating in Hamas's seizure of power in the Gaza Strip in June 2007. In the course of the more than three-hour interview, Mishal's straightforward manner is on display, as well as his willingness to be challenged on matters as sensitive as Hamas's suicide bombings and the targeting of Israeli civilians, the utility of armed resistance, and the morality of the struggle. Two themes underlying the interview were Mishal's preoccupation with the need to repair the intra-Palestinian split ("our greatest priority") and the devastating impact of the ongoing siege of the Gaza. Since our interview in early March 2008, two potentially significant developments with relevance to these concerns have taken place. On the internal Palestinian front, Mishal repeatedly emphasized the need for intra-Palestinian dialogue without preconditions, with all subjects on the table including controversial topics like early elections. A first step toward reconciliation was made on 24 March 2008, when Hamas and Fatah representatives signed the "Sana'a Declaration," negotiated in the Yemeni capital, which outlined points of consensus on various domestic issues including security and political institutions. Though the declaration quickly ran aground, with Fatah demanding that Hamas immediately cede control of Gaza before implementation of other aspects would be discussed, by June 2008, Hamas and Fatah were once again considering national unity talks on the basis of the Yemeni initiative. As for alleviating the extreme external pressures on the Hamas-led Gaza Strip, indirect negotiations between Hamas and Israel mediated by Egypt produced a bilateral cease-fire that went into effect on 18 June. Though initially confined to Gaza, the understandings also call for a gradual reversal of the siege as well as renewed negotiations on a prisoner exchange, including the release of captured IDF soldier Gilad Shalit. Hovering over both Hamas-Israel and Hamas-Fatah relations is Washington, which remains opposed to any deals through which the Palestinian Islamists can emerge from their enforced isolation. Yet whatever the ultimate success of either development, the reality is that Mishal and Hamas are increasingly central players in the intra-Palestinian, Israeli-Palestinian, and broader regional equations. Indeed, itwas Mishal, not Abbas, whose movement reached an agreement with Israel before the expiration of the Bush administration.
- Topic:
- Security and Government
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt
4607. International A1. John Holmes, UN Undersecretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, Briefing to the Security Council on the Situation in the Middle East, Geneva, 26 February 2008 (excerpts)
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Palestine Studies
- Institution:
- Institute for Palestine Studies
- Abstract:
- InternationalA1. John Holmes, UN Undersecretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, Briefing to the Security Council on the Situation in the Middle East, Geneva, 26 February 2008 (excerpts)Journal of Palestine Studies, Vol. 37, no. 4 (Summer 2008), p. 159Documents and Source Material John Holmes's briefing emphasizes the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza resulting from Israeli restrictions on the movement of people and goods. Holmes was appointed Undersecretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs in January 2007 by UN Secy.-Gen. Ban Kimoon. The full text is available online at www.ochaonline.un.org.
- Topic:
- Security, Humanitarian Aid, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Geneva and Middle East
4608. C3. Public Committee Against Torture in Israel (PCATI), "'Family Matters': Using Family Members to Pressure Detainees under GSS Interrogation," Jerusalem, 13 April 2008 (excerpts)
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Palestine Studies
- Institution:
- Institute for Palestine Studies
- Abstract:
- On 13 April, the Israeli human rights organization Public Committee against Torture in Israel (PCATI) released an extensive report, excerpted below, detailing the Israeli Security Agency's (Shin Bet) use of abuse and threats against detainees' family members in order to extract confessions. PCATI's report also reveals that despite the Israeli High Court ruling against the use of torture in 1999, both physical and psychological torture, assisted by physicians, continues. The report concludes with recommendations concerning both legislation and the supervision of the General Security Services (GSS) that will contribute to preventing the use of this deplorable method. One of six cases presented in the report is excerpted below. The full report is available online at www.stoptorture.org.il.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- Israel
4609. Sons of Iraq and Awakening Forces
- Author:
- Farook Ahmed
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- The United States' Joint Campaign Plan for Iraq has laid out a goal to achieve security in Baghdad and other critical parts of Iraq by the summer of 2008 and then extend a self-sustaining security environment to the rest of the country by the summer of 2009. To that end, the United States surged its combat troops and changed to a counter-insurgency strategy that focused on providing population security. This coincided with an opportunity provided by the discontent Iraq's Sunni Arab population felt towards al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) militants and their draconian rule. The United States took advantage of the situation by striking political deals with the disaffected local populations, most of whom are Sunni Arab.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Arabia
4610. Iraq Situation Report
- Author:
- Kimberly Kagan, Marisa Cochrane, Eric Hamilton, Farook Ahmed, Andrea So, and Wesley Morgan
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Operations by Coalition and Iraqi Forces throughout 2007 have transformed the security situation in Iraq. Violence decreased dramatically in the second half of 2007. The number of enemy attacks in Iraq, the number of attacks against Iraqi civilians, and the number of murders in Baghdad, dropped to levels last seen in early 2006. The mission shift to an aggressive counterinsurgency strategy, with an emphasis on population security, which occurred in January 2007, solidified these gains more quickly than many had predicted. Unexpected developments, like the emergence of Awakening movements and the unilateral Sadrist ceasefire, further helped to accelerate the ground level improvements in security. By late 2007, Al-Qaeda in Iraq had been defeated in Anbar, and its network and safe havens in Baghdad and the belts were largely disrupted. Al-Qaeda in Iraq has been steadily pushed north, into isolated pockets, often far from population centers. Coalition Forces have also aggressively targeted Shi'a militia extremists and Iranian-backed Special Groups, with encouraging results.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Iraq