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15901. Iran's successful transnational network: Iranian foreign policy utilizes partners

Author:
Maria-Louise Clausen
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In Western and Middle Eastern capitals there is growing concern over the growth of Iran’s transnational network. In the last decade, Iran has exploited the weaknesses of other states to expand its influence through relationships with state and non-state actors in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, but what characterizes this network? Key take-aways: The group of state and non-state actors referred to as proxies of Iran is diverse, and important nuances are lost by approaching them all solely as proxies. Whereas sectarian affinity plays a role, Iran’s ability to portray itself as anti-imperialist and as fighting oppression transcends sectarian boundaries. Iran’s transnational network is multifaceted, pragmatic and diverse, as each relationship reflects each member’s capabilities, history and importance to Iran.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Sectarianism, Conflict, and Proxy War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and United States of America

15902. Chinese influence in the Baltic? Unconvincing, yet lacking an alternative

Author:
Jessica Larsen
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Brussels is waking up to an assertive Beijing that is seeking influence in EU member states by promising massive foreign investments. In the Baltic states, however, Chinese business is not the problem. An explainer. KEY FINDINGS: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania experience gaps in transportation, energy and digitalisation – Chinese core expertise – and China is offering them its business. However, China is sending mixed signals: apart from economic overtures, it is interfering in domestic politics and cooperating militarily with Baltic arch-enemy Russia – alienating Baltic democracies. As EU attention is tilting ‘outwards’ to China, Denmark and the EU should use this moment to direct attention ‘inwards’ by being the ones delivering on Baltic states’ needs.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Economy, Investment, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
China, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, and Baltic States

15903. Climate change and peace in international operations: Ways forward for Denmark’s Ministry of Defence

Author:
Jessica Larsen and Mikkel Funder
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Climate change is increasingly being raised as a security concern. How should Denmark’s Ministry of Defence approach the issue in its international operations and collaboration, and what are other security actors doing? RECOMMENDATIONS: Denmark’s Ministry of Defence should: Draw up a clear and demarcated mandate for the Danish armed services’ climate role in international operations in close collaboration with civilian actors. Team up with like-minded international partners to develop joint approaches under already existing multilateral frameworks. Identify specific tasks where the armed forces can contribute on the ground, such as disaster support, capacity development and alignment with civilian actors in the field of Environmental Peacebuilding.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Climate Change, Armed Forces, and Peace
Political Geography:
Denmark and Global Focus

15904. Don’t be rude, don’t be docile! How to manage freedom of manoeuvre in tense bilateral diplomacy

Author:
Hans Mouritzen
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Bilateral diplomacy has become increasingly important in today’s multipolar world. A number of cases are analysed in this DIIS Working Paper, where Nordic countries have been ‘disciplined’ in bilateral diplomacy by the emerging great powers of Russia, China, or India. Compared to the immediate aftermath of the Cold War, with US unipolarity and EU normative power, the Nordics have experienced a narrowing of their freedom of manoeuvre. It is no longer possible, without significant costs, to criticise these great powers’ internal affairs or foreign policies based on allegedly universal values. In general, it is crucial for decision-makers not to overstep their state’s freedom of manoeuvre. But on the other hand, they should not be too docile and desist from occasionally challenging its limits. Trial balloons or parallel action with related countries might do exactly that.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Power Politics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, and United States of America

15905. The praxis of combating VAW in Ethiopia: A political interpretation

Author:
Dereje Feyissa
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Violence against Women (VAW) is among the human rights violations that women face globally every day. The roots of VAW lie in historically unequal power relations between men and women and pervasive discrimination against women in both the public and private spheres. VAW is a global phenomenon that is not limited to certain cultures or countries. However, the form it takes is context-specific. In Ethiopia VAW is pervasive, occurring at three levels as identified by the UN: family; community; and the state. Despite policy pronouncements and the implementation of some practical measures, VAW is still prevalent in Ethiopia. This new Working Paper by Dereje Feyissa, adjunct associate professor, Addis Ababa University, offers a political interpretation to explain the gap between policy and practice on VAW in Ethiopia. Specifically, it argues that the gap between policy and practice lies in the type of regime in Ethiopia, which has undermined the political will and limited the space for gender activism. Historically, this has been evident ideologically (the Marxist frame of the ‘women question’ and the vanguardism connected with it), but also in respect to political legitimacy (ethnic federalism and the priority given to cultural rights), entrenched authoritarianism and the limited space available for gender activism by women’s right groups. The Working Paper is published as part of the international research programme GLOW – Global Norms and Violence Against Women in Ethiopia – financed by the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, International Organization, Poverty, Women, Inequality, and Gender Based Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

15906. Internally displaced people in Mali's capital city: When a crisis turns chronic

Author:
Boukary Sangaré and Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
As world attention focuses on Central Mali’s conflict hot spots, more than 50,000 of the country’s 311,193 internally displaced persons (IDPs) have fled to Mali’s southern cities, including the capital Bamako. The inhuman conditions in the informal IDP camps manifest an overall failure to protect civilians despite the presence of more than 25,000 foreign soldiers, 13,000 of whom are UN peace keepers. To support peacekeeping efforts, long-term development investment must be complemented with short-term assistance to provide protection, food and shelter to Mali’s most vulnerable victims of war. RECOMMENDATIONS: Mali needs to develop and implement a national strategy that respects the rights of internally displaced persons (IDPs) to make free, informed and voluntary choices of settlement. Long-term development assistance must be complemented with flexible, immediate and short-term assistance to the most vulnerable IDPs. Access to accommodation, jobs and health facilities is needed to avoid precarious survival strategies, such as street begging, child marriage and survival sex.
Topic:
Development, Displacement, Crisis Management, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

15907. War on the virus: Military responses to COVID-19

Author:
Adam Moe Fejerskov and Johannes Lang
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Countries across the globe have mobilised security forces to counter COVID-19, but such militarised pandemic responses threaten the security of civilians and pose challenges to democracy. Main findings: When governments articulate the COVID-19 response as a ‘war’, they effectively turn a global public health crisis into an issue of national security. Granting armed forces a leading role in pandemic responses may challenge the legitimacy of other public institutions and of the armed forces themselves. The urgency of involving armed forces in COVID-19 responses means that mechanisms of audit, accountability and democratic oversight are not always upheld.
Topic:
Security, Military Affairs, Democracy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15908. Outdated lines of communication undermine legitimacy: When Denmark conducts foreign policy on behalf of Greenland … and vice versa

Author:
Sara Olsvig and Ulrik Pram Gad
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Clearly delimited spheres of authority between Greenland and Denmark within the Realm are unfeasible. Issues where Greenlandic jurisdiction and security policy overlap will increasingly arise. The Government of Denmark must follow through initiatives taken to improve involvement of the Government of Greenland (Naalakkersuisut) – and they must be extended to encompass the Parliament of Greenland (Inatsisartut). Emerging great power dynamics in the Arctic reveal how foreign and security policy is now managed decisively differently within the Danish Realm than it was at the beginning of home rule in 1979. The Government of Greenland has jurisdiction over some elements of foreign policy as well as influence on the security policy conducted in the Arctic by the Realm. However, information-sharing and decision-making procedures have not kept pace with developments and do not ensure parliamentary legitimacy for all aspects of foreign policy. Impossible to draw a line In accordance with the Self-Government Act, the Government of Greenland may engage with international partners across rather wide domains – but changing superpower approaches to the Arctic result in an increasing number of issues having security aspects. A precise demarcation of what constitutes security policy is politically impossible: if the line is drawn wide, the autonomy of Greenland will be rolled back while a tightly drawn line is unsustainable within the official constitutional interpretation, which insists that Copenhagen has a monopoly on conducting security policy. The only way forward is to strengthen the procedures for how cases are to be handled and to negotiate principles for which priorities should inform them. It will not be easy, but there are some basic steps easy to implement.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
Denmark and Greenland

15909. Renewable energy poses opportunities and challenges in Africa

Author:
Rasmus Hundsbæk Pedersen, Ole Winckler Andersen, and Henning Nøhr
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Development assistance plays an important role in the development of energy sectors in sub-Saharan African countries and it is increasingly being used to promote new renewable energy like solar and wind. The relationship between aid and domestic African priorities is however complex and outcomes are not always as donors had intended. By way of collecting experiences from a number of different approaches in different African country contexts a new DIIS Working Paper analyses recent trends in development assistance for new renewable energy. Overall, the paper demonstrates a shift to promoting market-led approaches that aim at mobilising private capital for power-sector investments. Whereas more capital has indeed been mobilised for new renewable energy projects the paper suggests that more support is needed if a transition to cleaner energy and universal access to energy services are to be achieved. Furthermore, the promotion of market-led approaches poses not only opportunities, but also a number of challenges to governments and donors. Clean energy and decarbonisation are often less of a priority among key decision-makers in African countries than they are for western donors. The paper argues that it is important to recognise these different interests and to be realistic about how to bridge them. Furthermore, despite improvements in recent years the capacity to plan, procure and integrate renewable energy in power systems remains a challenge in many countries. This points to the importance of ensuring a balance between support for market development and support for capacity-building of government entities. Needs are likely to differ from one country to another and change as renewable technologies develop. The constant adaption of approaches is therefore crucial.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

15910. A critique of geopolitics travelling South: Preface to the Brazilian edition of 'A return of geopolitics in Europe?'

Author:
Stefano Guzzini
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The DIIS Working Paper ‘From the geography of politics to the politics of geography’ is the English version of the preface for the Brazilian edition of A return of geopolitics in Europe? The book originally published with Cambridge University Press was translated by Bárbara Motta and published at the University Press of the Universidade Estadual Paulista (Editora Unesp) in São Paulo. The preface introduces the critical thesis of the political effect that the return of geopolitical thought had in Europe in the 1990s, well before 9/11. The rise of geopolitical thought can be linked to the disorientation, the foreign policy identity crises in many European countries when the end of the Cold War took away the stable coordinates of the post-1945 European security order. Its rise has, however, two pernicious consequences. First, it reverses Clausewitz by making politics the prolongation of war by other means. In other words, it militarises politics, as Aron had already criticised during the Cold War. Second, it essentialises physical and human geography, which justifies the homogenising of identities. The book does not claim that this European experience is universal, but invites scholars in Brazil to contrast it with the specificities of their political discourse and practice, the different nature of foreign policy identity crises and processes of militarisation in Latin America.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Geography
Political Geography:
Europe and Brazil

15911. Taxation in sub-Saharan Africa after Covid-19: Challenging but far from impossible

Author:
Odd Helge Fjeldstad and Ole Therkildsen
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, the need in poor countries in Africa for more revenues is obvious and growing - also because aid agencies are quite stingy in assisting them in this crisis. The pandemic’s negative impact on revenues is especially pronounced in countries that are most dependent on international trade, tourism and petroleum exports. The good news is that sub-Saharan African tax collectors have performed almost as well as their peers in the much wealthier Latin America and substantially better than in South Asian countries. Increased domestic revenue mobilisation (DRM) in poor African countries is possible depending on the country’s specific situation and political economy - but it will not be easy: The IMF’s position is that increasing the tax-to-GDP ratio by five percentage points by 2030 is a reasonable aspiration for poor countries. That was unrealistic before Covid-19: it is even more so now. No silver bullet ('tax the rich'!) will generate substantial additional revenues on its own. Better utilisation of a range of revenues sources is needed. A stop for Illicit Financial Flows will clearly help, but is not the golden egg that many believe. Inequality may increase due to Covid-19. However, major redistribution through domestic taxation (as in the Danish welfare state model) is unrealistic in countries with low revenue-to-GDP ratios. Nor is there strong organised political support for such redistribution in poor African countries. Donor support to DRM in poor countries can provide manifold returns on investments if targeted strategically. Support to relevant local and international civil society organisations is also important to help to foster public engagement in tax reforms and improved fiscal accountability. The Sustainable Development Goals in poor countries are strongly under-financed. The progress and sustainability of the SDGs will increasingly depend on poor countries’ own revenues. Hence the centrality of strategically relevant donor support to DRM.
Topic:
Poverty, Inequality, Sustainable Development Goals, Tax Systems, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

15912. U.S. and China Climate Goals: Scenarios for 2030 and Mid-Century

Author:
Asia Society Policy Institute and Climate Analytics
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
In September 2020, President Xi Jinping announced new goals for China to reach carbon neutrality before 2060, as well as to strengthen its existing 2030 commitments under the Paris Agreement. With these announcements, China has signaled a move to join the European Union—as well as the United States under a Biden administration—in leading long-term climate action among the big emitters. Our analysis demonstrates that if China’s new long-term goal covers all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and not just carbon dioxide (CO₂), this could bring the country within reach of the emissions reductions required by mid-century for its actions to be in line with the Paris Agreement’s long-term goal of limiting average global temperature increases to 1.5°C. However, if President Xi’s announcement is only meant to cover CO₂, then China would need to achieve carbon neutrality around 2050 for this to be compatible with the Paris Agreement.1 Either way, China’s short-term actions will also need to be quickly brought into line with its new long-term trajectory. This includes doing more than simply peaking CO₂ emissions before 2030 as President Xi foreshadowed. Instead, our analysis demonstrates that China would need to peak its emissions by 2025 and rapidly reduce these thereafter to be compatible with the Paris Agreement. This also implies a need for significant adjustments to the other quantifiable targets identified in China’s existing Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement and the ramping up of action to achieve these. Reducing coal-fired power generation quickly and phasing it out entirely by 2040 would be an important step toward achieving this early peak and rapid reductions. Under the Trump administration, the United States has reneged on past climate action promises and rolled back existing policies resulting in an increase in emissions compared with the Obama administration. As a result, this report highlights that even under a Biden administration, the United States is likely to miss its previous 2025 target under the Paris Agreement. However, a Biden administration means that the United States now has the potential to reverse the Trump administration’s rollbacks and make a significant contribution to closing the Paris Agreement’s ambition gap in a new 2030 NDC. Indeed, by taking the initiative to reboot U.S. action in line with the Energy and Climate Package touted by President-elect Biden during his campaign, including its goal to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, U.S. emissions could be reduced substantially by 2030.2 For example, our analysis indicates that if the Biden campaign’s policies were to be fully implemented with the support of Congress (see below), and continue to be supported by strong subnational action, they could bridge more than half of the U.S. share of the global ambition gap by 2030 through reducing emissions by up to 38%–54% below 2005 levels (GHGs, including land use, land-use change and forestry)3. This would also reduce estimates for average global temperature increases in 2100 by 0.1°C, on top of the 0.2°C–0.3°C reduction achieved by China’s recent announcement. As this report shows, President-elect Biden’s plan to decarbonize the U.S. electricity system by 2035 would represent by far the biggest contribution to this effort and is in line with the Paris Agreement temperature goal. It would result in savings of ~1,350 MtCO₂ out of a total abatement potential of ~1,810 MtCO₂e [1,630–2,100] in 2030 across his Energy and Climate Package. However, this report also estimates that potentially only half of this potential could still be achieved through Executive Authority in the event of Congress not supporting action, although this estimate carries a large degree of uncertainty. We also outline how additional emissions reductions could come from action in other areas, including freight transport and industry—with the electrification of end-use sectors and green hydrogen important opportunities to achieve this. If the United States and China fully implement these ambitious goals and are able to achieve net-zero GHG emissions around mid-century, it would be a monumental step forward toward bringing the Paris Agreement goals within reach. It would also mean that for the first time more than 60% of the world’s emissions are in countries with a clear pathway to decarbonize their economies. However, achieving the goals will require bold action in all sectors of the economy, with an early coal phaseout being paramount for both countries.
Topic:
Climate Change, Carbon Emissions, Paris Agreement, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

15913. Weaponizing the Belt and Road Initiative

Author:
Daniel R. Russel and Blake Berger
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by President Xi Jinping in 2013, is a massive international infrastructure program involving nearly 140 countries with over an estimated $1 trillion in projects related to energy, transportation, digital networks, and trade. Chinese leaders frame the BRI as “win-win” cooperation focused solely on development and connectivity. Beijing has gone to great lengths to minimize BRI’s links to the People’s Liberation Army and to downplay the initiative’s geostrategic overtones. Nevertheless, many governments have become worried about ulterior motives behind BRI projects, many of which have dual-use commercial-military capabilities and are increasingly connected to Chinese digital technologies and networks and satellite systems. The Asia Society Policy Institute’s – Weaponizing the Belt and Road Initiative – examines key BRI projects in the Indo-Pacific and explores relevant Chinese doctrine, the involvement of the People’s Liberation Army with BRI, and assesses the potential military and geostrategic advantages to China from BRI ports and other projects. This project is led by ASPI Vice President for International Security and Diplomacy Daniel Russel, with support from ASPI Senior Program Officer Blake Berger. The project and the report benefitted from advisement from experts and officials in Singapore, Australia, Japan, Vietnam, China, and the United States as well as to the expert advisory group whose distinguished members generously shared their time and wisdom to support this effort.
Topic:
Development, Geopolitics, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China and Asia

15914. Reengaging the Asia-Pacific on Trade: A TPP Roadmap for the Next U.S. Administration

Author:
Wendy Cutler
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
In the aftermath of a presidential election, it’s not unusual for an incoming administration to revisit policy choices made by the previous administration or, in the case of reelection, during the first term. One decision that strongly merits another look after November is the U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a regional trade agreement that the United States signed with 11 other countries in 2016. FULL REPORT Download In recent years, the case for U.S. participation in the TPP has only become more compelling as the political and economic importance of the Asia-Pacific region has grown and concerns about Beijing’s economic model have mounted. But is there a path for the United States to return to the TPP or to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which the 11 remaining countries finalized without the United States? This report by ASPI Vice President Wendy Cutler, Reengaging the Asia-Pacific on Trade: A TPP Roadmap for the Next U.S. Administration, examines the options that the next administration would have for reengaging the CPTPP countries on trade in light of domestic considerations and developments, as well as input from the CPTPP countries. The report concludes with a road map that offers concrete recommendations for how the next administration, Democrat or Republican, could proceed, including advocating a narrower trade negotiation as a first step to rebuilding trust and to lay the groundwork for pursuing a full-fledged CPTPP re-entry.
Topic:
Trans-Pacific Partnership and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

15915. Between War and Peace: A Roadmap for U.S. Policy Toward Iran

Author:
Puneet Talwar
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
The United States and Iran are at a dangerous impasse. After withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, the Trump administration embarked on a policy of “maximum pressure.” Its aim was to drive Iran to the negotiating table with the stated aim of striking a “better deal.” The policy has backfired as Iran has taken steps to reduce its breakout time to produce a nuclear weapon to just a few months and ramped up its aggressive policies in the Middle East. Hopes for diplomatic talks have faded and neither country seems willing to change course, heightening the risk of conflict. Indeed, Iran and the United States have approached the brink of war on more than one occasion in 2019 and 2020. Moreover, the United States has found itself isolated internationally, including from its closest allies. Against this backdrop, this ASPI issue paper, Between War and Peace: A Roadmap for U.S. Policy Toward Iran, examines the sources of tension in the U.S.-Iran relationship. To help clarify the policy choices, ASPI Senior Fellow Puneet Talwar lays out four alternative scenarios that could unfold in the period ahead, ranging from selective engagement to military escalation. The paper presents ten specific recommendations for U.S. policy toward Iran aimed at reviving diplomacy and lowering tensions on the nuclear issue while simultaneously challenging Iran over its destabilizing activities in the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, JCPOA, and Destabilization
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

15916. The Avoidable War: The Case for Managed Strategic Competition (Collection of Speeches by the Hon. Kevin Rudd)

Author:
Kevin Rudd
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Throughout the recent 18 months of the U.S.-China trade war, which has landed in a “phase one” deal, and awaits the tackling of more difficult economic elements in phase two negotiations, there has been a slow and steady structural shift in the U.S.-China relationship as it continues to head in a more adversarial direction. Against the backdrop of this drift toward confrontation occurring in the absence of any common strategic understanding or high-level diplomatic mechanism to manage the mounting economic, security, and technological tensions into the future, Asia Society Policy Institute President the Hon. Kevin Rudd brings together a series of speeches delivered during 2019 in the collection, The Avoidable War: The Case for Managed Strategic Competition. This volume works to help make sense of where the U.S.-China relationship is heading in the current period of strategic competition, and follows on from Rudd’s 2018 collection, The Avoidable War: Reflections on U.S.-China Relations and the End of Strategic Engagement. In this new volume, Rudd focuses not only on the bilateral relationship, but also on China's domestic politics, economics, and its strategic vision. But on the bilateral relationship, Rudd writes that while there may be a truce of sorts on the trade front during 2020, that will not be the case across the rest of the economic, political, and security relationship. Challenges will continue in areas such as the future of 5G mobile telecommunications infrastructure, the Belt and Road Initiative, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, allegations of Chinese political influence and interference in foreign countries’ internal democratic processes, and China’s increasingly close strategic collaboration with Russia. Militarily, tensions will continue in the East China Sea, the South China Sea, and the wider Indo-Pacific, together with confrontations less visible to the public eye in espionage, cyber, and space. Against this backdrop, and the steady erosion of diplomatic and political capital in the overall relationship, Rudd asserts that the “2020s loom as a decade of living dangerously in the U.S.-China relationship.” The Avoidable War: The Case for Managed Strategic Competition includes six speeches from 2019 covering a range of critical challenges in the U.S.-China relationship, as well as a December 2019 conversation at the Harvard Kennedy School which begins to outline an approach to managing the growing tinderbox of tensions across the spectrum of the bilateral relationship.
Topic:
Security, Bilateral Relations, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Trade, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

15917. Climate Diplomacy under a New U.S. Administration

Author:
Thom Woodroofe and Brendan Guy
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
The United States is the world’s second-largest greenhouse gas emitter. For that reason, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November will have an undeniable impact on the future of the global climate change regime. This is especially the case now that the United Nations’ COP26 Climate Change Conference has been postponed to 2021 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Indeed, as Asia and the rest of the world consider whether and how to step up their levels of ambition as part of the five-year ratchet mechanism of the Paris Agreement, the United States has the potential to be either a catalytic force for that effort going into 2021 or an even stronger spoiler of the Agreement’s ongoing effectiveness at a crucial juncture. No country will be watching more closely than China. The 2014 U.S.-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change between President Barack Obama and President Xi Jinping proved to be the watershed moment in the lead-up to the Paris Agreement, as the two countries signaled for the first time that they would act in a coordinated manner to combat climate change. Whether the United States and China can recapture that spirit of shared ambition in the future will have ripple effects on the positions of other major emitters as well—especially India, Japan, and Australia, which may not enhance their own levels of ambition without a stronger indication of further action by the United States and China. While President Donald Trump has begun the process of withdrawing the United States from the Paris Agreement and rolled back domestic and international measures to combat climate change, it is clear that if a Democrat is elected president in 2020, they would make combating climate change a defining priority of their administration. Therefore, a clearer understanding of the specific approach that would underpin the climate diplomacy of a new Democratic president can provide greater reassurance to the international community as countries consider their own levels of ambition in the lead-up to COP26 and beyond.
Topic:
Climate Change, Diplomacy, Carbon Emissions, COVID-19, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
China and United States of America

15918. China’s Response to Climate Change: A Study in Contrasts and a Policy at a Crossroads

Author:
David B. Sandalow
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
China is the world’s leading emitter of heat-trapping gases, by far. In 2019, Chinese emissions were greater than emissions from the United States, the European Union, and Japan combined. There is no solution to climate change without China. China’s response to climate change is a study in contrasts. China leads the world in solar power, wind power, and electric vehicle deployment, but also in coal consumption. The Chinese government has adopted some of the world’s most ambitious energy efficiency and forest conservation policies, but is financing a significant expansion of coal-fired power plant capacity at home and abroad. China’s leaders are strongly committed to the Paris Agreement, but appear to attach less priority to climate change than in years past. This Issue Paper explores these contrasts. It does so at an important time in Chinese climate change policy. During the next 18 months, the Chinese government will spend heavily on economic stimulus measures, release its 14th Five-Year Plan (for 2021–2025), and develop short- and long-term climate action plans (known as its “updated nationally-determined contributions” and “mid-century strategy” in the terminology of the global U.N. climate process). Decisions by the Chinese government will reverberate globally, including in the United States. A Biden administration’s ambition in addressing climate change would be reinforced by ambition in China. This Issue Paper provides an up-to-date snapshot of China’s climate policies, drawing on data from 2019 and the beginning of 2020 (during the height of the COVID-19 economic lockdown), as well as recent remarks by Chinese leaders. It starts by examining Chinese emissions of heat-trapping gases. It then discusses China’s principal climate policies, explaining the main tools the Chinese government uses to address climate change and related topics. The Issue Paper concludes with a discussion of processes that will shape Chinese climate change policy in the years ahead.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Economy, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

15919. The Emergence of Another African Conflict: Egypt, Ethiopia and Geopolitics of the Renaissance Dam

Author:
Mehari Taddele Maru
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Very few consider that despite the possibility of conflict or cooperation, such changes in the exploitation of the Nile River resources are due to changing relations and the need to address long-standing unfair and hegemonic approaches to trans-boundary resource sharing.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, Ethiopia, and Egypt

15920. The Shifting Geopolitics of Coronavirus and the Demise of Neoliberalism – (Part 1)

Author:
Mohammed Cherkaoui
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
One should highlight the distance between fiction and reality. However, a number of China politics observers and Western military officials have claimed a strong link between Coronavirus and recent research conducted at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Neoliberalism, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China and Asia

15921. The Shifting Geopolitics of Coronavirus and the Demise of Neoliberalism – (Part 2)

Author:
Mohammed Cherkaoui
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
What is needed now, more than ever, is a public debate of moral autonomy of citizens in redefining the rights and obligations of the state and reconstructing their moral authority. The debate needs to kick off on a blank slate.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Neoliberalism, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15922. Moscow's Maneuvres for Mediterranean Bases and ME Markets

Author:
Zaki Shaikh
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
By carrying on the activities of the Russian military contingents in Syria and with its backing of Libya’s renegade general Khalifa Haftar, Moscow seeks to reassert its role in the Mediterranean and leverage a strategy for generating low-risk yet high yield wins.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Geopolitics, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, Libya, Syria, and Mediterranean

15923. Africa Versus Coronavirus: Four Much-Needed Capabilities

Author:
Mehari Taddele Maru
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
For many African countries, prevention of Coronavirus has no alterative as financial and structural demands of treatment far exceed capabilities. Without stricter measures, the infection curve will be exponential and flattening it will take a long time with more deaths.
Topic:
Coronavirus, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa

15924. Eight Heads of States versus Coronavirus: A Leadership Comparative Question – Part 1

Author:
Mohammed Cherkaoui
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Leadership in crisis can be a mixture of science, history, and art. It derives from the need for being well-informed with data and dynamics, well-enlightened with best practices and matured wisdom among previous leaders in similar challenging times.
Topic:
Governance, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15925. Eight Heads of States versus Coronavirus: A Leadership Comparative Question – Part 2

Author:
Mohammed Cherkaoui
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
It seems to be a three-way failure of leadership, national public policies, as well as international institutions, and should not be overshadowed by mere crisis management. By April 12, the infection cases escalated to 1,781,383 with 108,864 deaths worldwide.
Topic:
Government, Crisis Management, Coronavirus, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15926. The U.S.-Iran Showdown: Clashing Strategic Universes Amid a Changing Region

Author:
Ross Harrison
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The United States and Iran are poised for a showdown. Understanding where we are today with this conflict and where we are likely to go in the future requires that we look at the conflicting strategic doctrines between the United States and Iran against a backdrop of a shifting Middle East.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

15927. China’s Battle with Coronavirus: Possible Geopolitical Gains and Real Challenges

Author:
Jean-Pierre Cabestan
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
China has tried to take advantage of the Coronavirus crisis to boost its international role and status. Nonetheless, China’s own mistakes in battling the virus as well as diplomatic aggressiveness have raised doubts about its capacity to become a world leader.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Coronavirus, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
China and Asia

15928. The Trump-Iran Showdown: A Conflict Resolution Perspective

Author:
Richard E. Rubenstein and Oakley Thomas Hill
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Why would Trump run the risk of a war by assassinating Iran’s most effective general? Conventional Realist explanations do not answer the question adequately. The imperial strategy and the American Empire’s decline points toward a more convincing (and alarming) explanation.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, and Qassem Soleimani
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

15929. Awaiting A Post-Coronavirus Dawn: What Kind of Recovery?

Author:
Barry Eichengreen
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
What kind of economic recovery from the Covid-19 crisis should we expect? Attempts to answer this question must start by acknowledging an unusually high degree of uncertainty about the immediate future. There is uncertainty about the recurrence of the virus, about how policy makers will balance public health and economic goals, and about the ability of governments to ramp up their capacity to test, trace and isolate the infected, thereby making it safe for others to return to work. Further sources of uncertainty include the behavioral responses of households and investors, the sustainability of the extraordinary monetary and fiscal policies adopted in response to the crisis, and the extent to which economic organization will change in the new public-health environment. These aspects of the current crisis and their contrasts with crises past suggest that recovery from the Covid-19 crisis will be bumpy, subdued and above all uncertain, and that it will differ in Europe and the United States.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, Global Focus, and United States of America

15930. Responding to Kissinger: The Risks of Remodeling Neoliberalism and Manipulating the Enlightenment values

Author:
Mohammed Cherkaoui
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Kissinger aims to skip any debate of the financial elitist performance of Neoliberalism. He seeks to dissipate concerns over a post-Coronavirus reality with some romanticized Enlightenment values. He expects the world’s democracies “to defend and sustain their Enlightenment values.”
Topic:
Finance and Neoliberalism
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

15931. Into Orbit: Iran’s Nour 1 Satellite and the Two-Wing Doctrine

Author:
Ali Akbar Dareini
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
“The Central Intelligence Agency has been secretly supplying Iraq with detailed intelligence, including data from sensitive U.S. satellite reconnaissance photography, to assist Iraqi bombing raids on Iran’s oil terminals and power plants in the war between the two nations … Iraq reportedly used the intelligence to calibrate attacks with mustard gas on Iranian ground troops.” (1) This was a Washington Post report in 1986. “In 1988, during the waning days of Iraq’s war with Iran, the United States learned through satellite imagery that Iran was about to gain a major strategic advantage by exploiting a hole in Iraqi defenses. U.S. intelligence officials conveyed the location of the Iranian troops to Iraq, fully aware that (Saddam) Hussein’s military would attack with chemical weapons, including sarin, a lethal nerve agent.” (2) This was part of one of the declassified CIA documents published by Foreign Policy on 26 August 2013. Satellite imagery, communications intercepts and CIA assessments forwarded by the United States to Iraqi commanders showing ‘where the Iranian weaknesses were’ led to the death of many Iranian soldiers and civilians during the bloody 1980-88 war. That bitter and costly experience left a profound impact on the minds of Iranian military strategists. Having an intelligence eye to watch enemies from the sky and prevent similar disasters in the future preoccupied their brains. At the outset, possessing instruments of visual observation in the sky appeared to be a dream for many Iranians. But that would be a long-term project to make sure that Iran would not suffer again. Reconnaissance satellite is now widely seen as a strategic asset enabling states possessing this technology to obtain first-hand key information about the activities and resources of their enemies. It also enables states to protect their national security in this competitive world. This paper argues that great powers threaten weaker states. And regional powers like Iran have no option to survive but to get strong in order not to be bullied. It also argues that Iran, by successfully launching its “first military satellite” into orbit, has demonstrated a new capability that may shift the balance of power in its favor amid increasing tensions with the United States.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Power Politics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

15932. Libya’s Zero-Sum Politics and Defiance of Legitimacy – Part 1

Author:
Mohammed Cherkaoui
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
There has been fluctuation and reconstruction of political legitimacy. Since the summer of 2014, two battles over legitimacy have spoiled Libyan politics and weakened the UN mediation with two rounds of international recognition of one new political institution or another.
Topic:
Politics, United Nations, Conflict, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:
Africa, Libya, and North Africa

15933. Libya’s Zero-Sum Politics and Defiance of Legitimacy – Part 2

Author:
Mohammed Cherkaoui
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Foreign manipulation defies the wisdom of envisioning a political settlement of the Libyan conflict. All international diplomatic gestures need to be aligned via the UN platform, with a well-defined trajectory, rather than any zero-game equation or realist calculation.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, United Nations, Conflict, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:
Africa, Libya, and North Africa

15934. How Arab States Take on Coronavirus: Morocco as a Case Study

Author:
Mohammed Issam Laaroussi
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Tremendous socio-economic and political challenges are facing Morocco during the Coronavirus crisis. Regardless of the promising signs of a short-term momentum in unity and institutional trust, the institutional weaknesses in the public policy and healthcare system have not disappeared.
Topic:
Politics, Coronavirus, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, Arab Countries, and Morocco

15935. Beyond Health: Looking for Europe’s Strategy vis-à-vis the COVID-19 Crisis

Author:
Thibaud Deruelle
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Europe is among the most affected regions in the world by the spread of COVID-19. The continent was designated in March 2020 as the new epicenter of the pandemic and Europe’s recovery strategy to the crisis seems to be threatened by a lack of solidarity. This paper analyses how the European Union (EU) governance system has – so far – conditioned the construction of a modest coordinated European response to the crisis. It examines how the insufficiencies of the EU governance system have – so far – conditioned the construction of a modest coordinated European response to the crisis. It suggests that COVID-19 is a learning opportunity(1) rather than a make-or-break event. Crises in the EU are important catalysts of change(2) and offer a propitious context for policy learning.(3) This paper suggests that COVID-19 is a learning opportunity rather than a make-or-break event. Two lessons are highlighted: first, this crisis shows that if Europeans bet on solidarity as an incentive to cooperate, their chances to produce prompt and ambitious responses are slim and overshadowed by power-struggles on what the governance of the EU ought to be. Second, while the crisis started as a public health problem, the crux of the debate is now centered on a common economic recovery strategy. The challenge ahead will be to avoid that lessons learned about public health are cannibalized by economic affairs.
Topic:
Governance, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

15936. Trump’s Presidency: Nuances of Leadership versus Management of Crises

Author:
Mohammed Cherkaoui
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The current riots across America represent a moment of rebuttal at the conjuncture between an exit from the Coronavirus dilemma and Trump’s pursuit of a second term a few weeks before the National Conventions of the Republican and Democratic parties.
Topic:
Conflict, Crisis Management, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

15937. The Lingering Stalemate: Qatar’s Blockade Awaits a Mediation Exit

Author:
Mohammed Cherkaoui
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
On June 6, 2020, the Qatari crisis entered its fourth year with two parallel political discourses, which have endured the complexity of issues between Qatar and the Quartet [Saudi Arabia, Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt] since early June 2017: a) diplomatic hopes in the U.S.-backed Kuwaiti mediation amidst several gestures of rapprochement between the Qataris and the Saudis; and b) disparity of positions by the disputing parties while maintaining status quo politics. The Trump administration has urged the Quartet capitals to reopen their airspace for Qatari airlines as a step toward ending the open-ended blockade. The Wall Street Journal quoted U.S. officials saying "there is a greater sense of urgency to resolve the airspace issue. It's an ongoing irritation for us that money goes into Iran's coffers due to Qatar Airways overflights." (1) The Trump White House has been irritated by the so-called "overfly fees" that Qatar pays to Iran to use its airspace. There is growing hope Washington’s call will trigger momentum for lifting the land and sea blockade imposed on Qatar as well. Qatar’s foreign minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani hopes “the initiative will produce results, we are open to dialogue and ready to meet each step forward with 10 steps from our side.” (2) Unlike the Saudis, the Emiratis have maintained the 2017 demands, and UAE Foreign Minister Anwar Gargash insists “this issue will stay with us, and we have to manage it in a better way until we reach a future stage.” He has often characterized the blockade as “a result of Doha's interference policies," and argued "the solution for this crisis should be based on dealing with the causes of it." (3) As a result, the three-year blockade is causing a hurting stalemate for both sides of the Gulf conflict. In his new book “Qatar and the Gulf Crisis”, Kristian C. Ulrichsen argues the blockade has become “stuck at a political level where the Saudi and Emirati leadership—and especially Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Mohammed bin Zayed—appear reluctant to make the first move to offer concessions or progress to a negotiated compromise.” (4) This paper examines some major narrative turns of the Quartet-Qatar showdown and the transformation of Trump’s position. It traces the possibility of a de-escalation shift along Washington’s pursuit of mediation in the framework of the Kuwaiti diplomacy; and weighs on the future of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), as a counterbalance of the Arab Gulf strategic (dis)unity and common existentialism in a turbulent region.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi

15938. The Hard Chess Puzzle: Trump’s ‘Maximum Pressure’ versus Iran’s ‘Maximum Resistance’

Author:
Kayhan Barzegar
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
As the dice of the “maximum pressure” and “maximum resistance” policies are rotating between Iran and the United States, a new synthesis, seemingly satisfactory for both parties, emerges and that is appealing to a “minimum containment” policy and avoiding an unwanted war.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

15939. The Pandemic Makes Politics Worse: The Unites States as a Case Study

Author:
Jennifer Nicoll Victor
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Covid-19 makes politics worse because it has generated not only greater awareness about many inequalities in the US, but it also has sharpened those inequalities. Unfortunately, inequalities such as those discussed here have a way of becoming self-perpetuating.
Topic:
Inequality, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

15940. The Islamic Group and Lebanon’s Popular Uprising*

Author:
Chafic Choucair
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
While a number of key and effective groups within the Lebanese regime stood against the Hirak movement, other parties, though few in number, provided the popular movement with unconditional support, as in the case of the Islamic Group (al-Jama’ah al-Islamiya).
Topic:
Politics, Islamism, Hezbollah, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

15941. COVID-19: The Lingering Conflict and the Regional Balance of Power in Yemen

Author:
Moosa Elayah
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The longer the pandemic lasts, with its detrimental financial and social effects, the higher the chances for terrorist groups to increase their influence in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria and spread this to neighbouring countries.
Topic:
Economics, Conflict, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, and Syria

15942. Tunisia’s Fragile Democracy: Decentralization, Institution-Building and the Development of Marginalized Regions – Policy Briefs from the Region and Europe

Author:
Dina Fakoussa and Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Although Tunisia has made great strides over the past seven years, its democratization process remains fragile. Disillusionment with and distrust in the government, particularly high among the young, also manifest themselves in low voter turnout. Young voters were strikingly absent in the 2014 parliamentary elections, and in the first municipal elections in May 2018, only 33.7 percent of Tunisians cast their votes. To a great extent, this disillusionment stems from the various, persistent socio-economic problems which had led to the uprisings and the ouster of the former autocratic regime in 2011. Especially in Tunisia’s historically marginalized regions, these issues remain a key challenge.
Topic:
Government, Elections, Democracy, Fragile States, and Decentralization
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, and Tunisia

15943. Morocco’s SocioEconomic Challenges: Employment, Education, and Migration – Policy Briefs from the Region and Europe

Author:
Dina Fakoussa and Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Even though the Moroccan king’s readiness to introduce reforms in response to the mass protests in 2011 has prevented the kind of radical change occurring in many other countries in the MENA region and has maintained the country’s relative stability, Morocco’s social peace remains fragile. Social unrest has flared recurrently, most prominently in the Rif region, as socio-economic grievances persist. The country continues to suffer from significant regional disparities, a poor education system, and high unemployment, especially among the young.
Topic:
Education, Migration, Employment, Protests, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Europe, North Africa, and Morocco

15944. Socio-Economic Challenges and the Impact of Regional Dynamics on Jordan: Employment, Social Cohesion, and International Cooperation – Policy Briefs from the Region and Europe

Author:
Dina Fakoussa and Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Jordan’s stability is severely challenged by socio-economic hardship. The country is plagued by high un-employment rates, an alarming debt-to-GDP ratio of around 94 percent, corruption, and dismal social ser-vices. The fight against terrorism has also resulted in further infringement of rights such as freedom of expression. These grievances have led to a series of protests and strikes in the past two years; the latest strike by teachers has had a far-reaching impact on the public.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Terrorism, Employment, Economy, Freedom of Expression, Protests, Unemployment, and Social Cohesion
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Jordan

15945. Jordan’s Socio-Economic Woes and Foreign Policy Employment, Trade, and International Cooperation – Policy Briefs from the Region and Europe

Author:
Dina Fakoussa and Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Grievances have been growing over Jordan’s socio-economic and political problems, including high public debt, a significant current account deficit, and high unemployment. In June 2018, former Prime Minister Hani al-Mulki was forced to resign after mass protests swept the country in response to a new income tax law proposal. Jordan’s socio-economic challenges are further augmented by its challenging neighborhood. This includes the conflicts in neighboring Syria and Iraq, the threat posed by extremist actors in the region as well as the impact which the Gulf Cooperation Council’s crisis over the blockade of Qatar has had on Jordan.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Employment, and Trade
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Syria, and Jordan

15946. Socio-Economic Development and Violent Extremism in Morocco Morocco’s Regional Policy, Migration and (De-)Radicalization – Policy Briefs from the Region and Europe

Author:
Dina Fakoussa and Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Similar to many other countries in the region, violent extremist groups and ideologies pose a significant threat to Moroccan society and the stability of the country. In response, the government has pursued a highly security-based approach, which has resulted in the arrest of over 3,000 (alleged) jihadis and the dismantling of 186 terrorist cells between 2002 and 2018. While the root causes are multi- faceted, Morocco’s ongoing socio-economic challenges, which have reinforced economic and political grievances, have fueled radicalization. For this reason, some have demanded that the government prioritize greater domestic engagement instead of increasing investment in countries south of the Sahara.
Topic:
Security, Development, Migration, Violent Extremism, and Radicalization
Political Geography:
Africa and Morocco

15947. The Tornado Complex Conflicting Goals & Possible Solutions for the New German Combat Aircraft

Author:
Christian Mölling and Heinrich Brauß
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The decision about the successor aircraft for the Tornado is important not just for Europe’s security and for Germany’s role in NATO. It also has consequences for the future of the defense industry in Germany and Europe. Finally, whether the choice is made in favor of a European or a US solution will impact both the transatlantic and the Franco-German relationship.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, Weapons, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and United States of America

15948. Germany’s Role in NATO’s Nuclear Sharing The Purchasing Decision for the Tornado’s Successor Aircraft

Author:
Heinrich Brauß and Christian Mölling
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Germany will need to replace its aging “Tornado” combat aircraft from 2025. To date, the federal government is considering purchasing F-18 aircraft from the United States or refitting Eurofighter planes. Buying state-of-the-art F-35 planes has been ruled out. Given Russia’s deployment of new intermediate-range missiles on its Western territory, this decision should be reconsidered.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Nuclear Power, and Weapons
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America

15949. An Eastern Policy Update, but No Upgrade: The EU needs a more ambitious Eastern Partnership strategy

Author:
Cristina Gherasimov
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The EU is set to adopt a new Eastern Partnership (EaP) policy at a summit in June. This is strategically important for it and for its eastern neighborhood, where other powers like Russia and China pursue competing interests. As the policymaking process stands and given the tight deadline, however, the EU will only update and not upgrade the EaP framework due to EU states’ diverging interests. Brussels and Berlin will need to keep the EaP on the agenda after the summit to safeguard the EU’s transformative power in the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, and Asia

15950. How Leaders Can Stop Corona from Undermining the EU: The Health and Economic Crises Require Coordinated Handling

Author:
Daniela Schwarzer and Shahin Vallée
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The coronavirus pandemic, and the resulting severe economic disruptions, can only be effectively tackled with a European and global response. The degree of integration and interdependence between member states – economically, politically and socially – means that in dealing with the virus and its economic effects, the EU is only as strong as its weakest part. Governments have to devise a more forward-looking, collective response. Hesitation and the failure to tackle the problem collectively will increase the losses – in terms of lives, economic wellbeing, political stability and EU unity.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Political stability, Coronavirus, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe