Search

Begin New Search Publication Year within 10 Years

30221. Subsidizing Rebels, Taxing Atrocities: Saving Lives in Civil Wars

Author:
Andrew Kydd
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
The Syrian civil war has lasted over five years and has resulted in the deaths of over 400,000 civilians. The relatively restrained policy of the US toward Syria has sometimes been criticized as inadequate. Would a limited intervention motivated by humanitarian concerns have reduced the death toll at an acceptable cost? Limited intervention would affect the conflict primarily by strengthening the rebel side and raising the cost to the regime of attacking civilians. I show using a game theoretic model that fostering a balance of power between the government and the rebels would only lead the government to commit more atrocities and prolong the war. Raising the cost to the government of committing atrocities, however, could be beneficial under certain conditions. I then discuss four policy options considered during the Obama administration and assess their likely effects.
Topic:
Civil War, Syrian War, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Atrocities, Game Theory, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

30222. An Agent-Based Model of Counterfactual Opportunities for Reducing Atrocities in Syria, 2011 - 2014

Author:
Ian Lustick, Miguel Garces, and Thomas McCauley
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
Computer-assisted agent-based modeling (ABM) allows us to examine not just history as it happened but history as it could have happened. This ability opens opportunities for causal analysis of variations in atrocities against civilians or in the conditions believed to make civilian atrocities much more likely. Once different pathways into the future from the same set of antecedent conditions are traceable, analysis of large numbers of stochastically perturbed model runs can aid in the evaluation of alternative causal stories. This technique has the potential to test arguments about which factors may have been crucial in determining outcomes, which junctures were critical, and which mitigation strategies would have been preferable, for what reasons. But in applying available ABM simulation technology to the problem of assessing opportunities for mitigating threats of large-scale civilian atrocities, how practical, direct, and useful would the results be? This general question was translated, in this pilot project, into an exploration of the extent to which an agent-based model of Syria, tuned to 2010, could illuminate the likely effects of plausible policies that the US government could have enacted or contributed to at critical junctures in the Syrian conflict. As described in part 2 of this report, we built an agent-based model of Syria tuned to 2010, allowing us to experiment with the state space of Syria’s past from 2011 to 2015. A key objective was to assess the reasonableness of a variety of contemporaneous policy prescriptions made by decision makers and strategies suggested by informed observers. The counterfactual scenarios for mitigating civilian atrocities in Syria were identified with critical junctures— episodes or states of affairs, at particular points in time, that have been identified as potentially significant bifurcation points leading toward or away from conditions liable to produce high levels of civilian atrocities. Particular attention was paid to the manner in which those junctures were or could have been influenced by US policy choices. However, given the limits of the model as a pilot project, which focused on Syria and not on the region or the world, considerable variation exists—across the five critical junctures examined—in the extent to which US policies (or their absence) can be understood as being potentially implicated in the path the “real” Syria followed.
Topic:
History, Syrian War, Atrocities, Counterfactuals, and Models
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

30223. Evaluating Counterfactual US Policy Action in Syria, 2011-16: A Review of Empirical Evidence from Related Cases

Author:
Daniel Solomon
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
In public and policy debates about the US response to the conflict in Syria, comparisons to past responses to international cases of mass atrocity have become a fixture. In these debates, analysts use lessons from those past responses to forecast the likely consequences of US policy action in Syria or to speculate about the counterfactual consequences of actions not taken at various junctures. Comparisons to historical cases of international response provide important mental models for policy makers seeking to use specific tools and strategies to respond to the risk or occurrence of mass atrocities.2 For example, Barack Obama has said that his unwillingness to pursue military action against the government of Bashar al-Assad in response to its use of chemical weapons in August 2013 resulted in part from his dismay at the instability that followed the military operation that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) led against Muammar Gaddafi’s forces in Libya in 2011.3 For Obama, the risk that even limited military action in Syria could become “another Libya” was enough to remove a range of possible military options from consideration. Which counterfactual US actions, if any, might have prevented or mitigated violence against civilians in Syria? This paper uses a systematic review of empirical studies of international responses to mass atrocities and related phenomena to evaluate these contemporary debates about US policy action in Syria.4 The purpose of this review is to evaluate plausible alternative avenues the US may have taken to prevent or mitigate mass atrocities against civilians in Syria. This analysis centers on “minimal rewrite” counterfactuals, in which a different policy action at a specific, time-bounded juncture in the US policy process on Syria might have led to a different outcome in violence against civilians. “Minimal rewrite” counterfactuals are opposed to socalled miracle world counterfactuals, which would require significant changes to the structural or contextual conditions that shape US policy.5 The paper centers on three policy actions that the US government debated—and in some cases implemented, to a limited degree—at various junctures since the conflict began in March 2011: (a) lethal support to the armed Syrian opposition, (b) limited strikes against Syrian government targets, and (c) no-fly zones. Although those US officials sometimes debated these options during overlapping junctures, the paper addresses opposition support and the direct military options as separate phenomena. The paper uses a review of historical, qualitative and quantitative studies of related cases and policy actions to assess the extent to which these actions may have affected the scope and severity of subsequent atrocities in Syria.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Atrocities, Counterfactuals, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

30224. A Survey of Expert Judgments on the Effects of Counterfactual US Actions on Civilian Fatalities in Syria, 2011 - 2016

Author:
Lawerence Woocher
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
The survey focused on four “minimal rewrite” counterfactuals: (a) President Obama’s not calling publicly for Syrian president Bashar al-Assad to “step aside” in 2011, (b) the vetting and arming of moderate rebels in 2012, (c) the use of airstrikes to enforce the “red line” against chemical weapons use in 2013, and (d) the choice of an “Assad first” strategy instead of an “ISIS first” strategy in 2014.1 Respondents were asked to make probabilistic assessments on whether the counterfactual actions would have resulted in fewer civilian fatalities over the subsequent 12 months. They were also asked to cite the most important factors that led to their assessments and to identify other US government actions that would have been more effective in reducing civilian fatalities at the time. The clearest findings are (a) on average, respondents did not rate any of the four main counterfactuals very highly: neither the median nor the mean response on any of the four key counterfactual estimates was as high as 50 percent; and (b) very little consensus existed among respondents about the effect of the counterfactual actions on civilian fatalities over the subsequent year. The data reveal greater consensus on what the “most important factors” were, yet some striking disagreement on key analytical points. Finally, the most frequently cited ideas of other actions that would have helped reduce civilian fatalities were various types of (direct or indirect) military actions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Civilians, Atrocities, Counterfactuals, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

30225. Allies Against Atrocities: The Imperative for Transatlantic Cooperation to Prevent and Stop Mass Killings

Author:
Lee Feinstein and Tod Lindberg
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
A generation after Rwanda and Bosnia, many of the world powers who apologized for their lack of an early and effective response to genocide during the 1990s have yet to organize themselves sufficiently to act early and effectively to prevent or stop mass atrocities. The horror of Syria is Exhibit A. As responses to past atrocity crimes show, averting and halting atrocities requires a coordinated and sustained effort by local, regional, and international actors. This report argues that a multilateral response is necessary and that the transatlantic region has a critical role to play in shaping and leading these efforts. The governments of the transatlantic community—the United States, Canada, and Europe—already devote significant resources and political capital to the prevention and amelioration of crises and conflicts, as well as to the pursuit of international development agendas. Without better cooperation among themselves and their like-minded cousins, efforts to address mass atrocities will continue to be reactive, slow, and devastating to human life and potential. Individual transatlantic countries should be involved in those efforts, each bringing its unique capacities to the table. From the vantage point of the report's authors, the United States has a particularly important role to play in encouraging greater transatlantic cooperation among states on this issue. Principle Recommendations: Devise and implement coordinated transatlantic atrocity prevention efforts Internationalize atrocity prevention efforts Improve coordination of financial sanctions Develop an international legal framework adequate to the challenge of atrocity prevention Prioritize civilian protection in military responses that include peacekeeping
Topic:
International Cooperation, Sanctions, Peacekeeping, Civilians, Atrocities, Transatlantic Relations, Atrocity Prevention, and Protection
Political Geography:
Europe, Canada, North America, and United States of America

30226. The State of the Humanitarian System 2018: Inception report

Author:
ALNAP
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:
Following the publication of the 2015 SOHS report this inception report sets out the goals and scope of research for the 2018 edition and details its methodological approach. It incorporates the findings from a conference set up to review the methodologies used in the 2015 edition, as well as other lessons learned from previous after-action reviews. The 2018 edition will assess performance over the period January 2015–December 2017. It will also compare its findings with the three previous editions, in order to capture key trends covering a 10- year period. The 2018 SOHS report will therefore provide an up-to-date assessment of the size and shape of the humanitarian system and its current performance; and also a retrospective picture of key trends and changes that have taken place over the last decade. To ensure that the report is as readable and useful as possible, a few small but important modifications have been made. First, in order to make clear the parameters and scope of the report, the study team has developed a precise definition of the unit of analysis – the international humanitarian system. In addition, it has made changes and improvements to the OECD DAC criteria used to assess performance; and, in response to requests from readers of previous editions, the methods used to gather data from aid recipients have been strengthened. The study team will also seek to liaise with local groups and organisations in the collection and analysis of this data. In view of the commitments made at the World Humanitarian Summit (WHS), the study team will introduce and pilot a new methodology aimed at capturing outcomes that may be emerging as a result of the reform processes underway. The aim will be to report on whether and how these outcomes are having any impact on overall performance. As with previous editions, the report will be primarily descriptive and analytical rather than prescriptive. It will be based on a robust and tested method combined with the best available evidence and, although the analysis will reflect insights into the factors bringing about changes and trends, the main aim is not to provide concrete recommendations for change and improvement. The SOHS report is intended as a resource for all people and organisations that work in, or with, the international humanitarian community.
Topic:
Finance, Performance Evaluation, Aid Effectiveness, and Humanitarian Organizations
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30227. Learning from the Ebola Response in cities: Communication and engagement

Author:
Ian Christoplos
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:
The West African Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in 2014/15 posed a number of urban-specific challenges to humanitarians responding to the crisis. ALNAP's Learning from the Ebola Response in cities series brings together the lessons learnt from the response in West Africa, with each paper focusing on a topic: quarantine, population movement, and communication. Communication and engagement This paper describes how humanitarians communicated and engaged with urban stakeholders in Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone. It focuses in particular on how humanitarians navigated urban notions of community, a dense and mobile population, participation in an environment of little trust and other related issues.
Topic:
Ebola, Cities, Stakeholders, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:
Africa

30228. Learning from the Ebola Response in cities: Population movement

Author:
Leah Campbell
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:
The West African Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in 2014/15 posed a number of urban-specific challenges to humanitarians responding to the crisis. ALNAP's Learning from the Ebola Response in cities series brings together the lessons learnt from the response in West Africa, with each paper focusing on a topic: quarantine, population movement, and engaging with communities. Population movement Population mobility is a critical area of concern in any infectious disease crisis, and particularly in those spread through human-to-human contact, such as Ebola. During the West African Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in 2014/15, population mobility within and between urban and rural areas became a key challenge for humanitarian response. This paper explores the urban dimensions of population mobility, including forces for and drivers of mobility as well as the implications for humanitarian response.
Topic:
Ebola, Mobility, Urban, Disaster Management, and Epidemic
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

30229. Learning from the Ebola Response in Cities: Responding in the context of urban quarantine

Author:
Leah Campbell, Christopher Adan, and Milimer Morgado
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:
The West African Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in 2014/15 posed a number of urban-specific challenges to humanitarians responding to the crisis. ALNAP's 'Learning from Ebola' series brings together the lessons learnt from the response in West Africa, with each paper focusing on a topic: quarantine, population movement, and engaging with communities. Quarantine This paper brings together lessons from interviews with humanitarians and local responders, as well as existing literature, about the use of quarantine in urban environments during the humanitarian response to the Ebola Crisis.
Topic:
Ebola, Urban, Cities, Disaster Management, Epidemic, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:
Africa, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea

30230. Working with people and communities in urban humanitarian crises

Author:
Leah Campbell
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:
This Working Paper explores the topic of working with urban populations and communities. It draws on practical challenges and approaches in relation to targeting and communication with urban populations, and in the mobilisation of urban communities.
Topic:
Communications, Media, Crisis Management, Accountability, Urban, Participation, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:
Global Focus