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1. Building a Mature UK Trade Policy

Author:
David Henig
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Global Britain has not delivered according to the hopes expressed by supporters of leaving the EU. Trade with the rest of the world has not grown to make up for leaving a bloc with seamless trade, early Free Trade Agreements with Australia and New Zealand are of minor economic significance, and it is hard to discern much of a strategy beyond completing a few more similar deals. Meanwhile the world of trade policy is transformed since 2016, negatively. The US has essentially declared its national interests to be more important than global rules, while the EU wants to act unilaterally as the global regulator. In both, the climate crisis is being used as an excuse to reintroduce protectionist measures threatening economic damage and global stability. Expectations of what a UK outside of the EU could achieve were exaggerated, but nonetheless the country could be doing a lot better in its trade policy. There is no good reason for such tensions as exist with a broad range of frustrated stakeholders, the absence of clear purpose on UK strengths such as services, or the defensiveness that seemingly takes pride in secrecy and resistance to proper scrutiny. Adjustment time was inevitable, but six years should have been enough.
Topic:
Economics, European Union, Free Trade, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

2. United Kingdom Engagement with North Korea

Author:
Alastair Morgan
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
As one of the Allied Powers, The United Kingdom was involved in Post-World War II planning for the Korean peninsula, including the November 1943 Cairo Conference declaration that “… in due course, Korea shall become free and independent.” However, US President Roosevelt’s proposal at the February 1945 Yalta Conference did not establish a formal role for the UK in the trusteeship of Korea. Subsequently, the United States and the Soviet Union agreed to divide the peninsula at the 38th parallel in August 1945, and direct British involvement in the peninsula was limited prior to the Korean War. The United Kingdom’s Korean War contribution to the United Nations Command was second only to the United States, with significant deployments of maritime and air assets in addition to the provision of ground troops. Almost 60,000 British troops saw action, with nearly 5,000 killed, wounded, missing in action, or taken prisoner. Following the armistice, the United Kingdom has continued to send representation to the United Nations Command. The armistice agreement includes an obligation on so-called “Sending States” to respond to renewed hostility. Although there is no automatic UK commitment to send forces, the armistice agreement remains a consideration in engagement with North Korea.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, Education, Politics, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, and North Korea

3. UK Economic Diplomacy in the 21st Century: The LSE Economic Diplomacy Commission Final Report

Author:
LSE Economic Diplomacy Commission
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
The LSE Economic Diplomacy Commission was convened in 2019 to establish a strategic direction for a new age of foreign economic policy, to understand the domestic ramifications of changes to the UK’s trade agenda, and to present recommendations that may best advance the UK’s priorities at home and abroad. The aim of the Report is to position the UK optimally in a changed 21st century global economy while maintaining the UK’s support for an open, multilateral trade and rules-based international system. The Report proposes a refined economic diplomacy framework that seeks to balance commercial openness with strategic domestic and foreign policy aims, broadly defined.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

4. The economic contribution of UK rail

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The UK railway sector supported £42.9 billion of economic production (GVA) in 2019, associated with 710,000 jobs. Productivity and wage levels, both on the railways and in the rail supply sector, were above-average in every region. The UK railway sector supported £42.9 billion of economic production and was associated with 710,000 jobs and £14.1 billion in tax revenues in 2019, new research by Oxford Economics finds. The rail transport system—Network Rail and the train and metro system operators—accounted for £12.2 billion of that total Gross Value Added (GVA) measure of output. For every £1 of activity on the railway system itself, a further £2.50 of income was generated elsewhere in the UK economy, as a result of supply chain links and other knock-on effects. This extra GVA comprised £17.8 billion in the rail supply sector, £0.9 billion in on-station retail and its suppliers, and £12.0 billion across the wider consumer-facing economy due to wage-funded employee spending (the so-called ‘induced impact’). The study, commissioned by the Railway Industry Association (RIA), also finds that both productivity and wages are higher than the economy-wide average, in both the rail transport system and rail supply sector. This is true not just for the UK as a whole, but for every one of its 12 constituent regions and countries. Finally, the analysis looks at the potential impact of extra public spending on the UK rail infrastructure. Looking further into the future, if rail infrastructure spending were 50% higher than the ‘baseline’ expectation, an extra 104,000 rail supply sector jobs would be supported throughout the five-year period 2025-29. Even if these jobs simply displaced other work, the economy would still benefit, because of their high-productivity, high-wage nature. In the more immediate future, the economy will still be recovering from the Covid pandemic, and will therefore have a degree of spare capacity. This means that any extra jobs created by an uplift in rail infrastructure investment could be genuinely additional, rather than displacing other employment. And this work could support more new jobs in turn, through induced effects. Here, we find that every extra £100 million per annum of spending on rail infrastructure would support an additional 1,400 well-paid jobs in the rail supply sector, plus a further 700 jobs across the wider consumer-facing economy.
Topic:
Economics, Infrastructure, Railways, and Travel
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

5. The socio-economic impact of cultivated meat in the UK

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
A report on the potential socio-economic benefits of the cultivated meat sector in conjunction with leading UK producer Ivy Farm Technologies. The cultivated meat industry is in its infancy, both in the UK and in most countries around the world. But it clearly presents significant opportunities for entrepreneurs, investors, and other commercial partners to exploit the global potential of a move away from conventional farming towards more sustainable methods. However, the UK industry is currently not able to take advantage of the commercial opportunities while it awaits regulatory approval. This report has sought to demonstrate that there is a strong economic rationale for allowing UK firms to move from research and development into production. As the report highlights, the UK cultivated meat market has the potential to grow into an industry with a total gross value added contribution to UK GDP of over £2 billion in 2030. The detailed analysis of the value of economic activity generated, the number of highly-skilled jobs created and supported, and the taxation revenue (up to £523 million) generated shows the industry has the potential to become an important sectoral driver of growth during the next decade.
Topic:
Economics, Job Creation, Socioeconomics, and Business Management
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

6. The Economic Impact of an Online Retail Sales Tax in the UK

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Amazon have commissioned Oxford Economics to produce an independent quantitative assessment of the economic implications of the introduction of an online sales tax in the UK. On 27 July 2020, HM Treasury (HMT) announced a call for evidence around the issue of a business rates review. Contained within this document was a consideration of alternative tax bases that could raise revenue for the Exchequer to compensate for any shortfall that might be created by business rates reform. One of the options proposed was an online sales tax (OST). In this context, Amazon have commissioned Oxford Economics to produce an independent quantitative assessment of the economic implications of the introduction of such a tax in the UK. We find that that the introduction of an OST would raise around £1.6 billion in government revenue. The burden of the tax would be split between consumers, online sales platforms, and upstream businesses. Our analysis shows that a majority of the tax’s burden will most likely be borne by consumers who could lose around £1.3 billion in welfare terms. The net inefficiencies due to the OST are estimated to be around £200 million (i.e., 13% of the revenue). The government’s fiscal options will need to be assessed against a range of economic as well as procedural criteria. In our assessment of the OST against the Treasury Select Committee’s principles of taxation, we found that the OST is distortive and also could potentially restrict SMEs from competing in the retail market. Further, the disproportionate impact on households in the lowest income decile and on economically weaker regions of the UK as well as the restrictive effect on the elderly and the disabled raise questions about the fairness of the OST.
Topic:
Economics, Digital Economy, Retail, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

7. Forty Years On New Perspectives on the 1981 Budget

Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
This year is the fortieth anniversary of the 1981 UK Budget Statement, one of the most controversial in British history. Geoffrey Howe, the Conservative Chancellor in Margaret Thatcher's first government, deliberately increased taxes during a vicious world recession after two years of tight monetary policy and punishingly high-interest rates, to tame high inflation. Inflation dropped, but the Budget also accelerated deindustrialization and spiralling unemployment, and turbocharged inequality. It has since indelibly shaped memories of ‘Thatcherism’. Forty years on, the current Conservative government is at a new fork in the road in its economic policy, grappling with pandemic spending legacies, the fallout from Brexit, and post-2008 economics, and with electoral pledges both to fiscal probity and to 'level up' the UK.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Governance, Budget, Unemployment, and Deindustrialization
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

8. Celebrating 20 Years of The Living Wage at Queen Mary University of London

Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
The Living Wage Campaign was launched by London Citizens in Walthamstow, East London, in 2001. Since then, it spread across the country and became a nationwide campaign led by the Living Wage Foundation. In 2006, Queen Mary became the first accredited university in the UK to pay all staff a real Living Wage, based on the cost of living, not just the government minimum. Queen Mary also improved working conditions so that every staff member at the university – regardless of rank or role – received a minimum of 30 days’ annual leave, access to sick pay, an annually negotiated pay increase, and an employer contribution pension scheme. In 2011, the University became a founding partner of the Living Wage Foundation. At this event to mark twenty years of the Living Wage Campaign, the Mile End Institute hosted a conversation with Matthew Bolton, the Executive Director of Citizens UK, to revisit the history of the Living Wage and the campaign to establish the living wage at Queen Mary. The event reflected on how the Living Wage is a vital strategy in the fight to end poverty in London and the important role of higher educational institutions in creating a fairer society.
Topic:
Economics, Poverty, Labor Issues, and Standard of Living
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

9. Banking Bailout Law: A Comparative Study of the United States, United Kingdom and the European Union

Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
Our expert panellists discussed Virág Blazsek’s book, Banking Bailout Law: A Comparative Study of the United States, United Kingdom and the European Union, which examines the different bank bailout and resolution techniques and tools through carefully selected case studies. The panel explored the pros and cons of the different legal and regulatory options identified by the book to reconstruct a regulatory framework that might better serve countries in future financial crises.
Topic:
Economics, European Union, Finance, Banking, and Bailout
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, North America, and United States of America

10. Britain's No-Deal Debacle? The Costs at Home and Likely Setbacks Abroad

Author:
John Ryan
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
For much of the past four years, and increasingly in the past few months, the United Kingdom has drifted in the direction of a No-Deal Brexit. In this Strategic Update, John Ryan explores the economic and political consequences for the United Kingdom of such a situation, as well as the domestic factors in Ireland and the United States that may provide unanticipated problems for the Johnson government.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Politics, Brexit, and Trade
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, Ireland, and United States of America

11. Covid 19 and post Brexit migration policy

Author:
Alberto Costa, Jonathan Portes, Lauren McLaren, Marina Fernandez Reino, and Tim Bale
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Our recent #IsolationInsight virtual event looked at what the UK’s post Brexit immigration regime could and should look like, considering also public opinion on immigration and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Speakers: Alberto Costa, Conservative MP for South Leicestershire Professor Jonathan Portes, senior fellow at the UK in a Changing Europe Professor Lauren McLaren, @University of Leicester Marina Fernandez Reino, Migration Observatory Chair: Professor Tim Bale, deputy director at the UK in a Changing Europe
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Politics, Immigration, Economy, Brexit, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

12. The economics of Brexit and Covid-19

Author:
Ben Chu, Jonathan Portes, Meredith Crowley, Gemma Tetlow, and Anand Menon
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Our recent #IsolationInsight event discussed the economics of the coronavirus pandemic and the UK’s departure from the EU. Speakers : Ben Chu, economics editor, @The Independent ; Professor Jonathan Portes, senior fellow, The UK in a Changing Europe ; Dr Meredith Crowley, senior fellow, The UK in a Changing Europe ; Dr Gemma Tetlow, chief economist, @Institute for Government ; Chair: Professor Anand Menon, director, The UK in a Changing Europe
Topic:
Economics, European Union, Brexit, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

13. Economics of Covid-19 and Brexit, revisited

Author:
Ben Chu, Meredith Crowley, Gemma Tetlow, Thomas Sampson, and Anand Menon
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
At this Isolation Insight webinar, panelists discussed the economics of the Covid-19 pandemic and the UK's exit from the EU, six months after lockdown began and with less than three months left of the transition period. Speakers: Ben Chu, economics editor, The Independent; Meredith Crowley, senior fellow, UK in a Changing Europe; Gemma Tetlow, chief economist, Institute for Government; Thomas Sampson, associate professor, London School of Economics; Chair: Anand Menon, director, UK in a Changing Europe
Topic:
Economics, European Union, Brexit, Transition, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

14. Global giants and local stars: How changes in brand ownership affect competition

Author:
Vanessa Alviarez, Keith Head, and Thierry Mayer
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
We assess the consequences for consumers in 76 countries of multinational acquisitions in beer and spirits. Outcomes depend on how changes in ownership affect markups versus efficiency. We find that owner fixed effects contribute very little to the performance of brands. On average, foreign ownership tends to raise costs and lower appeal. Using the estimated model, we simulate the consequences of counterfactual national merger regulation. The US beer price index would have been 4-7% higher without divestitures. Up to 30% savings could have been obtained in Latin America by emulating the pro-competition policies of the US and EU.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and Multinational Corporations
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Latin America, and Global Focus

15. The Projected Economic Impact of COVID-19 on the U.K. Creative Industries

Author:
Alice Gambarin and Osman Ismail
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
This report explores the short-term effects of Covid-19 on the financial sustainability of the creative industries in the UK. Along with the tourism sector, Creative Industries (CIs) are among the most affected by the current Covid-19 crisis. Creative workers, one of the more vulnerable sectors of the workforce, are already seeing devastating impacts on their income, not only in turnover terms, but also in their charitable contributions and sponsorship. Leaving behind the more fragile part of the sector could cause irreparable socio-economic damage. We find that the Creative Industries are projecting a combined £77bn turnover loss over the course of 2020 compared to 2019 (-31%). This is expected to translate into a GVA shortfall of £29bn in 2020 compared to 2019 (-26%), over half of which is in London. In 2020, CIs are projecting a 122,000 drop in employment among employees (despite the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme - JRS) and a further 287,000 job losses among self employed workers, compared to 2019 levels. In total, 409,000 CIs jobs are considered at risk, 27% of which are in London and 20% are in the South East.
Topic:
Economics, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Socioeconomics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

16. The economic impact of Boris Johnson’s Brexit proposals

Author:
Anand Menon
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The Prime Minister has set out a means of escaping the Brexit stalemate, but his new Brexit proposals have, as yet, not managed to overcome the impasse. What, though, would the plan mean for the UK economy? That is the question we seek to answer in what follows. As ever, we have been lucky enough to be able to draw on the skills and expertise of some of the leading experts in the field. The bulk of the work was done by Hanwei Huang, Jonathan Portes and Thomas Sampson, with contributions from Matt Bevington and Jill Rutter. Hanwei and Thomas used the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance trade model to carry out the modelling. We hope you find the report interesting and informative. Brexit is clearly about more than economics, but the economic impact of leaving the EU nevertheless merits careful scrutiny.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, European Union, Brexit, and Boris Johnson
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

17. The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty

Author:
Tarek A. Hassan, Laurence van Lent, Stephan Hollander, and Ahmed Tahoun
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Using tools from computational linguistics, we construct new measures of the impact of Brexit on listed firms in the United States and around the world: the share of discussions in quarterly earnings conference calls on costs, benefits, and risks associated with the UK’s intention to leave the EU. Using this approach, we identify which firms expect to gain or lose from Brexit and which are most affected by Brexit uncertainty. We then estimate the effects of these different kinds of Brexit exposure on firm-level outcomes. We find that concerns about Brexit-related uncertainty extend far beyond British or even European firms. US and international firms most exposed to Brexit uncertainty have lost a substantial fraction of their market value and have reduced hiring and investment. In addition to Brexit uncertainty (the second moment), we find that international firms overwhelmingly expect negative direct effects of Brexit (the first moment), should it come to pass. Most prominently, firms expect difficulties resulting from regulatory divergence, reduced labor mobility, trade access, and the costs of adjusting their operations post-Brexit. Consistent with the predictions of canonical theory, this negative sentiment is recognized and priced in stock markets but has not yet had significant effects on firm actions.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, Brexit, Global Political Economy, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
Britain, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and European Union

18. An Economic Analysis Of The Fall Of France In June 1940 Based On The Theory Of New Institutional Economics

Author:
Ioannis Salavrakos
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
he paper challenges the view that the fall of France in June 1940 is attributed to military errors of the French High Command and with the brilliant German offense in the Ardennes. The paper highlights that the French security strategy after the end of World War I failed because the country lacked the economic basis to implement its strategy. Thus the paper argues that the French endorsed an internal and external balancing strategy against Germany. The internal balancing strategy was associated with the ability of France to sustain powerful armed forces and obviously this was associated with high defense spending and a strong economy. The second part was associated with external balancing which was associated with the creation of alliances in Eastern Europe in order to block any German expansion. Again this was associated with strong economic relations between France and these states. This strategy was implemented during the 1919-1929 period however after the global economic crisis erupted the deterioration of the French economy made the continuation of this strategy impossible. Thus France was forced to follow a defensive strategy at the military level and the privileged bilateral economic relations with Eastern European countries were abolished and Germany replaced France as the major economic and trading partner of these states.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and World War II
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, France, and Germany

19. The role of Chinese finance in the City of London after Brexit

Author:
Sarah Hall
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
Abstract:
London is the largest western financial centre for financial transactions denominated in Renminbi (RMB) and has played an important role in shaping the rapid and recent internationalisation of Chinese finance. This policy brief discusses how to maintain this leading role post-Brexit.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Finance, Brexit, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:
Britain, China, and United Kingdom

20. The role of Chinese finance in the City of London after Brexit: Background Report

Author:
Sarah Hall
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
Abstract:
The competitiveness of London’s financial centre is shaped by the UK’s current adoption of EU regulations. The future development of London’s financial services sector is unknown as Britain’s relationship with Europe changes following the vote to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum. This uncertainty arises because even if Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement is adopted, the UK will then have to choose whether to converge, seek equivalence with or diverge from EU regulations for financial services. Research by Professor Sarah Hall (University of Nottingham) argues that the implications of these regulatory decisions will impact London’s financial services sector’s relationship with financial markets globally. Her research focuses on how London’s role as the largest western financial centre for financial transactions denominated in China’s currency, the renminbi, could be adversely affected following changes in the regulatory alignment between the UK and the EU following Brexit.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Finance, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:
Britain, China, and United Kingdom

21. The United Kingdom's Belt and Road Initiative strategy after Brexit: Background Report

Author:
Benjamin Barton
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
Abstract:
As China and President Xi Jinping signature foreign policy programme, the BRI has become in a very short space of the time one of the world’s largest and most active international infrastructure development drivers. The BRI is helping, in a significant manner, to meet the increasing demand for infrastructure development and upgrades in emerging markets – a trend that is unlikely to slow anytime time soon, especially given the initiative’s current importance to the Chinese government. For the British government (from here onwards ‘government’), although the UK is unlikely to be a prime destination for BRI projects (for now), the BRI stakes are high. Not only do BRI projects impact the economic wellbeing of a number of countries of strategic importance to the UK, but the government cannot remain passive in the emerging geopolitical context of infrastructure development and financing rivalry. In addition, in light of its relative post-Brexit geopolitical isolation, the government needs to adopt a firm and unequivocal political stance in dealing with its Chinese counterpart should the UK itself become the recipient of BRI projects.
Topic:
Economics, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Brexit, Multilateralism, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, United Kingdom, and Asia

22. The Impact of a 'No-Deal' Brexit on travel and Tourism

Author:
Simon Kyte, David Goodger, and Helen McDermott
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
A “no-deal” Brexit would cause a 5% drop in UK outbound travel and tourism trips in 2020, because of the stifled economic backdrop and impact of a weaker pound. Ireland and Spain would be the hardest hit from fewer UK visitors. In contrast, the weaker pound could mean that UK tourism inflows are 4% higher in a “no-deal” scenario, provided there is no travel disruption. But lower levels of domestic tourism mean that we would expect UK travel and tourism GDP to be 2% lower than our baseline forecast in 2020.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economics, Regional Cooperation, Tourism, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

23. Creating the North Atlantic Marketplace for Jobs and Growth: Three Paths, One Detour, A U-Turn, and the Road to Nowhere

Author:
Daniel S. Hamilton
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:
For decades the partnership between North America and Europe has been a steady anchor in a world of rapid change. Today, however, the transatlantic partnership itself has become unsettled and uncertain. Nowhere is this clearer than in the economic sphere. Voters across the United States and many parts of Europe have grown skeptical of open markets. Concerns about stagnant wages, widening income inequality, and pockets of stubbornly high unemployment have combined with fears of automation, digitization and immigration to swell economic insecurities on each side of the Atlantic. The election of Donald Trump as U.S. president and the decision by British citizens to leave the European Union have only added to transatlantic uncertainties. This state of division and mutual inwardness threatens the prosperity and ultimately the position of North America and Europe in the global economy and the broader global security system. This study charts possible paths by which Americans and Europeans can navigate this strange new world. It describes how the transatlantic economy is being transformed by domestic political uncertainties, the digital revolution, the changing nature of production, and the diffusion of global power and intensified global competition. It takes account of shifting trade relations among the United States, Canada and Mexico through NAFTA, and what Brexit and the rise of non-EU Europe may mean for the European Union and for transatlantic partnership.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Partnerships, Brexit, Economic Growth, Trump, and NAFTA
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Canada, North America, Mexico, United States of America, and European Union

24. Brexit and trade: Economic effects of Brexit

Author:
Philip McCann, Alison McGovern, Thomas Sampson, and Evan Davis
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Discussion of evidence on implications of alternative scenarios and how the economic consequences might play out over time and across different industries/regions. Speakers: Philip McCann, University of Sheffield Management School Alison McGovern, MP for Wirral South Thomas Sampson, The UK in a Changing Europe Chair: Evan Davis, Newsnight
Topic:
Economics, Brexit, Trade, and Industry
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

25. The Economic Impact of Gatwick Airport

Author:
Pete Collings and Osman Ismail
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Oxford Economics were appointed by the Gatwick Growth Board (GGB) to provide an independent assessment of Gatwick Airport's local, regional and national impact. The GGB was established in 2016 to examine the economic and social consequences of Gatwick Airport’s future plans for growth and expansion. The resulting study represents the most detailed assessment to date of Gatwick's economic footprint, and will provide evidence for the GGB's strategic work over the coming year. It finds that Gatwick Airport’s operations and services deliver very significant economic benefits for the UK, with its national GDP contribution reaching £5.3 billion in 2016, equivalent to 0.3% of the UK's total. Some 43 million passenger journeys passed through Gatwick during that year, underlining its position as a key component of national infrastructure. In addition, the report measures the Airport's wider impact, beyond its direct transport benefits to passengers and airlines. At the centre of a complex network of supply chains, Gatwick Airport enables activity throughout the Gatwick Diamond area, and beyond. The salaries sustained by employment at the Gatwick site also provide an invaluable contribution to the local consumer economy. The study also explores the potential for the Airport to deliver an even greater economic contribution in future.
Topic:
Economics, Tourism, Transportation, and Airline Companies
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

26. The Economic Impact of the University of the West of England

Author:
Andy Logan and Alice Gambarin
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
In total, UWE Bristol is estimated to have supported 8,280 jobs in the West of England, or one in every 79 people in employment in the area. Some 59 percent was as a result of the University’s expenditure, with the remainder of jobs stimulated by additional students’ and their visitors’ spending. The University contributed £400.1 million in gross value added to the West of England economy. This is equivalent to 1.3 percent of the local economy. As a result of this activity, in 2014/15, the University, its employees, additional students, and their visitors supported a £88.7million tax contribution to the Exchequer. The University had a major impact on businesses and the local economy through its role in the supply of graduate talent. A significant proportion of the thousands of graduates from the University annually are employed within the city-region, including many of those attracted to study at UWE Bristol from elsewhere.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Tax Systems, Local, Higher Education, and Public Service
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

27. Portfolio Diversification Between Developed And Less Developed Economies

Author:
Tirimisiyu F. Oloko
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
This study examines the hedging effectiveness of portfolio investment diversification between developed and developing economies; with focus on the Nigerian stock asset vis-à-vis the stock assets of the United States (US) and United Kingdom (UK). Its main contribution is in the analysis of optimal portfolio diversification using optimal portfolio weight (OPW) and optimal hedging ratio (OHR). Empirical findings show that the OPW and OHR are low, which indicates impressive potential gains from combining Nigerian stock assets in an investment portfolio with US and UK stock assets. In addition, exchange rate volatility is found to pose stern limitation on the potential benefits of this portfolio diversification arrangement. It is therefore recommended that the monetary authority in Nigeria should pursue policies towards reducing exchange rate volatility to the barest minimum. This will possibly attract more investors from developed economies who might be willing to combine Nigerian stock in their investment portfolio to minimize portfolio risk.
Topic:
Economics, Investment, Diversification, and Stock Markets
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, Nigeria, and United States of America

28. The Economic Impact of Bath Spa University

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Bath Spa University supported over 2,050 jobs in Bath and North East Somerset in 2014/15 – equivalent to one in every 49 jobs in the district. The University itself employs 966 people. This makes it the fifth largest employer in Bath and North East Somerset. It is considerably more than are employed by some of the city’s most famous institutions. In total, the University generated a value-added contribution of £93.9 million to the Bath and North East Somerset economy in 2014/15. This is equivalent to 2.0 percent of the district’s economic output. Of this, the University supported a £51.7 million contribution and the University’s additional students and their visitors the remaining £41.7 million contribution to GDP. In 2014/15, Bath Spa University made a total tax contribution of £21.1 million to the UK Exchequer. This could fund the Royal United Hospital’s and Royal National Hospital for Rheumatic Diseases’ running cost for about a month.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Labor Issues, Employment, Tax Systems, and Higher Education
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

29. Global Safe Haven Bonding Foreign and Domestic Owners of the U.S. Public Debt

Author:
Sandy Brian Hager
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:
This paper offers new theoretical and empirical insights to explain the resilience of the U.S. Treasuries market as a safe haven for global investment. Going beyond the standard systemic explanation, the paper highlights the importance of domestic politics in reinforcing the safe haven status of U.S. Treasury securities. In particular, the research shows how a formidable “bond” of interests unites domestic and foreign owners of the public debt and works to sustain U.S. power in global finance. Foreigners who now own roughly half of the U.S. public debt have something to gain from their domestic counterparts. The top one percent of U.S. households that dominate domestic ownership of the U.S. public debt have considerable political clout, thus alleviating foreign concerns about the creditworthiness of the U.S. federal government. Domestic owners of the U.S. public debt, in turn, have something to gain from the seemingly insatiable foreign appetite for U.S. Treasury securities. In supplying the U.S. federal government and U.S. households with cheap credit, foreign investors in U.S. Treasuries help to deflect challenges to the top one percent within the wealth and income hierarchy.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Political Economy, Inequality, and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and United Kingdom

30. Why the UK's Fiscal Charter is Doomed to Fail: An Analysis of Austerity Economics during the First and the Second Cameron Governments

Author:
Richard Murphy and Ronen Palan
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
The economic rationale for austerity policies harks back to a highly controversial proposals that originated in the 1990s known as 'expansionary fiscal contraction.' This paper explores these ideas relating to austerity and suggests that matters have not worked out as George Osborne expected. Furthermore, since the broad assumptions made by HM Treasury and the OBR remain the same in 2015 as they were in 2010, the paper presents an argument why austerity plans for the period 2016-2020 are also unlikely to succeed.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Austerity, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

31. Thomas Piketty's Capital and the Developing World

Author:
Nancy Birdsall
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
Thomas Piketty's Capital in the Twenty-First Century is a tour de force—a compelling and accessible read that presents an eloquent and convincing warning about the future of capitalism.* Capitalism, Piketty argues, suffers from an inherent tendency to generate an explosive spiral of increasing inequality of wealth and income. This inegalitarian dynamic of capitalism is not due to textbook failures of capitalist markets (for example, natural monopolies) or failures of economic institutions (such as the failure to regulate these monopolies), but to the way capitalism fundamentally works. Unless the spiral is controlled by far more progressive taxation than is now the norm, the political fallout could undermine the viability of the successful “social state” (p. 471) in the advanced economies, putting the democratic state itself at risk.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and France

32. The New European Parliament: Towards Economic Recovery

Author:
Michael Dauderstädt, Jose Enrique de Ayala, Domenec Ruiz Devesa, Vicente Palacio, and Vicente Palacio
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
The new European Parliament (EP) elected in May 2014 is facing a state of emergency in Europe. As 2014 draws to a close, austerity policies and the threat of populism are jeopardizing the present and the future of the European project. Unemployment rates in Europe are double the unemployment rate in the US and growth in the Eurozone is expected to fall below 1% in 2015. Although “the worst of the crisis” would appear to be behind us, Europe continues to be vulnerable to further economic shocks going forward. In fact, the EU could well be teetering on the brink of a third recession, the immediate threats on the horizon being current deflationary trends and a growing periphery crisis that is already manifest in Greece and could well spread to France and Italy. There is much uncertainty about the short- and medium-term future. It is not clear whether institutions such as the EP or the European Central Bank (ECB) will exercise their powers to the limit in order to counterbalance those of the governments of Member States and the Council, whether and when Germany will step up and assume a more active role in Eurozone stimulus, whether some kind of reform of the Lisbon treaty is in the cards or what kind of solutions will be provided to countries like Greece whose economies remain on the verge of collapse. ECB Governor Mario Draghi’s July 2014 speech in Jackson Hole, during which he strongly emphasized job creation rather dwelling on inflation and alluded to the possibility of implementing demand-side policies, structural reforms linked to a rise in 5 productivity, and enhancing competitiveness on a basis other than lower labour costs, was a very good sign. More recently, ECB authorities announced a new round of quantitative easing (QE) to take place in early 2015, and EC President Jean Claude Juncker made a commitment to devote €315 billion to infrastructure as part of his investment plan. Although we cannot expect a radical shift in economic policy any time soon, at least a minimal “Brussels consensus” if the EU is ever to put itself on the sure track towards a sustained recovery, structural reforms will need to be accompanied by fiscal stimulus. The time looks ripe for revising the economic policies that failed to achieve the objectives for which they were devised: pulling Europe out of the crisis and accelerating growth and employment. The time also looks ripe for a deep political and institutional shift: restoring the role of EU institutions – mainly the EP and the Commission – in forging the destinies of European citizens. If we accept the viewpoint that the EP is the institution that best embodies the concept of a European democracy built on the will of average citizens, the question we must subsequently ask ourselves whether the incoming EP elected in May 2014 will be able to bring about the change of tack that Europe needs. If viewed from a strictly quantitative perspective, the final outcome of the May elections was less damaging than originally feared. The European People’s Party once again won a majority (with 221 seats compared to 265 in 2009), and the breakdown for the rest of the parties and groups, in order of representation, was: the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (191/184); the Conservatives and Reformists (70/51); the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (67/84); the Greens (50/55); the European United Left (52/35), the Non-attached Members group (52/27) and the anti-Union Europe of Freedom and Democracy (48/32). Voter turnout across the EU fell very slightly from the 43% registered in 2009 to 42.5% in May, but did not break the crucial “psychological barrier” of 40%. 6 Table 1. Current distribution of seats and Parliamentary Groups in the EP (2014- 19 legislature) Source: Europarl http://www.europarl.europa.eu/elections2014-results/en/electionresults-2014.html If one takes a tally of only the seats now held by the traditional “big three” (the European People’s Party, the Socialists and the Liberal-Democrats), it is obvious that the pro-European forces still enjoy a solid majority in the EP – a very welcome majority in the sense that it signals that a majority of European voters continue to believe in a more united Europe, even in the context of the current economic, social and institutional crisis. The good news, therefore, is that there may be a sufficient “critical mass” in favour of going forward with the integration process rather than reversing it. Moreover, if the big three are successful in building ad hoc alliances with other parties such as the European Left and the Greens regarding a social and economic platform for a better Europe, it might even be possible to muster a majority willing to go even further in a federalist direction. However, these new distribution figures reveal only a small part of the entire story. Firstly, they should not keep us from recognizing the qualitative significance of the rise of a heterogeneous group of anti-integration and anti-European forces in the EP that represent a growing number of Europeans willing to cast their votes for Eurosceptic, nationalistic, populist, or xenophobic parties. The rising tide of Eurosceptics and Europhobia within the EP could well be perceived as a potential Trojan horse that could eventually undermine the stability of the EU and its very existence. Even if divided by 7 country, ideology, opportunity and other criteria and unable (or unwilling) to forge strong, sustained parliamentary coalitions, taken together, these forces hold 170 out of 751 seats in the current EP – an impressive 22%. The number of MEPs of the French National Front increased from 3 in 2009 to 24 in 2014, the new German right-wing antiEuro party Alternative for Germany (AFD) won 7 seats, and UKIP - which won the popular vote in Britain - moved up to 24 (from 13 in 2009). The situation is more worrying if we take into consideration that an overwhelming number of European citizens (almost 58%) did not go to the polls to vote. Had they chosen to make their voices heard, their vote would have supposed a turning point for Europe in one direction or another. Secondly, Euroscepticism and Europhobia are also having a considerable impact on the national politics of Member States (MS), and the most alarming examples of this phenomenon have surfaced in the major, “hard core” countries upon which European construction heavily depends such as France, Italy, Germany, or even for that matter, the UK. What these diverse parties ultimately have in common is their fierce defence of national sovereignty. They have reached the point of setting national policy agendas throughout the EU. As of the end of November 2014, the National Front was still ahead in voter intention polls in France, the AFD was gaining support according to polls conducted in Germany, and similar surveys in the UK showed that support for the anti-immigration UKIP was holding strong. The rise of UKIP is putting David Cameron’s government under intense pressure to hold a referendum on Britain’s exit from the EU. The victory of Matteo Renzi’s centre-left Democratic Party in the May EP elections does not obscure the fact that the fiercely populist and Eurosceptic Five-Star movement remains the largest party in the Italian Chamber of Deputies since February 2013. Sweden’s xenophobic Democratic Party could hold the key to governance in that country after the March 2015 elections. For the first time, a majority of citizens in both France and Germany regard the EU as a problem. Parallel to these developments, the anti-Muslim street demonstrations are becoming more and more frequent in Germany and the Netherlands. Should the economic situation in Europe worsen, the diverse range of tensions originating in northern and southern MSs, not to mention the tensions between them, could ratchet support for populist movements to dangerously high levels.
Topic:
Economics, Europe Union, Election watch, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Germany, and Brussels

33. The Economic Impact of Huawei in the UK

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
In September 2012, Huawei commited to spending £1.3 billion in the UK. Almost three years later, the global information and communications leader is well on its way to doing just that—and with vast social and economic significance. In this report, Oxford Economics explores the contribution of Huawei to the UK economy over the three years 2012-2014, and assesses the company’s recent UK expenditure record over the five years 2013-2017, split equally between investment and procurement.
Topic:
Economics, Communications, and Investment
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

34. Income Inequality Developments in the Great Recession

Author:
Tomas Hellebrandt
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The Great Recession, which cost tens of millions of jobs, a collapse of asset values around the world, and threatened the global financial system, has generated renewed concern over the long-standing issue of the fairness of the distribution of wealth and income in many societies. Economic inequality has increased in the United States and many other advanced economies over the past 20 to 30 years. This trend generated less worry in the boom years, when unemployment rates were low and cheap credit enabled consumers to borrow and maintain higher standards of living, masking the impact of growing income disparity on consumption patterns and perceptions of well-being.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Poverty, Social Stratification, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Ireland

35. A Tale of Two Britains: Inequality in the UK

Author:
Sarah Dransfield
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Inequality is a growing problem in the UK. Whilst austerity measures in Britain continue to hit the poorest families hardest, a wealthy elite have seen their incomes spiral upwards, exacerbating income inequality which has grown under successive governments over the last quarter of a century.
Topic:
Economics, Poverty, and Governance
Political Geography:
Britain and United Kingdom

36. Turkey's Energy Strategy and its Role in the EU's Southern Gas Corridor

Author:
Erkan Erdogdu
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) is a European Commission initiative aimed at facilitating the diversification of the routes and sources of gas imported into Europe. This paper is devoted to the analysis of Turkey's role in this initiative. Following a summary of the current economic and energy situation in Turkey, the paper presents recent developments in the SGC and an analysis of Turkey's role in the EU's SGC vision. It concludes that although the newly-built infrastructure within the SGC framework will probably serve Azerbaijani and Turkish interests first in their future relations with the EU, rather than the other way round, as had been initially hoped by the EU, it still addresses the EU's basic strategic interests, namely, the diversification of gas supply routes and suppliers.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, Turkey, Asia, and Netherlands

37. Publishing Government Contracts: Addressing Concerns and Easing Implementation (Brief)

Author:
Charles Kenny
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Government contracts regarding the use of public property and finances should be published by default. Many jurisdictions already require that contracts be made public in response to requests for the information; some now publish contracts proactively. Doing so helps new entrants compete in the market for public contracts, helps governments model their projects on other successful examples, and allows citizens greater insight into how their taxes are being spent. This brief, summarizing the conclusions of the Working Group on Government Contract Publication, provides a practical outline for reaping the benefits of open contracts while addressing legitimate concerns about costs, collusion, privacy, commercial secrecy, and national security.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

38. The Role of International Trade in the Rise of the New Zealand Dairy Industry from Its Beginnings to the Fonterra Era

Author:
Bruce Muirhead
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Since its widespread settlement by Europeans in the 1840s, New Zealand (NZ) has been an agricultural economy. As has been pointed out “there [has been] no serious challenge to the fundamental precept that the country's economy rested on an agricultural foundation” (Macdonald and Thomson 1987, 231), and dairy has been a significant focus of that base. Dairy production was introduced to New Zealand with the clear intent to establish New Zealand as an adjunct to the economic needs of Britain (Hawke 1985). Indeed, the closeness of the relationship between “the Britain of the south” and the metropolitan centre is one of the fundamental characteristics of any environmental history of NZ agriculture (Pawson 2008). This would persist in a material sense for more than a century, until the United Kingdom joined the European Community (EC) in 1973.
Topic:
Economics and Food
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, and New Zealand

39. The Quality of Official Development Assistance 2014

Author:
Nancy Birdsall, Homi Kharas, and Nabil Hashmi
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The Quality of Official Development Assistance (QuODA) measures donors' performance on 31 indicators of aid quality to which donors have made commitments. The indicators are grouped into four dimensions associated with effective aid: maximizing efficiency, fostering institutions, reducing the burden on partner countries, and transparency and learning. The 2014 edition finds that donors are overall becoming more transparent and better at fostering partner country institutions but that there has been little progress at maximizing efficiency or reducing the burden on partner countries. The World Bank's concessional lending arm, the International Development Association (IDA), performs very well in QuODA, ranking in the top 10 of 31 donors on all four dimensions. The United States ranks in the bottom half of all donors on three of the four dimensions of aid quality and last on reducing the burden on partner countries. The United Kingdom ranks in the top third on three of four dimensions of aid quality and scores particularly well on transparency and learning. The Global Fund ranks in the bottom third on fostering institutions but ranks in the top third on the other three dimensions of aid quality, including the top spot in maximizing efficiency.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States and United Kingdom

40. Labor Market Slack in the United Kingdom

Author:
David G. Blanchflower and David N. F. Bell
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper examines the amount of slack in the UK labor market and finds the downward adjustments made by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to both unemployment and underemployment invalid. Without evidence to support its assessment of the output gap, the MPC reduces the level of unemployment based on its claim that long-term unemployment does not affect wages. The authors produce evidence to the contrary and present arguments on why the MPC's halving of the level of underemployment in the United Kingdom is inappropriate. Bell and Blanchflower set out arguments on why they believe the level of slack is greater than the MPC calibrates. Consistent with that is the fact that real wages in the United Kingdom continue to fall.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

41. The Scottish Doughnut: A safe and just operating space for Scotland

Author:
Katherine Trebeck and Malcolm Sayers
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
We live on a fragile planet which is under increased human stress, to the extent that we are transgressing several of the planetary boundaries as mapped out by the Stockholm Resilience Centre (SRC). We share this planet with over seven billion fellow human beings, too many of whom face extraordinary challenges in building a life free of poverty, indignity, powerlessness and fear. While a small number of people are using the most resources, simultaneously too many are unable to lead lives in which they can flourish and live with dignity.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

42. The Urban Regeneration Experience of The United Kingdom: Lessons for Turkey

Author:
Fatih Eren
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
The United Kingdom (UK) is the most experienced country regarding the theories, policies, strategies and practices of urban regenerations in the world. This study firstly outlines UK’s urban regeneration experience and then discusses how Turkey can benefit from this experience in the best way. The global financial crisis emerged in 2008 forced the UK to go a change in its national urban regeneration policy. Therefore, this paper has been divided into two parts as UK’s urban regeneration policy before and after 2010.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, Financial Crisis, and Urban
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Turkey, and Asia

43. UK Peace Index

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
The United Kingdom Peace Index (UKPI), produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), provides a comprehensive measure of the levels of peacefulness within the United Kingdom from 2003 to 2012.1 It also provides an analysis of the socio-economic factors which are associated with peace as well as an estimate of the economic cost of violence and the benefits that would flow from increases in peace. This is the inaugural edition of the UK Peace Index. The UKPI is based on the Global Peace Index, the preeminent global measure of peacefulness which has been produced by IEP annually since 2007. The UKPI is the second national peace index in a series of national level studies and follows the United States Peace Index (USPI). Defining peace as the absence of violence or fear of violence, the UK Peace Index is based on a similar methodology to the USPI and enables comparability of the two indexes both at a national level and at more detailed local level.
Topic:
Crime, Economics, Education, Health, Employment, Violence, Peace, and Income
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

44. The US and Iran: Sanctions, Energy, Arms Control, and Regime Change

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman, Bryan Gold, and Chloe Coughlin-Schulte
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
US and Iranian strategic competition is heavily drive by four key factors–the success or failure of sanctions, the im0pact of that competition on the flow of Gulf energy exports, the success or failure of efforts to limit Iran's nuclear options and the broader prospect for arms control, and the prospects for accommodation of regime change. In recent years, the key variable has been ways in which sanctions on Iran have changed US and Iranian competition since the fall of 2011, and helped lead to a tentative set of Iranian agreements with the UN's P5+1--the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, namely United States, Russia, China, United Kingdom, and France, plus Germany--in November 2013.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Oil, Regime Change, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, Middle East, France, and Germany

45. Stabilizing Properties of Flexible Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis

Author:
Joseph E. Gagnon
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
There is a long-standing debate among economists and policymakers on the benefits of flexible versus fixed exchange rates (Klein and Shambaugh 2010). In principle, flexible exchange rates allow a country's central bank to focus on stabilizing economic growth and inflation, which are the ultimate goals of monetary policy. However, some argue that in practice central banks often do not use their powers wisely and it may be better to restrict their freedom by requiring them to peg their currency to that of an important trading partner. Others note that flexible exchange rates are far more volatile than fundamental factors can explain (Flood and Rose 1995), raising the possibility that they may introduce wasteful cross-sectoral fluctuations in economic activity. One common viewpoint is that flexible exchange rates may be fine for large countries but that the smallest countries are better off with fixed exchange rates (Åslund 2010).
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, and United Kingdom

46. Truth and Lies about Poverty: Ending comfortable myths about poverty

Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
In 1753 John Wesley, the founder of Methodism said, "So wickedly, devilishly false is that common objection, 'They are poor, only because they are idle'". Yet today many churchgoers and members of the general public alike have come to believe that the key factors driving poverty in the UK are the personal failings of the poor – especially 'idleness'. How did this come about?
Topic:
Security, Economics, Poverty, Social Stratification, and Sociology
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

47. Fighting the Fed

Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Since the US Federal Reserve signalled that a turn in the interest rate cycle may be on the horizon, UK and to a lesser extent Eurozone interest rates have tracked US rates higher. But the UK and Eurozone economies are less well placed than the US to cope with higher interest rates. Simulations carried out on our Global Economic Model show that higher rates would be particularly harmful to the UK economy's embryonic recovery. In an attempt to stem the rise in interest rates, the Bank of England and the ECB have introduce forward guidance but with little, if any, success. Markets do not seem convinced by the Bank of England's commitment to forward guidance and are testing its resolve. It seems likely that over time both central banks may have to strengthen their forward guidance, in the case of the Bank of England by augmenting it with further quantitative easing.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and Europe

48. UK housing market: bellows to a bubble?

Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The housing market is recovering, according to recent price and activity data. Post-crisis price corrections were smaller in the UK than in the US and much of Europe, and demand is now being bolstered by the government's Funding for Lending and Help to Buy schemes. This has given rise to some worries that the UK is in danger of inflating another house price bubble. While housing supply is very tight, we are not convinced that these schemes will have enough impact on demand to cause prices to take off.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and Europe

49. Towards a Deeper EMU: An assessment of political divisions within the EU

Author:
Juha Jokela
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Policymakers, observers and the media have referred to a vast number of divisions in crisis-torn Europe. The EU is divided between north and south or creditors and debtors. Some have emphasised the emerged division between anti-EU and pro- EU forces. Significantly, these divisions are also manifested within the eurozone, in the form of the current differences between the French and German views, and the increasing role of the populist movements in many euro countries. Yet others have highlighted the boundary between the eurozone and the rest of the EU, and suggested that the euro countries now form the core of the Union. Relatedly, some of the non-euro members are distancing themselves from the EU – most notably the UK – while many others aim to secure their influence in the Union, even if euro membership may have been put on the back burner.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Germany

50. UK and EU-Iran Relations

Author:
Mohammad Javad Bakhtiari and Fariba Hossein Nia Salimi
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:
The article tries to examine Britain's place in EU's policymaking towards Iran. Having in mind the importance of the EU in international stages and also in economic and political matters, the following article has shed light on the ups and downs of Iran's relations with the UK as one of the important EU-nation states and has concluded that an effective but careful and logical relationship with EU member states could expand the space of more collaborations and in this regard Iran can utilize EU's capacities. Britain in contrary to the US has avoided military tools and has chosen a negotiating policy toward Iran and has assured other member states of these negotiations. Iran should choose a definite strategy towards EU based on having a complete knowledge of each member – state and their capabilities and special potentials in cooperation with Iran.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
Britain, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and Iran

51. London 2012 - Medal Projection - Medaillenvorausberechnung

Author:
Wolfgang Maennig and Christian Wellbrock
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
We project the medal number and medal ranking for the Olympic Games in London in 2012. The largest relative increase is predicted for Brazil (80% more medals) and the UK (+28%).UK will continue to rank 4th. The largest decreases in medal numbers are predicted for Australia (-13%, but remains in 5th place) and the USA (-13%, remains No. 1). Germany should retain a rank of 6th and will win 38 medals (compared to 41 in 2008).
Topic:
Economics, Sports, and Olympics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and London

52. Retail 2022: How the Economist Intelligence Unit sees the retail landscape changing over the next decade

Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
Markets of the future—China, India, Brazil and Russia—will become the dominant retail markets l Africa, the final frontier—as BRIC opportunities diminish retailers will look to Africa as a driver of growth l Virtual marketplace— e-commerce, m-commerce and s-commerce—will transform the global retail landscape l Bricks and mortar will fight back as traditional retailers respond to change by integrating online with physical store offerings l Convenience will be king as shopping habits evolve into a multichannel approach rather than “one-stop shopping” l UK focus: polarised shopping habits could continue even when incomes recover, leading to an even greater squeeze on mid-market retail by 2022.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Science and Technology, and Communications
Political Geography:
Russia, China, United Kingdom, India, and Brazil

53. Regulatory Quality in the European Commission and the UK: Old questions and new findings

Author:
Andrea Renda, Oliver Fritsch, Claudio M. Radaelli, and Lorna Schrefler
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper examines the quality of impact assessments in the European Commission and the United Kingdom for the period 2005-2010. We coded 477 impact assessments for the UK and 251 for the European Commission, using a detailed scorecard - adjusted to reduce the bias evidenced by previous usages of this instrument.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

54. The Perfect Storm: Economic stagnation, the rising cost of living, public spending cuts, and the impact on UK poverty

Author:
Moussa Haddad
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The combination in the UK of economic stagnation and public spending cuts is causing substantial hardship to people living in poverty. This amounts to a 'Perfect Storm' of falling incomes, rising prices, public service cuts, benefit cuts, a housing crisis, and weak labour rights. By making different political choices, the government can both protect people in poverty and help to stimulate economic recovery in the short term, and set the UK on the way towards economic, social and environmental sustainability in the long term.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Poverty, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

55. Exploring BME Maternal Poverty: The financial lives of ethnic minority mothers in Tyne and Wear

Author:
Chris Warburton Brown
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This report has grown out of Oxfam's commitment to tackling the poverty of black and minority ethnic (BME) women in the UK. It aims to improve our understanding of BME mothers' experiences of poverty, to address the way in which the poverty of BME mothers is hidden from conventional data collection, to raise awareness amongst policy-makers and practitioners of the material circumstances of low-income BME mothers, and to improve the ways in which poor BME women are supported to secure greater assets and resources.
Topic:
Economics, Gender Issues, and Poverty
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

56. A Generalized Fact and Model of Long-Run Economic Growth: Kaldor Fact as a Special Case

Author:
Daniel Danxia Xie
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper provides new evidence on the long-run relationship between economic growth and labor's share in national income, based on a comprehensive panel data set for 123 countries from 1950 to 2004. Xie's primary finding is that labor's share follows a cubic relationship with real GDP per capita over the long process of development. At the beginning of the modern economic growth process, the share of labor in national income first decreases until an initial threshold is reached. After that, labor's share keeps increasing until the country's GDP per capita reaches a second threshold before falling again. Xie argues that these dynamics apply not only to the less developed countries in the postwar years, but also to the advanced countries like the United States and the United Kingdom during their early economic take-offs, starting in the late 18th and 19th century, respectively. Finally, he proposes a two-sector constant elasticity of substitution (CES)-type growth model and simulate the model to replicate and explain the possible mechanism behind such a nonlinear pattern of movements in labor's share.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States and United Kingdom

57. Britain, Ireland and Schengen: Time for a smarter bargain on visas

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
For the present UK government, full accession to the Schengen area, a passport- free travel area covering most of Europe, is a red line that it will not cross. Ireland shares a common travel area and land border with the UK and is also bound by this decision. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that the UK, along with Ireland, is suffering serious economic and reputational costs as a result of its separate visa and border management policies.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, and Ireland

58. The Liquidation of Government Debt

Author:
Carmen M. Reinhart
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Historically, periods of high indebtedness have been associated with a rising incidence of default or restructuring of public and private debts. A subtle type of debt restructuring takes the form of "financial repression." Financial repression includes directed lending to government by captive domestic audiences (such as pension funds), explicit or implicit caps on interest rates, regulation of cross-border capital movements, and (generally) a tighter connection between government and banks. In this paper, the authors describe some of the regulatory measures and policy actions that characterized the heyday of the financial repression era. In the heavily regulated financial markets of the Bretton Woods system, several restrictions facilitated a sharp and rapid reduction in public debt/GDP ratios from the late 1940s to the 1970s. Low nominal interest rates help reduce debt servicing costs while a high incidence of negative real interest rates liquidates or erodes the real value of government debt. Thus, financial repression is most successful in liquidating debts when accompanied by a steady dose of inflation. Inflation need not take market participants entirely by surprise and, in effect, it need not be very high (by historical standards). For the advanced economies in Reinhart and Sbrancia's sample, real interest rates were negative roughly half of the time during 1945–80. For the United States and the United Kingdom, their estimates of the annual liquidation of debt via negative real interest rates amounted on average to 3 to 4 percent of GDP a year. For Australia and Italy, which recorded higher inflation rates, the liquidation effect was larger (around 5 percent per annum).
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States and United Kingdom

59. Austerity ahead: How will a conservative victory change Spanish politics?

Author:
Teemu Sinkkonen
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The electoral defeat suffered by the ruling Socialist Party (Partido Socialista Obrero Español, PSOE) in the municipal elections and the prolonged financial crisis has forced Prime Minister Zapatero to call an early general election on 20 November. The Conservative People's Party (Partido Popular, PP) is ahead in the polls by a clear margin and is likely to gain an absolute majority in the parliament. The economic outlook for Spain looks bleak, which means that the new government will have to create new jobs quickly and push through harsh and unpopular reforms, particularly regarding the fiscal and administrative structures. The Indignados protest movement is gaining support, and looks set to challenge the legitimacy of the system and force the future government to produce speedy results. Spain is expected to enhance its role in international politics through pragmatic bilateral relations. In particular, relations with the US seem to be warming up, while Spain can turn to the UK and Poland in the EU for companionship
Topic:
Debt, Democratization, Economics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and Spain

60. Is the recovery sustainable in the US and Europe?

Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Following the worst recession since the 1930s, the US, UK and Eurozone economies have all now returned to positive growth. With the boost from policy stimulus and the inventory cycle peaking, however, this raises questions about the sustainability of the current rebound. The analysis presented here suggests that the recoveries in both the US and Europe will be relatively muted compared to recent historical experience. The US is likely to be the growth leader, reflecting the more dynamic nature of its economy and financial sector. A key uncertainty relates to how labour markets will perform during the recovery phase. To date, the rise in US unemployment been particularly severe when compared to the experience of Europe. In light of the sharp falls in European productivity, we expect employment gains in Europe to be more muted in the recovery phase than in the US. The performance of residential real estate markets also remains important. Home prices in the US are now close to fair value by most metrics, suggesting that the correction in prices is likely to be bottoming out. In Europe, only Spain and Ireland appear to be in the midst of substantial housing market corrections. Commercial real estate markets are also facing ongoing corrections in many countries. While conditions in the US and Eurozone may deteriorate further, commercial property values appear to be stabilising in the UK following earlier sharp declines. The ability of the banking sector to finance the economic recoveries in the US and Europe remains a key risk to the growth outlook. As the process of absorbing credit losses and rebuilding capital is likely to be protracted, the normalisation of lending standards is likely to take longer than following recent recessions. This is a particular concern for the Eurozone, where bank funding is more important for companies. Whether domestic demand in the US and Europe recovers will also depend on whether private sector deleveraging has further to run. The destruction of household net wealth in the US suggests that the personal savings rate has further to rise, whereas there no longer appears to be a pressing need for households in the UK and Eurozone to consolidate their balance sheets. In contrast, non-financial corporations in the US are in a stronger financial position than their European peers, having not increased debt levels as rapidly during the credit boom. Risks around public finances have received the most attention in recent weeks. In particular, the adjustments underway in Greece pose a risk of potential contagion from sovereign credit risk that could threaten growth on both sides of the Atlantic.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and Europe

61. Think big. Go small. Adapting business models to incorporate smallholders into supply chains

Author:
David Bright, Don Seville, and Lea BorkenHagen
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Incorporating smallholders into the supply chain allows a company to tell consumers how their purchasing choices can improve the lives of men and women farmers. Companies that incorporate smallholders equitably into their supply chains – and communicate their action through their brands – can capture new customers and gain greater loyalty from existing ones.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Third World, and Food
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

62. The Realities and Relevance of Japan's Great Recession: Neither Ran nor Rashomon

Author:
Adam S. Posen
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Japan's Great Recession was the result of a series of macroeconomic and financial policy mistakes. Thus, it was largely avoidable once the initial shock from the bubble bursting had passed. The aberration in Japan's recession was not the behaviour of growth, which is best seen as a series of recoveries aborted by policy errors. Rather, the surprise was the persistent steadiness of limited deflation, even after recovery took place. This is a more fundamental challenge to our basic macroeconomic understanding than is commonly recognized. The UK and US economies are at low risk of having recurrent recessions through macroeconomic policy mistakes—but deflation itself cannot be ruled out. The United Kingdom worryingly combines a couple of financial parallels to Japan with far less room for fiscal action to compensate for them than Japan had. Also, Japan did not face poor prospects for external demand and the need to reallocate productive resources across export sectors during its Great Recession. Many economies do now face this challenge simultaneously, which may limit the pace of, and their share in, the global recovery.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and United Kingdom

63. EU-India strategic partnership: Taking the stock

Author:
Alok Rashmi Mukhopadhyay
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of Foreign Policy Studies, University of Calcutta
Abstract:
The prevalent perception of the European Union (EU) in India is predominantly constructed by the British and American media. At the time of a global economic downturn, its ripple effects on the continent especially on the 'PIIGS' (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) and an imminent crack in the Eurozone have been the debate of the day. In a recent article in The National Interest, James Joyner, has however examined this genre of 'Europe's obituary'. Making a comparison with EU's transatlantic sibling, he identifies three errors in this type of analyses, 'treating the EU as if it were a nation-state, regarding anything less than utopia as a failure, and projecting short-term trends long into the future'. However Joyner is also right when he describes the EU as 'a confusing array of overlapping treaty commitments'.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, America, Europe, India, Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Ireland

64. The Central Banker's Case for Doing More

Author:
Adam S. Posen
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In this policy brief I present my view on the role of monetary policy in our recovery and whether the major central banks in the United Kingdom and beyond should be doing more in the coming months. Of course, every central bank's policysetting committee has to make its own assessment of the right policy measures for its economy, based on its own forecastand the mandate legally set for it. Thus, I am not presuming to offer a “one size fits all” prescription for central bankers beyond the United Kingdom. I would like, however, to try to give some general assessment of the common challenges we face, and what I believe to be the appropriate monetary policy response, barring special circumstances. Not that there will be any doubt about it, but for the record, these are solely my own personal views.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

65. Longevity, Capital Formation and Economic Development

Author:
Qiong Zhang
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Many researchers have concluded that longer life expectancies prompt increased investment in education, as a prolonged labor supply raises the rate of return on education. Besides explaining the empirical evidence behind this conclusion (at an absolute level), there is another issue to be discussed: does time spent in studying and working increase proportionally with higher longevity? Building on an extended life-cycle model with an assumption on a more realistic distribution of life cycle mortality rates, this article considers dynamic effects of prolonging longevity on economic development by directly introducing changes in longevity into the economy, which is more preferable than comparative static analysis that relies on changes in relevant parameters. It shows that prolonged life expectancy will cause individuals to increase their time in education but may not warrant rises in labor input. Later we show that higher improvement rate of longevity will also promote economic growth, even we exclude the mechanism of human capital formation, and only consider growth effects of higher improvement rate of life expectancy from physical capital investment.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Education, Health, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States and United Kingdom

66. Toward Reconciliation in Afghanistan

Author:
Michael O'Hanlon
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Washington Quarterly
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
How can we make sense of where the United States is in Afghanistan today? A poor country, wracked by 30 years of civil war, finds itself at the mercy of insurgents, terrorists, and narco-traffickers. NATO's economy-of-force operation there has attempted to help build a nation with very few resources. Yet, overall levels of violence remain relatively modest by comparison with other violent lands such as the Congo, Iraq, and even Mexico. Economic growth is significant and certain quality of life indicators are improving, though from a very low base. The United States is committed to Afghanistan and over the course of 2009 will roughly double its troop strength there. The international community is also seriously committed, with a number of key countries such as Canada, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom fighting hard and applying solid principles of counterinsurgency.
Topic:
NATO and Economics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, United Kingdom, Canada, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mexico, and Netherlands

67. Beyond Convergence versus Path Dependence: The Internationalization of Industrial Relations at Ford Germany and Britain (1967–1985)

Author:
Thomas Fetzer
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
For a long time scholars of industrial relations tended to associate notions of internationalization with the debate about the cross-border convergence of industrial relations systems. Convergence versus path dependence was thus a key controversy in industrial relations studies for decades. This debate was mirrored in multinational companies when their attempts to “export” industrial relations practices to foreign subsidiaries encountered host country influences that constrained such attempts. In recent years many scholars shown the need for a wider and more complex analysis of internationalization processes that goes beyond the convergence/path dependence dichotomy. Building on this development, the paper presents a historical case study of the impact of cross-border subsidiary integration on industrial relations at Ford Germany and Ford UK between 1967 and 1985. I argue that convergence and path dependence need to be combined with a third “differential internationalization” approach that reflects the country-specific gradual change that emerges from subsidiary integration. The paper concludes by reflecting on the implications of the case study for contemporary internationalization debates.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, and Germany

68. The global financial crisis: will state emergency measures trigger international investment disputes?

Author:
Anne Van Aaken and Jürgen Kurtz
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Several developed countries have introduced emergency measures to mitigate the effects of the Global Financial Crisis, including Australia, Germany, Ireland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Although the measures taken are still undergoing changes by the executive branch and are thus a “moving target”, our survey reveals early evidence of differentiation between foreign and domestic actors in the emergency plans adopted by this sample grouping. It is this differentiation that may give rise to liability as breaching guarantees against discrimination of foreign investors under international investment law.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, International Affairs, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, and Ireland

69. A Solution for Europe's Banking Problem

Author:
Adam S. Posen and Nicolas Véron
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Since mid-2007, public authorities in the European Union have broadly met the challenge of ensuring a functional degree of liquidity and preventing financial meltdown. The Eurosystem has even been ahead of the curve compared with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England in discounting early on a wide variety of assets to a range of counterparties. However, despite unprecedented central bank intervention, extensive government guarantees since October 2008, and macroeconomic assistance (with the International Monetary Fund) to the European Union's weakest member states, the underlying state of continental Europe's banking industry remains very fragile.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and Europe

70. The economic contribution of ports to the UK economy

Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Ports are vital for the health of the UK economy and the movement of its population. They are gateways into the UK for trade and travel. Over 95% of UK imports and exports by volume and 75% by value pass through the country's ports. In terms of tonnage handled, the UK ports sector is the largest in Europe. In 2007, UK ports handled 580 million tonnes of freight. In 2007, 24.8 million international sea passengers went through UK ports. Nearly three quarters of journeys were to France. Another 14 per cent were to the Republic of Ireland. In 2007, 24.2 million domestic sea passengers traveled between ports in the UK. Sea crossings comprised 4.0 million of these journeys. Inter island journeys the remaining 20.2 million. Of which 10.7 million trips were between Hampshire and Isle of Wight and 8.0 million between the Scottish islands.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

71. An Indispensable Relationship: Economic Linkages between the UK and the rest of the European Union

Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Business for New Europe has requested Oxford Economics to undertake a study detailing the economic ties between the UK and the rest of the European Union (EU), and where possible, quantify them according to a number of parameters such as trade, labour force, tourism, FDI, portfolio investments and banking linkages. In the context of the current economic situation, there is a growing need for increased economic integration and cooperation between partner countries. Therefore, it is particularly relevant to review the importance of the economic links between the UK and the rest of the EU. These inter-relations have come to the fore since the outbreak of the financial crisis. Analysing the impact of the credit crunch on UK-EU relations is not within the scope of this report.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

72. The Economic Outlook for London

Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The present recession, which had its origins in the global financial crisis that began to unfold in mid-2007, has hit London's economy hard. And in the face of ongoing financial sector constraints, a debt overhang and rising unemployment, a strong bounce in the immediate future – of the kind seen in the wake of the early1990s recession – cannot be realistically expected. Nevertheless, Oxford Economics' forecasts show the recovery in the capital gaining traction by 2011, with growth into the medium term matching the robust performance of the decade prior to the recession. We expect growth over the period 2011-2019 to outstrip that of the rest of the UK and of most comparable cities across the western world.
Topic:
Economics and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and London

73. Combating illicit financial flows from poor countries. Estimating the possible gains

Author:
Jakob Vestergaard and Martin Højland
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
If the UN Millennium Development Goals are to be reached by 2015, development aid needs to be tripled – which is most unlikely. Instead, countries should unite in a concerted multilateral effort to combat illicit financial flows: for every dollar poor countries receive in development assistance, more than eight dollars are illegally transferred back to rich countries, most of it in order avoid local taxation. Effectively combating these illicit financial flows would generate more financial resources for development than foreign aid is likely to ever do – and help build a sustainable tax base in developing countries for the benefit of future development efforts.
Topic:
Corruption, Crime, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, London, Belgium, Switzerland, Ireland, and Luxembourg

74. NATO and the Economic and Financial Crisis

Author:
Keith Hartley and Binyam Solomon
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
These is some consensus among economic forecasters and international economic organizations that the world economy is stabilizing after the worst global contraction since the end of the Second World War. While it is difficult to ascertain empirically whether the massive fiscal policy support played a role or not, the improving credit conditions and the return of demand in the housing market in North America and the UK point to some evidence that the stimulus is providing the necessary short-term boost. Nonetheless, there remain significant challenges that may constrain a quick recovery including the decline in household wealth (debt-laden consumers rebuilding their savings), persistent unemployment and deleveraging (decreasing the amount of debt a firm holds by paying it off) in the financial system together with future long-term prospects of inflation.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and North America

75. Financial Impacts of Climate Change: Implications for the EU Budget

Author:
Christian Egenhofer, Arno Behrens, and Jorge Núñez Ferrer
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This study focuses on the financial resources needed to fight global climate change and the implications for the EU budget. The authors apply four different methodologies to estimate global financing requirements and attempt to determine the resources that will be needed at the EU level to meet the EU's climate change objectives. The study analyses current climate change spending of the EU budget, identifies shortcomings and indicates possibilities for correcting them. It also assesses the potential of the EU emissions trading scheme to raise additional resources to finance coordinated actions at the EU level aimed at fighting climate change. Finally, it provides three case studies of national public expenditure related to climate change in Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, and Environment
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and Europe

76. From South Asian to Diaspora: Missing Women and Migration

Author:
Matthew McCartney and Aisha Gill
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
The modernisation paradigm is here tested and found wanting in a very particular context; the experience of the migrant. Women in South Asia have a biologically abnormal chance of mortality from conception until their mid-30s. This phenomenon is thought to be related to a range of economic and cultural factors, which include sex selective abortion and gender-biased allocations of health care and nutrition. There is scant research on the manifestation of this phenomenon after migration to developed countries. The modernisation paradigm suggests that migrants will quickly adopt the norms of the host developed country. Some of the proximate causes that generate the excess mortality of females in South Asia are, indeed, not likely to be operational in a developed country; namely, female infanticide and deprivation of nutrition and health care for girls. However, the cultural preference for sons in South Asia has persisted following migration, while the specific way in which this preference is satisfied has changed: sex-selective abortion is replacing post-natal neglect of, and harm done to, girls and women. In some cases, further empirical work is required if the issue of how South Asian practices of gender discrimination might be manifest in the behaviour of migrants to the UK.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, Gender Issues, Migration, and Poverty
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and South Asia

77. Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Export Prices: Assessing Some Cross-Country Evidence

Author:
Robert Vigfusson, Nathan Sheets, and Joseph Gagnon
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
A growing body of empirical work has found evidence of a decline in exchange rate pass-through to import prices in a number of industrial countries. Our paper complements this work by examining pass-through from the other side of the transaction; that is, we assess the exchange rate sensitivity of export prices (denominated in the exporter's currency). We first sketch out a streamlined analytical model that highlights some key factors that determine pass-through. Using this model as reference, we find that the prices charged on exports to the United States are more responsive to the exchange rate than is the case for export prices to other destinations, which is consistent with results in the literature suggesting that import price pass-through in the U.S. market is relatively low. We also find that moves in the exchange rate sensitivity of export prices over time have been significantly affected by country and region-specific factors, including the Asian financial crisis (for emerging Asia), deepening integration with the United States (for Canada), and the effects of the 1992 ERM crisis (for the United Kingdom).
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Asia

78. The State of American Cities

Author:
Bruce Katz and Alan Berube
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
This summary report provides an overview of The State of American Cities. It addresses four major questions that are explored in further detail in the topic report: What are the current trends and drivers of change in US cities? What factors measure and explain city success in the U.S? What policies have promoted the success of US cities? What can English cities learn from this? The report argues that whilst the US and England are marked by significant cultural and political differences in their views on cities, the two nations are undergoing similar economic and demographic transitions that pave the way for a useful comparative policy dialogue on urban areas.
Topic:
Civil Society and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, America, Europe, and England

79. The Costs and Benefits of Front-loading and Predictability of Immunization

Author:
Owen Barder and Ethan Yeh
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
How can the international community save more children's lives faster and more effectively in the 21st century? This Working Paper analyzes the extent to which “frontloading” and predictable vaccine funding, as proposed by the International Finance Facility for Immunization (IFFIm), is more effective in impacting vaccine coverage than spending vaccine funds equally throughout the lives of projects. The IFFIm is an initiative of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI), and supported by the governments of the United Kingdom, France, Sweden, Italy, Spain and Norway. An initial IFFIm investment of $4 billion is expected to prevent 5 million child deaths by 2015, and more than 5 million future adult deaths. Using a stylized model, the authors quantify the positive and negative effects of predictable vaccine funds and frontloading, and finds IFFIm's approach can increase the impact of vaccine coverage by 22%. This is because stable and long-term financing allows vaccine manufacturers and countries to plan for long periods of time, knowing that resources will be available. Front-loading helps to reduce the spread of disease and to immunize large groups of people faster.
Topic:
Economics, Health, Human Welfare, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Norway, France, Spain, Italy, and Sweden

80. Concentration among the Rich

Author:
Anthony B. Atkinson
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to examine the concentration of wealth among the group of top wealth holders, defined as those with wealth in excess of a high cut off. The paper begins by considering the definition of this cut off, analogous to the definition of a poverty line at the other end of the distribution. It then considers what can be learned about the proportion classified as 'rich' and about the concentration among the rich from four non-survey sources: journalists' lists, estate data, wealth tax data, and investment income tax data. It starts off from the world's billionaires in 2006, but is particularly concerned with changes over time within countries, taking France, Germany, the UK, and the USA, to illustrate the different sources.
Topic:
Civil Society, Demographics, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, France, and Germany

81. The Formation of a Mercantilist State and the Economic Growth of the United Kingdom 1453-1815

Author:
Patrick Karl O'Brien
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
New institutional economics lacks a theory of state formation which could help us to deal with the mega question of why some states became more efficient than others at establishing and and sustaining institutions. Some kind of middle range theory could be formulated based upon historical case studies. This paper considers the case of Britain and as its title suggests degrades the myth of the United Kingdom as the paradigmn example of liberalism and laisser faire. In making its precocious transition to and industrial market economy the kingom's history is best represented as a case of successful mercantilism.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, and Europe

82. Has EMU Had Any Impact on the Degree of Wage Restraint?

Author:
Adam S. Posen and Daniel Popov Gould
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This working paper investigates the European Monetary Unification's (EMU) effect on wage restraint—the degree to which wage increases do or do not exceed productivity growth. We find in cross-sectional investigations that wage restraint either is unchanged or has increased following EMU in the vast majority of countries. This finding contradicts the predictions of a widely cited family of models of coordination of labor market bargaining. In particular, one would have expected Germany to display the greatest decline in wage restraint post-EMU under these models, but in our time-series analysis we find no indication of such a decline. The overall shift toward greater wage restraint is consistent with the models that emphasize the gains from monetary credibility. The time-series evidence on Italy, which shows a significant increase in wage restraint after eurozone entry, also supports this view. That said, the increase in wage restraint in the eurozone is matched by that associated with the increase in credibility seen in the United Kingdom and Sweden after their adoption of inflation targeting post-1992.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Germany, and Sweden

83. Natural Unemployment, the Role of Monetary Policy and Wage Bargaining: A Theoretical Perspective

Author:
Stefan Collignon
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper models unemployment as a general equilibrium solution in labor and capital markets, while the natural rate hypothesis explains unemployment simply as a partial equilibrium in the labor market. It is shown that monetary policy can have long-run effects by affecting required returns on capital and investment. If monetary policy is primarily concerned with maintaining price stability, the interaction between wage bargaining and the central bank's credibility as an inflation fighter becomes a crucial factor in determining employment. Different labor market institutions condition different monetary policy reactions. With centralized wage bargaining, a central bank mandate focusing primarily on price stability is sufficient. With an atomistic labor market, the central bank must also consider output as a policy objective.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and Europe

84. Skill formation in Britain and Germany: Recent developments in the context of traditional differences

Author:
Steffen Hillmert
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper proposes a comparison of skill formation in Germany and Britain over the last decades. Taking historical trends into account, the two cases can be regarded as representing different types of skill production regimes. Institutional features include a relatively low degree of standardization of training and a larger amount of on-the-job training in Britain. In Germany, post-compulsory training has been conducted predominantly within the dual system of vocational training, underlining the vocational specificity of a large part of the labor market. As a consequence, international differences in individual skill investments, transitions from school to work and other life-course patterns can be observed. At least in Britain, however, the situation seems to have changed considerably during the 1990s. The paper argues that the divergence in more recent developments can still be understood as an expression of historical path dependency given the traditional connections between the post-compulsory training system and the broader societal context in which it is embedded. These concern, in particular, links with the system of general and academic education as the basis for – and also a possible competitor with – vocational training; links with the labor market as they are indicated by specific skill requirements and returns to qualifications; and, links with the order of social stratification in the form of the selective acquisition and the social consequences of these qualifications. The links manifest themselves as typical individual-level consequences and decisions. Founded on the basis of these distinctions, the aim of this paper is to investigate the preceding conditions for recent developments in the qualification systems of Britain and Germany, which have adapted to specific challenges during the last decades.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Germany

85. Mobilizing Talent for Global Development

Author:
Andrs Solimano
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The generation of new ideas and their application for productive uses is an important engine for growth and development. This is an area in which developing countries usually lag behind developed countries and is where development gaps are more evident. Behind the generation of ideas, innovations, and new technologies there is 'human talent': an inner capacity of individuals to develop ideas and objects, some of them with a high economic value. The 'human factor' is critical to the success or failure of many endeavours. Several countries, particularly China and India, followed by Russia, Poland, and some Latin American countries, are becoming an important source of talented people with PhDs and degrees in science, engineering, and other areas that can lead to change in the international patterns of comparative advantages and reduce development gaps. Part of the new talent formed in developing countries goes to live and work to developed countries, typically the USA, UK, and other OECD nations. At the same time multinational corporations are outsourcing several of their productive and service activities, including research and development, to developing countries (China and India are main destinations) to take advantage of the (less expensive) talent being developed there. Today, therefore, we see a double movement of talent and capital around the globe: on the one hand talent from developing countries is moving north seeking better opportunities where people are equipped with more capital, technologies, and effective organizations. On the hand capital from the north pursues talent in the south; a process largely led by multinational corporations.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Human Welfare, and Migration
Political Geography:
United States, China, United Kingdom, and India

86. Economic Survey of United Kingdom, 2005

Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
The stability and resilience of the economy has been impressive and labour and product markets are among the most flexible in the OECD, but structural economic performance judged against a range of indicators can be further improved.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

87. Resolving Nigeria's Paris Club Debt Problem: A Case of Non-Performing Creditors

Author:
Lex Rieffel
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Intense domestic pressure has convinced Nigeria's President, Olusegun Obasanjo, to consider a deal that would eliminate the country's $31 billion of debt owed to the governments of the United Kingdom, France, and other aid-giving countries.
Topic:
International Relations, Debt, and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, Paris, France, and Nigeria

88. A Gravity Model under Monopolistic Competition

Author:
Kari E. O. Alho
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper presents an alternative derivation of the gravity equation for foreign trade, which is explicitly based on monopolistic competition in the export markets and which is more general than previously seen in the literature. In contrast with the usual specification, our model allows for the realistic assumption of asymmetry in mutual trade flows. The model is estimated for trade in Europe, producing evidence that trade flows and barriers do indeed reveal strong asymmetry. We then carry out a simulation, based on the estimated model, of the general equilibrium effects (through trade) of the UK's possible entrance into the economic and monetary union.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

89. Who finances the Queen's CAP payments? The CAP as a dooH niboR Scheme

Author:
Richard E. Baldwin
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Thanks to the British Freedom of Information Act, the list of all CAP payments to English farms is public. It shows that the CAP is a dooH niboR scheme (that's Robin Hood spelled backwards). Table 1 records the CAP receipts for some of Britain's richest royalty. Why do royalty get paid? The CAP makes payments to farm owners, not to farmers, and about 40% of EU farmland is not farmed by its owner.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

90. Explaining Middle Eastern Authoritarianism

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Arab political regimes are both unusually undemocratic and unusually stable. A series of nested statistical models are reported to parse competing explanations. The democratic deficit is comprehensible in terms of lack of modernization, British colonial history, neighborhood effects, reliance on taxes for government finance, and the Arab population share. Interpretation of the last variable is problematic: It could point to some antidemocratic aspect of Arab culture (though this appears not to be supported by survey evidence), or it could be a proxy for some unobservable such as investment in institutions of internal repression that may not be culturally determined and instead reflect elite preferences. Hypotheses that did not receive robust support include the presence of oil rents, the status of women, conflict with Israel or other neighbors, or Islam. The odds on liberalizing transitions occurring are low but rising. In this respect the distinction between the interpretation of the Arab ethnic share as an intrinsic cultural marker and as a proxy for some unobservable is important-if the former is correct, then one would expect the likelihood of regime change to rise only gradually over time, whereas if it is the latter, the probabilities may exhibit much greater temporal variability.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

91. The Euro and the World Economy

Author:
Fred Bergsten
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The dollar has been the dominant currency of the world economy for almost a century for a single overwhelming reason: It had no competition. No other economy came close to the size of the United States. Hence no currency could acquire the network externalities, economies of scale and scope, and public goods benefits necessary to rival the dollar at the global level. A similar situation for the United Kingdom explains sterling's dominance in the 19th century.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and Europe

92. Will Globalization Survive?

Author:
Martin Wolf
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Ours is not the first age of globalization. The decades before the First World War were remarkably similar to our own era. Under the aegis of the United Kingdom and stimulated by a host of technological advances, the world enjoyed an era of liberal trade, remarkably free movement of people, and almost entirely free movement of capital. The world also enjoyed an unprecedented rise in prosperity. According to the economic historian, Angus Maddison, real GDP per head rose at a rate of 1.3 percent a year in the world as a whole between 1870 and 1913. This is not far short of the improvement of the past three decades. As table 1 shows, only Asia and Africa, both victims of colonialism, failed to share in the rising prosperity.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and War
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, and Asia

93. Routes into Networks: The Structure of English Trade in the East Indies, 1601-1833

Author:
Emily Erikson and Peter Bearman
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
Drawing on a remarkable dataset compiled from ships' logs, journals, factory correspondence, ledgers, and reports that provide unusually precise information on each of the 4,572 voyages taken by English traders of the East India Company (hereafter EIC), we describe the EIC trade network over time, from 1601 to 1833. From structural images of voyages organized by shipping seasons, we map the (over time and space) emergence of dense, fully integrated, global trade networks: of globalization before globalization. We show that the integration of the world trade system under the aegis of the EIC was the unintended by-product of systematic individual malfeasance (private trading) on the part of ship captains seeking profit from internal Eastern trade.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

94. Peace-building and Development in Guatemala and Northern Ireland

Author:
Charles A. Reilly
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:
Guatemala and Northern Ireland signed historic peace accords in 1996 and 1998 respectively. This paper, part of a longer term project comparing lessons learned from implementation in the two cases, focuses especially on Guatemala, making some middle range peace/development policy recommendations for that country's recently elected government and civil society organizations. Despite very different economic development levels, both countries are divided, find peace implementation difficult, and are heavily influenced by outside actors - including their own diaspora. Guatemala is deeply divided internally along class, race and ethnic lines, with more than 15% of its population in the U.S. (and close affinity with Mayan peoples who live across the Mexican border). Ireland too is divided along religious and ethnic lines, a border crosses the island. The North is linked politically to the United Kingdom, with social ties to emigrant populations there, in the south and in the United States. Guatemala, like its Central American neighbor El Salvador, embarked on peace-building with UN oversight, while the Northern Irish had United Kingdom and Irish Republic support for making peace. (Without pre-judging an eventual political resolution of the two Irelands, I'll refer to both Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, since that peace process, like Guatemala's, necessarily transcends borders). When compared to Northern Ireland, Guatemalan religious differences are minor, and religious leaders, Catholic, Protestant and Mayan played key roles in the peace process. Emigration figures large in both settings, as do many centuries of colonial or imperial domination. Both countries have struggled with post-accord violence which has reached alarming levels in Guatemala. Peace and development are inseparable - hence I emphasize growth with equity issues that are cause and consequence of both conflicts.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, Central America, Mexico, and North Ireland

95. Economic Survey of the United Kingdom, 2004

Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
The performance of the UK economy has been impressive in recent years, underpinned by wide-ranging structural reforms and sound macroeconomic policy frameworks. The OECD projects growth above potential in 2004 and 2005, with unemployment remaining low, but instability stemming from the housing market is a risk. Monetary policy should continue to tighten to reduce future inflationary pressures and the risk of a further sharp rise in house prices from becoming a potential source of fragility. At the same time, the current rigidity of house supply should be eased by reforming land planning, while a reform of the regressive council tax could help to reduce the risk of housing market instability. Over the projection period, government spending will continue to rise as a share of GDP, reflecting the government's ambitious targets in priority areas. Slowing spending growth may be warranted on efficiency grounds: bottlenecks have become apparent, while time is needed to pilot new innovative approaches. More generally, getting incentives right is essential to meet the ambitious service targets. Slowing spending growth would also benefit the public finances. An income-contingent contribution scheme for university graduates is an equitable way forward; other forms of user charges not compromising equity concerns could improve efficiency. Both are preferable to raising taxes. Trend growth has already been boosted by the sharp decline in structural unemployment, but measures are still needed to reduce the number of inactive, especially those on incapacity benefit. While educational performance of students has risen, policy needs to further address the lack of vocational skills as one element in a strategy to reduce the productivity gap with the best performers elsewhere. In this respect, competition is also important. The government has strengthened the competition framework and active enforcement along with the market studies of the Office of Fair Trading and the Competition Commission's market investigations should help to ensure that markets become more competitive. However, planning restrictions and market power are a problem in the retail sector and industry regulators will need to remain vigilant in the electricity, gas and telecom sectors. Ensuring macroeconomic stability, while addressing the remaining weaknesses through further structural reforms offers the prospect of continuing strong economic performance.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Environment, Human Rights, International Organization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

96. Learning and Change in Twentieth-Century British Economic Policy

Author:
Michael J. Oliver and Hugh Pemberton
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
Despite considerable interest in the means by which policy learning occurs, and in how it is that the framework of policy may be subject to radical change, the “black box” of economic policymaking remains surprisingly murky. This article utilizes Peter Hall's concept of “social learning” to develop a more sophisticated model of policy learning; one in which paradigm failure does not necessarily lead to wholesale paradigm replacement, and in which an administrative battle of ideas may be just as important a determinant of paradigm change as a political struggle. It then applies this model in a survey of UK economic policymaking since the 1930s: examining the shift to “Keynesianism” during the 1930s and 1940s; the substantial revision of this framework in the 1960s; the collapse of the “Keynesian-plus” framework in the 1970s; and the major revisions to the new “neo-liberal” policy framework in the 1980s and 1990s.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

97. Contagion: An Empirical Test

Author:
Jon Wongswan
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Using the conditional Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), this paper tests for the existence and pattern of contagion and capital market integration in global equity markets. Contagion is defined as significant excess conditional correlation among different countries' asset returns above what could be explained by economic fundamentals (systematic risks). Capital market integration is defined as the situation in which only systematic risks are priced. The paper uses a panel of sixteen countries, divided into three blocs: Asia, Latin America, and Germany-U.K.-U.S., for the period from 1990 through 1999. The results show evidence of contagion and capital market integration. In addition, contagion is found to be a regional phenomenon.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Asia, Germany, and Latin America

98. A Global Lottery and a Global Premium Bond

Author:
Tony Addison and Abdur R. Chowdhury
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The world lottery market now amounts to at least US$126 billion in sales. World market sales for all gaming products (public, charitable and commercial) total some US$1 trillion, of which Internet gambling accounts for US$32 billion. This paper assesses the prospects for harnessing this large and growing market for the purposes of development finance by means of a global lottery and a global premium bond (with the successful UK scheme providing a model for the latter). Each has different strengths: the global lottery can add to the supply of grant finance for development, while the global premium bond could be an attractive savings instrument for ethical investors. The paper concludes that global versions of both a lottery and a premium bond are viable and complementary in mobilizing more development finance.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

99. Equity Prices, Household Wealth, and Consumption Growth in Foreign Industrial Countries: Wealth Effects in the 1990s

Author:
Carol C. Bertaut
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Although most recent empirical research regarding the size and significance of the impact of changes in wealth on consumption has looked for such effects in the United States, equity prices in the 1990s rose considerably in most other industrial countries as well. This paper investigates the strength of the wealth effect across countries. Using a variety of methods, I find evidence of significant wealth effects in the United Kingdom and Canada of a size comparable to that in the United States, reflecting the importance of equities in aggregate household wealth in these countries. A significant wealth effect is also evident in Japan, but because household wealth has changed little on balance in Japan in recent years, this channel has been less important in explaining Japanese consumption growth in the second half of the 1990s. Despite a rapid appreciation in equity prices and an increase in equity ownership in the major continental European countries since 1995, equities remain a less important form of household wealth in most of these countries, and the consumption response to changes in wealth remains limited. However, in some smaller European countries where equity issuance is more common, the emerging evidence suggests that wealth effects may be more important.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and Canada

100. Measuring Unemployment Benefit Recipiency in New Zealand

Author:
Wayne Vroman
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
This is a paper about measurement. It originated within a project that is examining the performance of unemployment compensation (UC) programs from a cross-national perspective. At the current time the larger project has assembled data on the UC programs of more than 20 countries along with supporting labor market data. Within the set of OECD countries, the project has singled out for particular attention six English speaking countries: Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States. An analysis of the unemployment protection systems in these six countries was recently completed by Brusentsev (2002).
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Ireland, and New Zealand