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11161. Means to What End? Policymaking and State-Building in Afghanistan

Author:
Sarah Parkinson
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
Afghanistan has been in “state-building” mode since 2001, and formal policymaking has been an important tool for focusing and coordinating the efforts of the Afghan government and its international supporters. This synthesis paper considers the role that high-level policymaking has actually played, through a comparative analysis of five different recent examples of policymaking including the drafting of the Afghan National Development Strategy and the controversial Shiite personal status law. It highlights both the high level of donor influence on shaping policy, and the limited effectiveness of policies themselves.
Topic:
Development, Nationalism, Governance, State Building, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

11162. China versus the Washington Consensus: The Anomaly for World Bank Advocacy Research (pdf)

Author:
Dic Lo
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
The Chinese experience of economic transformation has presented a serious challenge to the Washington Consensus. Since the mid-1990s, institutions upholding the Washington Consensus have mostly excluded the Chinese experience – because of its conspicuous anomaly – in their attempts to interpret worldwide transition and development in line with their policy doctrines. Yet, China did in fact rigorously implement the policy doctrines in the years 1993-1997, but only to result in severe social and economic problems. Since 1998, in the face of the problems and because of increasingly social resistance to the mainstream policies, China has progressively turned to focus on “constructing a harmonious society”. This turn represents a quest for a model of social and economic development that deviates fundamentally from the Washington Consensus.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, World Bank, and Social Policy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

11163. Continental Drift: China and the Global Economic Crisis

Author:
Sangaralingam Ramesh
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
The economic prosperity associated with the Coastal regions of China has not ‘trickled’ down to the Western and Central regions sufficiently enough to eliminate the disparities in income between the regions. Indeed, the disparities between China’s Coastal regions and its other regions continue to deepen. In the Mao period, central planners held the mistaken belief that investment in the railways and development of heavy industry in the interior parts of China would bring prosperity. In the reform period and beyond, the focus of economic development in China has been to take advantage of China’s low labour costs. In the earlier part of the reform era the focus of economic reforms centred on the development of Special Economic Zones (SEZ’s) .In the second phase of reform policies were centred on the High Technology Development Zones [NHTIDZ’s].A characteristic feature of both SEZ’s and NHTIDZ’s is that they represent a concentration of infrastructure within a predefined spatial area. The current global economic crisis has presented China with a unique opportunity to deepen the economic transformation of the coastal regions by shifting the focus of economic development to its interior regions. Indeed, the government’s efforts to stave off the effects of the global crisis on the Chinese economy by attempting to maintain economic growth above 8% by utilising an expansive fiscal stimulus has had the effect of initiating the transformation of the interior Chinese economy. This then represents China’s third stage of economic development since 1949. This paper will examine the factors leading to China’s third stage of economic development which has resulted from the global economic crisis – the Continental drift of the economic development of China.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Global Financial Crisis, Investment, Stimulus, and Prosperity
Political Geography:
China and Asia

11164. A Theory of Capital Rationing

Author:
Jan Toporowski
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This paper revisits some of the issues originally put forward by the author as the theory of capital market inflation, in the book The End of Finance (Toporowski 2000). The paper makes much clearer the key assumptions and relationships between the operations of the capital market dominated by institutional investors, and the balance sheets of companies. In this way, it presents a theory of how macroeconomic dynamics may be affected by disequilibrium in the capital market. The first part of the paper examines the demand for new equity issues by institutional investors, namely insurance companies and pension funds. In the second part of the paper it is argued that the tendency of pension funds to mature may be a factor in forcing companies into debt and thus discouraging their investment and restricting their cash flow. The tendency towards forced indebtedness may be reinforced by an inelastic demand for capital by banks. The third part of the paper argues that the inelastic supply of capital in the capital market gives rise to processes of capital market inflation or deflation. The first of these may make banks more fragile. The second may contribute to deflationary processes in the macroeconomy. A fourth section argues that further instability is added by international capital market integration.
Topic:
Debt, Markets, Banks, and Investment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11165. China and World Development beyond the Crisis

Author:
Dic Lo
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Recent international opinions on China and world development have focused on the Sino-US economic nexus. The neo-liberal theory of “China causing global imbalances” claims that the particular way through which China has integrated itself into the world market is to the detriment of the economies of the advanced countries. The critical theory of “China facing internal and external dependence”, in contrast, claims that the real victim has been the economic development of China itself and the majority of developing economies. The objective of this paper is to clarify the analytical efficacy of these two theories, and, on that basis, to assess the validity of their implied policies. The paper also seeks to explore into the construction of an alternative policy line that suits better the needs of the social and economic development of China and the developing world.
Topic:
Development, Inequality, Social Policy, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
China and Asia

11166. Governance and Transformative Leadership in Africa: Progress, Prospects and Challenges

Author:
Sten Rylander
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
Sten Rylander, in the development memoir entitled “Governance and Transformative Leadership in Africa: Progress, prospects and challenges” discusses the aspect of peace and security that remains critical development factor for Africa. This calls for transformative leadership that can sets visions, provide selfless and capable leadership to turn the fortunes of the continent around. Africa is viewed as has the potential to become a powerful global player and this can be possible if the continent can transform from aid dependent to self sufficient if the question of leadership is addressed
Topic:
Security, Governance, Leadership, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa

11167. The Future of Bilateral Aid in Africa: Size, Flow, Conditionalities and Relative Importance in Countries Budget

Author:
Kristina Svensson
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
The publication addresses the growing frustration with lack of aid effectiveness that has set in motion a slow but visible transformation of the way in which development cooperation is being pursued, as embodied in the Millennium Declaration, the Paris Declaration of 2005 on Aid Effectiveness, and the International Health Partnership. Donors' programs are increasingly result- based, with greater emphasis on national to achieve its goal of assisting newly ownership and leadership, real donor harmonization and alignment with the development strategies of partner governments. There is also increased focus within the donor community on the interactions between economic and democratic development. As a result, development actors have become more enlightened about the importance of accountable, representative and transparent government institutions. At the same time, organizations that promote democracy have learned that a government's failure to deliver visible results can undermine democratic reforms
Topic:
Development, Bilateral Relations, Foreign Aid, Reform, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Africa

11168. Great Power Politics and Strategic Narratives

Author:
Andreas Antoniades, Alister Miskimmon, and Ben O'Loughlin
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:
Great powers use strategic narratives to establish and maintain influence in the international system and to shape the system itself. This is particularly the case in periods of transition in the international system when challengers to hegemonic powers emerge. Strategic narratives are an important tool which must be considered alongside material resources as a determinant of whether emerging great powers are able to shape a new systemic alignment. Strategic narratives are a tool through which great powers can articulate their interests, values and aspirations for the international system in ways that offer the opportunity for power transitions that avoid violent struggle between status quo and challenger states. Complicating this picture, however, is a complex media ecology which makes the process of projecting strategic narratives an increasingly difficult one. Analysis of international political communication within this media ecology is central to evaluating how strategic narratives are projected and the interactions that follow. We argue that empirical analysis of the formation, projection and reception of strategic narratives in that media ecology offers a framework through which to generate important findings concerning power transition, domestic and international legitimacy, and recognition and identity - important because many international relations scholars thus far failed to take into account the difference such narratives make, and can make.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Geopolitics, Grand Strategy, and State Actors
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

11169. Azerbaijan’s Accession to World Trade Organization (WTO); Pros and Cons

Author:
Vugar Bayramov
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD) together with Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) have published new policy paper titled as “Azerbaijan’s accession to the WTO: Assessing the macroeconomic consequences for the economy of Azerbaijan”. The paper analyzes the macroeconomic consequences for Azerbaijan’s economy in case the country joins the World Trade Organization (WTO ). Existing studies primarily draw on qualitative methods, while for this study a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the economy is calculated to simulate the consequences of WTO accession. The authors are able to generate numeric forecasts for macroeconomic variables as a measure for welfare and elaborate how WTO accession, interpreted as an external shock to the economy, would affect these variables. This study is, therefore, a unique contribution to the public and academic debate as it is the first study to quantitatively gauge the effects of accession beyond qualitative arguments. To contextualize the quantitative findings, several independent experts were interviewed to compile their opinions on WTO accession. The results of this study suggest positive welfare effects of WTO accession through increases in income, consumption and savings. However, the forecasts generated through our model reveal that exports would plummet as a consequence of accession. This must be of particular concern for the Azerbaijani economy with its oil and energy sector currently being the main driver of gross domestic product, foreign direct investment and exports. As a consequence, the Azerbaijani economy needs to diversify rapidly and decrease its dependence on oil to realize positive effects on general welfare that could be triggered through WTO accession. Whether these positive effects will materialize in the long run is hard to predict, although the qualitative evidence cited in this study suggests that accession would bring along important incentives for diversification.
Topic:
Economics, Oil, World Trade Organization, and Trade
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

11170. On the Palestinian issue, how much credit should Europe get amongst Arab opinion for its economic and political support?

Author:
Ralitsa Trifonova
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
The formulation in the Council of Ministers’ of the European Union statement, issued on 8 December 2009, that within “an agreed time-frame” an independent Palestinian state should emerge on the Middle East’s political map raised hopes for a breakthrough in the remaining unsolved more than 60 years Palestinian issue. Together with the statement of the United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in Moscow in the late 2009, this formulation is viewed by members of the Palestinian National Authority itself as a sign, in being specific in contrast with previous statements excluding a set timeframe for the establishment of a viable independent Palestinian state. After the unveiled Israeli violations of the international law during the last war over Gaza, a lot of voices not only in Palestine, but from all over world are revealing the impatience, reaching its nadir as Israeli behaviour does not represent threat only to the Palestinian people, but to the whole international system, especially when it shelled the headquarters of one the United Nations agencies on 15 January 2009. Some analysts believe that after the continued over 60 year’s failure of the USA to reach any significant progress to the benefit of the Palestinian people, it is high time Europe entered the Middle East arena as the third party, which would lead the two parties of the IsraeliPalestinian issue to a balanced solution, which does not reply on forced compromise. As the distrust of the Palestinian people with the USA is growing, Europe would only play a positive role if it were a trust-worthy ally itself. In order to give this alternative a positive perspective, we need to go back to the beginning of the European involvement in the Palestinian issue, to follow its own history of internal development, to explore the character of its economic aid and the existence of political support to the Palestinian people in their most turbulent and crucial moments in last four decades.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Human Rights, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Europe, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

11171. Europe in Yemen: Still Much to Do

Author:
Lorenzo Piras
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
The international community is helping Yemen by providing support in many different areas, most notably in the governance sector and in the fight against poverty and hunger. The European Union, acting through the European Commission, is one of the main donors to Yemen, and the individual Member States are actively engaged in the country, both backing the government’s development and social plans and carrying out some autonomous projects. This article will examine the state of the art European intervention in Yemen, with regard to both EC-funded development programmes and, in a broader perspective, to the strategic goals of Brussels in the country. The weaknesses of the European action in Yemen and the criticism it drew, especially from other Middle Eastern countries, will then be anazlyzed. Lastly, this piece will try to highlight how and with which objectives European efforts should be structured in order to stabilize Yemen effectively
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Political stability, and Development Aid
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Yemen

11172. Jordanian Tribal Violence: Historical Context and Current Problems

Author:
Hayley Mohan
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan’s rich developmental history in both the political and social spheres have been complex and dynamic, ever since the country’s creation in the early 1920s. If any research pertaining to Jordan’s society is to be understood, it first must be placed in a historical context, and later examined on its own. Perhaps the most prevalent social issue facing this country is violence between tribes and dangerous infighting. While crime is considered low in Jordan,1 2009 started a seemingly peculiar upswing in the number of violent disputes between tribes. Although the problem itself is not new because Jordan has always been a tribally organized society, the statistics of 2009, which will be discussed later on, provide an interesting foundation for discussion. Using that year as a jumping-off point, we will ask several key questions to anchor our research: What is the historical background of tribes in Jordan? Has this changed over time? What made 2009 an unusual year? What can we conclude, or solutions can be suggested? Ideally, discovered case studies and examples will be able to help us glean an understanding of this complicated social issue.
Topic:
History, Conflict, Violence, Tribes, and Society
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan

11173. The Jordan River Dilemma: A Basic Game Theoretical Approach

Author:
Maurice R. Wingo
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
Fresh water resources are scarce in Jordan, Palestine, Syria and Israel. The situation is expected to worsen in these countries as they expand by population and economy. Regional water scarcity and the resulting overdrafting of the Jordan River can be framed and analyzed in a Game Theory (GT) framework. An existing GT study of the Nile River Basin can act as a principle example and reference. The goal of this essay is to better understand how we can save a dying Jordan River, and possibly achieve a more efficient regional water diversion scheme.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Water, Scarcity, and Game Theory
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Syria, Jordan, and Jordan Valley

11174. The Economic Condition of Displaced Iraqis Living in Jordan: A Study of Vocational Training

Author:
Farah Thalji
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
The Iraqi War has garnered international attention as a traumatic conflict in many respects. Rising death tolls, expensive military operations, internal fragmentation and civilian suffering have all become hallmarks of the ongoing conflict. This often overshadows the distress of Iraqis scattered to neighboring countries by the war. This report focuses the lens on displaced Iraqis who have fled to the neighboring Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan to seek refuge. Refugees are used as the instrument for measuring the impact of the conflict and its residuals on others in the region. The subsequent goal is to demonstrate the rippling effect of conflict in such a manner that goes beyond the surface to the longer-term effects that are often overlooked by the media in favor of shocking short-term events. One problem Iraqis face in Jordan is economic survival. There is a pervasive attitude that Jordan only harbors wealthy Iraqis. While this stereotype may apply to some Iraqis, it is certainly not a reality for many –particularly considering that seven years have passed since the start of the war and personal funds have been depleting. One of the troubles that Iraqis in Jordan now face is the inability to participate in the labor force due to legal restrictions. With an estimated population of somewhere between 450,000 to 700,000 Iraqis amongst Jordan’s population of 6 million, this poses a serious problem. An assessment of the situation attempts to understand the Iraqi effort for survival by focusing on vocational training and support for displaced Iraqis. The goal of such an effort is to capture the Iraqi attempt to transition into the labor market in Jordan. It also reflects that economic involvement in the Jordanian economy is becoming increasingly necessary as security continues to remain an issue in Iraq and the fear of return persists. Discussing the political and legal as well as the social status of Iraqis in Jordan forms a necessary foundation for the study of their economic situation and the subsequent merit of vocational training programs.2
Topic:
Economics, Refugees, Displacement, and Vocational Training
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Jordan

11175. Lifestyles and Preferences for (Public) Goods: Professional Football Goods: Professional Football Professional Footballin Munich

Author:
Gabriel Ahlfeldt, Wolfgang Maennig, and Michaela Ölschläger
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
This paper investigates the 2001 referendum on the Allianz-Arena, a professional soccer stadium in Munich, Germany, with respect to lifestyle-specific voter preferences. Using political party affiliation and milieu probabilities as proxy variables, we find that lifestyle-specific preferences, values and attitudes more significantly contribute to the explanation of voting outcome compared to traditional strata-orientated indicators of economic wealth. Thus, lifestyle, preferences, tastes and attitudes are not proportionally related to income. Results are robust to stadium proximity effects and spatial dependency.
Topic:
Sports, Referendum, Stadiums, and Lifestyle
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Munich

11176. Sectoral Labour Market Effects of the 2006 FIFA World Cup

Author:
Arne Feddersen and Wolfgang Maennig
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
Using the case of the 2006 FIFA World Cup, this study is the first to test the employment effects of a mega-sporting event on the basis of data that are both regional and sectoral. It is also the first study of sporting events to use a non-parametric test method. Earlier studies on the World Cup could not identify any employment effects. In contrast, we find a small but significant positive employment effect on the hospitality sector and a negative effect on the construction sector. To our knowledge, this is the first time that such a crowding-out effect of public investment on the occasion of a mega-sporting event has been found in an empirical analysis.
Topic:
Economics, World Cup, Labor Market, and FIFA
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

11177. Mega-Events and Sectoral Employment: The Case of the 1996 Olympic Games

Author:
Arne Feddersen
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
This paper contributes to the analysis of large sporting events using highly disaggregated data. We use the 1996 Olympic Games in Atlanta, which are also outstanding as one of the very few large sporting events where ex post academic analysis found significant positive effects. This paper extends earlier studies in several ways. First, monthly rather than quarterly data will be employed. Second, the impact of the 1996 Olympics will be analyzed for 16 different sectors or subsectors. Third, in addition to standard DD models, we use a non-parametric approach to flexibly isolate employment effects. Regarding the Olympic effect, hardly any evidence for a persistent shift in the aftermath of or the preparation for the Olympic Games is supported. We find a significant positive employment effect in the monthly employment statistics exclusively during the staging of the Olympic Games (July 1996). These short-term effects are concentrated in the sectors of “retail trade”, “accommodation and food services”, and “arts, entertainment, and recreation”, while other sectors showed no such effects.
Topic:
Economics, Employment, Sports, Olympics, and Sectoral Data
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

11178. The 2010 World Cup High-Frequency Data Economics: Effects on International Awareness and (Self-Defeating) Tourism

Author:
Stan Du Plessis and Wolfgang Maennig
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
Without a doubt, the 2010 World Cup of soccer in South Africa was a great experience for both soccer fans, who enjoyed a safe and efficiently-run tournament, and their South African hosts. The sporting and social spectacle was broadcast around the world and focused unprecedented media attention on South Africa. Despite the manifest success of the tournament, its short-term effects on international tourism, which are the nucleus of all other short-term positive effects on economic variables such as employment, income and taxes, have turned out to be of a much smaller magnitude than expected or even as reported during the tournament. This may be attributable to self-defeating prophecy effects. This study is a warning against the abuse of economic impact studies, especially those pertaining to major sporting events. It is also a call to use the “correct” arguments of measurable awareness effects and potential long-term development effects in discussing major sporting events. Methodologically, this study is innovative in its economic analysis of major sporting events because it (i) uses data from social networks and (ii) uses high-frequency daily data on tourism.
Topic:
Economics, Tourism, Sports, World Cup, Facebook, Social Networks, FIFA, and Google
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Global Focus

11179. Do Men Slow Down Faster than Women?

Author:
Wolfgang Maennig and Michael Stobernack
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
This paper is the first test of differences between age-related reductions in the performance of men and women. The assumption that men age faster is obvious, because men's life expectancy is generally lower. In addition to other studies on age-related reduction in human performance, this paper examines the data taken from competitions on rowing machines, which have been standardized worldwide and which are hardly affected by weather or temperature. A third innovation is that this study looks for any potential ageing processes specific to gender and physique. Fourth, fractional polynomials have been added to the testing methodology. Contrary to intuition, we find evidence that women are affected by faster age-related reductions in performance.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Women, Aging, Men, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11180. Perceived Externalities of Cell Phone Base Stations Stations – The Case of Property Prices in The Case of Property Prices in Hamburg, Germany Hamburg, Germany

Author:
Sebastian Brandt and Wolfgang Maennig
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
We examine the impact of cell phone base stations on prices of condominiums in Hamburg, Germany. This is the first hedonic pricing study on this subject for real estates in Europe and the first worldwide which examines the price impact of base stations within a whole metropolis. We distinguish between individual masts and groups of masts. Based on a data set of over 1,000 base stations set up in Hamburg, we find that only immediate proximity to groups of antenna masts is perceived as harmful by residents of nearby condominiums. For individual masts, however, no effect on residential property prices in the surrounding areas has been observed indicating that cell phone service providers should prevent installation of groups of masts in a single location. We control for spatial dependence and show that the influence of cell phone base stations on adjacent residential property prices can be overestimated, if other negative externalities that are typically correlated with the proximity to base stations are neglected.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Property, and Cell Phone Base Stations
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Hamburg