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1101. Learning from Case Studies

Author:
Malcolm Chalmers
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
When countries are accepted into NATO membership, it will become more difficult to 'test' them on a pass/fail basis since, by virtue of the fact that they will have been accepted into the 'club', they will already have passed. Increasingly, therefore, some other form of process will be needed in order to promote improvements in democratic control of the armed forces in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and NATO
Political Geography:
Europe

1102. Why Engage in Security Sector Reform Abroad? International Norms, External Democratization and the Role of DCAF

Author:
Gerhard Kümmel
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
The issue of Security Sector Reform (SSR) has gained quite a lot of interest within the last decade both in politics and in academia. However there is no consensus or agreement on what is actually meant by SSR and how it is to be defined. To map the scope of the debate, Timothy Edmunds (2001: 1) distinguishes two approaches to delineate what SSR refers to: "The first is concerned with those militarised formations authorised by the state to utilise force to protect the state itself and its citizens. This definition limits SSR to organisations such as the regular military, paramilitary police forces and the intelligence services. The second approach takes a wider view of SSR, defining it as those organisations and activities concerned with the provision of security (broadly defined), and including organisations and institutions ranging from, for example, private security guards to the judiciary." The first approach may be regarded as constituting something like the minimum consensus on what SSR includes and, thus, seems to be quite undisputed. Also, the examples Edmunds cites as belonging to the second approach seem to be quite legitimate, albeit with this arguably being more the case for the judiciary than for private security guards. Nevertheless, the real problems with the second approach rest in what is being put into the brackets, namely a broad definition of security. This resonates with the debate about the term, the meaning(s) and the dimensions of security. Within this debate, one may observe an extension of the contents of the term security to include, for example, ecological, cultural, and, quite recently, human dimensions (see Buzan 1991; Daase 1991; Buzan/Waever/de Wilde 1998). As a consequence, if these extended dimensions of security were included in the usage of the term security in SSR, this would surely mean overloading the concept because the number of actors involved in SSR would become legion.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Democratization
Political Geography:
Europe

1103. Macedonia and Southeastern Europe: Analysing Treats and Risks

Author:
Jack Petri
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
It is clear to those who have spent time analysing and defining threats how important it is to do this well. It is not always as clear how to identify some of the more subtle internal non-traditional threats. For defence and military planners, it should be apparent that the work they do in developing an accurate threat analysis is an essential part of the equation used by political leaders to evaluate the form and substance of a nation's armed forces, to determine what resources are necessary to create and sustain defence and military establishments that are capable of successfully dealing with these threats, should it become necessary to do so.
Topic:
International Relations, Defense Policy, and National Security
Political Geography:
Europe

1104. The European Union: Energy Security and the Periphery

Author:
John Gault
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Europe relies upon imported energy, and the degree of this reliance will increase in coming decades. Internal (primarily North Sea) production of liquid fuels will decline, and production of natural gas will reach a plateau, so that incremental hydrocarbon requirements will necessarily come from external sources. This trend of rising energy imports has important security implications.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

1105. Transatlantic Relations in a Unipolar World

Author:
William Wohlforth
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The state of transatlantic relations is normal - arguably in crisis, arguably not; poised for fundamental change, or for basic continuity. The usual question for conferences on transatlantic relations is whether this situation will continue. My purpose in this paper is to set forth a perspective on the future of the transatlantic relationship based on the central realist proposition that the distribution of capabilities among states is an important background influence on their behaviour. Major changes in international relations often arise from changes in the distribution of power. Important features of the Cold War resulted from the great concentration of power in the United States and the Soviet Union - a condition that came to be called "bipolarity." The Cold War ended in significant measure owing to changes in the distribution of power - namely, the decline and fall of the Soviet Union. As a result of Soviet and Russian decline, a new unipolar distribution has emerged with new consequences for international politics in general and the transatlantic relationship in particular.
Topic:
International Relations and NATO
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

1106. Mediterranean Security and Co-Operation: Interest and Role of Italy and Libya

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
This paper looks at the international relations across the Mediterranean Sea, between the European countries - in particular, the European Union-EU - and the countries of the Near East and North Africa. In this framework, it tries to define the role of Italy and Libya and the joint actions they can carry out to foster peace and co-operation in the area concerned.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Libya, North Africa, and Italy

1107. Trans-Atlantic Relations: Challenges and Opportunities

Author:
Wolfgang Ischinger
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute at University of Wisconsin, Madison
Abstract:
I would like to share some observations about German-American relations, about Afghanistan, about Iraq and the war on terrorism, and about power and the global system. Where does Germany stand today? The recent elections in Germany have brought about a number of significant developments.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, America, Europe, and Germany

1108. Trans-Atlantic Relations: A Norwegian Perspective

Author:
Knut Vollebaek
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute at University of Wisconsin, Madison
Abstract:
Gilles Bousquet, Dean of International Studies and Director of the International Institute, welcomed guests to the event. Ambassador Vollebæk was introduced by Alfred Defago, former Swiss ambassador to the United States and currently International Institute Visiting Professor. Professor Defago, who invited Ambassador Vollebæk to the UW–Madison campus in conjunction with his International Studies seminar on “Evolving European Perspectives on American Politics and Society,” described Ambassador Vollebæk as one of Europe's top diplomats and as one of the most influential and intellectually brilliant leaders of the diplomatic community in Washington, D.C. Ambassador Vollebæk, a career diplomat, served as Foreign Minister of Norway from 1997–2000 and in that capacity was chairman of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. A tireless advocate for international human rights, he was a leader in efforts to stop the atrocities in Kosovo and played key roles in monitoring conflicts and brokering negotiations in Chechnya, Sri Lanka and the Middle East.
Topic:
International Relations and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, America, Europe, Washington, Middle East, Norway, Chechnya, Sri Lanka, and Kosovo

1109. The Politics of Sanctions

Author:
Simon Chesterman and Béatrice Pouligny
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Do sanctions work? The jury remains out on this question, but two preliminary issues bear further examination also. What are sanctions intended to achieve? And do states actually want sanctions to work? These essentially political questions depend on two discrete dynamics that are the subject of this report, which focuses on sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council. The first is the political context of the Council and how the intentions of key actors are channelled into sanctions regimes. The second is the political economy in which those sanctions operate.
Topic:
International Relations, Peace Studies, Political Economy, and United Nations

1110. Achievements in Building and Maintaining the Rule of Law:MSI's Studies in LAC, E, AFR, and ANE

Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
Over the past two decades the Latin America and Caribbean region (LAC) has undergone a major political transformation. All countries in the region now have elected civilian governments, with the sole exception of Cuba. With this political opening have come economic liberalization and increased opportunities for citizen participation. The region has moved beyond the formality of elections and is now confronting the more difficult challenge of reforming its other political, economic, and legal institutions.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil Society, Diplomacy, and International Law
Political Geography:
Cuba, Latin America, and Caribbean

1111. Key Judgments (from October 2002 NIE) - Iraq's Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction

Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We judge that Iraq has continued its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs in defiance of UN resolutions and restrictions. Baghdad has chemical and biological weapons as well as missiles with ranges in excess of UN restrictions; if left unchecked, it probably will have a nuclear weapon during this decade. (See INR alternative view at the end of these Key Judgments.)
Topic:
International Relations, United Nations, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

1112. Exchange Rate Regimes and Financial Dollarization: Does Flexibility Reduce Bank Currency Mismatches?

Author:
Carlos Ó. Arteta
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The dollarization of bank deposits and credit is widespread in developing countries, resulting in varying degrees of currency mismatches in domestic financial intermediation, which in turn might accentuate bank balance sheet fragility. It is widely argued that flexible exchange rate regimes encourage banks to match dollar-denominated liabilities with a corresponding amount of dollar-denominated assets, ameliorating currency mismatches. Does the behavior of dollar deposits and credit in financially dollarized economies support that presumption? A new database on deposit and credit dollarization in developing and transition countries is assembled and used to address this question. Empirical results suggest that, if anything, floating regimes seem to exacerbate, rather than ameliorate, currency mismatches in domestic financial intermediation, as those regimes seem to encourage deposit dollarization more strongly than they encourage matching via credit dollarization.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

1113. Identifying the Role of Moral Hazard in International Financial Markets

Author:
Steven B. Kamin
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Considerable attention has been paid to the possibility that large-scale IMF-led financing packages may have distorted incentives in international financial markets, leading private investors to provide more credit to emerging market countries, and at lower interest rates, than might otherwise have been the case. Yet, prior attempts to identify such distortions have yielded mixed evidence, at best. This paper makes three contributions to our ability to assess the empirical importance of moral hazard in international financial markets. First, it is argued that because large international "bailouts" did not commence until the 1995 Mexican crisis, financial indicators prior to that time could not have reflected a significant degree of this type of moral hazard. Therefore, one test for the existence of moral hazard is that the access of emerging markets to international credit is significantly easier than it was prior to 1995. Second, the paper argues that because private investors expect large-scale IMF-led packages to be extended primarily to economically or geo-politically important countries, moral hazard, if it exists, should lead these countries to have easier terms of access to credit than smaller, non-systemically important countries. Finally, in addition to looking at bond spreads, the focus of earlier empirical analyses of moral hazard, the paper also examines trends in capital flows to gauge the access of emerging market countries to external finance. Looking at the evidence in light of these considerations, the paper concludes that there is little support for the view that moral hazard is significantly distorting international capital markets at the present time.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance

1114. On the Fragility of Gains from Trade under Continuously Differentiated Bertrand Competition

Author:
Mario Marazzi
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
One of the most widely accepted principles of economics is the existence of gains from trade for every nation under certain conditions including perfect competition. In the last twenty years, trade economists have revolutionized the field by firmly establishing the possibility of modeling imperfectly competitive international markets. Despite this development, most still agree there are good reasons to believe that gains from trade are still present. However, we show that in the absence of international redistributions the presence of a positive profit sector in a general equilibrium model can lead to a situation in which some nations may lose from the reduction of international trade barriers.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance

1115. The Inflation Persistence of Staggered Contracts

Author:
Luca Guerrieri
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
One of the criticisms routinely advanced against models of the business cycle with staggered contracts is their inability to generate inflation persistence. This paper finds that staggered contracts µa la Taylor are, in fact, capable of reproducing the inflation persistence implied by U.S. data. Following Fuhrer and Moore, I capture the moments that the contract specification needs to replicate by using the correlograms from a small vector autoregression (VAR) that includes inflation among the endogenous variables. A simple structural model substitutes the inflation equation from the VAR with the contract specification. I estimate the contract parameters in the structural model by maximum likelihood. The correlogram for the endogenous variables from the estimated structural model, including that for inflation, are very close to the correlograms from the VAR (and are contained within their 90% confidence intervals). By the same metric, where Taylor contracts do not fare well is in reproducing the cross-correlations between inflation and output.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

1116. Productivity Shocks, Habits, and the Current Account

Author:
Joseph W. Gruber
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Empirical work regarding Intertemporal Current Account (ICA) models has centered around two distinct testing methodologies, present value tests and a productivity shock approach as formulated by Glick and Rogoff (1995). In previous work, Gruber (2001), I have tested and ICA model that allows for habits in aggregate consumption via the present value method. This paper applies the alternative Glick and Rogoff style approach to testing the model. The benefits of doing such are an ability to separate country-specific from worldwide output changes, a distinction of considerable importance, as well as to impose restrictions on the relationship between investment and output, neither of which are possible in the present value framework. The results of the test are supportive of the existence of habits and coincide with the results of Gruber (2001). The degree of habit persistence implied by the model is estimated for the G-7 countries. The paper also proposes habit formation as a possible solution to an empirical puzzle identified in the original Glick and Rogoff paper.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

1117. Resolving Conflicts In The Caucasus And Moldova: Perspectives On Next Steps

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
On 6-7 May 2002, the National Intelligence Council and the Department of State's Bureau of Intelligence and Research sponsored a conference that examined the prospects for resolving regional conflicts involving four states of the former Soviet Union: Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Moldova. The conference brought together outside scholars, regional experts and officials to discuss the conflicts in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Transnistria. The purpose was not to arrive at a consensus but to deepen understanding of the complex geopolitical dynamics at work in the region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Moldova, Eastern Europe, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia

1118. Equity Prices, Household Wealth, and Consumption Growth in Foreign Industrial Countries: Wealth Effects in the 1990s

Author:
Carol C. Bertaut
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Although most recent empirical research regarding the size and significance of the impact of changes in wealth on consumption has looked for such effects in the United States, equity prices in the 1990s rose considerably in most other industrial countries as well. This paper investigates the strength of the wealth effect across countries. Using a variety of methods, I find evidence of significant wealth effects in the United Kingdom and Canada of a size comparable to that in the United States, reflecting the importance of equities in aggregate household wealth in these countries. A significant wealth effect is also evident in Japan, but because household wealth has changed little on balance in Japan in recent years, this channel has been less important in explaining Japanese consumption growth in the second half of the 1990s. Despite a rapid appreciation in equity prices and an increase in equity ownership in the major continental European countries since 1995, equities remain a less important form of household wealth in most of these countries, and the consumption response to changes in wealth remains limited. However, in some smaller European countries where equity issuance is more common, the emerging evidence suggests that wealth effects may be more important.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and Canada

1119. International Coordination of Macroeconomic Policies: Still Alive in the New Millennium?

Author:
Joseph E. Gagnon, Dale W. Henderson, Brian M. Doyle, and Laurence H. Meyer
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In this paper we provide two building blocks for an analysis of international policy coordination: (1) a survey of models of policy coordination, and (2) an account of experience with policy coordination among the G-7 countries and within Europe since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System. Using these building blocks, we investigate the correspondence between the models and experience and attempt to draw lessons for both the modelers and the practitioners. We find that the correspondence is close enough that the models help in analyzing several instances of actual policy coordination, but that the correspondence could be even closer. As for lessons for modelers, we suggest that they devote more attention to the analysis of information exchange, a key feature of practical policy coordination; to the coordination of different types of policies; to the ramifications of political divisions within countries; and to the implications of market irrationality and speculative bubbles. As for lessons for policy makers, we suggest that they give more consideration to the choice of their ultimate objectives, in particular to whether the current account should always be close to balance; to achieving better internal policies; and to the greater use of fiscal policy as a stabilization tool.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

1120. Financial Centers and the Geography of Capital Flows

Author:
Francis E. Warnock and Chad Cleaver
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We examine an assumption common in empirical work on bilateral portfolio capital flows that the countries the flows are attributed to are also the countries of the security's issuer, seller, or ultimate buyer. We do this by estimating U.S. investors' holdings of debt and equities in over 40 countries and, for the same countries, foreign investors' holdings of U.S. debt and equities. A comparison of our estimates with data from benchmark surveys provides insight into U.S. data on international debt and equity transactions. We find that, contrary to the common assumption, the data do not track the location of U.S. investment or the location of investors in U.S. assets very well. Because the U.S. portfolio flow data collection system was designed to measure cross-border transactions with foreign counterparties who are often intermediaries, the majority of the flows are attributed to financial centers. By aggregating our country-level estimates, we find that U.S. data accurately portray net inflows into U.S. equities and net outflows into foreign bonds. However, the data substantially overcount net inflows into U.S. bonds and may undercount net outflows into foreign equities. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our findings for research on capital flows.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

1121. Afghanistan and Regional Geopolitical Dynamics after 11 September

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In April 2002, the National Intelligence Council sponsored a conference that examined the impact of events in Afghanistan since 11 September on a variety of regional actors, including Russia, Iran, Turkey, India, Europe, Pakistan, and the Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The conference brought together government and outside experts and consisted of four workshops with presentations from ten academic and regional experts, followed by lengthy discussion sessions. The purpose of the conference was not to arrive at a consensus but to deepen understanding of the complex geopolitical dynamics at work in the region.
Topic:
International Relations, Regional Cooperation, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan

1122. On the Sequencing of Projects, Reputation Building, and Relationship Finance

Author:
David C. Smith, Steven Ongena, and Dominik Egli
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We study the decision an entrepreneur faces in financing multiple projects and show that relationship financing will arise endogenously in an environment where strategic defaults are likely, even when firms have access to arm's-length financing. Relationship financing allows an entrepreneur to build a private reputation for repayment that reduces the cost of financing. However, in an environment where the risk of strategic default is low, the benefits from reputation building are outweighed by holdup rents extractable by the incumbent lender. Entrepreneurs then choose to finance projects from single or multiple arm's-length lenders.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

1123. La calidad del ciudadano. Past and Present. The Nature of Citizenship in Mexico and the United States- 1776-1912

Author:
Erika Pani
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Mexico's transition to democratic rule has triggered much debate about the legacies of the past under which Mexicans must labor. Mexico is seen as emerging from a monolithic, murky and only rarely interrupted authoritarian past, from the Aztec tlatoanis to the PRI. Mexican “political culture” is seen as both the underlying principle and the creature of this historical experience. Some characterize Mexicans as lacking democratic values, with no electoral culture and with their families structured along patriarchic and authoritarian lines. Ironically, this approach, which tries to explain the present by understanding the past, is blatantly unhistorical. It speaks of static, eternal core values, of an unchanging México Profundo that has supposedly lurked inside every Mexican through the ages regardless of class or regional origin. Thus, writes one scholar, “behind an image of modernity and values, lies hidden the arithmetic relationship of dominion and subordination.” The trappings of a modern society barely cover one that is deeply traditional, whose real values and practices are rooted in “the ancient Mesoamerican civilizations.”
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States and Mexico

1124. U.S. Policy Toward the Former Yugoslavia

Author:
Steven E. Meyer
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
As long as the Cold War framed the international arena, relations between the United States and Yugoslavia were—for the most part—fairly clear and predictable. Both sides played their assigned roles well in the larger East-West drama. For the U.S., Yugoslavia—after Tito and Stalin split in 1948—was the useful, even reliable, strategically-placed, communist antagonist to the Soviet Union. Certainly, Washington complained at times about Yugoslavia's preference for nonalignment and lamented the fact that it was not part of the Western alliance. The fact that Yugoslavia was indeed a communist state that Moscow could not control, however, more than compensated for these “short comings.” As a reward, the U.S. courted Tito, provided economic aid, and paid virtually no attention to how he ran the country—even his brutal rise to power after World War II was of little consequence.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Cold War, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Washington, Soviet Union, and Yugoslavia

1125. NATO as a Factor of Security Community Building: Enlargement and Democratization in Central and Eastern Europe

Author:
Corneliu Bjola
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
This analysis is primarily concerned with examining the building blocks and mechanisms through which NATO extends its institutional and normative influence and contributes (or not) to reducing chances for military conflict and political tension in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) by integrating the region into the Western security community. In terms of political stakes, the prospects of forming a CEE security community would be seriously undermined if NATO enlargement and partnership programs were perceived as facilitating the evolution of a regional arms race, driven by aggressive foreign policies and sponsored by widespread nationalism and regional mistrust. The formation of the CEE security community would be more likely if the institutional and normative adjustments induced by NATO's cooperative security arrangements were viewed as promoting the democratic development of the political-military structures driven by non-nationalist and region-wide, cooperative attitudes.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, NATO, and Democratization
Political Geography:
Europe

1126. The Politics of European Enlargement: NATO, the EU and the New U.S.-European Relationship

Author:
Howard J. Wiarda
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the end of the Cold War, the main issues in Eastern and Central Europe, and in U.S. and European policy toward the area, have focused on achieving peace and stability, building democracy, accomplishing economic and institutional reform, accelerating growth and modernization, and anchoring and integrating the countries of the area into Europe and its two great “clubs”: the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). It could be said that the last three goals listed–democracy, economic and institutional reform, and European integration–were all means to the end of achieving peace and stability in this critical area, not known historically for its stable, peaceful politics, as well as to the end of securing a buffer zone on Europe's eastern frontiers that would also function as a means to hem in and limit any future Russian resurgence. What may have begun in strategic planners' eyes as a means to an end, however, has since then taken on a life of its own.
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, Cold War, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and North Atlantic

1127. Toward a North American Community? - A Conference Report

Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
The “Toward a North American Community?” conference hosted by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars on June 11, 2002, examined the current relationships between the United States, Mexico, and Canada, and investigated the future of North American integration.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
North America

1128. Dissuasion as a Strategic Concept

Author:
Richard Kugler
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Some analysts want to downplay dissuasion or set it aside entirely because of its ambiguity. But ignoring this emerging idea would be short sighted. Despite its haziness, the term goes to the heart of new-era geopolitics in several key regions, including Asia. If the United States can learn how to dissuade skillfully, its strategic effectiveness in troubled regions will improve significantly. When the idea of deterrence first appeared 50 years ago, it too was ambiguous. During the Cold War, however, it acquired a role of central importance once it was equipped with a full-fledged strategic theory. The same may hold true for dissuasion in the early 21st century—but only if it too is equipped with the full set of analyses and calculations needed to bring it to life.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

1129. EU Crisis Response Capabilities: An Update

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In June 2001, ICG published a first report on EU crisis response capabilities, which presented a snapshot of the institutions, policies and processes for conflict prevention and crisis management as they stood at mid 2001. It described the respective roles in external relations matters of the three key EU institutions, Council, Commission and Parliament, and the evolving machinery for implementing more coordinated strategies in the formulation of general policy positions, conflict prevention and conflict management.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Europe

1130. Belgrade's Lagging Reform: Cause for International Concern

Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
For more than a decade Serbia was the driving force behind much of the instability in the Balkans. Following the overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic on 5 October 2000, it was hoped that Serbia would promptly reform the external policies of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) that had caused such disruption. To date, these hopes have been substantially disappointed.
Topic:
International Relations, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Balkans

1131. Ties That Bind? The Parapublic Underpinnings of Franco-German Relations as Construction of International Value

Author:
Ulrich Krotz
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
Beneath the relations among states, and distinct from the exchanges of an autonomous regional or global civil society, there is another set of international practices which is neither public nor private but parapublic. The Franco-German parapublic underpinnings consist of publicly funded youth and educational exchanges, some two thousand city and regional partnerships, a host of institutes and associations concerned with Franco-German matters, and various other parapublic elements. This institutional reality provides resources, socializes the participants of its programs, and generates social meaning. Simultaneously, parapublic activity faces severe limits. In this paper I clarify the concept of “parapublic underpinnings” of international relations and flesh out their characteristics for the relationship between France and Germany. I then evaluate the effects and limits of this type of activity, and relate this paper's findings and arguments to recent research on transnationalism, Europeanization, and denationalization.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil Society, and Education
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

1132. Structure as Process:The Regularized Intergovernmentalism of Franco-German Bilateralism

Author:
Ulrich Krotz
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
This article systematically scrutinizes the intergovernmental and administrative aspects of Franco-German relations with the 1963 Elysée Treaty at their core. This treaty, together with its various additions and extensions, has defined the basic processes of bilateral interaction between the French and German states. Recurrent tension in Franco-German relations notwithstanding, many observers and participants have viewed France and Germany to be connected particularly closely since the 1960s. This article explores key elements of what it is that links France and Germany. Thereby it clarifies the concept of regularized inter governmentalism, suggests viewing this specific set of international practices from a social-structural perspective, and evaluates the effects and limits of such regularized procedures. Its findings suggest that bilateral structures have complemented and undergirded a broadly multilateral post-World War II world and are likely to continue to do so.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

1133. Social Content of the International Sphere: Symbols and Meaning in Franco-German Relations

Author:
Ulrich Krotz
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
“The Franco-German friendship is rich in memories and gestures that are at once important and symbolic, and that characterize the exceptional nature of the relationship between our two countries,” reflects former French economics minister and European Commission President Jacques Delors. Such symbolic acts and joint memories are not primarily about cooperation in specific instances. Rather, more generally, they denote what it means to act together. They lend significance to a relationship; they signify what is “at stake,” or what it is “all about.” They are about a deeper and more general social purpose underlying specific instances of cooperation. They are about the value and intrinsic importance that social relations incorporate. Symbols contribute to the institutionalization of social meaning and social purpose in dealing with one another. In this paper I clarify the concept of “predominantly symbolic acts and practices among states,” systematically explore such acts for the bilateral Franco-German relationship between the late 1950s and the mid-1990s, and scrutinize the specific meaning and effects that these practices have helped to generate and perpetuate.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

1134. National Role Conceptions and Foreign Policies:France and Germany Compared

Author:
Ulrich Krotz
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
In spite of domestic and international political changes, French and German foreign policies have displayed high degrees of continuity between the late 1950s and the mid-1990s. Over the same time period, the directions of the two states' foreign policies have also continued to differ from each other. Why do states similar in many respects often part ways in what they want and do? This article argues that the French and German national role conceptions (NRCs) account for both of these continuities. NRCs are domestically shared understandings regarding the proper role and purpose of one's own state as a social collectivity in the international arena. As internal reference systems, they affect national interests and foreign policies. This article reestablishes the NRC concept, empirically codes it for France and Germany for the time period under consideration, and demonstrates comparatively how different NRCs lead to varying interests and policies across the major policy areas in security, defense, and armament.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Germany

1135. European Monetary Union: between the stakeholder and the stockholder models of capitalism

Author:
Carlos A. Rozo
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
From the mid-1980s on a new attitude towards self-determination appeared in Western European integration. With the Maastricht Treaty of 1992 and, later, with the Amsterdam Treaty of 1997 the member countries of the European Community manifested their determination to be active players in the new international order. Accepting and instituting the single market and monetary union constituted, however, a challenge of compatibility between the traditional model of welfare European capitalism and the impositions coming from globalization under the neo-liberal model of Anglo-Saxon capitalism. This issue is examined here under two perspectives. The first reviews the implications which globalization has had on the European model of capitalism and the second the complications for monetary management as Europe moves from a nationally regulated to a union regulated financial structure.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

1136. Globalization and Security: Migration and Evolving Conceptions of Security in Statecraft and Scholarship

Author:
Christopher Rudolph
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
Does globalization shape the way states define their security interests? While few would question the fact that we live in an era of extraordinary change—technological, economic, social, and political—scholars disagree whether globalization is really something new and different, or simply the continuation of an enduring process that has proceeded for centuries (Cf. Chase-Dunn 1994; Rosenau 1997; Sassen 1998; Arrighi 1999; Wallerstein 1999; Castells 2000; Keohane and Nye 2000; Mittelman 2000). However, even skeptics concede that while the capitalist world-system has become increasingly global over the span of centuries, the speed and degree of globalization has increased tremendously in recent decades (Chase-Dunn 1999, 181). Even before George Bush popularized the term “new world order,” there was a growing sense that the changes brought about by processes of globalization were fundamentally changing world order and international politics—but in what sense?
Topic:
International Relations

1137. Security and the Political Economy of International Migration

Author:
Christopher Rudolph
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
Richard Rosecrance (1986) argues that the world has transformed into a system of trading states, where power is increasingly based on Ricardian notions of comparative advantage, factor mobility, and free trade. As gains from trade and interdependence increase, as they have under the past half-century of American hegemony, the use of a military-territorial strategy is a less appealing means of maximizing state power, especially since war has become increasingly costly, complicated, and destructive (Cf. Morgenthau, 1948; Kennedy, 1988; Mueller, 1989; Kupchan, 1994). Proponents of "Washington consensus" neoliberalism argue that liberal trade policies and laissez-faire treatment of international factor flows moves economies toward a Pareto-optimal frontier, one that will create a "rising tide to lift all boats" in both developed and developing nations, though perhaps not evenly (Krugman, 1995; Krugman and Venables, 1995; Krugman and Obstfeld, 1997). Considerable evidence supports the argument that trading state globalization has emerged as a global norm and as a widely accepted basis of state grand strategy since World War II. Since the 1940s, successive rounds of the GATT (now the WTO) have resulted in consistently lower tariff rates that have helped stimulate world trade. From 1980—1998, world trade has grown anywhere from 4.2% to 10.3%, and between 1990—1999 world trade has grown at over three times the rate of global output (World Bank, 1998; WTO, 2000). Moreover, financial transactions, once an adjunct of trade, now tower of trade flows by a ratio of 50:1 (Ruggie, 1995:48; see also Cohen, 1998).
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
America and Washington

1138. Should one bargain over two issues simultaneously or separately?

Author:
Bård Harstad
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
International negotiations on trade (e.g. GATT and TRIPS) have typically been of the package-form, and different issues have therefore been linked to each other. Trade issues have not been linked to e.g. environmental agreements in negotiations, however. This paper studies the outcome of linked bargaining, where two issues are simultaneously negotiated over by two countries. We notice that there always exist gains from linkages in bargaining, and that such linking will always occur in equilibrium if there is a pre-stage where the countries are bargaining over the agenda. The outcome under linked bargaining is compared with the outcome under separate negotiations, and the circumstances where a country will gain or lose from linking are characterized. The results help us to understand different countries' preferences for linkages in bargaining.
Topic:
International Relations, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

1139. Removing Small Arms from Society: A Review of Weapons Collection and Destruction Programmes

Author:
Sami Faltas, Glenn McDonald, and Camilla Waszink
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
A key component of efforts to curb small arms proliferation is the removal of these weapons from society. A broad range of programmes has been carried out in recent years—in every region of the world—for the purpose of collecting and/or disposing of small arms and light weapons. Weapons collection conducted in a peacetime setting for the purpose of reducing and preventing crime is often, though not always, voluntary in nature, with a wide variety of incentives (and sanctions) deployed for the purpose of recovering firearms from legal (and illegal) owners.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
Political Geography:
Central America

1140. Can Slovakia Catch Up? The Implications of EU Accession Talks a Year After the Helsinki Summit

Author:
Vladamir Bilcik
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Since the dissolution of Czecho-Slovakia in 1993, Slovakia, with its population of about 5.4 million, has emerged as one of the two new successor states. Yet, since gaining its independence Slovakia's political developments have followed a somewhat divergent path from the course of its new western neighbor - the Czech Republic. More broadly, Slovakia also diverged in its transition to democracy from Poland and Hungary, the other two Central European neighbors and two essential elements of the Visegrad group. As a result, Slovakia has been coined as "a region specific country". Its case of regime change from the communist to the post-communist rule has been described as "a borderline case between that of more advanced Central European and lagging South-East European countries". (Szomolanyi, 2000: 16).  Â
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe

1141. The Enduring Dilemmas of Realism in International Relations

Author:
Stefano Guzzini
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
After the end of the Cold War, realism has been again on the defensive. In recent years, two major discussions have been waged about it. The first debate was triggered by a piece John Vasquez published in the American Political Science Review. In this blunt attack, Vasquez basically argues that realists reject the systematic use of scientific criteria for assessing theoretical knowledge. Vasquez charges (neo) realism either for producing blatantly banal statements or for being non-falsifiable, i.e. ideological. For him, much of the post-Waltzian (neo) realist research results are but a series of Ptolemaic circles whose elaborate shape conceals the basic vacuity of the realist paradigm.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
America

1142. Realism and Foreign Policy Analysis

Author:
Stefano Guzzini and Sten Rynning
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Power politics, realists agree, is played by all, be it for reasons of human nature and/or international anarchy. But can one deduce from this general quest for power a theory on state motivations? Recent realist theories seem to agree with this idea in general, but disagree, indeed have opposite claims, about its content. Kenneth Waltz (1979) argues that states are defensive and thus “balance,” while John Mearsheimer (1990) contends that states are offensive and therefore “expand.” Classical realists, as usual, allow for more commonsense and hence variety. Hans Morgenthau (1948) thus included both status quo and imperialist powers in his theory. But the implication of this indeterminacy remains: if realists cannot settle the question which state motivation can be derived from human nature and/or international anarchy, then they need to examine more carefully the study of foreign policy.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Power Politics

1143. The 'Difference Engine': Constructing and Representing the International Identity of the European Union

Author:
Ian Manners
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to more fully develop the notion of the international identity of the EU previously suggested by Richard Whitman and myself. I will attempt to balance our previous focus on the 'active dimension' of the EU's attempts to 'assert its identity on the international scene' by looking at the 'reflexive dimension' of the EU's international identity from a more sociological perspective. This paper will argue that the distinctive polity perspectives and role representations of the EU can be thought of as a form of 'difference engine' which drives the construction and representation of the EU's international identity. Like Babbage's original difference engine, the EU's international identity is not a multiplier of difference, exaggerating the dissimilarities between the EU and the rest of the world through the generation of a new European supranational identity, but functions solely on the basis of addition - by adding an EU element to Europeans' complex and multifaceted identities.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Europe

1144. Another Sociology for IR? An Analysis of Niklas Luhmann's Conceptualisation of Power

Author:
Stefano Guzzini
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In the context of the present sociological turn in International Relations, this paper aims at relating theoretical discussions in International Relations to Niklas Luhmann's social theory. It proposes a dialogue through the analysis of power in Luhmann's theory, a concept which is often considered central in IR theorising. Given the frequently tautological use of power in social theory (and in particular in IR), many social theorists have tried to circumscribe the role of power in their theories. But Niklas Luhmann is one of the few non-individualist theoreticians who ends up having a very reduced role for power in his social theory.
Topic:
International Relations and Political Economy

1145. Political Science, International Relations, and AIDs in Africa

Author:
Catherine Boone and Jake Batsell
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
Political Science as an academic discipline has been slow to grapple with the enormous implications of the AIDS crisis for society, politics, and economy in much of the developing world. This paper argues that political scientists do, in fact, have much to offer the struggle to understand and respond to the AIDS crisis. It also argues that research in this area could contribute to theory-building in areas of traditional concern to political science. There is a rich array of research agendas linking AIDS and politics that are worthy of systematic attention. We sketch out five of these as they relate to Africa. They have to do with explaining variations in state response to the pandemic; the relationship between African governments and NGOs; the AIDS challenge to neo-liberalism; AIDS and North-South tensions; and connections between AIDS and international security issues. The discussion is intended to be suggestive; it is intended to provoke and encourage research and scholarly debate on these issues.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa

1146. Sobre Contagios y Remedios: La Heterodoxia Económica del New Deal, La Políca Exterior de Roosevelt y su Impacto sobre la Administracón Cerdenista

Author:
Joge Schiavon
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
The article explores the Mexico-United States bilateral relation during the administrations of Franklin D. Roosevelt and Lazaro Cardenas, in order to better understand how U.S. domestic and foreign policies influence the management of its relation with Mexico, which in turn can facilitate or not the implementation of public policies in the Mexican system. The principal hypothesis is that the New Deal modified the American liberal conception of state intervention in economic and social issues inside the United States, and that this permitted Cardenas' economic heterodoxy, both in political and ideological terms. Evidence is provided to support two points. First, the changes in U.S. foreign policy that resulted from the enactment of the Good Neighbor Policy invested the Cardenas administration with greater autonomy in economics issues. Second, the new economic ideas derived from the New Deal facilitated and justified increased state intervention of Cardenas' government in the economy, using fiscal policy and direct sate participation in economic areas defined as strategic. In sum, this article demonstrates that Roosevelt's domestic and foreign policies generated a permissive environment for the enactment of the most important public policies during the administration of Cardenas, supporting the idea that U.S. internal and international actions directly affect the possibilities of policy implementation in Mexico.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Mexico

1147. The Bush Administration and the Future of Transatlantic Relations

Author:
Peter Trubowitz
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This paper, the first of a planned two-part analysis, examines the institutions of paramilitarism, death squads, and warlords in Latin America, with a focus on the case-studies of Mexico and Peru. It begins with an overview of the small comparative literature on paramilitary movements and death squads around the world, seeking to define and clarify the terminology. The literature on "warlordism" is then reviewed, and the similarities and distinctions between paramilitaries and warlords are considered. Lastly, I examine two case-studies that have not, as yet, received extended attention in the comparative literature: Mexico and Colombia. The paper concludes by summarizing the findings and charting a course for future investigations.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, Latin America, and Mexico

1148. Technology Parks - Concept and Organization

Author:
Rado Petkov, Rick Petree, and Eugene Spiro
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
This study presents a conceptual and organizational framework for establishing a pilot technology park and incubator in Bulgaria. Such a park might initially focus on the telecommunication and information technology (IT) sector (including software development), where the country displays strong, albeit under-utilized, technical talent. The park might encompass an export-oriented IT service firm and an incubator that will nurture hi-tech companies and help them commercialize innovative ideas and technologies. The study presents the experience of leading technology parks and incubators in the U.S., Israel, India and elsewhere and draws upon an on-going project of the Institute for EastWest Studies to establish a technology incubator in Budapest. The purpose of the paper is to identify the existing models of technology parks and to suggest organizational, legal and management solutions that can be applied in Bulgaria.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Bulgaria

1149. Saudi-Italian Relations During the Reign of King Fahd

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In the hundred years that have elapsed since the birth of Saudi Arabia many important developments and changes have affected both this country and Italy. Still, whereas Saudi Arabia has progressed with remarkable political stability, Italy has suffered numerous shocks: the crisis and fall, after World War I, of the nationalist elites which had made Italy an independent and united country in the 19th century; the fall of the Fascist regime and the Savoy monarchy at the end of World War II; the emergence, during the Cold War, of a Western democracy run by the classes which the nationalist elite had excluded from the process of independence; today, after the end of the Cold War, the fall of the Catholic and communist parties that dominated the Cold War domestic stage and the painful attempt to establish a less ideologically-based, more market-oriented and liberal-minded democracy in the country.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, and Italy

1150. Think Tanks as a Cooperative Factor in NATO's Mediterranean Dialogue

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
This paper discusses the perspective of setting up a network of think tanks (NTTs) dealing with international relations and security in the framework of official regional security organizations (RSOs). The paper refers, in particular, to the NATO Mediterranean Dialogue (NMD). In 1997 and 1999, the task of promoting the establishment of a non-governmental network of institutes in the NMD framework was suggested in the Reports prepared by Rand for the Italian and, then, the Spanish Ministry of Defense. The same task was then included by the Mediterranean Cooperation Group (MCG) in its agenda. The first section considers the NTTs' role in shaping public foreign and security policy in general terms. The second section analyses the characters of the NMD as an RSO. The third section argues which kind of NTTs fits with the NMD and which tasks they can pursue.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

1151. Relations Between Italy and Libya

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Relations between Italy and Libya have oscillated over time, though broadly in tune with trends in international relations with this country. Despite oscillations, however, relations have never ceased to be important for both Italy and Libya.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Libya, North Africa, and Italy

1152. Europe and North Africa

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In the European geopolitical perspective, North Africa does not make much sense. Rather, European relations focuses on the Maghreb, the Arab Occident, which traditionally includes Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. Egypt, although part to North Africa, belongs geopolitically to another framework, i.e. the Mashreq, the Arab Orient.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
Europe, Algeria, Arab Countries, North Africa, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia

1153. Participation, Consultation, and Economic Reform in Africa: Economic Fora and the EG-DG Nexus

Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
Economic restructuring, in spite of the social and political dislocations it can cause, remains an essential step in the process of growth and development for most developing countries. While conditions differ throughout the developing world, nearly all countries still struggle with the question of how to integrate economies in varying states of disrepair and non-competitiveness into the highly competitive global economy in a way that will provide for basic needs and ensure growth. At the same time, most of these countries are attempting to initiate or consolidate delicate and difficult transitions from authoritarian to democratic governance. This dual transition poses an important challenge for donors and others who support developing countries in their pursuit of democracy and growth.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa

1154. Aftermath: Women and Women's Organizations In Postconflict Societies: The Role Of International Assistance

Author:
Krishna Kumar
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
<p> Since the end of the Cold War, intrastate conflicts have increased worldwide. Poverty, the struggle for scarce resources, declining standards of living, ethnic rivalries and divisions, political repression by authoritarian governments, and rapid social and economic modernization—all these factors contribute to intrastate conflicts. <br /><br /> All intrastate conflicts share a set of common characteristics that have major implications for women and gender relations. First, the belligerent parties deliberately inflict violence on civilian populations. Second, the intrastate conflicts displace substantial numbers of people, mostly women and children. Third, women’s participation in war contributes to the redefinition of their identities and traditional roles. Fourth, there is usually a conscious attempt to destroy the supporting civilian infrastructure, leading to increased poverty and starvation. Finally, these conflicts leave among the belligerent groups within the countries a legacy of bitterness, hatred, and anger that is difficult to heal. </p><blockquote><p> </p> </blockquote><p>  </p><p> </p><p> </p>
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Gender Issues, Human Welfare, Politics, and War

1155. Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015

Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The ballistic missile remains a central element in the military arsenals of nations around the globe and almost certainly will retain this status over the next fifteen years. States willingly devote often scarce resources in efforts to develop or acquire ballistic missiles; build the infrastructures necessary to sustain future development and production; and actively pursue technologies, materials, and personnel on the world market to compensate for domestic shortfalls, gain increased expertise, and potentially shorten development timelines.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

1156. Workshop on Information Technology in Africa

Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The last 20 years have been characterized by rapid improvements in information technology and have com e to be regarded as the “Information Revolution.” The Information Revolution is changing the speed at which information is communicated, the facility with which calculations can be conducted in real time, and the costs and speed of observation of physical phenomena. Applications of IT in transportation mean that people and goods can be moved m o re efficiently; applications to the production process mean that goods and services can be produced m o re efficiently.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Africa

1157. Global Humanitarian Emergencies: Trends and Projections, 2001-2002

Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The capacity and willingness of the international community to respond to humanitarian emergencies will continue to be stretched through December 2002. The overall number of people in need of emergency humanitarian assistance—now approximately 42 million—is likely to increase: Five ongoing emergencies—in Afghanistan, Burundi, Colombia, North Korea and Sudan—cause almost 20 million people to be in need of humanitarian assistance as internally displaced persons (IDPs), refugees, or others in need in their home locations. All these emergencies show signs of worsening through 2002. In addition, humanitarian conditions may further deteriorate in populous countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DROC) or Indonesia. The total number of humanitarian emergencies—20—is down from 25 in January 2000. Of the current emergencies: Eleven are in countries experiencing internal conflict—Afghanistan, Angola, Burundi, Colombia, DROC, Indonesia, Russia/Chechnya, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka, Sudan, and Uganda. Two—in Iraq and North Korea—are due largely to severe government repression. The remaining six—in Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Yugoslavia—are humanitarian emergencies that have entered the transitional stage beyond prolonged conflict, repressive government policies, and/or major natural disasters. The primary cause of the emergency in Tajikistan is drought. Several other countries currently experiencing humanitarian emergencies—Afghanistan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, North Korea, Somalia, and Sudan—also are affected by major, persistent natural disasters.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, North Korea, and Somalia

1158. Russia in the International System

Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Russia's Foreign Policy Russian foreign policy in the coming years will be characterized by weakness; frustration--primarily with the United States as the world's preeminent power--over Russia's diminished status; generally cautious international behavior; and a drive to resubjugate, though not reintegrate, the other former Soviet states. The international situation affords Russia time to concentrate on domestic reforms because, for the first time in its history, it does not face significant external threats. But rather than use the breathing space for domestic reforms, Putin is as much--if not more--focused on restoring Russia's self-defined rightful role abroad and seeking to mold the CIS into a counterweight to NATO and the European Union. The Outside World's Views of Russia Russia does not have any genuine allies. Some countries are interested in good relations with Russia, but only as a means to another end. For example, China sees Russia as a counterweight to the United States but values more highly its ties with the United States. Some countries see Russia as a vital arms supplier but resent Russia also selling arms to their rivals (China-India, Iran-Iraq). Pro-Russia business lobbies exist in Germany, Italy, Turkey, and Israel (one-fifth of whose population now consists of Soviet émigres), but they do not single-handedly determine national policies. Europe is the only region that would like to integrate Russia into a security system, but it is divided over national priorities and institutional arrangements as well as put off by some Russian behavior. Most CIS governments do not trust their colossal neighbor, which continues to show an unsettling readiness to intervene in their internal affairs, though they know Russia well and are to a considerable degree comfortable in dealing with it. Turkey has developed an improved dialogue and an unprecedented number of economic ties with Russia during the post-Cold War period, but this more positive pattern of relations has not fully taken root, and Ankara remains suspicious of Moscow's intentions. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moscow's role in the Middle East has been reduced, but Israel, Syria, Egypt, Libya, and Iraq all favor good relations with Russia. Mutual interests also override disagreements in Russian-Iranian relations, but Tehran is wary of Russian behavior, particularly toward Saddam Hussein. India still trusts Russia--a sentiment that is perhaps a residue of the genuine friendship of Cold War days--but clearly not in the same way it once did, and New Delhi fears that weakness will propel Russia into doing things that could drive India further away. In East Asia, the most substantial breakthrough has been the resurrected relationship between Russia and China, one that entails significant longer-term risk for Russia. Other countries in the region value their links with Moscow as a means to balance a more powerful China, or as a useful component of their larger political and economic strategies, but Russia's role in East Asia--as elsewhere--remains constrained by the decline in its political, military, and economic power over the last decade. Russia's Weakness Russia's weakness stems from long-term secular trends and from its domestic structure. In essence, the old nomenklatura and a few newcomers have transformed power into property on the basis of personal networks and created an equilibrium resting on insider dealings. These insiders may jockey for position but have a vested interest in preserving the system. The public does not like the system but is resigned to it and gives priority to the preservation of order. As for the economy, it is divided into a profitable, internationally integrated sector run by oligarchs and a much larger, insulated, low-productivity, old-style paternalistic sector that locks Russia into low growth. No solace will be forthcoming from the international business and energy worlds. They do not expect the poor commercial climate to improve greatly and will not increase investments much beyond current levels until it does. Militarily, Russia will also remain weak. Its nuclear arsenal is of little utility, and Moscow has neither the will nor the means to reform and strengthen its conventional forces. Hope for the Future? The best hope for change in Russia lies with the younger generation. Several participants reported that under-25 Russians have much more in common with their US counterparts, including use of the Internet, than with older Soviet generations. But there was some question over whether the new generation would change the system or adapt to it. Others placed some hope in international institutions, for instance the World Trade Organization, eventually forcing Russia to adapt to the modern world. Dissenting Views Some participants dissented from the overall forecast of depressing continuity. The keynote speaker, James Billington, stated that Russia would not be forever weak and that the current confusion would end in a few years either through the adoption of authoritarian nationalism or federated democracy. One scholar felt the Chechen war was feeding ethnic discord in other areas of the Federation to which Moscow would respond with increased authoritarianism, not necessarily successfully. Finally, a historian observed that the patience of Russians is legendary but not infinite, meaning that we should not be overly deterministic.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Development
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Middle East, and Israel

1159. North Korea's Engagement—Perspectives, Outlook, and Implications

Author:
Mitchell B. Reiss
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The National Intelligence Council (NIC) held a conference on 23 February 2001 in cooperation with the Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress on "North Korea's Engagement—Perspectives, Outlook and Implications." The conference featured discussion of seven commissioned papers that are published in this report. Sixty government and nongovernment specialists participated in the conference. Following is a brief summary of the views of the specialists.
Topic:
International Relations and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, and North Korea

1160. The Third Yugoslavia, 1992 - 2001

Author:
Sabrina P. Ramet
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
The Milosevic regime was a classic example of what has been called a “democradura,” i.e., a system which combined some of the mechanisms of democracy (with the result that Milosevic's Socialists were, at one point, forced to enter into a coalition with Seselj's Radicals, in order to form a government) with many overtly authoritarian features (among which one might mention the constriction of press freedom, the use of the police against the political opposition, and systematic violations of human rights). It was also a regime which drew its energy from the manipulation of Serbian nationalism, even if, as has been argued, Milosevic himself was not an ideological nationalist. To the extent that xenophobia lay at the heart of Serbian nationalism, the regime found itself relying on an ideology which consisted of an explicit repudiation of such values as tolerance, equality of peoples, respect for the harm principle, and individual rights.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Yugoslavia

1161. Decentralization and Regionalization after Communism: Lessons from Administrative and Territorial Reform in Poland and the Czech Republic

Author:
Jennifer Yoder
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
While the regional level of authority has gained much attention in recent years in Western Europe, Eastern Europe is still emerging from decades of centralization and homogenization under communism. Several post-communist countries, however, have taken steps toward administrative decentralization and territorial regionalization. This article explores possible reasons for taking these steps and traces the progress of administrative and territorial reform in two post-communist cases: Poland and the Czech Republic. The conclusion considers several implications of these reforms for domestic politics and foreign relations.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

1162. The Limits of Conditionality: Nuclear Reactor Safety in Central and Eastern Europe, 1991 - 2001

Author:
John Van Oudenaren
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Conditionality has become an increasingly prominent feature of international politics in recent years.1 Once mainly associated with the macroeconomic stabilization programs of the IMF, since the collapse of communism it has been used by the EU, NATO, the OECD, and the Council of Europe to promote a variety of political, economic, and social objectives – everything from abolishing the death penalty to privatizing national monopolies. With increased use has come increased controversy. Critics of conditionality argue that it is often applied in ways that ride roughshod over national sovereignty, ignore local circumstances, and impose economic hardship. Others note the frequent inability of recipients of conditional aid to fulfill commitments to international donors. Even when measured by its own narrow objectives, they argue, conditionality often fails.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

1163. MAP Reading: NATO's and Russia's Pathways to European Military Integration

Author:
Stephen Blank
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
As part of NATO's and Europe's continuing and open-ended processes of enlargement and military-political integration, in 1999, NATO presented aspiring members with a Membership Action Plan (MAP) to guide them in their activities preparing their governments and armed forces for membership in NATO. The MAP, if fulfilled according to NATO's requirements and approbation, allegedly would make the aspiring members' military forces more nearly congruent or interoperable with NATO forces. With this document, NATO has arguably created its own version of the EU's acquis communautaire “against which the Alliance can assess the technical preparations and capacities of the nine MAP partners and judge their readiness for membership.”
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

1164. Bosnia: Reshaping the International Machinery

Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After six years and billions of dollars spent, peace implementation in Bosnia and Herzegovina remains far from complete. Reshaping (ërecalibratingí, in local jargon) the international community (IC) presence is vital if the peace process is to have a successful outcome.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia and Eastern Europe

1165. Bosnia's Precarious Economy: Still not Open for Business

Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Bosnia's economic reality is still bleak. After more than five years and five billion dollars of Dayton implementation, the country seems only at the beginning of an economic transition that should have begun in 1996.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Bosnia and Eastern Europe

1166. EU CRISIS RESPONSE CAPABILITY: Institutions and Processes for Conflict Prevention and Management

Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
It is less than a decade since the European Union (EU) was formally established and set itself the ambitious project of developing a common foreign and security policy. Less than four years have passed since the signing of the Amsterdam Treaty which provided key institutional foundations of that policy. And it is less than eighteen months since many of the bodies responsible for implementing the most difficult aspects – those related directly to crisis response – have been created. This process may be well appreciated by those closely involved in it, but it is opaque and puzzling to many others. This report aims to clarify the process for those outside it. It describes the roles of the new bodies, their relationship to previously existing ones, and the basic fit between their functions and the goals of conflict prevention and management. This report is largely descriptive, but its analysis of the institutions and processes does provide a foundation for some recommendations for improvement as the EU carries its work forward.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Europe

1167. The European Humanitarian Aid Office (ECHO): Crisis Response in the Grey Lane

Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
This briefing paper examines in broad terms likely directions in the policy of the European Humanitarian Aid Office (ECHO) in the next two to three years, with special reference to its position in the development of European Union (EU) crisis response structures and processes. Its particular focus is on how ECHO has responded to the "grey area" dilemmas: whether and how to separate emergency humanitarian assistance from longer term development assistance, and from "political" projects generally. Section I provides an overview of ECHO's structure and funding; Section II describes how the grey area has been addressed to date; Section III discusses how the issue arises again in the context of the development of the EU's new conflict prevention and management ambitions; while the concluding Section IV draws upon recent experience in Macedonia to support the case for a more pragmatic approach to ECHO's role.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Europe and Macedonia

1168. HIV/AIDS as a Security Issue

Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
It is projected that, at current rates, more than 100 million people worldwide will have been infected with HIV by 2005. Where the epidemic has hit hardest, Sub-Saharan Africa, experts believe AIDS will eventually kill one in four adults. Seven countries already have adult prevalence rates above 20 per cent of the population.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Europe, India, Asia, and Southeast Asia

1169. Albania: The State of the Nation 2001

Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
This report describes the current situation in Albania, paying particular attention to relations with the country's Balkan neighbours, Kosovo, Montenegro, Macedonia and Greece. The recent upsurge in fighting in the Presevo Valley of southern Serbia and in Macedonia has damaged the reputation of all Albanians in the region and has once more raised the spectre of a Greater Albania. Consequently, the Albanian government has been at pains to stress that it does not support the ethnic Albanian insurgents and wishes to see the territorial integrity of Macedonia upheld. To this end, Tirana has requested NATO's assistance to secure the Albania-Macedonia border, and has called for a solution to the crisis through dialogue.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Greece, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, and Tirana

1170. The Macedonian Question: Reform or Rebellion

Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In late February, violence flared in Albanian-inhabited villages in northern Macedonia close to the border with Kosovo. In mid March, the violence spread to Macedonia's second largest city, Tetovo. The rebels claimed to be defending themselves against Macedonian security forces, i.e. their own government, and to be fighting for Albanian national rights in Macedonia. The coalition government in Skopje promptly raised the alarm, blaming Kosovo Albanian elements for exporting rebellion to Macedonia, and calling for the NATO-led forces in Kosovo (KFOR) to seal the border. The rebels claimed they were local Albanians, numbering 2,000 and recruiting dozens of volunteers from the surrounding area every day.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Macedonia, and Albania

1171. Montenegro: Time to Decide. A Pre-election Briefing

Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The extraordinary parliamentary election to be held in Montenegro on 22 April 2001 is focused on the single issue of the republics future status, whether in a continued federal union with Serbia, or as an independent state. The election was called following the break-up of Montenegros ruling coalition at the end of December 2000 over this very question. Following the ouster of Slobodan Miloević as president of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) in October 2000, Montenegrin President Milo Djukanović opted to formalise the republics break with the FRY, which in practice had already ceased to function in any meaningful sense. On 28 December 2000 two of the parties in the ruling .For a Better Life. (D.B) coalition, Djukanovićs Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and the Social Democratic party (SDP), adopted a new Platform on relations with Serbia, which envisaged a loose association of fully independent states. The anti independence Peoples Party (NS) promptly left the DŽB coalition, thus precipitating the forthcoming election.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Serbia

1172. Social Citizenship and Institution Building:EU-Enlargement and the Restructuring of Welfare States in East Central Europe

Author:
Christiane Lemke
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
With the EU-enlargement process well underway, this paper focuses on social citizenship as a conceptual frame for analyzing the restructuring of social institutions in applicant countries in East Central Europe. So far, comparative welfare state analysis has concentrated mainly on the developed economies of the OECD-countries; there is little systematic analytical work on the transitions in post-communist Europe. Theoretically, this paper builds on comparative welfare state analysis as well as on new institutionalism. The initial hypothesis is built on the assumption that emerging patterns of social support and social security diverge from the typology described in the comparative welfare state literature inasmuch as the transformation of postcommunist societies is distinctly different from the building of welfare states in Europe. The paper argues that institutionbuilding is shaped by and embedded in the process of European integration and part of governance in the EU. Anticipating full membership in the European Union, the applicant countries have to adapt to the rules and regulations of the EU, including the “social acquis”. Therefore, framing becomes an important feature of institutional changes. The paper seeks to identify distinct patterns and problems of the institutionalization of social citizenship.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe

1173. (Re)Constructing Constructivist International Relations Research

Author:
Wayne Sandholtz, Hayward R. Alker, Raymond Duvall, Cecelia Lynch, Daniel Lynch, Stephen Majeski, Nicholas Onuf, Colin Wight, Robert English, Saori Katada, and J. Ann Tickner
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
On October 6, 2001 the Center for International Studies at the University of Southern California held a workshop entitled “(Re)Constructing Constructivist International Relations Research.” This workshop joins a series held by CIS on cutting edge research in international relations. Participants were sent a statement composed by Hayward Alker and a copy of Nicholas Onuf's paper and asked to bring written comments based on these two documents.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
California

1174. Patterns of Trade and Foreign Direct Investment in Africa—A simple test of the new trade theory with multinationals

Author:
Lars C. Svindal and Leo A. Grünfeld
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In this study, we present an empirical survey of the patterns of trade and FDI in Africa based on a sample of 28 countries and their transactions with the OECD countries. These patterns are used to test whether the predictions of the new trade theory with multinationals as described by Markusen and Venables (1995,1998) fit the development in Africa. The theory states that multinational production will gradually outgrow trade as countries converge in terms of income, yet our econometric study gives only week evidence supporting such a pattern. Alternative explanations are also investigated,and it is shown that trade barriers, geographical distance, income per capita and access to ocean explain much of the variation in trade and FDI in Africa.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa

1175. Notes Toward a Theory of Multilevel Governing in Europe

Author:
Fritz W. Scharpf
Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
The complexity of the multi-level European polity is not adequately represented by the single-level theoretical concepts of competing "intergovernmentalist" and "supranationalist" approaches. By contrast, empirical research focusing on multilevel interactions tends either to emphasize the uniqueness of its objects, or to create novel concepts – which are likely to remain contested even among Europeanists and have the effect of isolating European studies from the political science mainstream in International Relations and Comparative Politics. These difficulties are bound to continue as long as researchers keep proposing holistic concepts that claim to represent the complex reality of the European polity as a whole. It is suggested that the present competition among poorly fitting and contested generalizations could be overcome if European studies made use of a plurality of simpler and complementary concepts, each of which is meant to represent the specific characteristics of certain subsets of multi-level interactions – which could also be applied and tested in other fields of political-science research. The paper goes on to describe four distinct modes of multi-level interaction in the European polity – "mutual adjustment", "intergovernmental negotiations", "joint-decision making", and "hierarchical direction" – and to discuss their characteristics by reference to the criteria of problem-solving capacity and institutional legitimacy.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

1176. ASEM 3: More Talk or Move Forward?

Author:
Yeo Lay Hwee
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The Third ASEM Summit (ASEM 3) was held in Seoul on 20-21 October 2000. Openly, those who participated in the meeting, and several of the Asian newspapers, particularly the Korean papers, were happy to hail the meeting as a "success". What does it mean? With the presence of all heavy-weight European and Asian leaders - Tony Blair, Jacques Chirac, Gerhard Schroeder, Zhu Rongji, Yoshiro Mori, Abdurrahman Wahid, and the adoption of three Documents - The Chairman's Statement; Seoul Declaration for Peace on the Korean Peninsula; and the Asia-Europe Cooperation Framework 2000, it is possibly the best outcome one could hope for under the cloud of rumours of forum-fatigue, acrimonious debates about human rights, increasing divergences and complaints on the slow progress of some key initiatives such as the Trade Facilitation Action Plan (TFAP) during the preparatory process. That the meeting was held smoothly under tight security without any major disruptions from anti-globalisation protestors was another triumph for the Korean government, especially in the wake of a series of street protests and demonstrations that targeted and disrupted several international meetings since the Seattle fiasco in November last year.
Topic:
International Relations and Government
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia

1177. The fall of Milosevic and the Kosovo problem

Author:
Kenneth Schmidt Hansen
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Despite all precautions taking by Slobodan Milosevic the Presidential elections held in Yugoslavia 24 September 2000 turned out to be his Waterloo. It is an outspread belief that the political regime in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia that Slobodan Milosevic represented was one of the last obstacles to bringing peace and stability to the Balkans. Despite this outspread belief, it is in this paper argued that the problems in Kosovo are not just the product of the policy pursued by Milosevic which implies that they not necessarily will be easier solved in the years to come even though a democratic revolution has taken place in Yugoslavia. No solution to the Kosovo problem seems available that will satisfy both the Serbs and the Kosovo-Albanians. But perhaps most interesting, it seems reasonable to argue that even maintaining status quo, i.e. not deciding for the final status of Kosovo, might turn out to be a problem for the current democratic developments in Belgrade.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Albania

1178. Back in the U.S.S.R.? Russia as an Actor in World Politics

Author:
Mette Skak
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The gap between the structural reality surrounding Russia and the cognitive level of Russian foreign policy making is highlighted. The literature on Russian foreign policy is reviewed, distinguishing between 'optimists' and 'pessimists'. The analysis differentiates between 'milieu goals' and 'possession goals' and traces the pursuit of these goals in Czarist Russian, Soviet and postcommunist Russian foreign policy. The conclusion is that possession goals – hard-core realism, as it were – remain the dominant feature of Russian foreign policy (as in the Soviet era). This challenges the theory of democratic peace. This finding is then subjected to a policy-oriented criticism of Russian foreign policy. Three examples of dysfunctional Russian foreign policy are addressed: the misguided pursuit of multipolarity, myth and reality about regional priorities, and Russian self-destructive partisanship in ex-Yugoslavia. The final section raises the eternal Russian questions of Kto vinovat? and Shto delat'?On the causal factors behind the observed traits of irrationality, the analysis emphasises the volatile, 'praetorian' decision-making environment. Concerning policy implications, the dialogue with Russia must address features of realism, for instance by marketing the virtue of internal balancing, and as for concessions, formally dismiss foreign policy doctrines of spheres-of-influence like the Monroe doctrine as anachronistic in an era of globalization.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia

1179. Integration Policy: Between Foreign Policy and Diffusion

Author:
Morten Kelstrup
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This working paper is a discussion of the concept of “integration policy” and its application, in particular to the study of policies of individual states towards European integration. The paper takes its point of departure in traditional studies of foreign policy. It illustrates different approaches to the study of foreign policy. It claims that when we are dealing with policy towards integration, for instance European integration, focus has to be redirected from the study of foreign policy to what we might call integration policy. Different dimensions of integration policy are specified. European integration is interpreted at being somewhere between intergovernmental cooperation and supranational decision making. It is shown how integration policy, as integration become more intense, will develop into a proliferated and multidimensional set of policies and possibly develop further into “diffusion”. The overall contribution of the paper is to conceptualise a new, grey area and to contribute to the study of different kinds of integration policy.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

1180. The United States, Japan, and China: Setting the Course

Author:
Neil E. Silver
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The political dynamics of China-Japan relations have changed in reaction to three events: the demise of bipolar world politics, China's ''rise,'' and Japan's unexpected economic stall. These changed political dynamics have brought important challenges and consequences for the United States.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

1181. Pruebas Nucleares en el Sur de Asia: Las Razones y las Repercusiones

Author:
Varun Sahni
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
On May 11, 1998, India conducted three underground nuclear tests, followed by two more 48 hours later. Two weeks later, Pakistan responded with six nuclear tests of its own. The purpose of this document is to analyze the reasons behind the Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests as well as their innumerable implications. To facilitate analysis, the study is divided into two parts. In the first, the reasons that propelled the governments of India and Pakistan to a posture of overt nuclearization are analyzed. In both cases, the nuclear tests were the result of diverse factors, ranging from security concerns to domestic political calculations to considerations of international prestige. In the second part of the document the impact of the Indian and Pakistani actions are analyzed on four well-defined levels: internal, bilateral, regional and global.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Middle East, and India

1182. Three and a Half Centuries of the Westphalian State System

Author:
Varun Sahni
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This short paper studies how the international system has evolved over the last 350 years through an identification of its most important features. The paper has a pedagogic rather than research orientation, and is divided into three sections. The first section analyzes the most significant features of international relations from the Peace of Westphalia (1648) to the Second World War. It demonstrates how, over the centuries, the evolution of alliances and the rise of a peace norm transformed a war system into a peace system, thereby mitigating the basic systemic condition of anarchy on the salient structural characteristics of the sovereign state system. The second section studies international relations during the Cold War, with the focus on the strategic, economic, ideological and cultural factors that defined the international system during that period. The third section of the paper analyzes international relations since the fall of the Berlin Wall. The various developments and trends that are leading to systemic change are examined. Despite the sundry challenges posed to the state by non-state actors, the rise of new issue-areas and sub-systemic supranational integration, the sovereign state and the Westphalian system is expected to endure.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Development, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Berlin and Westphalia

1183. Drug Trafficking in US-Mexican Relations: The Politics of Simulation

Author:
Jorge Chabat
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This document presents the hypothesis that the Mexican and U.S. governments are trapped in their current anti-drug strategy. This strategy causes high levels of violence and corruption in Mexican territory, and cannot be changed because it responds to pressures exerted by American public opinion on its own government. One of the consequences is that the U.S. government is compelled annually to certify the Mexican government's fight against drugs. This certification constrains an accurate evaluation of Mexico's combat against narcotrafficking, because it tends to underestimate failures and exaggerate accomplishments. Nevertheless, the possibility of change in the anti-drug strategy is limited, so this scenario is expected to endure for several years. In this sense on can also expect a better integration f Mexican and U.S. anti-drug policies in the near and medium term.
Topic:
International Relations, Crime, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, America, North America, and Mexico

1184. International Explanations for Stock Market Opening

Author:
Susan Minushkin
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
Most studies on financial market liberalization focus on wealthy countries, emphasizing international, economic or domestic political factors as explanations for financial liberalization or have specified the conditions under which one factor dominates in causal significance. They have not tested whether their arguments are applicable to the middle-income countries that comprise the 'emerging markets.' Focusing on these countries, this paper seeks to isolate and test a series of propositions derived from international approaches. The main contribution of this article is to provide some first-cut testing of the existing hypotheses, as a guide for other researchers in terms of the timing, pace and style of financial opening in middle-income countries.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance

1185. Identity, Empathy and International Relations

Author:
Rhoda E. Howard-Hassmann
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
Abstract:
The insertion of identity politics into international relations undermines the capacity for cosmopolitan empathy, a capacity that might be useful in ameliorating some of the world's social problems. Empathy is the capacity to put oneself into another's shoes and recognize a stranger's humanity. The useful post-modern stress on the mutability of identity has hardened in identity politics into the creation of exclusive social categories of Oppressed and Oppressor. The social creation of such categories through such devices as the politics of amnesia paves the way for isolationist indifference. Yet data drawn both from the sociology of genocide and from the author's own research shows that humanitarian empathy across lines of identity is possible.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil Society, and Imperialism

1186. The Dynamics of Coordination

Author:
Marc Sommers
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
This study takes a fresh look at coordination dynamics by exploring two situations that were noteworthy both for the difficult challenges humanitarian organizations faced and for their innovative responses. The cases shed light on coordination in general and two contexts in particular: coordination for a country (Sierra Leone in the 1990s) and coordination for refugee camps (Rwandan refugees in Ngara District, Tanzania).
Topic:
International Relations, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Tanzania and Rwanda

1187. Redefining Sovereignty . The Use of Force After the End of the Cold War. New Options, Lawful and Legitimate?

Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The conference was organised by the Institute for International Affairs (IAI) with the support of the Centre for High Defence Studies (CASD), the German Marshall Fund of the United States, the NATO Office for Information and Press and the Thyssen Foundation. It was held in Rome, at the Centre for High Defence Studies, on 24 and 25 November 2000.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, NATO, Cold War, Human Rights, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Germany, and Rome

1188. Report of the Conference on "Ukraine's European Choice and the Partnership with Poland and Italy"

Author:
Giovanni Gasparini
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), Italy's major international affairs think tank organised an international conference on “Ukraine's European Choice and the Partnership with Poland and Italy”, in cooperation with the Ukrainian and the Polish Embassies in Rome. The event took place in Rome on 22nd March 2000 and was supported by the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the NATO Office of Information and Press, the Office of the European Commission in Rome, and the Centre for European and International Studies and the Institute of International Relations, Kyiv.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, NATO, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Italy, and Rome

1189. The Paradox of Disconnected Coalitions

Author:
J. Steven Brams, A. Michael Jones, and Marc D. Kilgour
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
The paradox of disconnected coalitions is that "disconnected" coalitions can arise from the "connected" (i.e., single-peaked) preferences of as few as five or six players. Two models of coalition formation are analyzed in which the paradox can occur, in both of which players coalesce when they all find each other mutually acceptable: Fallback (FB): Players seek coalition partners by descending lower and lower in their preferences until a majority coalition emerges. Build-Up (BU): Same as FB, except that when nonmajority subcoalitions form, they fuse into composite players, and the descent restarts.
Topic:
International Relations and Diplomacy

1190. Reassessing the Logic of Anarchy: Rationality versus Reflexivity

Author:
Ewan Harrison
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
Drawing on the insights of constructivism and recent attempts to develop a liberal model of international relations, this paper compares neorealism, institutionalism and liberalism in terms of their competing conceptualisations of the composition and dynamics of the international system. It argues that prominent institutionalists have mistakenly interpreted neorealism as a rationalist model of the international system in order to develop their own arguments countering its central propositions. Rather than relying on rational actor assumptions, neorealism instead adopts a reflexive logic focusing on processes of identity construction and socialisation arising from the generative consequences of international anarchy. Thus whilst neorealism and liberalism differ fundamentally in terms of their assessment of the nature and long term consequences of international anarchy, they may actually be closer to each other in terms of their conceptualisation of system composition and dynamics than neorealism and institutionalism. On the basis of this argument, the paper rejects a 'linear' understanding of the relationship between neorealism, institutionalism and liberalism in which institutionalism is seen as providing the point of synthesis on a spectrum than runs between neorealism and liberalism. Instead, it proposes a 'triangular' understanding of the relationship between these three models of the international system in which the debates between neorealists and institutionalists constitute its rationalist leg, and debates between neorealists and liberals constitute its reflexivist leg. Understood in these terms, liberalism's focus on the generative consequences of international anarchy and the overall trajectory of identity construction and socialisation within the international system is likely to be more productive in the search for a general synthesis of competing theories of international relations than institutionalists' attempts to refine rationalist models.
Topic:
International Relations

1191. The Global Trend of Civil Politics: The World Handbook IV Project

Author:
J. Craig Jenkins, Zeynep Benderlioglu, and Charles Lewis Taylor
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
Contemporary discussions of global civil politics provide wildly different pictures of contemporary trends. Some see the end of the Cold War as unleashing a series of ethnic wars, geno/politicides, state breakdowns, rising criminality and a gradual descent into civil chaos (Rosenau 1990; Crevald 1991; Kaplan 2000). Others proclaim an "end of history" with the spread of democracy, capitalism, social peace and growing civility (Fukuyama 1991). Paralleling the latter, some have advanced a “social movement society” thesis (Meyer and Tarrow 1998) arguing that the globalization of civil society has internationalized social movements and protest, creating new transnational social movements and the creation of a truly global civil society. In contrast, others see a narrowing of the civil order with new mini-nationalisms, spreading ethnic intolerance and the rise of new civilizational struggles (Huntington 1996).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Globalization, and Politics

1192. East Asia and the United States: Current Status and Five-Year Outlook

Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The National Intelligence Council and the Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress held a one-day unclassified conference on this topic on 17 February 2000, at the Thomas Jefferson Building of the Library of Congress. Seven papers by nongovernment specialists and 11 commentaries by Intelligence Community specialists examined: The likely development of greater divergence or convergence between key East Asian states and the United States over US policies and interests in the region. Whether divergence or convergence between East Asian states and the United States was more likely on security, economic, or political/values questions. In what ways East Asian states would be likely to collaborate in opposition to US policies and interests. Sixty US Intelligence Community, other Executive Branch, congressional, and nongovernment experts participated actively in discussions following the formal papers and commentaries, reinforcing the findings presented below.
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States and East Asia

1193. Bosnia's November Elections: Dayton Stumbles

Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Despite five years and five billion US dollars of international community investment in Bosnia, the 11 November Bosnian elections demonstrated once again that international engagement has failed to provide a sustainable basis for a functioning state, capable of surviving an international withdrawal.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, Bosnia, and Eastern Europe

1194. Montenegro's Socialist People's Party: A Loyal Opposition?

Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The assertion of the primacy of Serbian rights over all other peoples by Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic has driven nearly every nationality of the former Yugoslavia toward the Republic's exits. Even Montenegro, once Serbia's closest political and military ally, has not been immune from the turmoil that Slobodan Milosevic has created and has opted to distance itself from Belgrade's controlling influence.
Topic:
International Relations, Non-Governmental Organization, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Montenegro

1195. Albanians in Serbian Prisons: Kosovo's Unfinished Business

Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With the immense challenges facing the international community in its effort to secure and rebuild Kosovo, one critical outstanding matter that has received very little attention is the ongoing detention in Serbian prisons of several thousand Kosovar Albanians. Arrested by Serbian forces in the course of the Kosovo conflict, these prisoners were hastily transferred to Serbian jails and penitentiaries in the wake of the Kumanovo military-technical agreement, which ended the NATO air campaign and established a timetable for the withdrawal from Kosovo of all Serb forces.
Topic:
International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Albania

1196. Women's Rights are Human Rites: Women's human rights activists as cross-cultural theorists

Author:
Brooke A. Ackerly
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
The familiar human rights paradigm, manifested in the Universal Declaration on Human Rights and subsequent related international documents, is problematic. It cannot deal with 1) rights violations associated with a country's cultural norms that define what it means to be “human” and 2) rights violations that do not take the paradigmatic form of discrimination. Further, the framework for human rights set out by the Universal Declaration on Human Rights is insufficient for 3) adjudicating between seemingly competing liberal rights or between liberal and other rights, 4) attributing responsibility for human rights violations by state and non-state actors, attributing responsibility for structural causes of human rights violations, or imputing political import to private actions, and 5) reconciling the concept of universal human rights with cultural norms that violate certain universal human rights. These five problems are interrelated. Cross- cultural human rights theorizing is promising, but in its current articulations, it tends to focus on the last of these five problems. Moreover, it relies either on models of discourse that are exclusionary or on models of culture articulated by elites. Drawing on the theory implicit in their actions, I argue that women's human rights activists give us a way of theorizing that addresses the problems with the existing paradigm without being exclusive or elitist.
Topic:
International Relations, Gender Issues, and Human Rights

1197. 'So how do you do culture?': A workshop to discuss methodological approaches to studying culture in International Relations

Author:
Patricia M. Goff and Jacinta O'Hagan
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
Increasingly, scholars of International Relations are acknowledging that attention to the various dimensions of culture can expand our understanding of world politics. This workshop was premised on the assumption that culture is a significant factor in international relations. Its objective was not to ask whether culture matters in IR; it assumes that it does. Instead, it asked “how do we study the influence of culture? What methodological approaches are available to us?” Part of the difficulty in addressing these questions lies in the epistemological and methodological divide that animates many IR debates. While discussions inevitably touched on these issues, the emphasis was on productive discussions of method. Rather than reprising debates over the relative merits of quantitative versus qualitative methods, or rationalist versus social construction approaches, the workshop sought to draw on all of these traditions, in an effort to assemble a problem-driven methodological toolkit that could make confident assertions and arguments about an increasingly important area of inquiry.
Topic:
International Relations

1198. North Korea: How Much Reform and Whose Characteristics?

Author:
Heather Smith
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
This paper is the first of a three part project on economic reform on the Korean Peninsula. In this first paper, I focus on the question which has been subject to considerable recent debate, namely whether collapse of North Korea is imminent. In accessing this question the paper discusses the three structural bottlenecks now thought to be severely constraining the North Korean economy following a series of external shocks in the late 1980s, food shortages, energy constraints and a limited capacity to earn foreign exchange. Much speculation has focused on the deterioration in the food economy and that a prolongation of current food shortages will see North Korea collapse. One contribution of this paper lies in its attempt to analyze North Korean agricultural production and food consumption patterns using data made available by North Korea to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization. Several anomalies are found between this data and recent World Food Program assessments of food conditions and estimates of nutritional requirements which suggest caution in drawing a too deterministic link between current food shortages and collapse. The paper then discusses the role of international and regional players in prolonging North Korea's economic survival. In particular, the terms under which North Korea signed onto the 1994 Agreed Framework, a return to favorable trading terms with China, and North Korea's attempts aimed at expanding economic ties with the international community, could sustain North Korea at subsistence levels for the next 5 years at least. If collapse is not imminent in the short to medium term, then the policy implications that emerge from such a scenario are clear: that the international community will need to continue to pursue a policy approach of managing tension reduction and the integration of North Korea into the international community. Whether the North Korea regime will embrace fundamental reforms needed to ensure longer term survival remains difficult to judge. In the final section of the paper, several reasons are advanced as to why the window of opportunity for North Korea to embrace reform is now greater than at any time in the past.
Topic:
International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:
Israel and East Asia

1199. Blunder in the Balkans: The Clinton Administration's Bungled War against Serbia

Author:
Christopher Layne
Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The Clinton administration has made one miscalculation after another in dealing with the Kosovo crisis. U.S. officials and their NATO colleagues never understood the historical and emotional importance of Kosovo to the Serbia n people, believing instead that Belgrade's harsh repression of the ethnic Albanian secessionist movement in Kosovo merely reflected the will of President Slobodan Milosevic of Yugoslavia. The administration's foreign policy team mistakenly concluded that, under a threat of air strikes, the Yugoslav government would sign a dictate d peace accord (the Rambouillet agreement) to be implemented by a NATO peacekeeping force in Kosovo. Even if Milosevic initially refused to sign the Rambouillet agreement, administration leaders believed that Belgrade would relent after a brief “demonstration” bombing campaign. Those calculations proved to be disastrously wrong.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Balkans, and Albania

1200. The International System of the 21st Century

Author:
Bertel Heurlin
Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In 1969, 30 years ago, a large portion of the earth's population had to revise their conception of the world. Pictures of Earth as seen from the moon taken by American astronauts made a considerable impression. The pictures portrayed a very beautiful planet - shining, inviting, sunny, fertile, full of life and beauty. This was Spaceship Earth, a spaceship apparently characterised more by nature than by culture. The spaceship Earth appears hospitable and yet vulnerable. It faces space, communicating. It is a spaceship the population of which lives on the outside in stead of within.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and International Cooperation