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1002. Democratic Control of Security and Intelligence Services: A Legal Framework
- Author:
- Ian Leigh
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- This paper is a contribution to a continuing project of the Geneva Centre for Democratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF): to provide a map or 'matrix' of legal norms to govern security sector reform. Previous contributions have addressed civil-military relations and work remains to be done on policing. The focus here is on the implications of this approach for the norms governing security and intelligence agencies.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Geneva
1003. Control and Oversight of Security Intelligence in Romania
- Author:
- Larry Watts
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- According to March 2002 poll, 60% of the Romanian population believe that their intelligence services – in particular the SRI (Serviciul roman de informatii – domestic security intelligence) and the SIE (Serviciul de informatii externe – foreign intelligence) – have been “transformed into democratic institutions on the western model.” 52% believe that the services are serving national interests in a politically-neutral fashion as opposed to partisan aims of the sitting government (32%), and 55% had a generally “good opinion” concerning their performance. 73% of the population believes that the services do not have too much power, and half of those believe they have too little power, while 74% believe that intelligence specialists remaining from before 1989 – about 15% of the SRI and 18% of the SIE – should be retained. Periodic polling by other agencies regularly rank the SRI just behind the church and the army, and ahead of the government and police, in terms of public trust.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Romania
1004. Democratic and Parliamentary Accountability of Intelligence Services after September 11th.
- Author:
- Peter Gill
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- In the past thirty years throughout Europe, the Americas and more sporadically elsewhere the issue of how to institute some democratic control over security intelligence agencies has steadily permeated the political agenda. There have been two main reasons for this change. In what might be described as the 'old' democracies (North America, Western Europe, Australia and New Zealand) the main impetus for change was scandal involving abuses of power and rights by the agencies. Typically, these gave rise to legislative or judicial enquiries that resulted in new legal and oversight structures for the agencies, some of these achieved by statutes, others by executive orders. The best known examples of these are the U.S. congressional enquiries during 1975-76 (chaired by Senator Church and Representative Pike), Justice McDonald's enquiry into the RCMP Security Service in Canada (1977-81) and Justice Hope's into the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Democratization, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Australia, North America, New Zealand, and Western Europe
1005. Unproven: The Controversy over Justifying War in Iraq
- Author:
- David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, and Linda M. Gerber
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Fourth Freedom Forum
- Abstract:
- The failure of U.S. and British forces in Iraq to find evidence of weapons of mass destruction has sparked controversy on both sides of the Atlantic and in the wider international community. Two contending explanations have been offered for why the Bush administration made apparently questionable claims about weapons of mass destruction. The first alleges an intelligence failure. The best analysts in the CIA simply had no foolproof way of discerning what Saddam had. They gave the administration a wide-ranging set of estimates, from benign to worst-case, and, given the way bureaucracies behave, the president's advisors adopted the worse case scenario. The second claim, more odious in form and substance, is that the administration inflated and manipulated uncertain data, possibly even requesting that material sent to it be redone to fit preconceived notions. The Bush administration has gone to great pains to reassert that it stands by its previous pronouncements that prohibited weapons will be located in due time.
- Topic:
- International Relations, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
1006. NATO Nuclear Non-proliferation Policies in a Changing Threat Environment
- Author:
- Alistair Millar and Morten Bremer Maerli
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Fourth Freedom Forum
- Abstract:
- This report summarises the conference “NATO Nuclear Non-Proliferation Policies in a Changing Threat Environment” convened in, Oslo, 12 May 2003. The conference was co-organised by the Fourth Freedom Forum, the Norwegian Atlantic Committee, and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. It was co-sponsored by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Norwegian Ministry of Defence and the Ploughshares Foundation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, NATO, Climate Change, Government, and Nuclear Weapons
1007. Political Disaffection and Democratization: History in New Democracies
- Author:
- Mariano Torcal
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper focuses on the analysis of political disaffection. After discussing and defining this notion, the article shows that disaffection affects more widely, though not exclusively, third-wave democracies. The close link between levels of disaffection and the history of democratization in each country explains its higher incidence among new democracies. For this very reason, political disaffection could also run high among more established democracies. However, regardless of its incidence in each particular country, political disaffection reveals a distinctive nature in new democracies because of the absence of a democratic past in many of these cases. Thus, disaffection constitutes a key element to explain the lower propensity of citizens of new democracies to participate in every dimension of political activity.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, International Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1008. Informal Institutions and Comparative Politics: A Research Agenda
- Author:
- Gretchen Helmke and Steven Levitsky
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- During the 1990s, comparative research on political institutions focused primarily on formal rules. Yet recent studies suggest that an exclusive focus on formal rules is often insufficient, and that informal institutions, ranging from bureaucratic and legislative norms to clientelism and patrimonialism, often have a profound—and systematic—effect on political outcomes. Neglecting these informal institutions thus risks missing many of the “real” incentives and constraints that underlie political behavior. This article seeks to move informal institutions from the margins to the mainstream of comparative politics research. It develops an initial framework for studying informal institutions and, importantly, integrating them into comparative institutional analysis. In the conceptual realm, the article attempts to clarify what is meant by “informal institution” and then develops a typology of four patterns of formal-informal institutional interaction: complementary, accommodating, competing, and substitutive. In the theoretical realm, the article examines two issues that have been largely unexplored in the literature on informal institutions: the question of why and how informal institutions emerge, and the sources of informal institutions stability and change. A final section explores some of the practical challenges inherent in research on informal institutions, including issues of identification, measurement, and comparison.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, International Political Economy, and Politics
1009. Are We Taking China's Future for Granted?
- Author:
- Joseph C. Folio
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- During Fall 2003 the Schlesinger Working Group held two meetings (September 25th and November 3rd) to explore China's estimated political/ economic outlook and to determine what potential challenges might affect its projected future. The purpose of these meetings was not to predict a Chinese stumble or even collapse, but rather to examine events that could trigger a disruption of China's current, impressively successful economic trajectory, and to analyze what form that disruption could take. During the first meeting, participants identified potential disruption scenarios to which China remains vulnerable. The second meeting considered the implications of disruption for both China and the United States, and how these scenarios might affect U.S. policy. Working Group members did not attempt to assign probabilities for the identified potential disruptions or “failures.” Rather, they focused on the hurdles or challenges posed by these disruption scenarios, which the Chinese leadership would need to confront successfully in order to avoid losing control or endangering national cohesion. Participants generally agreed that any major disruption would most likely derive from an external shock that might negatively affect China's economic situation and possibly ignite collateral internal disruption via domestic unrest or leadership division. The group concurred that the Chinese leadership has sufficient strength and cohesion to manage most forms of internal disruption, or at least to adapt quickly and effectively to those that arise.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
1010. Virtual water and the Kyoto consensus'
- Author:
- S. Merrett
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- The Editor of Water International published in the March 2003 issue a paper by Stephen Merrett containing a critique of the “virtual water” concept as well as replies by Tony Allan and Christopher Lant. This discussion paper is a rejoinder to Allan and Lant that also raises the stakes by considering the relation of “virtual water” to an emerging Kyoto consensus on water resources management.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Environment, and International Law
1011. Development of the civil realm in Shanghai environmental politics
- Author:
- Seungho Lee
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- This chapter analyses the development in the civil realm of environmental politics in Shanghai. This study is an effort to identify environmental communities based on Mary Douglas's grid/group theory and an attempt to comprehend the nature of the dynamic interaction of the private and the public spheres, particularly within the public sphere between the state (the Shanghai government) and ethical social entities (environmental NGOs and other social groups). The contribution of the study lies in its revelation of how the civil realm in Shanghai has developed with a self - capacity to redress environmentally unfriendly policies over the last decade. Fieldwork carried out in 2002 identified a number of environmental Non Governmental Organisations, NGOs, and other social groups in Shanghai. It proved to be possible to highlight the recent emergence of environmental NGOs, including university students based organisations. The study evaluates how these groups have evolved and have survived in the transitional period in alliance with Government Organised NGOs, GONGOs, local communities (shequ), the media, international NGOs and the government. Although these environmental groups now commit themselves to various environmental issues, Shanghai does not have any particular NGO mainly engaged in freshwater issues. It is concluded that a collaboration of GONGOs, NGOs, and various environmental groups alongside international NGOs has led to the formation of a civil force that impacts Shanghai's environmental policy - making.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Environment
- Political Geography:
- China and Shanghai
1012. The Cost of Resolving Small Business Conflicts: The Case of Peru
- Author:
- Keith Henderson and Alvaro Herrero
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- The goal of this study is to analyze the impact of judicial inefficiency on small businesses in Peru. It is based on the hypothesis that chronic problems in the region's judicial systems have negative consequences on the development of micro, small and medium - sized businesses. Our analysis focuses, first, on the relationship between Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and the legal system. Secondly, it investigates the decisions made by SMEs to mitigate the effects of bad court performance. Lastly, it identifies several ways in which judicial inefficiency is transferred to the business sector. The analysis also attempts to quantify the economic impact of judicial inefficiency.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Development
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, South America, and Peru
1013. You, The People: The United Nations, Transitional Administration, and State-Building
- Author:
- Simon Chesterman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Transitional administrations represent the most complex operations attempted by the United Nations. The missions in Kosovo (1999—) and East Timor (1999–2002) are commonly seen as unique in the history of the United Nations. But they may also be seen as the latest in a series of operations that have involved the United Nations in 'state-building' activities, in which it has attempted to develop the institutions of government by assuming some or all of those sovereign powers on a temporary basis. Viewed in light of earlier UN operations, such as those in Namibia (1989–1990), Cambodia (1992–1993), and Eastern Slavonia (1996–1998), the idea that these exceptional circumstances may not recur is somewhat disingenuous. The need for policy research in this area was brought into sharp focus by the weighty but vague responsibilities assigned to the United Nations in Afghanistan (2002—) and its contested role in Iraq (2003—).
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Government, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Kosovo, Cambodia, Namibia, and Eastern Slavonia
1014. Breaks in the Variability and Co-Movement of G-7 Economic Growth
- Author:
- Jon Faust and Brian M. Doyle
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates breaks in the variability and co-movement of output, consumption, and investment in the G-7 economies. In contrast with most other papers on co-movement, we test for changes in co-movement allowing for breaks in mean and variance. Despite claims that rising integration among these economies has increased output correlations among them, we find no clear evidence of an increase in correlation of growth rates of output, consumption, or investment. This finding is true even for the United States and Canada, which have seen a tremendous increase in bilateral trade shares, and for the members of the euro area in the G-7.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Canada, and North America
1015. Interest Rate Rules and Multiple Equilibria in the Small Open Economy
- Author:
- Luis-Felipe Zanna
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- In a small open economy model with traded and non-traded goods this paper characterizes conditions under which interest rate rules induce aggregate instability by generating multiple equilibria. These conditions depend not only on how aggressively the rule responds to inflation, but also on the measure of inflation to which the government responds, on the degree of openness of the economy and on the degree of exchange rate pass-through. As an important policy implication, this paper finds that to avoid aggregate instability in the economy the government should implement an aggressive rule with respect to the inflation rate of the sector that has sticky prices. That is the non-traded goods inflation rate. As a by-product of this analysis, it is shown that "fear-of-floating" governments that follow a rule that responds to both the CPI-inflation rate and the nominal depreciation rate or governments that implement "super-inertial" interest rate smoothing rules may actually induce multiple equilibria in their economies. This paper also shows that for forward-looking rules, the determinacy of equilibrium conditions depends not only on the degree of openness of the economy but also on the weight that the government puts on expected future CPI-inflation rates. In fact rules that are "excessively" forward-looking always lead to multiple equilibria.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
1016. Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve in Canada
- Author:
- Joseph W. Gruber
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This study examines the impact of productivity growth on the relationship between inflation and unemployment in Canada. Recently it has been suggested that higher productivity growth is responsible for a shift in the U.S. Phillips curve that occurred in the late 1990s. This paper examines whether the Phillips curve in Canada shifted in a manner similar to that of the United States, and the degree to which higher productivity growth explains this shift.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- Canada and North America
1017. The High-Frequency Response of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements
- Author:
- John H. Rogers, Jonathan H. Wright, Jon Faust, and Shing-Yi B. Wang
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Many recent papers have studied movements in stock, bond, and currency prices over short windows of time around macro announcements. This paper adds to the announcement effects literature in two ways. First, we study the joint announcement effects across a broad range of assets--exchange rates and U.S. and foreign term structures. In order to evaluate whether the joint effects can be reconciled with conventional theory, we interpret the joint movements in light of uncovered interest rate parity or changes in risk premia. For several real macro announcements, we find that a stronger than expected release appreciates the dollar today, but that it must either (i) lower the relative risk premium for holding foreign currency rather than dollars, or (ii) imply considerable future expected dollar depreciation. The latter implies an overshooting behavior akin to that described by Dornbusch (1976). Second, we use a longer span of high frequency data than has been common in announcement work. A longer span of high frequency data contributes to the precision of our estimates and allows us to explore the possibility that the effects of macro surprises on asset prices have varied over time. We find evidence, for example, that PPI releases had a larger effect on U.S. interest rates before about 1992 than subsequently.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
1018. Market Power and Inflation
- Author:
- David Bowman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the extent to which a decline in market power could have contributed to the general decline in inflation rates experienced in developed countries during the 1990s.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
1019. Productive Capacity, Product Varieties, and the Elasticities Approach to the Trade Balance
- Author:
- Joseph E. Gagnon
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Most macroeconomic models imply that faster output growth tends to lower a country's trade balance by raising its imports with little change to its exports. Krugman (1989) proposed a model in which countries grow by producing new varieties of goods. In his model, faster-growing countries are able to export these new goods and maintain balanced trade without suffering any deterioration in their terms of trade. This paper analyzes the growth of U.S. imports from different source countries and finds strong support for Krugman's model.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
1020. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on The Role and Status of Red Teaming Activities
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The Task Force was charged to examine the use of red teams in the Department of Defense and recommend ways that such teams could be of greater value to the department. Our Terms of Reference and task force membership are provided in Appendices 1 and 2.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
1021. Forecasting U.S. Inflation by Bayesian Model Averaging
- Author:
- Jonathan H. Wright
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Recent empirical work has considered the prediction of inflation by combining the information in a large number of time series. One such method that has been found to give consistently good results consists of simple equal weighted averaging of the forecasts over a large number of different models, each of which is a linear regression model that relates inflation to a single predictor and a lagged dependent variable. In this paper, I consider using Bayesian Model Averaging for pseudo out-of-sample prediction of US inflation, and find that it gives more accurate forecasts than simple equal weighted averaging. This superior performance is consistent across subsamples and inflation measures. Meanwhile, both methods substantially outperform a naive time series benchmark of predicting inflation by an autoregression.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
1022. Bayesian Model Averaging and Exchange Rate Forecasts
- Author:
- Jonathan H. Wright
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Exchange rate forecasting is hard and the seminal result of Meese and Rogoff (1983) that the exchange rate is well approximated by a driftless random walk, at least for prediction purposes, has never really been overturned despite much effort at constructing other forecasting models. However, in several other macro and financial forecasting applications, researchers in recent years have considered methods for forecasting that combine the information in a large number of time series. One method that has been found to be remarkably useful for out-of-sample prediction is simple averaging of the forecasts of different models. This often seems to work better than the forecasts from any one model. Bayesian Model Averaging is a closely related method that has also been found to be useful for out-of-sample prediction. This starts out with many possible models and prior beliefs about the probability that each model is the true one. It then involves computing the posterior probability that each model is the true one, and averages the forecasts from the different models, weighting them by these posterior probabilities. This is effectively a shrinkage methodology, but with shrinkage over models not just over parameters. I apply this Bayesian Model Averaging approach to pseudo-out-of-sample exchange rate forecasting over the last ten years. I find that it compares quite favorably to a driftless random walk forecast. Depending on the currency-horizon pair, the Bayesian Model Averaging forecasts sometimes do quite a bit better than the random walk benchmark (in terms of mean square prediction error), while they never do much worse. The forecasts generated by this model averaging methodology are however very close to (but not identical to) those from the random walk forecast.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
1023. Revisiting the Border: An Assessment of the Law of One Price Using Very Disaggregated Consumer Price Data
- Author:
- John H. Rogers, Shing-Yi B. Wang, and Charles M. Engels
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- We reexamine the evidence for border effects in deviations from the law of one price, using data for consumer prices from Canadian and U.S. cities. The study parallels Engel and Rogers (1996), except that this study uses actual price data rather than price index data. We find evidence of border effects both in the levels of prices and the percentage change in prices. Even accounting for distance between cities and relative population sizes, we find that the absolute difference between prices in the U.S. and Canada in our data (annual from 1990 to 2002) is greater than seven percent. This difference exists among tradables and nontradables, though for some categories of tradables (clothing and durables) the difference is smaller. The findings are similar for annual changes, though the magnitude is smaller: the border accounts for a difference in 1.5 percent in annual (log) price changes. Relative population sizes and distance are helpful in explaining price level differences (between Canadian and U.S. cities) for traded goods, but are less helpful in explaining price level differences for nontraded goods or for accounting for differences in price changes for either traded or nontraded goods.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Canada and North America
1024. Contagion: An Empirical Test
- Author:
- Jon Wongswan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Using the conditional Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), this paper tests for the existence and pattern of contagion and capital market integration in global equity markets. Contagion is defined as significant excess conditional correlation among different countries' asset returns above what could be explained by economic fundamentals (systematic risks). Capital market integration is defined as the situation in which only systematic risks are priced. The paper uses a panel of sixteen countries, divided into three blocs: Asia, Latin America, and Germany-U.K.-U.S., for the period from 1990 through 1999. The results show evidence of contagion and capital market integration. In addition, contagion is found to be a regional phenomenon.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, United Kingdom, Asia, Germany, and Latin America
1025. The USA and UNESCO: Building Knowledge, Building Cultures
- Publication Date:
- 08-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, UNESCO, was founded after World War II to contribute to peace and security. Collaboration among nations through education, science and culture remains a cornerstone of a peaceful world order. The founders of UNESCO believed that the rule of law, respect for human rights, and freedom of expression would be strengthened through international cooperation. The need for the world community to renew its efforts to advance these principles has never been more urgent. American leadership in the service of peace and security can help mobilize multilateral institutions, including UNESCO, to stand up for common values that promote tolerance and thwart terrorism. The sanctity of human life must be a common commitment.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States
1026. News or Noise? An Analysis of Brazilian GDP Announcements
- Author:
- Rebeca de la Rocque Palis, Roberto Luis Olinto Ramos, and Patrice Robitaille
- Publication Date:
- 08-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Revisions to GDP announcements in many countries are often large, and Faust, Rogers, and Wright (2003) have found that G-7 GDP revisions are predictable to varying degrees. In this paper, we extend FRW to study revisions to Brazilian GDP announcements. We document that revisions to Brazilian GDP are large relative to those of G-7 countries. Brazilian GDP revisions are also predictable, which is consistent with the view that GDP revisions correct errors in preliminary GDP rather than reflect news. However, GDP revisions are far from being entirely predictable. Although GDP revisions are largest only one year following the initial GDP release, those revisions are nearly unpredictable.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
1027. The Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Multinationals' Returns
- Author:
- Jane Ihrig and David Prior
- Publication Date:
- 08-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- <p>This paper examines if the type of exchange rate used or size of the movement in the exchange rate matters in estimating exchange-rate exposure of U.S. nonfinancial multinationals. We find that switching from a broad trade-weighted exchange rate to a 2-digit SIC industry exchange rate increases the number of significantly exposed firms in a simple Jorion (1990) regression by 60 percent. Then separating crisis from non-crisis months we find additional evidence of exposure. Although the value of exposure does not change with the size of the exchange rate movement, we find some firms have significant exposure only in crisis periods while others have significant exposure only during normal fluctuations in exchange rates. All told, we find about 1 in 4 firms' returns is significantly affected by movement in the exchange rate between 1995 and 1999. </p><blockquote><p> </p> </blockquote><p>Â </p><p>Â </p>
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
1028. SARS: Down But Still a Threat
- Publication Date:
- 08-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) was requested by Secretary of Health and Human Services Tommy Thompson and Ambassador Jack Chow, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for International Health Affairs. It highlights the evolution of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and the potential implications of the disease for the United States under several scenarios; this paper does not attempt to provide a scientific assessment of the epidemiology of SARS. Even though SARS has infected and killed far fewer people than other common infectious diseases such as influenza, malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS, it has had a disproportionately large economic and political impact because it spread in areas with broad international commercial links and received intense media attention as a mysterious new illness that seemed able to go anywhere and hit anyone.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Human Welfare, Poverty, and Third World
- Political Geography:
- United States
1029. Strategic Reactions to American Preeminence: Great Power Politics in the Age of Unipolarity
- Author:
- John G. Ikenberry
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- American global power – military, economic, technological, cultural, and political – is one of the great realities of our age. Never before has one country been so powerful and unrivaled. The United States began the 1990s as the world's only superpower and its advantages continued to grow through the decade. After the Cold War, the United States reduced its military spending at a slower rate than other countries and its economy grew at a faster pace. The globalization of the world economy has reinforced American economic and political dominance. No ideological challengers are in site. More recently, in response to terrorist attacks, the United States has embarked on a massive military buildup. In the recent National Security Strategy, the Bush administration has articulated an ambitious and provocative global military role for the United States in confronting new-age threats. Overall, American power advantages are multidimensional, unprecedented, and unlikely to disappear any time soon. The world has taken notice of these developments. Indeed, the post-Cold War rise of American power -- what might be called the rise of American "unipolarity" -- has unsettled world politics. Governments everywhere are worried about the uncertainties and insecurities that appear to flow from such extreme and unprecedented disparities of power. The shifting global security environment – triggered by the terrorist attacks of September 11th –also has conspired to upset old relationships and expectations. The American invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq have put American power on display and raised far-reaching questions about the use of force, alliances, weapons of mass destruction, sovereignty and interventionism. The world is in the midst of a great geopolitical adjustment process. Governments are trying to figure out how an American-centered unipolar order will operate. How will the United States use its power? Will a unipolar world be built around rules and institutions or the unilateral exercise of American power? This global worry about how a unipolar world will operate – in which the most basic questions about the character of world politics are at stake, namely, who benefits and who commands – is the not-so-hidden subtext of all the recent controversies in America's relations with the rest of the world. The question posed in this report is: how are the major countries around the world responding to American global preeminence? Overall, strategies and policies are mostly still in flux around the world. Responses up to now have been mostly ad hoc. Governments are learning, adapting, negotiating, and reacting – thus it is not possible to identify fixed "strategies of response." This report seeks to help us understand these evolving responses in two ways: first, it will provide conceptual tools to identify and track strategic responses by major states to American preeminence, and second, it will offer some preliminary characterizations of the patterns of response, particularly by Western Europe, Russia, and China. This report might be seen as a sort of "field guide" to global reactions rather than a definitive theoretical and empirical statement on the subject. I begin by offering a summary of the findings. After this, I look at the rise of American unipolar power and the variety of ways that American power is "experienced" around the world. In the next section, I survey the deeper sources and multifaceted character of American unipolar power. Next I explore the limits of the basic strategies of response to concentrated power – balancing, bandwagoning and binding. In the next section, I explore some of the emerging strategies that are appearing among the major countries. Finally, in the conclusion I return to the issue of unipolar power and rule-based order.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
1030. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Discriminate Use of Force
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- In the terms of reference, the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics directed the task force “to conduct a comprehensive study of the ends and means of precision compellence, or the nuanced use of force, in concert with coalition partners, to achieve political, economic and moral change in countries affecting US interests.” Real-world events have since underscored the need for such a study; indeed, the U.S. military applied key elements of a measured, nuanced approach in both the Afghanistan and Iraq campaigns. We are pleased to note this evolution in operations and a parallel evolution in the thinking of the combatant commands and Services. Because of this evolution, it is no longer as necessary as it once was to sell the fundamental objectives of what we term here the discriminate use of force (DUF).
- Topic:
- International Relations, Defense Policy, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
1031. Afghanistan: Seeds of Hope
- Author:
- David Johnson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- In 2000, an overwhelming 97 percent of Afghan girls did not attend school, and today only about 20 percent are literate. Tens of thousands of Afghan girls are now attending school for the first time in years.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Middle East
1032. An Empirical Analysis of Inflation in OECD Countries
- Author:
- Jaime Marquez and Jane Ihrig
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- One of the most remarkable macroeconomic developments of the past decade has been the widespread decline in inflation despite declines in unemployment rates. For the United States, these seemingly contradictory developments have been reconciled in terms of three factors: (1) an acceleration in productivity, (2) structural changes in labor markets that lowered the natural unemployment rate (NAIRU), and (3) improved credibility of monetary policy. Here we ask whether comparable factors were at work in foreign industrial countries. To address this question, we empirically characterize the relationship between inflation, the unemployment rate, and structural factors using an extended Phillips curve model with quarterly data through 1994. By undertaking counterfactual simulations from 1995 to 2001, we quantify the separate contributions of unemployment-rate movements, labor-market reforms (that affected the NAIRU), and productivity developments on inflation. In line with previous work on the United States, we find that productivity advancements were the main structural factor reducing inflation in the United States. For foreign countries, persistent labor-market slack was the main factor exerting downward pressure on inflation. This persistence stemmed, in part, from structural reforms that lowered the NAIRU while the unemployment rate was declining.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
1033. Putting 'M' Back in Monetary Policy
- Author:
- Eric M. Leeper and Jennifer E. Roush
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Money demand and the stock of money have all but disappeared from monetary policy analyses. Remarkably, it is more common for empirical work on monetary policy to include commodity prices than to include money. This paper establishes and explores the empirical fact that whether money enters a model and how it enters matters for inferences about policy impacts. The way money is modeled significantly changes the size of output and inflation effects and the degree of inertia that inflation exhibits following a policy shock. We offer a simple and conventional economic interpretation of these empirical facts.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
1034. Are Financially Dollarized Countries More Prone to Costly Crises?
- Author:
- Carlos Ó. Arteta
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- In view of the role of liability dollarization in recent financial crises, whether or not the widespread presence of foreign-currency-denominated deposits and credits in developing-country banking systems leads to greater financial fragility is an open and pressing question. Using a comprehensive dataset on deposit and credit dollarization for a large number of developing and transition economies, I find little evidence that high dollarization heightens the probability of banking crises or currency crashes. Furthermore, while empirical results suggest that banking crises and currency crashes are contractionary, there is no robust evidence that they are more costly in highly dollarized countries than in countries where dollarization is low. This extensive empirical search highlights that macroeconomic and exchange rate policies are far more important than bank dollarization in determining crisis risks and costs.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
1035. New Keynesian, Open-Economy Models and Their Implications for Monetary Policy
- Author:
- Brian M. Doyle and David Bowman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The considerable amount of research in recent years on New Keynesian, open-economy models -- models with nominal price rigidities and intertemporally maximizing agents -- has yielded fresh insights for what Alan Blinder has called the “dark art” of making monetary policy. The literature has made its greatest contributions in understanding the transmission of shocks across countries, exchange rate pass-through and the effects of different pricing rules, and how these impact optimal monetary policy rules and international policy coordination. While the literature has by no means solved the great mysteries of open-economy macroeconomics, it has laid out a framework where we can ask normative questions of monetary policy, such as how much a central bank should react to movements in the exchange rate. However, monetary policy remains an empirical endeavour, and would be helped by further work which empirically estimates or calibrates these new models.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
1036. Foreign Portfolio Investment, Foreign Bank Lending, and Economic Growth
- Author:
- J. Benson Durham
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- In contrast to the empirical literature's focus on foreign direct investment (FDI), this study examines the effects of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) and “other” foreign investment (OFI) on economic growth using data on 88 countries from 1977 through 2000. Most measures suggest that FPI has no effect, and some results indicate that OFI has a negative impact on growth that is somewhat mitigated by initial financial and/or legal development. However, these results are questionable due to possible simultaneity bias. The empirical analyses also examine whether non-FDI foreign investment affects growth indirectly. FPI does not correlate positively with macroeconomic volatility, but the results indicate that the negative indirect effect of OFI through macroeconomic volatility comprises a substantial portion of the gross negative effect of OFI on growth.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
1037. The Present-Value Model of the Current Account Has Been Rejected: Round Up the Usual Suspects
- Author:
- John H. Rogers and James M. Nason
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Tests of the present-value model of the current account are frequently rejected by the data. Standard explanations rely on the “usual suspects” of non-separable preferences, shocks to fiscal policy and the world real interest rate, and imperfect international capital mobility. We con firm these rejections on post-war Canadian data, then investigate their source by calibrating and simulating alternative versions of a small open economy, real business cycle model. Monte Carlo experiments reveal that, although each of the suspects matters in some way, a “canonical” RBC model moves closest to the data when it features exogenous world real interest rate shocks.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
1038. Diversification, Original Sin, and International Bond Portfolios
- Author:
- Francis E. Warnock and John D. Burger
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- While there is a severe home bias in U.S. investors' foreign bond portfolios, we find that portfolio weights are greater for countries with more open capital accounts and whose bond returns are less correlated with U.S. returns. Positions in local-currency-denominated bonds are particularly sensitive to past and prospective returns volatility. An analysis of changes in portfolio weights over time indicates that U.S. investors have recently moved out of smaller markets and those with low and declining credit ratings. Our data also allow for an analysis of the size and currency composition of international bond markets. We find that countries with stronger institutions and better inflation performance have larger local currency bond markets. An implication for developing countries is that creditor friendly policies, such as vigilance on the inflation front and the development of strong institutions, can enable local bond market development and may in turn attract global investors.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
1039. Uncovered Interest Parity: It Works, But Not For Long
- Author:
- Jonathan H. Wright and Alain P. Chaboud
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The failure of uncovered interest parity can be ascribed to the existence of a risk premium. The size of this risk premium may shrink to zero over sufficiently small intervals of time. In contrast, because no interest is paid on intradaily positions and interest is instead paid discretely at the point when a position is rolled over from one day to the next, the size of the interest differential remains fixed over any interval that covers the time of the discrete interest payment. This is true no matter how short that interval is. Using a large dataset of high frequency exchange rate data, we run uncovered interest parity regression over different time intervals. We replicate the rejection of the uncovered interest parity hypothesis with daily data, but find results that are consistently much more supportive of the uncovered interest parity hypothesis over short windows of intradaily data that span the time of the discrete interest payment.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
1040. Long-Run Supply Effects and the Elasticities Approach to Trade
- Author:
- Joseph E. Gagnon
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Krugman (1989) argued that differences across countries in estimated income elasticities of import demand are due to omission of an exporter supply effect. He showed that such an effect can be derived in a theoretical model with economies of scale in production and a taste for variety in consumption. In his model, countries grow by producing new varieties of goods, and they are able to export these goods without suffering any deterioration in their terms of trade. This paper analyzes U.S. import demand from different source countries and finds strong evidence of a supply effect of roughly half the magnitude (0.75) of the income elasticity (1.5). Price elasticities for the most part are estimated close to -1, which is typical for the literature. Exclusion of the supply effect leads to overestimation of the income elasticity. Results based on U.S. exports to different destinations are less robust, but largely corroborate these findings.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
1041. Firm-Level Access To International Capital Markets: Evidence From Chilean Equities
- Author:
- Francis E. Warnock and Sara B. Holland
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- High growth, liquid Chilean firms have greater relative weights in U.S. equity portfolios, but the most important determinant of a firm's portfolio weight is whether it is listed on a U.S. exchange. Cross-listing does not, however, appear to have permanent benefits: Weights in U.S. portfolios of firms that cross-listed in the mid-1990s increased at the expense of firms that cross-listed earlier. Put another way, firms appear to be able to access international capital at the time of the cross-listing, but this access may well be short-lived.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- South America
1042. The ROK—U.S. Alliance: Where Is It Headed?
- Author:
- Kim Dong Shin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The National Security Strategy of the United States of America (September 2002) provides an important framework from which to examine the current crisis on the Korean Peninsula and other challenges in Northeast Asia. With its focus on terrorism and weapons of mass destruction (WMD), this strategy is concerned with North Korea as much as, if not more than, any other state. In particular, North Korea poses a unique set of challenges in regard to WMD. North Korea stands in sharp contrast to the Republic of Korea (ROK) on issues such as human rights, democracy, and market economies. The National Security Strategy suggests that the United States should revitalize its alliance with South Korea, while encouraging North Korea to transform its political and economic system. Yet South Korea and the United States are currently having some difficulties in developing a consensus on how to approach Pyongyang, and appear to have no clear plan to operationalize the strategy to deal with North Korea.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Asia, and North Korea
1043. Aleksandr Dugin's Foundations of Geopolitics
- Author:
- John B. Dunlop
- Publication Date:
- 08-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- One perceptive observer of the Russian political scene, Francoise Thom, noted as far back as 1994 that fascism, and especially its “Eurasianist” variant, was already at that time displacing Russian nationalism among statist Russian elites as a post-communist “Russian Idea,” especially in the foreign policy sphere. “The weakness of Russian nationalists,” she emphasized, “stems from their inability to clearly situate Russian frontiers. Euras[ianism] brings an ideological foundation for post-Soviet imperialism.”
- Topic:
- International Relations, Nationalism, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Eurasia
1044. The Future of Russia: The Nuclear Factor
- Author:
- Oleg Bukharin
- Publication Date:
- 08-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- Two factors were of critical significance in shaping the international peace and security agenda after the Cold War: the emergence of nuclear security and proliferation dangers in the wake of the Soviet collapse, and the unprecedented level of cooperation between Russia and other countries to address these problems. As a result of cooperative international and Russia's domestic efforts, important progress has been made in recent years in reducing nuclear arsenals, protecting Russia's nuclear materials, and preventing proliferation of nuclear weapons expertise from Russia. Much work, however, remains to be done.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Defense Policy, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1045. A Review of European Perceptions of Cuba
- Author:
- Joaquín Roy
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- The commemoration of the 100th anniversary of the birth of the Cuban Republic on May 20, 2002, provided an opportunity to review not only the survival of the Cuban regime, but also the whole history of the Cuban nation. 2 This event coincided with the historic visit of former President Jimmy Carter to Havana 3 and the reiteration of the unwillingness of the United States to terminate its embargo of Cuba, as expressed by President George W. Bush in an unprecedented speech in Washington and on a trip to Miami. 4 At the same time, friction has increased between Cuba and some influential Latin American countries, as in the special case of Mexico. The tension generated in the aftermath of the vote taken by the United Nations Commission for Human Rights in Geneva in April 2002, which criticized Cuba's human rights practices, revealed a definite crack in the comfortable linkage previously enjoyed by Castro with most countries of the hemisphere (with the notable exception of the United States). On October 23, 2002, when the European Parliament (EP) approved the award of the Sakharov Prize to Cuban dissident Oswaldo Payá for his record in the defense of human rights and especially for his leadership in the “Varela Project,” the overall panorama of the relations of the European Union (EU) with Cuba acquired a new look, signifying the confirmation of a long pattern of the EU's perceptions of and policy toward Cuba. 5 Cuba's decision to allow Payá to travel to Strasbourg to receive the award was taken simultaneously with the EU's announcement of the opening of a delegation in Cuba, while Castro surprisingly declared that Cuba would reapply to become a member of the Africa, Caribbean, Pacific (ACP) Cotonou Convention. It is time, therefore, for a historical review and a consideration of the most salient aspects of European-Cuban relations and some of the pending issues.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Cuba, and Caribbean
1046. Europe: Neither Plan Colombia, nor Peace Process - From Good Intentions to High Frustration
- Author:
- Joaquin Roy
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- With the public announcement of a reshaped Plan Colombia in mid-2000, European attitudes toward involvement in attempting to solve the crisis of Colombia's endemic violence has oscillated from alarm to hope and, finally, to frustration. The overall scene has been dominated by a sense of powerlessness, mixed with realism and internal contradictions between member states and institutions of the European Union (EU).
- Topic:
- International Relations and Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Colombia
1047. How the Axis of Evil Metaphor Changes Iranian Images of the USA
- Author:
- Daniel Heradstveit and G. Matthew Bonham
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The respondents feared an American attack, and regarded their membership in «the Axis of Evil» as a stab in the back after Iranian help in Afghanistan. This demonisation was seen overwhelmingly in terms of American geopolitical designs, ignorance and downright irrationality – an expansionist superpower that is dangerously out of control. The WTC attack initially caused a strengthening of Iranian national unity and a more coherent foreign policy, but most of the respondents regard «the Axis of Evil» as killing the nascent dialogue with the USA stone dead and coming as a godsend to the conservatives and the ultras.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, America, Iran, and Middle East
1048. The Requirements of European International Society: Modernity and Nationalism in the Ottoman Empire
- Author:
- Ayla GÖL
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Australian National University Department of International Relations
- Abstract:
- This paper critically examines the 'admittance' of the Ottoman Empire as the first non-European and non-Christian state into European international society, challenges the idea that international society had a universal character, and explores how the Empire encountered and adapted to the requirements of this society. There are two premises to explore. First, the Empire was never accepted as an equal member of the European society of states. Second, the Ottoman Empire's desire to enter European international society initiated its modernisation, which gradually led to the emergence of Turkish nationalism in the twentieth century. The first part of this paper deals with the 'otherness' of the Ottoman Empire within European international society. The second part explains the paradoxical character of Ottoman–European relations, which initiated the Empire's modernisation. The last part explores the emergence of Turkish nationalism in relation to the policies of Ottoman modernisation that brought the transition from an Islamic empire into a modern secular nation-state. It concludes by questioning whether or not the modern Turkish state is considered a European member of international society.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Nationalism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
1049. The Neo-Roman Republican Legacy and International Political Theory
- Author:
- Steven Slaughter
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Australian National University Department of International Relations
- Abstract:
- This paper claims that established accounts of international political theory overlook the neo-roman strand of republican political theory. It seeks to address this case of neglect and extend republican observations into international political theory in three steps. The first step examines the nature of international political theory. The second step examines the neo-roman strand of republicanism's conception of liberty and the institutions whereby this type of liberty is secured. Lastly, the main elements of a republican approach to international political theory are developed in a way that highlights republicanism's institutional approach to world politics and its commitment to the state.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Government, and Politics
1050. Reimagining International Society Through the Emergence of Japanese Imperialism
- Author:
- Shogo Suzuki
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Australian National University Department of International Relations
- Abstract:
- In the not too distant past Timothy Dunne asserted that '[International] society is what states have made of it'. Since then much has been written about how the English School offers a valuable interpretivist approach, how it has spread across the world, how it can be improved, and what it has to say about non-European societies and 'world society'. This paper aims to contribute to all three facets of the debate through a case study of how the Japanese elite understood international society during the bakumatsu (late-Tokugawa)/early-Meiji periods (1853-95). In doing so, it examines the emergence of Japanese imperialism from the perspective of international society as perceived by English School scholars.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Europe, and Asia
1051. Does China Matter? The Global Economic Issues
- Author:
- Stuart Harris
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Australian National University Department of International Relations
- Abstract:
- In 1999, Gerry Segal, then Director of Research at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, wrote an article in Foreign Affairs entitled 'Does China matter?'. His article ranged across economic, political and strategic issues but his overall conclusion was that China's importance had been greatly exaggerated. As far as economic questions were concerned, Segal saw China as a small market 'that matters little to the world, especially outside Asia'.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
1052. Promoting the Rule of Law Abroad: The Problem of Knowledge
- Author:
- Thomas Carothers
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Although the current rule-of-law promotion field is still expanding as it approaches the end of its second decade, it still faces a lack of knowledge at many levels of conception, operation, and evaluation. There is a surprising amount of uncertainty, for example, about the twin rationales of rule-of-law promotion—that promoting the rule of law will contribute to economic development and democratization. There is also uncertainty about what the essence of the rule of law actually is—whether it primarily resides in certain institutional configurations or in more diffuse normative structures. Rule-of-law promoters are also short of knowledge about how the rule of law develops in societies and how such development can be stimulated beyond simplistic efforts to copy institutional forms. And the question of what kinds of larger societal effects will result from specific changes in rule-of-law institutions is also still open. Although aid institutions engaged in rule-of-law assistance do attempt some—lessons learned—exercises, many of the lessons produced are superficial and even those are often not really learned. Several substantial obstacles to greater knowledge accumulation in this field persist, including the complexity of the task of promoting the rule of law, the particularity of legal systems, the unwillingness of aid organizations to invest sufficient resources in evaluations, and the tendency of both academics and lawyers not to pursue systematic empirical research on rule-of-law aid programs. Whether rule-of-law aid is on the path to becoming a well-grounded field of international assistance remains uncertain.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
1053. Mending the U.S.-European Rift over the Middle East
- Author:
- Leon T. Hadar
- Publication Date:
- 08-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The war in Iraq has created tensions between the United States and some of its leading allies in Europe and exposed a deep diplomatic rift between the traditional transatlantic security partners. The controversy over Iraq has also ignited strong anti-American sentiments and threatened international cooperation in the war against Al Qaeda.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Europe, and Middle East
1054. Casualties of War: Transatlantic Relations and the Future of NATO in the Wake of the Second Gulf War
- Author:
- Christopher Layne
- Publication Date:
- 08-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The Iraq War represents a turning point in transatlantic relations. Euro-American ties have been ruptured, and never again will be the same. But the growing estrangement between the European powers and the United States is tied primarily to the nature of power in the international system and to America's dominant role in the world today.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and America
1055. Europe between Brussels and Byzantium: Some Thoughts on European Integration
- Author:
- Niall Ferguson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- There is, in theory, a plausible role for the European Union as the partner of a militarily assertive United States: the peacekeeper that follows in the wake of the peacemaker. The war in Iraq, however, has raised the possibility of a diametrically different role for Europe: as a potential imperial rival to the United States. There is no need to invoke the memory of either Rome or Byzantium to make the case that Europe is capable of spoiling America's unipolar party. The successful conclusion of accession agreements with ten new member countries – not to mention the sustained appreciation of the euro against the dollar since Kennedy's article appeared – have seemingly vindicated this analysis. So too, in the eyes of some commentators, has the vociferous and not wholly ineffectual opposition of at least some E.U. member states to American policy in Iraq. If the U.S. has an imperial rival today, then the E.U. appears to be it.
- Topic:
- International Relations and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Europe, Rome, and Brussels
1056. From Alliances to Ambivalence: The Search for a Transatlantic Agenda In the 21st Century
- Author:
- Jackson Janes
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- During the Cold War, European-American relations were often marked by differences over tactics, but we did share for the most part a strategic goal that was to be achieved on the basis of the twin principles of deterrence and détente. Yet there are some that would argue that this past year has been different; that the transatlantic rift goes deeper and will last longer. If the Americans and Europeans cannot find common ground in certain regulatory areas, it may be that we will agree to disagree on the use of GMO's, technological standards, or Anti-trust legislation. This could lead to more competition but also to duplication in an increasingly interwoven global market. Yet, because we face a vastly more complicated environment today than during previous years — full of threats and opportunities — it will remain a challenge for the coming decade to strategize as to how transatlantic political policy problems can best be dealt with.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Cold War, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
1057. Europe's Identity and Islams
- Author:
- Renate Holub
- Publication Date:
- 08-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- Until the break-up of the Soviet Union, dominant intellectual and educational cultures in Europe worked primarily with national concepts. In the twentieth century, nationalist ideologies have, of course, lost some of their glamour due to the impact of two disastrous world wars. But while leading European intellectuals over the past 50 years developed a research program that transcended the national spirit, they nonetheless remained bound by the concept of “modernity,” which comprises the concept of the modern nation state and the modern nation state system. Steeped in this cultural unconscious, Europe has neglected the systematic study of alternative modernities and alternative systems of governmentality -- including systems of democratic governmentality in the internet age -- especially as these alternative modernities relate to the influx of Muslim populations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, and Population
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Soviet Union, and Arabia
1058. Problem-Solving Effectiveness and Democratic Accountability in the EU
- Author:
- Fritz W. Scharpf
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- The paper begins by examining the functions of input-oriented and output-oriented legitimating arguments in liberal democracies. At the European level, input-oriented arguments remain weak, but legitimacy problems are generally avoided since the policies which can in fact be adopted under prevailing institutional conditions are still based on broad intergovernmental consensus. For a variety of new policy challenges, however, consensus on the choice of European solutions is unlikely to be reached, even though member states are unable to cope with such challenges on their own. Among the examples discussed are the notorious problems of a common foreign, security and defense policy and the spillovers of European economic integration that are challenging national welfare regimes. The resulting problem-solving gaps, which may undermine political legitimacy nationally and in the EU, could not be legitimately overcome by moving from consensual to majoritarian governing modes at the European level. What could help are modes of differentiated integration which allow groups of member states to adopt consensual European solutions applying only to members of the group.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Civil Society
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1059. Asylum Migration and Implications for Countries of Origin
- Author:
- Khalid Koser and Nicholas Van Hear
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this paper is to synthesize what is known about the influence of asylum migration on countries of origin. It combines an analysis of data, a review of the literature and empirical examples from our own research. In the first section we consider the effects of the absence of refugees on countries of origin, focusing on the scale of movements, the characteristics of refugees, where they go and their length of time in exile. In the second section, we review the evidence about the influence of asylum-seekers and refugees on their country of origin from exile. Third, we consider the implications for countries of origin of the return of asylum-seekers and refugees. The conclusion acknowledges the limited state of current knowledge and draws out some policy implications.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Development, Human Welfare, and Migration
1060. Asylum-seekers as Pariahs in the Australian State: Security Against the Few
- Author:
- Claudia Tazreiter
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- During the last decade measures of overt and covert surveillance, information sharing and deterrence of the illegal movement of people has increased within and between states. Border security has come to dominate international relations, and increasingly to deflect the needs of asylum-seekers who search for a state that will offer them substantive protection under the Refugee Convention. Measures of internal and external deterrence diminish the reality of protection to genuine refugees as some of the most vulnerable individuals in the world today. Australia, as a country of relative geographic isolation, has not experienced the large-scale influxes of asylum-seekers seen in many parts of the world. Notwithstanding this, the Australian Government has in recent years implemented harsh policy and administrative measures directed at asylum-seekers with a substantial measure of public support. In August 2001, an incident involving 433 asylum-seekers was branded in popular discourse an 'asylum crisis'. This incident involved a Norwegian freighter, the Tampa, which picked up survivors from a sinking boat who were making their way to Australian waters in order seek protection under the Refugee Convention. The Tampa was repelled by Australian security forces from disembarking the people they had picked up in distress on Australian soil. In this article, I explore the Tampa incident against the backdrop of refugee policy development from 1999. I argue that rather than responding to a crisis, the Australian government has generated the perception of a crisis in the Australian community. Implications of the Australian response to asylum-seekers are significant not only in the Asia/Pacific region, but further afield, as policy responses toward asylum-seekers by receiving states have converged in the recent past.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, Human Welfare, and Migration
- Political Geography:
- Australia/Pacific
1061. Toward a European Strategy for Iraq
- Author:
- Giacomo Luciani and Felix Neugart
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- The Iraq crisis has been a disaster for the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) of the European Union (EU). Member countries are very visibly split in their position towards the war against the regime in Baghdad. EU institutions have been unable to agree on more than the unconditional implementation of the relevant United Nations resolutions leaving the door open for widely diverging interpretations. The challenge of the Iraq crisis does not bode well for the future of a cohesive European Foreign Policy, and the CFSP requires a fresh approach.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and War
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Arabia, and United Nations
1062. In the Shadow of a Cease-fire: The Impacts of Small Arms Availability and Misuse in Sri Lanka
- Author:
- Chris Smith
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- Sri Lanka appears to be entering the final chapter of the 20-year civil war between the Government of Sri Lanka and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Although it may be too early to assess, and the peace process is currently stalled, it does seem that the LTTE is more serious about a sustained peace process than at any time since the violence erupted in 1983.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Sri Lanka
1063. Beyond the Kalashnikov: Small Arms Production, Exports, and Stockpiles in the Russian Federation
- Author:
- Anna Matveeva, Maria Haug, and Maxim Pyadushkin
- Publication Date:
- 08-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes various aspects of the small arms issue in the Russian Federation. There are a number of reasons why a specific study of Russian small arms issues is helpful for policy-makers and researchers interested in small arms and light weapons (SALW). Russia is one of the world's major producers and exporters of SALW. The most successful and famous military assault rifle, the Kalashnikov, originated in the former Soviet Union. While the original rifle is no longer produced in Russia, its derivatives are still in production. The Russian Federation is also a country dealing with internal problems where the availability of small arms exacerbates the situation. These include regions of conflict, such as Chechnya, or problems of crime and personal security in big cities such as Moscow. Various methods have been used to retrieve illegally held small arms from Russian society, including regional buy-back programmes.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Soviet Union
1064. Demand, Stockpiles, and Social Controls: Small Arms in Yemen
- Author:
- Derek B. Miller
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- This paper draws strong conclusions about the dynamics of stockpiles and holdings, demand factors for small arms, and the significance of social controls on individual and community behaviour in Yemen.Using a new method, devised uniquely for this study, to estimate small arms availability at the local level, it is believed that Yemen has between 6-9 million small arms, most of which are from the former Eastern Bloc countries or China, with fewer numbers of various makes and models from other countries, some dating back to the early nineteenth century. This dramatically reduces the popular estimate of Yemen having 50 million small arms. However, this revised estimate includes only an educated guess as to the actual number of weapons in state stockpiles, as well as those in the hands of tribal sheikhs. Though severely reduced, this new figure does not undermine Yemen's status as one of the world's most heavily armed societies, but certainly not the most armed, when one considers both per capita weaponry and their high level of lethality.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
1065. Small Arms in the Pacific
- Author:
- Philip Alpers and Conor Twyford
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- This study examines a wide range of small arms-related issues in 20 nations of the southern Pacific. It investigates the status of existing firearm legislation, the extent of legal stockpiles and illicit trade, and the socio-economic impacts of armed conflict on Pacific communities. Case histories examine more closely the disarmament process in Bougainville and the Solomon Islands, along with the widespread disruption wrought with small arms in Fiji and Papua New Guinea. Current initiatives to combat small arms trafficking in the region are also examined.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- Australia/Pacific, Island, and Guinea
1066. Constructivism and the Role of Institutions in International Relations
- Author:
- Stefano Guzzini
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Although Italy, in comparison to its Northern neighbours, is not a country of constructivists (Lucarelli and Menotti 2002), many of the themes crucial to constructivism are common currency in Italian academia. For constructivism stands for a series of debates in social theory which made a perhaps late yet virulent intrusion into the discipline of International Relations. Its content is probably best understood as the focus which bundles recent discussions on epistemology and the sociology of knowledge, on the agent-structure debate and the ontological status of social facts, and on the reciprocal relationship between these two.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1067. A Europe without Divides? The EU-Russia Partnership and the Case of Virtual Borders
- Author:
- Tarja Cronberg
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- This paper is about a partnership, the aim of which is to create a Europe without divides. A partnership where the vision is to transcend the divide between membership and non-membership and to create co-operation in trade, in stability and security, and in democracy on all levels. The paper examines the implementation of the EU-Russia partnership and its strategy not only on the rhetorical level but also in a micro-perspective seen from a border region (mostly from the EU-side), from a space where the divides whether economic, social or of any other kind are most clearly manifested. As borders manifest social conflict a study of the implementation of the partnership agreement on this micro-level will make visible not only the taken-for-granted assumptions and practices but also new and emerging divides. As a concrete case the creation of a European information society is studied. Will the partners be united in virtual space without divides? Conclusions are drawn on the nature of the partnership, the relationship between the partners and the perspective of a Europe without divides.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
1068. Went for Cost, Stayed for Quality?: Moving the Back Office to India
- Author:
- Rafiq Dossani and Martin Kenney
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Will the next great wave of globalization come in services? Increasingly, components of back-office services, such as payroll and order fulfillment, and some front-office services, such as customer care, are being relocated from the United States and other developed countries to English-speaking, developing nations—especially India, but also other nations, such as the Philippines. Though moving service activities offshore is not entirely new, the pace has quickened of late. The acceleration of this business process offshoring (BPO) is intertwined, though not synonymous, with another phenomenon, namely an increasing willingness by firms to outsource what formerly were considered core activities. It is significant that a substantial number of service activities might move offshore, because it was once thought that service jobs were the future growth area for developed country economies. Manufacturing, by contrast, would relocate to lower labor cost regions offshore. Notably, the services commonly known as “business processes” (BPs) are among the fastest growing job categories in the United States (Goodman and Steadman 2002). Should these jobs begin to move offshore, a new tendency may be under way in the global economy that will be as or more important than the relocation of manufacturing offshore, and might necessitate a rethinking of government policies across a wide spectrum.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- United States, India, Asia, and Philippines
1069. Finding America's Voice: A Strategy for Reinvigorating U.S. Public Diplomacy
- Author:
- Peter G. Peterson, Kathy Bloomgarden, Henry Grunwald, David E. Morey, Shibley Telhami, Jennifer Sieg, and Sharon Herbstman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The United States has a growing problem. Public opinion polls echo what is seen in foreign editorials and headlines, legislative debate, and reports of personal and professional meetings. Anti- Americanism is a regular feature of both mass and elite opinion around the world. A poll by the Times of London, taken just before the Iraq war, found respondents split evenly over who posed a greater threat to world peace, U.S. President George W. Bush or then Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. At the same time, European antiwar protests drew millions, and several national leaders ran successfully on anti- American platforms. Americans at home and abroad face an increased risk of direct attack from individuals and small groups that now wield more destructive power. The amount of discontent in the world bears a direct relationship to the amount of danger Americans face.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, America, and Europe
1070. North Korea: A Phased Negotiation Strategy
- Publication Date:
- 08-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Time is slipping away for a peaceful resolution of the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Israel, East Asia, and North Korea
1071. Taiwan Strait III: The Chance of Peace
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Apparently irreconcilable positions on the 'one China' principle have emerged between China and Taiwan over the last decade, with Taiwan for some time now asserting not only that it is a separate political entity but an independent sovereign country. China for its part remains absolutely unwilling to compromise its position that Taiwan and the mainland are part of one country, and has not renounced the use of force as a means of making that principle a reality. The risk of war between them must, accordingly, continue to be taken seriously.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Peace Studies, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
1072. Taiwan Strait II: The Risk of War
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- China's underlying position on its cross-Strait relations, however strong its current commitment to peaceful diplomacy, is that Taiwan must make sustained, visible progress toward a peaceful settlement or risk a resort to armed hostilities. It has also indicated that any move by Taiwan that might demonstrate its substantive rejection of this new demand could well be the last straw.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Sovereignty, and War
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
1073. Dividing Papua: How Now To Do It
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- A presidential instruction (Inpres) issued in January 2003 to divide Papua, Indonesia's easternmost province, into three parts has done more to create tension and turmoil there than any government action in years. The instruction undercuts a special autonomy law passed by the parliament in November 2001 that assumed the province to be a single territorial unit, and it has thrown Papua's administrative status into legal limbo. It undermines moderate intellectuals who saw special autonomy as a way of strengthening Papuan institutions and encouraging independence supporters to work within the Indonesian state. It has infuriated many Papuans, pro-independence and pro-autonomy alike, who have a deep attachment to Papua as a single political unit with a distinct history and who see the decree as a divide-and-rule tactic by Jakarta. All major religious leaders in the province have come out against it.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Indonesia
1074. Pakistan: The Mullahs and the Military
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The resurgence of the religious parties in the October 2002 elections portends ill for Pakistan's political, cultural and social stability. For the first time in the country's history, an alliance of six major religious parties – the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) – has won power in two provinces, vowing to Islamise state and society through Taliban-like policies. The MMA based its electoral campaign on Islam and anti-U.S. slogans, targeting President Pervez Musharraf's pro-U.S. policies and pledging the enforcement of Sharia law. It now runs the government in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP), bordering on Afghanistan, and shares power in Baluchistan.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, South Asia, and Taliban
1075. Multiethnic State, Ethnically Homogenous State and the Future of the Nation-State in the Balkans
- Author:
- Plamen Pantev
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Austrian National Defence Academy
- Abstract:
- Approaching and testing the capacity and effectiveness of the nation-states in the Balkans is a long-term research necessity for many reasons: First, despite the tendency of making the state boundaries less and less significant in the era of new information technology, global economy and new communications capabilities the nation-state will remain the key organisational unit of the international system and the features of national sovereignty will continue to dominate and influence the management toolbox of international relations and domestic politics. Hence, any form and nuance of the nation-state in the Balkans will have a decisive meaning for dealing with the political and security agenda of the region.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Balkans
1076. Coercion and Risk-Taking in Nuclear South Asia
- Author:
- Verghese Koithara
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- The partition-bred conflict between India and Pakistan that began in 1947 went into remission in 1971 following India's emphatic victory in war that year. It reemerged in 1989 when serious disaffection in the Kashmir Valley gave Pakistan an opening to promote militancy. This created a dangerous situation because it was about the same time that both Pakistan and India also acquired nuclear weapons. There was a major confrontation between the two countries during March-May 1990. Since then there has been continuous tension with each attempting to coerce the other. In May 1998 both countries carried out several nuclear tests each. A year later, during May-July 1999, the two fought a two-month "limited war" in the Kargil region of Kashmir that caused over 1,200 fatalities. Kargil was a clear effort on Pakistan's part to test the deterrence value of its nuclear weapons. In December 2001 India resorted to an unprecedented military mobilization (Operation Parakram), holding out the clear threat of attacking Pakistan unless the latter stopped its sub-conventional operations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, and India
1077. Why Delegate the Allocation of Foreign Aid to Multilateral Organizations? Principal-Agent Problems and Multilateralism
- Author:
- Helen Milner
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
- Abstract:
- Why do countries delegate the distribution of foreign aid to international institutions? Specifically, why have the advanced industrial countries chosen to distribute part of their foreign aid through multilateral organizations, such as the European Union (EU), World Bank, IMF, UN, and regional development banks (RDBs)? The delegation of aid provision to an international institution is puzzling. Why would governments relinquish control over their aid if they are a useful instrument of statecraft? Governments delegate aid delivery to international institutions when their publics lack information about the consequences of aid and fear that their governments will deviate from their wishes concerning its use. By using the international organization to send aid, the government issues a credible signal to voters about the use of foreign aid. This signal leaves all actors better off by helping to solve a principal-agent problem in domestic politics. When publics are skeptical about the benefits of aid, governments are more likely to turn aid over to multilateral organizations in order to reassure taxpayers that their money is being well spent. Using data on about 20 donor countries of the OECD from 1960-2000, I investigate the sources of multilateral giving, showing that public opinion has the expected negative relationship to multilateral aid-giving.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United Nations
1078. Analyser les modes de représentation des intérêts dans l'Union européenne : construction d'une problématique
- Author:
- Sabine Saurugger
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- This article presents conceptual tools to analyse interest representation in the European Union. On the European level, no formal system of representation can be found, but rather a patchwork of representation modes. These modes are influenced by forms of political exchange specific for each country and each political domain, which interact with opportunity structures at the European level. Analysing interest representation in a system of governance, either national, European or international requires taking into account the relations which link interest groups with political and bureaucratic actors at the national level, acknowledging the changes in these relations and to insert all that in a system of governance where actors must find solutions to problems in the management of public policies and not to forget political power games and hierarchies amongst actors. The first part of the article analyses briefly the development of interest group studies in comparative politics as well as in international relations and presents the attempts to systematize these studies undertaken since the 1990. In the second part, I analyse more specifically the network approach, which allows to overcome the cleavage between pluralism and neocorporatism in the study of the relationships between interest groups and state actors. In presenting a critical analysis of the general ideas of the network approach, I propose specific conceptual instruments helping to structure research on interest groups in the European Union.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Politics, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1079. CERI: Les relations civilo-militaires en Croatie, 1990-2001
- Author:
- Jean-François Morel and Renéo Lukic
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- In contrast to most of Eastern and Central European countries that underwent their post-communist transition peacefully, Croatia had to undergo its transition during wartime. The outbreak of the Serbo-Croatian war in Spring 1991 forced Croatia to build rapidly an army to protect its territory. However, at this time, Croatia was an emerging democracy and after the European Community recognised its independence on January 15, 1992, the parliamentary institutions were unable to exert their authority over the Croatian army (Hrvatska vojska, HV). The Croatian President, Franjo Tudjman, and the political party he presided, the HDZ, dominated the HV by way of political penetration. Tudjman, who led Croatia to independence, benefited from a triple legitimacy (political, constitutional and charismatic) that allowed him to exert his power over the HV, much the same as the legitimacy Josip Broz-Tito enjoyed over the Yugoslav National Army in Communist Yugoslavia. The result is that the civil-military regime in Croatia after 1990 suffered from a democratic deficit. After the death of President Franjo Tudjman in December 1999 and the change of majority in the January-February 2000 elections, the new Croatian leadership, particularly President Stjepan Mesic, tried to establish democratic control over the armed forces. However, this aim clashed with the opposition of the Ministry of Defense and of numerous officers still committed to the HDZ. For these reasons, a democratic civil-military regime in Croatia is not yet a reality. However, Croatia has made some progress toward the establishment of a democratic civil-military regime. By trying to join some international organizations (NATO), or by being compelled to cooperate with others (International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, ICTY), Croatia is now in the process of interiorizing the norms concerning the civilian and democratic control of the armed forces upon which these organizations are based. Being a member of the Partnership for Peace (PfP), and wishing to join as soon as possible NATO's Membership Action Plan (MAP), Croatia is obliged to move in this direction.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and War
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Croatia
1080. CERI: New Perspectives on EU-Member State Relationships
- Author:
- Simon Bulmer and Christian Lequesne
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- This paper aims to review the "state of the art" for examining EU-member state relations. It recognises first of all that EU-member state relationships are interactive. Member states are key actors in making EU policy, and their role in this process is central to policy-making studies. However, European integration has an important impact upon the member states: the phenomenon that has come to be termed Europeanization. We review the literatures concerned with these two directions of flow: the analytical issues raised and the theoretical perspectives deployed. We then turn to the empirical literature on EU-member state relationships, and how it operationalises the theoretical literatures (if at all). This empirical literature tends to be organised in two ways: individual or comparative studies of member states' relationships with the EU; or studies of the impact of the EU on types of political actor/institution or on policy areas/sectors. We review both these literatures. On the basis of the identified strengths and weaknesses in the different literatures examined, we suggest a research agenda for future theoretical and empirical work.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Politics, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1081. International Relations and Comparative Politics: Cooperation or Conflict?
- Author:
- Jorge Schiavon
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- This article concentrates in providing an answer to two deeply related questions: is the study of International Relations (IR) and Comparative Politics (CP), in methodological and theoretical terms, intrinsically different, essentially identical, or complementary?, and thus, should we see IR as an autonomous and isolated field of study, as a sub-field of CP, or are both IR and CP valid and deeply related areas of study of Political Science (PS)? To answer these questions, the article is divided in three sections. The first section concentrates on the validity of IR as a field of study. The second section is devoted to discuss the methodological compatibility (or not) between IR and CP, using one central theoretical issue as a case of study: the sources of origins of state motivations as explanatory variable of state actions (specifically cooperation or conflict. Finally, the third and last section to the article presents some insights on how IR theories can be linked, and to certain degree improved, taking into account CP theories, using the example of state preferences developed in the second section. The article concludes that IR and CP theories are very similar in methodological and theoretical terms, and thus, they can complement and cross-fertilize each other, "cooperating" to construct better explanations of the actions of political actors in the domestic and international systems.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, International Cooperation, and Politics
1082. Structure and Choice in Foreign Policy Analysis
- Author:
- Peter Trubowitz
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- How do states choose their foreign policies? Most foreign policy analysis relies on structuralist reasoning to answer this question. Realist theory emphasizes a nation's position in the international distribution of power. A second approach focuses on domestic factors and stresses a country's political institutions. Both traditions focus on constraints on state behavior. The future of foreign policy analysis lies in finding ways to incorporate politics and choice into structuralist reasoning. Three main solutions have been proposed: theories that focus on how international pressures affect competing domestic coalitions, rational choices theories that analyze "two level games," and constructivism. This paper proposes an alternative model that views politicians as political entrepreneurs who seek to consolidate domestic power in national arenas that are conditioned by international constraints. The approach is developed and illustrated in a discussion of foreign policy choice in the United States.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
1083. Assessing Democratic Oversight of the Armed Forces
- Author:
- Sander Huisman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- There is no such thing as the model for democratic control of the armed forces. Perhaps more influential than constitutional arrangements; historical legacies and political cultures are setting conditions. However, a few essentials or principles of democratic oversight can be discerned. This paper aims to provide an overview of the efforts of different post-communist states in establishing democratic oversight over their armed forces. The comparative analysis is based on a study that the staff of the Centre for European Security Studies has conducted last year (Organising National Defences for NATO Membership - The Unexamined Dimension of Aspirants' Readiness for Entry) and the experiences gained from a three-year multi-national programme that CESS has started in 2001 (Democratic Control South East Europe: Parliaments and Parliamentary Staff Education Programme - DEMCON-SEE). This programme is running in seven countries: Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Romania, and Serbia-Montenegro.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Democratization, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, Serbia, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Albania, Croatia, and Montenegro
1084. Evaluation of Security Sector Reform and Criteria of Success: Practical Needs and Methodological Problems
- Author:
- Wilhelm Germann
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- This paper intends to contribute to a systematic consideration of what constitutes success (or failure) in the conduct of Security Sector Reform (SSR). It deliberately refrains from commenting on the substance of the latter. Starting from the premise that realizing the principle of democratic control of armed forces in democratizing and developing countries represents the Archimedean Point and driving element within the overall reform of their respective security sectors the purpose of this paper is to review the need for a normative and methodological framework for evaluation of progress and assessment of success or failure. consider the problems involved in determining, assessing, evaluating and verifying criteria, conditions and factors that are supposed to be instrumental for the achievement of related results.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Democratization, and Development
1085. Security Sector Reform: Concepts and Implementation
- Author:
- Timothy Edmunds
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- Security Sector Reform (SSR) has emerged as a key concept in policy and academic circles in recent years. Its origins stem from two main areas. First, from the development community, who have increasingly acknowledged the important role that the 'security sector' plays in issues of economic development and democratisation. Second from the field of civil-military relations (CMR), particularly in relation to developments in central and eastern Europe, where post communist circumstances have led many analysts to think more holistically about key aspects of the CMR debate. SSR takes a holistic approach to the security sector that manifests itself in two ways. First, by recognising the importance of militarised formations other than the regular armed forces in (civil-military) reform efforts. Second by recognising that the role of security and security sector actors in political and economic reform is important and complex, and not simply limited to questions of military praetorianism and civilian control over the armed forces.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Democratization, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe
1086. Principles and Prerequisites of DCAF, Commonalities of the Best Practices in Established Democracies
- Author:
- Dr. Dietrich Genschel
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- The paper concentrates on the principles and prerequisites of DCAF as followed and applied in established (western) democracies. "Commonality" does not imply adherence to all principles to the same degree and in any detail. National history and tradition do condition the ways in which armed forces are structured and organized, educated, motivated and commanded. "Best practice" does not imply that there are no deviations from the principles and violations of their content. On the other hand the principles themselves take account of dangers of misuse und deviant behavior by providing corrective mechanisms. Overall the principles are guided by a vision of how best democratic and armed forces structures and behavioral features can be harmonized to the benefit of both with clear subordination of the armed forces under democratically legitimized political supremacy, without degrading efficiency and effectiveness.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Democratization, and Politics
1087. International Standards and Obligations: Norms and Criteria for DCAF in the EU, OSCE and OECD Areas
- Author:
- Owen Greene
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- This paper aims to examine existing and emerging international norms and criteria relating to the security sector and security sector reform amongst EU,OSCE and OECD countries. Security sector reform agendas are wide, and this paper focuses particularly on norms and criteria relating to democratic accountability and control of the security sector. It aims to clarify ways in which normative processes in these areas could contribute to international efforts to promote and assist appropriate security sector reform (SSR).
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1088. September 11: New Challenges and Problems for Democratic Oversight
- Author:
- Nicholas Williams
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- The implications of the events of September 11 are not yet fully clear. Generally, national security policies and postures take some time to appreciate the effects of strategic shifts. Even if the lessons are quickly learnt, security structures can be slow to absorb them. European defence structures and capabilities are already subject to the transformation required by the end of east-west confrontation and the arrival in the 1990s of the new demands of crisis management. Yet, over twelve years after the end of the Cold War, the necessary transformations and re-posturing of European armed forces are still under way. This is partly due to the scale of the task; partly the result of the costs of military restructuring (while banking immediately the savings arising from force reductions, Governments have preferred to invest over time in new military capabilities); and partly because there is no great sense of urgency. By definition, crisis management is a question of political choice, rather than a matter of direct national security. Developing the necessary capabilities has been an evolutionary process, subject to the need to manage new programmes within declining defence budgets.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1089. Learning from Case Studies
- Author:
- Malcolm Chalmers
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- When countries are accepted into NATO membership, it will become more difficult to 'test' them on a pass/fail basis since, by virtue of the fact that they will have been accepted into the 'club', they will already have passed. Increasingly, therefore, some other form of process will be needed in order to promote improvements in democratic control of the armed forces in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and NATO
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1090. Why Engage in Security Sector Reform Abroad? International Norms, External Democratization and the Role of DCAF
- Author:
- Gerhard Kümmel
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- The issue of Security Sector Reform (SSR) has gained quite a lot of interest within the last decade both in politics and in academia. However there is no consensus or agreement on what is actually meant by SSR and how it is to be defined. To map the scope of the debate, Timothy Edmunds (2001: 1) distinguishes two approaches to delineate what SSR refers to: "The first is concerned with those militarised formations authorised by the state to utilise force to protect the state itself and its citizens. This definition limits SSR to organisations such as the regular military, paramilitary police forces and the intelligence services. The second approach takes a wider view of SSR, defining it as those organisations and activities concerned with the provision of security (broadly defined), and including organisations and institutions ranging from, for example, private security guards to the judiciary." The first approach may be regarded as constituting something like the minimum consensus on what SSR includes and, thus, seems to be quite undisputed. Also, the examples Edmunds cites as belonging to the second approach seem to be quite legitimate, albeit with this arguably being more the case for the judiciary than for private security guards. Nevertheless, the real problems with the second approach rest in what is being put into the brackets, namely a broad definition of security. This resonates with the debate about the term, the meaning(s) and the dimensions of security. Within this debate, one may observe an extension of the contents of the term security to include, for example, ecological, cultural, and, quite recently, human dimensions (see Buzan 1991; Daase 1991; Buzan/Waever/de Wilde 1998). As a consequence, if these extended dimensions of security were included in the usage of the term security in SSR, this would surely mean overloading the concept because the number of actors involved in SSR would become legion.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1091. Macedonia and Southeastern Europe: Analysing Treats and Risks
- Author:
- Jack Petri
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- It is clear to those who have spent time analysing and defining threats how important it is to do this well. It is not always as clear how to identify some of the more subtle internal non-traditional threats. For defence and military planners, it should be apparent that the work they do in developing an accurate threat analysis is an essential part of the equation used by political leaders to evaluate the form and substance of a nation's armed forces, to determine what resources are necessary to create and sustain defence and military establishments that are capable of successfully dealing with these threats, should it become necessary to do so.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Defense Policy, and National Security
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1092. The European Union: Energy Security and the Periphery
- Author:
- John Gault
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Europe relies upon imported energy, and the degree of this reliance will increase in coming decades. Internal (primarily North Sea) production of liquid fuels will decline, and production of natural gas will reach a plateau, so that incremental hydrocarbon requirements will necessarily come from external sources. This trend of rising energy imports has important security implications.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1093. Transatlantic Relations in a Unipolar World
- Author:
- William Wohlforth
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The state of transatlantic relations is normal - arguably in crisis, arguably not; poised for fundamental change, or for basic continuity. The usual question for conferences on transatlantic relations is whether this situation will continue. My purpose in this paper is to set forth a perspective on the future of the transatlantic relationship based on the central realist proposition that the distribution of capabilities among states is an important background influence on their behaviour. Major changes in international relations often arise from changes in the distribution of power. Important features of the Cold War resulted from the great concentration of power in the United States and the Soviet Union - a condition that came to be called "bipolarity." The Cold War ended in significant measure owing to changes in the distribution of power - namely, the decline and fall of the Soviet Union. As a result of Soviet and Russian decline, a new unipolar distribution has emerged with new consequences for international politics in general and the transatlantic relationship in particular.
- Topic:
- International Relations and NATO
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
1094. Mediterranean Security and Co-Operation: Interest and Role of Italy and Libya
- Author:
- Roberto Aliboni
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- This paper looks at the international relations across the Mediterranean Sea, between the European countries - in particular, the European Union-EU - and the countries of the Near East and North Africa. In this framework, it tries to define the role of Italy and Libya and the joint actions they can carry out to foster peace and co-operation in the area concerned.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Libya, North Africa, and Italy
1095. Trans-Atlantic Relations: Challenges and Opportunities
- Author:
- Wolfgang Ischinger
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Institute at University of Wisconsin, Madison
- Abstract:
- I would like to share some observations about German-American relations, about Afghanistan, about Iraq and the war on terrorism, and about power and the global system. Where does Germany stand today? The recent elections in Germany have brought about a number of significant developments.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Security
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, America, Europe, and Germany
1096. Trans-Atlantic Relations: A Norwegian Perspective
- Author:
- Knut Vollebaek
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Institute at University of Wisconsin, Madison
- Abstract:
- Gilles Bousquet, Dean of International Studies and Director of the International Institute, welcomed guests to the event. Ambassador Vollebæk was introduced by Alfred Defago, former Swiss ambassador to the United States and currently International Institute Visiting Professor. Professor Defago, who invited Ambassador Vollebæk to the UW–Madison campus in conjunction with his International Studies seminar on “Evolving European Perspectives on American Politics and Society,” described Ambassador Vollebæk as one of Europe's top diplomats and as one of the most influential and intellectually brilliant leaders of the diplomatic community in Washington, D.C. Ambassador Vollebæk, a career diplomat, served as Foreign Minister of Norway from 1997–2000 and in that capacity was chairman of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. A tireless advocate for international human rights, he was a leader in efforts to stop the atrocities in Kosovo and played key roles in monitoring conflicts and brokering negotiations in Chechnya, Sri Lanka and the Middle East.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Europe, Washington, Middle East, Norway, Chechnya, Sri Lanka, and Kosovo
1097. The Politics of Sanctions
- Author:
- Simon Chesterman and Béatrice Pouligny
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Do sanctions work? The jury remains out on this question, but two preliminary issues bear further examination also. What are sanctions intended to achieve? And do states actually want sanctions to work? These essentially political questions depend on two discrete dynamics that are the subject of this report, which focuses on sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council. The first is the political context of the Council and how the intentions of key actors are channelled into sanctions regimes. The second is the political economy in which those sanctions operate.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Peace Studies, Political Economy, and United Nations
1098. Achievements in Building and Maintaining the Rule of Law:MSI's Studies in LAC, E, AFR, and ANE
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- Over the past two decades the Latin America and Caribbean region (LAC) has undergone a major political transformation. All countries in the region now have elected civilian governments, with the sole exception of Cuba. With this political opening have come economic liberalization and increased opportunities for citizen participation. The region has moved beyond the formality of elections and is now confronting the more difficult challenge of reforming its other political, economic, and legal institutions.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Civil Society, Diplomacy, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- Cuba, Latin America, and Caribbean
1099. Key Judgments (from October 2002 NIE) - Iraq's Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- We judge that Iraq has continued its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs in defiance of UN resolutions and restrictions. Baghdad has chemical and biological weapons as well as missiles with ranges in excess of UN restrictions; if left unchecked, it probably will have a nuclear weapon during this decade. (See INR alternative view at the end of these Key Judgments.)
- Topic:
- International Relations, United Nations, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
1100. Exchange Rate Regimes and Financial Dollarization: Does Flexibility Reduce Bank Currency Mismatches?
- Author:
- Carlos Ó. Arteta
- Publication Date:
- 09-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The dollarization of bank deposits and credit is widespread in developing countries, resulting in varying degrees of currency mismatches in domestic financial intermediation, which in turn might accentuate bank balance sheet fragility. It is widely argued that flexible exchange rate regimes encourage banks to match dollar-denominated liabilities with a corresponding amount of dollar-denominated assets, ameliorating currency mismatches. Does the behavior of dollar deposits and credit in financially dollarized economies support that presumption? A new database on deposit and credit dollarization in developing and transition countries is assembled and used to address this question. Empirical results suggest that, if anything, floating regimes seem to exacerbate, rather than ameliorate, currency mismatches in domestic financial intermediation, as those regimes seem to encourage deposit dollarization more strongly than they encourage matching via credit dollarization.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States