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21. Bottom-up Accountability in Uganda: Learning from People-centered, Multi-level Health Advocacy Campaigns

Author:
Angela Bailey, Vincent Mujune, and Prima Kazoora
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:
Uganda’s laws, policies and health sector strategies codify openings for citizen participation in planning and monitoring government services, yet these spaces are often inaccessible in practice. In response to this, a consortium of civil society organizations led by GOAL designed and implemented the Accountability Can Transform Health (ACT Health) program in Uganda from 2012 to 2018. This paper draws on program monitoring data, empirical evidence, and supplementary interviews to analyze how and the extent to which the ACT Health multi-level, people-centered advocacy campaigns strengthened accountability for health from the bottom up.
Topic:
Government, Accountability, Advocacy, and Public Health
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

22. COVID-19 and the 2020 US presidential election: Did the pandemic cost Donald Trump reelection?

Author:
Marcus Noland and Eva (Yiwen) Zhang
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
By Election Day 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had killed 234,244 Americans and caused the sharpest macroeconomic downturn in US history. Hypothetical calculations using county-level electoral data show that in a “no pandemic” scenario or a scenario in which the severity of the pandemic was mitigated by 30 percent, Donald Trump would have lost the popular vote but won the electoral vote. In the 20 percent mitigation scenario, the electoral vote would have been tied, giving Trump a presumptive victory in the House of Representatives. For the second time in a row (and the third time since 2000), the candidate who lost the popular vote would have been elected president of the United States.
Topic:
Government, Politics, Elections, Donald Trump, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

23. COVID-19 credit support programs in Europe’s five largest economies

Author:
Julia Anderson, Francesco Papadia, and Nicolas Véron
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
n 2020, European governments mitigated the economic impact of COVID-19 lockdowns and other pandemic-fighting programs through a host of initiatives, including efforts to support credit, such as guarantees for bank loans, particularly to small and medium-sized enterprises. This paper presents detailed information about these national credit support programs in the largest national economies of the European Union (France, Germany, Italy, and Spain) and the United Kingdom. The information was collected through thorough examination of published material and extended exchanges with national authorities and financial sector participants. The analysis focuses on (1) how countries positioned themselves on the many tradeoffs that emerged in designing and implementing the programs; and (2) what explains differences in usage across countries and its leveling off everywhere in the second half of 2020.
Topic:
Government, European Union, Finance, Fiscal Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

24. How China lends: A rare look into 100 debt contracts with foreign governments

Author:
Anna Gelpern, Sebastian Horn, Scott Morris, Brad Parks, and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
China is the world’s largest official creditor, but basic facts are lacking about the terms and conditions of its lending. Very few contracts between Chinese lenders and their government borrowers have ever been published or studied. This paper is the first systematic analysis of the legal terms of China’s foreign lending. The authors collect and analyze 100 contracts between Chinese state-owned entities and government borrowers in 24 developing countries in Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Oceania, and compare them with those of other bilateral, multilateral, and commercial creditors. Three main insights emerge. First, the Chinese contracts contain unusual confidentiality clauses that bar borrowers from revealing the terms or even the existence of the debt. Second, Chinese lenders seek advantage over other creditors, using collateral arrangements such as lender-controlled revenue accounts and promises to keep the debt out of collective restructuring (“no Paris Club” clauses). Third, cancellation, acceleration, and stabilization clauses in Chinese contracts potentially allow the lenders to influence debtors’ domestic and foreign policies. Even if these terms were unenforceable in court, the mix of confidentiality, seniority, and policy influence could limit the sovereign debtor’s crisis management options and complicate debt renegotiation. Overall, the contracts use creative design to manage credit risks and overcome enforcement hurdles, presenting China as a muscular and commercially savvy lender to the developing world.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Debt, Government, and Banking
Political Geography:
China and Asia

25. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the poor: Insights from the Hrishipara diaries

Author:
Risto Rönkkö, Stuart Rutherford, and Kunal Sen
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this paper, we examine the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the livelihoods of the poor. We use an unusually rich data set from a ‘financial diaries’ study known as the Hrishipara Daily Diaries Project. The data set tracks the economic and financial transactions of 60 individuals and their families in a semi-rural setting in Bangladesh on a real-time basis from October 2019 to September 2020. We document individual diarists’ behavioural responses to COVID-19, which reveal the varied experiences of the poor during the pandemic. We find that the pandemic and associated government lockdowns had significant negative effects on the livelihoods of the poor in our study, with financial inflows and outflows, incomes, and household expenditures below pre-pandemic levels during the pandemic period. To cope with the pandemic, households drew down on their cash reserves at home, as well as cutting down on non-food expenditures to protect their spending on food.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Finance, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

26. Firm Profits and Government Activity: An Empirical Investigation

Author:
Petar Jolakoski, Branimir Jovanovic, Joana Madjoska, Viktor Stojkoski, and Dragan Tevdovski
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
If firm profits rise to a level far above than what would have been earned in a competitive economy, this might give the firms market power, which might in turn influence the activity of the government. In this paper, we perform a detailed empirical study on the potential effects of firm profits and markups on government size and effectiveness. Using data on 30 European countries for a period of 17 years and an instrumental variables approach, we find that there exists a robust relationship between firm gains and the activity of the state, in the sense that higher firm profits reduce government size and effectiveness. Even in a group of developed countries, such as the European countries, firm power may affect state activity.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Government, International Political Economy, and Profit
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

27. Questioning Industrial Policy: Why Government Manufacturing Plans Are Ineffective and Unnecessary

Author:
Scott Lincicome and Huan Zhu
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and rising U.S.-China tensions, American policymakers have again embraced “industrial policy.” Both President Biden and his predecessor, as well as legislators from both parties, have advocated a range of federal support for American manufacturers to fix perceived weaknesses in the U.S. economy and to counter China’s growing economic clout. These and other industrial policy advocates, however, routinely leave unanswered important questions about U.S. industrial policy’s efficacy and necessity: What is “Industrial Policy”? Advocates of “industrial policy” often fail to define the term, thus permitting them to ignore past failures and embrace false successes while preventing a legitimate assessment of industrial policies’ costs and benefits. Yet U.S. industrial policy’s history of debate and implementation establishes several requisite elements – elements that reveal most “industrial policy successes” not to be “industrial policy” at all. What are the common obstacles to effective U.S. industrial policy? Several obstacles have prevented U.S. industrial policies from generating better outcomes than the market. This includes legislators’ and bureaucrats’ inability to “pick winners” and efficiently allocate public resources (Hayek’s “Knowledge Problem”); factors inherent in the U.S. political system (Public Choice Theory); lack of discipline regarding scope, duration, and budgetary costs; interaction with other government policies that distort the market at issue; and substantial unseen costs. What “problem” will industrial policy solve? The most common problems purportedly solved by industrial policy proposals are less serious than advocates claim or unfixable via industrial policy. This includes allegations of widespread U.S. “deindustrialization” and a broader decline in American innovation; the disappearance of “good jobs”; the erosion of middle‐​class living standards; and the destruction of American communities. Do other countries’ industrial policies demand U.S. industrial policy? The experiences of other countries generally cannot justify U.S. industrial policy because countries have different economic and political systems. Regardless, industrial policy successes abroad – for example, in Japan, Korea and Taiwan – are exaggerated. Also, China’s economic growth and industrial policies do not justify similar U.S. policies, considering the market‐​based reasons for China’s rise, the Chinese policies’ immense costs, and the systemic challenges that could derail China’s future growth and geopolitical influence. These answers argue strongly against a new U.S. embrace of industrial policy. The United States undoubtedly faces economic and geopolitical challenges, including ones related to China, but the solution lies not in copying China’s top‐​down economic planning. Reality, in fact, argues much the opposite.
Topic:
Government, Industrial Policy, Manufacturing, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

28. How Much is a Government Job in India Worth?

Author:
Kunal Mangal
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:
Government jobs in India are valuable, not just because they pay relatively higher wages, but also because they provide many valuable amenities, such as lifetime tenure, access to bribes, and prestige. Does the value of these amenities compete with the nominal wage itself? I use the observed search behavior of candidates preparing for highly structured competitive exams for government jobs to infer a lower bound on the total value of a government job, including amenities. Based on a sample of 120 male candidates preparing for state-level civil service exams in Pune, Maharashtra, I estimate a total value of at least 425,000 INR per month. This estimate implies that the amenity value of a government job is at least 81% of total compensation. The high amenity value is not driven by misinformed beliefs about the nominal wage, nor by a high value placed on the process of studying itself. I conclude with a discussion of the implications of these findings for policy and the questions it raises for future research.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Employment, Public Sector, Job Creation, and Workforce
Political Geography:
India

29. Cooperation in Tertiary Prevention of Islamist Extremism

Author:
Sofia Koller
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
In tertiary prevention of Islamist extremism, civil society and governmental exit programs support individuals (and their families) who wish to disengage from violent extremist groups and distance themselves from extremist ideologies. Exit work and successful reintegration into society involves security agencies as well es very practical elements provided by municipal actors, public services, and civil society organizations. Effective cooperation between civil society and governmental actors including statutory bodies is crucial but can be challenging.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Government, Violent Extremism, and Islamism
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, Belgium, and Netherlands

30. Kuwait’s New Government: A Political System in Crisis?

Author:
Eran Segal
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Kuwait’s new government, which was sworn in on March 3, is facing what could be a "perfect storm," combining a troublesome mix of political and economic problems that could lead to a substantial change, and perhaps instability. These developments raise the specter of a crisis similar to that of 2012, when Kuwait experienced two separate elections and massive demonstrations.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Middle East and Kuwait

31. Is the Muslim Brotherhood losing Turkey and Qatar in the light of the rapprochement with Egypt?

Author:
Michael Barak
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Egypt's relations with Turkey and Qatar have been improving for the last six months, following a long period of diplomatic crises and hostility that lasted eight years and four years, respectively. This rapprochement is an attempt to reset relations in a way that would allow all three parties to maintain their good relations with the new U.S. administration. As a condition for normalizing ties, Egypt had demanded that Turkey and Qatar end their support to the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). This demand has been described in the Arab media as an ominous sign for the MB, which feared it would be sacrificed on the altar of Turkish and Qatari state interests. However, the discourse of the MB's members on the subject, the continued anti-Egyptian remarks of senior Turkish government officials, and the intention of the Egyptian government to execute senior MB leaders suggests that the chances of Turkey and the MB ending their relationship are quite slim. Qatar, for its part, continues to allow the MB's members to find refuge within its borders, but at the same time is not interested in provoking Egypt.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Government, and Muslim Brotherhood
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Egypt, Qatar, and Gulf Nations

32. Jordan: With Relations with Washington and Jerusalem Back in Order, a Flurry of Diplomatic Activity

Author:
Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Jordanian diplomacy has been invigorated in recent months, with Jordan taking a major and sometimes leading role in significant regional developments. The renewed intensity and prominence are associated with marked improvement in relations with the United States and Israel, following the leadership changes in both countries. King ʿAbdullah II seems to have received a fresh mandate from the Biden Administration to help promote regional changes aimed at reducing the influence of Iran and its allies, in an era of declining direct American engagement in the region.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Government, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, Iraq, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, and United States of America

33. The Death of Chad’s Warrior President: What it Means for the Region and the World

Author:
Eline Rosenhart
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Ifriqiya, Eline Rosenhart explains how the recent killing of Chad's long-term president, Idriss Déby Itno, puts the country in a precarious situation. She analyzes the historical background of his regime, and notes that this could be an opportunity for Chadians to make the political system more inclusive.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Africa and Chad

34. For Mozambique’s government, is radical Islam exclusively a security issue?

Author:
Rina Bassist
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Ifriqiya, Rina Bassist analyzes the response of the government of Mozambique to the growing security threat of Islamist violence in the north of the country. To address this problem, she explains the background of the issue and calls for a broad approach that would deal with social and ethnic marginalization, as well.
Topic:
Security, Government, Islam, Violence, and Marginalization
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

35. Independent Assessment of the Implementation of the 2020 State Budget of Azerbaijan

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
This independent evaluation aims to investigate the implementation of the 2020 State Budget of Azerbaijan. The pandemic, which has lasted since 2020, has brought significant changes in the world. The changes in terms of both quality and quantity were reflected in the economic environment and individual's livelihood. Because of the requirement for long-term quarantine conditions to battle the pandemic, both developed and developing countries have experienced economic downturns. The research comprises forecast indicators defined by the appropriate executive authority during the year, as well as the draft legislation on 2020 state budget implementation, in addition to the forecast indicators represented in the material provided with the original and updated draft state budget for 2020. The basic order is as follows; introduction, revenues, expenditures, fiscal sustainability, sequestration of costs, cost reduction, receipt of subsidies from the budget, optimization of receivables, distribution of expenditures, and debts. The results included graphical and tabular descriptions.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Budget, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

36. Employment Mobility and the Belated Emergence of the Black Middle Class

Author:
Joshua Weitz, William Lazonick, and Philip Moss
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
As the Covid-19 pandemic takes its disproportionate toll on African Americans, the historical perspective in this working paper provides insight into the socioeconomic conditions under which President-elect Joe Biden’s campaign promise to “build back better” might actually begin to deliver the equal employment opportunity that was promised by Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Far from becoming the Great Society that President Lyndon Johnson promised, the United States has devolved into a greedy society in which economic inequality has run rampant, leaving most African Americans behind. In this installment of our “Fifty Years After” project, we sketch a long-term historical perspective on the Black employment experience from the last decades of the nineteenth century into the 1970s. We follow the transition from the cotton economy of the post-slavery South to the migration that accelerated during World War I as large numbers of Blacks sought employment in mass-production industries in Northern cities such as Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Chicago. For the interwar decades, we focus in particular on the Black employment experience in the Detroit automobile industry. During World War II, especially under pressure from President Roosevelt’s Fair Employment Practices Committee, Blacks experienced tangible upward employment mobility, only to see much of it disappear with demobilization. In the 1960s and into the 1970s, however, supported by the Civil Rights Act and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, Blacks made significant advances in employment opportunity, especially by moving up the blue-collar occupational hierarchy into semiskilled and skilled unionized jobs. These employment gains for Blacks occurred within a specific historical context that included a) strong demand for blue-collar and clerical labor in the U.S. mass-production industries, which still dominated in global competition; b) the unquestioned employment norm within major U.S. business corporations of a career with one company, supported at the blue-collar level by massproduction unions that had become accepted institutions in the U.S. business system; c) the upward intergenerational mobility of white households from blue-collar employment requiring no more than a high-school education to white-collar employment requiring a higher education, creating space for Blacks to fill the blue-collar void; and d) a relative absence of an influx of immigrants as labor-market competition to Black employment. As we will document in the remaining papers in this series, from the 1980s these conditions changed dramatically, resulting in erosion of the blue-collar gains that Blacks had achieved in the 1960s and 1970s as the Great Society promise of equal employment opportunity for all Americans disappeared.
Topic:
Government, History, Employment, Inequality, Mobility, Unions, Middle Class, New Deal, African Americans, and Great Migration
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

37. Successful Failure in Public Policy Work

Author:
Matt Andrews
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
It matters if public policies succeed in solving societal problems, but a dominant narrative holds that policies fail ‘often’. A large-sample study discussed in this paper suggests that this is not accurate, however. The most common policy result in this study is more ambiguous—what I call ‘successful failure’. Such result is achieved when a policy delivers enough low-level, short-term product to promise success, but ultimately (and repeatedly) fails to contribute to sustained highlevel, long-term impact (addressing the problems citizens care about). Such ‘successful failure’ is endemic to public policy work, and a more pernicious result than outright failure: It allows policy design and implementation actors to associate with incomplete near-run success but insulate themselves from future failure (which they blame on factors and actors beyond their control) and simultaneously enjoy repeated demand for work (because problems are never really solved.
Topic:
Government, Public Policy, and Problem Solving
Political Geography:
Global Focus

38. The Financial Decentralization Of Local Governments Tested By The Principle Of Cash Flow In Cameroon

Author:
Theophile Nguimfack Voufo and Steve Tametong
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
In the face of the multiple socio-political crises that Cameroon is experiencing, the form of the state is now being debated, against the backdrop of the issue of governance. Seen in its political, administrative or financial dimensions, state governance has failed miserably in terms of socio-economic development issues. To remedy this, the public authorities recognize the need to complete the decentralization process. Is this commitment, which is regularly reinforced by the media, a way out of the crisis? From a legal point of view, the evolution of the decentralization process is marked by two fundamental requirements: the transfer of powers on the one hand, and the subsequent transfer of resources to exercise these powers on the other. Since 2010, the central executive has been committed to the transfer of powers to local authorities. However, the principles of complementarity, subsidiarity and even concomitance mark the return of the state, whereas decentralization implies a priority of action for the decentralized communities. In this respect, the transfer of powers is accompanied by the transfer of resources, in particular local taxation and allocations from the State budget. Local taxation, grants and own resources acquired by decentralized authorities constitute the basis of financial decentralization. It requires that the resources transferred to local governments be freely managed. This refers to the ability to mobilize these resources without being hindered by state bodies. This freedom remains an illusion in the presence of the principle of the unity of the treasury. This principle links the treasury of decentralized communities to that of the State, which can have several implications for the financial freedom of action of these communities. Given the current challenges of decentralization in Cameroon, the question arises as to whether the unity of the treasury is compatible with the financial decentralization of decentralized local authorities. Questioning the relevance of this principle allows us to verify whether this classic rule is not already obsolete in Cameroon. Analysis shows that the principle of the cash unit is incompatible with financial decentralization (I) and should be reconsidered (II).
Topic:
Government, Finance, Local, and Decentralization
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

39. Access and Use of ICT in Budget Transparency and Accountability in Local Governments

Author:
Florence Kuteesa, Susan Namirembe Kavuma, and Richard Ayesigwa
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
This study examined the levels of awareness, access and capacities of local Government administration to use ICT tools and e-government services in the budgeting process in the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pursuit of improved e-government services for budget transparency and accountability became the norm in Uganda. The Public Finance Management Act 2015, Section 12(2) mandates all stakeholders to promote and enforce transparent, efficient, and effective management of public expenditure.The findings of the study showed the potential of ICT to significantly enhance Budget Transparency and Accountability.
Topic:
Government, Science and Technology, Communications, Budget, Accountability, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

40. Linkages between Inequality, Exclusion, and the Occurrence of Elections with Protest Activity Against Governments

Author:
Paul von Chamier
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
There is ample research on the correlation between inequality and exclusion on one side and conflict on the other. For instance, the connection between inequities and violence is one of the underpinnings of the concept of fragile situations, utilized frequently by the World Bank and showcased in publications such as the World Development Report 2011 or Pathways for Peace 2018. It is therefore tempting to draw a logical conclusion that escalating inequality and exclusion can be influenced by both violent conflicts and events such as civilian disorder and political volatility. It also makes sense at an intuitive level as humans are wired to spot unfairness when it affects them, which fits into this hypothesis. The linkage has been in fact proposed since at least the antiquity. For example, in 4th century BCE, Aristotle warned that accumulation of wealth among few Athenians could lead to toppling of the city government. In more modern times, communist revolutionaries were predicting a worldwide violent uprising by the impoverished, agitated by economic injustice. A recent New Yorker article draws the arc between inequities and protests in Latin American countries.
Topic:
Government, Inequality, Violence, and Exclusion
Political Geography:
Latin America