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62. Lessons from the COVID-19 Crisis: 6 Opportunities to Strengthen Conflict Sensitivity across the HumanitarianDevelopment-Peacebuilding Nexus
- Author:
- Céline Monnier and Leah Zamore
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic, and efforts to control its spread—including lockdowns, social distancing measures, and border closures—have led to unprecedented health, humanitarian, and socioeconomic shocks worldwide. These shocks, in turn, are raising the likelihood that risks for many forms of violent conflict—crime, armed conflict, violent extremism—may increase. It is crucial for the United Nations (UN) to adopt a conflict-sensitive lens in all relevant operations across the humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding (HDP) nexus to prevent an increasingly volatile situation from deteriorating further.
- Topic:
- Development, United Nations, Conflict, COVID-19, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
63. Chronic Crisis Financing? Fifty Years of Humanitarian Aid and Future Prospects
- Author:
- Gary Milante and Jannie Lilja
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- This study maps trends of humanitarian funding in the context of total aid at the country level between 1969 and 2019 and estimates how these trends will change in the future. Historical trends show that the composition of aid has changed significantly in the last two decades: the humanitarian share of total aid to countries has increased from approximately 5 per cent in the 1990s to 23 per cent in 2019. Humanitarian aid was originally intended to respond to short-term emergencies, however, most of today’s humanitarian financing goes to protracted situations. Today many countries receive high levels of humanitarian assistance for a decade or longer, referred to in this paper as ‘chronic’ crises. More than half of total global humanitarian assistance (59 per cent) in the decade 2010–19 went to chronic crises, typically synonymous with conflict-affected, fragile and refugee-hosting settings. These chronic crises have become more prevalent since 1995. Conservative forecasts suggest that 71 per cent of humanitarian assistance over the next decade will continue to go to countries receiving high levels of assistance today. The study concludes with open questions to policymakers regarding the use of the humanitarian financing instrument. In chronic crisis settings, the strategic balance between humanitarian, development and peacebuilding financing and the interplay between these financing streams deserves attention.
- Topic:
- Development, Humanitarian Aid, Finance, Resilience, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
64. Climate Change and Violent Conflict in West Africa: Assessing the Evidence
- Author:
- Kheira Tarif
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- West Africa is widely cited as a hotspot of climate change and insecurity. This SIPRI Insights uses a systematic literature review of academic research to build a better understanding of the relationship between climate change and violent conflict in the region. Its findings are structured around four established ‘pathways’ of climate insecurity: (a) worsening livelihood conditions; (b) increasing migration and changing pastoral mobility patterns; (c) tactical considerations by armed groups; and (d) elite exploitation of local grievances. The literature review highlights a number of important variables in the relationship between climate change and violent conflict in West Africa: maladaptation to livelihood insecurity; migration away from climate-exposed areas; escalating farmer–herder conflicts; and sometimes weak, sometimes divisive, sometimes exploitative governance. Despite these findings, the literature review reveals current research and policy discussions on climate change and violent conflict in West Africa are informed by a very limited amount of academic research.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Development, Conflict, Violence, Risk, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa and West Africa
65. China’s Development Path: Government, Business, and Globalization in an Innovating Economy
- Author:
- Yin Yi and William Lazonick
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- We employ the “social conditions of innovative enterprise” framework to analyze the key determinants of China’s development path from the economic reforms of 1978 to the present. First, we focus on how government investments in human capabilities and physical infrastructure provided foundational support for the emergence of Chinese enterprises capable of technological learning. Second, we delve into the main modes by which Chinese firms engaged in technological learning from abroad—joint ventures with foreign multinationals, global value chains, and experienced high-tech returnees—that have contributed to industrial development in China. Third, we provide evidence on achievements in indigenous innovation—by which we mean improvements in national productive capabilities that build on learning from abroad and enable the innovating firms to engage in global competition—in the computer, automobile, communication-technology, and semiconductor-fabrication industries. Finally, we sketch out the implications of our approach for current debates on the role of innovation in China’s development path as it continues to unfold.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Globalization, Infrastructure, Hegemony, and Innovation
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
66. Cooperation against the odds: Getting small firms to work together in unfavourable circumstances
- Author:
- Kira Gartzou-Katsouyanni
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- How can we get small firms to work together in order to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes, despite adverse circumstances? This policy paper provides an answer to this question that could be useful both to policymakers and to local stakeholders seeking to undertake innovative, cooperative economic activities in their area. Based on evidence from eight case studies within the Greek agri-food and tourism sectors, I argue that a small group of local actors, whom I call ‘institutional entrepreneurs’, usually play a key role in catalysing the emergence of cooperation at the local level. Their strategies and experiences carry valuable insights. I also outline the characteristics that macro-level institutional frameworks need to have if they are to facilitate local cooperation. These characteristics can inform the design of institutions at both the domestic and the EU level. The paper’s findings could be relevant to people interested in local development, but also to those concerned with boosting the productivity and export orientation of the Greek economy as a whole. After all, cooperation can improve the performance of small firms, and it is thus an important ingredient for inclusive growth in countries with a lot of small firms, such as Greece.
- Topic:
- Development, Economy, Business, and Production
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Greece
67. The Second Phase of the EU Southern Gas Corridor: Which role for Azerbaijan?
- Author:
- Marika Karagianni
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- The operation of the Southern Gas Corridor marks the first attempt of the EU to diversify its pipeline gas supplies and routes beyond Russia. The 2nd Phase of the Corridor, which involves the operation of several gas interconnectors in South Eastern Europe, is being promoted, while the EU is looking for additional supply sources, namely LNG. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, coupled with the intense energy crisis in Europe, has reinforced these trends. Field development in Azerbaijan and future prospects for LNG exports, primarily from the US, are discussed in this article as realistic options for alternative supply sources for Europe.
- Topic:
- Development, European Union, Gas, Exports, and Pipeline
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Central Asia, and Azerbaijan
68. EU-Africa relations ahead of the EU-AU Summit: Taking stock, looking forward
- Author:
- Pavlos Petidis
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- The European Union’s (EU) development policy is a broad field of activity that has undergone multiple significant modifications in both its definitions and its goals. The external relations of the European Union have long included development policy, resulting in an asymmetrical relationship with Africa. Since the turn of the century, the scope of the EU-Africa relationship has expanded to cover new challenges including climate change, terrorism, trade liberalization, and migration. EU development policies reveal a long-term shift in EU development priorities away from fundamental development goals and toward a wider array of ambitions, actors, and methodologies. Identifying and prioritizing the International Organizations on which it and its member states should best focus their diplomatic and political capital is a challenge. Given the political clout and relevance of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) for the continent’s economic development, the EU can concentrate its efforts on encouraging its implementation by deepening its Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs). Working together to strengthen multilateralism and support the implementation of the European Green Deal and the AfCFTA form the axis of a new articulated African agency.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Diplomacy, Migration, Terrorism, European Union, Partnerships, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Europe
69. The Indo-Pacific Partnership and Digital Trade Rule Setting: Policy Proposals
- Author:
- Lurong Cheh
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- The idea of the Indo-Pacific was borne from a global trend that has (re)oriented the centre of the world’s economic gravity to the East. Accelerating digital transformation to harness gains from technology are in countries’ common interests. The launch of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity tends to supplement economic benefits to the Indo-Pacific. Becoming more deeply involved in the digital economy will require Indo-Pacific members to commit to new international norms on digital trade, of which trade liberalisation of electronic transmissions, free flow of data with trust, cybersecurity, and intellectual property rights protection must be prioritised.
- Topic:
- Development, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Digital Economy
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Indo-Pacific
70. Japan and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)
- Author:
- Mie Oba
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This paper aims to clarify the role of Japan in the process leading up to the establishment of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). While emphasising that respect for the centrality of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was a principle of RCEP, Japan played a leading role in the process of RCEP negotiations. For Japan, RCEP is one of the fruits of its strategy in East Asia/Asia-Pacific that began the mid-1990s to protect and increase the interests and advantages of Japanese business and retain Japan’s political leverage in the region. When substantial negotiations for RCEP began in 2013, its importance for Japan was secondary to other free trade agreements (FTAs) including the Trans-Pacific Partnership, China–Japan–Korea FTA, and Japan–European Union FTA. However, the Government of Japan and the business community had set a lot of economic and strategic goals in promoting RCEP. After the withdrawal of the United States (US) from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, RCEP was seen as an essential framework for establishing a rules-based regional order in the Indo-Pacific region. Although it was after India’s withdrawal from the RCEP negotiations, Japan further emphasised the importance of RCEP as the measure to sustain and foster the rule-based regional order and simultaneously pursued the conclusion of negotiations and the establishment of high-level rules, achieving some success. Ultimately, the havoc brought about by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and the sense of crisis in the traditional liberal international order caused by the intensifying strategic competition between the US and China, drove the conclusion of RCEP. RCEP will be increasingly important for economic order in Japan and Asia in the coming years. Ironically, as the strategic competition between the US and China escalates and leads to a surge in protectionism, the economic and strategic importance of RCEP – an FTA that incorporates China – is becoming more significant as a measure to counter unilateralism and protectionism. In addition, RCEP needs elements that address globalisation’s adverse effects and pitfalls, in areas such as the environment, labour rights, and a reduction in the disparity between the rich and poor.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
71. Projecting Infrastructure Needs and the Financing Mechanism: A Review of Estimations by ADB, McKinsey, and the OECD
- Author:
- Fauziah Zen and Michael Regan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- How much does a country, a region, and the world need to spend on infrastructure development to fulfil demand? This question has been asked frequently because governments try to see it as a reference for budget allocation and evaluation of development progress. Since infrastructure consists of a wide range of types, qualities, and sizes, it is difficult to come up with a number that represents these variants. Several widely cited attempts have been made to provide estimations of infrastructure needs. This paper aims to assess the features, scope, methods, and suggested financing mechanism of the projections made by the Asian Development Bank (2017), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2017), and the McKinsey Global Institute (2016). It is not meant to focus on the limitations of these projections, but to understand the process used to put these estimates together and the extent to which they provide comparative information.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
72. Implicit Subsidies for Infrastructure and Their Implications for Contingent Liabilities in Selected East Asian Countries
- Author:
- Astrid Dita and Sandy Maulana
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- A government's investment decision for infrastructure development is a form of budget commitment which results in direct liabilities and possible contingent liabilities. The latter is often overlooked when the project preparation is weak where potential risks are insufficiently identified and mitigated and its impact on budget sustainability may worsen in the absence of sound surveillance. Infrastructure projects may thus lead to unmitigated fiscal risk without proper investment decision-making and monitoring framework particularly in the presence of less-than-mature fiscal systems and low public investment management capacity (e.g. as demonstrated by the inability to develop sound project business cases or distinguish project financing from funding issues).
- Topic:
- Development, Infrastructure, Governance, and Investment
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
73. A Global Development Paradigm for a World in Crisis
- Author:
- Rachael Calleja, Beata Cichocka, Mikaela Gavas, and Samuel Pleeck
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- This paper explores how and whether responses to COVID-19, particularly from non-DAC actors, have deepened the transition from an “international” to a “global” development paradigm, and it considers implications for the future of development cooperation. To do so, we map international responses to COVID-19—financial and beyond—to understand the changing nature of development challenges and cooperation as well as the growing role of non-DAC actors as part of this shift. Our analysis shows that while a diversity of actors contributed to international COVID-19 responses, the transition towards a global development paradigm has yet to materialize. Instead, responses to COVID-19 demonstrated clear tensions between the imperative for collaboration and the national interest, with the latter trumping the former.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
74. Building a Portfolio of Pull Financing Mechanisms for Climate and Development
- Author:
- Ranil Dissanayake and Bernat Camps Adrogue
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Pull financing is a powerful but underused mechanism for incentivising progress on hard-to-tackle social problems for which innovation or the take-up of innovation may be part of the solution. It should become part of the ongoing landscape for climate and development work. This paper sets out the specific design features for a portfolio of pull financing mechanisms to support the accelerated development of socially valuable innovations with both climate and development implications. It considers the institutional structure required to manage such a novel mechanism, a process for finding and developing a potential application, and the objectives pull financing should pursue. It then looks in detail at seven applications of pull financing in the climate and development space, each selected to illustrate the potential and challenges of the approach. We conclude by setting out how to construct a high-ambition portfolio of pull financing projects that is both tractable and attractive to potential funders.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Environment, and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
75. The Next Game Changers: A Priority Innovation Agenda for Global Health
- Author:
- Cordelia Kenney and Rachel Silverman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Over the last century, scientific and technological innovation has led to unprecedented improvements in health outcomes—yet research and development (R&D) investments and progress to address health threats has been uneven. Commercial R&D has focused where investors can expect substantial financial returns: rich countries, the diseases that affect them, and high-tech solutions designed for the richest and most sophisticated systems. Despite supplemental funding from philanthropic and government grants, R&D to address many leading causes of death and disability—especially those that primarily affect low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) or insure against future risk—has been consistently underfunded relative to potential health gain. This implies that many untapped opportunities remain to dramatically improve global health and welfare via biomedical innovation. In this paper, we report the results of a horizon-scanning exercise to source opportunities for global health R&D investment—that is, high-value potential biomedical innovations which are currently underfunded but which could be transformative for health, quality of life, and health security in LMICs and around the world. Drawing from a literature review and expert interviews with researchers, economists, funders, advocates, and implementers, we lay out an expansive and high-promise (though non-comprehensive) biomedical innovation agenda for global health spanning the unfinished MDG agenda; non-communicable diseases; and global health security. We conclude with a discussion of implications for research, funding, and practice.
- Topic:
- Development, Health, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Emerging Technology
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
76. Is There a Better Way to Use Global Reserves?
- Author:
- Mark Plant
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Global reserves can serve as a global public good, facilitating the short-term global recovery from the economic impacts of the pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as the longer-term global transition to a sustainable and equitable economic future. Strategic allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) could facilitate sharing of global reserves with low- and middle-income countries to the mutual benefit of advanced and developing countries. This will require the development of new SDR sharing mechanisms, in which multilateral development banks could be instrumental. Other SDR reforms should also be pursued.
- Topic:
- Development, Multilateralism, Sustainability, and Banking
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
77. What’s the Best Way to Bolster the IMF’s Capacity to Lend to Low-Income Countries?
- Author:
- David Andrews
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The IMF’s concessional lending to low-income countries through its Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) has risen dramatically since the start of the pandemic and demand for the PRGT resources is expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels for quite some time. But the surge in lending has strained the PRGT's finances—loan resources have dwindled, subsidy costs have risen sharply, and reserves need bolstering. Projections show the risks to PRGT financing are accentuated given the Russian invasion of Ukraine and rising global interest rates. A multi-pronged decade-long effort is needed to ensure sound PRGT financing: (1) reinforce current fundraising efforts for loan and subsidy resources; (2) promote the use of the PRGT's deposit investment account; (3) terminate the reimbursement of PRGT administrative resources to the IMF's General Resources Account and (4) begin a discussion on IMF gold sales to take place in the out years. Each prong of the effort should start immediately, given the time lags involved in reaching consensus and implementation.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, Finance, and IMF
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
78. Why and How Development Agencies Facilitate Labor Migration
- Author:
- Helen Dempster and Beza Tesfaye
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Development agencies in high-income countries spend a large amount of both official development assistance (ODA) and other forms of financing on migration programming. While most of this spending is aimed at deterring migration, increasingly more is being focused on facilitating migration: to the high-income country itself; within and between low- and middle-income countries; and supporting people on the move and the diaspora. This paper, written by the Center for Global Development and Mercy Corps, aims to explore why and how development agencies in high-income countries facilitate labor, or economic, migration, and how they have been able to justify and expand their mandate in this area. Based on interviews with nine development agencies, we find that development agencies use a range of arguments to justify their work in this area, including supporting economic development and poverty reduction in partner countries while also meeting labor market demands at home or other countries. Yet expanding a mandate in this area requires substantial cross-government coordination and political buy-in, both of which are difficult to achieve. It also requires the ability to be able to use ODA to facilitate labor migration, which is currently up for debate. As development agencies seek to expand their work on labor migration, it will be necessary to define shared goals and start with pilot projects that focus on low-hanging fruit, while maintaining a focus on development and poverty reduction.
- Topic:
- Development, Migration, Diaspora, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
79. Assessment of Expenditure Choices by Low- and Low- Middle-Income Countries During the Pandemic and Their Impact on SDGs
- Author:
- Sanjeev Gupta and Lucas Sala
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Until the COVID pandemic, public spending in low- and low-middle-income countries had been growing modestly. As a result, governments expanded service provision, including in social sectors, and enlarged welfare programs. This was made possible in part by domestic revenue growth. However, the pandemic has significantly lowered revenue receipts of these countries, while creating pressures to spend more on shielding the population and providing support to the economy. Unfortunately, health outlays did not increase as a share of total output during 2000-2018. The preliminary evidence compiled in this paper shows that health spending in relation to GDP increased virtually in all low and low-middle income countries in 2020, though not by as much as in advanced economies. However, higher health spending in low and low-middle income countries is unlikely to be sustained because of the pandemic’s adverse impact on revenues and other spending pressures. Furthermore, COVID has critically scarred the future productivity of these countries. Before the pandemic, the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 was doubtful in part because of the slow pace in generating additional revenues from domestic sources. As the financing needs have increased, the achievement of these goals will be delayed beyond 2030, unless additional financing sources can be found. This means that policy actions will need to be taken by these countries to create additional fiscal space going forward. There is potential to raise more revenues from domestic sources by implementing politically difficult policy measures and generating savings by improving the quality of public spending, including on health.
- Topic:
- Development, Sustainable Development Goals, Sustainability, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
80. Understanding the Cost-Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination in Nigeria
- Author:
- Helen Dempster, Jennifer Dew, Samuel Huckstep, Martina Castigliono, and Cassandra Zimmer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration (GCM) calls on countries of destination to both expand regular migration pathways and take steps to increase the development impact of these pathways. Migration can have a positive impact on the economic development of migrants themselves, their families, their countries of origin, and their country of destination, if aspects such as integration, remittances, and skill transfers are prioritized. This paper, produced by the Center for Global Development (CGD) and the UK office of the International Organization for Migration (IOM), outlines lessons for the UK Government to implement if they are to increase the development potential of both their existing and new immigration pathways, particularly in the agriculture, nursing, and green technology sectors
- Topic:
- Development, Migration, Immigration, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe