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21. The Role of Global Climate Change in Structural Transformation of Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Askar Mukashov and Christian Henning
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
With increasing evidence that rural households in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) opt for deagrarianization as an adaptation strategy to climate change, it is becoming important to understand the role of Global Climate Change (GCC) in ongoing structural transformation processes in these countries. We use Senegal as a case study country and analyze how various GCC scenarios affect the country's economic sectors, households' welfare, and structural transformation patterns. Our simulation results suggest that GCC can increase the country's deagrarianization pace, with industrial and service sectors in the capital Dakar being the most important destinations of the former agricultural labor force. Although unplanned urbanization smoothes the overall negative impact of GCC and decreases spatial income disparities, uncontrolled deagrarianization is also associated with negative externalities. Previous growth-focused studies suggest that services partaking in Senegal’s deagrarianization can hamper its long-term growth prospects, and our results suggest that productivity increase of services can redirect part of the former agricultural labor force towards industrial sectors.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Economics, Environment, Labor Issues, Income Inequality, Rural, and Housing
Political Geography:
Africa and Senegal

22. Economic impact of illicit tobacco in Australia

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
This report commissioned by British American Tobacco Australia, examines the size of the illicit market as well as the economic effects of that market on the national economy. Gains to illicit traders and the potential impact of issues such as money laundering are also discussed. In total, we estimate around $4.9 billion in revenue was lost by the legal economy to the illicit economy by the illicit tobacco trade in 2019. Of the $4.9 billion lost to the legal economy in 2019, we estimate some $2.1 billion flowed to illicit operators.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Tobacco, and Illegal Trade
Political Geography:
Australia

23. The Farmers’ Revolt in India

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Despite India’s achievement of a certain level of self-sufficiency in food production over the decades, the chronic agrarian crisis, often manifested in the suicides of farmers, persists. This dossier traces the causes of this crisis, which go back to the days of British colonial rule and to the choices made by the Indian state at various points since independence.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food, Food Security, Colonialism, and Farming
Political Geography:
India and Asia

24. Beyond Morocco’s agricultural boom: The invisibility and precariousness of a female agricultural workforce

Author:
Lisa Bossenbroek and Hind Ftouhi
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Women workers play a key role in the agricultural sector in Morocco. While their working conditions are known to be dire, the crisis resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic has compounded their economic and social insecurity. This paper discusses the exploitative treatment of female agricultural workers, the poor state and social support given to them so far, and puts forward recommendations on how to improve their lives.
Topic:
Agriculture, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Farming
Political Geography:
Africa and Morocco

25. Transparency for Whom? Grounding Land Investment Transparency in the Needs of Local Actors

Author:
Sam Szoke-Burke
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Transparency is often seen as a means of improving governance and accountability of investment, but its potential to do so is hindered by vague definitions and failures to focus on the needs of key local actors. In a new report focusing on agribusiness, forestry, and renewable energy projects (“land investments”), CCSI grounds transparency in the needs of project-affected communities and other local actors. Transparency efforts that seek to inform and empower communities can also help governments, companies, and other actors to more effectively manage operational risk linked to social conflict.
Topic:
Agriculture, Governance, Transparency, Sustainability, and Community
Political Geography:
Global Focus

26. Transparency of Land-based Investments: Cameroon Country Snapshot

Author:
Sam Szoke-Burke, Samuel Nguiffo, and Stella Tchoukep
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Despite a recent transparency law and participation in transparency initiatives, Cameroon’s investment environment remains plagued by poor transparency.
Topic:
Agriculture, Environment, Law, Transparency, and Land Reform
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

27. Establishing the empirical basis for tracing the development outcomes of agricultural investments

Author:
Helle Munk Ravnborg, Bernard Bashaasha, Rikke Broegaard, Michael Byaruhanga, Evelyne Lazaro, Festo Maro, Khamaldin Mutabazi, Teddy Nakanwagi, and David Tumusiime
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This DIIS Working Paper describes the design of a questionnaire survey developed and implemented in order to trace the development outcomes of foreign agricultural investments in six research locations in Tanzania and Uganda. The questionnaire survey was conducted as part of the Agricultural Investors as Development Actors (henceforward AIDA) research programme which, in particular, focuses on development outcomes in terms of employment, migration, food security and wider dynamic economic effects, such as access to technology, infrastructure and markets; land markets and perceived security of land tenure; and water access and security of tenure. The working paper which serves as a methodological reference document describes the approach which was employed for drawing six independent samples of 400 respondents each, as well as the approach developed for computing a foreign agricultural investment exposure index and for computing a locally informed household poverty index.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Environment, Poverty, Water, Food, Governance, Inequality, Investment, and Land Rights
Political Geography:
Sub-Saharan Africa and Africa

28. Nature-based solutions to development and climate change challenges: Understanding ecosystem-based adaptation approaches

Author:
Marie Ladekjær Gravesen and Mikkel Funder
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Nature-based Solutions (NbS) to climate- and development-related challenges have recently gained attention in development cooperation. Among other, approaches that fall under the NbS umbrella include Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA), Ecosystem-based Mitigation (EbM) and Ecosystem-based Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR). This new DIIS Working Paper focuses on nature-based solutions to climate change adaptation, EbA. It provides an overview of selected lessons learnt from EbA in the context of development cooperation, with a particular emphasis on the opportunities and risks regarding poverty alleviation and rights. It generates learning for Danish development cooperation, including future programming under Denmark’s 2021 development strategy, in which NbS approaches are emphasised. However, the paper can also be read as a general discussion of experiences with EbA in the development context. The three-legged EbA approach focuses on human well-being, ecosystem management, and climate change adaptation. EbA has already been applied to a range of ecosystems, including the restoration of mangroves to shield them against storm and sea-level rises, the management of watersheds to protect against droughts and flooding, the management of rangelands to inhibit desertification and land degradation, and more sustainably managed fisheries and forestry to tackle food insecurity. EbA thus not only addresses the restoration of already degraded ecosystems, but also the sustainable use, management, and conservation of intact ecosystems. The paper provides a conceptual overview of EbA in relation to NbS, outlines the potential in using EbA approaches, and describes the landscape of the institutions and agencies that fund, promote and implement EbA. The paper then provides a synthesis of lessons learned from PES and REDD+ schemes that are of relevance to EbA. For instance, it is emphasised that many REDD+ measures have effectively existed as project islands that were not anchored in national or subnational planning and governance mechanisms. As a result, the conservation activities and socioeconomic benefits were often not effectively integrated or scaled up beyond small project sites. If comprehensively implemented, the EbA approach builds on these experiences by insuring full inclusion of stakeholders from all relevant sectors, as well as demanding full integration in existing policies, planning and governance practices from the ministry levels to sub-national governments. Among the final recommendations and possible entry points for Danish development cooperation, the paper highlights that the support must have a strong focus on ensuring that EbA is pro-poor (i.e. supports poverty alleviation) and rights-based (i.e. supports the rights of local resource users). Experience from EbA and related efforts show that EbA is not automatically pro-poor or supportive of local rights to natural resources and ecosystem services. In particular, there is insufficient attention to and knowledge of rights issues in EbA. Therefore, Danish development cooperation should help lead the way in ensuring that EbA takes a rights-based approach and supports poverty alleviation.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Environment, Poverty, Natural Resources, Water, Food, Governance, Inequality, Investment, and Land Rights
Political Geography:
Global Focus

29. Old Fertilizer in New Bottles: Selling the Past as Innovation in Africa’s Green Revolution

Author:
Timothy A. Wise
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
Rising global hunger in recent years has prompted calls for a broad reckoning over what is wrong with global food systems. Our changing climate has added urgency to the crisis. Many experts warn that our current agricultural practices are undermining the resource base – soil, water, seeds, climate – on which future food production depends. Now the global COVID-19 pandemic threatens to further exacerbate food insecurity for many of the world’s poor. Africa is projected to overtake South Asia by 2030 as the region with the greatest number of hungry people. An alarming 250 million people in Africa now suffer from “undernourishment,” the U.N. term for chronic hunger. If policies do not change, experts project that number to soar to 433 million in 2030. A growing number of farmers, scientists, and development experts now advocate a shift from high-input, chemical-intensive agriculture to low-input ecological farming. They are supported by an impressive array of new research documenting both the risks of continuing to follow our current practices and the potential benefits of a transition to more sustainable farming. The new initiatives have been met with a chorus of derision from an unsurprising group of commentators, many associated with agribusiness interests. They dismiss agroecology as backward, a nostalgic call for a return to traditional peasant production methods which they say have failed to feed growing populations in developing countries. For such critics, the future is innovation and innovation is technology: the kinds of commercial high-yield seeds and inorganic fertilizers associated with the Green Revolution. This paper explores the ways in which this innovation narrative flips reality on its head, presenting Green Revolution practices of the past as if they were new innovations. It does so through the lens of the battle for Africa’s food future, examining the disappointing results from the Alliance for a Green Revolution for Africa (AGRA). In contrast, the real innovations in Africa are coming from soil scientists, ecologists, nutritionists, and farmers themselves who actively seek alternatives to approaches that have been failing small-scale farmers for years. A wide range of farmer organizations, scientists, and advocates offer a broad and diverse array of ecologically-based initiatives based on sound science. These are proving far more innovative and effective, raising productivity, crop and nutritional diversity, and incomes while reducing farmers’ costs and government outlays.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Green Technology, Rural, Innovation, Land, and Farming
Political Geography:
Africa

30. ASEAN Matters for America/America Matters for ASEAN

Author:
East-West Center
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
This project maps the trade, investment, employment, business, diplomacy, security, education, tourism, and people-to-people connections between the United States and the 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) at the national, state, and local levels. Part of the Asia Matters for America initiative, this publication, the one-page connections summaries for states, and the AsiaMattersforAmerica.org website are resources for understanding the robust and dynamic US-ASEAN relationship.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Agriculture, Diplomacy, Health, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Asia, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

31. Approaches for Supporting Smallholders in the Global South: Contentious Issues, Experiences, Syntheses

Author:
Theo Rauch and Michael Brüntrup
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
There is a widely held consensus that it will not be possible to feed the world without the help of the smallholders of Africa, Latin America and Asia, who number up to 570 million farms or 2 billion people. Given the sheer size of this figure alone, the sustainable development of smallholder farming will be key to achieving a range of other sustainability goals.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:
Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Global South

32. Heat and Hate: Climate Security and Farmer-Herder Conflicts in Africa

Author:
Ulrich J. Eberle, Dominic Rohner, and Mathias Thoenig
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
This paper investigates the impact of climate shocks on violence between herders and farmers by using geolocalized data on conflict events for all African countries over the 1997-2014 period. We find that a +1℃ increase in temperature leads to a +54% increase in conflict probability in mixed areas populated by both farmers and herders, compared to +17% increase in non-mixed areas. This result is robust to controlling for the interaction between temperature and ethnic polarization, alternative estimation techniques, disaggregation levels, and coding options of the climatic/conflict/ethnic variables. When quantifying at the continental level the impact on conflict of projected climate change in 2040, we find that, in absence of mixed population areas, global warming is predicted to increase total annual conflicts by about a quarter in whole Africa; when factoring in the magnifying effect of mixed settlements, total annual conflicts are predicted to rise by as much as a third. We also provide two pieces of evidence that resource competition is a major driver of farmer-herder violence. Firstly, conflicts are much more prevalent at the fringe between rangeland and farmland - a geographic buffer of mixed usage that is suitable for both cattle herding and farming but is particularly vulnerable to climate shocks. Secondly, information on groups' mobility reveals that temperature spikes in the ethnic homeland of a nomadic group tend to diffuse its fighting operations outside its homeland, with a magnified spatial spread in the case of conflicts over resources. Finally, we show that violence is substantially reduced in the presence of policies that empower local communities, foster participatory democracy, enforce property rights and regulate land dispute resolution.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Conflict, Violence, and Farming
Political Geography:
Africa

33. Rural Development Hubs: Strengthening America’s Rural Innovation Infrastructure

Author:
Community Strategies Group
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
This report focuses on the role — and aggregates the wisdom — of a specific set of intermediaries that are doing development differently in rural America. We have chosen to call them Rural Development Hubs — or Hubs for short. We focus here on Rural Development Hubs because they are main players advancing an asset-based, wealth-building, approach to rural community and economic development in this country.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Rural, Economic Development, Community, and Farming
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

34. An Analysis of the use of Chemical Pesticides and their Impact on Yields, Farmer Income and Agricultural Sustainability: The Case for Smallholder Farmers in Ethiopia

Author:
Aparna Rao and Risa Morimoto
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
In economic theory, the agricultural sector plays an undisputed role in growth, development and poverty reduction in a country. The sector is pivotal for a vast majority of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), given the large number of people dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. With the constraints on land expansion and the dual threat of climate change and an ever increasing population, agricultural productivity has become a key matter of concern in agricultural economics. Given this, a vast majority of literature focuses on improving productivity to meet food demand at any cost. A large percentage of it is focused on the use of pesticides, pre-harvest, to eradicate pests and diseases that lead to losses in the produce. As a result, there has been a significant increase in global pesticide usage over the last few years.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, Poverty, Economic Theory, Sustainability, and Farming
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

35. Popular Agrarian Reform and the Struggle for Land in Brazil

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
This dossier discusses the current stage of the struggle for land in Brazil; at its epicenter is the contrast between two vastly different agricultural models: agribusiness versus agroecology. Key to the agroecological model is the concept of popular agrarian reform, which proposes the full-scale reorganisation of landholdings that goes far beyond democratizing access to land, challenging the hegemonic form of capital and presenting a different conception of and a model for agriculture and agrarian life.
Topic:
Agriculture, Reform, Land, and Farming
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

36. Understanding Climate-Security Risks: A Mechanism-based Approach

Author:
Zafar Imran
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:
Whether climate change can stoke political violence and civil conflict is a critical and controversial question. Differences in methodological traditions (qualitative vs. quantitative) are often blamed for academic infighting over this question. This brief suggests that the real problem lies with an impoverished understanding of the process of climate change, particularly how social and ecological systems interact, and how changes in either propagate through the other and generate feedbacks. By presenting a dynamic understanding of the climate-conflict equation, this brief presents a mechanism-based analytical framework that can be used to study the complex phenomenon across diverse social settings. It illustrates the approach by tracing mechanisms through which climate change is fueling protests by farmers in Pakistan, and suggesting other potential applications.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Environment, Conflict, and Rural
Political Geography:
Global Focus

37. Agricultural Value Chains in Development Cooperation

Author:
Jana Herold
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
The support of agricultural value chains has become an important approach in German and international development cooperation, not only to promote the economic development of a country but also to contribute to poverty reduction and food security by integrating smallholder farmers into value chains. In consequence, this approach can address a number of goals of the Agenda 2030 for sustainable development. While promoting value chains has great potential to advance sustainable development, it can also have negative effects, particularly for poor and vulnerable population groups. In order for these population groups to be able to benefit from value chain support, they need targeted financial and technical support and bridging assistance. Therefore, the approach should primarily aim at poverty reduction, but also at improving food security, empowering women and sustainable natural resource management. The main challenges of the value chain approach are insufficient access to agricultural inputs, markets and agricultural credits and the lack of entrepreneurial know-how for market-oriented production. Overall, the INEF research on agricultural value chains shows that their promotion should always start with primary production, as this is the basis for any further added value. However, the land use rights of the population eligible for support, especially women, should be clarified before any investment is made. Another critical point that any support for value chains should take into account is a country's physical infrastructure. It is necessary to connect both primary production and processing to markets. The integration of smallholder farmers into value chains is particularly viable via primary production. In order to include resource-poor farmers into value chains as well, these should be actively supported at the beginning of the project, among other things through training in market-oriented production. Furthermore, access to financial services and bridging assistance as well as to agricultural inputs is of key importance, especially at the beginning of the growing season, and particularly when market-oriented production is started for the first time. Access to credits can be facilitated by organising in cooperatives. Furthermore, this form of organisation makes it possible to bundle resources and strengthen negotiating power vis- à-vis buyers. In order to ensure that smallholder farmers can continue to supply themselves with food, especially at the start of operations, a sole focus on cash crops should be avoided and instead healthy staple foods should also be promoted. To support sustainable production, the support of value chains should always include natural resource management measures. This can increase productivity and, compared to previous practice, at the same time achieve a more ecologically sustainable cultivation of the land. In this context, secured land use rights, especially for women, provide additional incentives for farmers to invest in their fields. The studies also show that the processing of local agricultural products and commercially harvested products offers income-generating activities especially for women. In this context, locally adapted partial mechanisation is important in order to increase production efficiency without displacing women from further processing.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Food Security
Political Geography:
Global Focus

38. Agricultural input subsidy and farmers outcomes in Tanzania

Author:
Bethuel Kinyanjui Kinuthia
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of the government input subsidy—the National Agriculture Input Voucher—on farmers’ production and welfare in Tanzania as well as the factors that influence agricultural production in the country. The analysis is based on the Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture for 2008–13. The study uses panel fixed effects and difference-in-difference and propensity score matching methods to examine the two objectives. The results show that the input subsidy programme resulted in an initial increase in maize and rice production but not in the long run and only in a few regions. In addition, there was a decrease in total production in the southern region and the programme had little effect on farmers’ welfare. The results show that this programme only partly met the expected outcomes in Tanzania due to mistargeting, inaccurate identification of households, and poor implementation.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Welfare, Farming, and Subsidies
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

39. Do Commodity Price Shocks Cause Armed Conflicts? A Meta-Analysis of Natural Experiments

Author:
Graeme Blair, Darin Christensen, and Aaron Rudkin
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
Scholars of the resource curse argue that reliance on primary commodities destabilizes governments: price fluctuations generate windfalls or periods of austerity that provoke or intensify civil conflict. Over 350 quantitative studies test this claim, but prominent results point in different directions, making it difficult to discern which results reliably hold across contexts. We conduct a meta-analysis of 46 natural experiments that use difference-in-difference designs to estimate the causal effect of commodity price changes on armed civil conflict. We show that commodity price changes, on average, do not change the likelihood of conflict. However, there are cross-cutting effects by commodity type. In line with theory, we find price increases for labor-intensive agricultural commodities reduce conflict, while increases in the price of oil, a capital-intensive commodity, provoke conflict. We also find that price increases for lootable artisanal minerals provoke conflict. Our meta-analysis consolidates existing evidence, but also highlights opportunities for future research.
Topic:
Agriculture, Oil, Natural Resources, Commodities, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

40. Algeria-Morocco Business Dialogue: The Agricultural and Food Manufacturing Sector

Author:
Charles Elkins
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
On January 20-21, 2020, the EastWest Institute (EWI) held its first meeting in Berlin as part of its new Algeria-Morocco Business Dialogue, an initiative aiming to address the impediments to greater cross-border trade. By convening sector-specific meetings between local business people from both countries, the project aims to produce a concrete set of feasible recommendations to encourage greater bilateral trade. The inaugural January meeting brought together small to medium-sized business leaders from the agricultural sector to consider boosting greater trade on a micro level, as well as discuss the shortcomings and challenges of each countries’ agricultural and trade policy.
Topic:
Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa, Algeria, and Morocco