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1841. Aceh: Why The Military Option Still Won't Work

Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In June 2001, ICG wrote of the situation in Aceh: “The military solution is certain to fail as long as the security forces are incapable of exercising the degree of control and discipline over their troops necessary to prevent behaviour that alienates ordinary Acehnese”.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

1842. Colombia and its Neighbours: The Tentacles of Instability

Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
While the Colombian armed conflict has deep roots in history, increasingly it is fuelled by the inflow of weapons, explosives and chemical precursors and financed by an outflow of drugs. The tentacles of instability criss-cross the 9000 kilometres of land and water that separate Colombia from and link it to its five neighbours, Ecuador, Peru, Brazil, Venezuela and Panama. Those borders are largely uncontrolled, and the Colombian government has stepped up its demands for fuller regional cooperation. The neighbours are greatly reluctant, partly because of internal crises and partly because of their view of the conflict. Yet, Colombia needs more help from them to make progress in ending that conflict, while peace in Colombia would give them a better chance to solve their own serious domestic problems.
Topic:
Security and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Brazil, Colombia, South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

1843. Red Alert In Jordan: Recurrent Unrest In Maan

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In successive incidents over eight days in November 2002, the city of Maan in the south of Jordan was the scene of intense armed clashes between security forces and elements of the Maani population. What began as a routine police operation rapidly escalated into incidents in which thousands of police, soldiers, and special forces fought militants in and around the town before subduing them. The clashes left six dead, many more wounded, over 150 arrested for questioning or prosecution, and property destroyed. As of early February 2003, over 45 people remained in custody and several others were still being sought.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, and Government
Political Geography:
Arabia and Jordan

1844. Dealing with Savimbi's Ghost: The Security and Humanitarian Challenges in Angola

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Emerging slowly from decades of civil war, Angola stands at a crossroads between a spectacular recovery or further cycles of instability and crisis. The government that won the fighting must now move on a number of fronts – with international support – to win the peace.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Human Welfare, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa and Angola

1845. Yemen: Coping with Terrorism and Violence in a Fragile State

Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 3 November 2002, an unmanned U.S. “Predator” aircraft hovering in the skies of Yemen fired a Hellfire missile at a car carrying a suspected al- Qaeda leader, four Yemenis said to be members of the Aden-Abyan Islamic Army, and a Yemeni- American who, according to U.S. authorities, had recruited volunteers to attend al-Qaeda training camps. All six occupants were killed. Almost two months later, three American missionaries were shot and killed in the Yemeni city of Jibla. These incidents, only the latest in a series involving Yemen, reinforced its image as a weak and lawless state with porous borders, a sanctuary for al-Qaeda operatives, a country with tenuous government control over vast parts of its territory and dominated by a culture of kidnappings and endemic violence. The October 2000 attack on the USS Cole, the arrest earlier in 2002 of several Yemenis in the United States and Pakistan suspected of membership in the al-Qaeda network, the capture of Ramzi bin al-Shibah, a Yemeni citizen accused of being a key plotter of the 11 September 2001 attacks in the U.S., and the attack on the French oil tanker Limburg in October 2002 have all contributed to this perception. Indeed, during the past year, the U.S. has sent special forces to Yemen and neighbouring countries, with the purpose of pursuing presumed members of the al-Qaeda network and associated organisations in Yemen.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, Yemen, and Arabia

1846. Potential and Limits of the Pact of Stability for South East Europe: Prioritising Objectives

Author:
Plamen Pantev
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
The Pact of Stability for South East Europe was “born” after the end of the Kosovo crisis in 1999 as a concept of dealing radically with the Balkan instabilities, but also as a geopolitical compromise of the great power centres, involved in the treatment of the post-Yugoslav conflicts. The ripeness of launching this concept and policy had several dimensions: Most of the countries from South East Europe, especially those in transition to democracy and market economy, had a definite strategy of integrating in both the European Union and in NATO; A certain level of regional cooperation had already been reached in the years that preceded the Kosovo crisis in 1999; Influential external powers had already realised that the Balkans need to be treated in the long-term only in a benign way to overcome historical deficiencies and belated modernisation of the economy, society, politics, technology and infrastructure; The disgusting consequences of four post-Yugoslav wars – a development that did not happen to two other former federal structures in Central and Eastern Europe (the Czechoslovak and the Soviet) necessitated a comprehensive and encompassing approach to deal with the plethora of issues in the Balkans, and the EU gradually evolved to the understanding that an additional strategic instrument needs to be launched to cope with the risks and instabilities in the region of South East Europe on the way of its own expansion and of turning the Balkan Peninsula into an integral part of the Union.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Development, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

1847. What is the Outcome of the Stability Pact So Far?

Author:
Sabri Ergen
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
Let me start my words by quoting from a Security Sector Reform inventory (a gaps analysis paper) that just became available. It encompasses the target states of the Stability Pact. We commissioned this analysis from York University in Canada at the end of last year. We hope to release the project before the end of this year. The inventory is a living document to be updated as required and it contains over 400 entries. It is the largest database that exists in terms of security sector reform-related activities in the region.
Topic:
Security and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Canada, and Eastern Europe

1848. Free Movement of People, Goods, Services and Capital in View of the Context of Stability Pact

Author:
Mladen Stanicic
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
The Stability Pact is a strategic concept whose aim is to warrant long- term peace and stability in South-Eastern Europe. It is becoming an indispensable element of the global security structure which is currently being constructed in relations between the big powers, the USA, Russia and China, with the active participation of the United Nations, the European Union, international financial institutions and individual countries. As one of the sponsors of the pact, the European Union is keenly interested in stability and peace among its next-door neighbours, some of whom are covered by the pending eastern enlargement. This enlargement is intended to transcend centuries of civilisational and religious divisions in Europe, the causes of many political and armed conflicts in the past. The vision of Europe in the 21st century, reaching all the way to the borders of the former Soviet Union, is that of a multicultural community encompassing states with diverse civilisational, religious, ethnic and cultural characteristics.
Topic:
Security, Globalization, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, and Eastern Europe

1849. Regional Approach - An Obstacle or an Opportunity for an Early Integration of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia Into the European Structures

Author:
Vladimir Bilandzic
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
I would have to start this presentation with a disclaimer. When I was kindly invited to give a perspective from Serbia on the issue we are discussing at this seminar, I told the organisers that my contribution could not be regarded as a representative one, since I work for an international organisation - the OSCE - in Belgrade. At the same time, I cannot claim that my views represent the views of the organisation I work for. So, what I am going to say are my personal views, based of course on my experience and research on Southeast European politics, especially in the countries of former Yugoslavia. Therefore, while apologising for not being in a position to give a more authoritative presentation, I will try to give a meaningful contribution on the subject, especially from a perspective of someone coming from Belgrade.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Yugoslavia

1850. Regional Integration through the Stability Pact

Author:
Frederic Labarre
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
This paper attempts to argue that the current structure of relations in South East Europe (SEE) and in the Balkans in particular requires regional, or local, integration before any membership in greater bodies (like the European Union) can be considered.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Balkans

1851. The Solution of the Albanian Question As A Precondition for the Fruitful Cooperation in the Balkans

Author:
Enver Hasani
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
The Stability Pact was launched on the eve of the Kosova war and conflict Paradoxically, though, Kosova has so far benefited the lest from it. Only very recently Kosova managed to have its own representative in it. This is a sign that the same mistakes are being made vis-à-vis Kosova as in the past, seeing the region as a bogus or maverick part of the far South-East of Europe.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Balkans

1852. The Role of the Media in the Regional Co-Operation

Author:
Drago Pilsel
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
The Role of the media in the Regional Co-operation in SEE is one of the crucial aspects of the Stability Pact for South East Europe, especially in the Democratisation and Human Rights Task Force. Without democratic institutions that work effectively and the democratic development of a state under the rule of law there can be no long-term economic development and prosperity. Equally, democratisation and non-discrimination are also fundamental preconditions for guaranteeing internal and external security. Democracy and Human Rights: Deep-rooted democratic habits and a vibrant civil society constitute the foundation upon which the achievement of the objectives of the Pact can be built.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Human Rights, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe

1853. Minorities in the Context of Forced Displacement in the South East European Region

Author:
Udo Janz
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
The UN Special Rapporteur for the Sub-Commission on the Prevention of Discrimination and Protection of Minorities, F. Capotori, offered a formulation of a definition of minorities in 1979: a minority must be a "non-dominant" group; its members must possess "ethnic, religious or linguistic characteristics differing from those of the rest of the population", and they must also show, if only implicitly, a sense of solidarity, directed towards preserving their culture, traditions, religion or language".
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Population
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and United Nations

1854. Multiethnic State, Ethnically Homogenous State and the Future of the Nation-State in the Balkans

Author:
Plamen Pantev
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
Approaching and testing the capacity and effectiveness of the nation-states in the Balkans is a long-term research necessity for many reasons: First, despite the tendency of making the state boundaries less and less significant in the era of new information technology, global economy and new communications capabilities the nation-state will remain the key organisational unit of the international system and the features of national sovereignty will continue to dominate and influence the management toolbox of international relations and domestic politics. Hence, any form and nuance of the nation-state in the Balkans will have a decisive meaning for dealing with the political and security agenda of the region.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Globalization
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Balkans

1855. The Kashmiri Conflict: Historical and Prospective Intervention Analyses

Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
In late March 2003, terrorists thought to be members of Pakistan-supported Islamic groups killed 24 Hindu villagers in Kashmir. This incident evoked memories of the suicide attack by Muslim terrorists on the Indian Parliament in New Delhi in December 2001. Events like these raise the potential threat of war between India and Pakistan. South Asia is thought by many observers to be the most dangerous place in the world, with both antagonists armed with nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

1856. Evolution of U.S. Policy on Small Arms

Author:
Victoria Garcia
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
The following is a compilation of speeches, official documents, and policy notes by U.S. government officials on small arms from 1995-2003. This summary is intended to be a survey of the evolution of U.S. governmental policy, in order to give a broad history, as well as insight, into the U.S. position on the small arms issue in future international fora.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
United States

1857. Stand-off with North Korea: War Scenarios and Consequences

Author:
Colin Robinson and Stephen H. Baker
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
North Korea's military threat and somewhat peculiar approaches to international relations have been a central difficulty in dealing with the isolated regime during the past decade. In the early 1990s, North Korea, formally known as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), was expected by many observers to collapse, just as communist regimes in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union did.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Asia, North Korea, and Soviet Union

1858. A First-hand Report: Cuban Biotechnology

Author:
Glenn Baker
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
John Bolton, U.S. undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, triggered a furor when on May 6, 2002, he stated, “The United States believes that Cuba has at least a limited offensive biological warfare research and development effort.” Two days later, I was meeting with a representative from the Cuban Interests Section on an unrelated matter when I posed the question, “How would Cuba respond if CDI asked to bring a group of experts down to learn more about these charges?” I had no expectations of hearing any more about it. But less than two weeks later, I was told that not only was there an interest, but that we were invited to bring anyone, come anytime, and visit anywhere we wanted. Clearly, Bolton's comments had struck a nerve in Havana.
Topic:
Security, Human Welfare, Science and Technology, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Caribbean, and Havana

1859. Coercion and Risk-Taking in Nuclear South Asia

Author:
Verghese Koithara
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
The partition-bred conflict between India and Pakistan that began in 1947 went into remission in 1971 following India's emphatic victory in war that year. It reemerged in 1989 when serious disaffection in the Kashmir Valley gave Pakistan an opening to promote militancy. This created a dangerous situation because it was about the same time that both Pakistan and India also acquired nuclear weapons. There was a major confrontation between the two countries during March-May 1990. Since then there has been continuous tension with each attempting to coerce the other. In May 1998 both countries carried out several nuclear tests each. A year later, during May-July 1999, the two fought a two-month "limited war" in the Kargil region of Kashmir that caused over 1,200 fatalities. Kargil was a clear effort on Pakistan's part to test the deterrence value of its nuclear weapons. In December 2001 India resorted to an unprecedented military mobilization (Operation Parakram), holding out the clear threat of attacking Pakistan unless the latter stopped its sub-conventional operations.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and India

1860. Effectiveness of Nuclear Weapons against Buried Biological Agents

Author:
Michael May and Zachary Haldeman
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
This report describes the results of some calculations on the effectiveness of penetrating nuclear weapons of yield 1 and 10 kilotons against targets containing biological agents. The effectiveness depends in detail on the construction of the bunkers, on how the bio-agents are stored, on the location of the explosions with respect to the bunkers, the bio-agent containers and the surface of the ground, and on the yield of the explosion and the geology of the explosion site. Completeness of sterilization of the bio-agents is crucial in determining effectiveness. For most likely cases, however, complete sterilization cannot be guaranteed. Better calculations and experiments on specific target types would improve the accuracy of such predictions for those targets, but significant uncertainties regarding actual geology, actual target layouts, and knowledge of the position of the explosion with respect to the target would remain. Aboveground effects of the nuclear explosions, all of which would vent to the surface, are estimated. They include intense local radioactivity and significant fallout, air blast, and seismic effects to kilometers distances. It is likely, however, that casualties from those effects would be less than the casualties that would result from the dispersal of large quantities of bio-agents.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States