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1221. Azerbaijani Gas Export to Europe: What Advantages Are There?

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Following Russia's decision to restrict natural gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria, energy security has become a priority in the European Union. Although the ancient continent is trying to increase gas imports from alternative sources, Gazprom is still trying to maintain its dominance in Europe for some time. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan continues to increase natural gas production. In the first quarter of this year, Azerbaijan produced 11.8 billion cubic meters of natural gas. 3.5 billion cubic meters of gas were produced from ACG, 6.4 billion cubic meters from Shah Deniz, and 1.9 billion cubic meters from SOCAR. During that period, gas exports amounted to 5.9 billion cubic meters. 2.2 billion cubic meters of gas were exported to Turkey, 2.6 billion cubic meters to Europe, and 1.1 billion cubic meters to Georgia. More than 4 billion cubic meters of gas were transported to Turkey via TANAP during this period.
Topic:
European Union, Gas, Exports, Russia-Ukraine War, and Energy Sector
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Poland, Azerbaijan, and Bulgaria

1222. The economic impact of COVID-19 on Turkish-Azeri bilateral relations

Author:
Duncan Labadie
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
While the economic instability of the international system resurrected debates about the future of the World Order, diving against the current and studying in a destabilizing pandemic context a bilateralism touted for its durability and solidity seemed academically attractive. Thus, the purpose of this research paper is to verify whether COVID-19 is causing fatal economic disruptions among the iron alliances, or if on the contrary one is witnessing an "unnatural" strengthening. By reconciling empirical data (reports of the Central Bank, the OSCE, press articles) and academic papers, this study analyzes the surprising Turkish-Azeri economic consolidation before questioning its still-perceptible limitsin the short and long term. This work concludes that through the neorealist prism, Ankara and Baku managed to transform Covidian negativity into an element of strategic economic cooperation aimed at repairing financial loopholes on a national scale.
Topic:
Economics, War, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, COVID-19, Liberalization, and Asymmetric Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey and Azerbaijan

1223. FDI in Azerbaijan in 2021: Developments and Challenges

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Attracting foreign direct investment is now more important for Azerbaijan than ever before. Against the background of global uncertainty, the development of the non-oil sector and the diversification of the economy have become even more priority. On the other hand, there has been a decline in oil production in recent years, and even though high oil prices, the country's revenue from energy sales is lower than compared to the period before 2014.
Topic:
Oil, Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, and Diversification
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan

1224. Potential Impacts of Sanctions against Russia on the Non-oil Exports of Azerbaijan

Author:
Eldayag Mustafayev
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
By using statistical descriptive analysis, this article analyzes how the isolation of Russia from the international trade and finance system, as a result of the Western sanctions, will affect the Russian trade turnover and what type of future challenges and opportunities it may provide for the non-oil export base of Azerbaijan. In terms of the opportunities, Azerbaijan can further focus on its main non-oil export goods such as agricultural and chemical industrial products to capture an additional share in the semi-abandoned Russian market, along with considering possible competition pressure coming from the other non-western Russian trade partners. Re-exporting opportunities currently are limited in scale and have a risk of facing international sanctions and criticism.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Exports, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Azerbaijan

1225. How Will Coal Sanctions Impact on Russian Economy?

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The Western Alliance has approved a new package of sanctions against Russia. The most notable of the sanctions is the suspension of coal exports from Russia. What does this mean for Russia, and how can the European Union compensate for this ban? Yesterday, the European Commission posted a decision on sanctions on its website, which means that the ban will come into force. This means that from today, European companies will not be able to conclude contracts to buy coal from Russia. The contracts signed in the previous period must be completed by August.
Topic:
Sanctions, European Union, Economy, Exports, Coal, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

1226. The Future Offers of the Second Trilateral Meeting in Brussels for the Region

Author:
Emin Mammadov
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
For a continuation of the discussion on the situation in South Caucasus and deepening cooperation between the EU and both countries, on April 6 President of the European Council Charles Michel held a meeting with the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan where EU’s commitment in overcoming tension and the peace-building process was further expressed. The EU reiterated the necessity to adhere to the provisions of 09/10 November 2020 trilateral statement.
Topic:
Diplomacy, European Union, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
South Caucasus and Brussels

1227. How New Export Control Will Affect Food Security in Azerbaijan?

Author:
Emin Mammadov
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The ongoing climate change and recent geopolitical tensions could spark a global food crisis with simultaneous disruptions to supply-chain systems that drive up the economic shock waves throughout the world. Following the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the upsurge in the price of agricultural commodities and broken supply chains are undeniably vivid. Both countries are exporters of vital commodities such as wheat, oil, corn, sunflower oil and corn, and disturbances to production affect the import-reliant countries.
Topic:
Climate Change, Food Security, Geopolitics, Exports, Supply Chains, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan

1228. Reducing European Dependence on Russian Gas: Challenges and New Alternatives

Author:
Nigar Islamli
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The Russia-Ukraine war has revealed energy reliance between the European Union and Russia as an issue. In addition to the dependence of the European Union (EU) on Russia, particularly in the sphere of energy, it did not alleviate but rather aggravated, Europe's and Russia's security worries about each other. All happenings raise this question: Can the European Union eliminate its dependence on Russian gas? Is it possible? If possible, for how long can this dependence be eliminated?
Topic:
European Union, Gas, Energy Dependence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

1229. The Economic Consequences of Russia-Ukraine War for Azerbaijan

Author:
Emin Mammadov
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The past three decades of independence demonstrate that Russia remains a strategically economic and political partner, and multidirectional relations between two parties historically were of crucial importance. In the year 2021, total trade turnover between Russia and Azerbaijan accounted for 2.295 bln USD with a 12% upsurge recovering to pre-pandemic levels. Russia ranked as the 3hd largest trade partner of Azerbaijan in 2021 following Italy and Turkey and the share of trade with Russia alone made up 8.83% of the total in this period.
Topic:
Politics, Economy, Trade, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Azerbaijan

1230. The Economic Consequences of Russia-Ukraine War for Azerbaijan

Author:
Emin Mammadov
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The year 2020 posed an unprecedented challenge to the World economy with the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic shrinking the global GDP by 6,7 % and bringing worldwide severe economic repercussions. Economic recovery is in continuation process in which the non-hydrocarbon sector acts as the main driver with a strong contribution of the oil and gas sector as well coupled with the rising demand for, and price of, oil that can further strengthen overall economic performance, however risks in the scenario are vivid.
Topic:
Economy, Risk, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan