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22. How New Export Control Will Affect Food Security in Azerbaijan?
- Author:
- Emin Mammadov
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- The ongoing climate change and recent geopolitical tensions could spark a global food crisis with simultaneous disruptions to supply-chain systems that drive up the economic shock waves throughout the world. Following the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the upsurge in the price of agricultural commodities and broken supply chains are undeniably vivid. Both countries are exporters of vital commodities such as wheat, oil, corn, sunflower oil and corn, and disturbances to production affect the import-reliant countries.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Food Security, Geopolitics, Exports, Supply Chains, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Azerbaijan
23. Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam. The Law, History, Politics and Geopolitics behind Africa’s Largest Hydropower Project
- Author:
- Francesca Caruso
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Since 2011, the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has provoked a diplomatic crisis between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan, adding fuel to the already combustible geopolitics of the Horn of Africa. Despite its technical aspects, the GERD dispute has over time become a multi-layered geopolitical crisis where a plethora of actors and dynamics have been influencing the ongoing negotiations. Protagonists are no longer only Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan, and the resolution of the crisis is now dependent on factors beyond technical solutions. Moreover, the crisis seems to have become an instrument that the three countries are using to deal with issues of national legitimacy, territorial disputes and regional balance. However, while instrumentalisation can be politically expedient in the short term, all parties have an interest an equitable and regionally based, inclusive and cooperative agreement. In order to understand how multilateral organisations can contribute to the finding of an equitable and reasonable solution, a multi-layered analysis – on local, national and regional dynamics – needs to identify the main drivers for Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, History, Water, Infrastructure, Law, Geopolitics, Dams, Conflict Management, and Hydropower
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, and Egypt
24. Russia’s Climate Action and Geopolitics of Energy Transition: The Uncertain and Unsettling Outlook following Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
- Author:
- Kamila Godzinska and Maria Pastukhova
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has profoundly altered the outlook for Russia’s energy transition and created uncertainties on the global path towards net zero. In response to global economic shifts, Russia had begun taking steps towards decarbonisation, albeit without plans to depart from its hydrocarbon-based economic model in any substantial way. The new political, trade and financial environment induced by Russia’s act of aggression has damaged its potential to maintain the once-emerging momentum. Russia’s actions and the Western response are also reconfiguring global energy relations, with profound economic and geopolitical consequences that may, unless managed, undermine international cooperation on the energy transition and slow down progress on climate change mitigation.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Sanctions, Geopolitics, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Eastern Europe, and Balkans
25. The Geopolitics of Clean Hydrogen – Opportunities and Challenges for Italy
- Author:
- Marco Giuli
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The emergence of clean hydrogen as an energy carrier promises to shape the future geography of the energy trade. Under growing contestation of interdependence, such a geography should be read through political lenses alongside commercial and technological ones. Generally, hydrogen is likely to reduce the geopolitical sensitivity of energy trade with respect to a fossil-fuel-based energy order by increasing the share of energy produced domestically, shifting geostrategic competition from a focus on grabbing resources to a focus on mastering technology and setting standards, and offering petrostates opportunities for economic diversification. Italy can exploit the opportunities offered by a hydrogen economy for enhancing its energy security and positioning in the regional energy trade. However, it should be careful with monitoring how geopolitical barriers such as regional instability may affect its hydrogen ambitions.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Trade, Hydrogen, Pipeline, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Italy
26. A Scramble for Gas: Qatari LNG and EU Diversification Plans
- Author:
- Pier Paolo Raimondi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Amidst a worsening geopolitical and energy crisis in Europe, the EU is scrambling to increase liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports as one component of its larger objective to reduce its overdependence on Russian gas. In 2021, the EU imported 155 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas from Russia (140 bcm via pipeline and 15 bcm of LNG). Under its REPowerEU initiative, the European Commission aims to increase LNG imports to replace 50 bcm of Russian gas by the end of 2022.
- Topic:
- European Union, Geopolitics, Gas, Diversification, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Qatar
27. Reckless Abandon: Why Tunisia Can No Longer Delay a Border Free Trade Zone
- Author:
- Hamza Meddeb
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- In 2012, Tunisia announced the establishment of a free trade and logistics zone (FTZ) in Ben Guerdane, near the Libyan border. The aim is to develop marginalized southeastern border regions and formalize informal economic actors. However, the plan has stalled due to institutional resistance, political divisions, and an incapacity to exploit international geopolitical rivalries. If this persists, the project may become irrelevant because of emerging FTZs in Libya, denying Tunisia revenues its ailing economy needs.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Economy, Borders, and Free Trade
- Political Geography:
- Libya, North Africa, and Tunisia
28. Russia and India: A New Chapter
- Author:
- Rajan Menon and Eugene Rumer
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Russian-Indian relations are undergoing a major change. Throughout the Cold War, the relationship rested on three pillars: Soviet arms sales to India; shared public-sector-heavy economic philosophy and extensive Soviet aid; and the Soviet Union–India vs. United States–Pakistan–China geopolitical alignment. The fall of the Soviet Union, the rise of India and China, the U.S.-China tensions, the deepening of U.S.-India ties, and the Russian-Chinese partnership intensified by Russia’s break with the West and the war against Ukraine have had a profound effect on Russian-Indian relations. Of the three pillars of the Moscow–New Delhi relationship, only one remains: the arms trade. Russia remains a major supplier of weapons to India, and Russian equipment still makes up a vast portion of Indian Armed Forces’ force structure; but Russia is facing competition in the Indian arms market. India’s desire to diversify its supply of weapons and develop its own defense industry has resulted in declining Russian arms deliveries to India in recent years. Russia’s break with the West because of its war against Ukraine has accelerated its pivot toward China. Against the backdrop of U.S.-China and China-India tensions, Russia’s position as China’s junior partner will make it harder for Russia to preserve partnership with India. Moscow’s leverage versus both New Delhi and Beijing is shrinking as they have greater capabilities of their own than they had previously and have new partners that offer more than Russia. Still, the Russian-Indian partnership will continue. For India, Russia remains an important supplier of weapons and, most recently, oil. India has not joined the West’s sanctions on Russia. By doing so, it has demonstrated its independent foreign policy. For Russia, India is an important market for arms and oil. The Indian-U.S. security relationship is relatively new, whereas India-Russia ties have endured for over two generations. India has no reason to forsake the benefits of this relationship. Nor does Russia. It has been said that Moscow plays a weak hand well, but sustaining strong security ties with both China and India will become more difficult for it. The question is how China will react to Russian arms sales to India, and what Russia will do if pressed by China to curtail them. For reasons of geographic proximity, economic ties, and personal relations between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, the odds favor Beijing over New Delhi to have a bigger say in Moscow.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Cold War, History, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, South Asia, Eurasia, Ukraine, India, and United States of America
29. Green energy depends on critical minerals. Who controls the supply chains?
- Author:
- Luc Leruth, Adnan Mazarei, Pierre Régibeau, and Luc Renneboog
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In light of the transition away from fossil fuel–based energy, this paper highlights the importance of understanding who controls vital parts of the global supply chains of critical minerals and rare earth elements (REEs). Analysis of direct ownership does not reveal the real sources of control over the decisions of the company. To identify those sources, the authors use an index that measures the degree to which important shareholders can affect voting decisions. This analysis is not straightforward, because companies along the supply chain are not necessarily incorporated in the countries in which mining and production activities take place, and shareholders can exert influence through multiple layers of subsidiaries. The analysis reveals that China’s control over the global value chains involving critical minerals and REEs extends beyond what is commonly assumed. It also sheds light on environmental, social, and governance issues in the countries in which mining and/or production take place. The paper advocates increasing transparency regarding the sources of control to better assess and manage economic and geopolitical risks; enhancing recycling, to reduce dependency on foreign supply; avoiding protectionist and trade-reducing reactions; and encouraging research and development in order to speed up the adoption of technologies of substitution.
- Topic:
- Economics, Geopolitics, Supply Chains, Minerals, Energy, and Green Transition
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
30. Will economic statecraft threaten western currency dominance? Sanctions, geopolitics, and the global monetary order
- Author:
- Carla Norrlof
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The return of great power rivalry is stoking renewed fears of weakening Western currency dominance. Financial sanctions are becoming the preferred economic tool for accomplishing geopolitical goals. These instruments are especially popular with the United States and Europe. In response, rival great powers, notably China and Russia, are diversifying away from Western currencies and developing counterstrategies to maintain economic and foreign policy autonomy. As other countries are hit by increasingly punishing Western sanctions, the incentive to join Russia and China’s alternative international monetary order increases. New analysis, published in this report, shows early signs that some countries may be trying to diversify away from the dollar. A growing circle of countries attempting to evade the Western-centric financial and currency order may over time erode the dollar and the euro’s sizeable lead, though will likely fall well short of ending their global dominance. This report analyzes these trends and quantifies the extent of reserve diversification following Russia’s 2022 war on Ukraine. It also assesses the polarity of the international currency order since the onset of the euro in 2002. Reserve diversification out of the dollar, and into the euro, has been modest, though Chinese renminbi reserves grew after Russia’s February offensive in Ukraine. Dollar unipolarity declined acutely in 2017 as the number of countries sanctioned by the United States increased and the US President Donald J. Trump threatened to revoke alliance commitments. Using economic statecraft while retaining global economic influence will require the United States to keep its economic house in order and allies close, if the current unipolar currency order is to survive.
- Topic:
- Economics, Monetary Policy, Sanctions, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia