Content Type: Working Paper / Publication Year: within 10 Years and within 5 Years / Topic: Natural Resources

1. Small-scale LNG in the Euro-Mediterranean: A Contribution to the Decarbonisation of the Maritime Sector

Author:: Pier Paolo Raimondi
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: While governments have reaffirmed their commitment towards energy transition in light of the current energy crisis, the urgency to act implies to use all possible solutions to reduce CO2 emissions during the transitional period. Natural gas can play a role in the decarbonisation of certain sectors, such as the transport sector. In this sense, the small-scale LNG industry could contribute to the decarbonisation of the Mediterranean region. Regulatory and political incentives as well as socioeconomic and environmental benefits could represent critical drivers for the growing role of the small-scale liquefied natural gas (SSLNG), while it will need to overcome several challenges (e.g. political pressure, economic and infrastructure constraints).
Topic:: Climate Change, Natural Resources, European Union, Gas, Decarbonization, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe and Mediterranean

2. Fiscal dependence on extractive revenues: Measurement and concepts

Author:: Kyle McNabb
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The aims of this paper are twofold. It firstly identifies and discusses the extent to which public revenues from natural resources are adequately captured in existing cross-country revenue databases, before exploring the extent to which such data can be used to estimate countries’ fiscal dependence on extractives. I first discuss key conceptual, definitional and measurement issues, before comparing the coverage of key existing databases, notably the UNU-WIDER Government Revenue Dataset (GRD). I then propose a new measure of fiscal dependence on extractive revenues (FDE). Whilst a number of existing studies have attempted to better quantify countries’ resource dependence, to the best of my knowledge none has yet proposed an indicator that ties the idea of dependence to any outcomes. The FDE simply calculates the extent to which extractive-producing countries can fund day-to-day government spending with non-extractive revenues. I find that the FDE is strongly correlated with existing measures of extractive dependence but can ultimately tell us more about countries’ fiscal positions and resulting vulnerability to shocks to revenue or government spending.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Tax Systems, Extractive Industries, and Economic Dependence
Political Geography:: Africa, South Asia, and India

3. Redressing environmental harm? A 'corporate sovereignty' problem

Author:: Stefano Porfido
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:: The transition towards a low-carbon economy is an epoch-defining goal. However, this transition develops following traditional patterns of business that are intrinsically environmentally harmful as they rest upon profit-oriented strategies of commodifying natural resources. By taking the anthropological notion of "corporate sovereignty", this contribution discusses the unsustainability of private corporates' property a-like structures of power over natural resources and frames them within forms of economic governmentality. The paper concludes by stressing the need for a cultural change to occur to back the transition towards a novel model of sustainable business, i.e. of "business within the Heart's limits".
Topic:: Environment, Sovereignty, Natural Resources, Carbon Emissions, and Corporations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4. Inclusion and exclusion in Somali drought emergency assistance

Author:: Ahmed Musa
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: When drought or other emergencies strike in the Somali regions, the first responders are Somalis themselves, not the international humanitarian system. Based on family, kinship and more distant social ties, Somalis mobilise and deliver various forms of emergency assistance to the affected communities. Yet, mechanisms of inclusion and exclusion vary significantly, pending on the closeness of social ties, the power relations between local and international actors, and the number and forms of intermediaries. In this new DIIS Working Paper, Ahmed M. Musa, examines such local and transnational humanitarian practices and the mechanisms of inclusion and inclusion that they entail. Focusing on instances of drought in Somaliland, Musa argues that emergency assistance based on close social ties observes the overall humanitarian principle of impartiality. There are challenges, however, particularly when the social ties are more distant, as in the case of government-led or international responses. This may be mitigated, Musa shows, by the social contract of reciprocity between givers and recipients of assistance, going hand in hand with social sanctions where people abstain from helping those in need. Familiarity is thus central for impartial and inclusive access to emergency assistance, rather than an obstacle. The paper is an output from the Diaspora Humanitarianism in Complex Crises (D-Hum) research project in which Musa was a postdoc between 2020 and 2022. D-Hum analyses how Somali diaspora actors and their local counterparts mobilise, channel and deliver humanitarian assistance to Somalia and Somaliland during complex humanitarian crises. The project is funded by the Danish Consultative Research Committee for Development Research (FFU). Share on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on LinkedInSend link to page with mailPrint page
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Environment, Migration, Poverty, Natural Resources, Inequality, Conflict, Borders, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

5. Capital Flight from Natural Resource-Dependent African Countries: Updated Estimates and Analysis for the Cases of Cameroon, Ghana, and Zambia, 1970-2021

Author:: Léonce Ndikumana
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper is part of a project that investigates domestic and global drivers and enablers of capital flight from Cameroon, Ghana, and Zambia, three countries that are significantly endowed in natural resources. It presents estimates of capital flight from these three countries and discusses the key drivers of the phenomenon. The results show that as of 2021, estimated total capital flight stood at $71.1 billion for Cameroon, $50 billion for Ghana, and $71.5 billion for Zambia. External borrowing and, in the cases of Zambia and Cameroon, trade misinvoicing, are key correlates of capital flight. While external borrowing directly and indirectly drives capital flight, trade misinvoicing constitutes an important mechanism of unrecorded cross-border capital flows. This study contributes to the efforts to uncover the mechanisms and enablers of capital flight from Africa, with the aim of shedding light on possible strategies to curb further capital outflows in the context of efforts to scale up and diversify development financing to support recovery from global crises, the transition to green growth, and sustainable development in Africa.
Topic:: Development, Political Economy, Natural Resources, Capital Flight, and Trade
Political Geography:: Africa, Zambia, Ghana, and Cameroon

6. Local community views on Marine Protected Areas on Greek islands

Author:: Lydia Avrami, Nicolas Demertzis, Antonis Armenakis, and Dmitra Syrou
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are usually designated in areas with intense human activity. An MPA is therefore a complex socioeconomic system whose success and/or failure, and ability to deliver environmental, social and economic benefits, depend on local communities and their sensitivities. This paper examines how recently designated MPAs on three islands in the Cyclades group (Kythnos, Milos and Santorini), with differently structured local economies and levels of touristic development, are perceived by their local communities. Data are drawn from a phone survey of local residents, and the results show that the awareness, attitudes and perceptions of the local groups differ significantly depending on the area and their stake in the MPA. How much local communities know about the MPA regulatory framework and its location, past experiences and socioeconomic factors are deemed good predictors for the local communities’ behaviors towards the MPAs. The positive interplay between the operation of an MPA and the development of scuba diving is also acknowledged, although the perceived trade-off between marine protection and fishers’ revenue remains the main challenge facing MPA implementation. The paper’s findings highlight the urgent need to deal with the information and knowledge deficit, and to bridge the gap between the perceptions and expectations of local communities and the MPAs’ actual output. Applying a participatory approach to MPA decision-making and operation would build capacity for effective implementation. Thus, the delimitation of the protection zones within the MPAs, and the provision of specific constraints, should be based on both ecological and socioeconomic criteria.
Topic:: Environment, Natural Resources, Public Opinion, Regulation, and Ecology
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

7. America, You Better Believe That Africa Matters

Author:: Charles Ray
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: In the minds of most Americans and Europeans, the continent of Africa has long been seen as peripheral to world affairs, looked at either as a source of natural resources ripe for extraction or a place of poverty and violence requiring massive amounts of aid. This is a shortsighted and distorted view of a diverse continent and is long overdue for a reset. The truth is that Africa is home to some of the planet’s most strategic minerals and other resources, and that natural and manmade disasters plague the continent. It is far more diverse and dynamic than popular culture, mainstream media, and even many foreign policy makers portray it. For a lot of reasons, some of them existential, it is far from peripheral; it matters.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: Africa and United States of America

8. Egypt’s Decade of Water Woes

Author:: Hafsa Halawa
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: As the Nile River dispute between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan enters a new decade, this paper seeks to map out the Egyptian perspective of the dispute, through an outline of the interventions made, opportunities lost, and challenges posed by the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Looking at Egypt’s domestic water security challenges, regional relationships and the tripartite process, and the role and influence of external actors, the paper describes a decade of diplomatic stagnation as entrenched nationalism creates forms of immovable policy on the River Nile.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Natural Resources, Water, Dams, and Disputes
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt

9. The GERD from an Ethiopian Perspective: Actors, Interests and Instruments

Author:: Jesutimilehin O. Akamo
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: For Ethiopia, proposals on sharing the Nile waters and the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) must demonstrate flexibility (that is, be legally non-binding) and distance from the order that existed before the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA, or Entebbe Agreement). The GERD represents a move by Ethiopia to enhance economic security, boost its resilience against drought and consolidate its newfound hydro-political influence towards ensuring equitable and reasonable use of the Nile waters by riparian states. Ethiopia has demonstrated intentionality and consistency in its Nile policy under which the GERD falls. The link between the GERD, Ethiopia’s internal crisis and its perception of an international bias tend to threaten the likelihood of a mutually agreed deal. However, building mutual trust, strategic concessions and de-internationalising the GERD talks to the barest minimum are necessary steps to break the stalemate.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Water, Dams, Drought, and Hydropower
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt

10. The Environmental Consequences of Inequality

Author:: James K. Boyce
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Inequality has important consequences for the extent of pollution and natural resource depletion as well as for the distribution of the costs and benefits from environmental degradation. Inequalities in the distribution of purchasing power operate through the market, and inequalities in the distribution of political power operate through governance institutions, often with mutually reinforcing effects.
Topic:: Environment, Political Economy, Natural Resources, Inequality, Justice, and Pollution
Political Geography:: Global Focus

11. The economic impact of COVID-19 on Turkish-Azeri bilateral relations

Author:: Duncan Labadie
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: While the economic instability of the international system resurrected debates about the future of the World Order, diving against the current and studying in a destabilizing pandemic context a bilateralism touted for its durability and solidity seemed academically attractive. Thus, the purpose of this research paper is to verify whether COVID-19 is causing fatal economic disruptions among the iron alliances, or if on the contrary one is witnessing an "unnatural" strengthening. By reconciling empirical data (reports of the Central Bank, the OSCE, press articles) and academic papers, this study analyzes the surprising Turkish-Azeri economic consolidation before questioning its still-perceptible limitsin the short and long term. This work concludes that through the neorealist prism, Ankara and Baku managed to transform Covidian negativity into an element of strategic economic cooperation aimed at repairing financial loopholes on a national scale.
Topic:: Economics, War, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, COVID-19, Liberalization, and Asymmetric Relations
Political Geography:: Turkey and Azerbaijan

12. Turkey’s struggling economy, regional isolation, behind latest charm offensive with Israel and other countries

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: A clear Turkish rationale for better relations with Israel is to weaken the strategic partnership between Jerusalem, Greece, and Cyprus and get access to Israel’s natural gas.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

13. Characterisation of Danish agricultural investments in Tanzania and Uganda

Author:: Rikke Broegaard, Helle Monk Ravnborg, Evelyne Lazaro, Teddy Nakanwagi, and David Tumusiime
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: This DIIS Working Paper presents key characteristics of each of the six cases including main crop focus, size and business model, as well as types of investors, their investment approach and the factors that motivate them. It also presents the different objectives that the investors have expressed wanting to achieve. As most of the investments involve private funds, it is reasonable to expect that one important goal is to ensure a viable economy in the investment. However, in addition to an economically sound investment, all of the investors behind these six cases have ambitions regarding ways in which they see themselves - through the investment - as contributors towards a positive societal development in the area of the investment. Thus, the paper presents the different ways the investors see their investments contributing to development in the area. The paper is based on interviews with the investors and field work in the areas of investments.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Environment, Poverty, Natural Resources, Food, Inequality, Investment, and Land Rights
Political Geography:: Europe, Denmark, Tanzania, and Africa

14. Why Most Communities in Zimbabwe Are Embracing the Right2SayNo

Author:: Farai Maguwu
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: A new scramble for Africa’s natural resources is leaving communities more impoverished, oppressed, and traumatized. Enriching the ruling elites and mul- tinational corporations, the withdrawal of natural resources from the Earth con- tributes to land and water grabs, violence, intimidation, desecration of cultural heritage sites, pollution of water sources, and poverty in communities hosting natural resources. Whereas exploitation of natural resources is expected to boost local economies and improve livelihoods, the lived realities of host communities in Zimbabwe demonstrate that living standards decline when natural resource extraction occurs. There is often trading of accusations between government and extractive industries on the problem of whose responsibility it is to develop resource-rich communities. Corruption and a rent-seeking culture have weakened governance, leading to social stratification, class formations, and entrenched autocratic rule. Access to resource rents is also turning the focus of government away from other more sustainable sectors of the economy, such as agriculture, manufacturing, and tourism. This paradox of plenty, also known as the resource curse, confirms the long-held view that countries with abundant natural resource reserves are prone to poverty, confliict, and poor governance. In these countries, natural resources are sometimes used to finance violence, repression, and rigged elections.
Topic:: Corruption, Natural Resources, Elites, Value Extraction, and Rent-seeking
Political Geography:: Africa and Zimbabwe

15. Submarine Collision Highlights Turbulent South China Sea

Author:: Chin Yoon Chin
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Maritime Institute of Malaysia
Abstract:: Navigating through or under the water can be very trying when the area that one is transiting or operating is not well surveyed and charted. A vast area in the Spratly and Paracel island chain in the South China Sea is covered with corals and seamounts which could grow or pop up after a seismic disturbance. It is believed that there are vast areas of oil and gas deposits and precious metal in its depth, and it is also a rich fishing ground for these states bordering the South China Sea. For the past two decades or so, six littoral parties (China, The Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei and Taiwan) have staked claims over this body of water. In recent years, the United States has been challenging China’s legitimacy to the claim by conducting freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) through China’s claimed areas. Why the US employed a submarine-like USS Connecticut to the South China Sea and for what purpose is anyone’s guess. Whatever task the submarine had undertaken, if it had operated within the confine of the gazetted sea lanes, it would not have run into this incident. The most likely situation was it operated “outside the normal” operational area when the incident occurred. It is believed that China’s underwater technology has improved over the last decades. This incident, in a way, has hyped up military activities in the South China Sea. The turbulence will not subside but will result in further escalation of tension which all the countries in this region would not want it to happen. To manage and mitigate tension, confidence-building and dialogues among all parties concerned are necessary to set aside differences, have mutual respect, and achieve the common goal of enhancing safe navigation and protecting the environment, instead of creating doubts and suspicions.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Hegemony, Gas, Maritime, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

16. The Scramble for the Eastern Mediterranean: Energy and Geopolitics

Author:: Valeria Talbot
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Over the past few years, the Eastern Mediterranean has become a major hotspot for both natural gas and geopolitical competition. Natural gas discoveries in the last decade have attracted growing interest from regional countries and beyond. However, recent escalations in tensions and outright confrontations suggest that competition goes beyond the scramble for energy. Indeed, natural gas is just one of the factors that contribute to shaping security and geopolitical dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean, which has emerged as a crucial strategic area in the broader Mediterranean and the Middle East. Moving from the analysis of these interconnected factors, this Report examines the strategy and the plethora of interests of regional and international players, as well as the interplay between cooperative and competitive dynamics in the region. What are the geopolitical, security, and energy interests of the countries involved? What are the implications on the regional security context of the moves and policies of regional and international powers?
Topic:: Natural Resources, Geopolitics, Gas, Strategic Competition, and Energy
Political Geography:: Middle East and Mediterranean

17. An Analysis of the Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Conduct of Monetary Policy in the Economic

Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: For many years, the economies of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa, like most of the world’s economies, have been confronted with numerous fluctuations in the price of raw materials on international markets. For these predominantly extroverted economies, that is, those dependent on export earnings, these price variations have consequences for their macroeconomic performance and the conduct of economic policy. Like most economic crises in the world in the past, the pandemic caused by the new Coronavirus that has been raging since 2020 has also brought with it many changes. Between the confinement measures taken by public authorities to curb the spread of the virus and the resulting slowdown in global economic activity, there has been an inevitable significant drop in global oil demand. The direct consequence of such a scenario is the fall in oil prices on world markets, which is very bad news for the public finances of oil-exporting countries. The main objective of this report is to analyze the effects of oil price fluctuations on the conduct of monetary policy in the CEMAC. We start from the observation that oil shocks are the source of strong inflationary pressures in these economies. It is the responsibility of monetary policy to ensure price stability. Thus, after analyzing the effects of oil price fluctuations on the world economy as well as the macroeconomic and financial implications of these fluctuations on the economies in 2020, we use a Vector Auto Regressive model to analyze the contribution of oil price shocks on the historical dynamics of macroeconomic variables in the various CEMAC countries between 2001 and 2020. Then, we use a Panel Smooth Transition Regression model to analyze the impact of oil price changes on monetary policy in the CEMAC.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, Oil, Natural Resources, Monetary Policy, Global Markets, Inflation, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa, Cameroon, and Central Africa

18. Fossil Fuel Subsidy Inventories vs. Net Carbon Prices: a Consistent Approach for Measuring Fossil Fuel Price Incentives

Author:: Jens Bohm and Sonja Peterson
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Different reports including the broadly cited OECD fossil fuel subsidy inventory arrive at high monetary values of fossil fuel subsidies and suggest that phasing out these subsidies has a high potential to increase the efficiency of climate policies. We show that the inventory approach gives misleading information about this potential since there is little correlation with net carbon prices that actually reflect the stringency of climate policies. We use data on net fossil fuel taxation from the OECD´s Taxing Energy Use report and augment it with data on subsidies and emission permits, to calculate national and sectoral net carbon prices for the top six emitters (China, US, India, Russia, Japan and Germany) and for Poland and Sweden, two European countries perceived as examples of opposing environmental policies. Our results show that in high-income countries, subsidies mainly relate to reduced fuel tax rates for certain uses, so that e.g. Sweden, for which the OECD inventory reports subsidies per ton of CO2 26 times higher than the US, has a 770% higher national net carbon price than the US. While Germany and Russia have similar subsidy levels in the OECD inventory, the national net carbon price in Germany is 50 €/tCO2, while producer subsidies lead to a negative net carbon price of -6€/tCO2 in Russia. Our results illustrate that raising taxes on fossil fuels will often lead to higher reported inventory subsidies. Inventory measures thus give little information about the efficiency of climate policy. Our analysis also shows the large differences in net carbon prices across countries and across sectors within countries. Net carbon prices should replace fossil fuel subsidies in the policy debates and become the basis for national energy tax reforms and international agreements on minimum carbon prices.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:: Global Focus

19. Moscow’s Hopes to Use Water as ‘New Oil’ Outraging Siberians

Author:: Paul A. Goble
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Given the Vladimir Putin regime’s past reliance on oil exports, it is perhaps no surprise that Moscow has been casting about for some other raw material it can sell abroad now that hydrocarbon prices have fallen and Russian government revenues along with them. But its apparent selection of water as “the new oil” that it can sell to water-short China is again outraging Russians. Indeed, the policy may soon lead to the repetition of protests against such projects that roiled the country east of the Urals in 2019 and 2020. And this could complicate Russia’s relations not just with China but with Mongolia and Central Asian countries as well. By focusing exclusively on the possibility of foreign profits rather than the concerns of its own population, the Putin regime—wittingly or not—is recapitulating some of the steps the Communist leaders fatefully took in the years preceding the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Water, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

20. Water Politics in Libya: A Crisis of Management, not Scarcity

Author:: Malak Altaeb
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Libya is one of the driest countries in the world. The Great Man-Made River Project, touted by Qaddhafi as a solution to take advantage of Libya’s plentiful natural resources, serves as a case study in social and institutional engineering. This article discusses the defining characteristics and legacies of hydro-politics under Qaddhafi, presents some of the new issues that have emerged since regime change in 2011, and offers some ways forward for water policy in Libya.
Topic:: Security, Natural Resources, Water, and Resource Management
Political Geography:: Africa and Libya

21. Lake Chad: Another Protracted Crisis in the Sahel or a Regional Exception?

Author:: Bernardo Venturi and Luca Barana
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Common narratives on the Lake Chad Basin often focus on the nexus between conflict, development and climate change. In particular, the Lake’s situation attracts international coverage due to its shrinking size and the threat of multiple crises emanating from environmental degradation. This framework appears useful for donors and local governments, but the feedback loops among climate change, social marginalisation and conflict are not as straightforward. The problem is that the dominance of this analytical framework calls for policy response tools that are not always adequate. In the security field, the role of the Multinational Joint Task Force has been growing, but a stronger push in the sphere of governance is needed in order for it to gain legitimacy and improve its effectiveness on the ground. In the meantime, the Lake Chad Basin Commission has adopted some key policy tools to manage the natural resources in the area sustainably, but these initial steps must be followed by greater investment from Commission member states to advance implementation. An integrated regional approach remains the best way forward to tackle these complex dynamics. Paper prepared in the framework of the project “Water diplomacy and culture of sustainability. The Chad Basin”.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Water, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Africa, Nigeria, Chad, Sahel, and Niger

22. Natural Gas in South-east Asia: Key Trends and Long-term Outlook

Author:: Luca Franza and Beni Suryadi
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Given the increasing gas demand and declining domestic supply, countries in South-east Asia are bracing themselves to become net gas importers and are studying ways to enhance their security of supply. LNG will be the preferred source of gas, thanks to its flexibility and widespread availability at competitive prices in global markets. However, concerns related to excessive gas import dependency might reduce appetite for additional gas usage in South-east Asia. This could mean that coal would have a larger role, which is bad news for climate change. Countries in the ASEAN region need policies to achieve balanced, reliable, secure and cost-effective energy supply, a pre-requisite for the region’s ambitious economic development plans. A combination of solid local policies, investment by international players in the region and stability in global gas markets would enable gas to play a positive role in South-east Asia, which is a fast-growing region and an increasingly important catalyst of global energy market developments. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI-Eni Strategic Partnership, May 2021.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Gas, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

23. Oil and Capital Flight: The Case of Angola

Author:: Nicholas Shaxson
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Angola’s “paradox of plenty,” as a country with rich resources and poor development outcomes, makes it ideal for the study of capital flight. With the fifth largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa, the country is known not for what it has done with its vast natural resource endowment, but what it has failed to do with it. The country features prominently in the literature on the ‘resource curse,' as the discovery and exploitation of petroleum has suffocated the development of other economic sectors while profiting the national elite and its foreign partners. This has been accomplished notably through establishment of a powerful parastatal to manage oil, Sonangol, which observers have described as “an island of competence” yet has been instrumental to wealth extraction. Angola’s oil and diamonds also played a critical role in motivating and financing the country’s prolonged and devastating civil war.
Topic:: Development, Oil, Political Economy, Natural Resources, Conflict, and Capital Flight
Political Geography:: Africa and Angola

24. Experimental Field Evidence of Common Pool Resources: The Water Judge in Bolivia

Author:: Javier Aliaga Lordemann
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:: Common pool resources (CPRs) are usually exploited one generation after another – often overexploited – meaning there is an intergenerational link between the consumers – e.g., water for farming activities. This key dimension is often not considered in theoretical or field experiments, due to the difficultly in approaching it. We want to overcome this barrier introducing the hypothesis of ‘’intergenerational altruism” for CPRs. The implication is that altruism reduce the exploitation of the natural resources, since the agents recognize that the exploitation not only creates negative externalities for their own generation, but also for all future generations. An alternative hypothesis is the ‘’intergenerational equity’’ where the agents restrain their consumption to equalize their income over time. To prove these hypotheses, we conducted a field experiment in four farming communities located in the Bolivian Department of Chuquisaca during the third quarter of 2019. We consider common water for farming activities as a CPRs, since these communities use this resource for several decades, the intergenerational link is evident. Our intergenerational field experiment includes four treatments based on the replacement rate of the resources – i.e., FAST, SLOW, RESTART or normal replacement, under one-shot non-cooperative game without feedback. We also introduce two variations, the possibility to accumulate water in a dam, which modify the availability of CPRs. Second, the possibility to manage the common farming water through the traditional social arrangement of the Water Judge, which is a representative member of the community delegated to solve problems related with water management, named SAT treatment. The results showed that our hypothesis was not probed since the intergenerational link does not mitigate the overexploitation of CPRs. Nevertheless, we also found that the “Water Judge” could be a cost-effective treatment in small farming communities.
Topic:: Environment, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:: Bolivia

25. Nature-based solutions to development and climate change challenges: Understanding ecosystem-based adaptation approaches

Author:: Marie Ladekjær Gravesen and Mikkel Funder
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Nature-based Solutions (NbS) to climate- and development-related challenges have recently gained attention in development cooperation. Among other, approaches that fall under the NbS umbrella include Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA), Ecosystem-based Mitigation (EbM) and Ecosystem-based Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR). This new DIIS Working Paper focuses on nature-based solutions to climate change adaptation, EbA. It provides an overview of selected lessons learnt from EbA in the context of development cooperation, with a particular emphasis on the opportunities and risks regarding poverty alleviation and rights. It generates learning for Danish development cooperation, including future programming under Denmark’s 2021 development strategy, in which NbS approaches are emphasised. However, the paper can also be read as a general discussion of experiences with EbA in the development context. The three-legged EbA approach focuses on human well-being, ecosystem management, and climate change adaptation. EbA has already been applied to a range of ecosystems, including the restoration of mangroves to shield them against storm and sea-level rises, the management of watersheds to protect against droughts and flooding, the management of rangelands to inhibit desertification and land degradation, and more sustainably managed fisheries and forestry to tackle food insecurity. EbA thus not only addresses the restoration of already degraded ecosystems, but also the sustainable use, management, and conservation of intact ecosystems. The paper provides a conceptual overview of EbA in relation to NbS, outlines the potential in using EbA approaches, and describes the landscape of the institutions and agencies that fund, promote and implement EbA. The paper then provides a synthesis of lessons learned from PES and REDD+ schemes that are of relevance to EbA. For instance, it is emphasised that many REDD+ measures have effectively existed as project islands that were not anchored in national or subnational planning and governance mechanisms. As a result, the conservation activities and socioeconomic benefits were often not effectively integrated or scaled up beyond small project sites. If comprehensively implemented, the EbA approach builds on these experiences by insuring full inclusion of stakeholders from all relevant sectors, as well as demanding full integration in existing policies, planning and governance practices from the ministry levels to sub-national governments. Among the final recommendations and possible entry points for Danish development cooperation, the paper highlights that the support must have a strong focus on ensuring that EbA is pro-poor (i.e. supports poverty alleviation) and rights-based (i.e. supports the rights of local resource users). Experience from EbA and related efforts show that EbA is not automatically pro-poor or supportive of local rights to natural resources and ecosystem services. In particular, there is insufficient attention to and knowledge of rights issues in EbA. Therefore, Danish development cooperation should help lead the way in ensuring that EbA takes a rights-based approach and supports poverty alleviation.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Environment, Poverty, Natural Resources, Water, Food, Governance, Inequality, Investment, and Land Rights
Political Geography:: Global Focus

26. Both hard and soft corporate practices construct and secure industrial mining operations: The case of Colombia

Author:: Line Jespersgaard Jakobsen
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: This DIIS Working Paper elaborates how local consent to a huge industrial mining complex, including a port and a 150 km railway built in the 1980’s on indigenous arid lands, were created. Showing how both ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ security technologies were effective in preparing the complex, constructing the necessary infrastructure and securing the operation, the paper at the same time illustrates how corporate security practices have changed over time in the northern part of Colombia. The paper is based on extended ethnographic fieldwork in La Guajira, Colombia, carried out through 2018 and 2019 as well as historical written documents.
Topic:: Security, Environment, Oil, Poverty, Natural Resources, Non State Actors, Gas, Capitalism, Inequality, Economy, Conflict, Ethnography, Violence, Investment, Justice, Land Rights, and Minerals
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Latin America

27. How to rein in fossil fuel subsidies ? Towards a New WTO Regime

Author:: Simon Happersberger, Eleanor Mateo, and Selcukhan Ünekbas
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:: Fossil fuel subsidies have negative consequences on the climate change, public budgets and and the transition to an environmentally friendly economy. Nevertheless, governments do not keep up with their commitments to phase out fossil fuel subsidies but misallocate again COVID-19 recovery funds in fossil fuel subsidies. This article provides an analysis of the current obstacles for phasing out fossil fuel subsidies and the potential of the WTO to advance a reform on fossil fuel subsidies. It argues that the WTO can contribute to a fossil fuel subsidies reform by its technical expertise in regulating subsidies, by its broad membership and by its institutional setting. Under the current framework of the ASCM, WTO member can use existing mechanisms, such as the TPRM, to increase transparency in the short term and facilitate discussions on the scope of subsidies while mitigating impacts on vulnerable groups or sectors. This would provide the ground for governments to work towards a new and ambitious agreement to stop producer fossil fuels subsidies and phase out consumer fossil fuels subsidies in the mid-to-long-term. However, the phase out of consumer subsidies needs to be carefully designed and embedded, to avoid unintended consequences on energy access and vulnerable households.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Natural Resources, Trade, Fossil Fuels, COVID-19, WTO, and Ecology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

28. COVID-19 and Conservation: Crisis Response Strategies that Benefit People and Nature

Author:: Ina Lehmann, César Rodríguez Garavito, and Anna Spenceley
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic is a global human health crisis that is deeply intertwined with the global biodiversity crisis. It originated when a zoonotic virus spilled over from wild animals to humans. Viruses can spread easily in disturbed ecosystems, and with increasing contact between humans and wildlife the risk of contagion grows. Conservation is crucial to reduce the risks of future pandemics, but the current pandemic also impacts on conservation in many ways. In this Briefing Paper we suggest strategies to alleviate the pandemic’s adverse effects on conservation in the Global South. Many zoonoses originate there, and livelihoods are strongly dependent on natural resources. The paper considers the pandemic’s overarching economic implica-tions for protected and other conserved areas, and specific ramifications for the tourism and wildlife trade sectors, which are closely related to these areas. As economies shrink, natural resources come under pressure from various sides. Financial resources are reallocated from the conservation to the health sector, countries decrease environmental protection standards to boost economic recovery, and poor people in rural regions resort to protected wild resources as a subsistence strategy. Together, these trends speed up the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services and create supportive conditions for the emergence of zoonotic disease and the undermining of livelihoods.
Topic:: Environment, Natural Resources, Nature, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

29. Biodiversity and Development: The evolution of Community Based Conservation and implications for Danish development cooperation

Author:: Mikkel Funder and Marie Ladekjær Gravesen
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Loss of nature and biodiversity constitutes a major global crisis for environment and development and interacts closely with the climate crisis. After a period of limited attention, conservation is again rising on the agenda of development cooperation, especially in the context of Nature-based Solutions. There is a growing consensus that biodiversity goals can only be achieved by focusing more on conservation outside conventional protected areas. This offers new opportunities for both conservation and development, but it also poses a risk of ‘green grabbing’ whereby communities loose access to land and natural resources that are key for their survival and resilience. In the support to biodiversity conservation, attention to Community Based Conservation (CBC) is therefore critical. However, CBC approaches are not new and have not always worked. Future support to such approaches must therefore learn from the past and incorporate new directions. This DIIS Working Paper, written by Mikkel Funder and Marie Ladekjær Gravesen, DIIS, provides an overview of the evolution of community-based biodiversity conservation since the 1980s, where new approaches are heading, and what the overall lessons are so far. On this basis it provides recommendations for how Denmark’s development cooperation can support community-based conservation. The paper focuses on the socioeconomic and governance dimensions of community-based conservation and draws particularly on experiences from area-based conservation in the African setting. The study finds that: • CBC has developed and expanded but is not yet consolidated on the ground • Community rights to land and natural resources are critical for successful CBC • CBC must be better anchored in local livelihoods and economies • Economic compensation and income substitution is not enough in itself • A growing emphasis on CBC in ‘working landscapes’ offers potential • National associations and networks have been important platforms for CBC advocacy • There is a need to strengthen horizontal and vertical institutional links for CBC The paper recommends that Denmark should: Strengthen support to community-based conservation outside protected areas. Denmark can play an important role in helping to ensure that conservation in these spaces is done in the right and most effective way, i.e. that it benefits biodiversity while also strengthening the rights and livelihoods of communities. Integrate support to CBC with support to climate change adaptation and resilience. With the right approach, Ecosystem Based Adaptation offers good scope for protecting and improving the conditions for both biodiversity conservation and development. Support protection of the land- and governance rights of communities and indigenous peoples in biodiversity conservation. Denmark should (i) advance legal recognition and enforceable safeguards of rights-based approaches in the implementation of the CBD’s post-2020 global biodiversity framework; (ii) support practical application of the IUCN’s Natural Resource Governance Framework and standards for Nature Based Solutions; and (iii) prioritise multilateral and bilateral support to conservation initiatives that actively sustain and strengthen community land rights as part of the solution. Support CBC approaches that transcend the conventional separation between human production and conservation. This entails a broad approach to biodiversity conservation which goes beyond species protection in isolated islands of ‘wild nature’. A key emphasis should be on supporting CBC in ‘working landscapes’, i.e. strengthening existing sustainable production systems in crop farming areas, rangelands, forests, wetlands, urban areas etc. Support CBC schemes to become more firmly anchored in local resource use economies. Many conventional CBC schemes - especially in the African setting – are heavily dependent on international leisure markets such as tourism/hunting and on recurrent donor funding. This poses risks, as illustrated by the major funding concerns for African conservation following the Covid-19 epidemic. A more diversified strategy is needed. Facilitate bio-cultural approaches to the governance of biodiversity conservation. This means accepting a diversity of conservation values and that conservation will look different from place to place. It entails an approach in which CBC arrangements are tailored to the socio-ecological and cultural context - rather than following a universal model - but which also builds broader nested governance frameworks for negotiation, decision-making, conflict resolution and knowledge sharing. Alongside place-based conservation, it is critical to sustain and strengthen Denmark’s efforts to engage with the broader drivers of biodiversity loss at global and national levels. While CBC is critically important for conservation, it cannot on its own address wider drivers of biodiversity loss.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Natural Resources, and Land Rights
Political Geography:: Denmark

30. Israel and Energy in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:: Mitvim
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: This paper focuses on the role of energy in shaping Israel’s policies towards the Mediterranean. It is based on the main points raised at the fourth meeting of the research and policy group on “Israel in the Mediterranean” held in December 2019 at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. The meeting was held at the initiative of the Mitvim Institute, the Hebrew University’s Leonard Davis Institute for International Relations and Haifa University’s National Security Studies Center. This paper highlights the main repercussions of energy findings on regional cooperation and the opportunities it opens up for Israel. It presents the link between diplomatic and economic considerations, and the emerging energy alternatives that Israel is considering as it formulates and implements policies. The paper does not reflect agreement among all meeting participants.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, and Economy
Political Geography:: Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Mediterranean

31. Israel, Energy, and the Eastern Mediterranean: Shaping a New Regional Foreign Policy

Author:: Gabriel Mitchell
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: This paper explores the nexus between Israel’s energy policy and foreign policy interests in the Eastern Mediterranean. While regional energy cooperation has the potential to be one of the most significant and enduring Israeli foreign policy achievements in recent decades, a closer look at regional geopolitics reveals that energy cooperation is often transactional in nature, and rarely transformative. The discovery of offshore hydrocarbons has also aggravated existing tensions between regional actors. This subject deserves more serious discussion by Israeli policymakers and the Israeli public, who often accept the Netanyahu government’s argument that energy exports will provide Israel massive strategic benefits. As this paper argues, in order to chart an optimal course forward, Israelis must first have a realistic conversation about energy’s potential to catalyze changes in the Eastern Mediterranean that serve Israel’s domestic needs and strategic interests.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, and Grand Strategy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Mediterranean

32. The New “Rare Metal Age”: New Challenges and Implications of Critical Raw Materials Supply Security in the 21st Century

Author:: Frank Umbach
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: When Beijing threatened to restrict China’s export of rare earths (widely used in numerous important civilian and military technologies) to the United States at the end of May 2019, the world was reminded of China’s rare earths export disruption in the autumn of 2010 amid a maritime territorial conflict between China and Japan. In the past few years, the worldwide attention cast on the future supply security of rare earths and other critical raw materials has increased in the United States, the European Union, Japan and other countries owing to the global expansion of “green technologies” (including renewable energy sources, electric vehicles and batteries, and smart grids) and digitalisation as well as equipment and devices embedded with artificial intelligence. In this paper, the term “critical raw materials” (CRMs) refers to raw materials critical to industries that are also import-dependent on them, and to new technologies which often have no viable substitutes and whose supply, besides being constrained by limited recycling rates and options, is also dominated by one or a few suppliers. CRMs include rare earth elements (REEs), which comprise 17 different elements (see Figure 4). The global race for the most advanced technologies dependent on CRMs has intensified the competition for access to as well as strategic control of REEs, lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel and other CRMs. This working paper analyses the global supply and demand balance of three CRMs (REEs, lithium and cobalt, the latter two being major raw materials for batteries) in the foreseeable future and whether ASEAN countries can play a role as producers and suppliers of CRMs. It also examines potential counterstrategies for mitigating and reducing the global demand for CRMs, such as substitution, reduced use of CRMs, and recycling and re-use.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Digital Economy, Green Technology, and Metals
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, and Asia

33. A Review of Sierra Leone’s Mines and Minerals Act

Author:: Tehtena Mebratu-Tsegaye, Perrine Toledano, and Sophie Thomashusen
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: With the support of Oxfam, the Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment reviewed select provisions in the Mines and Minerals Act 2009 and corresponding policy statements from the Minerals Policy 2018 to provide recommendations for how to best align the anticipated new mining law with international best practice. The 2009 law was reviewed with a focus on the following topics: • Fiscal regime; • Climate change; • Access to and use of land; • Community consultations and participation; • Human rights; and • Community development agreements.
Topic:: Climate Change, Human Rights, Natural Resources, Mining, Land, Sustainability, and Community
Political Geography:: Africa, West Africa, and Sierra Leone

34. Sustainable Water Resource Development Scenarios and Water Diplomacy in the Lower Mekong Basin: Policy Implications

Author:: Han Phoumin
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: This paper uses the current results of the Basin-wide water resource development scenario assessment of the Council Study of the Mekong River Commission Secretariat (MRCS) to analyse potentials benefits for economic development to meet the ambitious goal of the riparian states of the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) countries for poverty reduction and, at the same time, analyse the risks of potential trans-boundary trade-off, which will require an appropriate mechanism to be in place. The scenario assessment results present both opportunities and risks associated with different levels of water resource development in the Mekong countries and the implications of the water diplomacy for both the lower and uper mekong basin. All scenarios could be broadly placed into three main categories with different timeframes and assumptions. Scenario M1 – the early development scenario – characterises baseline water resource developments in 2007; Scenario M2 – the medium-term definite future scenario – characterises existing, under-construction, and firmly-committed water related developments in 2020; and Scenario M3 – the long-term planned development scenario – characterises the planned water developments in 2040 in addition to those assigned for 2020 for implementation over the following 2 decades. The main scenarios aggregate combinations of water resource developments enabling the cumulative assessment of environmental, social, and economic effects in the Member Countries. The Scenarios will bring both economic opportunities in terms of benefits from water resource development as well as risks related to biodiversity changes, the environmental damages and losses of livelihoods, and the dependency on the natural resources of the Mekong River. Each of the scenario results presents the trans-boundary trade-off which requires appropriate skills, capacities of the LMB riparian countries, and water diplomacy to discuss and negotiate for the solutions. Finally, this paper provides some suggestions and policy implications that could be possible mechanisms and solutions for sustainable water resource development in the Mekong region.
Topic:: Environment, Natural Resources, Water, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Asia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Laos

35. Reporte de Recomendaciones de Política: Hacia un Loreto más próspero

Author:: Ricardo Hausmann, Miguel Angel Santos, Jorge Tudela Pye, Frank Muci, Yang Li, Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm, Ana Cristina Grisanti, and Jessie Lu
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Loreto es un lugar de contrastes. Es el departamento más grande del Perú, pero se encuentra entre los de menor densidad poblacional. Su capital, Iquitos, está más cerca de los estados fronterizos de Brasil y Colombia que de las capitales de sus regiones vecinas en el Perú - San Martín y Ucayali. Sólo se puede llegar a Iquitos por vía aérea o fluvial, lo que la convierte en una de las mayores ciudades del mundo sin acceso por carretera. Desde la fundación del departamento, la economía de Loreto ha dependido de la explotación de recursos naturales, desde el boom del caucho a finales del siglo XIX y principios del XX hasta la extracción petrolera y explotación de recursos forestales que predomina en nuestros días. Este modelo ha traído consigo daños ambientales significativos y ha producido un patrón de crecimiento lento y volátil, que ha abierto una brecha cada vez más amplia entre la economía de la región y la del resto del país. Entre 1980 y 2018, Loreto creció a una tasa promedio compuesta anual cuatro veces menor a la del resto del Perú. Es decir, mientras el resto del Perú triplicó el tamaño de su economía, la de Loreto creció algo menos que un tercio. En la última década (2008-2018), la región también se ha venido distanciando de sus pares amazónicos en el país (Ucayali, San Martín y Madre de Dios), que han crecido a una tasa promedio anual cinco veces mayor. En este período, el ingreso promedio por habitante en Loreto ha pasado de ser tres cuartas partes del promedio nacional en 2008 a menos de la mitad para 2018. Además del rezago económico - o quizás como consecuencia de él -, Loreto también se ubica entre los departamentos con peores indicadores de desarrollo social, anemia y desnutrición infantil del Perú. En este contexto, el Laboratorio de Crecimiento de la Universidad de Harvard se asoció con la Fundación Gordon and Betty Moore para desarrollar una investigación que proporcionara insumos y recomendaciones de política para acelerar el desarrollo de la región y generar prosperidad de forma sostenible.
Topic:: Environment, Natural Resources, Economic Growth, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: South America and Peru

36. Israel is Turkey’s Neighbor Across the Sea: Delimitation of the Maritime Jurisdiction Areas between Turkey and Israel

Author:: Cihat Yayci
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In this issue of Turkeyscope, Retired Admiral Prof. Cihat Yayci and Zeynep Ceyhan from Bahçeşehir University discuss the possibility of signing a new maritime delimitation agreement between Turkey and Israel. As the architect of Turkey's "Blue Homeland Doctrine" and the Turkish-Libyan maritime delimitation agreement, Yayci and Ceyhan argue that Turkey and Israel should become neighbors in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, Maritime, and Jurisdiction
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

37. New Directions in Mining Governance and the Sustainable Development Goals in Africa

Author:: Sara Ghebremusse
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Despite Africa's wealth of natural resources, millions of its people live in extreme poverty. Effective mining governance can help Africa address this imbalance by achieving UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 1 (to end poverty) and SDG 8 (to create sustainable economic growth and decent work for all). Reforms aimed at generating more revenue for national governments to address poverty and building new partnerships between public and private sectors to promote economic growth and boost employment can help achieve these goals.
Topic:: Poverty, United Nations, Natural Resources, Employment, Sustainable Development Goals, and Private Sector
Political Geography:: Africa

38. Water Security in Southeast Asia: Regional, National, and Sub-national Challenges

Author:: Christopher Chen and Angelo Paolo L. Trias
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Water is a fundamental element of survival and growth on Earth. As a prerequisite for life and an important economic resource, it supports all aspects of everyday activity. Ensuring that water is available, accessible and safe for current and future generations is among humanity’s greatest challenge. One of the most important Non-Traditional Security (NTS) challenges facing Southeast Asia is water security. This NTS Insight explores water security issues in Southeast Asia and examines the ways it threatens states and societies. While water security challenges are not new in the region, the nature of issues are changing, making it important to assess how such threats are defined, negotiated, and managed. The NTS governance process begins with identifying and understanding NTS challenges, and ways they are securitised. By looking at case studies at the sub-national, national and regional level, this paper seeks to present some of the major water security issues in the region, how they affect states and societies, and why they merit urgent attention and resources. This Insight explains why addressing sub-national water security challenges require consultative and participatory approaches that facilitate open democratic dialogue and local collective action. It will also lay out how deliberate planning, careful implementation, and judicious monitoring of water management policies are needed at both the national and regional levels. Further, while it is not easy to reconcile developmental goals with environmental protection, the gravity of the situation requires more preventive diplomacy and subregional collaborative mechanisms which are geared towards averting water conflicts. Overall, it aims to help formal and informal NTS actors working through various channels to gain further understanding of emerging water security challenges in Southeast Asia.
Topic:: Security, Environment, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

39. Reporte de Recomendaciones de Política: Hacia un Loreto más próspero

Author:: Ricardo Hausmann and Miguel Angel Santos
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Loreto es un lugar de contrastes. Es el departamento más grande del Perú, pero se encuentra entre los de menor densidad poblacional. Su capital, Iquitos, está más cerca de los estados fronterizos de Brasil y Colombia que de las capitales de sus regiones vecinas en el Perú - San Martín y Ucayali. Sólo se puede llegar a Iquitos por vía aérea o fluvial, lo que la convierte en una de las mayores ciudades del mundo sin acceso por carretera. Desde la fundación del departamento, la economía de Loreto ha dependido de la explotación de recursos naturales, desde el boom del caucho a finales del siglo XIX y principios del XX hasta la extracción petrolera y explotación de recursos forestales que predomina en nuestros días. Este modelo ha traído consigo daños ambientales significativos y ha producido un patrón de crecimiento lento y volátil, que ha abierto una brecha cada vez más amplia entre la economía de la región y la del resto del país. Entre 1980 y 2018, Loreto creció a una tasa promedio compuesta anual cuatro veces menor a la del resto del Perú. Es decir, mientras el resto del Perú triplicó el tamaño de su economía, la de Loreto creció algo menos que un tercio. En la última década (2008-2018), la región también se ha venido distanciando de sus pares amazónicos en el país (Ucayali, San Martín y Madre de Dios), que han crecido a una tasa promedio anual cinco veces mayor. En este período, el ingreso promedio por habitante en Loreto ha pasado de ser tres cuartas partes del promedio nacional en 2008 a menos de la mitad para 2018. Además del rezago económico - o quizás como consecuencia de él -, Loreto también se ubica entre los departamentos con peores indicadores de desarrollo social, anemia y desnutrición infantil del Perú. En este contexto, el Laboratorio de Crecimiento de la Universidad de Harvard se asoció con la Fundación Gordon and Betty Moore para desarrollar una investigación que proporcionara insumos y recomendaciones de política para acelerar el desarrollo de la región y generar prosperidad de forma sostenible.
Topic:: Development, Natural Resources, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: South America and Peru

40. Reporte de Recomendaciones de Política: Hacia un Loreto más próspero

Author:: Ricardo Hausmann and Miguel Angel Santos
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Loreto es un lugar de contrastes. Es el departamento más grande del Perú, pero se encuentra entre los de menor densidad poblacional. Su capital, Iquitos, está más cerca de los estados fronterizos de Brasil y Colombia que de las capitales de sus regiones vecinas en el Perú - San Martín y Ucayali. Sólo se puede llegar a Iquitos por vía aérea o fluvial, lo que la convierte en una de las mayores ciudades del mundo sin acceso por carretera. Desde la fundación del departamento, la economía de Loreto ha dependido de la explotación de recursos naturales, desde el boom del caucho a finales del siglo XIX y principios del XX hasta la extracción petrolera y explotación de recursos forestales que predomina en nuestros días. Este modelo ha traído consigo daños ambientales significativos y ha producido un patrón de crecimiento lento y volátil, que ha abierto una brecha cada vez más amplia entre la economía de la región y la del resto del país. Entre 1980 y 2018, Loreto creció a una tasa promedio compuesta anual cuatro veces menor a la del resto del Perú. Es decir, mientras el resto del Perú triplicó el tamaño de su economía, la de Loreto creció algo menos que un tercio. En la última década (2008-2018), la región también se ha venido distanciando de sus pares amazónicos en el país (Ucayali, San Martín y Madre de Dios), que han crecido a una tasa promedio anual cinco veces mayor. En este período, el ingreso promedio por habitante en Loreto ha pasado de ser tres cuartas partes del promedio nacional en 2008 a menos de la mitad para 2018. Además del rezago económico - o quizás como consecuencia de él -, Loreto también se ubica entre los departamentos con peores indicadores de desarrollo social, anemia y desnutrición infantil del Perú. En este contexto, el Laboratorio de Crecimiento de la Universidad de Harvard se asoció con la Fundación Gordon and Betty Moore para desarrollar una investigación que proporcionara insumos y recomendaciones de política para acelerar el desarrollo de la región y generar prosperidad de forma sostenible.
Topic:: Development, Natural Resources, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: South America and Peru

41. Russia Strives for an Oil and Gas Resurgence

Author:: Pavel K. Baev
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: As the global economy—animated by the arrival of multiple COVID-19 vaccines—hopes for the first signs of recovery, expectations also rise in Russia for an accompanying surge in demand for oil and natural gas and renewed prominence of energy geopolitics in foreign policy-making. President Vladimir Putin is a firm believer in hydrocarbons as the world’s main energy source and a sceptic of “green agendas,” even if Chinese President Xi Jinping has subscribed to the pledge to curtail emissions (TASS, September 30). Russia’s Energy Strategy 2035, approved in June 2020, sets ambitious goals for expanding oil and gas extraction and defines the shifts in the world markets toward carbon-neutral energy production as a major challenge (Vedomosti, May 19; see EDM, June 2). Mainstream Russian experts dismiss the European Union’s post-crisis recovery plans that include new incentives for developing zero-carbon-emission energy sources; defiantly, they project that Russian energy exports to the European market will continue to expand (Kommersant, December 3).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, and Economy
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

42. Iran's Influence in the Middle East

Author:: Jadranka Polovic
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: The Middle East as one of the most heterogeneous and politically conflicting regions in the world and has long been at the center of international interest. Faced with sectarian wars and comprehensive social crises for decades the Middle East, due to its geostrategic importance and especially the imperative of controlling the region’s vast energy resources, has once again become a battle ground for major powers whose interests affect the concentration of participants in the region. The competition between global powers and growing influence of Russia and China, who undermine the US power and European Union’s influence and also undermine established alliances in the Middle East, undoubtedly require a rethinking of Western strategies for the region. A series of geopolitical challenges, especially after September 11 attacks against the United States, as a result of military interventions and civil wars (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria) and uprisings (Arab Spring) and thus the collapsed regional order, confronted the international community with the changing nature of security threats, as well as with the new balance of power of regional and international actors in the Middle East. Among the many aspects of the Middle East conflicts, the fundamental issue of regional security today is the Sunni-Shiite conflict, which has since the invasion of Iraq in 2003 directly defined the approaches and policies of great powers and significantly changed regional dynamics. In this context, Iran’s role is particularly significant. Namely, over the last two decades, Iran has consolidated its goals in the Persian Gulf and strategically expanded its influence to other countries in the Middle East, primarily Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. The growing influence of Shiite Iran, and its close relations with Shiite communities in the region with which it forms a strategic coalition, have become a key geopolitical challenge for the international community.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Natural Resources, and Hegemony
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Asia, North America, and United States of America

43. Bitter Chocolate: Wealth Extraction in Côte d'Ivoire

Author:: Jean Merckaert
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: The cocoa sector has been at the heart of Côte d'Ivoire economy since independence. The country has become the largest producer of cocoa in the world (40%). In the two first decades of independence, impressive economic growth was fueled by cocoa exports. But the Ivorian miracle evaporated after the collapse of cocoa prices and the debt soaring. The country plunged into a serious economic crisis, followed by a political crisis that culminated in civil war in the early 2000s. The primary commodity sector in Côte d’Ivoire has been highly vulnerable to illicit financial flows. Large and persistent discrepancies between Côte d'Ivoire’s cocoa export statistics and the cocoa import statistics of major partners such as the Netherlands, Germany and France are indicative of substantial capital flight through export misinvoicing. With a focus on the four major periods in Ivorian political history, this paper analyzes the trend of illicit financial outflows in the cocoa sector, the mechanisms of resource rent capture and personal enrichment that fuel them, the key national and foreign players, and their ongoing responsibilities. Under the Houphouët-Boigny regime (1960-1993), through the management of the country’s Agricultural Product Stabilization and Support Fund, the president had full control over the cocoa sector and used it to enrich himself and his associates. He and his successor Bédié (1993-1999) colluded with exporting companies in which Ivorian political leaders were shareholders. Under Gbagbo (2000-2010), the cocoa rent was the main source of funding for the civil war. The techniques of the Forces Nouvelles in the North and government forces in the South were similar: taxing cocoa production and exports, and illegally exporting part of the output to neighboring Burkina Faso and Ghana. Under the Ouattara regime (2011-2020), despite a series of reforms aimed at good governance, the cocoa sector has remained highly concentrated in the hands of a few corporate giants and plagued with favoritism, while predation in other sectors too persisted. The persistence of capital flight suggests the political economy of cocoa remains deeply rooted in the colonial scheme. Be it state-led or market-led, dominated by foreign or domestic players, the Ivorian cocoa sector has remained the place for wealth extraction to the benefit of a handful members of the elite. Overcoming primary commodity dependence is essential for equitable development.
Topic:: Political Economy, Natural Resources, Capital Flows, Commodities, Capital Flight, Chocolate, and Wealth Extraction
Political Geography:: Africa and Côte d'Ivoire

44. Agricultural Value Chains in Development Cooperation

Author:: Jana Herold
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:: The support of agricultural value chains has become an important approach in German and international development cooperation, not only to promote the economic development of a country but also to contribute to poverty reduction and food security by integrating smallholder farmers into value chains. In consequence, this approach can address a number of goals of the Agenda 2030 for sustainable development. While promoting value chains has great potential to advance sustainable development, it can also have negative effects, particularly for poor and vulnerable population groups. In order for these population groups to be able to benefit from value chain support, they need targeted financial and technical support and bridging assistance. Therefore, the approach should primarily aim at poverty reduction, but also at improving food security, empowering women and sustainable natural resource management. The main challenges of the value chain approach are insufficient access to agricultural inputs, markets and agricultural credits and the lack of entrepreneurial know-how for market-oriented production. Overall, the INEF research on agricultural value chains shows that their promotion should always start with primary production, as this is the basis for any further added value. However, the land use rights of the population eligible for support, especially women, should be clarified before any investment is made. Another critical point that any support for value chains should take into account is a country's physical infrastructure. It is necessary to connect both primary production and processing to markets. The integration of smallholder farmers into value chains is particularly viable via primary production. In order to include resource-poor farmers into value chains as well, these should be actively supported at the beginning of the project, among other things through training in market-oriented production. Furthermore, access to financial services and bridging assistance as well as to agricultural inputs is of key importance, especially at the beginning of the growing season, and particularly when market-oriented production is started for the first time. Access to credits can be facilitated by organising in cooperatives. Furthermore, this form of organisation makes it possible to bundle resources and strengthen negotiating power vis- à-vis buyers. In order to ensure that smallholder farmers can continue to supply themselves with food, especially at the start of operations, a sole focus on cash crops should be avoided and instead healthy staple foods should also be promoted. To support sustainable production, the support of value chains should always include natural resource management measures. This can increase productivity and, compared to previous practice, at the same time achieve a more ecologically sustainable cultivation of the land. In this context, secured land use rights, especially for women, provide additional incentives for farmers to invest in their fields. The studies also show that the processing of local agricultural products and commercially harvested products offers income-generating activities especially for women. In this context, locally adapted partial mechanisation is important in order to increase production efficiency without displacing women from further processing.
Topic:: Security, Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Food Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

45. Equipping the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation for the Low-Carbon Transition How Are Other National Oil Companies Adapting?

Author:: Perrine Toledano
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation’s (NNPC) persistent governance challenges have both hampered Nigeria’s oil sector development and deprived the country of public resources. The oil, climate, and COVID-19 crises and the ramp-up of the low-carbon transition exacerbate this reality, with the national oil company (NOC) delivering sub-optimal returns to its stakeholders. Other NOCs have taken meaningful steps to become players in the low-carbon energy transition domestically or internationally—for example, Saudi Arabia’s Saudi Aramco, Norway’s Equinor, Brazil’s Petrobras, Malaysia’s Petronas, and Algeria’s Sonatrach. These NOCs can serve as sources of inspiration for NNPC. These five NOCs have also undergone reforms of various aspects of their corporate governance. Even if not always sufficient, these reforms position them to be players of the energy transition. The current crisis provides a unique opportunity and political momentum for the Nigerian government and legislature to reconsider NNPC’s role in the context of the energy transition and implement profound reform of the company. While it is an incredible policy and political challenge, other NOCs are showing the way, and policy guidance is already out there to guide countries and companies.
Topic:: Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, Green Technology, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

46. Do Commodity Price Shocks Cause Armed Conflicts? A Meta-Analysis of Natural Experiments

Author:: Graeme Blair, Darin Christensen, and Aaron Rudkin
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:: Scholars of the resource curse argue that reliance on primary commodities destabilizes governments: price fluctuations generate windfalls or periods of austerity that provoke or intensify civil conflict. Over 350 quantitative studies test this claim, but prominent results point in different directions, making it difficult to discern which results reliably hold across contexts. We conduct a meta-analysis of 46 natural experiments that use difference-in-difference designs to estimate the causal effect of commodity price changes on armed civil conflict. We show that commodity price changes, on average, do not change the likelihood of conflict. However, there are cross-cutting effects by commodity type. In line with theory, we find price increases for labor-intensive agricultural commodities reduce conflict, while increases in the price of oil, a capital-intensive commodity, provoke conflict. We also find that price increases for lootable artisanal minerals provoke conflict. Our meta-analysis consolidates existing evidence, but also highlights opportunities for future research.
Topic:: Agriculture, Oil, Natural Resources, Commodities, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

47. Assessing Asia: Sub-Saharan Africa Global Value Chain Linkages

Author:: Heiwai Tang, Douglas Zhihua Zeng, and Albert Zeufack
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper studies the relationship between Asia’s economic engagements in Africa and individual African nations’ participation in global value chains (GVC) over the past two decades. We find that while overall exports from Africa to Asia are still highly concentrated in resource-intensive sectors, a few African countries have exploited the emerging opportunities to diversify export portfolios through exporting to Asia. Each African nation has a distinct main trade partner in Asia, in contrast to the common view that China has become the dominant trade partner of most African nations. Using a panel data set for 46 African countries over 16 years from 2000 and 2015, we find that exports to Asia are positively correlated with exports to the rest of the world, suggesting that in contrast to trade diversion, trade with Asia complements exports to other countries. Asian economic engagement in the continent is associated with countries’ exports “moving up the value chain”, as measured by the upstreamness index proposed by Antras et al. (2012). However, such process was accompanied by a reduction in the length of their production chains, implying that fewer stages and countries are now involved in the production of exported goods.
Topic:: Development, International Political Economy, Natural Resources, Partnerships, Exports, Trade, Global Value Chains, and Data
Political Geography:: Africa, Asia, and Global Focus

48. Urban Land Use Fragmentation and Human Wellbeing

Author:: Christine Bertram, Jan Goebel, Christian Krekel, and Katrin Rehdanz
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: We study how urban land use fragmentation affects the subjective wellbeing of city residents. Therefore, we calculate fragmentation metrics based on the European Urban Atlas for 15,000 households in the German Socio-Economic Panel. Using random and fixed effects specifications, we find that fragmentation has little impact on wellbeing when aggregating over all land use types. Looking at particular land use types, however, we find that wellbeing is positively affected by lower average degrees of soil sealing, larger shares of vegetation, and a more heterogeneous configuration of medium and low density urban fabric, especially in areas with above average population density.
Topic:: Agriculture, Health, Natural Resources, Urban, Land, and Farming
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

49. Saudi-Russia oil war is a game theory masterstroke

Author:: Antoine Halff
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: On the face of it, the idea of Saudi Arabia and Russia starting an oil price war in the middle of a global pandemic is as dumb as it gets. From a game theory perspective, it is a masterstroke. Analysts have called the breakdown of Opec+ and the lifting of the supply cuts that kept the oil market balanced in the last two years anything from a spectacular blunder to collective suicide. A new model of the oil market led by the inventors of mean-field game theory, Fields Medal laureate Pierre-Louis Lions and Jean Michel Lasry, suggests otherwise.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

50. Reconsidering US Sanctions Policy Amid the Coronavirus Crisis and the Oil Market Crash

Author:: Richard Nephew
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: For energy markets, the profound economic disruptions caused by the coronavirus have broken the arrangements of the OPEC+ oil exporters to limit production, as Russia and Saudi Arabia failed to agree on production caps. Oil prices plunged as producers ramped up output, made worse by the demand shock created by the spread of Covid-19 and resulting plunging global economic activity as countries have sought to cope with the widespread infection and mortality. The global economic shocks and humanitarian crises have left US sanctions policy in a deeply uncomfortable spot. The United States has prioritized using sanctions as a means of creating leverage for resolving myriad foreign policy crises, arguing in part that using sanctions is a more humane option than the alternatives. The United States has long argued that without sanctions, some problems would either get far worse, with their own unpleasant consequences (such as human rights violations, regional aggression, and acts of terrorism), or would be met by US military force instead. Though some would disagree with the notion that sanctions are ever moral or just, it is on this basis—taken in combination with the presence of humanitarian exceptions to sanctions—that US policymakers across the political spectrum have asserted that their approach is appropriate and consistent with humanitarian values.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Sanctions, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

51. A Saudi-U.S.-Russia Oil Deal Is Not a Good Idea

Author:: Christof Ruhl
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Oil markets are sending confusing signals at a time when more confusion is the last thing anyone needs. When Russia walked out on OPEC+ rather than contribute to more output cuts, Saudi Arabia turned on the crude taps. Whatever Riyadh’s intention, this “price war” was quickly made meaningless by the impact of the new coronavirus on global oil demand. The price collapse has been beyond anything anyone could have imagined. Now, storage room for crude is becoming scarce. Analysts warn darkly that plunging prices may threaten global economic stability. Equities follow the oil price news. Everyone seems to agree that prices should stop falling; and yet no one seems to argue that a very low oil price is exactly what the world’s economy needs to recover. The combination of price war and pandemic is also creating strange bedfellows. Some American shale producers are advocating that their country blocks Saudi oil imports, others want to talk to OPEC. President Donald Trump’s government has expressed an interest in cooperating on global oil supplies with Saudi Arabia and Russia; it’s nudging OPEC+ to reconvene, or an even wider group of producers to meet. Could we be witnessing the emergence of an unholy alliance of Saudi Arabia, Russia and the U.S., to “manage volatility,” and incidentally shore up the price of oil?
Topic:: Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, North America, and United States of America

52. 5 Reasons Why a Global Agreement to Prop Up Oil Prices Won’t Work

Author:: Jason Bordoff
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: In April 1986, U.S. Vice President George H.W. Bush traveled to Saudi Arabia with a request for King Fahd, the country’s ruler at the time: Please raise the price of oil. After falling around 60 percent over the course of a few months, cheap oil was becoming a “two-edged sword for America,” Bush explained. Consumers might enjoy low prices at the gas pump, but evaporating revenues for U.S. oil producers undermined America’s own oil supply, and thus its national security. That was the last time the White House publicly sought more expensive oil—until now. U.S. President Donald Trump has been pushing Saudi Arabia and Russia to cut output in the hopes that less crude on the market will raise oil prices, which have fallen by two-thirds since the start of the year. A low oil price threatens an already teetering U.S. shale oil sector with a wave of bankruptcies and job losses. All eyes are therefore on OPEC and its allies, which will meet by videoconference on Thursday to discuss the way forward—followed by an emergency meeting of G-20 energy ministers on Friday, where the United States will be represented as well. It was at the last meeting of OPEC and key non-OPEC producers in Vienna on March 6 that Russia refused to go along with a Saudi proposal for deeper production cuts. The subsequent surge in Saudi supply set off a vicious price war that has seen the price of oil briefly fall below $20 a barrel.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, and OPEC
Political Geography:: Middle East and Persian Gulf

53. Under a Cloud: The Future of Middle East Gas Demand

Author:: Robin Mills
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: During the early years of the 21st century, the Middle East emerged as a fast-growing center not just of natural gas production and exports but also of demand. Including Egypt, total growth in annual demand from 2000 to 2017 was greater than any region except Asia, a feat more surprising when considering the region’s relatively small population and economy. That’s about to change, however. After two decades of rapid expansion of natural gas consumption in the Middle East, growth should drop through 2035 due to four factors: improved efficiency, higher gas prices, slower economic growth, and alternative generation. Demand growth was driven by low, subsidized gas prices intended to spur economic growth, encourage energy-intensive industrialization, and share some benefits with the local population. But budget deficits and unsustainably rising domestic energy consumption have encouraged regional governments to cut subsidies and introduce efficiency policies, particularly since the fall in oil prices in late 2014. Industrial demand growth is also poised to fall as the Middle East’s key competitive advantage was its low energy and feedstock cost. The analysis undertaken in this paper to project future gas demand in the Middle East yields significantly lower estimates than forecasts by a number of international bodies (IEA, GECF, BP, ExxonMobil), especially post-2030.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Trade
Political Geography:: Middle East

54. Columbia Global Energy Dialogue: Natural Gas Flaring Workshop Summary

Author:: Marianne Kah
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The rapid expansion in tight oil production with its associated natural gas has made the United States the fourth largest source of flared gas in the world. The waste, emissions, and pollution caused by this flaring threatens not only the environment and human health but, ultimately, the license to operate for oil and natural gas companies. Responding effectively to the challenge of flaring requires technically and economically sound solutions that also enjoy political credibility and support. To be most credible, solutions for flaring need to be developed through open and transparent processes that provide for candid and constructive engagement by a diverse group of stakeholders. In January 2020, Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and the Energy Institute of the University of Texas at Austin gathered senior executives from the US oil and natural gas industry; current and former state government regulators; technical, market, and academic experts; and non-governmental organization (NGO) representatives with expertise in this topic for a workshop under the Chatham House Rule to discuss challenges and potential solutions to gas flaring, primarily in the Permian Basin. The gas flaring workshop focused on trends in gas flaring and greenhouse gas emissions in the United States, flaring and public policy, the disconnect between production growth and midstream infrastructure capacity, best practices and technological solutions for minimizing flaring, and regulatory and other solutions. Participants identified challenges to tackling flaring in the Permian, including poor data quality, the disconnect between the start of associated gas production and the availability of pipelines and other takeaway capacity, and the competition gas faces in the important Texas and California markets from lower-emission energy sources, and from coal in Texas. Participants also discussed potential solutions to these and other Permian flaring challenges.
Topic:: Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, Natural Resources, and Gas
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

55. The 2020 Oil Crash’s Unlikely Winner: Saudi Arabia

Author:: Jason Bordoff
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: With 4 billion people around the world under lockdown as the coronavirus pandemic grows, demand for gasoline, jet fuel, and other petroleum products is in freefall, as are oil prices. The price of a barrel of crude has been so low in the United States that sellers recently had to pay people to take it off their hands. As a result, oil-dependent economies are reeling. In the United States, the largest oil producer in the world, the number of rigs drilling for oil has plummeted 50 percent in just two months, almost 40 percent of oil and gas producers could be insolvent within the year, and 220,000 oil workers are projected to lose their jobs. Around the world, petrostates from Nigeria to Iraq to Kazakhstan are struggling and their currencies tanking. Some, like Venezuela, face an economic and social abyss. While 2020 will be remembered as a year of carnage for oil nations, however, at least one will most likely emerge from the pandemic stronger, both economically and geopolitically: Saudi Arabia.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Gas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations

56. The Impact of Covid-19 on LNG Supplies

Author:: Erin Blanton
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The global LNG market, like most commodities markets, has been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic. The ensuing demand collapse came after a warm Northern hemisphere winter that left the global market oversupplied, and now prices for spot LNG cargoes are expected to remain low well into 2021. As market watchers search for clues as to how and when demand may recover, the coronavirus could actually bring forward and intensify longer-term tightening of the LNG market by creating conditions that do not favor additional investments in LNG projects. Already, lockdowns have slowed construction on projects in the works and companies are delaying final investment decisions (FIDs) on potential LNG supply projects by several years. The global LNG market could face a supply shortfall in a few years, a scenario that seemed unlikely at the start of 2020 when proposed projects with 186 million tons of capacity were in the pipeline. The ability of the oil and gas industry to recover from the impacts of coronavirus will have a long-term effect on companies’ potential to secure the financing required for multibillion-dollar investments in LNG supply. In addition to the 359 million tons (MT) of existing global LNG supply, there is over 100 MT of supply under construction and expected online by 2025. Some 30 MT of that supply was expected over the next 18 months, but the timing now appears in doubt.[1] These factors will create additional pressure on the LNG industry, which was already facing difficult questions, including how natural gas will fit into global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and ongoing trade relations between the US and China.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Gas, Pandemic, COVID-19, and LNG
Political Geography:: Global Focus

57. A Near-Term to Net Zero Alternative to the Social Cost of Carbon for Setting Carbon Prices

Author:: Noah Kaufman, Peter Marsters, Alexander R. Barron, Wojciech Krawczyk, and Haewon McJeon
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The social cost of carbon (SCC) is commonly described and used as the optimal CO2 price. However, the wide range of SCC estimates provides limited practical assistance to policymakers setting specific CO2 prices. Here we describe an alternate near-term to net zero (NT2NZ) approach, estimating CO2 prices needed in the near term for consistency with a net-zero CO2 emissions target. This approach dovetails with the emissions-target-focused approach that frames climate policy discussions around the world, avoids uncertainties in estimates of climate damages and long-term decarbonization costs, offers transparency about sensitivities and enables the consideration of CO2 prices alongside a portfolio of policies. We estimate illustrative NT2NZ CO2 prices for the United States; for a 2050 net-zero CO2 emission target, prices are US$34 to US$64 per metric ton in 2025 and US$77 to US$124 in 2030. These results are most influenced by assumptions about complementary policies and oil prices.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

58. Reform Is in the Pipelines: PipeChina and the Restructuring of China’s Natural Gas Market

Author:: Erica Downs and Sheng Yan
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Beijing launched the most ambitious reform of China’s oil and natural gas industry in more than two decades with the establishment of the China Oil & Gas Piping Network Corporation (PipeChina) last December. The company is being developed from midstream assets—pipelines, liquified natural gas (LNG) import terminals, and storage facilities—and personnel transferred from China’s national oil companies (NOCs). Beijing expects that its goals of increasing China’s domestic and imported natural gas supplies and consumption will be more effectively advanced by having China’s midstream infrastructure owned and operated by a single company that provides fair and open access to its pipelines, LNG import terminals, and storage facilities instead of by three NOCs reluctant to grant third-party access to infrastructure.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Gas, and LNG
Political Geography:: China and Asia

59. Levelized Cost of Carbon Abatement: An Improved Cost-Assessment Methodology for a Net-Zero Emissions World

Author:: Julio Friedmann
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: New policies are needed to achieve the net-zero emissions required to address climate change. To succeed, these policies must lead directly to swift and profound abatement of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Policies that appear effective on the surface too often have little real impact or are costly compared to alternatives. Governments, investors, and decision makers require better tools focused on understanding the real emissions impacts and costs of policies and other measures in order to design the most effective policies required to create a net-zero world. This paper, from the Carbon Management Research Initiative at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, puts forward a levelized cost of carbon abatement, LCCA, an improved methodology for comparing technologies and policies based on the cost of carbon abatement. LCCA measures how much CO2 can be reduced by a specific investment or policy, taking into account relevant factors related to geography and specific asset. It calculates how much an investment or policy costs on the basis of dollars per ton of emissions reduced. Previous marginal or levelized cost methodologies that assess carbon reduction options often failed to consider the specific contexts that determine the real, all-in costs of a policy and the real, all-in impacts on emissions. These costs and impacts can vary depending on the contexts and details of geography, existing infrastructure, timing, and other factors. LCCA attempts to improve understanding of the real climate costs and benefits by including specific and local CO2 reductions in all estimations and consistently applying standard financial metrics that more accurately represent and compare costs. Investors and policy makers interested in climate, energy, and decarbonization must balance many competing options. The scenarios and analyses presented in this report can provide a foundation for wider analytical applications, and can help focus investments in innovation for hard-to-abate sectors, determine essential infrastructure required to facilitate market uptake, and estimate the value of grants in deployment. If the LCCA is not estimated, decision makers will not know the value of their policies and investments in terms of achieving greenhouse gas reductions and their carbon goals or the opportunity costs of taking one path over another. Finally, although carbon abatement costs are only one consideration of many in crafting climate policy (e.g., jobs, trade, domestic security), LCCA analysis will deploy efficient and effective approaches of GHG reduction and help avoid waste. This paper uses four scenarios to illustrate the discipline and value of LCCA analysis: first, the $/ton cost of using new solar power (utility or rooftop) to displace power-sector emissions in one market (California); second, the $/ton costs of new rooftop solar generation in several states with different solar resources, grid mixes, and policy environments; third, the $/ton cost of various technology options to decarbonize a range of primary iron and steel production methods; and fourth, the $/ton cost associated with sustainable aviation fuels and direct air capture and storage of CO2. The analysis provides insight into (a) the highest value for carbon reduction, (b) the relative discrete costs and benefits for decarbonization options, and (c) the potential shortfalls in policy or portfolio goals. In this context, the LCCA estimates for even simple cases can prove complicated depending on how emissions reductions are achieved. For example, our first scenario finds the costs of reducing emissions by replacing existing power generation in California with solar PV range from $60/ton (utility solar PV displacing natural gas power generation) to $300/ton (rooftop solar replacing a grid-average mix of generation) to more than $10,000/ton (any solar replacement of nuclear or hydropower). These large ranges are contingent on policy, investment, and/or technical decisions.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Green Technology, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

60. Engaging State-Owned Enterprises in Climate Action: Workshop Report

Author:: Philippe Benoit and Alex Clark
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: On February 27, 2020, the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) convened a workshop at the university’s Faculty House in New York City. The workshop brought together a combination of practitioners, researchers, executives, and public sector officials to discuss the role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in realizing collective climate action goals. Under the Chatham House Rule, the discussion focused around sectors (power generation, oil and gas) and relationships (government-SOE relations, and the role of public financial institutions), before concluding with a roundtable discussion drawing together the day’s proceedings and outlining the next steps. The following is a summary of that workshop.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, and Governance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

61. Electricity Oversupply: Maximizing Zero-Carbon Power to Accelerate the Transition from Fossil Fuels

Author:: Melissa Lott and Julio Friedmann
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Decarbonizing and growing the power sector are critical steps to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-efficient and timely manner. As more renewable energy enters the market, the higher penetration of solar and wind sources means periods of temporary overgeneration are likely to increase. There are signs that renewable electricity oversupply is now actively being sought in order to create opportunities to decarbonize other sectors or build export markets for products derived from that additional energy. This commentary discusses the role of electricity in deep decarbonization efforts, and how zero-carbon oversupplies might be deployed. Policy makers must assess what public benefits to prioritize under this recent phenomenon. This commentary examines four countries—Germany, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, and the United States—where excess generation is providing novel opportunities. The case of New Zealand is particularly illustrative of the choices countries and policy makers are facing. There, extra zero-carbon supply has suddenly appeared due to the closure of an aluminum smelter. The reduced load means this new abundance could be used to: expand the transmission infrastructure to feed electric loads elsewhere in the nation, decarbonize non-power sector applications (e.g., transportation or industry), produce and sell new products with near-zero carbon footprints (e.g., hydrogen, ammonia, chemicals, fuels), or operate machines that remove CO2 from the air and oceans.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Electricity, Fossil Fuels, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

62. ESG Investing and the Oil and Gas Industry: Moving Toward a Holistic Approach to Risk, Governance; Performance Measurement, Disclosure, and Results

Author:: Hon Xing Wong, Marianne Kah, and Erin Blanton
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: On September 17, 2020, Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) held a virtual workshop about environmental performance in the oil and gas industry. Investors, senior oil and gas industry executives, NGOs, and other stakeholders participated in this candid discussion about how environmental risks should be measured, disclosed, and incorporated into investment decisions.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, and NGOs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

63. Output-Based Rebates: An Alternative to Border Carbon Adjustments for Preserving US Competitiveness

Author:: Noah Kaufman, John Larsen, Ben King, and Peter Marsters
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Two linked and frequently raised concerns about putting a price on carbon dioxide emissions in the United States are whether such a tax would unintentionally advantage foreign competitors and, as a result, lead to increased emissions outside American borders. The tax could make American products more expensive than those made by companies in countries not imposing comparable climate regulations, which could lead to shifts in production overseas. Because a central aim of climate policy is to reduce global emissions, the “leakage” of production overseas would run counter to this goal. To avoid this outcome, carbon tax proposals commonly include a border carbon adjustment (BCA), which would impose the carbon tax on imported energy-intensive and trade-exposed products and provide a tax refund for exports of the same products. This commentary, part of a series of joint research on carbon tax policies by Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and Rhodium Group, highlights an alternative way to ensure that US firms remain on a level playing field with foreign competitors: output-based rebates (OBRs). While a BCA would focus on imports and exports, an OBR would instead compensate vulnerable US firms based on their production—a simpler process. Both BCAs and OBRs have their benefits and drawbacks, but nearly all carbon tax bills recently proposed in Congress included a BCA, and none included OBRs. This commentary reintroduces output-based rebates as an alternative to BCAs, analyzes US industries that could be compensated with OBRs, and estimates the costs of doing so. A border carbon adjustment is an appealing concept: simply apply the same carbon tax to foreign firms that is applied to domestic firms. The key advantage of OBRs is avoiding the most significant administrative hurdles of BCAs, including the complexities of determining the carbon content of foreign goods and providing foreign firms credit for climate regulations in their home countries. The proposed (but not passed) American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, commonly called the Waxman-Markey climate bill, included compensation for energy-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) US firms with OBRs. This commentary uses the Waxman-Markey proposal as a guidepost to analyze the potential scope and costs of OBRs today.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Carbon Tax, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

64. Building a New Grid without New Legislation: A Path to Revitalizing Federal Transmission Authorities

Author:: Avi Zevin, Sam Walsh, Justin Gundlach, and Isabel Carey
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Zero-carbon electricity will be the backbone of a net-zero economy, not only keeping the lights on in our homes and offices but also powering our transportation systems and industrial processes. Indeed, research indicates that in order to decarbonize the economy at a reasonable cost and within a reasonable time frame, we must rapidly decarbonize and grow the power sector. Electricity—how it is generated, moved along the transmission and distribution grids, and used—is already undergoing a rapid transformation in the United States. This transition has been supported over the last decade by steep cost declines for wind, solar, and battery technologies as well as cheap natural gas produced via hydraulic fracturing. But the transition to a net-zero power sector needs to accelerate to mitigate climate change, which is already impacting the health of people around the country and world. New long-distance, high-voltage transmission lines will be vital if the United States is to deploy enough renewable generation capacity to decarbonize the power sector and to integrate it cost-effectively, as well as electrify our economy in time to meet the targets established in the Paris Agreement. Because Congress may not take timely action to remove barriers to these power lines, policy makers and the incoming Biden administration should explore how the federal government could use existing authorities to foster new long-distance transmission line development. This paper seeks to explain steps that the federal government—particularly from within the US Department of Energy and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission—could take to facilitate development of a future grid that is capable of supporting a reliable, affordable, and increasingly zero-carbon power sector. Consistent with the mission of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA to advance smart, actionable, and evidence-based energy and climate solutions through research, education, and dialogue, the goal in publishing this paper in partnership with NYU School of Law’s Institute for Policy Integrity is to provide insights that are useful to policy makers in the format and time frame needed. We hope that this report contributes to supporting informed dialogue on potential tools for building a sustainable power sector in the United States.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Electricity, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

65. Strengthening Coordination in River Basin Governance in Southern Spain – Cooperation, Incentives and Persuasion

Author:: Nora Schütze, Andreas Thiel, Pilar Paneque, Jesús Vargas, and Rodrigo Vidaurre
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The Guadalquivir basin in Spain struggles with reducing agricultural water consumption to comply with water quantity provisions of the European Water Framework Directive. Improved cross-sectoral exchange, transparency, monitoring and revision of water rights are needed to address this challenge.
Topic:: Agriculture, Natural Resources, Water, and Transparency
Political Geography:: Europe and Spain

66. Reviving the Dying Giant: Addressing the Political Causes of Water Shortage in the Zayandeh Rud River, Iran

Author:: Ali Yousefi, Christian Knieper, and Claudia Pahl-Wostl
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The Zayandeh Rud, one of the main rivers in Iran, suffers from severe water scarcity caused by competition among different water users. Overcoming the dominance of supply-oriented water management, strengthening transparency and more collaborative governance would help address the water crisis.
Topic:: Politics, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

67. Forums, Fees and Data Flows: Coordinating Mining and Water Policy in Mongolia

Author:: Mirja Schoderer and Ines Dombrowsky
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Mineral and metal extraction threatens water quantity and quality in Mongolia. While good legal provisions for coordination exist, a lack of stakeholder involvement, data availability, human and financial capacity, and general transparency and accountability hinder their implementation.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Water, Accountability, Mining, and Transparency
Political Geography:: Mongolia and Asia

68. Coordination and Cooperation of Water Management, Nature Conservation and Open Space Development in the Emscher Restoration

Author:: Jenny Tröltzsch, Nadine Gerner, Franziska Meergans, Ulf Stein, and Robynne Sutcliffe
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: South Africa’s water legislation is recognised for its ambitious adoption of Integrated Water Resource Management. However, implementation is hindered by conflicting hierarchical and network-based governance styles and lack of coordination between western administration and traditional authority.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Water, and Governance
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

69. Overcoming Coordination Gaps Between Water, Energy and Agriculture: Future Paths to Water Protection in Weser-Ems

Author:: Franziska Meergans, Christina Aue, Christian Knieper, Sascha Kochendörfer, Andrea Lenschow, and Claudia Pahl-Wostl
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Intensive agriculture is characteristic for the region of Weser-Ems and the major source of nitrate pollution in groundwater. The analysis of coordination and cooperation shows that incoherent policies in the water, (bio)energy and agricultural sector have exacerbated the problem situation at hand.
Topic:: Agriculture, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

70. The Lebanese Crisis and the Mirage of Natural Gas

Author:: Benedetta Brossa
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Lebanon is teetering on the brink of collapse as mounting economic, political and geopolitical pressures put unprecedented stress on the country’s institutional – and deeply sectarianised – setup. In October 2019, when large scale anti-establishment protests erupted across the country, what has been described as the Lebanese “Ponzi scheme”,[1] a shady mechanism through which the country was able to attract continuous injections of foreign currency to sustain Lebanon’s financial system with artificially inflated interest rates, came to a breaking point. The value of the Lebanese lira dropped significantly, as have socio-economic conditions for large parts of the population. Then came the massive explosion in Beirut, the latest, severe blow to the country’s economy, already suffering from a dysfunctional political apparatus, the recent default on the state’s debt in March 2020 and the COVID-19 pandemic. The tragic explosion reignited popular anger. Lebanese citizens renovated their grievances against the pervasive corruption and sectarianism that has dominated Lebanon’s confessional system, leading the country to the brink of bankruptcy.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Gas, Economy, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Lebanon, and Mediterranean

71. The Struggle for the Eastern Mediterranean: Israel’s Role following the Berlin Summit on Libya

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Everything short of a military confrontation needs to be done, though, to deter Erdogan from establishing a barrier diagonally across the Mediterranean, barring Cyprus, Egypt and Israel from connecting their gas infrastructure to Greece and hence to Europe.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, Gas, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, and Mediterranean

72. Israel-Greece-Cyprus take on Turkey in the Mediterranean

Author:: Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Trilateral cooperation among Israel, Greece and Cyprus to build a natural gas subsea pipeline is setting the stage for more tensions with Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, Gas, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

73. Turmoil in South America and the Impact on Energy Markets

Author:: Lisa Viscidi
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: 2019 has been marked by widespread uprisings throughout Latin America. In the last few months, protests have erupted in Bolivia, Ecuador, and Colombia, while Argentina elected a new leader, Bolivia’s president resigned following growing tensions with his political opponents and the military, and Peru’s leader is facing a political crisis. Largely fuelled by anger over graft, economic disparity, and the rising cost of living, the resulting social unrest has led to uncertainty over the energy sector outlook. Continued political and social turbulence will likely contribute to stagnant oil and gas production growth in these countries. Conversely, Brazil and Guyana are on track to become the region’s largest oil producers. In Brazil, pre-salt reserves have been attracting foreign investment, although further market-friendly reforms will need to be made to sustain development. Guyana, for its part, is in line to become the region’s newest petrostate and will see explosive economic growth in the coming years. Despite its large reserves, Venezuela is excluded from this study because the country’s political and economic turmoil, coupled with US sanctions, make any increase in investment highly unlikely in the short term. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI-Eni Strategic Partnership, December 2019.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: South America and Latin America

74. How International Oil Companies Could Assist Greece to Achieve the Sustainable Development Goals: A Conversation Starter

Author:: Alexandra Sdoukou, Andrea Tornaritis, and Perrine Toledano
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: This policy paper wishes to be a timely contribution towards a fruitful debate among stakeholders; it urges International Oil Companies (IOCs) to examine how the critical Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for Greece can be integrated into their core business so that the oil and gas industry can contribute to the country’s sustainable growth.
Topic:: Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Europe, Greece, and Mediterranean

75. Innovative Financing Solutions for Community Support in the Context of Land Investments

Author:: Sam Szoke-Burke and Kaitlin Y. Cordes
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Communities affected by agricultural, forestry, and other resource investments urgently need increased funding for legal and technical support. Without support, communities risk losing access to critical land and resources, suffering human rights violations, or missing opportunities to benefit from investments. A lack of community support can also lead to conflict and challenges that are damaging for companies and host governments. Donors and support providers have found ways to finance support for communities, but such efforts can only extend so far. Promising new opportunities exist for filling the financing gap, yet they will require sustained efforts by a range of actors. This report presents a call to action to help communities secure the support they so crucially need. The report explores options for tapping new funding sources for community support. These include: Government marshaling of funding from companies and others, through taxes, fees, and penalties Basket funds, operated by independent, trusted entities and funded by contributions from multiple actors Market-based impact investments and social impact bonds Direct company funding Third party funding Other solutions for increasing funding or reducing costs, including crowdfunding, generating profits from social enterprises, affordable user fees or in-kind services, contingency and uplift fees, and court-ordered fee shifting. The report also presents overarching considerations for developing a new financing initiative. These include: the initiative’s likely cost, efficiency and financial sustainability, political complexity and obstacles, political economy implications, the importance of strong governance mechanisms, and the logistics required to link funding, communities and support providers.
Topic:: Agriculture, Human Rights, Natural Resources, Investment, and Land
Political Geography:: Global Focus

76. Linkages to the Mining Sector in Colombia

Author:: Columbia Centre on Sustainable Investment
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: At the request of the Colombian Government and with the support of GIZ, CCSI prepared a policy brief focused on linkages from the mining sector in Colombia. The brief gives an overview of existing regulatory requirements, government policies and company programs to foster economic and infrastructure linkages. Based on the findings, the brief provides suggestions for next steps if the government is to develop a more comprehensive linkage creation program.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Infrastructure, Governance, Regulation, and Mining
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

77. Supply and Demand in a Time of Changing Geopolitics and a Changing Climate

Author:: Aspen Institute
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: The Forum on Global Energy, Economy & Security is an annual conversation to discuss global energy markets, crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas supply and demand, midstream, shale development, geopolitics, energy security, and environmental topics. The forum features Aspen’s time-honored moderated roundtable discussion format which, while each session is introduced by brief presentations, stresses dialogue between participants rather than conference-style speaker presentations with question and answer only. The forum is enhanced by an informal atmosphere and a not-for-attribution rule that encourages new thinking, dissenting opinions, and frank discussion.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

78. Principled Governance of Shale Resources

Author:: Aspen Institute
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: Across the US there are a wide variety of opportunities to produce oil and natural gas. These opportunities have been greatly enhanced in recent years with the advent of directional drilling technology combined with hydraulic fracturing completion techniques, which have expanded the economically recoverable oil and natural gas reserves from shale resources. At the same time, the development and production of shale resources have posed real challenges and potential risks to public health and the environment. Considering both the benefits and the potential risks, every state must decide whether new oil and natural gas production should occur.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Science and Technology, Natural Resources, Governance, Gas, and Productivity
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

79. Infrastructure development in the Northeast: Hydropower, natural resources, legal and institutional frameworks and compliance

Author:: Manju Menon
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: In 2000, the central government declared Northeast India as India’s hydropower hub. Over 165 large dam projects were proposed to come up in the region. These projects were held as crucial to India’s energy and environmental security as well as the economic development of the country’s marginalised northeastern borderlands.However, nearly two decades on, this proposal to regulate the region's water resources remains unimplemented. In addition, the projects have generated a lot of public opposition in Arunachal Pradesh where most of these dams are supposed to be situated, and in the downstream Brahmaputra valley of Assam. This article will look into the government's hype and failure to construct hydropower dams in the Northeast region. It points to the need for a reflexive political decision on water resource management from the BJP-led governments in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and at the Centre.
Topic:: Development, Energy Policy, Government, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Asia

80. Resource Sovereignty: The Agenda for Africa’s Exit from the State Plunder

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: The modern global economy, essentially guarantees the continued expatriation of profits and natural assets from resource-rich but capital-poor countries, facilitating the enrichment of the global economic elite and Multinational Corporations (MNC), at the expense of developing countries. To elaborate on the themes of corporate plunder, resource nationalism and people-centered forms of resource management, Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research spoke with Gyekye Tanoh, head of the Political Economy Unit at the Third World Network-Africa based in Accra (Ghana).
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Natural Resources, Multinational Corporations, and Profit
Political Geography:: Global Focus

81. Brazil’s Amazon: The Wealth of the Earth Generates the Poverty of Humankind

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: As the world’s largest tropical forest, the wealthiest area in minerals, and the main biogenetic reserve on the planet, the Amazon is among the most sought-after territories by global capital. As the attack against the Amazon advances under Brazil’s right-wing Jair Bolsonaro, analyzes the advance of capital in the region, providing a analysis of the international and national scope of mining and agribusiness projects, agrarian conflicts, and the devastation of biodiversity, as well as the challenges facing everyday people.
Topic:: Poverty, Natural Resources, Inequality, and Wealth
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

82. Natural gas pricing GSA Bolivia: Brazil using virtual hub and expected monetary value instruments

Author:: Sergio M. Medinaceli and Jorge L. Gumucio
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:: The purpose of this paper is to show the shortcomings of incentive policies, specifically competitiveness, if they are designed without considering fundamentals of market development such as, level of demand, level of investment, and availability of alternative sources of supply. We focus on the analysis of the main market, financial, and economic variables in the Bolivia-Brazil Gas Supply Agreement, their relationship, development and dynamics through time and the current situation before the contract is renegotiated in 2019. Our analysis centers on the effective negotiation margin that Bolivia has calculated from the overall production costs of Bolivian gas (using EMV) vis a vis the opportunity cost of Brazil importing LNG. Using 10%-15% as discount rates and WTI prices between $50 and $60/bbl, the natural gas price result of EMV is between $ 4.96 and $ 7.99/MMbtu. Using the Bolivian tax incentive gas price should be between $2.29 and $5.16/MMbtu. Under the assumptions that WTI levels would be around $ 60/bbl, investors use a 15% discount rate to invest in Bolivia, incentive policy is in place, and the price of LNG is around $ 6.84/MMbtu; the opportunity cost of Brazil importing gas from Bolivia is $ -0.55/MMbtu. The same case without incentive policy will yield a $ -3.38/MMbtu. On the other hand, if the transport tariff is reduced the margin becomes positive under the assumption that the incentive policy is still in place. Therefore, as the price of LNG becomes more competitive through increase in supply (worldwide), Brazil will set its negotiation position around the price that they could import LNG on the short to medium term.
Topic:: Markets, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, Monetary Policy, Gas, Macroeconomics, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Brazil, Latin America, and Bolivia

83. Hybrid Institutions: Institutionalizing Practices in the Context of Extractive Expansion

Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Postgraduate Program on Sustainable Development and Social Inequalities in the Andean Region (trAndeS)
Abstract:: States face the challenge of developing institutions to govern the activities of social actors when an area under their control becomes the target of increased extractive activities. National and local public regulations safeguarding the environment, the assignment of extractive rights to individuals or companies, and handling of ensuing conflicts are developed in an institutional gray zone. This paper analyzes how informal institutions developed in early period become hybrid institutional entanglements that depend largely on configurations of power. It does so by looking at two cases in Peru: Water extraction in Ica, mostly by large companies and gold mining in Madre de Dios, mostly by small scale miners. Taken together, these cases show the institutions resulting from state governance of extractive activities depends heavily on the agency and political leverage of the state but also of other social actors.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Environment, Natural Resources, Water, Institutions, and Ecology
Political Geography:: Latin America and Peru

84. Eyes on U: Opportunities, Challenges, and Limits of Remote Sensing for Monitoring Uranium Mining and Milling

Author:: Grace Liu, Joseph Rodgers, Scott Milne, Margaret Rowland, Ben McIntosh, Mackenzie Best, Octave Lepinard, and Melissa Hanham
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:: The mining and milling of uranium does not generally receive the attention that the subject deserves. Yet this overlooked aspect of the nuclear fuel cycle can offer analysts important clues about a country’s fissile-material production. This, in turn, helps inform highly sensitive inquiries, such as estimates of arsenal size and potential for growth. Geospatial technology is uniquely helpful as a discovery and verification tool. The production of fissile material is often a closely held state secret; even for states that report production levels to the International Atomic Energy Agency, these numbers can be difficult to verify. Remote-sensing technology, such as satellite imagery paired with change-detection algorithms, can help pierce the veil of state secrecy and overcome physical barriers to inform analysts about this vital first step in the nuclear fuel cycle. Occasional Paper #44—the final installment in a four-part series that uses open-source remote-sensing data to identify and monitor uranium mining and milling activities—examines these new tools and technologies in detail to demonstrate how analysts use them to detect, estimate, or verify uranium production. It explores different remote-sensing techniques and their various advantages, including traditional optical imagery, multispectral and hyperspectral images, and thermal and near-infrared images. It also discusses machine-learning algorithms as another tool for analysts examining large quantities of geospatial information in a relatively short amount of time. Though these technologies hold great promise for WMD analysts, there are limitations to their use. CNS Occasional Paper #44 discusses these current and future limits, and concludes by calling for increased collaboration between the commercial satellite industry and analytical organizations and verification regimes alike, as a way f
Topic:: Natural Resources, Mining, Minerals, Uranium, and Milling
Political Geography:: Global Focus

85. Iran’s Threat to Saudi Critical Infrastructure: The Implications of U.S.-Iranian Escalation

Author:: Seth G. Jones, Danika Newlee, Nicholas Harrington, and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Tensions between Iran and the United States have heightened concerns about the threat to critical infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, including in Saudi Arabia. This report argues that while Saudi Arabia has vulnerabilities in its oil, desalination, electricity, SCADA, shipping, and other systems, Iran has thus far adopted a calibrated approach. Tehran has conducted irregular attacks to infrastructure using offensive cyber weapons, naval ships to impede oil tankers, and partners like the Houthis in Yemen. The United States should focus on deterring further Iranian escalation, refraining from actions that threaten the regime’s survival, and providing a political “off ramp” for Iran to de-escalate.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

86. The Era of the Gas Mega-Players

Author:: Nikos Tsafos
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Within 10 years, three exporters will tower over the global gas world: Russia, the United States, and Qatar. Other exporters—Norway, Australia, Canada—will remain big players, but their influence will be regional, not global. New entrants will emerge, and existing players will expand their presence, but no country will match the big three in scale, growth, and reach. China will meanwhile become the largest destination for gas, surpassing Japan in imports and closing in on Europe as a whole. These profound changes will rewire the gas system, making it more integrated and competitive. But the system may also allow these mega-players the opportunity to exercise market power, using levers at their disposal to influence prices and flows. Geopolitics might also weigh heavily as a possible driver of behavior or source of friction. The gas world will thus be pulled in three directions: more integration and competition, more efforts to exercise market power, and more geopolitics complementing and complicating market forces. The big question is which of these three competing forces will have a greater say in this new gas era.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Exports
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Middle East, North America, Qatar, and United States of America

87. The Subnational Political Resource Curse: Allocations, Internally Generated Revenue and Spending Priorities in Nigeria

Author:: Toluwanimi Segun
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:: Oil wealth comes with a caveat-depend on it excessively and be buffeted by oil market volatility. The 2014 oil price crash revealed that Nigeria did not heed this warning. The country’s expenditure forecasts are based on an assumed oil price so that the government was caught flatfooted when the crash began around June. Under duress, public officials eventually revealed how financially irresponsible governance was during the years of plenty: after a tussle with the President, State Governors shared oil profits stowed in a “rainy day” account called the Excess Crude Account (ECA) amongst themselves; they allegedly also hindered the growth of the country’s Sovereign Wealth Fund. It does not seem like those hard-won funds were spent in the public’s interest-reports detailing several state governments’ inability to fund public investments and pay public servants’ salaries have continued to arise into 2018.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, Oil, Natural Resources, Revenue Management, and Public Investment
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

88. Sustainability Implications of Nigeria's Water Use Patterns

Author:: Anointing Ogie Momoh
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:: Nigeria has significant renewable water resources; however, the current reality is that most of it is poorly utilized and managed, thus raising important sustainability questions. There are several concerns associated with the water situation in the country such as pollution, flooding, poor drainage infrastructure, etc. All these have dire water-poverty, socio-economic, health and livelihood implications for Nigerians. This discussion paper identifies the absence of a properly functioning regulatory regime in Nigeria’s Water Resources sector – with the ensuing pattern of open-access water use in the country – as a fundamental issue that needs to be addressed. It briefly maps out some specifics of the current situation within Nigeria’s Water Resources sector. Utilising a simple steady-state economic framework that shows the implications of open access use of natural resources, it goes on to explain the sustainability implications of the current water resource use-patterns in Nigeria. Drawing on the points raised, the paper concludes with a few high-level recommendations for water sustainability in Nigeria.
Topic:: Economics, Natural Resources, Water, Renewable Energy, Sustainability, and Public Management
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

89. The Sarayaku and the Inter-American System on Human Rights: Justice for the “Medio Dia” People and their Living Jungle

Author:: Mario Melo Cevallos
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Dejusticia
Abstract:: How was it possible for an indigenous people in the middle of the Amazon to protect their life and territory from oil exploitation? What was the response of the Government of Ecuador to the claims of the Sarayaku people? How is a human rights strategy developed at different geographical levels? In this text, Mario Melo Cevallos, lawyer of the Kichwa people of Sarayaku, addresses these questions by presenting his version of the history of resistance and mobilization of the indigenous people before the State plans to exploit the oil that was in the heart of the Amazon. From the jungle, through the national courts, to the inter-American human rights system, the author shows the different sources of political and legal mobilization used by the people. Based on the work of more than a decade that Melo has done with the descendants of the jaguar, the book combines anecdotal references with judicial decisions and social mobilizations to show the story behind one of the most important sentences of the Inter-American Court of Human Rights. Undoubtedly, the case of the Sarayaku people is a symbol for the other indigenous peoples of the Global South. Your experience, we hope, will serve as an example for all indigenous peoples who mobilize against the expansion of the extractive border over their territories.
Topic:: Human Rights, Oil, Natural Resources, Transitional Justice, and Exploitation
Political Geography:: Global South

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS