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102. Cyber Challenges and Foreign Influence in the Upcoming Knesset Elections
- Author:
- David Siman-Tov, Tamir Hayman, and Amos Hervitz
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- In advance of the forthcoming Knesset elections, there are heightened efforts to obstruct foreign interference. Yet while most preventive activity focuses on technological attacks on the voting process and information systems relevant to the campaign, the efforts to grapple with malign influence on internal political discourse through the spread of fake news, verbal incitement, and more are insufficient. What should Israel do to confront the threat in the most effective fashion?
- Topic:
- Security, Elections, Cybersecurity, and Foreign Interference
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
103. Resolving the Gas Dispute with Lebanon: First Exhaust Diplomatic Efforts
- Author:
- Orna Mizrahi and Yoram Schweitzer
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Hezbollah’s launch of UAVs at the Karish gas field was a cognitive action directed at Israel and the Lebanese, and sparked much public criticism in the Lebanese political establishment, which is eager to reach an arrangement on the gas issue. At this stage, Israel is right not to react to the UAVs militarily, and should continue to try to exhaust the diplomatic route with its northern neighbor to demarcate the maritime border, while recognizing that the Shiite organization will attempt again to challenge the balance of deterrence
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
104. Transportation and National Security
- Author:
- Yossi Daskal
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Congestion on the roads, traffic accidents, and rising levels of air pollution – transportation affects the health, economy, and well-being of the residents of Israeli Therefore, discussions of national security must include deliberations on improving transportation in Israel
- Topic:
- Security, Infrastructure, Public Policy, and Transportation
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
105. An Israeli National Guard?
- Author:
- Meir Elran
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The establishment of the Israeli Guard was announced recently, based on lessons learned from the May 2021 clashes between Arab and Jewish Israelis. Comprising police officers and volunteers, the new body’s main purpose will be to provide the Border Police with much-needed reinforcement. This is an essential, welcome measure, no less important than the quantitative and qualitative additions to the regular police. Yet no less essential is the establishment of a genuine National Guard, which will be able to provide effective assistance in all emergency situations and mass disasters
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Governance, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
106. Between ISIS and Arab Citizens of Israel
- Author:
- Yoram Schweitzer, Ephraim Lavie, and Meir Elran
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Although the three Israeli citizens who committed the terrorist attacks in Beersheba and Hadera were identified with ISIS, the organization has not gained a foothold within Israel’s Arab society. In general, the Arab sector objects to the ISIS ideology and violent measures. Israel must try to preserve this norm, building on the public denunciation of terror by Arab leaders and the further social and economic integration of the Arab society in the state
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, ISIS, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
107. Seven Years Later: Is the War in Yemen Nearly Over?
- Author:
- Yoel Guzansky and Inbal Nissim-Louvton
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- After seven years of war in Yemen and more than 400,000 people killed, there are signs of dramatic developments that might lead to a turning point, with important implications for the region – and for Israel
- Topic:
- Security, War, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
108. Stalemate in Talks with Iran on a Return to the Nuclear Agreement
- Author:
- Sima Shine and Eldad Shavit
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The talks in Vienna between the United States and Iran ended with the text of the agreement almost complete. Conclusion of the deal rests on political decisions in Washington and Tehran, mostly concerning the Iranian demand to remove the Revolutionary Guards from the State Department’s list of terror organizations. At this stage the chances of finalizing the deal are equal to the chances of the talks collapsing. How should Israel act at this sensitive time?
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
109. A Multi-Front Terror Campaign: How Should Israel Respond?
- Author:
- Kobi Michael and Udi Dekel
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- There is a tendency to see the recent terror attacks in Israel as a new wave of terror, destined, like any wave, to ebb following its limited duration. Alternatively, recent events might challenge this paradigm and reflect a multi-theater campaign led by Hamas, in cooperation with Islamic Jihad and with Iranian support. How should Israel act in face of the current situation?
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Counter-terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
110. Walking a Fine Line: Turkey’s Mediation between Russia and Ukraine, and Relations with the West
- Author:
- Remi Daniel and Gallia Lindenstrauss
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Turkey’s reaction to the Russian aggression in Ukraine was among the more moderate responses heard from NATO members. With an eye to the post-war situation, Ankara is trying to walk a tightrope and not overly provoke either side. What lies behind this Turkish policy, and is it viable?
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Conflict, and Mediation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Ukraine
111. Nonetheless, We Need to Maneuver
- Author:
- Gal Perl Finkel
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- “Defeat the enemy, defeat it quickly, in such a way that at the end of the day no one will ask who won and who lost.” These words of the former chief of staff continue to resonate today, and when voices emerge, arguing that the ground option should be a last resort, it is important to emphasize – only a combination of firepower, a defense system, and smart ground maneuvering can achieve a clear victory, one that we have not seen in a long time ago
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
112. Germany and the Ukraine Crisis: End of the Age of Illusions
- Author:
- Shimon Stein
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent shockwaves through Germany’s political-security approach of the last decades, and recent speeches in the Bundestag reflect the government’s intention to make system-wide changes in security orientation. Germany must also understand how it missed warning signs from Russia over the years, and formulate a clear policy that addresses the emerging worrisome trends
- Topic:
- Security, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and Germany
113. A Rising and Falling Alarm: A Strategy for a Joint Exercise in the Home Front Command
- Author:
- Liron Donnell
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The incoming chief of staff of the Home Front Command responds to an article by INSS researcher Meir Elran. She contends that contrary to the claim that the national home front exercise held this past November realized only part of its potential, the exercise in fact met all of its goals and saw many solid achievements. Moreover, the criticism of the event addressed issues that cannot be resolved in a single exercise
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
114. World economy in summer 2022: Inflation is curbing global growth
- Author:
- Klaus-Jurgen Gern, Ulrich Stolzenburg, Nils Sonnenberg, Stefan Kooths, and Jan Reents
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- In a situation with already elevated inflation, the war in Ukraine and the zero-covid policy in China have led to additional upward pressures on prices and reinforced the global supply chain problems. Real wages are declining in many countries, dampening personal consumption expenditures even though households are often able to draw from a substantial amount of extra savings accumulated during the pandemic. Given the widespread inflationary pressures, central banks have shifted towards a more restrictive monetary policy stance. Against this backdrop, the outlook for global growth has weakened. We forecast global growth of 3.0 percent in 2022 and 3.2 percent in 2023 (measured in terms of purchasing-power parities), representing a reduction by 0.5 and 0.4 percentage points for 2022 and 2023, respectively. The forecast is based on the assumption that commodity prices have peaked, which would reduce inflationary pressures considerably going forward. However, there is the risk that inflation proves to be more persistent than central banks expect. In such a case, central banks would need to step on the brakes more than assumed, with the risk of a recession in advanced economies and a pronounced deterioration in financial conditions in emerging markets
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Inflation, COVID-19, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
115. A Primer on the 2022 National Security Strategy
- Author:
- Peter Juul and Heba Malik
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- The 2022 National Security Strategy introduces new ideas on navigating strategic competition with China and Russia, investing at home, and a renewed focus on the fight against climate change.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, National Security, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
116. The Sky is the Limit: The Azerbaijan-Israel-Türkiye Trio and the Greater Middle East
- Author:
- Rusif Huseynov
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, the director of Azerbaijan's Topchubashov Center, Rusif Huseynov writes on the existing and potential security and economic cooperation between Israel and Azerbaijan, as well as the strategic link both countries share with Turkey.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Bilateral Relations, and Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Azerbaijan
117. Peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia: Who will economically win?
- Author:
- Emin Mammadov and Nigar Islamli
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- Following the recent September escalations along the Azerbaijan and Armenian border, in a way towards achieving a sustainable peace deal and long-lasting security in the Caucasus, the quadrilateral meeting in pragmatic terms is deemed to play a significant role in this vein putting an end to hostilities. The President of Azerbaijan and the Prime Minister of Armenia met in Prague on 6 October 2022 in the margins of the first European Political Community at the invitation of the President of the French Republic and the President of the European Council. Both sides reiterated their commitment to the Charter of the United Nations and the Alma Ata 1991 Declaration through which both recognize each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty which will act as a legal basis for the work of the border delimitation commissions.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Sovereignty, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan
118. Blowback from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
- Author:
- Sarah Cliffe, Leah Zamore, and James Traub
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- While the Ukrainian army and people continue to resist, the costs of Russia's invasion in human terms are mounting. As of March 15, the United Nations (UN) had verified 1,900 civilian casualties, including 726 deaths (fifty of them children), as Russia intensifies its assault on civilian targets, seizes the Zaporizhzhia nuclear site, lays siege to Mariupol which is without food, energy, or water in freezing temperatures, continues to threaten Kyiv, begins a push on Odesa and assaults Kharkiv with heavy and indiscriminate shelling.
- Topic:
- Security, War Crimes, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
119. Raising awareness about the increased threat of the criminal and terrorist use of cryptocurrencies
- Author:
- Nicolo Miotto
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Centre for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Criminal and terrorist organisations are increasingly using cryptocurrencies, thus leading to emerging threats in the cyberspace. Money-laundering, tax evasion, ransomware extortion, trading in illicit goods and services, purchasing of child sexual abuse material and terrorist financing are concerning criminal and terrorist activities involving the use of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin and Monero are the most used cryptocurrencies among both criminals and terrorists, however other cryptocurrencies such as Litecoin, Dash and Ethereum are being growingly used in criminal and terrorist financial activities. The anonymity/pseudo-anonymity and security characterising cryptocurrencies can challenge law enforcement investigative efforts aimed at countering criminal and terrorist activities. There has not been a widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies by terrorist and criminals yet, however this is likely to change in the next future.
- Topic:
- Security, Crime, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Cryptocurrencies, and Illicit Financial Flows
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
120. Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US-China tensions on the oil market
- Author:
- Yifei Cai, Valérie Mignon, and Jamel Saadaoui
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
- Abstract:
- This paper assesses the effects of US-China political tensions on the oil market. Relying on a quantitative measure of these relationships, we investigate how their dynamics impact oil demand, supply, and prices over various periods, starting from 1971 to 2019. To this end, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model as well as local projections and show that political tensions between the two countries pull down oil demand and raise supply at medium- and long-run horizons. Overall, our findings show that conflicting relationships between these two major players in the oil market may have crucial impacts, such as the development of new strategic partnerships.
- Topic:
- Security, Oil, Conflict, Rivalry, and Energy Crisis
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
121. Russian-Turkish Relations and Implications for U.S. Strategy and Operations
- Author:
- Hanna Notte and Chen Kane
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
- Abstract:
- Russia and Turkey’s complex relationship has significant implications for U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) strategic interests. The two states cooperate, deconflict, and compete in multiple theatres within Turkey’s extended neighborhood, which straddles United States Africa Command (USAFRICOM), United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), and United States European Command (USEUCOM) areas of responsibility (AORs). 1 Their bilateral strategic trade has created mutual dependencies and vulnerabilities across multiple sectors, such as natural gas, nuclear energy, and tourism. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has many implications for the Russia-Turkey relationship. While engaging actively with Russia and stoking fears that its commercial ties with Moscow could serve Russia’s evasion of Western sanctions, Turkey has also provided TB2 Bayraktar drones to Ukraine, invoked the Montreux Convention, and offered itself as a mediator on various operational issues in the Russia-Ukraine war. As a result of these steps, Turkey’s leverage over both Russia and NATO allies has increased since February 2022. From a U.S. perspective, the implications have been mixed as Turkey has translated its increased leverage into foreign policy steps that threaten to undermine U.S. interests and NATO cohesion. Turkey remains of significant importance to the United States in enabling its interests in the three aforementioned AORs, preventing third actors like China and Iran from operating in the “seams,” and generating an enhanced, unified, and credible NATO capability and capacity in response to Russian aggression. It follows that Turkey’s interplay with Russia in its extended neighborhood has far-reaching implications for the United States and NATO. This study aims to shed light on this relationship, its likely trajectory over the coming decade, its implications for U.S. strategic interests, and how the United States and NATO might shape the Russia- Turkey interplay to their advantage.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, North America, and United States of America
122. FSO Safer potential marine disaster: Yemen's environment worst nightmare
- Author:
- Jisham Nagi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- The conflict ongoing in Yemen distracts attention from environmental pollution incidents that have occurred or are likely to occur in Yemeni territories. The most urgent pollution case disturbing Yemen and its neighbouring coastal communities is that of the FSO Safer Oil Tanker, which was left without maintenance for years. If damaged, it could cause an unprecedented ecological and environmental disaster in the region. This paper explores the effects of the conflict on policy and action around FSO Safer and presents ways to mitigate a potential disaster.
- Topic:
- Security, Disaster Relief, Environment, and Disaster Management
- Political Geography:
- Yemen and Gulf Nations
123. War in Ukraine and food insecurity in Tunisia: Where is reform most needed?
- Author:
- Khouloud Ayari
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Since February 2022, food insecurity due to the war in Ukraine has become a key issue of public debate in Tunisia, shedding light on the country’s food dependence, given that it imports more than half of its needs. This paper analyzes the significant changes concerning agriculture and food in terms of dependency and sovereignty in the contemporary agricultural history of Tunisia.
- Topic:
- Security, Poverty, Food, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Tunisia
124. Understanding the Feminist Foreign Policy (FFP) - Why it is Important for South Asia-Pakistan?
- Author:
- Muhammad Saleem Mazhar and Naheed S. Goraya
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- Feminism is a mission for far-reaching transformation of society. It focuses on gendersensitive foreign policy agenda, shifting away from traditional approaches. Therefore, it can be considered more than just gender equality where the goal of gender justice dominates the idea. In 2014, Sweden proclaimed a Feminist Foreign Policy (FPP), followed by Canada in 2017, France and Luxembourg in 2019, and Mexico in 2020 which opened a path for many other countries to follow the trail. Swedish FFP talks about 3 Rs, i-e; Rights, Representation and Resources. The political framework of Feminist Foreign Policy revolves around the welfare of that marginalized faction of the society which has been facing all kinds of oppression emanating from forces of patriarchy, colonization, hetero-normativity, capitalism, racism, imperialism and militarism. The study intends to answer the primary question why it is important for the world to adopt FFP and will it even work in South Asia, particularly Pakistan where gender is one of the consolidating principles of the society. With these ideas’ backdrop, Swedish Feminist foreign policy gives us window of opportunity to think over the subject. However, the fact remains that this practice is different from one country to another, one region to another and one culture to another but the important is to be able to prove that it is beneficial for country’s concern to include women at the level of society because it is smart economics.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Human Rights, United Nations, Discrimination, and Feminism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and South Asia
125. The African-France Summit and an Overview of its Recommendations Since 1973
- Author:
- Fabien Sundjo
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- France’s earliest profit-making involvement in Africa in the business of buying and transporting slaves started in the 17th century when the local Indian population proved unable to work in plantations in America compared to black Africans. France’s interest in Africa reached its zenith in the 19th and early 20th centuries when France acquired a gigantic African empire. Though several reasons could explain the scramble for Africa by France, we present herein the three most important. First, the defeat of France in the 1870 Prussian war in which she lost influence and a reduction in her international ego. Second, the anxiety to implement Colbert’s mercantilist philosophy emphasized that any rising industrial power required to have both the source of raw materials and market extension under her control. Third and finally, as Europeans scrambled for Africa, France feared their traditional enemies could annex a remarkable share of the territory. Hence, from the outset, it was not the financial gains that many thoughts motivated France’s involvement in Africa but politics and national ego. It will only be later that France saw Africa as a cheap source of military manpower that could help balance demographic stagnation in France. This perception will later be reinforced by her experience in the two World wars. In this light, Iliffe (2007) holds that French colonial policy was characterized by the exploitation of rich resources from Africa. In the midst of all these benefits from colonization in Africa, Charles de Gaulle‘s decision to retain influence in Africa after decolonization in 1960 was driven by the need to persist with these benefits under neo-colonization. According to Abdurrahim (2014), in Africa, France uses a realist foreign policy in which states shape their foreign policies based on their national interests. To facilitate the implementation of this realist foreign policy, France will design the Franco-African summit that will cement France’s influence in her former colonies to date. Were France’s policies put in place through the Franco-African summits shaped to benefit France solely? This paper aims to present the Franco-African Summit and carry out a stocktake of France’s commitments through recommendations from the Franco-African Summit.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and France
126. Europe’s Area of Maritime Interest in Northeast Asia
- Author:
- Philip Shetler-Jones
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Participation in the monitoring of UN sanctions on North Korea is Europe’s most prominent operational contribution to Indo-Pacific security, but is also characterised by a fragmented, bilateral approach that contradicts the trajectory of recent European policies that strive for a more meaningful and coordinated investment in this area. A coordinated European presence in the region built around the sanctions monitoring task is within reach, and steps taken to achieve it would dramatically enhance the policy coherence and impact of European action on Northeast Asian security.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, European Union, and Maritime
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Asia, and North Korea
127. Can the West Afford to Let the World Go Hungry? Overcoming Challenges to Establishing a Humanitarian Corridor in the Black Sea
- Author:
- Isak Runarsson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- While economic interdependencies do not prevent war, witnessed most recently by Russia’s naked war of conquest in Ukraine, the costs of war in a globalised world spread far and wide. Russia has taken the world’s food markets hostage by blockading Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea. The resulting food price increases make a humanitarian crisis in the world’s poorest countries increasingly likely; this, in turn may lead to regime fragility and turmoil in the international system. The question of lifting the blockade by establishing a human corridor into the port of Odessa has recently been much discussed. There are challenges to any such effort, both strategic and operational. Yet a careful analysis reveals that the costs and risks of non-intervention are greater than the risks of intervening. An international naval force, co-led by the EU or its member states and Turkey is the best option for such a mission.
- Topic:
- Security, Food Security, Hunger, Maritime, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Black Sea
128. Vienna: A return to Ben-Gurion’s WW2 Dual Strategy?
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- It is time to revive the spirit of Ben-Gurion’s famous dictum from the days of WWII regarding the stance toward the British: “We will fight the war as if there were no White Paper, and we will fight the White Paper as if there were no war.” This makes sense concerning Israel’s dilemma towards the US in the context of the renewal of the JCPOA.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Israel
129. Ukraine could have Repercussions for Syrian Regime, Israel
- Author:
- Marta Furlan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The movement of Syrian fighters to Ukraine will significantly impact Syria’s internal dynamics, and Israel needs to monitor the situation closely.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
130. The “New Uzbekistan”: Turkey’s New Partner in the Pan-Turkist Organization of Turkic States
- Author:
- Hay Eytan Cohan Yanaroack
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Tashkent’s increasingly critical approach toward Russia and its deepening role in the Organization of Turkic States has positioned the country as Ankara’s most important bridgehead in Central Asia.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Turkey
131. The Roots of Israel’s Diplomatic Revolution
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The latest diplomatic moves demonstrate that despite recent events in Jerusalem, Israel has thwarted the Palestinian plan to force it into diplomatic isolation.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
132. The differences between Western and non-Western US allies in the Ukraine war
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- For mid-level regional powers, avoiding non-essential friction with a major power like Russia is seen as an imperative, particularly in a situation where consistent support from their US patron is by no means a given.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America
133. Japan and the War in Ukraine
- Author:
- Eyal Ben-Ari
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Two weeks after the war began, Japan announced that its new National Security Strategy scheduled to be published this year would recategorize Russia from “partner” to “security challenge,” thus placing it alongside China and North Korea.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Japan, China, Europe, and Asia
134. Israel Must Adjust its Ukraine Policy
- Author:
- Daniel Rakov
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The difficulties of the Russian military on the battlefield increase the possibility that in the coming weeks, Moscow will expand the fighting as part of preparations for a long-term military campaign.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
135. The Meeting Between Assad and Khameini: What was on the Table?
- Author:
- Marta Furlan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Syrian President Bashar al-Assad might have decided to cement his friendship with Tehran, fearing that Moscow’s capacity to invest in Syria’s reconstruction would be negatively affected. Assad may also try to play Iran against its Gulf rivals to draw resources from both.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Syria
136. What is Different in this Wave of Violence and What Should be Done About It?
- Author:
- Hillel Frisch
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- A static “dumb” security fence can hardly be effective against young and resourceful workers, many of whom work in construction and are experts in dismantling barriers and desperately want to work within the green line.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Counter-terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
137. A New Global Order? Israel’s Relations with China and Russia in Light of the War in Ukraine
- Author:
- Tuvia Gering and Daniel Rakov
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Despite their mutual support throughout the first hundred days of the war, Russia and China continue to have competing interests. Whereas Israel needs to be more responsive to Washington’s concerns about its two global competitors, it must also be mindful of populist calls to destabilize relations with Moscow and Beijing.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
138. Latest Killings in Iran May Indicate a Notable Shift in Israeli Strategy
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- A notable change of the rules of engagement has taken place, in which the totality of Iranian actions will now be opposed, also on Iranian soil. The strike on the UAV fleet at Kermanshah and the assassination of Colonel Khodai in Tehran were the first manifestations of this new approach.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Israel
139. What is the agenda for the Eastern Mediterranean?
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- A more coherent common foreign policy agenda is needed to enhance the strategic significance of the Athens-Jerusalem-Nicosia partnership.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean
140. Drug Policy in Colombia: The Road to a Just Regulation
- Author:
- Global Commission On Drug Policy
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Commission On Drug Policy
- Abstract:
- The position paper “Drug Policy in Colombia – The Road to a Just Regulation" presents the dynamics which have maintained Colombia hostage as the longest running, and most evident examples, of failed prohibitionist drug policies. The position paper explores the context leading to the 2016 Peace Agreement, as well as the shifts in political power that resulted in uneven and unsuccessful implementation efforts of the Agreement. It puts forward recommendations to support effective and humane drug policy reforms that enhance peace, health, security and development in Colombia.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, Law Enforcement, Regulation, and Drugs
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
141. British Pugwash Note on the Absence of Sole Purpose in NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept
- Author:
- Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
- Abstract:
- In June 2022 NATO members adopted an updated Strategic Concept (the preceding Concept having been adopted in 2010). There was reason to hope that in the updated Concept NATO members would envisage using nuclear weapons only in response to their first use by a nuclear-armed adversary. That reason lay in remarks made by President Biden when he was Barack Obama’s Vice-President. Notably in January 2017 he said: “Given our non-nuclear capacities and the nature of today´s threats, it is hard to envision a plausible scenario in which the first use of nuclear weapons by the United States would be necessary or would make sense; deterring, and, if necessary, retaliating against a nuclear attack should be the sole purpose of the US nuclear arsenal”. The adoption of Sole Purpose would be a useful nuclear risk reduction measure. Leaving open the option of using nuclear weapons in response to a non-nuclear attack on NATO entails the risk of nuclear escalation if the attacker is nuclear armed; and nuclear escalation entails the risk of global nuclear annihilation.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America
142. Russia’s threat against the Jewish Agency is a Bargaining Measure
- Author:
- Daniel Rakov
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel should prepare for a prolonged crisis. The Russians might want to delay or accelerate the legal process to exploit the elections period. The verdict will not constitute the final word. The government is advised to navigate the crisis behind the scenes: publicity might accelerate escalation.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Israel, and North America
143. Egypt as the Cornerstone of the New Regional Security Architecture
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The stability and orientation of the region’s most populous country, Egypt, remain crucial components of the newly emerging regional security architecture and its new strategic alignments.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Egypt, and MENA
144. Normalizing Relations Between Israel and the Arab World Continues Calmly in a Turbulent World
- Author:
- Hillel Frisch
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Arab publics are engrossed by the challenges that they face in their states.
- Topic:
- Security, Conflict, Violence, and Normalization
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Middle East
145. Ukraine War Distracts US from China, Legitimizes Nuclear Bombs
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is distracting the US from the Chinese threat and erodes the nuclear taboo.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Conflict, Rivalry, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, Asia, North America, and United States of America
146. Understanding Israeli-Palestinian two-state solution delusion
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The idea that a Jewish and a Palestinian state will coexist peacefully is widespread in contemporary academic and political circles but ignores the reality on the ground.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Nation Building
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
147. Israel Caves to Bad Maritime Deal
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- We should not forget that moderate Arab states are watching Israeli behavior, especially in the Gulf. Without determined and effective action, Israel’s allies in the region, wary of American withdrawal and fearful of Iran, will be reluctant to rely on Israel and could later move closer to Tehran.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Israel
148. The Libyan EEZ Challenge: Israel Should Reject Turkey’s Claims in the Eastern Mediterranean
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The delineation of the Libyan and Turkish Exclusive Economic Zones was and remains essential not only for Israel and Egypt but also for others in the region who seek to curtail Erdogan’s ambitions and shore up Egypt’s economic and political stability.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Mediterranean
149. How to respond to nuclear blackmail
- Author:
- Yagil Henkin and Alexander Grinberg
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Reliable deterrence is a vital interest of the West, and developing a strategy for reliable deterrence without escalation is also essential. The West could prevent escalation if it manages it carefully and with determination and credibility.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
150. An Enduring Contribution? Australia's Term on the United Nations Security Council (2013-2014)
- Author:
- Michael Bliss and Gary Quinlan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Australian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- As Australia took up its role as an elected member of the United Nations Security Council for 2013-2014, the challenges ahead were all too apparent. Dynamics between the five permanent members were particularly tense. Options for elected members to make a serious contribution appeared more limited than ever. The Council was unable to find consensus on how to address the most pressing threats to international peace and security. As political coordinator for Australia’s Security Council delegation across the Council’s 2013-2014 term, Michael Bliss had a unique insight into the workings of the Council, into Australia’s contributions, and into the relationships and diplomacy that underpinned the outcomes achieved. This monograph, published six years after Australia’s fifth Council term concluded, seeks to contextualise Australia’s work during its term, and to track how those contributions have endured and resonated in subsequent years. As a senior officer of Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, a specialist in multilateral affairs, an experienced diplomat and international lawyer, and an unrelenting optimist, Bliss is well placed to tell this recent story of Australian diplomacy. In doing so, he makes a compelling case that it is in Australia’s interests to seek to again “serve with distinction” as an elected member on the Security Council, in 2029-2030. Based on Australia’s experience in 2013-2014, Gary Quinlan AO, former Australian Ambassador and Permanent Representative of Australia to the United Nations (2009-2014) in his afterword asks the question of whether the Council has a future? Australia is a declared candidate for election for the 2029-2030 term but what kind of Council might we face and what are the dynamics that will affect our role?
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, United Nations, and UN Security Council
- Political Geography:
- Australia
151. Lessons Learned from the COVID-19 Pandemic: Physician Safety and Coverage in Lebanon
- Author:
- Nadim El Jamal, Taghrid Hajjali, and Elie Al-Chaer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Similar to other countries, Lebanon experienced the challenges that the COVID-19 pandemic imposed on its healthcare system. Physicians, among other healthcare workers, felt the large toll of the pandemic. The growing number of physicians infected with the coronavirus has uncovered gaps in the policies and laws meant to protect and ensure physician safety. These include gaps in physician coverage for healthcare, disability, and death, in addition to particular vulnerabilities of trainee physicians, along with the absence of specific laws, strategies, and agencies to ensure the safety of the healthcare work environment. This paper highlights these gaps and proposes solutions to address them.
- Topic:
- Security, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
152. Water Politics in Libya: A Crisis of Management, not Scarcity
- Author:
- Malak Altaeb
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Libya is one of the driest countries in the world. The Great Man-Made River Project, touted by Qaddhafi as a solution to take advantage of Libya’s plentiful natural resources, serves as a case study in social and institutional engineering. This article discusses the defining characteristics and legacies of hydro-politics under Qaddhafi, presents some of the new issues that have emerged since regime change in 2011, and offers some ways forward for water policy in Libya.
- Topic:
- Security, Natural Resources, Water, and Resource Management
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Libya
153. Partial Normalization: Morocco’s Balancing Act
- Author:
- Yasmina Abouzzohour
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Following the UAE, and Bahrain, and one month before Sudan, Morocco became the third country in the MENA region to normalize ties with Israel in 2020. In exchange for resuming ties with Tel Aviv, Rabat benefited from important security and financial deals with the United States and ensured the recognition of the kingdom’s sovereignty over Western Sahara. This paper explores the domestic, regional, and international politics that determined the kingdom’s approach and assesses how the kingdom has navigated competing pressures.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Morocco
154. Media and Securitisation: The Influence on Perception
- Author:
- Alberto Tagliapietra
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The relationship between media and perception is essential to securitisation processes. Through the adoption of specific wordings and narratives the media can and do influence the public perception of a given phenomenon as a challenge or even an existential threat to public security, economic prosperity, social stability or cultural homogeneity. Media narratives are exploited by political actors, which promote and/or instrumentalise securitised issues in order to present themselves as the only actors able to provide a solution. During the years of the “migration crisis”, many media outlets in Europe created a perception of the magnitude of migration phenomenon that had little basis in empirical data while also portraying it as inherently threatening. The securitisation to which migration was subjected led to a much worsened perception of migrants by the public and consequently to a greater political appeal of parties that made anti-immigration the core of their public discourse.
- Topic:
- Security, Migration, Mass Media, and Public Opinion
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
155. Unlocking European Defence. In Search of the Long Overdue Paradigm Shift
- Author:
- Arnout Molenaar
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The European Union’s range of new EU security and defence initiatives are ground-breaking, but they can only deliver on their potential if member states shift the paradigm towards truly thinking, acting and working together as Europeans, based on a strategic consensus regarding the future of European defence in the changing global context. The new Strategic Compass, to be adopted by the Council in early 2022, provides a framework to develop such a shared vision. It should help to operationalise the EU’s strategic autonomy in concrete terms, in mutual reinforcement and coherence with NATO, while seizing the opportunity to strike a new transatlantic bargain with the Biden Administration. In this context, the Union should agree on concrete steps forward to become a more active security provider abroad, reinforce its resilience and protection at home, enhance its operational readiness for different scenarios, and develop new capabilities through deeper cooperation while stepping up its cooperation with partners.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe
156. Russia or the West – Which Should Jerusalem Choose?
- Author:
- Daniel Rakov
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The Israeli government has not publicly expressed a position regarding the gathering of Russian forces on the Ukrainian border. Still, a renewed war between Russia and Ukraine could make it challenging to choose between its commitment to its Western allies and its important relationship with Russia.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Israel
157. Hamas takeover of Gaza killed the two-state solution
- Author:
- Hillel Frisch
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The American pressure against the Atarot housing project north of Jerusalem was likely meant to maintain the possibility of a two-state solution.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and State Building
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
158. Is it time for Biden to demonstrate force with Iran?
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The withdrawal of American forces from the Middle East may have strategic merits. The rationale for a contracted global military seems to match what American strategists have termed “offshore balancing,” which means that the U.S. holds fewer overseas bases but maintains its military capability to intervene in distant regions when necessary.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Strategic Interests, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
159. Iran talks are likely going nowhere
- Author:
- Alexander Grinberg
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Iran uses uranium enrichment as leverage on the EU and US to get concessions.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Conflict, Uranium, and Nuclear Energy
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
160. The Nuclear Talks in Vienna: Biden’s Legacy at Stake
- Author:
- Eytan Gilboa
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- From Tehran’s perspective, the goals are lifting the sanctions and securing immunity from military attacks.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
161. Securing the Future of the Israel-US Special Relationship
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- With the help of American Jewry, a sturdy foundation of support for Israel-US ties needs to be rebuilt based upon traditional bipartisan commitment. This will enable Israel to engage effectively with the Biden Administration and Congress on the Iranian challenge.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Polarization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
162. Israel Must Actively Oppose US Return to the JCPOA
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar and Omer Dostri
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Even if Israel’s ability to influence US decision-making is limited, it is a serious mistake to downplay Israel’s opposition to the dangerous nuclear accord.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
163. The Egypt-Israel Common Strategic Agenda
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Egyptian and Israeli interests converge in Gaza, Sinai, Syria, and Libya, and regarding Turkey and other regional matters
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt
164. What does the Deraa surrender mean for Iran and Russia in Syria?
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- In the southwest, the outside powers of relevance are Iran and Russia. The arrangement in place from July 2018 until now was the product of an uneasy standoff between them.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, Peace, and Ceasefire
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Syria
165. The Hong Kong National Security Law and its Implications for Middle Powers
- Author:
- Tuvia Gering
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- In May 2021, an Israeli company became the first documented case of China imposing free expression limitations on a foreign business under the 2020 Hong Kong National Security Law. Democracies must ensure that their citizens are not prosecuted for exercising their basic rights.
- Topic:
- Security, Democracy, Freedom of Expression, and Freedom
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Israel, and Asia
166. What’s Next, After the Withdrawal from Afghanistan?
- Author:
- Yaakov Amidror
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The Middle East is doomed to remain difficult, brutal, violent, repressive, and culturally Islamist. Regional powers, including Israel, must come together, to guarantee stability.
- Topic:
- Security, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Political stability, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
167. The Implications of the Fall of Kabul
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The region, and Israel, need the ASEAN model of cooperation.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
168. The Road to Natanz Runs Through Beirut
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- One of the issues that must be dealt with before the Iranian nuclear program is removing the threat of Hezbollah missiles.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Israel
169. National Security Policy Recommendations for Israel’s 36th Government
- Author:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Eleven policy prescriptions for Israel’s new government, reflecting the insights of JISS fellows who jointly surveyed the challenges Israel’s leaders are facing and crafted these diplomatic and defense policy emphases.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
170. There is No Clear-Cut Solution for Gaza
- Author:
- Yaakov Amidror
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- There are plenty of nice plans for Gaza, but none that will change the core truth: Hamas will continue to seek Israel’s destruction, and Israel will continue to defend itself.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
171. Nine lessons for Israel following Gaza operation
- Author:
- Aiman Mansour and Micky Aharonson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Don’t be blackmailed, don’t expect Hamas to keep its promises, and take initiative.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
172. The Costs of United States’ Post-9/11 “Security Assistance”: How Counterterrorism Intensified Conflict in Burkina Faso and Around the World
- Author:
- Stephanie Savell
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
- Abstract:
- United States “security assistance” exports a militarized counterterrorism model to dozens of countries through money, training, and weapons. This model comes with dangerous costs. The narrative, tactics, funding, and institutional supports of the U.S. post-9/11 wars fuel repression and corruption, and escalate cycles of violence. This paper delves into the current conflict in Burkina Faso as an illustrative case study of how the U.S. counterterrorism model has caused more, not less, instability and violence. Despite the relatively low levels of terrorism assessed in Burkina Faso at the time, the United States laid the groundwork for increased militarism in the region when it began providing security assistance to the country in 2009. Today, Burkina Faso is enveloped in a spiraling conflict involving government forces, state-sponsored militias, and militant groups, and civilians are paying the price. Militant groups have strengthened and seized territory, ethnic tensions have skyrocketed, thousands of Burkinabe have been killed and over one million displaced. A Burkina-based human rights group has warned that the government’s ethnic killings may lead to the “next Rwanda.”
- Topic:
- Security, Ethnic Conflict, Counter-terrorism, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States of America, and Burkina Faso
173. Biotechnology and Security Threats: National Responses and Prospects for International Cooperation
- Author:
- Hanzhi Yu and Yang Xue
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Cutting-edge biotechnology, mainly consisting of gene editing, gene drives and gene synthesis, is developing and changing rapidly. It acts as a double-edged sword, bringing benefits to human development in many fields, such as medical treatment and agriculture, while also posing serious threats to biological security, human existence and development. For example, the case of He Jiankui, a young scholar from the Southern University of Science and Technology of China who created gene-edited babies, triggered a global controversy and debate on biosafety in the winter of 2018. This paper argues that the problems China faces do not only exist in China — they are in fact common problems faced by all countries in the world. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the world is paying close attention to global health governance and biosafety issues. There is a window of opportunity for global collaboration to deal with biosecurity threats.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, and Biotechnology
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
174. A Canadian Framework for Data Reuse
- Author:
- Michel Girard
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Although Canada is making progress in protecting consumers against data misuse, it needs to turn its attention to enabling data reuse. The current practices and tools in place are not conducive for data sharing. This creates a significant hurdle for data scientists and statisticians as they cannot train algorithms without large data inputs. A national framework for data reuse is needed to manage risks associated with data sharing. It should include sector-based data strategies, the certification of new classes of data professionals across data value chains, common interoperability and governance standards, and a safe and secure data transmission infrastructure. As common data-sharing spaces are needed for data reuse to occur, there is an opportunity to experiment with different data-sharing models. A national data reuse framework is essential for Canada to assert its data sovereignty and become a digital society. This is why the federal government has a critical role to play.
- Topic:
- Security, Privacy, Data, and Digital Policy
- Political Geography:
- Canada and North America
175. Quantifying Trade Secret Theft: Policy Implications
- Author:
- Dan Ciuriak and Maria Ptashkina
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Trade secret theft is estimated to cost hundreds of billions of dollars annually. As a result, governments worldwide are developing legislation to mitigate these losses. This paper looks at the growing importance of trade secrets globally, corporations’ responsibilities to protect their trade secrets and how trade secret theft occurs (for example, through cybertheft or personnel movement between companies). The authors argue that protecting intellectual property rights must not come at the expense of the innovation-intensive economy.
- Topic:
- Security, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Trade, and Trade Policy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
176. Breaking the Israel-Palestine Status Quo
- Author:
- Zaha Hassan, Daniel Levy, Hallaamal Keir, and Marwan Muasher
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- A new U.S. approach should prioritize protecting the rights and human security of Palestinians and Israelis over maintaining a peace process and attempting short-term fixes. The authors of this paper identified four overarching areas of focus: (1) prioritize rights and protect people, (2) roll back the Trump administration’s actions and reassert international law, (3) clarify expectations for Palestinians and Israelis, and (4) support new multilateral approaches and accountability.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America
177. Evolving UAE Military and Foreign Security Cooperation: Path Toward Military Professionalism
- Author:
- Melissa Dalton and Hijab Shah
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The UAE has an opportunity to professionalize the military by building its strategic planning and force development capabilities and by committing to international principles of professional military conduct and greater transparency and accountability. After two decades of concerted investment and operational experience, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) armed forces, dubbed “Little Sparta,” are now one of the leading militaries in the region. With approximately 63,000 active uniformed personnel for a population of 9.9 million (only 1.2 million of which are Emirati), allegedly augmented by foreign auxiliary and mercenary forces, the UAE has gained global attention for its role in countering Iran and violent extremist networks and for interventions in Yemen and Libya. It is one of the United States’ closest military partners in the Middle East. American scholar Kenneth Pollack assesses that, taken as a whole, the UAE’s military is the most capable among the Arab states, while there may be variance across the force.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Military Affairs, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- United Arab Emirates, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
178. Operation Condor, The War on Drugs, and Counterinsurgency in the Golden Triangle (1977-1983)
- Author:
- Adela Cedillo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- In the late 1960s, the Mexican government launched a series of counternarcotics campaigns characterized by the militarization of drug production zones, particularly in the northwestern region—the so-called Golden Triangle, epicenter of both production and trafficking of marijuana and opium poppy since the 1930s. Operations Canador (1969–1975) and Trizo (1976) served as a laboratory for methods to curb drug production, ranging from harassment of drug growers to the aerial defoliation of illicit crops. Operation Condor (1977–1988) combined and enhanced these strategies, wreaking havoc on communities of alleged drug growers, but without entirely disrupting the drug industry. This paper explores the role of the US government in the militarization of Mexico’s anti-drug policy, underscoring how the ruling party (the Institutional Revolutionary Party, PRI) took advantage of this shift to tackle domestic issues and reassert its hegemony. I argue that Operation Condor functioned as a counterinsurgency campaign oriented to thwart both social and armed movements, eliminate competitors in the narcotics market, and reorganize the drug industry to protect successful drug lords. Operation Condor also caused the decentralization of the drug industry from the northwest and created a new clientelistic pact between drug lords and national security agencies, such as the Federal Security Directorate (DFS), the Office of the Attorney General of Mexico–Federal Judicial Police (PGR-PJF), and the Secretariat of National Defense (SEDENA), which benefited from drug proceeds. Finally, the de facto state of siege imposed in the Golden Triangle produced thousands of victims of harassment, torture, rape, murder, forced-disappearance, and displacement; massive human rights abuses that authorities either concealed or denied.
- Topic:
- Security, Corruption, Human Rights, Governance, Social Movement, History, Borders, and Violence
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America
179. Violence in Post-Revolutionary Mexico
- Author:
- Gema Kloppe-Santamaría
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Despite the formal end of civil war and armed conflict, Mexico continued to experience significant levels of violence during the 1930s and 1940s. This period has traditionally been associated with the process of pacification, institutionalization, and centralization of power that enabled the consolidation of rule in post-revolutionary Mexico; a process epitomized by the marked national decline in levels of homicide that began during the 1940s and continued throughout the second half of the twentieth-century. However, the dynamics of coercion and resistance that characterized state-society relations during this period, particularly at the regional and local levels, reveal that violence pervaded all aspects of society and that it was perpetrated by a multiplicity of actors, including vigilantes, pistoleros, private militias, lynch mobs, military, police, and others, including violent entrepreneurs. Violence was used both as a means to contest the legitimacy of the post-revolutionary state project and as an instrument of control and coercion on behalf of political elites and local power brokers. Conversely, violence superseded the realm of traditional politics and constituted a central force shaping Mexican society. Violence against women in both the public and private sphere, violence driven by economic interests, and violence incurred in citizens’ attempts to control crime and social transgressions, reveal that citizens—and not only state actors—contributed to the reproduction of violence. Although violence in post-revolutionary Mexico was neither centralized nor exercised in a top-down manner, impunity and collusion between criminal and political elements were central to the production and perpetuation of violence, both within the Mexican state and within civil society. When examined in light of these two decades of the post-revolutionary period, the character and levels of violence in contemporary Mexico appear less as an aberration and more as the latest expression of a longer historical trajectory, uneven and nonlinear, of decentralized, multifaceted, and multi-actor forms of violence.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, Culture, Peacekeeping, Democracy, Conflict, and Violence
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, North America, and Mexico
180. The Vision Group on U.S.-ROK Relations: Insights and Recommendations
- Author:
- KEI
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- The Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI), with the generous support of the Korea Foundation, organized six “Vision Group” roundtable conversations with leading American scholars and commentators to discuss the United States’ relationship with the Republic of Korea. The first was held in December 2019, the last in November 2020. The intent was to consider the future of relations during a time of change. The Vision Group comprised a wide range of expertise and opinion. This record conveys some of the insights and recommendations that arose during the conversations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America
181. Adapting the U.S.-South Korea Alliance to an Indo-Pacific Regional Architecture: Challenges and Prospects
- Author:
- Andrew Yeo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- This paper addresses the U.S.-South Korea alliance in the context of Asia’s evolving security architecture. At the crux of the issue is the Biden administration’s desire to uphold the rules-based international order by reinforcing the network of inter-Asia alliances and multilateral institutions, on one hand, and the Moon government’s relative reluctance to deepen and expand security ties linked to an Indo-Pacific strategy that counter-balances China, on the other hand. Leveraging the existing alliance relationship, the Biden administration should encourage Seoul to coordinate with other like-minded countries committed to sustaining a rules-based regional order while assisting Seoul in mitigating potential strategic vulnerabilities. Conversely, as a middle power, South Korea must not shy away from the region’s security architecture, but instead actively coordinate with other actors in shaping the region’s strategic environment. By working in concert with other countries in the Indo-Pacific, Seoul can reduce its geopolitical vulnerability while advancing its national and regional interests.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America
182. Advancing South Korea-Southeast Asia Security Ties: Between Opportunities and Challenges
- Author:
- Prashanth Parameswaran
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s New Southern Policy (NSP)—the most recent effort by Seoul to boost relations with Southeast Asian countries and India and diversify its relationships beyond four major powers: China, Japan, Russia, and the United States. Yet, at the same time, less of a focus has been placed on how to advance the security aspect of the NSP despite some of the inroads that have been made, as well as the underlying convergences of concerns and interests between South Korea and the countries of Southeast Asia. This paper addresses this gap by providing insights into South Korea’s security ties with Southeast Asia, based on a close analysis of South Korean and Southeast Asian accounts as well as conversations with officials and scholars on both sides. It makes three arguments. First, while South Korea’s efforts to advance security ties with Southeast Asian states as well as with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as a bloc may have been met with mixed results so far, the inroads made still deserve attention and are rooted in several domestic, regional, and global drivers. Second, though these security ties create opportunities for Seoul’s relations with ASEAN countries, they also pose challenges that should not be ignored. Third and finally, advancing security relations between South Korea and Southeast Asian countries will require actions not just on the part of Seoul or ASEAN nations, but also other actors.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and Southeast Asia
183. 2021 Report on American Attitudes towards the U.S.-ROK Alliance and North Korea Policy
- Author:
- Troy Stangarone and Juni Kim
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- KEI’s 2021 Report on American Attitudes on the U.S.-ROK Alliance and North Korea Policy summarizes results from a survey commissioned by KEI and conducted by YouGov on May 6th to May 10th, 2021 in advance of the U.S.-ROK summit on May 21st, 2021. The survey asked Americans their views on the U.S.-South Korea relationship, North Korea policy, and the U.S.’ role in the East Asian region.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America
184. Both hard and soft corporate practices construct and secure industrial mining operations: The case of Colombia
- Author:
- Line Jespersgaard Jakobsen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- This DIIS Working Paper elaborates how local consent to a huge industrial mining complex, including a port and a 150 km railway built in the 1980’s on indigenous arid lands, were created. Showing how both ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ security technologies were effective in preparing the complex, constructing the necessary infrastructure and securing the operation, the paper at the same time illustrates how corporate security practices have changed over time in the northern part of Colombia. The paper is based on extended ethnographic fieldwork in La Guajira, Colombia, carried out through 2018 and 2019 as well as historical written documents.
- Topic:
- Security, Environment, Oil, Poverty, Natural Resources, Non State Actors, Gas, Capitalism, Inequality, Economy, Conflict, Ethnography, Violence, Investment, Justice, Land Rights, and Minerals
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, South America, and Latin America
185. Opportunities for Danish stabilisation policy to engage with climate- and livelihood-related conflict: New approaches to fragility in the Horn of Africa and Sahel
- Author:
- Peer Schouten
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The Horn of Africa and the Sahel are among the most fragile regions in the world: poor, lacking basic infrastructure and state presence across much of their respective territories, and both form hotbeds of conflict and political instability compounded by climate change. This DIIS Working Paper focuses on identifying evolving notions of fragility that could strengthen Danish stabilisation efforts in the Horn and Sahel. It foregrounds notions of fragility that move away from a focus on strong state institutions towards the adaptive capacities of populations in the hinterlands of the Horn and the Sahel to deal with conflict and climate variability. The paper gives an overview of this rapidly evolving field and distils key insights, challenges and future options by exploring the question, how can we support people in the Sahel and Horn to re-establish their responsibility for their respective territories and the management of their natural resources? The paper addresses this question by exploring the implications of recent climate change and livelihoods research on how we approach fragility and, by extension, stabilisation. On the basis of such research, the Working Paper advocates a move away from a sector-based understanding of fragility towards a way of working that is more in line with contextual realities, alongside the ‘comprehensive approach’ to stabilisation that Denmark promotes. The key message is that, programmatically, Danish stabilisation efforts across both regions could benefit from a more explicit focus on supporting the variability that dominant livelihood strategies require and that need to be considered if sustainable security and development outcomes are to be achieved. Failing to do this will only serve to marginalise key communities and may drive them further into the arms of radical groups.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Climate Change, Democratization, Development, Environment, Radicalization, Fragile States, Violence, Peace, and Justice
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Denmark, and Horn of Africa
186. What threatens NATO – and what members can do? The case of Norway and Poland
- Author:
- Jakub M. Godzimirski
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- This research paper examines the critical external and internal challenges that faced NATO at its 70th anniversary, and how the policies of two members – Norway and Poland – can influence the internal cohesion of the Alliance and thus its ability to provide security to all its members. The survival of NATO as a viable security actor will depend on its capacity to maintain internal cohesion, a crucial factor influencing its ability to address external risks, challenges and threats in the increasingly turbulent international environment. This study places the debate in the broader context of discussion on alliance survivability in general, maps the external and internal challenges facing the Alliance after seven decades of its existence, and examines possible risks that the policies of Norway and Poland may pose to NATO’s internal cohesion and thus its ability to react to external challenges.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Norway, and Poland
187. Resilience in the age of crises
- Author:
- Mathilde Tomine Eriskdatter Giske
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- This research paper examines the concept 'resilience' as a response to the constantly changing environments and turbulence of the world. While resilience is used by several international organisations and nation states, there is still a lack of consensus regarding what the concept really means – it denotes both resisting change and being willing to adapt at the same time. This paper offers some clarity and argues that a temporal dimension is needed when applying the concept of resilience.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, International Organization, European Union, Pandemic, Resilience, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
188. Cooperation in Tertiary Prevention of Islamist Extremism
- Author:
- Sofia Koller
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- In tertiary prevention of Islamist extremism, civil society and governmental exit programs support individuals (and their families) who wish to disengage from violent extremist groups and distance themselves from extremist ideologies. Exit work and successful reintegration into society involves security agencies as well es very practical elements provided by municipal actors, public services, and civil society organizations. Effective cooperation between civil society and governmental actors including statutory bodies is crucial but can be challenging.
- Topic:
- Security, Civil Society, Government, Violent Extremism, and Islamism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Germany, Belgium, and Netherlands
189. Countering Zero-Sum Relations in the Middle East: Insights from the Expert Survey
- Author:
- Flavio Fusco
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Building on emerging debates on the need to develop de-escalation mechanisms for the Middle East, the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) and the Brussels-based Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS), with support from the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, launched a one-year research and outreach project entitled “Fostering a New Security Architecture in the Middle East”. Connected to the research, an expert survey targeting European, US, Russian, Middle Eastern and Chinese experts and practitioners was conducted on key themes, principles and approaches associated with a potential new security architecture for the region. The results of the survey – first published in an edited book volume jointly published by IAI and FEPS in November 2020 – are analysed below, complete with tables and infographics on key themes associated with the research project and the search for new, inclusive mechanisms for dialogue and de-escalation in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Foreign Policy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Middle East, and United States of America
190. The pandemic has overturned our old understandings of security
- Author:
- Trine Villumsen Berling, Ulrik Pram Gad, Karen Lund Petersen, and Ole Waever
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- On 11 March 2020, the Danish prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, addressed the nation in a press conference broadcast live from the ’Hall of Mirrors’ in the Prime Minister’s Office. The setting was grandiose, the tone was serious, the future gloomy. The coronavirus pandemic was here, and it was threatening Danish citizens, the healthcare system and the welfare state. Frederiksen announced an immediate two-week lockdown of Denmark. Now was the time to show ‘community spirit.’ Every citizen was called upon to work collectively to protect vulnerable individuals, societal cohesion and the survival of the Danish state. Gone were the threats of climate change, which dominated the general election less than a year earlier. If border control was relevant, the reason was no longer the migrants and refugees whose ‘influx’ and ‘failure to integrate’ had fundamentally re-configured the Danish party system over the last decades. Some would argue that this was a classic act of securitization requiring the concentration of all attention and resources on emergency measures to fight off an existential threat. However, what happened was much more complicated. What we saw was a complex web of translations of this security message into the daily practices of government agencies, private companies and citizens.
- Topic:
- Security, Governance, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Denmark, and Sweden
191. The Growing Threat Facing Israel from Iraq
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Iraq is already part of the northern crescent of threats facing Israel. The US presence, broader policy regarding Iran makes Israeli action in Iraq more complicated than in Syria.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Israel
192. Egyptian Mediation between Israel and Hamas Can Be Useful
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- For the first time in 13 years, an Israeli foreign minister (Gabi Ashkenazi, a former Chief of Staff of the IDF) has visited Egypt for talks with his Egyptian counterpart (Sameh Shukri). At the same time, the head of Egyptian Intelligence, Abbas Kamel, landed in Israel to discuss the situation regarding Gaza with Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gantz. Both visits are parts of a bid by President ‘Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi to take the lead in stabilizing the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel and managing the next steps in the broader Israeli-Palestinian context. Egypt has already benefitted from this. The initiative broke the ice between Sisi and the Biden Administration. Israel, stands to gain, as well. Unlike their predecessors, Sisi and Shukri have welcomed the Abraham Accords. Israel and Egypt have common interests in the eastern Mediterranean. And the Egyptians, for their own reasons, do not trust Hamas. Still, Israel is entitled to insist that as mediators, the Egyptians should keep Jerusalem off the table. It would be dangerous for many in the region were Hamas to gain a strategic foothold there. Israel also should insist on a swift release of its citizens held by Hamas and the return of the bodies of dead soldiers held since 2014. Additionally, it would be useful for the Egyptian government to curb the coarse anti-Israeli and often antisemitic discourse in its state-owned media and the Egyptian public domain, which acts to constrain Cairo’s options.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hamas
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt
193. Ramifications of an American Return to the 2015 Nuclear Agreement
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar and Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- By ignoring Israel’s views on an issue critical to its security, Washington will cast a dark shadow over Israel’s status as a key American ally in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Conflict, and JCPOA
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
194. Strategic Implications of the Damage at the Natanz Enrichment Facility
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The US should be appreciative of any significant delay in Iran’s breakout timetable towards a nuclear weapon. The time gained can and should be used to negotiate a “longer, stronger” agreement.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
195. “The Montreux Petition” and Creeping Islamization of the Turkish Military
- Author:
- Hay Ertan Cohen Yanarocak
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- A storm over a petition by retired naval officers once again has revealed longstanding tensions between the civilian Turkish government and the Turkish military, and Erdogan’s plans for advancing pro-regime Islamists in the military.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, Military Strategy, and Civil-Military Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Asia
196. The Battle for Marib: A Tipping Point of the Civil War in Yemen?
- Author:
- Uzi Rubin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The West is focusing on the tragic humanitarian costs of the war in Yemen while turning a blind eye to the significant strategic implications of a Houthi/Iranian victory. This approach imperils Middle Eastern and Western security.
- Topic:
- Security, Civil War, Conflict, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Yemen
197. The Concept of “Forward Defence”: How Has the Syrian Crisis Shaped the Evolution of Iran’s Military Strategy?
- Author:
- Hamidreza Azizi
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Over the past decade, Iranian officials have repeatedly referred to “forward defence” or “offensive defence” as the foundation of Iran’s military strategy. While the concept implies the inclusion of offensive aspects into Iran’s military strategy, which used to have an overwhelmingly defensive nature, it is also increasingly used to justify Iran’s military presence beyond its borders. This paper begins with a historical overview of the evolution of Iran’s military strategy, especially since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, showing how the concept of “deterrence” has become the cornerstone of its strategic military planning. It also discusses the crucial concept of “strategic depth”. Understanding these basic concepts is essential to be able to analyse the forward defence strategy, its main elements, and the domestic, regional, and international factors contributing to its formation. The paper also explores how the Syrian crisis has affected Iran’s military strategy in both conceptual and instrumental terms, leading to the formation and consolidation of the forward defence. Conceptually, Iran has justified its direct military presence far from its borders as necessary for confronting threats at their source before they reach Iranian territory. From an instrumental point of view, Iran’s involvement in the Syrian crisis has led to the development of Iran’s regional network of non-state allies and proxies, while adding a new layer to Iran’s deterrence vis-à-vis Israel. The main argument is that forward defence is not a new military doctrine but an evolved and updated form of “deterrence”. The paper also identifies Iran’s ballistic missile and drone programmes, its support for non-state actors across the region, and its focus on developing cyberwar capabilities as the main elements of its forward defence strategy, rooted in its perception that it is located in an increasingly insecure regional environment. Finally, the paper suggests that, for the United States to reach an agreement with Iran on these missile and regional issues, Washington and its regional allies must make reciprocal concessions to alleviate Iran’s sense of threat to its security and survival. In this case, Iran might be ready to make concessions on its allied and proxy militias in Yemen and Syria, although the more complex security and political situations in Iraq and Lebanon leave Tehran with comparably less leverage. While Iran is not expected to agree on considerably limiting its missile programme, an agreement on the range of its ballistic missiles could be achievable.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Missile Defense, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
198. Security Scenarios for Syria in 2021-2022
- Author:
- Serhat Erkmen, Nicholas Heras, and Kirill Semenov
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Syria is a geographic entity divided into three main zones of control, each ruled by local actors with the strong and seemingly indefinite support of powerful foreign actors. These three zones are one zone in western, central, and eastern Syria controlled by the Syrian government, a second zone in northwest and northern Syria along the Syrian-Turkish border controlled by the Syrian opposition and supported by Turkey and a third zone in northeast Syria controlled by the Autonomous Administration of Northeast Syria (AANES) and its military the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) - which is supported by the United States and several of its allies that are part of the global coalition to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). The common perception by observers of the Syrian conflict is that it is frozen; that Syria will be indefinitely divided into these different territorial zones of control. This assumption obscures the fact though that a significant amount of fluidity on the ground within Syria's three main zones of control is possible. Each of these zones has its own unique characteristics and local customs that must be understood to draw broader assessments on how the wider Syrian conflict might be resolved one day.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Governance, and Local
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
199. Understanding the Encryption Debate in India
- Author:
- Anirudh Burman and Prateek Jha
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Encryption has become a contentious instrument for protecting the security and confidentiality of online communication. Rapid digitalization in the past decade has led to the proliferation of domestic and foreign online communication services that use encryption and, consequently, pose challenges to national security bodies and law enforcement agencies (LEAs). To address these challenges, the Indian government introduced new regulations in February 2021. These regulations require large social media platforms to enable traceability, or the ability to provide information concerning the originator of online communications. Technology companies and privacy activists have opposed such a move on the grounds that traceability would require the breaking of the end-to-end encryption used by many online communication platforms like WhatsApp and therefore would compromise the security of online communications on such platforms. This traceability requirement, however, is only the latest development in a drawn-out, contentious debate over the use of encryption. The contestation between maintaining higher degrees of online security and issuing new rules to grant technological exceptions for security agencies and LEAs is not specific to India. One of the first serious discussions on the issue took place in the United States in the 1990s, when public opposition warded off an early government attempt to sidestep encryption protections with a court order. In the past decade, the use of encryption has only grown more pronounced. The revelations that the United States’ National Security Agency was collecting vast amounts of communications data led to the introduction and increased adoption of end-to-end encryption for online communications. End-to-end encryption is now used widely by online communication platforms like WhatsApp, Signal, and Threema. Its use presents law enforcement and national security agencies with new challenges. Even though these agencies today have greater and easier access to more information than ever before, the absolute confidentiality provided by encrypted online communication platforms makes it harder for these agencies to engage in real-time surveillance to investigate crimes and identity wrongdoers. While some policymakers from India and other countries argue that encryption must only be weakened to solve specific problems, most experts agree that, as of today, there is no technological solution that would weaken encryption for specific law enforcement and national security purposes, while managing to maintain preexisting levels of security and confidentiality for general use. The introduction of any mechanism for specific access would, it is claimed, introduce both known and unknown vulnerabilities into these communications platforms. Such a mechanism would have a systemic effect on all online communication dependent on encryption for ensuring security and confidentiality. In India, these developments create challenges in specific ways. For example, India reports the highest number of child pornography cases worldwide, and encrypted communications makes it difficult to identify culpable parties. Similarly, as India has digitized rapidly, there has been a surfeit of fake and offensive online news that has, in some cases, led to mob lynchings. In addition, terrorist networks have been found to be using encrypted communication channels while planning and carrying out terrorist attacks in India. Over the years, the Indian government’s approach to encryption has responded to these concerns in a variety of ways. Indian financial regulators mandated the use of encryption for banking and financial services as they realized the security of such transactions was best protected through encryption. At the same time, the Indian government prohibited telecom operators from implementing bulk or mass encryption in telecommunication services. Starting in 2015, the government introduced different regulatory proposals requiring that messaging platforms and other communication service providers provide plaintext copies of communications to Indian government agencies on request. These proposals, however, faced significant opposition and were withdrawn. Earlier in 2021, the Indian government’s new rules requiring traceability have been officially notified. The mechanisms through which they will be implemented are not yet clear. It is also unclear if these rules are the last demands the Indian government will make to weaken encryption, or whether further demands will arise in the future. To weigh the relative benefits and drawbacks of the Indian government’s proposal, analysts should consider relevant factors such as (but not limited to) whether such changes will offer law enforcement officials the access they desire, how the security of encrypted communications will be affected, and how citizens’ civil liberties will be impacted, among others.
- Topic:
- Security, National Security, Science and Technology, Law Enforcement, Digitalization, and Encryption
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
200. India’s Fog of Misunderstanding Surrounding Nepal–China Relations
- Author:
- Vijay Gokhale
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- India’s postindependence ties with Nepal were predicated on the intimate cultural and historical links between the two countries. As India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, noted, “though Nepal was an independent country, it was very closely allied to India in culture and tradition and we did not look upon it as a foreign country.” New Delhi also regarded China as an “interloper” in Nepal in 1950 who threatened India’s security and interests in the region, ignoring at least a century of Sino-Nepali history centering around Tibet. This paper argues that New Delhi’s close relationship with Nepal, bound in history and culture, and the misperception about China’s relations with Nepal before 1950 have contributed to a skewed understanding of Sino-Nepali relations. The Working Paper looks at the impact that New Delhi’s misperceptions of Sino-Nepali relations, termed the “fog of misunderstanding,” has had in the context of the triangular relations between China, India, and Nepal. The paper is divided into four sections arranged chronologically. The first section looks at the historical Sino-Nepali relationship from the mid-eighteenth to the mid-twentieth centuries. It establishes that this early relationship was centered on Tibet. While the Gorkha kings of Nepal sought to preserve their trade privileges in the region, the Chinese were concerned about the security of their southwestern frontier. Notably though, Beijing’s concern with security does not appear to have extended into any desire to conquer Nepal. This section also touches upon British India’s policy toward Nepal in the nineteenth century, and the subsequent approach that the government of independent India took in the first few years, without an adequate appreciation of Kathmandu’s history with China. As a consequence, India developed a suspicious attitude toward Beijing’s desire to re-establish ties with Kathmandu after the Chinese Civil War, and shaped its policy toward Nepal with this factor in mind. The second section delves into Indian and Chinese policies toward Nepal in the period from 1955 until the end of the monarchy in 2008. It showcases how, during this long period, the three kings of Nepal sought to leverage their ties with China in order to maintain some semblance of balance and how China, in turn, followed a limited but strategic approach that was centered on the kings. The fog of misunderstanding continued to shroud India’s attitude to Nepal-China relations during this period and, consequently, India’s Nepal policy lacked a working template to manage relations with a smaller neighbor sandwiched between India and China in a way that would preserve New Delhi’s influence in a positive way. In contrast to China’s political approach, New Delhi fluctuated between the monarchy and an assortment of democratic political parties, suggestive of a provincial approach in New Delhi’s dealing with Kathmandu. As a result, China’s approach ensured that its main objective in Nepal, namely the security of its southwestern frontier, was secured with a relatively low-risk and low-cost strategy. The third section deals with the aftermath of the fall of the Nepali monarchy, 2008 to 2016. During this important period, New Delhi had a fresh opportunity to reset ties by providing the support to democratic forces in Nepal, that could have resulted in a transformation of the Indo-Nepali ties. However, India appeared to hew to its traditional policy. China, on the other hand, quickly built new ties with the post-monarchical dispensation. India’s perceived actions as a result of the adoption of the new constitution of Nepal plunged Indo-Nepali ties to a nadir. It seems to have pushed Kathmandu to strengthen its relationship with China. This section of the paper also outlines the changing nature of China’s policy and objectives in Nepal, especially in the second decade of the twenty-first century, and its possible implications on the future course of the triangular relationship, as well as for India-Nepal relations. It postulates that under President Xi Jinping, China’s policy toward Nepal has shifted from protecting its periphery to a broader goal of bringing Nepal under its strategic control. This section highlights the political and economic levers that Beijing is using to build a preeminent position in Nepal. The paper concludes with an assessment of options available to all three countries going forward, and India’s options in Nepal in the face of China’s new policy in the region. It suggests that a decisive reset in policy toward Nepal is required to restore healthy relations that are based on mutual respect and mutual sensitivity. New Delhi may need to re-orient its thinking toward Nepal in the context of triangular relations, including on the boundary issue and the 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship that have been long-standing irritants in the India-Nepal relationship. Nepal, for its part, should also reflect carefully on whether its leveraging of China might become counterproductive in the light of changing strategic balance in its vicinity, and the implications of giving up the policy of balance for one that tilts decisively toward Beijing. The paper concludes that there is sufficient scope and opportunity for course correction by India, and that through sustained efforts India may be able to preserve its influence and security in Nepal and counter China’s expanding footprint.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, India, Asia, and Nepal