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101. Sources of Tension in the Asia-Pacific: Strategic Competition, Divided Regionalism and Non-traditional Security Challenges

Author:
James Manicom
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
There are a number of strategic challenges currently affecting the Asia-Pacific. In a period of global uncertainty, China has emerged as a confident and powerful actor, while the ability of the United States to remain the region's hegemonic power has come into question. Maritime boundary claims, regionalism and unresolved Cold War sovereignty disputes are a source of considerable uncertainty. A number of non-traditional security challenges are also emerging, including energy and food insecurity, cyber security and the threat of a climate catastrophe-related humanitarian crisis. Canada and Australia — resource-based economies with a record of bilateral and institutional engagement in the region, and important US allies — have an interest in these challenges, and in ensuring regional strategic stability that promotes economic growth.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Canada, Israel, Australia, Australia/Pacific, and Asia-Pacific

102. Estimating Income / Expenditure Differences across Populations: New Fun with Old Engel's Law

Author:
Lant Pritchett and Marla Spivack
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
How much larger are the consumption possibilities of an urban US household with per capita expenditures of 1,000 US dollars per month than a rural Indonesian household with per capita expenditures of 1,000,000 Indonesian Rupiah per month? Consumers in different markets face widely different consumption possibilities and prices and hence the conversion of incomes or expenditures to truly comparable units of purchasing power is extremely difficult. We propose a simple supplement to existing purchasing power adjusted currency conversions.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Political Economy, Political Theory, Social Stratification, and Socialism/Marxism
Political Geography:
United States and Southeast Asia

103. How to Measure Underemployment?

Author:
David G. Blanchflower and David N. F. Bell
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
One of the factors that may inhibit reductions in unemployment as the economy recovers is the extent to which existing workers would like to work more hours and employers may prefer to let them work longer hours before making new hires. This phenomenon suggests that the unemployment rate does not capture the full extent of excess capacity in the labor market. But how should it be measured? In this paper we argue that the United States does not have the necessary statistical tools to calibrate this form of underemployment. We describe an index that captures the joint effects of unemployment and underemployment and provides a more complete picture of labor market excess capacity. We show how this index can be implemented using British data and describe its evolution over the Great Recession. Comparisons of our index with unemployment rates suggest that unemployment rates understate differences in labor market excess capacity by age group and overstate differences by gender. We also show that being unable to work the hours that one desires has a negative effect on well-being. Finally, we recommend that the Current Population Survey conducted by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics might be extended to enable the construction of an equivalent US index.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

104. The Civil-Military Challenge to National Security Spending

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Perhaps the worst part of the debate that has led to the shut down of the federal government is its almost total irrelevance. It threaten both the US economy and US national security, but it does even begin to touch upon the forces that shape the rise in entitlements spending or their underlying causes.The Congressional debate does not address the forces that have led to a form of sequestration that focuses on defense as if it were the key cause of the deficit and pressures on the debt ceiling. It does not address the irony that much of defense spending has direct benefits to the US economy and that the spending on foreign wars–the so-called OCO account–dropped from $158.8 billion in FY2011 to some $88.5 billion in FY2013, and is projected to drop to around $37 billion in FY2015. Much of the debate focuses on the Affordable Care Act or "Obama Care"–a program whose balance between federal expenditures and revenues is sufficiently uncertain so the Congressional Budget office can only make limited forecasts, but whose net impact cannot come close to the cost pressures that an aging America and rising national medical costs have put on Federal entitlements in the worst case NDS May actually have a positive impact in the best case.The following briefing provides a range of estimates that addresses the real issues that are shaping the overall pressures that poverty, an aging America, and rising medical costs are putting on the US economy and federal spending. It draws on a range of sources to show how different estimates affect key trends, but focuses on data provide by a neutral arm of the same Congress that has paralyzed the US government and whose action threaten the funding on a viable national security strategy.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States and America

105. A U.S.-Indonesia Partnership for 2020: Recommendations for Forging a 21st Century Relationship

Author:
Murray Hiebert, Gregory B. Poling, and Ted Osius
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The U.S.- Indonesia relationship is critical to the national interests of both nations, and will only grow more so in the years to come. The catch words are now well- known. Indonesia is the world's fourth largest country and third largest democracy. It is the largest Muslim- majority nation, one of the most pluralistic societies on the planet. Its political system provides proof that democratic norms and values are not dependent on culture, history, or religion.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Diplomacy, Economics, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
United States, Indonesia, and Southeast Asia

106. Toward a New Paradigm of Sustainable Development: Lessons from the Partnership for Growth

Author:
Jeri Jensen
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The Obama administration has the opportunity to achieve more sustainable development solutions with a new model of development relevant in a world where private investment is the primary driver of economic growth.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States

107. Structure and Dynamics of the U.S. Federal Services Industrial Base, 2000-2012

Author:
David J. Berteau, Gregory Sanders, and Jesse Ellman
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The U.S. government has a permanent reliance on contracts with the private sector for a wide range of services, though the share of federal services contracts has declined slightly in recent years. For the past eight years, the Defense - Industrial Initiatives Group (DIIG) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has tracked the trends driving the services industry. Overall, this report analyzes the trends for all federal services contract obligations from FY 2000 through FY 2012, the most recent full fiscal year for which reliable data are available from the Federal Procurement Data System (FPDS). This Executive Summary provides an overall view of the data and trends, including projections for federal services contract spending over the next 3 years (FY 2013 – 2015).
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, Labor Issues, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States

108. U.S. Disaster Preparedness and Resilience: Recommendations for Reform

Author:
Stephanie Sanok Kostro, Ashley Nichols, and Abigail Temoshchuk
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In recent years , the United States has faced a growing number of severe natural disasters , presenting a variety of challenges for the nation – spanning the spectrum from federal to state to municipal and community levels – and its disaster response , relief, and recovery architecture . On average, the United States experiences ten severe weather events per year exceeding one billion dollars in damage , compared to an annual average of only two such events throughout the 1980s
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Humanitarian Aid, Natural Disasters, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States

109. Transition in Afghanistan: 2009-2013

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The US is already at least six months behind in shaping an effective Transition in Afghanistan. It has not laid credible plans for the security, governance, and economic aspects of Transition. It has not made its level of future commitment clear to its allies or the Afghans, and it has failed dismally to convince the Congress and the American people that there is a credible reason to support Transition beyond the end of 2014.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Islam, War, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

110. LATIN AMERICAN HIGHER EDUCATION SYSTEMS IN A HISTORICAL AND COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE

Author:
Jorge Balán
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:
Higher education has undergone impressive growth and change over the last few decades in Latin America.This book selectively reviews some dimensions of this transformation, discussing policies, institutions, and programs, as well as their outcomes in terms of access, workforce training, and research. Individual chapters, commissioned from specialists from Latin America and the United States, stand as original, independent contributions focusing on key issues in higher education: changes in institutional autonomy and system governance, the contributions of higher education to advanced workforce development, policy responses to the continuing challenges of access and equity, government-sponsored study-abroad scholarships programs in several countries, trends in academic mobility and its outcomes for brain drain and gain, the changing landscape of U.S. universities' and corporations' investment in the region, and recent development of U.S. government exchange programs with Latin America.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Education, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
Political Geography:
United States and Latin America

111. Templates for Trade: Change, Persistence and Path Dependence in U. S. and EU Preferential Trade Agreements

Author:
Ali Arbia
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
Over the last two decades, Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) proliferated through the international trading system. PTAs created a web of rules paralleling and extending the system of the World Trade Organization (WTO). PTAs are an increasingly dominant feature of the international trading system, adding to a steadily increasing complexity. Their content is rarely studied systematically across agreements, and the mechanisms leading to their genesis are little understood. It is typically assumed that actors like the European Union (EU) and the United States (U. S.) work off a template when negotiating PTAs. Some argue that this allows them, amongst others, to impose a regulatory regime. This working paper attempts to put this claim to the test. Using diffusion theory as framework, it analyzes PTAs signed by the EU, the U. S. and their regional trading partners. Understanding the use of templates will help negotiating parties to assess the margin of maneuver when negotiating PTAs with the EU and the U. S. as well as the rigidity of their mandate. The analysis is conducted on a regional and a domestic level using aggregated data on PTA content and a qualitative assessment of selected PTA provisions (anti-corruption, environment and cultural cooperation). The study finds that the flexibility of these mandates is considerable and that templates, if used at all, can change substantially over time.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

112. Responding to Change: The New World of Oil and Gas

Author:
Bill White(Chair) and Leonard Coburn(Rapporteur)
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Improved technology has led to enhanced oil and gas productivity at lower cost and significant production increases in the United States and Canada, dramatically changing energy perspectives. The shift from energy scarcity toward abundance is requiring new energy policies. The potential for the United States to become a net exporter of oil and gas changes American views of energy dependency. Shifts in global energy demand growth from developed to less developed countries, and especially to the Asia-Pacific region, require understanding of changing global energy trade. American energy will flow to markets where scarcity is the largest. Canada and the United States are reaping the benefits of this new world of oil and gas. Mexico will lag behind unless it addresses its chronic problems. Without reform, Mexico could become a net importer of all its hydrocarbons, a fundamental change from its current status. Responding to these changes will require knowledge, foresight, and strategies that are bold and comprehensive.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States, America, Canada, and Mexico

113. The Future of the U.S. Electricity Sector

Author:
Bill Dickenson (Co-Chair), Phil Sharp (Co-Chair), and Dave Grossman (Rapporteur)
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The future of the U.S. electricity sector is hard to foresee – and it is never wise to overpay one's fortune tellers – but there appear to be some key trends and technologies that may reshape future electricity markets and determine the innovativeness, resilience, security, and global competitiveness of the sector. Discussions of the sector's past, present, and future formed the heart of the 2013 Aspen Institute Energy Policy Forum. This report summarizes and organizes some of the key insights from those discussions.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, Markets, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States

114. Empirical Investigation of Declining Childbirth: Psychosocial and Economic Conditions in Japan

Author:
Tetsuji Yamada, Chia-Ching Chen, Chie Hanaoka, and Seiritsu Ogura
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Background: For the past two decades, more and more women in certain European countries, Japan, and the United States are giving birth to their first child at a considerably later age than ever before. It remains unclear as to what extent this age-related general fertility decline is affected by changing social and cultural norms. Method: The Global Centers of Excellence Survey was conducted by Osaka University in Japan (n=5313) in 2009. Multivariate regression analyses were conducted to examine the impact of psychosocial norms, cultural differences, and economic conditions on the perception of childbearing. Results: The findings suggest that a subjective measure of happiness has a significant influence on childbearing. A society with income inequalities between classes discourages childbearing. It is observed that women's higher labor force participation generates a negative impact on motherchild relations which causes discouragement of childbearing. A higher female labor force participation stemmed from a transition of a traditional society into a modern and marketoriented society discourages childbearing. Conclusions/implications: A woman's decision to delay childbearing is based on her perception of psychosocial norms with surrounding economic environment and her own value of opportunity in the market oriented society. Childbearing also imposes psycho-economic burdens on the working population under mix of a traditional, patriarchal society, and a modern market oriented framework. Childbearing incentives could be a strategic policy to encourage positive attitudes of childbearing in general and proper welfare policy, labor law(s), employment conditions, and social security system for a working mother with a child or children.
Topic:
Economics, Gender Issues, Health, Poverty, Social Stratification, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Europe, Israel, and Asia

115. The Use of Public Assistance Benefits by Citizens and Non-citizen Immigrants in the United States

Author:
Leighton Ku and Brian Bruen
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Claims are sometimes made that immigrants use public benefits, such as Medicaid, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families programs, more often than those who are born in the United States. This report provides analyses, using the most recent data from the Census Bureau, that counter these claims. In reality, low-income non-citizen immigrants, including adults and children, are generally less likely to receive public benefits than those who are native-born. Moreover, when non-citizen immigrants receive benefits, the value of benefits they receive is usually lower than the value of benefits received by those born in the United States. The combination of lower average utilization and smaller average benefits indicates that the overall cost of public benefits is substantially less for low-income non-citizen immigrants than for comparable native-born adults and children. The report also explains that the lower use of public benefits by non-citizen immigrants is not surprising, since federal rules restrict immigrants' eligibility for these public benefit programs.
Topic:
Economics, Health, Humanitarian Aid, Markets, and Immigration
Political Geography:
United States

116. Why Growth Is Getting Harder

Author:
Brink Lindsey
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
For over a century, the trend line for the long-term growth of the U.S. economy has held remarkably steady. Notwithstanding huge changes over time in economic, social, and political conditions, growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita has fluctuated fairly closely around an average annual rate of approximately 2 percent. Looking ahead, however, there are strong reasons for doubting that this historic norm can be maintained.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States

117. The Rebalance to Asia: U.S.-China Relations and Regional Security

Author:
Phillip C. Saunders
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Upon taking office in January 2009, Obama administration officials proclaimed a U.S. “return to Asia.” This pronouncement was backed with more frequent travel to the region by senior officials (Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's first trip was to Asia) and increased U.S. participation in regional multilateral meetings, culminating in the decision to sign the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Treaty of Amity and Cooperation and to participate in the East Asia Summit (EAS) at the head-of-state level. The strategic “rebalance to Asia” announced in November 2011 builds on these earlier actions to deepen and institutionalize U.S. commitment to the Asia-Pacific region.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, and Asia

118. East Asia and the Arctic: Alaskan and American Perspectives

Author:
Jerry McBeath
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper concerns the US view of East Asian nations' involvement in the Arctic, emphasizing the perspective of Alaska, the only US Arctic state. It treats six different areas of US/Alaska policy: US national strategy for the Arctic; oil and gas exploration and development; marine transportation; fisheries; investment in infrastructure; and governance. The study finds few differences between the positions of Alaska and the United States, notwithstanding often-hostile rhetoric from leaders in the United States' farthest north frontier. In general terms, both Alaska and the United States have historically sought trade and investment ties with East Asian nations. China has now replaced Japan as Alaska's major trading partner, followed by South Korea and Taiwan.
Topic:
Economics, Food, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
United States, China, Taiwan, East Asia, South Korea, Alaska, and Arctic

119. A Markov Switching Approach to Herding

Author:
Pierre Siklos, Martin T. Bohl, and Arne C. Klein
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Existing models of market herding suffer from several drawbacks. Measures that assume herd behaviour is constant over time or independent of the economy are not only economically unreasonable, but describe the data poorly. First, if returns are stationary, then a two-regime model is required to describe the data. Second, existing models of time-varying herding cannot be estimated from daily or weekly data, and are unable to accommodate factors that explain changes in this behaviour. To overcome these deficiencies, this paper proposes a Markov switching herding model. By means of time-varying transition probabilities, the model is able to link variations in herding behaviour to proxies for sentiment or the macroeconomic environment. The evidence for the US stock market reveals that during periods of high volatility, investors disproportionately rely on fundamentals rather than on market consensus.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and Canada

120. Is Anyone Listening? Does US Foreign Assistance Target People's Top Priorities?

Author:
Benjamin Leo
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The United States government has made repeated declarations over the last decade to align its assistance programs behind developing countries' priorities. By utilizing public attitude surveys for 42 African and Latin American countries, this paper examines how well the US has implemented this guiding principle. Building upon the Quality of Official Development Assistance Assessment (QuODA) approach, I identify what people cite most frequently as the 'most pressing problems' facing their nations and then measure the percentage of US assistance commitments that are directed towards addressing them. By focusing on public surveys over time, this analysis attempts to provide a more nuanced and targeted examination of whether US portfolios are addressing what people care the most about. As reference points, I compare US alignment trends with the two regional multilateral development banks (MDBs) – the African Development Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank. Overall, this analysis suggests that US assistance may be only modestly aligned with what people in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America cite as their nation's most pressing problems. By comparison, the African Development Bank – which is majority-led by regional member nations – performs significantly better than the United States. Like the United States, however, the Inter-American Development Bank demonstrates a low relative level of support for people's top concerns.
Topic:
Security, Crime, Development, Economics, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, America, and Latin America

121. Financial regulation and the G20

Author:
Hugh Jorgensen, Mike Callaghan, Stephen Pickford, Richard Gray, Steven Bardy, Graham Hodges, and Ross Buckley
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
This issue of the Monitor canvases the role of the G20 in strengthening financial regulation. It contains articles by Hugh Jorgensen (Lowy Institute), Stephen Pickford (Chatham House), Richard Gray (Westpac), myself, Steven Bardy (Australian Securities and Investment Commission), Ross Buckley (University of New South Wales) and Graham Hodges (ANZ). It also includes a summary of the discussion at a regional 'Think 20' seminar recently held at the Lowy Institute.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, and Reform
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

122. Trade and the G20

Author:
John Ravenhill, Mark P Thirlwell, Mike Callaghan, Peter W. Gallagher, and Brett Williams
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
This issue of the G20 Monitor is devoted to the topic of international trade and the role of the G20. Over the coming months, the Monitor will be covering in detail a number of issues that are, or could be, on the G20 agenda. For example, over the next few months there will be an issue on 'Financial regulation and the G20' and another on 'Development and the G20'. The question we are asking on each issue is 'where can the G20 add value?'
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Europe

123. The US and Iran: Sanctions, Energy, Arms Control, and Regime Change

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman, Bryan Gold, and Chloe Coughlin-Schulte
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
US and Iranian strategic competition is heavily drive by four key factors–the success or failure of sanctions, the im0pact of that competition on the flow of Gulf energy exports, the success or failure of efforts to limit Iran's nuclear options and the broader prospect for arms control, and the prospects for accommodation of regime change. In recent years, the key variable has been ways in which sanctions on Iran have changed US and Iranian competition since the fall of 2011, and helped lead to a tentative set of Iranian agreements with the UN's P5+1--the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, namely United States, Russia, China, United Kingdom, and France, plus Germany--in November 2013.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Oil, Regime Change, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, Middle East, France, and Germany

124. Politics and Economics in Putin's Russia

Author:
Stephen J. Blank
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The United States Army War College educates and develops leaders for service at the strategic level while advancing knowledge in the global application of Landpower.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, and Economics
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

125. Inward FDI in the United States and its policy context

Author:
Lucyna Kornecki
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Inward foreign direct investment (IFDI) represents an integral part of the United States (U.S.) economy, with its stock growing from US$ 83 billion in 1980 to US$ 3.5 trillion in 2011. The United States, which had earlier been primarily a home for multinational enterprises (MNEs) rather than a host for affiliates of foreign MNEs, has become a preferred host country for FDI since the 1980s. Foreign MNEs have contributed robust flows of FDI into diverse industries of the U.S. economy, and total FDI inflows reached US$227 billion in 2011, equivalent to 15% of global inflows, the single largest share of any economy. Inflows of FDI, with a peak of US$ 314 billion in 2000 and another of US$ 306 billion in 2008, have been an important factor contributing to sustained economic growth in the United States. The recent financial and economic crises negatively impacted FDI flows to the United States and opened a period of major uncertainty. The effectiveness of government policy responses at both the national and international levels in addressing the financial crisis and its economic consequences will play a crucial role for creating favorable conditions for a rebound in FDI inflows.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States and North America

126. Inward FDI in Germany and its policy context, 2012

Author:
Thomas Jost
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
In 2011 and the first half of 2012, inward FDI (IFDI) flows to Germany continued to be relatively strong. Germany attracte market-seeking MNEs, as its economy showed remarkable economic growth despite the ongoing problems in many other countries of the Eurozone. In the second half of 2012, IFDI flows turned sharply negative, declining for the year as a whole to only US$ 7 billion, compared with US$ 49 billion in 2011. This decline reflects the difficult financial situation of many companies, including banks in the Eurozone, and could also dampen inflows in 2013. In the longer-term, Germany could profit again from rising FDI as its economy has successfully implemented reforms over the past decade, and the German Government has continued to keep its investment policy regime open.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Germany

127. The global economy: Healing or still hurting?

Author:
Leo Abruzzese
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
After a series of setbacks, the global economy is slowly mending US economy is strengthening; star performer Jobs market is on a modest upswing Housing is bouncing back China is recovering from a slowdown Boom years are over, but so is the slump European debt crisis is stabilizing but austerity is killing the economy Euro zone remains big drag on global growth Japan is showing signs of recovery under a new government Central banks are supporting the bounce - back in a big way Don't expect a brisk recovery, though; many risks remains Debt levels still high; asset prices are volatile; tensions in Middle East, China, Kore and has stabilised in Europe, but at a low level. In Germany, manufacturing output is rising again.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
United States and China

128. Africa's Booming Oil and Natural Gas Exploration and Production: National Security Implications for the United States and China

Author:
David E. Brown
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The frenetic search for hydrocarbons in Africa has become so intense and wide ranging that there is planned or ongoing oil and gas exploration in at least 51 of the continent's 54 countries. Knowledge about Africa's geology is improving rapidly, generating great optimism about the continent's energy future. Onshore and offshore rifts and basins created when the African continent separated from the Americas and Eurasia 150 million years ago are now recognized as some of the most promising hydrocarbon provinces in the world. Offshore Angola and Brazil, Namibia and Brazil, Ghana and French Guyana, Morocco and Mexico, Somalia and Yemen, and Mozambique and Madagascar are just a few of the geological analogues where large oil fields have been discovered or are be-lieved to lie. One optimistic but quite credible scenario is that future discoveries in Africa will be around five timestheir current level based on what remains un-explored on the continent versus currently known sub-soil assets. If proven true, this could have a pro-foundly positive impact on Africa's future growth and strategic position in the global economy.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, China, America, Eurasia, Asia, Brazil, Yemen, Mozambique, Mexico, Morocco, Somalia, Angola, Ghana, Namibia, Guyana, and Moldavia

129. North American Competitiveness: The San Diego Agenda

Author:
Christopher Sands, Duncan Wood, and Laura Dawson
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
The 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) among Canada, Mexico, and the United States was a bold experiment in economic integration and regional cooperation. To be successful, the initiative demanded political leadership and a commitment to regionalism. It required a vision that extended beyond short-term national interest and it demanded creative thinking about how three large countries could integrate their markets in a meaningful way.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, North America, and Mexico

130. Open Spectrum: A Major Step for U.S. Innovation and Economic Growth

Author:
Harold Furchtgott-Roth
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
This paper proposes that the Federal Communications Commission adopt rules to allow practically all of the electromagnetic spectrum to be allocated flexibly in response to market conditions and to allow licensees to use their spectrum flexibly. This approach is consistent with the direction of FCC decisions to allow greater spectrum flexibility and would be economically far superior to recent FCC proposals for broadcast spectrum auctions. Spectrum flexibility—or “Open Spectrum”—would eliminate the much-lamented wireless broadband “shortage” without delay and would foster greater innovation in American spectrum markets and transactions and in wireless services and products. The econo mic value of Open Spectrum is probably orders of magnitude greater than the projected $15 billion in receipts from the FCC's broadcast spectrum auctions.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, and Communications
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and America

131. Institutional Choices for Regulating Oil and Gas Wells

Author:
Lee Lane
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Hydraulic fracturing (HF) is one of the technologies that have enabled large increases both in the current production of natural gas and in estimates of recoverable reserves. However, as new technology has triggered a boom in onshore U.S. gas exploration and production (E), environmental concerns have multiplied. Much of the concern centers on use of HF. As public concern has risen, so have calls for federal regulatory control. The Interior Department has adopted tighter controls on the use of HF on public lands. Also, two former Obama White House aides, Carol Browner and Jody Freeman, have argued for more EPA regulation of all use of HF in oil and gas drilling. To achieve this control, they propose to repeal the partial oil and gas exemption under the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA). Bills to this effect, dubbed the FRAC Act, were proposed in the last two Congresses, but they were not adopted.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States and North America

132. Envisioning 2030: US Strategy for the Coming Technology Revolution

Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
This report has a simple message: We are not prepared for the negative consequences of many new technologies or as well-positioned as we should be to take full advantage of the benefits. Emerging technologies are likely to be more beneficial than detrimental, but the opposite could be true if we are not careful. This report examines emerging technologies in three broad areas—energy, smart cities, and manufacturing—that are playing critical yet disruptive roles: all present opportunities for the US and its partners, but also huge challenges and risks.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
United States

133. The United States, Russia, and Europe: Trilateral Security Dialogue in the Absence of Strategic Partnership

Author:
Isabelle Francois
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The past twenty years have been marked by a series of setbacks and disappointments in the US-European-Russian dialogue, despite regular attempts to develop a strategic partnership. In this cyclical relationship, 2012 was a low point in Western relations with Russia, from the calculated absence of President Vladimir Putin at the NATO summit in Chicago to the Russian ban on American adoptions of Russian orphans, and the US reaction to the Sergei Magnitsky case. The year 2013 could have been the beginning of an upswing in the trilateral dialogue. In April, US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met on the margins of the G8 foreign ministers' gathering in London. At the same time, US National Security Advisor Tom Donilon called on Putin in Moscow, where he hand-delivered a letter from President Barack Obama detailing potential areas of cooperation. A series of meetings between Russian and American officials throughout the summer saw a new diplomatic push to reframe the US–Russia relationship in the run-up to the Group of Eight meeting in June and the G20 meeting in September 2013. However, the Edward Snowden affair and Obama's subsequent decision to cancel the planned September meeting with Putin in light of insufficient progress on bilateral issues point to a pause in the relationship.
Topic:
International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, America, and Europe

134. Mexico Rising: Comprehensive Energy Reform at Last?

Author:
David J. Goldwyn
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Mexico's Congress passed its final hurdle to reform the Constitution and allow for private investment in the energy industry on December 12, 2013. This significant achievement heralds the most comprehensive energy reform in the last seventy-five years of the country's history.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, and Mexico

135. Redefining Leadership in the Global Nuclear Energy Market

Author:
Andrew Paterson and Walter Howes
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Global energy demand will increase substantially in the coming decades under pressure from global trends, including an increasing population that will reach 9 billion by 2040, and, for the first time in history, will be overwhelmingly urban. Meeting basic global energy needs will require the use of all available sources of energy while addressing and minimizing environmental and climate impacts. Nuclear energy is an established part of the world's electricity mix, and provides large-scale, reliable, base-load electricity demand. As such, it seems to be well matched to fit into an increasingly urban world that aims to mediate environmental challenges.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

136. What's Wrong with Dodd-Frank 1502? Conflict Minerals, Civilian Livelihoods, and the Unintended Consequences of Western Advocacy

Author:
Laura E. Seay
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Although its provisions have yet to be implemented, section 1502 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act is already having a profound effect on the Congolese mining sector. Nicknamed “Obama's Law” by the Congolese, section 1502 has created a de facto ban on Congolese mineral exports, put anywhere from tens of thousands up to 2 million Congolese miners out of work in the eastern Congo, and, despite ending most of the trade in Congolese conflict minerals, done little to improve the security situation or the daily lives of most Congolese. In this report, Laura Seay traces the development of section 1502 with respect to the pursuit of a conflict minerals-based strategy by U.S. advocates, examines the effects of the legislation, and recommends new courses of action to move forward in a way that both promotes accountability and transparency and allows Congolese artisanal miners to earn a living.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Poverty, Natural Resources, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Democratic Republic of the Congo

137. Integration of Low-Skilled Immigrants to the United-States and Work-Family Balance

Author:
Magali Girard
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
The role played by immigrants in the American economy is well documented and, to a lesser extent, the effect of the migration experience on the families of immigrants. However, little is known of the connections between work and family when it comes to immigrants, especially immigrants in low-skilled jobs, whether it is the effect of labour market experiences on the family or the effect of family patterns on integration into the labour market. Yet, the issue of balancing personal life with professional responsibilities is of growing interest among scholars and policy makers, given the increasing participation of women in the labour market, the increase in non-standard work and the high proportion of immigrants in these work arrangements.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Labor Issues, and Immigration
Political Geography:
United States

138. Managing Migration and Integration: Europe and the US

Author:
Philip Martin
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Most Americans and Europeans in opinion polls say that governments are doing a poor job of selecting wanted newcomers, preventing the entry and stay of unwanted foreigners, and integrating settled immigrants and their children. This seminar reviewed the evidence, asking about the economic and socio-political integration of low-skilled immigrants and their children.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Immigration, Governance, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Europe

139. Freeing the Global Market: How to Boost the Economy by Curbing Regulatory Distortions

Author:
Shanker A. Singham
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The U.S. economy faces major challenges competing internationally. One of the most worrisome is the growing use in China and other advanced developing countries of anticompetitive market distortions (ACMDs)—including regulatory protection that privileges specific companies—which put foreign competitors at a disadvantage. ACMDs are government actions that give certain business interests artificial competitive advantages over their rivals, be they foreign or domestic, to the detriment of consumer welfare. These market distortions are especially damaging to the industries in which the United States enjoys the greatest comparative advantages, but they are also harmful to the long-term prosperity of developing economies and cost the global economy trillions of dollars. To combat ACMDs, the conventional trade policy approach of focusing on the The U.S. economy faces major challenges competing internationally. One of the most worrisome is the growing use in China and other advanced developing countries of anticompetitive market distortions (ACMDs)—including regulatory protection that privileges specific companies—which put foreign competitors at a disadvantage.1 ACMDs are government actions that give certain business interests artificial competitive advantages over their rivals, be they foreign or domestic, to the detriment of consumer welfare. These market distortions are especially damaging to the industries in which the United States enjoys the greatest comparative advantages, but they are also harmful to the long-term prosperity of developing economies and cost the global economy trillions of dollars.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, India, and Brazil

140. The Consolidation of the Anglo-Saxon/European Consensus on Price Stability. From International Coordination to a Rule-Based Monetary Regime

Author:
Arie Krampf
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
During the 1990s, a consensus consolidated among policy makers and economists worldwide regarding the desirability of very low inflation targeting. So far, this process has been explained on the basis of a domestic- functional thesis, according to which commitment to very low inflation provides local economic gains with no costs. In this paper, I present an alternative explanation, according to which the global norm of very low inflation targeting was consolidated as a political solution to the problem of exchange rate misalignment and volatility. I argue that policy makers in Germany and the US believed that convergence of monetary policies and inflation rates, in addition to liberalization of financial markets, will stabilize exchange rates without the need for direct coordination. The paper employs the theory of liberal intergovernmentalism as a benchmark to explain the choice of the European and the G-5/7 countries to establish a low-inflation rule-based international monetary regime. The paper concludes that the regime of very low inflation targeting was consolidated as a politically viable solution to a political problem rather than as an economic best practice. Furthermore, it concludes that the norm of very low inflation targeting was a “corer solution” that neglected the problem of exchange rate stability.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Political Economy, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

141. Independence day: A special report on North America's oil and gas boom

Author:
Martin Adams
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
The bulk of the world's proven oil reserves are concentrated in places that are hostile to the West, unstable or a combination of the two. Since the US is the world's largest importer of oil, concerns about energy security have long simmered in Washington. On top of this, global oil prices have hit new highs in recent years and remained persistently strong. This adds to anxieties about the security of energy supplies and places a burden on the US economy. Partly as a result of elevated prices, however, something new—and, arguably, revolutionary—has happened.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States and North America

142. Forging a New Strategic Partnership between Canada and Mexico

Author:
Perrin Beatty and Andrés Rozental
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Both Canada and Mexico are recovering well from the global economic recession of 2008-2009, but must work harder to make their bilateral relationship work to their mutual benefit. Bilateral trade and investment have grown steadily from very low pre-North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) levels, but there remains enormous, untapped potential, particularly in Mexico. Student, tourist, investor and temporary worker exchanges are enhancing familiarity with each other, but unhelpful stereotypes remain common. New investment and trade opportunities should flow from the new Mexican administration's commitment to open up the energy sector to foreign participation. The assessment and recommendations contained in this special report point to the benefit of efforts that will intensify bilateral partnerships, not only in their own right, but also in strengthening the two countries' ability to deal more effectively with the United States in pursuing matters of mutual concern.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, Latin America, North America, and Mexico

143. Fiscal and Generational Imbalances and Generational Accounts: A 2012 Update

Author:
Jagadeesh Gokhale
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Official federal budget accounts are constructed exclusively in terms of current cash flows – receipts from taxes and fees and outlays on purchases and transfers. But cash-flows do not reveal economically relevant information about who benefits and who loses from government policies. Cash flows also do not reveal how changes in government's policies redistribute resources within and across generations, including reducing the tax burden on today's generations and increasing it on future ones. Because most government transact ions are targeted by age and gender, the federal government can bring about large resource transfers across generations. Intergenerational resource transfers will grow larger as the composition of budget receipts and expenditures changes with relatively faster growth of age-and-gender-related social insurance program. Intergenerational redistributions across generations through federal government operations could substantially affect different generations' economic expectations and choices and exert powerful long-term effects on economic outcomes.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Health, Human Welfare, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States

144. Central Banks: Reform or Abolish?

Author:
Gerald P. O'Driscoll Jr.
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Advocates of central bank reform must examine why central banks emerged and what forces sustain them. They did not arise in an institutional vacuum, and will not be reformed in an institutional vacuum. The historical origins of central banks explain how they came into existence. The forces sustaining and feeding their growth may differ from those explaining their origin.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States

145. The Misuse of Top 1 Percent Income Shares as a Measure of Inequality

Author:
Alan Reynolds
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
This paper confirms recent studies which find little or no sustained increase in the inequality of disposable income for the U.S. population as a whole over the past 20 years, even though estimates of the top 1 percent's share of pretax, pretransfer (market) income spiked upward in 1986-88, 1997-2000 and 2003-2007.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Markets, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
United States

146. ASEAN's Future and Asian Integration

Author:
Joshua Kurlantzick
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
In a region largely bereft of regional organizations and long divided by the Cold War, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been the most significant multilateral group for the past forty-five years. Since the end of the Cold War, ASEAN has grown increasingly influential. While much of the West and most emerging markets continue to suffer because of the 2008 global recession, the leading ASEAN economies have recovered and are thriving. Perhaps most important, ASEAN has helped prevent interstate conflicts in Southeast Asia, despite several brewing territorial disputes in the region.
Topic:
Cold War, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

147. Transactions: A New Look at Services Sector Foreign Direct Investment in Asia

Author:
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In this paper Kirkegaard presents new micro-level data consisting of individual greenfield investment projects and mergers and acquisitions as a source for detailed analysis of services sector cross-border investment flows among the Asian Development Bank (ADB) regional membership in Asia. The new transactional foreign direct investment (FDI) data are methodologically distinct from traditional BPM5-compliant FDI data but found to yield generally comparable aggregates, when compared with the latest available International Monetary Fund (IMF) data from the Comprehensive Direct Investment Survey for the ADB regional membership. The services sectors are found to receive considerably larger amounts of foreign investment, when compared with the Asian region's manufacturing and raw materials sectors. OECD countries account for roughly three-quarters of total recorded inward services sector FDI of about $2 trillion, relatively evenly split between the United States, the EU-27, and regional OECD-level-income countries. The presence of sizable regional "upward flowing" services sector investments into OECD-level-income economies is verified. Kirkegaard draws preliminary policy conclusions based on the new transactional FDI data results concerning prospects for regional services sector liberalization, threshold income levels for inward services sector FDI, upward-flowing regional services FDI, and preferred modes of services sector investments.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, and Asia

148. The Dollar and Its Discontents

Author:
Olivier Jeanne
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Has the US dollar delivered the benefit that the rest of the world is expecting from its holdings of international liquidity? US government debt has been liquid and safe, and it is supplied in sufficient quantity. But it has given a low return to the countries that accumulated the most reserves, especially when those returns are measured in terms of the countries' own consumption. Jeanne argues that countries that accumulate the most reserves should expect a low return in terms of their own consumption and that international monetary reform can do little to change that fact.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

149. Lessons Learned from AIDS 2012

Author:
Suzanne Brundage and J. Stephen Morrison
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
From July 22 to July 27, 2012, Washington, D.C., was host to the International AIDS Conference, the biannual Super Bowl of global health and the preeminent forum for reviewing the science, policy, programs, and politics in the fight against HIV/AIDS.
Topic:
Economics, Health, Humanitarian Aid, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Washington

150. Boatloads of Growth: Recapturing America's Share of Asia-Pacific Trade

Author:
Ed Gerwin
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
By 2020, the Asia-Pacific's $10 trillion import market will present vast opportunities to support U.S. economic growth and wider prosperity for America's Middle Class. But, over the past decade, the U.S. share of key Asia-Pacific markets has actually plummeted–by over 40%. Retaking America's share of these rapidly expanding economies—beginning with trade deals like the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP)—could pay huge dividends: over a half trillion dollars in additional U.S. exports, supporting millions of good American jobs.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Asia

151. The Economy Is Slowing, But Perhaps Not For Long

Author:
Irwin M. Stelzer
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Slow, slower, and may be even stop. That's a quick summary of how Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke sees the US economy. The economy grew at an annual rate of 2.5% last year, 1.9% in the first quarter of this year, "and available indicators point to a still-smaller gain in the second quarter" he advised congress last week. Household spending is slowing down because "confidence remains relatively low" (at its lowest level since December); numerous factors (a supply overhang, unavailability of credit) "impede growth" in the housing sector; manufacturing production has slowed; business investment has "decelerated"; there is "further weakness ahead" for investment demand; and "reduction in the unemployment rate seems likely to be frustratingly slow."
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

152. Fear Athens Less and Washington More

Author:
Irwin M. Stelzer
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
There comes a tide in the affairs of men And the one sweeping from Greece, across Europe and into the United States is washing away support for austerity, in some cases reinforcing opposition to it, largely from the Left. President Obama is delighted at this support for his refusal to cut spending in the face of mounting deficits, and the Republicans are feeling beleaguered at what they see as the disinterment of the body of works of John Maynard Keynes. No longer must the President sit at G8 meetings (in this weekend's case, G7 since Vladimir Putin finds it necessary to stay at home to deal with an unpleasant spate of dissent) and hear only the voice of Germany's iron Chancellor, Angela Merkel, extolling the virtues of thrift, austerity and balanced budgets. Now he has France's new socialist President, François Hollande, to preach the virtues of spending, "the indispensable stimulation of the economy", and, even better, high taxes-- up to 75% on incomes in excess of $1.35 million per year, which makes the team of Buffett and Obama mere pikers at the soak-the-rich game. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expressed the administration's delight at Hollande's "different political approach Different voices may be louder on growth than they have been It's been our view that there needed to be adjustments to austerity, so that there could be growth, both for economic reasons and for political reasons President Obama and our economic team have been saying for some time that growth had to factor into a European recovery." Take that, Mrs. Merkel and all you Republicans who want to cut entitlement spending and retain the Bush tax cuts that benefit "millionaires and billionaires", Obama shorthand for families earning more than $250,000 per year.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Budget
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Washington, Greece, and France

153. How Safe Is the U.S. Safe Haven?

Author:
Irwin M. Stelzer
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
This version of the glorious sonnet composed by Emma Lazarus in 1883, and later engraved on a bronze plaque installed on the Statue of Liberty, calling the world's huddled masses to our shores, captures what it means these days to be a safe haven. Just as America proved to be such a safe haven for immigrants in the latter 19th and early 20th centuries, it is now seen as a safe haven for wealth attempting to escape Europe's tax collectors and financial chaos and recession in Europe, and for foreign central banks newly enamored of the dollar.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Immigration, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Germany

154. A Rapidly Changing Energy World, Or Perhaps Not

Author:
Irwin M. Stelzer
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Slow growth here and in China, and recession in Europe are reducing demand for oil. Inventories in the U.S. are at a 22-year high. The Federal Reserve Board's QEs that pumped paper money into the economy and drove up the nominal price of oil have come to an end. And the twelve OPEC oil cartelists, who between them supply 40% of the world's oil, are producing 1.6 million barrels in excess of the agreed daily quota of 30 million barrels. As a result, U.S. benchmark crude oil prices are now closer to $80 per barrel than to the $110 they reached only four months ago.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Europe

155. Inheriting Recessions

Author:
Tim Kane
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Three of the last six U.S. presidents have inherited a recessionary economy: Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama. Let's define "inheriting a recession" as meaning that on the date a president is sworn into office, the economy is technically still in recession or enters one within a few months. Most economists would agree that presidents have little short-term control over the economy, but that their fiscal policies can be implemented quickly and affect macroeconomic performance after the first year. Reagan, inaugurated in January 1981, actually endured a double-dip recession-one that had been raging since early 1980 and a second that hit in July 1981-but the economy experienced a strong and sustained recovery that began in November 1982 during his second year in the White House. Bush was inaugurated in January 2001, and the economy entered recession just weeks later. Obama entered office in January 2009, like Reagan, after the United States had been in recession for a full year.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States

156. Envisioning 2030: US Strategy for a Post-Western World

Author:
Robert A. Manning
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The National Intelligence Council in its new report, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, argues that the historic moment the Obama Administration now confronts “recalls past transition points–such as 1815, 1919, 1945, and 1989–when the path forward was not clear-cut and the world faced the possibility of different global futures.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Globalization, Politics, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Atlantic Ocean

157. The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) Negotiations: Overview and Prospects

Author:
Deborah Elms and C. L. Lim
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a trade agreement currently under negotiation between nine countries in three continents, including Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, United States and Vietnam. In late 2011 three additional countries--Japan, Canada and Mexico--announced their intention to join as well. The TPP has always been called a "high quality, 21st century" agreement that covers a range of topics not always found in free trade agreements. This includes not just trade in goods, services and investment, but also intellectual property rights, government procurement, labor, environment, regulations, and small and medium enterprises. This paper traces the complex negotiations and evolution of the talks since the early 2000s to the present.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Labor Issues, and Intellectual Property/Copyright
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Malaysia, Canada, Israel, Vietnam, Latin America, Australia, Australia/Pacific, Mexico, Singapore, Chile, Peru, New Zealand, and Brunei

158. Still a Better Deal: Private Investment vs. Social Security

Author:
Michael Tanner
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Opponents of allowing younger workers to privately invest a portion of their Social Security taxes through personal accounts have long pointed to the supposed riskiness of private investment. The volatility of private capital markets over the past several years, and especially recent declines in the stock market, have seemed to bolster their argument.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

159. Women's economic opportunity 2012: A global index and ranking from the Economist Intelligence Unit

Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
Women are a key driver of economic growth. In the second half of the 20th century, the entry of women into the workforce helped to propel most of the world's developed economies. In the United States, an expanded pool of workers—from the emergence of the baby-boom generation and the rising number of women in the workplace—added nearly 2 percentage points a year to economic growth. Since 1995, the narrowing gap between male and female employment has accounted for a quarter of Europe's annual GDP growth. Today, women in the developing world are poised to have a similar impact—if they can be properly educated, equipped and empowered.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Gender Issues, International Trade and Finance, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States

160. Turkey and the Bomb

Author:
Sinan Ülgen
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Though most states that want a nuclear weapon can get one through determined effort, the fact remains that most choose not to proliferate. Turkey is no exception. Not even the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran is likely to push Ankara to develop its own nuclear weapons. The only circumstance where such a scenario would acquire a degree of likelihood is a breakdown in Turkey's security relationship with the United States.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Nuclear Weapons, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Turkey, and Middle East

161. U.S. Education Reform and National Security

Author:
Joel I. Klein, Condoleezza Rice, and Julia Levy
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Mission Statement. The Council on Foreign Relations is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members, government officials, business executives, journalists, educators and students, civic and religious leaders, and other interested citizens in order to help them better understand the world and the foreign policy choices facing the United States and other countries. Founded in 1921, the Council takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. The Council carries out its mission by: Maintaining a diverse membership, including special programs to promote interest and develop expertise in the next generation of foreign policy leaders; Convening meetings at its headquarters in New York and in Washington, DC, and other cities where senior government officials, members of Congress, global leaders, and prominent thinkers come together with Council members to discuss and debate major international issues; Supporting a Studies Program that fosters independent research, enabling Council scholars to produce articles, reports, and books and hold roundtables that analyze foreign policy issues and make concrete policy recommendations; Publishing Foreign Affairs, the preeminent journal of international affairs and U.S. foreign policy; Sponsoring Independent Task Forces that produce reports with both findings and policy prescriptions on the most important foreign policy topics; and Providing up-to-date information and analysis about world events and American foreign policy on its website, CFR.org.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Globalization, and National Security
Political Geography:
United States, New York, America, and Washington

162. U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Impact of Latin America, Africa and Peripheral States

Author:
Brandon Fite
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Iran pursues cooperation with states on the geographic and strategic periphery of the competition between the US and Iran in order to create a network of diplomatic and economic relationships or “partners” that can lessen the blow of international sanctions and generally oppose Western attempts to constrict its ambitions. These peripheral “partners” located mainly in Africa and Latin America, also serve as alternative markets for Iranian oil, provide diplomatic cover for Iran's nuclear efforts, and aid Iran's acquisition of goods proscribed by international sanctions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Iran, and Latin America

163. China and Afghanistan: China's Interests, Stances, and Perspectives

Author:
Huasheng Zhao
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
China holds clear, coherent, but relatively low-profile positions on Afghanistan. While staying largely with the mainstream of the international community on the issue of Afghanistan, China maintains an independent policy that reflects the peculiarities of Chinese interests, concerns, and priorities in Afghanistan. China has multiple interests in Afghanistan; however, domestic concerns about the security and stability of the largely Muslim region of Xinjiang overwhelm all others. China maintains normal and good relations with the Afghan government, takes active part in the country's economic rebuilding, and provides Afghanistan financial aid and other assistance. China supports the international community in its efforts in Afghanistan, but stays away from direct military involvement. China refrains from criticizing America's involvement in the war in Afghan- istan, but it doubts the war's efficacy, and China refuses to join the American Northern Distribu- tion Network (NDN) to Afghanistan. China dislikes the Taliban because of its close relations with the “East Turkistan” organization—a Uyghur separatist group—but China deals with the Taliban cautiously, trying to avoid direct conflict. China favors an Afghanistan governed by Afghans and hopes that the “Kabul process”—the transition to greater Afghan responsibility and ownership in both security and civilian areas—will have a successful end. At the same time, China also prepares for unexpected outcomes.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, China, and Asia

164. Country Forecast: Global outlook

Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
Three years after the global economy reached its lowest point in three-quarters of a century, the recovery remains incomplete and the outlook uncertain. On March 9th 2009, the capitalisation of Morgan Stanley\'s global stockmarket index fell to US$26trn, nearly 60% below its 2007 peak. Today, the value of the world\'s stockmarkets has yet to return to the pre-crisis level—nor has the confidence of most consumers and businesses. The excesses of the last ten years—the personal debt accumulated early in the last decade and the public debt added during the recession—have saddled many countries with weak economic foundations and little or no resilience to shocks. This has left the US economy, in particular, struggling for a third straight year to lock in faster growth. It has left debt-ravaged Europe in recession and China manoeuvring unsteadily to deflate a bubble. On the brighter side, the global economy will grow again this year and the imbalances that built up over the past decade will continue to unwind. But global growth will be slower this year than last, and a host of risks—from elevated oil prices to war in the Middle East, to the collapse of Europe\'s single currency—will weigh on confidence and reduce spending and investment.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Markets, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Middle East

165. Rising Democracies and the Arab Awakening: Implications for Global Democracy and Human Rights

Author:
Ted Piccone and Emily Alinikoff
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
As the emerging global order takes shape, debate is growing more intense around the trajectory of the rising powers and what their ascendency to positions of regional and international influence means for the United States, its traditional allies, and global governance more broadly. Commentary about these rising powers— often referred to in a generic way as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) but actually encompassing a dozen or so countries largely represented in the G-20—ranges from alarmist to sanguine. Pessimists argue that China, with its impressive economic growth and increasingly global reach, is well-positioned to challenge the United States' role of global superpower and to weaken the commitment of other rising powers, and various international organizations, to liberal values. More optimistic analysts insist that the rise of middle powers, most of which are democracies of varying stripes, bodes well for the world: millions are being lifted out of poverty, rule of law is taking hold and the international system is bound to be a more inclusive, representative one.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, Globalization, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Poverty, and Governance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, India, South Africa, Brazil, and Arabia

166. Energizing Rio+20: How the United States Can Promote Sustainable Energy for All at the 2012 Earth Summit

Author:
Nigel Purvis and Abigail Jones
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Worldwide, about 1.3 billion people lack access to electricity (one in five people), while unreliable electricity networks serve another 1 billion people. Roughly 2.7 billion—about 40 percent of the global population—lack access to clean cooking fuels. Instead, dirty, sometimes scarce and expensive fuels such as kerosene, candles, wood, animal waste, and crop residues power the lives of the energy poor, who pay disproportionately high costs and receive very poor quality in return. More than 95 percent of the energy poor are either in sub-Saharan Africa or developing Asia, while 84 percent are in rural areas—the same regions that are the most vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Asia

167. Beyond Federalism: Estimating and Explaining the Territorial Structure of Government

Author:
Liesbet Hooghe and Gary Marks
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
This paper suggests that the basic distinction between federal and unitary government has limited as well as served our understanding of government. The notion that variation in the structure of government is a difference of kind rather than degree has straight-jacketed attempts to estimate the authority of intermediate government. One result has been the claim that a country\'s footprint, not its population, is decisive for government. Analyzing data for 39 countries since 1950, and comparing our own findings with those of alternative measurements, we find evidence for the causal effect of population. This can be theorized in terms of a trade-off between responsiveness to soft information and per capita economies in public good provision.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

168. The Quest for Political Reform in Azerbaijan: What Role for the Transatlantic Community?

Author:
Anar Valiyev
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
As Azerbaijan celebrates its 20th anniversary of independence, democratic development remains a key challenge facing the country. Despite the fact that Azerbaijan successfully coped with immediate problems such as poverty reduction and economic and political stability, the need to reform the public administration and decentralize governance has become particularly urgent. The main problems, however, remain the same: low public trust in institutions, the absence of a democratic political culture and the lack of bridging social capital. In this regard, the assistance of the Transatlantic Community is necessary. The European Union and the United States should pursue a developmental approach to democracy promotion in Azerbaijan, which has higher chances to succeed than a more explicitly political approach, considering the weak institutional capacity in the country.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, Poverty, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Azerbaijan

169. A Northern Tiger? Canada's Economic and Fiscal Renaissance and its Implications for the United States

Author:
Jeremy A. Leonard
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
As the United States struggles to find a politically acceptable and economically sensible solution to its severe fiscal crisis, hidden in plain sight just North of the 49th parallel is an example that ought to be considered more carefully. Quietly, but steadily, under governments of all political stripes, Canada has profoundly re-structured its economy, gotten its fiscal house in order, created a competitive business tax environment, and come into its own as a strong economic player in North America and beyond.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States and Canada

170. America's Voluntary Standards System—A "Best Practice" Model for Innovation Policy?

Author:
Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
For its proponents, America's voluntary standards system is a "best practice" model for innovation policy. Foreign observers however are concerned about possible drawbacks of a standards system that is largely driven by the private sector. There are doubts, especially in Europe and China, whether the American system can balance public and private interests in times of extraordinary national and global challenges to innovation.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Europe

171. The Negative Effects of Minimum Wage Laws

Author:
Mark Wilson
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The federal government has imposed a minimum wage since 1938, and nearly all the states impose their own minimum wages. These laws prevent employers from paying wages below a mandated level. While the aim is to help workers, decades of economic research show that minimum wages usually end up harming workers and the broader economy. Minimum wages particularly stifle job opportunities for low-skill workers, youth, and minorities, which are the groups that policymakers are often trying to help with these policies.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States

172. The Great Streetcar Conspiracy

Author:
Randal O'Toole
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Streetcars are the latest urban planning fad, stimulated partly by the Obama administration's preference for funding transportation projects that promote "livability" (meaning living without automobiles) rather than mobility or cost-effective transportation. Toward that end, the administration wants to eliminate cost-effectiveness requirements for federal transportation grants, instead allowing non-cost-effective grants for projects promoting so-called livability. In anticipation of this change, numerous cities are preparing to apply for federal funds to build streetcar lines.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Government, Political Economy, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
United States

173. Competition in Currency: The Potential for Private Money

Author:
Thomas L. Hogan
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Privately issued money can benefit consumers in many ways, particularly in the areas of value stability and product variety. Decentralized currency production can benefit consumers by reducing inflation and increasing economic stability. Unlike a central bank, competing private banks must attract customers by providing innovative products, restricting the quantity of notes issued, and limiting the riskiness of their investing activities. Although the Federal Reserve currently has a de facto monopoly on the provision of currency in the United States, this was not always the case. Throughout most of U.S. history, private banks issued their own banknotes as currency. This practice continues today in a few countries and could be reinstituted in the United States with minimal changes to the banking system.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States

174. Questioning Homeownership as a Public Policy Goal

Author:
Morris A. Davis
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
For decades U.S. housing policy has focused on promoting homeownership. In this study, I show that the set of policies designed to further homeownership has been ineffective and expensive and that homeownership as a public policy goal is not well supported.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Markets, and Urbanization
Political Geography:
United States

175. Ending Congestion by Refinancing Highways

Author:
Randal O'Toole
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Although gasoline taxes have long been the main source of funding for building, maintaining, and operating America's network of highways, roads, and streets, the tax is at best an imperfect user fee. As such, Congress and the states should take action to transition from gas taxes to more efficient vehicle-mile fees.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Communications, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
United States

176. The American Welfare State: How We Spend Nearly $1 Trillion a Year Fighting Poverty—And Fail

Author:
Michael Tanner
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
News that the poverty rate has risen to 15.1 percent of Americans, the highest level in nearly a decade, has set off a predictable round of calls for increased government spending on social welfare programs. Yet this year the federal government will spend more than $668 billion on at least 126 different programs to fight poverty. And that does not even begin to count welfare spending by state and local governments, which adds $284 billion to that figure. In total, the United States spends nearly $1 trillion every year to fight poverty. That amounts to $20,610 for every poor person in America, or $61,830 per poor family of three.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Poverty
Political Geography:
United States and America

177. What Made the Financial Crisis Systemic?

Author:
Patric H. Hendershott and Kevin Villani
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The current narrative regarding the 2008 systemic financial system collapse is that numerous seemingly unrelated events occurred in unregulated or underregulated markets, requiring widespread bailouts of actors across the financial spectrum, from mortgage borrowers to investors in money market funds. The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, created by the U.S. Congress to investigate the causes of the crisis, promotes this politically convenient narrative, and the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act operationalizes it by completing the progressive extension of federal protection and regulation of banking and finance that began in the 1930s so that it now covers virtually all financial activities, including hedge funds and proprietary trading. The Dodd-Frank Act further charges the newly created Financial Stability Oversight Council, made up of politicians, bureaucrats, and university professors, with preventing a subsequent systemic crisis.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Markets, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

178. Entrepreneurship in Postconflict Zones

Author:
Gayle Tzemach Lemmon
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Economic development is a critical component of promoting stability and U.S. security interests, particularly in conflict and postconflict zones. Reviving institutions and rebuilding an economic base are among the first priorities after fighting ends and reconstruction begins. According to the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), negative economic shocks of just 5 percent can increase the risk of a civil war by as much as 50 percent in fragile environments. Additionally, donor assistance, which can account for 20 percent to as much as 97 percent of a country's GDP, is unsustainable in the long term. Building local business capacity and supporting homegrown entrepreneurs can help curb this risk. Research from Iraq has found that labor-generating reconstruction programs can reduce violence during insurgencies, with a 10 percent increase in labor-related spending associated with a 10 percent decrease in violence. And as Shari Berenbach, director of the Office of Microenterprise Development at USAID, argues, the development of “private enterprise is an important stabilizing force,” particularly for countries suffering from the political uncertainty and civil unrest that often characterizes the postconflict period.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States

179. The FY2013 Defense Budget, the Threat of Defense Cuts and Sequestration and the Strategy-Reality Gap

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Robert M. Shelala II
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The US may not face peer threats in the near to mid term, but it faces a wide variety of lesser threats that make maintaining effective military forces, foreign aid, and other national security programs a vital national security interest. The US does need to reshape its national security planning and strategy to do a far better job of allocating resources to meet these threats. It needs to abandon theoretical and conceptual exercises in strategy that do not focus on detailed force plans, manpower plans, procurement plans, and budgets; and use its resources more wisely. The US still dominates world military spending, but it must recognize that maintaining the US economy is a vital national security interest in a world where the growth and development of other nations and regions means that the relative share the US has in the global economy will decline steadily over time, even under the best circumstances. At the same time, US dependence on the security and stability of the global economy will continue to grow indefinitely in the future. Talk of any form of "independence," including freedom from energy imports, is a dangerous myth. The US cannot maintain and grow its economy without strong military forces and effective diplomatic and aid efforts. US military and national security spending already places a far lower burden on the US economy than during the peaceful periods of the Cold War, and existing spending plans will lower that burden in the future. National security spending is now averaging between 4% and 5% of the GDP -- in spite of the fact the US has been fighting two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan -- versus 6-7% during the Cold War.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, Government, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Iraq

180. Interim Report-Planning for a Deep Defense Drawdown—Part I

Author:
Clark A. Murdock
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
As the defense budget is reduced in the coming years, the Department of Defense (DoD) will be confronted with not one but two budgetary threats: it will face not only fewer defense dollars but also a weakening defense dollar in terms of purchasing power. This weaker defense dollar, driven by the internal cost inflation of personnel, operations and maintenance (O), and acquisition accounts in particular, threatens to hollow out the defense budget from within. -
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States

181. U.S. Department of Defense Services Contract Spending and the Supporting Industrial Base, 2000-2011

Author:
David J. Berteau, Guy Ben-Ari, Gregory Sanders, Jesse Ellman, and David Morrow
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Spending by the Department of Defense (DoD) on services contracts, which range from clerical and administrative work to vehicle maintenance to research and development (R), has been largely neglected by past studies of DoD spending trends. Yet DoD spending on services contract actions amounted to just under $200 billion in 2011, more than 50 percent of total DoD contract spending and nearly a third of the entire DoD budget. Both the executive branch and Congress have implemented policies to improve acquisitions of services, but the impacts of their efforts remain uncertain without a clear, concise analysis of past spending. And the then Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics, Dr. Ashton Carter, has stated that: “Most of our services acquires, unlike weapons-system acquires, are amateurs… I intend to help them get better at it” (Speech at the Heritage Foundation, April 20, 2011).
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, Government, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States

182. From Strength to Empowerment: The Next Generation of U.S.-Malaysia Relations

Author:
Murray Hiebert, Ernest Z. Bower, Elina Noor, Mahani Zainal Abidin, Gregory Poling, and Tham Siew Yean
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Relations between the United States and Malaysia are at an all-time high. Since President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Najib Razak entered office in 2009, both countries' governments have committed to a new beginning and moved to establish closer ties through increased political, economic, and people-to-people cooperation.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States and Malaysia

183. The US Cost of the Afghan War: FY2002-FY2013: Cost in Military Operating Expenditures and Aid, and Prospects for "Transition."

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
It is surprisingly difficult to get a meaningful estimate of the total cost of the Afghan conflict, total spending on Afghan forces and total spending on various forms of aid. More data are available on US efforts – which have dominated military and aid spending, but even these data present serious problems in reliability, consistency, and definition. Moreover, it is only since FY2012 that the US provided an integrated request for funding for the war as part of its annual budget request. The data for the period before FY2009 are accurate pictures of the Department of Defense request, but there is only a CRS estimate of total spending the previous years.
Topic:
Economics and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

184. Libertarian Roots of the Tea Party

Author:
David Kirby and Emily McClintock Ekins
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Many people on the left still dismiss the tea party as the same old religious right, but the evidence says they are wrong. The tea party has strong libertarian roots and is a functionally libertarian influence on the Republican Party.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Politics, Insurgency, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

185. Regulation, Market Structure, and Role of the Credit Rating Agencies

Author:
Mark A. Calabria and Emily McClintock Ekins
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
During the financial crisis of 2008, the financial markets would have been better served if the credit rating agency industry had been more competitive. We present evidence that suggests the Securities and Exchange Commission's designation of Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations (NRSROs) inadvertently created a de facto oligopoly, which primarily propped up three firms: Moody's, S, and Fitch. We also explain the rationale behind the NRSRO designation given to credit rating agencies (CRAs) and demonstrate that it was not intended to be an oligopolistic mechanism or to reduce investor due diligence, but rather was intended to protect consumers. Although CRAs were indirectly constrained by their reputation among investors, the lack of competition allowed for greater market complacency. Government regulatory use of credit ratings inflated the market demand for NRSRO ratings, despite the decreasing informational value of credit ratings. It is unlikely that this sort of regulatory framework could result in anything except misaligned incentives among economic actors and distorted market information that provides inaccurate signals to investors and other financial actors. Given the importance of our capital infrastructure and the power of credit rating agencies in our financial markets, and despite the good intentions of the uses of the NRSRO designation, it is not worth the cost and should be abolished. Regulators should work to eliminate regulatory reliance on credit ratings for financial safety and soundness. These regulatory reforms will, in turn, reduce CRA oligopolistic power and the artificial demand for their ratings.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States

186. Corporate Welfare in the Federal Budget

Author:
Tad DeHaven
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Rising federal spending and huge deficits are pushing the nation toward a financial and economic crisis. Policymakers should find and eliminate wasteful, damaging, and unneeded programs in the federal budget. One good way to save money would be to cut subsidies to businesses. Corporate welfare in the federal budget costs taxpayers almost $100 billion a year.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

187. By Invitation, Mostly: the International Politics of the US Security Presence, China, and the South China Sea

Author:
Christopher Freise
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Much attention has been devoted to the Obama Administration's “Pacific Pivot” and the vocal reassertion of an upgraded security, economic, and diplomatic presence in East Asia by the United States. Commentators have ascribed various rationales to these efforts, including speculation that this is part of a “containment” strategy towards China, a reaction to the US presidential election cycle, or, more benignly, an effort to forestall concerns of American withdrawal from the region. These explanations have some elements of truth, but also fall short of fully describing or understanding the strategic rationale behind these moves.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, and Asia

188. Extreme Weather, Extreme Prices: The costs of feeding a warming world

Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Climate change is making extreme weather – like droughts, floods and heat waves – much more likely. As the 2012 drought in the US shows, extreme weather means extreme food prices. Our failure to slash greenhouse gas emissions presents a future of greater food price volatility, with severe consequences for the precarious lives and livelihoods of people in poverty.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Economics, and Food
Political Geography:
United States

189. The Afghan War: Creating the Economic Conditions and Civil-Military Aid Efforts Needed For Transition

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman, Sean T. Mann, and Bryan Gold
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In a little over two years the US and its allies plan to hand over security and other responsibilities to the Afghan government as part of a process labeled “Transition.” Afghanistan is still at war and will probably be at war long after 2014. The political, governance, and economic dimensions of this Transition, however, will be as important as any developments in the fighting.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Economics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

190. The FY2013 Defense Budget, Deficits, Cost-Escalation, and Sequestration

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Robert Shelala II
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The US may not face peer threats in the near to mid term, but it faces a wide variety of lesser threats that make maintaining effective military forces, foreign aid, and other national security programs a vital national security interest. The US does need to reshape its national security planning and strategy to do a far better job of allocating resources to meet these threats. It needs to abandon theoretical and conceptual exercises in strategy that do not focus on detailed force plans, manpower plans, procurement plans, and budgets; and use its resources more wisely. The US still dominates world military spending, but it must recognize that maintaining the US economy is a vital national security interest in a world where the growth and development of other nations and regions means that the relative share the US has in the global economy will decline steadily over time, even under the best circumstances. At the same time, US dependence on the security and stability of the global economy will continue to grow indefinitely in the future. Talk of any form of “independence,” including freedom from energy imports, is a dangerous myth. The US cannot maintain and grow its economy without strong military forces and effective diplomatic and aid efforts. US military and national security spending already places a far lower burden on the US economy than during the peaceful periods of the Cold War, and existing spending plans will lower that burden in the future. National security spending is now averaging between 4% and 5% of the GDP – in spite of the fact the US has been fighting two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan – versus 6-7% during the Cold War.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Asia

191. Economic Effects of Reductions in Defense Outlays

Author:
Benjamin Zycher
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
This study examines the prospective economic effects of a reduction below the current baseline in defense outlays of $100 billion per year over 10 years.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Economics, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States

192. Housing Policy in the U.S.: The Evolving Sub-national Role

Author:
Robert M. Buckley and Alex F. Schwartz
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper provides a general overview of U.S. housing policy, with emphasis on state and local programs. Despite the focus on local programs we also discuss the broader national policy environment. This broader context is necessary because national policies play a crucial role in shaping the country's housing markets. We briefly trace out some of the key features of the housing market, highlighting tenure distributions, housing conditions and costs. Particular emphasis is given to the role of increasing housing costs and the housing opportunities of the poor. The paper also describes: (1) the nation's housing finance and tax systems, focusing on the different ways the government uses the tax code to subsidize homeowners and renters; and (2) state and local government programs, often implemented in the close collaboration of nonprofit organizations. A final section provides a brief overview of the strengths and weaknesses of U.S. housing policy and the evolving role of sub-national governments.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

193. Asia's Energy Future: Regional Dynamics and Global Implications

Author:
Kang Wu and Fereidun Fesharaki
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Energy security ranks as one of the highest-priority issues in Asia and the Pacific. The East and South Asia region is the fastest-growing oil consumer in the world, and because this region has such a small percentage of the world's oil reserves, it is the most highly dependent on oil imports of any world region. In the future, Asia will become even more dependent on imports as its energy needs expand with changing life styles and overall economic growth. Asia's increasing energy needs have important implications for energy security throughout the world, and particularly in the United States. Like Asia, the United States is a large and growing importer of crude oil and petroleum products. It is also becoming a direct competitor with the East Asian economies for imported liquefied natural gas (LNG). This volume is intended to provide Asians and Americans with the factual information they need for clear understanding, informed policy dialogue, and effective cooperation on issues related to energy security. The United States and Asia have much in common in terms of their basic energy situation. Both regions have enormous hydrocarbon reserves in the form of coal, but both must import huge quantities of liquid hydrocarbons in the forms of oil and natural gas. The United States has an economy and a life style highly dependent upon imported energy, and increasingly, so does Asia. The environmental implications of energy use are of growing concern in both regions. Both share a common stake in an assured supply of oil and natural gas, in price stability in international energy markets, in efficient and sustainable use of oil and gas products, and in the development of technologies and fuel alternatives that can alleviate energy security and environmental concerns.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, Energy Policy, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

194. Inward FDI in Norway and its policy context

Author:
Leo A. Grünfeld and Gabriel R.G. Benito
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Norwegian inward foreign direct investment (IFDI) has increased rapidly since 2000. A stock of US$ 30 billion in 2000 grew by almost 300% to US$ 116 bill ion by 2009, a growth stronger than that of most other OECD member countries. The development of Norwegian IFDI has been rather uneven, with stable periods punctuated by boom years. IFDI in 2008 was lower than in 2007, partly reflecting the cooling down of the world economy as a result of the international financial and economic crisis. The latest available data indicate that IFDI remained in a slump in 2009. The composition of Norwegian IFDI largely follows the structure of Norway's private-sector economy, with a clear dominance of the oil and gas sector. The manufacturing sector is gradually losing its appeal to foreign investors, although more slowly than one would expect considering the reduced importance of this sector in the Norwegian economy.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States

195. The Coming Turkish-Iranian Competition In

Author:
Sean Kane
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The two rising powers in the Middle East—Turkey and Iran—are neighbors to Iraq, its leading trading partners, and rapidly becoming the most influential external actors inside the country as the U.S. troop withdrawal proceeds. Although there is concern in Washington about bilateral cooperation between Turkey and Iran, their differing visions for the broader Middle East region are particularly evident in Iraq, where a renewal of the historical Ottoman-Persian rivalry in Mesopotamia is likely as the dominant American presence fades. Turkey aims for a robust Iraqi political process in which no single group dominates, sees a strong Iraq as contributing to both its own security and regional stability, and is actively investing in efforts to expand Iraqi oil and gas production to help meet its own energy needs and fulfill its goal of becoming the energy conduit from the Middle East to Europe. Iran prefers a passive neighbor with an explicitly sectarian political architecture that ensures friendly Shiite-led governments; sees a strong Iraq as an inherent obstacle to its own broader influence in the region and, in the nightmare scenario, once again possibly a direct conventional military threat; and looks askance at increased Iraqi hydrocarbon production as possible competition for its own oil exports. Baghdad meanwhile believes that it can become a leader in the Middle East but is still struggling to define an inclusive national identity and develop a foreign policy based on consensus. In its current fractured state, Iraq tends to invites external interference and is subsumed into the wider regional confrontation between the Sunni Arab defenders of the status quo and the “resistance axis” led by Shiite Iran. Turkey has an opening in Iraq because it is somewhat removed from this toxic Arab-Persian divide, welcomes a strong Iraq, and offers the Iraqi economy integration with international markets. Ankara could now allay Iraqi Shiite suspicions that it intends to act as a Sunni power in the country and not allow issues on which Turkish and Iraqi interests deviate to set the tone for their relationship. The U.S. conceptualization of an increased Turkish influence in Iraq as a balance to Iran's is limited and could undermine Turkey's core advantages by steering it towards a counterproductive sectarian approach. A more productive U.S. understanding is of Turkey as a regional power with the greatest alignment of interests in a strong, stable, and selfsufficient country that the Iraqis want and that the Obama administration has articulated as the goal of its Iraq policy. On the regional level, a strong and stable Iraq is a possible pivot for Turkish and Iranian ambitions, enabling Ankara and hindering Tehran. Washington may well have its differences with Turkey's new foreign policy of zero problems with its neighbors, but the Turkish blend of Islam, democracy, and soft power is a far more attractive regional template than the Iranian narrative of Islamic theocracy and hard power resistance. The United States should therefore continue to welcome increased Turkish-Iraqi economic, trade, and energy ties and where possible support their development as a key part of its post-2011 strategy for Iraq and the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Imperialism, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

196. Family Planning and U.S. Foreign Policy: Ensuring U.S. Leadership for Healthy Families and Communities and Prosperous, Stable Societies

Author:
Isobel Coleman and Gayle Tzemach Lemmon
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Global demographic and health trends affect a wide range of vital U.S. foreign policy interests. These interests include the desire to promote healthy, productive families and communities, more prosperous and stable societies, resource and food security, and environmental sustainability. International family planning is one intervention that can advance all these interests in a cost-effective manner. Investments in international family planning can significantly improve maternal, infant, and child health and avert unintended pregnancies and abortions. Studies have shown that meeting the unmet need for family planning could reduce maternal deaths by approximately 35 percent, reduce abortion in developing countries by 70 percent, and reduce infant mortality by 10 to 20 percent.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Environment, and Health
Political Geography:
United States

197. Foreign Manufacturing Multinationals and the Transformation of the Chinese Economy: New Measurements, New Perspectives

Author:
Theodore H. Moran
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
What is the relationship between foreign manufacturing multinational corporations (MNCs) and the expansion of indigenous technological and managerial technological capabilities among Chinese firms? China has been remarkably successful in designing industrial policies, joint venture requirements, and technology transfer pressures to use FDI to create indigenous national champions in a handful of prominent sectors: high speed rail transport, information technology, auto assembly, and an emerging civil aviation sector. But what is striking in the aggregate data is how relatively thin the layer of horizontal and vertical spillovers from foreign manufacturing multinationals to indigenous Chinese firms has proven to be. Despite the large size of manufacturing FDI inflows, the impact of multinational corporate investment in China has been largely confined to building plants that incorporate capital, technology, and managerial expertise controlled by the foreigner. As the skill-intensity of exports increases, the percentage of the value of the final product that derives from imported components rises sharply. China has remained a low value-added assembler of more sophisticated inputs imported from abroad—a “workbench” economy. Where do the gains from FDI in China end up? While manufacturing MNCs may build plants in China, the largest impact from deployment of worldwide earnings is to bolster production, employment, R, and local purchases in their home markets. For the United States the most recent data show that US-headquartered MNCs have 70 percent of their operations, make 89 percent of their purchases, spend 87 percent of their R dollars, and locate more than half of their workforce within the US economy—this is where most of the earnings from FDI in China are delivered.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Israel

198. The Liquidation of Government Debt

Author:
Carmen M. Reinhart
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Historically, periods of high indebtedness have been associated with a rising incidence of default or restructuring of public and private debts. A subtle type of debt restructuring takes the form of "financial repression." Financial repression includes directed lending to government by captive domestic audiences (such as pension funds), explicit or implicit caps on interest rates, regulation of cross-border capital movements, and (generally) a tighter connection between government and banks. In this paper, the authors describe some of the regulatory measures and policy actions that characterized the heyday of the financial repression era. In the heavily regulated financial markets of the Bretton Woods system, several restrictions facilitated a sharp and rapid reduction in public debt/GDP ratios from the late 1940s to the 1970s. Low nominal interest rates help reduce debt servicing costs while a high incidence of negative real interest rates liquidates or erodes the real value of government debt. Thus, financial repression is most successful in liquidating debts when accompanied by a steady dose of inflation. Inflation need not take market participants entirely by surprise and, in effect, it need not be very high (by historical standards). For the advanced economies in Reinhart and Sbrancia's sample, real interest rates were negative roughly half of the time during 1945–80. For the United States and the United Kingdom, their estimates of the annual liquidation of debt via negative real interest rates amounted on average to 3 to 4 percent of GDP a year. For Australia and Italy, which recorded higher inflation rates, the liquidation effect was larger (around 5 percent per annum).
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States and United Kingdom

199. Capital Inadequacies: The Dismal Failure of the Basel Regime of Bank Capital Regulation

Author:
Kevin Dowd, Martin Hutchinson, Jimi Hinchliffe, and Simon Ashby
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The Basel regime is an international system of capital adequacy regulation designed to strengthen banks' financial health and the safety and soundness of the financial system as a whole. It originated with the 1988 Basel Accord, now known as Basel I, and was then overhauled. Basel II had still not been implemented in the United States when the financial crisis struck, and in the wake of the banking system collapse, regulators rushed out Basel III.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States

200. Intercity Buses: The Forgotten Mode

Author:
Randal O'Toole
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The debate over President Obama's fantastically expensive high-speed rail program has obscured the resurgence of a directly competing mode of transportation: intercity buses. Entrepreneurial immigrants from China and recently privatized British transportation companies have developed a new model for intercity bus operations that provides travelers with faster service at dramatically reduced fares.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Infrastructure, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States and China