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2602. How Shareholder Reforms Can Pay Foreign Policy Dividends
- Author:
- James J. Shinn and Peter Gourevitch
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Corporate governance—the rules that govern the relationship between managers and shareholders—belongs on the foreign policy agenda of American decision-makers. The vigorous debates underway about corporate governance, both at home and abroad, present an opportunity for the United States to advance its foreign policy goals of enhancing free trade and financial stability.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
2603. Sustaining a Revolution: A Policy for Crop Engineering
- Author:
- David Victor and C. Ford Runge
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Controversy, even fear, of new foods is not new. The tomato was widely regarded as poisonous in the United States and northern Europe as late as the 1830s, due to its relationship to the night-shade family of plants. There was such concern that in 1820, the state of New York banned their consumption. Tomatoes even had their own “Frankenfood” label: “wolf 's peaches.”
- Topic:
- Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
2604. Monetary Policy Rules and the International Monetary Transmission
- Author:
- Leonor Coutinho
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses alternative monetary policy rules for the ECB, using a two "country" model of the euro area and the US, that assumes monopolistic competition, sticky prices and optimizing agents. The alternative rules analyzed for the ECB are ranked by their ability to stabilize consumption, output, and inflation and maximize consumers' welfare. The analysis contributes toward understanding the trade-offs faced by policymakers in open economies and provides some support for the current design of the ECB's operational framework. The results suggest that stabilizing money-growth, in addition to inflation, gives an additional degree of freedom to stabilize output. Although price stability is likely to remain the primary objective of the ECB, monetary policy must "without prejudice of price stability (...) support the general economic policies in the Community..." (Article 2). Hence monitoring money, under certain assumptions about the shocks hitting the economy, may deliver a better outcome in terms of output stabilization which should allow the ECB to fulfill its secondary but nonetheless important commitment.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
2605. Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries
- Author:
- Roberto Perotti
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- This paper studies the effects of fiscal policy on GDP, prices and interest rates in 5 OECD countries, using a structural Vector Autoregression approach. Its main results can be summarized as follows:1 ) The estimated effects of fiscal policy on GDP tend to be small: positive government spending multipliers larger than 1 tend to be the exception; 2) The effects of fiscal policy on GDP and its components have become substantially weaker over time; 3) Under plausible values of the price elasticity, government spending has positive effects on the price level, although usually small; 4) Government spending shocks have significant effects on the nominal and real short interest rate, but of varying signs; 5) In the post-1980 period, net tax shocks have positive short run effects on the nominal interest rate, and typically negative or zero effects on prices; 6) The US is an outlier in many dimensions; responses to fiscal shocks estimated on US data are often not representative of the average OECD country included in this sample.
- Topic:
- Economics and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
2606. Outsourcing and Inequality
- Author:
- Paul Brenton, Bob Anderton, and Eva Oscarsson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- This paper brings together and analyses the results of empirical analyses which, in contrast to most other studies, find that trade has been a significant cause of labour market inequality in various industrialised countries. The approach is based upon the concept of outsourcing – whereby the low-skill parts of the production chain are 'outsourced' to low-wage countries. A distinguishing feature of the empirical work is the use of highly detailed trade data, which allow imports from high- and low-wage countries to be separately identified at the industry level. Using cost minimisation framework, we show that imports from low-wage countries have made a significant contribution to the decline in the wage-bill share and/or relative employment of less-skilled workers in the UK, the USA, Sweden and Italy. We also show how the country-specific characteristics of outsourcing can lead to quite different inequality outcomes in different countries. In line with other studies, we also find that technology has played an important role in causing the increase in inequality in many countries. However, there is also some evidence that some of the rapid increase in the application of new technologies in recent decades has been trade-induced through mechanisms such as 'defensive innovation'.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States and United Kingdom
2607. Voices From The Iraqi Street
- Publication Date:
- 12-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- As this briefing paper went to press, all eyes were on the United States and United Nations, the weapons inspectors, war preparations and the Iraqi regime's posture toward them. Yet, as has been true throughout this crisis, the unknown variable in the equation is the view of the Iraqi population. Living under a highly repressive and closed regime and bereft of genuine means of expression, the Iraqi people have largely appeared to the outside world as passive bystanders in a crisis that is bound to affect them more than anyone else. Speculation about how Iraqis view the current crisis has varied widely, with assessments often tailored to buttress political arguments regarding the wisdom of a U.S.-led war.
- Topic:
- Security and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Arabia, and United Nations
2608. The Meanings of Palestinian Reform
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Since U.S. President George W. Bush's 24 June 2002 statement on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Palestinian reform has emerged as a key ingredient in Middle East diplomacy. In his statement, the president publicly identified “a new and different Palestinian leadership” and “entirely new political and economic institutions” as preconditions for the establishment of a Palestinian state. In early July, the Quartet of Middle East mediators (the European Union, Russian Federation, United Nations, and United States) established an International Task Force for Palestinian Reform “to develop and implement a comprehensive reform action plan” for the Palestinian Authority (PA). The September 2002 statement by the Quartet underscored reform of Palestinian political, civil, and security institutions as an integral component of peacemaking. The three phase-implementation roadmap, a U.S. draft of which was presented to Israel and the Palestinians by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State William Burns in October, provided details on this reform component.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and United Nations
2609. Moving Macedonia Towards Self-Sufficiency: A New Security Approach for NATO and the EU
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Macedonia's 15 September 2002 election suggests the country may have turned a corner on the road to stability. Widely anticipated fraud and violence mostly did not materialise. Unlike in neighbouring Kosovo a few weeks later, a cross section of voters from all ethnicities streamed to the polls. They elected a government that has embraced the Framework Agreement brokered by the European Union (EU), the U.S. and NATO at Ohrid in August 2001 to end the incipient civil war and that has pledged to manage inter-ethnic issues through consensus, not simply division of spoils, to overhaul the scandal-plagued “Lions” security unit, and fight massive, endemic corruption.
- Topic:
- Security and NATO
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Macedonia
2610. Iraq Backgrounder: What Lies Beneath
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- This background report reviews the mechanics of Saddam Hussein's rule, looks at the political dynamics that govern relations between religious and ethnic entities, and describes the various opposition groups and their potential role. It does not seek to predict the course of events in Iraq or to argue for any particular course of action. This is the first in a series of reports and briefing papers that ICG intends to issue on the challenges posed by Iraq, including the state of the country more than a decade after the Gulf War; regional attitudes toward a possible U.S. military offensive; the status of Iraqi Kurdistan; and Iran's posture toward a U.S.-led war and Iraq after Saddam Hussein.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, Arab Countries, and Kurdistan
2611. Kyrgyzstan's Political Crisis: An Exit Strategy
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- ICG's first report on Kyrgyzstan, published in August 2001, highlighted the potential for crisis facing the country. International attention was then rarely focused on Central Asia but since September 2001 the region has suddenly registered on policy-makers' agendas. Nearly 2,000 U.S. and Coalition troops are now located at Manas Airport near Bishkek, as part of the forces active in Afghanistan, and Kyrgyzstan is playing a key strategic role in the region. Stability in this country is now of fundamental concern to the international community but, since early 2002, it has declined sharply.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Central Asia, and Kyrgyzstan
2612. Middle East Endgame I: Getting To A Comprehensive Arab-Israeli Peace Settlement
- Publication Date:
- 07-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- President Bush, announcing U.S. policy towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on 24 June 2002, has set the terms of the international response to the conflict for the immediately foreseeable period. Before peace can be negotiated the violence has to stop. If the Palestinians are to have their own state – and the clear message is that they should – it must be one based on the principles of democracy, transparency and the rule of law. For that to happen the current leadership needs to go. The logic is sequential: political progress is conditional on a new security environment, institutional reform and, in effect, on regime change.
- Topic:
- Security, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia
2613. Fighting to Control Yugoslavia's Military
- Publication Date:
- 07-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica's 24 June 2002 sacking of Yugoslav Army (VJ) Chief of the General Staff Nebojsa Pavkovic was necessary, welcome, and long overdue. The EU, U.S., and NATO acclaimed the move as an effort to assert civilian control over the military, and Kostunica indeed deserves credit for removing a significant obstacle to the country's reintegration with Europe. Nonetheless, the action was probably more the result of the ongoing power struggle between Kostunica and Serbian Premier Zoran Djindjic than a genuine effort to bring the military under civilian control or dismantle the extra-constitutional parallel command structures that the post-Milosevic leadership of the country has created within the VJ.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, United Nations, and Serbia
2614. Pakistan: Madrasas, Extremism And The Military
- Publication Date:
- 07-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In its new role as key ally in the U.S.-led war on terrorism, Pakistan's military government has toned down many policies that previously fostered militancy and religious extremism within the country and internationally. Action against the Taliban, al-Qaeda and home-grown sectarian terrorists are examples. But the military's confrontation with its former religious allies is likely, at best, a short-term response compelled by circumstances and foreign pressure.
- Topic:
- Development, Education, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, and South Asia
2615. Kashmir: Confrontation and Miscalculation
- Publication Date:
- 07-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- With tensions in Kashmir and the confrontation between Pakistan and India appearing to cool in recent weeks, it would be easy for the international community to focus its attention elsewhere. Unfortunately, the dynamics underpinning the conflict between India and Pakistan along the Line of Control (the de facto border dividing the two countries in Kashmir) have not changed, and the potential for strategic miscalculations by both sides and broader fighting remains all too real. Indeed, the heart of the dispute is being driven by both local political conditions in Kashmir and much more sweeping issues of national politics and national sovereignty in both countries. Further complicating the situation, both Pakistan and India have sought to use the U.S.-proclaimed “global war on terrorism” to their own tactical advantage, increasing the risk of military missteps.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, South Asia, India, and Kashmir
2616. Resuming U.S.-Indonesia Military Ties
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The U.S. Congress will soon debate a proposal for funding to train an Indonesian military unit to deal with troubled areas within the country. If approved, the package would be a major step towards the restoration of relations between the U.S. and Indonesian armed forces, damaged by the latter's actions in East Timor. But whatever the apparent attractions in bilateral and security terms of taking this step, ICG believes that the proposed package is flawed.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Indonesia, and Southeast Asia
2617. Somalia: Countering Terrorism in a Failed State
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- For the first time since the last UN mission left the country in 1995, there is considerable international interest in Somalia, centred on the possibility that the country may become part of the global war against terrorism. The U.S. government suspects that al-Qaeda may have used Somalia as a staging area or safe haven in the past and remains concerned – though less than in the immediate aftermath of the 11 September 2001 attacks – that it could do so again because of the country's highly fragmented internal security situation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Terrorism, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States, United Nations, North Africa, and Somalia
2618. Capturing the Moment: Sudan's Peace Process in the Balance
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Sudan's window of opportunity threatens to become a missed opportunity if the peace process is not revitalised in the near future. Escalation of fighting around the oil fields, increasing use by the government of helicopter gunships against civilian as well as military targets, and indecision surrounding the nature of wider international engagement all put at risk Sudan's best chance for peace since the latest phase of civil war began nearly nineteen years ago. The parties continue to signal that they are ready to negotiate seriously. The international community, and in particular the United States, must seize this opportunity to revitalise the peace process before the two sides recommit themselves to resolving Africa's longest conflict on the battlefield.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States, Sudan, and North Africa
2619. Serbia: Military Intervention Threatens Democratic Reform
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Yugoslav Army's arrest on 14 March 2002 of a leading Serbian politician and a U.S. diplomat signals that for the first time the Army has openly entered the political arena and is explicitly attempting to set limits on political debate and policy. Serbian politicians will cross those red lines at their peril. The nationalist, conservative and corrupt military, which as the incident demonstrates is at least substantially beyond civilian control, seems intent on protecting important elements of the Milosevic legacy and is apparently now prepared to intervene more openly to influence negatively a broad range of policies, including the domestic reform agenda, cooperation with the Hague Tribunal, and relations with neighbouring countries. That Serbia is struggling to decide whether its course is toward the European mainstream or the reactionary polity of a Belarus should be of great concern to the international community.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Serbia
2620. Pakistan: The Dangers of Conventional Wisdom
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- With the continuing military campaign in Afghanistan, the international community has fundamentally shifted its policies toward Pakistan. The government of President Pervez Musharraf has been repeatedly praised as a key ally in the war against terrorism, and the U.S. alone has indicated that it will offer Pakistan more than one billion dollars in assistance. This briefing explores some of the most important dynamics underpinning the international community's revised approach to Pakistan and suggests that much of the conventional wisdom relies on dangerously faulty assumptions with important implications for future policy and regional security.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, and War
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and South Asia
2621. The IMU and the Hizb-ut-Tahrir: Implications of the Afghanistan Campaign
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The attacks in the United States on 11 September 2001 and the U.S.-led military campaign in Afghanistan have intensified the scrutiny of Islamist movements across Central Asia. Of such movements, two – the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and the Hizb-ut-Tahrir al-Islami (“Party of Islamic Liberation”) – have been of greatest concern to the governments of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and to the broader international community.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan
2622. The Cost of Multilateral Action
- Author:
- Shepard Forman, Maurizio Iacopetta, Charles Grayboy, and Yoram Wurmser
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- This explanatory note accompanies five tables developed and prepared over the past two years by graduate assistants at the Center on International Cooperation (CIC), New York University. Together, the tables describe CIC's preliminary efforts to aggregate the costs of international public goods and services provided through intergovernmental organizations. It does not account for bilateral funding nor for expenditures from non-governmental and other private actors. While the data is partial and subject to methodological deficiencies, it does provide a framework for estimating annual expenditures associated with the provision of goods and services through intergovernmental organizations as well as an indication of their distribution across sectors and regions. Reporting our findings at this early stage of the work is intended to encourage commentary on both the methodology employed and the findings to date, as well as to stimulate further research on the costs and financing of the international public sector.
- Topic:
- Government, International Cooperation, and Non-Governmental Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States and New York
2623. Economic Issues Raised by Treatment of Takings Under NAFTA Chapter 11
- Author:
- Edward M. Graham
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This working paper examines, from an economic perspective, the treatment of takings (property rights) under NAFTA Chapter 11. To be more precise, the paper examines the treatment of takings as environmental groups fear might be established as the result of investor dispute settlement under this chapter; as of the date of this writing, most of the cases that have the potential to be precedent-setting have not been finally decided, albeit one—the Metalclad case—has been decided in a way that is unsettling to environmentalists. The author attempts to determine whether requiring public compensation of private investors for diminishment of value resulting from government regulatory action has the potential of achieving anything close to an “optimal” outcome from a societal cost-benefit point of view (defined below). This determination makes use of tools of economic analysis and, in particular, Coase's theorem regarding achieving optimal outcomes where negative externalities are present. The overall conclusion is that, although Coase's theorem can be invoked to argue that such an outcome can be achieved either via a “polluter pays” approach or a “public pays” (or “public must compensate”) approach, as a matter of practical application, the first approach is preferable to the second for a number of reasons, including government “fiscal illusion” and “moral hazard.”
- Topic:
- Economics and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States, Latin America, and North America
2624. Home Bias, Transactions Costs, And Prospects For The Euro: A More Detailed Analysis
- Author:
- Catherine L. Mann and Ellen E. Meade
- Publication Date:
- 07-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This paper brings together the literature on determination of home bias in equity holdings and the portfolio balance model of exchange rates to consider whether the dollar might be affected by a change in transactions costs that alters international portfolio allocations. Our empirical findings lend support to the view that transactions costs have a significant influence on US portfolio holdings, even after accounting for float market share. In addition, new survey evidence on the equity holdings of European firms indicates home bias for European investors, and points to a reduction in the magnitude of this home bias since 1997.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
2625. Moral Hazard and the U.S. Stock Market: Analyzing the “Greenspan Put”?
- Author:
- Marcus Miller, Paul Weller, and Lei Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- When the risk premium in the US stock market fell far below its historic level, Shiller (2000) attributed this to a bubble driven by psychological factors. As an alternative explanation, we point out that the observed risk premium may be reduced by one-sided intervention policy on the part of the Federal Reserve, which leads investors into the erroneous belief that they are insured against downside risk. By allowing for partial credibility and state dependent risk aversion, we show that this 'insurance'—referred to as the Greenspan put—is consistent with the observation that implied volatility rises as the market falls. Our bubble, like Shiller's, involves market psychology, but what we describe is not so much 'irrational exuberance' as exaggerated faith in the stabilizing power of Mr. Greenspan.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
2626. Building the Dual Earner/Dual Carer Society: Policy Developments in Europe
- Author:
- Marcia Meyers and Janet Gornick
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- A new model of work and family life is emerging out of contemporary debates on social citizenship and the characteristics of the “woman-friendly” welfare state. The dual-earner/ dual-carer model refers to a social and economic arrangement in which men and women engage symmetrically in both paid work in the labor market and in unpaid work in the home. Parents' ability to balance family and market responsibilities, and to allocate employment and childcare-giving equally between mothers and fathers, could be facilitated by a package of state policies. Three areas of supportive policy – all invarious states of development across Europe – include: (1) family leave schemes that provide job protections and wage replacement for parents of young children; (2) affordable, high quality early childhood education and care, to a limited extent for very young children and to a much larger extent for children aged three to school-age; and (3) labor market regulations aimed at shortening the standard work week and strengthening re-muneration for reduced-hour employment. In this paper, we review European policy provisions, and then turn our attention to the United States case. We suggest that embracing the vision of the dual-earner/ dual-carer society may help to draw diverse but unified support for family policy development in the United States.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
2627. Three Worlds of Working Time: Policy and Politics in Work-time Patterns of Industrialized Countries
- Author:
- Brian Burgoon and Phineas Baxandall
- Publication Date:
- 09-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Given the underdeveloped attention to political and policy origins of aggregate work time patterns in the work-time literature, and the lack of any significant attention to work-time in the broader comparative political economy literature, this paper has pursues a broad mandate: to bring more politics into the study of work-time, and work-time into the study of politics. Using data allowing better comparison among OECD countries, we argue that study of working time needs to consider annual hours per employee and per working-age person, shaped by a range of social as well as direct work-time policies. We also argue that union interest in work-time reduction is more ambiguous than customarily supposed, with union interests likely mediated by a range of other conditions, especially female labor market participation and female union membership. Finally, we argue that attention to party systems and policy clusters should begin with consideration of Social Democratic, Liberal and Christian Democratic worlds of work time. We support these arguments with cross-section time-series study of 18 OECD countries, and brief qualitative studies of work-time in Finland, the United States, and the Netherlands.
- Topic:
- Economics and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Netherlands
2628. Continuity as the Path to Change: Institutional Innovation in the 1976 British Race Relations Act
- Author:
- Erik Bleich
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Institutional innovation can, paradoxically, be a product of institutional continuity. New institutions often emerge in a bifurcated manner in which formal institutions (such as laws and written rules) are accompanied by informal institutions (such as ideas that motivate and help determine the precise nature of specific policies). When informal institutions include ideas that track policy developments in other spheres or other countries, they can influence innovations in formal institutions. The development of the 1976 British Race Relations Act illustrates this dynamic. When British race institutions were established in the 1960s, they reflected the prevailing idea that British policies should incorporate lessons learned from North America. When Britain revisited its anti-racism provisions in 1976, policy experts looked again to North America and found that much had changed there in the interim. They subsequently altered Britain's formal institutions to include U.S.-inspired “race-conscious” measures.
- Topic:
- Government and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and North America
2629. Human Rights Defenders on the Frontlines of Freedom: Protecting Human Rights in the Context of the War on Terror
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- The Carter Center's decision to bring together human rights and pro-democracy activists from all regions of the world was based on the idea that it would be valuable to generate a picture of the state of global democracy and human rights movements. The late U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, Sergio Vieira de Mello agreed that in order to determine how the United Nations could support democratization and improvement in human rights conditions at the national level, he wanted to hear the views of those who are close to the action, those who work on the “frontlines of freedom.” Though situations differ according to local circumstances, it is important to watch for trends and assess progress as well as challenges that lie ahead. In the pages that follow are a selection of the pressing concerns of some of the world's most dedicated individuals who are truly betting their lives on the idea that universal freedom can be built law by law, case by case, community by community.
- Topic:
- Security, Human Rights, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States and United Nations
2630. The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Historical and Prospective Intervention Analyses
- Author:
- Bruce D. Jones
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- As we enter 2003, the Israeli-Palestinian context is defined by a series of inter- related phenomena: a continuing loss of Israeli and Palestinian lives; political turbulence (and some convergence) in Israel; progress, after much debate, on the question of reform and Chairman Arafat's leadership; a factional struggle for dominance of Palestinian popular politics; devastation of the Palestinian economy, and a lesser but still damaging corrosion of the Israeli economy; and public attitudes on both sides defined by the concept of “tactical hawks, strategic doves”—but with trends showing a worrying erosion of support for peaceful solutions. The international context is defined by growing consensus on substantive issues among international, Arab, and some U.S. officials; some remaining tactical and presentational differences within this group; a rise of anti-Semitic and anti-Arab attitudes; and uncertainty about the consequences of regime change in Iraq. The combination—alongside President Bush's decision to publish the Road Map following the confirmation of the new Palestinian Cabinet—potentially represents a turning point.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia
2631. Homeland Security: A Competitive Strategies Approach
- Author:
- F. G. Hoffman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- The much-reported 'end of history' was rudely shattered by the events of Sept. 11, 2001. America's illusion of security, sense of complacency, and triumphalism were abruptly dispelled by a series of brutal acts that were simply audacious and unfathomable. What used to be unthinkable is now apparently doable.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
2632. Conference-Workshop on the Northern European Initiative
- Author:
- Denise M. Horn
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Security and Democracy
- Abstract:
- Heather Conley began the session with a report regarding the current plans for US policy in the region. Generally NEI is considered a success story, thus the US is now retooling its policies by asking where the US should go in a post-enlargement world, and asking how to use this policy elsewhere.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Genocide, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
2633. Onward, Liberal Soldiers? The Crusading Logic of Bush's Grand Strategy and What Is Wrong with It
- Author:
- Edward Rhodes
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Security and Democracy
- Abstract:
- As pressures mount to strike before summer weather forecloses military options for the year, the debate whether the United States should undertake a preventive war against Iraq moves inexorably toward the center of the American political stage, despite the understandable reluctance of many Americans to think about the difficult trade-offs and troubling questions such a war would raise. Proponents of the war focus on the dangers of leaving Saddam Hussein in power. Opponents focus on the morality, military risks, and international political costs of undertaking a preventive war, on the possibilities of containing Saddam Hussein's influence and deterring his use of weapons of mass destruction without resort to war, and on the difficulties of building stable political institutions in the region after a victory.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Genocide, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
2634. Communicating Nuclear Risk: Informing the Public about the Risks and Realities of Nuclear Terrorism
- Author:
- Tonya L. Putnam
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- Achieving adequate preparedness for a terrorist attack against the United States involving a nuclear or radiological weapon is simultaneously a technical problem, a public-policy challenge, and a public-education mission. Response to terrorist attacks differs in important ways from response to more familiar nuclear emergencies arising from reactor accidents, and also from response to conventional and chemical and biological terrorist attacks. The complications of risk communication in the realm of nuclear terrorism include overcoming misinformation about the nature of the threats posed by terrorist attacks involving nuclear and radiological weapons as well as mistrust of experts, the government, and the media.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
2635. Saudi Military Forces Enter the 21st Century: The Saudi Air Force
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- This draft analysis is be circulated for comment as part of the CSIS “Saudi Arabia Enters the 21st Century Project.” It will be extensively revised before final publication.
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
2636. Saudi Military Forces Enter the 21 st Century: VI. Saudi Force Plans, Military Personnel, Military Expenditures, and Arms Transfers
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- This draft analysis is be circulated for comment as part of the CSIS “Saudi Arabia Enters the 21st Century Project.” It will be extensively revised before final publication.
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
2637. The New American Approach to Defense: The FY2003 Program Notes on Homeland Defense, Counterterrorism, Asymmetric Warfare, and Force Transformation
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The US is Redefining Security: Three major areas in which the US is redefining defense: Home land defense, Force Transformation, Nuclear Posture Review.
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
2638. The Global Nuclear Balance: A Quantitative and Arms Control Analysis
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Russia retains a significant strategic nuclear force capability, despite the decline in overall force size since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and despite apparent defense budgetary shortfalls and system aging. Russia also inherited sizeable biological and chemical warfare establishments from the FSU, and some components of these programs remain largely intact. Russian entities have exported various nuclear and ballistic missile technologies to states of proliferation concern, and Russia also remains a source for offensive biological and chemical warfare technologies and expertise.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Europe, Middle East, and Asia
2639. Saudi Military Forces Enter the 21st Century: IX. The Saudi Air Force
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- This draft analysis is be circulated for comment as part of the CSIS “Saudi Arabia Enters the 21 st Century Project.” It will be extensively revised before final publication.
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia
2640. Proliferation in the "Axis of Evil": North Korea, Iran, and Iraq
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Despite the June 2000 summit meeting and meetings between high level U.S. and North Korean officials on the one hand, and economic turmoil and continued food shortages on the other, we believe North Korea remains committed to maintaining strong military forces. These forces continue to be deployed close to the border with South Korea in an offensively oriented posture, and North Korea's NBC and missile programs likely remain key components of its overall security strategy. The most likely large- scale regional war scenario over the near term, which would involve the United States, would be on the Korean peninsula. In recent years, North Korea has continued to pose a complex security challenge to the United States and its allies. Prior to the 1994 Agreed Framework, North Korea is believed to have produced and diverted sufficient plutonium for at least one, and possibly two, nuclear weapons. In addition, although North Korea froze the production of plutonium in 1994, there are concerns that North Korea is continuing with some elements of a nuclear weapons program. North Korea also possesses stockpiles of chemical weapons, which could be used in the event of renewed hostilities on the peninsula. Research and development into biological agents and toxins suggest North Korea may have a biological weapons capability. North Korea has hundreds of ballistic missiles available for use against targets on the peninsula, some of which are capable of reaching tar-gets in Japan. Its missile capabilities are increasing at a steady pace, and it has progressed to producing medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs). North Korea also has continued development of even longer-range missiles that would be able to threaten areas well beyond the region, including portions of the continental United States. As a result of U.S. diplomatic efforts, however, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has maintained a moratorium on launches of long-range missiles for over one year.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, and Korea
2641. US and Russian Nuclear Forces and Arms Control After the US Nuclear Posture Review
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The reporting of START accountable warheads has led to serious confusion between START accountable warheads and actual warheads.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Europe, South Asia, Middle East, and Asia
2642. Iraq's Military Capabilities: Fighting A Wounded, But Dangerous, Poisonous Snake
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- If we go to war with Iraq, we will go to war with forces that are the military equivalent of a wounded poisonous snake. They are weakened, but still dangerous, and they may lash out in ways that are truly dangerous. In broad terms, Iraq's forces have been in steadily decline ever since the beginning of the fighting in the Gulf War. They have been weakened by military defeat, by the impact of UN inspections, by wars of underfunding and by a decade without significant arms imports. At the same time, they are still the most powerful conventional forces in the Gulf, and Iraq may have some very unconventional weapons.
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
2643. Biological War and the "Buffy Paradigm"
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The most important single message that anyone can communicate in regard to biological weapons is that we face a very uncertain mix of existing threats politics, commercial development, and technology will change constantly as far into the future as we can look. The issue is not what we know, but how little we know and how little we can predict.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States
2644. Islamic Extremism in Saudi Arabia and the Attack on Al Khobar
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- This draft analysis is be circulated for comment as part of the CSIS “Saudi Arabia Enters the 21 st Century Project.” It will be extensively revised before final publication.
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia
2645. Defending America: Redefining the Conceptual Borders of Homeland Defense
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Chemical weapons have not been used effectively in attacks on the American homeland. Reports that the bombers of the World Trade Center considered trying to add a chemical weapon like sodium cyanide to their explosives seem to be untrue, and led to an unsubstantiated assertion by the trial judge. There have, however, been a number of attempts to use chemical weapons by domestic extremists and individuals. For example, in 1997, members of the KKK plotted to place an improvised explosive device on a hydrogen sulfide tank at a refinery near Dallas, Texas. There is a well-established, low-level risk that such weapons will be used in the future, although there is no way to predict the frequency of such attacks, their scale, potential success, or lethality.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
2646. From B2B to G2G: Re-engineering the Canada-United States Relationship
- Author:
- Christopher Sands
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The new century is marked by a transformation in the economy that is changing the environment in which the United States makes policy regarding Canada, which is already a complex and diffuse process. First: what is new about the new economy? Second, how does the U.S. approach Canada in its policy processes. Third, how does Canada attempt to manage its relations with the United States? Fourth, how can business models help both countries to improve relations?
- Topic:
- Energy Policy and Environment
- Political Geography:
- United States, Germany, and North America
2647. Sobre Contagios y Remedios: La Heterodoxia Económica del New Deal, La Políca Exterior de Roosevelt y su Impacto sobre la Administracón Cerdenista
- Author:
- Joge Schiavon
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- The article explores the Mexico-United States bilateral relation during the administrations of Franklin D. Roosevelt and Lazaro Cardenas, in order to better understand how U.S. domestic and foreign policies influence the management of its relation with Mexico, which in turn can facilitate or not the implementation of public policies in the Mexican system. The principal hypothesis is that the New Deal modified the American liberal conception of state intervention in economic and social issues inside the United States, and that this permitted Cardenas' economic heterodoxy, both in political and ideological terms. Evidence is provided to support two points. First, the changes in U.S. foreign policy that resulted from the enactment of the Good Neighbor Policy invested the Cardenas administration with greater autonomy in economics issues. Second, the new economic ideas derived from the New Deal facilitated and justified increased state intervention of Cardenas' government in the economy, using fiscal policy and direct sate participation in economic areas defined as strategic. In sum, this article demonstrates that Roosevelt's domestic and foreign policies generated a permissive environment for the enactment of the most important public policies during the administration of Cardenas, supporting the idea that U.S. internal and international actions directly affect the possibilities of policy implementation in Mexico.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and Mexico
2648. The Bush Administration and the Future of Transatlantic Relations
- Author:
- Peter Trubowitz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- This paper, the first of a planned two-part analysis, examines the institutions of paramilitarism, death squads, and warlords in Latin America, with a focus on the case-studies of Mexico and Peru. It begins with an overview of the small comparative literature on paramilitary movements and death squads around the world, seeking to define and clarify the terminology. The literature on "warlordism" is then reviewed, and the similarities and distinctions between paramilitaries and warlords are considered. Lastly, I examine two case-studies that have not, as yet, received extended attention in the comparative literature: Mexico and Colombia. The paper concludes by summarizing the findings and charting a course for future investigations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Colombia, Latin America, and Mexico
2649. Banking and Finance Assistance
- Author:
- Eugene Spiro
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- The Banking and Finance Assistance Centre (BFAC) of the East West Institute is an independent, international centre whose mission is to provide assistance to financial sector leaders in the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the former Soviet Union (FSU). BFAC was established in 1992 by the East West Institute in response to the need expressed by bank executives and finance officials in CEE for a centre to provide impartial, professional, technical advice and assistance in the course of designing and implementing reform initiatives. Supported, among others, by the EWI network and in particular the United States Agency for International Development, BFAC's projects also cover capital markets and pension reform and small- and medium-sized enterprise development.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Eastern Europe
2650. Governing Global Finance: Financial derivatives, liberal states and transformative capacity
- Author:
- William D. Coleman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
- Abstract:
- Global finance is simultaneously one of the most globalized and one of the most esoteric sectors in the world economy. Within global finance, perhaps no activity is more esoteric and more difficult to understand than the buying and selling of derivatives. Their names are familiar perhaps – futures, options, forwards, swaps – but their nature is obscure. Simply put, derivatives are financial instruments that are used to hedge risk. If a Canadian corporation knows that it will want to buy 50 million US dollars on foreign exchange markets in three months time, it can arrange a fixed price for that purchase using a financial contract called a derivative. In doing so, it lowers the risk of the price of the currency changing drastically before it purchases the amounts it needs.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States and Canada
2651. Fourth Freedom Forum Cosponsors Conference on Averting Nuclear Anarchy
- Author:
- Joseph Rotblat
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Fourth Freedom Forum
- Abstract:
- On March 31 the Fourth Freedom Forum joined with the Joan B. Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame, the Union of Concerned Scientists, the Lawyers Alliance for World Security, and the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists to sponsor a one-day conference at the University of Notre Dame on the crisis in nu;clear arms control and the need for greater efforts to reduce and eliminate nuclear weapons. The conference featured a keynote address by Nobel Prize laureate Dr. Joseph Rotblat. Other speakers included Rev. Theodore M. Hesburgh, C.S.C.; former ambassador Thomas Graham, MIT research fellow Lisbeth Gronlund, former assistant secretary; of Defense Sarah Sewall, and Forum president David Cortright. Remarks of some of the speakers follow.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- United States
2652. Nation of Origin Bias and the Enforcement of Immigration Laws by the Immigration and Naturalization Service
- Author:
- Jim F. Couch, Brett King, William H. Wells, and Peter M. Williams
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Independent Institute
- Abstract:
- The Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) is charged with the task of administering citizenship requests, providing for the proper documentation of temporary foreign workers, and apprehending illegal aliens. The apprehension of illegals, the most controversial duty of the INS, has placed the agency squarely in the headlines. The recent raid to seize Elian Gonzalez from his Miami relatives brought opprobrium upon the agency. The action, which involved 131 INS agents – some heavily armed – resulted in calls of discrimination from Miami's Cuban community. This paper examines the inconsistent enforcement patterns of the INS and attempts to determine what factors may account for INS activity. We conjecture that the agency is influenced by political pressure and may practice discrimination against certain illegals.
- Topic:
- Government and Migration
- Political Geography:
- United States and Cuba
2653. Between Dialogue and Partnership: What North-South Relationship Across the Mediterranean?
- Author:
- Roberto Aliboni
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- In the post-September 11th evolution a new transatlantic dimension is emerging based in the struggle against terrorism in a global perspective. Terrorism is identified as today's central threat to international security and co-operation.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
2654. Strategic Challenges for the Bush Administration
- Author:
- Stephen J. Flanagan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- As the Bush administration settles into office, the United States confronts an international environment marked by growing volatility and rapid change. What security challenges will the new administration face, and what strategies are available for managing these challenges? To answer these questions, leading policy specialists in the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University recently prepared a series of assessments for the Department of Defense. These perspectives are presented in this occasional paper. Together with the Institute's previously published Report of the National Defense University Quadrennial Defense Review 2001 Working Group, these assessments offer a broad menu of security policy choices.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- United States
2655. Cluster Bombs: the Case for New Controls
- Author:
- Hugh Beach
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Security Information Service
- Abstract:
- Cluster Weapons consist of a large number of sub-munitions (“bomblets”) which are dispensed from a metal canister in mid-air and then disperse over a distance of several hundred metres. They are inherently indiscriminate since, once dispensed, the bomblets are un-guided and a threat to military and civilians alike. Bomblets are designed to knock out armoured vehicles but can also kill people to a radius of 30-40 metres.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
2656. Reinvigorating Multilateral Arms Control
- Author:
- Herbert Wulf and Michael Brzoska
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Security Information Service
- Abstract:
- Institutionalised or negotiated arms control at the multilateral level within the United Nations system and the bilateral level between the US and Russia fell into a state of crisis in the mid 1990s. Several factors contributed to this crisis. Firstly, with the slow but continuous disintegration of Russia's military apparatus the US emerged as the dominant power in international security relations. It has increasingly come to believe that it can control smaller states by military means and its interest in arms control has waned accordingly. Secondly, traditional arms control has proven too rigid in light of emerging post-Cold War security concerns. Regional and internal conflicts have resulted in more emphasis on UN peacekeeping operations and controlling or eliminating the weapons most commonly used in these wars (such as landmines, small arms and light weapons). When it became clear that it would not be possible to negotiate the landmines ban within traditional arms control institutions, so-called 'friendly states' began to develop new parallel fora. The Ottawa Process, which consisted of fast-track diplomatic negotiations culminating in the signing of the Landmines Convention, is an example of this new type of arms control initiative. Thirdly, the main aim of arms control is no longer stability, whereby states aim to maintain parity and build trust. Instead, the focus has turned to limiting the costs of armaments acquisition and disarmament
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
2657. Fieldwork Methodology for a CDIE Assessment of USAID and Poverty Reduction Approaches
- Author:
- Jonathan Sleeper and Lynn Salinger
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- The World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, U.N. agencies, many bilateral donors, and a number of developing countries have made poverty reduction their overarching development objective. The United States was a signatory in 1996 to the OECD/DAC's international development goals, which included halving of world poverty by 2015. Under the aegis of a comprehensive development framework which empowers national partners to design and implement their own development actions, debt relief for the world's most heavily indebted poor countries is being linked by the multinational development organizations to the development of national Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs).
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Human Welfare, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- United States
2658. Complex Emergencies And USAID's Humanitarian Response
- Author:
- Lynda DeWitt
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- In 1998 some 32 million people needed humanitarian assistance because they were caught up in complex emergencies (armed conflicts or civil wars). That same year, the United States spent $898 million on humanitarian assistance. This amount represented 10.2 percent of official development assistance and was more than triple the amount spent on humanitarian assistance in 1990.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Development, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
2659. Defining U.S. National Security for the Next Generation
- Author:
- John C. Gannon
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- In the post-Cold War world, the United States is challenged by a broader definition of U.S. national security that must take into account a wide range of factors that will contribute to stability or stimulate conflict in the years ahead. For these reasons, it makes sense today, more than ever, for a national security analyst to be engaged with USAID officers in a conference on global conflict prevention. We need to understand how such factors as demographics, natural resources, the environment, economic growth, globalization, and the quality of governance will challenge governments and the international community and, in some cases, sow the seeds of conflict threatening to U.S. interests.
- Topic:
- Human Welfare and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States
2660. Building Foundations for Cooperative Behavior Through U.S. Foreign Aid
- Author:
- Jr. Hawkins
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- Why do crime levels decrease in a government housing project located in one poor Indianapolis neighborhood but not in similar surrounding neighborhoods? Why do Nepalese farmers in selfgoverning systems consistently outperform their government-managed projects? Why have Turkish fishermen been able to govern inshore fisheries for two-hundred-plus years when theory and conventional wisdom would suggest they should fail?
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Human Welfare, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States
2661. Rethinking Development Assistance and the Role of AID in U.S. Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Jane Holl Lute
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- What should be the role of development assistance in U.S. foreign policy? In a time when major political, economic, and social transformation has altered so much of the international landscape, how are important U.S. interests served through the distribution of development aid? More fundamentally, what needs (that is, what needs of the United States) does a program of development assistance meet? What should be the goals of this program? What strategies should guide aid distribution to help best meet those goals?
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Human Welfare, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States
2662. International Constraints and Indigenous Strengths in Preventive Development
- Author:
- Jonathan Moore
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- I agree with Brady Anderson's guidance that “USAID's development policy and portfolio include integrated interventions aimed at addressing the effects of underlying social, economic and political problems.” My point of departure is that the only real prevention of conflict is root cause development, and that this cannot be separated from —but is closely connected to and part of—the crucial stage of post-conflict mitigation and rebuilding efforts. I will attempt to consider the implications for this proposition in three parts: the international “outside” perspective; the outlook from “inside” the crisis country; and where, broadly, combining these two points of view brings us.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Human Welfare, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States
2663. How Do We Change the Way We Use Foreign Assistance to Help Prevent Deadly Conflicts?
- Author:
- Ted Morse
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- The topic of this paper is how do we change the way foreign assistance works in an increasingly unstable world: it has been interpreted to mean how do we change the way we use foreign assistance to help prevent deadly conflicts.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Human Welfare, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States
2664. Developing a More Effective Conflict Prevention Capacity in an Increasingly Unstable World
- Author:
- Randolph Pherson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- USAID wants to be proactive in developing a more robust capability to: Identify the root causes of deadly violent conflict and economic and political crises. Use analytic and programmatic tools at USAID's disposal to mitigate and, to the extent possible, prevent potential economic and political crises and deadly violent conflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Human Welfare, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States
2665. Fear, Security and the Apocalyptic World View: The Cold War's Cultural Impact and Legacy
- Author:
- Paul S. Boyer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Clarke Forum for Contemporary Issues
- Abstract:
- In 1967, Louis Halle published a book called The Cold War as History. If that title seemed jarring and premature in 1967, it would simply appear obvious and conventional today. The Cold War is receding from our collective consciousness with breathtaking rapidity. Cold War encyclopedias are appearing; an Oxford Companion to the Cold War will doubtless arrive at any moment. To the college freshmen of 2000 — seven years old when Ronald Reagan left the White House — the Cold War is merely a chapter in a textbook, an hour on the History Channel, not lived experience.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Cold War, and Communism
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States
2666. Policy Space and voting Coalitions in Congress: the Bearing of Policy on Politics, 1930-1954
- Author:
- Ira Katznelson, John Lapinski, and Rose Razaghian
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
- Abstract:
- The question of how the substance of politics helps shape legislative coalitions and bases of support has been displaced from the center of studies of Congress since the publication of pioneering work in the 1960s and early 1970s. Seeking to revive this research program, we apply an original coding scheme in tandem with a factor analytic analysis of voting and policy space to the period spanning the last years of the Hoover presidency to the start of Eisenhower's. Investigating legislator parameters—the dimensions of voting space—and roll call parameters—the dimensions of policy space—the paper confirms the strong independent impact of the substance of policy on the political decisions of legislators and reveals an issue-specific concatenation of party and region that altered over the course of the period.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
2667. When (And How) Regions Become Peaceful: Explaining Transitions From War To Peace
- Author:
- Benjamin Miller
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Three important regions have moved from war to peace during the 20th century: South America in the beginning of the century, Western Europe in the middle while the Middle East has begun the move toward the end of the century. Not only did these moves take place in different periods in this century, but they also resulted in completely different types and levels of peace. How can we best explain these transitions and variations? Western Europe moved from a major war-zone to a zone of peace in the years following World War II. South America started the move to regional peace, even if not perfectly, much earlier in the 20th century. However, since the late 1950s Western Europe has reached a much higher level of peace than South America. A vigorous peace process began in the Middle East, in contrast, only in the early 1990s and the peace there is still much more fragile than in the other regions.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and South America
2668. International And Transatlantic Images Of Belonging: The United States And Europe In The 21st Century
- Author:
- John A. Hall
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
- Abstract:
- This topic was suggested to me by a fellow academic. Otherdirectedness has normally appealed to me in intellectual affairs, for it has encouraged thought on subjects otherwise not on my agenda. But I am uncomfortable on this occasion. Explaining why I feel as if I have been offered what chess players' refer to as a poisoned pawn allows immediate highlighting of the argument to be made.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
2669. Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The ballistic missile remains a central element in the military arsenals of nations around the globe and almost certainly will retain this status over the next fifteen years. States willingly devote often scarce resources in efforts to develop or acquire ballistic missiles; build the infrastructures necessary to sustain future development and production; and actively pursue technologies, materials, and personnel on the world market to compensate for domestic shortfalls, gain increased expertise, and potentially shorten development timelines.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States
2670. The Global War on Terrorism
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- On September 11, terrorists attacked freedom. The world has responded with an unprecedented coalition against international terrorism. In the first 100 days of the war, President George W. Bush increased America's homeland security and built a worldwide coalition that: Began to destroy al-Qaeda's grip on Afghanistan by driving the Taliban from power. Disrupted al-Qaeda's global operations and terrorist financing networks. Destroyed al-Qaeda terrorist training camps. Helped the innocent people of Afghanistan recover from the Taliban's reign of terror. Helped Afghans put aside long-standing differences to form a new interim government that represents all Afghans – including women.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, National Security, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States
2671. An Empirical Comparison of Bundesbank and ECB Monetary Policy Rules
- Author:
- John H. Rogers, Jonathan H. Wright, and Jon Faust
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- We estimate a monetary policy reaction function for the Bundesbank and use it as a benchmark to assess the monetary policy of the ECB since the launch of the euro in January 1999. We find that euro interest rates are low relative to this benchmark. We consider several possible reasons for this, including the divergence between core and headline inflation, inflation having turned out to be higher than could have been foreseen by the ECB and the possibility that the ECB is focussing only on macroeconomic conditions in a subset of member countries. We argue that these potential explanations cannot account for the difference between recent interest rates and our estimated Bundesbank benchmark. Our results suggest that the reaction function of the ECB features a high weight on the output gap relative to the weight on inflation, compared to the Bundesbank.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
2672. Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Pass-Through
- Author:
- Jane Ihrig and Joseph E. Gagon
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The pass-through of exchange rate changes into domestic inflation appears to have declined in many countries since the 1980s. We develop a theoretical model that attributes the change in the rate of pass-through to increased emphasis on inflation stabilization by many central banks. This hypothesis is tested on twenty industrial countries between 1971 and 2003. We find widespread evidence of a robust and statistically significant link between estimated rates of pass-through and inflation variability. We also find evidence that observed monetary policy behavior may be a factor in the declining rate of pass-through.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
2673. Battling International Bribery 2001
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The battle against international bribery and other forms of public corruption remains a high priority for the United States. As President George W. Bush stated in his May 2001 message to the Second Global Forum on Fighting Corruption, “The corruption of governmental institutions threatens our common interests in promoting political and economic stability, upholding core democratic values, ending the reign of dictators, and creating a level playing field for lawful business activities.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
2674. Report on Biological Warfare Defense: Vaccine Research Development Programs
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Section 218 of the Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2001, Public Law (PL) 106-398 (at Appendix A) requires the submission of a report to the congressional defense committees on the acquisition of biological defense vaccines for the Department of Defense (DoD). As required by section 218, PL 106-398, this report addresses: 1) the implications of relying on the commercial sector to meet the DoD's biological defense vaccine requirements; 2) a design for a government-owned, contractor-operated (GOCO) vaccine production facility; 3) preliminary cost estimates and schedule for the facility; 4) consultation with the Surgeon General on the utility of such a facility for the production of vaccines for the civilian sector and the impact of civilian production on meeting Armed Forces needs and facility operating costs; and 5) the impact of international vaccine requirements and the production of vaccines to meet those requirements on meeting Armed Forces needs and facility operating costs.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Human Welfare, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
2675. Russia in the International System
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Russia's Foreign Policy Russian foreign policy in the coming years will be characterized by weakness; frustration--primarily with the United States as the world's preeminent power--over Russia's diminished status; generally cautious international behavior; and a drive to resubjugate, though not reintegrate, the other former Soviet states. The international situation affords Russia time to concentrate on domestic reforms because, for the first time in its history, it does not face significant external threats. But rather than use the breathing space for domestic reforms, Putin is as much--if not more--focused on restoring Russia's self-defined rightful role abroad and seeking to mold the CIS into a counterweight to NATO and the European Union. The Outside World's Views of Russia Russia does not have any genuine allies. Some countries are interested in good relations with Russia, but only as a means to another end. For example, China sees Russia as a counterweight to the United States but values more highly its ties with the United States. Some countries see Russia as a vital arms supplier but resent Russia also selling arms to their rivals (China-India, Iran-Iraq). Pro-Russia business lobbies exist in Germany, Italy, Turkey, and Israel (one-fifth of whose population now consists of Soviet émigres), but they do not single-handedly determine national policies. Europe is the only region that would like to integrate Russia into a security system, but it is divided over national priorities and institutional arrangements as well as put off by some Russian behavior. Most CIS governments do not trust their colossal neighbor, which continues to show an unsettling readiness to intervene in their internal affairs, though they know Russia well and are to a considerable degree comfortable in dealing with it. Turkey has developed an improved dialogue and an unprecedented number of economic ties with Russia during the post-Cold War period, but this more positive pattern of relations has not fully taken root, and Ankara remains suspicious of Moscow's intentions. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moscow's role in the Middle East has been reduced, but Israel, Syria, Egypt, Libya, and Iraq all favor good relations with Russia. Mutual interests also override disagreements in Russian-Iranian relations, but Tehran is wary of Russian behavior, particularly toward Saddam Hussein. India still trusts Russia--a sentiment that is perhaps a residue of the genuine friendship of Cold War days--but clearly not in the same way it once did, and New Delhi fears that weakness will propel Russia into doing things that could drive India further away. In East Asia, the most substantial breakthrough has been the resurrected relationship between Russia and China, one that entails significant longer-term risk for Russia. Other countries in the region value their links with Moscow as a means to balance a more powerful China, or as a useful component of their larger political and economic strategies, but Russia's role in East Asia--as elsewhere--remains constrained by the decline in its political, military, and economic power over the last decade. Russia's Weakness Russia's weakness stems from long-term secular trends and from its domestic structure. In essence, the old nomenklatura and a few newcomers have transformed power into property on the basis of personal networks and created an equilibrium resting on insider dealings. These insiders may jockey for position but have a vested interest in preserving the system. The public does not like the system but is resigned to it and gives priority to the preservation of order. As for the economy, it is divided into a profitable, internationally integrated sector run by oligarchs and a much larger, insulated, low-productivity, old-style paternalistic sector that locks Russia into low growth. No solace will be forthcoming from the international business and energy worlds. They do not expect the poor commercial climate to improve greatly and will not increase investments much beyond current levels until it does. Militarily, Russia will also remain weak. Its nuclear arsenal is of little utility, and Moscow has neither the will nor the means to reform and strengthen its conventional forces. Hope for the Future? The best hope for change in Russia lies with the younger generation. Several participants reported that under-25 Russians have much more in common with their US counterparts, including use of the Internet, than with older Soviet generations. But there was some question over whether the new generation would change the system or adapt to it. Others placed some hope in international institutions, for instance the World Trade Organization, eventually forcing Russia to adapt to the modern world. Dissenting Views Some participants dissented from the overall forecast of depressing continuity. The keynote speaker, James Billington, stated that Russia would not be forever weak and that the current confusion would end in a few years either through the adoption of authoritarian nationalism or federated democracy. One scholar felt the Chechen war was feeding ethnic discord in other areas of the Federation to which Moscow would respond with increased authoritarianism, not necessarily successfully. Finally, a historian observed that the patience of Russians is legendary but not infinite, meaning that we should not be overly deterministic.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Middle East, and Israel
2676. Permanent and Transitory Components of Business Cycles: Their Relative Importance and Dynamic Relationship
- Author:
- Chang-Jin Kim, Jeremy Piger, and Richard Startz
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates the relationship between permanent and transitory components of U.S. recessions in an empirical model allowing for business cycle asymmetry. Using a common stochastic trend representation for real GNP and consumption, we divide real GNP into permanent and transitory components, the dynamics of which are different in booms vs. recessions. We find evidence of substantial asymmetries in postwar recessions, and that both the permanent and transitory component have contributed to these recessions. We also allow for the timing of switches from boom to recession for the permanent component to be correlated with switches from boom to recession in the transitory component. The parameter estimates suggest a specific pattern of recessions: switches in the permanent component lead switches in the transitory component both when entering and leaving recessions.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Mexico
2677. Second Annual Report
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The Commission considerably broadened its activities in its second full year, monitoring religious-freedom violations worldwide and increasing the number of countries it would study in depth. In July, the Commission wrote to the Secretary of State to recommend that Laos, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Turkmenistan be added to the list of “countries of particular concern” as provided for in the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998 (IRFA). It also recommended that Burma, China, Iran, Iraq, Sudan, the Milosevic regime in Serbia and the Taliban in Afghanistan remain on the list. In addition, it wrote that India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam are serious violators of religious freedom deserving careful State Department monitoring; it also expressed concerns about sectarian violence in Indonesia and Nigeria.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Human Rights, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, China, Iraq, Iran, Sudan, Taliban, and Vietnam
2678. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Future DoD Airborne High-Frequency Radar Needs/Resources
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The Defense Science Board Task Force was formed to address questions related to the development of X-band, active, electronically steered arrays (AESAs) for airborne platforms. Areas focused on were advanced radar capabilities for ground targets and air targets.The airborne radar inventory can be divided into three broad categories:(1) Air target surveillance and cueing radars mounted in rotodomes (e.g., AWACS,-2C).(2) Nose- mounted fighter radars for air and ground targets (e.g., F-15, F-16, F-22, JSF).(3) Side-looking radars for ground reconnaissance, surveillance, and cueing (e.g., U-2, JSTARS, Global Hawk). Categories (2) and (3) are dominated by X-band radars; the insertion of AESA technology into category (3) was the primary subject for this task force.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Development, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
2679. The Use of Cyclical Indicators in Estimating the Output Gap in Japan
- Author:
- Jane Haltmaier
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The paper uses capital and labor utilization rates to derive estimates of the Japanese output gap and potential output. Two techniques are used. The first uses the cyclical indicators to adjust potential output estimates derived from a Hodrick-Prescott filter over the most recent period when such estimates are generally considered to be unreliable. The second estimates equilibrium levels of the cyclical indicators and uses an Okun's Law-type relationship to derive output gaps and potential output. The second method is also applied to the components of potential output to derive a third estimate. These methods suggest that the current Japanese output gap is considerably larger than a simple Hodrick-Prescott filter would suggest.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Japan
2680. Home Bias and High Turnover Reconsidered
- Author:
- Francis E. Warnock
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The Tesar and Werner (1995) finding of very high turnover rates on foreign equity portfolios is based on an underestimation of cross-border equity positions. Foreign turnover rates calculated using information from comprehensive benchmark surveys on cross-border holdings are much lower than previously reported and comparable to domestic turnover rates. However, the basic intuition from the Tesar-Werner study, that transaction costs do not help explain the observed home bias, is confirmed using data on transaction costs in 41 markets.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
2681. A Retrospective on J. Denis Sargan and His Contributions to Econometrics
- Author:
- Neil R. Ericsson, Esfandiar Maasoumi, and Grayham E. Mizon
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This retrospective provides a biographical history of Denis Sargan's career and reviews his contributions to econometrics, emphasizing the breadth of his work in both theoretical and applied econometrics. We include a complete bibliography for Denis and a list of PhD theses that he supervised--students were a substantive facet of his professional life. Finally, two of Denis's previously unpublished manuscripts on model building now appear in print.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
2682. Border Effects within the NAFTA Countries
- Author:
- John H. Rogers and Hayden P. Smith
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Using consumer price indexes from cities in the U.S., Canada and Mexico, we estimate the "border effect" on U.S.-Mexican relative prices and find that it is nearly an order of magnitude larger than for U.S.-Canadian prices. However, during a very stable sub-period in Mexico (May 1988 to November 1994), the "width" of the U.S.-Mexican border falls dramatically and becomes approximately equal to the U.S.-Canadian border. We then show that when consideration is limited to cities lying geographically very close to the U.S.-Mexican border--San Diego, Los Angeles, Houston, Dallas, Tijuana, Mexicali, Juarez, and Matamoros--the border width falls compared to that estimated with the full sample of U.S. and Mexican cities, but falls only very slightly. We also present evidence that the border effect in U.S.-Mexican prices is not primarily due to the border effect in U.S.-Mexican wages. Finally, using the prices of 276 highly dis-aggregated goods and services, we estimate the variability of relative prices of different items within Mexican cities. This measure of relative price variability declines during the stable peso sub-period, but by less than the decline in nominal and real (i.e., CPI-based) exchange rate variability. Our results are strong evidence of a "nominal border effect" in relative prices within NAFTA, but also indicate that real side influences are important.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Canada, North America, and Mexico
2683. Growing Global Migration and Its Implications for the United States
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- During the next 15 years, globalization, demographic imbalances between OECD and developing countries, and interstate and civil conflicts will fuel increasing international migration, much of it illegal. Migration will have positive and negative consequences for sending and receiving countries alike. Other countries' responses to migration issues will affect migration pressures on the United States and a broad range of US economic and security interests.
- Topic:
- Security, Demographics, and Migration
- Political Geography:
- United States
2684. Protecting the Homeland: Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Defensive Information Operations 2000 Summer Study Volume II
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- In its 1996 report, the Defense Science Board (DSB) recommended that the Pentagon invest an additional $3 billion to strengthen defenses of its information networks. This report was viewed by some as unrealistic and prophetic by others, but in all cases it faced a readership with a very uneven appreciation of the effects of disruptive technology and dicontinuous change. The defense establishment has increased its intellectual capital on the subject of Defensive Information Systems (DIO) considerably since 1996. However, it has yet to fully accomodate the realities of an information intensive future in its architecture, processes, and investments. Technology has continued to evolve and the problems have become much more difficult and complex. DoD must now accomplish more than anyone could have imagined in 1996. Perhaps more important is the dawning realization that incremental modifications to our existing institutions and processes will not produce the adaptation we need.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Economics, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
2685. Report on Allied Contributions to the Common Defense 2001
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The United States and its allies face a diverse set of challenges to collective security. These include regional or state-centered threats (such as regional aggressors); transnational threats (including terrorism, international crime, drug trafficking, and illicit arms trafficking); the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery; and the spread of dangerous technologies (including non-safeguarded, dual-use technologies). Additional challenges include threats to the environment and public health (e.g., new infectious diseases), and from foreign intelligence collection, failed states, and other states that tolerate or actively engage in human rights abuses, ethnic cleansing, or acts of genocide that can endanger regional stability by sparking civil wars and refugee crises.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
- Political Geography:
- United States and Australia/Pacific
2686. Forecast Uncertainty in Economic Modeling
- Author:
- Neil R. Ericsson
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper provides an introduction to forecast uncertainty in empirical economic modeling. Forecast uncertainty is defined, various measures of forecast uncertainty are examined, and some sources and consequences of forecast uncertainty are analyzed. Empirical illustrations with the U.S. trade balance, U.K. inflation and real national income, and the U.S./U.K. exchange rate help clarify the issues involved.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and United Kingdom
2687. Patience, Persistence, and Welfare Costs of Incomplete Markets in Open Economies
- Author:
- Jinill Kim, Andrew Levin, and Sunghyun Henry Kim
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- In this paper, we investigate the welfare implications of alternative financial market structures in a two-country endowment economy model. In particular, we obtain an analytic expression for the expected lifetime utility of the representative household when sovereign bonds are the only internationally traded asset, and we compare this welfare level with that obtained under complete asset markets. The welfare cost of incomplete markets is negligible if agents are very patient and shocks are not very persistent, but this cost is dramatically larger if agents are relatively impatient and shocks are highly persistent. For realistic cases in which agents are very patient and shocks are highly persistent (that is, the discount factor and the first-order autocorrelation are both near unity), the welfare cost of incomplete markets is highly sensitive to the specific values of these parameters. Finally, using a non-linear solution algorithm, we confirm that a two-country production economy with endogenous labor supply has qualitatively similar welfare properties.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Welfare, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
2688. North Korea's Engagement—Perspectives, Outlook, and Implications
- Author:
- Mitchell B. Reiss
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The National Intelligence Council (NIC) held a conference on 23 February 2001 in cooperation with the Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress on "North Korea's Engagement—Perspectives, Outlook and Implications." The conference featured discussion of seven commissioned papers that are published in this report. Sixty government and nongovernment specialists participated in the conference. Following is a brief summary of the views of the specialists.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, and North Korea
2689. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Options for Acquisition of the Advanced Targeting Pod and Advanced Targeting FLIR Pod
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The Under Secretary of Defense (AT) requested that the DSB form a brief study of ongoing Navy and Air Force programs aimed at developing advanced laser guided weapon targeting pods for their tactical aircraft. This request for a DSB Task Force was occasioned by Congressional interest in the possibilities of a Joint development and production program for these pods.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Development, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
2690. Protecting the Homeland: Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Defensive Information Operations 2000 Summer Study Volume I
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The task forces see a spectrum of threats to the homeland emerging. The 2000 summer study begins a series of studies byt he Defense Science Board aimed at assisting the Department of Defense and the Intelligence Community in defining their roles in protecting the nation from unconventional attacks on the United States. Other studies now planned as part of this series of studies include Defense Against Chemical Warfare Attack: Countering the Strategic Nuclear Threat in the 21st century; a follow-up study on Intelligence on Threats to the Homeland; and a second study on the issues associated with Defense Against Biological Warfare Attack. The focus of all these DSB studies is on identifying the technology and operational capability needed to protect the homeland. It is not on the assignment of roles and missions for employing said capabilities. Significant recommendations are made in these reports including suggestions for implementation.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Development, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
2691. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Improving Fuel Efficiency of Weapons Platforms
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition, Technology and Logistics), recognizing the crucial importance of weapons platform fuel usage to U.S. military capability, requested that the Defense Science Board form a task force on Improving Fuel Efficiency of Weapons Platforms. Asked to consider existing or emerging technologies that could significantly improve platform efficiency, the task force also examined institutional barriers that exist and must be overcome to understand and capture the full advantages of more efficient military systems.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Environment, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
2692. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Training Superiority Training Surprise
- Author:
- Ralph Chatham and Joe Braddock
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- In late 1998 the Undersecretary of Defense (Personnel Readiness), the Director, Defense Research and Engineering, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff requested the Defense Science Board to create a task force on training and education. Drs. Joe Braddock and Ralph Chatham were appointed co-chairmen. The task force met periodically throughout 1999 and early 2000. This document is the report of our deliberations.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Development, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
2693. Commentaries: The U.S. National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2015: Excerpts, Commentaries, And Response
- Author:
- Ellen Laipson, Michael A. Ledeen, Michael J. White, John Gannon, Eugene J. Carroll, Richard P. Cincotta, Johanna Mendelson Forman, Michael Hanssler, Liliana Hisas, Leslie Johnston, Gavin Kitchingham, Gayl D. Ness, David Rejeski, Ervin J. Rokke, Judith Shapiro, Aleksei V. Yablokov, and Arno Weinmann
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- In January 2001, the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), a center within the Central Intelligence Agency that provides the agency's director with mid- and long-term strategic thinking and direction, published Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future with Nongovernmental Experts. This unclassified and public report, which expanded on the NIC's previous effort Global Trends 2010, takes a look at the world over the next 15 years from the perspective of the national security policymaker.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
2694. Linkage and Legalism in Institutions: Evidence From Agricultural Trade Negotiations
- Author:
- Christina Davis
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In a comparative study of Japanese and European trade policy, this paper explains how the institutional context of negotiations affects political outcomes. I examine two pathways by which negotiation structure promotes liberalization: issue linkage and legal framing. Broadening stakes through issue linkage mobilizes domestic lobbying for liberalization. Use of GATT/WTO trade law in dispute settlement legitimizes arguments favoring liberalization. This study on international institutions addresses the theoretical debates in the field regarding how interdependence and the legalization of international affairs change the nature of state interaction.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Europe, and Israel
2695. Asian Perspectives on the Challenges of China
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) held its annual Pacific symposium on “Asian Perspectives on the Challenges of China” at the National Defense University in Washington on March 7 and 8, 2000. This event brought together representatives of the policy community and academe from Australia, the People's Republic of China, India, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand, and the United States. It focused on how perceptions of China influence defense and foreign policies in key nations of the Asia- Pacific region, how the likely course of developments in China might affect the future policies of countries in the region, and how such changes might impact on their security relations with the United States.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, India, Korea, Singapore, and Thailand
2696. Adversary Use of NBC Weapons: A Neglected Challenge
- Author:
- John F. Reichart
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Despite years of research, the community's knowledge of how an adversary might use nuclear (and radiological), biological, and chemical (NBC) weapons remains restricted in important ways. The historical data that inform this area are rather limited and largely dated. We do not have much in the way of adversary planning documents or doctrine to study, and nations acquiring NBC weapons do not usually address employment concepts. Despite these gaps, we do know that NBC weapons afford potential adversaries cost-effective force multipliers and that a number of states of concern are actively pursuing their development.
- Topic:
- Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States
2697. U.S.-Saudi Relations: Rebuilding the Strategic Consensus
- Author:
- Joseph McMillan
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The preponderance of Saudi citizens among the September 11 terrorists and President George Bush's ensuing announcement of a war against global terrorism have again placed the spotlight on the U.S. relationship with Saudi Arabia. Even before September 11, U.S.-Saudi relations were approaching a crossroads. Despite long odds, America forged a successful military and political coalition with the Saudis during the Gulf war, but over the last several years bilateral ties have been seriously strained. Both sides have been inclined—and for the most part able—to keep these strains hidden from public view, but in the process the United States seems to have lost sight of the unique problems the Saudis face in working with America.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia
2698. China: Making the Case for Realistic Engagement
- Author:
- Michael E. Marti
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Chinese aspirations to become a great power in the 21st century have numerous regional implications. Beijing claims to seek a peaceful international climate so as to concentrate on domestic development. Yet under the rubric of a New Security Concept (NSC), China also is pursuing a long-term strategy to alter radically regional power relationships that have contributed to prosperity and relative stability in East Asia over the past 50 years.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Beijing, and East Asia
2699. Regional Conflicts with Strategic Consequences
- Author:
- M. Elaine Bunn, Richard D. Sokolsky, and David E. Mosher
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The strategic environment facing the United States has changed radically in the past decade. The United States needs to reexamine traditional ways of planning for the use of military force in conflicts that threaten vital interests and that could escalate to the highest levels of violence. Several characteristics define the new environment: Changed relationships between the major powers. The bipolar world of the Cold War has yielded to U.S. preeminence in virtually every facet of power, while Russia has become a second-tier power. China now has the seventh largest economy in the world and is modernizing both its conventional and nuclear forces—though it is unlikely to replace the former Soviet Union as the second pole in a reconfigured bipolar world. The rise of regional powers, such as Iraq and Iran. These aspiring regional hegemons are unhappy with a status quo that is preserved by American military power. The end of bipolarity has brought this antagonism to the fore. During the Cold War, regional conflicts played out within the context of the broader ideological and strategic conflict between the two superpowers, which also tamped down pressures for escalation and proliferation for fear that conflict would spiral out of control. That all ended with the Cold War. The collapse of the Soviet empire made it impossible for Russia to continue supporting its allies abroad, who were forced to become responsible for their own security. The possibility that smaller rogue states might try to keep the United States out of a regional conflict. By credibly threatening that the fight could escalate and even involve homeland attacks on the United States or its partners, a regional pariah might hope to prevent the United States from committing forces to the conflict or hinder it from building coalitions with European and regional allies. Failing that, a regional adversary could seek to delay and disrupt U.S. deployments to the theater and hamper operations. Finally, the leadership of a rogue state may be able to preserve its regime even in defeat if it could strike the American homeland or American allies. In short, regional powers are developing the capability to conduct strategic warfare against the United States. The importance these countries place on asymmetric warfare probably has been encouraged by the American distaste for wartime casualties and worries about self-deterrence.
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, and China
2700. A Golden Opportunity: The Next Steps in U.S.-Indian Relations
- Author:
- John C. Holzman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The Bush administration promotes broader security relations with India as a priority yet maintains wide-ranging sanctions against this giant of the subcontinent to punish it for its 1998 nuclear tests. The administration inherited policies that restrict high technology and military exports to India, mandate that the United States vote against some development loans to India from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, and limit cooperation with the Indian military establishment. The administration is in the process of lifting restrictions on high-level military contacts and is consulting with New Delhi on its plans for missile defense, a concept that India has applauded.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Central Asia, India, and New Delhi