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2. The Gray Zone Issue: Implications for US-China Relations
- Author:
- Feng Jin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- The issue of gray zone conflict between the US and China has attracted much attention in recent years. “Gray” indicates actions below the threshold of war, yet beyond normal diplomacy. The fundamental characteristics of gray zone activity include that they are well-planned, designed to be ambiguous amid strategic competition, and intended to leave opponents unable to launch an effective response. What demands special attention is that gray zone activity could cause unintended escalation, and that assertive responses to them may not be the best option. For instance, the United States’ gray zone retaliation to China’s activities in the South China Sea is hardly helpful to contain China’s activities, but certainly slow the pace of resolving the South China Sea dispute through negotiation and dialogue and jeopardize bilateral strategic stability. In the United States, current studies on the gray zone issue view the activity conducted by “measured revisionists” (such as Russia, China and Iran) as a major challenge to US national interest and the US-led international order. Today, as China and the United States are dancing on the precipice of a trade war, the geopolitical rivalry between the two countries raises major concerns and the possibility of a new Cold War has been discussed with increasing frequency. Although the United States and China are highly interconnected in many ways, entanglement also creates friction. In this context, the gray zone issue between China and the United States has a significant role in the relationship. How do we understand gray zone conflict? What challenges does the current gray zone activity pose to China and the United States? What measures should be taken to address such challenges?
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, War, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
3. Iraq After ISIS: The Other Half of Victory Dealing with the Civil Dimension
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The United States, its allies, and international organizations are just beginning to come to grips with the civil dimensions of "failed state" wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, the Sudans, Syria, and Yemen. In each case, it is clear that the civil dimension of the war will ultimately be as important as the military one. Any meaningful form of "victory" requires far more than defeating the current extremist threat in military terms, and reaching some temporary compromise between the major factions that divide the country. The current insurgent and other security threats exist largely because of the deep divisions within the state, the past and current failures of the government to deal with such internal divisions, and the chronic failure to meet the economic, security, and social needs of much of the nation's population. In practical terms, these failures make a given host government, other contending factions, and competing outside powers as much of a threat to each nation’s stability and future as Islamic extremists and other hostile forces. Regardless of the scale of any defeat of extremists, the other internal tensions and divisions with each country also threaten to make any such “victory” a prelude to new forms of civil war, and/or an enduring failure to cope with security, stability, recovery, and development. Any real form of victory requires a different approach to stability operations and civil-military affairs. In each case, the country the U.S. is seeking to aid failed to make the necessary economic progress and reforms to meet the needs of its people – and sharply growing population – long before the fighting began. The growth of these problems over a period of decades helped trigger the sectarian, ethnic, and other divisions that made such states vulnerable to extremism and civil conflict, and made it impossible for the government to respond effectively to crises and wars.
- Topic:
- Security, War, Fragile/Failed State, ISIS, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Africa, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, Syria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sundan
4. The Effect of Civilian Casualties on Wartime Informing: Evidence from the Iraq War
- Author:
- Andrew Shaver and Jacob N. Shapiro
- Publication Date:
- 02-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
- Abstract:
- Scholars of civil war and insurgency have long posited that insurgent organizations and their state enemies incur costs for the collateral damage they cause. We provide the first direct quantitative evidence that wartime informing is affected by civilian casualties. Using newly declassified data on tip flow to Coalition forces in Iraq we find that information flow goes down after government forces inadvertently kill civilians and it goes up when insurgents do so. These results have strong policy implications; confirm a relationship long posited in the theoretical literature on insurgency; and are consistent with a broad range of circumstantial evidence on the topic.
- Topic:
- War, Insurgency, Counterinsurgency, Information Age, Civilians, and Casualties
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
5. Confidence Building in Cyberspace: A Comparison of Territorial and Weapons-Based Regimes
- Author:
- Dr. Mary Manjikian
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- An analysis of weapons-based confidence-building measures shows how academics can work together to self-police their research for national security implications, socialize new members of the academic community into the importance of considering security issues, and develop and disseminate norms regarding what is and is not a moral and ethical use of these technologies. It may be possible for academics and policymakers to come together to work for a ban or build-down on cyber weapons patterned on international efforts to ban chemical and biological weapons and implement export regimes to control the export of code which may form the components of cyber weapons. If we conceptualize cyberspace as territory, we can also learn from the example of territorially-based confidence-building measures such as those implemented along the Indo-Pakistan border. This approach stresses the importance of developing notification procedures to prevent misperceptions and the escalation spiral, as well as communicating regularly to establish trust between all parties. The case studies presented here illustrate the promises and pitfalls of each approach and offer valuable warnings to policymakers seeking to implement such measures in cyberspace. They show what happens when not everyone in a regime is equally committed to a specific outcome by illustrating the difficulties of monitoring compliance in confidence-building regimes, and show the ways in which doctrines and confidence-building measures may not be perfectly aligned.
- Topic:
- Security, National Security, Science and Technology, War, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Cybersecurity
- Political Geography:
- United States and Global Focus
6. The Army War College Review Vol. 1 No.1
- Author:
- Dr. Larry D. Miller
- Publication Date:
- 03-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The Army War College Review, a refereed publication of student work, is produced under the purview of the Strategic Studies Institute and the United States Army War College. An electronic quarterly, The AWC Review connects student intellectual work with professionals invested in U.S. national security, Landpower, strategic leadership, global security studies, and the advancement of the profession of arms.
- Topic:
- Security, National Security, War, and Global Security
- Political Geography:
- United States
7. William Penn, Benjamin Franklin, and the American Founding: The Philadelphia Factor
- Author:
- Walter A. McDougall
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the role played by pre-revolutionary Philadelphia in the outcome of the War of Independence and the foundation of the United States. In particular, it talks about some important figures from Philadelphia, including Benjamin Franklin and William Penn, and the city, as it was in their day and at the time of the Declaration of Independence.
- Topic:
- War, Governance, Self Determination, and Popular Revolt
- Political Geography:
- United States
8. Distinguishing Acts of War in Cyberspace: Assessment Criteria, Policy Considerations, and Response Implications
- Author:
- Jeffery L. Caton
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The monograph is comprised of four main sections: Characterization. This section provides the notional foundation necessary to avoid any devolution of the analysis to mere semantic arguments. It presents how cyberspace is defined and characterized for this discussion, as well as how this compares to existing concepts of the traditional domains of land, sea, air, and space. Also, it identifies some of the unique technical challenges that the cyberspace domain may introduce into the process of distinguishing acts of war. Assessment Criteria. This section explores the de jure and the de facto issues involved with assaying cyber incidents to determine if they represent aggression and possible use of force; and, if so, to what degree? It reviews the traditional legal frameworks surrounding military action to include the United Nations (UN) Charter and the Law of Armed Conflict. It also examines how these compare to the recently published Tallinn Manual on the International Law Applicable to Cyber Warfare. From these sources, it proposes a cyberspace incident assessment methodology. Policy Considerations. Having identified viable criteria to aid with the assessment of cyber-space incidents, this section looks at the policy considerations associated with applying such principles. First, it examines the relevant U.S. strategies; next, it investigates the strategies of other key countries and international organizations and how they compare to U.S. tenets; and finally, it evaluates how nonstate actors may affect U.S. deliberations. Courses of Action. This section examines the influences that course of action development and implementation may have on the assessment of cyberspace incidents. It first looks at the President's role as the primary decisionmaker in U.S. national matters regarding cyber-space. It then surveys key influences affecting subordinate decisionmakers and their staffs that may be advising the Commander-in-Chief: reliable situational awareness, global and domestic environment considerations, and options and their related risks and potential consequences.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Intelligence, Science and Technology, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States and United Nations
9. Russia's Hybrid Warfare -Waging War below the Radar of Traditional Collective Defence
- Author:
- Heidi Reisinger and Aleksandr Golts
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- Ukraine is not even a state!” Putin reportedly advised former US President George W. Bush during the 2008 NATO Summit in Bucharest. In 2014 this perception became reality. Russian behaviour during the current Ukraine crisis was based on the traditional Russian idea of a “sphere of influence” and a special responsibility or, stated more bluntly, the “right to interfere” with countries in its “near abroad”. This perspective is also implied by the equally misleading term “post-Soviet space.” The successor states of the Soviet Union are sovereign countries that have developed differently and therefore no longer have much in common. Some of them are members of the European Union and NATO, while others are desperately trying to achieve this goal. Contrary to what Professor John Mearsheimer may suggest. In his article “Why the Ukraine crisis is the West's fault” he argues that NATO has expanded too far to the East, “into Russia's backyard”, against Moscow's declared will, and therefore carries responsibility for recent events; however, this seems to ignore that NATO was not hunting for new members, but found them knocking at its door.
- Topic:
- NATO and War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Ukraine, Soviet Union, and Moscow
10. Silver Bullet? Asking the Right Questions About Conventional Prompt Global Strike
- Author:
- James M. Acton
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The development of non-nuclear weapons that can strike distant targets in a short period of time has been a U.S. goal for more than a decade. Advocates argue that such Conventional Prompt Global Strike (CPGS) weapons could be used to counter antisatellite weapons or sophisticated defensive capabilities; deny a new proliferator the ability to employ its nuclear arsenal; and kill high-value terrorists. Critics worry that CPGS weapons could create serious strategic risks, most notably of escalation—including to the nuclear level—in a conflict.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States
11. Transition in Afghanistan: 2009-2013
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The US is already at least six months behind in shaping an effective Transition in Afghanistan. It has not laid credible plans for the security, governance, and economic aspects of Transition. It has not made its level of future commitment clear to its allies or the Afghans, and it has failed dismally to convince the Congress and the American people that there is a credible reason to support Transition beyond the end of 2014.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Islam, War, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
12. Women and Conflict in Afghanistan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- As the presidential election approaches in 2014, with the security transition at the year's end, Afghan women, including parliamentarians and rights activists, are concerned that the hard-won political, economic and social gains achieved since the U.S.-led intervention in 2001 may be rolled back or conceded in negotiations with the insurgents. Afghanistan's stabilisation ultimately rests on the state's accountability to all its citizens, and respect for constitutional, legal and international commitments, including to human rights and gender equality. There will be no sustainable peace unless there is justice, and justice demands that the state respect and protect the rights of women, half its population.
- Topic:
- NATO, Democratization, Development, Gender Issues, Peace Studies, War, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia
13. Afghanistan After the Drawdown
- Author:
- Seth G. Jones and Keith Crane
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan will undergo three major transitions in 2014: from a Hamid Karzai–led government to one presumably headed by another president following the 2014 election; from a U.S.-led to an Afghan-led counterinsurgency; and from an economy driven by foreign expenditures on military support and assistance to one more reliant on domestic sources of growth, as the United States and other countries reduce their presence. The United States and its allies will need to shape each of these transitions in ways that safeguard their interests.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Terrorism, War, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
14. The Illicit Trade Conflict Connection: Insights from U.S. History
- Author:
- Peter Andreas
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
- Abstract:
- A great deal of scholarly and policy attention has been given in recent years to the relationship between illicit trade and armed conflict. Much of the focus has been on how violent non-state actors have exploited illicit commerce to fund and sustain rebellion. It is commonly asserted that this is a distinctly post-Cold War phenomenon—even a defining characteristic of so-called "new wars."1 A frequent argument, for example, is that in the absence of formal external sponsorship from the United States or the former Soviet Union, insurgents have increasingly turned to alternative forms of material support. This includes illicit exports dubbed "conflict commodities," such as drugs, timber, ivory, diamonds, and so on. Thus, partly thanks to the campaigns of international NGOs such as Global Witness, diamonds from conflict zones in West Africa have been labeled "blood diamonds" (inspiring a James Bond movie and other major Hollywood productions).
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Crime, International Trade and Finance, War, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- United States, Soviet Union, and West Africa
15. 21st Century Cultures of War: Advantage Them
- Author:
- Anna Simons
- Publication Date:
- 04-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- In the inaugural launch of the FPRI’s new e-publication, The Philadelphia Papers, the anthropologist Anna Simons of the Defense Analysis department at the Naval Postgraduate School, and member of the Orbis Board of Editors, provocatively assesses cultures of war in the 21st century. She cautions that while the United States military increasingly dazzles in the technological realm, we remain at a marked disadvantage when it comes to social relations, chronically underestimating the sophistication of adversaries and allies in the (non-East Asian) non-West. This asymmetry, to include who is willing to do what to whom, puts our soldiers, diplomats, and intelligence communities at a distinct disadvantage. She argues that the U.S. needs to take this into account as it rethinks how to wage war, never mind whether to become involved in the kinds of ambiguous political-military conflicts we have engaged in over the past decade. Indeed, without a greater appreciation for the social and anti-social skills of likely future adversaries, current problems plaguing our military -– from PTSD through questionable generalship -- will only worsen over time.
- Topic:
- Politics, Science and Technology, War, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States
16. THE GULF MILITARY BALANCE Volume II: The Missile and Nuclear Dimensions
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Bryan Gold
- Publication Date:
- 05-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The report shows that Iran's current missile and rocket forces help compensate for its lack of effective air power and allow it to pose a threat to its neighbors and US forces that could affect their willingness to strike on Iran if Iran uses its capabilities for asymmetric warfare in the Gulf or against any of its neighbors. At another level, Iran's steady increase in the number, range, and capability of its rocket and missile forces has increased the level of tension in the Gulf, and in other regional states like Turkey, Jordan, and Israel. Iran has also shown that it will transfer long-range rockets to “friendly” or “proxy” forces like the Hezbollah and Hamas. At a far more threatening level, Iran has acquired virtually every element of a nuclear breakout capability except the fissile material needed to make a weapon. This threat has already led to a growing “war of sanctions,” and Israeli and US threats of preventive strikes. At the same time, the threat posed by Iran's nuclear programs cannot be separated from the threat posed by Iran's growing capabilities for asymmetric warfare in the Gulf and along all of its borders. It is far from clear that negotiations and sanctions can succeed in limiting Iran's ability to acquire nuclear weapons and deploy nuclear-armed missiles. At the same time, the report shows that military options offer uncertain alternatives. Both Israel and the US have repeatedly stated that they are planning and ready for military options that could include preventive strikes on at least Iran's nuclear facilities and, and that US strikes might cover a much wider range of missile facilities and other targets. A preventive war might trigger a direct military confrontation or conflict in the Gulf with little warning. It might also lead to at least symbolic Iranian missile strikes on US basing facilities, GCC targets or Israel. At the same time, it could lead to much more serious covert and proxy operations in Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, the rest of the Gulf, and other areas.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Middle East
17. Defense Cuts, Sequestration, and the US Defense Budget
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Robert M. Shelala II
- Publication Date:
- 04-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Concepts are not a strategy. Broad outlines do not set real priorities. A strategy requires a plan with concrete goals numbers schedules and costs for procurement, allocation, manpower, force structure, and detailed operational capabilities. For all the talk of 10 years of planned spending levels and cuts, the President and Congress can only shape the actual budget and defense program one year at a time. Unpredicted events and realities will intervene. There is a near zero real world probability that the coming plan and budget will shape the future in spite of changes in the economy, politics, entitlements, and threats to the US.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, War, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- United States
18. Islamist Extremism - Potential for Greater U.S.-Australian Cooperation
- Author:
- Douglas J. Feith
- Publication Date:
- 02-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Though not the beginning of the war between Islamist extremists and the United States, 9/11 was the moment when most Americans realized that such a war was underway. Understandably, the challenge often is thought of as a problem of terrorism, but it is broader.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States and Australia
19. Contracting the Commanders: Transition and the Political Economy of Afghanistan's Private Security Industry
- Author:
- Matthieu Aikins
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- As Afghanistan approaches the 2014 deadline for assuming responsibility for its own security, and the international community becomes preoccupied with the challenge of reducing its vast entanglement with the country's politics, economy, and society, the critical question is whether NATO's transition will succeed in stabilizing Afghanistan—or whether it will result in further destabilization, as seen following the Soviet withdrawal in 1989, which eventually led to the collapse of the central government, large-scale civil war, and the country's development into a haven for international terrorism.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Crime, Islam, War, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia
20. India in Afghanistan: A Rising Power or a Hesitant Power?
- Author:
- Harsh Pant
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Indian diplomacy faced a major setback at the Afghanistan Conference in London in January 2010, where Indian concerns were summarily ignored. In one stroke, Pakistan rendered New Delhi irrelevant in the evolving security dynamic in Afghanistan. When Indian External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna underscored the folly of making a distinction “between good Taliban and bad Taliban,” he was completely out of sync with the larger mood at the conference. Days before this much-hyped conference, senior U.S. military commanders were suggesting that peace talks with the Taliban may be imminent and that Taliban members might even be invited to join the government in Kabul. The West had made up its mind that it was not a question of if, but when and how to exit from Afghanistan, which seemed to be becoming a quagmire for the leaders in Washington and London.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, War, Power Politics, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Washington, India, Taliban, London, and New Delhi
21. The beginning of the end? The future of international engagement in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Timo Behr and Charly Salonius-Pasternak
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- States which contribute to various international efforts in Afghanistan will find it increasingly difficult to balance a need to show long-term commitment with an unpredictable political and quickly changing operating environment. Recent events in Afghanistan are threatening to undermine the plans for an orderly transition of security responsibilities to Afghan authorities by the end of 2014. Countries must be ready to adjust contributions in both size and task during both 2012 and 2013. Germany has pledged to only gradually withdraw its forces and maintain its focus on partnering and training, despite an increasingly unstable environment. Current planning also foresees a German commitment in the post-2014 period. Finland will increasingly focus on civilian crisis management efforts and development assistance, and will stay engaged and committed as long as its closest partners also do so. Sweden is set to continue leading a Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT), but post-2014 commitments are unclear. The United States is set to return to 'pre-surge' force levels (though with a different force structure) of around 68,000 soldiers by autumn 2012. Further withdrawals of up to 30,000 soldiers are being discussed.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, Peace Studies, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Finland, Germany, and Sweden
22. The US Cost of the Afghan War: FY2002-FY2013: Cost in Military Operating Expenditures and Aid, and Prospects for "Transition."
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- It is surprisingly difficult to get a meaningful estimate of the total cost of the Afghan conflict, total spending on Afghan forces and total spending on various forms of aid. More data are available on US efforts – which have dominated military and aid spending, but even these data present serious problems in reliability, consistency, and definition. Moreover, it is only since FY2012 that the US provided an integrated request for funding for the war as part of its annual budget request. The data for the period before FY2009 are accurate pictures of the Department of Defense request, but there is only a CRS estimate of total spending the previous years.
- Topic:
- Economics and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
23. Waiting for the Taliban in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Gilles Dorronsoro
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The withdrawal of international forces from Afghanistan will leave the country worse than it was before 2001 in some respects. There is no clear plan for the future. Washington will progressively lose its influence over Kabul, and drone operations in Pakistan are not a credible way to fight jihadist groups on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. The situation will only worsen after 2014, when most U.S. troops are out of the country and aid going to the Afghan government steeply declines.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Islam, Terrorism, War, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Washington, and Asia
24. How Business Can Foster Peace
- Author:
- Raymond Gilpin, John Forrer, and Timothy L. Fort
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The business sector can promote prosperity and stability in conflict-prone and conflict affected regions through good corporate citizenship, but operating in these high-risk, high-reward environments is fraught with great difficulty. Many firms develop risk mitigation strategies designed to minimize exposure and cost without accounting for costs to the country, its population, and the environment. Poor risk management strategies combine with endemic corruption and myriad market failures and distortions resulting from weak economic governance to reinforce aspects of the political economy that could trigger and sustain violent conflict. Effectively addressing these failings could reduce business costs, increase efficiency, and improve governance and livelihoods in fragile regions. U.S. government policy documents, such as the Quadrennial Defense Review, Quadrennial Diplomacy and Defense Review, and National Security Strategy, allude to a potential role for firms in furthering stability and promoting peace but do not clearly analyze the complexities such endeavors entail or identify workable solutions. Strategies to capitalize on the immense potential of the business sector to foster peace must account for the size of firms, whether they are state or privately owned, which industries they are involved in, and their interconnectedness within supply chains. Key components of effective strategies include crafting incentives to reward investing firms that espouse good corporate citizenship, strengthening international initiatives that promote transparency and contain corruption, developing initiatives to more fully incorporate the local economy into global value chains, and introducing mechanisms to forge global consensus on appropriate conflict-sensitive business practices.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Development, Poverty, War, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- United States
25. Aid and Conflict in Afghanistan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- After a decade of major security, development and humanitarian assistance, the international community has failed to achieve a politically stable and economically viable Afghanistan. Despite billions of dollars in aid, state institutions remain fragile and unable to provide good governance, deliver basic services to the majority of the population or guarantee human security. As the insurgency spreads to areas regarded as relatively safe till now, and policymakers in Washington and other Western capitals seek a way out of an unpopular war, the international community still lacks a coherent policy to strengthen the state ahead of the withdrawal of most foreign forces by December 2014. The impact of international assistance will remain limited unless donors, particularly the largest, the U.S., stop subordinating programming to counter-insurgency objectives, devise better mechanisms to monitor implementation, adequately address corruption and wastage of aid funds, and ensure that recipient communities identify needs and shape assistance policies.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, War, Foreign Aid, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
26. The Coming Turkish-Iranian Competition In
- Author:
- Sean Kane
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The two rising powers in the Middle East—Turkey and Iran—are neighbors to Iraq, its leading trading partners, and rapidly becoming the most influential external actors inside the country as the U.S. troop withdrawal proceeds. Although there is concern in Washington about bilateral cooperation between Turkey and Iran, their differing visions for the broader Middle East region are particularly evident in Iraq, where a renewal of the historical Ottoman-Persian rivalry in Mesopotamia is likely as the dominant American presence fades. Turkey aims for a robust Iraqi political process in which no single group dominates, sees a strong Iraq as contributing to both its own security and regional stability, and is actively investing in efforts to expand Iraqi oil and gas production to help meet its own energy needs and fulfill its goal of becoming the energy conduit from the Middle East to Europe. Iran prefers a passive neighbor with an explicitly sectarian political architecture that ensures friendly Shiite-led governments; sees a strong Iraq as an inherent obstacle to its own broader influence in the region and, in the nightmare scenario, once again possibly a direct conventional military threat; and looks askance at increased Iraqi hydrocarbon production as possible competition for its own oil exports. Baghdad meanwhile believes that it can become a leader in the Middle East but is still struggling to define an inclusive national identity and develop a foreign policy based on consensus. In its current fractured state, Iraq tends to invites external interference and is subsumed into the wider regional confrontation between the Sunni Arab defenders of the status quo and the “resistance axis” led by Shiite Iran. Turkey has an opening in Iraq because it is somewhat removed from this toxic Arab-Persian divide, welcomes a strong Iraq, and offers the Iraqi economy integration with international markets. Ankara could now allay Iraqi Shiite suspicions that it intends to act as a Sunni power in the country and not allow issues on which Turkish and Iraqi interests deviate to set the tone for their relationship. The U.S. conceptualization of an increased Turkish influence in Iraq as a balance to Iran's is limited and could undermine Turkey's core advantages by steering it towards a counterproductive sectarian approach. A more productive U.S. understanding is of Turkey as a regional power with the greatest alignment of interests in a strong, stable, and selfsufficient country that the Iraqis want and that the Obama administration has articulated as the goal of its Iraq policy. On the regional level, a strong and stable Iraq is a possible pivot for Turkish and Iranian ambitions, enabling Ankara and hindering Tehran. Washington may well have its differences with Turkey's new foreign policy of zero problems with its neighbors, but the Turkish blend of Islam, democracy, and soft power is a far more attractive regional template than the Iranian narrative of Islamic theocracy and hard power resistance. The United States should therefore continue to welcome increased Turkish-Iraqi economic, trade, and energy ties and where possible support their development as a key part of its post-2011 strategy for Iraq and the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Imperialism, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
27. Improving Peacebuilding Evaluation
- Author:
- Andrew Blum
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The effective evaluation of peacebuilding programs is essential if the field is to learn what constitutes effective and ineffective practice and to hold organizations accountable for using good practice and avoiding bad practice. In the field of peacebuilding evaluation, good progress has been made on the intellectual front. There are now clear guidelines, frameworks, and tool kits to guide practitioners who wish to initiate an evaluation process within the peacebuilding field. Despite this, progress in improving peacebuilding evaluation itself has slowed over the past several years. The cause of this is a set of interlocking problems in the way the peacebuilding field is organized. These in turn create systemic problems that hinder effective evaluation and the utilization of evaluation results. The Peacebuilding Evaluation Project, organized by USIP and the Alliance for Peacebuilding, brought funders and implementers together to work on solutions to the systemic problems in peacebuilding work. This report discusses these solutions, which are grouped into three categories: building consensus, strengthening norms, and disrupting practice and creating alternatives. Several initiatives in each of these categories are already under way.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Civil War, Peace Studies, War, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- United States
28. Afghanistan: The Impossible Transition
- Author:
- Gilles Dorronsoro
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- A combination of two critical problems threatens to undermine the mission of the United States-led coalition in Afghanistan: the failure of the counterinsurgency strategy and a disconnect between political objectives and military operations. If anything, the current strategy is making a political solution less likely, notably because it is antagonizing Pakistan without containing the rise of the armed opposition. That has put the coalition in a paradoxical situation, in which it is being weakened militarily by a non-negotiated and inevitable withdrawal while at the same time alienating potential negotiating partners.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, War, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
29. Force in Our Times
- Author:
- Robert Jervis
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Recent world politics displays two seemingly contradictory trends: on one hand, the incidence of international and even civil war shows a very great decline, but on the other hand the US, and to a lesser extent Britain and France, have been involved in many military adventures since the end of the Cold War. The causes are numerous, but among them are the unipolar structure of world politics, which presents the US with different kinds of threats and new opportunities. Central also is the existence of a Security Community among the leading states. A number of forces and events could undermine it, but they seem unlikely to occur. Even in this better world, however, recessed violence will still play a significant role, and force, like other forms of power, is most potent and useful when it remains far in the background.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Cold War, War, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States and France
30. The Commander's Emergency Response Program in Afghanistan: Five Practical Recommendations
- Author:
- Vijaya Ramachandran, Gregory Johnson, and Julie Walz
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The U.S. military has become substantially engaged in economic development and stabilization and will likely continue to carry out these activities in in-conflict zones for some time to come. Since FY2002, nearly $62 billion has been appropriated for relief and reconstruction in Afghanistan. The Commander's Emergency Response Program (CERP), which provides funds for projects to address urgent reconstruction and relief efforts, is one component of the military's development operations. In this analysis, we take U.S. military involvement in development as a given and concentrate on providing recommendations for it to operate more efficiently and effectively. By doing so, we are not advocating that the U.S. military become involved in all types of development activities or that CERP be used more broadly; rather, our recommendations address the military's capacity to carry out what it is already doing in Afghanistan and other in-conflict situations.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, War, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
31. Afghanistan Win or Lose: Transition and the Coming Resource Crisis
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The US confronts a wide range of challenges if it is to win the Afghan conflict in any meaningful sense, and leave a stable Afghanistan and Pakistan: Decide on US strategic objectives in conducting and terminating the war. These objectives not only include the defeat of Al Qaeda, but deciding on what kind of transition the US wishes to make in Afghanistan, what goals the US can achieve in creating a stable Afghanistan, US goals in Pakistan, and the broader strategic goals the US will seek in Central and South Asia. Defeat the insurgency not only in tactical terms, but also by eliminating its control and influence over the population and ability exploit sanctuaries in Pakistan and win a war of political transition. Create a more effective and integrated, operational civil and civil-military transition effort by NATO/ISAF, UN, member countries, NGO, and international community efforts through 2014 and for 5-10 years after the withdrawal of combat forces. Build up a much larger, and more effective, mix of Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). Give the Afghan government the necessary capacity and legitimacy (and lasting stability) at the national, regional/provincial, district, and local levels by 2014. Dealing with Pakistan in reducing the Taliban-Haqqani network in the NWFP and Baluchistan, and dealing with the broader risk Pakistan will become a failed nuclear weapons state. Shape a balance of post-transition relations with India, Iran, "Stans," Russia, and China that will help sustain posttransition stability. Make effective trade-offs in terms of resources relative to the priorities set by other US domestic and security interests.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, War, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United States
32. Reconstruction Zones in Afghanistan and Haiti
- Author:
- Graciana del Castillo
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The longest war and one of the largest relief efforts in U.S. history- in Afghanistan and Haiti, respectively-are testing the cost-effectiveness of U.S. foreign assistance in conflictravaged or disaster-torn countries. U.S.-led economic reconstruction in both countries is clearly off track and becoming increasingly costly and unpopular-both at home and in the respective countries. Reconstruction zones (RZs), consisting of two distinct but linked areas to ensure synergies between them-a local-production reconstruction zone (LRZ) producing for local consumption and an export-oriented reconstruction zone (ERZ) producing exclusively for export- could be used to replace the fragmented way aid is provided to these countries with an integrated strategy for economic reconstruction. With an appropriate legal and regulatory framework, ERZs-operating as free-trade zones- could create appropriate links to the national economy as well as positive externalities or spillovers. Such a framework would avoid the problems created by these zones operating as enclaves in Haiti in the past. By targeting aid to provide adequate infrastructure and services within the RZs at a manageable scale, countries could jump-start their productive sectors and create jobs and entrepreneurship in agriculture, light manufacturing, and services, both for domestic consumption and for exports. By creating dynamic and inclusive growth, RZs could help countries stand on their own feet, consolidate peace, and overcome the unsustainable aid dependency to which they have grown accustomed.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Humanitarian Aid, War, Natural Disasters, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Caribbean
33. Lessons from Embedded Provincial Reconstruction Teams in Iraq
- Author:
- John K. Naland
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Embedded provincial reconstruction teams (ePRTs) were small State Department- led units inserted into U.S. combat brigades in Iraq from 2007 to 2010 to support military counterinsurgency efforts at the local level. During major combat operations in 2007 and into 2008, ePRTs provided important support to military counterinsurgency efforts. As U.S. combat units wound down these efforts and withdrew from towns and cities, ePRTs did useful-but harder to quantify-work in mentoring local officials. Combat brigades and ePRTs generally worked well together. However, some units were unsure of how best to employ civilians. The military and civilians also sometimes had differing views on issues of short-term versus long-term goals. Despite problems, ePRT veterans believe that they had a positive effect in both supporting military counterinsurgency efforts and helping local Iraqi officials prepare for self-reliance. Interviewees identified a variety of operational problems that detracted from ePRT mission accomplishment. The Iraq ePRTs are now history, but as the United States continues to use civil-military teams in Afghanistan, these observed lessons need to be learned and acted upon.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, War, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Arabia
34. The Economics of Peace
- Author:
- Graciana del Castillo
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The United States' longest war, in Afghanistan, and one of the largest relief efforts in U.S. history, in Haiti, are testing U.S. leadership in the world, as well as its determination to deal with fiscal imbalances, the debt burden, and economic malaise at home. U.S.-led reconstruction in both countries is lagging and becoming increasingly expensive, and it will not succeed without a major change in strategy. U.S. goals in both countries will be elusive unless the misguided policies and misplaced priorities under which reconstruction has been taking place change in fundamental ways. Each country is different and will need to develop its own strategy. Nevertheless, we have identified basic rules, lessons, and best practices that national policymakers and the international community should keep in mind to improve the provision of aid and technical assistance. During the immediate transition from war or chaos, reconstruction is not development as usual: The peace (or political) objective should prevail at all times over the development (or economic) objective. Without peace there cannot be development. Policymaking should be tailored to four major differences from development as usual. Emergency policies should be adopted without delay, aid to groups most affected by crises should be prioritized, corruption should be checked, and national ownership of reconstruction policies must be assured. For both Afghanistan and Haiti, a broad-based debate-including national leaders, U.S. government officials, members of Congress, military leaders, academics, think tanks, and aid practitioners in these countries-is urgently needed and should take place without delay, as it did at the time of the Marshall Plan.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Haiti
35. A Review of the 2001 Bonn Conference and Application to the Road Ahead in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Mark Fields and Ramsha Ahmed
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Ten years ago in Bonn, Germany, the United Nations Envoy to Afghanistan, Ambassador Lakhdar Brahimi, and U.S. Envoy to the Afghan Opposition, Ambassador James Dobbins, led a diverse group of international diplomats and warriors to consensus and charted the political course for Afghanistan well into the decade. The process that led to the Bonn Agreement (Bonn 2001, or Bonn I) reflects the best of U.S. and United Nations statesmanship and was the result of the effective application of military and diplomatic power.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, NATO, United Nations, War, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Germany
36. The Political Ontology of Catastrophe: Inventing the Vulnerable Society, 1953-1958
- Author:
- Stephen J. Collier
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
- Abstract:
- This paper explores “system vulnerability thinking” as a specific response to the exigencies of thermonuclear war in the 1950s. It is one part of a collaborative project with Andrew Lakoff on the government of catastrophe in the post - World War II United States. The project focuses on the forms of expertise, the knowledge practices, and the governmental institutions that have been invented to anticipate and manage potential catastrophes, from natural disasters, to pandemic disease, to terrorism, to energy crises. In this project we have identified the reconfiguration of US government in the early years of the Cold War as a crucial moment in which the government of catastrophe in the post - World War II US took shape.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, War, and History
- Political Geography:
- United States
37. Deterrence and Escalation in Cross-domain Operations: Where Do Space and Cyberspace fit?
- Author:
- Vincent Manzo
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Warfare has become even more complicated since Richard Smoke wrote this description of escalation in 1977. The National Security Space Strategy describes space as “congested, contested, and competitive,” yet satellites underpin U.S. military and economic power. Activity in cyberspace has permeated every facet of human activity, including U.S. military operations, yet the prospects for effective cyber defenses are bleak. Many other actors depend on continued access to these domains, but not nearly as much as the United States.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States
38. Success, Lethality, and Cell Structure Across the Dimensions of Al Qaeda
- Author:
- Scott Helfstein and Dominick Wright
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- The death of Osama bin Laden on May 1, 2011 represents the culmination of a decade long fight to bring the perpetrators of the September 11 attacks to justice. Sustaining the effort needed to arrive at this point is a testament to the resilience of the counterterrorism community and nation, but it subsequently raises a series of questions regarding the future of al‐Qa'ida and the violent social movement spawned by bin Laden and fellow entrepreneurial jihadis. It is tempting to view his death as the end of a long struggle, but the violent extremists radicalized and mobilized by al‐Qa'ida's global jihadi narrative regard this as the end of the opening act. The terrorist threat that the United States and its allies face today has evolved in the years since September 11. Over that time, experts have engaged in heated debates over al‐Qa'ida's strategic center of gravity, with some stressing the importance of central leadership while others emphasize the threat from radicalized individuals unconnected with any formal organization. This seemingly academic debate about the nature of al‐Qa'ida is crucial to understanding the possible manifestations of the threat following bin Laden's death, as well as guiding the way forward for policymakers, practitioners, and the general public. The attached article tries to assess the threat al‐Qa'ida poses by looking across the different operational levels: the core, periphery, and movement. The core represents those in a hierarchical organization, marked by a leadership cadre tied to their followers. Those connected to the al‐Qa'ida network, but outside the control of core leadership, are the peripheral actors. For al‐Qa'ida, this is often best represented by affiliated or associated groups such as al‐Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) or al‐ Qa'ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). The final level is made up of those who are unconnected from the larger network, but motivated to action through the principles espoused by the ideological leaders. These individuals are part of a broader social movement that adheres to the narrative and perpetrates violent action, but remains distinct from the core or connected affiliates.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, War, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- United States
39. Making Peace in Afghanistan: The Missing Political Strategy
- Author:
- Minna Jarvenpaa
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The proposition that a political settlement is needed to end the war in Afghanistan has gained increasing attention in recent months. Channels for preliminary talks with Taliban leaders have been sought and a High Peace Council created. However, despite upbeat military assessments, the insurgency has expanded its reach across the country and continues to enjoy sanctuary in Pakistan. Afghans increasingly resent the presence of foreign troops, and the Taliban draw strength from grievances by ordinary Afghans against their government. External money to supply military bases and pay for development projects often ends up fueling conflict rather than creating stability. For their part, President Karzai and many Afghan political elites lack genuine commitment to reform, calling into question the viability of a state-building international strategy and transition by 2014. Missing is a political strategy to end the conflict that goes beyond dealing with the Taliban; it must define the kind of state that Afghans are willing to live in and that regional neighbors can endorse. Knowing that such a settlement could take years to conclude does not diminish the urgency of initiating the process. Given doubts about Karzai's ability to manage the situation effectively, the international community needs to facilitate a peace process more pro-actively than it has. To be sustainable, the process will need to be inclusive; women's rights, human rights, and media freedoms cannot become casualties of negotiations. Afghanistan's international partners should commit to a peace process and lay the groundwork to appoint a mediator. This includes gauging the interests of parties, identifying actual participants in talks, and structuring an agenda. In the meantime, international military efforts must be realigned to avoid action that contradicts the ultimate aim of a peace settlement.
- Topic:
- NATO, Treaties and Agreements, War, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Taliban
40. Women in Afghanistan: A Human Rights Tragedy Ten Years after 9/11
- Author:
- Hayat Alvi
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Human Rights Human Welfare (University of Denver)
- Abstract:
- Ten years after the September 11th attacks in the United States and the military campaign in Afghanistan, there is some good news, but unfortunately still much bad news pertaining to women in Afghanistan. The patterns of politics, security/military operations, religious fanaticism, heavily patriarchal structures and practices, and ongoing insurgent violence continue to threaten girls and women in the most insidious ways. Although women's rights and freedoms in Afghanistan have finally entered the radar screen of the international community's consciousness, they still linger in the margins in many respects.
- Topic:
- Security, Gender Issues, Human Rights, Human Welfare, War, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
41. The Effect of Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq
- Author:
- Radha Iyengar, Luke N. Condra, Joseph Felter, and Jacob N. Shapiro
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
- Abstract:
- A central question in intrastate conflicts is how insurgents are able to mobilize supporters to participate in violent and risky activities. A common explanation is that violence committed by counterinsurgent forces mobilizes certain segments of the population through a range of mechanisms. We study the effects of civilian casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan to quantify the effect of such casualties on subsequent insurgent violence. By comparing uniquely detailed micro-data along temporal, spatial, and gender dimensions we can distinguish short-run 'information' and 'capacity' effects from the longer run 'propaganda' and 'revenge' effects. In Afghanistan we find strong evidence that local exposure to civilian casualties caused by international forces leads to increased insurgent violence over the long-run, what we term the 'revenge' effect. Matching districts with similar past trends in violence shows that counterinsurgent-generated civilian casualties from a typical incident are responsible for 1 additional violent incident in an average sized district in the following 6 weeks and lead to increased violence over the next 6 months. There is no evidence that out-of-area events—errant air strikes for example—lead to increased violence, nor is there evidence of short run effects, thus ruling out the propaganda, information, and capacity mechanisms. Critically, we find no evidence of a similar reaction to civilian casualties in Iraq, suggesting the constraints on insurgent production of violence may be quite conflict-specific. Our results imply that minimizing harm to civilians may indeed help counterinsurgent forces in Afghanistan to reduce insurgent recruitment.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, War, Conflict, Violence, War on Terror, Civilians, and Casualties
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Middle East
42. The U.S. Senate and Iraq: Who Changed their Views, and Why?
- Author:
- Andrew Bennet and Andrew Loomis
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Focusing on the evolving views of the 77 U.S. Senators who voted to authorize the use of force in Iraq in 2002, we seek to explain why some political leaders changed their views markedly from 2002 to 2008 and others did not. We argue that in view of the great preponderance of evidence that the initial premises of U.S. intervention in Iraq were not fulfilled, Bayesian updating cannot by itself explain the persistence of divergent views on Iraq. It is also puzzling that a half-dozen senators persisted in their support of Bush's position on Iraq even though this may have contributed to their electoral defeat. We use a combination of political and psychological variables, including ideology, party affiliation, safety of the senator's seat, military service, cognitive style, and presidential aspirations to explain why some senators changed their public positions on Iraq within a year, others did so by 2006, still others in 2007, and some changed very little in more than five years. We combine these variables into a typological theory and test it against a qualitative analysis of 20 senators' views on Iraq. We conclude that our model is relatively successful in predicting not only when senators' views changed but what rationales they gave for why their initial expectations were not borne out. We also note several senators who prove important anomalies for our model, including Senators Lieberman, who was the only Democrat who did not move toward opposing Bush's policies, and McCain, who thus far has not moved toward the political center on Iraq despite having effectively secured his party's nomination.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Arabia
43. Obama's War: Prospects for the Conflict in Afghanistan and Pakistan
- Author:
- Bruce Riedel
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- On coming into office, President Barak Obama immediately assembled a team to assess the US situation in Afghanistan and formulate a strategy for the mission. Heading up this team was Bruce Riedel, a former adviser to Presidents Clinton and Bush and a former CIA officer. This paper, based on a CIGI Signature Lecture given by Mr. Riedel in April 2010, discusses the history of the US war on terror since 9/11, specifically the actors involved in initiating the al-Qaeda declaration of war on the US and its allies, and the recent terrorist plots and attacks linked to al-Qaeda, which demonstrate that al-Qaeda and its allies continue to mount terrorist attacks despite the efforts of the US to thwart terrorism.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, War, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United States
44. Obama's New Af-Pak Strategy: Can "Clear, Hold, Build, Transfer" Work?
- Author:
- C. Christine Fair
- Publication Date:
- 07-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- On entering the White House, US President Barack Obama aimed to put the war in Afghanistan at the forefront of his security agenda following eight years of neglect by a Bush administration preoccupied by the war in Iraq. The Obama administration spent nearly On entering the White House, US President Barack Obama aimed to put the war in Afghanistan at the forefront of his security agenda following eight years of neglect by a Bush administration preoccupied by the war in Iraq. The Obama administration spent nearly a year reviewing the situation in Afghanistan and vetting war options amid protracted interagency deliberation and partisan debate. By the end of 2009, President Obama affirmed his administration's commitment to degrading the capabilities of terrorist groups ensconced in Afghanistan and Pakistan and announced that, by the end of July 2011, the US would begin a conditions-based transfer of responsibility to the Afghan government and security forces, enabling the United States to diminish its kinetic military activities in favour of a more "typical" presence with Washington continuing to providing development and economic assistance, plus training for military and civilian personnel. Thus the counter-insurgency mantra of "clear, hold and build" became, under Obama, "clear, hold, build and transfer." This paper evaluates the viability of the "clear, hold, build and transfer" approach in light of the structural challenges to each element and the pressure to deliver results in a short time-frame amid difficult security conditions.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, War, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia
45. An Undisciplined Defense: Understanding the $2 Trillion Surge in US Defense Spending
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The rise in US defense spending since 1998 has no precedent in all the years since the Korean war. It most readily compares with two earlier, but lesser spending surges: the 1958-1968 surge of 43% and the 1975-1985 surge of 57%. The post-Cold War retrenchment of the US military reached its limit in 1998 with DoD's budget settling at an ebb point of $361.5 billion (2010 USD). If we treat the 1998 budget level as a “baseline” and project it forward to 2010 (adjusting for inflation), we find that the total amount of funds that have been given to DoD above this level during the years 1999-2010 is $2.15 trillion (in 2010 dollars). This figure constitutes what we call the post-1998 spending surge. (All told, DoD budget authority for the period was $6.5 trillion in 2010 dollars).
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States
46. An anvil of clay: Pakistan's military balks at Obama's Afghan surge
- Author:
- Robert Matthews
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Pakistan's cooperation is crucial to the success of the current US and Nato strategy in Afghanistan. Yet the Pakistani military not only has misgivings about the Nato surge but also its own agenda. Central to the discord is the military's view of the Afghan Taliban as assets to counter rival India's spreading Afghan footprint. The military views the US surge and the 18-month timeframe as acts of desperation by the Obama administration – as well as a vindication of Pakistan's strategy of keeping its options open through a “selective counter-insurgency approach”. Thus, there is little indication that Pakistan is willing to undertake campaigns against militants in the tribal areas. Or play the role of anvil to the US hammer along the Afghan-Pakistani border.
- Topic:
- NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and South Asia
47. US Withdrawal and Iraqi Security Forces: The Need for Continuing Aid
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Adam Mausner
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The security arena will face the most drastic changes in U.S.-Iraqi strategic relations over the next two years. Iraq must assume all responsibility for its internal and external security once the United States withdraws by December 31, 2011, unless it invokes the terms of the Strategic Agreement to seek additional US aid. Iraq must both deal with its own insurgents and with problems in its relations with neighboring countries like Iran, Syria, and the Gulf states. This makes the continued improvement of all elements of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) vital both to Iraq and to the stability of the region, during the period of US withdrawal in 2010-2011 and in the years that follow.
- Topic:
- War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria
48. State of the Union Address, 2010
- Author:
- Barack Obama
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- THE PRESIDENT: Madam Speaker, Vice President Biden, members of Congress, distinguished guests, and fellow Americans: Our Constitution declares that from time to time, the President shall give to Congress information about the state of our union. For 220 years, our leaders have fulfilled this duty. They've done so during periods of prosperity and tranquility. And they've done so in the midst of war and depression; at moments of great strife and great struggle.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Government, War, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
49. Prioritizing Strategic Interests in South Asia
- Author:
- Robert B. Oakley and T.X. Hammes
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The focus on the war in Afghanistan has prevented the United States from developing a South Asia strategy rooted in the relative strategic importance of the nations in the region. India, a stable democracy enjoying rapid growth, clearly has the most potential as a strategic partner. Pakistan, as the home of al Qaeda leadership and over 60 nuclear weapons, is the greatest threat to regional stability and growth. Yet Afghanistan absorbs the vast majority of U.S. effort in the region. The United States needs to develop a genuine regional strategy. This paper argues that making the economic growth and social reform essential to the stability of Pakistan a higher priority than the conflict in Afghanistan is a core requirement of such a strategy.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Economics, Terrorism, War, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, and India
50. Private Contractors in Conflict Zones: The Good, the Bad, and the Strategic Impact
- Author:
- T.X. Hammes
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- In Iraq and Afghanistan, the use of contractors reached a level unprecedented in U.S. military operations. As of March 31, 2010, the United States deployed 175,000 troops and 207,000 contractors in the war zones. Contractors represented 50 percent of the Department of Defense (DOD) workforce in Iraq and 59 percent in Afghanistan. These numbers include both armed and unarmed contractors. Thus, for the purposes of this paper, the term contractor includes both armed and unarmed personnel unless otherwise specified. The presence of contractors on the battlefield is obviously not a new phenomenon but has dramatically increased from the ratio of 1 contractor to 55 military personnel in Vietnam to 1:1 in the Iraq and 1.43:1 in Afghanistan.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Privatization, War, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Iraq
51. Loose Ends: Iraq's Security Forces Between U.S. Drawdown and Withdrawal
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Much is at stake in the never-ending negotiations to form Iraq's government, but perhaps nothing more important than the future of its security forces. In the seven years since the U.S.-led invasion, these have become more effective and professional and appear capable of taming what remains of the insurgency. But what they seem to possess in capacity they lack in cohesion. A symptom of Iraq's fractured polity and deep ethno-sectarian divides, the army and police remain overly fragmented, their loyalties uncertain, their capacity to withstand a prolonged and more intensive power struggle at the top unclear. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has taken worrying steps to assert authority over the security apparatus, notably by creating new bodies accountable to none but himself. A vital task confronting the nation's political leaders is to reach agreement on an accountable, non-political security apparatus subject to effective oversight. A priority for the new cabinet and parliament will be to implement the decision. And a core responsibility facing the international community is to use all its tools to encourage this to happen.
- Topic:
- Security, War, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
52. Habeas Works: Federal Courts' Proven Capacity to Handle Guantánamo Cases
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Human Rights First
- Abstract:
- Habeas is working. The judges of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia have ably responded to the Supreme Court's call to review the detention of individuals at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba. As former federal judges, many of us expressed our confidence as amici in Boumediene v. Bush that courts are competent to resolve these cases. We write now to affirm that our confidence has been vindicated. While we take no position on particular cases, a review of the District Court's treatment of the Guantánamo litigation convinces us that the court has effectively developed a consistent, coherent, and stable jurisprudence.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Terrorism, War, and Law
- Political Geography:
- United States and Cuba
53. Preparing for One War and Getting Another?
- Author:
- Antulio J. Echevarria II
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- Current trends in defense thinking show signs of being influenced by the notion that preparing for one form of war has brought about another. We find evidence of this notion in a number of official speeches, the 2008 National Defense Strategy, and the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review Report. It is captured in the almost routine claim that America's superiority in conventional warfare is so great that it is driving our adversaries toward irregular methods. All of these examples share the basic assumption that we are now fighting (and will likely continue to fight) conflicts for which we have not prepared—precisely because we have not prepared for them. Thus, the modern complement—a preparation paradox—to the old Latin adage “If you want peace, prepare for war,” might well be “If you want one kind of war, prepare for another.”
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Terrorism, War, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
54. Some of the Best Weapons for Counterinsurgents Do Not Shoot
- Author:
- Eric T. Olson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- If the U.S. Army's current experience in ongoing overseas operations like those in Iraq and Afghanistan are any indication, reconstruction has become an integral part of the American way of war. And judging from the disappointing results of reconstruction efforts in these operations, measured mostly in terms of the effect that such efforts have had on the course of these wars, there is much lacking in the Army's understanding of reconstruction itself and the role that it will likely play in all future operations, especially in counterinsurgencies (COIN).
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Terrorism, War, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
55. An Army Transformed: The U.S. Army's Post-Vietnam Recovery and the Dynamics of Change in Military Organizations
- Author:
- Suzanne C. Nielsen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- During the 2 decades preceding the Persian Gulf War in 1991, the U.S. Army went through tremendous reform and rejuvenation. It recovered from the Vietnam War, transitioned to an all-volunteer personnel model, and refocused on a potential future war against a very capable adversary in Europe. The Army's transformation was evident to external observers: from being seen as an organization in distress in the early 1970s, by 1991 the Army became an organization whose professionalism was the source of admiration. Drawing on the relevant literature, the author seeks to explain this important case of military change.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, War, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Vietnam
56. Congress and National Security
- Author:
- Kay King
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Much has been written, blogged, and broadcast in the past several years about the dysfunction of the U.S. Congress. Filibusters, holds, and poison pill amendments have become hot topics, albeit intermittently, as lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have increasingly exploited these tactics in pursuit of partisan or personal ends. Meanwhile, such pressing national issues as deficit reduction, immigration reform, and climate change have gone unresolved. To be fair, the 111th Congress has addressed many significant issues, but those it has addressed, such as health-care reform and economic stimulus, exposed Americans to a flawed process of backroom deals that favors obstruction over deliberation, partisanship over statesmanship, and narrow interests over national concerns. Although partisan politics, deal making, and parliamentary maneuvering are nothing new to Congress, the extent to which they are being deployed today by lawmakers and the degree to which they obstruct the resolution of national problems are unprecedented. This may explain why Congress registered a confidence level of only 11 percent in July 2010, marking its lowest rating ever in the annual Gallup institutional confidence survey and ranking it last among sixteen major U.S. institutions.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and War
- Political Geography:
- United States
57. A Third Lebanon War: CPA Contingency Planning
- Author:
- Daniel C. Kurtzer
- Publication Date:
- 07-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Lebanon has been a flashpoint for Arab-Israeli violence and military confrontations since the mid1970s. Its political system is weak and outside parties continue to vie for political advantage as part of a larger regional conflict. In particular, Syria and Iran provide support for the militant Islamist group Hezbollah as a strategic asset to pressure Israel. Hezbollah now controls most of southern Lebanon, while its political wing has developed a strong presence in the Lebanese parliament. In July and August 2006, Israel and Hezbollah fought what became known as the “Second Lebanon War,” which killed and displaced many thousand s of people and destroyed much of Lebanon's infrastructure. Since then Hezbollah has steadily rearmed in contravention of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which requires, inter alia, “the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon, so that, pursuant to the Lebanese cabinet decision of July 27, 2006, there will be no weapons or authority in Lebanon other than that of the Lebanese state” and “no sales or supply of arms and related materiel to Lebanon except as authorized by its government.” Hezbollah's arsenal is more potent in quantity and quality today than it was in 2006. Although the border area between Israel and Lebanon is quieter than at any time in the previous decade, speculation that a third Lebanon war will occur in the next twelve to eighteen months has been steadily rising. Israel could decide the security threat posed by Hezbollah has reached intolerable levels and take preemptive military action. Hezbollah, while outwardly showing no interest in confronting Israel at this time, may for various reasons choose or be pressured by Iran to flex its new military capabilities. As happened in 2006, even small-scale military engagements with limited objectives can escalate into a major conflict. Whatever the precipitating reasons, a new conflict over Lebanon would have significant implications for U.S. policy and interests in the region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, War, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, United Nations, Lebanon, and Syria
58. Military Escalation in Korea: CPA Contingency Planning
- Author:
- Paul B. Stares
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Tensions ran perilously high on the Korean peninsula in the months after the sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan on March 26, 2010, which claimed the lives of forty-six sailors. An international investigation subsequently attributed the incident to a North Korean torpedo attack, prompting both South Korea and the United States to impose new punitive measures on the regime in Pyongyang and to conduct a series of high-profile naval exercises to deter further provocations. These actions elicited an especially vituperative response from North Korea, including the threat to unleash a “retaliatory sacred war.”
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Israel, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
59. Third Generation Civil-Military Relations and the 'New Revolution in Military Affairs'
- Author:
- Frederik Rosén
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- This paper identifies a new development in civil-military relations, which I suggest calling third-generation civil-military relations. Third-generation civil-military relations are the product of military organisations embarking on civil governance roles and the creation of deep partnerships between military and civil agencies. They appear to be less dramatic than 'traditional' civil-military relations (Blue Helmets, Provincial Reconstructions Teams) in that they do not create the same visible alignment on the ground between military and non-military identities. Yet they do represent a momentous development for the US military's engagement in Afghanistan in particular, as well as challenging our understanding of the role of the military in global security, thus adding a new complexity to international security cooperation. This complexity concerns differing opinions with regard to what kinds of tasks the military should do and what it should not. It is about norms and principles rather than about violent consequences for civilians. There are many tasks for which most military organisations are unsuitable, because they lack the necessary expertise and institutional capability. But these are practical matters rather than being about the normative 'should' questions: Should the military train civil police? Should the military work on civil reform areas in the Afghan Ministry of Interior? Should the military engage in civil justice-sector reform? The common reply to such questions is – or has been – no. Yet developments on the ground point precisely towards such an expansion of military affairs.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia
60. Securing Afghanistan
- Author:
- Seth G. Jones and C. Christine Fair
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- More than seven years after U.S. forces entered Afghanistan, important gains made in bringing stability and democracy to Afghanistan are imperiled. While there have been some positive developments in such areas as economic growth, the Taliban and other insurgent groups have gained some ground in the country and in neighboring Pakistan, the drug trade remains a significant problem, and corruption has worsened in the Afghan government. According to United Nations data, insurgent incidents have increased every year since the 2001 overthrow of the Taliban regime. The situation in parts of Afghanistan's south and east is particularly concerning because of the twin menace of insurgent and criminal activity. Despite these challenges, the insurgency remains deeply fractured among a range of groups, and most have little support among the Afghan population. This presents an opportunity for Afghans and the international community to turn the situation around.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Development, Economics, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia
61. Iraq, its Neighbors, and the Obama Administration: Syrian and Saudi Perspectives
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The top concern for both Riyadh and Damascus remains blowback from Iraq: the ascendance of ethnic and sectarian identity and the spread of Islamist militancy. The need to contain this threat is the dominant force that shapes their relations with Iraq. Both Syria and Saudi Arabia have a vital interest in ensuring that Iraq's emerging political order is inclusive of Sunni Arab Iraqis, who have not yet been fully incorporated into Iraqi institutions. Syria and Saudi Arabia do not look at Iraq in isolation, nor do they assign it top priority among their foreign policy concerns. For them, Iraq is merely one element in a comprehensive view encompassing other regional players (including the U.S. and Iran) and other regional crises, particularly the Arab-Israeli conflict. Lingering resentment and bitterness toward Washington is now mixed with intense curiosity and modest optimism about President Barack Obama. Saudis still bristle when recalling how the Bush Administration sidelined Riyadh on Iraqi matters; as do Syrians, who believe the previous administration was intent on isolating and undermining Damascus. Iraq remains very much isolated in its neighborhood. Recent Progress on regional cooperation notwithstanding, these two neighbors are still focused more on containment than engagement.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
62. Dysfunction and Decline: Lessons Learned From Inside al-Qa'ida in Iraq
- Author:
- Brian Fishman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- Al-Qa`ida in Iraq (AQI) is a shadow of its former self, primarily because broad sectors of Iraq's Sunni population rejected it after more than three years of active and tacit cooperation. Anger over AQI's brutal radicalism infused the Sunni backlash against jihadists, but AQI also made two fundamental strategic overreaches that exacerbated its alienation from Sunnis in Iraq. First, it incited a sectarian backlash from Iraqi Shi'a without the means to defend Iraq's Sunnis from the onslaught it provoked. Second, AQI created a formal political entity, the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), to dominate Iraq after a U.S. withdrawal without adequate support from Iraq's Sunni population.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
63. Pakistan and the Future of U.S. Policy
- Author:
- Malou Innocent
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- A spreading Islamic insurgency engulfs the amorphous and ungoverned border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. After initial victories by the United States and the Northern Alliance in autumn 2001, hundreds of Taliban and al Qaeda fighters fled Afghanistan to seek refuge across the border in Pakistan's rugged northwest. Since 2007, the number of ambushes, militant offensives, and targeted assassinations has risen sharply across Afghanistan, while suicide bombers and pro-Taliban insurgents sweep through settled areas of Pakistan at an alarming pace. For better and for worse, Pakistan will remain the fulcrum of U.S. policy in the region—its leaders continue to provide vital counterterrorism cooperation and have received close to $20 billion in assistance from the United States, yet elements associated with its national intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence, covertly assist militant proxy groups destabilizing the region
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Islam, and War
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, and Asia
64. Private Military and Security Companies: A Framework for Regulation
- Author:
- James Cockayne and Emily Speers Mears
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- In late 2008, seventeen states, including the US, UK, China, Iraq, and Afghanistan, endorsed the Montreux Document on Pertinent International Legal Obligations and Good Practices for States Related to Operations of Private Military and Security Companies During Armed Conflict. This provides important guidance to states in regulating Private Military and Security Companies (PMSCs). But there is a need to do more, to provide increased guidance to industry and ensure standards are enforced.
- Topic:
- Security, International Law, Privatization, Treaties and Agreements, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, China, Iraq, and United Kingdom
65. Enemies, Irregular Adversaries, Spoilers, Non-compliant Actors. How the Definition of Actors Influences Afghanistan Strategies
- Author:
- Grant Dansie
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Current descriptions and explanations of the situation in Afghanistan include the use of a wide range of terms; however the true meaning of these terms is often unclear. In planning and outlining effective strategy clear and useful definitions will be required to ensure worthwhile and successful results. This study examines how definitions may significantly affect strategy by focusing on the example of non-violent or low level violent actors in Afghanistan that are perceived as negatively affecting international peace and stability operations. It highlights that the situation is inherently more complex that at first glance. Our definitions may carry entrenched meanings that negatively affect our perceptions of certain actors. At the same time the situation on the ground is extremely complex with numerous factors influencing this perceived negative behaviour. The study outlines a number of dilemmas involved in developing these definitions, as well as highlighting how these play out on the ground. The study draws on a number of interviews with NGO workers, researchers, Western government officials and NATO/ISAF troops.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, NATO, War, and Non State Actors
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
66. Die Intervention der Vereinten Nationen in Somalia
- Author:
- Nils Goede
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Development and Peace
- Abstract:
- Der Report analysiert die Entscheidungsprozesse des Sicherheitsrats der Vereinten Nationen, die am 3. Dezember 1992 zu der Verabschiedung der Somalia‐Resolution 794 geführt haben. Fürdie Analyse wird der Multiple‐Streams‐Ansatz verwendet. Im Rahmen des Ansatzes warden Entscheidungssituationen als mehrdeutige Stimuli in Bezug auf Informationen, Ziele und Messkriterien betrachtet. Entscheidungen sind vor einem solchen Hintergrund oft weder rational begründbar, noch sind sie gezwungenermaßen linear‐kausal mit einem bestimmten Problem verbunden. Die Organisation ist stets mit einer hohen Anzahl von simultan auftretenden Problemen und Optionen konfrontiert und muss unter Zeitdruck bestimmen, welche Probleme und Handlungsoptionen auf die Agenda gesetzt werden und in welchen Themenbereichen eine Entscheidung ansteht. Lösungen werden hierbei zu einem bestimmten Zeitpunkt (künstlich) in Übereinstimmung mit Problemen und Akteuren gebracht und in eine Entscheidung transferiert. Die Untersuchung führt zu dem Ergebnis, dass die Verabschiedung der Resolution 794 weniger auf die tatsächliche Problemlage in Somalia zurückzuführen war als auf Dynamiken des amerikanischen Wahlkampfs und den stetigen Einsatz des VNGeneralsekretärs Boutros Boutros‐Ghali.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, United Nations, War, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, and Somalia
67. The Future of Pakistan-U.S. Relations: Opportunities and Challenges
- Author:
- Maleeha Lodhi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- Relations between Pakistan and the United States are today defined by a paradox. Never have ties been more vital for both countries. But never has the relationship been so mired in mutual mistrust and suspicion.
- Topic:
- Islam, War, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, and South Asia
68. In Pursuit of Justice: Prosecuting Terrorism Cases in the Federal Courts — 2009 Update and Recent Developments
- Author:
- Richard B. Zabel and James J. Benjamin
- Publication Date:
- 07-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Human Rights First
- Abstract:
- In May 2008, Human Rights First released In Pursuit of Justice: Prosecuting Terrorism Cases in the Federal Courts.1 Based on a comprehensive review of more than 120 actual prosecutions dating back to the 1980s, In Pursuit of Justice concluded that the criminal justice system is well-equipped to handle a broad variety of criminal cases arising from terrorism that is associated—organizationally, financially, or ideologically—with selfdescribed “jihadist” or Islamist extremist groups like al Qaeda. The roster of cases chronicled in In Pursuit of Justice ranges from blockbuster trials against hardened terrorists who planned or committed grievous acts around the world to complex terrorism-financing prosecutions and “alternative” prosecutions based on nonterrorism charges such as immigration fraud, financial fraud, and false statements. Many of these cases have been preemptive prosecutions focused on preventing and disrupting terrorist activities. In Pursuit of Justice acknowledged that terrorism prosecutions can present difficult challenges, and that the criminal justice system, by itself, is not “the answer” to the problem of international terrorism, but it found that the federal courts have demonstrated their ability, over and over again, to effectively and fairly convict and incapacitate terrorists in a broad variety of terrorism cases.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, War, and Law
- Political Geography:
- United States
69. A "New" Strategy for Afghanistan and Its Region
- Publication Date:
- 08-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- The Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination (LISD) at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs convened a private workshop, “A Strategy for Afghanistan and Its Region,” May 7-10, 2009 in Triesenberg, Liechtenstein. The workshop's aim was to discuss in-depth the strategy of the Obama Administration toward Afghanistan and its region and to formulate additional recommendations. Some twenty leading international experts from the region, Asia, Europe and the United States participated. The meeting was co-funded by LISD, the Carnegie Corporation of New York, and the Stiftung für Selbstbestimmung und Internationale Beziehungen (SiBiL) in Vaduz, Liechtenstein. The workshop was co-chaired by Francesc Vendrell and Wolfgang Danspeckgruber.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Islam, War, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, New York, and Europe
70. U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy
- Author:
- Charles D. Ferguson, Brent Scowcroft, and William J. Perry
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- For more than sixty years, the United States and the world have benefited immeasurably from a de facto taboo on the use of nuclear weapons. Today, however, this period of nonuse may come to an end, given the rise of a new type of terrorist who seeks to acquire and would not hesitate to detonate nuclear weapons. Moreover, the emergence of more states with nuclear weapons capabilities has raised the likelihood of the use or loss of control of nuclear weapons or the materials used to make them. The imperative before the Obama administration, therefore, is to use all available tools to prevent the use and further acquisition of nuclear weapons. This Task Force report identifies how to leverage U.S. nuclear weapons posture and policy to achieve that objective. It focuses on near-term steps, primarily over the next four years.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States
71. Perspectives from Fragile Crescent: A South Asia Crisis Simulation
- Author:
- Steven J. Tomisek, Christopher S. Robinson, and Kenneth Kligge
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The Obama administration has arguably inherited the toughest national security environment since the end of World War II. Instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan has propelled South Asia to the top of a U.S. national security agenda already crowded with a long list of major problems that includes North Korea, Iran, and Iraq. The political, security, and economic trends in Afghanistan and Pakistan have taken a turn for the worse, as the two countries confront an increasingly violent Taliban-led insurgency and al Qaeda–linked militant jihadist groups. To make matters even worse, Pakistan's relations with India have been damaged by the November 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, National Security, War, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Iran, South Asia, North Korea, and Mumbai
72. U.S. Aid to Pakistan—U.S. Taxpayers Have Funded Pakistani Corruption
- Author:
- Azeem Ibrahim
- Publication Date:
- 07-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- There is widespread agreement that aid to Pakistan has not been spent effectively over the past decade. There is less agreement over how to fix it. This paper contributes to the debate in two ways.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Terrorism, War, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and United States
73. Enhancing Full-Spectrum Flexibility: Striking the Balance to Maximize Force Effectiveness in Conventional and Counterinsurgency Operations
- Author:
- William D. Anderson, Jr.
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- With the United States currently engaged in difficult and taxing counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, renewed emphasis has been focused upon the country's cap abilities and priorities vis - à - vis this type of warfare. Within the military, the Air Force has been especially and increasingly criticized for being too enamored with a Cold - War era conventionally minded force structure and for not shifting aggressively to meet the threats of COIN - style conflicts that many predict will be pervasive throughout the Global War on Terror.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Terrorism, War, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Iraq
74. Afghanistan: What Now for Refugees?
- Publication Date:
- 08-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- As international efforts focus on the worsening insurgency in Afghanistan, the issues of refugee return and the mobility of Afghans in their country and around the region have been overshadowed. Meeting the needs of returnees and addressing population movements remain an essential part of finding a solution to the conflict. These issues must be better integrated into policymaking. They play a role in many of the sources of discontent that undermine the legitimacy of the government in Kabul – from land disputes to rising crime. Migration has a positive side as well since t hose living abroad sustain much of the economy, but a comprehensive approach to displacement and migration is needed, including better coordination among Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran, if the benefits are to start outweighing the risks.
- Topic:
- Security, War, and Refugee Issues
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Iran, and Kabul
75. MRAPs, Irregular Warfare, and Pentagon Reform
- Author:
- Christopher J. Lamb, Matthew J. Schmidt, and Berit G. Fitzsimmons
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- Mine resistant ambush protected (MRAP) vehicles offer an excellent case study for investigating the current debate over the Pentagon's approach to developing and fielding irregular warfare capabilities. MRAPs first gained prominence for their ability to protect U.S. forces from improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and because the Pentagon did not deploy them en masse to Iraq until almost 5 years of fighting had passed. More recently, following extraordinary efforts to field more than 10,000 MRAPs quickly, the program has been criticized as wasteful and unnecessary.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Nationalism, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iraq
76. Afghanistan's Police: The Weak Link in Security Sector Reform
- Author:
- Robert M. Perito
- Publication Date:
- 08-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- In seven years, the Afghan National Police forces have grown to 68,000 personnel, with a target end strength of 86,000. The ANP includes the uniformed police force, which is responsible for general police duties, and specialized police forces, which deal with public order, counternarcotics, terrorism, and border control. Despite the impressive growth in numbers, the expenditure of $10 billion in international police assistance, and the involvement of the United States, the European Union, and multiple donors, the ANP is riddled with corruption and generally unable to protect Afghan citizens, control crime, or deal with the growing insurgency. The European Union has replaced Germany as the lead partner for police reform, but the United States has the largest police program, which is directed by the U.S. military. Putting soldiers in charge of police training has led to militarization of the ANP and its use as a counterinsurgency force. Using improperly trained, equipped, and supported ANP patrol men as “little soldiers” has resulted in the police suffering three times as many casualties as the Afghan National Army. Police are assigned in small numbers to isolated posts without backup and are targeted by the insurgents. Beyond funding the Taliban, the explosion in Afghan narcotics production fueled widespread corruption in the Afghan government and police. Drug abuse by police officers became increasingly common as did other forms of criminal behavior. Challenges facing the ANP were further compounded by a proliferation of bilateral police assistance programs that reflected the policing practices of donor countries. These efforts often were not coordinated with the larger U.S. and EU programs, creating confusion for the ANP. The Obama administration has acknowledged the importance of the police and announced its intentions to expand and improve the ANP as a key part of its plan for stabilizing Afghanistan. It should do this as part of a broader international community approach to police assistance that embraces a comprehensive program for security sector reform and rule of law.
- Topic:
- Security, War, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Europe, and Asia
77. Obama's Address to the Nation on the Way Forward in Afghanistan and Pakistan, December 2009
- Author:
- Barack Obama
- Publication Date:
- 12-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- President Obama gave this address on December 1, 2009 at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, New York.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, War, Armed Struggle, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and New York
78. Sun Zi's Art of War and U.S. Joint Professional Military Education
- Author:
- Phillip C. Saunders
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) and National War College (NWC) jointly hosted a conference on “Sun Zi's Art of War and U.S. Joint Professional Military Education” on October 6, 2009. This was the first conference to bring together leading academic experts and faculty from all major U.S. military academies and senior Service schools. The morning session, an integral part of the NWC core course on war and statecraft, featured speakers who explored the historical context and modern military applications of Sun Zi. The afternoon session provided a forum for dialogue and an exchange of ideas between leading academic experts from civilian institutions and professors and military practitioners who teach Art of War at professional military education (PME) institutions. The panelists addressed a range of topics relevant to how to teach Sun Zi, including identifying best practices and potential pitfalls, translation issues, research gaps, and opportunities to engage foreign counterparts.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, War, and Political Theory
- Political Geography:
- United States
79. YouTube War: Fighting in a World of Cameras in Every Cell Phone and Photoshop on Every Computer
- Author:
- Cori E. Dauber
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- There is a vast literature on the potential for new technologies to create a Revolution in Military Affairs or “networked warfare,” but that is a discussion of the impact of military technology on the way the force itself can be used. Today there is a question regarding the impact of new communication and information technologies in the hands of civilians—some of whom are combatants—on the environment in which the force will be used. This monograph argues that the impact of these technologies has been, and will be, great enough that the way they are shaping the battlefield needs to be understood.
- Topic:
- Security, Science and Technology, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States
80. Schools for Strategy: Teaching Strategy for 21st Century Conflict
- Author:
- Colin S. Gray
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- Because strategic performance must involve the ability to decide, to command, and to lead, as well as the capacity to understand, there are practical limits to what is feasible and useful by way of formal education in strategy. The soldier who best comprehends what Sun-tzu, Clausewitz, and Thucydides intended to say, is not necessarily the soldier best fitted to strategic high command. It is important to distinguish between intellect and character/personality. The superior strategist is ever uniquely a product of nature/biology, personality/psychology, and experience/opportunity. Nonetheless, formal education has its place.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States
81. Talent: Implications for a U.S. Army Officer Corps Strategy
- Author:
- Casey Wardynski, David S. Lyle, and Michael J. Colarusso.
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- For years, the U.S. Army has given “competency” pride of place in its officer development doctrine. In popular usage, competent means having requisite or adequate ability, and in a labor market context, it is defined as “an enduring combination of characteristics that causes an appropriate level of individual performance.”
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States
82. The Army's Professional Military Ethic in an Era of Persistent Conflict
- Author:
- Don M. Snider, Major Paul Oh, and Kevin Toner.
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The purpose of the Army's Ethic is stated clearly in Field Manual (FM) 1, The Army . It is “to maintain [the Army's] effectiveness.” The implication is as clear as it is true—without such an ethic, the Army cannot be effective at what it does. As is well-documented in the literature of professions, their ethics provide the primary means of social direction and control over their members as they perform their expert duties, often under chaotic conditions. For the Army profession, its evolving expert knowledge in the moral-ethical domain is what enables the profession to develop individual professionals—Soldiers and their leaders—to fight battles and campaigns “effectively and rightly,” as expected by the client the profession serves. Without such good, right, and just application of its expertise, the Army will lose its lifeblood—the trust of the American people.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
83. Fixing Bagram: Strengthening Detention Reforms to Align with U.S. Strategic Priorities
- Author:
- Sahr MuhammedAlly
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Human Rights First
- Abstract:
- Eight years after launching Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) in Afghanistan—with a mission to kill and capture “high-value” al Qaeda and Taliban members and destroy the safe havens from which al Qaeda planned and directed the 9/11 attacks—the United States government has announced several significant detention reforms in Afghanistan. Human Rights First has closely monitored U.S. detention policies and practices since September 11, 2001. In this paper, we analyze the new detention reforms announced in September 2009 and make recommendations for further improvement in U.S. detention practices in line with U.S. policy interests and legal obligations. We base our recommendations on an analysis of the applicable humanitarian and human rights law and field visits to Afghanistan.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Human Rights, Terrorism, War, and Prisons/Penal Systems
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Taliban
84. Bush, Clausewitz, and the Grand Strategic Imperative: Keeping Political Ends Primary
- Author:
- Bryan Groves
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
- Abstract:
- As President George W. Bush relinquishes the reigns as Commander-in-Chief to President Barak Obama, it is fitting to reflect on how the country will remember President Bush in years to come. Whether or not one agrees with his decision to commit U.S. forces to military action against Saddam Hussein and his Ba'ath Party regime in Iraq, it is clear that Bush's legacy will largly be determined by how Iraq turns out--whether as a stable, free, and peace-loving democracy or something short of that. There is certainly plenty of room for continued improvement in the conditions on the ground and ample time for the political, security, and economic situation to yet deteriorate. Yet, since "The Surge" and the change in U.S. counterinsurgency strategy in Iraq, developments in Iraq have taken a fundamentally and undeniably positive turn.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
85. The Somali conflict: The role of external actors
- Author:
- Bjørn Møller
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Somalia has been without a functioning state ever since 1991, when the former dictator, Siyad Barre, was overthrown. None of the competing factions were strong enough to take his place as ruler of the country, producing first chaos, but gradually a form of stateless order. The international interventions have ever since the failed, and counter-productive intervention by the United Nations and the United States in the early 1990 exacerbated rather than mitigated the problems, let alone solved them. This was especially the case for the Ethiopian invasion (December 2006-January 2009), which produced utter chaos and a severe humanitarian crisis. Since the withdrawal of the Ethiopian forces, Islamist extremist militias have been establishing control of Somalia, and they may or may not be able to maintain this control. If they pursue their radical programme of Islamisation, their reign is likely to be short, but if they moderate themselves they may retain control.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, United Nations, and War
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, and Somalia
86. Political Murder in Central Asia: No Time to End Uzbekistan's Isolation
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- There are strong indications that Uzbek security forces murdered one of Kyrgyzstan's most prominent journalists, Alisher Saipov, in October 2007 during the build-up to Uzbekistan's end of year presidential elections, most likely because of his involvement in Erk (Freedom), a leading exile opposition party. If this is the case, it would appear that the security organs, which are the key to keeping President Islam Karimov in power, are increasingly willing to move against any perceived danger, even if it involves pre-emptive strikes in foreign territory. This may be a sign not only of the ruthlessness of the regime but also of its increasing fragility. At the least it underlines the need for the U.S. and the European Union (EU) to resist the temptation to respond to Karimov's dubious December 2007 re-election with efforts at re-engagement, in the apparent hope of regaining or retaining military bases for Afghanistan operations or of outflanking Russia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan
87. Afghanistan: The Need for International Resolve
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan is not lost but the signs are not good. Its growing insurgency reflects a collective failure to tackle the root causes of violence. Six years after the Taliban's ouster, the international community lacks a common diagnosis of what is needed to stabilise the country as well as a common set of objectives. Long-term improvement of institutions is vital for both state building and counterinsurgency, but without a more strategic approach, the increased attention and resources now directed at quelling the conflict could even prove counterproductive by furthering a tendency to seek quick fixes. Growing tensions over burden sharing risk undermining the very foundations of multilateralism, including NATO's future. The U.S., which is demanding more commitment by allies, must realise that its unilateral actions weaken the will of others. At the same time, those sniping from the sidelines need to recognise that the Afghan intervention is ultimately about global security and do more.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Asia, and Taliban
88. Russia vs Georgia: The Fallout - Europe Report N°195
- Publication Date:
- 08-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Russia-Georgia conflict has transformed the contemporary geopolitical world, with large consequences for peace and security in Europe and beyond. Moscow's initial moves into South Ossetia as large-scale violence broke out there on 7-8 August were in part a response to a disastrous miscalculation by a Georgian leadership that was impatient with gradual confidence building and a Russian-dominated negotiations process. But Russia's disproportionate counter-attack, with movement of large forces into Abkhazia and deep into Georgia, accompanied by the widespread destruction of economic infrastructure, damage to the economy and disruption of communications and movement between different regions of the country, constitutes a dramatic shift in Russian-Western relations. It has undermined regional stability and security; threatened energy corridors that are vital for Europe; made claims with respect to ethnic Russians and other minorities that could be used to destabilise other parts of the former Soviet Union, with Ukraine a potential target; and shown disregard for international law.
- Topic:
- NATO, International Political Economy, and War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Asia, Soviet Union, Moscow, Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia
89. Iraq after the Surge I: The New Sunni Landscape
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Against the odds, the U.S. military surge contributed to a significant reduction in violence. Its achievements should not be understated. But in the absence of the fundamental political changes in Iraq the surge was meant to facilitate, its successes will remain insufficient, fragile and reversible. The ever-more relative lull is an opportunity for the U.S. to focus on two missing ingredients: pressuring the Iraqi government to take long overdue steps toward political compromise and altering the regional climate so that Iraq's neighbours use their leverage to encourage that compromise and make it stick. As shown in these two companion reports, this entails ceasing to provide the Iraqi government with unconditional military support; reaching out to what remains of the insurgency; using its leverage to encourage free and fair provincial elections and progress toward a broad national dialogue and compact; and engaging in real diplomacy with all Iraq's neighbours, Iran and Syria included.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Syria
90. Iraq after the Surge II: The Need for a New Political Strategy
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Against the odds, the U.S. military surge contributed to a significant reduction in violence. Its achievements should not be understated. But in the absence of the fundamental political changes in Iraq the surge was meant to facilitate, its successes will remain insufficient, fragile and reversible. The ever-more relative lull is an opportunity for the U.S. to focus on two missing ingredients: pressuring the Iraqi government to take long overdue steps toward political compromise and altering the regional climate so that Iraq's neighbours use their leverage to encourage that compromise and make it stick. As shown in these two companion reports, this entails ceasing to provide the Iraqi government with unconditional military support; reaching out to what remains of the insurgency; using its leverage to encourage free and fair provincial elections and progress toward a broad national dialogue and compact; and engaging in real diplomacy with all Iraq's neighbours, Iran and Syria included.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria
91. Learning the Right Lessons from Iraq
- Author:
- Benjamin H. Friedman, Harvey Sapolsky, and Christopher Preble
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Foreign policy experts and policy analysts are misreading the lessons of Iraq. The emerging conventional wisdom holds that success could have been achieved in Iraq with more troops, more cooperation among U.S. government agencies, and better counterinsurgency doctrine. To analysts who share these views, Iraq is not an example of what not to do but of how not to do it. Their policy proposals aim to reform the national security bureaucracy so that we will get it right the next time.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
92. Securing Pakistan's Tribal Belt
- Author:
- Daniel Markey
- Publication Date:
- 07-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Today, few places on earth are as important to U.S. national security as the tribal belt along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan. The region serves as a safe haven for a core group of nationally and internationally networked terrorists, a training and recruiting ground for Afghan Taliban, and, increasingly, a hotbed of indigenous militancy that threatens the stability of Pakistan's own state and society. Should another 9/11-type attack take place in the United States, it will likely have its origins in this region. As long as Pakistan's tribal areas are in turmoil, the mission of building a new, democratic, and stable Afghanistan cannot succeed.
- Topic:
- Terrorism and War
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Asia, and Taliban
93. A Comprehensive and Inclusive Peace Process for Chad
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Policy Information Center
- Abstract:
- Analysts, policy makers and experts are now accepting that the conflicts in Chad and Sudan have mutually reinforcing dynamics. Chad's internal political instability is having devastating consequences on the peace processes in Sudan and the Central African Republic (CAR). The U.N. Security Council Sanctions Committee Panel of Experts on Sudan stated that Chad supports Sudanese insurgent groups with arms, ammunition, vehicles, food, training and safe haven Violations of humanitarian law and international human rights continue unabated in the region and violators in eastern Chad operate in an environment of almost total impunity. A new U.S. Government strategy must be created to stabilize Chad and bring to an end the continued degradation of conditions in the region. This strategy must work in parallel with the peace process for Sudan and with the efforts led by the “Contact Group” to normalize Chad-Sudan relations.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Health, Human Rights, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, Peace Studies, United Nations, and War
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, and Sudan
94. "The Kitsch of War: Misappropriating Sun Tzu for an American Imperial Hypermasculinity
- Author:
- L.H.M. Ling and Ching-Chane Hwang
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Sun Tzu seems more popular than ever. The Bush Administration attributes its successful invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq to tactics in The Art of War such as “shock and awe” and “decapitation.” However, neither exists in Sun Tzu's manual. More seriously, this misappropriation reinforces an imperial hypermasculinity in US foreign policy given its neoliberal logic of “conversion or discipline” for Self/Other relations. Rival camps of imperial hypermasculinity arise in reaction, thereby rationalizing the US Self's resort to such in the first place. Locking the world into ceaseless rounds of hostility between opposed enemies, we argue, contradicts Sun Tzu's purpose. The Art of War sought to transform, not annihilate, the enemy as mandated by the cosmo-moral, dialectical world order that governed Sun Tzu's time. In misappropriating Sun Tzu, then, the Bush Administration turns The Art of War into mere kitsch.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, War, and Political Theory
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Iraq
95. 9/11 and the Paradox of American Power
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The September 2001 attacks on the United States facilitated the formation of an effective domestic consensus on post-Cold War US globalism – a goal that had eluded the Clinton administration. The centerpiece of that consensus is the "war on terrorism." This puts US global engagement in a "war-fighting" framework, which has strong institutional, cultural, and ideological resonances in the American polity. And it admits both neo-conservative and neo-liberal varieties. However, the attendant surge in US military activism has proved both fabulously expensive and largely counter-productive. Moreover, it has helped undermine America's already-troubled hegemonic position within the Western and allied camp.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Imperialism, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
96. Business as Usual: An Assessment of Donald Rumsfeld's Transformation Vision and Transformation's Prospects for the Future
- Author:
- Mark G. Czelusta
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Donald Rumsfeld's vision of a transformed United States military has been discussed by many and understood by few. It is no surprise that this lack of understanding has resulted in both significant simplifications and sweeping generalizations, to include the Reuters headline noted above. Even the term, “Rumsfeld's Transformation,” accounts for neither the historical influences that led to his vision, nor the multiple components of this transformational effort.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Asia
97. In Pursuit of Justice: Prosecuting Terrorism Cases in the Federal Courts
- Author:
- Richard B. Zabel and James J. Benjamin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Human Rights First
- Abstract:
- This White Paper examines the capability of the federal courts to handle criminal cases arising from international terrorism. In the Paper, we focus on terrorism that is associated— organizationally, financially, or ideologically—with selfdescribed “jihadist” or Islamist extremist terrorist groups like al Qaeda. Many observers have expressed views on this important subject. Some have argued for prosecuting terrorist criminals outside of the civilian court system; others have called for the establishment of an entirely new “national security court.” A premise of such arguments is that the traditional court system is not well-equipped to handle international terrorism cases. We aim to explore that premise.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States
98. Dissent and Strategic Leadership of the Military Professions
- Author:
- Don Snider
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- Vice Admiral James Stockdale, Vietnam prisoner of war and Medal of Honor recipient, once said, “Even in the most detached duty, we warriors must keep foremost in our minds that there are boundaries to the prerogatives of leadership, moral boundaries.”
- Topic:
- International Relations and War
- Political Geography:
- United States
99. Women in Combat Compendium
- Author:
- Michele Putco and Douglas V. Johnson II
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- This compendium resulted from a request by Colonel Michele Putko for sponsorship of a “Women in Combat Study” as a multistudent elective alternative. Dr. Douglas Johnson agreed to sponsor the project on the condition that the perspectives of male officers who had commanded units with women in them be specifically included, as their views might provide a different evaluation of performance. As the editing of the original papers extended into the following student year, Colonel Mark Lindon's paper filled an obvious gap, that of documenting the progressive change in public opinion. It has, therefore, been included. This compendium resulted from a request by Colonel Michele Putko for sponsorship of a “Women in Combat Study” as a multistudent elective alternative. Dr. Douglas Johnson agreed to sponsor the project on the condition that the perspectives of male officers who had commanded units with women in them be specifically included, as their views might provide a different evaluation of performance. As the editing of the original papers extended into the following student year, Colonel Mark Lindon's paper filled an obvious gap, that of documenting the progressive change in public opinion. It has, therefore, been included.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Gender Issues, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States
100. Outsourcing the Big Stick: The Consequences of Using Private Military Companies
- Author:
- Ulrich Petersohn
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The outsourcing of military functions is always accompanied by a loss of control over the use of force. Whereas the variances in handling consequences by weak versus strong states have already been addressed in other studies, we know little about the causes of differences among strong states. I will argue that strong states are very well aware of the risk of losing control by outsourcing. In order to mitigate the risk, they develop outsourcing strategies. The strategies of the two states considered here—the United States and Germany—are similar. Despite the resemblance, the U.S. Army faces much greater losses of control than does the German Bundeswehr. This is the result of differences in the compliance with their respective strategies. Whereas the Bundeswehr almost always sticks to its strategy, the U.S. Army instead violates it in numerous cases. This difference can be explained by the different scopes of the two forces' demand-capability gap, a factor that directly affects compliance-behavior with the strategy. The larger the gap, the less compliance is shown and the greater the loss of control. Since the U.S. Army experiences a larger gap than the Bundeswehr, the former suffers a greater loss of control.
- Topic:
- War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Germany