Content Type: Working Paper / Political Geography: United States / Publication Year:

2701. Banking and Finance Assistance

Author:: Eugene Spiro
Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: The Banking and Finance Assistance Centre (BFAC) of the East West Institute is an independent, international centre whose mission is to provide assistance to financial sector leaders in the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the former Soviet Union (FSU). BFAC was established in 1992 by the East West Institute in response to the need expressed by bank executives and finance officials in CEE for a centre to provide impartial, professional, technical advice and assistance in the course of designing and implementing reform initiatives. Supported, among others, by the EWI network and in particular the United States Agency for International Development, BFAC's projects also cover capital markets and pension reform and small- and medium-sized enterprise development.
Topic:: Development and Economics
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Eastern Europe

2702. Governing Global Finance: Financial derivatives, liberal states and transformative capacity

Author:: William D. Coleman
Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
Abstract:: Global finance is simultaneously one of the most globalized and one of the most esoteric sectors in the world economy. Within global finance, perhaps no activity is more esoteric and more difficult to understand than the buying and selling of derivatives. Their names are familiar perhaps – futures, options, forwards, swaps – but their nature is obscure. Simply put, derivatives are financial instruments that are used to hedge risk. If a Canadian corporation knows that it will want to buy 50 million US dollars on foreign exchange markets in three months time, it can arrange a fixed price for that purchase using a financial contract called a derivative. In doing so, it lowers the risk of the price of the currency changing drastically before it purchases the amounts it needs.
Topic:: Globalization, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: United States and Canada

2703. Fourth Freedom Forum Cosponsors Conference on Averting Nuclear Anarchy

Author:: Joseph Rotblat
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:: On March 31 the Fourth Freedom Forum joined with the Joan B. Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame, the Union of Concerned Scientists, the Lawyers Alliance for World Security, and the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists to sponsor a one-day conference at the University of Notre Dame on the crisis in nu;clear arms control and the need for greater efforts to reduce and eliminate nuclear weapons. The conference featured a keynote address by Nobel Prize laureate Dr. Joseph Rotblat. Other speakers included Rev. Theodore M. Hesburgh, C.S.C.; former ambassador Thomas Graham, MIT research fellow Lisbeth Gronlund, former assistant secretary; of Defense Sarah Sewall, and Forum president David Cortright. Remarks of some of the speakers follow.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: United States

2704. Nation of Origin Bias and the Enforcement of Immigration Laws by the Immigration and Naturalization Service

Author:: Jim F. Couch, Brett King, William H. Wells, and Peter M. Williams
Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Independent Institute
Abstract:: The Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) is charged with the task of administering citizenship requests, providing for the proper documentation of temporary foreign workers, and apprehending illegal aliens. The apprehension of illegals, the most controversial duty of the INS, has placed the agency squarely in the headlines. The recent raid to seize Elian Gonzalez from his Miami relatives brought opprobrium upon the agency. The action, which involved 131 INS agents – some heavily armed – resulted in calls of discrimination from Miami's Cuban community. This paper examines the inconsistent enforcement patterns of the INS and attempts to determine what factors may account for INS activity. We conjecture that the agency is influenced by political pressure and may practice discrimination against certain illegals.
Topic:: Government and Migration
Political Geography:: United States and Cuba

2705. Between Dialogue and Partnership: What North-South Relationship Across the Mediterranean?

Author:: Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:: 11-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In the post-September 11th evolution a new transatlantic dimension is emerging based in the struggle against terrorism in a global perspective. Terrorism is identified as today's central threat to international security and co-operation.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

2706. Strategic Challenges for the Bush Administration

Author:: Stephen J. Flanagan
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: As the Bush administration settles into office, the United States confronts an international environment marked by growing volatility and rapid change. What security challenges will the new administration face, and what strategies are available for managing these challenges? To answer these questions, leading policy specialists in the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University recently prepared a series of assessments for the Department of Defense. These perspectives are presented in this occasional paper. Together with the Institute's previously published Report of the National Defense University Quadrennial Defense Review 2001 Working Group, these assessments offer a broad menu of security policy choices.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and International Law
Political Geography:: United States

2707. Cluster Bombs: the Case for New Controls

Author:: Hugh Beach
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Security Information Service
Abstract:: Cluster Weapons consist of a large number of sub-munitions (“bomblets”) which are dispensed from a metal canister in mid-air and then disperse over a distance of several hundred metres. They are inherently indiscriminate since, once dispensed, the bomblets are un-guided and a threat to military and civilians alike. Bomblets are designed to knock out armoured vehicles but can also kill people to a radius of 30-40 metres.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

2708. Reinvigorating Multilateral Arms Control

Author:: Herbert Wulf and Michael Brzoska
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Security Information Service
Abstract:: Institutionalised or negotiated arms control at the multilateral level within the United Nations system and the bilateral level between the US and Russia fell into a state of crisis in the mid 1990s. Several factors contributed to this crisis. Firstly, with the slow but continuous disintegration of Russia's military apparatus the US emerged as the dominant power in international security relations. It has increasingly come to believe that it can control smaller states by military means and its interest in arms control has waned accordingly. Secondly, traditional arms control has proven too rigid in light of emerging post-Cold War security concerns. Regional and internal conflicts have resulted in more emphasis on UN peacekeeping operations and controlling or eliminating the weapons most commonly used in these wars (such as landmines, small arms and light weapons). When it became clear that it would not be possible to negotiate the landmines ban within traditional arms control institutions, so-called 'friendly states' began to develop new parallel fora. The Ottawa Process, which consisted of fast-track diplomatic negotiations culminating in the signing of the Landmines Convention, is an example of this new type of arms control initiative. Thirdly, the main aim of arms control is no longer stability, whereby states aim to maintain parity and build trust. Instead, the focus has turned to limiting the costs of armaments acquisition and disarmament
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

2709. Fieldwork Methodology for a CDIE Assessment of USAID and Poverty Reduction Approaches

Author:: Jonathan Sleeper and Lynn Salinger
Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:: The World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, U.N. agencies, many bilateral donors, and a number of developing countries have made poverty reduction their overarching development objective. The United States was a signatory in 1996 to the OECD/DAC's international development goals, which included halving of world poverty by 2015. Under the aegis of a comprehensive development framework which empowers national partners to design and implement their own development actions, debt relief for the world's most heavily indebted poor countries is being linked by the multinational development organizations to the development of national Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs).
Topic:: Development, Economics, Human Welfare, and Poverty
Political Geography:: United States

2710. Complex Emergencies And USAID's Humanitarian Response

Author:: Lynda DeWitt
Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:: In 1998 some 32 million people needed humanitarian assistance because they were caught up in complex emergencies (armed conflicts or civil wars). That same year, the United States spent $898 million on humanitarian assistance. This amount represented 10.2 percent of official development assistance and was more than triple the amount spent on humanitarian assistance in 1990.
Topic:: Civil Society, Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States

2711. Defining U.S. National Security for the Next Generation

Author:: John C. Gannon
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:: In the post-Cold War world, the United States is challenged by a broader definition of U.S. national security that must take into account a wide range of factors that will contribute to stability or stimulate conflict in the years ahead. For these reasons, it makes sense today, more than ever, for a national security analyst to be engaged with USAID officers in a conference on global conflict prevention. We need to understand how such factors as demographics, natural resources, the environment, economic growth, globalization, and the quality of governance will challenge governments and the international community and, in some cases, sow the seeds of conflict threatening to U.S. interests.
Topic:: Human Welfare and International Organization
Political Geography:: United States

2712. Building Foundations for Cooperative Behavior Through U.S. Foreign Aid

Author:: Jr. Hawkins
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:: Why do crime levels decrease in a government housing project located in one poor Indianapolis neighborhood but not in similar surrounding neighborhoods? Why do Nepalese farmers in selfgoverning systems consistently outperform their government-managed projects? Why have Turkish fishermen been able to govern inshore fisheries for two-hundred-plus years when theory and conventional wisdom would suggest they should fail?
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Human Welfare, and International Organization
Political Geography:: United States

2713. Rethinking Development Assistance and the Role of AID in U.S. Foreign Policy

Author:: Jane Holl Lute
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:: What should be the role of development assistance in U.S. foreign policy? In a time when major political, economic, and social transformation has altered so much of the international landscape, how are important U.S. interests served through the distribution of development aid? More fundamentally, what needs (that is, what needs of the United States) does a program of development assistance meet? What should be the goals of this program? What strategies should guide aid distribution to help best meet those goals?
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Human Welfare, and International Organization
Political Geography:: United States

2714. International Constraints and Indigenous Strengths in Preventive Development

Author:: Jonathan Moore
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:: I agree with Brady Anderson's guidance that “USAID's development policy and portfolio include integrated interventions aimed at addressing the effects of underlying social, economic and political problems.” My point of departure is that the only real prevention of conflict is root cause development, and that this cannot be separated from —but is closely connected to and part of—the crucial stage of post-conflict mitigation and rebuilding efforts. I will attempt to consider the implications for this proposition in three parts: the international “outside” perspective; the outlook from “inside” the crisis country; and where, broadly, combining these two points of view brings us.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Human Welfare, and International Organization
Political Geography:: United States

2715. How Do We Change the Way We Use Foreign Assistance to Help Prevent Deadly Conflicts?

Author:: Ted Morse
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:: The topic of this paper is how do we change the way foreign assistance works in an increasingly unstable world: it has been interpreted to mean how do we change the way we use foreign assistance to help prevent deadly conflicts.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Human Welfare, and International Organization
Political Geography:: United States

2716. Developing a More Effective Conflict Prevention Capacity in an Increasingly Unstable World

Author:: Randolph Pherson
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:: USAID wants to be proactive in developing a more robust capability to: Identify the root causes of deadly violent conflict and economic and political crises. Use analytic and programmatic tools at USAID's disposal to mitigate and, to the extent possible, prevent potential economic and political crises and deadly violent conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Human Welfare, and International Organization
Political Geography:: United States

2717. Fear, Security and the Apocalyptic World View: The Cold War's Cultural Impact and Legacy

Author:: Paul S. Boyer
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Clarke Forum for Contemporary Issues
Abstract:: In 1967, Louis Halle published a book called The Cold War as History. If that title seemed jarring and premature in 1967, it would simply appear obvious and conventional today. The Cold War is receding from our collective consciousness with breathtaking rapidity. Cold War encyclopedias are appearing; an Oxford Companion to the Cold War will doubtless arrive at any moment. To the college freshmen of 2000 — seven years old when Ronald Reagan left the White House — the Cold War is merely a chapter in a textbook, an hour on the History Channel, not lived experience.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Cold War, and Communism
Political Geography:: Russia and United States

2718. Policy Space and voting Coalitions in Congress: the Bearing of Policy on Politics, 1930-1954

Author:: Ira Katznelson, John Lapinski, and Rose Razaghian
Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:: The question of how the substance of politics helps shape legislative coalitions and bases of support has been displaced from the center of studies of Congress since the publication of pioneering work in the 1960s and early 1970s. Seeking to revive this research program, we apply an original coding scheme in tandem with a factor analytic analysis of voting and policy space to the period spanning the last years of the Hoover presidency to the start of Eisenhower's. Investigating legislator parameters—the dimensions of voting space—and roll call parameters—the dimensions of policy space—the paper confirms the strong independent impact of the substance of policy on the political decisions of legislators and reveals an issue-specific concatenation of party and region that altered over the course of the period.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: United States

2719. When (And How) Regions Become Peaceful: Explaining Transitions From War To Peace

Author:: Benjamin Miller
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:: Three important regions have moved from war to peace during the 20th century: South America in the beginning of the century, Western Europe in the middle while the Middle East has begun the move toward the end of the century. Not only did these moves take place in different periods in this century, but they also resulted in completely different types and levels of peace. How can we best explain these transitions and variations? Western Europe moved from a major war-zone to a zone of peace in the years following World War II. South America started the move to regional peace, even if not perfectly, much earlier in the 20th century. However, since the late 1950s Western Europe has reached a much higher level of peace than South America. A vigorous peace process began in the Middle East, in contrast, only in the early 1990s and the peace there is still much more fragile than in the other regions.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and South America

2720. International And Transatlantic Images Of Belonging: The United States And Europe In The 21st Century

Author:: John A. Hall
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:: This topic was suggested to me by a fellow academic. Otherdirectedness has normally appealed to me in intellectual affairs, for it has encouraged thought on subjects otherwise not on my agenda. But I am uncomfortable on this occasion. Explaining why I feel as if I have been offered what chess players' refer to as a poisoned pawn allows immediate highlighting of the argument to be made.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

2721. Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015

Publication Date:: 12-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: The ballistic missile remains a central element in the military arsenals of nations around the globe and almost certainly will retain this status over the next fifteen years. States willingly devote often scarce resources in efforts to develop or acquire ballistic missiles; build the infrastructures necessary to sustain future development and production; and actively pursue technologies, materials, and personnel on the world market to compensate for domestic shortfalls, gain increased expertise, and potentially shorten development timelines.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: United States

2722. The Global War on Terrorism

Publication Date:: 12-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: On September 11, terrorists attacked freedom. The world has responded with an unprecedented coalition against international terrorism. In the first 100 days of the war, President George W. Bush increased America's homeland security and built a worldwide coalition that: Began to destroy al-Qaeda's grip on Afghanistan by driving the Taliban from power. Disrupted al-Qaeda's global operations and terrorist financing networks. Destroyed al-Qaeda terrorist training camps. Helped the innocent people of Afghanistan recover from the Taliban's reign of terror. Helped Afghans put aside long-standing differences to form a new interim government that represents all Afghans – including women.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:: United States

2723. An Empirical Comparison of Bundesbank and ECB Monetary Policy Rules

Author:: John H. Rogers, Jonathan H. Wright, and Jon Faust
Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: We estimate a monetary policy reaction function for the Bundesbank and use it as a benchmark to assess the monetary policy of the ECB since the launch of the euro in January 1999. We find that euro interest rates are low relative to this benchmark. We consider several possible reasons for this, including the divergence between core and headline inflation, inflation having turned out to be higher than could have been foreseen by the ECB and the possibility that the ECB is focussing only on macroeconomic conditions in a subset of member countries. We argue that these potential explanations cannot account for the difference between recent interest rates and our estimated Bundesbank benchmark. Our results suggest that the reaction function of the ECB features a high weight on the output gap relative to the weight on inflation, compared to the Bundesbank.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

2724. Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Author:: Jane Ihrig and Joseph E. Gagon
Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: The pass-through of exchange rate changes into domestic inflation appears to have declined in many countries since the 1980s. We develop a theoretical model that attributes the change in the rate of pass-through to increased emphasis on inflation stabilization by many central banks. This hypothesis is tested on twenty industrial countries between 1971 and 2003. We find widespread evidence of a robust and statistically significant link between estimated rates of pass-through and inflation variability. We also find evidence that observed monetary policy behavior may be a factor in the declining rate of pass-through.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

2725. Battling International Bribery 2001

Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: The battle against international bribery and other forms of public corruption remains a high priority for the United States. As President George W. Bush stated in his May 2001 message to the Second Global Forum on Fighting Corruption, “The corruption of governmental institutions threatens our common interests in promoting political and economic stability, upholding core democratic values, ending the reign of dictators, and creating a level playing field for lawful business activities.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:: United States

2726. Report on Biological Warfare Defense: Vaccine Research Development Programs

Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: Section 218 of the Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2001, Public Law (PL) 106-398 (at Appendix A) requires the submission of a report to the congressional defense committees on the acquisition of biological defense vaccines for the Department of Defense (DoD). As required by section 218, PL 106-398, this report addresses: 1) the implications of relying on the commercial sector to meet the DoD's biological defense vaccine requirements; 2) a design for a government-owned, contractor-operated (GOCO) vaccine production facility; 3) preliminary cost estimates and schedule for the facility; 4) consultation with the Surgeon General on the utility of such a facility for the production of vaccines for the civilian sector and the impact of civilian production on meeting Armed Forces needs and facility operating costs; and 5) the impact of international vaccine requirements and the production of vaccines to meet those requirements on meeting Armed Forces needs and facility operating costs.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Human Welfare, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

2727. Russia in the International System

Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: Russia's Foreign Policy Russian foreign policy in the coming years will be characterized by weakness; frustration--primarily with the United States as the world's preeminent power--over Russia's diminished status; generally cautious international behavior; and a drive to resubjugate, though not reintegrate, the other former Soviet states. The international situation affords Russia time to concentrate on domestic reforms because, for the first time in its history, it does not face significant external threats. But rather than use the breathing space for domestic reforms, Putin is as much--if not more--focused on restoring Russia's self-defined rightful role abroad and seeking to mold the CIS into a counterweight to NATO and the European Union. The Outside World's Views of Russia Russia does not have any genuine allies. Some countries are interested in good relations with Russia, but only as a means to another end. For example, China sees Russia as a counterweight to the United States but values more highly its ties with the United States. Some countries see Russia as a vital arms supplier but resent Russia also selling arms to their rivals (China-India, Iran-Iraq). Pro-Russia business lobbies exist in Germany, Italy, Turkey, and Israel (one-fifth of whose population now consists of Soviet émigres), but they do not single-handedly determine national policies. Europe is the only region that would like to integrate Russia into a security system, but it is divided over national priorities and institutional arrangements as well as put off by some Russian behavior. Most CIS governments do not trust their colossal neighbor, which continues to show an unsettling readiness to intervene in their internal affairs, though they know Russia well and are to a considerable degree comfortable in dealing with it. Turkey has developed an improved dialogue and an unprecedented number of economic ties with Russia during the post-Cold War period, but this more positive pattern of relations has not fully taken root, and Ankara remains suspicious of Moscow's intentions. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moscow's role in the Middle East has been reduced, but Israel, Syria, Egypt, Libya, and Iraq all favor good relations with Russia. Mutual interests also override disagreements in Russian-Iranian relations, but Tehran is wary of Russian behavior, particularly toward Saddam Hussein. India still trusts Russia--a sentiment that is perhaps a residue of the genuine friendship of Cold War days--but clearly not in the same way it once did, and New Delhi fears that weakness will propel Russia into doing things that could drive India further away. In East Asia, the most substantial breakthrough has been the resurrected relationship between Russia and China, one that entails significant longer-term risk for Russia. Other countries in the region value their links with Moscow as a means to balance a more powerful China, or as a useful component of their larger political and economic strategies, but Russia's role in East Asia--as elsewhere--remains constrained by the decline in its political, military, and economic power over the last decade. Russia's Weakness Russia's weakness stems from long-term secular trends and from its domestic structure. In essence, the old nomenklatura and a few newcomers have transformed power into property on the basis of personal networks and created an equilibrium resting on insider dealings. These insiders may jockey for position but have a vested interest in preserving the system. The public does not like the system but is resigned to it and gives priority to the preservation of order. As for the economy, it is divided into a profitable, internationally integrated sector run by oligarchs and a much larger, insulated, low-productivity, old-style paternalistic sector that locks Russia into low growth. No solace will be forthcoming from the international business and energy worlds. They do not expect the poor commercial climate to improve greatly and will not increase investments much beyond current levels until it does. Militarily, Russia will also remain weak. Its nuclear arsenal is of little utility, and Moscow has neither the will nor the means to reform and strengthen its conventional forces. Hope for the Future? The best hope for change in Russia lies with the younger generation. Several participants reported that under-25 Russians have much more in common with their US counterparts, including use of the Internet, than with older Soviet generations. But there was some question over whether the new generation would change the system or adapt to it. Others placed some hope in international institutions, for instance the World Trade Organization, eventually forcing Russia to adapt to the modern world. Dissenting Views Some participants dissented from the overall forecast of depressing continuity. The keynote speaker, James Billington, stated that Russia would not be forever weak and that the current confusion would end in a few years either through the adoption of authoritarian nationalism or federated democracy. One scholar felt the Chechen war was feeding ethnic discord in other areas of the Federation to which Moscow would respond with increased authoritarianism, not necessarily successfully. Finally, a historian observed that the patience of Russians is legendary but not infinite, meaning that we should not be overly deterministic.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Development
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, Middle East, and Israel

2728. Permanent and Transitory Components of Business Cycles: Their Relative Importance and Dynamic Relationship

Author:: Chang-Jin Kim, Jeremy Piger, and Richard Startz
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: This paper investigates the relationship between permanent and transitory components of U.S. recessions in an empirical model allowing for business cycle asymmetry. Using a common stochastic trend representation for real GNP and consumption, we divide real GNP into permanent and transitory components, the dynamics of which are different in booms vs. recessions. We find evidence of substantial asymmetries in postwar recessions, and that both the permanent and transitory component have contributed to these recessions. We also allow for the timing of switches from boom to recession for the permanent component to be correlated with switches from boom to recession in the transitory component. The parameter estimates suggest a specific pattern of recessions: switches in the permanent component lead switches in the transitory component both when entering and leaving recessions.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Mexico

2729. Second Annual Report

Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: The Commission considerably broadened its activities in its second full year, monitoring religious-freedom violations worldwide and increasing the number of countries it would study in depth. In July, the Commission wrote to the Secretary of State to recommend that Laos, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Turkmenistan be added to the list of “countries of particular concern” as provided for in the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998 (IRFA). It also recommended that Burma, China, Iran, Iraq, Sudan, the Milosevic regime in Serbia and the Taliban in Afghanistan remain on the list. In addition, it wrote that India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam are serious violators of religious freedom deserving careful State Department monitoring; it also expressed concerns about sectarian violence in Indonesia and Nigeria.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Human Rights, and Religion
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, China, Iraq, Iran, Sudan, Taliban, and Vietnam

2730. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Future DoD Airborne High-Frequency Radar Needs/Resources

Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: The Defense Science Board Task Force was formed to address questions related to the development of X-band, active, electronically steered arrays (AESAs) for airborne platforms. Areas focused on were advanced radar capabilities for ground targets and air targets.The airborne radar inventory can be divided into three broad categories:(1) Air target surveillance and cueing radars mounted in rotodomes (e.g., AWACS,-2C).(2) Nose- mounted fighter radars for air and ground targets (e.g., F-15, F-16, F-22, JSF).(3) Side-looking radars for ground reconnaissance, surveillance, and cueing (e.g., U-2, JSTARS, Global Hawk). Categories (2) and (3) are dominated by X-band radars; the insertion of AESA technology into category (3) was the primary subject for this task force.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Development, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

2731. The Use of Cyclical Indicators in Estimating the Output Gap in Japan

Author:: Jane Haltmaier
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: The paper uses capital and labor utilization rates to derive estimates of the Japanese output gap and potential output. Two techniques are used. The first uses the cyclical indicators to adjust potential output estimates derived from a Hodrick-Prescott filter over the most recent period when such estimates are generally considered to be unreliable. The second estimates equilibrium levels of the cyclical indicators and uses an Okun's Law-type relationship to derive output gaps and potential output. The second method is also applied to the components of potential output to derive a third estimate. These methods suggest that the current Japanese output gap is considerably larger than a simple Hodrick-Prescott filter would suggest.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Japan

2732. Home Bias and High Turnover Reconsidered

Author:: Francis E. Warnock
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: The Tesar and Werner (1995) finding of very high turnover rates on foreign equity portfolios is based on an underestimation of cross-border equity positions. Foreign turnover rates calculated using information from comprehensive benchmark surveys on cross-border holdings are much lower than previously reported and comparable to domestic turnover rates. However, the basic intuition from the Tesar-Werner study, that transaction costs do not help explain the observed home bias, is confirmed using data on transaction costs in 41 markets.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

2733. A Retrospective on J. Denis Sargan and His Contributions to Econometrics

Author:: Neil R. Ericsson, Esfandiar Maasoumi, and Grayham E. Mizon
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: This retrospective provides a biographical history of Denis Sargan's career and reviews his contributions to econometrics, emphasizing the breadth of his work in both theoretical and applied econometrics. We include a complete bibliography for Denis and a list of PhD theses that he supervised--students were a substantive facet of his professional life. Finally, two of Denis's previously unpublished manuscripts on model building now appear in print.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

2734. Border Effects within the NAFTA Countries

Author:: John H. Rogers and Hayden P. Smith
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: Using consumer price indexes from cities in the U.S., Canada and Mexico, we estimate the "border effect" on U.S.-Mexican relative prices and find that it is nearly an order of magnitude larger than for U.S.-Canadian prices. However, during a very stable sub-period in Mexico (May 1988 to November 1994), the "width" of the U.S.-Mexican border falls dramatically and becomes approximately equal to the U.S.-Canadian border. We then show that when consideration is limited to cities lying geographically very close to the U.S.-Mexican border--San Diego, Los Angeles, Houston, Dallas, Tijuana, Mexicali, Juarez, and Matamoros--the border width falls compared to that estimated with the full sample of U.S. and Mexican cities, but falls only very slightly. We also present evidence that the border effect in U.S.-Mexican prices is not primarily due to the border effect in U.S.-Mexican wages. Finally, using the prices of 276 highly dis-aggregated goods and services, we estimate the variability of relative prices of different items within Mexican cities. This measure of relative price variability declines during the stable peso sub-period, but by less than the decline in nominal and real (i.e., CPI-based) exchange rate variability. Our results are strong evidence of a "nominal border effect" in relative prices within NAFTA, but also indicate that real side influences are important.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Canada, North America, and Mexico

2735. Growing Global Migration and Its Implications for the United States

Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: During the next 15 years, globalization, demographic imbalances between OECD and developing countries, and interstate and civil conflicts will fuel increasing international migration, much of it illegal. Migration will have positive and negative consequences for sending and receiving countries alike. Other countries' responses to migration issues will affect migration pressures on the United States and a broad range of US economic and security interests.
Topic:: Security, Demographics, and Migration
Political Geography:: United States

2736. Protecting the Homeland: Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Defensive Information Operations 2000 Summer Study Volume II

Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: In its 1996 report, the Defense Science Board (DSB) recommended that the Pentagon invest an additional $3 billion to strengthen defenses of its information networks. This report was viewed by some as unrealistic and prophetic by others, but in all cases it faced a readership with a very uneven appreciation of the effects of disruptive technology and dicontinuous change. The defense establishment has increased its intellectual capital on the subject of Defensive Information Systems (DIO) considerably since 1996. However, it has yet to fully accomodate the realities of an information intensive future in its architecture, processes, and investments. Technology has continued to evolve and the problems have become much more difficult and complex. DoD must now accomplish more than anyone could have imagined in 1996. Perhaps more important is the dawning realization that incremental modifications to our existing institutions and processes will not produce the adaptation we need.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Economics, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

2737. Report on Allied Contributions to the Common Defense 2001

Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: The United States and its allies face a diverse set of challenges to collective security. These include regional or state-centered threats (such as regional aggressors); transnational threats (including terrorism, international crime, drug trafficking, and illicit arms trafficking); the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery; and the spread of dangerous technologies (including non-safeguarded, dual-use technologies). Additional challenges include threats to the environment and public health (e.g., new infectious diseases), and from foreign intelligence collection, failed states, and other states that tolerate or actively engage in human rights abuses, ethnic cleansing, or acts of genocide that can endanger regional stability by sparking civil wars and refugee crises.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:: United States and Australia/Pacific

2738. Forecast Uncertainty in Economic Modeling

Author:: Neil R. Ericsson
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: This paper provides an introduction to forecast uncertainty in empirical economic modeling. Forecast uncertainty is defined, various measures of forecast uncertainty are examined, and some sources and consequences of forecast uncertainty are analyzed. Empirical illustrations with the U.S. trade balance, U.K. inflation and real national income, and the U.S./U.K. exchange rate help clarify the issues involved.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and United Kingdom

2739. Patience, Persistence, and Welfare Costs of Incomplete Markets in Open Economies

Author:: Jinill Kim, Andrew Levin, and Sunghyun Henry Kim
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: In this paper, we investigate the welfare implications of alternative financial market structures in a two-country endowment economy model. In particular, we obtain an analytic expression for the expected lifetime utility of the representative household when sovereign bonds are the only internationally traded asset, and we compare this welfare level with that obtained under complete asset markets. The welfare cost of incomplete markets is negligible if agents are very patient and shocks are not very persistent, but this cost is dramatically larger if agents are relatively impatient and shocks are highly persistent. For realistic cases in which agents are very patient and shocks are highly persistent (that is, the discount factor and the first-order autocorrelation are both near unity), the welfare cost of incomplete markets is highly sensitive to the specific values of these parameters. Finally, using a non-linear solution algorithm, we confirm that a two-country production economy with endogenous labor supply has qualitatively similar welfare properties.
Topic:: Economics, Human Welfare, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

2740. North Korea's Engagement—Perspectives, Outlook, and Implications

Author:: Mitchell B. Reiss
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: The National Intelligence Council (NIC) held a conference on 23 February 2001 in cooperation with the Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress on "North Korea's Engagement—Perspectives, Outlook and Implications." The conference featured discussion of seven commissioned papers that are published in this report. Sixty government and nongovernment specialists participated in the conference. Following is a brief summary of the views of the specialists.
Topic:: International Relations and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States, Asia, and North Korea

2741. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Options for Acquisition of the Advanced Targeting Pod and Advanced Targeting FLIR Pod

Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: The Under Secretary of Defense (AT) requested that the DSB form a brief study of ongoing Navy and Air Force programs aimed at developing advanced laser guided weapon targeting pods for their tactical aircraft. This request for a DSB Task Force was occasioned by Congressional interest in the possibilities of a Joint development and production program for these pods.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Development, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

2742. Protecting the Homeland: Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Defensive Information Operations 2000 Summer Study Volume I

Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: The task forces see a spectrum of threats to the homeland emerging. The 2000 summer study begins a series of studies byt he Defense Science Board aimed at assisting the Department of Defense and the Intelligence Community in defining their roles in protecting the nation from unconventional attacks on the United States. Other studies now planned as part of this series of studies include Defense Against Chemical Warfare Attack: Countering the Strategic Nuclear Threat in the 21st century; a follow-up study on Intelligence on Threats to the Homeland; and a second study on the issues associated with Defense Against Biological Warfare Attack. The focus of all these DSB studies is on identifying the technology and operational capability needed to protect the homeland. It is not on the assignment of roles and missions for employing said capabilities. Significant recommendations are made in these reports including suggestions for implementation.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Development, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

2743. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Improving Fuel Efficiency of Weapons Platforms

Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: The Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition, Technology and Logistics), recognizing the crucial importance of weapons platform fuel usage to U.S. military capability, requested that the Defense Science Board form a task force on Improving Fuel Efficiency of Weapons Platforms. Asked to consider existing or emerging technologies that could significantly improve platform efficiency, the task force also examined institutional barriers that exist and must be overcome to understand and capture the full advantages of more efficient military systems.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

2744. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Training Superiority Training Surprise

Author:: Ralph Chatham and Joe Braddock
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: In late 1998 the Undersecretary of Defense (Personnel Readiness), the Director, Defense Research and Engineering, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff requested the Defense Science Board to create a task force on training and education. Drs. Joe Braddock and Ralph Chatham were appointed co-chairmen. The task force met periodically throughout 1999 and early 2000. This document is the report of our deliberations.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Development, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

2745. Commentaries: The U.S. National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2015: Excerpts, Commentaries, And Response

Author:: Ellen Laipson, Michael A. Ledeen, Michael J. White, John Gannon, Eugene J. Carroll, Richard P. Cincotta, Johanna Mendelson Forman, Michael Hanssler, Liliana Hisas, Leslie Johnston, Gavin Kitchingham, Gayl D. Ness, David Rejeski, Ervin J. Rokke, Judith Shapiro, Aleksei V. Yablokov, and Arno Weinmann
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Wilson Center
Abstract:: In January 2001, the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), a center within the Central Intelligence Agency that provides the agency's director with mid- and long-term strategic thinking and direction, published Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future with Nongovernmental Experts. This unclassified and public report, which expanded on the NIC's previous effort Global Trends 2010, takes a look at the world over the next 15 years from the perspective of the national security policymaker.
Topic:: Security, Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

2746. Linkage and Legalism in Institutions: Evidence From Agricultural Trade Negotiations

Author:: Christina Davis
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: In a comparative study of Japanese and European trade policy, this paper explains how the institutional context of negotiations affects political outcomes. I examine two pathways by which negotiation structure promotes liberalization: issue linkage and legal framing. Broadening stakes through issue linkage mobilizes domestic lobbying for liberalization. Use of GATT/WTO trade law in dispute settlement legitimizes arguments favoring liberalization. This study on international institutions addresses the theoretical debates in the field regarding how interdependence and the legalization of international affairs change the nature of state interaction.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, Europe, and Israel

2747. Asian Perspectives on the Challenges of China

Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) held its annual Pacific symposium on “Asian Perspectives on the Challenges of China” at the National Defense University in Washington on March 7 and 8, 2000. This event brought together representatives of the policy community and academe from Australia, the People's Republic of China, India, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand, and the United States. It focused on how perceptions of China influence defense and foreign policies in key nations of the Asia- Pacific region, how the likely course of developments in China might affect the future policies of countries in the region, and how such changes might impact on their security relations with the United States.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and International Law
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, India, Korea, Singapore, and Thailand

2748. Adversary Use of NBC Weapons: A Neglected Challenge

Author:: John F. Reichart
Publication Date:: 12-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Despite years of research, the community's knowledge of how an adversary might use nuclear (and radiological), biological, and chemical (NBC) weapons remains restricted in important ways. The historical data that inform this area are rather limited and largely dated. We do not have much in the way of adversary planning documents or doctrine to study, and nations acquiring NBC weapons do not usually address employment concepts. Despite these gaps, we do know that NBC weapons afford potential adversaries cost-effective force multipliers and that a number of states of concern are actively pursuing their development.
Topic:: Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: United States

2749. U.S.-Saudi Relations: Rebuilding the Strategic Consensus

Author:: Joseph McMillan
Publication Date:: 11-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The preponderance of Saudi citizens among the September 11 terrorists and President George Bush's ensuing announcement of a war against global terrorism have again placed the spotlight on the U.S. relationship with Saudi Arabia. Even before September 11, U.S.-Saudi relations were approaching a crossroads. Despite long odds, America forged a successful military and political coalition with the Saudis during the Gulf war, but over the last several years bilateral ties have been seriously strained. Both sides have been inclined—and for the most part able—to keep these strains hidden from public view, but in the process the United States seems to have lost sight of the unique problems the Saudis face in working with America.
Topic:: Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

2750. China: Making the Case for Realistic Engagement

Author:: Michael E. Marti
Publication Date:: 09-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Chinese aspirations to become a great power in the 21st century have numerous regional implications. Beijing claims to seek a peaceful international climate so as to concentrate on domestic development. Yet under the rubric of a New Security Concept (NSC), China also is pursuing a long-term strategy to alter radically regional power relationships that have contributed to prosperity and relative stability in East Asia over the past 50 years.
Topic:: Defense Policy
Political Geography:: United States, China, Beijing, and East Asia

2751. Regional Conflicts with Strategic Consequences

Author:: M. Elaine Bunn, Richard D. Sokolsky, and David E. Mosher
Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The strategic environment facing the United States has changed radically in the past decade. The United States needs to reexamine traditional ways of planning for the use of military force in conflicts that threaten vital interests and that could escalate to the highest levels of violence. Several characteristics define the new environment: Changed relationships between the major powers. The bipolar world of the Cold War has yielded to U.S. preeminence in virtually every facet of power, while Russia has become a second-tier power. China now has the seventh largest economy in the world and is modernizing both its conventional and nuclear forces—though it is unlikely to replace the former Soviet Union as the second pole in a reconfigured bipolar world. The rise of regional powers, such as Iraq and Iran. These aspiring regional hegemons are unhappy with a status quo that is preserved by American military power. The end of bipolarity has brought this antagonism to the fore. During the Cold War, regional conflicts played out within the context of the broader ideological and strategic conflict between the two superpowers, which also tamped down pressures for escalation and proliferation for fear that conflict would spiral out of control. That all ended with the Cold War. The collapse of the Soviet empire made it impossible for Russia to continue supporting its allies abroad, who were forced to become responsible for their own security. The possibility that smaller rogue states might try to keep the United States out of a regional conflict. By credibly threatening that the fight could escalate and even involve homeland attacks on the United States or its partners, a regional pariah might hope to prevent the United States from committing forces to the conflict or hinder it from building coalitions with European and regional allies. Failing that, a regional adversary could seek to delay and disrupt U.S. deployments to the theater and hamper operations. Finally, the leadership of a rogue state may be able to preserve its regime even in defeat if it could strike the American homeland or American allies. In short, regional powers are developing the capability to conduct strategic warfare against the United States. The importance these countries place on asymmetric warfare probably has been encouraged by the American distaste for wartime casualties and worries about self-deterrence.
Topic:: Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, and China

2752. A Golden Opportunity: The Next Steps in U.S.-Indian Relations

Author:: John C. Holzman
Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The Bush administration promotes broader security relations with India as a priority yet maintains wide-ranging sanctions against this giant of the subcontinent to punish it for its 1998 nuclear tests. The administration inherited policies that restrict high technology and military exports to India, mandate that the United States vote against some development loans to India from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, and limit cooperation with the Indian military establishment. The administration is in the process of lifting restrictions on high-level military contacts and is consulting with New Delhi on its plans for missile defense, a concept that India has applauded.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Central Asia, India, and New Delhi

2753. A Military for the 21st Century: Lessons from the Recent Past

Author:: Anthony C. Zinni
Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, more than any other event, marked the collapse of the Soviet Union. I remember crossing through a vacant Checkpoint Charlie into East Berlin. No one on either side knew quite what we could or could not do, since it all happened so fast. The confusion and stark contrast between East and West Berlin made it hard to believe that we had once feared this collapsed Warsaw Pact or seen it as a serious global competitor. The West always contended that communism was a fundamentally flawed system that would eventually fail. Despite that belief, we were caught by surprise by the sudden and total end of the Soviet empire and the system that governed half the world. At the time, our President proudly drew what appeared to be the logical conclusion from these events: that there was to be a new world order. Others talked of reaping a peace dividend, since defense spending surely could be reduced.
Topic:: Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: United States and Berlin

2754. Normalizing U.S.-Russian Relations

Author:: Eugene B. Rumer and Richard D. Sokolsky
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Ten years after the end of the Cold War, mutual hopes that a comprehensive partnership would replace containment as the major organizing theme in U.S.-Russian relations have not been realized. The record of the 1990s has left both Russia and the United States unsatisfied. Russia looks back at the decade with bitterness and a feeling of being marginalized and slighted by the world's sole remaining superpower. It is also disappointed by its experience with Western-style reforms and mistrustful of American intentions. The United States is equally disappointed with Russia's lack of focus, inability to engage effectively abroad, and failure to implement major reforms at home. A comprehensive partnership is out of the question. Renewed competition or active containment are also not credible as organizing principles. Russia's economic, military and political/ideological weakness makes it an unlikely target of either U.S. competition or containment. Not only is Russia no longer a superpower, but its status as a regional power is in doubt.
Topic:: Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Russia and United States

2755. Revising the Two-Major Theater War Standard

Author:: Hans Binnendijk and Richard L. Kugler
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: One of the toughest challenges facing the Department of Defense (DOD) is translating strategic policy into concrete guidelines for preparing U.S. military forces. A defense planning standard is a set of judgments and directives for performing this key function. Normally this standard has three associated roles: to determine the size of forces and their main missions; to establish program and budgetary priorities; and to inform the Congress and the public of the rationale behind the defense strategy and force posture. For example, the Kennedy administration standard was a two and one-half war strategy, and the Nixon administration had a one and one-half war strategy. To guide its planning, the Carter administration used the standard of multitheater war with the Soviet Union in Europe and the Persian Gulf. The Reagan administration applied an Illustrative Planning Scenario that contemplated global war with the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact
Topic:: Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

2756. Renovating U.S. Strategic Arms Control Policy

Author:: Richard D. Sokolsky
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: There has been a tectonic shift in the strategic landscape since the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) negotiations concluded in the early 1990s. The Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact are defunct. America and Russia are no longer enemies and the nuclear arms race between the two countries is, for all intents and purposes, over. The threat of a surprise nuclear attack has all but vanished along with any plausible scenario between the two countries that could escalate to a nuclear war. The strategic warning time for reconstitution of a credible conventional military threat to Europe can now be measured in years. The likelihood that Russia could marshal the economic resources for clandestine production of new nuclear weapon systems on a militarily significant scale is extremely remote. The most serious security threats emanating from Russia today—poorly safeguarded nuclear warheads and materials and the potential proliferation of such material and expertise to states of concern—reflect profound weakness. Simply put, the proliferation risks attendant to a Russia in the throes of a long-term structural crisis are a far more serious security threat than SS–18 heavy missiles destroying U.S. intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in a preemptive first strike.
Topic:: Defense Policy and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, and Europe

2757. The U.S. Strategic Posture Review: Issues for the New Administration

Author:: M. Elaine Bunn and Richard D. Sokolsky
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Before the next administration decides on a strategic force posture, national missile defense (NMD) architecture, and arms control objectives for both offensive and defensive forces, it needs to grapple with questions of strategy and doctrine. Any consideration of alternative defense strategies and their implications for nuclear forces and missile defenses should start with a basic set of questions: For what purposes will we need nuclear weapons and missile defenses in the future and under what conditions would these missions be carried out? What countries will pose strategic threats to vital U.S. national interests over the next 10–20 years? What hostile actions are we trying to deter, and what are the proper character, size, and mix of nuclear weapons and defenses in deterring these threats?
Topic:: Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: United States

2758. The Strategic Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

Author:: Judith S. Yaphe and Kori N. Schake
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Scholars and other spcialists on Iran have argued about that country's political intentions and strategic amibitions since the overthrow of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi and the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979. In the 1980s Iran's efforts to export its revolution and support international terrorism raised the question of whether a moderate Islamic republic that was able to deal with the West could ever exist. The death of the Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989 and the succession of Ali Hashimi-Rafsanjani as president raised new issues for the 1990s. As the European and American oil and investment communities considered the race to open Iran commercially, scholars and diplomats debated Iranian efforts to recover from nearly a decade of war and revolution. They compared the merits of the European approach of initiating critical dialogue with the U.S. policy of containing and isolating Iran. Neither approach seemed to have much impact, both conceded, and Iranians continued to sort out their domestic political agenda and to decide how best to protect their strategic and national interests. The U.S. Government, for example, tried to estimate how much time and money Iran would need to modernize its military and to acquire new weapons systems despite projected low oil prices and the country's need to rebuild its damaged and neglected civilian and industrial infrastructure.1 The assumption underlying the U.S. projections was that Iran would be pursuing weapons of mass destruction, especially nuclear technology and longrange missile systems.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

2759. Youth as Social and Political Agents: Issues in Post-Settlement Peace Building

Author:: Siobhán McEvoy-Levy
Publication Date:: 12-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:: There is a growing body of literature dealing with the roles of children and young people in armed conflict and the effects of such conflict on their development (Brett McCallin, 1996; Cohn Goodwin-Gill, 1994; Klare, 1999; Machel, 1996; Wessells, 1998). This literature based on extensive field case work has provided important evidence of intensive child and youth involvement in warfare, the reasons for that involvement, the processes of induction into armed groups, the activities of children in these groups - as fighters, cooks, spies, couriers, and in providing sexual services - and their immediate - term rehabilitation needs once a war has been ended. Many of these studies make recommendations about demobilization, reintegration and prevention with an emphasis on economic, social, and psychological measures and the effective implementation of relevant international law. Although much has been discovered and is actively utilized in the domain of advocacy, most studies recognize that much more needs to be done to develop research and good practice particularly in the area of healing war - torn societies across a range of social, psychological, economic and security interests and needs and using indigenous beliefs and rituals as peace building resources (Wessells 2000).
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arabia

2760. Caribbean Tourism: Igniting the Engines of Sustainable Growth

Author:: Anthony T. Bryan
Publication Date:: 11-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: Tourism drives economic growth in ways that make it one of the best engines for job creation and development for poor countries that possess natural beauty and relevant infrastructure. The industry is highly labor intensive and encourages entrepreneurship. Under its ambit, property owners, restaurants, and local suppliers of goods and services, among others, develop the habits of risk taking without which no economy can realize its full potential. Tourism holds out the prospect of a better life for those stakeholders who make money from it. Not unlike trade, it improves an economy's competitiveness. Trade does so because it stimulates local suppliers to match the quality and variety of imported goods. Tourism does so because returning travelers to a destination demand the goods and services they have seen in other countries (Elliott 2001).
Topic:: Development, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Latin America, and Caribbean

2761. Protest and Collaboration: Transnational Civil Society Networks and the Politics of Summitry and Free Trade in the Americas

Author:: Patricio Korzeniewicz and William C. Smith
Publication Date:: 09-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: This paper examines the politics of hemispheric integration exemplified by the Summits of the Americas held in Miami (1994), Santiago (1998), and Quebec (2001) and the negotiations over the creation of a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). Our basic premise is that political and institutional arrangements articulating state, society, and economy in Latin America are currently in the midst of a process of reconfiguration unleashed by the acceleration of globalization and attendant crises of state-centered development strategies. More specifically, we believe the Americas are witnessing the emergence of an ensemble of new social and political actors, among the most salient of which are new social movements and civil society organizations (CSOs), organized in networks operating at the domestic, regional, and global levels.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States, America, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, North America, and Miami

2762. The Impact of MERCOSUR on the Automobile Industry

Author:: Jerry Haar and Thomas A. O'Keefe
Publication Date:: 09-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: A transformation of the automotive industry, particularly the segment involved in production of finished vehicles, has taken place in the Southern Common Market (Mercado Común del Sur/Mercado Comum do Sul—MERCOSUR/MER-COSUL) region of South America, at a time when MERCOSUR member states opened their economies to global competition and to participation in an ambitious subregional economic integration project. This Agenda Paper provides an overview of the factors that have contributed to this recent industry transformation. The paper also examines the factors involved in the formal incorporation of the automotive sector into the MERCOSUR project and discusses the impact this development is like-ly have on the subregional automobile industry,
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States, South America, Latin America, and North America

2763. Preferential Treatment in Trade: Is There Any Room Left in the Americas?

Author:: Fernando Masi
Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: This paper evaluates the costs and benefits of changes brought by the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) on special and differential treatment (S); shows how these changes affected the new regional integration processes in the American continent; and examines whether this issue is still a priority of developing countries' agendas. Large concessions offered by developing countries in exchange for access to markets automatically led to “trade graduation.” Thus, S has lost its former significance among developing countries. Moreover, nonreciprocal treatment was retained for least developed countries, which do not even enjoy this type of treatment under the so-called “new trade-related issues” of services, investment, and intellectual property rights.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States, America, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America

2764. Geography, Markets, Resources, and Development: The Assets of the Americas Revisited

Author:: L. Ronald Scheman
Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: In May 1996, the price of copper crashed from US$2,600 to $1,775 per ton. The Sumitomo Corporation of Japan acknowledged unprecedented losses of $2.6 billion from unauthorized trading by its chief copper trader, one of the faceless manipulators of the international commodities markets, Yasuo Hamanaka. Among the major banks caught in this modern variation of the Ponzi scheme were J.P. Morgan and the London Metal Exchange. Chile, whose economy was highly dependent on income from the commodity, was quickly and painfully reminded that the highly leveraged markets on which it depended, even in the hands of the most reputable institutions, are fragile and subject to unexpected forces beyond its control. Copper prices began a downward spiral, and they have not yet recovered.
Topic:: Development, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, America, and Caribbean

2765. Immigration and Integration in the Americas

Author:: Max J. Castro
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: Shortly after he was elected president of Mexico in 2000, Vicente Fox made the United States and Canada a bold proposal: Why not begin a long-range process that would lead to expanding the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) into a full-fledged North American Common Market, featuring open borders for the free movement of people as well as goods? And, in the short run, would the United States agree to a significant increase in legal immigration in exchange for Mexico's pledge to crack down on undocumented immigration?.
Topic:: Human Rights and Migration
Political Geography:: United States, America, Canada, and North America

2766. Free Trade and Worker Displacement: The Trade Adjustment Assistance Act and the Case of NAFTA

Author:: Jerry Haar and Antonio Garrastazu
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: Trade liberalization, a fundamental feature of U.S. economic policy since the end of the Second World War, has increasingly become a contentious domestic political issue during the last decade. Proponents and opponents of free trade transcend political party affiliation, industry, occupation, geographical locale, income level, age, and other socioeconomic and demographic factors. In addition, the U.S. public and its leaders for the most part hold qualified, mixed, or inconsistent opinions about trade liberalization and the larger and rapidly increasing phenomenon known as globalization. In a February 9-14, 2000, nationwide poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates, a majority of respondents (64 percent compared to 27 percent) stated that free trade with other countries is good for the United States. On the other hand, an NBC News/ W all Street Journal poll several months later asked interviewees to respond to the following statement: “Foreign trade has been bad for the U.S. economy because cheap imports from abroad have hurt wages and cost jobs here at home.” Forty-eight percent of the respondents answered that it has been “bad” and 34 percent “good.”
Topic:: Industrial Policy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Latin America

2767. The Problems of Preparedness: Challenges Facing the U.S. Domestic Preparedness Program

Author:: Richard A. Falkenrath
Publication Date:: 12-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The U.S. government is now actively engaged in preparing the nation for highly destructive acts of terrorism, especially those involving chemical and biological weapons. This effort involves multiple federal agencies and a wide variety of programs. Collectively known as the “U.S. domestic preparedness program,” these programs are a very recent innovation in American governance. The budget of federal weapons of mass destruction (WMD) preparedness programs has grown from effectively zero in 1995 to approximately $1.5 billion in fiscal year 2000. 1 This made the U.S. domestic preparedness program one of the fastest growing federal programs of the late 1990s.
Topic:: Environment and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States

2768. Analytic Models and Policy Prescription: Understanding Recent Innovation in U.S. Counterterrorism

Author:: Richard A. Falkenrath
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The threat of terrorism has received enormous attention in the last decade. Anxieties ran particularly high at the turn of the millennium, which fortunately passed without a major terrorist incident. Virtually all states expend some resources to combat terrorism. The policies, programs, and operations that governments undertake to meet this challenge are known collectively as counterterrorism. Although this term is only a few decades old, the practice of counterterrorism is as old as terrorism itself. Like terrorism, counterterrorism is easily recognized, even if its boundaries are somewhat imprecise.
Topic:: Environment and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States

2769. Responding to the Threat of Agroterrorism: Specific Recommendations for the United States Department of Agriculture

Author:: Anne Kohnen
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The threat of biological weapons (BW) is usually associated with terrible outbreaks of human illness. Receiving substantially less attention from the media, however, is the fact that BW can also be used against agricultural targets as strategic economic weapons. Agriculture accounts for about 13 percent of the United States' annual gross domestic product. 1996 U.S. cash receipts for livestock, poultry, and crops totaled more than $200 billion. An attack on agriculture could have enormous economic consequences.
Topic:: Environment and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States

2770. Intervention in Internal Conflicts: Legal and Political Conundrums

Author:: Chantal de Jonge Oudaraat
Publication Date:: 08-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: THE KOSOVO CRISIS in 1999 and the Sierra Leone hostage debacle in 2000 have reignited a recurring debate in international policy circles over humanitarian intervention. This debate focuses on the legal, political, and operational conundrums of coercive actions for humanitarian purposes. I believe that this debate over intervention will only intensify in the future. Indeed, internal conflicts, even if their numbers go down, are hard to ignore in a globalizing world.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States

2771. The Next Wave: Urgently Needed New Steps to Control Warheads and Fissile Material

Author:: Matthew Bunn
Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Nothing could be more central to U.S. and world security than ensuring that nuclear warheads and their essential ingredients—plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU)—do not fall into the hands of terrorists or proliferating states. If plutonium and HEU become regularly available on a nuclear black market, nothing else we do to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons will succeed. Similarly, unless stockpiles of nuclear warheads and fissile materials can be secured, monitored, and verifiably reduced, it will be impossible to achieve deep, transparent, and irreversible reductions in nuclear arms. Measures to control warheads and fissile materials, therefore, are central to the entire global effort to reduce nuclear arms and stem their spread. The tens of thousands of nuclear weapons and hundreds of tons of plutonium and HEU that remain in the U.S. and Russian nuclear stockpiles represent a deadly legacy of the Cold War, and managing them securely must be a top U.S. security policy priority.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

2772. Democracy Assistance and NGO Strategies in Post-Communist Societies

Author:: Sarah E. Mendelson and John K. Glenn
Publication Date:: 02-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Since the end of the Cold War, Eastern Europe and Eurasia have been host to a virtual army of Western non-governmental organizations (NGOs)-from the United States, Britain, Germany, and elsewhere in Europe-all working on various aspects of institutional development, such as helping to establish competitive political parties and elections, independent media, and civic advocacy groups, as well as trying to reduce ethnic conflict. Little is known-although much good and bad is believed-about the impact of this assistance, carried out on a transnational level in cooperation with local political and social activists. This study, based at Columbia University, was designed to address this gap.
Topic:: Democratization, Government, International Organization, and Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Asia

2773. Naturalization in the Wake of Anti-Immigrant Legislation: Dominicans in New York City

Author:: Audrey Singer and Greta Gilbertson
Publication Date:: 02-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The motives of immigrants who seek to naturalize in the United States are a source of current controversy. Recent events, such as the passage in 1996 of anti-immigrant laws, appear to have increased the benefits of becoming a U.S. citizen and the costs of remaining a legal permanent resident. Critics of recent policies have argued that the laws pushed immigrants to naturalize in order to retain social welfare benefits, thus cheapening the value of U.S. citizenship. Most of the debate on this issue, however, is based on rhetoric rather than observation. The extant literature provides little insight into how these recent developments influence immigrants' propensity to naturalize through shaping their perceptions of citizenship. How immigrants understand and view the costs and benefits of U.S. citizenship are important, because they are likely to be the most proximate determinants of naturalization decisions (Alvarez 1987; Yang 1994).
Topic:: Government and Migration
Political Geography:: United States and New York

2774. Racial and Ethnic Disparities: Key Findings from the National Survey of America's Families

Author:: Sarah Staveteig and Alyssa Wigton
Publication Date:: 02-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Urban Institute
Abstract:: More than 30 years after the passage of civil rights legislation, significant economic and social inequalities persist amongst racial and ethnic groups in the United States. Analysis of well-being by race and ethnicity using data from the 1997 National Survey of America's Families (NSAF) confirms that disparities exist both within and across all racial and ethnic groups. Even at higher incomes, whites and Asians repeatedly fare better than blacks, Hispanics, and Native Americans.
Topic:: Human Welfare, Migration, and Poverty
Political Geography:: United States

2775. Consumer-Directed Home and Community Services Programs in Five Countries: Policy Issues for Older People and Government

Author:: Alison Evans Cuellar, Jane Tilly, and Joshua M. Wiener
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Urban Institute
Abstract:: A major innovation in long-term care for elderly persons in the United States and Europe is the development of consumer-directed home care. These governmental programs give consumers, rather than home care agencies, control over who provides services and how these services are delivered. Typically, consumer-directed programs allow the consumer to hire, train, supervise, and fire the home care worker. In some programs, beneficiaries receive cash payments enabling them to purchase the services they want. In contrast, traditional home care programs rely on public or private agencies to supply and supervise the workers who serve program beneficiaries.
Topic:: Economics, Human Welfare, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, France, Germany, Netherlands, and Austria

2776. Illegal Aliens in Federal, State, and Local Criminal Justice Systems

Author:: Rebecca Clark and Scott Anderson
Publication Date:: 06-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Urban Institute
Abstract:: With the rising concern about the numbers and impacts of illegal aliens in the United States — as evidenced by the sweeping passage of Proposition 187 in California, the immigrant provisions in 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA), and Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996 (IIRIRA) — criminal illegal aliens have become a subject of particular focus. These individuals have not only entered or resided in the United States without the knowledge or permission of the U.S. government, but, while here, they have also violated the laws of the nation, its states, or municipalities.
Topic:: Government, International Law, and Migration
Political Geography:: United States

2777. Wage Coordination and the Welfare State: Germany and Japan Compared

Author:: Philip Manow
Publication Date:: 12-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: Is there a relation between welfare state regimes and national wage setting systems? Peter Swenson in his research on the historical dynamics of the US-American and Swedish welfare state has recently claimed that such a relation does indeed exist. The essay aims to check if this also holds true for the German and Japanese case. In the post-war period both countries have established systems of wage-bargaining that are less centralized than the Swedish system, but in which wages are highly coordinated both within and across sectors, and, subsequently, in which wage compression is relatively high as well. Thus, both countries are confronted with the same problems of wage- and welfare-drift and of firms' exit from the 'solidaristic' or coordinated wage setting that are so typical for Sweden. At the same time the German and Japanese welfare state differ from each other in almost all dimensions. Thus, both cases seem to be ideally suited to provide for a plausibility-check of the Swenson hypothesis. The essay reaches the conclusion that there is indeed ample evidence that both the German and the Japanese welfare state contributed critically to the stability of wage coordination in the era of high growth after World War II. They thus have to be understood as an integral part of the German and Japanese post-war growth model.
Topic:: Economics, Human Welfare, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, America, and Germany

2778. The Coming Apathy: Africa Policy Under a Bush Administration

Author:: Salih Booker
Publication Date:: 12-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:: "There's got to be priorities," George W. Bush responded when asked about Africa in the second presidential campaign debate. Africa did not make his short list: the Middle East, Europe, the Far East, and the Americas. A Bush presidency portends a return to the blatantly anti-African policies of the Reagan-Bush years, characterized by a general disregard for black people and a perception of Africa as a social welfare case. Vice President Dick Cheney is widely expected to steer the younger Bush on most policy matters especially foreign affairs. Cheney's perspective on Africa in the 1980s was epitomized by his 1986 vote in favor of keeping Nelson Mandela in prison and his consistent opposition to sanctions against apartheid South Africa.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, and South Africa

2779. Turning Points in the Korean Space-Economy: From the Developmental State to Intercity Competition, 1953-2000

Author:: Mike Douglass
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Territorial development processes and patterns in Korea from the 1950s have encountered four turning points. The first involved the reconstitution of the Korean nation state, which, following radical land reform, implicitly focused on the expansion of the Seoul Capital Region. The second came with the launching of strategies for export-oriented urbanindustrial growth in the early 1960s, which led to the development, in the 1970s, of an urban-industrial corridor moving from the rapidly expanding metropolis of Seoul to the southeast coast, centered on Pusan and heavy industrial complexes. The third turning point was brought about by rising wages and labor costs; the ascending value of the Korean currency; and the overseas relocation of labor-intensive industries, which saw a repolarization of growth in Seoul and a deindustrialization of other metropolitan economies. While some regions outside of Seoul began to register high rates of economic growth around automotive and electronics industries in the early 1990s, this pattern was abruptly challenged at the fourth turning point, the 1997 financial crisis in East and Southeast Asia. Recovery from the crisis is being pursued under a fundamentally new political and economic strategy of decentralized policymaking. The major territorial development question facing Korea at this turning point is whether localities can create capacities to rebuild and sustain their economies through direct engagement in a turbulent world economy.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Asia, Korea, and Southeast Asia

2780. Political Change in Taiwan: Implications for American Policy An address by RICHARD BUSH and Roundtable Discussion on Taiwan's Historic 2000 Elections

Author:: Katsuhiro Nakagawa
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Richard Bush is chairman of the board and managing director of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), a private organization that conducts unofficial relations with the island of Taiwan on behalf of the United States government. Established in April 1979, AIT has a small headquarters in Washington, D.C., and offices in Taipei and Kaohsiung. Dr. Bush was appointed to the AIT Board by Secretary of State Madeleine Albright on September 2, 1997, and was selected as chairman and managing director on the same day.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, America, Washington, and Asia

2781. Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta: "One Country, Two Systems" in the Emerging Metropolitan Context

Author:: Thomas P. Rohlen
Publication Date:: 07-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Now, more than at any point since 1949, Hong Kong's economic future is tied to that of China. This commonplace observation must be coupled with the less obvious, but equally fundamental point that Hong Kong's future with China is based largely on activities that arise in or pass through the Pearl River Delta. This region, however, is cut in half by a sovereign border and governed by a patchwork of political authorities. The Delta as a whole is rich with opportunities, but it is increasingly apparent that these can be realized only if integration moves forward, both in a metropolitan and regional sense. This prospect is currently marked by serious uncertainties.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, China, Asia, and Hong Kong

2782. The Japanese Network State in U.S. Comparison: Does Embeddedness Yield Resources and Influence?

Author:: Jeffrey Broadbent
Publication Date:: 07-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Scholars describe the East Asian—Japanese and South Korean—state as a network state that guides the private sector by means of embedded relationships (i.e., informal persuasive ties). In theoretical terms, these embedded ties represent informally institutionalized social capital. This study refines the network state thesis by comparing embedded ties with tangible resource exchanges in their effects upon political influence among political (organizational) actors in Japanese and U.S. labor politics. The network state thesis predicts that in Japan embedded ties should channel the flow of tangible resources (e.g., vital information, political support), and that embedded third party brokers should mediate this flow. Embedded ties have generally pervaded the Japanese polity, whereas in the United States, they have remained concentrated within the labor sector. In Japan, the embedded ties form a “bow tie” pattern: the Ministry of Labor (MOL) bridges a structural hole between corporatistic business and labor. The presence of embedded third parties predicts the dyadic exchange of information. Political support, by contrast, forms a distinct, nonembedded network, centered on political parties. Tensions between the embedded network and the instrumental political support network help explain characteristics of Japanese politics, such as the relative slowness of its response to financial crisis.
Topic:: Industrial Policy and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, Israel, East Asia, and South Korea

2783. Relating the U.S.-Korea and U.S.-Japan Alliances to Emerging Asia Pacific Multilateral Processes: An ASEAN Perspective

Author:: Chin Kin Wah and Pang Eng Fong
Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: American military power underpinned the security structure of the Asia Pacific region during the Cold War. Post-Cold War, its role is still vital to peace and stability in the region. The most overt manifestations of American military might are the Japan–America Security Alliance (JASA) and the Korea–America Security Alliance (KASA). These bilateral alliances, together with a modified Australia–New Zealand–United States (ANZUS) treaty relationship, point to the diversity of security interests and perspectives in the region. Even during the height of the Cold War, the region never quite presented the kind of coherence that would have facilitated the creation of a truly multilateral defense framework of the sort exemplified by NATO. In Southeast Asia, the lack of strategic coherence resulted in a patchwork of defense arrangements between local and extraregional states. Dominated by the United States, the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) was only nominally regional.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, America, Asia, Korea, Southeast Asia, and New Zealand

2784. The United States and the Republic of China, 1949-1978: Suspicious Allies

Author:: Steven M. Goldstein
Publication Date:: 02-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: This paper discusses the relationship between the United States and the Republic of China (ROC) from 1949 to 1979. This was an association that began and ended with an American determination to distance itself from the government on Taiwan, in the interests of improved relations with the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland. In the intervening years, the United States and the ROC were aligned in a relationship—formalized by a mutual defense treaty from 1955 to 1979—which weathered two (almost three) military confrontations with the PRC.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, China, America, and Asia

2785. The Domestic Context of the Alliances: The Politics of Tokyo

Author:: Akihiko Tanaka
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: It is now almost a cliché to say that domestic politics and foreign policy are closely connected. Yet however trite this expression, nonetheless it is true. Japan's international behavior and particularly its security policy cannot be fully understood without analyzing its domestic politics. In post–World War II Japan, security policy has been the dominant theme of domestic politics and source of ideological divide.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, Asia, and Tokyo

2786. Market, Technology, and Policy Drivers: The Future Structure of the Electricity Industry

Author:: Elizabeth Malone
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: The electricity industry is being challenged on the one hand by restructuring and on the other by the potential of new technologies. Restructuring is proceeding slowly and unevenly, with uncertain national leadership, disputes over the jurisdiction of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), continuing and increasing environmental concerns, and a plethora of state policies and regulations.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

2787. Changing Rules In the Market for Attention: New Strategies for Minority Programming

Author:: Richard P. Adler
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: In July 1999, a controversy erupted that focused public attention on the issue of the representation of blacks and other minorities in the media. It began when Kweisi Mfume, president of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP), expressed dismay that only one of the twenty-six new prime time television programs planned by the four major broadcast networks for the upcoming fall season included a black actor in a leading role. Shortly thereafter, representatives of several other minority groups, including Hispanics and Asians, claimed that their members were also underrepresented in network programming. The controversy generated a good deal of discussion about how television programs are developed and cast. Eventually, the NAACP and the four networks reached agreements that identified a variety of steps the networks would take to increase minority participation in network programming.
Topic:: Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

2788. Campaigns in Cyberspace: Toward A New Regulatory Approach

Author:: Anthony Corrado
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: The explosive growth of the Internet as a medium for political activity is transforming our conceptions of political communication and the methods by which campaigns for public office are conducted. This rapidly evolving technology has already made possible an unprecedented flow of information and new modes of citizen participation in the electoral process. The Internet has provided candidates with a means of communicating directly with voters without the inter-mediation or interpretation of the news media. Candidates now use web sites to offer voters texts of public statements and detailed information on their policy positions, as well as audio and video materials. These sites allow individuals to “customize” information so that they may access materials that are relevant to their particular concerns or interests. Similarly, these sites allow candidates to provide individuals with updated information as it becomes available, facilitating a type of interaction between campaigns and individual voters that was not possible before the advent of digital communications.
Topic:: Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

2789. Coming Together -- Bridging the Gap between Investors and Minority Internet Entrepreneurs

Author:: Robert M. Entman
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: A group of about two dozen entrepreneurs, venture capitalists, researchers, and nonprofit community development leaders met on April 7-8, 2000, at the Aspen Institute Wye River Conference Center in Queenstown, Maryland, to discuss “Coming Together: Bridging the Gap between Investors and Minority Internet Entrepreneurs.” The group identified a series of problems that impede minorities' success in raising sufficient capital to launch and maintain entrepreneurial enterprises in the Internet market, and brainstormed creatively about resources, institutions, and processes to improve the situation.
Topic:: Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States and Maryland

2790. Ecologies of Innovation: The Role of Information and Communications Technologies

Author:: David Bollier
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: It has become a truism in recent years that technological innovation lies at the core of a robust economy. Once an arcane matter for economists, innovation has moved from the back salons of corporate strategy to the grand ballroom of mainstream culture. Fueled by the World Wide Web and other electronic technologies, unknown entrepreneurs with big ideas have joined with investment bankers, multinational corporations, and Main Street investors on a relentless search for The New New Thing, as the title of Michael Lewis' book on Silicon Valley calls it.
Topic:: Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

2791. Six Degrees of Competition: Correlating Regulation With the Telecommunications Marketplace

Author:: Robert M. Entman
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: The Fourteenth Annual Aspen Institute Conference on Telecommunications Policy explored the contentious issues of regulatory symmetry and asymmetry in the telecommunications industry. The core question was whether regulatory policy should be harmonized so that all similarly situated providers are treated the same way. Assuming that symmetrical treatment is desirable, exactly how should regulators approach the task?
Topic:: Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

2792. Values For the Digital Age: The Legacy of Henry Luce

Author:: Gerald M. Levin
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: It's a great honor to be this year's Catto Fellow and to be part of such impressive company. I'm grateful to Henry and Jessica Catto, whose generosity and thoughtful commitment to public dialogue have made this event possible.
Topic:: Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

2793. New World, New Realities: The Remaining Roles of Government in International Telecommunications

Author:: Rob Frieden
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: New World,New Realities Much has changed in the international telecommunications environment since 1995, when the Aspen Institute convened the first annual Aspen Institute Roundtable on International Telecommunications (AIRIT): The Internet has reached critical mass, with credible forecasts that data communications soon will predominate over voice services for the first time; Internet-mediated telephone service has begun to challenge the traditional toll revenue-sharing arrangements and pricing systems based on voice services; Regional and global market opening trade initiatives have become a reality; Strategic industrial alliances have grown in importance as carriers strive to exploit new market access opportunities; and Deregulation and market liberalization have become more widespread in developed and developing nations alike.
Topic:: Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

2794. A Financial Architecture for Middle-Class-Oriented Development

Author:: Walter Russell Mead and Sherle R. Schwenninger
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The Case For Middle-Class-Oriented Development International financial architecture works best when it serves social goals that command widespread support and legitimacy. Without neglecting the more conventional goal of allowing the greatest possible global flow of capital with the least risk of financial crisis, the primary goal of international financial reform, for both economic and political reasons, ought to be to promote middle-class-oriented development around the world.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

2795. A New Beginning: Recasting the U.S.-Japan Economic Relationship

Author:: Bruce Stokes
Publication Date:: 07-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The time is ripe for a bold new initiative to recast the U.S.-Japan economic partnership for the 21st century. A new Japan is emerging. Foreign investment is on the rise. Tokyo is deregulating and restructuring its economy. A new generation of Japanese entrepreneurs and venture capitalists has arrived on the stage.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and North Africa

2796. Economic Crisis and Corporate Reform in East Asia

Author:: Meredith Woo-Cumings
Publication Date:: 06-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The Asian financial crisis of 1997–98 involved, among other things, a failure of regulation. Some believe this failure is endemic to global capitalism, and others believe it was profoundly local and idiosyncratic, emanating from regulatory flaws in the affected countries, stretching an arc from Thailand and Indonesia to Korea and Japan. There is also a debate about the nature of the regulation that failed. Some argue that the crisis emanated from a surfeit of nettlesome regulations and endemic industrial policy; others claim it happened for want of effective regulations and (even) industrial policy. Across the hypotenuse of these disagreements, however, stretches a universal recognition that regulatory infrastructure and institutions do matter and that they must play a major role in the way we think about economic development. After the miracle years in East Asia, “good governance” has become the Spirit of the Age.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, Indonesia, Israel, East Asia, Asia, Korea, and Thailand

2797. The Paradox of Free Market Democracy: Indonesia and the Problems Facing Neoliberal Reform

Author:: Amy L. Chua
Publication Date:: 06-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: This paper will situate the recent problems in Indonesia in a more general framework that I will call the paradox of free-market democracy. The basic thesis I will advance is as follows. In Indonesia, as in many developing countries, class and ethnicity overlap in a distinctive and potentially explosive way: namely, in the form of a starkly economically dominant ethnic minority—here, the Sino-Indonesians. In such circumstances, contrary to conventional wisdom, markets and democracy may not be mutually reinforcing. On the contrary, the combined pursuit of marketization and democratization in Indonesia may catalyze ethnic tensions in highly determinate and predictable ways, with potentially very serious consequences, including the subversion of markets and democracy themselves. The principal challenge for neoliberal reform in Indonesia will be to find institutions capable of grappling with the problems of rapid democratization in the face of pervasive poverty, ethnic division, and an historically resented, market-dominant “outsider” minority.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States, Israel, and East Asia

2798. China, Nuclear Weapons, and Arms Control: A Preliminary Assessment

Author:: Robert A. Manning, Ronald Montaperto, and Brad Roberts
Publication Date:: 04-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Historically, U.S. nuclear strategists and arms control experts have paid little attention to the People's Republic of China (PRC). China has not been a major factor in the U.S. nuclear calculus, which has remained centered on U.S.-Russian nuclear arsenals as the principal framework for arms control and arms reductions. Yet today China is the only one of the five de jure nuclear weapons states qualitatively and quantitatively expanding its nuclear arsenal.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, Europe, and Asia

2799. The United States, Japan, and China: Setting the Course

Author:: Neil E. Silver
Publication Date:: 04-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The political dynamics of China-Japan relations have changed in reaction to three events: the demise of bipolar world politics, China's ''rise,'' and Japan's unexpected economic stall. These changed political dynamics have brought important challenges and consequences for the United States.
Topic:: International Relations and Security
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

2800. Humanitarian Intervention: Crafting a Workable Doctrine

Author:: Alton Frye
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: During the more than forty years of the Cold War when we faced direct military threats to our national security and other vital interests, U.S. forces were employed with great rarity and even greater caution. Ironically, in the decade following the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, we have threatened and used military force with increasing frequency in what has come to be called “armed humanitarian intervention.” Had we yielded to all of the calls for help, we would have committed our military forces even more often.
Political Geography:: United States

Search

Search Constraints

Search Results

Refine your search

Topic

Political Geography

Content Type

Publishing Institution

Author

Publication Year

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS