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2781. Russian Perception of European Security

Author:
Yuri Nazarkin
Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Historically, Russia was always threatened from three sides: from the West it was threatened and invaded at different periods of its history by Poland, Sweden, France and Germany; from the South, its traditional rival and enemy was the Ottoman empire; from the East, China and Japan. Throughout its history Russia had to be on the alert along all its borders. Though at present there are no direct military threats from any of the three directions, the current Russian security planning takes into account all the three directions. However, the problem of European security is the highest priority in Russian foreign and security policy. There are a number of reasons for this.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

2782. Recoiling from Russia

Author:
André Liebich
Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The above manifesto, entitled "A Horror is Haunting Europe," was published on the front page of one of Europe's premier newspapers in the thick of this year's presidential campaign in Russia. It was signed by some two hundred intellectuals and public figures, the French being the most strongly represented but including signatories from fifteen other European countries and a number of Americans. Among the recognisable names are those of media and cultural personalities such as Costas Gavras, Jean-Luc Godard, John Le Carré, Bernardo Bertolucci, Jane Birkin, Vanessa Redgrave and Barbara Hendricks. Many of the others are widely known academics, such as Umberto Eco and Noam Chomsky, as well as a minor galaxy of familiar Parisian personalities.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, America, and Europe

2783. Russia's Eurasian Security Policy

Author:
Roland Dannreuther
Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Ever since Catherine the Great pronounced that 'Russia is a European country', Russia has been an inescapable part of the European balance of power. Russia's European credentials are indisputable. The larger majority of the Russian population, and most of the major economic centres, are located in the European part of Russia. Russians are Christian, if of the eastern orthodox faith, and Russian poets, novelists, artists and composers have made an extraordinary contribution to European culture. Russians perceive themselves as part of European civilisation, not least when confronted with other ancient civilisations, such as Iran, India and China. Moreover, other European actors have recognised Russia as an intrinsic part of the European order, even if at times this recognition has been mixed with strong doses of suspicion and fear. But, Russia is not only in Europe. Geographically, the larger part of Russia's territory, however inhospitable and poorly populated, lies in Asia. Culturally, Russia has periodically been hermetically sealed from mainstream developments in Europe. During the medieval period, Russia lay under Tartar rule; during the Soviet period, the borders were, in Stalin's words, under 'lock and key' and Western influences were rigorously excluded. The consequent backwardness of Russia, which has been a consequence of these intermittent linkages with the more developed West, has diluted Russia's European credentials. Russia's Asian destiny was also a deliberate act of state policy with Russia's borders being continually expanded into Asian territory. Russia had a similar experience to the United States with a continental expansion to the Pacific, which was driven, as in America, by entrepreneurial colonists who subsequently decimated the local populations. Towards the South, Russia followed European imperial practice and engaged in a mission civilisatrice to bring European-style rule over purportedly backward peoples. The Russian imperial experience differed from the British and French examples in one critical element: no division was made between the metropolitan centre and empire and thus no clearly demarcated border existed between the Russian state and its imperial appendages. The Tsarist military historian, Mikhail Vernukov, argued that this absence of a separation involved a different imperial practice when compared with 'Englishmen in India who do their utmost to avoid mingling with the natives . . . Our strength lies in the fact that . . . we have assimilated subject races, mingling affably with them'. For these and other reasons, Russia's European credentials have been questioned, not only by other Europeans but by Russians themselves. For west Europeans, the vast geographical expanse, the relative backwardness and large population, the heady mix of despotism and mysticism, has made Russia an alien entity, the 'other' from which the enlightened rational West can be contrasted. The well-known French proverb - 'Grattez le Russe, et vous trouverez le Tartare' - illustrates this European scepticism well. Russians themselves have often been drawn to emphasising the exceptionalism of Russia, not as in America because Russia represents the 'new' rather than the 'old' world, but because Russia's unique position between Europe and Asia makes it belong to neither and the fusion of East and West preserves the benefits of Western civilisation but without its decadent rationalism and materialism. The notion of Moscow as the Third Rome has been a continual source of attraction to the more mystical members of Russian society. This complex set of historical experiences, mutual perceptions and attitudes have contributed to the frequent shifts in Russia's policy towards the rest of Europe. At times, Russia has fully embraced the West so as to 'catch up' and modernise; at other times, Moscow has retreated into its citadels so as to preserve its uniqueness and the universality of its message. In terms of security policy, Russian leaders have been consistent in promoting as fluid and weak a set of alliance structures in Europe as possible. Alexander I, at the Congress of Vienna, was arguably the first to conceive of the notion of collective security and this legacy has been followed in more recent times with Gorbachev's promotion of a 'common European home' and the Soviet and post-Soviet predilection for defining the CSCE/OSCE as the overarching framework for the European security order. These collective security proposals, which have consistently baffled and irritated other Europeans powers, have had a strong realpolitik dimension, alongside the requisite dose of mysticism. Such schemes are designed to exclude a concentration of power in Europe, which might be directed against Russia, and to prevent the type of direct aggression which Russia suffered through the Napoleonic and Nazi invasions. Such flexible arrangements are also the most favourable mechanism for promoting Russian influence in Europe and to securing Russia's consistent desire, even obsession, to be treated as an equal with the other European great powers. It is clear that the West's rejection of the proposed collective security arrangement for the post-Cold War European order, and the corresponding expansion of NATO, has been viewed in Moscow as a humiliating geopolitical defeat. The sense of betrayal, of promises made by the West and then reneged upon, has been profoundly felt. With the perception of a Europe excluding and marginalising Russia, there has been a turn towards the East in the search for alternative avenues for projecting Russia's power and influence. Again, there are historical parallels with the nineteenth century when the concerted European effort to block Russian expansion into the Balkans, with its ultimate pan-Orthodox goal of capturing Constantinople, led to Russian energies being re-directed towards expansion in the Caucasus and Central Asia. In a similar vein, in March 1997, the Russian Presidential Spokesman, Sergei Yastrzhembskii, stated at the Russian-USA Helsinki summit: 'If NATO expansion is going to continue . . . Russia will be confronted with a need to reconsider its foreign-policy priorities. Our relations with China, India . . . and Iran are developing well'. The objective of this paper is to assess the nature, complexities and the relative success and failure of Russia's purported 'turn' to the East. Three areas will be briefly surveyed: recent Russian policy towards the Middle East, to Central Asia and to China.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Europe

2784. Russia, EU, U.S. and the Balkans: What Future?

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Unlike what has happened with Central-eastern Europe and the Eastern Balkans, policies conducted by the West towards Western Balkans after the end of the Cold War have had a largely reactive character. By and large, although the fragmentation of Yugoslavia had been widely feared and anticipated, developments in Western Balkans took the West aback because of their violent and uncompromising character. For this reason, with respect to this area the European countries and the United States have shown continuous hesitations and oscillations on how their interests in the area had to be understood, how much they had to feel involved and what they had to do.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Yugoslavia, and Balkans

2785. Redefining Sovereignty . The Use of Force After the End of the Cold War. New Options, Lawful and Legitimate?

Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The conference was organised by the Institute for International Affairs (IAI) with the support of the Centre for High Defence Studies (CASD), the German Marshall Fund of the United States, the NATO Office for Information and Press and the Thyssen Foundation. It was held in Rome, at the Centre for High Defence Studies, on 24 and 25 November 2000.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, NATO, Cold War, Human Rights, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Germany, and Rome

2786. EU's Emerging Military Policy and the Mena Areas

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The American component in the EU Middle East Policy cannot be considered in isolation. The transatlantic relationship has a complex character and, for this reason, there are linkages between different issues. The influence of transatlantic relations and the U.S. on what the EU does or does not do in the Middle East is not necessarily tied to the Middle East itself and to specific Middle Eastern issues debated in transatlantic relations. It may stem from other issues.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:
United States, America, Middle East, and North Africa

2787. The Role of International Organisations in the Mediterranean

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Mediterranean is an area where many different political, societal and cultural entities happen to stay in touch with one another. In some respects it may be regarded as a region in itself, in particular because of environment and a number of dwindling premodern, subcultural similarities. In general, though, it can hardly be regarded as a regional entity, i.e. endowed with a significant inner coherence. There is no doubt, that what characterises the Mediterranean area is its quintessential inter-regional structure. If we look at the initiatives to institutionalise inter-Mediterranean relations in the last few decades, we see that they are in fact of both regional and inter-regional character. In the functional realm, a clear example of Mediterranean regional organisation is the “Blue Plan”, set out within the framework of the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) with a view to manage common environmental resources relating to the sea. An example referring to the political realm can be drawn from the Cold War, namely the Mediterranean component of the Non-Aligned Movement. At that time, within that Movement there was a Mediterranean feeling shared by Southern European as well as Third World countries belonging to the area. Such common feeling was motivated by the perception of a cultural and political oppression enforced by imperialist quarters (the West, USA, NATO). This gave way to a search for a Mediterranean region de-linked from Western dominance.
Topic:
Security, Environment, and International Organization
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2788. The WTO and its Institutional Future - Evaluating the Lessons of Seattle

Author:
Isabella Falautano
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
There has been a lot of talk in the last months about the results of the third ministerial meeting of the WTO, held in Seattle from November 30th to December 3rd, 1999. In Seattle, the WTO was expected to adopt a proposal for the launching of a comprehensive new Round – the so-called Millennium Round – encompassing a broad and ambitious range of topics, from the more traditional challenges to the new trade issues. Instead, the meeting finished in a dramatic failure and the risk now is that the trading system of the twenty-first century will drift into a fog of uncertainty. One should point out that, at the end of the Uruguay Round a renegotiation was foreseen in the two key sectors of agriculture and services, the so-called "built-in" or progressive agenda. While the scenario for a global round, as I will try to clarify, is improbable to say the least in the short term, sectoral negotiations in agriculture and services will be starting in the year 2000. Nevertheless, the general context in which such negotiations are being launched, and in which the pro-Round coalition is trying to built consensus, is undoubtedly difficult.
Topic:
Globalization, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2789. Iran and Iraq: Sanctions and Dual Containment - A View from the European Union

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In recent years, many (non-American as well as American) analysts have put in question the wisdom and rationale of the US doctrine of the “dual containment” towards Iraq and Iran. Rather than being a strategic doctrine, the “dual containment” is a state of affairs reflecting the fact that the US was left without viable political options in the region by a set of mistakes whose cost it will be able to recover only in a more or less distant time: in particular, the full and blind support to the Shah's regime against any nationalist, liberal and religious groups in the country and the support to Iraq in the war against Iran, which convinced the Iraqi ruling regime of being entitled to exercise in the region a kind of proconsular power and prepared the country politically and militarily to its unfortunate attempt at swallowing Kuwait.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Iran, Kuwait, and Arab Countries

2790. Including Libya? EU, Arab World, and the U.S.

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Libyan leadership's decision to hand over the two citizens suspected of carrying out the terrorist attack against a Pan Am civilian aircraft over Lockerbie on December 12, 1988 undoubtedly marks a change in Tripoli's foreign policy. It remains to be seen how durable this change will be and whether international policies may consolidate it or make it less reversible than Tripoli's record would suggest. While one can only speculate on how long Libya's new foreign policy direction will last, the second question-whether this direction can be consolidated - is the basic matter addressed in this paper. Libya is a special and, to some extent, extreme case in a range of post-Cold War developments and changes which concern a good number of Arab countries. The Libyan case must be put in this more general perspective.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Libya, and Arab Countries