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1. The economic contribution of UK rail

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The UK railway sector supported £42.9 billion of economic production (GVA) in 2019, associated with 710,000 jobs. Productivity and wage levels, both on the railways and in the rail supply sector, were above-average in every region. The UK railway sector supported £42.9 billion of economic production and was associated with 710,000 jobs and £14.1 billion in tax revenues in 2019, new research by Oxford Economics finds. The rail transport system—Network Rail and the train and metro system operators—accounted for £12.2 billion of that total Gross Value Added (GVA) measure of output. For every £1 of activity on the railway system itself, a further £2.50 of income was generated elsewhere in the UK economy, as a result of supply chain links and other knock-on effects. This extra GVA comprised £17.8 billion in the rail supply sector, £0.9 billion in on-station retail and its suppliers, and £12.0 billion across the wider consumer-facing economy due to wage-funded employee spending (the so-called ‘induced impact’). The study, commissioned by the Railway Industry Association (RIA), also finds that both productivity and wages are higher than the economy-wide average, in both the rail transport system and rail supply sector. This is true not just for the UK as a whole, but for every one of its 12 constituent regions and countries. Finally, the analysis looks at the potential impact of extra public spending on the UK rail infrastructure. Looking further into the future, if rail infrastructure spending were 50% higher than the ‘baseline’ expectation, an extra 104,000 rail supply sector jobs would be supported throughout the five-year period 2025-29. Even if these jobs simply displaced other work, the economy would still benefit, because of their high-productivity, high-wage nature. In the more immediate future, the economy will still be recovering from the Covid pandemic, and will therefore have a degree of spare capacity. This means that any extra jobs created by an uplift in rail infrastructure investment could be genuinely additional, rather than displacing other employment. And this work could support more new jobs in turn, through induced effects. Here, we find that every extra £100 million per annum of spending on rail infrastructure would support an additional 1,400 well-paid jobs in the rail supply sector, plus a further 700 jobs across the wider consumer-facing economy.
Topic:
Economics, Infrastructure, Railways, and Travel
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

2. The socio-economic impact of cultivated meat in the UK

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
A report on the potential socio-economic benefits of the cultivated meat sector in conjunction with leading UK producer Ivy Farm Technologies. The cultivated meat industry is in its infancy, both in the UK and in most countries around the world. But it clearly presents significant opportunities for entrepreneurs, investors, and other commercial partners to exploit the global potential of a move away from conventional farming towards more sustainable methods. However, the UK industry is currently not able to take advantage of the commercial opportunities while it awaits regulatory approval. This report has sought to demonstrate that there is a strong economic rationale for allowing UK firms to move from research and development into production. As the report highlights, the UK cultivated meat market has the potential to grow into an industry with a total gross value added contribution to UK GDP of over £2 billion in 2030. The detailed analysis of the value of economic activity generated, the number of highly-skilled jobs created and supported, and the taxation revenue (up to £523 million) generated shows the industry has the potential to become an important sectoral driver of growth during the next decade.
Topic:
Economics, Job Creation, Socioeconomics, and Business Management
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

3. The Economic Impact of an Online Retail Sales Tax in the UK

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Amazon have commissioned Oxford Economics to produce an independent quantitative assessment of the economic implications of the introduction of an online sales tax in the UK. On 27 July 2020, HM Treasury (HMT) announced a call for evidence around the issue of a business rates review. Contained within this document was a consideration of alternative tax bases that could raise revenue for the Exchequer to compensate for any shortfall that might be created by business rates reform. One of the options proposed was an online sales tax (OST). In this context, Amazon have commissioned Oxford Economics to produce an independent quantitative assessment of the economic implications of the introduction of such a tax in the UK. We find that that the introduction of an OST would raise around £1.6 billion in government revenue. The burden of the tax would be split between consumers, online sales platforms, and upstream businesses. Our analysis shows that a majority of the tax’s burden will most likely be borne by consumers who could lose around £1.3 billion in welfare terms. The net inefficiencies due to the OST are estimated to be around £200 million (i.e., 13% of the revenue). The government’s fiscal options will need to be assessed against a range of economic as well as procedural criteria. In our assessment of the OST against the Treasury Select Committee’s principles of taxation, we found that the OST is distortive and also could potentially restrict SMEs from competing in the retail market. Further, the disproportionate impact on households in the lowest income decile and on economically weaker regions of the UK as well as the restrictive effect on the elderly and the disabled raise questions about the fairness of the OST.
Topic:
Economics, Digital Economy, Retail, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

4. Global giants and local stars: How changes in brand ownership affect competition

Author:
Vanessa Alviarez, Keith Head, and Thierry Mayer
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
We assess the consequences for consumers in 76 countries of multinational acquisitions in beer and spirits. Outcomes depend on how changes in ownership affect markups versus efficiency. We find that owner fixed effects contribute very little to the performance of brands. On average, foreign ownership tends to raise costs and lower appeal. Using the estimated model, we simulate the consequences of counterfactual national merger regulation. The US beer price index would have been 4-7% higher without divestitures. Up to 30% savings could have been obtained in Latin America by emulating the pro-competition policies of the US and EU.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and Multinational Corporations
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Latin America, and Global Focus

5. The Projected Economic Impact of COVID-19 on the U.K. Creative Industries

Author:
Alice Gambarin and Osman Ismail
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
This report explores the short-term effects of Covid-19 on the financial sustainability of the creative industries in the UK. Along with the tourism sector, Creative Industries (CIs) are among the most affected by the current Covid-19 crisis. Creative workers, one of the more vulnerable sectors of the workforce, are already seeing devastating impacts on their income, not only in turnover terms, but also in their charitable contributions and sponsorship. Leaving behind the more fragile part of the sector could cause irreparable socio-economic damage. We find that the Creative Industries are projecting a combined £77bn turnover loss over the course of 2020 compared to 2019 (-31%). This is expected to translate into a GVA shortfall of £29bn in 2020 compared to 2019 (-26%), over half of which is in London. In 2020, CIs are projecting a 122,000 drop in employment among employees (despite the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme - JRS) and a further 287,000 job losses among self employed workers, compared to 2019 levels. In total, 409,000 CIs jobs are considered at risk, 27% of which are in London and 20% are in the South East.
Topic:
Economics, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Socioeconomics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

6. Britain's No-Deal Debacle? The Costs at Home and Likely Setbacks Abroad

Author:
John Ryan
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
For much of the past four years, and increasingly in the past few months, the United Kingdom has drifted in the direction of a No-Deal Brexit. In this Strategic Update, John Ryan explores the economic and political consequences for the United Kingdom of such a situation, as well as the domestic factors in Ireland and the United States that may provide unanticipated problems for the Johnson government.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Politics, Brexit, and Trade
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, Ireland, and United States of America

7. The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty

Author:
Tarek A. Hassan, Laurence van Lent, Stephan Hollander, and Ahmed Tahoun
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Using tools from computational linguistics, we construct new measures of the impact of Brexit on listed firms in the United States and around the world: the share of discussions in quarterly earnings conference calls on costs, benefits, and risks associated with the UK’s intention to leave the EU. Using this approach, we identify which firms expect to gain or lose from Brexit and which are most affected by Brexit uncertainty. We then estimate the effects of these different kinds of Brexit exposure on firm-level outcomes. We find that concerns about Brexit-related uncertainty extend far beyond British or even European firms. US and international firms most exposed to Brexit uncertainty have lost a substantial fraction of their market value and have reduced hiring and investment. In addition to Brexit uncertainty (the second moment), we find that international firms overwhelmingly expect negative direct effects of Brexit (the first moment), should it come to pass. Most prominently, firms expect difficulties resulting from regulatory divergence, reduced labor mobility, trade access, and the costs of adjusting their operations post-Brexit. Consistent with the predictions of canonical theory, this negative sentiment is recognized and priced in stock markets but has not yet had significant effects on firm actions.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, Brexit, Global Political Economy, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
Britain, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and European Union

8. The economic impact of Boris Johnson’s Brexit proposals

Author:
Anand Menon
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The Prime Minister has set out a means of escaping the Brexit stalemate, but his new Brexit proposals have, as yet, not managed to overcome the impasse. What, though, would the plan mean for the UK economy? That is the question we seek to answer in what follows. As ever, we have been lucky enough to be able to draw on the skills and expertise of some of the leading experts in the field. The bulk of the work was done by Hanwei Huang, Jonathan Portes and Thomas Sampson, with contributions from Matt Bevington and Jill Rutter. Hanwei and Thomas used the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance trade model to carry out the modelling. We hope you find the report interesting and informative. Brexit is clearly about more than economics, but the economic impact of leaving the EU nevertheless merits careful scrutiny.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, European Union, Brexit, and Boris Johnson
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

9. Global Safe Haven Bonding Foreign and Domestic Owners of the U.S. Public Debt

Author:
Sandy Brian Hager
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:
This paper offers new theoretical and empirical insights to explain the resilience of the U.S. Treasuries market as a safe haven for global investment. Going beyond the standard systemic explanation, the paper highlights the importance of domestic politics in reinforcing the safe haven status of U.S. Treasury securities. In particular, the research shows how a formidable “bond” of interests unites domestic and foreign owners of the public debt and works to sustain U.S. power in global finance. Foreigners who now own roughly half of the U.S. public debt have something to gain from their domestic counterparts. The top one percent of U.S. households that dominate domestic ownership of the U.S. public debt have considerable political clout, thus alleviating foreign concerns about the creditworthiness of the U.S. federal government. Domestic owners of the U.S. public debt, in turn, have something to gain from the seemingly insatiable foreign appetite for U.S. Treasury securities. In supplying the U.S. federal government and U.S. households with cheap credit, foreign investors in U.S. Treasuries help to deflect challenges to the top one percent within the wealth and income hierarchy.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Political Economy, Inequality, and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and United Kingdom

10. Portfolio Diversification Between Developed And Less Developed Economies

Author:
Tirimisiyu F. Oloko
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
This study examines the hedging effectiveness of portfolio investment diversification between developed and developing economies; with focus on the Nigerian stock asset vis-à-vis the stock assets of the United States (US) and United Kingdom (UK). Its main contribution is in the analysis of optimal portfolio diversification using optimal portfolio weight (OPW) and optimal hedging ratio (OHR). Empirical findings show that the OPW and OHR are low, which indicates impressive potential gains from combining Nigerian stock assets in an investment portfolio with US and UK stock assets. In addition, exchange rate volatility is found to pose stern limitation on the potential benefits of this portfolio diversification arrangement. It is therefore recommended that the monetary authority in Nigeria should pursue policies towards reducing exchange rate volatility to the barest minimum. This will possibly attract more investors from developed economies who might be willing to combine Nigerian stock in their investment portfolio to minimize portfolio risk.
Topic:
Economics, Investment, Diversification, and Stock Markets
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, Nigeria, and United States of America