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2. Türkiye Struggling with Economic Problems and Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The ongoing crisis in the Turkish economy poses a risk of destabilisation in the EU’s southern neighbourhood. The intensification of the pauperisation of the society and brain drain may have an impact on the results of next year’s elections. The long-lasting economic difficulties are also prompting Türkiye to normalise relations with Arab states and Israel.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, European Union, Economy, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
3. Adapting to New Realities: Israel’s foreign policy in post-Netanyahu times
- Author:
- Gabriel Haritos
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Israel had to adapt to the revised objectives of the Biden administration in the Middle East and to update its coordination with Russia on the Syria front. The war in Ukraine has reconfigured Israel’s relations with the US and Russia. Israel’s reluctance to provide arms to Ukraine has allowed Russian-Israeli coordination to continue in Syria. The energy crisis triggered by the Russo-Ukrainian war led the US to revise its stance towards Saudi Arabia. The US-Iran talks ground to a halt in Vienna in the light of the growing ties between Iran and Russia. Israel took advantage of the new state of affairs, encouraging the rapprochement between Washington and Riyadh and countering the possibility of the US reopening its consulate in East Jerusalem. In coordination with the US, Israel has promoted the deepening of the Abraham Accords and drawn India into the new Middle East reality through the new I2U2 mechanism. Thanks to carefully managed communication, the Bennett-Lapid government was able to restore diplomatic relations with Turkey while maintaining close cooperation with Greece and Cyprus. It would seem advisable to put in place additional safeguards to maintain the quality of Athens-Nicosia -Jerusalem relations, similar to those which are expected to accompany the revamped relations between Israel and Turkey.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, Greece, and United States of America
4. What is new about the reset between Israel and Turkey?
- Author:
- Selin Nasi
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Entering 2021, revising its foreign policy became an ever more pressing necessity for Ankara, in the light of both international and domestic developments. The Turkish government only took steps towards mending its broken ties with countries in the region, including Israel, when the economic cost of its assertive policies began to threaten Erdoğan’s rule. Israeli PM Netanyahu’s defeat in the 2021 elections provided an opportunity for Ankara to step up its diplomatic overtures toward Israel. Bilateral relations may follow a different course than they did in the 2000s, primarily because the basic parameters of the relationship between Israel and Turkey have changed since Israel made new friends in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. The erosion of institutions and the subsequent personalization of Turkish foreign policy render bilateral relations prone to crisis. For Israelis, this is a manageable risk, at least for now, given the benefits Ankara can expect from normalizing relations with Israel. Against the backdrop of an intensifying power competition between the US and China, Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, and the current security landscape in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean, opportunities for cooperation between Israel and Turkey remain dependent on the resolution of long-standing issues.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Israel
5. Greece and Turkey in the world today: the public’s view
- Author:
- Ioannis N. Grigoriadis, Panagiota Manoli, and Evangelos Areteos
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- The Policy Paper by Ioannis N. Grigoriadis, Senior Research Fellow, Head of ELIAMEP Turkey Programme; Associate Professor, University of Bilkent; Panagiota Manoli, Research Fellow, ELIAMEP; Assistant Professor of Political Economy of International Relations, University of Peloponnese and Evangelos Areteos, Research Associate at ELIAMEP Turkey Programme, highlights the main findings of the third joint poll in Greece and Turkey, which took place in the first ten days of May 2022. Among other things, it aims to capture and compare the perceptions of Greek and Turkish public opinion regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the role of the United States and NATO in European security, and Greek and Turkish identity.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, NATO, and Public Opinion
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Greece
6. Turkey and the West: A Hostile Dance
- Author:
- Nick Danforth
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Tensions between Turkey and the West have steadily worsened over the past five years, but analysts are still no closer to predicting what this means for the future. Many assume that longstanding strategic and economic ties will ultimately force both sides to muddle through and preserve their relationship, while others anticipate that pressure will build to the point where a decisive break becomes inevitable. This paper examines a number of different scenarios that have been put forward for Turkey’s relations with the US and EU, then tries to navigate between the most plausible among them to predict how this hostile dance might progress.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, United States of America, and Mediterranean
7. Is the Muslim Brotherhood losing Turkey and Qatar in the light of the rapprochement with Egypt?
- Author:
- Michael Barak
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Egypt's relations with Turkey and Qatar have been improving for the last six months, following a long period of diplomatic crises and hostility that lasted eight years and four years, respectively. This rapprochement is an attempt to reset relations in a way that would allow all three parties to maintain their good relations with the new U.S. administration. As a condition for normalizing ties, Egypt had demanded that Turkey and Qatar end their support to the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). This demand has been described in the Arab media as an ominous sign for the MB, which feared it would be sacrificed on the altar of Turkish and Qatari state interests. However, the discourse of the MB's members on the subject, the continued anti-Egyptian remarks of senior Turkish government officials, and the intention of the Egyptian government to execute senior MB leaders suggests that the chances of Turkey and the MB ending their relationship are quite slim. Qatar, for its part, continues to allow the MB's members to find refuge within its borders, but at the same time is not interested in provoking Egypt.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Government, and Muslim Brotherhood
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Egypt, Qatar, and Gulf Nations
8. The way forward for Turkish-American relations: Partnership à la carte?
- Author:
- Selin Nasi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of Turkeyscope, Selin Nasi analyzes how Turkish and American foreign policies have reached an impasse on a number of issues. Despite these differences, she highlights several areas of mutual interest where cooperation can, nevertheless, improve the relationship going forward.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Partnerships, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and United States of America
9. Afghanistan offers an opportunity to repair Turkey-NATO relations
- Author:
- Kohei Imai
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of Turkeyscope, Dr. Kohei Imai discusses the context for Turkey's planned involvement in Afghanistan even after the US-led widrawal that is currently underway. Turkey's agreement to handle security for the Kabul airport demonstrates its unique and strategic role in NATO.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and NATO
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Turkey, and United States of America
10. The Central Asian Perspective on Turkey: Does Family Come First?
- Author:
- Oğul Tuna
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Oğul Tuna discusses the changing role of Turkey in Central Asia in recent years. This essay argues that ethnolinguistic links have helped improve relations since the collapse of the Soviet Union, but each Central Asian state has its own calculations that factor into separate diplomatic, cultural, and defense deals with Turkey.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Culture, Ethnicity, and Language
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia and Turkey
11. The Interests of Eastern Mediterranean States and Israeli Policies
- Author:
- Mitvim
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- This paper scans the interests and activities of Greece, Cyprus, Turkey and Egypt in the Mediterranean Basin – their varying and competing interests, their points of convergence and cooperation, and the challenges and opportunities for Israel. The paper is based on the main points raised at the third meeting of the working group on Israel in the Mediterranean, held in September 2019 in the Herzliya offices of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung at the initiative of the Mitvim Institute, the Hebrew University’s Leonard Davis Institute for International Relations and Haifa University’s National Security Studies Center. The paper shines a spotlight on key elements in regional relationships and significant activity taking place in the Mediterranean Basin, which Israel must consider in formulating and executing policy. It is based on the presentations and discussions conducted at the event and does not reflect agreement among all participants.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Palestine, Egypt, Cyprus, and Mediterranean
12. Setting the bounds of the European Union
- Author:
- Andrew Duff
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Policy Centre (EPC)
- Abstract:
- The EU’s enlargement policy is in contention. President Macron links further progress towards the accession of the Western Balkans to the Union’s own need for internal deepening. Brexit sharpens the debate about the size of the Union and may offer new opportunities, short of membership, for the EU’s wider neighbourhood. The Commission’s proposals to reform the accession process are well meaning but inadequate. The European Council needs to adopt a strategic approach, including spelling out its real intentions with respect to the Balkans. A dynamic association agreement may be a better alternative to full membership for the Western Balkans and Turkey.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Balkans
13. Turkey's Foreign Policy in the Age of Uncertainty
- Author:
- Hidajet Biscevic
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
- Abstract:
- From the early period of post-Cold War world order in the last decade of 20th century, through challenges and changes over the two decades of 21st century, Turkey’s foreign policy has been characterized by the need and ability to adapt to the changing, and ever deteriorating global conditions. Changes in the structure and nature of international order and the way Turkish foreign policy evolved are directly related. During the initial period of undisputed unipolar order, Turkey shaped its foreign policy in a way to align its national goals with the main Western partners and alliances. But, as the international system gradually moved from unipolarity to the current “unfinished new system”, characterized by renewed competition and confrontation among a rising number of actors, Turkey started to pursue multi-dimensional and multi- directional foreign policy strategy and practice. In sum, it could be argued that there were “two phases” of Turkish foreign policy approach: of Erdogan's period in 2002.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Asia
14. All Hands on Deck: the Crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Need for US Leadership
- Author:
- Alexandros Zachariades
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- Crisis has returned to the Eastern Mediterranean where Greek and Turkish economic interests, legal claims, and armed forces are squaring off. In this Strategic Update, Alexandros Zachariades explores how the two NATO powers arrived at the current confrontation, how the contest intersects with issues ranging from China to Libya, and how the international community can resolve the tension.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, Economics, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- China, Turkey, Greece, Libya, United States of America, and Mediterranean
15. The 2018 Israel-Turkey Policy Dialogue of the Mitvim Institute
- Author:
- Mitvim
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- In October 2018, the Mitvim Institute held its annual Israel-Turkey policy dialogue, for the seventh consecutive year. The dialogue took place in Istanbul, in cooperation with FriedrichEbert-Stiftung, and was participated by Dr. Nimrod Goren, Dr. Roee Kibrik and Arik Segal of the Mitvim Institute. The policy dialogue included a series of meetings and discussions, with Turkish scholars, journalists, former diplomats, and civil society activists. It focused on Israel-Turkey relations, in light of the current crisis in ties, and on Turkey’s foreign policy in the Middle East. The policy dialogue aimed at helping improve Israel-Turkey relations, by enabling experts from both countries to exchange views on regional developments, to identify opportunities for better bilateral relations, and to increase cooperation between researchers and policy analysts from both countries. Throughout the dialogue, there was a sense that Turkey and Israel can find a way to overcome their current crisis and to reinstate ambassadors. Nevertheless, such progress is not expected to lead to a significant breakthrough in the relations. The Turkish counterparts expressed hope that Israel and Turkey will resume talks on natural gas export from Israel; shared their concern over what they perceive as Israel's support of the Kurds in northern Syria; and pointed out that Turkey and Iran should not be considered by Israel as allies, but rather as countries that cooperate at times regarding shared interest but are also competing with each other and adhering to different ideologies and beliefs. The dialogue also emphasized the importance attributed in Turkey to Jewish community in the US, and to the impact it has on the American discourse towards Turkey as well as on US policy towards the Middle East. This paper highlights key insights from the meetings and discussions that took place throughout the policy dialogue. It does not reflect consensus among all participants.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Israel
16. Hamas Activities in Turkey against Israel
- Author:
- Omer Dostri
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Ankara is allowing Hamas to continue operating from Turkish territory against Israel. Israel can and should thwart such Turkish violations of the reconciliation agreement between the two countries.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hamas
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Asia
17. Turkey's political direction: Authoritarianism, liberal democracy or dissolution?
- Author:
- Toni Alaranta
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- After the re-run of the parliamentary election on 1 November 2015, it is certain that Turkey will again be ruled by the Justice and Development Party’s (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) one-party government. Based on this premise, this study provides a future-oriented analysis in the form of three scenarios: 1) an authoritarian Islamist state; 2) a consolidated liberal democracy; and 3) the dissolution of the Turkish state. The study also identifies three major drivers: a) the AKP and the Islamic-conservative state project; b) regional instability; and c) the Kurdish question. Regarding scenario one, there are factors and processes present that decidedly increase the possibility of an authoritarian Islamist state in Turkey. On the other hand, the republican tradition of parliamentary democracy has at the same time proved to be remarkably resilient, suggesting that the course of events depicted in the positive scenario two still have a significant chance in the long run. Scenario three, the dissolution of the Turkish state, would create enormous instability in the EU’s immediate neighbourhood and exponentially increase unpredictable tendencies and conflicts. The internal and external forces that could produce such a dramatic outcome are still rather weak, but they do exist in an embryonic form. Thus, the republican modernization project attaching Turkey to the Western legacy of secular humanism should not be underestimated and may well prevail in the end. For the time being, however, it seems to be on the losing side as the political process is consolidating the Islamic-conservative version of Turkish nationalism. At the present moment this current is pointing to a concentration of power and a non-pluralist authoritarian regime whereby national identity is increasingly constructed in a form that conceptualizes political liberalism as an existential threat.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Affairs, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
18. Maintaining International Peace and Security: A Summit Meeting of the UN Security Council
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- On September 23, 2010, the United Nations Security Council held a summit meeting on the maintenance of international peace and security, which is the primary responsibility of the Council. The summit was initiated by Turkey, a nonpermanent member of the Council in 2009-2010 and holder of the rotating presidency for September 2010. It was attended by nine heads of state and government and six ministers, and chaired by Abdullah Gul, President of the Republic of Turkey. The resulting presidential statement (S/PRST/2010/18, reproduced in the Annex to this report) reaffirmed that international peace and security require a more comprehensive and coherent approach. The Council also pledged to continue to strengthen the crisis-management toolbox at its disposal, including preventive diplomacy, peacemaking, peacekeeping, and peacebuilding, and to adapt it to changing circumstances. In addition, the statement reiterated the Council's support for the protection of civilians and its commitment to strengthening strategic partnerships with regional and subregional organizations and other relevant players. Further, it reaffirmed the importance of women in all aspects of prevention and resolution of conflicts and underlined the importance of addressing the root causes of conflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and United Nations
19. The Field of the Blackbirds and the Battle for Europe
- Author:
- Anna Di Lellio
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Serbia, Kosovo, and Turkey, all European Union applicants, recognize that the possibility of European belonging as historical reality is a crucial attribute for acceptance. These countries have all built national stories rooted in the Medieval Ottoman conquest of the Western Balkans and distanced themselves from the “Orient” and from Islam. By doing so, they have engaged in a debate with a “thick,” rather than a “thin” conception of Europe; they have tried to measure up to Europe as a traditional community of values defined by its Christian character, rather than the dynamic cosmopolitan Europe of law and standards which is officially embodied by the Union. Paradoxically, the revival of these national memories not only anchors a particular configuration of national time and space for Serbs, Albanians, and Turks. It mirrors a concern with identity, very present at the core of Europe, which is often resolved through the affirmation of an allegedly authentic and coherent European Christian tradition.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Nationalism, Religion, and History
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Central Asia, Turkey, Kosovo, Serbia, and Balkans
20. Turkey and Armenia: Opening Minds, Opening Borders
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Turkey and Armenia are close to settling a dispute that has long roiled Caucasus politics, isolated Armenia and cast a shadow over Turkey's European Union (EU) ambition. For a decade and a half, relations have been poisoned by disagreement about issues including how to address a common past and compensate for crimes, territorial disputes, distrust bred in Soviet times and Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani land. But recently, progressively intense official engagement, civil society interaction and public opinion change have transformed the relationship, bringing both sides to the brink of an historic agreement to open borders, establish diplomatic ties and begin joint work on reconciliation. They should seize this opportunity to normalise. The politicised debate whether to recognise as genocide the destruction of much of the Ottoman Armenian population and the stalemated Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh should not halt momentum. The U.S., EU, Russia and others should maintain support for reconciliation and avoid harming it with statements about history at a critical and promising time.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Genocide, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Turkey, Caucasus, Asia, Soviet Union, Armenia, and Azerbaijan