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  • Author: Paul J. Sullivan, Natalie Nasrallah
  • Publication Date: 06-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United States Institute of Peace
  • Abstract: Most experts view secession as the most likely outcome of the 2011 referendum on southern Sudan's potential secession. While this scenario may lead to some stability in the long run, effective secession immediately after the referendum may prove difficult. There is significant concern about preparedness for the referendum at the national, regional, and community levels. While postponing the vote may provide some breathing room, it heightens the risk of uncertainty and instability. Each plausible scenario—unity, secession, or a delay to the referendum—holds great uncertainty and risk regarding the potential impacts on oil, land, and water. The effects of each scenario could drastically change if the political and economic situations on the ground become more fragile. Management of petroleum resources is one of the most serious challenges facing Sudan's leaders. Petroleum is the largest foreign exchange earner and the biggest contributor to fiscal revenues for both north and south. Potential flash points include revenue transparency and equitable sharing formulas, as well as financing for exploration, production, new infrastructure development, and maintenance of existing infrastructure. There are insufficient data on, and attention to, use and potential of land and water. The management of both resources poses serious challenges that could derail statehood and precipitate violence. If oil, water, and land are not managed and developed properly and sustainably, both north and south Sudan could be facing a much more uncertain and violent future.
  • Topic: Economics, Politics
  • Political Geography: Sudan
  • Author: Bjørn Moller
  • Publication Date: 08-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Recent violent conflicts in Africa have seen extensive use of very irregular armed forces by governments. Examples include the use of Kamajors in Sierra Leone, Janjaweed and other militias in Sudan and Interahamwe militias in the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. The paper, originally written for a seminar on Threatened Trust. The transformation of the state and fading civil security at the Centre for African Studies, Institute for Social Anthropology, University of Basel, Basel, 9-10 January 2006, analyses the historical background of such phenomena, the strategic benefits and drawbacks of the resort to such forces, the consequences for the conduct of armed conflicts and the implications thereof for the civilian populations. Finally, it points to a number of complications caused by the presence of such forces for peace settlements and post-conflict peacebuilding, including DDR (disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration) of former combatants and security sector reform.
  • Topic: Civil War, Politics
  • Political Geography: Africa, Sudan
  • Publication Date: 10-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: The African Union's (AU) intervention in Sudan's Darfur region tests the effectiveness of its own peace and security structures and those of the European Union (EU). The AU has taken the lead both in the political negotiations between the government and the rebels and in deploying a peace-monitoring mission, the AU Mission in Sudan (AMIS). It has had to rely on outside support for AMIS, with nearly two thirds of its funding coming from the EU's African Peace Facility. The results are mixed. If Darfur is to have stability anytime soon, and the two organisations are to fulfil their ambitions to be major players in crisis prevention and crisis resolution, AMIS must get more troops and a more proactive, civilian-protection mandate, and the EU needs to find ways to go beyond the present limitations of the African Peace Facility in providing assistance.
  • Topic: International Relations, Politics
  • Political Geography: Africa, Europe, Sudan
  • Publication Date: 07-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United States Agency for International Development
  • Abstract: The humanitarian emergency in Darfur is a direct result of violence and harassment directed toward the Fur, Zaghawa, and Masaalit civilian groups by Government of Sudan (GOS) forces and GOS-supported militia groups collectively known as Jingaweit. In early 2003, the Sudanese Liberation Movement/Army (SLM/A) stated that they would engage in armed struggle to achieve full respect for human rights and an end to political and economic marginalization in Darfur. On April 24 and 25, 2003 the SLM/A attacked GOS military forces at El Fasher in North Darfur. Following this attack, GOS military forces and Jingaweit militia initiated a more coordinated campaign of violence against civilian populations, including aerial bombardments to kill, maim, and terrorize civilians who the GOS claimed were harboring opposition forces. Conflict-affected populations have described recurrent and systematic assaults against towns and villages, looting, burning of buildings and crops, destruction of water sources and irrigation systems, gang rape, and murders. Throughout late 2003, armed conflict intensified, as GOS military and Jingaweit clashed with the two main opposition groups – the SLM/A and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) – in Darfur. Following U.S. Government (USG) and European Union (EU) facilitated negotiations in N'Djamena, Chad, the two main opposition groups and the GOS signed a renewable 45-day humanitarian ceasefire on April 8 that took effect on April 11. This agreement included a GOS commitment to disarm Jingaweit militia groups and a protocol on providing humanitarian assistance in Darfur. The ceasefire agreement was renewed on May 22. Despite the ceasefire, Jingaweit violence against civilians continues in all three states of Darfur resulting in increasing displacement. Because the victims are displaced and vulnerable, they become targets of further violence. Even in villages where there is nothing left to burn, the fear of further violence continues to paralyze displaced populations, preventing voluntary returns. This cycle prevents many internally displaced persons (IDPs) from safely returning home, trapping them in camps or informal settlements for the foreseeable future. Out of an estimated population of 6.5 million in Darfur, approximately 2.2 million people are affected by the crisis, including more than 1 million IDPs and approximately 158,000 refugees who have fled into neighboring Chad. Humanitarian access to conflict-affected populations outside of the state capitals of Geneina, El Fasher, and Nyala was extremely limited until late May due to GOS impediments that blocked humanitarian access and relief operations. As a result of intense international pressure, the GOS lifted some of the restrictive travel regulations and announced a series of measures, effective May 24, to facilitate humanitarian access to Darfur. USAID's Disaster Assistance Response Team (USAID/DART) and other humanitarian agencies have deployed additional staff to Darfur to increase emergency response capacity. However, several obstacles remain, including continued delays in obtaining visas for relief personnel, travel restrictions within Darfur, difficulties in clearing essential relief supplies and equipment though customs, and GOS interference in relief activities that address protection of civilians and human rights abuses.
  • Topic: Human Rights, Human Welfare, Politics, War
  • Political Geography: Africa, Sudan, North Africa
  • Publication Date: 06-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United States Agency for International Development
  • Abstract: For more than 20 years, Sudan has been adversely impacted by armed conflict, famine, and disease, largely associated with the civil war between the Government of Sudan (GOS) and the Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A). Since war began in 1983, more than 2 million people have died, approximately 628,000 Sudanese have sought refuge in neighboring countries, and more than 4 million people have been displaced, creating the largest internally displaced person (IDP) population in the world. Until April 2003, when violence increased dramatically in western Sudan, conflict had mainly affected southern Sudan and the transition zone between North and South. In 1989, the United Nations (U.N.) established Operation Lifeline Sudan, a tripartite access agreement among the GOS, the SPLM/A, and the U.N. Under this framework, U.N. agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) provide humanitarian and rehabilitation assistance to vulnerable southern Sudanese. Since 1983, the U.S. Government (USG) has provided more than $1.9 billion in humanitarian assistance to Sudan.
  • Topic: Human Rights, Human Welfare, Politics, War
  • Political Geography: Africa, Sudan, North Africa
  • Publication Date: 06-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United States Agency for International Development
  • Abstract: I thank the Chairman and Members of this Committee for holding this hearing. Your interest in Sudan is helpful and can have useful repercussions on the ground in Sudan at a time when the situation there is more fragile and more complicated than ever. Several Members of this Committee have been involved in Sudanese issues for many years, and I can assure you that that fact is known and respected in the region. Your veteran wisdom, fresh ideas, and steady engagement on Sudan are welcome and appreciated by me, by my USAID colleagues, and by many Sudanese I have met in my regular travels to the region. Thank you for the opportunity to testify today.
  • Topic: Human Rights, Human Welfare, Politics, War
  • Political Geography: Africa, Sudan, North Africa