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22. Ukraine’s relations with Russia, the EU and the US: The background, the current crisis and what must be done
- Author:
- Volodymyr Dubovyk
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Since the beginning of Euromaidan (Maidan II), Ukraine finds itself entangled in a deep crisis, which, while not necessarily existential, dramatically alters the country’s internal dynamics and international positioning vis-à-vis its neighbors and other significant regional and global players. To handle this crisis, Ukraine must find the right method of dealing with international players, especially the Russian Federation, the European Union and the United States of America. Ukraine should take certain actions against the new super-assertive and aggressive Russia. The European Union unquestionably has provided significant aid to Ukraine during these turbulent times. However, there remains great potential for cooperation, and questions linger regarding whether the EU is prepared to foot the bill for pulling Ukraine’s economy away from the brink indefinitely. Finally, the United States should by all means continue doing its good work in bringing attention to the situation in and around Ukraine in a variety of ways, including multilateral venues, unilateral initiatives, and bilateral frameworks. The fact that Ukraine is located in Europe does not make this crisis a mere European problem but a conflict with global repercussions.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Political Economy, International Security, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and European Union
23. The Crimean conundrum: What has happened and what to expect in the future
- Author:
- Oleksandr Fisun
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- The Russian annexation of the Crimean peninsula represents a radical transformation of the system of international security on the European continent and in the wider context of the postwar “Yalta system” of interstate boundaries and their guarantees by major international players. The most important takeaway is that for the first time since World War II, one of the founders of the Yalta system of international boundaries has considered it within the realm of possibility to revisit its provisions by directly augmenting its own territory. This paper aims to analyze the outcomes of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the features of the newly formed regional political regime in Crimea, the role of Crimea in contemporary Ukrainian politics, as well as to present scenarios for the development of the geopolitical situation surrounding the “Crimean issue” in the context of the possible actions that primary geopolitical players may take.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Organization, International Security, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea
24. Understanding Public Opinion in Russia During the Ukraine Crisis
- Author:
- Timothy Frye
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- What are public attitudes in Russia toward the war in Ukraine? Is this Putin’s war, or do his narrative on Ukraine and the policies he has followed toward that country resonate with Russian citizens? If the war has popular support, to what extent is this the case and why?
- Topic:
- International Relations, War, and Public Opinion
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Ukraine
25. Ukraine As A Buffer Zone? History Lessons For The New Geopolitics Of Eurasia
- Author:
- Thomas Graham, Rajan Menon, and Jack Snyder
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Amidst calls for containing an assertive Russia, politicians and pundits have been debating whether Ukraine should serve as a “buffer zone” between the Russian and Western spheres of influence. Based on a survey of the history of buffer zones in Ukraine and elsewhere, we argue that buffer strategies are most likely to succeed in promoting international stability when three mutually reinforcing conditions obtain. First, the buffer state has the material strength, defensible geography, and social cohesiveness necessary to resist penetration, annexation, or partition. Second, states that may contemplate using war as a means to annex or dominate the buffer zone anticipate high risks and costs. Buffers survive when flanking powers are relatively weak, satisfied, skeptical that “offense is the best defense,” and chary of commitments to reckless allies and clients. Third, whether the major powers have agreed, implicitly or explicitly, on rules to regulate their rivalry in the buffer region may also affect the likelihood of a collision. Based on these findings, we are doubtful that Ukraine can serve as a reliable buffer.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Organization, International Security, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Ukraine
26. The Challenges Facing Modern Ukraine: Oligarchy
- Author:
- Serhiy Leshchenko
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Modern-day Ukraine faces myriad challenges; chief among them is corruption and its derivative, oligarchy. By and large, Russia’s aggression in Crimea and eastern Ukraine was enabled by oligarchy. For deoligarchization to occur, Ukraine must adopt a law regulating transparency in media ownership that would require oligarchs to disclose their holdings
- Topic:
- International Relations, Corruption, and Oligarchy
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Ukraine
27. The Challenge of Crimea for Russia’s Domestic and Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Sergei Markedonov
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Following a period of 22 years as a part of independent Ukraine, the Crimean peninsula entered into Russian custody in the form of two separate subjects of the Federation. This event constitutes a watershed in Russian domestic policy and relations between Russia and other countries and also poses a serious challenge to security throughout Europe. The Russian government would do well to forestall their emergence, not by exerting force, but rather by raising the quality of infrastructure and resolving other social problems. Thus the acquisition of Crimea, for Russia, is not the “end of history,” but the beginning of a complex process of integrating not merely the territory, but more importantly, the peninsula’s inhabitants.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Security, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea
28. How best to explain the Russia/Ukraine/EU crisis from different theoretical perspectives of international relations
- Author:
- Klaus Segbers
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Many attempts have been made to interpret and explain the Russian annexation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine. These signal events can be approached from different theoretical angles. The purpose of this short piece is to critically question the usefulness and appropriateness of state‐centered approaches that have been, and are yet, dominant and popular – most likely because they are so easy to apply intuitively.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Political Theory, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea
29. Ukraine’s relations with the EU and Russia: Why geopolitics and domestic reforms are linked
- Author:
- Iryna Solonenko
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper discusses Ukraine’s choice between maintain relations with the EU and Russia, a choice that is not merely a foreign policy choice or a choice between two integration models. Rather, it represents a choice between two normative orders or two different value systems. If Ukraine succeeds in pursuing the European model and breaking away from its tradition of a “captured state,” Russian leverage in Ukraine will also diminish. Therefore, undertaking this transformation is of crucial – if not existential – importance for Ukraine. The very survival of Ukraine’s statehood will depend on it.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
30. Russia and East Asia in the Context of the Ukrainian Crisis: "No" to Sanctions, "yes" to a New World Order
- Author:
- V. Petrovsky
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The system of international relations and the world order are being “tested by Ukraine,” the situation in which Russia’s relations with East Asia are not an exception but a confirmation of the process and an illustration of it. The U.S. Administration resolved to isolate Russia from the rest of the world urged the EU, the rest of the continent and also the East Asian and APR countries to introduce anti-Russian sanctions. In July 2014, at the height of the scandal around the Malaysian “Boeing” shot down over Eastern Ukraine, Peter Harrell, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Counter Threat Finance and Sanctions, travelled far and wide across the region to persuade top officials and leaders of the business communities to side with the United States.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, East Asia, and United States of America