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42. The Hashd Al-Shaabi: From heroes to … what exactly?
- Author:
- Emma Hesselink
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Now that IS has been defeated, at least territorially, governments, donors and the international community are investing in Iraq’s state building programmes both at national and local levels. However, Nineveh governorate, which suffered greatest damage and requires greatest attention, has been the scene of a highly divided security landscape since its liberation from IS. The chronic divisions between different actors such as Peshmerga and Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) are only worsened by the presence of the Hashd al-Shaabi and other non-state actors in the Disputed Territories. This brief provides an analysis of the risks posed by Hashd in Nineveh and offers recommendations into regaining a grip on the situation.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Islamic State, and State Building
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Baghdad
43. Enhancing chemical security in Kurdistan Region
- Author:
- Dlawer Ala'Aldeen and Goran Zangana
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Chemicals are widely used in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region (KRI) for various civilian purposes. Terrorist organizations have demonstrated their intention, know-how and capacity to convert chemicals of civilian use to chemical weapons. Without an urgent and comprehensive policy response, the KRI can face significant breaches in chemical security with immeasurable risks to the population and the environment. This report follows a special MERI workshop on chemical security, where major challenges were identified and a number of policy recommendation made.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, and Chemical Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan
44. US-Iran Showdown Begins in Iraq
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Ktaib Hizballah, with its political, military, economic and mafia-like aspects, is the most potent enemy of the US and its allies in Iraq today.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Governance, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
45. Stabilizing and Reconstructing Iraq: A Challenging Path Ahead
- Author:
- Michael Pregent and Jonas Parello-Plesner
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Iraq has militarily defeated the terrorist organization ISIS. This is the good news, which was also underlined at the recent Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS meeting in Kuwait on 13 February 2018 held in conjunction with the Kuwaiti Reconstruction Conference for Iraq. Yet the task ahead is as daunting as any military campaign. Now Iraq needs to rebuild and to heal its communities to foster an inclusive national identity. Challenges remain, from funding continuing stabilization efforts to the even larger resources needed for reconstruction over the coming years. According to announcements made at the Iraqi reconstruction conference in Kuwait, donors have pledged a decent amount, around $30 billion, although $88 billion was touted as the desired amount by the Iraqi Government. The Gulf countries and Turkey are becoming new large donors. The private sector also showed significant interest, although corruption is still a major concern, which the Iraqi government seeks to address. Continued stabilization is making it possible and desirable for internally displaced persons (IDPs) to return to their homes. Over 3 million Iraqis have returned, but more await in camps or temporary accommodations. Equally important is reconciliation. The UN is working with the Iraqi government to implement this at the national level. Baghdad and Erbil should pursue continued dialogue and concrete steps forward, including on the thorny issue of Kirkuk, in accordance with the Iraqi Constitution. Inclusiveness for Sunnis is important, both during reconstruction and before and after elections, as their disenfranchisement helped produce fertile soil for ISIS. Yet reconciliation should not be only top-down, and local community efforts undertaken by Iraqi civil society organizations are essential. Reconstruction funding should be tied to government reforms and more importantly, to tangible progress on reconciliation and political accommodation efforts. A novel aspect of the conference was the US administration’s new approach to burden-sharing in the aftermath of the ISIS presence in Iraq. President Trump wants to build infrastructure at home in the US and has tweeted dismissively about the $7 trillion the US has already spent in the Middle East. The United States will not disburse public funding for reconstruction, which is seen as nation-building, although it remains among the top contributors to humanitarian and stabilization assistance and will provide loans to private companies. Yet even such investments could pose additional risk for American companies because of sanctions against Iran, whose economic presence is felt in several important sectors. Instead, the US encouraged international institutions and others to step up, and Saudi Arabia, for example, contributed $1.5 billion. Leading up to the conference, the US facilitated a diplomatic reconciliation process between Iraq and Saudi Arabia for outstanding debts owed to Riyadh. The conference also gave Prime Minister Haider al Abadi a strong platform for brandishing his vision of a united Iraq, although some areas, particularly in the Sunni parts of the country, still feel excluded from reconstruction planning. Still, it is an open question whether that positive vision is enough to bring him another governing coalition following the Iraqi parliamentary elections in May. The continued presence of American military forces is increasingly a topic of contention in the elections.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Humanitarian Aid, Terrorism, Reconstruction, Radicalization, Islamic State, Humanitarian Intervention, and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Kuwait, and United States of America
46. “We Didn’t Think It Would Hit Us:” Understanding the Impact of Attacks on Schools in Syria
- Author:
- Save Syrian Schools
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
- Abstract:
- “Everything changed.” Such are the words of a young Syrian student speaking about the aftermath of an attack on his school that took the lives of his brother and friends and forever changed his. He now works in a tailor’s office because he could no longer bear going to school, carrying with him the memories of that day and the loved ones he lost. His story is just one among countless others of lives irrevocably changed as the result of attacks on schools and the loss, not only of loved ones, but of childhood, innocence, and opportunity. Worse, it is not just individual lives that have been changed. The widespread attacks on schools during the country’s brutal conflict have torn apart families, left behind shells of formerly vibrant communities, and altered the future of Syrian society. The report, “‘We Didn’t Think It Would Hit Us:’ Understanding the Impact of Attacks on Schools in Syria,” examines attacks on schools from multiple angles: from the legal implications of such attacks to the everyday impact on the lives of students, teachers, families, and society at large. The findings leave no doubt that the impacts are as numerous as they are vast and, at best, will take decades to meaningfully address. Of course, such a process cannot even really begin until the ongoing onslaught of violence against Syrian civilians stops and real action is taken to reverse the country’s rapid spiral from repression to peaceful protest to brutal armed conflict in response to these protests. The report has been years in the making, and the process of writing it is in itself notable. It began when 11 organizations—10 Syrian and one international—came together in search of a way to combat the growing fatigue beginning to afflict Syrian activists, as a result of documenting increasingly abhorrent and unending violations of human rights and against a backdrop unfulfilled promises of action and accountability. At the start of the conflict, these activists and other civil society actors coalesced quickly, creating transitional justice proposals and post-conflict road maps. They documented violations based on the belief that the conflict would end quickly and those responsible for human rights violations would be brought to justice swiftly. Of course, what has happened instead is that the conflict has only intensified with each passing year, becoming increasingly complex as more and more actors are introduced, many from outside Syria. Fatigued yet undeterred, after a series of dialogues and careful consultations with a wide set of civil society stakeholders, the 11 coauthoring organizations came together to work on a joint project—dubbed the Save Syrian Schools project—that would combine and amplify the different organizational strengths represented within the group. These capacities range from storytelling and advocacy, to large and highly credible networks of on-the-ground documenters and valuable archives of information. The result is a body of work that shines desperately needed light on the voices of Syrians affected in diverse ways by attacks on schools and calls attention to the glaring breaches of human rights that have occurred with regard to these acts of destruction. The driving force behind the year and a half of dedicated work is the desire to, first, end the violence and, second, ensure that the resulting harms are fully understood so that national and international actors alike are left with no choice but to address them through a nuanced and well-informed process of justice, acknowledgment, redress, and reform. The findings of the report are informed by several sources: the databases and archives of group members detailing individual attacks on schools and providing information on methods of attack, location, school names, casualty numbers, likely perpetrators, and so on; careful desk research with priority given to the research, publications, and other resources produced by partner organizations; and in-person field interviews and focus groups with students, teachers, school staff, parents, and local officials from communities affected by school attacks.
- Topic:
- Education, Terrorism, Transitional Justice, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
47. A Sense of Victory on Both Sides: A Recipe for Escalation in Gaza?
- Author:
- Amos Yadlin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Following the "March of Return" events led by Hamas on two turbulent Fridays at the border fence between Israel and the Gaza Strip, both sides declared victory. And in the case of such a blatantly asymmetric conflict between parties with opposing aims, both sides can indeed claim victory, precisely because they are conducting parallel maneuvers. Israel operates largely on a physical dimension (protecting its sovereign territory), while Hamas works mainly on the cognitive-political level. In a world of images, intensive information campaigns, and mass media (including fake news), a sense of victory on both sides could intensify the hostilities on the Gaza border and perhaps even beyond in the coming weeks. Israel must stress that it is defending a recognized international border; clarify the legality and proportionality of its use of live fire; expand its visual documentation of the events; update Arab countries about the facts and balance the pro-Hamas messages delivered in the Arab media; and prepare for an escalation of the conflict. Finally, while focused on the immediate challenge of mass demonstrations on the Gaza border, Israel must continue to address the underlying issue: the growing distress in Gaza and the collapse of its infrastructures will make it hard for Israel to continue managing the situation with relatively low political, military, and financial costs. Mid-May will be followed by the month of Ramadan and another scorching summer. Temporary success in containing the new challenge posed by Hamas will not defuse the social-economic-military time bomb ticking in the Strip.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Infrastructure, Conflict, and Hamas
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
48. Waking Up to the Iranian Threat
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- With the weakening of ISIS, the growing strength of Russia in Syria, and the continuing retraction of American involvement in the region – Iran apparently feels emboldened enough to escalate its confrontation with Israel.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, and ISIS
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America
49. Hamas’ Junior Partner, Iran’s Hidden Hand
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel must make it clear to Hamas that letting Islamic Jihad trigger another widespread escalation does not serve its interests or its continued existence.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Conflict, State Funding, and Hamas
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
50. Winning Hasbara Strategies
- Author:
- David M. Weinberg
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The deep “psychological asymmetry” employed by Hamas and Fatah as a strategic weapon against Israel is working. How to handle this? Here are five strategies, including this: Don’t be embarrassed by Israel’s strength. Admit to it. Flaunt it. Better shock-and-awe than shrink-and-whimper.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hamas
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Israel
51. Justice for the Victims: How Canada Should Manage Returning “Foreign Fighters”
- Author:
- Kyle Matthews
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- The U.S.-led international coalition has dislodged the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) from the cities it had occupied and controlled, namely Mosul and Raqqa. But while the group is weakened, it lives on and remains dangerous. Both the U.S. Department of Defense and the UN estimate that approximately 30,000 ISIS fighters remain in those countries. At the same time, a significant number of “foreign fighters” have fled Iraq and Syria. Numerous countries are struggling to find policy solutions with regards to managing the return of their nationals who had joined the group. The Canadian government has stated publicly that it favors taking a comprehensive approach of reintegrating returnees back into society. Very few foreign fighters who have returned to Canada have been prosecuted. Canada has both a moral and legal duty to seek justice and uphold the most basic human rights of vulnerable populations. ISIS and other jihadist groups engaged in systematic mass atrocities against minorities in Iraq and Syria, including Christians and Shiites. ISIS has demonstrated a particular disdain for the Yazidi minority in Iraq, and the Canadian government has recognized the group’s crimes against the Yazidis as genocide. As a State Party to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court and a signatory of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, Canada has a responsibility to uphold these international legal conventions when formulating carefully crafted policy responses that deal with returning foreign fighters. Canada should attempt to prosecute its nationals in domestic courts using the Crimes Against Humanity and War Crimes Act. Open trials can serve as means by which to lay bare ISIS’ narrative and to help counter violent extremism and future atrocities. They can also serve as a deterrent and warning to other Canadians who might try to join ISIS as it mutates and moves to other countries in the world, such as Libya, Afghanistan, Egypt, the Philippines, Pakistan, or heaven forbid, in Mali where Canadian peacekeepers have recently been deployed. If Canada truly stands for multiculturalism, pluralism, the rule of law, global justice, human rights, and the liberal international order, then we must stand firm and take a principled stand to prosecute those who have fought under the ISIS banner. That includes our own citizens.
- Topic:
- Crime, Human Rights, Terrorism, Islamic State, Justice, and Foreign Fighters
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Canada, Syria, North America, and United States of America
52. ‘Mowing the grass’ in Gaza
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Because ending terrorism from Gaza is unrealistic, Israel has wisely adopted a strategy of attrition. If there is soon to be a large-scale ground operation, conquering the whole Strip should not be the goal.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and Counter-terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
53. After Ahvaz: Iran’s Regime Faces the Consequences of its Subversive Campaigns
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- While Israel should steer away from overt identification with internal challengers in Iran, this is the time to urge the US. and other like-inded nations to ratchet up the pressure on the regime, explaining to the Iranian people the growing cost of their leaders’ ambitions.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Hegemony, ISIL, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt
54. Hamas’ Cyber Activity against Israel
- Author:
- Omer Dostri
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Although Hamas’ cyber capabilities do not now constitute a serious threat to Israel, this reality can quickly change in view of the rapid pace of technological progress.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Terrorism, Cybersecurity, Conflict, and Hamas
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
55. Restore Deterrence, but Bet on Mediation
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Iran and the smaller terrorist groups in Gaza want a full-scale war with Israel. Hamas does not. Israel should land a decisive, well-defined blow but back Egyptian efforts to broker a cease-fire.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Terrorism, Conflict, and Hamas
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt
56. A draw with Hamas is strategically unsatisfactory
- Author:
- David M. Weinberg
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Reducing enemy capabilities and ambitions in Gaza requires Israeli military readiness and government willingness to use force intermittently, while maintaining a healthy and resilient Israeli home front.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hamas
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
57. The Lebanese Armed Forces: Hezbollah’s Collaborator
- Author:
- Yossi Mansharof
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The Lebanese army should be treated as a hostile entity, its camouflage should be stripped away, and the American administration should be supplied with conclusive evidence of the multi-faceted cooperation between it and Hezbollah.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Hezbollah, Armed Conflict, and State Sponsored Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
58. In the Middle East, You Win With Fear
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Only a crushing and devastating blow to Hamas will pave the way for a truce that would not be a victory for the terrorists.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Hamas, and Fear
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
59. The Threat is Real
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The challenge now is how to make it clear to the Hamas leadership that it should not believe is own supercilious words.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, and Hamas
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
60. On Hezbollah’s Intention to Seize Control of the Economic and Monetary Systems in Lebanon
- Author:
- Elisheva Simon
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Hezbollah’s leadership has come to realize that harsher US sanctions pose a serious threat to the revolutionary regime in Tehran. It will become increasingly difficult for the regime to finance the full spectrum of its revolutionary ambitions. Hezbollah has therefore had to focus on securing its own sources of funding and providing employment for its members and followers through ever-deeper engagement in Lebanon’s economic and financial spheres of activity.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Hezbollah, Regional Economy, and State Sponsored Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon