Content Type: Working Paper / Political Geography: Middle East / Topic: International Cooperation

1. Hydrodiplomacy and the Food, Water and Energy Nexus: A holistic approach for transboundary cooperation and peace

Author:: Fadi Comair
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The rapid social and economic development in the world is leading to increased levels of water stress that point to potential water crises. As the most vital and strategic of natural resources, water can serve as an instrument of domination or of cooperation. Given the presence of key geopolitical concerns in the Near East, regional hydro-diplomatic cooperation is necessary to ensure fair sharing of the resource and to avoid additional tensions and conflict. Nine of the seventeen EMME countries are below the absolute water scarcity threshold of 500 m3/year per capita, including all six countries in the Gulf region, Jordan and Palestine. Those countries that share major transboundary basins in the EMME region such as the Nile, Jordan and Tigris-Euphrates basins are subject to multiple challenges which include unilateral water resources management, water scarcity, and environmental degradation leading to food insecurity. Hydrodiplomacy is a tool for applying integrated water resource management at a national and transboundary level in accordance with a cooperative model seeking peace among riparian countries. Multiple UN agencies contribute to bringing riparian countries together with a view to fostering dialogue and the sharing of information on water management and transboundary cooperation.
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Water, Food, Geopolitics, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe and Middle East

2. The Ukraine Standoff as a Harbinger of Broader Shifts in the Global Order

Author:: Daniel Rakov
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Global powers might find it more challenging to reach a consensus on the Middle East than before. This makes it more critical for Israel to get separate understandings or develop new partnerships both globally and regionally.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Hegemony, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

3. Houthi/Iranian attacks on UAE a response to losses on the Yemen battlefield

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Incensed by recent government gains in Yemen, the Iranians seek to intimidate the UAE into reversing course. At this juncture, it is therefore vital that both the US and Israel offer support for the UAE’s cause.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Governance, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Yemen, North America, United States of America, Gulf Nations, and UAE

4. Will US-Israel ties withstand possible strains due to the Iranian and Palestinian issues?

Author:: Eytan Gilboa
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Despite former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s claim to a 40-year friendship with President Joe Biden, the latter preferred the new government headed by Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Leadership, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

5. The Iranian-Russian-Turkish Summit in Tehran

Author:: Raz Zimmt, Gallia Lindenstrauss, Bat Chen Druyan Feldman, and Arkady Mil-Man
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The three-way summit between Presidents Raisi, Putin, and Erdogan intended to present a unified front against the Western axis, which imposes various levels of sanctions on the three states. But despite the cordial photos and warm handshakes, there are serious disputes between Tehran, Moscow, and Ankara. They are rivals no less than they are partners, and it is doubtful whether their meeting will lead to any substantive gains
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, and Middle East

6. US Relations with Arab Gulf States: A Passing Crisis?

Author:: Yoel Guzansky and Eldad Shavit
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: After US–Saudi relations deteriorated when Biden entered the White House, relations between the two countries have recently improved, with reports of a possible visit by the US president to Riyadh. What are the reasons for the rapprochement trend, and how can it affect Israel?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

7. A Gateway to Africa? Economic Opportunities in Israel-Morocco Relations

Author:: Morr Link
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Since renewing diplomatic relations between Jerusalem and Rabat, the scope of trade indeed has grown between the two countries, but the full potential still has not been realized. How can the economic cooperation be improved, which also entails many policy opportunities for both Israel and Morocco?
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Morocco

8. Iraq-Gulf Relations: An Anchor for Stability and Restraining Iranian Involvement in the Region?

Author:: Yoel Guzansky and Yaron Schneider
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: While weathering a political crisis, Iraq is now at a crossroads regarding the future of the state. In tandem, neighboring Sunni states, led by Saudi Arabia, are moving closer to Baghdad. What are the reasons for this development, and how is it likely to affect the Middle East, Iran’s expansion in the area, and Israel?
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, Economic Stability, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

9. The Gulf Countries and Turkey: (Re-)Drawing the Map of Alliances in the Middle East

Author:: Yoel Guzansky and Gallia Lindenstrauss
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: After a decade of hostility, and against the background of Turkey’s weak economic situation and Iran’s expanded regional presence, there is a significant improvement in the relations between Ankara and Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. What opportunities might this change bring for the region, and how might this affect Israel’s relations with Turkey and with the Gulf countries?
Topic:: International Cooperation, Alliance, Strategic Interests, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

10. MF Dollars for Dictators? The Allocation of SDR to Moderate and Isolated Countries

Author:: Haggy Etkes
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: “The International Monetary Fund assisted radical regimes, including the Russian government and the Taliban in Afghanistan”: This claim was made given the allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) by the IMF to states in the region. Is there truth to this charge?
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, Finance, and IMF
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, and Middle East

11. The War in Ukraine and Strategic Hedging by Arab Countries

Author:: Yoel Guzansky
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The war in Ukraine has accelerated the strategic hedging by Arab states, even at the risk of (temporarily?) harming their relations with the United States. Does this policy overreach its mark, and will the United States ultimately want to settle the score with these states? How does this foreign policy redesign the Arab sphere?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East

12. The Akkuyu NPP and Russian-Turkish Nuclear Cooperation: Asymmetries and risks

Author:: Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Eliza Gheorghe
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: By ratifying the 2016 Paris Agreement, Turkey has vowed to reduce the use of fossil fuels and promote clean and renewable energy production. The Turkish government has embraced nuclear energy as a solution to cutting carbon dioxide emissions. Turkey’s first nuclear power plant, Akkuyu NPP, is being built by Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy corporation, Rosatom, under a Build-Own-Operate contract, the first of its kind in the world. The Akkuyu NPP will reinforce Turkey’s dependence on Russia for the next six decades. The Akkuyu NPP presents considerable environmental risks for the whole Eastern Mediterranean.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Nuclear Energy, and Asymmetric Relations
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, and Middle East

13. What is the agenda for the Eastern Mediterranean?

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: A more coherent common foreign policy agenda is needed to enhance the strategic significance of the Athens-Jerusalem-Nicosia partnership.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Peace
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

14. Europol-Israel Police Operational Agreement: Enhanced cooperation with EU in combatting crime and terrorism

Author:: Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: The Israeli Police and Europol, the European Union’s police agency, have been conducting negotiations over an operational agreement for several years. In September there was signing of end of negotiations, but in December the Council of the European Union decided to re-open the talks. In a global world where crime and terrorism cross borders, countries need to strengthen cooperation among themselves. Such inter-police cooperation takes on a unique form in the EU. The operational agreement between Israel’s Police and Europol can have considerable importance in contributing to the parties’ ability to deal with terror and crime. This paper will review Europol, its cooperation with Israel’s police and other enforcement agencies, including the negotiated agreement, the motivations for upgrading relations with Israel and the benefits and challenges of doing so.
Topic:: Crime, International Cooperation, Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Police, and Europol
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

15. Turkish-Russian Relations: A Puzzle that Shakes the Middle East

Author:: Remi Daniel
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In this issue of Turkeyscope, Remi Daniel discusses several contemporary trends in the Russian-Turkish relationship. The dynamics of competition and cooperation between these two states affect the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Central Asia and North Africa in profound ways.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Russia, Central Asia, Turkey, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and North Africa

16. Russia or the West – Which Should Jerusalem Choose?

Author:: Daniel Rakov
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The Israeli government has not publicly expressed a position regarding the gathering of Russian forces on the Ukrainian border. Still, a renewed war between Russia and Ukraine could make it challenging to choose between its commitment to its Western allies and its important relationship with Russia.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Israel

17. The time is ripe for an Israeli-Moroccan honeymoon, though it might not last forever

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: If Israel fails to halt Iran’s nuclear progress, the pro-Israel trend in the region will disappear.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Morocco

18. Israel, the US, and the Iranian Nuclear project – back to basics

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: It is not in America’s interest for Israel to be perceived as an obedient lap dog. On the contrary, keeping Israel’s options open, or even enhancing them, will ultimately prove to be of value to the US.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Alliance, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

19. Israel and the New ‘Old Europe’

Author:: Emmanuel Navon
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The new German government and the upcoming elections in France create challenges and opportunities for Israel’s foreign policy, which must adapt to Europe’s evolving political map.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Governance, and Elections
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and Israel

20. Military Diplomacy as a National Security Asset: Israel’s Widening Array of Joint Exercises

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The Blue Flag 2021 air force exercise was the largest and most significant since the exercise series began in 2013.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Alliance, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

21. Realpolitik Should Guide Israeli-Russian Relations

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: When Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett this week meets Russian President Putin for the first time, Bennett must use a realpolitik language.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Governance, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Israel

22. Securing the Future of the Israel-US Special Relationship

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: With the help of American Jewry, a sturdy foundation of support for Israel-US ties needs to be rebuilt based upon traditional bipartisan commitment. This will enable Israel to engage effectively with the Biden Administration and Congress on the Iranian challenge.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Polarization
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

23. The ICC’s folly also hurts the Palestinians

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: If the International Criminal Court of Justice conducted a fair investigation into the ongoing conflict, it would see that Hamas terrorists are committing double war crimes daily.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Terrorism, Conflict, and International Criminal Court (ICC)
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

24. Don’t Interfere, Integrate: China Proposes (Yet Another) Middle East Peace Initiative

Author:: Tuvia Gering
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel should work with China so that its initiative doesn’t interfere with the Abraham Accords, and should seek to capitalize on common denominators between Beijing and Washington.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Peace
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

25. Israel, help India fight COVID-19

Author:: Oshrit Birvadker
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The world is watching India’s coronavirus catastrophe, and it could use any lifeline at this point. Israel could now help this Asiatic power overcome one of the most serious crises in its history.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East, India, Israel, and Asia

26. What does Russian Mideast-related diplomatic activity signify?

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: A flurry of Middle East-related Russian diplomatic activity is noteworthy because it reflects Moscow’s multi-faceted approach to the region.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Middle East

27. The Significance of Events in Yemen for the Mideast Strategic Equation

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The US decision to withdraw support from the battle against the Houtis in Yemen signals a change of direction away from staunch backing of Western allies in the contest with Iran, and towards an attempt at “balancing” between rival regional powers, along the lines attempted by the Obama Administration.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Hegemony, Conflict, Regionalism, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

28. America Should Not Make the Mistake of Adopting the Arab Interpretation of UN Resolution 242

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Washington will bury any chance for peace if it reverts to the “Everybody Knows Paradigm” which demands Israeli withdrawal to the 1949 armistice lines
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

29. Supporting Syrian Refugees amidst Lebanon’s Crises

Author:: Will Todman
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Lebanon is in freefall amid numerous crises. The currency has collapsed, food prices have quadrupled in a year, and Covid-19 cases continue to rise after one of the strictest lockdowns in the world. More than half of Lebanese households now live below the poverty line and the government will soon be forced to end subsidies on basic goods. The country is approaching a national humanitarian emergency and widespread food insecurity. Syrian refugees are especially vulnerable because the Lebanese government has curtailed their rights and restricted international support for them. More than 90 percent of Syrians in Lebanon now live in extreme poverty. However, the prospect of any imminent, voluntary return of large numbers of refugees to Syria remains distant. Numerous surveys with refugees confirm that they do not feel able to return to Syria, despite worsening conditions in Lebanon. Lebanese are increasingly in need of economic support and feel ignored by the government and aid organisations. In this context, Lebanese leaders’ attempts to scapegoat refugees are gaining traction. Scapegoating refugees not only allows the political class to delay critical reforms but has also resulted in increasing inter-communal violence. As Lebanon’s freefall continues, the risk of more widespread violence increases. Donors face a dilemma in how best to respond to the crises. The Lebanese political elite have steadfastly refused to implement necessary economic reforms to avoid collapse and have proved to be unsuitable partners for aid operations. To circumvent the government, donors have increased their support to local leaders in the hope that it can help create a more permissive environment for refugees with channelled support through local NGOs. Humanitarians are now trying to meet the needs of vulnerable Lebanese, Syrian refugees, Palestinian refugees, and migrant workers in different humanitarian responses. Aid coordination is becoming a gargantuan task. Shifting to a country-wide or “Whole of Lebanon” response would better streamline the humanitarian response and ensure refugees and vulnerable Lebanese are treated equitably. Donors have little appetite for such an approach, but it could soon be the only viable option. Interviews with international donors revealed a viewpoint that the United States is not capitalising on its potential influence on the refugee file in Lebanon. To maximise the United States’ potential to improve conditions for vulnerable Lebanese and Syrians, it must increase its participation in donor discussions in Beirut and devote more political capital to the issue. The United States and other donors should use this political capital to take advantage of new openings to build the foundations of sustainable development for all. The changing context has created a few, though limited, opportunities to push for programs that are primarily framed as aiding Lebanese yet include refugees.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Refugees, NGOs, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

30. The Gulf States and Israel after the Abraham Accords

Author:: Fatiha Dazi-Heni
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Following Israel’s signing of the Abraham Accords with the UAE and Bahrain, many questions arise as to the impact that the Accords will have on the different GCC countries. This paper seeks to outline the historical context surrounding the accords and provide an analysis of the way the different GCC countries have so far approached this new “normalization” of relations with Israel.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations

31. Iraqi Kurdistan: Priority issues for international mediation

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: In the last decade, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) has seen many moments of crisis – budget cuts, Daesh’s assault on Erbil, the halving of oil prices (twice!) and armed conflict with the Iraqi government over Kirkuk. Today’s situation feels different and arguably worse than these episodes: there’s COVID, a deep oil recession in Baghdad and Kurdistan, intensifying tensions with Turkey and Iran, and an unpleasant undercurrent of resentment against the Kurds among many of the MPs in the Baghdad parliament. What makes this moment uniquely dangerous, however, is the near-breakdown of cooperation between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). Iraq’s Kurds have shown that they can weather any storm when they pull together as a people. The KRI’s international partners tend to support the Iraqi Kurds more effectively when the two parties work in harmony, but often back away when they cannot identify a cohesive counterparty to deal with in the KRI. International memories of the intra-Kurdish civil war in the 1990s undermined the Kurdish cause in Iraq in the 2000s, when the Kurds’ greatest opportunity for self-governance lay before them. Looking forward, it is clear that the futures of Iraq and the KRI are linked. If Baghdad’s economy and currency collapses, so does Kurdistan’s. If the Kurdish people starve, the blame will fall on Baghdad. If the Islamic State returns, it will emerge first in the strip of disputed territories between federal Iraq and the KRI. The success of U.S. policy in Iraq is the success of both the fifteen provinces of federal Iraq and the Kurdistan Region, not one or the other. The U.S.-Iraq strategic dialogue will continue in the late summer, hopefully including a visit of the Iraqi leadership to Washington DC. This presents an opportunity to re-energize the role of the U.S. and international partners in the issues facing the KRI. It is important to stress the importance of a multilateral mission to support intra-KRI cohesion and Baghdad-KRI relations because America does not have all the answers on Kurdistan, nor does it tend to focus enough attention there. U.S. power and leadership are most effective when combined with the perceptive insights and good instincts of many other partners on Kurdistan, such as the French, British, and Canadians, to name just a few. There is an argument that the U.S.-Iraq Strategic Framework Agreement should either have a specific working group or committee on KRI issues (or on decentralization more generally), or a cross-cutting mechanism that ensures the KRI is worked into each of the security, political, economic and energy working groups. The list of topics that require persistent attention is quite long. Most important, the KDP and PUK need to be led towards a de-escalation that will allow the region to speak with one cohesive voice in Baghdad and with international partners. This is a foundational issue that affects all the other issues the KRI faces. An adversarial relationship between the two parties undermines everything that is attempted in the KRI and is deeply off-putting for international partners and potential investors. It can result in armed standoffs, affecting key industries like LPG trucking, or in security crises such as the Zina Warte armed confrontation between KDP and PUK Peshmerga in mid-March 2020. Almost nothing – from oil and gas investment to counter-terrorism to fighting COVID to negotiations with Baghdad – works as well as it should due to the KDP-PUK schism. It would be magical thinking to imagine that the two parties can easily reconcile. Even so, the U.S. and its various partners should prioritize efforts to get the powerful leaders in the same room to hammer out a minimal level of cooperation and start a dialogue, however stilted or tense at the outset. The U.S. and other internationals also need to help Baghdad and the KRI complete the promising steps that have been taken on political, security and economic cooperation. The Kurds worked well with former premier Adel Abdul-Mahdi’s government in Baghdad, and they have overcome their initial caution towards a change in Baghdad to support the new Prime Minister Mustapha al-Kadhimi, another old friend. For the Kurds, however, the relationship will be almost solely judged on what it delivers in terms of budget support. Having watched six Iraqi prime ministers negotiate and renegotiate budget deals with the Kurds every year for over a decade, the U.S. is intimately familiar with every possible configuration of give and take – more so than the Iraqi and Kurdish leaders themselves. What has always been clear is that politics trump economics in such discussions: typically, the solution is political and the numbers and formulas get fudged to fit the required compromise. This is why, for the remainder of 2020, Kurdistan will probably keep selling its oil and gathering customs revenue while Baghdad will provide a reduced top-up to the Kurdish exchequer each month, which is basically what has been happening for the last two years. A lot of discussion tends to end up right back where the parties began. This pattern of recurrent budget crises is not sustainable for two reasons. First, the annual showdown complicates an already fraught budgeting process and Iraqi MPs are becoming more hostile to the KRI economy every time the cycle is undertaken. Second, the KDP and PUK are increasingly fighting over the revenue-sharing mechanism, with Sulaymaniyah seeking more direct transfers from Baghdad or other guarantees of a fair share. The U.S. and its international partners need to back a multi-year arrangement that has buy-in at the highest levels: the Iraqi Prime Minister, speaking for a sizable bloc in Iraq’s body politic, and key leaders within the KDP and PUK. This is yet another reason why the two parties must be able to sit down together at the highest political levels. The sweet spot for a Baghdad-KRI budget deal would seem to be about $800mn per month, requiring the KDP and PUK to agree on a no-blame, non-politicized and permanent reduction of KRI obligations (salaries, social services and allowances) by about 30%. The U.S. and other internationals need to put strong and well-intentioned pressure on the KRI to appoint an empowered and dedicated Minister of Natural Resources to salvage investor confidence in the energy sector, which will serve as a signpost for the KRI’s future non-oil investors. A quick win for Baghdad-KDP-PUK cooperation may be possible in the realm of counter-terrorism. The Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service, the KDP-led Counterterrorism Department (CTD) and the PUK-led Counter-Terrorism Group (CTG) are three highly professional services that work closely with the international Coalition against Daesh. They have worked together before and can work in the disputed areas with relative ease now. The creation of joint counter-terrorism coordination centers should initially focus on these elite units and their related intelligence arms, not necessarily the “big military” units like the Iraqi Army, Federal Police and Peshmerga. One important symbol for Baghdad-KRI cooperation could be an investment in the deployment, for short periods, of some Iraqi Air Force F-16 aircraft to the airports in Erbil and Sulaymaniyah. These fighter-bombers were notoriously viewed as a stick that Baghdad might use against the Kurds, but today the F-16 fleet and its American technicians are struggling to stay in service as Iran-backed militias surround their operating base at Balad. Perhaps an out-of-the-box idea might be to cycle a fragment of the F-16 fleet through the safe operating environments of Erbil and Sulaymaniyah, as the Italian Air Force did with a small complement of Eurofighters during the war against Daesh. The common thread in all these options is a desire to “go big” in the Baghdad-KDP-PUK relationship, and for international players to encourage and support new thinking. The Kurdistan Region is currently cycling downwards, with less stability and less attractiveness as an investment environment, largely because Kurdish leaders are allowing themselves to be divided by personality politics. The U.S. intervention in Iraq in 1991 helped to free the Iraqi Kurds and the intervention in 2003 saw the U.S. ask those same Kurds to rejoin Iraq on the basis of U.S. guarantees. It is time to begin to make good on those guarantees. U.S. intervention transformed Iraq from a dictatorship to a democracy (imperfect, like all democracies), but an equally great transformation would be to help create an Iraqi state at peace with all of its components, first and foremost its Kurdish population. That moment can and should start in earnest now.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Governance, Peace, and Mediation
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan

32. Iran's Influence in the Middle East

Author:: Jadranka Polovic
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: The Middle East as one of the most heterogeneous and politically conflicting regions in the world and has long been at the center of international interest. Faced with sectarian wars and comprehensive social crises for decades the Middle East, due to its geostrategic importance and especially the imperative of controlling the region’s vast energy resources, has once again become a battle ground for major powers whose interests affect the concentration of participants in the region. The competition between global powers and growing influence of Russia and China, who undermine the US power and European Union’s influence and also undermine established alliances in the Middle East, undoubtedly require a rethinking of Western strategies for the region. A series of geopolitical challenges, especially after September 11 attacks against the United States, as a result of military interventions and civil wars (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria) and uprisings (Arab Spring) and thus the collapsed regional order, confronted the international community with the changing nature of security threats, as well as with the new balance of power of regional and international actors in the Middle East. Among the many aspects of the Middle East conflicts, the fundamental issue of regional security today is the Sunni-Shiite conflict, which has since the invasion of Iraq in 2003 directly defined the approaches and policies of great powers and significantly changed regional dynamics. In this context, Iran’s role is particularly significant. Namely, over the last two decades, Iran has consolidated its goals in the Persian Gulf and strategically expanded its influence to other countries in the Middle East, primarily Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. The growing influence of Shiite Iran, and its close relations with Shiite communities in the region with which it forms a strategic coalition, have become a key geopolitical challenge for the international community.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Natural Resources, and Hegemony
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Asia, North America, and United States of America

33. China’s Alternative Vision for Gulf Security

Author:: Tuvia Gering
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Trump’s Middle East peace plan and the recent Israel-Arab peace accords limit Chinese influence in the region. Countering this, China is advancing a collective security concept for the region based on the JCPOA. The US and Israel must stymie this Chinese gambit and reinforce the Abraham Accords.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Peace, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

34. China’s View of the Abraham Accords

Author:: Tuvia Gering
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: China aims to play a more proactive role in the Middle East, maintaining cordial relations with all rival countries. Beijing attaches great importance to its ties with Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Egypt, and therefore has welcomed the Abraham Accords (albeit in lukewarm fashion, because of tensions with the Trump administration).
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Hegemony, Peace, and Intervention
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, and Asia

35. Tempered Euphoria on the UAE-Israel Agreement

Author:: Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The deal is a clear win for Israel, the UAE and the US. Netanyahu gets a face-saving, significant reward for not doing something (annexation) he was not going to be able to do anyway in the current political/diplomatic context.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Leadership, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, United States of America, and UAE

36. The Tensions between Assad and Iran Present an Opportunity in Syria

Author:: Eran Lerman, Aiman Mansour, and Micky Aharonson
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel and the US may have an opportunity to incentivize Assad and Putin to cooperate in constraining Iran’s presence in Syria.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America

37. Reject Iran’s Request for an IMF Loan

Author:: Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Under the pretext of separation between regime and people, Iran seeks $5 billion in IMF emergency funding to fight COVID-19. This would significantly undermine the pressure on Iran being applied by US sanctions, and therefore the loan should be denied.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Sanctions, Pandemic, IMF, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

38. Phased Territorial Implementation of the Trump Peace Plan

Author:: Eran Lerman and Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The Trump Plan is the most realistic route for progress towards the goal of “two states for two peoples.” Therefore, the Israeli national unity government should embrace the Trump plan in its entirety, including negotiations towards establishment of a Palestinian state, and at the same time act (in the first stage) to apply Israeli law to the Jordan Valley and strategically significant areas in the Jerusalem envelope, such as Maaleh Adumim and Gush Etzion. An Israeli consensus exists regarding these areas.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

39. Jordan will not impede the US peace plan

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: It is convenient for Amman to have Israel retain security control over the Jordan Valley. And this is a rare opportunity to advance and potentially realize Israel’s security needs for a cemented border in the east with the support of the world’s top superpower.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East and Jordan

40. Israel Shouldn’t Draw Fixed Lines Between Itself and China

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The Jewish state’s relationship with the U.S. is stronger for resting on an informal basis; replacing it with a formal alliance would do no good and only anger the world’s other major power.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Conflict, Peace, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

41. The Impact of COVID-19 on Russia’s Middle East and Syria Policies

Author:: Leonid Isaev and Andrey Sakharov
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: May 3 rd, Russia’s COVID-19 infection rate resembled that of the United Kingdom. This situation has the potential to significantly impact the country’s financial situation, influencing the country’s foreign policy toward the Middle East. By the beginning of the lock-down period, the most optimistic forecasts for 2020 predicted a fall in the Russian economy by 4-6% of GDP.1 However, after four weeks of confinement, a decline of 6-8% was considered to be the most positive scenario, provided that it is possible to avoid a second wave for the epidemic in the autumn as predicted by the Higher School of Economics forecast. The Russian situation is complicated by the fact that the outbreak of COVID-19 coincided with the dramatic decline in oil and gas prices. The federal budget’s breakeven price for 2020 was set at $42.4 per barrel.3 However, prices by the end of March and the beginning of April went significantly lower. This means that Russia may not be able to match the predicted government spending for 2020. Moreover, its leadership may not be able to spend money as generously to advance projects serving the country’s foreign policy. Moscow, short on revenue, will unlikely take foreign policy and domestic political adventures. Foreign policy projects, primarily those that require significant budgetary expenditures in the Middle East and specifically in Syria, will be frozen. A passive Russian international engagement is expected to dominate until the end of 2020. The exception to this policy will be when a response is unavoidable. Domestic policy is likely to be just as reactive. The baseline will likely be to maintain the current state of affairs and absorb any shocks to stability given the scarcity of financial resources.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria

42. The Battle for the Tribes in Northeast Syria

Author:: Nicholas Heras
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Northeast Syria (NES) is fragmented under the control of different powers that are all seeking to gain the support of the local Arab tribes. Those seeking to upset the status quo include the Assad regime and its allies (Russia and Iran), Turkey and its Syrian rebel proxies, and ISIS —all seeking disruption with different motivations, yet working side by side. Those seeking to maintain the status quo include the U.S.-led Coalition, the Autonomous Administration of Northeast Syria (AANES), and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Often, earning the support and alliance of the tribes is a transactional process whereby the tribes seek direct financial support and community investment, employment opportunities, military support, and autonomy to run their own affairs. Currently, most local tribal groups are calculating that a tenuous U.S.-protected order in northeast Syria provides better security and provisions than the alternatives from the Assad regime and its allies, or by Turkey and its Syrian rebel proxies. However, ISIS remains a threat to all the powers involved in northeast Syria, and it is the major spoiler seeking to create the conditions for a return to the old order which was established under ISIS’s territorial Caliphate from 2014-2019.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

43. Iranian Public Opinion under “Maximum Pressure”

Author:: Nancy Gallagher, Ebrahim Mohseni, and Clay Ramsay
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:: The Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) has been conducting in- depth surveys of Iranian public opinion on nuclear policy, regional security, economics, domestic politics, and other topics since the summer of 2014. Each survey includes a combination of trend-line questions, some going as far back as 2006, and new questions written to assess and inform current policy debates. This report covers findings from three surveys fielded in May, August, and early October 2019 to evaluate how the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign is affecting public opinion in Iran. The United States withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018, and began re-imposing sanctions on Iran that the Obama administration had lifted under the terms of the 2015 agreement it had negotiated with Iran, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China. In the fall of 2018, it blacklisted hundreds of Iranian entities and threatened to impose secondary sanctions on anyone who did business with them. In spring of 2019, it tried to prevent Iran from getting any revenue from oil sales, its main export, by ending exemptions for key customers. In the summer of 2019, it tightened constraints on Iran’s access to the international financial system, including channels that had been used to pay for medicines and other humanitarian goods that were officially exempted from earlier sanctions. It also sanctioned Iran’s foreign minister, complicating his ability to interact with U.S. officials, experts, and media figures. The Trump administration’s stated objective is to keep imposing more sanctions until Iran acquiesces to a long list of U.S. demands articulated by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The original twelve points include the types of restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program that the government rejected during previous negotiations and that the Iranian public has consistently opposed. It also includes stopping development of nuclear-capable missiles, ending support for various groups throughout the Middle East, halting cyberattacks and other threatening activities, and releasing all U.S. and allied detainees. Pompeo subsequently added other demands related to civil liberties in Iran. The Iranian public enthusiastically supported the JCPOA when it was first signed, partly due to unrealistic expectations about how much and how quickly economic benefits would materialize. After the International Atomic Energy Agency certified in January 2016 that Iran had met all of its nuclear obligations and implementation of sanctions relief began, foreign companies were slow to ramp up permissible trade with Iran or to make major investments there before they knew how the next U.S. president would view the JCPOA. By the end of the Obama administration few Iranians said that they had seen any economic benefits from the deal and most lacked confidence that the other signatories would uphold their obligations. But a solid majority of Iranians (55%) still approved of the agreement.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

44. Dangerous Liaisons: Russian Cooperation with Iran in Syria

Author:: Seth G. Jones, Nicholas Harrington, and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: As tensions escalate between the United States and Iran in the Middle East, Russia is engaged in covert and overt cooperation with Iran in ways that undermine U.S. national security interests. This analysis of commercial satellite imagery at Tiyas Airbase in Syria indicates the scope and proximity of Russian and Iranian military ties. If Washington wants to contain Tehran and prevent further Iranian expansion, U.S. policymakers will need to increase pressure on Moscow to curb Tehran’s activities in countries like Syria.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Intelligence, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

45. Achilles’ Heel: Adding Resilience to NATO’s Fragile Missile Shield

Author:: Ian Williams
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Tensions with Iran are once again increasing. The slow implosion of the nuclear accord, Iran’s harassment of cargo ships, and the downing of a U.S. unmanned aircraft have made plain the risk of conflict between Iran and the United States. The dispute should also draw attention to the questionable preparedness of the United States and its allies to fight a war with Iran on short notice and deal with that war’s blowback across the Middle East and Europe. Regional missile defense architectures are an important part of that preparedness. Iran has the largest and most diverse supply of ballistic missiles in the Middle East region, and Tehran has shown an ability and willingness to use them in combat operations.1 Iran is also learning to employ other kinds of aerial threats, such as long-range cruise missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). In a conflict with Iran, U.S. and allied forces would likely face a wide spectrum of air and missile threats. The biggest U.S. investment in Iran-centric missile defenses has been the European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA). EPAA is a phased buildup of U.S. missile defense assets in and around Europe to deter and, if necessary, limit damage from an Iranian missile attack on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Yet the EPAA architecture is heavily dependent on the nominal, unencumbered performance of a single radar deployed relatively close to Iran. This produces a single point of failure susceptible to malfunction or operator error. It also presents an Achilles’ heel that a determined or imaginative adversary could exploit. Iran certainly fits both descriptors. In 1958, strategist Albert Wohlstetter wrote that U.S. confidence in its nuclear second-strike ability was achieved only by “ignoring the full range of sensible enemy plans.”2 This same critical judgment should be applied to confidence in the EPAA as currently configured. Inasmuch as a sensible adversary such as Iran relies upon its missile forces to achieve its defense goals, it should be credited with the foresight to target single points of failure that would preclude the effective application of that missile force. Fortunately, there are practical steps that NATO and the United States can take to further adapt EPAA for greater resiliency. Upgrades to existing radars, the integration of allied radars into the missile defense mission, and the addition of air and space-based sensors would do much to improve EPAA’s capability and survivability, improving U.S. and NATO preparedness for an unexpected Middle East conflict.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Missile Defense
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, North Atlantic, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

46. Obama's Road to Cairo: The President’s Rhetorical Journey, 2008–2009

Author:: Nils Lukacs
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: Ten years ago, President Barack Obama’s unprecedented address to the Muslim world from Cairo was hailed as a landmark in US–Middle Eastern relations and described by contemporary observers as a historical break in US foreign policy in the region. Yet it soon became clear that the president’s vision for a “new beginning based on mutual interest and mutual respect” would face many practical constraints. Analysing the thematic and rhetorical development of Obama’s speeches during the formative period between summer 2008 and 2009, as well as the public and academic perception of and reaction to these moments, the paper examines the underlying interests and motivations for the president’s foreign policy approach in the Middle East. It argues that despite the low priority given to foreign policy issues during the economic crisis occurring at the time, the key pillars of Obama’s ambitious vision for the Middle East were rooted in pronounced US interests as well as the president’s personal convictions, rather than opportunistic calculations. It thus counters retrospective post-2011 criticism which argues that Obama’s words were never meant to be put into practice. The study contributes to the establishment of a solid empirical and conceptual base for further research on the United States’ foreign policy in the Middle East under the Obama administration.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

47. Russia and China in the Middle East: Playing their best cards

Author:: Marco Siddi and Marcin Kaczmarski
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Russia and China share a number of interests in the Middle East: limiting US power and maintaining good relations with all players in the region while remaining aloof from the key conflicts, especially between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and Iran and Israel. Russia’s position has been based on political support for particular states, arms sales and the provision of civilian nuclear energy technology. Moscow has boosted its role by intervening militarily in the Syrian civil war. China has been strengthening its political position in the region for the last decade and its presence is more substantial from a financial-economic perspective. The current Chinese and Russian regional posture further marginalises the influence of the EU in MENA. In the Middle East, the EU is already a weaker economic actor than China and a weaker military player than Russia. However, the EU can cooperate with Russia and China on upholding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear programme.
Topic:: Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Power, Military Intervention, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Middle East, and Asia

48. Syria’s Return to the Arab Fold

Author:: Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Arab countries are re-normalizing their relations with the Assad regime, seeking to balance the strong Iranian and Turkish influences in Syria and to achieve some degree of influence in a new Syrian political-strategic structure. This further cements a Russian-oriented strategic architecture in the region. In the long term, this could lead to tensions between conservative Arab states and Israel, if Israel targets the Syrian military and government in the campaign against Iran, or if Israel continues to promote diplomatic recognition of its Golan annexation.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Governance, Normalization, and Annexation
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Asia, and Syria

49. Trump’s Plan is Opportunity to Change Paradigm

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Any government elected in Israel will undoubtedly agree to discuss the plan with the Americans.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

50. Iranian-Russian Cooperation in Yemen

Author:: Micky Aharonson and Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The Houthi rebellion in Yemen, with its horrendous consequences for the country’s civilian population, is being instigated primarily by Iranian assistance and direction for the rebels, together with Russian growing involvement in the conflict. An end to the fighting therefore depends to a large extent on the willingness of external countries to continue their fomenting of the conflict.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Yemen

51. European Appeasement of Iran Endangers National Security in Europe

Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The EU’s insistence on preserving the nuclear agreement with Iran and its persistent efforts to establish a mechanism for evading American trade sanctions are encouraging Iran to escalate its subversion throughout Europe.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, and Appeasement
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, and Middle East

52. Israel’s European Dilemma

Author:: Emmanuel Navon
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel should leverage its economic power and take advantage of the EU’s inner divisions, but it would not benefit from a divided Europe ruled by economic nationalists and anti-globalists aligned with Russia. To defend its national interests, Israel must develop ties with “rebellious” European governments, but only as a divide-and-rule tactic meant to break the Brussels consensus, not as a bond with forces that threaten to undermine free trade and the Atlantic alliance.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, European Union, Free Trade, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Israel

53. Will Trump’s ‘deal of the century’ lead to change?

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The guaranteed failure of the “deal of the century” is an opportunity for Israel to open the Americans’ eyes to the harsh and complicated reality in our region and lead them to support the strategy of managing the conflict and wait for better times.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Territorial Disputes, Leadership, Peace, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

54. Abbas’s Waterloo

Author:: David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: He has cornered himself into a situation where he has zero credibility and zero leverage on Israel, the US, the international community, and even the Sunni Arab world.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Palestinian Authority, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

55. Towards an Eastern Mediterranean Security Alliance

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The emerging informal alliance in the eastern Mediterranean is becoming increasingly significant. Egypt’s role, Erdogan’s ambitions, energy resources, joint military exercises and coordinated emergency responses contribute to the alliance.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Alliance, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Egypt, and Mediterranean

56. A US-Israeli Defense Treaty? A Noble Idea, But Neither Desirable nor Practical

Author:: Efraim Inbar and Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The need to assign American soldiers to fight with Israel might undermine Israel’s popularity in the US and constrain its freedom of action.
Topic:: Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Military Strategy, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

57. Erdoğan is Not Invulnerable

Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The US, Europe and Israel can force a modification in Erdoğan’s conduct on a wide range of issues, including his duplicity on Iran, support for Hamas in Gaza, subversion in Jerusalem, intervention in Libya, aggression towards Cypriot gas explorations, threats to Kurds of Rojava, and repression at home.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Hegemony, Authoritarianism, Leadership, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Asia

58. Russia hampering Israel-Arab ties

Author:: Micky Aharonson
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Outwardly, Russia is loyal to the idea that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the reason for Middle East unrest. This approach raises the bar on Palestinian demands and makes normal life in the region less likely.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Russia, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

59. Jordan Plays the Field

Author:: Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Jordan and other conservative Arab states are struggling with a difficult superpower ally and facing threats of regional escalation.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Alliance, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan

60. Israel Would Welcome Ties With Pakistan. Should India Worry?

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The recurrent debate about Israel in Pakistan reflects the former’s improved international standing. The Muslim giant could become the next success in Israel’s growing acceptance around the world
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Middle East, India, Israel, and Asia

61. How Israel Will Prevent Trump Appeasing Iran

Author:: Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Deadlock between Washington and Tehran won’t easily turn into détente even if Trump and Rohani do find a way to meet in New York. However, even a tentative rapprochement between the US and Iran would severely strain Israel’s close ties with the White House.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Rivalry, and Appeasement
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

62. Pakistan and Israel: Much Ado About Nothing?

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Both Pakistani and Israeli concerns currently militate against any imminent warming of ties.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Middle East, Israel, and Asia

63. Can a Chinese-Iranian Deal be Averted?

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Chinese investment in Iran would help Tehran withstand US economic pressures, and exacerbate the Western crisis with Iran
Topic:: International Cooperation, Investment, Economic Diplomacy, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: China, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

64. The Lessons of Betrayal in Northern Syria

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The move confirms that the current US administration is not interested in heading an alliance of regional forces against Iranian expansionism or Sunni political Islam, but is, like its predecessor, managing imperial decline.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, and Alliance
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and North America

65. Putin Is the New King of Syria

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The U.S. withdrawal makes Russia the new arbiter of everyone’s interests, including Israel’s.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, Syria, North America, and United States of America

66. No Reason for Kurdish Surprise

Author:: Lazar Berman
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Once again, Kurds are complaining of “betrayal.”
Topic:: International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Syria, Kurdistan, and United States of America

67. Israel, Europe and Russia: A New Paradigm?

Author:: Emmanuel Navon
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel is expected by its European interlocutors to condemn Putin over his misdeeds, yet Israel wants to avoid frictions with Russia in order to maintain a free hand to operate against Iranian targets in Syria.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, Foreign Interference, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

68. Finishing Strong: Seeking a Proper Exit from Afghanistan

Author:: Daniel F. Runde and Earl Anthony Wayne
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: A precipitous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan would endanger many of the social, political, economic, and health gains that have been achieved in Afghanistan over nearly 20 years. Afghanistan has a myriad of problems, including corruption, violence, and poverty, but these challenges often overshadow improvements in mortality rates, media and cellular access, tax collection, and women and girls’ education and political freedoms, among others. To prevent these gains from dissipating, the international community should encourage the Afghan government to meet certain governance benchmarks and continue on its path to self-reliance. The United States and its international allies should also consider a gradual withdrawal of troops, funding for the Afghan security forces, and economic assistance, based on a timeline that reflects facts on the ground and progress on peace negotiations.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Military Strategy, State Building, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

69. Russia-Israel Relations: Expectations and Reality

Author:: Micky Aharonson
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Syria remains the main point of contention between the two countries.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

70. Netanyahu in India

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits India just half a year after the first historic trip of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Israel (July 2017). These visits reflect the significant expansion in relations between the two countries that has taken place since the establishment of full diplomatic relations in 1992.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Middle East, India, Israel, and Asia

71. Israel is Worthy and Winning

Author:: David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: There are competing narratives about Israel: that it is flying-high, or that it is heading towards disaster. Wise and important actors around the world are coming to the conclusion that the first assertion is true. Israel is an anchor of sanity and a source of ingenuity in an unruly world. Israel’s strategy of vigilance, patience, and looking over the horizon for new partnerships is working.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Territorial Disputes, Anti-Semitism, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

72. A tale of Two Speeches

Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Harper and Pence have offered moral and spiritual leadership for the world. Their momentous Knesset speeches were epoch-making events.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Middle East, Canada, Israel, North America, and United States of America

73. ‘Fix it or Nix it’ is the Wrong Approach

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: What needs “nixing” is not the JCPOA – a piece of paper – but the Iranian nuclear infrastructure.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Infrastructure, Nuclear Power, Denuclearization, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

74. Dilemmas and Experiences of International Support for Inclusive Peacebuilding

Author:: Clare Castillejo
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: The issue of inclusive peacebuilding has moved up the international agenda in recent years. There is now unprecedented policy-level commitment among the international community to promote inclusion in conflict-affected contexts; growing evidence of the importance of inclusion for sustainable peace and development; emerging lessons on best approaches for promoting inclusion; and a recognition among international actors of the need to learn from past weaknesses in this area. This report examines the current policy context for providing international support to inclusive peacebuilding. It identifies how international actors can strengthen their efforts to promote inclusion by learning from previous experience and drawing on new knowledge and approaches. It goes on to look at how international actors have supported inclusion in three very different conflict-affected contexts, Afghanistan, Somalia and Nepal, and asks how international actors have engaged on issues of inclusion in these contexts, what factors shaped this engagement, and what the results have been.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Africa, Middle East, Asia, Nepal, and Somalia

75. The Attack on the Chemical Weapons Targets in Syria: Doing the Minimum

Author:: Udi Dekel and Carmit Valensi
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Besides the operational success, the attack in Syria earned the United States a clear political achievement, with the enforcement of American red lines by way of a coalition with Britain and France. However, this ad hoc coalition is focused solely on preventing the use of chemical weapons in Syria, and as Trump administration spokesmen clarified, there is no change in the US policy toward Syria. As such, the United States is threatening neither the Assad regime, nor the growing Iranian presence or Russian dominance in Syria. This attack was also not enough to address definitively the violations of the rules of war and the wide-scale attacks on civilians by Assad forces, including the use of conventional weapons, such as massive bombings from the air and barrel bomb attacks from helicopters. The United States and its partners did not present a plan to guarantee that the targeted attacks against civilians – and not just chemical attacks – on the part of Assad and the coalition that supports him will not continue. However, after seven years of war, in which more than a half a million people have been killed and millions have been displaced or have become refugees, the Syrian civilian population deserves more committed international support. For its part, Israel remains alone in the campaign against the consolidation by Iran and its proxies in war-torn Syria.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hezbollah, and Chemical Weapons
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and North America

76. Strengthening the JCPOA

Author:: Ephraim Asculai, Emily Landau, Daniel Shapiro, and Moshe Ya'alon
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Against the backdrop of the visit to Washington by President Macron and the scheduled visit by Chancellor Merkel in an effort to persuade US President Trump not to leave the JCPOA, this article zeros in on the key issues that need to be addressed by the allies. Guided by what is not only necessary but feasible at this late stage, the topics addressed include missiles, inspections, lack of transparency, sanctions, and the sunset provisions. Everything turns on political will – if it exists, agreeing to the proposed steps should not entail a lengthy process, and implementation can realistically begin in relatively short order. Significant results will mean the international community emerges with reinforced solidarity and a strengthened JCPOA. If negotiations progress seriously on this basis, it would make sense for the Trump administration to allow additional time beyond May 12 to complete them.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and North America

77. Israel and United States Military Assistance to Egypt

Author:: Shimon Arad
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: In January 2018, the United States and Egypt signed a bilateral communications security agreement known as the Communications Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA), which protects and regulates the use of sensitive American avionics and communications systems. This development now allows, for the first time, the acquisition by Egypt of US-made high precision GPS-based air-to-ground weapon systems and components, as well as advanced air-to-air missiles. Over the years, Israel’s concerns over the sale of large quantities of US weapon systems to Egypt were moderated by the quality cap dictated by the absence of a CISMOA agreement. Israel thus needs to raise this issue with Washington, within the context of the Qualitative Military Edge (QME) discussions. Given the unreliability of enduring stability in the Middle East, as exemplified by the events in Egypt since 2011, Israel should not disregard possible future scenarios in which its QME versus Egypt may matter. Based on the current convergence of security interests between Israel and Egypt, raising this issue with the US, though likely to upset Cairo, is not expected to undermine the practical manifestations of this relationship.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, North America, and Egypt

78. Iran in the Nuclear Realm and Iran in Syria: A New State of Play

Author:: Assaf Orion and Amos Yadlin
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Despite the two blows Iran sustained last week, Israel cannot afford to be complacent or overly satisfied. It will need to follow meticulously the updated policies adopted by each of the theater’s involved actors. Thus far, Israel has held separate policies regarding Iran’s nuclear program and the Iranian proxy war and malevolent influence. Now, it must develop an integrative long term policy and strive for coordinated efforts and meaningful cooperation with the United States, European countries, and the countries of the region. Operational and strategic coordination with Russia remains essential. Contending with the Iranian nuclear challenge will require the establishment of a joint “strategic early warning enterprise,” with the United States and other allies, aimed at preventing critical surprises.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and North America

79. Toward a New Model for the U.S.-Israel Relationship

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: By leveraging its remarkable achievements in the fields most relevant to future conflicts, Israel can transition from dependence on the U.S. to partnership.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

80. What a Crown Prince Wants

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Funds and favor for Saudi Arabia 2.0, and also to smash Iran.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Saudi Arabia

81. The missing piece of the puzzle

Author:: Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Given the bad nuclear deal signed with Iran, Israel must be diligent about risk management; no matter how relentless intelligence gathering efforts are, not all threats can be countered. Israel will not allow enemy states to go nuclear.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

82. After the Latest Chemical Attack, the US Should Stay in Syria

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel and America must avoid one-fit-all options regarding the military challenges in different parts of disintegrating Syria.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America

83. Trump’s Promo?

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The American-British-French strike in Syria should be seen as an exercise in building Western deterrence and creditability in advance of the decision expected next month regarding the nuclear deal with Iran
Topic:: International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Britain, Europe, Iran, Middle East, France, Syria, North America, and United States of America

84. Macron’s Message: Towards a New Deal with Iran?

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The French president’s visit to served to demonstrate Macron’s importance as a dynamic and proactive European player, and as a partner in the effort to curb Iran’s strategic ambitions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and France

85. Persuading Europe to pressure Iran

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel’s revelation of Iran’s nuclear deception aims to show the world that the 2015 deal with Iran must indeed be renegotiated in the interests of global peace.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, Peace, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Israel

86. The Fourth Trilateral Eastern Mediterranean Summit

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Amidst the tensions and transformations even of these dramatic days – the American withdrawal from the Iran deal, the violent confrontation in Syria, the ongoing Hamas provocations on the Gaza border, and the opening of the US embassy in Jerusalem – it was easy to lose sight of another landmark event. It is remarkable that by now a tripartite summit of Prime Minister Netanyahu and his fellow eastern Mediterranean leaders – President Anastasiades of Cyprus and Prime Minister Tsipras of Greece – is no longer remarked upon. Their meeting was the fourth of its kind. It has now become part of a broader pattern of consolidated cooperation between the three countries. Still, the (exceedingly long) joint statement issued in Nicosia on May 8 is a striking document. Like its predecessors (January 28, 2016 in Nicosia, December 8, 2016 in Jerusalem, and June 15, 2017 in Thessaloniki), the statement asserts that this is not an exclusive club. “Like minded” nations are urged to join the efforts to make the eastern Mediterranean safer, more stable and more prosperous.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Peace
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

87. 10 reasons to tank the F-35 jet sale to Turkey

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Turkey is no longer a reliable Western ally. Provision of the F-35 jet would strengthen Erdogan’s authoritarian Islamist regime and boost its capabilities for regional mischief.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Military Affairs, Authoritarianism, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

88. Game On: The new strategy of the US and its allies in the Middle East

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Bad management, corruption and a failure of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to generate expected levels of foreign investment compound the problem.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

89. Iran’s Response: The ‘Strategy of Tension’

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Iran enjoyed and benefited from the moment when the Arab world was at its most fragmented, and the West at its most rudderless.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Hegemony
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

90. Moving the Markers

Author:: David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The Clinton-Obama parameters haven’t worked – not for 25 years of peacemaking efforts since Oslo. They have lead to deadlock and much suffering. Let’s give the Trump team credit for taking a fresh look at what is safe, wise, fair and realistic in today’s Israeli-Palestinian reality.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Territorial Disputes, Leadership, Borders, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

91. Hosting Viktor Orban is in Israel’s best interest

Author:: Emmanuel Navon
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: hose who called for the cancellation of Orbán’s visit did not boycott Putin’s visit to Israel in 2012, nor did they condemn Israel’s apology to Erdoğan in 2013. Realpolitik must be consistent, and self-righteousness cannot be selective.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Authoritarianism, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Hungary

92. The Future of Eastern Syria and the Israeli Interest

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: JISS fellow Dr. Jonathan Spyer travelled in late July to the SDF enclave in eastern Syria. He reports that maintenance of this enclave is critical to keeping a substantial physical obstacle to the Iranian goal of a contiguous corridor from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Hegemony, Conflict, and Borders
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

93. The Oslo Process – 25 Years On

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The abject failure of the Oslo Accords has had a salutary effect on Israeli society. Israelis are today quite resilient, ready to endure – if necessary – protracted conflict.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Peace, and Oslo Accords
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

94. Iran’s Involvement in the Western Sahara

Author:: Omer Dostri
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Iran’s goal in its activity in the Western Sahara is to subvert Morocco, a moderate Sunni state, as part of the Iranian regime’s policy of spreading the Shi’ite revolution.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Morocco, and Western Sahara

95. Is Khamenei Ruling out Dialogue with Trump?

Author:: Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: On restoring relations between Tehran and Washington. If the protests in Iran expand, Trump will be able to exert greater pressure on Tehran.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

96. As the Middle East Turns: Domestic Unrest, Changing Partnerships, and an Unreliable United States

Author:: Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: In the Mideast of today, the US is largely irrelevant, when it is not disruptive, and is certainly not providing clear leadership. With the current disarray in DC, it does not look like this will change any time soon.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Leadership, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

97. Angela Merkel’s Duplicity on Israel

Author:: Emmanuel Navon
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Germany is being inconsistent and duplicitous and the time has come to say it loud and clear.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Germany

98. China-Israel Relations: Growing Cooperation Amidst Conflicting Interests

Author:: Omer Dostri
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: In the past decade, relations between Israel and China have become closer, following a decision in Jerusalem to diversify and expand Israel’s ties with emerging powers and countries that do not belong to the European Union and are less identified with the American coalition. The visit to Israel by China’s vice president is evidence of the warming of relations between the two countries.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Hegemony, and Emerging Powers
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

99. Don’t throw MBS under the bus

Author:: David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The Saudi Crown Prince isn’t a democrat or a strategic savior, but don’t give the evil leaders of Turkey and Iran a victory by weakening US-Saudi ties.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Cooperation, Authoritarianism, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, North America, and United States of America

100. The Murder of Sheikh Bashir Faisal al-Huwaidi in Raqqa

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The killing of prominent Arab tribal leader Sheikh Bashir Faisal al-Huwaidi has serious implications for the US and Kurdish administered part of Syria, in which Raqqa is located. That administration of Syria has many enemies and remains fragile.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Fragile States, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS