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22. US and EU: Lack of Strategic Vision, Frustrated Efforts Toward the Arab Transitions
- Author:
- Amy Hawthorne and Danya Greenfield
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The United States and Europe have yet to show the requisite political will or to develop sustainable strategies to help Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and Yemen in their democratic transitions more than two years after a wave of popular revolutions toppled decades-old autocracies. To be sure, deepening political, economic, and security challenges in these countries from June 2012 to August 2013, the period analyzed in this report, complicated efforts to provide support. Yet the United States and the European Union (EU) missed important opportunities to capitalize on openings where they existed or to send consistent and sustained diplomatic messages where needed. Faced with the vast amounts of cash the Gulf countries could provide rapidly to the transition countries, especially to Egypt, some in Washington and Brussels wondered if the United States and the EU even had much to offer. In the past year, fatigue and frustration more than energy and hope have characterized US and European engagement with these countries.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Social Movement
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Egypt, and Tunisia
23. Iraq's Provincial Elections and their National Implications
- Author:
- Ahmed Ali
- Publication Date:
- 04-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- On April 20th, Iraq will hold its third provincial elections since 2005. There are 447 open seats nationwide, and competition for them is fierce. Previous elections illustrate that winning provincial seats can reverberate on the national level. A simple majority of seats offers the parties an opportunity to control the senior provincial posts, including the governorship and chairmanship of the councils. Control of these positions provides space for maneuvering to achieve national level objectives.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Regime Change, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
24. Sistem ve Yolsuzluk: Fransa ve Türkiye
- Author:
- Ali Murat Aydın
- Publication Date:
- 02-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- What is corruption? Is it a plague on the modern state that should be avoided? Or is it a necessary engine oil which turns the turbines of a stopped-up bureaucracy? In the most basic denotation, corruption is the abusing of a public power by a public actor for the interest of an individual or a group in return for private interest. Governments are always confronted with difficulties in fighting corruption. The reason is the diversity of perception against corruption in each society. This research aims to compare the models of corruption in Turkish and French bureaucracy. When we consider the direct relation in structuring between the traditional Turkish bureaucracy and French bureaucracy, we can more simply understand the collateral relation of these two countries in their models of corruption. The most important problem confronted about corruption in Turkey and in France is the unlimited financing of political parties without a legal circumscription. In fighting against corruption, the two countries each have to exponentially unite their anti-corruption institutions in a single superior administration. This will lead to an advancement in efficiency in the fight against corruption. It should be kept in mind that, the ethic is not a divine or a holy concept. It's a public term. If we look at the problem from an ideal perspective, we have to obstruct the erosion of ethical values in the democratic systems in the name of efficiency and the market.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Crime, Democratization, Development, Islam, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
25. The Underlying Causes of Stability and Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: An Analytic Survey
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman, Nicholas S. Yarosh, and Chloe Coughlin-Schulte
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The political dynamics and violence that shape the current series of crises in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) – and daily events in Bahrain Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Tunisia, Syria, and Yemen – dominate the current course of virtually every aspect of these states including much of the current course of violence and instability in the region. Political dynamics and the current levels of, however, are only part of the story.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Democratization, Development, Economics, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Tunisia
26. Talking to Arab Youth: Revolution and Counterrevolution in Egypt and Tunisia
- Author:
- Nur Laiq
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- The political landscape of the Arab world has undergone dramatic changes since 2011, the effects of which will continue to reverberate into the foreseeable future. The overthrow of authoritarian rule in Tunisia by popular protest was followed by the collapse of longstanding regimes in Egypt, Libya, and Yemen, leading many to celebrate a new dynamic between citizen and state in the Arab world. In late 2013, the situation looks quite different. The first democratically elected president in Egypt has been deposed, hundreds of his supporters killed, and the Muslim Brotherhood banned. In Tunisia, parliament has been suspended; two politicians have been assassinated; and a campaign calling for the ouster of the Islamist-led government has gained momentum. In both countries, the population is divided and the anciens régimes fight to restore the old order. Will the ideals that sparked revolution be subsumed by counterrevolution? Or will the trajectories of revolution bend toward democratic consolidation?
- Topic:
- Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, Youth Culture, and Popular Revolt
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, and Egypt
27. The Effect of Syria Crisis on the Transformation and Integration of the Middle East
- Author:
- M. Murat Erdoğan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
- Abstract:
- The Arab spring could be seen as an integral part of a world in transformation. The technology and information revolutions and interconnectedness between cultures make it impossible for tyrants to rule for lifetime while subjugating the people to servitude with no chance for their freedom. Despite the unique characteristics of each country, the common theme of the protests in the Arab world has been largely shaped by the continuing economic inequality and rising social injustices. The Arab youth charge the authoritarian governments as the main source of their socioeconomic problems, lack of freedoms, and injustices and, desire change in the current political systems. Syria has a central position connecting the Arab states to Turkey. As a pioneering state, Turkey needs a democratic Syria to contribute to the transformation of the Arab world. It could be said that the fall of Assad regime and the establishment of a democratic government in Syria can contribute to Turkey’s initiatives for the transformation and regional integration in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Democracy, Syrian War, Crisis Management, and Integration
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
28. Iran: a revolutionary republic in transition
- Author:
- Rouzbeh Parsi (ed)
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- This Chaillot Paper examines recent domestic developments in the Islamic Republic of Iran. It presents an in-depth assessment of the profound changes that the Iranian state and Iranian society have undergone in the past three decades, with a particular focus on the last tumultuous five years. In its exploration of this theme it not only shows the growing rift between the official discourse and self-image of the ruling elite and the society they govern, but also highlights the fact that external observers have many misperceptions about Iran.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, Political Economy, Governance, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
29. The Use of Force, Crisis Diplomacy and the Responsibilities of States
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- The papers included in this report relate to a conference co-hosted by the New York University Abu Dhabi Institute, the NYU Center on International Cooperation (CIC) and the Brookings Institution on 21-22 February in Abu Dhabi on “The Use of Force, Crisis Diplomacy and the Responsibilities of States.”
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, Islam, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa
30. Peacebuilding Efforts of Women from Afghanistan and Iraq: Lessons in Transition
- Author:
- Kathleen Kuehnast, Hodei Sultan, Manal Omar, and Steven E. Steiner
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- In transitioning countries such as Afghanistan and Iraq, women are increasingly finding their rights limited by state and religious leaders. Cultural and national stereotypes can be quickly overcome by the shared backgrounds, accomplishments, obstacles, and aspirations of women in transitioning countries. Women living in countries in transition value opportunities to network with women from other countries in similar situations. Women leaders from Afghanistan and Iraq have genuine concerns about the challenges facing women in the Arab Spring. Their valuable opinions are based on their own experiences of overcoming those challenges. It is essential that women work together and with men to further women's rights. Women must plan for a transition before it happens and have a strategy of work going into the transition process. Laws empowering and protecting women do not work if they are not enforced. International donors need a long-term view of women's programming, as much of the required work will take time. Donors should consider nonurban areas when working with women, and when possible nonelite partners, as these leaders understand the limitations of local conditions. It is possible for women's groups to find common ground with religious leaders.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Gender Issues, Islam, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
31. Arab Spring, Turkish "Summer"? The trajectory of a pro-Western "moderate Islam"
- Author:
- ees van der Pijl
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- The “moderate Islam” that has developed in Turkey could play a role in shaping the outcome of the Arab revolt that began in 2011. The modern Turkish state established by Atatürk after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire had to find ways to integrate Islam politically. Turkey was a late-industrialising country and the Islamic political current tended to have an anti-Western, antiliberal profile on this account. Two tendencies within Turkish political Islam are distinguished: one connecting religion to economic nationalism, the other primarily cultural and willing to accommodate to neoliberalism. The 1980 military coup geared the country to neoliberalism and cleared the way for this second tendency to rise to power through the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of R.T. Erdo ˘gan. For the West and the Gulf Arab states the export of this model to the Arab countries destabilised in the popular revolt would amount to a very favourable outcome. Gulf Arab capital was already involved in the opening up of state-controlled Arab economies, including Syria. Although the situation is still in flux, by following the Turkish model Muslim Brotherhood governments could potentially embrace political loyalty to the West and neoliberal capitalism.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Civil Society, Democratization, Development, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa
32. Patterns of Violence in Iraq
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Sam Khazai
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Iraq is in an ongoing struggle to establish a new national identity, and one that can bridge across the deep sectarian divisions between its Shi'ites and Sunnis as well as the ethnic divisions between its Arabs and its Kurds and other minorities. At the same time, Iraq's leaders must try to build a new structure of governance, economics, and social order after a mix of dictatorship, war, sanctions, occupation, and civil conflict that began in the 1970s and have continued ever since.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Post Colonialism, Regime Change, Counterinsurgency, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
33. Political Update: The Hashemi Verdict the Health of Democracy in Iraq
- Author:
- Stephen Wicken
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- On Sunday, Iraqs Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi was sentenced to death by hanging after he and his son-in-law were convicted of organizing the murders of a security official and a lawyer. All told, Hashemi is subject to more than 150 charges of terrorism based upon allegations that he used death squads to target his political opponents. The verdict carries distressing implications for short-term domestic security in Iraq and for diplomatic relations with neighboring Turkey, where Hashemi currently resides and has been based since his trial began. While some observers view the case against Hashemi in purely sectarian terms, the targeting of a Sunni politician in a Shiite-led state, the sentence in fact highlights the pernicious nature of personal rivalries within Iraqi politics. Further, it demonstrates the politicization of the Iraqi judicial system under Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who has commandeered Iraq's legal institutions in order to consolidate power around his inner circle.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East
34. The Arab World's Education Report Card: School Climate and Citizenship Skills
- Author:
- Muhammad Faour
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The youth of the Arab world have driven much of the popular upheaval that has overtaken the region in the last year. Calling for fundamental political and economic change, they seek to remake their societies into more open, global players. But if that grassroots momentum is to be solidified, real societal reform must take place.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Demographics, Economics, Education, Globalization, Regime Change, and Youth Culture
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa
35. Rising Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean: Implications for Turkish Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Ebru Oğurlu
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Over the last few years, the Eastern Mediterranean has been increasingly fraught with growing competition between regional players, most notably Turkey, Cyprus, and Israel, signalling an apparent return of power politics in regional relations. Of all actors involved, Turkey stands out for being both an ever more influential power and a source of serious concern to other countries in the region due to its greater assertiveness and perceived hegemonic ambitions. Against the backdrop of recent regional developments and their international implications, including the dispute over drilling rights off Cyprus' coasts, Turkey's image as a constructive and dialogue-oriented country, a critical achievement pursued by a generation of Turkish politicians, diplomats and officials, risks being replaced by one of an antagonistic/assertive power. Facing the first serious challenge to its claim to embody a benign model as a secular Muslim democracy and a responsible international actor, Turkey should not indulge in emotional reactions. It should opt instead for a more moderate and balanced approach based on the assumption that only cooperation and constructive dialogue, even with rival countries, can help it realize its ambition of being the regional pivot.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development, Islam, and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Asia, Colombia, and Cyprus
36. Egypt's Judges in a Revolutionary Age
- Author:
- Nathan J. Brown
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Egypt's tumultuous uprising of 2011 was about many things, but among the most central was a demand by legions of political activists and large crowds of mobilized citizens that public authority in the country be reconstructed to operate in a clearly accountable manner, fully governed by the rule of law. Egyptian judges might therefore be expected to look upon the post-uprising environment as a time when they can finally realize a vision that they have been articulating for a generation in the face of an imperious and impervious presidency: A state ruled by law in which they will be insulated from political pressures and private interests, providing full autonomy to individual judges and to the judiciary as a body to issue decisions that will be respected and implemented by all the agencies of the Egyptian state.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Regime Change, and Law
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt
37. The State of Iraq
- Author:
- Marina Ottaway and Danial Kaysi
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Within days of the official ceremonies marking the end of the U.S. mission in Iraq, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki moved to indict Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi on terrorism charges and sought to remove Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlaq from his position, triggering a major political crisis that fully revealed Iraq as an unstable, undemocratic country governed by raw competition for power and barely affected by institutional arrangements. Large-scale violence immediately flared up again, with a series of terrorist attacks against mostly Shi'i targets reminiscent of the worst days of 2006.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Democratization, Development, Ethnic Conflict, Terrorism, War, Fragile/Failed State, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Kurdistan
38. Digital Media in the Arab World One Year After the Revolutions
- Author:
- Jeffrey Ghannam
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- National Endowment for Democracy
- Abstract:
- The Arab region is experiencing a profound media shift. The year following the start of the Arab revolutions–in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and violent uprisings in Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain–was followed by continued repression and threats to the exercise of free expression online and offline. But the year also saw great strides in the numbers of Arabs across the region turning to social media platforms and the ascendancy of online engagement. This report traces and analyzes the enabling of tens of millions of individuals–as well as established news outlets–to attract wide global followings with Facebook and Twitter updates and YouTube videos about rapidly changing events. The widely diverse and pluralistic online communities in the Arab world are creating and sharing content, calling into question the future of the many state-owned or self-censored media that provide less in the way of engagement that Arab audiences have come to expect.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Politics, Science and Technology, Mass Media, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Tunisia
39. Dallying with Reform in a Divided Jordan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Something is brewing in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. It is not so much that protests have been spreading since 2011; the country has experienced these before and so far they remain relatively small. It is, rather, who is behind them and from where dissatisfaction stems. East Bankers – Jordanians who inhabited the area before the arrival of the first Palestinian refugees in 1948 – have long formed the pillar of support for a regime that played on their fears concerning the Palestinian-origin majority. That pillar is showing cracks. The authorities retain several assets: popular anxiety about instability; U.S. and Gulf Arab political and material support; and persistent intercommunal divisions within the opposition. But in a fast-changing region, they would be reckless to assume they can avoid both far-reaching change and turmoil. Ultimately, they must either undertake the former one or experience the latter.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, Democratization, Regime Change, and Political Activism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Jordan
40. Lost in Transition: The World according to Egypt's SCAF
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Since it assumed power after Hosni Mubarak's ouster, the performance of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) has been, at times, head-scratching. Extolled in the wake of the uprising as the revolution's protector, many have come to view it as an agent of the counter-revolution. It often has been obstinate, before abruptly yielding to pressure. It values its long ties with Washington, from which it receives much assistance, but seemed willing to jeopardise them by targeting U.S.-funded NGOs. Suspected by Islamists of seeking to deprive them of opportunity to govern and by non-Islamists of entering a secret pact with the Muslim Brotherhood, it finds itself in the worst of both worlds: an angry tug-of-war with liberal protesters and a high-wire contest with Islamists. It displays little interest in governing, wishing instead to protect privileges, but erratic behaviour threatens even that. On the eve of presidential elections that have become a high-stakes free-for-all, the SCAF should take a step back and, with the full range of political actors, agree on principles for a genuine and safe political transition.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Islam, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia