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Begin New Search Topic Politics Political Geography Middle East Content Type Working Paper Publication Year within 10 Years

1. Tradition and Protest: The Druze Community in Lebanese Politics

Author:
Moran Levanoni
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our new issue of al-Durziyya: Druze and Other Minorities in the Middle East, Dr. Moran Levanoni analyzes political trends among the Druze community and their impact on Lebanese politics in the last parliamentary election. This article suggests that the political, social, and economic crises Lebanon is going through affected voting patterns within the Druze community, allowing new members to participate instead of the old guard of traditional politicians.
Topic:
Politics, Minorities, Hezbollah, and Druze
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

2. Border Nation: The Reshaping of the Syrian-Turkish Borderlands

Author:
Armenak Tokmajyan and Kheder Khaddour
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Turkish-Syrian border is divided into separate areas of control—under the Syrian Democratic Forces in northeast Syria, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham in Idlib, and Turkey in several cantons—which sustain contradictory political projects. Yet these border areas constitute a single political-security ecosystem, one connected to southern Turkey and regime-held Syria. As such, only a peace agreement that treats the border areas as an indivisible whole and delimits the major powers’ zones of influence can lead to a stable long-term arrangement.
Topic:
Security, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Borders, and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

3. Political Change and Turkey’s Foreign Policy

Author:
Alper Coşkun and Sinan Ülgen
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Turkey is heading toward a set of twin elections that could have momentous consequences for the country’s future. In June 2023 at the latest, Turkish voters will be asked to choose a new president and a new parliamentary majority. For the past two decades, the Turkish political landscape has been dominated by the Justice and Development (AK) Party and its uniquely successful leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. After having ruled the country single-handedly since 2002, Erdoğan became the first executive president of Turkey in 2018, following a tightly contested constitutional change. He has come out victorious in every round of elections since the start of his political career. And yet, after two decades, his popularity is faltering, raising the prospect of political change. The turning point for Turkey’s political system has been the transition to a presidential system with the constitutional amendment of 2017.1 Since the start of multiparty elections in 1946, Turkey had had a parliamentary system, and since 2002 it has had single-party governments. With Erdoğan at the helm, the AK Party has won nearly all elections over the past two decades. It only failed to win a parliamentary majority in the most recent elections,2 in June 2018, and since then has been forced to rely on the support of the hyper-nationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) to secure control of the legislature.3 Alper Coşkun Alper Coşkun is a senior fellow in the Europe Program and leads the Türkiye and the World Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC. @IACOSKUN The transition to the presidential system forced a realignment of the political constellation. The structural impact of this transition has led to the creation of two major political alliances. The Cumhur, or People’s, Alliance is led by the AK Party and includes the MHP and a small number of marginal parties. The Millet, or Nation, Alliance is led by the main opposition, the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP); it also includes the center-right/nationalist İYİ Party as well as the Saadet and Demokrat parties, which appeal to a smaller electoral base. The first real test of this alliance-based politics was the municipal elections of March 2019, where the opposition alliance performed markedly better. Millet-backed opposition candidates won the electoral race in nine out of Turkey’s ten major metropolitan cities, including Ankara and Istanbul. These cities had been ruled by mayors linked to the AK Party and its predecessors since 1994. Now the alliances are gearing up to contest the critical 2023 elections. The ruling Cumhur Alliance’s candidate will be Erdoğan, who will try to win a third term as Turkey’s president. The candidate of the Millet Alliance is still unknown. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, as the leader of the main opposition party, is intent on becoming the Millet candidate, but there are doubts about his electability against Erdoğan. Meral Akşener, the chairwoman of İYİ—the second-largest opposition party—has so far sidelined herself from the presidential race. Ekrem Imamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul, and Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of Ankara, are also possible presidential candidates for the opposition. At present, all four potential candidates for the opposition are polling better than Erdoğan—fueling speculation about political change.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Public Opinion, Elections, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

4. Hezbollah’s Political Challenges following the Elections in Lebanon

Author:
Orna Mizrahi
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Although the Hezbollah camp was weakened in last month’s Lebanese parliamentary elections, the opposition is weak and divided. Meantime, Hezbollah maintains its status and influence, seeking to play a significant role in the next government. Nasrallah, determined to retain the organization’s independent military power, continues to try to strengthen Hezbollah’s image as a responsible national actor whose main concern is to ease Lebanon’s plight – and defend Lebanon against Israel
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Elections, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

5. Growing Disagreements between President Raisi and his Conservative Rivals

Author:
Raz Zimmt
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
“Lacking knowledge and experience”: recent weeks have seen growing criticism of Iranian President Raisi, primarily regarding his failure to deal with the country’s severe economic crisis. Political criticism is neither new nor rare in the Islamic Republic, but it is now emerging from within Raisi’s conservative camp, less than a year after his government was formed
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Leadership, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

6. The Upcoming Elections in Lebanon: Dubious Possibilities for Change

Author:
Orna Mizrahi and Orit Perlov
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
For the first time since the public protests and collapse of the economy, Lebanon will hold elections for its 128 parliamentary seats. Yet despite the desire for change in the political system and the concerns of Hezbollah and its allies as to their standing, it is doubtful whether the elections will lead to significant change in the Land of the Cedars
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Leadership, and State Building
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

7. “The New Way”: The Key to Understanding Ra’am’s Strategy

Author:
Michael Milshtein
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
The current issue of Bayan includes two articles that discuss the ideological and political characteristics of the Ra’am party, which is the political arm of the Islamic Movement, headed by Mansour Abbas. Dr. Michael Milshtein's article analyses Ra’am’s political strategy, which is referred to as “The New Way”.
Topic:
Politics, Ideology, Islamism, Political Parties, and Mansour Abbas
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

8. First year of the coalition: The situation of the Arab parties and the balance of power between them

Author:
Rany Hasan
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
The current issue of Bayan is being published more than a year after the Knesset elections. For the first time in Arab politics in Israel, one party (United Arab List, Ra'am) joined the government coalition while another party (Joint Arab List) stays in the opposition. In his article, Rany Hasan examines the dynamics and relations between the two parties in recent years, and the balance of power between them, one year after the elections.
Topic:
Politics, Minorities, Elections, Political Parties, and Arabs
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

9. Fear and awe on the way to Baalbek

Author:
Moran Levanoni
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of BeeHive Moran Levanoni explores the political and social impact of the Lebanese TV series “Al-Hayba”.
Topic:
Politics, Media, Drugs, and Society
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

10. What happened to the Turkish Lira?

Author:
Güven Sak
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Dr. Guven Sak delves into the core reasons for Turkey's current currency and economic crisis along with an explanation for the political reforms needed to stabilize the Turkish markets.
Topic:
Markets, Politics, Reform, Currency, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean