Content Type: Working Paper / Political Geography: Middle East / Publication Year:

901. Displacement-Emigration-Return: Understanding Uncertainty in Iraq

Author:: Kamaran Palani
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: Following the Islamic State’s (IS) occupation of Iraqi territories in June 2014 more than 3 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) fled their homes in search for a secure place. Of these, around 1,3 million found refuge in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). In parallel to new waves of displacement, Iraqis were also choosing to migrate abroad. In 2015, Iraqis were among the top three nationalities reaching Europe through the Mediterranean routes, after Syrians and Afghans (UNHCR 2016b, 34). Besides displacement and emigration, a large number of IDPs have returned to their place of origin since 2017. As the process intensifies, the security, political and economic conditions of the liberated areas still remain unstable and unpredictable. This report provides policy recommendations based on the results of the research study titled “Drivers for onward migration: the case of Iraqi IDPs in the Kurdistan Region leaving Iraq”, which was conducted between May and November 2017. In it, we addressed the questions: what mechanisms are responsible for explaining why IDPs living in the KRI want to either stay, emigrate or return to their places of origin? and what are the relationships between displacement, emigration and return in the context of Iraq? To address these questions, we employed both quantitative and qualitative analyses methods including: (a) evaluating 500 questionnaires distributed among IDPs in the KRI (Erbil, Duhok and Suleimaniyah governorates) between May and June 2017; (b) conducting 30 semi-structured interviews with IDPs in the KRI between June and July 2017, and (c) discussing preliminary results of the study during a workshop in Erbil on 23 July 2017 with local, national and international actors, including governmental and non-governmental organizations. The data indicates that, although slightly more than half of the sample wish/plan to leave Iraq (55%), only a minority of the subjects (23%) actually developed a concrete plan to do so. Emigration was most appealing to those ages 26–35 and among those with no or low levels of education. Moreover, Yazidis and Christians were more represented among those who wished or planned to leave Iraq. In addition, the most important pull factors point to the presence of family/relatives and friends along with the confidence of receiving refugee status upon arrival. Ultimately, IDPs perceptions of insecurity and lack of economic opportunities appear to be the most compelling reasons driving their wish/plan to emigrate. The data also suggests that IDPs’ perceptions towards the future political, economic and security situations in Iraq (expressed in the next five years) is the most relevant factor determining people’s emigration decision: within an overall negative assessment of the future of Iraq, IDPs wishing or planning to emigrate held a more pessimistic view compared to those who wanted to return or stay in displacement. Conversely, the study finds that socio-political (i.e., relations between IDPs and hosting communities) and socio-economic (i.e., income level and employment status) factors are less significant in determining IDPs’ wish/plan to leave the country. Where socio-political and socio-economic factors do not directly influence IDPs’ intentions, they however, contribute to a distressing sense of uncertainty prevalent among IDPs. Political, social and economic uncertainty overarchingly influences displacement, emigration and return in and from Iraq. Additionally, the Government of Iraq (GoI) and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) have not been capable of (or willing to) address such uncertainty. Rather, they have contributed to a governance of uncertainty best illustrated by the absence of a comprehensive framework for managing displacement and return in both the KRI and greater federal Iraq. In response, this study calls for the development of robust policies at the international, national and local levels which: a. Consider displacement in Iraq as a chronic condition versus a sudden crisis; b. Recognize how recurrent, protracted and unresolved displacement waves destabilize the region; c. Appreciate displacement as a diversified phenomenon. These findings stress the destabilizing and traumatic effects of displacement and the urgency of addressing them, thus, we recommend the following prioritized policy areas through which international, regional, national and local actors can contribute to solve, or at least mitigate, the negative impact of displacement: 1. Elaborate and implement a national policy framework for displacement capable of addressing its multiple manifestations; 2. Adopt facilitation (without active encouragement) measures that can decrease the prevalent uncertainty among the population; 3. Include displacement in the broader physical and social reconstruction plan for Iraq. The data for this report was collected in Spring/Summer 2017, and thus, describes a scenario that has changed following the events that took place in September and October 2017 (see Section 3). However, the findings and recommendations that the study identified appear as relevant today as they were pre- Referendum. Although the situation has changed, they support policy-recommendations that are urgently needed. The research project “Drivers for onward migration: t
Topic:: Migration, Islamic State, Displacement, and NGOs
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan

902. Post-Crises Prospects for Reconciliation in Iraq: A Kurdish-Shi’ite Debate in Najaf

Author:: Khogir Wirya
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: With the military defeat of Islamic State (IS) militants in Mosul and other Iraqi territories, the Government of Iraq (GoI) is moving ahead with plans to stabilize violent environments, rebuild war-ravaged physical infrastructure, and restore vital services. Equally important is the need for developing a feasible national reconciliation strategy among the country’s various ethnic, religious, and social groups, through dialogue and trust-building mechanisms. In light of warm historical relations and significant political influence between Iraqi Kurds and Shi’ites, reconciliation between them is of paramount importance for lasting stability in the country. Indeed, in the absence of Erbil-Baghdad rapprochement, overcoming future political challenges will be very difficult. Towards that end, the Middle East Research Institute (MERI) and Al-Rafidain Centre for Dialogue (RCD) jointly organized a series of unofficial meetings involving representatives of Shi’ite political parties and a MERI-led Kurdish delegation between 28 February and 01 March 2018. Religious leaders, academics, political party representatives, members of parliament from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), Baghdad and Najaf attended the meetings, organized under the themes of “The Future of Governance in Iraq: Crises and Partnership Opportunities” and “The Role of Decision-makers and Political Elites in Building Confidence Among the Components of Iraqi Society.” The MERI-led delegation also visited the Marja’iya (Shi’ite religious authority) in al-Najaf city.
Topic:: Religion, Islamic State, Political stability, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Kurdistan, and Mosul

903. Confessionalism and Electoral Prospects in Iraq

Author:: Dlawer Ala'Aldeen
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: Ever since Saddam’s regime was toppled in 2003, Iraq has three competitive parliamentary elections in 2005, 2010 and 2014. In all of these, pre-election alliance building and post-election coalition building processes were fairly predictable given the confessional nature of Iraq’s political system. Essentially, the system is centered on a politically conventional power-sharing arrangement among the country’s three main ethno-sectarian powerhouses: Shi’ite Arab Muslims, Sunni Arab Muslims, and the Kurds. This arrangement has prompted small political parties to forge alliances with these confessional powerhouses. This time round, this trend is likely to continue in the upcoming elections scheduled on 12 May 2018, but perhaps on a smaller scale. What gravitates political entities are political expediency and nationalist sentiments. These two factors seem to be shaping and forming some alliances such as between secular and civil-minded parties, the Shiite Sadrist movement via Hizb Istaqama (the Integrity Party), and the Iraqi Communist party. On 22 January 2018, Iraqi legislators ratified a decision to hold much-debated anticipated parliamentary elections on 12 May 2018, thereby ending the stalemate by some lawmakers to postpone it. Iraq is at a crossroads, and much of what is at stake will depend on which of the 27 registered electoral alliances emerge as winners. The large number of alliances suggests that political entities are aware of the competitive advantages inherent to forming these, versus running independently. Indeed, because of Iraq’s particular parliamentarian arrangement, the 24 million eligible voters in the 18 national electoral districts, representing the country’s 18 governorates, will not be electing the next prime minister – they will, instead, be picking an electoral alliance, which will engage in post-election coalition building negotiations to nominate the prime minister and form the next government. While it is still premature to forecast the ultimate composition of the next government, it is most likely to be led by one of four viable options: Eitilaf al-Nasr (Victory Alliance) led by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi; Eitilaf al-Wataniya (National Alliance) led by former Prime Minister Ayad Alawi; Eitilaf Dawlat al-Qanun (State of the Law Alliance) led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki; and Tahaluf al-Fatah (Conquest Alliance) led by al-Hashd al-Sha’abi (Popular Mobilization Units) commander Hadi al-Ameri. However, given the unpopularity of Iraq’s political class, no single alliance is expected to win a majority of parliamentary seats, forcing the formation of a grand-coalition government. This, nevertheless, may help build broad-based support and legitimacy given Iraq’s oversized economic, security, and political challenges. Furthermore, the next election is expected to maintain the status quo due to the existence of potent structural forces inspired by political and electoral confessionalism. However, and encouragingly, the status quo may prove ephemeral in the face of internal divisions within the traditional confessional centers of power, the rising popular discontent with the quality of the existing democratic system and the limited progress it has made over the past fifteen years. It would be safe to say that an inclusive government can increase popular support, reduce the likelihood of ethno-sectarian civil war, minimise the influence of external powers, and bolster the nation’s attractiveness to foreign investors. In the long term, Iraq needs a government that is ambitiously reformist to transform the state’s political, electoral, and economic systems.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Nationalism, Religion, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Kurdistan

904. Turkey and the European Union: Conflicting Policies and Opportunities for Cohesion and Cooperation In Iraq and Syria

Author:: Dlawer Ala'Aldeen, Susan Cersosimo, and Kamaran Palani
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: There are major security events, issues and trends within Iraq since 2003 and Syria since 2011, that have influenced and impacted Turkey-European Union (EU) relations. In this policy paper we deconstruct the causal mechanisms that act as the primary drivers impacting bilateral relations. We then compare and contrast Ankara’s and Brussels’ current security interests, priorities and perceptions toward security threats originating in this troubled neighbourhood. Finally, we classify opportunities as culminating in three possible discrete or combined security policy scenarios: conflict, cooperation and/or convergence and make recommendations to improve Turkey-EU relations. To address how Iraq’s and Syria’s security environment evolved to its current state and predict the subsequent outcomes and impacts on EU-Turkey relations, we look back and critically analyse Ankara’s and Brussels’ views on the following key events, issues and trends: security and political dynamics following the second term of al-Maliki, the withdrawal of the US forces in 2011, the 2011 Syrian revolution, the war against the Islamic state (IS), The Global Coalition against Daesh (GCD) backing of the Democratic Union Party (PYD) in northern Syria, the rise of Kurdish nationalism and aspirations for statehood in Iraq and autonomy in Syria, the enhanced influence of Iran in Iraq and the growth of IS with subsequent mass displacement of person across both Iraq and Syria. Iraq is now largely free of IS reign, yet is still threatened by terrorism, mass population displacement and weak governance, among other ills. In parallel, now that the Syrian civil war enters its seventh bloody year, generating large numbers of casualties and millions of displaced persons, Brussels and Ankara are strongly incented to converge and/or cooperate on security policies which mitigate the escalating humanitarian crisis and ease the path to a durable peace agreement. However, finding durable solutions to address high value, high impact problems stemming from Iraq and Syria requires identifying and mitigating the causes vs symptoms of these countries’ instability and insecurity affecting Ankara’s and Brussels’ own security interests, priorities and threat perceptions. Central security priorities for the EU in post-IS Iraq include stabilization, the return of internally displaced people and refugees and eliminating violent jihadist organizations and ideologies. While Turkey shares these objectives in principle, Ankara’s security interests concentrate primarily on neutralizing the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) and its affiliates’ presence and influence. Since 2014, Ankara and Brussels have mostly bifurcated on how they perceive security threats in Syria. Turkey-EU leaders continue to disagree on the Kurd’s role in the Syrian war and how Turkey should control its borders to cut flows of foreign fighters into Syria. As the IS invaded parts of Iraq and Syria in 2014, European states began providing PKK affiliated Kurdish groups in Syria with both intelligence and military support. Alternately, since the Kurdistan Region of Iraq held its referendum for independence on 25 September 2017, EU and Turkish leaders have mostly converged on how they perceive security threats in Iraq with both staunchly supporting the country’s territorial integrity, thus, both refused to recognize the referendum’s legitimacy. We consider the issue of terrorism as a highly relevant driver of EU and Turkish security policies, perceptions and priorities. Though we see both countries as highly concerned with this issue, they diverge on which organizations pose the greatest threat. Ankara places the PKK at the top of its terrorist list – both within its borders and across the region – while Brussels prioritizes neutralizing jihadi terrorist threats on its soil, thus, the probability of convergence and cooperation and positive impact on EU-Turkey relations is moderate for this issue. Moreover, the IS is not given the same degree of priority by the two sides in the neighbourhood, including Iraq and Syria. Unlike the EU, Turkey considers the threat posed by the IS equal to the one posed by the PKK, but not as strategic. Here, the two sides diverge. In sum, dissent between Brussels and Ankara is highly likely given the Turkish Armed Forces’ broad kinetic engagement in both Iraq and Syria which negatively impacts EU and US efforts to roll back terrorism, stabilise the region, deliver humanitarian aid and help displaced persons return to their homes. Thus, regardless of whether Baghdad and/or Damascus formally grant Ankara permission to launch assaults, the EU views these actions as bellicose destabilizers competing with its own interests, thus, degrades EU-Turkey relations. Ultimately, this study calls for the EU and Turkey to prioritize mending cracks and fissures in their relationship and focus on the gains to be made through rapprochement on security issues originating in Iraq and Syria. Likewise, the EU can use its tremendous mediating capacity as an honest broker to settle entrenched disputes between warring parties in Iraq and Syria and for Turkey restart the peace process at home. More than ever, both must develop a long-term strategic security framework to ensure that bilateral security interests, priorities and interventions do not derail current stabilisation and reconstruction procedures in Iraq and/or progress toward a durable peace in Syria.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, and Syria

905. State-building: A Roadmap for the Rule of Law and Institutionalisation in the Kurdistan Region

Author:: Dlawer Ala'Aldeen
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: Despite frequent digressions, the system of governance in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) has made significant progress. However, this has always been influenced by internal and external political, economic, and security dynamics. In parallel, the system has inherited aspects from the former Iraqi, Middle Eastern and other models of governance- resulting in the formation of unique system. Further developing and reforming the governing system in the KRI requires a tailor-made solution that takes into account Kurdistan’s historical, cultural, religious and geographical background. Clearly the achievements and progress of the Region in the past 26 years should not be underestimated; as the KRI is in a neighbourhood bedevilled with regional powers with political agendas as well as weak or failed states. In addition, the KRI faces existential threats from violent extremist forces using the pretext of religion or nationalism in attempt to destabilise the Region. However, the KRI’s own increasing weakness is in its governance, which poses the greatest threat to its fate and future. Hence, this research-based policy book aims (1) to identify the key structural and functional weaknesses in the KRI’s governance system, and (2) to provide a 10-year roadmap capable of addressing these weaknesses. This book is an extended policy-report, a product of extensive research based on in-depth face-to-face interviews and roundtable meetings with more than 200 experts, including policy-makers, decision-makers and academics across the KRI’s governorates. In particular, the report focuses on reforming the management structures and mechanisms needed to promote the rule of law and create an environment conducive to achieving good governance, through: Adopting a transitional constitution for the KRI to serve as a framework and roadmap until the issue of the disputed territories is resolved. Transferring the political decision-making authority into the key democratic institutions. Enhancing legitimacy in the decision-making process. Maintaining the independence of government Consolidating the legislative, executive and judiciary institutions so they become sources of independent authority rather than tools for political interests. Amending dated laws and filling the numerous legislative gaps. Devolving power through administrative decentralisation and empowering local government. Enhancing the decision-making process and minimising bureaucracy. Strengthening institutions through restructuring and optimisation of staff numbers and performance. Enhancing institutional audit, monitoring and performance assessment. . Creating a tailor-made system for quality assurance, accreditation and performance management. This book provides detailed policy recommendations with the aim of introducing radical changes in the governance system, ensuring strengthened institutional structures, and empowering leadership and decision-making processes. The recommendations are designed to enhance the functionality and resilience of KRI’s system of governance in the face of future threats and crises. The public and the political leadership (including those in power and the opposition) have no choice but to engage heavily in nation- and state-building in the KRI with clear will and determination in order to achieve unity and prosperity. Left unaddressed, the status quo will not achieve the legitimate expectations of the people and will ultimately lead to failure of the entire governing system. Indubitably, reform and institutionalisation cannot be actualised in one institution or one sector of governance alone. Rather, these processes require a comprehensive and overreaching approach involving not only the public, but also the governing and opposition parties as well as the civil society.
Topic:: Reform, Political structure, Institutionalism, and State Building
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan

906. PeSCo – Anything There for European Defence?

Author:: Sandro Knezović
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: The European strategic landscape has changed dramatically over the course of the last decade. The post-Cold War mantra about the obsolescence of conventional threats in the wider European space proved to be short-sighted with developments at its eastern �lanks, while security dysfunctions in the MENA region and their immanent consequences for the safety of European citizens have loaded a heavy burden on compromise-building and decision-making in the �ield of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) of the EU. Furthermore, the approach of the new US administration to European security and the strategic consequences of Brexit have changed the wider framework in which security of 'the Old Continent' is to be determined, hence stimulating European leaders to rethink European security in a strive for strategic autonomy of their own. The very ambitiously phrased EU Global Strategy that came out in June 2016, served as both catalyst and umbrella document for such an endeavour. However, in order to achieve measurable progress in responding to contemporary security challenges, it was clear that the EU needs to develop a structural way for member states to do jointly what they were not capable of doing at the national level. This is so especially in the environment in which China, Russia and Saudi Arabia are championing the defence spending, right after the US, while European states are signi�icantly trailing behind. The fact that the EU collectively is the second largest military investor and yet far from being among the dominant military powers only emphasises the burning issue of ef�iciency of military spending and the level of interoperability among member states’ armies. High-level fragmentation of the European defence market and the fact that defence industries are kept in national clusters is clearly contributing to that. The reality on the ground is obviously challenging traditional methods of co-operation that operate mainly in ‘national boxes’ and calling for a paradigm change in the wider policy context of CSDP. However, it remains to be seen to which extent will this new security environment actually be able to push the European defence policy context over the strict national boundaries.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Military Strategy, and European Union
Political Geography:: United States, China, Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Saudi Arabia

907. Dossier 3: Syria’s Bloody and Unforgiving War

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: What to make of the war in Syria? It is a bewilderingly terrible war – so many killed, so much destruction, so many thrown out of their homes and into a hostile world. An end seems unlikely. Peace negotiations open and then close. Our latest Tricontinental dossier provides some context for this war. It offers a window into how toxic the debate has been about this conflict, how difficult it has been to agree even on the basic facts. To enrich our discussion, we present an interview with Syrian economist Omar Dahi.
Topic:: War, Conflict, Syrian War, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

908. The Mobilization of Conservative Civil Society

Author:: Richard Youngs, Gareth Fowler, Arthur Larok, Pawel Marczewski, Vijayan Mj, Ghia Nodia, Natalia Shapoavlova, Janjira Sombatpoonsiri, Marisa Von Bülow, and Özge Zihnioğlu
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: As the domain of civil society burgeoned in the 1990s and early 2000s—a crucial component of the global spread of democracy in the developing and postcommunist worlds—many transnational and domestic actors involved in building and supporting this expanding civil society assumed that the sector was naturally animated by organizations mobilizing for progressive causes. Some organizations focused on the needs of underrepresented groups, such as women’s empowerment, inclusion of minorities, and LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender) rights; others addressed broader societal issues such as economic justice, social welfare, and antipoverty concerns. In many countries, the term “civil society” came to be associated with a relatively bounded set of organizations associated with a common agenda, one separate from or even actively opposed by conservative political forces. However, in the past ten years, this assumption and outlook are proving increasingly incorrect. In many countries in the developing and postcommunist worlds, as well as in long-established Western democracies, conservative forms of civic activism have been multiplying and gaining traction. In some cases, new conservative civic movements and groups are closely associated with illiberal political actors and appear to be an integral part of the well-chronicled global pushback against Western liberal democratic norms. In other cases, the political alliances and implications of conservative civil society are less clear. In almost all cases—other than perhaps that of the United States, where the rise of conservative activism has been the subject of considerable study—this rising world of conservative civil society has been little studied and often overlooked. This report seeks to correct this oversight and to probe more deeply into the rise of conservative civil society around the world. It does so under the rubric of Carnegie’s Civic Research Network project, an initiative that aims to explore new types of civic activism and examine the extent to which these activists and associations are redrawing the contours of global civil society. The emerging role and prominence of conservative activism is one such change to civil society that merits comparative examination. Taken as a whole, the report asks what conservative civic activism portends for global civil society. Its aim is not primarily to pass judgment on whether conservative civil society is a good or bad thing—although the contributing authors obviously have criticisms to make. Rather, it seeks mainly to understand more fully what this trend entails. Much has been written and said about anticapitalist, human rights, and global justice civil society campaigns and protests. Similar analytical depth is required in the study of conservative civil society. The report redresses the lack of analytical attention paid to the current rise of conservative civil society by offering examples of such movements and the issues that drive them. The authors examine the common traits that conservative groups share and the issues that divide them. They look at the kind of members that these groups attract and the tactics and tools they employ. And they ask how effective the emerging conservative civil society has been in reshaping the political agenda.
Topic:: Civil Society, Politics, Political Activism, and Conservatism
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, Europe, South Asia, Turkey, Ukraine, Caucasus, Middle East, India, Poland, Brazil, South America, Georgia, North America, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

909. The Afghan Taliban's Relationship with Pakistan

Author:: Safi Khalilullah and Joseph Mohr
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: This paper seeks to reflect the views of those fighting the Afghan government, which includes the movement of the Afghan Taliban. The movement of the Afghan Taliban grew out of multiple sources, but came mainly from primarily local bands of religious students who joined the anti-Communist uprising of Afghan religious scholars. These bands of religious students captured branches in some of the Pakistan-based religious resistance parties, and were frequently integrated in provincial organizations as separate “fronts” inside Afghanistan. The religious students did not appropriate the modernizing Islamist discourse of Hezb-i Islami and other parties, but demanded the creation of an Islamic system of governance, the "Islamic Emirate," headed by the commander of the faithful (amir al-muminin), and not a President. This vision was realized in 1998, two years after the fall of Kabul. Pakistani support had been used up to this point by all parties in order to capture power in Afghanistan as a tactic. With the fall of the Islamic Emirate, this tactic changed to become the strategy for their survival, come-back and counter-offensive. Every time the Taliban used Pakistan in order to secure their leadership, establishing command centers, recruitment, or any other activity, the increasing reliance colored their whole activity. In the matter of recruitment, this meant that Pakistani youth would be admitted into the Afghan Taliban ranks as full members. Ultimately, this reliance also opened up the Afghan Taliban to Pakistani penetration and influence. Mullah Omar, the “amir al-muminin” tried to counter this trend by relocating into hiding inside Afghanistan, where he also died. In the process, he had ceded much actual control to his messengers, who could operate in Pakistan and the world in his name. The article provides an overview of Mullah Omar’s movements between Afghanistan and Pakistan after the fall of the Taliban Emirate up to his death. In light of President Trump speech on 21 August 2017, and subsequent briefings by Secretary of Defense Mattis and General Dunford to the Senate on 3 October, a stronger focus of the United States on Pakistan’s role in supporting the Taliban is evident. The views of the Taliban and Al-Qaida operatives on the role played by Pakistan appear to support this shift in American focus from President Obama’s approach.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, and Al Qaeda
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Middle East

910. Russian Weapons in the Syrian Conflict

Author:: Douglas Barrie and Howard Gethin
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: In September 2015, the Russian military, predominantly though not exclusively through the use of air power, intervened in Syria’s civil war. Moscow’s aim appears to have been to bolster the Bashar al-Assad regime with even a comparatively modest Russian force, to allow it to prevail against the disparate array for opposition forces reined against the Baath administration. As 2017 drew to a close this appeared to be paying off, with the Syrian regime in an increasingly strong position, and the Russian political and military leadership effectively proclaiming success and the end of substantive hostilities. Russia’s credibility as an ally has been enhanced in the region and beyond.
Topic:: Civil War, Imperialism, Military Strategy, and Weapons
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria

911. Projecting stability in practice? NATO’s new training mission in Iraq

Author:: Kevin Koehler
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: Since the 2016 Warsaw Summit, the notion of projecting stability has made a return to NATO’s policy discourse. A central tenet of this agenda is the idea of securing the Alliance by stabilizing its periphery: “If our neighbours are more stable, we are more secure”, says the Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. At the core of this approach is therefore an attempt at shaping the security environment in NATO’s neighbourhood, relying to a significant extent on partnership with individual countries and other international organizations. But how does projecting stability work in practice? Can NATO develop a type of small-footprint, large-effect interaction with partners in its periphery? How can potential interest asymmetries between NATO and partners be addressed in this context? The new NATO
Topic:: NATO, Imperialism, Regional Cooperation, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Iraq, Europe, North Atlantic, Middle East, and North America

912. Egypt, a future gas supplier to the European Union?

Author:: Jan Mazač and Lukáš Tichý
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:: The main objective of the external dimension of the EU energy policy in line with the Energy Union strategy is primarily to ensure energy security by diversifying external energy supplies, transport routes and suppliers, mainly in the gas domain. Egypt’s recent offshore and onshore gas discoveries increased its natural gas reserves estimate. Its natural gas production is thus expected to double in 2020 and transform the country back into a gas supplier in the eastern Mediterranean region. The European Union (EU) should thus strengthen its relations with Egypt to allow its gas production to reach European markets.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Markets, Oil, European Union, and Gas
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, North America, and Egypt

913. “We Didn’t Think It Would Hit Us:” Understanding the Impact of Attacks on Schools in Syria

Author:: Save Syrian Schools
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:: “Everything changed.” Such are the words of a young Syrian student speaking about the aftermath of an attack on his school that took the lives of his brother and friends and forever changed his. He now works in a tailor’s office because he could no longer bear going to school, carrying with him the memories of that day and the loved ones he lost. His story is just one among countless others of lives irrevocably changed as the result of attacks on schools and the loss, not only of loved ones, but of childhood, innocence, and opportunity. Worse, it is not just individual lives that have been changed. The widespread attacks on schools during the country’s brutal conflict have torn apart families, left behind shells of formerly vibrant communities, and altered the future of Syrian society. The report, “‘We Didn’t Think It Would Hit Us:’ Understanding the Impact of Attacks on Schools in Syria,” examines attacks on schools from multiple angles: from the legal implications of such attacks to the everyday impact on the lives of students, teachers, families, and society at large. The findings leave no doubt that the impacts are as numerous as they are vast and, at best, will take decades to meaningfully address. Of course, such a process cannot even really begin until the ongoing onslaught of violence against Syrian civilians stops and real action is taken to reverse the country’s rapid spiral from repression to peaceful protest to brutal armed conflict in response to these protests. The report has been years in the making, and the process of writing it is in itself notable. It began when 11 organizations—10 Syrian and one international—came together in search of a way to combat the growing fatigue beginning to afflict Syrian activists, as a result of documenting increasingly abhorrent and unending violations of human rights and against a backdrop unfulfilled promises of action and accountability. At the start of the conflict, these activists and other civil society actors coalesced quickly, creating transitional justice proposals and post-conflict road maps. They documented violations based on the belief that the conflict would end quickly and those responsible for human rights violations would be brought to justice swiftly. Of course, what has happened instead is that the conflict has only intensified with each passing year, becoming increasingly complex as more and more actors are introduced, many from outside Syria. Fatigued yet undeterred, after a series of dialogues and careful consultations with a wide set of civil society stakeholders, the 11 coauthoring organizations came together to work on a joint project—dubbed the Save Syrian Schools project—that would combine and amplify the different organizational strengths represented within the group. These capacities range from storytelling and advocacy, to large and highly credible networks of on-the-ground documenters and valuable archives of information. The result is a body of work that shines desperately needed light on the voices of Syrians affected in diverse ways by attacks on schools and calls attention to the glaring breaches of human rights that have occurred with regard to these acts of destruction. The driving force behind the year and a half of dedicated work is the desire to, first, end the violence and, second, ensure that the resulting harms are fully understood so that national and international actors alike are left with no choice but to address them through a nuanced and well-informed process of justice, acknowledgment, redress, and reform. The findings of the report are informed by several sources: the databases and archives of group members detailing individual attacks on schools and providing information on methods of attack, location, school names, casualty numbers, likely perpetrators, and so on; careful desk research with priority given to the research, publications, and other resources produced by partner organizations; and in-person field interviews and focus groups with students, teachers, school staff, parents, and local officials from communities affected by school attacks.
Topic:: Education, Terrorism, Transitional Justice, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

914. Justice for Syrian Victims Beyond Trials: The Need for New, Innovative Uses for Documentation of Human Rights Violations in Syria

Author:: Nousha Kabawat and Fernando Travesi
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:: By looking at the documentation efforts of Syrian civil society organizations, this paper challenges the notion that criminal prosecution is the sole avenue of justice available for alleged crimes in Syria. Documentation could be used for important other avenues of justice, such as acknowledgement, fulfilling victims’ right to truth, and informing and preparing future transitional justice processes. This paper makes several recommendations for what can be done with documentation to support Syrian victims.
Topic:: Civil Society, Transitional Justice, Criminal Justice, and Victims
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

915. All the World is Staged

Author:: Jack O Nassetta and Ethan P. Fecht
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:: Though much of the scrutiny into foreign interference in US political debates focuses on long-term election operations, foreign actors have now turned to social media to conduct short-term tactical operations. These operations aim to affect American attitudes toward specific US foreign and military policy, and ultimately affect the policy itself. In recent years, state actors and loosely affiliated patriotic operators have inorganically inserted themselves into the political discussion surrounding US intervention in Syria following the use of chemical weapons. Through continually evolving techniques, these “synthetic actors” are likely the main driving force behind shaping the character of the counternarrative discussion surrounding the use of chemical weapons in Syria. “All the World is Staged: An Analysis of Social Media Influence Operations against US Counterproliferation Efforts in Syria,” CNS Occasional Paper #37, seeks to analyze the tradecraft, trends, themes, and possible effects of disinformation produced by suspected synthetic actors (i.e., bots, trolls, and cyborgs) on Twitter concerning chemical weapons use in Syria. Although it is highly likely these synthetic actors exist on other social media platforms as well, this analysis focuses exclusively on Twitter, since the open nature of the platform allows for study without special access. Furthermore, we aim to improve public and academic awareness of foreign, inorganic disinformation efforts against our domestic decision-making processes. We hope that this text contributes to the efforts to prevent the erosion of the integrity of the political conversations that matter most. It concludes with salient recommendations for both policy makers and social network companies, focusing on how they can prevent synthetic actors from abusing their platforms for influence operations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Military Strategy, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

916. Is the IDF Ready for Our Next War?

Author:: David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The IDF is building an impressive capacity to crush Hezbollah, Hamas and Iranian assets in future fighting. But it must not neglect defense of the periphery or go soft on its ethos and fighting spirit.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

917. The Russians are… Leaving?

Author:: Anna Geifman
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: A controlled military disentanglement, while bound to afford Putin even greater popularity at home and perhaps rebuild his popular image abroad, by no means implies that he is about to relinquish his growing influence in the Middle East.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Hegemony, Military Affairs, and Empire
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Middle East

918. Netanyahu in India

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits India just half a year after the first historic trip of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Israel (July 2017). These visits reflect the significant expansion in relations between the two countries that has taken place since the establishment of full diplomatic relations in 1992.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Middle East, India, Israel, and Asia

919. New Storms on the Horizon

Author:: Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The recent protests in Iran are very important because they point to the Iranian leadership’s economic failures, and the consequent anger harbored by a considerable number of Iranian citizens over their country’s investments in far-off countries such as Lebanon and Syria. These investments, they feel, are at their expense
Topic:: Social Movement, Leadership, Protests, and Oppression
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

920. Israel is Worthy and Winning

Author:: David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: There are competing narratives about Israel: that it is flying-high, or that it is heading towards disaster. Wise and important actors around the world are coming to the conclusion that the first assertion is true. Israel is an anchor of sanity and a source of ingenuity in an unruly world. Israel’s strategy of vigilance, patience, and looking over the horizon for new partnerships is working.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Territorial Disputes, Anti-Semitism, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

921. A tale of Two Speeches

Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Harper and Pence have offered moral and spiritual leadership for the world. Their momentous Knesset speeches were epoch-making events.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Middle East, Canada, Israel, North America, and United States of America

922. Israel Is Not Deporting Refugees

Author:: Emmanuel Navon
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel’s policy is legal and justified. Citizens’ well-being must come before that of illegal immigrants.
Topic:: Immigration, Border Control, Refugees, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

923. ‘Fix it or Nix it’ is the Wrong Approach

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: What needs “nixing” is not the JCPOA – a piece of paper – but the Iranian nuclear infrastructure.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Infrastructure, Nuclear Power, Denuclearization, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

924. Dilemmas and Experiences of International Support for Inclusive Peacebuilding

Author:: Clare Castillejo
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: The issue of inclusive peacebuilding has moved up the international agenda in recent years. There is now unprecedented policy-level commitment among the international community to promote inclusion in conflict-affected contexts; growing evidence of the importance of inclusion for sustainable peace and development; emerging lessons on best approaches for promoting inclusion; and a recognition among international actors of the need to learn from past weaknesses in this area. This report examines the current policy context for providing international support to inclusive peacebuilding. It identifies how international actors can strengthen their efforts to promote inclusion by learning from previous experience and drawing on new knowledge and approaches. It goes on to look at how international actors have supported inclusion in three very different conflict-affected contexts, Afghanistan, Somalia and Nepal, and asks how international actors have engaged on issues of inclusion in these contexts, what factors shaped this engagement, and what the results have been.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Africa, Middle East, Asia, Nepal, and Somalia

925. Insight on Syria: The Unseen Challenges of Refugee Integration in Germany

Author:: Hanaa Masalmeh
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Weatherhead Center Undergraduate Research Fellow Hanaa Masalmeh spent a semester in Germany studying Syrian refugee integration. Her work focuses on the formal and informal structures of integration, especially on the role of women—both German and Syrian—in the integration process. This article, written by Masalmeh, is based on her research on volunteer groups in Bavaria, Germany. Names have been changed to afford privacy to the interviewees.
Topic:: Migration, Refugees, Displacement, and Integration
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Germany, and Syria

926. Insight on Syria: What Are Putin's Motives?

Author:: Rawi Abdelal and Alexandra Vacroux
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Russian President Vladimir Putin has confounded American policy makers with his agenda in the Middle East for at least the past decade. Russia’s stance has varied in its accord with Western policies, at times seeming to align—as in Libya and Yemen—and other times shirking, by showing indifference toward Iran’s nuclear program violations. Western diplomats have long puzzled over Putin’s real aims in the region and whether or not he could ever be a reliable ally. Russian airstrikes in Syria in 2015 marked a turning point in its foreign policy. Taking full advantage of the vacuum created by President Obama’s failure to intervene, Russia stepped in to lead, signaling Moscow’s new commitment to involvement in the region. Just two years prior, Putin had refused to export missiles systems to Syria, raising hopes in the West for a possible partnership that could help to stabilize the region. It was not to be. Russian officials fanned speculation and confusion about its actions in Syria. To the public, they skewed the purpose of intervention, first claiming to target Islamic State, then “terrorists” in general. In fact, Russian bombs fell on anti-Assad rebel groups, some of whom were armed and trained by US intelligence agencies. Thus began a protracted “proxy war” between the United States and Russia that continues today.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Military Intervention, and Missile Defense
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Syria, and North America

927. A Sense of Victory on Both Sides: A Recipe for Escalation in Gaza?

Author:: Amos Yadlin
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Following the "March of Return" events led by Hamas on two turbulent Fridays at the border fence between Israel and the Gaza Strip, both sides declared victory. And in the case of such a blatantly asymmetric conflict between parties with opposing aims, both sides can indeed claim victory, precisely because they are conducting parallel maneuvers. Israel operates largely on a physical dimension (protecting its sovereign territory), while Hamas works mainly on the cognitive-political level. In a world of images, intensive information campaigns, and mass media (including fake news), a sense of victory on both sides could intensify the hostilities on the Gaza border and perhaps even beyond in the coming weeks. Israel must stress that it is defending a recognized international border; clarify the legality and proportionality of its use of live fire; expand its visual documentation of the events; update Arab countries about the facts and balance the pro-Hamas messages delivered in the Arab media; and prepare for an escalation of the conflict. Finally, while focused on the immediate challenge of mass demonstrations on the Gaza border, Israel must continue to address the underlying issue: the growing distress in Gaza and the collapse of its infrastructures will make it hard for Israel to continue managing the situation with relatively low political, military, and financial costs. Mid-May will be followed by the month of Ramadan and another scorching summer. Temporary success in containing the new challenge posed by Hamas will not defuse the social-economic-military time bomb ticking in the Strip.
Topic:: Terrorism, Infrastructure, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

928. From the First Intifada to the "March of Return"

Author:: Yohanan Tzoreff
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The "March of Return" events have brought out the masses. It seems that since the first intifada the Palestinian arena has not witnessed such widespread mass participation as evident in the recent protests along the Gaza Strip border. At the same time, it is doubtful whether the crowds can deliver the same achievements they furnished in the first intifada. This is due to public suspicions regarding the intentions of both Fatah and Hamas, the absence of international and Arab support so far, and the deterrent element of Israel's response. A new chapter appears to have opened in the Israeli-Palestinian struggle, in which the Palestinian public is asked to decide which of the two paths proposed by the respective leaderships – in Ramallah and in Gaza – should be adopted. In the background are the echoes of failure of both paths – the path of negotiation and security coordination led by the Palestinian Authority, and the path of armed opposition led by Hamas. The main test now is for Hamas, as the ruler of the Strip. Will it succeed by means of the "March of Return," which it is leading but did not initiate, to extend the common denominator between the rival Palestinian camps, to heighten the motivation to maintain the tension along the border, until the planned climax on May 15? Or will it be satisfied with the attempt to place the blame for the failure of internal Palestinian reconciliation and the weakening internal reality on the Palestinian Authority leadership in Ramallah? Time will tell.
Topic:: Refugees, Conflict, Hamas, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

929. When Parallel Red Lines Meet: Recent Events in Syria in Various Contexts

Author:: Assaf Orion and Amos Yadlin
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: At the strategic level, the convergence in time and space of the events following the chemical weapons attack in Duma by the Syrian regime portend a dramatic development with substantial potential impact for Israel’s security environment. The attack on the T4 airbase, attributed to Israel, falls within the context of the last red line that Israel drew, whereby it cannot accept Iran’s military entrenchment in Syria. The attack in Duma reflects the Syrian regime’s considerable self-confidence at this time. As for Trump, the attack provides him with another opportunity to demonstrate his insistence on the red lines that he drew and take a determined stance opposite Putin. Thus, Israel’s enforcement of its red line and the United States’ enforcement of its red line have met, while Russia finds itself exerting efforts to deter both countries from taking further action that could undermine its achievements in Syria and its positioning as the dominant world power in the theater. However, the strategic convergence does not stop at Syria’s borders, and is unfolding against the backdrop of the crisis emerging around the Trump administration’s demands to improve the JCPOA, or run the risk of the re-imposition of sanctions and the US exiting the agreement. Indeed, the context is even wider, with preparations for Trump’s meeting with North Korean President Kim on the nuclear issue in the far background. Therefore, the clash between Israel and Iran in Syria on the eve of deliberations on the nuclear deal could potentially lead to a change from separate approaches to distinct issues to a broader and more comprehensive framework with interfaces and linkages between the issues.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North Korea, Syria, and North America

930. The Attack on the Chemical Weapons Targets in Syria: Doing the Minimum

Author:: Udi Dekel and Carmit Valensi
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Besides the operational success, the attack in Syria earned the United States a clear political achievement, with the enforcement of American red lines by way of a coalition with Britain and France. However, this ad hoc coalition is focused solely on preventing the use of chemical weapons in Syria, and as Trump administration spokesmen clarified, there is no change in the US policy toward Syria. As such, the United States is threatening neither the Assad regime, nor the growing Iranian presence or Russian dominance in Syria. This attack was also not enough to address definitively the violations of the rules of war and the wide-scale attacks on civilians by Assad forces, including the use of conventional weapons, such as massive bombings from the air and barrel bomb attacks from helicopters. The United States and its partners did not present a plan to guarantee that the targeted attacks against civilians – and not just chemical attacks – on the part of Assad and the coalition that supports him will not continue. However, after seven years of war, in which more than a half a million people have been killed and millions have been displaced or have become refugees, the Syrian civilian population deserves more committed international support. For its part, Israel remains alone in the campaign against the consolidation by Iran and its proxies in war-torn Syria.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hezbollah, and Chemical Weapons
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and North America

931. National Home Front Exercise "Solid Stand": Doubts concerning Civilian Preparedness for an Emergency

Author:: Meir Elran and Carmit Padan
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: "Solid Stand," the annual nation-wide exercise conducted by the Home Front Command, was held in the framework of the large IDF general staff exercise. Since the home front participation was part of a classified military exercise, the involvement of civilian parties and the general public became less relevant. As a result, the ability of the civilian organs, which play a key role in the management of any emergency, to take part in the drill was limited. This article presents a number of primary gaps in the realm of state and military readiness that must be addressed in order to improve the civilian population's preparedness for what is believed to be a high risk scenario in the next conflict.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

932. The Attack on Syria in Response to the Use of Chemical Weapons: The Legal Dimension

Author:: Pnina Sharvit Baruch
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The combined attack by the United States, Britain, and France on Syrian targets following the Assad regime's use of chemical weapons has sparked extensive debate on the strike’s strategic aspects, and how, if at all, the offensive will affect the situation and the balance of power in Syria. The attack has also aroused a legal discussion, which once again highlights the limitations of the existing rules of international law when it comes to dealing with situations where the use of force is not based on the authorization of the Security Council or derived from the right to self defense. In this context, the forceful response, in and of itself, particularly being a combined attack by a number of key states, could have an impact on the development of international law with regard to the rules regarding possible legal justifications for the use of force between states.
Topic:: United Nations, Military Strategy, UN Security Council, and Chemical Weapons
Political Geography:: United States, United Kingdom, Europe, Middle East, France, Syria, and North America

933. The Saudi Revolution

Author:: Yoel Guzansky
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: In contrast to the bottom-up Arab revolutions that took place over the past decade, the revolutionary processes currently underway in Saudi Arabia that aim to change the economic and social fabric in this conservative kingdom are driven top-down by Crown Prince and acting ruler Mohammad bin Salman from his palace in Riyadh. Bin Salman has a great deal of work to do, and it is to be hoped that his plans for changing the nature of the Saudi society and economy are more successful than several of his regional actions, led by the boycott of Qatar and the war in Yemen. In addition, it is doubtful whether the kingdom itself has the available capital and the know-how necessary to push the reforms forward. The Saudi revolution will need political and economic help from the West, because its failure will certainly have regional and international consequences. Success will require the younger generation in the kingdom to scale back its expectations and become accustomed to more austere living conditions. At the same time, Bin Salman will have to find ways of persuading foreign leaders and investors that his internal purges were designed to combat corruption and to devise means of moderating the internal pressures created by the reforms. Otherwise, both the potential achievements of the revolutionary reforms and regime stability itself are liable to be jeopardized.
Topic:: Reform, Arab Spring, Protests, and Revolution
Political Geography:: Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Persian Gulf

934. What Happened to Israel’s Policy of Ambiguity vis-à-vis Syria?

Author:: Shmuel Even
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: In March 2018, with the approval of the military censor, Israel officially assumed responsibility for destroying the Syrian nuclear reactor on September 6, 2007, in an operation against what was considered an emerging existential threat. Before the public announcement, senior Israeli officials confirmed that for several years, the IDF has attacked strategic weapons in Syria meant for Hezbollah that were considered as posing an intolerable danger to Israel. These official statements have put an end to Israel’s long-standing policy of ambiguity about a series of aerial strikes on Syrian territory.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Weapons, Hezbollah, Air Force, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Syria

935. Strengthening the JCPOA

Author:: Ephraim Asculai, Emily Landau, Daniel Shapiro, and Moshe Ya'alon
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Against the backdrop of the visit to Washington by President Macron and the scheduled visit by Chancellor Merkel in an effort to persuade US President Trump not to leave the JCPOA, this article zeros in on the key issues that need to be addressed by the allies. Guided by what is not only necessary but feasible at this late stage, the topics addressed include missiles, inspections, lack of transparency, sanctions, and the sunset provisions. Everything turns on political will – if it exists, agreeing to the proposed steps should not entail a lengthy process, and implementation can realistically begin in relatively short order. Significant results will mean the international community emerges with reinforced solidarity and a strengthened JCPOA. If negotiations progress seriously on this basis, it would make sense for the Trump administration to allow additional time beyond May 12 to complete them.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and North America

936. Israel and United States Military Assistance to Egypt

Author:: Shimon Arad
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: In January 2018, the United States and Egypt signed a bilateral communications security agreement known as the Communications Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA), which protects and regulates the use of sensitive American avionics and communications systems. This development now allows, for the first time, the acquisition by Egypt of US-made high precision GPS-based air-to-ground weapon systems and components, as well as advanced air-to-air missiles. Over the years, Israel’s concerns over the sale of large quantities of US weapon systems to Egypt were moderated by the quality cap dictated by the absence of a CISMOA agreement. Israel thus needs to raise this issue with Washington, within the context of the Qualitative Military Edge (QME) discussions. Given the unreliability of enduring stability in the Middle East, as exemplified by the events in Egypt since 2011, Israel should not disregard possible future scenarios in which its QME versus Egypt may matter. Based on the current convergence of security interests between Israel and Egypt, raising this issue with the US, though likely to upset Cairo, is not expected to undermine the practical manifestations of this relationship.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, North America, and Egypt

937. The Potential for a War on the Northern Front that None of the Parties Want: Insights from a War Game

Author:: Udi Dekel, Assaf Orion, Anat Ben Haim, and Zvi Magen
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: If Israel is in fact responsible for the April 29, 2018 attack in Syria, it is sending the message that it is determined and ready to fight a campaign to prevent Iran from consolidating its position in the northern arena, and that it will act to thwart the Iranian response. A war game conducted recently at INSS intended to clarify the boundaries of the ongoing campaign on the northern front and possible developments toward escalation between Israel and Iran and its proxies. Another goal was to consider a fundamental strategic question: is the northern arena truly one unit with two fronts – Syria and Lebanon, or is it two separate fronts operating according to different logics and reflecting distinct interests. Each of the involved actors – Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Russia, and the United States – has a shared interest in preventing escalation that could lead to war. However, escalation has a dynamic of its own, and incidental elements – unintentional outcomes along with miscalculation – have a significant influence on events and developments. The most significant challenge for Israeli policy is how to resolve its goals vis-à-vis Iran. Thus the time has come for Israel to relinquish the comfort of its position of ambiguity on Syria; to understand that as far as it is concerned, the Assad regime is the least of all evils; and to strive to drive a wedge between Assad and Iran, and between Russia and Iran.
Topic:: Civil War, Military Strategy, Armed Conflict, and War Games
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Syria

938. Who Will Make the Decision?

Author:: Gal Perl Finkel and Gilead Sher
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The Knesset has recently amended the “Basic Law: The Government,” with respect to "authority to declare war or conduct a significant military operation." Under the previous legislation, this authority was given to the government, but the new law grants the authority to the Ministerial Committee for National Security (the Security Cabinet). However, the final version of the new law goes even further, and concludes: "Under extreme circumstances and for reasons that will be noted…the prime minister and the minister of defense are authorized to make the decision in a more restricted legal quorum." Such a law has almost no equivalent in Western democracies. It lacks the checks and balances essential to a democratic regime and is bound to undermine the principle that war is an act requiring maximum domestic and international legitimacy. Yet in view of the new legislation, the Security Cabinet's work should be improved so that it will be fully familiar with the strategic matters on the agenda. In addition, both for the sake of checks and balances and the prevention of an overconcentration of authority in the hands of individuals and so that more than two elected representatives of the people bear responsibility for cardinal policy measure such as war and peace, at least the entire Security Cabinet should participate in the decision. The tactical decisions can and should be made in restricted forums, but it is best for such a momentous decision as a declaration of war to be taken in a broad forum that bears the burden of the responsibility.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Democracy, Conflict, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

939. Alone in Sa'dabad Palace: One Year since Rouhani’s Reelection

Author:: Raz Zimmt
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: One year after his reelection as President of Iran, Hassan Rouhani faces severe challenges at home and abroad. It is more difficult than ever for him to keep his promises to the public, especially his promises to improve the economic situation and expand individual freedom. His freedom of action is restricted by the conservatives controlling most of the power centers in Iran, and criticism of him by his traditional rivals on the conservative right, among the religious establishment, and in the Revolutionary Guards, as well as by his reformist supporters, is growing. The difficulties facing the President not only threaten his ability to ease the distress among Iranians; they threaten his political future in advance of the anticipated succession struggle for the post of Supreme Leader. Moreover, his failure is liable to exacerbate the public despair that is already evident in the ongoing wave of protest in the streets of Iran and further erode the legitimacy of the entire regime.
Topic:: Reform, Conservatism, Legitimacy, and Theocracy
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

940. President el-Sisi's Second Term: The Challenge of Legitimacy

Author:: Ofir Winter and Khander Sawaed
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: As expected, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was reelected Egyptian president in late March 2018, this time, with 97.08 percent of the vote. More than affording an electoral mandate, the recent elections highlighted the incumbent president's challenge of legitimacy, which is reflected in two spheres. The first is the exacerbation of the internal splits within the ruling military establishment. The second is growing alienation between the ruling establishment and the general Egyptian public and civilian elements. The precarious state of the regime's legitimacy is a cause for regional and international concern. It may detract from the regime's ability to carry out the next stages of the economic reform sponsored by the International Monetary Fund, and will complicate efforts to obtain the cooperation in the war against terrorism by the local civilian population in the Sinai Peninsula. In the medium and long terms, the enhanced internal friction in the military and tension between the ruling establishment and civilian forces may jeopardize the country's stability. The legitimacy challenge also affects Egypt's relations with Israel. The regime needs broad public legitimacy in order to incur political risks, such as controversial decisions in favor of bilateral or regional cooperation with Israel. In addition, a regime with unsteady legitimacy might be tempted to adopt a populist anti-Israel line in order to strengthen its public standing. At the same time, the political situation in Egypt also provides an opportunity for increasing bilateral cooperation with Israel in areas contributing to the regime's legitimacy: the economy, security, energy, water, agriculture, and tourism.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Legitimacy, and IMF
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt

941. The Parliamentary Elections in Lebanon: Hezbollah’s Victory within the Political Status Quo

Author:: Eldad Shavit
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: In the May 6, 2018 elections in Lebanon, the Shia bloc led by Hezbollah succeeded in increasing its power in the parliament at the expense of Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri’s party. Nevertheless, due to the country’s electoral system, the political status quo achieved in December 2016 will likely be maintained. The process of forming the government will once again reignite the power battle between Hezbollah and Iran on the one hand and al-Hariri and his supporters in Saudi Arabia and in the international community, mainly France and the United States, on the other hand. The election results will encourage Hezbollah to continue to consolidate its power and its ability to wield influence in the Lebanese political arena. The drive to promote this objective may also act as a restraining factor in the organization’s conduct vis-à-vis Israel. Therefore, at the present time, Hezbollah will presumably opt to continue to use Syria as its preferred theater for action against Israel.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Elections, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Lebanon

942. Iran in the Nuclear Realm and Iran in Syria: A New State of Play

Author:: Assaf Orion and Amos Yadlin
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Despite the two blows Iran sustained last week, Israel cannot afford to be complacent or overly satisfied. It will need to follow meticulously the updated policies adopted by each of the theater’s involved actors. Thus far, Israel has held separate policies regarding Iran’s nuclear program and the Iranian proxy war and malevolent influence. Now, it must develop an integrative long term policy and strive for coordinated efforts and meaningful cooperation with the United States, European countries, and the countries of the region. Operational and strategic coordination with Russia remains essential. Contending with the Iranian nuclear challenge will require the establishment of a joint “strategic early warning enterprise,” with the United States and other allies, aimed at preventing critical surprises.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and North America

943. The Benefit of Exposing the Iranian Nuclear Archive

Author:: Shmuel Even
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Israel’s exposure of the Iranian nuclear archive was an impressive and professional operation. It was meant to help prepare public opinion for President Trump’s statement and to make it more difficult for the other leaders who are party to the agreement and who are in no hurry to enter into a confrontation with Iran. In light of the importance of the great threat that Iran poses to Israel, the exposure operation was a vital step in a long struggle. The alternative of not exposing the material would have meant giving up the chance of using the information to create cognitive value and leaving it in the archives of the intelligence community.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, and North America

944. Israel Apartheid Week 2018

Author:: Michal Hatuel-Radoshitzky
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: In comparison to previous years, the 2018 Israel Apartheid Week (IAW) was somewhat smaller in scope, and calmer in the level of energies it generated among both protagonists and antagonists. Still, it would be unwise to dismiss the IAW phenomenon as insignificant. In addition to the repercussions of the cumulative effect of efforts to delegitimize Israel in general, and efforts to equate Israel with apartheid during IAW in particular, the growing number of Jewish students who support and even instigate passionate campaigning against Israel is troubling. While the Israeli government's controversial policies vis-à-vis the Israeli-Palestinian conflict fuel some of the events, IAW, similar to the BDS campaign, should not be mistaken for a pro-peace, pro-two-state, or pro-dialogue endeavor. Thus, both the State of Israel and Israel supporters should be minded toward engaging in a long term effort; strive to develop quantifying and measurement indices capable of obliterating the "noise" generated by IAW; monitor new trends in the phenomenon; and enable free and secure flow of knowledge between all relevant players in their efforts to counter IAW events. Findings also emphasize the state's important role in working systematically and strategically to bridge between the Jewish communities in Israel and in the Diaspora.
Topic:: Apartheid, Diaspora, Protests, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

945. The Future of Jerusalem: Between Public Opinion and Policy

Author:: Zipi Israeli and Udi Dekel
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The waves of terror in Jerusalem in recent years have disproved two false assumptions that have long guided Israeli governments. The first is that it is possible to maintain the status quo in the city, including on the Temple Mount. The second false assumption is that Jerusalem is a united city. This line of thinking is at odds with the reality in the east of the city, especially the neighborhoods and villages where for 51 years, neglect has reigned supreme and few Israeli Jews ever enter. Even now, Israeli control there is limited, especially in areas on the outer side of the security barrier. A clear majority of Israelis agree that today, in practice, Jerusalem is divided into a Jewish city and an Arab city. Consequently, a string of urgent actions is needed, first and foremost improvements to municipal services, infrastructures, and quality of life in East Jerusalem, as well as incentives to involve the Arab population in the Jerusalem municipal authority. Most of the Israeli Jewish public feels that the current reality in Jerusalem is highly problematic and difficult to sustain forever. Therefore, at present there is growing openness to new and creative ideas, and the steps proposed to improve living conditions support a range of future options for East Jerusalem.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Refugee Crisis, Borders, and Public Policy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

946. The European Union after the United States Withdrawal from the JCPOA

Author:: Shimon Stein
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: President Trump’s announcement that the United States would withdraw from the JCPOA is the most recent development in a series of unilateral decisions by the administration that have thrown relations between the US and its European allies into a crisis. In the short term, Germany, France, and Britain, like the European Union as a whole, will need to confront their relations with Iran vis-à-vis the nuclear deal against the background of the American withdrawal, and in the long term, their future relations with the United States. Indeed, the crisis stemming from the agreement with Iran is a symptom of the fundamental disagreement that has characterized US-Europe relations since President Trump entered the White House, which reflects only limited commitment by the US to multilateral frameworks. Still, Europe’s dependence on the United States in the realm of security and economics is significant, and it has no potential alternative in the foreseeable future. As for Israel, even if many members of the European Union understand Israel’s need to contend with the threats posed by Iran, the EU is not party to the opposition of Prime Minister Netanyahu to the nuclear deal. It is therefore still unclear how Europe will respond to Israel’s position, which encouraged a situation whereby the deal that the Europeans regarded as an achievement of recent European foreign policy, and as a tool for achieving stability in the Middle East, will be erased.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Military Affairs, European Union, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, North America, and Israel

947. Lebanon’s 2017 Parliamentary Election Law

Author:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:: A new Lebanese government was established in December 2016 and enacted a new election law in 2017. The new law will be in force for parliamentary elections scheduled to be held on May 6, 2018, the first since June 2009. The law’s passage is a significant achievement when considering the fragmented, complex and shifting nature of Lebanon’s politics, which is dominated by two major political and electoral alliances and overlaid by regional rivalries. The new law, however, is not likely to change the political landscape or bring an end to confessionalism in politics, which remains the overall goal in the country’s Constitution. To help you understand this important electoral law, the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) provides a briefing paper on Lebanon’s 2017 Parliamentary Election Law. The paper provides an analysis of the new election law in comparison to the 2008 election law.
Topic:: Law, Elections, Democracy, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

948. Making Aid Work in Lebanon: Promoting aid effectiveness and respect for Rights in Middle-Income Countries Affected by Mass Displacement

Author:: Bachir Ayoub and Dima Mahdi
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Lebanon currently hosts the largest number of refugees per capita in the world. Donors have recognized the scale of the challenge and have offered support both in the form of humanitarian assistance and in multi-year development financing. This briefing paper is based on extensive research conducted in partnership with the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies (LCPS). It urges donors and policy makers to ensure that new financing to Lebanon is rights-based, accountable to local populations, reflects local priorities, benefits the most vulnerable and does not exacerbate pre-existing structural issues.
Topic:: Foreign Aid, Refugee Crisis, Displacement, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

949. Leadership Targeting as a Counterterrorism Strategy: The Nigerian Experience

Author:: Gbemisola Animasawun
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: This paper examines the implications of leadership decapitation as a counterterrorism tactic using as case studies, the killings of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden by the US and Boko Haram leader Mohammed Yusuf by Nigeria. It is based on Alex S. Wilner’s method of comparing the number of attacks a group successfully carried out before and after the removal of its leader as a means of ascertaining its weakness, demise, or renewed ferocity due to the death of its leader.12 This study gives an account of the unprecedented increase in the number of Boko Haram attacks and the high level of fear and attention—both local and international—due to the high-level targets chosen by the group after the killing of Mohammed Yusuf. This is complemented by primary data gathered through semi-structured interviews with selected security operatives who had contact with Yusuf and his successor Abubakar Shekau. For al-Qaeda, data was collected from secondary sources only. This study begins by summarizing the origin and agenda of violent Islamism, followed by arguments for and against leadership decapitation. Next, it considers accounts of the evolution of al-Qaeda and Boko Haram, their experience of leadership decapitation, and the ferocity of both groups in the aftermath of leadership decapitation. Finally, it examines the overall implications of leadership decapitation for counterterrorism efforts in light of the post-decapitation recovery and increase in reach of both al-Qaeda and Boko Haram. The two cases of leadership decapitation examined in this article are telling cases that invite closer attention to the implications of counterterrorism strategies.13
Topic:: Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Refugee Crisis, Leadership, and Boko Haram
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, Middle East, and Nigeria

950. Children in the Levant: Insights from Belgium on the Dilemmas of Repatriation and the Challenges of Reintegration

Author:: Rik Coolsaet and Thomas Renard
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: According to intelligence estimates, there are around 1,400 European children in Syria and Iraq, many of them born there. The fate of these children confronts European governments with moral, legal, political, diplomatic and security dilemmas. Governments are divided over the issue, but almost all are reluctant to address it head-on. None have taken a proactive stance with regard to these children, creating several security voids. This policy brief looks into the fate of these European children before exploring in more detail the situation of the Belgians among them. It analyses the position of the Belgian government with regard to repatriation and reviews existing policies concerning returning children. The authors end up with a number of recommendations for Belgian and European authorities, including a plea for a more proactive response.
Topic:: Security, Children, Displacement, and Reparations
Political Geography:: Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Belgium, and Syria

951. Why It Matters What We Do: Arab Citizens' Perceptions of the European Union after the 2011 Uprisings

Author:: Kressen Thyen
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: In the Middle East and North Africa, EU foreign policy has tended to prioritise regime stability over democratisation. Existing research has argued that this could create anti‐European sentiment in the respective populations. However, empirical evidence on the relationship between the EU’s stance towards regime change and citizen attitudes remains rare. Focusing on Morocco and Egypt, this study uses a mixed‐methods approach, combining qualitative case studies with original survey data to examine whether the EU’s divergent responses to the 2011 uprisings in these two countries are mirrored in regime opponents’ support for EU cooperation.
Topic:: Social Movement, European Union, Democracy, Arab Spring, and Protests
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, Egypt, and Morocco

952. Israel Must Rule Generously in Jerusalem

Author:: David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Investment in eastern Jerusalem is the core of sovereign political action that will keep Jerusalem whole and make it prosperous for all.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Territorial Disputes, Democracy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

953. When Will The Next War Begin?

Author:: Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: It must be made clear to Israel’s rivals in both the north and the south that they will pay a very serious price for attacking Israel.
Topic:: Defense Policy, War, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

954. Toward a New Model for the U.S.-Israel Relationship

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: By leveraging its remarkable achievements in the fields most relevant to future conflicts, Israel can transition from dependence on the U.S. to partnership.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

955. Waking Up to the Iranian Threat

Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: With the weakening of ISIS, the growing strength of Russia in Syria, and the continuing retraction of American involvement in the region – Iran apparently feels emboldened enough to escalate its confrontation with Israel.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, and ISIS
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America

956. The Demand for Sovereignty over Judea and Samaria is a Waste of Zionist Energy

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The longing for Jewish sovereignty over the historic homeland of the Jewish people is understandable. Nevertheless, the recent attempt to pass a law declaring Israeli sovereignty over the settlements in Judea and Samaria is useless.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Territorial Disputes, Law, and Zionism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

957. The Arrest of Saleh Muslim: Escalation in Kurdish-Turkish Tensions

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: How the arrest of this Kurdish leader is handled will indicate the extent to which the Syrian Kurds’ central role in the fight against the Islamic State has accrued some broader political legitimacy for their leadership. This, in turn, has implications for the troubled relationship between the West and Turkey.
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, Islamic State, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Kurdistan

958. Hoping for Regime Change in Iran

Author:: David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Might more be done to advance an Iranian counter-revolution? Uri Lubrani certainly thought so, and he was not naive.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regime Change, and Governance
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

959. What a Crown Prince Wants

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Funds and favor for Saudi Arabia 2.0, and also to smash Iran.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Saudi Arabia

960. On the State of Israel’s role in combating anti-Semitism

Author:: David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The Global Forum for Combating Anti-Semitism, which met last week in Jerusalem, needs focus.
Topic:: Religion, Governance, Discrimination, Diversity, and Anti-Semitism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

961. The missing piece of the puzzle

Author:: Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Given the bad nuclear deal signed with Iran, Israel must be diligent about risk management; no matter how relentless intelligence gathering efforts are, not all threats can be countered. Israel will not allow enemy states to go nuclear.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

962. The Sultan’s Pleasure: Turkey Expands Operations in Syria and Iraq

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: All indications suggest that for Turkey, the recent battles were only a phase in a larger process. So where might Turkey turn next? And what is the goal of the Turkish campaign?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Minorities, and Discrimination
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, and Kurdistan

963. After the Latest Chemical Attack, the US Should Stay in Syria

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel and America must avoid one-fit-all options regarding the military challenges in different parts of disintegrating Syria.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America

964. Israel won’t tolerate Iranian presence in Syria

Author:: Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Russia may demand due consideration, but Israel has proved time and again that it will not allow Iran to tighten its grip on Syria, even if doing so stokes regional tensions.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

965. The Holy Sepulchre Wake-up Call

Author:: Lazar Berman and David Gurevich
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Crises between the State of Israel and Christian institutions will continue to arise, unnecessarily, until Israel creates a central authority to manage a coordinated strategy regarding relations with Christians.
Topic:: Religion, Governance, Minorities, and Discrimination
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

966. Global tensions: No end in sight

Author:: Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: With global tensions on the rise, Israel could find itself alone, both in the struggle to prevent a nuclear Iran and in trying to contain Iran’s actions in Syria.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

967. Trump’s Promo?

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The American-British-French strike in Syria should be seen as an exercise in building Western deterrence and creditability in advance of the decision expected next month regarding the nuclear deal with Iran
Topic:: International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Britain, Europe, Iran, Middle East, France, Syria, North America, and United States of America

968. The Great Distraction of Punitive Airstrikes

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Don’t congratulate the administration on avoiding Russian retaliation. The humanitarian crisis in Syria remains, and the real collision course here is between Israel and Iran.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Conflict, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

969. Erdogan’s Shadow Army: The Influence of “Sadat,” Turkey’s Private Defense Group

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: “Sadat” is heavily involved in Ankara’s training of Syrian Sunni rebels for the fight against Assad.
Topic:: Civil War, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

970. 70 years of strategic success

Author:: David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Despite military threats and other challenges, the State of Israel is winning on all fronts. Israel is stronger and healthier than all its enemies combined.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

971. Macron’s Message: Towards a New Deal with Iran?

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The French president’s visit to served to demonstrate Macron’s importance as a dynamic and proactive European player, and as a partner in the effort to curb Iran’s strategic ambitions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and France

972. Capture of the Iranian nuclear documents: A fantastic intelligence feat

Author:: Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Iran should understand that Israel has the ability to reach the most sensitive places in Tehran.
Topic:: Intelligence, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

973. Capture of the Iranian nuclear documents: A fantastic intelligence feat

Author:: Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Iran should understand that Israel has the ability to reach the most sensitive places in Tehran.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Intelligence, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

974. Persuading Europe to pressure Iran

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel’s revelation of Iran’s nuclear deception aims to show the world that the 2015 deal with Iran must indeed be renegotiated in the interests of global peace.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, Peace, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Israel

975. The depth of Iran’s deception

Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Many criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s unveiling of a secret Iranian nuclear archive as “nothing new” and “a performance.” But there was plenty new in his presentation, and it will have far-reaching implications.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Intelligence, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

976. Trump Changes the Discourse

Author:: David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The broader context to US President Trump’s recent decisions to nix the nuclear deal with Iran and to move the US embassy to Jerusalem is restoration of America’s credibility as a world power after eight years of diffident presidential leadership.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

977. Tehran is paying a heavy price

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The Iranian provocation on the Golan Heights failed, and the Iranians would do well to cut their losses now and end their confrontation with Israel.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

978. Don’t ease-up on Iran

Author:: Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel’s intelligence branches need to understand what was destroyed and then identify where and how Iran intends to push its military build-up forward – and neutralize that as well.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

979. Under fire but unfazed, Israel plays the waiting game with Iran

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Does Israel require that all presence of the Iranians be removed from Syria, down to the last proxy fighter? If so, then conflict between Tehran and Jerusalem is a near inevitability, since there is no chance of Iran acquiescing to this except by coercion. On the other hand, if the Israeli intention is to prevent the Iranians from transferring certain weapons systems into Syria — advanced anti-aircraft systems, ballistic missiles, drones — then conflagration may not be so imminent.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Drones, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

980. The Fourth Trilateral Eastern Mediterranean Summit

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Amidst the tensions and transformations even of these dramatic days – the American withdrawal from the Iran deal, the violent confrontation in Syria, the ongoing Hamas provocations on the Gaza border, and the opening of the US embassy in Jerusalem – it was easy to lose sight of another landmark event. It is remarkable that by now a tripartite summit of Prime Minister Netanyahu and his fellow eastern Mediterranean leaders – President Anastasiades of Cyprus and Prime Minister Tsipras of Greece – is no longer remarked upon. Their meeting was the fourth of its kind. It has now become part of a broader pattern of consolidated cooperation between the three countries. Still, the (exceedingly long) joint statement issued in Nicosia on May 8 is a striking document. Like its predecessors (January 28, 2016 in Nicosia, December 8, 2016 in Jerusalem, and June 15, 2017 in Thessaloniki), the statement asserts that this is not an exclusive club. “Like minded” nations are urged to join the efforts to make the eastern Mediterranean safer, more stable and more prosperous.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Peace
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

981. Gaza Prejudice and Perfidy

Author:: David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: What is Western support for “Israel’s right to exist within secure and recognized borders” worth if those borders cannot be defended?
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, Minorities, Discrimination, and Borders
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

982. Erdogan: Anti-Semite and regional threat

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel should ring the alarm bells about Turkish adventurism. Under Erdogan, Turkey has become a dangerous country on the road to authoritarianism.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Leadership, Conflict, and Anti-Semitism
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Asia

983. 10 reasons to tank the F-35 jet sale to Turkey

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Turkey is no longer a reliable Western ally. Provision of the F-35 jet would strengthen Erdogan’s authoritarian Islamist regime and boost its capabilities for regional mischief.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Military Affairs, Authoritarianism, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

984. The diplomatic day after Abbas

Author:: David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel should be preparing for a paradigm change with regard to administration of the territories; a move beyond rotten reliance on Fatah leadership and the creaky two-state construct.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Peace, Anti-Semitism, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

985. War’s Future: The Risks and Rewards of Grey-Zone Conflict and Hybrid Warfare

Author:: David Carment
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: Today’s geopolitical conflicts, especially among great powers, involve a desire to fundamentally revise the order of alliances as well as solidify new norms of conduct. The purpose of our paper is to delineate two distinct phenomena in international affairs – hybrid warfare, which emphasizes the tactical level and grey-zone conflicts, which incorporates a long-term strategic dimension into international disputes. We argue that hybrid warfare can be a tactical subset of grey-zone conflict deployed under certain conditions and in varying degrees. We examine four case studies: China’s application of ‘unrestricted warfare’, Russia’s strategy of ‘hybrid balancing’, ‘regional hybridism’ practiced by Israel and ‘restricted hybridism’ applied by Canada/NATO globally. We conclude that the solution to challenges from Russia and China is not a military one but a political and collective one based on baseline requirements for building resilience. Israel, on the other hand, is largely uninterested in the revision of order of alliances and will continue to utilize its tactical advantage vis-à-vis regional neighbors to achieve victories in short conflicts. We conclude that NATO (and Canada) should work more closely with the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and the European Union to effectively extend security guarantees to its members. In doing so Canada and likeminded countries will involve the costs of engaging in hybrid warfare and the subsequent erosion of democratic accountability.
Topic:: NATO, War, Geopolitics, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, Middle East, Canada, Israel, and Asia

986. Game On: The new strategy of the US and its allies in the Middle East

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Bad management, corruption and a failure of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to generate expected levels of foreign investment compound the problem.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

987. Hamas’ Junior Partner, Iran’s Hidden Hand

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel must make it clear to Hamas that letting Islamic Jihad trigger another widespread escalation does not serve its interests or its continued existence.
Topic:: Terrorism, Conflict, State Funding, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

988. Iran’s Response: The ‘Strategy of Tension’

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Iran enjoyed and benefited from the moment when the Arab world was at its most fragmented, and the West at its most rudderless.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Hegemony
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

989. Winning Hasbara Strategies

Author:: David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The deep “psychological asymmetry” employed by Hamas and Fatah as a strategic weapon against Israel is working. How to handle this? Here are five strategies, including this: Don’t be embarrassed by Israel’s strength. Admit to it. Flaunt it. Better shock-and-awe than shrink-and-whimper.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

990. Will Israel Once Again Turn its Back on Those Who Have Been on its Side?

Author:: Eran Lerman and Nir Boms
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel may soon face a dilemma. The “arrangement” with Russia as to the future of Syria may stave-off an Iranian presence but will pose an existential danger to the groups of rebels near the border – groups which have worked closely with the IDF to prevent direct friction with hostile elements on the line of contact. It is vital that the solutions to this challenge demonstrate to future partners that Israel does not turn its back on those who have assisted it facing a common threat.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

991. The US should have Left the UN Human Rights Council Years Ago

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The UNHRC was hopelessly biased, obsessed with Israel, and highly tolerant towards a full range of human rights abusers.
Topic:: Human Rights, United Nations, UN Human Rights Council (HRC), and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

992. Netanyahu’s Visit to Amman: A Timely Reminder of Jordan’s Strategic Importance

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel’s national interest, and the broader patterns of cooperation among key regional partners in the “camp of stability,” require close attention to the needs of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. For decades, it has been, and remains, part of Israel’s strategic depth.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Jordan

993. The Target: Infrastructure

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: If recruiting a disgraced former official with no access to updated information is the best Iran’s spymasters could do, Israel’s intelligence superiority is in no danger.
Topic:: Intelligence, Military Strategy, Infrastructure, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

994. Justice for the Victims: How Canada Should Manage Returning “Foreign Fighters”

Author:: Kyle Matthews
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: The U.S.-led international coalition has dislodged the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) from the cities it had occupied and controlled, namely Mosul and Raqqa. But while the group is weakened, it lives on and remains dangerous. Both the U.S. Department of Defense and the UN estimate that approximately 30,000 ISIS fighters remain in those countries. At the same time, a significant number of “foreign fighters” have fled Iraq and Syria. Numerous countries are struggling to find policy solutions with regards to managing the return of their nationals who had joined the group. The Canadian government has stated publicly that it favors taking a comprehensive approach of reintegrating returnees back into society. Very few foreign fighters who have returned to Canada have been prosecuted. Canada has both a moral and legal duty to seek justice and uphold the most basic human rights of vulnerable populations. ISIS and other jihadist groups engaged in systematic mass atrocities against minorities in Iraq and Syria, including Christians and Shiites. ISIS has demonstrated a particular disdain for the Yazidi minority in Iraq, and the Canadian government has recognized the group’s crimes against the Yazidis as genocide. As a State Party to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court and a signatory of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, Canada has a responsibility to uphold these international legal conventions when formulating carefully crafted policy responses that deal with returning foreign fighters. Canada should attempt to prosecute its nationals in domestic courts using the Crimes Against Humanity and War Crimes Act. Open trials can serve as means by which to lay bare ISIS’ narrative and to help counter violent extremism and future atrocities. They can also serve as a deterrent and warning to other Canadians who might try to join ISIS as it mutates and moves to other countries in the world, such as Libya, Afghanistan, Egypt, the Philippines, Pakistan, or heaven forbid, in Mali where Canadian peacekeepers have recently been deployed. If Canada truly stands for multiculturalism, pluralism, the rule of law, global justice, human rights, and the liberal international order, then we must stand firm and take a principled stand to prosecute those who have fought under the ISIS banner. That includes our own citizens.
Topic:: Crime, Human Rights, Terrorism, Islamic State, Justice, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Canada, Syria, North America, and United States of America

995. ‘Mowing the grass’ in Gaza

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Because ending terrorism from Gaza is unrealistic, Israel has wisely adopted a strategy of attrition. If there is soon to be a large-scale ground operation, conquering the whole Strip should not be the goal.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

996. Why Don’t Europeans Get It?

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: As the memory of the Holocaust fades, traditional anti-Semitism that turns into anti-Israel attitudes is no longer politically incorrect.
Topic:: Holocaust, Memory, Anti-Semitism, and State Building
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

997. Moving the Markers

Author:: David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The Clinton-Obama parameters haven’t worked – not for 25 years of peacemaking efforts since Oslo. They have lead to deadlock and much suffering. Let’s give the Trump team credit for taking a fresh look at what is safe, wise, fair and realistic in today’s Israeli-Palestinian reality.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Territorial Disputes, Leadership, Borders, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

998. Thwart Turkey’s Jerusalem Incursion

Author:: David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel should be defending itself against Erdogan by blocking his Jerusalem incursion, and taking the offensive against Erdogan by impeding his military build-up.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Authoritarianism, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Asia

999. The Fall of Dera’a

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: It remains deeply open to question as to whether Putin has either the will or the capability to prevent Iranian deployment in the border area.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Conflict, and Borders
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Israel

1000. Is southern Syria heading for ‘Lebanonization’?

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The likely emergent picture in Syria, as in Lebanon, is the ongoing consolidation of another IRGC project, in the framework of a weakened and truncated Arab state, along with an ongoing Israeli effort to deter the masters of this project from acts of aggression.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Conflict, Borders, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS