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62. A New Mediterranean Political Landscape? The Arab Spring and Euro-Mediterranean Relations
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The Arab Spring has placed the Mediterranean region at the centre of the international agenda. The popular uprisings that originated in Tunisia soon expected to other countries acquiring a regional dimension. The political processses that have emerged as a consequence of the protests have so far responded to three different dynamics: revolution, repression and reforms. In the first place, in revolutionary countries - such as Tunisia and Egypt - the protests gave put an end to authoritarian regimes and made possible the beginning of a new-born political order. Secondly, repressive regimes - such as Libya and Syria- have spared no efforts to silence criticism and to disperse the protests with excessive use of force, committing mass human rights violations. In the third place, reformist governments - such as Morocco and Jordan - have adopted political reforms in a wise move, giving an evolutionary response to revolutionary demands. With such a wide range of possible scenarios, it necessary to question the validity of the concept of Arab Spring as a regional phenomenon, since it is a term that encompasses national realities of a very different nature.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Politics, Popular Revolt, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Arab Countries, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia
63. Spring Tide: Will the Arab risings yield democracy, dictatorship or disorder?
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- Five months after the Arab uprising started in Tunisia, it has become possible to glimpse the likely outcomes for the region. The first section of this report traces the main political scenarios.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, Morocco, Tunisia, and Oman
64. The Syrian People's Slow-motion Revolution
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Syrian uprising has defied conventional expectations and patterns established elsewhere in the region from the outset. It happened, first of all, and to many that in itself was surprising enough. The regime was not alone in believing in a form of Syrian exceptionalism that would shield it from serious popular unrest. Once the uprising began, it did not develop quickly, as in Egypt or Tunisia. Although it did not remain peaceful, it did not descend into a violent civil war, as in Libya, or sectarian affair, as in Bahrain. To this day, the outcome remains in doubt. Demonstrations have been growing in impressive fashion but have yet to attain critical mass. Regime support has been declining as the security services' brutality has intensified, but many constituents still prefer the status quo to an uncertain and potentially chaotic future. What is clear, however, is the degree to which a wide array of social groups, many once pillars of the regime, have turned against it and how relations between state and society have been forever altered.
- Topic:
- Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Tunisia
65. Iran in the shadow of the 2009 presidential elections
- Author:
- Rouzbeh Parsi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- In the past two years the Iranian domestic political scene has undergone a major upheaval where many established norms and institutional frame-works have been abandoned or seriously weakened. A new baseline and sense of normalcy has yet to be established.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Economics, Politics, Insurgency, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
66. A European Strategy for Democracy, Development and Security for the Mediterranean
- Author:
- Stefano Silvestri
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The European Union urgently has to work out a new strategy towards the Mediterranean and the Middle East. It has to back the democratic transformations of Arab societies, but also assert the need for new cooperation in the field of security so that the inevitable changes do not produce new international crises and do not generate new threats. The EU can take advantage of a favourable situation which, however, may not last long. This is a crucial test for the Union's common foreign and security policy after Lisbon.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Lisbon
67. Security Sector Transformation in North Africa and the Middle East
- Author:
- Mark Sedra
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The events of the Arab Spring are a unique and unprecedented opportunity for democratic political change for the Middle East and North Africa, but the political transitions in that region remain fragile. The United States and other external actors can help the new democratic regimes by supporting their efforts at security sector reform (SSR).
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa
68. Arab Monarchies: Chance for Reform, Yet Unmet
- Author:
- Marina Ottaway and Marwan Muasher
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Contrary to what ongoing protests across the Middle East and North Africa might imply, monarchs and ruling families in the Arab world still enjoy an extraordinary degree of legitimacy in the eyes of their people. Most citizens of Arab monarchies want to see changes within their ruling governments, not complete regime change. This in turn affords those rulers an opportunity to embark on a path of far-reaching political reform without losing their thrones—all the while gaining acclaim at home and abroad.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
69. From Inspiration to Aspiration: Turkey in the New Middle East
- Author:
- Sinan Ülgen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- With democratic change struggling to take root in the Arab world even after the fall of several autocratic regimes, the question naturally arises whether Turkey can serve as a model for those who hope to usher the region through the difficult transition to a more democratic order.
- Topic:
- NATO, Democratization, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia
70. Education for Citizenship in the Arab World: Key to the Future
- Author:
- Marwan Muasher and Muhammad Faour
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Any romantic notions in the West that the 2011 Arab uprisings could create instantaneous democracy in countries that have succeeded at toppling their leaders are already shattering. In the absence of strong political parties and viable civil society structures in most of the Arab world, these uprisings are proving to be only the first step in a process that will not follow a clear path and will take years to unfold. Much trial and error will take place and the region will experience multiple ups and downs before stable political and economic systems take hold.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Economics, Education, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
71. Headscarf Ban and Discrimination
- Author:
- Dilek Cindoğlu
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
- Abstract:
- The headscarf ban applied in institutions of higher education, in the public sector, and as this research has shown, in the private sector, reveals the perspectives of the state and its institutions and as well of the society on human, women’s and citizens’ rights. The restrictions and barriers to entry of women to study and work in institutions of higher education and public sector institutions, in place since the 1960s, rest on a mentality that views women’s choices to wear headscarves as an attack on the secular regime, instead of treating their choices as a manifestation of their freedom of religion and belief. Consequently, the practices that were initially violating freedom of belief gradually deteriorated to cause further violations of rights to education, to employment, to equal access to public life and of basic rights and liberties such as the right to equality. The headscarf ban in institutions of higher education has for many years been and remains to be a widely debated and contested issue. Though there is a wealth of analysis, dialogue, debate and research on the subject, it is largely restricted to whether the headscarf ban in universities is justified or not. The impact that the ban has had on headscarved women’s lives have, on the other hand, been absent in the debates and analyses on the headscarf ban. A question that has not been featured in research and public debates so far is despite the public sector ban on the headscarf what are the experiences of those headscarved women at work who were able to graduate from university, but did not abandon their choice to wear headscarf to practice their faith and without? In other words, what is the impact of the headscarf ban in the public sector on the professional lives of higher educated headscarved women? Does this ban, which applies to public sector institutions, also hinder or restrict professional headscarved women as they apply for or work in private sector jobs? What obstacles are there for professional headscarved women to entering job markets in Turkey and to advancing their careers? This report is a product of TESEV Democratization Program’s quest to answer these questions. It examines one of the greatest roadblocks on Turkey’s path to democratization, the headscarf ban, and the implications of the ban on public and private sector employment to document the myriad forms of discrimination and rights violations that headscarved women face immediately after they decide to become working professionals. Though some forms of workplace discrimination 6 that headscarved women face also affect non-headscarved professional women with similar socio-economic backgrounds, the headscarf is the primary source of the majority of discrimination faced by professional headscarved women. Again, this report shows that the ban on the public sector spilled over to the private sector. Cases of discrimination and rights violations that are believed to have diminished and to even have been reversed in favor of headscarved women during the two terms of the AK Party administration continue to be recorded, especially and more vehemently in the private sector.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Gender Issues, Religion, Women, Inequality, and Discrimination
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
72. Iraq's Uncertain Future: Elections and Beyond
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- As a rule, Iraq's post-Saddam elections have tended to magnify pre-existing negative trends. The parliamentary polls to be held on 7 March are no exception. The focus on electoral politics is good, no doubt, but the run-up has highlighted deep-seated problems that threaten the fragile recovery: recurring election-related violence; ethnic tensions over Kirkuk; the re-emergence of sectarianism; and blatant political manipulation of state institutions. The most egregious development was the decision to disqualify over 500 candidates, a dangerous, arbitrary step lacking due process, yet endorsed by the Shiite ruling parties. Under normal circumstances, that alone might have sufficed to discredit the elections. But these are not normal circumstances, and for the sake of Iraq's stability, the elections must go on. At a minimum, however, the international community should ramp up its electoral monitoring and define clear red lines that need to be respected if the results are to be considered legitimate. And it should press the next government to seriously tackle the issue – long-neglected yet never more critical – of national reconciliation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
73. The Arab State: Assisting or Obstructing Development?
- Author:
- Paul Salem
- Publication Date:
- 07-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Good governance is key to improving peoples' lives; but the Arab world falls short on many governance indicators. Most Arab states remain highly authoritarian, although there is a growing dynamism in civil society and among opposition parties, both secular and Islamist. Problems in governance have impeded development in the Arab world and limited the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
74. Promise, Peril for Iraq's New Government: Interview with Joost Hiltermann
- Author:
- Bernard Gwertzman (interviewer)
- Publication Date:
- 12-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- After nine months of political wrangling, Iraq's parliament confirmed Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's new coalition government December 21. Though the government is "a good basis for setting out," says Iraq expert Joost Hiltermann, there's much uncertainty about how cohesive it will be and whether the inclusive government formed can govern. Hiltermann says there are questions about who will head the three major security ministries, whether a new National Council for Strategic Policy--designed as a "real check" against Maliki's power--will be approved by parliament, and whether Ayad Allawi, who headed the Iraqiya bloc that won the most seats in the election, will want to head that council. The United States pushed a power-sharing agreement "that went beyond the sharing of ministerial positions," says Hiltermann, but it remains to be seen whether various factions, including the prime minister and his allies, will allow that to happen.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Democratization, Government, Politics, Governance, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
75. Iraqi Candidate Disqualification Update
- Author:
- Marisa Cochrane Sullivan and James Danly
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Seven of the eight names of the Accountability and Justice Commission's additional candidates for disqualification, based upon the de-Baathification law, were released today by Haider al-Mullah, spokesman for the Iraqi List. These individuals join Ibrahim al-Mutlak, who was among the 52 candidates named prior to the election, but whose disqualification at the time was denied by IHEC for having been named too late in the election process.On April 26, 2010, the three-judge election panel nullified their candidacies in response to an appeal submitted by the State of Law List, led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Armed Struggle, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
76. Iraqi Elections Update
- Author:
- James Danly
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- This backgrounder is an update to the ISW publication dated January 14, 2010 and entitled "Sunni Politicians Barred from Candidacy." The political landscape in Iraq has changed dramatically. Multiple government entities and politicians have weighed-in on the issue of the candidate ban, various politicians have claimed un due foreign involvement by different governments and, as the elections draw near, Iraq's already tense politics have become even more divisive. The candidates' ban has sparked widespread claims of legal and constitutional illegitimacy, threats of election boycotts and a nationwide rise in vehement anti-Ba'athism. This political environment threatens the legitimacy of Iraq's second national elections since the fall of the Ba'athist regime in 2003. The following paper briefly details and analyzes the events that have unfolded since the publication of the original.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Armed Struggle, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
77. Stepping Back From Democratic Pessimism
- Author:
- Thomas Carothers
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Pessimism about the progress of democracy in the developing and postcommunist worlds has risen sharply in recent years. Negative developments in a variety of countries, such as military coups, failed elections, and the emergence of antidemocratic populist leaders, have caused some observers to argue that democracy is in retreat and authoritarianism on the march. A broad look at the state of democracy around the world reveals however that although the condition of democracy is certainly troubled in many places, when viewed relative to where it was at the start of this decade, democracy has not lost ground in the world overall. The former Soviet Union is the one region where democracy has clearly slipped backward in this decade, primarily as a result of Russia's authoritarian slide. The Middle East has also been a source of significant disappointment on democracy but mostly in comparison with unrealistic expectations that were raised by the Bush administration. In most of the rest of the world good news with respect to democratization is found in roughly equal proportion to bad news and considerable continuity has prevailed as well.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Cold War, Communism, Democratization, Development, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, and Middle East
78. Despite Crackdown, U.S. Must Deal with Iranian Regime
- Author:
- Richard N. Haass
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Asserting that the Iranian theocracy has become a "thugocracy," CFR President Richard N. Haass says the Iranian regime will likely prevail because of its use of force against the population. This makes the urgency of negotiating an end to the country's nuclear program more pronounced, and possibly more difficult, Haass says. "The Iranian challenge still exists, and may actually be somewhat worse," he says. "I'm talking about the nuclear program, their influence in Afghanistan and Iraq, their support of Hezbollah and Hamas. None of that has changed." Haass says the Obama administration "still ultimately has to try to deal with [Iran]" but adds: "It has become extraordinarily difficult to talk to this regime, and Iran has become in absolute and relative terms far more capable."
- Topic:
- Democratization and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East
79. Democratic Talk and the Democratic Walk: Superficial Versus Sincere Support for Illiterate Voting Rights in Lebanon
- Author:
- Daniel Corstange
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Who supports illiterate voting rights? In the diverse societies of the developing world, suffrage restrictions on illiterate people can have both class and ethnic ramifications because illiteracy correlates with poverty and often with ethnic group membership. I demonstrate how examining the overlap of ethnic population distributions helps to identify individuals for whom satisfying material interests comes at the expense of identity interests and vice-versa. The salience of ethnicity in public discourse requires people to articulate identity demands that may be inconsistent with their material interests, opening up the possibility that what they say and what they think will diverge systematically. Empirically, I use an augmented list experiment in Lebanon to distinguish between superficial and sincere support for illiterate voting rights. I show that a direct question yields a sectarian answer in which Shiites are more supportive of those rights than are Sunnis or Christians, whereas an unobtrusive question produces an answer about material deprivation in which poor people are more supportive of illiterate voting than rich people.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and Social Stratification
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Lebanon
80. Justice Interrupted: Historical Perspectives on Promoting Democracy in the Middle East
- Author:
- Elizabeth F. Thompson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Foreign affairs experts routinely use historical analogy to develop and justify policy. However, as professional historians have long noted, attractive analogies often lead to bad policies. Officials regularly choose analogies that neglect or distort the historical case they aim to illuminate. Nonetheless, history can be used effectively in international relations. To do so, practitioners must first recognize the difference between historical analogy and precedent. Historical precedent, drawn from the past of the region in question, is a safer guide to policy than historical analogy, which is based on comparisons to events in other regions. Because historical precedent is a self-limiting form of analogy restricted to a certain place, people, and time, it provides a better indication of how a certain society understands and responds to a given situation. The recent U.S. intervention in Iraq highlights the misuses of history: American leaders employed analogies to World War II to justify the invasion and to predict success in establishing a democratic regime after. These analogies proved to be a poor guide to nation building in the short term. In the long term, they have deeply aggravated U.S. relations with Iraqis and the rest of the Arab world. A more effective use of history would have been to refer to the precedent of World War I, a crucial moment when American policy could have supported indigenous Arab constitutional democracy—but, fatefully, did not. For the new administration, the Arabs' experience of “justice interrupted” after World War I can still be a useful touchstone for promoting democracy in the region. This precedent alerts us that foreign intervention can spark a deep-seated and negative political reaction in the postcolonial Arab world and that reform in Arab politics must begin with respect for national sovereignty. It also reminds us that constitutionalism and the desire to participate in the community of international law are enduring values in Arab politics.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia