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142. Radical Departure: Toward A Practical Peace in Iraq
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 07-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The key to enabling total US troop withdrawal from Iraq within 400 days is achieving a political accord with Sunni leaders at all levels and with Iraq's neighbors - especially Syria and Iran. The proximal aim would be to immediately lower the level of conflict inside Iraq by constricting both active and passive support for the insurgency, inside and outside the country. This would allow the United States to shift resources to the training mission and to adopt other de-escalatory measures - most importantly: a withdrawal time line. The strategic price of this diplomatic initiative would be a return to self-governance in Sunni areas, a guaranteed level of representation for these areas in the national assembly, an end to broad-brush measures of de-Baathification, an amnesty for most indigenous insurgents and for most former Baathists, and a de-escalation of the US confrontation with Syria and Iran regarding a range of issues. In conjunction with these diplomatic initiatives, the United States would announce a tentative time line for withdrawal of its troops from Iraq -- associated with training milestones. Also: US forces would end major offensive sweeps inside the country, adopt a defensive posture, and shift the emphasis of their activity to training Iraqi security forces. Finally: the Iraqi government would re-activate portions of the old army -- partly as a confidence-building measure, but also in order to (i) rob insurgent organizations of their recruiting base, (ii) augment the power of the new Iraqi security forces, and (iii) produce a better ethnic balance in the new forces (which are currently dominated by Kurds and Shiites). As new forces increase in capacity, US forces would be removed, further reducing a stimulus of insurgent action. Four hundred days - 57 weeks - is sufficient time to complete several Iraqi training cycles, including field exercises for many units at the battalion and brigade levels. Some division level training also can occur. Given sufficient resources (24,000 training personnel), 100,000 Iraqi security personnel can receive remedial training and another 80,000 new personnel can be trained and exercised during this period. Together with the full provision of all appropriate equipment, this development effort can yield Iraqi security forces that are several times more capable than those it controls in mid-2005. After thirteen months, the only foreign military assets remaining in Iraq would be a small monitoring and training mission with a security detail: less than 10,000 foreign civilian and military personnel in all. US troops should constitute no more than one-third of the military component -- that is, approximately 2,000 troops. This mission should be conducted under a three-year UN mandate and joint NATO-international command. In addition, the United States might maintain a 25,000-person rapid reaction task force in the region, but outside either Iraq or Saudi Arabia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, Politics, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
143. A Possible Path to Change in US-Iran Relations
- Author:
- Mark Edmond Clark
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Columbia International Affairs Online
- Abstract:
- In 1999, I visited Belgrade one month before the start of Operation ALLIED FORCE as a guest of the Yugoslav Ministry of Foreign Affairs to hear the perspectives of key officials on the possibility of a conflict between Yugoslavia and NATO. I heard a singular perspective that NATO would not use force and threats to do so were used only to get the regime of Slobodan Milosevic to respond to diplomatic efforts by the US and EU. There was simply a refusal to recognize that the threat of attack from NATO was real.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, and Yugoslavia
144. Iraq: One Year After
- Author:
- Thomas R. Pickering, James R. Schlesinger, and Eric P. Schwartz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- On March 20, 2003, the United States launched Operation Iraqi Freedom, designed to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein. By mid-April, major fighting was essentially over, and on May 1, the United States declared an end to major combat operations.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
145. How Can the Transatlantic Community Help Build Peace, Prosperity, and Security in the Greater Middle East?
- Author:
- William J. Burns
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Transatlantic Relations
- Abstract:
- Good morning. I deeply appreciate the opportunity to join you today to honor the legacy of one of the truly great statesmen in American -- and transatlantic -- history, General George C. Marshall. The legacy of General Marshall has touched my own life in several ways over the years. While I am sure he will not remember this, the last time General Meyer and I shared a stage together was thirty years ago, when he presented me an award at my high school in Carlisle, Pennsylvania, and spoke to all of us impressionable seventeen year olds about the selfless example of public service offered by George Marshall. Several years later, I studied as a Marshall Scholar at Oxford University, the direct beneficiary of a program established by the British Government in gratitude for General Marshall's contributions. While the Marshall Scholarship Fund has survived the minor infamy of its award to me, it had a profound effect on my life, and I'm pleased to be here today in part to honor that gift. I have also had the profound good fortune, both personally and professionally, to work for a number of years for Secretary Powell, whose own remarkable career you will honor this evening as a continuation of the legacy of George Marshall.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
146. The European Union and the crisis in the Middle East
- Author:
- Martin Ortega
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- In summer 2000 the negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians hosted by President Clinton at Camp David raised the prospect of a peaceful resolution of the most sensitive aspects of their controversy, after almost nine years of difficult but promising exchanges following on from the Madrid Conference of November 1991. Nevertheless, Yasser Arafat's refusal to accept the terms negotiated at Camp David and the outbreak of a second intifada on 28 September 2000 led to a spiral of violence that dashed hopes for peace, leading instead to low-intensity war. Nor did the election of Ariel Sharon as Prime Minister in February 2001 make a return to the negotiating table any easier. The two parties considered that they would have more to gain from acts of violence than from negotiations and agreements. Therefore, violence in the Middle East was the continuation of diplomacy by other means. The external actors did not want, or were unable, to break this vicious circle. The most bitter regional conflict since the Second World War was thus rekindled following a phase of pacification that had appeared to be permanent. The European Union and its member states, but also the European public, viewed this negative development with great concern, because the breakdown of the peace process symbolised the end of a decade of optimism that the international community could promote peace not only in the Middle East but also in many other regions, such as southern Africa, Central America, the Balkans or South-East Asia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, South Africa, Balkans, Central America, and Southeast Asia
147. Myth and Narrative in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
- Author:
- Deborah West
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The function of narratives was discussed at great length. It was suggested that in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, each side's narrative is rooted in fear and insecurity, albeit for different reasons. Each side fears destruction, and, in another sense, each side fears peace. If peace comes, each side will have to reorganize it- self. This process is difficult because it is psychologically easier to organize against a clearly defined opposing force than without one. In order to move be- yond the traditional opposition, each side must recognize and legitimize the other side's fears as well as its own.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
148. Demand, Stockpiles, and Social Controls: Small Arms in Yemen
- Author:
- Derek B. Miller
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- This paper draws strong conclusions about the dynamics of stockpiles and holdings, demand factors for small arms, and the significance of social controls on individual and community behaviour in Yemen.Using a new method, devised uniquely for this study, to estimate small arms availability at the local level, it is believed that Yemen has between 6-9 million small arms, most of which are from the former Eastern Bloc countries or China, with fewer numbers of various makes and models from other countries, some dating back to the early nineteenth century. This dramatically reduces the popular estimate of Yemen having 50 million small arms. However, this revised estimate includes only an educated guess as to the actual number of weapons in state stockpiles, as well as those in the hands of tribal sheikhs. Though severely reduced, this new figure does not undermine Yemen's status as one of the world's most heavily armed societies, but certainly not the most armed, when one considers both per capita weaponry and their high level of lethality.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
149. Iraq: The Day After
- Author:
- Thomas R. Pickering and James R. Schlesinger
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- If the United States goes to war and removes the regime of Saddam Hussein, American interests will demand an extraordinary commitment of U.S. financial and personnel resources to postconflict transitional assistance and reconstruction. These interests include eliminating Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMD); ending Iraqi contacts, whether limited or extensive, with international terrorist organizations; ensuring that a post-transition Iraqi government can maintain the country's territorial integrity and independence while contributing to regional stability; and offering the people of Iraq a future in which they have a meaningful voice in the vital decisions that impact their lives.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, America, and Middle East
150. Palestinian Refugees: How can a durable solution be achieved?
- Author:
- Tanya Salem
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The refugee question is at the core of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. Palestinians were first displaced as a direct consequence of the 1948 war and its aftermath. Twenty years later, another wave of Palestinian refugees was created as a consequence of the war during which Israel occupied the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia