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2. Deciphering Erdoğan's Regional Paradigm Shifts
- Author:
- Ofra Bengio
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Professor Ofra Bengio analyses the trajectory of Turkish foreign and domestic policies by examining three paradigms in Erdogan's strategy since the early 2000s. In addition, we offer our sincere condolences to the victims of the earthquake last week.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Weapons, Arab Spring, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, and Middle East
3. The Syrian Civil War Twelve Years On: Can There Be a Constructive Role for Greece?
- Author:
- Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Loukas I. Papavasileiou
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Continual and ever-growing foreign involvement led to the internationalization of the armed conflict and turned Syria into a battleground for the strategic competition of several powers. The Kremlin has long viewed Hafez and Bashar al-Assad as indispensable partners in the Middle East and has repeatedly offered its diplomatic and military support in an attempt to achieve its own strategic objectives. Given the destabilizing effects the unending Syrian crisis has had on Middle Eastern and Eastern Mediterranean security, Greece maintains a profound interest in the resolution of the conflict. Greece appointed a Special Envoy for Syria in May 2020 with a view to reinvigorating its policy vis-à-vis the Syrian crisis. Greece’s successful re-engagement with key Arab countries and improved relations with other regional actors could pave the way for a more prominent Greek role in Syria. This could entail reinforcing its diplomatic cooperation with the EU Delegation to Syria, leading the EU humanitarian relief effort following the devastating earthquakes that hit Syria on 6 February 2023, and formulating a realistic and forward-looking strategy for the future of the Syrian people, including provisions for the voluntary repatriation of refugees and the protection of minority rights.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Refugees, Political stability, Syrian War, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Greece, and Syria
4. A New New Turkey? What an Opposition Victory Would Mean for Ankara’s Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Nicholas Danforth
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- The opposition foreign policy platform seeks to improve relations with the West while simultaneously continuing to pursue a more independent foreign policy. Securing the safe, voluntary and legal return of Syrian refugees through rapprochement with the Assad regime, as the opposition proposes, will prove a non-starter. Ultimately, a democratic Turkey that calibrates its foreign policy to the interests of its citizens rather than the interests of one man will be a stronger and more reliable actor on the global stage.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
5. Russia at War and the Islamic World
- Author:
- Marlène Laruelle
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- While Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine has resulted in a decoupling with the West on a scale not seen since the worst years of the Cold War, Russia has not been isolated from the non-Western world and has even reinvested its diplomatic energy toward the Global South. This paper focuses on Russia’s relationships with the Islamic world and how they have been transformed — or not — by the Ukraine war. It discusses both Russia’s “internal” Islamic realm and how the Middle East has reacted to the strategic tectonic shift unleashed by the war and Western sanctions. It explains that the role and place of Islam in Russia have been reinforced by the war context, as Islamic institutions and Muslims are seen by the Russian regime as among the most loyal constituencies. It concludes that the main Middle Eastern regional powers have been able to consolidate their transactional foreign policies and use the war to assert their autonomy toward Western actors so that Russia’s weakening does not result in the West’s increased influence but in a more multipolar order.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Islam, Multipolarity, Regional Power, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Middle East
6. China’s Response to Türkiye’s Volatile Authoritarianism
- Author:
- Ceren Ergenç and Kenan Göçer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates Türkiye’s evolving relations with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a large-scale program of infrastructure investment and project financing proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013. The paper digs deeply into cases from two sectors—transportation and energy—focusing on how heightened and changing local expectations among Turks for these prospective BRI projects have shaped choices and outcomes, including China’s. In so doing, it explores how these shifting Turkish perceptions affect the implementation of BRI projects in Türkiye. This paper has several goals: it seeks to understand the reasons behind these local changes, the role of the state and private sector in Türkiye in these changes, and the way China has responded so far. Of course, domestic factors are not the only ones that shape the implementation of BRI projects in Türkiye or elsewhere; regional and global trends have had an impact too.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Infrastructure, Authoritarianism, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Investment
- Political Geography:
- China, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia
7. China’s Grand Vision and the Persian Gulf
- Author:
- Anoushiravan Ehteshami
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- China’s engagement with Asian regions beyond its geographical periphery has grown exponentially since the 1990s and this is nowhere more evident than in West Asia and the Persian Gulf subregion. While energy drove China’s early interactions with the Gulf states, within two decades after the Cold War the relationships had evolved into much tighter networks of partnerships. China’s relations with the Gulf states, however, has not been uniform and the case studies of the United Arab Emirates and Iran highlight the complexities of China’s strategy in this subregion and the ways in which it actively pursues its diverse set of interests.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Partnerships, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- China, Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations
8. The Kurdish Question Dominates Turkish Policy in the Wake of the Istanbul Bombing
- Author:
- Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- On 13 November, a bomb exploded in Istanbul. In retaliation, Türkiye carried out air strikes against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliates in Iraq and Syria. The public’s sense of a renewed internal threat resulted in a drop in support for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Possible Turkish ground operations in northern Syria may complicate the continuing fight against ISIS.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Islamic State, Domestic Politics, Kurds, and Bombing
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
9. Türkiye Struggling with Economic Problems and Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The ongoing crisis in the Turkish economy poses a risk of destabilisation in the EU’s southern neighbourhood. The intensification of the pauperisation of the society and brain drain may have an impact on the results of next year’s elections. The long-lasting economic difficulties are also prompting Türkiye to normalise relations with Arab states and Israel.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, European Union, Economy, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
10. Turkish Opposition Focuses on Foreign Policy Corrections
- Author:
- Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- According to polls, the Turkish opposition candidate has a chance to defeat Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in next year’s presidential elections. Although the opposition parties’ vision of foreign policy is not consistent, as evidenced by public divergences in, for example, the approach to the EU or the war in Ukraine, they remain consistent with the need to improve Türkiye’s relations with the West.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
11. China’s Infrastructure Projects in the Middle East: Lessons from China’s Engagement Elsewhere
- Author:
- Dominika Urhová
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Iqtisadi, Ms. Dominika Urhova discusses the economic strategy and role of China in the Middle East, and analyzes the implications of China's growing influence in the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Strategic Engagement
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, and Asia
12. Political Change and Turkey’s Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Alper Coşkun and Sinan Ülgen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Turkey is heading toward a set of twin elections that could have momentous consequences for the country’s future. In June 2023 at the latest, Turkish voters will be asked to choose a new president and a new parliamentary majority. For the past two decades, the Turkish political landscape has been dominated by the Justice and Development (AK) Party and its uniquely successful leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. After having ruled the country single-handedly since 2002, Erdoğan became the first executive president of Turkey in 2018, following a tightly contested constitutional change. He has come out victorious in every round of elections since the start of his political career. And yet, after two decades, his popularity is faltering, raising the prospect of political change. The turning point for Turkey’s political system has been the transition to a presidential system with the constitutional amendment of 2017.1 Since the start of multiparty elections in 1946, Turkey had had a parliamentary system, and since 2002 it has had single-party governments. With Erdoğan at the helm, the AK Party has won nearly all elections over the past two decades. It only failed to win a parliamentary majority in the most recent elections,2 in June 2018, and since then has been forced to rely on the support of the hyper-nationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) to secure control of the legislature.3 Alper Coşkun Alper Coşkun is a senior fellow in the Europe Program and leads the Türkiye and the World Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC. @IACOSKUN The transition to the presidential system forced a realignment of the political constellation. The structural impact of this transition has led to the creation of two major political alliances. The Cumhur, or People’s, Alliance is led by the AK Party and includes the MHP and a small number of marginal parties. The Millet, or Nation, Alliance is led by the main opposition, the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP); it also includes the center-right/nationalist İYİ Party as well as the Saadet and Demokrat parties, which appeal to a smaller electoral base. The first real test of this alliance-based politics was the municipal elections of March 2019, where the opposition alliance performed markedly better. Millet-backed opposition candidates won the electoral race in nine out of Turkey’s ten major metropolitan cities, including Ankara and Istanbul. These cities had been ruled by mayors linked to the AK Party and its predecessors since 1994. Now the alliances are gearing up to contest the critical 2023 elections. The ruling Cumhur Alliance’s candidate will be Erdoğan, who will try to win a third term as Turkey’s president. The candidate of the Millet Alliance is still unknown. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, as the leader of the main opposition party, is intent on becoming the Millet candidate, but there are doubts about his electability against Erdoğan. Meral Akşener, the chairwoman of İYİ—the second-largest opposition party—has so far sidelined herself from the presidential race. Ekrem Imamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul, and Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of Ankara, are also possible presidential candidates for the opposition. At present, all four potential candidates for the opposition are polling better than Erdoğan—fueling speculation about political change.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Public Opinion, Elections, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
13. Adapting to New Realities: Israel’s foreign policy in post-Netanyahu times
- Author:
- Gabriel Haritos
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Israel had to adapt to the revised objectives of the Biden administration in the Middle East and to update its coordination with Russia on the Syria front. The war in Ukraine has reconfigured Israel’s relations with the US and Russia. Israel’s reluctance to provide arms to Ukraine has allowed Russian-Israeli coordination to continue in Syria. The energy crisis triggered by the Russo-Ukrainian war led the US to revise its stance towards Saudi Arabia. The US-Iran talks ground to a halt in Vienna in the light of the growing ties between Iran and Russia. Israel took advantage of the new state of affairs, encouraging the rapprochement between Washington and Riyadh and countering the possibility of the US reopening its consulate in East Jerusalem. In coordination with the US, Israel has promoted the deepening of the Abraham Accords and drawn India into the new Middle East reality through the new I2U2 mechanism. Thanks to carefully managed communication, the Bennett-Lapid government was able to restore diplomatic relations with Turkey while maintaining close cooperation with Greece and Cyprus. It would seem advisable to put in place additional safeguards to maintain the quality of Athens-Nicosia -Jerusalem relations, similar to those which are expected to accompany the revamped relations between Israel and Turkey.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, Greece, and United States of America
14. What is new about the reset between Israel and Turkey?
- Author:
- Selin Nasi
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Entering 2021, revising its foreign policy became an ever more pressing necessity for Ankara, in the light of both international and domestic developments. The Turkish government only took steps towards mending its broken ties with countries in the region, including Israel, when the economic cost of its assertive policies began to threaten Erdoğan’s rule. Israeli PM Netanyahu’s defeat in the 2021 elections provided an opportunity for Ankara to step up its diplomatic overtures toward Israel. Bilateral relations may follow a different course than they did in the 2000s, primarily because the basic parameters of the relationship between Israel and Turkey have changed since Israel made new friends in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. The erosion of institutions and the subsequent personalization of Turkish foreign policy render bilateral relations prone to crisis. For Israelis, this is a manageable risk, at least for now, given the benefits Ankara can expect from normalizing relations with Israel. Against the backdrop of an intensifying power competition between the US and China, Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, and the current security landscape in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean, opportunities for cooperation between Israel and Turkey remain dependent on the resolution of long-standing issues.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Israel
15. Turkey in Afghanistan: more than one reason to stay
- Author:
- Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Despite a long history of bilateral contacts, Turkey’s most intensive commitment in Afghanistan only started in 2001 with the NATO mission. A first friendship treaty was signed back in 1921; the first official foreign visit to the Republic of Turkey was made in 1928 by King Amanullah of Afghanistan. Turkey’s engagement in South Asia started with Afghanistan but has recently been Pakistan-centred. As the only majority-Muslim NATO country, Turkey was viewed more positively by the Afghan population and the Taliban than other NATO member states. Ankara has been reaching out to the Taliban since summer 2021. However, the Taliban have not met Turkish demands for a more inclusive government, or in relation to girls’ education. Turkey has become a haven for non-Taliban (opposition) Afghans, who are told not to voice their criticism of the Taliban. There are four main motivations for Turkey’s engagement in Afghanistan: 1) improving relations with the US; 2) stabilizing Afghanistan to prevent migrant flows; 3) getting a foothold in the geopolitics of the region; 4) benefitting from the economic potential. Kabul international airport is important both for the Taliban and for Turkey. For the Taliban, it is their window to the world; for Turkey, it is an opportunity to profit economically and to boost its international status. In Afghanistan, Turkey’s soft power approach includes TIKA (Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency), the Maarif schools, and the Yunus Emre Institute. These institutions have remained operational. In 2020, Afghanistan received the third largest amount of Turkish developmental aid, amounting to 36.5 million USD. Even if the world, and Turkey, are currently focused on Ukraine, Afghanistan will continue to occupy an important place in Turkey’s regional foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Taliban, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Turkey, and Middle East
16. Turkey’s quest for Strategic Autonomy
- Author:
- Alexandros Diakopoulos
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Ankara is pursuing a radical revision of the regional status quo by projecting power in neighboring regions with increasing aggression and disregard for international legality. Turkey moved from a security-based to a power-based foreign policy and took advantage of the power vacuum in Eastern Mediterranean to make a bid for regional hegemony by resorting to the use of hard power. The Turkish army developed autonomous expeditionary capabilities, bolstered by a strengthened national defense industry. The lessons learned in Syria clearly informed the series of Turkish foreign policy moves that followed. A revisionist Turkey involved itself in all regional theaters of conflict, fomenting instability in the region while also reaping strategic and economic benefits. These interventions shaped Turkish-Russian competitive cooperation and strategic realignment. Since 2016 the relationship has evolved into something almost symbiotic, with the two countries coordinating their presence on multiple fronts. The two countries are drawn to one another by their shared authoritarian models of governance and similar strategic cultures and operational codes: Both countries are revisionist, aggressive and assertive on their peripheries. Both countries claim to be surrounded, which serves as a pretext for their unilateral actions. Both countries have militarized their foreign policy by conducting hybrid warfare, using surrogate forces and coercing countries that resist.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, Strategic Autonomy, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, and Middle East
17. Turkey’s “anti-colonial” pivot to Mali: French-Turkish competition and the role of the European Union in the Sahel
- Author:
- Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Dawid A. Fusiek
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Turkey’s rising foreign policy ambitions have been best reflected in its pivot to Africa. One of the tropes used by the Erdoğan administration to advance its cause are references to the colonial heritage of the European Union (EU) and its member states. The AKP and its officials have employed this discourse to challenge the French influence in Mali since the 2020 coup d’état. As this paper shows, Turkey uses anti-colonial discourse to exploit postcolonial sentiments with a view to challenging the political and economic power of Western actors, to portraying Turkey as a legitimate and “anti-colonial” ally and partner and, in the long run, to establishing a robust Turkish presence in Mali, the Sahel and beyond. In order to counter Turkish influence, the EU needs to promote fair cooperation with Mali and West Africa, to assist with political and economic development in the region, and to mobilise Member States which are unencumbered with a colonial past.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, Anti-Colonialism, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, France, Mali, and Sahel
18. Regime Change No More: Coming to Terms with the Greater Middle East
- Author:
- Henrik Larsen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- Reflecting on the ‘farcical retreat from Afghanistan’ back in August 2021, Henrik Larsen discusses the need for a reckoning within US foreign policy and that of its NATO Allies. To focus on the other challenges to transatlantic security with a sense of integrity, these states must come to grips with their failed regime change agenda over the past 20 years. Afghanistan was the first of their interventions in the Greater Middle East since 2001, alongside Iraq, Libya, and Syria, that obscured the pursuit of realistic objectives and prioritised (liberal) ideals that proved to be detached from the local realities. In the wake of NATO’s new Strategic Concept for 2030 and beyond, this Strategic Update seeks to analyse the options for policy in the Middle East going forward.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Middle East, and United States of America
19. Saudi Arabia’s Engagement in the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process
- Author:
- Ksenia Svetlova
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- During the last few decades Saudi Arabia had exercised a role of a regional coordinator between various Middle Eastern states and between them and the USA. Twice in the past it had put on the table a peace initiative that was aimed at finding an acceptable solution for Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and both times these initiatives didn’t take off for various reasons. The reality of the Arab spring and Iran domination, as well as the rise of the crown-prince Muhammad Bin-Salman and Abraham accords had radically altered the regional dynamic, and during the last few years Saudi Arabia moved closer to Israel, especially since it became more preoccupied with Iranian threat and domestic reforms. How can Saudi Arabia facilitate peace or contribute for peace-making between Israel and Palestinians, openly or behind the scenes, and what needs to happen first to allow this scenario?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Peace, and Abraham Accords
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia
20. Palestinian Expectations from The Biden Administration
- Author:
- Rawan AbuJulia
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- The United States’ (US) foreign policy trend of intervention in the Middle East has long been accepted as a truism in international relations and politics. For decades, the US has demonstrated a steadfast commitment to peace in the Middle East and has made commendable efforts to mediate the Israel-Palestine conflict. While Washington-Palestinian relations experienced tension during Trump presidency, the victory of Biden left the Palestinians upbeat. Today, one year into Biden’s tenure, the Palestinians continue to hold mixed expectations of the Biden administration’s ability to advance the peace process. This paper attempts, in particular, to analyze the Palestinians’ expectations of the of the Biden Administration, as articulated by high officials and leaders of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO): a legitimate authority representing the Palestinian people recognized by Israel in 1993.[1] An approach that aims to understand Palestinian expectations can yield major benefits: it can contribute to making progress toward better conflict resolution, help advance the peace process, and likely revive the two-state solution. In fact, ignoring Palestinian expectations might lead to misunderstanding, miscommunication and could perhaps interrupt or even thwart the peace process entirely. To identify these expectations, this paper relies on Palestinian and international news sources, along with open governmental data published by the US government and the Palestinian Authority. This paper is divided into four sections. The first section presents the efforts that different US administrations made to advance the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. The second section summarizes President Trump’s policy towards the Palestinians, highlighting actions that provoked strong condemnation by the Palestinians. The third section presents President Biden’s policy toward the Palestinians in the first year of his administration, emphasizing the main differences between Biden and Trump’s decisions. The fourth and final part presents the overarching Palestinian expectations from the Biden administration.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Media, News Analysis, Peace, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America
21. The Security Ghost of the January 25th Revolution in al-Sisi Regime’s Policy toward Gaza
- Author:
- Shaimaa Magued
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- This study argues that al-Sisi regime has been haunted by the January 25 uprisings as a potential recurrent threat to the state survival during the formulation of national and foreign politics. In the aim of boosting its international legitimacy before Western allies, especially the US, the regime has capitalized on political instabilities in Gaza as a means to ensure its security grip on power without incurring foreign allies’ critics for human rights violations. How did al-Sisi regime mobilize Gaza as a means for bolstering its international credibility before Western bailers and shunning off the January 25 security ghost? In answering this question, this study refers to haunted politics in foreign policy-making as an informative perspective about the impact of traumatic events on ruling regimes’ interpretation of incidents, convocation of memories, recreation of meanings, and subjugation of citizens. Unlike Mubarak’s limited support for the Palestinian cause and Morsi’s exclusive ties with Hamas, al-Sisi adopted a balanced approach toward Gaza in the aim of counterbalancing the US reservations over the regime’s human rights violations since 2013.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Revolution, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt
22. President Biden's Visit to the Middle East: Recommendations for Israel
- Author:
- Tamir Hayman and Eldad Shavit
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- President Biden’s forthcoming trip to Israel, intended to emphasize the US commitment to Israel’s security, brings with it a golden opportunity for Jerusalem on issues such as Iran, the campaign between wars, and Saudi Arabia – also on the Biden itinerary, where the President will attempt to achieve immediate economic gains
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
23. Macron Put Down, France in Crisis: Implications for Israel
- Author:
- Remi Daniel
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- As a result of the recent elections in France, President Macron no longer enjoys a majority in parliament, and it remains unclear how he will be able to continue to lead his country. This unusual situation points to a severe political crisis that will require the various actors to adopt or devise new political methods. Beyond the internal significance for France, what are the implications for Israel?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, Leadership, and Foreign Interference
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, and France
24. US Relations with Arab Gulf States: A Passing Crisis?
- Author:
- Yoel Guzansky and Eldad Shavit
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- After US–Saudi relations deteriorated when Biden entered the White House, relations between the two countries have recently improved, with reports of a possible visit by the US president to Riyadh. What are the reasons for the rapprochement trend, and how can it affect Israel?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
25. The Russian Bear and the Molotov Cocktail: The Palestinians and the Crisis in Ukraine
- Author:
- Noa Shusterman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, the Palestinians – unlike most of the world – have remained silent and not demonstrated any solidarity with the Ukrainian people. What lies behind this posture, and how might the focus on the war in Eastern Europe influence the Palestinian issue?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Conflict, Palestinian Authority, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Palestine
26. The War in Ukraine and Strategic Hedging by Arab Countries
- Author:
- Yoel Guzansky
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The war in Ukraine has accelerated the strategic hedging by Arab states, even at the risk of (temporarily?) harming their relations with the United States. Does this policy overreach its mark, and will the United States ultimately want to settle the score with these states? How does this foreign policy redesign the Arab sphere?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
27. Türkiye and Israel: Optimism must prevail
- Author:
- Hasan Murat Mercan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- This issue of Turkeyscope focuses on Israeli-Turkish relations. The Turkish ambassador to the United States, HE Dr. Hasan Murat Mercan, highlights the strong historical relationship between the Jewish and Turkish nations and discusses the prospects for further normalization between Turkey and Israel.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, History, Bilateral Relations, and Jewish community
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Israel
28. Turkey's ‘Precious Loneliness’ vs. Greece's Multilateralism
- Author:
- Hay Eytan Cohen Yanaraocak
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak discusses the latest tension in the Eastern Mediterranean between Turkey and Greece. By analyzing the foreign policy strategies of both countries the essay reveals Turkey's shrinking leverage on the West and its ramifications for the Turkish national security.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, Bilateral Relations, and Multilateralism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Greece
29. Blocking the Gateways to Nuclear Disorder in the Middle East
- Author:
- John Spacapan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
- Abstract:
- This study will explain how the United States and like-minded states can still stop, or at least significantly slow down, the bomb’s spread in the Middle East. The historical record as well as the current intentions of potential proliferators in the region suggests this is possible, but Washington will need to start planning now. The three case countries of this monograph – Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia – are all taking aggressive steps toward nuclearization.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
30. What is the agenda for the Eastern Mediterranean?
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- A more coherent common foreign policy agenda is needed to enhance the strategic significance of the Athens-Jerusalem-Nicosia partnership.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean
31. When American progressives lose direction, an Israeli compass is needed
- Author:
- Gabi Siboni and Kobi Michael
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The proposal to return the Palestinians to the center of the stage undermines stability in the Middle East, which serves American interests.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Democracy, Progressivism, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
32. Iranian Public Opinion at the Start of the Biden Administration: Report
- Author:
- Nancy Gallagher, Clay Ramsay, and Ebrahim Mohseni
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- This report covers findings from two surveys fielded in September and early October 2020 and late January through early February 2021 to assess how Iranians were faring as the covid-19 pandemic intensified the challenges their country was already facing, what they thought about the parliamentary election in Iran and the presidential election in the United States, and how the inauguration of Joe Biden impacted their attitudes towards nuclear diplomacy and regional security. Iran was one of the earliest countries to be hard-hit by the novel coronavirus, with the country’s first cases confirmed on February 13, 2020, two days before the parliamentary election, senior officials among those soon infected, and high death rates reported. Western reporting depicted widespread government incompetence and cover-ups exacerbating the pandemic’s toll. As in other countries, Iranian officials struggled to decide whether to close schools, curtail economic activities, and restrict religious observances in hopes of slowing the virus’ spread, but cases and deaths remained high through 2020. When we fielded the first survey wave, the daily number of new confirmed covid-19 cases in Iran was starting to climb sharply again after having been relatively flat since May. Some world leaders, including the U.N. Secretary General, called for an easing of sanctions on Iran as part of global efforts to fight the pandemic. The United States, which had withdrawn from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018, maintained that medicine, personal protective equipment, and other humanitarian supplies were exempt from the steadily increasing sanctions applied as part of its “maximum pressure” campaign. But, the United States’ designation in September 2019 of the Central Bank of Iran as a terrorist organization made most foreign suppliers of humanitarian goods reluctant to sell to Iran. A decision in October 2020 to also designate the few Iranian banks that were not previously subject to secondary sanctions further impeded humanitarian trade, caused another sharp drop in the value of Iran’s currency, and had other negative economic effects. The Trump administration’s stated objective was to keep imposing more sanctions until Iran acquiesced to a long list of U.S. demands articulated by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The original twelve points include the types of restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program that the government rejected during previous negotiations and that the Iranian public has consistently opposed. It also included stopping development of nuclear-capable missiles and ending support for various groups throughout the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Public Opinion, and International Community
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
33. From Tectonic Shifts to Winds of Change in North Africa and the Middle East: Europe’s Role
- Author:
- Nathalie Tocci, Riccardo Alcaro, Francesca Caruso, Silvia Colombo, Dario Cristiani, Andrea Dessì, Flavio Fusco, and Daniela Huber
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Winds of change are blowing in North Africa and the Middle East. They originate from Washington, where the new Biden administration is expected to abandon its predecessor’s zero-sum, erratic approach and take steps towards supporting regional balances and cooperation. Effects are visible especially in the Gulf, with the US pondering its options to re-activate nuclear diplomacy with Iran and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates grudgingly agreeing to put their feud with Qatar on ice. One way or another, these winds of change are working their way through the Levant, the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya. Admittedly, they are still feeble and can easily fade out like a morning breeze. Were that to happen, Europeans would be amongst the most affected – aside, of course, from regional populations themselves. It is now high time for the EU and its member states to leave the backseat they have (un)comfortably been sitting in for years, seize the opportunity of a cooperative US administration and work to play a more proactive role in North Africa and the Middle East commensurate with their considerable financial, diplomatic and military resources.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, North Africa, United States of America, Mediterranean, and Gulf Nations
34. Strategic Incoherence Continued: US Policy Towards Syria Under Biden
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- US determination to draw down in the Middle East, which characterized the Obama, Trump and now Biden administrations, appears likely to prevent the development of any coherent strategy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Leadership, Strategic Interests, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, and United States of America
35. From Tectonic Shifts to Winds of Change in North Africa and the Middle East: Europe’s Role
- Author:
- Nathalie Tocci, Riccardo Alcaro, Francesca Caruso, Silvia Colombo, Dario Cristiani, Andrea Dessì, Flavio Fusco, and Daniela Huber
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Winds of change are blowing in North Africa and the Middle East. They originate from Washington, where the new Biden administration is expected to abandon its predecessor’s zerosum, erratic approach and take steps towards supporting regional balances and cooperation. Effects are visible especially in the Gulf, with the US pondering its options to re-activate nuclear diplomacy with Iran and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates grudgingly agreeing to put their feud with Qatar on ice. One way or another, these winds of change are working their way through the Levant, the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya. Admittedly, they are still feeble and can easily fade out like a morning breeze. Were that to happen, Europeans would be amongst the most affected – aside, of course, from regional populations themselves. It is now high time for the EU and its member states to leave the backseat they have (un)comfortably been sitting in for years, seize the opportunity of a cooperative US administration and work to play a more proactive role in North Africa and the Middle East commensurate with their considerable financial, diplomatic and military resources.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Military Affairs, and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, North Africa, and United States of America
36. Countering Zero-Sum Relations in the Middle East: Insights from the Expert Survey
- Author:
- Flavio Fusco
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Building on emerging debates on the need to develop de-escalation mechanisms for the Middle East, the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) and the Brussels-based Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS), with support from the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, launched a one-year research and outreach project entitled “Fostering a New Security Architecture in the Middle East”. Connected to the research, an expert survey targeting European, US, Russian, Middle Eastern and Chinese experts and practitioners was conducted on key themes, principles and approaches associated with a potential new security architecture for the region. The results of the survey – first published in an edited book volume jointly published by IAI and FEPS in November 2020 – are analysed below, complete with tables and infographics on key themes associated with the research project and the search for new, inclusive mechanisms for dialogue and de-escalation in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Foreign Policy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Middle East, and United States of America
37. Ten Years of the Syrian Conflict: Time for the EU to Reconsider Its Strategy?
- Author:
- Amer Al-Hussein
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The Syrian conflict entered its eleventh year on 15 March 2021, bringing this “living nightmare” back to our minds.[1] This ominous anniversary should remind the world of the importance of addressing the bleak reality inside Syria. While the new US administration provides a glimmer of hope for a return to diplomacy, multilateralism and an end to the mercantilism of the past years, Europe would be wrong to simply wait for the US lead on Syria.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Sanctions, European Union, Institutions, and Coronavirus
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, United States of America, and Mediterranean
38. The Biden Foreign Policy Team
- Author:
- Bob Silverman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- A guide to the Biden Administration’s first moves and initial set of senior officials. It is no wonder that popular disenchantment with US elites sometimes bubbles to the surface in unexpected ways.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Governance, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North America, and United States of America
39. Turkey and Iran: Parallel Islam imperialist ambitions for the Middle East
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Neither Ankara nor Tehran want a strong Iraq, or a strong Syria. On the contrary, the fragmentation of these countries suits both.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Imperialism, Regional Cooperation, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
40. Biden’s Eastern Mediterranean Agenda
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Establishing coherent US policy regarding brewing conflict in the eastern Mediterranean should be a Biden administration priority. By restraining Erdogan’s ambitions, the US can add to stability and rebuild bridges with key European players and traditional US allies. The governments of Israel and Greece, in consultation with Egypt, should work together to advance this perspective in Washington.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Leadership, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, North America, United States of America, and Mediterranean
41. Restoring American Bipartisan Commitment Towards Israel: A Moral Duty and Strategic Necessity
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- It is possible to restore American bipartisan backing for Israel. Therefore, it is important to avoid being too identified with President Trump, despite Israeli gratitude due to him for many of his policies. Bonds between Israel and American Jewry should be bolstered; bridges should be built to both sides of the aisle in Congress; and US defense establishment support should be solicited. All this, in view of Israel’s need to influence decisions in Washington on matters vital to its future.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Religion, Alliance, Domestic Policy, and Partisanship
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
42. Why Pakistan won’t be next to normalize with Israel
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Domestic constraints, support for Palestine and growing ties with Iran will likely continue to keep Pakistan and Israel apart.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, Normalization, and Domestic Policy
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
43. Assessing the US strategy in Iraq
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Only an integrated political, military and economic strategy targeting the Iranian system in all its aspects, with a long-term commitment to local allies and the mission, can succeed.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
44. Reassessing Russian Capabilities in the Levant and North Africa
- Author:
- Frederic M. Wehrey and Andrew S. Weiss
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Russia may be back in the Middle East, but is it a truly strategic player? The picture is decidedly mixed. After abandoning most of its presence in the Levant and North Africa during the late 1980s, the Kremlin has alarmed Western policymakers in recent years by filling power vacuums and exploiting the missteps of the United States and the European states. Moscow panders to the insecurities and ambitions of local regimes, trying to enrich itself along the way. While Russian activism is part of a broader push for great power status, most of its policies are rooted more in opportunism than grand strategy. Yet Russian influence is formidable in many respects. In war-wracked states like Syria and Libya, Moscow has adroitly deployed military forces and engaged with actors that are off-limits to Westerners, thus positioning itself as a significant power broker. In Egypt and Algeria, it has pursued arms deals that are unencumbered by human rights conditions. Russia’s economic footprint is expanding in fields ranging from infrastructure to tourism to energy, contributing, in some instances, to the region’s cronyism and corruption. At the same time, a closer look at Russian activism reveals that its ability to shape events in the Middle East is far more modest than is commonly assumed. Russia has neither the tools nor the willingness to tackle the region’s deep-seated socioeconomic and governance problems. In Syria, the limits of the Kremlin’s military commitment have been exposed amid clashes with other powerful, outside players and a hardening stalemate on the ground. For now, Moscow is simply not in a position to achieve its desired military or political outcomes absent a significant investment of new resources. Russian economic penetration is driven mainly by short-term objectives and a search for outsized financial rewards that sometimes fail to materialize or to make Moscow an attractive partner. Russian inroads are further limited by regional factors like fractured politics and capricious local actors, who, despite being plied with Russian attention and support, do not behave as docile proxies. In many instances, Middle Eastern rulers exert far more power in shaping the extent of Russian influence than conventional narratives suggest. Successive leaders of Egypt, for instance, have perfected the game of soliciting Russia’s attention to gain leverage over other patrons, namely the United States. For their part, Israeli leaders have worked hard to ensure that Russia does not throw major obstacles in the way of Israel’s ongoing campaign against Iranian military encroachment in Syria—yet they surely take note when Moscow does the bare minimum in raising concerns about the situation in Gaza. The limits of Russian influence are similarly noticeable in the heartbreaking economic crisis in Lebanon, where Moscow is little more than a bystander. With these limitations in mind, Washington should avoid viewing the region through a zero-sum, Cold War lens that sees every development as a net gain or loss for Moscow or minimizes the agency of local actors. In the context of multiple policy challenges across the globe and at home, U.S. decisionmakers need to prioritize the areas of Russian influence that necessitate a response. In so doing, they should avoid playing the arms sales game on Moscow’s terms or letting themselves be instrumentalized by autocratic Middle Eastern rulers who point to Russian overtures to seek leniency and support from Washington. U.S. and European policymakers have ample tools at their disposal that can frustrate or slow the more malign forms of Moscow’s inroads. Yet the net impact of such pushback on Russian resolve should not be overstated. Instead, Washington should focus its energies on its biggest comparative advantage vis-à-vis Moscow in the region: namely, its abundant sources of influence and leverage in the economic and security spheres, its still-potent soft power, and its leadership of multilateral diplomacy and the rules-based global order.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Economy, and Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, North America, and Levant
45. How Syria Changed Turkey’s Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Francesco Siccardi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Between August 2016 and the present, Turkey has launched four military operations in northern Syria. Each operation has served specific objectives and was designed to respond to rapidly changing scenarios on the ground. It is possible to identify the key priorities that have informed Turkey’s Syria policy over the years. Boiled down to its core, the Turkish government’s activism in Syria has been driven by domestic politics and has helped Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) preserve power. Domestically, Ankara has used the Syrian conflict as a pretext to suppress the rights of the Kurds living in Turkey and limit their parliamentary representation to secure a landmark constitutional reform in 2017. In the following years, successive military operations in Syria have helped Erdoğan connect with increasingly nationalistic constituencies and drum up support around key electoral dates. Finally, after the failed coup in July 2016, the Turkish government’s Syria policy played a major role in rebuilding the credibility of the Turkish Armed Forces while redrawing the balance between civilian and military power. In foreign policy terms, Turkey’s military operations in Syria have resulted in increasingly tense relations with the United States. Washington’s support for the Syrian Kurds has alienated Ankara to an extent that U.S. policymakers failed to anticipate. The thorniest topic of the day in the U.S.-Turkey bilateral relation—Ankara’s decision to deploy the Russian S-400 missile system—is also deeply related to the Syrian crisis. This decision was made in the context of a strategic realignment between Turkey and Russia that has helped both countries pursue their respective objectives in Syria: the survival of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad’s regime for Moscow and the weakening of the Syrian Kurds for Ankara. Finally, Ankara’s involvement in Syria has also given Turkey new leverage over the EU when it comes to the management of refugee flows. Solving the question of Syrian refugees in Turkey has been a priority of the Turkish government since the early stages of the Syrian civil war—and a main driver of Ankara’s policies toward both Syria and the EU. Overall, Ankara’s involvement in Syria has not only been a source of conflict—or rapprochement—with its traditional partners and neighbors across the region. It has also equipped Turkey with new tools for conducting a more aggressive, nationalistic foreign policy. The strategies Turkey has employed in Syria have boosted the country’s image and international role. These operations have secured a seat for Turkey at the negotiating table with Russia and the United States. Ankara has used these tools, these lessons learned, and its new capabilities to inform its revisionist foreign policy posture. Going forward, and with an eye on the country’s 2023 presidential election, Turkey will continue to use these tools to reinforce its position in the international arena.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, Syrian War, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
46. Turkey’s African adventure: Taking stock of a new chapter in EU-Turkey relations
- Author:
- Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Georgios Christos Kostaras
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Since its official adoption in 2005, Turkey’s “Africa Opening” (Afrika Açılımı) has become one of the most important elements in its foreign policy and resulted in the diversification of Turkey’s economic and political relations with sub-Saharan African states. While African-Turkish relations were broadly perceived as advanced by 2010, Ankara´s humanitarian involvement in Somalia the following year has been a catalyst for Turkey´s growing influence in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel. Emphasizing both the absence of a colonial past and its religious affinities, Turkey has further promoted its relations and influence across the continent. This is most evident in the Sahel, where the strategies of Ankara and Paris are at loggerheads. EU and Turkish interests in Africa are not necessarily irreconcilable; Africa, a continent whose economic and strategic significance is set to sharply rise, deserves more attention from Greece and the European Union.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean
47. Turkish drones, Greek challenges
- Author:
- Antonis Kamaras
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses the evolution of Turkey’s capacity to conduct drone-led warfare, an evolution driven by its assertive national security and foreign policy. It connects this feature of Turkey’s war-fighting capability to the debate on the impact drones have on the modern battlefield and on conflictual interstate relations. The paper attributes the underdevelopment of Greece’s drone and counter-drone capacity to the country’s fiscal crisis and to the civilian leadership’s unwillingness to make use of Greece’s alliances, geographical position and R&D ecosystem to develop such capacities. The analysis identifies the factors and processes that can accelerate the speed at which the Greek armed forces ready themselves to meet the evolving challenges—including drones—posed by their assertive neighbour.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, Drones, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Greece, and Mediterranean
48. Turkey’s Post-2016 Foreign Policy Drivers: Militarisation, Islam, Civilisation and Power
- Author:
- Ahmet Öztürk
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Dramatic political changes in Turkey are not limited to the degradation of state institutions or the democratic backsliding. Turkey is experiencing a substantial change in foreign policy as well. In this context, this study argues that new Turkey’s new foreign policy understanding rests on four inter-related parameters that pertain to the priorities of the country’s ruling coalition: militarisation, Islam, civilisation and power.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Islam, Civilization, and Militarization
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean
49. Turkey and the West: A Hostile Dance
- Author:
- Nick Danforth
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Tensions between Turkey and the West have steadily worsened over the past five years, but analysts are still no closer to predicting what this means for the future. Many assume that longstanding strategic and economic ties will ultimately force both sides to muddle through and preserve their relationship, while others anticipate that pressure will build to the point where a decisive break becomes inevitable. This paper examines a number of different scenarios that have been put forward for Turkey’s relations with the US and EU, then tries to navigate between the most plausible among them to predict how this hostile dance might progress.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, United States of America, and Mediterranean
50. Revisiting and going beyond the EU-Turkey migration agreement of 2016: an opportunity for Greece to overcome being just “Europe’s aspis”
- Author:
- Kemal Kirisçi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- In contrast to early last year, marked by a “border crisis” that erupted after the Turkish President finally put into action his long-standing threat to “open the border” for Syrian refugees, the year 2021 had a more promising start. The intense tensions in the Aegean Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean that followed the “border crisis” appear to be subsiding. The European Council statement of March 25 offers a possible framework for dialogue and diplomacy to take over from what was an annus horribilis in Greek-Turkish and EU-Turkish relations. Within this framework, room is also made for revisiting the EU-Turkey statement adopted in March 2016 to manage the aftermath of the European migration crisis that had seen a mass displacement of refugees and migrants primarily from Turkey to Greece and on to Europe. The statement has had many opponents and its implementation has faced multiple grievances and recriminations from both sides. Addressing and overcoming these challenges will call for extensive diplomatic effort, good will and take considerable time. In the interim, however, the emerging positive climate offers the possibility to explore expanding cooperation in a relatively successful but inadequately appreciated part of the EU-Turkey statement known as the Facility for Refugees in Turkey (FRIT). FRIT has been instrumental in supporting Syrian and other refugees in Turkey. It has been an important manifestation of burden-sharing with Turkey and has benefitted refugees in concrete terms. Advancing cooperation in this area would also help contribute to mutual confidence building and have a positive spill over into other more complicated issue areas in the migration domain and broader bilateral relations.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Migration, Treaties and Agreements, and Refugees
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Greece, and Mediterranean