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202. The Sweet Victory Against Ben & Jerry’s Deters Others
- Author:
- Yifa Segal
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- With the defeat of Ben& Jerry’s attempted boycott, a new equation was created – boycotting Israel will lead to immense financial harm.
- Topic:
- Business, Protests, BDS, Fiscal Policy, and Boycott
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
203. Egypt as the Cornerstone of the New Regional Security Architecture
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The stability and orientation of the region’s most populous country, Egypt, remain crucial components of the newly emerging regional security architecture and its new strategic alignments.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Egypt, and MENA
204. Normalizing Relations Between Israel and the Arab World Continues Calmly in a Turbulent World
- Author:
- Hillel Frisch
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Arab publics are engrossed by the challenges that they face in their states.
- Topic:
- Security, Conflict, Violence, and Normalization
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Middle East
205. A New Middle East
- Author:
- Yaakov Amidror
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Changing Israel’s relationship with Arab countries is vital for its regional legitimacy, but it is also in the best interests of the Arab world. Sunni Arab countries want relations with Israel to create a safer region and better tools to deal with the complex reality they face after the “Arab Spring,” in the face of Iranian aggression and American hesitancy.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Religion, and Arab Spring
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
206. Understanding Israeli-Palestinian two-state solution delusion
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The idea that a Jewish and a Palestinian state will coexist peacefully is widespread in contemporary academic and political circles but ignores the reality on the ground.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Nation Building
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
207. Israel Caves to Bad Maritime Deal
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- We should not forget that moderate Arab states are watching Israeli behavior, especially in the Gulf. Without determined and effective action, Israel’s allies in the region, wary of American withdrawal and fearful of Iran, will be reluctant to rely on Israel and could later move closer to Tehran.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Israel
208. Israel-Lebanon Maritime Deal Demonstrates Israeli Weakness
- Author:
- Omer Dostri
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- It is unclear whether endorsing a lousy agreement is preferable to a violent confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah. Israel should not be afraid of military conflict.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Maritime, Hezbollah, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
209. The Maritime Border Agreement with Lebanon
- Author:
- Yaakov Amidror
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The agreement with Lebanon over the maritime border has several implications and needs to be examined from different angles.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, Maritime, Conflict, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
210. The 2022 protests in Iran
- Author:
- Beni Sabti
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The latest protests in Iran have different characteristics from previous protests that symbolize a generational transition, reflecting an ideological gap between the old leadership of the revolution and the younger generation in Iran
- Topic:
- Social Movement, Protests, Ideology, Youth Movement, and Age
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
211. The Libyan EEZ Challenge: Israel Should Reject Turkey’s Claims in the Eastern Mediterranean
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The delineation of the Libyan and Turkish Exclusive Economic Zones was and remains essential not only for Israel and Egypt but also for others in the region who seek to curtail Erdogan’s ambitions and shore up Egypt’s economic and political stability.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Mediterranean
212. When American progressives lose direction, an Israeli compass is needed
- Author:
- Gabi Siboni and Kobi Michael
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The proposal to return the Palestinians to the center of the stage undermines stability in the Middle East, which serves American interests.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Democracy, Progressivism, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
213. The New Government Should Not Abandon Jerusalem
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Coalition negotiations on forming the new government demonstrate that preserving Israel’s capital is a low priority. It is a mistake.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, State Building, Strategic Interests, and Territory
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
214. WPA in Afghanistan: Betrayal and Renewal
- Author:
- Farkhondeh Akbari
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
- Abstract:
- The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan on 15 August 2021 unraveled significant achievements of the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda in Afghanistan over the last two decades.1 Every western donor present in the country pushed the WPS agenda over the past two decades of their engagement in Afghanistan. The previous Government of Afghanistan adopted a National Action Plan on Women, Peace and Security in 2015. They made concerted efforts to implement the NAP by promoting women’s participation in the peace process, the parliament, in government and the security sector, and to protect women and girls from gender-based violence and other violations of their human rights.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Governance, Taliban, Women, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Middle East
215. The Security Ghost of the January 25th Revolution in al-Sisi Regime’s Policy toward Gaza
- Author:
- Shaimaa Magued
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- This study argues that al-Sisi regime has been haunted by the January 25 uprisings as a potential recurrent threat to the state survival during the formulation of national and foreign politics. In the aim of boosting its international legitimacy before Western allies, especially the US, the regime has capitalized on political instabilities in Gaza as a means to ensure its security grip on power without incurring foreign allies’ critics for human rights violations. How did al-Sisi regime mobilize Gaza as a means for bolstering its international credibility before Western bailers and shunning off the January 25 security ghost? In answering this question, this study refers to haunted politics in foreign policy-making as an informative perspective about the impact of traumatic events on ruling regimes’ interpretation of incidents, convocation of memories, recreation of meanings, and subjugation of citizens. Unlike Mubarak’s limited support for the Palestinian cause and Morsi’s exclusive ties with Hamas, al-Sisi adopted a balanced approach toward Gaza in the aim of counterbalancing the US reservations over the regime’s human rights violations since 2013.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Revolution, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt
216. New Turkey’s new diasporic constellations: The Gezi generation and beyond
- Author:
- Duygu Öztürk
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Turkey, like other countries from both East and West, is gradually withdrawing from international cooperation and seeking recourse to a new distinction between civilizations based on a synthesis of nationalism and nostalgic visions of history, memory, and religion. This transformation has been taking place under the rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) and his unofficial Islamist and nationalist coalition partners. The latest outflow constitutes a significant wave of migration from Turkey, the largest since the 1990s when displaced, politically-active Kurds left the country in record numbers due to human rights violations and criminalization. Furthermore, one can easily argue that Turkey is also losing some of its brightest people due to the socio-political pressure and shrinking economy. This new wave of migration is changing the profile of the Turkish diaspora in European countries. Recent migrants are not necessarily in solidarity with one another and may have competing interests. These dynamics are transferred to destination, where the interaction between the newcomers and the older diasporas cause new tensions. Moreover, some elements of the diaspora are supportive of the authoritarian measures, and there are widening trust issues among diaspora groups from different backgrounds. These new developments have turned the diasporic landscape into a highly contested space and a playing field for the transnationalization of Turkey’s domestic disputes. Overall, an analysis of the interviews shows that leavers who had to make an involuntary migration decision did so quickly, without a chance to evaluate consequences, best routes or alternatives. Others who left voluntarily had been considering the decision for a long time, and had made enquiries about which country or sector would be the most beneficial for them. Interviews with individuals who did not need to escape immediately left us with the impression that there is a larger community in Turkey today who may be planning to leave at the first opportunity; the lifestyle migration trends we are observing today could, in the long run, prove to be the tip of the iceberg. It is too early to comment on how the contemporary waves of migration out of Turkey will shape the exporting of Turkey’s domestic conflicts to its diaspora. However, the current situation can give us insights into the direction inter- and intra-group interactions will take in the near future.
- Topic:
- Migration, Diaspora, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and AKP
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean
217. Turkey’s African adventure: Taking stock of a new chapter in EU-Turkey relations
- Author:
- Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Georgios Christos Kostaras
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Since its official adoption in 2005, Turkey’s “Africa Opening” (Afrika Açılımı) has become one of the most important elements in its foreign policy and resulted in the diversification of Turkey’s economic and political relations with sub-Saharan African states. While African-Turkish relations were broadly perceived as advanced by 2010, Ankara´s humanitarian involvement in Somalia the following year has been a catalyst for Turkey´s growing influence in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel. Emphasizing both the absence of a colonial past and its religious affinities, Turkey has further promoted its relations and influence across the continent. This is most evident in the Sahel, where the strategies of Ankara and Paris are at loggerheads. EU and Turkish interests in Africa are not necessarily irreconcilable; Africa, a continent whose economic and strategic significance is set to sharply rise, deserves more attention from Greece and the European Union.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean
218. ΕU-Turkey Relations and the Migration Challenge: What is the Way Forward?
- Author:
- Panayotis Tsakonas
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Although disruption remains the norm in Turkey’s behavior, the EU should stand firm in developing a strategy of “balancing engagement” to keep Turkey anchored in the broader European and transatlantic framework. The Customs Union is an important instrument at the EU’s disposal for concluding an agreement with Turkey and negotiations can lead to an agreement that would balance European and Turkish interests. Moreover, a European strategy towards Turkey should address not only the immediate challenge of Turkey’s assertive behavior in the Eastern Mediterranean, but also the future of EU-Turkey relations along with the pressing migration challenge. An updated EU-Turkey Statement should rectify certain provisions of the current Statement on migration regarding Greece as well as Turkey’s intention to exploit migrants and refugees. Greece is in favor of a “rules-based” relationship between the European Union and Turkey. It could be an active contributor to the advancement of the EU strategy of “balancing engagement” by co-shaping Turkey’s new relationship with the EU.
- Topic:
- Migration, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean
219. Greece’s Rise as a Trans-Mediterranean Power: Greece’s Eastern Mediterranean strategic shift to Europe-to-Africa and Europe-to-Middle East connectivity
- Author:
- Michaël Tanchum
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Greece stands at the threshold of a strategic shift that could see the Hellenic Republic become Europe’s geopolitical gatekeeper of the emerging East Africa-to-Europe and Middle East-to-Europe commercial corridors. Whether Greece becomes a European leader in trans-Mediterranean connectivity depends on Athens’ ability to develop its own position in East Africa-to-Europe and Middle East-to-Europe manufacturing value chains. Greece’s advancing green energy, innovation economy offers promising avenues to engage Egypt, Israel, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia in joint ventures that will transform Greece into a cutting-edge trans-Mediterranean actor. Greece’s new trans-Mediterranean profile is a strategic shift that will require the EU system to adjust its perception of Greece and incentivize closer coordination between Greece and other member states to facilitate joint venture investments in the two corridors. In the absence of such coordination, Athens will continue to deepen its relations with Egypt, Israel, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia while engaging with select EU member states. The extent to which Greece succeeds at industrial value chain integration will determine its role in the emerging trans-regional commercial architecture, and with it, Greece’s strategic standing within the European Union and the MENA region.
- Topic:
- European Union, Geopolitics, Trade, and Value Chains
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Middle East, Greece, and Mediterranean
220. Turkish drones, Greek challenges
- Author:
- Antonis Kamaras
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses the evolution of Turkey’s capacity to conduct drone-led warfare, an evolution driven by its assertive national security and foreign policy. It connects this feature of Turkey’s war-fighting capability to the debate on the impact drones have on the modern battlefield and on conflictual interstate relations. The paper attributes the underdevelopment of Greece’s drone and counter-drone capacity to the country’s fiscal crisis and to the civilian leadership’s unwillingness to make use of Greece’s alliances, geographical position and R&D ecosystem to develop such capacities. The analysis identifies the factors and processes that can accelerate the speed at which the Greek armed forces ready themselves to meet the evolving challenges—including drones—posed by their assertive neighbour.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, Drones, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Greece, and Mediterranean
221. Turkey’s Post-2016 Foreign Policy Drivers: Militarisation, Islam, Civilisation and Power
- Author:
- Ahmet Öztürk
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Dramatic political changes in Turkey are not limited to the degradation of state institutions or the democratic backsliding. Turkey is experiencing a substantial change in foreign policy as well. In this context, this study argues that new Turkey’s new foreign policy understanding rests on four inter-related parameters that pertain to the priorities of the country’s ruling coalition: militarisation, Islam, civilisation and power.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Islam, Civilization, and Militarization
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean
222. Turkey and the West: A Hostile Dance
- Author:
- Nick Danforth
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Tensions between Turkey and the West have steadily worsened over the past five years, but analysts are still no closer to predicting what this means for the future. Many assume that longstanding strategic and economic ties will ultimately force both sides to muddle through and preserve their relationship, while others anticipate that pressure will build to the point where a decisive break becomes inevitable. This paper examines a number of different scenarios that have been put forward for Turkey’s relations with the US and EU, then tries to navigate between the most plausible among them to predict how this hostile dance might progress.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, United States of America, and Mediterranean
223. Revisiting and going beyond the EU-Turkey migration agreement of 2016: an opportunity for Greece to overcome being just “Europe’s aspis”
- Author:
- Kemal Kirisçi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- In contrast to early last year, marked by a “border crisis” that erupted after the Turkish President finally put into action his long-standing threat to “open the border” for Syrian refugees, the year 2021 had a more promising start. The intense tensions in the Aegean Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean that followed the “border crisis” appear to be subsiding. The European Council statement of March 25 offers a possible framework for dialogue and diplomacy to take over from what was an annus horribilis in Greek-Turkish and EU-Turkish relations. Within this framework, room is also made for revisiting the EU-Turkey statement adopted in March 2016 to manage the aftermath of the European migration crisis that had seen a mass displacement of refugees and migrants primarily from Turkey to Greece and on to Europe. The statement has had many opponents and its implementation has faced multiple grievances and recriminations from both sides. Addressing and overcoming these challenges will call for extensive diplomatic effort, good will and take considerable time. In the interim, however, the emerging positive climate offers the possibility to explore expanding cooperation in a relatively successful but inadequately appreciated part of the EU-Turkey statement known as the Facility for Refugees in Turkey (FRIT). FRIT has been instrumental in supporting Syrian and other refugees in Turkey. It has been an important manifestation of burden-sharing with Turkey and has benefitted refugees in concrete terms. Advancing cooperation in this area would also help contribute to mutual confidence building and have a positive spill over into other more complicated issue areas in the migration domain and broader bilateral relations.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Migration, Treaties and Agreements, and Refugees
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Greece, and Mediterranean
224. Turkey: A Problem Partner?
- Author:
- ELIAMEP
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- It was around the mid-2000s when Turkey—if only for a short period of time—promulgated the idea of “zero problems with neighbours”. At the time, Turkey was seeking positive reforms in all aspects of public life and a cooperative future with neighbouring countries based on mutual understanding and converging interests. Furthermore, Turkey imagined itself as a bridge between, not as a wall separating and isolating, different regions. Unfortunately, those days are long gone. For almost a decade now, Turkey has been reactionary in its treatment of its own citizens and solipsistic with regard to its neighbours. Democratic backsliding and human rights abuses inside Turkey have become the norm, while militarisation and unilateralism increasingly characterise its foreign policy choices. Its government actions have begun to resemble those of a rogue state. This report seeks neither to explain the intricacies of Erdoğan’s problematic behaviour towards its own people and the rest of the world, nor to denigrate Turkey’s standing. Rather, it aims to raise the alarm about the slippery slope Turkey finds itself on, hopefully well before his governance causes irreparable damage to the region. The report starts by presenting general aspects of Turkey’s relationship with international stakeholders, such as the EU and the US. It proceeds by mapping out internal developments that exemplify strong tendencies of democratic backsliding and human rights abuses. The third part focuses on regional aspects of Turkey’s foreign policy behaviour, starting with the most severe cases that epitomize the militarisation of its foreign policy and violations of international law. It concludes with various cases of political differences between Turkey and states on its periphery, which, combined with the other more severe cases described, demonstrate how Turkey’s foreign policy expectations of ‘zero problems with neighbours’ have turned into a ‘zero neighbours’ reality.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Domestic Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean
225. “The Times They Are A-Changin'”? – Three Turkish Opposition Parties
- Author:
- Evangelos Areteos
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- While the main focus of international media and academics is oriented towards Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP), together with their nationalist allies, the Turkish opposition is giving growing signs of deep changes and transformations. Obliged to operate within a “competitive authoritarian” environment, the three biggest parties of the opposition, namely the Republican People’s Party (Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi-CHP), the Good Party (İYİ Parti) and the Democracy and Progress Party (Demokrasi ve Atılım Partisi-DEVA) are in a multidimensional process of transformation and adaptation to the emerging needs and expectations of a growing part of the Turkish society. By exploring new ways to circumvent polarization that brings them closer to the vibrant society, and by searching for new interpretations of nationalism that open new perspectives of inclusiveness, these three opposition parties have the potential to emerge not only as significant political alternatives but also as a reflection of societal change.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Political Parties, AKP, and Polarization
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean
226. The EU-Turkey Visa Liberalization Saga: Lessons from the European Neighborhood
- Author:
- Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Ayşe Tuba Uslu
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- This policy paper co-authored by Ioannis Grigoriadis, Senior Research Fellow of ELIAMEP and Head of its Turkey Programme, and Ayşe Tuba Uslu, Senior at the Department of International Relations of Bilkent University, lays out the main challenges for the successful conclusion of the Visa Liberalization Dialogue (VLD) between the European Union and Turkey. It examines the impact of democratic backsliding, the decline of the rule of law, fundamental rights and divergence in the legal framework regarding organized crime and anti-terrorism on the VLD and highlights the mistrust that has developed between the parties. Through a comparison between Ukrainian, Georgian, Moldovan and Turkish VLDs, it aims to highlight how the VLD could come to a successful conclusion.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Migration, Rule of Law, Visa, and Liberalization
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, Moldova, Middle East, Georgia, and Mediterranean
227. Strategic Report
- Author:
- Zaid Eyadat and Moh'd Khair Eiedat
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
- Abstract:
- This is not a historical nor chronological report. It is rather “a working paper”. The purpose of this rather brief report is to reflect on three major issues: first, what are the characteristics of the world we live in? How stable and predictable is it? Are those in power know what are they doing? Or is it the blind leading the blind? Is our sense of uncertainty and thus unpredictability a product of mental crisis related to one in a lifetime pandemic experience? or is it more structural with long historical span? The second question is how dangerous and out of control is the Middle east region? Or is it? The Abraham Accords promise a new dawn for the region? Paradise is just around the corner or the calm preceding the storm? The third question, where does Jordan fit in these wider circles of activities both global and regional? Deliberately we left out of the report any serious considerations of the economic aspect challenge facing Jordan which is both self-evident and widely recognized. Moreover, the emphasis is on the geostrategic aspects of security related to the global level, the regional level and that of Jordan. Let us first look at the world.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Power, Geopolitics, and Strategic Planning
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan
228. The Role of CSOs in Political Participation and Democratization in Jordan
- Author:
- Zaid Eyadat and Alakyaz Assadorian
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
- Abstract:
- As the term 'civil society' nears the centennial of introduction to public debate, it is nigh time to reflect on the impact and challenges of the Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) in Jordan. Despite noteworthy progress accomplished in the societal and political spheres, there is a number of challenges for CSOs in the current environment. Several crossroads ahead of the more effective and efficient role of the CSOs hinder their future role. The pervasive challenge for CSOs throughout the years has been the delineation of their roles in civic space. Throughout the upturns and downfalls of the last century, the absence of a specific legal definition, by which the local community, governmental and non-governmental institutions and scholars work, the influence of CSOs necessarily remains limited. The lack of a clear definition particularly challenges the impact on political participation and democratization. Over decades, the gap between a false sense of power granted and the actual impactfulness of CSOs in Jordan grew. The crucial challenge seems to remain the regime's effort to install a system of social control over associational activities rendering them easily predictable. Hence civil organizations were encouraged in the appellation of "political liberalization." Jordan essentially introduced a defense mechanism against instability and economic/political crisis. Hardly exceptional case in the region with similar systems, particularly in Egypt and Morocco. Today, CSOs continue to face these challenges, seriously hindering their role in instituting political reform in Jordan. Unable to mobilize grassroots movements on a large scale and rally a broad constituency, many CSOs are closing towards the regime-made glass ceiling. The lack of a clear, unified registration body for CSOs keeps the opportunity for cronyism in finance distribution by the dispersion of the decision-making process. Additionally, for political-oriented CSOs, the diffusion of their efforts and complicated alliance-building hinders their effectiveness in challenging regime democratization. Still, the present conditions to CSOs' governance are but one of several challenges, most important of which is funding related [3]. Even within the stipulated government-granted boundaries, many CSOs face the challenge of attracting financial backing for various reasons, from the lack of "professionalism" for foreign investors to the very niche nature of their purpose and pervasive cronyism. This study aims to help CSOs to help them to adjust and enhance their internal governance and capacities in reaching out to their target communities and improve self-presentation. Therefore, this project is introducing evidence-based data to identify possible gaps and assist in developing necessary capacities. In this paper, we discuss the position of Jordanian CSOs, how their role in political participation and democratization is shaped, what challenges obscure their participation potential in political change and peaceful democratic transition, and the means for activating and better engaging CSOs in the decision-making process.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, Institutions, Civil Society Organizations, and Political Participation
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Jordan
229. "The New Levant": Rationales, implications and future trajectories of the cooperation between Jordan, Iraq and Egypt
- Author:
- Neil Quilliam, Zaid Eyadat, Harith Hasan, Abdelmonem Said Aly, Riham Bahi, Noor Alshyab, Amer Al Sabaileh, Johannes Uhl, and Adnan Tabatabai
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
- Abstract:
- In cooperation with Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS), the Center for Strategic Studies (CSS) at the University of Jordan held a 2-day closed workshop, in Amman, with regional and international experts on the topic of the tripartite alliance between Jordan, Iraq and Egypt, discussing the nature and timing of the alliance, the national perspectives of each signatory state, policy areas of cooperation and implications for other regional actors. This introductory summary presents some of the ideas discussed during the workshop, but does not necessarily reflect the opinion or assessment of each participant or the hosting institutions.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Energy Policy, Regional Cooperation, Partnerships, Alliance, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Egypt, and Jordan
230. President Biden Has Five Options for Future Negotiations with Iran
- Author:
- Pat Shilo and Todd Rosenblum
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Third Way
- Abstract:
- President Biden has announced plans to re-engage with Iran on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal. In this paper, we briefly outline the five most likely pathways ahead, each of which has strengths and challenges: Return to the JCPOA as it was. Return to the JCPOA plus new commitments that address other security concerns with Iran. Restore the JCPOA as it was plus a set of confidence-building measures to address other security concerns. Formally link a requirement for Iran to address our other concerns as a pre-condition for further talks. Return to the pre-JCPOA Middle East, where US and allies work to rollback Iran’s nuclear program and actively deter its regional actions by confrontation, punishment, and isolating measures. Each path carries risk and opportunity for restoring American leadership in the world, and congressional Democrats should remember the perfect deal does not exist. Members of Congress would be wise to measure the next deal against the status quo ante: an unconstrained, belligerent Iran again racing to a bomb.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Military Strategy, Denuclearization, and JCPOA
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
231. Israel and Lebanon: A Bridge Over Troubled Waters?
- Author:
- Nir Boms and Stephane Cohen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Amidst a deep political and economic crisis in Lebanon, accelerated by the Beirut port explosion in August last year, the end of 2020 witnessed a surprising round of talks regarding the demarcation of the Israeli-Lebanese maritime border. These bilateral negotiations - mediated by the U.S. and the U.N. - are the first non-security talks held between the two countries since the 1990s. Of course, Lebanon and Israel have no diplomatic relations and are technically in a state of war. The incentives for progress in the talks are strong as they could pave the way for lucrative oil and gas deals on both sides, though there still appear to be significant obstacles on the Lebanese side. Speaking with John Desrocher, the most recent U.S. mediator for the negotiations, in December 2020, Lebanese President Aoun was quoted as saying that Lebanon wants the talks to succeed because “this will strengthen stability in the South and allow us to invest in natural resources of oil and gas.”[1] Could a maritime border agreement between Israel and Lebanon be feasible, despite the otherwise toxic atmosphere between the two countries and the recent escalating threats of Hizballah? In a region full of surprises, this, too, might be a part of a changing reality.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Economy, Negotiation, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
232. Kuwait’s New Government: A Political System in Crisis?
- Author:
- Eran Segal
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Kuwait’s new government, which was sworn in on March 3, is facing what could be a "perfect storm," combining a troublesome mix of political and economic problems that could lead to a substantial change, and perhaps instability. These developments raise the specter of a crisis similar to that of 2012, when Kuwait experienced two separate elections and massive demonstrations.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Kuwait
233. The “Non-State” State in Iraqi Political Discourse and Action
- Author:
- Ofra Bengio
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- For several years, the concept of “Iraq as a ‘non-state’” (Iraq al-ladawla) has been circulating within the Iraqi political sphere. This concept became the focus of heated debate among politicians, intellectuals, and journalists across the entire Iraqi political spectrum since the outbreak of the popular uprising in Iraq in October 2019. What is the meaning of this term? What were the circumstances that led to the development of the debate in Iraq? What political and socio-economic problems does it reflect?
- Topic:
- Politics, Non State Actors, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
234. Morocco’s Normalization with Israel: The Party for Justice and Development (PJD)’s Reaction
- Author:
- Tiziana della Ragione
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In December 2020, following the Abraham Accords framework mediated by the United States, Morocco agreed to restore its official diplomatic ties with Israel after a 20-year break, and, in return, the Trump Administration recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over the long-disputed territory of Western Sahara. The initial steps to normalize Israeli-Moroccan ties followed quickly on the heels of the official announcements. On January 25, Israel’s liaison office reopened in Rabat while Morocco's diplomatic representation in Tel Aviv is expected to follow later this month, after the arrival to Israel of the Head of Morocco's diplomatic mission Abderrahim Beyyoud in February.[1] While the process for implementing the peace agreement between the two countries continues, with economic, cultural, and social collaborations, the Party for Justice and Development (PJD), the Moroccan Islamist ruling party, has faced criticism for its acquiescence to the Palace’s decision. By aligning itself with King Mohammed VI’s decision to normalize with Israel, the PJD has shown that it is more interested in preserving its good relations with the Palace and winning the King’s support for its domestic agenda of socio-economic reforms, than in taking a hard line on Palestine. During the PJD-led government of Abdelillah Benkirane (2012-2016), successful socio-economic reforms led to its attaining an additional 18 parliamentary seats in the October 2016 elections, reinforcing its position as the largest party in parliament. In muting its criticism of the normalization process, PJD is preserving its position in the political arena and focusing on its socio-economic agenda, which it sees as the key to its success. However, in doing so, the PJD risks alienating a portion of its constituency, which may view its silence in defense of Palestine as a form of ideological betrayal.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North Africa, and Morocco
235. Iran in Syria: From Expansion to Entrenchment
- Author:
- Ido Yahel
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Iranian involvement in the Syrian civil war has often made headlines in Israel. Particularly in the context of the Israel Defense Force (IDF)’s so-called campaign between the wars (the Hebrew acronym is Mabam), which has included attempts to prevent Iran from establishing military bases in Syria, keeping Iranian forces away from the Syrian-Israeli border, and thwarting the transfer of precision weapons to Hizballah. But Iranian involvement in Syria goes far beyond the confines of the Israeli-Iranian conflict. As a result of the "Arab Spring" uprising and the Syrian civil war, Iran has succeeded in establishing itself in areas far from the Israeli-Syrian border and extended its influence in Syria beyond the military sphere.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, Conflict, and Syrian War
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Syria
236. Is the Muslim Brotherhood losing Turkey and Qatar in the light of the rapprochement with Egypt?
- Author:
- Michael Barak
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Egypt's relations with Turkey and Qatar have been improving for the last six months, following a long period of diplomatic crises and hostility that lasted eight years and four years, respectively. This rapprochement is an attempt to reset relations in a way that would allow all three parties to maintain their good relations with the new U.S. administration. As a condition for normalizing ties, Egypt had demanded that Turkey and Qatar end their support to the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). This demand has been described in the Arab media as an ominous sign for the MB, which feared it would be sacrificed on the altar of Turkish and Qatari state interests. However, the discourse of the MB's members on the subject, the continued anti-Egyptian remarks of senior Turkish government officials, and the intention of the Egyptian government to execute senior MB leaders suggests that the chances of Turkey and the MB ending their relationship are quite slim. Qatar, for its part, continues to allow the MB's members to find refuge within its borders, but at the same time is not interested in provoking Egypt.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Government, and Muslim Brotherhood
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Egypt, Qatar, and Gulf Nations
237. Hizballah’s Gain, Lebanon’s Pain
- Author:
- Joel Parker and Sarah Cahn
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- On August 6, Hizballah fired 20 rockets towards the Shebaa Farms area of the Golan Heights, highlighting the growing political instability in Lebanon. Hizballah's behavior should be viewed in light of the ongoing financial and political crisis that has affected every aspect of Lebanese life since late 2019 and has pushed hundreds of thousands of people into poverty. Hizballah may not be the primary or sole cause of the crisis, but it is important to understand how it may have contributed indirectly to it, how it may benefit from it, and why it may not have an interest in fully resolving it. Hanin Ghaddar, the Friedmann Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP), argues that despite the collapsing economy in Lebanon, Hizballah has been able to expand its array of social-welfare institutions to deepen their Shiʿi constituency's dependence and even expand the reach of these programs by providing support to a growing number of Lebanese who are struggling to survive. Hizballah also receives funding from Iran and through its commercial activities around the world, so one might ask how much Hizballah really needs the Lebanese state. Lina Khatib, a scholar at Chatham House and SOAS University of London, contends that Hizballah benefits from its hybrid role as a part of the state and, at the same time, free to operate outside the official channels of government and public scrutiny. Michael Young, senior editor at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, however, has argued that the group might indeed benefit from a collapse of the state, which will allow Hizballah to continue to fill a growing political, economic, and social power vacuum.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Hezbollah, Regional Power, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Lebanon
238. Analysis of Arab Voting Patterns in the Elections for the 24th Knesset
- Author:
- Ziyad Abu Habla
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- The Arab sector has the electoral potential to win 25 seats in the Knesset. The low voter participation rate in the last elections (44.6%) was the result of a number of factors: the Arab representatives’ lack of influence on the government; the Arab community’s lack of confidence in parliamentary endeavor; the marginal status of Arab society; and the ideological boycotting of the elections. The poor results of the parties on the Left among Arab voters reflect their problematic relations with the Arab community. Arab voters do not view the leftist parties as a viable electoral alternative. On the other hand, only a negligible number of Jewish voters voted for the two Arab parties. The success of the United Arab List (Ra’am) and the failure of the Joint List in the Bedouin sector are the result of the latter’s inability to provide solutions to the problems of the Bedouin population, as well as the support in Bedouin society for Ra’am’s religious and conservative platform.
- Topic:
- Politics, Minorities, Elections, Ethnicity, and Voting
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
239. From a Community to a Society: Trends in Druze Voting Patterns in the Knesset Elections, 1996–2020
- Author:
- Mahmoud Shanan and Omri Eilat
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- The rate of voter turnout in the Druze community has been characterized by a continual downward trend for the past three decades. In deciding whether to vote and which party to vote for, Druze voters take individualistic considerations into account more than collective considerations which are related to the Druze community as a whole. Like other Druze communities throughout the Middle East, the Druze community in Israel is characterized by a pragmatic approach and political moderation. Therefore, the radical political views that the Arab parties try to promote are unattractive to most Druze voters. While Labor was the dominant party in the Druze community until 1999, there was no dominant party again until Blue-White in the 2019 elections. The expected collapse of Blue-White in the upcoming Knesset elections will leave a vacuum among the Druze and will lead to a further decline in their rate of voter turnout. The dispersed voting pattern of the Druze in the elections proves that politically they are not a homogenous community but rather a heterogeneous society.
- Topic:
- Minorities, Elections, Voting, and Druze
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
240. The elections for the 24th Knesset: A Turning Point in the Integration of Arabs into National Politics?
- Author:
- Elie Rekhess
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In the upcoming Knesset elections, the taboo that an Arab party should not join a government coalition is liable to be broken, in view of the crisis in Israeli politics and the balance between the Right and Center-Left. The Arab camp is showing a historic willingness for political partnership, but the Zionist Center-Left camp is hesitant to establish a coalition based on the Arab parties. Paradoxically, it is Benjamin Netanyahu who is likely to benefit from the political changes on the Arab street. Although in the past he ran a campaign to delegitimize the Arab parties, today he is embracing the Arab community against the backdrop of a split Joint Arab List. From a practical political viewpoint, Arab voters are differentiating between the nationalist level and the pragmatic day-to-day level. This is evidence of the increasing “Israelization” of the Arab community, though it is not giving up its Palestinian identity.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, Ethnicity, Voting, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
241. Boğaziçi University Demonstrations: Will Erdoğan be Able to Blow the Secular Bubble of Istanbul?
- Author:
- Hay Eytan and Cohen Yanarocak
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In February issue of Beehive, Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak analyses the students’ protests at Boğaziçi University, which took place in January 2021, reflective of the polarization in Turkish society. During the last month, Turkish social media were busy with the mass protests that took place at the Boğaziçi University campus in Istanbul following the appointment of Prof. Melih Bulu, a close associate of President Erdoğan’s, to the post of rector of Boğaziçi. These protests occurred in the shadow of the public debate on the possibility of early elections and President Erdoğan’s recent statement regarding the need for a new constitution to replace the one currently in vigor – which was adopted in 1982 by the military junta that took power two years earlier. Boğaziçi University is considered among the most important educational institutions in Turkey and it is also known as one of the last secular bubbles of Istanbul.
- Topic:
- Youth, Protests, Secularism, Polarization, and Demonstrations
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
242. Is there a Shift in Lebanese Public Opinion toward Israel?
- Author:
- Jonathan Nizar Elkhoury
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of BeeHive, Jonathan Elkhoury analyzes the ongoing discourse on Lebanese social media about normalization with Israel. The word “normalization” has become one of the most famous and used words in the Arab world over the last year. Trump’s announcement in August 2020 of a historic peace agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.) made the headlines all over the world, mainly on social media platforms. Shortly after, it was announced that Bahrain would join the U.A.E., becoming the second Gulf country to sign a normalization agreement with Israel. These peace deals, later known as the Abraham Accords, brought back the question that many were asking themselves: will there be more Arab and Muslim countries to sign peace agreements with Israel? Specifically, will Lebanon be the next country to sign a peace agreement with Israel?
- Topic:
- Public Opinion, Social Media, and Normalization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Lebanon
243. Mockery as a Tool of Palestinian Resistance on TikTok
- Author:
- Maya de Vries
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- n June issus of Beehive, Maya de Vries investigates Palestinian activism in the TikTok platform. This article is part of special issue, "Social Media in Times of Conflict", which analyses social media activism during the recent military conflict "Guardian of the Walls" and communal disturbances in May 2021. During the last year, the use of the TikTok social media platform has skyrocketed, amassing more than a billion users worldwide. TikTok is a digital platform that allows its users to upload, share and watch short videos that last between 15 seconds to one minute (depending on the video’s format). The videos are uploaded with original or recorded text or music in the background. Recently, TikTok has become a major instigating factor in recent incidents in Jerusalem and throughout Israel, which led to extensive public discourse about the application’s role in the flow of events. For example, videos containing the hashtag #freepalestine garnered 6.6 billion views on TikTok. One video, in which a young Palestinian slaps a young ultra-Orthodox man on a train in Jerusalem went viral, and, to a certain extent, triggered additional cases of Palestinian violence in then city. During the latest conflict between Israel and Gaza in May, many more videos documenting fighting between Israelis and Palestinians flooded TikTok.
- Topic:
- Political Activism, Social Media, Conflict, and TikTok
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Palestine
244. The Demonstrations on Israel’s Borders in Jordan and Lebanon during the “Guardian of the Walls” Military Operation: Grassroots Protests or Premeditated Outbursts of Rage?
- Author:
- Shay Jovany
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In June issue of Beehive, Shay Jovany compares social mobilisation in Jordan and Lebanon against the Israeli military operation “Guardian of the Walls”. This article is part of special issue, "Social Media in Times of Conflict", which analyses social media activism during the recent military conflict and communal disturbances in May 2021. Following several days of violence and civil unrest on the Temple Mount complex and in the Sheikh al-Jarah neighborhood, Hamas fired several rockets at Jerusalem on May 10. This triggered the “Guardian of the Walls” military operation, which similar to Israel’s past operations in Gaza, led to an outpouring of concern and condemnation in the international media and on social media platforms, including in the Arab world.
- Topic:
- Social Media, Conflict, Protests, Borders, and Demonstrations
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, and Jordan
245. “We Dared to Dream, And We Will Never Regret Dignity” – The Slogan of the 10th Anniversary of the Syrian Uprising
- Author:
- Ido Yahel
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of Beehive, Ido Yahel analyses the online discourse on the Syrian revolution in occasion of its 10th anniversary.
- Topic:
- Social Media, Syrian War, and Revolution
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
246. The Egyptian TikTok Girls
- Author:
- Nir Boms
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In August issue of Beehive, Nir Boms analyses the Egypt’s recent restrictive policy on social media and its impact on young bloggers. Amidst a new wave of authoritarianism and repression in Egypt, the Internet remains one of the only platforms of alternative expression, although perhaps, not for long. Aside from Covid-19, the water crisis of the Rival Nile Dam, and the ongoing economic challenge, Egyptian news also dealt with the visible arrest of two young “TikTok stars.” Haneen Hossam, aged 20, was sentenced in absentia by a Cairo court to ten years in prison while Mawada al-Adham, aged 23, who appeared before the court, was sentenced to six.
- Topic:
- Politics, Authoritarianism, Internet, and Social Media
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt
247. The Impact of Covid-19 and Conflict on Middle Eastern Economies
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Iqtisadi: Middle East Economy, Paul Rivlin assesses the economic damage caused by COVID-19 particularly in countries in the region experiencing the fallout of ongoing conflicts, and discusses several key trends that will continue to plague these hard-hit states. Ten years after the outbreak of the Arab Spring, war, low oil prices and COVID-19 are affecting the economic situation of the Middle East. Conflicts continue in Syria, Libya and Yemen, while Iraq and Lebanon suffer from the breakdown of government authority. The region appears to be less affected by COVID-19 than others, but that may be because data on infections and deaths is incomplete.
- Topic:
- Economy, Conflict, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria
248. The UAE and Israel: Developing Relations and the Challenge Ahead
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin discusses the developing economic ties between the United Arab Emirates and Israel with an emphasis on investments in the energy sector. In April 2021, the Israeli firm Delek Drilling announced plans to sell its 22 percent direct stake in the Tamar gas field to investors led by the Abu Dhabi based state-owned Mubadala Petroleum for $1.1 billion. The Tamar field has an estimated 297 billion cubic meters (bcm) of reserves. This would be by far the largest commercial deal yet between Israel and the UAE. Mubadala Petroleum is a wholly owned subsidiary of Abu Dhabi state investor, Mubadala Investment Company. Its plans to move into Israel’s upstream gas sector have the backing of the UAE and Israeli governments. In March 2021, the UAE announced the establishment of a $10 billion fund to invest in energy and other strategic sectors of the Israeli economy. According to the official statement, the UAE will invest in and with Israel in sectors including energy, manufacturing, water, space, healthcare, and agro-tech. The investment fund will support development initiatives to promote regional economic cooperation between the two countries. Funding will come from government and private sector institutions and the Delek deal is part of this framework,
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Treaties and Agreements, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United Arab Emirates
249. The Forgotten Crises in the Gulf: Electricity and Water in Iran and Iraq
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of Iqtisadi Paul Rivlin analyses the causes of shortages in electricity and water supplies in the Persian Gulf region. In Iraq and Iran, in particular, spontaneous protests have gained momentum this summer as a result of these critical problems. The Gulf is well known for its oil and gas resources, but the lack of water may be its outstanding feature. Between 2000 and 2020, the population of the Gulf states rose by almost 50 percent but the supply of fresh water from sources other than desalination fell. This edition of Iqtisadi examines recent developments in the Gulf with an emphasis on the water crisis. The oil producers in the Gulf are divided into two groups: the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman – and Iran plus Iraq. The GCC states are all monarchies while Iran and Iraq are republics. The differences between the two groups are not only constitutional and political, but also socio-economic.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Water, Economy, and Electricity
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Persian Gulf, and Gulf Nations
250. Turkey and Egypt: Time for Normalization? Not Quite Yet
- Author:
- Marwa Maziad
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of Turkeyscope, Dr. Marwa Maziad discusses the relationship between Turkey and Egypt over the long term. She analyzes the causes and effects of the divergent approaches to domestic and regional politics held presently by the respective Turkish and Egyptian presidents.
- Topic:
- Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Normalization
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Egypt
251. Turkish-Russian Relations: A Puzzle that Shakes the Middle East
- Author:
- Remi Daniel
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of Turkeyscope, Remi Daniel discusses several contemporary trends in the Russian-Turkish relationship. The dynamics of competition and cooperation between these two states affect the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Central Asia and North Africa in profound ways.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Central Asia, Turkey, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and North Africa
252. The “Four Plus One”: The Changing Power Politics of the Middle East
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna and George Meladze
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this inaugural MDC Occasional Paper, Josh Krasna and George Meladze analyze the structure of power in the Middle East during the past decade, mapping the main regional players and the interrelationships between them, and assessing the potential for future change in the politics of the region.
- Topic:
- Politics, Regional Cooperation, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America
253. Social Contracts: A Pathway for More Inclusive Societies
- Author:
- Erin McCandless
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- States and societies are in crisis around the world, as questions arise around the nature and quality of existing social contracts. COVID-19 has laid bare profound vulnerabilities within and across societies. The global pandemic is revealing deep failures in policy visions, institutional fragility, and incapacities of states to harness societal compliance where trust and a sense of national belonging is weak. At the same time, our interdependencies have never been so clear, as all countries, developed and underdeveloped alike, confront similar challenges. Crisis, however, offers opportunity to do things better, to build forward better – strengthening social contracts at all levels. How then, can social contracts, and compacting in times of crisis, offer pathways to address inequality and exclusion? This paper considers how social contracts can offer frameworks to foster new thinking and shape transformative policy to build more inclusive societies. Such frameworks should tie bold new policy visions to robust and resilient institutional arrangements that uproot harmful structural legacies with lasting effect for inclusive and peaceful societies. They must also offer means to address material conditions of inequality, and those related to recognition, identity, and dignity. The cases of South Africa, Tunisia, Colombia, and South Korea reveal that, while not easy nor predictable, such pathways exist. Key findings in this briefing include: Inequality and exclusion stem from policy choices and are fueled by corruption; they undermine foundations of inclusive and resilient national social contracts, e.g. trust in government and societal willingness to consent to difficult policy choices; Participation in formal electoral processes is declining while protest is rising, indicating a lack of faith in existing politics and institutional mechanisms for resolving conflict and fostering consensual politics; and Civil society movements in and across countries are advancing more inclusive social contracts that tackle vulnerability and risk through a variety of innovative means that deserve greater support.
- Topic:
- Peace, Justice, Social Contract, COVID-19, and Inclusion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, East Asia, South Africa, and Latin America
254. Recycling Policies from the Bottom Up: Waste Work in Lebanon
- Author:
- Elizabeth Saleh
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Discussions on waste policy in Lebanon tend to focus on the country’s corrupt practices and the health and environmental impact of bad waste management. This paper examines an overlooked aspect: the story of waste pickers — many of whom are economic or forced migrants — who are essential to Lebanon’s garbage management. Through an ethnographic study of a group of underage waste pickers, it argues that it is time for policy debates on garbage in Lebanon to integrate the perspective of waste workers.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Labor Issues, Recycling, and Garbage
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
255. Iraq’s New Electoral Law: Old Powers Adapting to Change
- Author:
- Omar Al-Jaffal
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- In December 2019, the Iraqi parliament approved a new electoral law following demonstrations calling for fundamental political change. However, it took over 11 months for the president to ratify it as Iraq’s political parties fought over the shape of electoral districts. This article examines the disputes that surrounded the adoption of the law and the compromises that led to diluting its potential for reform. It concludes that while the new law represents a small step in the right direction, it ultimately is insufficient to respond to the aspirations of protestors looking for an overhaul of their political representation.
- Topic:
- Reform, Elections, Democracy, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
256. COVID-19 Vaccination in the Time of Austerity: How and for Whom?
- Author:
- Joelle M. Abi-Rached and Pascale Salameh
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- As countries begin to roll out vaccination for COVID-19, the Lebanese caretaker government has yet to provide details about its vaccination strategy, raising concerns about its ability to provide vaccines due to the country’s economic and governance crisis. This paper, written by public health professionals, raises a number of questions about the vaccination strategy that the government should address and calls for an open, inclusive, and transparent process to placate the worries of citizens given the privatization and politicization of the country’s health sector.
- Topic:
- Public Health, Vaccine, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
257. Growing Azerbaijani–Central Asian Ties Likely to Trigger Conflicts With Russia and Iran
- Author:
- Paul A. Goble
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Azerbaijan’s victory in the Second Karabakh War (September 29–November 9) has had a transformative effect on the country. It not only changed the attitudes of its population, whose members now feel themselves to be heroes rather than victims (see EDM, January 21), but also bolstered the diplomatic weight and possibilities of the Azerbaijani government in its dealings with other regional states. In prosecuting a triumphant war against Yerevan, Baku demonstrated its own ability to act. But just as importantly, Azerbaijan has shown to peoples and governments in the Caucasus and Central Asia that it is a force to be reckoned with, in part thanks to its growing links with Turkey. Moreover, that alliance makes possible an appealing path to the outside world for all who join it. That reality is causing countries east of the Caspian to look westward to and through Azerbaijan in their economic planning and political calculations. At the same time, however, these developments are generating concerns in Moscow and Tehran, which oppose east-west trade routes that bypass their countries’ territories and instead favor north-south corridors linking Russia and Iran together. As a result, Azerbaijan’s recent successes in expanding links with Central Asia set the stage for new conflicts between Azerbaijan and its Turkic partners, on the one hand, and Russia and Iran, which have far more significant naval assets in the Caspian, on the other (see EDM, November 27, 2018 and February 20, 2020; Casp-geo.ru, December 24, 2019; Chinalogist.ru, November 21, 2019).
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iran, Central Asia, Middle East, and Azerbaijan
258. Iran Seeks to Reroute North-South Transport Corridor to Armenia, Away From Azerbaijan
- Author:
- Rahim Rahimov
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Iran emerged as a potential loser from the Russia-brokered trilateral truce accords that ended last autumn’s 44-day Second Karabakh War between Armenia and Azerbaijan (see EDM January 25). Therefore, Tehran is seeking ways to reposition itself into the new situation in line with its interests. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif’s five-country regional tour of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Russia and Turkey, between January 25 and 28, clearly carried that mission (Tasnim News Agency, January 30). In particular, a top agenda item during this series of foreign visits was the proposal to reactivate a Soviet-era railway connecting Iran and Armenia via Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave, which is wedged between them and Turkey (Twitter.com/JZarif, January 26).
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Infrastructure, and Transportation
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Armenia, and Azerbaijan
259. Iranian Public Opinion at the Start of the Biden Administration: Report
- Author:
- Nancy Gallagher, Clay Ramsay, and Ebrahim Mohseni
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- This report covers findings from two surveys fielded in September and early October 2020 and late January through early February 2021 to assess how Iranians were faring as the covid-19 pandemic intensified the challenges their country was already facing, what they thought about the parliamentary election in Iran and the presidential election in the United States, and how the inauguration of Joe Biden impacted their attitudes towards nuclear diplomacy and regional security. Iran was one of the earliest countries to be hard-hit by the novel coronavirus, with the country’s first cases confirmed on February 13, 2020, two days before the parliamentary election, senior officials among those soon infected, and high death rates reported. Western reporting depicted widespread government incompetence and cover-ups exacerbating the pandemic’s toll. As in other countries, Iranian officials struggled to decide whether to close schools, curtail economic activities, and restrict religious observances in hopes of slowing the virus’ spread, but cases and deaths remained high through 2020. When we fielded the first survey wave, the daily number of new confirmed covid-19 cases in Iran was starting to climb sharply again after having been relatively flat since May. Some world leaders, including the U.N. Secretary General, called for an easing of sanctions on Iran as part of global efforts to fight the pandemic. The United States, which had withdrawn from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018, maintained that medicine, personal protective equipment, and other humanitarian supplies were exempt from the steadily increasing sanctions applied as part of its “maximum pressure” campaign. But, the United States’ designation in September 2019 of the Central Bank of Iran as a terrorist organization made most foreign suppliers of humanitarian goods reluctant to sell to Iran. A decision in October 2020 to also designate the few Iranian banks that were not previously subject to secondary sanctions further impeded humanitarian trade, caused another sharp drop in the value of Iran’s currency, and had other negative economic effects. The Trump administration’s stated objective was to keep imposing more sanctions until Iran acquiesced to a long list of U.S. demands articulated by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The original twelve points include the types of restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program that the government rejected during previous negotiations and that the Iranian public has consistently opposed. It also included stopping development of nuclear-capable missiles and ending support for various groups throughout the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Public Opinion, and International Community
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
260. Lessons Learned from the COVID-19 Pandemic: Physician Safety and Coverage in Lebanon
- Author:
- Nadim El Jamal, Taghrid Hajjali, and Elie Al-Chaer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Similar to other countries, Lebanon experienced the challenges that the COVID-19 pandemic imposed on its healthcare system. Physicians, among other healthcare workers, felt the large toll of the pandemic. The growing number of physicians infected with the coronavirus has uncovered gaps in the policies and laws meant to protect and ensure physician safety. These include gaps in physician coverage for healthcare, disability, and death, in addition to particular vulnerabilities of trainee physicians, along with the absence of specific laws, strategies, and agencies to ensure the safety of the healthcare work environment. This paper highlights these gaps and proposes solutions to address them.
- Topic:
- Security, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
261. Without Hassan Abbas, the World Is a Poorer Place
- Author:
- Bassma Kodmani
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- It is on purpose that I sidestep my emotions when writing this. I do so in an effort to make this easier for myself and to avoid what follows coming across as a fleeting remembrance or some tiresome duty where I am compelled to write about Hassan Abbas.
- Topic:
- Leadership, Academia, Experts, and Scholarships
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
262. The Environmental Impact of Syria’s Conflict: A Preliminary Survey of Issues
- Author:
- Roba Gaafar
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- The Syrian conflict has had devastating human and economic consequences, but it also greatly damaged the environment in the country. This paper provides a preliminary survey of a set of environmental challenges that impose significant health, social and economic costs, including air pollution, deforestation, soil and vegetation degradation, and water depletion, and suggests green solutions for post-conflict relief and reconstruction.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Health, Conflict, Green Technology, and Pollution
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
263. After the Fall: Lebanon’s Path towards Monetary Stabilization
- Author:
- Jean Tawile
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Lebanon is suffering the worst economic crisis in its history, caused by an economic model that produced a rentier economy feeding off a corruption-ridden state and preventing any economic growth and social justice. This model is not redeemable. This paper argues that stabilizing the currency is a first step to getting Lebanon’s economy back on the right track and explores possible pathways for doing so.
- Topic:
- Economics, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, Strategic Stability, and Economic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
264. Partial Normalization: Morocco’s Balancing Act
- Author:
- Yasmina Abouzzohour
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Following the UAE, and Bahrain, and one month before Sudan, Morocco became the third country in the MENA region to normalize ties with Israel in 2020. In exchange for resuming ties with Tel Aviv, Rabat benefited from important security and financial deals with the United States and ensured the recognition of the kingdom’s sovereignty over Western Sahara. This paper explores the domestic, regional, and international politics that determined the kingdom’s approach and assesses how the kingdom has navigated competing pressures.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Morocco
265. Sudan’s Normalization with Israel: In Whose Interests?
- Author:
- Magdi El-Gizouli
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- In January 2021, Sudan joined the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco and normalized its relations with Israel. This paper explores the record of largely back-door dealings between Khartoum and Tel Aviv, investigates the motives, weighs the bargains, and interrogates the ideological mystifications that cloud the policy choices of Sudan’s decision-makers.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Peace, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, Middle East, and Israel
266. How can activists best advance environmental reforms in MENA?
- Author:
- Rory Quick
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Decarbonising the current energy system does not secure a sustainable future if challenges beyond carbon emission are ignored and the economic model which continues to exacerbate the challenges we face is not rectified. Genuine environmental reform requires an intersectional approach, one which does not just patch over problems but instigates reform. The socio-political and environmental crises we face are symptoms of the same problem and must be treated as such. In order to reach a sustainable future, policies should resolve current issues without creating or exacerbating existing challenges. If there is a reason for social movements to exist, it is to challenge dominant values as flexible and changeable and to offer alternative ways to live. Across the MENA region, there are growing calls - from experts and activists - for reform in the region to simultaneously deal with wider socio-political issues whilst decarbonizing energy systems. In the MENA region, states are preoccupied with developing renewable energy (RE) at large scale. Examples include Morocco’s Ouarzazate Noor Solar Plant and Dubai’s Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park. This is an extension of the existing energy model. Megaprojects are political as much as economic projects. They support exclusionary political regimes and enable states to strengthen existing socio-political systems, and thus further reduce the political autonomy of the individual. Energy megaprojects are projections of state centralization, as they require no input from the localities in which they are placed. They therefore actively reduce political freedom. An alternative model - the decentralised RE model - allows for ownership and operation of RE to remain in the communities where it operates. Solar and wind technology is scalable, whereas previous technology was not. This allows for the creation of an energy system that is not only sustainable but also democratically owned and designed, and socially just. A decentralised system, whereby individuals have a direct say in how their energy systems operate, is vital in ensuring energy justice is achieved alongside climate justice.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Political Activism, Reform, and Green Technology
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA
267. Mental Health Reforms in Lebanon During the Multifaceted Crisis
- Author:
- Sara Catherine Mourani and Marie-Christine Ghreichi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Multiple disasters over the past two years have greatly harmed the mental health of the Lebanese population. Despite a long history with political turmoil, discussing mental health in Lebanon remains culturally taboo. Responses to mental health remain under-supported and challenges surrounding this sector will be critical in Lebanon’s transition out of the crisis. This paper seeks to investigate the current state of the mental health system in Lebanon and provides policy recommendations to improve its adaptability in responding to the multifaceted crisis the country is currently experiencing.
- Topic:
- Health, Reform, Mental Health, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
268. Data with borders for a borderless virus: Insights and recommendations from the case of Lebanon
- Author:
- Ghinwa El Hayek, Sirine Anouti, Ghina R. Mumtaz, and Lilian A. Ghandour
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Timely access to complete and accurate data proved to be one of the major lessons learned for an evidence-informed national public health response. In Lebanon, COVID-19 data reporting was mired with issues such as the fragmentation of publicly available data across many official reporting sources. This paper addresses the issue of data collection and sharing and provides recommendations for ways forward.
- Topic:
- Public Health, Pandemic, Data, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
269. The Mediterranean Region: A Hotspot of Inequalities in the Aftermath of COVID-19
- Author:
- Farah Al Shami
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic, which broke out in China in late 2019, reached the Mediterranean region by late winter 2020. While the impact of this crisis has been notorious on a global scale, it was remarkably more pronounced in the Mediterranean region as a result of economic fragility, exposure and transmissibility, and more importantly the quality of state and non-state responses which had a multidimensional multiplier effect on wealth distribution, access to health and education as well as other essential services, regional disparities and gender inequality, among others. Ever since its outbreak, COVID-19 has significantly exacerbated existing inequalities and has created new ones. It has also exacerbated vulnerabilities and created new forms of vulnerability, thus increasing the gaps on various levels between different social groups. These consequences were also more concentrated in the Mediterranean region as compared to the rest of the world, as the region had already been witnessing rising trends of inequality in the last decade, and especially before the pandemic hit, due to political instability, economic decay and inefficient public policies. While this reality has been experienced by both the northern and southern sides of the Mediterranean, it has been more intense in the latter. However, this is not to deny that constantly increasing inequalities in recent history has made both poles of the Basin much more susceptible to an enigmatic and acute shock such as COVID-19. The impact of COVID-19 on multifaceted inequality in the Mediterranean is neither consistent nor linear. The region has witnessed declines in several forms of inequality and surges in several others. Yet, the overall impact in terms of the number and magnitude of increased inequalities versus reduced ones is negative, making the Mediterranean a hotspot of inequality in the aftermath of the sanitary crisis. Moreover, amplified inequalities have manifested in the Mediterranean Basin in the form of inter-country inequalities and intra-country inequalities – the former being mostly part driven by inter-sectoral imbalances. Inter-country inequalities have likely further cemented the north-south divide in the Basin. This paper examines the different forms and faces of inequality in the region by trying to conceptualize the situations of different countries, despite their dissimilar and divergent contexts. It proves that COVID-19 has massively increased multidimensional inequality through various channels and at a relatively higher rate with respect to other regions. The paper also demonstrates that the Mediterranean is the microcosm of the north-south cleavage, as it is the closest place where the South meets the North, which makes it a natural starting point for dialogue concerning the north-south dichotomy and inequalities. As such, this paper highlights the need for tangible cooperation across borders, between sectors, and among citizens and their representatives, both within the region – between the North and the South – and with other regions, to advance reforms that address the factors of inequity and inequality in an already fragile and shaky regional context.
- Topic:
- Inequality, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean
270. The Palestinians and Arab normalization of Greater Israel
- Author:
- Mouin Rabbani
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the dynamics of the Palestinian response to the recent wave of normalization deals between Israel and certain Arab states. It analyzes the motivations that contributed to this wave of normalization, examines the state of Palestinian institutions, and concludes with options for a path forward.
- Topic:
- Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Institutions, Peace, and Normalization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
271. Between Geopolitics and Geoeconomics: The Growing Role of Gulf States in the Eastern Mediterranean
- Author:
- Adel Abdel Ghafar
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The role played by countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in the Eastern Mediterranean is becoming increasingly important. This calls for an assessment of their evolving relationship with countries in the region, as well as their involvement in the Libyan conflict. Increased involvement by Gulf actors may inflame existing regional rivalries and geopolitical tensions. The interests of GCC countries in the Eastern Mediterranean are first analysed in the broader context of regional rivalries. Special attention is then devoted to Egypt, Libya, Lebanon, Greece and Cyprus, while considering the role of other key regional actors such as Turkey and Israel. Recommendations on why and how the new US administration should intervene to decrease regional tensions are provided. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI-Eni Strategic Partnership, January 2021.
- Topic:
- Economics, Geopolitics, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Libya, Lebanon, Egypt, Cyprus, Mediterranean, and Gulf Nations
272. From Tectonic Shifts to Winds of Change in North Africa and the Middle East: Europe’s Role
- Author:
- Nathalie Tocci, Riccardo Alcaro, Francesca Caruso, Silvia Colombo, Dario Cristiani, Andrea Dessì, Flavio Fusco, and Daniela Huber
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Winds of change are blowing in North Africa and the Middle East. They originate from Washington, where the new Biden administration is expected to abandon its predecessor’s zero-sum, erratic approach and take steps towards supporting regional balances and cooperation. Effects are visible especially in the Gulf, with the US pondering its options to re-activate nuclear diplomacy with Iran and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates grudgingly agreeing to put their feud with Qatar on ice. One way or another, these winds of change are working their way through the Levant, the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya. Admittedly, they are still feeble and can easily fade out like a morning breeze. Were that to happen, Europeans would be amongst the most affected – aside, of course, from regional populations themselves. It is now high time for the EU and its member states to leave the backseat they have (un)comfortably been sitting in for years, seize the opportunity of a cooperative US administration and work to play a more proactive role in North Africa and the Middle East commensurate with their considerable financial, diplomatic and military resources.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, North Africa, United States of America, Mediterranean, and Gulf Nations
273. Sectarianism and Sectarianisation in Iraq: Ambassadorial Appointments as an Exemplar
- Author:
- Dlawer Ala'Aldeen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Sectarianisation of Iraq’s governance has already become a powerful driver of conflict. Left unaddressed, it can become irreversible. Here, ambassadorial appointments are used to underline the depth of sectarian divisions within the legislative and executive institutions, and offer ways forward.
- Topic:
- Governance, Sectarianism, Leadership, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
274. Russia or the West – Which Should Jerusalem Choose?
- Author:
- Daniel Rakov
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The Israeli government has not publicly expressed a position regarding the gathering of Russian forces on the Ukrainian border. Still, a renewed war between Russia and Ukraine could make it challenging to choose between its commitment to its Western allies and its important relationship with Russia.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Israel
275. Hamas takeover of Gaza killed the two-state solution
- Author:
- Hillel Frisch
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The American pressure against the Atarot housing project north of Jerusalem was likely meant to maintain the possibility of a two-state solution.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and State Building
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
276. Is it time for Biden to demonstrate force with Iran?
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The withdrawal of American forces from the Middle East may have strategic merits. The rationale for a contracted global military seems to match what American strategists have termed “offshore balancing,” which means that the U.S. holds fewer overseas bases but maintains its military capability to intervene in distant regions when necessary.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Strategic Interests, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
277. Iran talks are likely going nowhere
- Author:
- Alexander Grinberg
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Iran uses uranium enrichment as leverage on the EU and US to get concessions.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Conflict, Uranium, and Nuclear Energy
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
278. The time is ripe for an Israeli-Moroccan honeymoon, though it might not last forever
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- If Israel fails to halt Iran’s nuclear progress, the pro-Israel trend in the region will disappear.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Morocco
279. Israel, the US, and the Iranian Nuclear project – back to basics
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- It is not in America’s interest for Israel to be perceived as an obedient lap dog. On the contrary, keeping Israel’s options open, or even enhancing them, will ultimately prove to be of value to the US.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Alliance, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
280. Palestinian Violence, Not Settler Violence is the Problem
- Author:
- Hillel Frisch
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- In conjunction with radical Arab MKs, Leftist Israeli politicians focus on settler violence when the real issue is Palestinian violence organized from the apex of the PA down to paid local instigators. Palestinian violence is twenty times greater than what settlers commit and is far more dangerous and lethal.
- Topic:
- Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Violence, Settler Colonialism, and Settlements
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
281. The Nuclear Talks in Vienna: Biden’s Legacy at Stake
- Author:
- Eytan Gilboa
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- From Tehran’s perspective, the goals are lifting the sanctions and securing immunity from military attacks.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
282. Israel and the New ‘Old Europe’
- Author:
- Emmanuel Navon
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The new German government and the upcoming elections in France create challenges and opportunities for Israel’s foreign policy, which must adapt to Europe’s evolving political map.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Governance, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Israel
283. Military Diplomacy as a National Security Asset: Israel’s Widening Array of Joint Exercises
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The Blue Flag 2021 air force exercise was the largest and most significant since the exercise series began in 2013.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Alliance, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
284. Why is Iran returning to the negotiating table?
- Author:
- Yaakov Amidror
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The American hope for the resumption of the talks, and the talks themselves, give the Iranians more freedom of action. They restrict US activity in response to mounting provocations.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
285. Realpolitik Should Guide Israeli-Russian Relations
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- When Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett this week meets Russian President Putin for the first time, Bennett must use a realpolitik language.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Governance, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Israel
286. Iran’s Intimidation of Azerbaijan Must Be Answered
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The way Tehran uses military intimidation, as well as terror by proxy and other means of threatening regional players, must become a factor in the formulation of Western policy towards Iran in this decisive period.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Azerbaijan
287. Securing the Future of the Israel-US Special Relationship
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- With the help of American Jewry, a sturdy foundation of support for Israel-US ties needs to be rebuilt based upon traditional bipartisan commitment. This will enable Israel to engage effectively with the Biden Administration and Congress on the Iranian challenge.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Polarization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
288. Israel Must Actively Oppose US Return to the JCPOA
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar and Omer Dostri
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Even if Israel’s ability to influence US decision-making is limited, it is a serious mistake to downplay Israel’s opposition to the dangerous nuclear accord.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
289. The Egypt-Israel Common Strategic Agenda
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Egyptian and Israeli interests converge in Gaza, Sinai, Syria, and Libya, and regarding Turkey and other regional matters
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt
290. What does the Deraa surrender mean for Iran and Russia in Syria?
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- In the southwest, the outside powers of relevance are Iran and Russia. The arrangement in place from July 2018 until now was the product of an uneasy standoff between them.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, Peace, and Ceasefire
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Syria
291. The Collapse of Lebanon: Scenarios for the Future
- Author:
- Aiman Mansour
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The dour forecasts regarding Lebanon’s future are based on fundamental facts that cannot be amended: A corrupt and rotten government and the dominance of Hezbollah. Under these circumstances, a possible alternative to current Israeli policy may be to reinforce the role of Syrian patronage, which has been undermined since 2005.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Military Strategy, Governance, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
292. Bennett’s Visit to Washington
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Bennett’s mission is to emphasize the American interest in the region and present Israel’s capacity to help in attaining it.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Leadership, Alliance, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
293. From Saigon to Kabul: Losing the Battle, Winning the War
- Author:
- Emmanuel Navon
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- America’s decision to leave Afghanistan makes sense only if the plan is to cut losses in an unwinnable war and redirect resources and energies toward a winnable strategy against Iran.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Military Intervention, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
294. Fighting antisemitism should not be Israel’s primary concern
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Fighting with Poland over Holocaust restitution is not in Israel’s national interest.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Holocaust, Conflict, Memory, and Reparations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Poland
295. The Hong Kong National Security Law and its Implications for Middle Powers
- Author:
- Tuvia Gering
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- In May 2021, an Israeli company became the first documented case of China imposing free expression limitations on a foreign business under the 2020 Hong Kong National Security Law. Democracies must ensure that their citizens are not prosecuted for exercising their basic rights.
- Topic:
- Security, Democracy, Freedom of Expression, and Freedom
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Israel, and Asia
296. What’s Next, After the Withdrawal from Afghanistan?
- Author:
- Yaakov Amidror
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The Middle East is doomed to remain difficult, brutal, violent, repressive, and culturally Islamist. Regional powers, including Israel, must come together, to guarantee stability.
- Topic:
- Security, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Political stability, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
297. The Implications of the Fall of Kabul
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The region, and Israel, need the ASEAN model of cooperation.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
298. The Road to Natanz Runs Through Beirut
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- One of the issues that must be dealt with before the Iranian nuclear program is removing the threat of Hezbollah missiles.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Israel
299. Yemen Offers Clues as to US Regional Strategy and the Abilities of Anti-Iran Forces
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The lack of a coherent Western strategy for the containment and rollback of Iran in the Middle East in worrying.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Alliance, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Yemen, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
300. National Security Policy Recommendations for Israel’s 36th Government
- Author:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Eleven policy prescriptions for Israel’s new government, reflecting the insights of JISS fellows who jointly surveyed the challenges Israel’s leaders are facing and crafted these diplomatic and defense policy emphases.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel