Content Type: Working Paper / Political Geography: Middle East / Publication Year: and within 10 Years / Topic: Terrorism

1. Global Terrorism Index 2023

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: The GTI report is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) using data from TerrorismTracker and other sources. TerrorismTracker provides event records on terrorist attacks since 1 January 2007. The dataset contains almost 66,000 terrorist incidents for the period 2007 to 2022. In 2022, deaths from terrorism fell by nine per cent to 6,701 deaths and is now 38 per cent lower than at its peak in 2015. The fall in deaths was mirrored by a reduction in the number of incidents, with attacks declining by almost 28 per cent from 5,463 in 2021 to 3,955 in 2022. However, if Afghanistan was removed from the index, terrorism deaths would have increased by four per cent. Afghanistan remained the country most impacted by terrorism for the fourth consecutive year, despite attacks and deaths falling by 75 per cent and 58 per cent respectively. The GTI does not include acts of state repression and violence by state actors and, as such, acts committed by the Taliban are no longer included in the scope of the report since they took control of the government.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Finance, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and Global Focus

2. Taliban Victory Serves as a Model for Palestinian Terror Groups

Author:: Marta Furlan
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: World powers and Israel should refuse to recognize the Taliban regime. This would give hope to Middle Eastern terrorist groups like Hamas that they could also gain recognition under the right conditions. Upon returning to government, the Taliban have been implementing a system of civilian administration based on their Islamist ideological background. The consequences for women and minorities have been horrifying. The same can be said about Afghanistan’s economy, which can no longer provide for its starving population. The Taliban began house searches around Kabul recently, drawing criticism from Western diplomats about rights abuses. The Taliban claim that the operations are to find “kidnappers, professional thieves and crime groups,” however, seven residents told Reuters that the searches were spreading fear and appeared indiscriminate. In terms of security, the Afghan-Pakistani border and the Afghan-Iranian border have traditionally been porous, with illicit goods, illegal immigrants, and terrorists linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State-Khorasan Province moving undetected from one country to another. Similarly, the borders shared by Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan with Afghanistan remain characterized by volatility, which exposes those countries to the risk of exportation of terrorism from Afghanistan. Though Afghanistan’s neighbors have engaged in efforts to increase border security by erecting fences, conducting anti-terrorism exercises in the border areas, and relocating troops to border areas, the potential security threats originating from Afghanistan remain a source of great concern for the region and beyond. Nevertheless, for Islamists across the border in Pakistan and elsewhere in the Muslim world, the Taliban’s victory – and ability to hold onto power in Afghanistan – serves as a model they seek to follow. This should cause worry for Israel due to the encouragement this provides to radical Islamist armed groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) that a return to the armed struggle is the only path to defeat Israel.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Taliban, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

3. US Policy Towards the Yemeni Conflict Must Change

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Re-designating the Houthi movement as a terrorist organization after the drone attack on the UAE is imperative. This, along with overt support for the UAE, would deliver a sharp message and likely have a beneficial effect on Iranian conduct in Vienna.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Humanitarian Intervention, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Yemen, North America, and United States of America

4. Europol-Israel Police Operational Agreement: Enhanced cooperation with EU in combatting crime and terrorism

Author:: Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: The Israeli Police and Europol, the European Union’s police agency, have been conducting negotiations over an operational agreement for several years. In September there was signing of end of negotiations, but in December the Council of the European Union decided to re-open the talks. In a global world where crime and terrorism cross borders, countries need to strengthen cooperation among themselves. Such inter-police cooperation takes on a unique form in the EU. The operational agreement between Israel’s Police and Europol can have considerable importance in contributing to the parties’ ability to deal with terror and crime. This paper will review Europol, its cooperation with Israel’s police and other enforcement agencies, including the negotiated agreement, the motivations for upgrading relations with Israel and the benefits and challenges of doing so.
Topic:: Crime, International Cooperation, Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Police, and Europol
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

5. The Unavoidable Campaign to Destroy the Jenin Terrorist Hub

Author:: Kobi Michael and Ori Wertman
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Since the beginning of the current wave of terror, the IDF has focused its efforts specifically on the old-new terror capital of Jenin, which, while having had some success in thwarting attacks, has not eradicated the extensive terrorist system in the city and has contributed to the erosion of Israeli deterrence. Is it time to reconsider the course?
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

6. Between ISIS and Arab Citizens of Israel

Author:: Yoram Schweitzer, Ephraim Lavie, and Meir Elran
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Although the three Israeli citizens who committed the terrorist attacks in Beersheba and Hadera were identified with ISIS, the organization has not gained a foothold within Israel’s Arab society. In general, the Arab sector objects to the ISIS ideology and violent measures. Israel must try to preserve this norm, building on the public denunciation of terror by Arab leaders and the further social and economic integration of the Arab society in the state
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, ISIS, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

7. A Multi-Front Terror Campaign: How Should Israel Respond?

Author:: Kobi Michael and Udi Dekel
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: There is a tendency to see the recent terror attacks in Israel as a new wave of terror, destined, like any wave, to ebb following its limited duration. Alternatively, recent events might challenge this paradigm and reflect a multi-theater campaign led by Hamas, in cooperation with Islamic Jihad and with Iranian support. How should Israel act in face of the current situation?
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

8. With Ramadan Approaching, the Fear of Escalation

Author:: Yohanan Tzoreff
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The recent terrorist attacks are a tangible illustration of the growing concern in the security establishment and among the public of possible escalation approaching and during Ramadan. Israel has a few possible ways to act to lower the flames, including political and security moves that can be taken by virtue of improved ties with states in the region
Topic:: Religion, Terrorism, ISIS, Conflict, and Escalation
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

9. What is Different in this Wave of Violence and What Should be Done About It?

Author:: Hillel Frisch
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: A static “dumb” security fence can hardly be effective against young and resourceful workers, many of whom work in construction and are experts in dismantling barriers and desperately want to work within the green line.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

10. Increased and Targetted Force Reduced Violence in the Last Terror Wave

Author:: Hillel Frisch
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israeli forces, again, consistently entered these towns and their environs almost daily to make arrests, which led to a 90% decrease in terrorism.
Topic:: Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Conflict, and Violence
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

11. Iran’s Intimidation of Azerbaijan Must Be Answered

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The way Tehran uses military intimidation, as well as terror by proxy and other means of threatening regional players, must become a factor in the formulation of Western policy towards Iran in this decisive period.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Azerbaijan

12. There is No Clear-Cut Solution for Gaza

Author:: Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: There are plenty of nice plans for Gaza, but none that will change the core truth: Hamas will continue to seek Israel’s destruction, and Israel will continue to defend itself.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

13. The ICC’s folly also hurts the Palestinians

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: If the International Criminal Court of Justice conducted a fair investigation into the ongoing conflict, it would see that Hamas terrorists are committing double war crimes daily.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Terrorism, Conflict, and International Criminal Court (ICC)
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

14. A Deterring Blow is Needed

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: IDF strikes on Gaza’s terrorists should be intense and aimed at causing severe damage to the intermediate level of command, infrastructure and weapons.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

15. State Violence and Public Monitoring – Britain’s use of torture in Mandatory Palestine

Author:: James Hopkins
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, St. Andrews University, Scotland
Abstract:: In his influential work Torture and Democracy, Darius Rejali argues that when democracies use torture, they tend to resort to the use of stealthy torture techniques in order to avoid detection. Using primary archival sources, this paper examines Rejali’s hypothesis by looking at torture in the British Mandate in Palestine up to 1945. First, looking specifically at torture it will show that the case study fits the hypothesis, as torture was generally stealthy, but also systemic and at times officially sanctioned. It locates the reason for the use of torture in the failure of intelligence gathering, before examining the pressures public monitoring put on the British. The historical literature tends to emphasise the concerns British authorities had over propaganda in both the foreign and local press: however, this paper also highlights the threat of pan-Arabic and Muslim agitation across the Middle East and India. After noting that torture is merely one form of violence in the state’s repertoire, and therefore cannot be fully understood in isolation, the paper aims to put the use of torture in its wider context. In Palestine, torture took place alongside a brutal counterinsurgency campaign, in which British servicemen systemically carried out casual brutality against the local population, which, in contrast to the use of torture, was highly visible and unconcerned with public monitoring. It is argued that the reasons for this casual brutality were the poor conditions of service, the make- up of the force, and the racism endemic in it. Despite this seeming contradiction of the monitoring hypothesis, the paper concludes by arguing that the hypothesis can explain the disparity between stealthy torture and visible casual brutality. In doing so, it draws attention to the importance of perception in public monitoring as well as the shifts in the factors affecting the Mandate.
Topic:: Intelligence, Terrorism, Torture, State Violence, and Surveillance
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Middle East, and Palestine

16. The Beirut Disaster: A Chance for a Systemic Change in Lebanon?

Author:: Aiman Mansour and Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The current political situation in Lebanon is very problematic. Hizbullah enjoys full freedom of action in a country which long ago became dysfunctional. Hence the importance of lending support to the French effort to bring about systemic change in the Lebanese confessional order. Further descent into chaos and/or growing intervention by Turkey would be even more dangerous for Israel.
Topic:: Security, Politics, Terrorism, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

17. Lebanon’s economic ship is sinking, taking Hezbollah with it

Author:: Udi Levi
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The Trump administration has realized that in order to wound Hezbollah on a profound level the organization must be disjoined from the Lebanese economy, with an emphasis on the country’s banking system.
Topic:: Economics, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

18. Is Iran Gaining a Foothold in the West Bank?

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: A moribund terrorist group, the PFLP, is experiencing a revival and launching terror attacks, with help from Iran.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

19. ISIS and Coronavirus: Will Terrorists Exploit COVID-19?

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The ‘ghost caliphate’ – Sunni Arab insurgency – is likely to persist in the remote, poor and sparsely governed areas of Syria and Iraq.
Topic:: Terrorism, ISIS, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East

20. Qatari Cash for Hamas Will Backfire on Israel

Author:: Udi Levi
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: What Happens When Hezbollah Seeks a Similar Arrangement of Quiet for Cash?
Topic:: Economics, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Hezbollah, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Qatar

21. How Iran funds Palestinian Islamic Jihad

Author:: Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: PIJ is an important part of the Iranian strategy for fighting Israel. The regime in Tehran makes use of charities and other civilian organizations, such as money changers, to transfer funds to its allies in Gaza.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, and State Sponsored Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

22. Iran, Hezbollah stir chaos in Syria’s southwest

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Behind Enemy Lines: Iran, Hezbollah and ongoing, armed resistance to Syria’s regime merge to create constant chaos.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Syria

23. The Reemergence of Gray-Zone Warfare in Modern Conflicts

Author:: Omer Dostri
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel’s Struggle against Hamas’s Indirect Approach
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Gray Zone
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

24. Security, Stability, and Counter-Terrorism in Idlib: A Turkish Perspective

Author:: Serhat Erkmen
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: In Idlib, armed groups can be categorized under three conglomerates: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Syrian National Army (SNA), and radicals led by Hurras al-Deen (HaD). Among these three anti-government groups, HTS is the strongest one. Though the SNA’s Idlib branch has more manpower than other groups, HTS has superiority in terms of discipline, organisation and weaponry.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Governance, Counter-terrorism, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

25. Daesh: The archetype of hybrid terrorist organizations

Author:: Triandafyllos Karatrantos
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The rise and evolution of Daesh (al-Dawlah al-Islamīyah fī l-ʻIrāq wa-sh-Shām) marked a new and very interesting debate about the labeling of violent groups that are not traditional terrorist organizations and they are also acting with different roles and using alternate tactics and modus operandi, such as insurgency, within civil and regional conflicts. Furthermore, the establishment of the so called “Caliphate” includes a new parameter in the scientific debate, the quasi state dimension. Daesh is a modern archetype of this vivid scientific debate, but the difficulties in labeling, especially in cases were terrorist groups are taking part in civil conflicts, is not new. Labeling is not only a matter of “name and blame”, is important in order to design an effective and holistic counter terrorism strategy. The aim of this chapter is to discuss the different approaches about labeling nontraditional terrorist groups and to present the terrorist activity of Daesh.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Non State Actors, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: Europe and Middle East

26. The Hashd Al-Shaabi: From heroes to … what exactly?

Author:: Emma Hesselink
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: Now that IS has been defeated, at least territorially, governments, donors and the international community are investing in Iraq’s state building programmes both at national and local levels. However, Nineveh governorate, which suffered greatest damage and requires greatest attention, has been the scene of a highly divided security landscape since its liberation from IS. The chronic divisions between different actors such as Peshmerga and Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) are only worsened by the presence of the Hashd al-Shaabi and other non-state actors in the Disputed Territories. This brief provides an analysis of the risks posed by Hashd in Nineveh and offers recommendations into regaining a grip on the situation.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Islamic State, and State Building
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Baghdad

27. Enhancing chemical security in Kurdistan Region

Author:: Dlawer Ala'Aldeen and Goran Zangana
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: Chemicals are widely used in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region (KRI) for various civilian purposes. Terrorist organizations have demonstrated their intention, know-how and capacity to convert chemicals of civilian use to chemical weapons. Without an urgent and comprehensive policy response, the KRI can face significant breaches in chemical security with immeasurable risks to the population and the environment. This report follows a special MERI workshop on chemical security, where major challenges were identified and a number of policy recommendation made.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, and Chemical Weapons
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan

28. Turkey and China Tie Themselves in Knots Over Syria and Xinjiang

Author:: James M Dorsey
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: Turkey expects Chinese support for its incursion into Syria against the Kurds, but in return, China expects Turkey to turn a blind eye to its persecution of Turkic Muslims in Xinjiang. Turkey’s refusal to fully recognize Kurdish rights is thus intertwined with China’s brutal crackdown in its troubled northwestern province. Both parties justify their actions as efforts in the fight against terrorism.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, Ethnic Cleansing, Conflict, Syrian War, and Kurds
Political Geography:: China, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, Syria, and Xinjiang

29. Does Hezbollah Want a War with Israel Now?

Author:: Orna Mizrahi and Yoram Schweitzer
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Voices in the Arab media have recently suggested that war between Israel and Hezbollah may erupt this coming summer. This debate began even before the rise in tension between the United States and Iran in the Gulf, which once again brought to the fore the possibility of Iran using Hezbollah as a proxy against Israel. In recent speeches, however, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah acted quickly to calm the waters, while delivering messages designed to deter Israel from taking measures against Hezbollah. Nasrallah asserted that Hezbollah was capable of striking strategic sites on the Israeli home front and conquering parts of the Galilee. These statements indicate that as far as Hezbollah is concerned, the current circumstances are not convenient for a conflict with Israel, due to Hezbollah's continuing involvement in the war in Syria and a wish to avoid undermining Hezbollah's recent achievements in the Lebanese political system. Also important is Hezbollah's deepening economic plight, resulting in part from American sanctions against the organization and its patron, Iran, although these economic difficulties have not yet affected Hezbollah's continued investment in its military buildup and deployment for a future war with Israel. Nevertheless, even if Hezbollah has no interest in a large scale conflict with Israel at this time, escalation as a result of particular measures by Israel in Lebanon and the organization's response, or from Hezbollah's own actions against Israel aimed at serving Iranian interests, cannot be ruled out. Israel must therefore prepare in advance for the possibility of a military campaign in the north.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Hezbollah, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Persian Gulf

30. The Return of ISIS in Iraq, Syria, and the Middle East

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman and Abdullah Toukan
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The U.S., its European allies, and its Strategic Partners in the Middle East achieved a significant victory in breaking up the ISIS protostate – or “caliphate” – in Syria and Iraq. This break up has sharply reduced the fighting against ISIS in Iraq, and in Eastern Syria. The U.S.-led Coalition did not, however, fully defeat ISIS in either Iraq or Syria or eliminate ISIS and other forms of extremism as serious threats. It did not bring lasting stability to Iraq or end the Syrian civil war, and it did not eliminate the threat from ISIS and other extremist groups in the rest of the MENA area. This analysis covers two important aspects of the crisis in Iraq and Syria since the break of the “caliphate.” First, it summarizes key official reporting on the resurgence of ISIS as a serious threat in both Syria and Iraq. Second, it puts ISIS in perspective – showing that it did not dominate the violence and levels of terrorism in Syria even at its peak, and noting that ISIS is only one of the major threats to stability in Iraq.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, ISIS, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

31. Moscow, the Palestinians, and the Arab Spring that Never Was

Author:: Micky Aharonson
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Russia seeks to be more involved in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by presenting it as critical to the stability of the whole Middle East. But the legitimacy that it accords to Hamas rules out deeper Russian involvement from Israel’s point of view.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

32. Lebanon’s Reaction to Operation Northern Shield

Author:: Elisheva Simon
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Lebanon has neither the desire nor the ability to address Hezbollah’s threat to its sovereignty. The likelihood of Lebanon suffering severe damage in a war against Israel does not change this situation.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Sovereignty, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

33. Syria’s Civil War Is Now 3 Civil Wars

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The fight to depose Assad is over. The battle over his regime’s boundaries has no end in sight.
Topic:: Civil War, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Islamic State, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

34. Hamas Misread the Map

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The IDF’s response will be harsher than usual, not because Israelis in the center are more valued than those in the periphery but because of the emerging need to show Hamas that it has grossly misjudged.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Hamas, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

35. Egyptian Mediation in Gaza is a Strategic Asset by its Own Right

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: It is in Israel’s interest to solidify the Egyptian role in Gaza, in the context of “conflict management” as a governing policy concept. Egyptian participation in the efforts to stabilize the situation in Gaza serves as an important component in the vital Egypt-Israel relationship. It also helps erode Hamas’ pretensions of Jihad.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Terrorism, Territorial Disputes, Leadership, Peace, Hamas, Strategic Stability, and Mediation
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt

36. Will Iran Retaliate against the US for Designating the IRGC as a Terrorist Organization?

Author:: Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Iran is not likely to target American troops, since Teheran’s strategy is to wait-out the Trump administration.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, Conflict, and State Sponsored Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

37. Iran’s Grip on Gaza is Israel’s Nightmare

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The notion that Hamas could be incentivised by the injection of funds from Qatar has proven erroneous or deeply problematic.
Topic:: Terrorism, Conflict, Hamas, and State Sponsored Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Qatar

38. Iran’s Struggle to Entrench Itself in Syria

Author:: Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel, Russia and to some extent the US stand in the way of Iran’s permanent entrenchment in Syria. Israel needs to continue its strikes against Iranian and Hezbollah infrastructures across Syria.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, Conflict, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria

39. Expose the Misdeeds of Iran’s Foreign Ministry

Author:: Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: It is complicit in Hizballah’s terrorism and subversion, in Europe and the US.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, Hezbollah, and State Sponsored Terrorism
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

40. A Large-Scale Ground Offensive against Hamas is Inevitable

Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Neglecting IDF ground maneuver capabilities is a dangerous gamble.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, Hamas, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

41. Exposing Hezbollah’s lies

Author:: Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel has an interest in seeing Hezbollah’s image in Lebanon continue to erode and for pressure on the organization to increase. The time may have come for Israel to use the information at its disposal in order to remove the mask from the organization terrorizing Lebanon
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, Hezbollah, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

42. Iran Creating More Hezbollahs Across the Middle East

Author:: Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Escalating tensions with Iran should be a warning that Tehran’s strategy of training and arming proxy terror groups throughout the Middle East is not being countered aggressively enough.
Topic:: Terrorism, Conflict, Hezbollah, and State Sponsored Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

43. Rojava Sundown – A Retrospective

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Islamic State, that most malignant expression of the Sunni Islamist trend, was the natural enemy of this emergent Kurdish autonomy.
Topic:: Terrorism, Minorities, Islamic State, Conflict, and Autonomy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, and Kurdistan

44. US-Iran Showdown Begins in Iraq

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Ktaib Hizballah, with its political, military, economic and mafia-like aspects, is the most potent enemy of the US and its allies in Iraq today.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Governance, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

45. Endgame in Syria

Author:: Janko Bekić
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: After seven years the war in Syria is nearing its completion, even though the result will almost certainly not be a decisive victory by either side, but rather a frozen con�lict and unstable peace dictated by the regional and global powers embroiled in the con�lict. From a political scientist’s point of view, the most interesting feature of the war in Syria has been its gradual transformation from a failed revolution to oust president Bashar al-Assad and introduce democratic rule to a civil war between regime loyalists and a myriad of local as well as foreign islamist factions, and from there to a war on terrorism concentrated on eradicating Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s murderous and enslaving Islamic State. In its last phase, starting in late 2017, the war in Syria has mutated into a textbook example of proxy warfare in which the exhausted belligerents are fully dependent on their external sponsors and �ight mainly to accomplish geopolitical interests and goals of outside actors.
Topic:: Civil War, Terrorism, Conflict, and Repression
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

46. Pakistan and its Militants: Who is Mainstreaming Whom?

Author:: James M Dorsey
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Pakistani militants of various stripes collectively won just under ten per cent of the vote in the July 2018 parliamentary elections. Some represented long-standing legal Islamist parties, others newly established groups or fronts for organisations that have been banned as terrorists by Pakistan and/or the United Nations and the United States. The militants failed to secure a single seat in the national assembly but have maintained, if not increased, their ability to shape national debate and mainstream politics and societal attitudes. Their ability to field candidates in almost all constituencies, and, in many cases, their performance as debutants enhanced their legitimacy. The militants’ performance has fueled debate about the Pakistani military’s effort to expand its long- standing support for militants that serve its regional and domestic goals to nudge them into mainstream politics. It also raises the question of who benefits most, mainstream politics or the militants. Political parties help mainstream militants, but militants with deep societal roots and significant following are frequently key to a mainstream candidate’s electoral success. Perceptions that the militants may stand to gain the most are enhanced by the fact that decades of successive military and civilian governments, abetted and aided by Saudi Arabia, have deeply embedded ultra-conservative, intolerant, anti-pluralist, and supremacist strands of Sunni Islam in significant segments of Pakistani society. Former international cricket player Imran Khan’s electoral victory may constitute a break with the country’s corrupt dynastic policies that ensured that civilian power alternated between two clans, the Bhuttos and the Sharifs. However, his alignment with ultra-conservatism’s social and religious views, as well as with militant groups, offers little hope for Pakistan becoming a more tolerant, pluralistic society, and moving away from a social environment that breeds extremism and militancy. On the contrary, policies enacted by Khan and his ministers since taking office suggest that ultra- conservatism and intolerance are the name of the game. If anything, Khan’s political history, his 2018 election campaign, and his actions since coming to office reflect the degree to which aspects of militancy, intolerance, anti-pluralism, and supremacist ultra- conservative Sunni Muslim Islam have, over decades, been woven into the fabric of segments of society and elements of the state. The roots of Pakistan’s extremism problem date to the immediate wake of the 1947 partition of British India when using militants as proxies was a way to compensate for Pakistan’s economic and military weakness. They were entrenched by Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in the 1970s and General Zia ul-Haq’s Islamization of Pakistani society in the 1980s. The rise of Islamist militants in the US-Saudi supported war against Soviet occupation troops in Afghanistan and opportunistic policies by politicians and rulers since then have shaped contemporary Pakistan.
Topic:: Islam, Religion, Terrorism, United Nations, Violent Extremism, Secularism, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: Pakistan, United States, and Middle East

47. Al Qaeda’s Struggling Campaign in Syria

Author:: Seth G. Jones
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: With President Donald Trump threatening to pull out of Syria, the Bashar al-Assad regime ramping up its military campaign against rebels, and the Islamic State in decline, al Qaeda has attempted to resurge and reposition itself at the center of global Salafi-jihadist activity. Syria has been perhaps its most important prize. For some, al Qaeda’s cunning and concerted efforts in Syria and other countries highlight the group’s resilience and indicate its potential to resurge and rejuvenate. Yet a growing body of evidence suggests that al Qaeda has largely failed to take advantage of the Syrian war. Confusion and finger-pointing have been rampant as individuals have clashed over ideology, territorial control, personalities, loyalty to al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, and command-and-control relationships. Al Qaeda’s struggles in Syria have also highlighted some weaknesses of al-Zawahiri. The al Qaeda leader has had difficulty communicating with local groups in Syria, been slow to respond to debates in the field, and discovered that some Salafi-jihadist fighters have brazenly disobeyed his guidance. As one Salafi-jihadist leader remarked, “The situation in Syria for the jihad is extremely dire.”
Topic:: Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Al Qaeda
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

48. Developing a Containment Strategy in Syria

Author:: Seth G. Jones
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The Issue Some U.S. policymakers have argued that the United States should withdraw its military forces from Syria. But the United States has several interests in Syria: Balancing against Iran, including deterring Iranian forces and militias from pushing close to the Israeli border, disrupting Iranian lines of communication through Syria, preventing substantial military escalation between Israel and Iran, and weakening Shia proxy forces. Balancing against Russia, including deterring further Russian expansion in the Middle East from Syrian territory and raising the costs—including political costs—of Russian operations in Syria. Preventing a terrorist resurgence, including targeting Salafi-jihadist groups like the Islamic State and al Qaeda that threaten the United States and its allies. Our Recommendations: Based on U.S. interests in Syria, Washington should establish a containment strategy that includes the following components: Retain a small military and intelligence footprint that includes working with—and providing limited training, funding, and equipment to—groups in eastern, northern, and southern Syria, such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Coordinate with regional allies such as Jordan and Israel to balance against Iran and Russia and to prevent the resurgence of Salafi-jihadists. Pressure outside states to end support to Salafi-jihadists, including Turkey and several Gulf states. As the war in Syria moves into its seventh year, U.S. policymakers have struggled to agree on a clear Syria strategy. Some U.S. policymakers have argued that the United States needs to withdraw its military forces from Syria. “I want to get out,” President Trump said of the United States’ military engagement in Syria. “I want to bring our troops back home.”1 Others have urged caution, warning that a precipitous withdrawal could contribute to a resurgence of terrorism or allow U.S. competitors like Iran and Russia—along with their proxies—to fill the vacuum.2 In addition, some administration officials have argued that the Islamic State has been decimated in Syria and Iraq. The National Security Strategy notes that “we crushed Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) terrorists on the battlefields of Syria and Iraq.”3 But between 5,000 and 12,000 Islamic State fighters remain in Syria and continue to conduct guerrilla attacks, along with between 40,000 and 70,000 Salafi-jihadist fighters in Syria overall.4
Topic:: Civil War, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

49. The Escalating Conflict with Hezbollah in Syria

Author:: Seth G. Jones
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The Issue: Hezbollah and Iran have accumulated a substantial amount of weapons and fighters in Syria that pose a threat to the United States and its allies in the region. In response, Israel has conducted a growing number of strikes against Iranian, Hezbollah and other targets in Syria. An escalating war has the potential to cause significant economic damage, lead to high numbers of civilian casualties and internally displaced persons, and involve more countries in the region than did the 2006 Lebanon War. The stakes are high, making it critical for Washington to help prevent such an escalation.
Topic:: Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Syrian War, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

50. ISIS and Nusra Funding and the Ending of the Syrian War

Author:: Howard J. Shatz
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Discussion paper for the workshop on: “The emerging security dynamics and the political settlement in Syria”, Syracuse, Italy, 18-19 October 2018. The Syrian war encompasses multiple conflicts and a diversity of groups. This paper considers the financial support that two groups in particular have received: the Islamic State (also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS] or, by its Arabic acronym, Daesh) and Jabhat al-Nusra (the Victory Front). Both are US-designated foreign terrorist organisations and specially designated global terrorists and employ terrorist tactics, such as suicide bombings, but they also may be considered insurgent groups by their goals and actions of governing territory.
Topic:: Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Finance, Islamic State, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Jabhat al-Nusra
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

51. Stabilizing and Reconstructing Iraq: A Challenging Path Ahead

Author:: Michael Pregent and Jonas Parello-Plesner
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Iraq has militarily defeated the terrorist organization ISIS. This is the good news, which was also underlined at the recent Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS meeting in Kuwait on 13 February 2018 held in conjunction with the Kuwaiti Reconstruction Conference for Iraq. Yet the task ahead is as daunting as any military campaign. Now Iraq needs to rebuild and to heal its communities to foster an inclusive national identity. Challenges remain, from funding continuing stabilization efforts to the even larger resources needed for reconstruction over the coming years. According to announcements made at the Iraqi reconstruction conference in Kuwait, donors have pledged a decent amount, around $30 billion, although $88 billion was touted as the desired amount by the Iraqi Government. The Gulf countries and Turkey are becoming new large donors. The private sector also showed significant interest, although corruption is still a major concern, which the Iraqi government seeks to address. Continued stabilization is making it possible and desirable for internally displaced persons (IDPs) to return to their homes. Over 3 million Iraqis have returned, but more await in camps or temporary accommodations. Equally important is reconciliation. The UN is working with the Iraqi government to implement this at the national level. Baghdad and Erbil should pursue continued dialogue and concrete steps forward, including on the thorny issue of Kirkuk, in accordance with the Iraqi Constitution. Inclusiveness for Sunnis is important, both during reconstruction and before and after elections, as their disenfranchisement helped produce fertile soil for ISIS. Yet reconciliation should not be only top-down, and local community efforts undertaken by Iraqi civil society organizations are essential. Reconstruction funding should be tied to government reforms and more importantly, to tangible progress on reconciliation and political accommodation efforts. A novel aspect of the conference was the US administration’s new approach to burden-sharing in the aftermath of the ISIS presence in Iraq. President Trump wants to build infrastructure at home in the US and has tweeted dismissively about the $7 trillion the US has already spent in the Middle East. The United States will not disburse public funding for reconstruction, which is seen as nation-building, although it remains among the top contributors to humanitarian and stabilization assistance and will provide loans to private companies. Yet even such investments could pose additional risk for American companies because of sanctions against Iran, whose economic presence is felt in several important sectors. Instead, the US encouraged international institutions and others to step up, and Saudi Arabia, for example, contributed $1.5 billion. Leading up to the conference, the US facilitated a diplomatic reconciliation process between Iraq and Saudi Arabia for outstanding debts owed to Riyadh. The conference also gave Prime Minister Haider al Abadi a strong platform for brandishing his vision of a united Iraq, although some areas, particularly in the Sunni parts of the country, still feel excluded from reconstruction planning. Still, it is an open question whether that positive vision is enough to bring him another governing coalition following the Iraqi parliamentary elections in May. The continued presence of American military forces is increasingly a topic of contention in the elections.
Topic:: International Relations, Humanitarian Aid, Terrorism, Reconstruction, Radicalization, Islamic State, Humanitarian Intervention, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Kuwait, and United States of America

52. “We Didn’t Think It Would Hit Us:” Understanding the Impact of Attacks on Schools in Syria

Author:: Save Syrian Schools
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:: “Everything changed.” Such are the words of a young Syrian student speaking about the aftermath of an attack on his school that took the lives of his brother and friends and forever changed his. He now works in a tailor’s office because he could no longer bear going to school, carrying with him the memories of that day and the loved ones he lost. His story is just one among countless others of lives irrevocably changed as the result of attacks on schools and the loss, not only of loved ones, but of childhood, innocence, and opportunity. Worse, it is not just individual lives that have been changed. The widespread attacks on schools during the country’s brutal conflict have torn apart families, left behind shells of formerly vibrant communities, and altered the future of Syrian society. The report, “‘We Didn’t Think It Would Hit Us:’ Understanding the Impact of Attacks on Schools in Syria,” examines attacks on schools from multiple angles: from the legal implications of such attacks to the everyday impact on the lives of students, teachers, families, and society at large. The findings leave no doubt that the impacts are as numerous as they are vast and, at best, will take decades to meaningfully address. Of course, such a process cannot even really begin until the ongoing onslaught of violence against Syrian civilians stops and real action is taken to reverse the country’s rapid spiral from repression to peaceful protest to brutal armed conflict in response to these protests. The report has been years in the making, and the process of writing it is in itself notable. It began when 11 organizations—10 Syrian and one international—came together in search of a way to combat the growing fatigue beginning to afflict Syrian activists, as a result of documenting increasingly abhorrent and unending violations of human rights and against a backdrop unfulfilled promises of action and accountability. At the start of the conflict, these activists and other civil society actors coalesced quickly, creating transitional justice proposals and post-conflict road maps. They documented violations based on the belief that the conflict would end quickly and those responsible for human rights violations would be brought to justice swiftly. Of course, what has happened instead is that the conflict has only intensified with each passing year, becoming increasingly complex as more and more actors are introduced, many from outside Syria. Fatigued yet undeterred, after a series of dialogues and careful consultations with a wide set of civil society stakeholders, the 11 coauthoring organizations came together to work on a joint project—dubbed the Save Syrian Schools project—that would combine and amplify the different organizational strengths represented within the group. These capacities range from storytelling and advocacy, to large and highly credible networks of on-the-ground documenters and valuable archives of information. The result is a body of work that shines desperately needed light on the voices of Syrians affected in diverse ways by attacks on schools and calls attention to the glaring breaches of human rights that have occurred with regard to these acts of destruction. The driving force behind the year and a half of dedicated work is the desire to, first, end the violence and, second, ensure that the resulting harms are fully understood so that national and international actors alike are left with no choice but to address them through a nuanced and well-informed process of justice, acknowledgment, redress, and reform. The findings of the report are informed by several sources: the databases and archives of group members detailing individual attacks on schools and providing information on methods of attack, location, school names, casualty numbers, likely perpetrators, and so on; careful desk research with priority given to the research, publications, and other resources produced by partner organizations; and in-person field interviews and focus groups with students, teachers, school staff, parents, and local officials from communities affected by school attacks.
Topic:: Education, Terrorism, Transitional Justice, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

53. A Sense of Victory on Both Sides: A Recipe for Escalation in Gaza?

Author:: Amos Yadlin
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Following the "March of Return" events led by Hamas on two turbulent Fridays at the border fence between Israel and the Gaza Strip, both sides declared victory. And in the case of such a blatantly asymmetric conflict between parties with opposing aims, both sides can indeed claim victory, precisely because they are conducting parallel maneuvers. Israel operates largely on a physical dimension (protecting its sovereign territory), while Hamas works mainly on the cognitive-political level. In a world of images, intensive information campaigns, and mass media (including fake news), a sense of victory on both sides could intensify the hostilities on the Gaza border and perhaps even beyond in the coming weeks. Israel must stress that it is defending a recognized international border; clarify the legality and proportionality of its use of live fire; expand its visual documentation of the events; update Arab countries about the facts and balance the pro-Hamas messages delivered in the Arab media; and prepare for an escalation of the conflict. Finally, while focused on the immediate challenge of mass demonstrations on the Gaza border, Israel must continue to address the underlying issue: the growing distress in Gaza and the collapse of its infrastructures will make it hard for Israel to continue managing the situation with relatively low political, military, and financial costs. Mid-May will be followed by the month of Ramadan and another scorching summer. Temporary success in containing the new challenge posed by Hamas will not defuse the social-economic-military time bomb ticking in the Strip.
Topic:: Terrorism, Infrastructure, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

54. Waking Up to the Iranian Threat

Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: With the weakening of ISIS, the growing strength of Russia in Syria, and the continuing retraction of American involvement in the region – Iran apparently feels emboldened enough to escalate its confrontation with Israel.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, and ISIS
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America

55. Hamas’ Junior Partner, Iran’s Hidden Hand

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel must make it clear to Hamas that letting Islamic Jihad trigger another widespread escalation does not serve its interests or its continued existence.
Topic:: Terrorism, Conflict, State Funding, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

56. Winning Hasbara Strategies

Author:: David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The deep “psychological asymmetry” employed by Hamas and Fatah as a strategic weapon against Israel is working. How to handle this? Here are five strategies, including this: Don’t be embarrassed by Israel’s strength. Admit to it. Flaunt it. Better shock-and-awe than shrink-and-whimper.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

57. Justice for the Victims: How Canada Should Manage Returning “Foreign Fighters”

Author:: Kyle Matthews
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: The U.S.-led international coalition has dislodged the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) from the cities it had occupied and controlled, namely Mosul and Raqqa. But while the group is weakened, it lives on and remains dangerous. Both the U.S. Department of Defense and the UN estimate that approximately 30,000 ISIS fighters remain in those countries. At the same time, a significant number of “foreign fighters” have fled Iraq and Syria. Numerous countries are struggling to find policy solutions with regards to managing the return of their nationals who had joined the group. The Canadian government has stated publicly that it favors taking a comprehensive approach of reintegrating returnees back into society. Very few foreign fighters who have returned to Canada have been prosecuted. Canada has both a moral and legal duty to seek justice and uphold the most basic human rights of vulnerable populations. ISIS and other jihadist groups engaged in systematic mass atrocities against minorities in Iraq and Syria, including Christians and Shiites. ISIS has demonstrated a particular disdain for the Yazidi minority in Iraq, and the Canadian government has recognized the group’s crimes against the Yazidis as genocide. As a State Party to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court and a signatory of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, Canada has a responsibility to uphold these international legal conventions when formulating carefully crafted policy responses that deal with returning foreign fighters. Canada should attempt to prosecute its nationals in domestic courts using the Crimes Against Humanity and War Crimes Act. Open trials can serve as means by which to lay bare ISIS’ narrative and to help counter violent extremism and future atrocities. They can also serve as a deterrent and warning to other Canadians who might try to join ISIS as it mutates and moves to other countries in the world, such as Libya, Afghanistan, Egypt, the Philippines, Pakistan, or heaven forbid, in Mali where Canadian peacekeepers have recently been deployed. If Canada truly stands for multiculturalism, pluralism, the rule of law, global justice, human rights, and the liberal international order, then we must stand firm and take a principled stand to prosecute those who have fought under the ISIS banner. That includes our own citizens.
Topic:: Crime, Human Rights, Terrorism, Islamic State, Justice, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Canada, Syria, North America, and United States of America

58. ‘Mowing the grass’ in Gaza

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Because ending terrorism from Gaza is unrealistic, Israel has wisely adopted a strategy of attrition. If there is soon to be a large-scale ground operation, conquering the whole Strip should not be the goal.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

59. After Ahvaz: Iran’s Regime Faces the Consequences of its Subversive Campaigns

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: While Israel should steer away from overt identification with internal challengers in Iran, this is the time to urge the US. and other like-inded nations to ratchet up the pressure on the regime, explaining to the Iranian people the growing cost of their leaders’ ambitions.
Topic:: Terrorism, Hegemony, ISIL, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt

60. Hamas’ Cyber Activity against Israel

Author:: Omer Dostri
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Although Hamas’ cyber capabilities do not now constitute a serious threat to Israel, this reality can quickly change in view of the rapid pace of technological progress.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Terrorism, Cybersecurity, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

61. Restore Deterrence, but Bet on Mediation

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Iran and the smaller terrorist groups in Gaza want a full-scale war with Israel. Hamas does not. Israel should land a decisive, well-defined blow but back Egyptian efforts to broker a cease-fire.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Terrorism, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt

62. A draw with Hamas is strategically unsatisfactory

Author:: David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Reducing enemy capabilities and ambitions in Gaza requires Israeli military readiness and government willingness to use force intermittently, while maintaining a healthy and resilient Israeli home front.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

63. The Lebanese Armed Forces: Hezbollah’s Collaborator

Author:: Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The Lebanese army should be treated as a hostile entity, its camouflage should be stripped away, and the American administration should be supplied with conclusive evidence of the multi-faceted cooperation between it and Hezbollah.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Hezbollah, Armed Conflict, and State Sponsored Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

64. In the Middle East, You Win With Fear

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Only a crushing and devastating blow to Hamas will pave the way for a truce that would not be a victory for the terrorists.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Hamas, and Fear
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

65. The Threat is Real

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The challenge now is how to make it clear to the Hamas leadership that it should not believe is own supercilious words.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

66. On Hezbollah’s Intention to Seize Control of the Economic and Monetary Systems in Lebanon

Author:: Elisheva Simon
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Hezbollah’s leadership has come to realize that harsher US sanctions pose a serious threat to the revolutionary regime in Tehran. It will become increasingly difficult for the regime to finance the full spectrum of its revolutionary ambitions. Hezbollah has therefore had to focus on securing its own sources of funding and providing employment for its members and followers through ever-deeper engagement in Lebanon’s economic and financial spheres of activity.
Topic:: Terrorism, Hezbollah, Regional Economy, and State Sponsored Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

67. Restraint and Deterrence

Author:: Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel’s security requirements on other fronts, require containment of the conflict on the southern front, while continuing to build the western Negev notwithstanding Hamas’ arson attempts.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Territorial Disputes, Deterrence, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

68. Reasserting Israel’s Deterrence in Gaza

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: It is necessary for Israel’s political and military leaders to readjust their conceptual framework concerning deterrence, and to engage the public in an open and effective dialogue on the deterrence equations. Also needed is a more specific and accurate capacity to strike fear into Hamas leadership by signaling both willingness and ability to destroy the assets that they value most.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Deterrence, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Gaza

69. How far will the IDF go in confronting Hezbollah?

Author:: Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Should a large operation inside Lebanon be considered after Hezbollah’s tunnels are successfully neutralized?
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, Hezbollah, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

70. Hysterical Reactions to Recent Terrorist Attacks

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The fitting Israeli response is to demonstrate resilience, and to declare that despite the terror and the pain we will remain in the land of our forefathers.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and State Sponsored Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

71. The Fall of the Caliphate

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: No new beginnings in sight for ravaged Syria.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Islamic State, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Syria

72. The Islamic State and the Persistent Threat of Extremism in Iraq

Author:: Maxwell B. Markusen
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Despite hard-fought victories to retake Islamic State territory, there are three major signs that Islamic State militants are regrouping, taking advantage of ongoing instability, and refocusing their campaign against the Iraqi government.
Topic:: Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

73. Don’t Return Terrorist Bodies for Nothing

Author:: Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: It makes no sense to return the bodies of Hamas terrorists killed in a tunnel strike without Hamas giving us something in exchange.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Violent Extremism, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

74. Iran In Charge

Author:: Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: A few seemingly unrelated incidents that took place across the Middle East this week all seem to point out that much of the regional unrest can be traced back to Iran, which is backing Shiite forces from Pakistan to Syria. That is unlikely to change.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Lebanon

75. Emerging European Security Challenges

Author:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: The Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination at Princeton University (LISD) convened a special Liechtenstein Colloquium,“Emerging European Security Challenges,” in Triesenberg, Principality of Liechtenstein, from November 12-15, 2015. The colloquium brought together senior diplomats, academics, policy-makers, experts and representatives of European civil society and NGOs. The colloquium was off-the-record and was financially supported by a grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and SIBIL Foundation, Vaduz. The objective of the colloquium was to examine the interactions between and the various effects of three key crises—the Ukraine war, the war in Syria, and the European refugee crisis—for broader regional, EU, and international security. Cluster One considered “Russia, Ukraine, the West, and the future of collective security,” including the role of the Baltic states in security issues, the relationship between Russia and the European Union, and the role of media, information and hybrid warfare. Cluster Two, “The Syrian War and ISIS/Da’esh” focused on several issues related to the ongoing civil war and conflict in the Middle East, including alliances of the Assad government, rebel and other opposition groups, ISIS/Da’esh, Russia, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, and, especially, the Kurds. Emphasis was put on the plight of Christians and other religious groups in the region. Cluster Three, “The refugee crisis and the challenge of European collective action,” connected the worst refugee crisis in Europe since World War II to the situation in the MENA region. It focused on refugees and migrants within Europe’s borders and along the Balkan route, the role of Turkey, Greece and Germany, terrorism concerns, and EU actions and emerging differences between member states. The protection of religious minorities and the longer-term question of integration and assimilation of refugees and asylum-seekers offered another focus. This report reflects the substance of these discussions and includes an updated Chair’s Addendum.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, European Union, Refugee Crisis, ISIS, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Syria

76. Soccer vs. Jihad: A Draw

Author:: James M Dorsey
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: There is much that militant Islamists and jihadists agree on, but when it comes to sports in general and soccer in particular sharp divisions emerge. Men like the late Osama bin Laden, Hamas Gaza leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah stand on one side of the ideological and theological divide opposite groups like the Taliban, Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen, Boko Haram, and the jihadists who took control of northern Mali in 2012. The Islamic State, the jihadist group that controls swaths of Syria and Iraq, belongs ideologically and theologically to the camp that views soccer as an infidel invention designed to distract the faithful from their religious obligations but opportunistically employs football in its sophisticated public relations and public diplomacy endeavour. Bin Laden, Haniyeh and Nasrallah employ soccer as a recruitment and bonding tool based on the belief of Salafi and mainstream Islamic scholars who argue that Prophet Muhammad advocated physical exercise to maintain a healthy body. However, the more militant students of Islam seek to re- write the rules of the game to Islamicise it, if not outright ban the sport. The practicality and usefulness of soccer is evident in the fact that perpetrators of attacks, like those by Hamas on civilian targets in Israel in 2003 and the 2004 Madrid train bombings, bonded by playing soccer together.
Topic:: Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Sports, Islamic State, and Militant Islam
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

77. How to Build a More Sustainable and Mutually Beneficial Relationship with Saudi Arabia

Author:: Human Rights First
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Human Rights First
Abstract:: The United States is not taking Saudi Arabia’s outsized responsibility for human rights abuses within or beyond the kingdom’s borders seriously enough. President Barack Obama did not raise the issue in his meeting last year with the late King Abdullah. On his way to meet the new Saudi monarch, King Salman, in January 2015 the President remarked, “Sometimes we have to balance our need to speak to them about human rights issues with immediate concerns that we have in terms of countering terrorism or dealing with regional stability." He did not mention that Saudi Arabia’s policies (denying rights and freedoms at home while leading a vigorous, region-wide effort to push back against popular calls for better governance) have themselves contributed to regional instability and undermined counterterrorism efforts. Such policies harm U.S. interests and those of the people of Saudi Arabia and the region as a whole.
Topic:: Human Rights, Regional Cooperation, Terrorism, and Repression
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

78. How to Counter Terrorism by Supporting Civil Society in the United Arab Emirates

Author:: Brian Dooley
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Human Rights First
Abstract:: President Obama recently made a series of commendable declarations supporting civil society and affirming its importance to securing stability and fighting extremism. At the White House’s Summit on Countering Violent Extremism in February 2015 he announced, “When people are oppressed, and human rights are denied—particularly along sectarian lines or ethnic lines—when dissent is silenced, it feeds violent extremism. It creates an environment that is ripe for terrorists to exploit. When peaceful, democratic change is impossible, it feeds into the terrorist propaganda that violence is the only answer available.” The President added, “[W]e must recognize that lasting stability and real security require democracy. That means free elections where people can choose their own future, and independent judiciaries that uphold the rule of law, and police and security forces that respect human rights, and free speech and freedom for civil society groups.” That same month he said, “My argument to any partner that we have is that you are better off if you've got a strong civil society and you've got democratic legitimacy and you are respectful of human rights.” In April 2015, speaking specifically about the six U.S. allies that comprise the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—he noted, “The biggest threats that they face may not be coming from Iran invading,” and warned of “populations that, in some cases, are alienated, youth that are underemployed, an ideology that is destructive and nihilistic, and in some cases, just a belief that there are no legitimate political outlets for grievances.” A lack of peaceful outlets for political grievances does indeed drive extremism and instability, but the Obama Administration continues to provide seemingly unconditional political and military support for GCC countries that have actually increased their repression against civil society in recent years. This contradiction at the heart of U.S. policy must be confronted and resolved, especially because it has a direct bearing on counterterrorism cooperation and U.S. national security interests. The president promised to have a “tough conversation” with the GCC leaders about their destructive policies. The \ White House and Camp David meetings with GCC leaders on May 13-14, 2015 provides the perfect opportunity to develop that conversation. Human Rights First produced blueprints in 2015 for how the United States can support civil society in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia to encourage reform and respect for human rights—advances that would help bring stability to a volatile region and align with the administration’s stated policy goals. This report extends that series to an analysis of the repression of another U.S. security partner in the Gulf: the United Arab Emirates. It examines the UAE’s relations with the United States and what Washington can do to support a besieged Emirati civil society. Strong, functioning civil societies across the world—including in the UAE—are, as President Obama rightly identified, “a matter of national security” for the United States. This report is based on research conducted during a Human Rights First fact-finding trip to the UAE in April 2015, including dozens of discussions with human rights defenders, civil society activists, journalists, academics, lawyers, independent experts, officials from the United States and other governments, and others. Local human rights activists spoke to Human Rights First on condition of anonymity out of fear for their safety. Human Rights First thanks all those who provided information for this report.
Topic:: Civil Society, Human Rights, Terrorism, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Abu Dhabi, and UAE

79. The Islamic State’s Strategy: Lasting and Expanding

Author:: Lina Khatib
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The self-proclaimed Islamic State is a hybrid jihadist group with a declared goal of establishing a “lasting and expanding” caliphate. Its strategy for survival and growth blends military, political, social, and economic components. Yet the U.S.-led international intervention against it has largely been limited to air strikes. The gaps in the international coalition’s approach as well as deep sectarian divisions in Iraq and the shifting strategies of the Syrian regime and its allies are allowing the Islamic State to continue to exist and expand.
Topic:: Civil War, Islam, Terrorism, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria

80. Iraqi Stability and the “ISIS War”

Author:: Anthony H Cordesman
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The events in Iraq over the last month have shown that any success in Iraq requires both the Iraqi government and the United States to go far beyond the war against ISIS, and makes any partisan debate over who lost Iraq as damaging to U.S. national interests as any other aspect of America’s drift toward partisan extremism. The war against ISIS is a critical U.S. national security interest. It not only threatens to create a major center of terrorism and extremism in a critical part of the Middle East, and one that could spread to threaten the flow of energy exports and the global economy, but could become a major center of international terrorism. It is important to understand, however, that ISIS is only one cause of instability in the region, and only one of the threats caused by spreading sectarian and ethnic violence.
Topic:: Terrorism and International Security
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

81. From 9/11 to Da'esh: What Role for the High Representative and the External Dimension of EU Counter-Terrorism Policies?

Author:: Maria Giulia Amadio Viceré
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Under certain conditions, such as security crises, an integrated external EU counter-terrorism policy can emerge without leading to the supra-nationalisation of policy-making. This paper analyses the role of the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy with the objective of assessing the influence that such figure can have on the governance of EU counter-terrorism policies. It does so by assessing the EU’s response to three security crises, namely: the 9/11 attacks and the subsequent bombings in Madrid (2004) and London (2005); the Arab Spring and the following destabilisation of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA); and the emergence and spread of Da’esh.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Counterinsurgency, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe and Middle East
Publication Identifier:: 978-88-98650-53-8
Publication Identifier Type:: ISBN

82. Managing a Transnational Insurgency: The Islamic State of Iraqʹs “Paper Trail,” 2005‐2010

Author:: Jon Wallace, Jacob N. Shapiro, Pat Ryan, and Danielle F. Jung
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:: A cornerstone of strategic thinking is a clear understanding of one’s opponent. Developing such an understanding in dealing with the Islamic State (IS) is challenging. Constraints on access to the frontlines in Iraq and Syria make it unusually hard for researchers to ground assessments in evidence‐based approaches. This occasional paper contributes to the development of an empirically grounded understanding of the IS by analyzing the finances and management of the group’s predecessor, the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), which changed its name to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in April 2013 and then the Islamic State in June 2014. There is a direct line of descent from Al‐Qa’ida in Iraq (AQI) through the Islamic State of Iraq to today’s Islamic State, despite changes in the group’s territorial holdings and the announced scale of its ambitions. Using historical documents to understand how AQI and the ISI were run can therefore help us better understand the current incarnation of the group, as well as the strengths and weaknesses it may have inherited.
Topic:: Terrorism, Counterinsurgency, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, and War on Terror
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

83. Maritime Security in the Middle East and North Africa: A Strategic Assessment

Author:: Robert M. Shelala II
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The waterways of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA region) are among the most important in the world. They facilitate the export of large volumes of oil and natural gas from the region, while also bridging traders in the Eastern and Western worlds through the Red Sea and Suez Canal. While political tensions in the region have at times played out in these waterways since the mid-20th century, their vulnerability has been exasperated in recent years by the failure of bordering governments to promote internal stability, the lack of adequate maritime security capabilities of nearby states, and the potential naval threats posed by the government of Iran.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, International Security, Military Strategy, and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and North Africa

84. Hezbollah in Syria

Author:: Marisa Sullivan
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:: Hezbollah's deepening involvement in Syria is one of the most important factors of the conflict in 2013 and 2014. Since the beginning of 2013, Hezbollah fighters have operated openly and in significant numbers across the border alongside their Syrian and Iraqi counterparts. They have enabled the regime to regain control of rebel-held areas in central Syria and have improved the effectiveness of pro-regime forces. The impact of Hezbollah's involvement in Syria has been felt not just on the battlefield, where the regime now has momentum in many areas, but also in Lebanon where growing sectarian tensions have undermined security and stability.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Syria

85. The Islamic State of Iraq Returns to Diyala

Author:: Jessica Lewis
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:: Anbar is not the only front in Iraq on which Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), now operating as the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS), is fighting in 2014. ISIS has also established a governorate in Diyala. Its spokesman has named the province the central front in the sectarian conflict he has urged. The security situation and sectarian tension in Diyala province are grave. ISIS has returned to fixed fighting positions within Muqdadiyah, Baqubah, and the Diyala River Valley. Shi'a militias are now active in these areas as well. Increasing instances of population displacement demonstrate the aggregate effect of targeted violence by both groups. It is important to estimate the effects of this displacement and the presence of armed groups within Diyala's major cities in order to understand how deteriorated security conditions in this province will interfere with Iraq's upcoming parliamentary elections. Furthermore, violence in Diyala has historically both driven and reflected inter-ethnic and inter-sectarian violence in other mixed areas of Iraq, including Baghdad. Diyala is therefore a significant bellwether for how quickly these types of violence will spread to other provinces.
Topic:: Security, Ethnic Conflict, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

86. The New Triangle of Egypt, Israel, and Hamas

Author:: Ehud Yaari
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With Israeli acquiescence to de facto alterations of the 1979 peace treaty, Egypt has deployed substantial military forces into the Sinai to combat terrorists. But Israel remains hesitant about Cairo's inclination to increase pressure on Hamas in Gaza. Over the past year, Israel and Egypt have used a little-known, legally permissible understanding -- the Agreed Activities Mechanism -- to bypass restrictions on the number and type of Egyptian forces permitted in much of the Sinai. In doing so, they have made de facto modifications to their 1979 peace treaty without resorting to the diplomatically risky procedure of "reviewing" the treaty itself. As a result, considerable Egyptian army forces are now constantly deployed in central and eastern Sinai (Areas B and C of the peninsula, respectively), in a manner and scope never envisaged by the teams that negotiated the treaty more than three decades ago. Going forward, this new reality on the ground is unlikely to be reversed and is bound to have profound consequences for Egyptian-Israeli security cooperation, Cairo's ongoing counterterrorism campaign, and the fate of Hamas in the neighboring Gaza Strip.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Terrorism, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Gaza, Egypt, Sinai Peninsula, and Cairo

87. Trials and Tribulations in Lebanon

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The controversial Hariri trial will unfold amid growing sectarian violence in Lebanon, the seemingly interminable war in Syria, and a longstanding political stalemate regarding Hezbollah's role in government.
Topic:: Islam, Religion, Terrorism, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

88. Revival of Political Islam in the Aftermath of Arab Uprisings: Implications for the Region and Beyond

Author:: Mohammed El-Katiri
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: As part of the radical political changes that have affected a number of Arab countries over the past 4 years, the toppling of regimes and the organization of the first fair and free elections in several Arab states have allowed Islamist parties to rise to power. This highly visible political trend has caused mixed reactions, both within these countries and internationally. Prior to the Arab Spring, most countries in the region banned Islamist movements from forming political parties. For decades, members of such movements were jailed, tortured, and exiled from their home countries. Even in those states where Islamist political parties were allowed, they had limited freedom and were under the scrutiny of the regimes, as was, for example, the Moroccan Justice and Development Party.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, Democratization, Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

89. From War to Deterrence? Israel-Hezbollah Conflict Since 2006

Author:: Jean-loup Samaan
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: For 7 years now, the border area between Israel and Lebanon has witnessed calm and stability. At first sight, this has all the appearances of a paradox. The 2006 war between the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and the Lebanese organization, Hezbollah, was followed neither by a peace agreement nor by a mere diplomatic process. Both sides prepared their forces to wage the next war and additionally have been confronted in past years to major changes in the distribution of power in the Middle East in the midst of the so-called “Arab Spring.”
Topic:: Defense Policy, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

90. The Islamic State

Author:: Richard Barrett
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: The self-styled Islamic State is an accident of history, emerging from multiple social, political and economic tensions in the Middle East and beyond. It has challenged the territorial divisions imposed on the region following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire by carving out for itself a large area of territory. But ultimately, its impact will flow as much from its challenge to established concepts of government, national sovereignty, and national identity. The Islamic State is most notable for the violence with which it asserts control, but its ruthless tactics will likely prevent the group from ruling effectively and building broader support beyond the front line fighters who protect its security and the authoritarian killers who patrol its streets.
Topic:: Security, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

91. West Bank Violence and Gaza Rockets Could Spark Wider Conflict

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: There is no guarantee that a peace deal will be reached within the current timeline, but a Palestinian return to armed struggle would be a far greater political, economic, and humanitarian disaster than any short-term frustration with the negotiations. Peace processes are rarely peaceful processes, and the current U.S.-led effort to reach an Israeli-Palestinian "framework agreement" is no exception. As the tempo of negotiations between the main parties picks up speed, more radical actors have reemerged to violently oppose the process, from Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and the Popular Resistance Committees, to Salafi jihadist groups, to Marxist factions such as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP). Many observers have focused on the sharp increase in rockets fired at Israel from Gaza in the past few weeks and the prospect of another Gaza war. But that issue, while crucial, has drawn media attention away from two equally troubling trends: the increase in violence across the West Bank, and new signs that some officials from the Palestinian Authority and its leading party, Fatah, may be hedging their bets and preparing for wider violence if the peace process fails.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Terrorism, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: United States and Middle East

92. Iranian Aid to Fighters in the Gulf Peninsula

Author:: Lori Plotkin Boghardt
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A number of U.S. interests could be served by expanding support to strategic Gulf partners in their efforts to curb Iranian aid to local fighters. On March 6, Bahrain's foreign minister told the UN Human Rights Council that the ongoing violence in his country "is directly supported by elements of the Islamic Republic of Iran." The statement does not accurately explain all political violence in Bahrain, but not every claim of Iranian support for violence should be assumed to represent part of a government propaganda campaign. U.S. intelligence assesses that Iran is in fact providing arms and more to Bahraini and other fighters in the Arabian Peninsula, and Washington should increase support to important Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) partners to curb it.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, and United Nations

93. The U.S. Role in Iraq's Postelection Politics

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Washington has rightfully avoided backing a candidate in next week's elections, but it should still use counterterrorism assistance and other levers to push Baghdad on pluralism and KRG oil revenue sharing during the presumably lengthy transition period. On April 30, the Iraqi public will vote in national parliamentary elections, establishing the next four-year term of the 328-seat Council of Representatives. Thereafter, an equally consequential bargaining process will commence, taking the formation of the next government out of the public's hands and cloistering it behind closed doors. The United States has repeatedly prodded Baghdad to ensure that the vote is held on time, in all districts, and in a free and fair manner. Washington's role in the government formation process could be equally constructive, but it presents a far trickier challenge. Indeed, how the U.S. government acts during the postelection process could set the tone for bilateral relations throughout the next government's term.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Washington and Middle East

94. The Terrorist Funding Disconnect with Qatar and Kuwait

Author:: Lori Plotkin Boghardt
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Washington should look for small changes in Kuwait and Qatar's political and security calculus that could provide opportunities to support counter-terrorist financing measures there. On April 30, the U.S. State Department noted that private donations from Persian Gulf countries were "a major source of funding for Sunni terrorist groups, particularly...in Syria," calling the problem one of the most important counterterrorism issues during the previous calendar year. Groups such as al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra, and the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), previously known as al-Qaeda in Iraq, are believed to be frequent recipients of some of the hundreds of millions of dollars that wealthy citizens and others in the Gulf peninsula have been donating during the Syrian conflict.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Border Control
Political Geography:: Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Syria, and Qatar

95. Salafi Jihadists on the Rise in Jordan

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The longer the war in Syria continues, the greater the threat these fighters will likely pose. Last week, ten Jordanian Islamists who were apprehended while attempting to join the jihad in Syria were sentenced by the State Security Court to five years of hard labor. And last month, Jordanian F-16 fighter jets destroyed a convoy purportedly carrying al-Qaeda-affiliated anti-Assad-regime rebels traversing the border from Syria. These "spillover" incidents are only the latest in a disturbing trend. Over the past year, reports of Jordanian Salafi jihadists have become routine, raising the specter of terrorism returning to the kingdom.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Border Control
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Jordan

96. Israel vs. al-Qaeda: Emerging Challenges on Two Fronts

Author:: Ehud Yaari and Michael Morell
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A CIA veteran and an Israeli security expert discuss the growing presence of al-Qaeda affiliates in Sinai and Syria.
Topic:: Terrorism, International Security, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

97. Shabab al-Tawhid: The Rebranding of Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia?

Author:: Aaron Y. Zelin
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Security crackdowns will not be enough to eradicate jihadist networks in Tunisia and Libya, which have the patience and ideological conviction to weather drastic reorganization. Eight months ago, the Tunisian government officially designated Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia (AST) as a terrorist organization. Since then, Tunis has cracked down on the group's activities, going after both its dawa campaign (i.e., proselytization and social-welfare efforts) and any links members have to terrorist plots. On the whole, AST's public response has been to keep relatively quiet. Yet recent developments indicate that the group may be rebranding itself as Shabab al-Tawhid (ST; the Youth of Pure Monotheism), a shift that would have important implications for efforts to counter Tunisian jihadists and their associates in Libya.
Topic:: Islam, Religion, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Border Control
Political Geography:: Middle East, Libya, Arabia, and Tunisia

98. The Battle for Southern Syria Heating Up

Author:: Ehud Yaari
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Recent developments indicate a credible, previously unseen rebel threat to Damascus. While rebel militias have lately suffered serious setbacks in central and northern Syria, they are now recording significant successes in the south -- the region lying between Damascus and the Israeli and Jordanian borders. Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's loyalists are on the defensive on all related fronts, risking the loss of this strategically important sector. It is becoming increasingly evident that a rebel push toward the capital from the south may be more promising militarily than an offensive from the so-far-stalemated front lines north of Damascus. The next few weeks may witness further major rebel gains on the southern front, which may ultimately pose the main threat to Assad's control.
Topic:: Terrorism and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

99. Morocco's Approach to Countering Violent Extremism

Author:: Mohamed Salah Tamek
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Morocco has had a largely successful record of countering violent extremism within its borders, including the dismantling of numerous cells linked to al-Qaeda core or its North African offshoot, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Thousands of suspects have been arrested for perpetrating assassinations, assaults, and robberies; huge caches of heavy weapons have been confiscated; and authorities have foiled many attempts to attack security services, tourist attractions, diplomatic delegations, and places of worship for Christians and Jews. In addition, two channels of recruitment for jihadists in Mali were dismantled in late 2012, and two months ago, Moroccan and Spanish security forces jointly dismantled a transnational cell recruiting fighters for Syria and Mali.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Syria, Morocco, and Northern Mali

100. Iran and Bahrain: Crying Wolf, or Wolf at the Door?

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Bahraini government will need to distinguish better between protestors and terrorists if it wants Washington and other foreign partners to believe its claims of Iranian support for local militants. On May 5, in what has become an increasingly typical event in Bahrain, several individuals threw Molotov cocktails at a police post in a Shiite village, damaging storefronts but causing no casualties. Such incidents have intensified over the past few months in villages surrounding the capital, Manama -- in March, three police officers were killed by a bombing in al-Daih; last month, an explosion wounded another officer in the same village; days later, a police car was firebombed in Hamad Town.
Topic:: International Relations, Political Violence, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Bahrain

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS