51. Is The “Surge” Working? Some New Facts
- Author:
- Michael Greenstone
- Publication Date:
- 09-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- There is a paucity of facts about the effects of the recent military “Surge” on conditions in Iraq and whether it is paving the way for a stable Iraq. Selective, anecdotal and incomplete analyses abound. Policy makers and defense planners must decide which measures of success or failure are most important, but until now few, if any, systematic analyses were available on which to base those decisions. This paper applies modern statistical techniques to a new da ta file derived from more than a dozen of the most reliable and widely-cited sources to assess the Surge's impact on three key dimensions: the functioning of the Iraqi state (including civilian casualties); military casualties; and financial markets' assessment of Iraq's future. The new and unusually rigorous findings presented here should help inform current evaluations of the Surge and provide a basis for better decision making about future strategy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and War
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East