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2. Kurdistan’s Politicized Society Confronts a Sultanistic System
- Author:
- Kawa Hassan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The Kurdistan region of Iraq enjoys more stability, economic development, and political pluralism than the rest of the country. And public opinion under the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) demands rule-of-law-based governance. But power is concentrated in the hands of the ruling parties and families, who perpetuate a nondemocratic, sultanistic system. These dynamics could foster instability in Kurdistan and its neighborhood, but could also provide a rare window of opportunity for democratization.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Economics, Political Economy, Governance, and Authoritarianism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan
3. The Kurds in the spotlight: local and regional challenges
- Author:
- Ana Villellas
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- The Kurds in Syria, Turkey and Iraq face complex challenges. Among the current Kurdish realities, the emergence of Kurdish self-governing areas in northern Syria controlled by what is considered to be the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) generates considerable uncertainty. The complex civil war in Syria and antagonism between the Kurdish Democratic Union Party and a fragmented Kurdish political spectrum generate many questions as to the future of these Kurdish areas in Syria. In the case of Turkey, old and new internal and regional factors have threatened the dialogue under way between Turkey and the PKK. These include the lack of clear state policies to resolve the conflict, Turkey's current internal crisis, the complications of cross-border dynamics, and the mutual impact of the Kurdish questions in Syria and Turkey. In Iraq, tensions continue between the Kurdistan Regional Government and the country's central administration. The consolidation of Kurdish autonomy – with new elements such as the energy agreement between Erbil and Ankara – continues to generate uncertainty in a context where many issues remain unresolved.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Economics, and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
4. Baghdad-KRG Negotiations: Closer Than Ever to a Fair Deal
- Author:
- Michael Knights
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Baghdad's promising offer on oil exports and revenues could provide vital breathing room to build a permanent revenue-sharing law, and Washington should encourage the Iraqi Kurds to sign on. On February 16, the Iraqi central government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) will hold another round of negotiations on oil exports and revenue sharing, the fifth such meeting since December 25. With passage of Iraq's 2014 budget delayed by the talks, all parties have a strong interest in striking a deal. Fortunately, such an agreement now stands a better chance of sticking than ever before.
- Topic:
- Economics, Treaties and Agreements, and Ethnic Government
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Arabia
5. The Underlying Causes of Stability and Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: An Analytic Survey
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman, Nicholas S. Yarosh, and Chloe Coughlin-Schulte
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The political dynamics and violence that shape the current series of crises in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) – and daily events in Bahrain Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Tunisia, Syria, and Yemen – dominate the current course of virtually every aspect of these states including much of the current course of violence and instability in the region. Political dynamics and the current levels of, however, are only part of the story.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Democratization, Development, Economics, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Tunisia
6. The FY2013 Defense Budget, the Threat of Defense Cuts and Sequestration and the Strategy-Reality Gap
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Robert M. Shelala II
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The US may not face peer threats in the near to mid term, but it faces a wide variety of lesser threats that make maintaining effective military forces, foreign aid, and other national security programs a vital national security interest. The US does need to reshape its national security planning and strategy to do a far better job of allocating resources to meet these threats. It needs to abandon theoretical and conceptual exercises in strategy that do not focus on detailed force plans, manpower plans, procurement plans, and budgets; and use its resources more wisely. The US still dominates world military spending, but it must recognize that maintaining the US economy is a vital national security interest in a world where the growth and development of other nations and regions means that the relative share the US has in the global economy will decline steadily over time, even under the best circumstances. At the same time, US dependence on the security and stability of the global economy will continue to grow indefinitely in the future. Talk of any form of "independence," including freedom from energy imports, is a dangerous myth. The US cannot maintain and grow its economy without strong military forces and effective diplomatic and aid efforts. US military and national security spending already places a far lower burden on the US economy than during the peaceful periods of the Cold War, and existing spending plans will lower that burden in the future. National security spending is now averaging between 4% and 5% of the GDP -- in spite of the fact the US has been fighting two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan -- versus 6-7% during the Cold War.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Economics, Government, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Iraq
7. The FY2013 Defense Budget, Deficits, Cost-Escalation, and Sequestration
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Robert Shelala II
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The US may not face peer threats in the near to mid term, but it faces a wide variety of lesser threats that make maintaining effective military forces, foreign aid, and other national security programs a vital national security interest. The US does need to reshape its national security planning and strategy to do a far better job of allocating resources to meet these threats. It needs to abandon theoretical and conceptual exercises in strategy that do not focus on detailed force plans, manpower plans, procurement plans, and budgets; and use its resources more wisely. The US still dominates world military spending, but it must recognize that maintaining the US economy is a vital national security interest in a world where the growth and development of other nations and regions means that the relative share the US has in the global economy will decline steadily over time, even under the best circumstances. At the same time, US dependence on the security and stability of the global economy will continue to grow indefinitely in the future. Talk of any form of “independence,” including freedom from energy imports, is a dangerous myth. The US cannot maintain and grow its economy without strong military forces and effective diplomatic and aid efforts. US military and national security spending already places a far lower burden on the US economy than during the peaceful periods of the Cold War, and existing spending plans will lower that burden in the future. National security spending is now averaging between 4% and 5% of the GDP – in spite of the fact the US has been fighting two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan – versus 6-7% during the Cold War.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Asia
8. Refugees and IDPs after Conflict: Why They Do Not Go Home
- Author:
- Patricia Weiss Fagan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Programs to return refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) to their homes after conflict, implemented by national authorities with international support, frequently leave far too many without viable futures. The measures are often inadequate for three reasons: a widely shared but flawed assumption that the need to create a future for returnees is satisfied by restoring them to their prior lives; a lack of long-term engagement by implementing authorities; and a focus on rural reintegration when many refugees and IDPs are returning to urban areas. These arguments are illustrated in four country cases—Bosnia, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Burundi. In each case, the places that refugees and IDPs were forced to flee have been greatly reshaped. They often lack security and economic opportunities; governance is weak and services are inadequate. Returnees have made choices about their futures in large part on the basis of these factors. While reclaiming land or receiving compensation for losses is important, the challenge for many returnees is to settle where they can maintain sustainable livelihoods; find peaceful living conditions; have access to health care, education, and employment opportunities; and enjoy full rights of citizenship. This may mean a move from rural to urban areas and a change in the source of income generation that has to be accounted for in the design of reintegration programs. Returning refugees and IDPs should be assisted for a sufficient amount of time to determine which location and livelihood will suit them best. For international organizations, this may involve greater creativity and flexibility in supporting returnees in urban settings. To accommodate inflows of returnees and their general mobility, national and local governments should develop urban planning strategies to manage the growth of their cities, coupled with regional development plans in rural areas that may involve investment in commercial agriculture. Linking rural and urban areas by strengthening government institutions can also provide returnees with more livelihood options and promote development.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Refugee Issues, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, Bosnia, Middle East, Balkans, and Burundi
9. The Coming Turkish-Iranian Competition In
- Author:
- Sean Kane
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The two rising powers in the Middle East—Turkey and Iran—are neighbors to Iraq, its leading trading partners, and rapidly becoming the most influential external actors inside the country as the U.S. troop withdrawal proceeds. Although there is concern in Washington about bilateral cooperation between Turkey and Iran, their differing visions for the broader Middle East region are particularly evident in Iraq, where a renewal of the historical Ottoman-Persian rivalry in Mesopotamia is likely as the dominant American presence fades. Turkey aims for a robust Iraqi political process in which no single group dominates, sees a strong Iraq as contributing to both its own security and regional stability, and is actively investing in efforts to expand Iraqi oil and gas production to help meet its own energy needs and fulfill its goal of becoming the energy conduit from the Middle East to Europe. Iran prefers a passive neighbor with an explicitly sectarian political architecture that ensures friendly Shiite-led governments; sees a strong Iraq as an inherent obstacle to its own broader influence in the region and, in the nightmare scenario, once again possibly a direct conventional military threat; and looks askance at increased Iraqi hydrocarbon production as possible competition for its own oil exports. Baghdad meanwhile believes that it can become a leader in the Middle East but is still struggling to define an inclusive national identity and develop a foreign policy based on consensus. In its current fractured state, Iraq tends to invites external interference and is subsumed into the wider regional confrontation between the Sunni Arab defenders of the status quo and the “resistance axis” led by Shiite Iran. Turkey has an opening in Iraq because it is somewhat removed from this toxic Arab-Persian divide, welcomes a strong Iraq, and offers the Iraqi economy integration with international markets. Ankara could now allay Iraqi Shiite suspicions that it intends to act as a Sunni power in the country and not allow issues on which Turkish and Iraqi interests deviate to set the tone for their relationship. The U.S. conceptualization of an increased Turkish influence in Iraq as a balance to Iran's is limited and could undermine Turkey's core advantages by steering it towards a counterproductive sectarian approach. A more productive U.S. understanding is of Turkey as a regional power with the greatest alignment of interests in a strong, stable, and selfsufficient country that the Iraqis want and that the Obama administration has articulated as the goal of its Iraq policy. On the regional level, a strong and stable Iraq is a possible pivot for Turkish and Iranian ambitions, enabling Ankara and hindering Tehran. Washington may well have its differences with Turkey's new foreign policy of zero problems with its neighbors, but the Turkish blend of Islam, democracy, and soft power is a far more attractive regional template than the Iranian narrative of Islamic theocracy and hard power resistance. The United States should therefore continue to welcome increased Turkish-Iraqi economic, trade, and energy ties and where possible support their development as a key part of its post-2011 strategy for Iraq and the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Imperialism, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
10. Economic Challenges in Post-Conflict Iraq
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Economics are as important to Iraq's stability and political accommodation as security and governance, and they are equally critical to creating a successful strategic partnership between Iraq and the United States. It is far from easy, however, to analyze many of the key factors and trends involved. Iraqi data are weak and sometimes absent. U.S. and Coalition forces generally failed to look in detail at many of Iraq's most serious economic problems, or they issued heavily politicized reports designed to show that Iraqi “reconstruction” had been far more successful than it really was.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
11. The USA-Turkey Relationship After the 2003 Iraq Crisis
- Author:
- Şûle Anlar Güneş
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
- Abstract:
- Turkey and the USA have been strategic allies since declaration of Truman Doctrine in 1947. This strategic partnership got worse due to the USA‘s politics towards Middle East after 9-11 tragedy and Turkey’s new changing domestic political situation through AKP in 2002. Specifically, 2003 Iraq crisis was milestone to decline the relationship between Turkey and the USA. In spite of deterioration of relationship, Turkey and the USA had to overcome this problem due to security, foreign, and economic concerns of both countries, and the process have advanced as expected. In this article, the US-Turkey relationship will be examined in the contexts of recent Iraq crisis, Turkey’s new approach to foreign policy, NATO, war on terrorism, European Union, and economic concerns in order to comprehend the new era of Turkey-US strategic partnership.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Economics, European Union, Crisis Management, and War on Terror
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
12. The Economic Condition of Displaced Iraqis Living in Jordan: A Study of Vocational Training
- Author:
- Farah Thalji
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
- Abstract:
- The Iraqi War has garnered international attention as a traumatic conflict in many respects. Rising death tolls, expensive military operations, internal fragmentation and civilian suffering have all become hallmarks of the ongoing conflict. This often overshadows the distress of Iraqis scattered to neighboring countries by the war. This report focuses the lens on displaced Iraqis who have fled to the neighboring Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan to seek refuge. Refugees are used as the instrument for measuring the impact of the conflict and its residuals on others in the region. The subsequent goal is to demonstrate the rippling effect of conflict in such a manner that goes beyond the surface to the longer-term effects that are often overlooked by the media in favor of shocking short-term events. One problem Iraqis face in Jordan is economic survival. There is a pervasive attitude that Jordan only harbors wealthy Iraqis. While this stereotype may apply to some Iraqis, it is certainly not a reality for many –particularly considering that seven years have passed since the start of the war and personal funds have been depleting. One of the troubles that Iraqis in Jordan now face is the inability to participate in the labor force due to legal restrictions. With an estimated population of somewhere between 450,000 to 700,000 Iraqis amongst Jordan’s population of 6 million, this poses a serious problem. An assessment of the situation attempts to understand the Iraqi effort for survival by focusing on vocational training and support for displaced Iraqis. The goal of such an effort is to capture the Iraqi attempt to transition into the labor market in Jordan. It also reflects that economic involvement in the Jordanian economy is becoming increasingly necessary as security continues to remain an issue in Iraq and the fear of return persists. Discussing the political and legal as well as the social status of Iraqis in Jordan forms a necessary foundation for the study of their economic situation and the subsequent merit of vocational training programs.2
- Topic:
- Economics, Refugees, Displacement, and Vocational Training
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Jordan
13. Gain Seeking in a "Double Security Dilemma": The Case of OPEC
- Author:
- Ellinor Zeino-Mahmalat
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- The remarkable stability of the cooperation among the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has generally been explained by these members' mutual dependency on high and stable oil revenues. Since the OPEC countries, however, face the double security dilemma of both domestic and external security threats, they are not simply eager to secure (absolute) oil revenues for the sake of domestic stability; they are also sensitive to the (relative) oil revenues of their competing or even conflicting partners. The existing approaches of rational egoism and defensive positionalism have proven to be rather inadequate in explaining this kind of gain-seeking behavior. This paper therefore develops the new theoretical approach of “gain-seeking mentalities,” with the objective of tracing variations in OPEC members' gain-seeking behaviors. Using this approach, the empirical assessment of Iran and Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War and Iraq during the Gulf War of 1990/91 shows the extent to which Iran and Iraq altered their gain-seeking behavior as a result of a changing constellation of threats.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Intelligence, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, and Middle East
14. The Economic Costs of the Iraq War: An Appraisal Three Years after the Beginning of the Conflict
- Author:
- Linda Bilmes and Joseph Stiglitz
- Publication Date:
- 02-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Three years ago, as America was preparing to go to war in Iraq, there were few discussions of the likely costs. When Larry Lindsey, President Bush's economic adviser, suggested that they might reach $200 billion, there was a quick response from the White House: that number was a gross overestimation. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz claim e d that Iraq could “really finance its own reconstruction,” apparently both underestimating what was required and the debt burden facing the country. Lindsey went on to say that “The successful prosecution of the war would be good for the economy.”
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, America, and Middle East
15. Fragile States and U.S. Foreign Assistance: Show Me the Money
- Author:
- Stewart Patrick and Kaysie Brown
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The Bush administration has increasingly acknowledged that weak and failing states represent the core of today's global development challenge. It has also recognized that such states are potential threats to international peace and security. But despite the rhetoric, it has yet to formulate a coherent strategy around fragile states or commit adequate resources towards engaging them. Excluding funding for Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and HIV/AIDS, the administration's FY07 budget request proposes to spend just $1.1 billion in direct bilateral assistance to fragile states—little more than a dollar per person per year. In this new working paper, CGD research fellow Stewart Patrick and program associate Kaysie Brown urge U.S. policymakers to consider increasing aid to fragile states and to think creatively about how and when to engage these troubled countries. The authors also call for the policy community to integrate non-aid instruments into a more coherent government strategy. To put its money where its mouth is, the U.S. should treat aid to weak and failing states as a form of venture capital, with high risk but potentially high rewards.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Humanitarian Aid
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Iraq
16. The Economics of Young Democracies: Policies and Performance
- Author:
- Nathan Converse and Ethan Kapstein
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Since the “third wave” of democratization began in 1974, nearly 100 states have adopted democratic forms of government, including, of course, most of the former Soviet bloc nations. Policy-makers in the west have expressed the hope that this democratic wave will extend even further, to the Middle East and onward to China. But the durability of this new democratic age remains an open question. By some accounts, at least half of the world's young democracies—often referred to in the academic literature as being “unconsolidated” or “fragile”—are still struggling to develop their political institutions, and several have reverted back to authoritarian rule. Among the countries in the early stages of democratic institution building are states vital to U.S. national security interests, including Afghanistan and Iraq.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, China, and Iraq
17. Managing Natural Resource Wealth
- Author:
- Jill Shankleman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- This report analyzes the particular challenges of stabilization and reconstruction missions in countries rich in hydrocarbons and minerals and provides lessons learned from the recent experience of such countries as Iraq, Sudan, Angola, Liberia, and Afghanistan. It offers recommendations for the U.S. government and others involved in natural resource–rich countries emerging from conflict and also to the extractive industry companies and banking sectors––that play a critical role in these states. War-torn countries rich in hydrocarbons and minerals face particular problems in the stabilization and reconstruction of their states despite the apparent promise that natural resource wealth holds. Unless deliberate efforts are made to avoid the “resource curses”—corruption, economic instability, conflict over the distribution of resource wealth and control of resource–rich areas—these curses will undermine peace building. Elite groups who receive royalties and taxes paid by extractive industry companies have shown themselves consistently resistant to democratization. Control over natural resources is fundamental to sovereignty. Ultimately, it is the governments and people of resource–rich countries who must put in place the systems that enable resource wealth to support stability and development However, through early and consistent action, the international community can play an important role in helping resource–rich states emerging from conflict manage the wealth that accrues from these resources, and can make proper wealth management a condition for donor assistance. It is essential that international missions and indigenous transitional governments immediately secure effective control of natural resource wealth (physical and monetary) and establish the laws, institutions, and capacity to manage that wealth transparently, accountably, and in ways that support reconstruction. Achieving these goals requires prior planning by relevant U.S. agencies, a willingness to confront vested interests, a consistent approach from the international community and donors, the involvement of civil society, and the deployment of human resources, such as forensic accountants able to “follow the money,” as part of the mission staff. To be successful, the extractive industries and their bankers, the international financial institutions, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) must be brought into this process
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Environment
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Sudan, Middle East, Liberia, and Angola
18. The United States Needs German Economic Leadership
- Author:
- Adam S. Posen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- On January 13, Germany's new chancellor, Angela Merkel, will have her first official visit with US President George W. Bush. Washington, or at least the part of Washington that still pays attention to transatlantic issues, not just the Bush administration, will be glad to see her given that she is not her US-bashing predecessor Gerhard Schroeder. Though this change in atmosphere is welcome, no one should make too much of it. It is unlikely to make much difference on security issues, where Iran's own actions are forcing the United States and Germany to come together, where German public opinion will keep the governments apart on Iraq, and where neither country is prepared to make major changes to defense budgets and approaches. The Masri case will certainly limit Merkel's interest in appearing too chummy with Bush on security matters.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Washington, and Germany
19. Iraqi Economic Reconstruction and Development
- Author:
- Onur Ozlu
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The US aid effort in Iraq has not accomplished most of its sectoral goals, and more importantly, has not effectively initiated the reconstruction of the country's economy. After three years of struggle, the expenditure of more than $ 20 billion US aid funds, $ 37 billion Development Fund for Iraq (DFI) - UN accumulated from the oil for food program's revenues and the seizure of bank accounts- and death of thousands of US and other coalition soldiers and tens of thousands of Iraqis, Iraq is producing less oil, has less electricity and less water than it did during the Saddam period. After studying the modern Iraqi economic history as a background, this work analyzes why.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Humanitarian Aid
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Maryland
20. Iran and the New Geopolitics of Oil - an Annotated Bibliograhy
- Author:
- Luke Patey
- Publication Date:
- 09-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Since its revolutionary birth in 1979, the Islamic Republic of Iran has had a turbulent existence in international relations. From the US hostage crisis to the Iran-Iraq War to the current provocative development of its nuclear program, the short history of the Islamic Republic of Iran has been characterized by its volatile foreign politics. In fact, this is a feature very much resemblant of the country's tumultuous past, born from both its immense energy resources and its geo-strategic location. Regardless if Iran was under the rule of a Shah or the ultimate power of an Ayatollah, since the discovery of oil in the early 1900s, Iran's generous natural endowments have created an intimate link between itself and geopolitical competition.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Iran