Content Type: Working Paper / Political Geography: Global Focus / Topic: International Cooperation

1. Mitigating Global Fragmentation in Digital Trade Governance: A Case Study

Author:: Douglas Lippoldt
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Digital trade is growing rapidly, and regulators are trying to keep up. Concerns about privacy, consumer protection and national security demand regulatory attention, but too much regulation risks stifling digital trade. Current-generation trade agreements need to find the right balance between regulatory and liberal approaches to e-commerce. This paper looks at how five leading digital economies (Canada, the European Union, Japan, Singapore and the United States) are using regional trade agreements to address concerns while enhancing trade.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Governance, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2. Could a Global “Wicked Problems Agency” Incentivize Data Sharing?

Author:: Susan Ariel Aaronson
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Global data sharing could help solve “wicked” problems (problems such as climate change, terrorism and global poverty that no one knows how to solve without creating further problems). There is no one or best way to address wicked problems because they have many different causes and manifest in different contexts. By mixing vast troves of data, policy makers and researchers may find new insights and strategies to address these complex problems. National and international government agencies and large corporations generally control the use of such data, and the world has made little progress in encouraging cross-sectoral and international data sharing. This paper proposes a new international cloud-based organization, the "Wicked Problems Agency," to catalyze both data sharing and data analysis in the interest of mitigating wicked problems. This organization would work to prod societal entities — firms, individuals, civil society groups and governments — to share and analyze various types of data. The Wicked Problems Agency could provide a practical example of how data sharing can yield both economic and public good benefits.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Governance, Data, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3. How Authoritarian Regimes Counter International Sanctions Pressure

Author:: Christian von Soest
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: Based on current literature, this paper analyses the nature and effects of external pressure imposed on authoritarian regimes. Around three-quarters of all countries under United Nations, United States, and European Union sanctions are authoritarian, and “democracy sanctions” that aim at improving democratic and human rights in targeted countries constitute the biggest sanctions category. Yet, authoritarian regimes represent particularly problematic targets as they can more easily shield themselves from external pressure than their democratic counterparts can. Authoritarians have a tighter grip on the public discourse and the struggle over the meaning of sanctions. They often even use them to their own advantage, denouncing sanction senders as “imperialist” and blaming them for their economic woes. The paper presents trends in the application of sanctions pressure against authoritarian regimes, reviews mechanisms of how economic and diplomatic restrictions work, and examines authoritarian targets’ attempts to engage in pressure proofing.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Sanctions, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4. The White Paper on the Future of Environmental Peacebuilding

Author:: Oli Brown and Nicolucci-Altman-Giuliana
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The term ‘White Paper’ is typically used in government circles to denote a publicly available, balanced document designed to help readers make decisions. This white paper seeks to encourage debate and discussion over the challenges, opportunities, and possibilities for environmental peacebuilding in conflict-affected states and societies. The paper and compendium are the product of a global conversation about the future of environmental peacebuilding and they draw from extensive academic work and practical experience. This white paper is inspired by many voices. Though concise, the white paper hopes to emphasize the growing assortment of approaches, ideas and visions for the future of environmental peacebuilding. The white paper is divided into four parts. The first gathers perspectives on the global context of environmental peacebuilding. The second points to some of the key challenges to environmental peacebuilding practice, while part three highlights important opportunities to harness the environment for peace. The fourth presents an agenda for the future of environmental peacebuilding.
Topic:: Security, Environment, International Cooperation, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5. Peace and Security 2025

Author:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The exact nature of the peace and security environment of 2025 is, of course, unknown, but we have information available to us today and yesterday’s experience to guide us in our attempts to imagine what the key features of that environment might be. This teaches us that surprises will continue to happen. Our attempt to identify what 2025 will look like could simply stop here, and we could approach the next few years day by day and month by month, establish our strategic plans, and constantly adjust them in response to new circumstances as they arise. However, we can go a step further and use strategic foresight to help us creatively and systematically explore how that future may unfold and consider collectively the alternatives available to us for dealing with what happens and its implications. This publication takes the latter approach by asking the authors to determine a vision for particular global regions and realistically and concretely assess how we can achieve this vision (Part I), and present suggestions for how we as professionals in the peace and security domain can collaborate to respond as effectively as possible to the challenges of the next few years (Part II). In that sense, the analysis and suggestions presented here balance realism about the challenges ahead with a proactive and constructive perspective on how best to confront them. It is with this in mind that the subheading of this publication is “disrupted visions and resilient approaches”.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Peace, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Global Focus

6. The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the Global Sanctions Landscape

Author:: Ali Ahmadi
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The Russia-Ukraine conflict will accelerate the global trend towards increasing great power competition that pits the existing West-anchored world order against others, especially Russia and China. This new era will have significant implications for the global sanctions landscape as sanctions that have been effective in harming countries with smaller economies are increasingly focused on larger economic powers that are integrated into the global economy. This will carry a far greater risk of diminishing the effectiveness of the sanctions weapon, because larger economies like that of China have a greater capacity to overcome technology export restrictions and the US dollar’s centrality in global finance. While sanctions campaigns often seek to coerce the target state into policy modification, sanctions may be increasingly used for the purpose of economic containment by attempting to retard the long-term economic development of states. This may result in open-ended sanctions campaigns that will generate a new era of geoeconomics where sanctions risk factors become key to the design of business relationships and supply chains. The use of financial sanctions against larger economies will exacerbate already existing trends of de-banking and a decline in corresponding banking relationships. Technology sanctions and export controls will be increasingly central as sanction-imposing countries in the West seek to leverage their superiority in key emerging technologies against those they perceive to be their adversaries.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Sanctions, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Global Focus

7. Food Insecurity Beyond Borders: Untangling the Complex Impacts of Ukraine War on Global Food Security

Author:: Jose Montesclaros and Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Conflict has historically influenced food insecurity within countries. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is of a different nature, as it is worsening food insecurity in other countries too, thereby undermining global food security. This NTS insight untangles the dynamics of conflict-induced food insecurity beyond borders amid the ongoing war. Today’s conflict poses an unprecedented challenge to global food security given its timing, with countries inheriting fiscal challenges from previous bouts with the COVID-19 pandemic; concurrent disruptions to food and energy supply chains; and worsening climate threats to agriculture. Should the war be protracted, the world risks further instability through cost-of-living crises and food price crises. World leaders should therefore carefully weigh these risks, as they deliberate their stances in putting an end to the war.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Food, Food Security, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8. Is Doughnut Economics a Means Towards Achieving Planetary Health?

Author:: Jonathan Ramakrishna
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: With the advent of climate change, the global focus is no longer lingering alone on climate change mitigation and has shifted towards climate adaptation as well. The 2015 Paris Agreement’s target of restricting the average temperature rise in the 21st century to well below two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels is increasing unlikely, given the inaction of states and the global lack of progress in meeting Paris Agreement goals. As nations scramble to meet Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and effectively design climate policies, the global crisis has given rise to a new domain, Planetary Health. Planetary Health, an interdisciplinary field, is described as a solutions-focused discipline which aims to analyse, mitigate, and resolve human disruption to Earth’s natural systems in the new Anthropocene epoch. The Anthropocene epoch, on the other hand, is established as a geological climate where human activity is drastically altering earth’s systems to an extent that will be reflected in fossil records. Planetary Health inextricably links human health to the health of the planet and illustrates the interdependency of the two, and this relationship has been substantiated by findings which concur that countries with higher ecological threats concurrently experience greater social vulnerability. When climate-induced disasters occur due to human action, there are subsequent consequences on food, water, energy, and human security. The consequences are disproportionately felt by vulnerable communities in states that lack resources and capabilities to address the consequent impacts on human security, and climate instability is a driving force behind political instability. Thus, there is cause for concern not only for the planet’s health but also for human health as the environment’s health continues to dwindle in the Anthropocene Epoch. As such, the concept of Planetary Health is a response to threatened climate security and human security.
Topic:: Economics, Health, International Cooperation, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9. Regulating the International Digital Economy, with Trade and Innovation in Mind

Author:: Douglas Lippoldt
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: The international digital economy is growing rapidly, and the fragmented governance framework is struggling to keep pace. Global entities such as the World Trade Organization and regional trade agreements offer a patchwork approach to governance. This paper illustrates the importance of governance in relation to private-sector innovation and recommends next steps to enhance governance, close gaps and promote further innovation. Better definition and international alignment of the framework for governance of digital trade and data could lead to greater privacy, trust and security.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Regulation, Digital Economy, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10. After the Allocation: What Role for the Special Drawing Rights System?

Author:: Tobias Pforr, Fabian Pape, and Steffen Murau
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: In August 2021, the IMF made a new SDR allocation to help ease pandemic-induced financial strains in the Global South. This paper assesses the potential of the SDR system to address debt- related problems in global finance. We analyze the SDR system as a web of interlocking balance sheets whose members can use SDR holdings—the system’s tradable assets—for conversion into usable currency as a perpetual low-interest loan or to make payments to each other. Using original IMF data, we study how the system has been practically used since 1990. Though widely perceived as a solution in search of a problem in the post-Bretton Woods era, we find that the SDR system provides three mechanisms through which IMF members borrow and lend usable currency to each other, with different strings attached: first, transactions by agreement; second, the IMF’s core lending facilities for which the SDR system offers additional resources; and third, IMF-sponsored Trusts which seek to harness the SDR system for development purposes and are the basis for the current idea of ‘voluntary channeling’. Overall, given the SDR system’s idiosyncratic accounting rules, the new allocation can improve the liquidity position of a country and offer some limited avenues for sovereign debt restructuring but comes with new interest and exchange rate risks. Voluntary channeling cannot happen without a wealth transfer, neither the SDR allocation nor the use of Trusts can overcome this problem. Still, Trusts can be a useful instrument to help with debt forgiveness and to ensure that borrowed funds are used for their intended purpose.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, Finance, and IMF
Political Geography:: Global Focus

11. Climate Finance Effectiveness: Six Challenging Trends

Author:: Beata Cichocka and Ian Mitchell
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: This paper identifies and explores a number of challenges in using international public climate finance effectively towards contributing to low-carbon and resilient growth in lower- and middle-income countries. We explore key quantitative and qualitative trends in the climate finance architecture, including predictability of disbursements, affordability and concessionality of funding, provider proliferation and project fragmentation, implementation via modalities supporting recipient ownership, and the degree to which climate-related interventions are evaluated. Our research considers these trends against globally agreed principles of development effectiveness, with the aim of improving understandings of both the common and the climate-specific challenges within development finance. Ultimately, we find that climate-related development finance faces a number of challenges relative to other official development flows, including significantly lower disbursement ratios, a higher share of finance provided through debt instruments—and a rising share of loans to lower-income countries assessed as being at high risk of debt distress, a faster pace in proliferation of providers and shrinking project sizes, and fewer efforts to systematically evaluate impacts of interventions. Each of these areas will need to be tackled by public climate finance providers to ensure that the available funding is used towards climate objectives effectively. These and other issues related to the quality of climate finance should also be considered during the design of the new quantitative climate finance target under the UNFCCC to ensure that the structure of the goal promotes accountability and increases recipients’ ability to trust in the climate finance architecture.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Global Focus

12. A Global Development Paradigm for a World in Crisis

Author:: Rachael Calleja, Beata Cichocka, Mikaela Gavas, and Samuel Pleeck
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: This paper explores how and whether responses to COVID-19, particularly from non-DAC actors, have deepened the transition from an “international” to a “global” development paradigm, and it considers implications for the future of development cooperation. To do so, we map international responses to COVID-19—financial and beyond—to understand the changing nature of development challenges and cooperation as well as the growing role of non-DAC actors as part of this shift. Our analysis shows that while a diversity of actors contributed to international COVID-19 responses, the transition towards a global development paradigm has yet to materialize. Instead, responses to COVID-19 demonstrated clear tensions between the imperative for collaboration and the national interest, with the latter trumping the former.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13. What’s the Best Way to Bolster the IMF’s Capacity to Lend to Low-Income Countries?

Author:: David Andrews
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: The IMF’s concessional lending to low-income countries through its Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) has risen dramatically since the start of the pandemic and demand for the PRGT resources is expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels for quite some time. But the surge in lending has strained the PRGT's finances—loan resources have dwindled, subsidy costs have risen sharply, and reserves need bolstering. Projections show the risks to PRGT financing are accentuated given the Russian invasion of Ukraine and rising global interest rates. A multi-pronged decade-long effort is needed to ensure sound PRGT financing: (1) reinforce current fundraising efforts for loan and subsidy resources; (2) promote the use of the PRGT's deposit investment account; (3) terminate the reimbursement of PRGT administrative resources to the IMF's General Resources Account and (4) begin a discussion on IMF gold sales to take place in the out years. Each prong of the effort should start immediately, given the time lags involved in reaching consensus and implementation.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Finance, and IMF
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14. Development Effectiveness in the “New Normal”: What Do the Changing Roles and Purposes of ODA Mean for the Effectiveness Agenda?

Author:: Rachael Calleja and Beata Cichocka
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: This paper explores how the roles and purposes of official development assistance (ODA) are changing and what these shifts mean for the future of the development effectiveness agenda. Using data obtained through a survey of officials working in development agencies and partner countries, this paper maps perspectives on the changing role and purposes of ODA as well as perceptions of the continued relevance of the effectiveness agenda and the Busan principles in this changing development landscape. Our results show that providers are increasingly prioritizing global challenges and private sector development as main purposes of ODA, and that the catalytic role of ODA is becoming increasingly important. In spite of substantive changes to the development landscape, survey respondents overwhelmingly thought that the current effectiveness agenda remains relevant – however, they also expressed the need to revise or renew the effectiveness principles to keep pace with changing demands. Working from our survey responses, we propose a basic framework for considering options for the future of the effectiveness agenda and conclude by proposing four possible paths forward.
Topic:: Security, Development, International Cooperation, and Development Assistance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15. Country Platforms and Delivery of Global Public Goods

Author:: Daouda Sembene, Nancy Lee, and Mark Plant
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: This paper discusses three potential requirements for country platforms to facilitate effective delivery of GPGs. We propose that existing country platforms be repurposed to coordinate the contribution of domestic and external stakeholders to GPG delivery efforts at the country level. For this proposed approach to be successful, an explicit link must be introduced between country-level efforts and global initiatives to provide GPGs. There is also merit in setting up country and global coordination mechanisms, with relevant agencies assigned to operate them both at the national and international levels. Using relevant country platforms, we suggest that international financial institutions (IFIs) such as the IMF and multilateral development banks (MDBs) be mandated with helping developing countries meet the financing needs associated with the provision of GPGs. In addition, technical support from the IFIs should be put on the table to improve the effectiveness of developing countries’ contribution to GPG delivery. In this regard, MDBs can and must play a central role in developing capacities in these countries as part of their own contribution to GPG delivery. At the same time, securing the contribution of civil society and the private sector to GPG delivery efforts is essential given the magnitude of potential financing needs.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Finance, Multilateralism, IMF, and Public Goods
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16. The Belt and Road Initiative as Ten Policy Commandments: Review of Xi’s Kazakhstan and Indonesia Launch Speeches

Author:: Lauren A. Johnson
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:: In 2019 Foreign Policy described China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as “the most talked about and least defined buzzword of this decade”. Given that confusion and the importance of leader political speeches in China, especially those of current President Xi Jinping, it is surprising that the BRI literature has little in-depth analysed the two launch speeches of 2013. This article seeks to fill that gap with study of those speeches and focus on the five cooperationoriented areas announced in each. In comparative context those ten pillars appear not to be descended from New Era Chinese heaven but rather demonstrate substantive thematic overlap with the ten pillars of what was once relatively mainstream macroeconomic development policy, the Washington Consensus. Yet, in the case of the BRI there is a relative implicit implementation emphasis also. In forward context of contemporary global political economy tensions, the need to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, the G7’s Build Back Better and the European Union’s Global Gateway ambitions also, this article may offer a timely fresh and comparative lens on the BRI.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Infrastructure, Hegemony, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Global Focus

17. The Tenth NPT Review Conference: In the Shadow of Russian Aggression in Ukraine

Author:: Shimon Stein and Ephraim Asculai
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The 10th Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference is underway in New York, against the background of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in itself a gross violation of the treaty; Putin’s threat to resort to nuclear weapons; the deadlock in negotiations with Iran; and more. In these difficult circumstances, the participants will hopefully be able at the very least to issue a joint statement affirming the norms underlying the NPT
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

18. New Global Progress Survey Highlights the Major Challenges of Global Inflation

Author:: John Halpin
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The rising cost of living is hitting citizens everywhere.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Cooperation, and Inflation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

19. States Seek Treaty on Plastic Pollution

Author:: Szymon Zaręba
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: With negotiations likely to start later this year, a treaty supported by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is expected to make it possible to tackle the problem of plastic waste pollution, a transnational problem requiring international cooperation. The challenge will not be its adoption as much as its implementation, as it requires legislative action and investment by countries and business. However, it will benefit especially the environment, biodiversity, and human health. It is in Poland’s interest to negotiate flexible solutions and identify directions for national action.
Topic:: Environment, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, Pollution, and Plastic
Political Geography:: Poland and Global Focus

20. The Artemis Theory of Warfare

Author:: Mark J. Sundahl
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Outer space, long the province of peaceful competition and international cooperation, is being rapidly militarized. We stand today at a rare in8ection point in history that deserves careful thought as humanity moves forward. In short, we face the following choice: we can either protect and build on the special nature of space norms and customs to preserve space as a “laboratory of peace,” or we can militarize space as the new “highest ground” under largely the same rules that govern terrestrial warfare.1 4e sad reality is that our history, being inextricably linked to warfare, predicts that the dream of a peaceful future in space will almost certainly remain just that—a dream. 4at said, if you point out a problem, you should always propose a solution. I will propose a solution to the threat of warfare in space at the end of this article. But, before we get there, I will take a step back and explain some of the assertions above. Why do I call space a “laboratory of peace?” And why is this special status of outer space in jeopardy?
Topic:: International Cooperation, Space, Military, and New Generation Warfare
Political Geography:: Global Focus

21. How Can Multilateral Organizations Strengthen Global Data Governance Practices? Roundtable Summary

Author:: Michael Pisa and Ugonma Nwankwo
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: This brief is based on a roundtable hosted by CGD as part of the Governing Data for Development project, which explores how governments can use data to support innovation, development, and inclusive growth while protecting citizens and communities against harm. The views expressed here are those of the participants and do not necessarily represent the views of CGD staff. For other briefs in the series, as well as more on the project, visit cgdev.org/governing-data. Cross-border data flows are governed through a patchwork of complex, overlapping arrangements and trade agreements. The absence of a more systematic approach to data governance at the global level may make it harder for low- and middle-income countries to participate in the global digital economy and develop their own frameworks for governing the use of data in a responsible manner. It also leaves them with limited leverage in negotiations with both Big Tech companies and wealthier jurisdictions. This meeting is the third in a series of private roundtables convened by the Center for Global Development aimed at exploring the relationship between data governance and economic development. The first event examined whether current approaches to data protection and privacy are a good fit for resource-constrained countries. The second explored whether evolving digital trade rules support or hinder economic development. This third roundtable explored the role and limitations of multilaterals in promoting better data governance. This document summarizes key takeaways from the meeting, including the remarks of four keynote speakers and themes raised in a discussion among 30 experts, who are listed in the appendix. The roundtable was moderated by Pam Dixon, founder and executive director of the World Privacy Forum, and co-chair of the working group for CGD’s Governing Data for Development project.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Governance, Digital Economy, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

22. Some Unpleasant ODA Arithmetic

Author:: Ranil Dissanayake and Atousa Tahmasebi
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: Official development assistance is supposed to be designed to prioritise the economic development and welfare of developing countries. The OECD’s Development Assistance Committee is a club of wealthy donor countries which collaborate to set rules and norms to this effect. However, digging into the official data submitted by donors to the OECD reveals some unpleasant truths. We use data on every funding line reported by donors to the OECD between 2006 and 2019 to investigate the pattern and distribution of commitments and disbursements of ODA to developing countries, and discover that ODA is targeted poorly within the group of eligible developing countries; that this group of eligible countries is gradually expanding to include more relatively wealthy places; that aggregate ODA flows are organized and structured sub-optimally; and that ODA responds more to arbitrary income classifications than it should. We suggest informational and incentive reforms in response. These findings also suggest limits to what realistic reform of ODA can achieve, and, consequently, the importance of non-aid development policy for outcomes in developing countries.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Foreign Aid, and Welfare
Political Geography:: Global Focus

23. Ethical Recruitment of Health Workers: Using Bilateral Cooperation to Fulfill the World Health Organization’s Global Code of Practice

Author:: Michael Clemens and Helen Dempster
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: In a bid to better manage the increasing migration of health workers, in 2010 the World Health Organization (WHO) adopted its Global Code of Practice on the International Recruitment of Health Personnel. The Code has been misinterpreted by many as banning all recruitment from the 57 countries it deemed to have a “critical shortage” of health workers. But that is neither what the WHO intended, nor what the Code says. Recruitment from these countries was always allowed, even encouraged, as long as it was conducted under a mutually beneficial government-to-government agreement. In this policy paper, we outline how the WHO defined a “critical shortage” of health workers, both for the original Code and for its newly published Health Workforce Support and Safeguards List. The paper then goes onto explore how countries of migrant destination and origin can (and should) design ethical and sustainable health worker migration partnerships that fulfil the requirements of the Code.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Health Care Policy, Ethics, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Global Focus

24. Better Two Eyes than One: A Synthesis Classification of Exchange Rate Regimes

Author:: Cécile Couharde and Carl Grekou
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: This paper proposes a new de facto classification of exchange rate regimes, the synthesis classification. The proposed framework has several advantages over existing de facto classifications. First, it offers a unified framework based on the most divergent classifications, the RR and LYS classifications, leading not only to a broader coverage but also to encompass a broad spectrum of exchange systems. Second, it fits better with the known history of exchange rate regimes developments in the post-Bretton Woods era. Among others, it brings an interesting nuance to the so-called hollowing-out hypothesis by showing that the evolution of de facto regimes —especially in emerging economies since the late 1990s— has essentially involved movement toward more tightly “managed” intermediate regimes and not a shift away from such regimes. As an illustration of the insightfulness of our classification, we empirically revisit the nexus between currency crises and exchange rate regimes. In addition to associate a higher probability of currency crisis to both intermediate and floating regimes, our classification, also displays better statistical performances than other classifications in predicting currency crises.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Exchange Rate Policy, and Currency
Political Geography:: Global Focus

25. The Impact of Common Law on the Volume of Legal Services: An International Study

Author:: Enzo Dia and Jacques Melitz
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: We show that the heavy use of legal services relative to output in the US is not a peculiarity of the country but applies to common law countries in general. It stems largely from better ability to contract and easier access to justice. Yet in close association, common law also opens significantly more room for rentseeking by lawyers than civil law. Thereby the costs could outweigh the benefits. Both real GDP per capita and openness emerge as further factors making room for lawyers.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Law, Labor Issues, and Law
Political Geography:: Global Focus

26. Love of Variety and Gains from Trade

Author:: Christophe Gouel and Sébastien Jean
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: This paper shows how gains from trade are conditioned by love of variety, defined as the extent to which an additional product variety generates benefits in either final or intermediate consumption. We develop a multi-country, multisector gravity trade model where love of variety is parameterized separately from product substitutability using a generalized CES demand function, and show analytically how gains from trade depend on love of variety through different channels that we identify and interpret. In this context, except for very specific parameterizations, gains from trade differ between a heterogeneous- and a homogeneous-firm model. Counterfactual simulations based on a calibrated version of this model show that, all other things being equal, the assessed gains from trade commonly vary by a proportion of one to three depending on the value of the love-of-variety elasticity, in a way that differs significantly across countries. Trade war simulations also point to the strong sensitivity of the assessed impacts. We conclude that love of variety is a key determinant of the gains from trade, an aspect that has so far been overlooked for the sake of convenience in the modeling framework and due to lack of empirical estimates.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Trade Wars, and Models
Political Geography:: Global Focus

27. Free Trade Agreements and the Movement of Business People

Author:: Thierry Mayer, Hillel Rapoport, and Camilo Umana Dajud
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: Many of the measures to contain Covid-19 severely reduced business travel. Using provisions to ease the movement of business visitors in trade agreements, we show that removing barriers to the movement of business people promotes trade. To do this, we first document the increasing complexity of Free Trade Agreements. We then develop an algorithm that combines machine learning and text analysis techniques to examine the content of FTAs. We use the algorithm to determine which FTAs include provisions to facilitate the movement of business people and whether those provisions are included in dispute settlement mechanisms. Using these data and accounting for the overall depth of FTAs, we show that provisions facilitating business travel indeed facilitate business travel (but not permanent migration) and, eventually, increase bilateral trade flows.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Migration, Business, Free Trade, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

28. Scenarios for an impact assessment of global bioeconomy strategies: results from a co-design process

Author:: Ruth Delzeit, Tobias Heimann, Franziska Schunemann, and Mareike Soder
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: The replacement of fossil resources with renewable biomass in a bioeconomy is seen as a major contribution to climate change mitigation. This transformation will affect all members of society, making it crucial to consider the views of different stakeholders to ensure a socially acceptable transition towards a sustainable bioeconomy. To explore potential outcomes of bioeconomy strategies assuming different future pathways, a scenario analysis is a tool to inform decision-makers about policy impacts and trade-offs. The inter- and transdisciplinary research project “BioNex – The future of the biomass nexus” is the first project to develop bioeconomy scenarios together with stakeholders from politics, industry, and civil society in an iterative co-design process. As a result, three storylines describing diverging potential global futures are developed and quantified: Towards sustainability, business as usual, and towards resource depletion. The futures are driven by different assumptions on climate policy, cropland expansion, productivity growth in agriculture, prices of fossil energy, and consumption behaviour. Additionally, in the co-design process, three bioeconomy policies are developed: policy as usual, stronger development of the bioeconomy, and no policies. Besides presenting the results of the stakeholder workshops, this paper evaluates the strengths and shortcomings of a stakeholder approach in terms of policy-oriented research. According to the experience made within this study, it provides valuable insights for researchers and funding authorities they can use to optimise the employment of stakeholder-based research approaches.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Economy, Biology, and Models
Political Geography:: Global Focus

29. The Need for Local Governance of Global Commons: The Example of Blue Carbon Ecosystems

Author:: Christine Merk, Jonas Grunau, Marie-Catherine Riekhof, and Wilfried Rickels
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: To limit global warming to 1.5°C, vast amounts of CO2 will have to be removed from the atmosphere via Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR). Enhancing the CO2 sequestration of ecosystems will require not just one approach but a portfolio of CDR options, including so‐called nature‐based approaches alongside CDR options that are perceived as more technical. Creating a CDR “supply curve” would however imply that all carbon removals are considered to be perfect substitutes. The various co‐benefits of nature‐based CDR approaches militate against this. We discuss this aspect of nature‐based solutions in connection with the enhancement of blue carbon ecosystems (BCE) such as mangrove or seagrass habitats. Enhancing BCEs can indeed contribute to CO2 sequestration, but the value of their carbon storage is low compared to the overall contribution of their ecosystem services to wealth. Furthermore, their property rights are often unclear, i.e. not comprehensively defined or not enforced. Hence, payment schemes that only compensate BCE carbon sequestration could create tradeoffs at the expense of other important, often local, ecosystem services and might not result in socially optimal outcomes. Accordingly, one chance for preserving and restoring BCEs lies in the consideration of all services in potential compensation schemes for local communities. Also, local contexts, management structures, and benefit‐sharing rules are crucial factors to be considered when setting up international payment schemes to support the use of BCEs and other nature‐ or ecosystem‐based CDR. However, regarding these options as the only hope of achieving more CDR will very probably not bring about the desired outcome, either for climate mitigation or for ecosystem preservation. Unhalted degradation, in turn, will make matters worse due to the large amounts of stored carbon that would be released. Hence, countries committed to climate mitigation in line with the Paris targets should not hide behind vague pledges to enhance natural sinks for removing atmospheric CO2 but commit to scaling up engineered CDR.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, Governance, Global Warming, and Local
Political Geography:: Global Focus

30. Assessing Potential Effects of Development Cooperation on Inequality

Author:: Mario Negre
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: With inequality reduction now being officially and broadly recognised as a key development objective with its own Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 10), there is a need for simple, economical and quick methodologies with which to focus on this area and assess progress. This paper presents such a methodology, which allows a rough assessment of the potential impacts of development cooperation on income, consumption and wealth inequality. This is important, as a rigorous causal analysis of the contribution development cooperation makes to reducing a partner country’s inequality is complex and costly. First, the relative contribution of targeted development cooperation programmes and projects to the economies of partner countries tends to be small (though admittedly not in all cases). Second, a myriad of factors contribute to changes in inequality in any given country, and assessing the impact of all of them is a complex, imprecise, time-consuming and resource-intensive exercise.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Inequality, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

31. Global Access to COVID-19 Vaccines: Challenges in Production, Affordability, Distribution and Utilisation

Author:: Andreas Stamm, Christoph Strupat, and Anna-Katharina Hornidge
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing vaccination process calls for decisive, internationally coordinated and forward-looking action. We propose short-, medium- and long-term actions and emphasise that the political pressure for action should not only focus on short-term management, but on building long-term structures that are crucial to prepare for future epidemics or pandemics. Four key challenges need to be addressed in order to achieve global control of COVID-19 by using vaccines. First, vaccines need to be produced at scale; second, they should be priced affordably; third, they have to be allocated globally so that they are available where needed; and fourth, they have to be deployed and utilised in local communities. Challenges in production are producing some of the main bottlenecks, but the others – in particular vaccine scepticism and utilisation – need to be considered early enough to enable smooth global vaccination campaigns. Addressing the four key challenges, we recommend the following short, medium- and long-term actions. In the short term, we advise accelerating global vaccination efforts by scaling up financial support for the COVAX initiative. In the medium term, we suggest establishing regional production centres in priority countries, providing the necessary intellectual property through voluntary patent pools and fostering information campaigns and civil society participation to increase vaccination willingness and utilisation. In the long term, we recommend establishing Global Pandemic Centres of Excellence in all world regions – analogous to the CGIAR system in the agricultural sector – that are responsible for medical research, vaccine production, distribution and delivery.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Vaccine, COVID-19, and Coordination
Political Geography:: Global Focus

32. Mainstreaming South-South and Triangular Cooperation: Work in Progress at the United Nations

Author:: Sebastian Haug
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: South-South cooperation has become an increasingly visible part of international development processes. Together with the expansion of triangular cooperation – that is, cooperation among developing countries supported by a traditional donor or multilateral organisation – the growing clout of South-South schemes reflects shifts in power and wealth towards the former developing world. Against this backdrop, United Nations (UN) entities have repeatedly been asked to mainstream their support for South-South and triangular cooperation (SSTC), but there is hardly any systematic comparative evidence on whether and how they have done so. This paper addresses this gap in three steps. First, it traces the rise and evolution of South-South terminology at the UN, showing that the use of North-South frames had its origins in debates about international inequalities in the 1960s and has expanded in the context of globalisation processes since the 1970s, and also that it is developing countries themselves that have taken up and rallied behind notions of South-South. The paper provides an overview of three partly complementary and partly contradictory approaches that understand South-South cooperation to be a set of technical cooperation modalities; a general political narrative; or a shorthand for inter-state cooperation beyond North-South assistance, with the latter being the dominant de facto understanding among UN entities. Second, the analysis focuses on UN efforts over the last two decades aimed at mainstreaming support for SSTC. It centres around a scorecard of 15 UN entities that maps their level of institutional focus on SSTC, based on insights from strategies, annual reports, publications, monitoring frameworks, budgets and organisational structures. Based on the scorecard, UN entities are grouped under the tentative labels of “champions”, “waverers” and “stragglers” for mapping patterns of SSTC mainstreaming. Third, the paper identifies three key factors that, in addition to beliefs in the functional relevance and potential effectiveness of SSTC, have accompanied and conditioned UN mainstreaming efforts. SSTC support has been part of (a) strategic considerations for positioning UN entities in an evolving funding environment; (b) internal bureaucratic dynamics that centre around individuals and shape day-to-day engagement; and (c) geopolitical tensions connected to the increasingly visible fracture between the United States and China. Traditional donors, in particular, tend to approach South-South cooperation as an umbrella for the expansion of China’s clout across the UN development system, leading to an intensification of SSTC-related contestations. Overall, support for South-South and triangular cooperation has had a long, multi-faceted, expanding and increasingly controversial trajectory at the UN. With reference to areas of future research and policy recommendations, the paper suggests that UN entities – in coordination with member states – are well advised to expand their efforts for exploring how to best support cooperation that unfolds outside traditional North-South assistance schemes.
Topic:: International Cooperation, United Nations, and International Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

33. TRIPS-Past to TRIPS-Plus: Upholding the Balance between Exclusivity and Access

Author:: James Bacchus
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: A deadly global pandemic and other unique circumstances have combined to present the World Trade Organization (WTO) with an opportunity to modernize its rules for the trade-related aspects of intellectual property (IP) rights. The best place to begin is with a full realization of the negotiated balance between exclusivity and access in the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS Agreement). There is the need to turn the “TRIPS-past” of WTO IP rules agreed in 1995 into the “TRIPS-plus” of improved rules more fit to purpose for the twenty-first century. New rules are needed to help spark new innovations of all kinds and the rapid spread of those innovations worldwide, including rules relating to intangible assets and especially to digital expressions of IP. Continuing questions over the extent to which the TRIPS Agreement protects the exclusivity of IP rights in COVID-19 vaccines underscore how much uncertainty remains about where the line of this balance is in this multilateral trade agreement, and also how much doubt still exists about whether that line is in the right place.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Multilateralism, Pandemic, COVID-19, and WTO
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34. Could Trade Agreements Help Address the Wicked Problem of Cross-Border Disinformation?

Author:: Susan Ariel Aaronson
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Whether produced domestically or internationally, disinformation is a “wicked” problem that has global impacts. Although trade agreements contain measures that address cross-border disinformation, domestically created disinformation remains out of their reach. This paper looks at how policy makers can use trade agreements to mitigate disinformation and spam while implementing financial and trade sanctions against entities and countries that engage in disseminating cross-border disinformation. Developed and developing countries will need to work together to solve this global problem.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Borders, and Disinformation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

35. Global Governance 2.0: The Collective Choreography of Cooperation

Author:: Poorti Sapatnekar
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:: Multi-stakeholder partnerships among states and non-state actors have become increasingly prevalent models for the delivery of global public goods. Various international organizations—particularly the United Nations entities—are pouring resources into large-scale efforts such as conferences and summits to promote partnerships. Are such efforts effective? If so, what is the causal mechanism at work? Analyzing all major UN conferences and summits on climate change in the 2000-2015 period, this study finds that contrary to conventional wisdom, only two were successful in driving the growth of climate partnerships. Six organizational attributes acted as conditions of success for these efforts, enabling a mechanism this study labels the collective choreography of cooperation. They are: (1) strategic timing; (2) leaders’ level convening; (3) emphasis on ambitious, cooperative commitments; (4) sectoral orientation; (5) subsidiarity; and (6) leadership with centralized decision-making. Effective collective choreography requires high level convening power and autonomy of the summit host. Among international organizations, only the UN Secretary-General has both these two attributes. Gaining sufficient autonomy on climate change without alienating key member states took decades, during which successive Secretaries-General engaged in ‘conference activism’ and expanded the range and breadth of their good offices to help overcome intergovernmental gridlock and steer towards constructive outcomes. Achieving the Paris Agreement goals is a global policy priority that requires exponential acceleration of climate partnerships across economic sectors during the first half of this century. A five-year choreography cycle led by the Secretary-General over the next thirty years, and coinciding with the Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement, could serve to achieve this policy priority. Four features of the climate problem have made it conducive to collective choreography that are more or less characteristic of many other global governance challenges. (1) There is dispersed control over causes of the problem and over possible solutions. (2) Economic and social benefits to non-state actors for engaging in voluntary cooperation on climate change exist or can be made to exist. (3) Barriers to cooperation exist in the form of high transaction costs, risks, and limited trust. (4) The problem is mature enough that multilateral solutions had already been attempted, without success thus far. As such, this paper provides a basis for further investigation into the potential to apply collective choreography to other global public goods.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, United Nations, Multilateralism, and Paris Agreement
Political Geography:: Global Focus

36. The Helsinki Process and its applicability: Towards regional security-building in the Persian Gulf

Author:: Mikael Wigell and Mika Aaltola
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The idea of a ‘Middle East Helsinki Process’ has been raised as a potential collective security mechanism to help avoid major political regressions and violent spirals. The Helsinki Process, known for reducing tensions between the Soviet Union and the West in the 1970s, can provide some useful lessons, but the region will have to develop its own model by drawing on past experiences and the region-specific threat perceptions and political needs. Non-interference, sovereignty and the protection of religious rights could serve as useful starting principles for regional security-building in the Middle East. Drawing on the lessons learnt from the Helsinki Process, specific recommendations for a possible Middle East Process would be as follows: i) establish a regional initiative for building a security architecture in the Persian Gulf inspired by the Helsinki Process and its institutionalization; ii) establish a channel for Track 1, state-to-state-level consultations; iii) focus on the basic security guarantees that are common to the Persian Gulf states; and iv) maximize regional ownership, but with external facilitation.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Global Focus

37. Taking stock of the UN at 75: Highs and lows in the shadow of great-power competition

Author:: Katja Creutz
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The UN has achieved its aims with variable results. Thus far, the world has been spared another devastating world war, but the UN is now expected to address varied existential threats. Without real commitment to multilateralism on the part of major powers, the organization faces a grim future.
Topic:: International Cooperation, United Nations, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

38. Coronavirus and Power: The Impact on International Politics

Author:: Sven Biscop
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: This will change everything. It is an understandable feeling. When people pass through an ordeal, they want to believe that when all is over there will be some compensation. Things may indeed change, but perhaps not as radically as may seem likely today in the midst of the crisis – and not all change will be for the better. What change could the corona crisis bring to international politics?
Topic:: International Cooperation, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

39. Central Bank Mandates, Sustainability Objectives and the Promotion of Green Finance

Author:: Simon Dikau and Ulrich Volz
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: This paper examines the extent to which addressing climate-related risks and supporting sustainable finance fit into the current set of central bank mandates and objectives. To this end, we conduct a detailed analysis of central bank mandates and objectives, using the IMF’s Central Bank Legislation Database, and compare these to current arrangements and sustainability-related policies central banks have adopted in practice. To scrutinise the alignment of mandates with climate-related policies, we differentiate between the impact of environmental factors on the conventional core objectives of central banking and a potential supportive role of central banks with regard to green finance and sustainability. Of the 135 central banks in our sample, only 12% have explicit sustainability mandates, while another 40% are mandated to support the government’s policy priorities, which in most cases include sustainability goals. However, given that climate risks can directly affect central banks’ traditional core responsibilities, most notably monetary and financial stability, even central banks without explicit or implicit sustainability objectives ought to incorporate climate-related physical and transition risks into their core policy implementation frameworks in order to efficiently and successfully safeguard macro-financial stability.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Finance, Green Technology, Sustainability, IMF, and Banking
Political Geography:: Global Focus

40. The COVID-19 pandemic: Scenarios to Understand the International Impact

Author:: International Institute for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 spread around the world in a matter of a few short months in 2020. Its long-term effects, as well as the ultimate duration and severity of the pandemic itself, are marked by deep uncertainty. While it is too early to forecast the consequences of COVID-19 with precision, it is possible to systematically explore plausible trajectories for the medium-term future. This research paper uses scenarios to address the following question: what could be the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global political, economic and military balance of power over the course of the next five years? The paper focuses on six clusters of drivers of change to build scenarios. In the realm of politics, the two clusters are governance and geopolitics. The governance cluster straddles the divide of domestic and international politics, combining social cohesion in societies, populism as a political force, the role of the state, nationalism and state capacity. The geopolitics cluster focuses on aspects of international leadership and alliances. In the economic arena, clusters formed around the themes of economic reordering and recovery. In the former, regionalism, protectionism, supply-chain dynamics and Chinese technological leadership are considered. In the latter, the pace of the recovery is set in the context of employment, public debt, finance and energy issues. In the military realm, drivers relating to armed conflict and to military posture were combined to form clusters. The armed-conflict cluster considers projections for threat perceptions, major-power war, conflict among middle powers and intra-state violence. Military posture is captured by examining issues around force projection, the digitisation of armed forces, defence-industrial dynamics, strategic stability and the role of nuclear weapons. Scenarios in this paper are not designed to predict the future, but they are meant to help bound the range of possible futures for which decision-makers may need to prepare. In the scenario Silver Linings, geopolitics in 2025 are characterised by cooperation and the recession of domestic governance challenges. The economic recovery was swift and comprehensive, and although the pandemic modified aspects of globalisation its basic tenets remained intact. Armed conflict of the inter-state and intra-state kind has declined, and military postures are increasingly driven by advanced technologies and a smaller number of overseas operations. In the Downfall scenario, a weakened societal fabric has generated governance challenges at home and geopolitics are characterised by conflict. Economic recovery following the collapse triggered by the pandemic remains slow and incomplete, and economic reordering leads to the fragmentation of pre-existing international ties at the state and commercial levels. Great-power war has become a realistic probability and growing state fragility brought about by the pandemic leads to an increase in armed conflict. The scenario Lost in Transition is full of countervailing forces introducing challenges and a sense of instability. In the realm of politics, the geopolitical situation is marred by conflict, but domestic governance structures are not particularly challenged. Economically, recovery is slow and there are attempts to decouple − leading to bifurcated economic activity − with each strand led by China and the United States respectively. Militarily, new alliances emerge but a key concern is the near-perfect storm that the pandemic has created for security and stability in Africa. The scenario Home Alone outlines a future world in which the economic recovery is highly uneven. Attempts to generate momentum for renewed international cooperation fail as great-power rivalries intensify – however, the European Union emerges as a more confident geopolitical actor. Globalisation is disrupted by a drive to create regional and local supply chains and China forces a bifurcation of production for some sectors. Armed conflict linked to state fragility increases markedly, while the ability and willingness of international actors to provide humanitarian assistance and crisis-management resources fall dramatically. The pandemic itself is an event of world-shattering proportions. Yet many of its political and military implications are likely to be evolutionary in nature. In the period considered here, the potential for radical change (and a break with past practice and assumptions) is perhaps greatest in the economic realm. Furthermore, the scenarios can be helpful in recognising courses of actions that appear to be robust in the sense that they would appear to yield beneficial results across a range of alternative futures. Of course, even ‘future history’ marches on and it will remain crucial to consider the impact of unfolding events to maintain a sense of the direction of travel. The scenario implications will be useful to policymakers seeking to identify particular developments that may be desirable or undesirable. This will in turn facilitate discussion about the levers available and the extent to which such developments can be influenced. The most important point to take away from a European perspective is that across the scenarios a coherent and cohesive Europe is a prerequisite to exploit opportunities and avoid becoming, if not the battleground, than at least the playground for the political and economic policies of others.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

41. The Strategic and Geo-economic Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:: International Institute for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 will have enduring effects on geopolitics and geo-economics in the Middle East, the Gulf and beyond. In this IISS Manama Dialogue 2020 Special Publication we explore the regional and global implications of the pandemic, including essays on Gulf defence economics, global and great-power politics, the Gulf states’ development models, strategy and geo-economics.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

42. Data Standards Task Force for Digital Cooperation

Author:: Michel Girard
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: There is no consensus to create a global framework for managing data governance under the United Nations. A Data Standards Task Force (DSTF) is needed to create a single data zone where trustworthy data could circulate freely between like-minded countries. This proposal is aligned with the objectives of fora such as the International Grand Committee on Big Data, Privacy and Democracy. Canada could also spearhead the launch of the DSTF with like-minded countries through the implementation of regional free trade agreements such as the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement or the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Topic:: International Cooperation, United Nations, Trade Policy, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

43. Carbon Pricing in Organized Wholesale Electricity Markets

Author:: David R. Hill
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Speaking at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Technical Conference regarding Carbon Pricing in Organized Wholesale Electricity Markets, adjunct senior research scholar David R. Hill delivered a statement on issues surrounding carbon pricing in the FERC-jurisdictional markets. The purpose of this conference was to discuss considerations related to state-adoption of mechanisms to price carbon dioxide emissions, commonly referred to as carbon pricing, in regions with Commission-jurisdictional organized wholesale electricity markets (i.e., regions with regional transmission organizations/independent system operators, or RTOs/ISOs). The conference focused on carbon pricing approaches where a state (or group of states) sets an explicit carbon price, whether through a price-based or quantity-based approach, and how that carbon price intersects with RTO/ISO-administered markets, addressing both legal and technical issues.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Environment, International Cooperation, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

44. Triangular Cooperation: Broader, more Dynamic and Flexible

Author:: Geovana Zoccal
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: rilateral Cooperation (TriCo) has to operate growing complexity in the international development cooperation, going beyond the North-South-divide. TriCo became broader, more dynamic and flexible. The briefing presents recommendations to advance TriCo for all donors, and to make the modality support the 2030 Agenda.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

45. Earmarked Funding for Multilateral Development Cooperation: Asset and Impediment

Author:: Max Otto Baumann and Erik Lundsgaarde
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The United Nations development system and other multilateral organizations have increasingly been funded through earmarked contributions. This has implications for their ability to effectively and independently perform the functions member states’ expect of them.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, United Nations, Multilateralism, Development Aid, and Funding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

46. The Two Hundred Billion Dollar Question: How to Get the Biggest Impact from the 2019 Replenishments

Author:: Andrew Rogerson and Owen Barder
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: n 2019/2020 donor governments are anticipated to pledge up to $170 billion to various multilateral organisations as part of their replenishment cycles. In the past, these large replenishments have been approached piecemeal and characterised by path dependency, which arguably has led to underperformance of the multilateral system as a whole. This unusual bunching of replenishments of some of the largest organisations in 2019 provides an opportunity to think more coherently about multilateral funding and to address key systemic problems, such as overlapping mandates and under-funding of some parts of the system. In this paper we recognise that it is unlikely that donors will take a formal, system-wide approach to the replenishments, but instead provide three suggestions that could nudge donors toward better coordinating the effect of their decisions. These are (1) multilaterals should be invited to set out in advance, and in a common format, their “offer” on a number of key issues, (2) donors should increase the envelope for core multilateral funding by diverting money away from earmarked funds, and (3) donors should provide a confidential forecast of their likely replenishments to a trusted intermediary, so that the “business as usual” baseline scenario is known.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Multilateral Relations, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

47. Improving Global Health Supply Chains through Traceability

Author:: Michael Pisa and Denise McCurdy
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: In many low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) where disease burdens are highest, health supply chains function poorly, resulting in frequent stockouts and a high prevalence of substandard and even falsified medications. In response to these concerns, the global health initiatives have stepped up their efforts to improve supply chain management. At the same time, a growing number of rich country pharmaceutical companies are investing in digital technologies that help them “track and trace” the movement of medicines through the supply chain at the package-level. Drawing from interviews with over thirty experts, we find that traceability offers a realistic solution to some of the problems found in LMIC health supply chains but that implementing the approach is a huge logistical endeavor that requires a strong political commitment. We close by discussing how donors can support committed governments, by taking an evidence-based approach to determine what traceability methods work best.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Health Crisis, Pharmaceuticals, and Tracing
Political Geography:: Global Focus

48. Struggling with Scale: Ebola’s Lessons for the Next Pandemic

Author:: Jeremy Konyndyk
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: The next pandemic is a matter of when, not if. Preparing for this inevitability requires that policymakers understand not just the science of limiting disease transmission or engineering a drug, but also the practical challenges of expanding a response strategy to a regional or global level. Achieving success at such scales is largely an issue of operational, strategic, and policy choices—areas of pandemic preparedness that remain underexplored.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Ebola, Public Health, and Pandemic
Political Geography:: Global Focus

49. What Is “Country Ownership”? A Formal Exploration of the Aid Relationship

Author:: William Savedoff
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: The aid literature and high-level accords like the Paris Declaration argue that “country ownership” is critical to the effectiveness of aid. In response, donors and recipients renamed themselves “development partners,” obscuring the tendency for country ownership benefits (i.e. more successful and sustainable programs) to come at the expense of satisfying the funding countries’ priorities. This paper illustrates the tradeoff between country ownership and funders’ priorities with a formal model in which aid is governed by a contract to produce a jointly desired outcome. The model generalizes the Principal-Agent approaches for studying aid which treat countries as having multiple objectives. The new model illustrates how a recipient country’s rational resource allocation choices vary with different aid contracts, whether based on lump sum payments, input-based payments, conditional payments, matching grants or outcome payments. It reveals two critical aspects of the country ownership debate. First, even when funders and recipients agree on project goals, funders can only achieve their priorities through distorting domestic allocative choices. Second, funders are likely to fully embrace country ownership only in cases where they believe alternative uses of domestic funds have integrity (as defined by the funder). The model also shows that when funders put higher priority on achieving their goals than accommodating recipient allocation preferences, they should prefer conditional payments, matching grants, or outcome payments. Among these, the donor’s preferences would depend on the relative observability of expenditures to outcomes. If instead funders embrace country ownership and seek to maximize the country’s welfare, lump sum grants are better. In terms of Paris Declaration goals of sustainability, the aid contracts which are least aligned with recipient country priorities will not be sustained after aid ends unless domestic preferences are altered by a process of hysteresis.
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Global Focus

50. Inequality in Energy Consumption: Statistical Equilibrium or a Question of Accounting Conventions?

Author:: Gregor Semieniuk and Isabella M. Weber
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: Mitigating climate change requires information about the inequality in energy consumption. Recent contributions (Banerjee and Yakovenko, 2010; Lawrence et al., 2013; Yakovenko, 2010, 2013) have studied energy inequality through the lens of maximum entropy. They claim a weighted international distribution of total primary energy demand should approach a Boltzmann-Gibbs maximum entropy equilibrium distribution in the form of an exponential distribution, implying convergence to a Gini coefficient of 0.5 from above. The present paper challenges the validity of this claim and critically discusses the applicability of statistical equilibrium reasoning to economics from the viewpoint of social accounting. It is shown that the exponential distribution is only a robust candidate for a statistical equilibrium of energy inequality when employing one particular accounting convention for energy flows, the substitution method. But this method has become problematic with a higher renewable share in the international energy mix, and no other accounting method supports the claim of a convergence to a 0.5 Gini. We conclude that the findings based on maximum entropy reasoning are sensitive to accounting conventions and critically discuss the epistemological implications of this sensitivity for the use of maximum entropy approaches in social sciences.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, and Inequality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

51. CIGI Expert Consultation on WTO Reform

Author:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: The Centre for International Governance Innovation conducted consultations in the spring of 2019 with trade experts and stakeholders about options for modernizing the trade rules and strengthening the World Trade Organization (WTO). The consultations focused on the three themes of improving the WTO through monitoring of existing rules, strengthening and safeguarding the dispute settlement function, and modernizing the trade rules for the twenty-first century. This report synthesizes the results of the consultations.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, World Trade Organization, and Modernization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

52. The Global Interplay between Trade, Geopolitical and Commodity Shocks

Author:: Idris Ademuyiwa and Pierre Siklos
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Recent events have the potential to reverse the positive macroeconomic performance of the global economy and trigger a slowdown in both global growth and international trade. In particular, the implications of ongoing trade disputes that have undermined trust in the existing multilateral cooperation system and the incentive for countries to align with ongoing global policy coordination efforts. A compelling case for a mutually beneficial resolution of these tensions can be made by emphasizing the interdependence of the Group of Twenty (G20) economies — the G20 being the premier repository of international cooperation in economic and political matters. This study also considers the state of trade globalization, with an emphasis on the performance of the G20. The emergence of geopolitical risks (GPRs), that is, events that heighten tensions between countries and therefore threaten global economic performance, is an attempt to quantify the potential economic impact of the nexus between politics and economics. In the presence of heightened political risks, negative economic effects become more likely. Nevertheless, there is no empirical evidence investigating the links between the real economy, trade, the state of the financial sector, commodity prices and GPRs. Moreover, there is no evidence on these links that has a sample of countries that make up the G20. This paper begins to fill this gap. Relying on descriptive and statistical evidence, the conclusion is drawn that GPRs represent a significant factor that threatens global economic growth and economic performance, in the G20 countries in particular. Ultimately, however, GPRs reflect other factors, including threats stemming from trade tensions and large swings in commodity prices.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Economic Growth, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, South America, North America, and Global Focus

53. International Coordination of Economic Policies in the Global Financial Crisis: Successes, Failures, and Consequences

Author:: Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This paper evaluates international efforts to diagnose the global financial crisis and decide on appropriate responses, the treatments that were agreed and adopted, and the successes and failures as the crisis unfolded. International coordination of economic policies eventually contributed importantly to containing the crisis, but the authorities failed to agree on a diagnosis and the consequent need for joint action until the case was obvious. The policy actions that were adopted were powerful and effective, but they may have undermined prospects for coordinated responses to future crises.
Topic:: Government, International Cooperation, Financial Crisis, and Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

54. The Rising Importance of Non-tariff Measures and their use in Free Trade Agreements Impact Assessments

Author:: Monica Hernandez
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:: This research examines non-tariff measures (NTMs) and their use in impact assessments of free trade agreements (FTAs) based on computable general equilibrium models (CGE) as well as its implications. We show that projected gains related to FTAs tend to rely on removing ‘actionable’ NTMs and that, usually, impact assessments and empirical studies that provide this recommendation lack case-specific explanations behind actionability as well as of the channels and the way NTM elimination is supposed to improve welfare. We also find that the estimated economic gains from FTAs based on CGE models tend to be small and based on a high percentage of NTM elimination, which underestimates the social significance of these measures. Since NTMs comprise measures that target not only economic aspects but also social and environmental ones, indiscriminate NTM elimination suggests that small gains may come at a high cost.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Tax Systems, Free Trade, and Non-Tariff Measures
Political Geography:: Global Focus

55. International Criminal Liability in the Age of Social Media: Facebook's Role in Myanmar

Author:: Isabella Banks
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:: Criminal liability in international law is unique from that of most national legal systems in that it extends to those physically distant from the crime. International law’s expanded notions of criminal liability and commission are what have made it possible for justice institutions – first the Nuremberg International Military Tribunal (IMT) in 1945 and now the International Criminal Court (ICC) – to hold high-level perpetrators who order, plan, coordinate, or facilitate mass atrocities from afar accountable for their actions. A question that international legal authorities have largely left unanswered is how this expanded notion of criminal liability might be applied in the age of global online networks and in particular, social media. There is mounting evidence that in addition to helping us stay connected and “bring the world closer together,” social media platforms are being used to proliferate ideas that result in real-world violence.
Topic:: Crime, International Cooperation, Violence, and International Criminal Court (ICC)
Political Geography:: Myanmar and Global Focus

56. Data Governance Principles for the Global Digital Economy

Author:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: In January 2019, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called for the upcoming G20 summit in Osaka to “be the summit that [starts] world-wide data governance.” The rise of the data economy has driven unprecedented growth and innovation in recent decades but is also generating new policy challenges for global leaders. Figuring out how to govern the complex data ecosystem, both enabling its potential and managing its risks, is becoming a top priority for global policymakers. In partnership with the Omidyar Network, the CSIS Technology Policy Program and Project on Prosperity and Development developed a set of data governance principles for the G20 member states, which can inform the development of data governance frameworks around the world. Discussions of data governance are not happening in a vacuum. Laws, conventions, frameworks, norms, and protocols around data have existed for decades. Data governance is implicitly or explicitly wrapped up in existing governance mechanisms around privacy, digital trade and e-commerce, and human rights law. Few of these, however, anticipate emerging technology trends that have extended the reach of digital tracking into the physical world and have allowed us to derive detailed insight from the immense ocean of data generated by the digital economy. We set out to fill four key gaps in the existing global architecture of data governance. First is the need for consistency, interoperability, and coordination of the myriad international, regional, national, and local laws and regulations that impact data. The data ecosystem is fundamentally global and cross-functional, and gaps and inconsistencies between jurisdictions create uncertainty and limit the tools available to address harmful uses of data. Second, existing rules and frameworks and the current debate around data governance often focus almost exclusively on personal data and privacy with little thought to broader impacts of data, for example on competition, mobility, and trade. Third, most existing data governance frameworks, and much of the global debate around data governance, focus on controlling access to data instead of how it is used. Fourth, these debates are often framed around the rights and freedoms of data subjects at the expense of other stakeholders and society broadly. To address these gaps, we convened a series of multi-stakeholder meetings to help us identify a set of data governance principles that can be applied in a range of institutions, organizations and national and sub-national laws and regulations. Through this process, we developed ten principles, three core objectives, and seven essential mechanisms that can inform the development of consistent and effective data governance structures around the world. We have presented these principles in the form of a model G20 statement articulating the principles and the logic behind them.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Governance, Digital Economy, and Digitization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

57. The WTO at a Crossroad

Author:: Jack Caporal, William Alan Reinsch, Madeleine Waddoups, and Catherine Tassin de Montaigu
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The World Trade Organization (WTO) is at a crossroad. Each of WTO’s three main functions—monitoring and transparency, negotiation, and dispute settlement—is under stress. There is no single source for that stress. Some pressure flows from individual members, and other pressure flows from members’ inability to reach consensus on long-standing irritants. Pressure has also come from the rise of China and its state-driven economy, the rapid pace of technological change and its impact on the global economy, persistent economic inequality, and a recent tilt towards nationalism in the recent decade in countries that have otherwise consistently advocated for free trade. How will this essential institution navigate these challenges? In its latest report, the CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business provides a roadmap of three possible future scenarios for the WTO—continuation of status quo gridlock, U.S. withdrawal from the WTO, and successful reform—and examines what happens to the global trading order in each. In addition to the report, the Scholl Chair has assembled two resources to chart the future of the WTO: a database to track WTO reform proposals and a series of flowcharts that map future scenarios for the WTO
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Trade Policy, and WTO
Political Geography:: Global Focus

58. Why Did Greece Turn Against Russia?

Author:: Dimitar Bechev
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: In the summer of 2018, Greece and Russian Federation went through one of the worst crises in their traditionally friendly relations. The falling out was triggered by allegations of Russian meddling in Greek domestic politics
Topic:: International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

59. Toward data driven education systems

Author:: Samantha Custer, Elizabeth M King, Tamar Manuelyan Atinc, Lindsay Read, and Kabir Sethi
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: Today, 650 million children around the globe are at risk of being left behind as they fail to learn basic skills. Inequitable access to education is part of the problem, but even when children are in school, they may not be learning. In Uganda, for instance, barely half of grade 6 children read at a grade 2 level (Uwezo, 2016). In India, just one in four children enrolled in grade 5 can read a simple sentence or complete simple division problems (ASER Centre, 2017).
Topic:: Education and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

60. Clearing the Path: Withdrawal of Consent and Termination as Next Steps for Reforming International Investment Law

Author:: Lise Johnson, Lisa Sachs, Brooke Güven, and Jesse Coleman
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: This is a crucial moment in international investment policymaking. Two factors have converged, calling for a new direction. First, it has become increasingly difficult to justify investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS); even governments that had been among its strongest proponents are now changing course and have raised a range of fundamental, systemic and inter-related issues relating to ISDS. Second, policy makers and other stakeholders have a greater awareness of the need to design appropriate policies to maximize the contributions cross-border investment can make to sustainable development. Influenced by these factors, various reform efforts related to investment policy are underway at the national, regional, and international levels. These discussions about reform are likely to be slow, and outcomes uncertain. In the meantime, governments and their stakeholders remain tied to an outdated system that is widely acknowledged to be ill-suited for modern investment policy objectives, with increasingly concerning consequences. This policy paper explores two near-term options that governments engaged in reform discussions can pursue, alongside longer-term work on substantive and procedural reform. These options are: (1) a joint instrument on withdrawal of consent to arbitrate; and/or (2) a joint instrument on termination. The paper examines how both options could be implemented, and makes the case for putting a pause on ISDS to ensure that investment treaties and their dispute settlement mechanisms achieve their desired ends, produce legitimate decisions, and do not undermine international economic cooperation and sustainable development more broadly.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, Governance, Reform, Policy Implementation, and Investment
Political Geography:: Global Focus

61. Soft vs Hard Governance for Labour and Environmental Commitments in Trade Agreements: Comparing the US and EU Approaches

Author:: Vandana Gyanchandani
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:: Three methodologies are used to enforce labour and environmental commitments in the US and EU trade agreements: cooperative, sanctions and composite. In-depth analysis of the scope of commitments, level of protection, institutional framework as well as types of informal and formal dispute processes elucidates the pros and cons of such methodologies. Sanctions approach weakens cooperation by misjudging the complexity of domestic policy adjustments through transnational governance. Cooperative mechanism within the NAAEC's composite design emerges as the best approach: Submission on Enforcement Matters (SEM). As it provides for an independent secretariat supported by civil society group and factual records as a sunshine remedy to review citizen submissions. However, the process is constrained by political clout, lack of managerial capacity and legal dilemmas around informal lawmaking (IN-LAW) procedures.
Topic:: Economics, Environment, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, Sustainable Development Goals, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Global Focus, and European Union

62. Financialization, Trade, and Investment Agreements: Through the Looking Glass or Through the Realities of Income Distribution and Government Policy?

Author:: Alex Izurieta, Pierre Kohler, and Juan Pizarro
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:: This paper assesses the effects of trade and investment agreements on income distribution and government policy. The critical process underpinning these effects is the rise of ‘financialization’. Global patterns of greater financialization and of worsening functional income distribution as well as tighter fiscal stances are identified in the data. Tests are conducted by combining financial statistics with databases of bilateral investment agreements and free trade agreements, as well as data generated by the UN Global Policy Model that encompasses several fiscal policy instruments. The empirical validation of these relationships brings to the fore the policy-oriented debate about the purported benefits of modern-era ‘comprehensive’ trade and investment agreements such as TTIP, TTP and CETA. The authors corroborate the findings of their respective earlier studies of these agreements and reiterate their call for caution. To preserve policy space and to avert increases of inequality, policy-makers should resist pressures to get their economies locked in such agreements and should look instead for sustainable forms of international policy coordination.
Topic:: International Cooperation, United Nations, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:: Global Focus

63. The UN Security Council: From a 20th Century Relic to Effective Security Governance

Author:: Jakkie Cilliers
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:: The United Nations Security Council lies at the heart of the global security architecture. It was established in 1945 to maintain international peace and security, but reform has been stuck for decades. Beyond a nuclear conflagration and the enduring challenge of interstate conflict, future global security challenges include the impact of climate change, the threat of pandemics, dirty bombs, nuclear terrorism and cybercrime. These risks are exacerbated by the rise of new nationalism in the West with countries such as the USA turning away from multilateralism, eschewing collaboration and accelerating change away from a global system hitherto dominated by the West. At a time of great power transitions, mul- tipolarity without sufficient multilateralism is a dan- gerous trend. Without comprehensive change that includes the end of permanent seats and the veto, the Council is fading into irrelevance. Such reform is possible, but requires a very different approach compared to efforts to find a compromise between different negotiating blocks in New York. Instead, detailed proposals should be agreed upon amongst like-minded states outside of the intergovernmental negotiating process and tabled in the General Assembly as a non-negotiable amendment to the Charter of the United Nations (UN). Even then only the threat from key countries to withdraw coopera- tion from the UN is likely to change things.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, United Nations, Multilateralism, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: Global Focus

64. Increasing International Cooperation in Cybersecurity and Adapting Cyber Norms

Author:: Elena Chernenko, Oleg Demidov, and Fyodor Lukyanov
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: nformation and communications technology (ICT) presents one of the most critical modern challenges to global security. Threat assessments predict that the next major international crisis could be due to a state or terrorist group weaponizing ICTs to devastate critical infrastructure or military logistics networks. The proliferation of asymmetric warfare (i.e., conflicts between nations or groups that have disparate military capabilities) has increased states’ use of ICTs, which necessitates the development of an international code of cyber conduct. There is an urgent need for cooperation among states to mitigate threats such as cybercrime, cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, electronic espionage, bulk data interception, and offensive operations intended to project power by the application of force in and through cyberspace. Emerging cyber threats could precipitate massive economic and societal damage, and international efforts need to be recalibrated to account for this new reality. A common misperception is that the principal cybersecurity threats demanding urgent international collaboration are massive, state sponsored attacks that target critical infrastructure such as power plants or electrical grids, causing massive devastation and human casualties. In fact, cyber threats are more diverse and complex, often targeting private enterprises and endangering the technical integrity of the digital world. The near-total digitalization of business models makes the global economy more vulnerable to cyberattacks, not only from states but also from criminal organizations and other nonstate actors.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Infrastructure, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

65. Promoting the Rule of Law Through the Law of Occupation? An Uneasy Relationship

Author:: Andreas Th. Muller
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:: A core objective of the law of occupation has traditionally been that the occupying power should heed rule of law standards in the administration of the occupied territory. Less clear is whether it should also seek to inculcate rule of law standards into the local government. To be sure, the pertinent rules of the law of occupation provide for far-reaching competences of the occupying power. However, given the predominately negative, security-focused and conservationist nature of the occupier’s powers, its involvement in the “rule of law transfer” business should not be overrated. While it is true that two major post-1945 developments, i.e. international human rights law and the involvement of the UN Security Council, have contributed toward broadening, recalibrating, and dynamizing the applicable legal standards in situations of occupation, it is nonetheless crucial to resist the temptation to concede, in the name of promoting the rule of law, too much legislative leeway to the occupying power. Thus, the question whether, and to what extent, the law of occupation mandates the occupying power to engage in promoting the rule of law in the occupied territory, calls for a differentiated, and cautious, answer.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Global Focus

66. Social Audit in 20 Steps

Author:: Transparency International
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Transparency International
Abstract:: Social audit is a powerful social accountability tool. It has led to the conviction of public officials for violating the right to information law in Guatemala, a 50 per cent reduction in the costs of public construction works in Peru, and cancelling an illegal education fee in Ghana. Social audit scrutinises public officials’ decisions and/or actions, looking for administrative or financial irregularities. It seeks to uncover discrepancies by comparing public documents, processes or services with how they should be. It can take many names and forms, ranging from social audits in Guatemala and anti-corruption brigades in Peru, to social auditing clubs in Ghana. This report extracts lessons from the social audits implemented by Acción Ciudadana in Guatemala, Proética in Peru and Ghana Integrity Initiative in Ghana. The report examines the social audit outcome reports and other records shared by the three Transparency International chapters, and includes an extensive review of the wider literature on social audits. Based on these experiences, the report outlines 20 key steps to implement an effective social audit.
Topic:: International Cooperation and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

67. Delegating Away Democracy: How Good Representation and Policy Successes Can Undermine Democratic Attitudes

Author:: Mathew Singer
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: Theories of democratic legitimacy argue that people who believe that the government is well managed and that the government represents their interests are likely to defend the democratic status quo. Principal-agent theory predicts, however, that these same groups are also more likely to support the executive taking steps to restrict free speech or opposition rights via delegative democracy. Citizens who feel represented by an ideologically sympathetic and competent executive may be willing to delegate to him or her authority to restrict the opposition, even at the expense of civil rights. Survey data from eighteen Latin American countries from 2006 to 2012 are consistent with the principal-agent hypothesis; those who voted for the ruling party in the previous election or who perceive that the economy is strong are more likely to favor restrictions on civil rights for regime opponents. Political winners are particularly likely to display low levels of tolerance for expressions of opposition in polarized party systems. Thus, for democracy to prosper, it must not only satisfy the losers of political and economic processes but also find ways to encourage winners to exercise restraint.
Topic:: International Cooperation and Democracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

68. Co-ordination in Tense Times: Issues for the G7

Author:: Anne-Laure Delatte and Sebastien Jean
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: This paper discusses what useful form international economic co-ordination might take, notwithstanding the tense climate witnessed in recent months. On international trade, we argue that aiming at wide-ranging negotiations or more-of-the-same trade liberalizations would be pointless under present circumstances. Priority should instead be given to preventing the doom loop of protectionism and retaliation, and to addressing the political concerns about globalization. On fiscal competition, we point to the risk of a potential race to the bottom despite the progress achieved thanks to the OECD BEPS initiative. We finally emphasize the need for coordinated policies on the demand side. Paper presented at the international conference on “Major Challenges for Global Macroeconomic Stability. The Role of the G7”, organized in Rome on 27-28 March 2017 by the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) with the support of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation and the Bank of Italy.
Topic:: International Cooperation and International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

69. G7 Economic Cooperation in the Trump Era

Author:: C. Fred Bergsten, Edwin M. Truman, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: This paper examines how G7 cooperation can be maintained in the Trump era. Its working assumption is that the US administration will remain open to international cooperation in principle and yet be constrained by Trump’s economic nationalism and specific campaign promises, such as reducing trade imbalances. The main finding is that useful areas for G7 macroeconomic, trade and financial cooperation continue to exist even after taking US constraints into account. At the same time, other G7 leaders need to be prepared to proceed on their own if attempts to convince the US administration that G7 economic cooperation is in the interests of all members fail. Paper presented at the international conference on “Major Challenges for Global Macroeconomic Stability. The Role of the G7”, organized in Rome on 27-28 March 2017 by the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) with the support of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation and the Bank of Italy.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

70. A Proposal for G7/G20 Policy Coordination to Strengthen Global Productivity and Output Growth

Author:: Malcolm D. Knight
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: This paper is premised on the fact that the most important macroeconomic policy issue confronting global leaders at this time is the need to restore, modernize and expand the international network of basic infrastructure that underpins global economic activity. This would help foster stronger long-term productivity growth and per capita output. This paper first outlines key policy elements that are needed within each country to design and implement a successful National Infrastructure Investment Programme (NIIP). It then describes how these NIIPs could be integrated into an Internationally Coordinated Infrastructure Investment Programme (iCIIP), and the complementary roles that the G7 and G20 summit leaders could play in carrying out this vast programme of infrastructure renewal and expansion. The G7, as a tightly knit group of advanced countries, can be instrumental in giving a clear impetus to key elements of the iCIIP strategy. The G20 instead is the appropriate body to set the course of modernization and expansion of a renewed, internationally-integrated network of basic productive infrastructure, and to guide the iCIIP as it is implemented over the next decade.
Topic:: International Relations, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

71. Germany Prioritizes the Long-term Goal of Sustainability over the Short-term Goal of Revitalizing the World Economy

Author:: Rolf Langhammer
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: While Germany continues to defend an open trading system it is not prepared to play a proactive role in pushing for liberalization of global trade. Preventing further disintegration in Europe has a higher priority for the German government than further integration in the world economy. Such priority does not only match with widespread skepticism in the German electorate on the gains from globalization. It also complies with an implicit understanding in the government that further globalization should be subject to stricter public surveillance. On nancial stability, German authorities emphasize the need to minimize the role of taxpayers in future bail-outs and giving regulators the power to force troubled banks to restructure or liquidate. Germany is also keen for the imposition of a nancial transactions tax at the global level. On macroeconomic policy, the increased reliance on domestic demand to spur growth in Germany will contribute towards global rebalancing. Given its scal space, boosting Germany’s public investment could be part of a collective e ort to address global demand weakness while addressing long-term growth challenges through structural reforms.
Topic:: International Cooperation and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

72. Overcoming Obstacles in Global Climate Action from Copenhagen to Paris: Issue Framing as a Tool to Understand Opportunities for Policy Change

Author:: Jean A. Garrison
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:: The global climate change agreement completed on December 12, 2015 in Paris set a collective target to cap greenhouse gas emissions in order to limit the temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius with a goal to get as close as possible to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. These goals were to be accomplished through a “bottom up” mechanism for national policy approaches in which states made their own choices about how they would meet climate targets. This paper examines why and how an agreement was possible in 2015 when it had not been before. What was different in Paris, or leading up to Paris, so that the parties involved successfully came to an agreement when it was not possible in Copenhagen? This paper presents a problem definition and issue framing perspective to examine the shift in the discussion in Paris from the burdens of climate action to opportunities climate action offered for economic and development models. It provides a road map to understand the role of key stakeholders, including governments, the business community, civil society, and subnational actors in the making of the climate agreement.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, Green Technology, and Paris Agreement
Political Geography:: Global Focus

73. Can We Make UN Peacekeeping Great Again

Author:: Alexandra Novosseloff
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Global Peace Operations Review
Abstract:: If UN peacekeeping operations are “at a crossroads” as the Secretary-General told the Security Council on 6 April, then it is a policy and linguistic roundabout. This is the same phrase that a senior official used to describe the Brahimi report in 2000 and others used to characterize the work of the High-level Independent Panel on Peace Operations (HIPPO) in 2015. Does this mean that the policy debate that surrounds UN peacekeeping has just been going around in circles for the past twenty years? The recent declarations made by the US administration on possible cuts of its share of the peacekeeping budget and its push to cut individual missions at the time of mandate renewal (as observed in the case of MONUSCO already) has created uneasiness and has given new life to the old debate about the relevance of UN peacekeeping. But this in itself is not a new position. The HIPPO report has also argued for such a review of existing operations. Whether peacekeeping missions are “fit for purpose”, and what this actually means in practice, are questions numerous governments, delegations in New York, departments of the UN Secretariat, experts on the matter, non-governmental organizations and at times, international public opinion, have kept asking for years and even decades. The question was put on the table of the Security Council again by the new US administration during its presidency in April 2017. The goal, as outlined in its concept paper, was to review every single peacekeeping operation to “identify areas where mandates no longer match political realities.” The objective was to “propose alternatives or paths towards restructuring to bring missions more in line with achievable outcomes.”
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

74. Is There a Future for International Monetary Cooperation?

Author:: James M. Boughton
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Economic con ict between nation-states has been a major concern throughout the past century and will continue to threaten progress for the foreseeable future. The language evolves, but the issues persist. The “beggar-thy-neighbour” policies and “competitive devaluations” that aggravated the Great Depression of the 1930s have become the “currency wars” of the twenty- rst century. De ning the problem, however, is easy compared with the task of solving it. A central recurring question is whether policy makers can — and should — cooperate and try to coordinate their policies in an effort to alleviate con icts and improve outcomes.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Political Economy, and International Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

75. The Paris Agreement – an important step in facing climate change challenges

Author:: Marina Funduk
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: t the twenty-�irst session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 21), which was held in Paris, France, in December 2015, 195 countries reached an historic agreement to combat climate change, and to accelerate and intensify the actions and investments needed for a sustainable, low carbon future. The central aim of the Paris Agreement is to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, by keeping the global temperature rise in this century to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further, to 1.5°C. Additionally, the agreement aims to strengthen the ability of countries to deal with the impacts caused by global warming. To reach these ambitious goals, it was agreed that appropriate �inancial �lows, new technology and an enhanced capacity building framework should be put in place, to support the most vulnerable countries.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

76. A Critical Year for Humanitarianism

Author:: John Norris and Carolyn Kenney
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: 2015 was a remarkable year for international diplomacy and multilateralism, culminating in two major compacts on climate change and the global development agenda: The Paris agreement on climate and the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals. In 2016, international efforts will focus on an area that will likely prove even more contentious and where the international system is fraying badly under the weight of current crises: the system of providing humanitarian relief around the globe in response to both man-made and natural disasters. Throughout 2016, world leaders and other international actors are set to participate in a number of high-level meetings and discussions to assess the state of humanitarian assistance. Their efforts will seek to improve the delivery of aid and address myriad underlying issues, ranging from how best to protect civilians in war zones to the effect of climate change on forced migration. The global scope of forced migration has already risen to severe levels, with most forecasts suggesting that the worst is yet to come. According to U.N. estimates, some 60 million people are now forcibly displaced, either as refugees, internally displaced persons, or asylum seekers. This is the highest level of forced migration the international community has faced since World War II, and the rate of displacement does not appear to be waning. This issue brief spells out the timeline of major upcoming events related to the humanitarian agenda in 2016 and discusses the scope of the major challenges the international community faces, including a lack of resources, repeated patterns of deliberate attacks on civilians, and a caseload that continues to expand rapidly. It also explores some of the issues that will likely prove most difficult to resolve given the current approach to reform, in which major structural changes—particularly to the U.N. system that helps deliver humanitarian aid—are largely off the table. Despite the enormous difficulties ahead, growing the number of actors involved in addressing humanitarian crises is the likely path to success.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Sustainable Development Goals, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

77. From Negotiation to Fulfillment: The First U.N. Climate Conferences of the Paris Era

Author:: Peter Ogden, Gwynne Taraska, and Ben Bovarnick
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: An idiosyncrasy of the international negotiations under the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, or UNFCCC, is that its annual Conference of the Parties, or COP, is hosted by a different country each year. The host country serves as the COP president and takes the lead both in shaping the broader themes of the session and in managing the mechanics of the negotiation process. Naturally, each host country wants to preside over a successful conference and leave its mark on the process going forward. Last year’s host, France, left quite a mark: a new international agreement to address climate change. This year—in which Morocco assumes the role of COP president—will be different. When countries convene in the city of Marrakech in early November 2016, they will do so with far less of the fanfare that surrounded last year’s Paris conference—and without the need to negotiate a new agreement. Morocco has indicated that it perceives this year’s COP to be part of a trilogy that began at the COP hosted in Lima, Peru, in 2014. Hakima El Haite, Moroccan minister delegate to the minister of energy, mining, water, and environment, has claimed that “Lima is the COP [of] negotiations, Paris is one of decisions,” and COP 22 “will be the Action Conference.” However, COP 22 will not only be the final installment of the COP trilogy that El Haite envisioned, but also the first COP in a long line of conferences focused on the implementation of the Paris agreement. Morocco therefore has the opportunity to establish a successful model for future COPs faced with this task.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Paris Agreement
Political Geography:: Global Focus

78. Food Security and Climate Change: New Frontiers in International Security

Author:: Tom Daschle and Michael Werz
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: In 2010, President Barack Obama’s National Security Strategy, or NSS—the periodic planning document that assesses the risks facing the country and outlines the United States’ response—for the first time recognized climate change as a security threat. The document noted that, “The danger from climate change is real, urgent and severe,” arguing that “[t]he change wrought by a warming planet will lead to new conflicts over refugees and resources.” The framing of the threat was exceptionally strong for the carefully worded NSS document; previous strategy documents in 2006 and 2002 mentioned climate change only briefly in the context of spending on new technology and natural disasters. The 2010 acknowledgment of new, nontraditional threats linked to climate change marked a turning point in the security community’s thinking about these issues. Over the past six years, analysts have accelerated their study of how these changes may affect international institutional architecture and shape geopolitical power. However, the international community still finds itself in largely uncharted waters, which requires new analytical approaches, data and mapping tools, and academic studies. But already, this nascent field points to the need to fundamentally rethink how our foreign and security policies intersect with access to water, agricultural production, food markets, transportation networks, and development projects.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, and Food Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

79. A Better Approach to Fragile States

Author:: John Norris
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Today, the world is groaning under the weight of unresolved crises, wars, terrorism, and the demands of dealing with more than 65 million people who have been forcibly displaced around the globe. Paradoxically, as recently as five years ago, the international community was quietly celebrating historic progress in reducing serious conflict, the number of people forced to migrate, and deaths on the battlefield. Concerted efforts toward conflict prevention, resolution, and peace building were paying real dividends.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, International Cooperation, Fragile States, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

80. Law as an Antidote? Assessing the Potential of International Health Law Based on the Ebola-Outbreak 2014

Author:: Robert Frau
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:: The Ebola-Outbreak of 2014 has put international health law in the limelight. This contribution assesses the measures taken by the international community with regard to the outbreak of 2014 with a special focus on the World Health Organization and the UN Security Council. International law provides different actors with means to cooperate in order to fight the outbreak. The list of actors does not include the UN Security Council, which has addressed the outbreak in one resolution under chapter VII without taking any effective legal remedies. In addition, the relevant human right to health has not been addressed by actors, creating leeway in further emergencies.
Topic:: International Cooperation, United Nations, World Health Organization, Ebola, Public Health, and Pandemic
Political Geography:: Global Focus

81. What Does New Momentum For UN Peace and Security Really Mean

Author:: Gustavo De Carvalho and Jonathan Rozen
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Global Peace Operations Review
Abstract:: A famous maxim of uncertain origin defines insanity as doing the same thing repeatedly, but expecting different results. In her opening statement at the United Nations (UN) High-Level Thematic Debate on Peace and Security, Nobel Peace laureate Leymah Gbowee used this definition to describe challenges faced by UN engagements in peace operations and peacebuilding. The 10-11 May meeting, called by the president of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) and themed In a world in risks: a new commitment for peace, provided a platform to reflect on current challenges to international peace and security. These focused, in particular, on responses to the 2015 reviews on peace operations, peacebuilding, and women, peace and security.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

82. Demystifying Intelligence in UN Peace Operations: Toward An Organizational Doctrine

Author:: Alexandra Novosseloff
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Global Peace Operations Review
Abstract:: n a way, the title of our research paper “Demystifying Intelligence in UN Peace Operations: Toward an Organizational Doctrine”, speaks for itself. We all know that the UN secretariat has been walking on eggs with this issue of intelligence for years; doing it without saying it and without realizing it. But with peace operations involved in increasing complex and demanding situations and one senses that this “fog about intelligence” can no longer be sustainable. This report complements other earlier attempts to “demystify” that charged term of intelligence and to define what “intelligence” means in the UN context and its peace operations.
Topic:: Intelligence, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

83. The Challenges of Full Deployment of UN Peace Operations

Author:: Ryan Rappa
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Global Peace Operations Review
Abstract:: he UN has always had problems deploying its largest, infantry-heavy missions. The 2015 Leaders’ Summit on Peacekeeping and this week’s 2016 UN Peacekeeping Defence Ministerial in London are Member State driven initiatives to do better. Broader participation in contributing to missions is a key part of rapid deployment as well as reaching full strength. A Global Peace Operations Review analysis of data from UN peacekeeping operations over the last 25 years indicates that modern UN peacekeeping missions, on average, take just over ten months to reach their peak deployment. In Africa, where countries on the continent are often left to the take the lead, average time to deploy is worse -- almost twelve months to reach peak deployment. In fact, the average non-African mission in our analysis reached peak deployment in less than seven months, the fastest of any grouping.
Topic:: International Cooperation, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

84. Has UN Peacekeeping Become More Deadly

Author:: Marina Henke
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Global Peace Operations Review
Abstract:: any practitioners believe that peacekeeping has become an increasingly dangerous undertaking in recent years. My research paper “Has UN Peacekeeping Become More Deadly? Analyzing Trends in UN Fatalities”, tries to get at the heart of this question. It examines trends in fatalities using a new dataset compiled by the Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO). The dataset accounts for monthly fatalities by type of fatality (accident, malicious act, illness, and other causes), nationality of the deceased as well as personnel type for each UN operation worldwide during the time period of 1948 - June 2015. To assess trends, the paper merges this monthly fatality data with monthly deployment data and calculates fatality ratios (i.e., fatalities rates relative to deployment levels) by national contingent, mission, and globally (i.e., all UN missions combined). This is a novelty. All previous studies have worked with yearly deployment averages. As a result, the analysis of fatality trends presented in this paper constitutes the most detailed study of this phenomenon thus far.
Topic:: International Cooperation, United Nations, Military Strategy, and Casualties
Political Geography:: Global Focus

85. Elaborating in the INDC context

Author:: Neha B. Joseph
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: Several countries have embarked on nationwide processes to devise their ‘contributions’ towards a new global climate agreement set to be adopted at Paris in 2015. Sixty-two countries have already communicated their contributions to the UNFCCC, in pledges covering around 62.9% of global emissions in 2012. These contributions, formally known as ‘intended nationally determined contributions’ (INDCs) are expected to be the bedrock of post 2020 climate action and the building blocks of the 2015 climate deal, that is currently being negotiated by Parties. This paper discusses the emergence of this concept and outlines some of the legal and technical aspects of a contribution and their implications on ambition, adequacy and political feasibility. Section 3 analyses pledges in the submitted INDCs, with a special focus on G20 countries. The term ‘INDC’ first emerged in 2013 at the Warsaw negotiations of the Conference of Parties (COP) in a decision inviting Parties “to initiate or intensify domestic preparationsfor their intended nationally determined contributions….. and to communicate them well in advance of the twenty-first session of the Conference of the Parties (by the first quarter of 2015 by those Parties ready to do so)” For developed countries, INDCs will replace their Kyoto Protocol commitments; for developing countries, Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) will continue to be in force as implementation tools supporting the mitigation component of their INDCs. Over the past year, countries have been negotiating to iron out differences on issues like differentiation, legal nature, scope, form and review of contributions with varying levels of success on each front.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Legislation
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, Asia, and Global Focus

86. Crisis? What Crisis? The World Bank and Housing Finance for the Poor

Author:: Elisa Van Waeyenberge
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: This paper provides a critical assessment of the Bank’s housing policies, against the backdrop of far- reaching transformations of the financial sector across the world and a persistently dire shelter situation in developing countries. It situates the Bank’s housing stance historically since its initial involvement in the sector in the early 1970s. This allows to shed light on systemic and analytical tendencies bearing on Bank housing policy with significant implications for the Bank’s current policy stance, including its response (or lack thereof) to the dramatic experience with housing finance laid bare through the global financial and economic crisis.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Poverty, World Bank, Finance, Housing, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

87. European Climate and Energy Policy: The Challenges Ahead

Author:: Juan Martin Navarro Ruiz and Juan Antonio Pavón Losada
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: The Lima meeting is already over. Again, the script from every climate summit is being repeated: a framework for negotiation has been settled, the basis for future agreements has been laid down, however, decisions are still being postponed. In this case, until the Paris Summit in late 2015. Inter alia, the lack of sensitivity of the United States towards environmental protection, coupled with the failure of the European Union in solving their almost chronic financial, social and political instability crisis, have left the world’s environmental protection strategy orphan of leadership. Certainly, a strategic project in the near future of the international community and essential for humanity.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, and Europe Union
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Germany, and Global Focus

88. The role of norms in international peace mediation

Author:: Sarah Hellmüller, Julia Palmiano Federer, and Mathias Zeller
Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: This policy brief assesses the role of norms in international peace mediation. Despite the topic attracting growing attention, the ways in which norms influence mediation processes are often not analysed systematically but rather prescriptively. In order to shed light on this debate from an analytical point of view, the brief suggests a three-step analytical framework. First, it suggests a categorisation of norms, then it assesses how mediators prioritise norms within this framework and finally it calls for a context-specific inclusion of norms in mediation processes. Thus, it argues that explicitly elucidating the different categories of norms, as well as their prioritisation by mediators, mandate-givers and negotiating parties, will lead to a more constructive debate and provide sustainable solutions that are owned by national, and supported by international, actors.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Peace, and Mediation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

89. Strengthening Implementation of the UN's Children and Armed Conflict Agenda

Author:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: on Children and Armed Conflict, and the Permanent Mission of Liechtenstein to the United Nations, convened a workshop, “Strengthening Implementation of the UN's Children and Armed Conflict Agenda,” on December 12-13, 2013, at Princeton University. The workshop brought together representatives of United Nations member states, members of the Security Council, United Nations offices, representatives of NGOs, and academics to discuss strengthening Security Council action toward perpetrators of violations against children in situations of armed conflict. The workshop produced recommendations for action to the Security Council and its Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict, the Secretary-General and his Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict, UN member states, regional and subregional organizations and arrangements, and donors.
Topic:: International Cooperation, United Nations, Children, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

90. Africa's Media Boom: The Role of International Aid

Author:: Mary Myers
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: This year, 2014, marks 25 years since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the symbolic end of the Cold War in 1989. It also marks the anniversary of the beginning of an extraordinary proliferation of media outlets in sub-Saharan Africa, which swept across the continent, freeing Africa’s press and liberating the airwaves from monopoly by the state. Economics, technology, and socio-political forces all played major roles in this boom of Africa’s media. But one of the untold stories of these changes is the role of donor aid in this process. This is the subject of the Center for International Media Assistance’s latest report, Africa’s Media Boom: The Role of International Aid, by veteran international media consultant Mary Myers. It explores these questions: · How much of a catalyst were foreign donors in this mushrooming of Africa’s news media? · What were the motives and mechanisms of this aid? · What difference did it make at the time, and subsequently? · Was media proliferation necessarily a good thing–did it lead to pluralism and genuine freedom?
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Affairs, and Media
Political Geography:: Africa and Global Focus

91. Global Financial Conditions, Country Spreads and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Countries

Author:: Ozge Akinci
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: This paper uses a panel structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate the extent to which global financial conditions, i.e., a global risk-free interest rate and global financial risk, and country spreads contribute to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries. The main findings are: (1) Global financial risk shocks explain about 20 percent of movements both in the country spread and in the aggregate activity in emerging economies. (2) The contribution of global risk-free interest rate shocks to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging economies is negligible. Its role, which was emphasized in the literature, is taken up by global financial risk shocks. (3) Country spread shocks explain about 15 percent of the business cycles in emerging economies. (4) Interdependence between economic activity and the country spread is a key mechanism through which global financial shocks are transmitted to emerging economies.
Topic:: Development, Emerging Markets, International Cooperation, Financial Crisis, and Global Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

92. From Washington to Seoul: Advancing Nuclear Security Objectives

Author:: Olexander Motsyk
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: lexander Motsyk is Ambassador of Ukraine to the U.S. Being a career diplomat, Mr. Motsyk has worked for more than 30 years in the field of foreign relations. Prior to his assignment in the U.S. he served as Ambassador of Ukraine to Turkey and Poland. His diplomatic career also includes such positions as First Deputy Foreign Minister as well as Foreign Policy Advisor to the President of Ukraine. His work was marked by the Commander Cross and Star of the Order of Merit of the Republic of Poland (2010), The Order of Merit, II Degree (2006) and The Order of Justice, I Degree, of the World Jurist Association (2005). In this op-ed Mr. Motsyk discusses Ukraine’s contribution to global nuclear safety and security and importance of international cooperation to make the world a safer place to live in.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Nuclear Safety
Political Geography:: Global Focus

93. Cooperating in the Energy Security Regime Complex

Author:: Jochen Prantl
Publication Date:: 08-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: This paper investigates the influence of global power shifts on energy security cooperation and examines the existing structure for energy governance. It asserts that a regime complex is likely to be more effective that an integrated regime in governing energy cooperation. It concludes with recommendations on how to enhance cooperation in energy security.
Topic:: Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Power Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

94. Post G20 Seoul Summit Meeting and East Asia

Author:: Yves Tiberghien
Publication Date:: 08-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Since the 2008 financial crisis, the global economic system has entered a period of intense turbulence, higher systemic risk, and structural change. Many observers and policy-makers recognize the current period as a critical juncture , during which the system of global governance must be successfully upgraded to cope with increasingly globalized and volatile markets. In addition, the global system is undergoing a historic rebalancing in the distribution of power, a process marked by the rise of large emerging countries, primarily China, India, and Brazil. As a consequence, the share of OECD countries in the global GDP has shrunk from 60% to 50% between 2000 and 2011 (PPP basis). This new reality has empowered the new rising emerging economies to demand a larger say in global governance, as witnessed during the debates over the choice of a new IMF Managing Director in June 2011. By chance and also owing to its relatively careful initial design, the G20 Leaders Summit has emerged as the prime forum for the negotiation of changes in the global economic governance. In particular, the G20 represents a relatively stable equilibrium, due to its near equal balancing between developed OECD countries and emerging economies (nearly 10 to 10, depending how one codes Mexico and Korea). The G20 suffers somewhat from its large size, but at least enjoys support from most of its members due to its numerous opportunities for coalition-building and issue-specific balancing. It is true that the G20 in still in the process of proving itself and has to deal with many skeptics. Many analysts in Canada and the U.S. are quick to discount the G20 process as meaningless summitry among too many countries focused on widely divergent domestic agendas. Ian Bremmer and Nouriel Roubini both call this a G-zero situation. Likewise, many leaders in Japan, especially in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, are very skeptical about the G20’s potential and Japan has broadly not yet accepted the G20 as the central game of global governance, preferring to it the well-established G8. Yet, the G0 or G8 or G193 are not functional options. They represent default realities without the ability to solve any of our global problems. Only the G20 is able to deliver the necessary political leadership to initiate the upgrading of global governance. For this reason, the majority of key countries (including Europe, China, Korea, and many in the U.S.) see the G20 as the core game of global governance and the best option for the enhancement of global cooperation and the restructuring of global institutions. After an interim summit in Toronto, the Seoul summit came at a critical moment when the future of the G20 was in the balance. By managing to deliver visible results and institutional milestones, the Seoul Summit played a key role in the gradual institutionalization of the G20. The Seoul summit provided significant momentum to the G20 and significant legacies. It can be seen as a second high point after the London summit.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, G20, Economic Cooperation, and Summit
Political Geography:: Global Focus

95. Aggregate Hours Worked in OECD Countries: New Measurement and Implications for Business Cycles

Author:: Lee E. Ohanian and Andrea Raffo
Publication Date:: 12-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: We build a dataset of quarterly hours worked for 14 OECD countries. We document that hours are as volatile as output, that a large fraction of labor adjustment takes place along the intensive margin, and that the volatility of hours relative to output has increased over time. We use these data to reassess the Great Recession and prior recessions. The Great Recession in many countries is a puzzle in that labor wedges are small, while those in the U.S. Great Recession - and those in previous European recessions - are much larger.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Labor Issues, Business, and Labor Policies
Political Geography:: Global Focus

96. Financial Globalization and Monetary Policy

Author:: Steven B. Kamin
Publication Date:: 06-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: This paper reviews the available evidence and previous research on potential effects of financial globalization, that is, the international integration of financial markets. In particular, we address the questions: Has financial globalization materially increased the influence of external developments on domestic monetary conditions? And, has it reduced the influence of central banks over financial and economic conditions in their own country? We find that central banks with floating currencies retain the ability to independently determine short-term interest rates and thus influence broader financial conditions and macroeconomic performance in their economies. However, domestic financial conditions appear to have become more vulnerable to a wide range of external shocks, complicating the task of making appropriate monetary policy decisions. Moreover, the financial crisis has highlighted the importance of cross-border channels for the transmission of liquidity and credit shocks. With financial transactions increasingly being undertaken in vehicle currencies such as dollars and euros, the liquidity provision and the lender-of-last resort functions of many central banks are being challenged. Accordingly, international arrangements for liquidity provision may become increasingly important in the future.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Cooperation, Monetary Policy, and Interest Rates
Political Geography:: Global Focus

97. Insights Into Two American Empires

Author:: MIT Center for International Studies
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: In Escape from Empire: The Developing World ’s Journey through Heaven and Hell (MIT Press, 2007), Alice Amsden tartly takes on much of the conventional wisdom about the global economy. In this interview, she briefly touches on a few of the book’s provocative themes.
Topic:: Economics, Imperialism, International Cooperation, and Empire
Political Geography:: Global Focus

98. Who Failed Whom? Assessing the UN's Human Rights Efforts

Author:: Balakrishnan Rajagopal
Publication Date:: 10-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Several months ago, during the finalization of the plan to replace the United Nations’ Commission on Human Rights with the new UN Human Rights Council, John Bolton, the U.S. ambassador to the UN, said with characteristic flourish, “We want a butterfly. We’re not going to put lipstick on a caterpillar and declare it a suc- cess.” Is the new UN Human Rights Council a butterfly or a cater- pillar (with or without lipstick)? Bolton’s pungent remark rests on three underlying assumptions: first, UN reform was urgently needed in the human rights field because its predecessor, the UN Commission on Human Rights, was a failure; second, the cause of failure was the takeover of the Commission by undemocratic and repressive states and the resultant hijacking of the human rights agenda; third, the best way to make the UN effective and legitimate in the human rights field was to restrict the membership of its premier body, i.e., the Council, to a handful of liberal democratic states and have them act as the custodians and enforcers of human rights. Bolton’s critique of the Commission (if not his lan- guage) and his vision to go forward have been shared widely by many academics, policy specialists, and western international non-governmental organizations (INGOs) that specialize in human rights advocacy.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Cooperation, United Nations, and NGOs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

99. Deterring Cyber War: A U.S.-Led Cybersecurity Summit

Author:: Andy Johnson and Kyle Spector
Publication Date:: 10-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Third Way
Abstract:: Every day, U.S. military and civilian networks are probed thousands of times for cyber weaknesses. As a result of the mounting threat, there is a growing consensus that international action is required to reduce the threat of cyber war. The U.S. should take the lead in deterring cyber war by hosting a cybersecurity summit—a key first step to building an international cyber accord
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: United States, North America, and Global Focus

100. "Injustes" sanctions: les constructions internationales de la dénonciation des embargos et l'escalade de la vertu abolitionniste

Author:: Ariel Colonomos
Publication Date:: 11-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: At a time when the use of sanctions has intensified considerably, criticism directed at embargos is gaining ground. In interpreting this significant rise in opposition, this article shows how and why mobilization against sanctions has developed, what sort of actors are involved and what forms it takes. This research brings to light the formation of networks and coalitions against both unilateral and multilateral measures. It underlines the role, status and scope of those whose business it is to fashion norms, by questioning the main analytical categories their strategies are usually based on. An expertise in embargo assessment, destined to levy judgment on a type of very specific violence, is developing in both national and transnational public spaces. This research, analyzing the emergence of this expertise, sheds light on the development of a conception of unjust sanctions and identifies the mechanisms of its construction on an international scale. This text in particular underlines the importance of traditions of just war, especially their reinterpretation by actors on the international scene and its moral norm-makers. Considering the development of these standards allows us to grasp one of the most decisive aspects of the use of force in the post-cold war world, as well as the establishment of certain international reforms.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS