Content Type: Working Paper / Political Geography: Europe / Publication Year: within 5 Years

101. Funding the EU’s external migration policy: ‘Same old’ or potential for sustainable collaboration?

Author:: Evangelia (Lilian) Tsourdi, Nasrat Sayed, and Federica Zardo
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: In this Discussion Paper, the authors examine changes in the EU funding landscape relating to migration policy and provide recommendations on how to maximise the benefits of cooperation. Since 2015, when the EU was first exposed to a significant rise in irregular arrivals from neighbouring countries, funding has acquired increasing salience, leading to the mobilisation of €7 billion through Trust Funds and the creation of a specific heading devoted to migration and border management in the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework 2021-2027. The authors look closely at the funding dimension of Talent Partnerships, the latest initiative to support legal migration to the EU, and the contradictions. Given funding’s ability to enhance cooperation with third countries, the Paper focuses on how the EU could take several steps toward ensuring sustainable collaboration. These include moving towards long-term planning, embedding transparency guarantees in the operationalisation of its initiatives, scaling up Talent Partnerships for more impactful and mutually beneficial cooperation, and striving for third-country ownership. Furthermore, in the context of growing political and economic instability around the world, financial resources should equally be used to address the different components of migration processes, such as local development, legal migration, circular migration, integration, but also displacement and forced (im)mobilities. At the same time, long-standing issues of accountability and transparency should be addressed through new instruments. The conditions through which funding can act as a catalyst for sustainability and co-development are also analysed, and recommendations are provided on the next steps for EU action.
Topic:: Migration, European Union, Borders, and Transparency
Political Geography:: Europe

102. The US-EU Trade and Technology Council: Assessing the record on data and technology issues

Author:: Juan Carlos Fernández-Rodríguez and Frances G. Burwell
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Since its creation, the Trade and Technology Council (TTC) has endorsed a Declaration for the Future of the Internet (DFI), designed a Joint Roadmap for transatlantic cooperation on artificial intelligence (AI) and identified quantum technology as a high priority. While these achievements can be considered success stories, this Discussion Paper argues that the TTC is now facing a dilemma. Different approaches to technology and digital governance and the lack of regulatory autonomy make the TTC best suited to address emerging issues that do not require changes in legislation. Yet, this is precisely what stakeholders want it to address. So, how can the TTC ensure its continuity without regulatory authority? The Paper offers five key recommendations: Make AI a test case and build from the lessons of the Joint AI Roadmap; Engage in issues where there is an initial strong value alignment and no regulation; Work on moonshot ideas such as the “metaverse” or low-earth orbit governance; Take oversight over the special task forces it has created to tackle critical issues such as the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA); Think more actively about how to push its efforts into multilateral forums with like-minded partners.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Trade, and Data
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

103. Regulating platform work: How will this impact migrant workers?

Author:: Tommaso Grossi and Andreina De Leo
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Migrant workers in the platform labour market are vulnerable to double exploitation. First, as platform workers, they cannot enjoy the protections that employment law provides. Second, they can be subject to exploitation due to their migration and residence status, especially if undocumented. This Discussion Paper analyses the impact of the European Commission’s proposed Directive on improving the working conditions and rights of platform migrant workers. The proposed Directive's positive impact will likely be restricted by migrant employees' bargaining strength and non-EU platform workers' well-founded fears of reprisal. Therefore, targeted improvements to the proposed framework are needed to remove the structural barriers faced by migrant workers when accessing the labour market. This Paper offers six recommendations on how to move forward: Strike the right balance between retaining flexibility for genuine self-employed platform workers and enhancing protection through reclassification. Guarantee transparency and ensure non-discrimination in algorithmic management. Introduce effective measures against the risk of subcontracting and ensure the liability of subcontracting chains. Facilitate the involvement of civil society organisations with specific expertise on migrants’ rights as well as trade unions involved in defending the rights of platform workers to enhance the enforcement of rights and protections. Put in place binding measures to establish ‘firewalls’ for platform migrant workers who lodge complaints in the context of inspections by the labour authorities. Promote better access to the labour market for migrant workers and consider regularisation channels for undocumented migrants as the most effective way to prevent or fight exploitation.
Topic:: Employment, Labor Market, Migrant Workers, and Exploitation
Political Geography:: Europe

104. One step closer to getting the EU Migration Pact done. One step closer to ambitious change?

Author:: Alberto-Horst Neidhardt
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: On 8 June, the Swedish Presidency put to the vote compromise texts on two vital elements of the EU asylum system: the rules governing the processing of asylum applications and those determining the state responsible for applicants, including a corresponding solidarity mechanism. A turning point was Italy getting on board after some concessions were made on how to apply the notion of safe third countries, making it easier to carry out returns to transit countries. Poland and Hungary voted against the proposals, and four other countries abstained – Malta, Bulgaria, Lithuania, and Slovakia – paving the way for the “historic” agreement. This Discussion Paper asks: What factors shaped the vote? What will future negotiations focus on, and what will be the impact of the reforms on the ground? Finally, what should come after the New Migration Pact? Trialogue negotiations are about to start, and the stakes have never been this high in EU asylum and migration policies. If the negotiations do not deliver reforms that can improve the European asylum system, it will undermine trust between member states, citizens’ confidence in the EU and its capacity to manage the migration phenomenon.
Topic:: Migration, European Union, and Asylum
Political Geography:: Europe

105. Towards a cleaner air in Europe: Time for a stronger vision and more action

Author:: Annika Hedberg, Stefan Sipka, Simon Dekeyrel, Melanie Fessler, and Danielle Brady
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: As scientific evidence on the impact of air pollution on human life continues to grow, accepting air pollution as a given side product of our economies and activities can no longer be tolerated. This Discussion Paper highlights what the EU needs to do to recognise clean air for what it is: a necessary component for healthy societies, people and long-term economic prosperity and social well-being in Europe. A stronger vision and framework for action is needed, and this paper recommends what the EU needs to do next. Have a stronger vision and framework for action by: Adopting an ambitious and comprehensive clean air agenda; Making cleaner air an integral part of the EU’s vision and framework for greater well-being; Improving enforcement of the air quality standards and monitoring; Raising awareness about the causes of air pollution, benefits of action and measures to be taken. Provide concrete measures to address air pollution by: Ensuring all key sectors, including agri-food, industry, energy and mobility, play their role; Encouraging, empowering and enabling regional, local and citizen action.
Topic:: European Union, Public Health, and Air Pollution
Political Geography:: Europe

106. A quantum cybersecurity agenda for Europe

Author:: Andrea García Rodríguez
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Cybersecurity plays an important role in Europe’s economic security. However, advances in quantum computing create a new set of challenges that compromise the level of security of everything happening online. Actors like the United States and some — but not all — EU member states are already taking action to counter current and emerging threats. Yet, European coordination will be necessary to ensure a harmonised and effective response. This Discussion Paper provides recommendations on how the EU could enhance its efforts to navigate cybersecurity risks. These include: 1. Establishing an EU Coordinated Action Plan on the quantum transition. 2. Establishing a new expert group within the European Union Agency for Cybersecurity with seconded national experts to exchange good practices and identify obstacles to the transition to post-quantum encryption. 3. Assisting in setting priorities for the transition to post-quantum encryption and pushing for cryptographic agility to respond to emerging vulnerabilities. 4. Facilitating political coordination between the European Commission, member states, national security agencies and ENISA to determine technological priorities and identify use cases for quantum-safe technologies. 5. Facilitating technical coordination at the EU level to address research gaps in quantum-safe technologies. 6. Exploring the use of sandboxes to accelerate the development of near-term applications of quantum information technologies.
Topic:: European Union, Cybersecurity, and Economic Security
Political Geography:: Europe

107. Soldiers out, civilians left behind: EU lessons from the evacuation of Kabul

Author:: Mihai Sebastian Chihaia and Georg Riekeles
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: This is the introduction to a three-part Report that reviews the evacuation of Kabul, and the combined failures of NATO and the EU, amid the war in Ukraine. Even if Europe’s security debate has moved on to this bigger and more pressing challenge, the EU must heed the lessons from Kabul as it reviews its crisis management architecture and implements the Strategic Compass. The exact conditions of the Afghanistan evacuation might not be seen again for many years. Still, the EU must consider a range of other scenarios: European soldiers or citizens in danger needing evacuation from failing states or war zones, military support for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, or even short-term stability support to governments and initial entry missions. This requires a commitment to, and building of, EU rapid deployment capacities that are effectively ready to be used, associated with appropriate crisis management structures for EU decision-making. These are the questions that have interested this project, whose examination is structured in three parts: A description of the central decision moments leading up to and during the evacuation from Afghanistan. An assessment of the main factors contributing to failure in anticipation, planning and execution. Recommendations regarding the EU’s crisis management architecture and capacity in the context of the implementation of the Strategic Compass.
Topic:: Security, NATO, and European Union
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Europe, and South Asia

108. EU-Ukraine wartime trade: Overcoming difficulties, forging a European path

Author:: Svitlana Taran
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: During the first year of Russia’s war in Ukraine, EU trade-liberalisation measures and EU-Ukraine Solidarity Lanes provided Ukraine with alternative export routes and allowed the country to reorient part of its exports to the EU market. However, the insufficient logistics capacity and lack of adequate coordination and cooperation during the operation of Solidarity Lanes led to tensions between Ukraine and its Eastern European neighbours. While a compromise between the European Commission and the Eastern European countries allowed the extension of temporary trade-liberalisation measures for a further year, resolving the immediate crisis, more is needed to ensure their smooth operation. This Discussion Paper provides recommendations on how the EU can further intensify efforts to facilitate Ukraine’s trade flows and prevent sudden trade disruptions and restrictions. These include: Enhance the strategic alignment and connectivity between Ukraine and the EU; Ensure security guarantees and increase the capacity of seaport corridors; Enhance coordination and unity between the Commission, EU member states and Ukraine; Avoid sudden and unjustified Solidarity Lanes' disruptions; Protect critical port and export infrastructure from Russia’s attacks; Facilitate EU-Ukraine trade liberalisation and Ukraine’s integration into the EU Single Market.
Topic:: Security, European Union, Trade Liberalization, Trade, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

109. Is the European Health Union ready for the challenges of the 21st century?

Author:: Elizabeth Kuiper and Danielle Brady
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic laid bare national health systems' unpreparedness and structural weaknesses. It also emphasised the disparities in national capabilities among European countries and the lack of a common European approach against cross-border health threats. As we enter a post-pandemic era, this Discussion Paper assesses the proposals under the European Health Union and sets out recommendations to address the identified shortcomings. These include: Adopting a more holistic approach by appointing a Vice President for Well-being. Strengthening crisis preparedness by elevating HERA to an agency. Promoting access and affordability by extending joint procurement. Strengthening the European health workforce by tackling shortages and addressing skills gaps. Mitigating the cost of inaction by increasing investment in health. Ensuring planetary health by promoting a Green European Health Union. Promoting Europe’s status as a global leader in health data by harmonising health data regulations with the European Health Data Space. Safeguarding the EU’s strategic autonomy by implementing the Versailles Declaration and strengthening supply chain resilience. Building on the EU’s Global Health Strategy by exploring global partnerships. This Paper builds on the findings of the European Policy Centre’s Task Force on the European Health Union. The multistakeholder Task Force was held under the auspices of the EPC's Social Europe and Well-being programme with the kind support of Amgen, MSD, Johnson&Johnson, SITRA and EIT Health.
Topic:: European Union, Public Health, COVID-19, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:: Europe

110. The Nexus Approach: Bringing together climate, human security, and demographic change in times of permacrisis

Author:: Eleonora Milazzo
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The start of a new institutional cycle and the development of the European Council's Strategic Agenda will raise concerns about the EU's ability to respond to multiple problems in a more systemic and conscious style. Therefore, a holistic nexus approach that combines greater inter- and intra-institutional collaboration with strategic vision and principled leadership will be essential if the EU is to deliver on complex challenges. It will play a vital role in the EU’s ability to deal with today’s permacrisis with regard to climate change, human security, and demographic transformations. This Discussion Paper retraces the genesis of the nexus approach in humanitarian and development cooperation to draw lessons learned for the EU’s strategic thinking around systemic and deeply interconnected problems. It shows how a conscious strategic vision, more coherence, and principled leadership will be crucial if the EU is to tackle complex challenges effectively.
Topic:: Climate Change, Demographics, European Union, Crisis Management, and Human Security
Political Geography:: Europe

111. Charting a Transatlantic Approach to Russia: A Working Paper of the Transatlantic Forum on Russia

Author:: Andrea Kendall-Taylor
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: Although the United States and Europe are not directly engaged in the war with Russia in Ukraine, Moscow clearly sees itself as being at war with the West. The United States and Europe, therefore, must be prepared for a period of what is likely to be prolonged confrontation with Russia, with the war for Ukraine at the center of that confrontation. Successfully navigating this period of sustained confrontation requires continued cohesion and coordination between the United States and Europe to ensure they share a common picture of the challenge that Russia poses and the necessary response. Russia’s war in Ukraine has precipitated rapid and major changes in Europe and broader ripple effects that are altering political dynamics much farther afield. Because of the war in Ukraine, Russia itself is changing in still unknowable ways. Russian President Vladimir Putin is taking the country in a more authoritarian direction, Russian society is shifting, and the Russian military’s degradation in Ukraine means that the nature of the Russian threat is evolving. Russia’s war, therefore, requires the allies to re-examine long-held assumptions and understandings about Russia and its intentions and capacity, and it is those updated assessments that should guide the transatlantic partners’ future policy approach toward Moscow. There is no going back to the way things were with Russia prior to its invasion of Ukraine. Instead, Western allies must build on ongoing efforts to constrict and constrain the Kremlin’s ability to sustain aggression in Ukraine and more broadly beyond Russia’s borders. It also will require the development of a long-term and sustainable approach to restoring peace and stability to Europe, increasing resilience to the Kremlin’s tools and tactics, and planting the seeds for a less confrontational relationship with a future Russia. In many ways, such an approach will resemble the containment strategy first set out in the 1940s, a strategy designed to apply steady and forceful counterpressure to a regime whose paranoia and insecurities represented a clear danger to the West, just as the Putin regime does today. Each of the transatlantic allies’ preferred policy approaches will reflect their own proximity to and history with Russia, as well as current political realities within their own borders. Nonetheless, there is broad consensus within the alliance that the unprecedented cohesion and coordination among allies in the wake of Russia’s invasion must hold. To that end, this working paper provides a starting point for the development of a transatlantic approach to Russia. It articulates expectations for relations with Russia that should guide the allies’ approach, outlines the broad objectives that a transatlantic Russia policy should seek to accomplish, and in some cases more specific near-term actions the allies can take. The analysis reflects two years of dialogue that CNAS has conducted through its Transatlantic Forum on Russia (TFR). It brings together and builds on previous work facilitated by the Forum, including policy papers, op-eds, articles, a Senate Foreign Relations Committee testimony, “What Comes Next for U.S. Policy Toward Russia,” and other cited publications.1 The paper aims to provide fodder for policymakers and experts on both side of the Atlantic to debate and refine through continued dialogue, including through the future work of the TFR.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Transatlantic Relations, Dialogue, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

112. NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept: One Year On

Author:: LSE Ideas
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This Strategic Update summarises a roundtable discussion held at LSE IDEAS in July 2023. Contributors to the discussion were: General Sir James Everard, Stuart Austin, Professor Gordon Barrass, Professor Christopher Coker, Tom McKane, Hugh Sandeman, Susan Scholefield, and Peter Watkins. None of the content of the Strategic Update is attributable to any one individual. One year on from NATO’s Madrid 2022 summit, this Strategic Update address the 2022 NATO Strategic Concept and its implications for the future, especially regarding Russia’s war on Ukraine. The paper addresses the misalignment between preparations for defence and the real state of its armed forces, the UK’s symbolic support for Ukraine versus its capability, the concepts of resilience and deterrence, and finally the future of NATO’s relationship with Russia.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Armed Forces, Deterrence, Resilience, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

113. The Energy Crisis Requires a Military Solution that Compels NATO to Spend like Estonia

Author:: Leon Hartwell and Guillemette Guicherd
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In this LSE IDEAS Strategic Update, the authors focus on the intimate relationship between the Russia-Ukraine war and the energy crisis, both for Ukraine and the rest of Europe. It is argued that although Western sanctions against Russia’s energy sector have been a welcome political statement, they have so far been inadequate. Moreover, in the absence of expanding Ukraine’s defence systems, supplying the country with critical equipment to rebuild its energy sector while it is under constant Russian bombardment has limited impacts. Consequently, the authors argue that to solve the energy crisis, both for Ukraine and the rest of Europe, NATO and its allies need to “spend like Estonia.” Spending like Estonia would, among others, entail ramping up support for Ukraine to 1.1% of each member state’s GDP. Such an approach could help Ukraine to decisively win the war in 2023, and it would help to avert a potential energy crisis during the next winter. 
Topic:: NATO, Crisis Management, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Estonia

114. Brinkmanship and Nuclear Threat in the Ukraine War

Author:: Carl Conetta
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:: Western leaders and Kyiv pledge to “stay the course” despite Russian nuclear threats. But does western brinkmanship in the Ukraine war depend on denying there is a brink? This short article examines “nuclear threat denialism” and its function in war policy. It explores Moscow’s most likely but occluded nuclear option and the unique danger it represents. And the post examines the relevance of the Cuban Missile Crisis to the current conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Nuclear Weapons, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

115. “Nuclear Blackmail” – Misdirection in the Ukraine War Debate

Author:: Carl Conetta
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:: Moscow’s repeated warnings about possible world war and nuclear conflict in response to Western support for Ukraine’s fighting forces have elicited calls in the West to resist “nuclear blackmail.”[1] Some observers go further to claim that moderating Western policy in light of nuclear dangers would actually increase the likelihood of nuclear war, if not now then in the future.[2] Prof Timothy Snyder (Yale University) advances the argument succinctly. He writes: “All of you who are saying that we have to give in to [Russian] nuclear blackmail are making nuclear war more likely. Please stop. When you give in to it, you empower dictators to do it again, encourage worldwide nuclear proliferation, and make nuclear war much, much more likely.”[3] The stratagem of this argument is to turn concern about nuclear war against itself; To see the concern itself as the problem. This is wrong headed. There are a variety of effective and sensible ways to inhibit nuclear weapons proliferation, but categorically daring nuclear threats made by nuclear weapon superpowers fighting wars on their borders is not one of them.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Nuclear Weapons, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

116. Catastrophe: The Global Cost of the Ukraine War

Author:: Carl Conetta
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:: The war has been a disaster for Ukraine, but also a calamity for the world. This brief article provides a concise overview of the war’s profound global effects, beginning with the combatants’ cost in lives and treasure. Beyond this it assesses the war’s impact on global trade and economy; energy and food price inflation and their effects on poverty, hunger, and mortality; the redirection of humanitarian and official development assistance; the total sum of aid to the Ukrainian war effort, and the estimated cost of postwar reconstruction and recovery. Also examined is the war’s effect on global defense spending. The article also provides copious citations to support further inquiry.
Topic:: Economy, Trade, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

117. Tempting Armageddon: The Likelihood of Russian Nuclear Use is Misconstrued in Western Policy

Author:: Carl Conetta
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:: This article tracks and assesses the evolution of Russian nuclear threats in the Ukraine crisis, the related interplay between Moscow and Washington, the factors driving Russian thinking on nuclear use, the nuclear options available to Russia, and why US-NATO leaders and hawkish observers dismiss these options as impracticable. We conclude that the probability of Russian nuclear use, although conditionally modest, is rising as Ukraine’s armed forces push forward toward Crimea and the Russian border while also increasing their retaliatory attacks on recognized Russian territory. On its present trajectory, the crisis will soon run a risk of nuclear conflict greater than that experienced during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.
Topic:: NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Armed Forces, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

118. The Fate of Flat Tax in the EU countries

Author:: Krassen Stanchev
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Since 1989, flat tax (FT) reforms have been attempted in Europe and the EU only by ex-communist countries and Iceland. In the 1990s all ex-communist countries lowered and simplified their income taxes, often starting with corporate taxes. In the late 1990s and early 2000s they also reformed their social security systems. In many respects the tax reforms have never stopped, but with regard to income taxation they are less radical than in the 1990s and at the turn of this century. Even when there were reforms re-establishing progressive taxation, they have almost never returned to complex sets of nominal rates and a steep vertical ladder of progressive thresholds. This report attempts to reconstruct the reasons why EU countries moved to introduce proportional taxation on either corporate or personal income, or both, as well as the reasons behind five of them returning to progressive taxation. These reforms happened in different political and economic contexts. It would be difficult to identify unequivocal causality between flattening taxes and economic performance. However, the report compares the dynamics of economic growth and factors related to competitiveness for periods before and after the reforms were launched. The same effort has been made for indicators of wealth and disposable income. The analysis allows for a discussion of lessons learnt and of the prospects for further reforms. The report concludes that it seems impossible to prove that FT systems have been a key contributor to higher economic growth. However, it does seem that, if the social security contributions remain relatively stable and are financed by other tax revenues, they have a positive impact on fiscal performance and general welfare.
Topic:: Reform, European Union, Economic Growth, Tax Systems, Corporate Tax, and Flat Tax
Political Geography:: Europe and Post-Soviet Europe

119. Place of crowdfunding in financing investment projects in Poland

Author:: Marcin Czugan, Michał Karwasiński, Jarosław Mizera, and Ewa Balcerowicz
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Crowdfunding for business ventures, commonly referred to interchangeably as investment crowdfunding or equity crowdfunding, is a young practice. It first appeared in the USA (in 2009), and is now a rapidly expanding market in developed economies. The first case of investment crowdfunding in Poland, historically the first issuance, took place in 2012, barely three years later than in the United States. Such crowdfunding is a form of raising capital from the market (from investors) for the development of companies by entrepreneurs or owners, acting as the issuers. Specialised companies (fintechs) creating so-called crowdfunding platforms for matching demand with supply – and where offerings are announced and transactions carried out – are the market’s intermediaries. The report we are releasing discusses the specifics of investment crowdfunding, or in other words how this form of raising funds differs from older forms of external financing for businesses. It also presents the potential and the role of crowdfunding for the development of the capital market in Poland, describing demand for this type of financing, the level of interest among investors, and what both demand and interest depend on. In November 2021, European regulations were introduced specifically for this new market. Our authors analyse how these regulations will affect the future of equity crowdfunding in Poland. This issue of mBank-CASE Seminar Proceedings, on crowdfunding in Poland, follows on from a seminar held in March 2022. Three guests at the seminar were experts participating directly in the development of this new component of Poland’s capital market, therefore possessing unique knowledge of the specifics of crowdfunding, and its strengths and limitations.
Topic:: Finance, Innovation, Economic Development, Private Sector, Knowledge Economy, and Crowdfunding
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

120. The EU and CT-P/CVE in its external action

Author:: Dylan Macchiarini Crosson, Tatjana Stankovic, Pernille Rieker, and Steven Blockmans
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: This article re-frames the ongoing democracy versus security debate surrounding the European Union’s (EU) policies to counter terrorism and prevent/counter violent extremism (CT-P/CVE). Indeed, extant literature has primarily focused on how the EU’s CTP/CVE-specific emphasis on security concerns has come at the expense of attention towards good governance and social justice, thereby undermining the effectiveness of its approach. After reviewing general concepts discerned from previous research on the EU’s CT-P/CVE policy, tracing its approach over time, analysing key documents, and conducting interviews with policymakers, this analysis finds that the EU – in its words, funding, and policy implementation – also pays significant CT-P/CVE-relevant attention to the structural causes of radicalisation to violent extremism and terrorism by mobilising significant developmentoriented resources and diplomatic energy. By doing so, the EU’s CT-P/CVE policies balance an emphasis on security concerns and broader socio-economic and diplomatic engagement. However, the EU simultaneously de-emphasises good governance and peacebuilding, which must be reinforced and mainstreamed across its primary developmental engagement for the EU’s CT-P/CVE approach to be considered fully fit-for-purpose.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Governance, Violent Extremism, European Union, Democracy, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Europe

121. One year of war in Ukraine

Author:: Christian Leffler
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: It has been just over one year since Russia began its brutal war of aggression against Ukraine. In that year, the EU has stepped up and provided copious amounts of support to Ukraine – economic and military, as well as providing a safe haven for millions of Ukrainians who have fled the fighting. As the conflict has now entered its second year, this CEPS Explainer dives deep to analyse what has defined the first year and then expands on what the EU needs to concretely do in the second if Ukraine is to have any hope of triumphing over the invaders. This will require vision, courage and boldness from European leaders. The alternative if they fail? A rules-based international order replaced by a ruthless multipolar world defined by competing spheres of influence.
Topic:: European Union, Armed Conflict, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

122. The Sunshine Problem: Climate Change and Managed Decline in the European Union

Author:: Timur Ergen and Luuk Schmitz
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:: Decarbonization requires the winding down of – economically – fully viable, if not highly prosperous, lines of economic activity. Different from past episodes of industrial restructuring revolving around the managed decline of sunset industries, accelerating climate change requires reallocation away from economic activities where the metaphorical sun is still shining. Firms, owners, workers, regions, and polities structurally rely on these sources of prosperity and have interwoven their past and future lives with them. We argue that this problem has created a space for state actors to experiment with vertical industrial policies to manage the reallocation of resources from polluting to non-polluting activities. We illustrate this dynamic by investigating the least-likely case of the European Union, a polity heavily tilted towards market governance. European climate policymakers, we argue, have incrementally moved away from the primacy of regulatory, market-making tools and have introduced a plethora of vertical instruments to shift resources away from climate-harming fields. This experimentation with vertical policies unfolds against the backdrop of a thirtyyear institutional legacy of single market-oriented policy in the energy field.
Topic:: Climate Change, Industrial Policy, European Union, Social Cohesion, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Europe

123. A Bitter Adjustment for German Family Capitalism: Succession and a Changing Ownership Transfer Regime

Author:: Isabell Stamm and Allan Sandham
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:: Germany is known for its family-owned businesses that transfer ownership across generations. However, business owners in Germany increasingly envision selling their business beyond the family, which fundamentally changes the institutionalized way private ownership of businesses is transferred. In this paper, we analyze and explain this fundamental change in German family capitalism since the 1990s. Drawing on a sociology of ownership, we view family succession as a transfer regime and show how this regime has been problematized and gradually reframed. Based on analysis of a rich corpus of documents, archival materials, and twenty-seven expert interviews, we show how a new transfer regime – the exit regime – emerges, which coordinates ownership transfer among founders through matchmaking. Our study contributes to research on family capitalism and succession by demonstrating how family capital moves toward the financial sector without becoming financial capital as it loses the family and gains the founder as personalized points of reference.
Topic:: Regime Change, Capitalism, Family, Succession, and Ownership
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

124. What Growth Strategies Do Citizens Want? Evidence from a New Survey

Author:: Lucio Baccaro, Bjorn Bremer, and Erik Neimanns
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:: While research on the economic characteristics of growth models across countries is now extensive, research on the politics of growth models is still in its infancy, even though governments routinely pursue different strategies to generate growth. In particular, we lack evidence on (1) whether citizens have coherent preferences towards growth strategies, (2) what growth strategies citizens prefer, and (3) what shapes their preferences. We address these questions through a new survey of public opinion in Germany, Italy, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, which exemplify different models. We find that preferences for growth strategies are consistent with other policy preferences and are meaningfully structured by class and retirement status, and to a lesser extent by sector of employment. At the same time, differences across class and sector are small, and a large majority of respondents across countries favor wage-led growth. This suggests there is a “representation gap,” since this particular growth strategy is in crisis everywhere.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Economic Growth, Representation, Macroeconomics, Comparative Capitalism, and Growth Models
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Germany, Italy, and Sweden

125. Turning No Tides: Union Effects on Partisan Preferences and the Working-Class Metamorphosis

Author:: Sinisa Hadziabdic
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:: Relying on panel data for Germany, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States, the paper examines the impact of union membership on partisan preferences. By leveraging panel data to control for time-invariant selection effects, we show that unions exert a small consistent left‑wing influence on the average wage earner who becomes affiliated, but they are no longer able to modify the preferences of working-class members. A longitudinal approach reveals that changes in partisan preferences can be linked to members’ preexisting predispositions and to the prevalent political views within unions. Unions mainly attract individuals who already share their political inclinations before joining. These preexisting left-wing convictions allow an additional left-wing shift to take place through a value congruence mechanism provoked by interactions with long-term union members who are even more left-wing oriented than the newcomers. Symmetrically, working-class joiners exhibit less pronounced left-wing inclinations before becoming affiliated, a gap that widens further after they join as a consequence of their unmet expectations.
Topic:: Politics, Class, Political Parties, Data, and Trade Unions
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

126. Top Wealth and Its Historical Origins: An Analysis of Germany’s Largest Privately Held Fortunes in 2019

Author:: Daria Tisch and Emma Ischinsky
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:: Rising wealth inequality is both a topic in recent policy discussion and in the social sciences. Despite the general interest in wealth concentration, we know only little about the largest privately held fortunes. To help fill this gap we analyze the historical origins of Germany’s 1,032 largest fortunes in 2019. In particular, we identify the share of entrenched fortunes – fortunes which date back to the beginning of the twentieth century – and ask to what extent they differ from more recently established ones. Furthermore, we examine in an exploratory way if entrenched fortunes are connected to fortunes with more recent origins through family lines. We use a journalistic rich list published by the manager magazin in 2019, which we link with both rich lists from 1912/1914 and Wikidata. We find that about eight percent of today’s fortunes can be traced back to fortunes held by the same families in 1913. Regression analyses show that entrenched fortunes rank on average higher on the rich list than the remaining ones. Descriptive network analyses indicate that some of today’s largest fortunes are intertwined through marital lines, hinting at social closure at the top. Our findings indicate that the accumulation and perpetuation of fortunes over many generations is an important feature of top wealth in Germany.
Topic:: Inequality, Family, Elites, Wealth, Inheritance, and Network Analysis
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

127. The EU and the Transformed Nuclear Context since the War in Ukraine

Author:: Clara Portela
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces in February 2022 has entirely transformed the European security landscape, bringing war to the European Union’s doorstep. Importantly, the war features a nuclear dimension that manifests itself in consequential ways, including Moscow’s nuclear sabre-rattling and its denunciation of the last surviving nuclear arms control treaty. This unleashed intriguing reactions, like a surprisingly tough resort to sanctions by the EU, or the shrinking of neutrality on the continent. However, while support for nuclear deterrence has increased in some NATO countries, support for arms control remains strong too. Meanwhile, nuclear disarmament advocates have not shifted their stance as a result of the crisis.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, European Union, Nonproliferation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

128. The Socioeconomic and Gendered Organization of Social Reproduction in the Anglo-American Welfare Model: Transformations in the US and UK over Four Decades

Author:: Katherine Moos and Pilar Gonalons-Pons
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Drawing on both gender regime theory and social reproduction theory, this paper employs survey data to offer a quantitative comparative analysis of the socioeconomic and gendered organization of social reproduction in the United States and United Kingdom from 1973 to 2013. Our analysis focuses on household production, paid work, and government social benefits to examine how men and women of different socioeconomic groups contribute to household social reproduction. We combine data from the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS), the Multinational Time-Use Surveys (MTUS), and additional sources to construct an integrated dataset of harmonized household survey data. We find that household social reproduction in the US and UK reflect variations and path dependence within the Anglo-American model. While our results illustrate important shifts in the organization of social reproduction related to neoliberalism and feminism, we do not observe that social reproduction in either country has been fundamentally destabilized, refamiliarized, or degendered.
Topic:: Welfare, Socioeconomics, Gender, and Social Reproduction
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, North America, and United States of America

129. Factsheet: Giorgia Meloni

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Giorgia Meloni was elected Prime Minister of Italy in 2022. In 2012, she co-founded the neo-fascist Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy), which she has been leading since 2014. Since 2020, she has been the president of the European Conservatives and Reformists Party (ECR). Meloni is known for making many anti-Muslim comments during her election campaigns.
Topic:: Migration, Islamophobia, Far Right, Muslims, Giorgia Meloni, and Alt-Right
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

130. Factsheet: Vienna Forum on Countering Segregation and Extremism in the Context of Integration

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: The Vienna Forum on Countering Segregation and Extremism in the Context of Integration was initiated by Austrian Minister of Women and Integration Susanne Raab (ÖVP) to make Vienna “a center in the fight against political Islam.” Eleven European countries are part of the conference. Once a year, the forum brings together ministers and bureaucrats from several European countries alongside hundreds of terrorism and deradicalization experts, some of whom are known to advocate for policies that criminalize Muslim civil society.
Topic:: Islamophobia, Integration, Regional Organizations, and Susanne Raab
Political Geography:: Europe and Austria

131. Factsheet: Manfred Weber

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Manfred Weber is a German politician who has served as President of the European People’s Party (EPP) since 2022, and as Leader of the EPP Group in the European Parliament since 2014. He has been a Member of the European Parliament (MEP) from Germany since 2004. He is a member of the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU), which is a member of the EPP. Weber has made statements alleging that Muslims and Islam are a threat to European culture.
Topic:: European Union, Islamophobia, Catholic Church, Xenophobia, Christian Social Union, and European People's Party (EPP)
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, and Austria

132. Factsheet: Magnus Ranstorp

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Magnus Ranstorp is an associate professor of political science. Since 2022, he has been the head of research at the Center for Total Defense and Societal Security (CTSS). He regularly publishes opinion pieces and is invited to media outlets as an expert on various subjects. Ranstorp has promoted conspiracy theories accusing European Muslim organizations of being tied to the Muslim Brotherhood, and is a leading voice against Muslim civil society in Sweden.
Topic:: Islamophobia, Islamism, Muslim Brotherhood, and Magnus Ranstorp
Political Geography:: Europe and Sweden

133. Factsheet: Sameh Egyptson

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Sameh Egyptson is a Swedish academic and highly visible public commentator. He is hired as an expert by public agencies and right-wing political parties. Egyptson is engaged in spreading conspiracy theories about an alleged Islamization of Sweden by the Muslim Brotherhood.
Topic:: Islamophobia, Academia, Muslim Brotherhood, and Sameh Egyptson
Political Geography:: Europe and Sweden

134. Factsheet: Friedrich Merz

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Friedrich Merz is a German politician. In 2022, he became the leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and leader of the CDU parliamentary group in the German federal parliament, the Bundestag. He has made anti-Muslim comments and represents the conservative right-wing camp within his party.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Islamophobia, and Friedrich Merz
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

135. Factsheet: Stop Extremism

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Stop Extremism is a Europe-wide initiative demanding a stronger fight against extremism. It wants to introduce a joint EU-wide watch list of individuals and organizations that are labeled as extremists. A number of its proponents and supporters have a history of making discriminatory claims about Muslims and supporting anti-Muslim legislation in the name of defending liberal values.
Topic:: Violent Extremism, European Union, Discrimination, Islamophobia, and Muslims
Political Geography:: Europe

136. Factsheet: Sigrid Herrmann-Marschall

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Sigrid Herrmann-Marschall is a widely quoted German blogger, who is often invited as an expert on Islamism. She regularly argues that the government needs to take stricter measures to tackle Islamism in German society. She frequently lectures, trains, and publishes in a variety of newspapers and is referenced as an expert by many political parties including the far-right. More recently, she reportedly served as an expert on behalf of the far-right party, Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Islamophobia, Far Right, Islamism, and Sigrid Herrmann-Marschall
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

137. Factsheet: Nina Scholz

Author:: Nina Scholz
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Nina Scholz is a German political commentator and writer on Islamism based in Vienna, Austria. Scholz is often presented as an expert on Islam and Islamism by the Austrian media and policy circles. She produces many texts with Heiko Heinisch, with whom she served as an expert for Operation Luxor, an unlawful raid targeting the homes of 60 prominent Austrian Muslims, carried out by the Austrian government in 2020.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Islamophobia, and Islamism
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, and Austria

138. Ten Recommendations for Germany’s Feminist Development Policy

Author:: Ina Friesen and Alma Wisskirchen
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: In early 2022, Germany’s development minister Svenja Schulze announced the adoption of a feminist development policy. With this announcement, Germany joins a growing group of governments that have adopted or declared the adoption of an explicitly feminist perspective in their external policies. Drawing on these governments’ policies and the observations and recommendations by civil society and researchers, this Discussion Paper outlines ten key recommendations for Germany’s first feminist development policy. The first three recommendations focus on the conceptual foundation of the policy and lay out the importance of 1) an inclusive definition of gender, 2) a clarification of the feminist approach and the policy’s overall goal as well as 3) the need for an intersectional approach. The second set of recommendations concerns the implementation of the policy and stresses the importance of 4) a permanent cooperation with gender-focused and feminist organisations and 5) the necessity to increase funding for gender-related objectives in general and 6) for feminist organisations in particular. Further recommendations include 7) widening the range of sectors that target gender equality through a transformative approach and context-sensitive programming and by providing mechanisms to monitor and evaluate the implementation of the strategy’s goals, objectives and activities. The last three recommendations emphasise institutional aspects and the importance of 8) creating an institutional environment that best supports gender equality within the development ministry and its main implementing organisations, 9) the necessity of a coherent feminist approach between the different ministries, and 10) the importance of addressing possible challenges the ministry might face in the implementation of its feminist development policy.
Topic:: Development, Inequality, Feminism, and Gender
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

139. The EU-CEAP Impacts on Developing Countries: An Analysis of the Plastic Packaging, Electric Vehicles and Batteries Sectors

Author:: Jenny To
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The European Union Circular Economy Action Plan (EU-CEAP) is key to transitioning to a circular economy and climate neutrality under the EU Green Deal – and developing and emerging countries (DECs) play important roles. They are essential for primary material chains, for example, for electric vehicle batteries. DECs are also part of secondary material chains, and Europe relies on them to recycle its plastic packaging. Despite the crucial roles that DECs play in Europe’s transition to a circular economy, literature and policy discourses have not yet examined the EU-CEAP’s impact. This discussion paper fills this gap by outlining the EU-CEAP’s challenges and opportunities for DECs and presents recommendations for development cooperation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, European Union, Batteries, Electric Vehicles, and Plastic
Political Geography:: Europe

140. Just Transitions: A Review of How to Decarbonise Energy Systems While Addressing Poverty and Inequality Reduction

Author:: Daniele Malerba
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Germany promotes “just transition” as a guiding principle for the global transition to a socially and environmentally sustainable economy that incorporates the necessary climate, environmental and energy policy measures. This includes the urgent transformation of economies to become emission neutral while ensuring a process whereby poverty and inequality are reduced, and no one is left behind. The German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE), the World Bank and the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) worked together to explore ways to implement the concept of just transition in German development cooperation. The two papers that have resulted from this process outline approaches to a “just transition for all” and highlight its potential to reduce poverty and inequality (SDG 1 and SDG 10). In recent decades, the interdependencies between social and ecological development have become clear: negative effects of climate change particularly affect vulnerable and marginalised groups living in poverty. At the same time, social inequalities contribute to an exacerbation of climate change. A just transition must effectively address the consequences at the international, national, regional and local levels. Both papers provide an overview of existing approaches and challenges to foster a “just transition for all”. They offer different but complementary perspectives on an increasingly important complex of topics. This first paper, by DIE, takes a broad perspective by considering the decarbonisation of the energy sector as a whole, outlining the connections between just transition, poverty and inequality, and exploring how to ensure a just transition (for both workers and consumers) through the use of different social protection mechanisms. It argues that it is possible to make energy transitions just, but that properly designed combinations of socio-economic and climate policies are needed. A second paper, by the World Bank, zooms in on the transition away from coal. It lays out key social and community impacts resulting from the decommissioning of coal assets, based on experience gained from World Bank operations and from industrialised countries, and articulates an enhanced approach to supporting the coal transition. Both provide practical recommendations for international development cooperation in general, and for German development cooperation in particular.
Topic:: Development, Poverty, Inequality, Economy, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

141. Mine Action as a Confidence- and Security-building Measure in the OSCE Region

Author:: Claudia Ditel
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Mine action has the potential to incentivise confidence- and security-building measures (CSBMs), because it could contribute to development and reconciliation through the creation of communities of practice among individuals from civil society and at the grassroots level as part of post-conflict reconstruction. Although many Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) participating States are contaminated by mines, mine action as a CSBM has scarcely been included in peace negotiations, because it is thought that it might hinder the peace process. Yet mine action, if “depoliticised”, could be implemented independently of peace negotiations through the creation of spaces for cooperation in demining projects of common interest to rival communities. The OSCE is well placed to propose these strategies, especially in Eastern Ukraine, Georgia, and Nagorno-Karabakh, which are not only affected by protracted conflicts with limited engagement of the population in the peace process but are also highly contaminated by mines.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Violence, and Landmines
Political Geography:: Europe

142. Blockchain Technology: An Innovative Policy Tool for Enhancing Conventional Arms Control and Verification

Author:: Nicolo Miotto
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Blockchain represents an unprecedented opportunity for enhancing conventional arms control (CAC) and verification. Based on the principles of transparency, verifiability, and predictability, this state-of-the-art technology could build confidence and facilitate the implementation of arms control mechanisms. Blockchain-based so-called “smart contracts” have advantageous practical implications for CAC. They could improve the verification of countries’ compliance with their CAC obligations by enhancing monitoring procedures and could strengthen arms export controls by improving treaty signatories’ ability to monitor weapons and ammunition supply chains. Reinforcing the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) framework for conventional ammunition control with a permissioned blockchain would provide greater confidentiality and improve monitoring and data verifiability, thus strengthening the OSCE’s CAC regimes.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Blockchain
Political Geography:: Europe

143. Commitment to Control Weaponised Artificial Intelligence: A Step Forward for the OSCE and European Security

Author:: Anna Nadibaidze
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The global debate on weaponised artificial intelligence (AI) often focuses on futuristic “killer robots”, which risks overlooking the fact that these technologies are already part of the security landscape. Diminishing human control over the use of force and the differences in states’ discourse pose a considerable risk for European security and stability. The impact of AI is not inevitable, and states should address this issue through political means, such as a political declaration with a commitment to ensuring human control over the use of force. With its inclusive membership, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) can and should become the platform through which its participating States can take a step forward in the global debate on weaponised AI.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Artificial Intelligence, and OSCE
Political Geography:: Europe

144. “Open” Telecom Networks (Open RAN): Towards a Reconfiguration of International Competition in 5G?

Author:: Mathilde Velliet
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: In line with the anti-Huawei diplomatic campaign of the Trump and Biden administrations, the United States has promoted an alternative: Open RAN, a concept defined by "open" network architectures. At the intersection of 5G geopolitics and standards, what risks and opportunities does Open RAN present for European technological sovereignty? The Radio Access Network (RAN) is the radio part of a mobile telecommunications system that enables the connection between a mobile device (such as a phone or computer) and the core network. While traditionally a single vendor (such as Huawei, Ericsson, or Nokia) provides a “proprietary” or “closed” solution for this part of the network, Open RAN (Open Radio Access Network) is a concept describing disaggregated architectures that divide the RAN into several bricks connected by open interfaces. The objective is to allow the operator to buy these hardware and software bricks from various suppliers, and to choose freely the most suitable option for each part. In the current context of a concentrated 5G market, dominated by three major manufacturers and even facing the risk of an Ericsson-Nokia duopoly with the exclusion of Huawei from many countries, telecom operators emphasize the flexibility and diversification of suppliers allowed by Open RAN, which would allow both more innovation and cost reduction. In line with its diplomatic campaign against “unreliable” Chinese suppliers, the United States has actively promoted Open RAN as an alternative. However, Open RAN seems far from being a panacea for Europe: in addition to the difficulties that remain in terms of maturity, security, performance and transparency of the specification process, it risks increasing European dependence on foreign suppliers. Although Huawei is not part of the international bodies working on Open RAN (such as the Telecom Infra Project or the O-RAN Alliance), many companies close to the Chinese political and military authorities are. Beyond the question of supplier security, American lobbying is linked to the commercial opportunity that Open RAN represents for American companies, currently leaders in the cloud, software and generic hardware components…even though they do not have a major 5G champion. Open RAN is therefore an issue at the crossroads of the geopolitics of 5G and standards, to which the European Union is beginning to provide a common political and analytical response, despite the diversity of positions among member states.
Topic:: 5G, Telecommunications, and International Competition
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

145. The European Union Industrial Strategy: Reconciling Competition and Geoeconomic Challenges

Author:: Marie Krpata
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The EU’s basic assumptions, on which it grounds its economic and trade power, are being steadily cast into doubt. The EU’s main trade partners, the US and China, increasingly set their sights on securing their supply chains, which may further a potential decoupling. This shift is likely to be accelerated in the context of growing geopolitical instability. Multilateralism and international trade principles are increasingly challenged by a weakening of international institutions and the recourse to asymmetric market practices, while technological leadership will be key in the struggle for global leadership. Being fundamentally built on economic openness, the EU is comparatively ill-equipped to respond to these developments. Its biggest economy, Germany, is prompted to assert itself if it does not want to lose in competitiveness. While the EU is developing strategies, policies, and instruments to adapt to this change of circumstances and increase its resilience, a shift in mentalities, leaving behind political and economic short-term interests, will be necessary.
Topic:: European Union, Trade Policy, Industry, Supply Chains, Geoeconomics, and Competition
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

146. Closing the Gap Between Citizen Participation and Mainstream Politics

Author:: Richard Youngs
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Over the last several years, citizen assemblies, juries, and panels have spread across Europe. Most of these have been run at the local or subnational level, a few at the national or even transnational level. Most have been called by public authorities, a smaller number created in more bottom-up fashion by civic groups. They all share a distinguishing feature: citizens are randomly selected to participate in debates about specific policies. In aggregate, these initiatives can be referred to as selection- or sortition-based participation. As this wave of sortition-based participation consolidates, attention has turned to its wider political effects. While there is generally much to celebrate about this rise in participation, there remains a widespread feeling that the practice is not yet strongly enough embedded in mainstream politics to move the needle on overall democratic quality. Indeed, experiences suggest that standard channels of decisionmaking and political debate often undercut the influence of sortition initiatives. This paper examines how sortition-based deliberation might be embedded more firmly and effectively within other democratic arenas. Its focus is not on the design and process of sortition forums themselves—many other publications have offered this level of evaluation in recent years.1 Rather, it explores options for building sortition-based forms of participation more fully into longer-standing channels of mainstream politics. If selection-based citizen participation is to have wider relevance to democratic renewal, it is important to identify the political factors that can either stifle or oxygenate its potential. This paper assesses what steps might be taken better to prevent politics from pushing sortition-based participation to the margins and what can be done to infuse politics more widely with the benefits of such participation. The first section of this paper distinguishes between two levels of embedding sortition-based participation. One relates to a relatively focused agenda of so-called institutionalization; the other to more general shifts in political dynamics. The paper then considers progress and obstacles to embedding sortition-based participation at each of these two levels—while suggesting that it is the second, wider political understanding that is especially important. The final section offers five guidelines for assessing how the gap between sortition-based participation and other sites of political activity might in the future be narrowed.
Topic:: Politics, Citizenship, and Participation
Political Geography:: Europe

147. Russia’s Wartime Cyber Operations in Ukraine: Military Impacts, Influences, and Implications

Author:: Jon Bateman
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: This paper examines the military effectiveness of Russia’s wartime cyber operations in Ukraine,1 the reasons why these operations have not had greater strategic impact, and the lessons applicable to other countries’ military cyber efforts. It builds on previous analyses by taking a more systematic and detailed approach that incorporates a wider range of publicly available data. A major purpose of this paper is to help bridge the divide between cyber-specific and general military analysis of the Russia-Ukraine war. Most analysis of Russian cyber operations in Ukraine has been produced by cyber specialists writing for their own field, with limited integration of non-cyber military sources and concepts. Conversely, leading accounts of the war as a whole include virtually no mention of cyber operations.2 To begin filling the gap, this paper places Russian cyber operations in Ukraine within the larger frame of Moscow’s military objectives, campaigns, and kinetic activities.
Topic:: Cybersecurity, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

148. Will France’s Africa Policy Hold Up?

Author:: Corentin Cohen
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: During his first term, French President Emmanuel Macron sought to revitalize his country’s diplomatic outreach to countries throughout Africa. Some aspects of this pivot were designed to more directly address the legacy of French colonialism in Francophone countries. He also sensed that the growing stature of non-Western powers like China has given African counterparts greater latitude to pursue ties amid heightened diplomatic competition among a host of other countries both in Europe and elsewhere. In pursuing this strategy, Macron has sought to promote a vision of French diplomacy with Africa through greater foreign aid and more robust people-to-people ties grounded in a spirit of partnerships between equals. While Macron’s efforts have created an opening for renewed relationships, this pivot has not been as seamless as he had hoped. Bureaucratic inertia and stovepiping in French foreign policy circles have at times meant that implementation of these policies has lagged. In certain cases, Macron’s own nationalistic appeals during his recent reelection bid have appeared to undercut his attempts to make amends for France’s troubling colonial history. Meanwhile the French president’s attempts to deepen economic, people-to-people, and security ties in more equitable ways have fallen short of lofty expectations, with past practices proving harder than expected to jettison. For Macron’s ambitions for French relations with African countries to keep their momentum, the president and his team must take an earnest look at what has worked well and what can still be improved.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Diplomacy, Partnerships, Emmanuel Macron, and Degrowth
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and France

149. My Country, Right or Wrong: Russian Public Opinion on Ukraine

Author:: Denis Volkov and Andrei Kolesnikov
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, Western governments, including the United States, immediately condemned what they described as “Vladimir Putin’s war.”1 Surely, this formulation was no accident. It was aimed, first and foremost, at drawing a distinction between the actions of the Kremlin and the attitudes of ordinary Russians. There was optimism that ordinary Russians would not countenance a war against a neighboring country.2 But hopes of Russian grassroots opposition to the war were swiftly dashed. Indeed, public opinion polls have consistently shown overwhelming support (70 percent or higher) for what Moscow calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine. Contrary to expectations, Putin’s popularity has also seen a boost, similar to what happened in the immediate wake of the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Partly in response to these indicators, figures like Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have called for a visa ban for all Russian passport holders, with an exception for people whose safety is at risk or who are vulnerable to political persecution.3 According to Zelenskyy, “[T]he most important sanctions are to close the borders—because the Russians are taking away someone else’s land” and Russians should “live in their own world until they change their philosophy.” He added, “The population picked this government and they’re not fighting it, not arguing with it, not shouting at it.” Such sentiments are echoed in calls by some European politicians, such as Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin, for an EU ban on tourist visas. “It’s not right that at the same time as Russia is waging an aggressive, brutal war of aggression in Europe, Russians can live a normal life, travel in Europe, be tourists. It’s not right,” Marin said in mid-August.4 At the same time, a careful reading of popular Russian attitudes toward the war reveals important nuances that all too often are overlooked. First and foremost is the fact that rather than consolidating Russian society, the conflict has exacerbated existing divisions on a diverse array of issues, including support for the regime. Put another way, the impression that Putin now has the full support of the Russian public is simply incorrect. A more careful reading of sociological data, including conversations with focus group participants and quantitative research, presents a far more complex picture of Russian society.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Conflict, Vladimir Putin, Society, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

150. Pari Passu Lost and Found: The Origins of Sovereign Bankruptcy 1798-1873

Author:: Marc Flandreau
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Verdicts returned by modern courts of justice in the context of sovereign debt lawsuits have upheld a ratable (proportional) interpretation of so-called “pari passu” clauses in debt contracts which, literally, promise creditors they will be dealt with equitably. Such verdicts have given individual creditors the right to interfere with payments to others, in situation where the sovereign had failed to make proportional payments. Contract originalists argue that this interpretation of pari passu clauses has no historical foundation. Historically, they claim, pari passu clauses never granted individual creditors a unilateral right to block payments to other bondholders assenting to a government debt restructuring proposal. This article shows this claim is incorrect. Drawing on novel archival research, it argues that pari passu clauses find one potent historical origin in the operation of a now forgotten sovereign bankruptcy tribunal, the London stock exchange. Under the law of the stock exchange, departure from ratable payments did create a unilateral right for individual creditors to interfere with sovereign debt discharges. In fact, ratable distributions provided the touchstone for the stock exchange sanctioned sovereign debt discharge system. What is more, sophisticated contract drafters availed themselves of the logic. The result was a weaponization of pari passu clauses, and their inscription into sovereign debt covenants in the 19th century. The article concludes that the modern debate on the role of clauses in sovereign debt contracts cannot be held without thorough reconsideration of the history of sovereign bankruptcy.
Topic:: Finance, Banking, Stock Markets, and Sovereign Debt
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and England

151. Separating electricity from gas prices through Green Power Pools: Design options and evolution

Author:: Michael Grubb and Drummond Pike
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper develops a detailed proposal for an efficient way to channel the value of large-scale renewables, which have become much cheaper than gas-driven wholesale electricity prices, to consumers at ‘cost-plus’ prices. This would reduce the fiscal pressure on governments for market- wide subsidies and offer more stable support for consumers most in need. We detail how this ‘green power pool’ approach could interact with the wholesale market to ensure firm power, also bringing transparency to the cost of balancing the variable renewables output, and maintaining incentives for efficient supply and demand responses. We illustrate the approach with reference to the cost and volume trajectories of UK renewables backed by government CfDs, targeted initially to particular consumer groups, as a first step in a wider transition towards direct consumer access to cheap renewables.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Green Technology, Renewable Energy, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

152. The EU Green Deal. A new momentum for democratic governance in the MENA region?

Author:: Dina Fakoussa
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: Dysfunctional governance and repression lie at the heart of social, economic and political challenges and crises in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The nature of governance, whether autocratic, corrupt, crony capitalist, highly centralised, patriarchal and/or merely incompetent, led to alarming socioeconomic and political grievances. These grievances accumulated over decades sparking region- wide protests in 2010, 2011 and subsequent years. Without major improvements in the quality of democratic governance,1 further crises are inevitable, and sustainable stability will remain unattainable, with major negative repercussions for the European Union (EU) itself. Naturally, climate change is augmenting these challenges and increasing the pressure on government performance. The EU Green Deal addresses this uniquely urgent matter in need of assertiveness, namely climate change with its worldwide palpable repercussions and impact for all. The deal has serious implications for economies and hence societies in MENA countries. At the same time, it could and must serve as a vehicle for improved democratic governance in the region. This is also in the interests of the EU’s green ambitions, as lasting environmentally sound and socially just policies in countries beyond the EU will hardly materialise without improvements in the area of democratic governance. The two subject areas are mutually dependent; hence, the durable success of climate policies is unlikely without being buttressed by democratic components. This understanding needs to be mirrored in all EU policies and programmes targeting the region by interweaving climate policies with democratic governance.
Topic:: Climate Change, Governance, European Union, Democracy, Repression, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

153. Youth unemployment in the South of the Mediterranean: A chronic challenge to development and stability

Author:: Hussein Suleiman
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: Unemployment among youth, aged 15 to 24 years old according to the International Labour Organization (ILO)’s definition, is the highest in the south of the Mediterranean, and in the larger Middle East and North Africa (MENA), compared to other regions in the world. This problem is exacerbated by very low labour force participation rates for this age group in the region, also compared to other regions. Furthermore, this issue of high youth unemployment is not a recent development but has been chronic in the region for at least the last three decades, as shown in detail further on. Youth unemployment south of the Mediterranean is a major challenge, and a symptom of deeply-rooted problems in the region’s labour markets. Unemployment is largely a youth unemployment issue. The problem is mainly one of new entrants’ transition from school age to work (Assaad & Krafft, 2016) but with consequences that could easily shape the entire life trajectories of individuals in the region and also have widespread impacts on their societies and even neighbouring countries. Such worrying and chronic challenges in the region’s labour markets have been largely shaped by structural deeply-rooted issues, reflected in the rise of work informality as a result of falling public employment, and a slow growth of formal private employment in the region throughout the last few decades, which will be discussed in detail in the paper. This paper aims to provide policy recommendations to address such chronic problems in the region, focusing mainly on Southern Mediterranean countries in North Africa, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco, excluding Libya because of the exceptional impact of the civil war on its labour market during the last decade. The paper first explores some prominent implications of low employment among the youth, for their own lives and their societies. It then proceeds to examine the magnitude of the problem in the selected countries and its development across the last three decades, relying mostly on ILO estimates, which, unlike national estimates, have a few missing entries in that extended period, and also allow for disaggregation by age groups and gender that might not always be available for national estimates. Next, the paper highlights the now-established explanation of the youth employment problem in the region and how it developed, before finally moving to the recommended policy measures, both domestic and through regional cooperation, to address this chronic problem that has played a major role in the radical political and social shocks in the region in the last decade.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Employment, Youth, and Unemployment
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean

154. Developing EU Trade Incentives: A Support Tool for Refugee Self-Reliance and Host Community Resilience in Turkey

Author:: Basak Kale
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The European Union (EU) is developing innovative mechanisms to investigate the root causes of migration in order to offer better socioeconomic opportunities both to migrants and host communities. These mechanisms and actions require multi-country bilateral and regional assistance tools to support different partner countries. Innovative and out-of-the-box ideas include multiple countries and various stakeholders. They are developed to provide cooperation solutions in different regions to have a wider impact on the causes and implications of migration. Despite these efforts, political, social, economic and environmental causes continue to generate human mobility around and beyond the immediate neighbourhood of the EU. The Arab Spring and the civil war in Syria have been creating human mobility in the EU neighbourhood. The war made approximately 7 million Syrians flee to neighbouring countries. Turkey is hosting around 3.7 million Syrians and another half a million asylum seekers and refugees from other regions (DGMM, 2021; UNHCR, 2021). The presence of Syrians in Turkey, together with other refugees benefitting from international protection, has become protracted. The efforts to create durable solutions in the form of “voluntary return, resettlement or local integration” have not yet successfully provided sustainable solutions. Turkey does not pursue an official state integration policy to integrate asylum seekers, refugees and the Syrians under temporary protection (STP). However, STPs, asylum seekers and refugees are becoming increasingly integrated into their host communities through informal and local integration mechanisms (Kale & Erdoğan, 2019). The delay in the access to formal employment and challenges in receiving formal employment permits aggregate the difficulties in the inclusion of refugees into formal employment schemes. Summer 2015 has shown that when there is a lack of economic and employment opportunities for asylum seekers, refugees and persons under temporary protection the incentive to have onward movement to other countries persists and the possibilities of integration in host communities stay low. It is clear that resilience-building and livelihood support through formal work is essential for vulnerable populations to have dignified living conditions in host countries. The EU-Turkey Statement in 2016 triggered the development of changes in the legal framework of international protection and migration policy. The Statement paved the way for the preparation of regulations on work permits for persons under temporary and international protection (Official Gazette, 2016). Legal developments targeted the acceleration of the economic integration of refugees into the Turkish labour market through formal employment. However, the difficulties in getting formal work permits resulted in only 132,000 issued until 2019. This indicates that approximately 4% of the STP working population has formal employment (UN Turkey, 2020). This percentage more or less matches the International Labor Organization (ILO) estimations (ILO, 2020). As a result, the majority of the refugee population is working informally, underpaid (Balkan & Tümen, 2016), without formal social and health security mechanisms, in unskilled jobs that are not wanted by Turkish citizens (Sunata, 2017). Informal employment has been a key element contributing to the lack of durable solutions and a protracted process. In Turkey, informal employment is widespread even among the host community members. It is estimated that there is about 30% of labour in host community among all sectors working unregistered. Informal employment is higher in sectors such as agriculture but significantly lower in the industrial sector. The COVID- 19 pandemic has also aggravated the increasingly poor state of the Turkish economy (Akay Ertürk, 2020). Previously, there were continuous efforts through FRIT (Facility for Refugees in Turkey) and 3RP (Regional Refugee and Resilience Plan) projects with programmes focusing on improving the employability of refugees in the Turkish labour market as well as support for the entrepreneurship capacities of the refugees in accessing the formal labour market. However, under the current economic conditions these projects are failing to generate a significant long-term impact on employment for refugees (Özçürümez & İçduygu, 2020). These projects provide short-term trainings or restricted employment possibilities while including a very limited number of participants. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic conditions have shown that these livelihood support arrangements when they are not based on rights-based approaches overtime can transform back into humanitarian aid services (Kale & Yavçan, 2020). Long-term policy planning needs to include other incentive mechanisms that will cover multi-country and multi-region solutions. In the long run, if vulnerable populations in the host societies turn into the most vulnerable requiring humanitarian and emergency aid, the incentive for secondary movements to third countries can be high.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and International Community
Political Geography:: Europe and Turkey

155. Could the EU’s New Agenda for the Mediterranean Turn Climate Change from a “Threat Multiplier” into an “Opportunities Multiplier”?

Author:: Desirée A.L Quagliarotti
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The Mediterranean countries are characterised by evident gaps in terms of demographic growth, socioeconomic conditions and natural resources availability, which undermine the process of Euro-Mediterranean cohesion and create a situation of structural weakness that makes them extremely vulnerable to destabilising events. In just over a decade, the Mediterranean region has been affected by major changes that, at first glance, do not seem to be related to each other. The wave of pro-democracy protests called the “Arab Spring” that has plagued the regimes of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) since 2010 has shown how climate-driven crop failures in major food exporting countries may contribute to driving up international food prices and to amplifying social and political destabilisation, especially in food-import dependent countries (Werrell & Femia, 2013). The “Arab unhappiness” that spurred the popular uprisings has not faded over the years, giving rise to what has been referred to as the “Arab Spring 2.0”. This new round of turmoil, in which protesters demand a better quality of life, has been exacerbated by 2020s COVID-19 pandemic, clearly demonstrating, once again, the close interconnection between human well-being and planetary health.[1] In the same time frame, in the Northern Mediterranean Countries (NMCs), the migrant-refugee crisis, characterised by new migration waves triggered by traditional as well as unconventional push factors linked to the effects of climate and environmental changes, is becoming one of the most important and divisive issues in recent European politics, adding a new layer of instability to the already shaky European Union (EU) (Pawel & Roland, 2018).
Topic:: Climate Change, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Europe and Mediterranean

156. From a Fragmented Cooperation to an Integrated Approach – The Emergence of the Maghreb and Sahel Region and its Consequences for the European Union

Author:: Erzsébet N. Rózsa and Viktor Marsai
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The history of the European Union (EU)’s foreign and security policy has been characterised by a continuous develop- ment and a process of adaptation to the realities on the ground and the experi- ences gained. This was manifest in the gradual change from bilateral relations to regional/multilateral structures, from trade through three-basket/three-pillar structured relations to the integrated ap- proach as introduced by the 2016 EU Global Strategy, and the institutionalisa- tion thereof. “Internal and external secu- rity are ever more intertwined: our secu- rity at home entails a parallel interest in peace in our neighbouring and surround- ing regions. It implies a broader interest in preventing conflict, promoting human security, addressing the root causes of instability and working towards a safer world” (EEAS, 2016). The present pa- per argues that, in order to be able to halt the increasingly complex threats fac- ing the EU and maintain its global actor status, the EU should introduce further – sectorial and regional – flexibility, in- cluding, among others, definitions of the widening geographical scope underlying its strategic vision. Therefore, this paper first asks how the EU and its member states should recon- sider their regional approach. How can the EU implement the existing frame- works and/or develop a more effective and adaptive strategy towards its south- ern neighbourhood fitting the new reali- ties on the ground better?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Sahel

157. The EU as a Soft Power Superpower: Why a Green Marshall Plan for the Sahel Is Imperative

Author:: Friso Stevens and Dortih Kool
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: This research paper argues that the European Union should roll out a European Green Marshall Plan for ecosystem restoration and local governance in the Sahel region, located between the Sahara to the north and the Sudanian savanna to the south. Ecological degradation and related climate change put mounting pressure on the region. In combination with cyclical resource-related conflicts and the presence of terrorist and insurgent groups, this has created an increasingly volatile situation. European security and stability are indirectly at stake. The EU’s ‘Old War’ footing and support for illegitimate, corrupt, and autocratic governments to ‘mow the lawn’ of terrorists and insurgents fails to address and often undermines fundamental human security needs in the region. The authors propose a remodelling of EU foreign and security policy to shift focus from current securitization efforts towards facilitating a green, bottom-up transition that empowers local communities’ ecological stewardship by using their existing knowledge, skills, and dynamics, and Farmer-Managed Natural Regeneration (FMNR). Failure to make these changes toward a human security-centred approach means the EU’s current security and climate-related policies risk further undermining rather than contributing to regional security.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe

158. The Russian Soldiers’ Question Revisited

Author:: Joris Van Bladel
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The Russian authorities apply an “algorithm of lies”, the Russian armed forces have become a sealed organization, and tactical information about Russia’s war in Ukraine is fragmented and unreliable. Hence, definite conclusions concerning the Russian soldier cannot be drawn.
Topic:: Security, War, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

159. Mobilizing Against Russia? Some Reflections on the Security Deadlock Called Ukraine

Author:: Joris Van Bladel
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: No event exists beyond the media. This is also the case with the current Russian-Ukraine war. Daily, we are flooded with analyses and opinions about Putin’s military threat in the East. These narratives – mostly polemical and shrill – are both the result of and the catalyst for the crisis. As such, the debate itself – consciously or unconsciously – becomes part of the Western-Russian standoff driven by the strategy of hybrid and decision-centric warfare. This essay deliberately distances itself from the issues of the day and the hyper-polarized debate that currently takes place. Instead, a more detached exercise is made in which the polyphonic nature of the past and the intricacy of history is deliberately sought out. It shows the complexity of the process we have gone through, leading to the current deadlock. As such, we have to face the changes and continuities with which we have been confronted, or as Jeffrey Frank recently wrote in The New Yorker, “If a lot has changed since the end of the Cold War, there’s much that hasn’t.”
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

160. Western financial warfare and Russia’s de-dollarization strategy: How sanctions on Russia might reshape the global financial system

Author:: Maria Shagina
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Since 2014, Russia’s de-dollarization plan has been guided by security and geopolitical considerations. By dumping the US dollar from its foreign currency reserves, Russia diverted from the traditional approach where liquidity and the credibility of the issuer determine the choice of currency. In 2022, Russia has doubled down on its efforts to de-dollarize the economy. What started as de-dollarization in 2014, transformed into full-blown rouble-ization in 2022. Following the dynamic of an emerging multipolar world order, the global financial system is also gravitating towards fragmentation and currency multipolarity. The overuse of sanctions could strengthen revisionist countries’ desire to increasingly conduct their trade in non-dollar currencies in an attempt to avoid US oversight. If current trends continue, the de-dollarization effort could gain ground and undermine the primacy of the US dollar.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Sanctions, Finance, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Global Focus

161. A Roundtable on Heather Dichter, Bidding for the 1968 Olympic Games: International Sport’s Cold War Battle with NATO

Author:: Jenifer Parks, Anne M. Blaschke, Kevin B. Witherspoon, John Soares, and Richard Kimball
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
Abstract:: When Heather Dichter embarked on writing Bidding for the 1968 Olympic Games, she could not have anticipated how prescient her study would be upon publication. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has found a renewed unity and sense of purpose, and sport has again become a key arena for diplomatic policy. In the 1960s, the focus was on Germany which lay at the heart of a divided Europe, and NATO, the Soviet bloc, and the international sporting community struggled to solve the “German question” of how to handle the existence of two separate German states. Dichter’s book takes the reader through the many intricacies of that question, demonstrating not only how the politics of the Cold War influenced sport, but how international sports in turn influenced Cold War international relations. The “German problem” came to a head when the German Democratic Republic (GDR or East Germany) adopted a new flag and anthem and constructed the Berlin Wall. The erection of the wall, effectively cut off East German athletes from the West, and in response, NATO enacted what amounted to a ban on East German athletes traveling to international competitions in NATO countries. International sports organizations responded by downgrading competitions where East German athletes were excluded or moving competitions from NATO countries to neutral or Warsaw Pact countries, depriving host nations of the soft- power benefits of hosting major sports competitions. Meanwhile, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) deliberated whether to recognize a separate East German Olympic Committee or continue to insist on a unified German team. Once the IOC demanded a guarantee that any city hosting the Olympic Games would allow the free travel of East German athletes to the Games, NATO countries with cities bidding for 1968 Winter and Summer Games, namely the USA, Canada, France, and Norway, pressured the alliance to alter its policies on East German travel. East German officials’ attempts to use sport to legitimize their regime ultimately succeeded, and international sports precipitated the official recognition of a separate German Democratic Republic, which would go on to compete in the 1972 Summer Games in Munich under their own flag and anthem as a fully-fledged member of the Olympic Movement. How this unfolded makes for a fascinating read and a compelling discussion.
Topic:: NATO, Cold War, Diplomacy, and Sports
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

162. The Last Word: Zelensky Wags the Dog, But Slowly

Author:: Zachary Jonathan Jacobson
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
Abstract:: Too often agency (and blame) for the war in Ukraine has been presumed to lie predominantly with the greater powers. Liberals like Anne Applebaum point to President Vladimir Putin’s autocratic and expansionist mission to restore a greater Russia as the precipitating reagent for the crisis, while realists like John Mearsheimer hold the Americans and Europeans responsible for encouraging Ukraine to challenge Russia by seeking membership in NATO.2 In both cases (and both have a case), what has been underplayed is the agency of Ukraine. Taken for granted have been President Volodymyr Zelensky’s artful strategic manipulations to pull a wide community of actors into the regional conflict. His calls for military assistance have resembled what the political scientist Joseph Nye Jr. termed the “soft powers” of persuasion.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Governance, Leadership, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

163. The Digitalization of EU Public Diplomacy: the pandemic crisis and beyond

Author:: Christos A. Frangonikolopoulos and Eleftheria Spiliotakopoulou
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: This paper explores the digitalization of diplomacy and attempts to shed light on the adaptation level of the European Union by presenting the European External Action Service’s activity on social media and selected Public Diplomacy initiatives during the covid-19 pandemic. The main research questions posed in the study are: a) in what ways has the European Union used digital tools to respond to the coronavirus crisis; and b) what are the (recurring) challenges facing the European Union in its efforts to improve its image in a changing world and enhance its role as a leading global actor? The paper concludes that while the European Union is highly competent in terms of digitalization, it does face challenges, which are partly inherent in the sui generis nature of the European Union as an International Organization. These include the need for deeper integration, better coordination between member states, and further dialogue with the Union’s citizens, and must be met if the EU is to enhance trust and build solidarity, as well as a clearer and more solid European identity.
Topic:: Diplomacy, European Union, Regional Integration, COVID-19, Digitalization, and Adaptation
Political Geography:: Europe

164. The return of inflation: Can we protect real incomes?

Author:: Manos Matsaganis and Sotiria Theodoropoulou
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: High inflation, virtually unknown in advanced economies since the 1980s, has made a comeback. In this policy paper, we first explain where inflation comes from, and describe how the policy context for dealing with it was shaped after Keynesian demand management proved unable to defeat stagflation. We then critically examine the various policy options. Generally speaking, policy makers may attempt to (i) contain inflation by raising interest rates or, more directly, by controlling prices, (ii) alleviate the impact of inflation on household budgets through price subsidies or income transfers, and (iii) protect workers’ real incomes via wage indexation and social pacts. We conclude by assessing the merits, costs, and distributional implications of each option in turn.
Topic:: Economy, Inflation, and Income
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

165. Fuel of the Future: A Blueprint for a Mediterranean Market for Emission-Free Hydrogen

Author:: Jorgo Chatzimarkakis
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The Mediterranean Green Hydrogen Partnership (MGHP) should be developed from the outset into a supranational governing structure for the intercontinental hydrogen market around the Mediterranean Basin. The supranational model will ensure optimal ownership for all members while delivering compelling and binding decisions on the production, certification, transportation and distribution of clean hydrogen. It will also serve as a stepping stone to the application of supranational decision-making to future global hydrogen governance on the basis of rules and regulations enacted by the world’s leading hydrogen producing region. Maximising the clean hydrogen potential of all the states encompassed by the MGHP will make the organisation the global leader in a transparent and democratic market for a key future global energy source.
Topic:: Partnerships, Carbon Emissions, Hydrogen, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe and Mediterranean

166. Cooperation against the odds: Getting small firms to work together in unfavourable circumstances

Author:: Kira Gartzou-Katsouyanni
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: How can we get small firms to work together in order to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes, despite adverse circumstances? This policy paper provides an answer to this question that could be useful both to policymakers and to local stakeholders seeking to undertake innovative, cooperative economic activities in their area. Based on evidence from eight case studies within the Greek agri-food and tourism sectors, I argue that a small group of local actors, whom I call ‘institutional entrepreneurs’, usually play a key role in catalysing the emergence of cooperation at the local level. Their strategies and experiences carry valuable insights. I also outline the characteristics that macro-level institutional frameworks need to have if they are to facilitate local cooperation. These characteristics can inform the design of institutions at both the domestic and the EU level. The paper’s findings could be relevant to people interested in local development, but also to those concerned with boosting the productivity and export orientation of the Greek economy as a whole. After all, cooperation can improve the performance of small firms, and it is thus an important ingredient for inclusive growth in countries with a lot of small firms, such as Greece.
Topic:: Development, Economy, Business, and Production
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

167. The European Union’s uneasy journey through the energy crisis

Author:: Alekos Kritikos
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The European Union revealed rapid reflexes when it came to imposing sanctions on Russia and supporting Ukraine, but has been extremely slow when it comes to taking measures to relieve its own citizens and businesses. At three fruitless summits in the first two months of the crisis, numerous member states’ repeated requests for a joint fiscal response mirroring that adopted vis-à-vis the pandemic were not even informally tabled. In May, the Commission presented the REPowerEU programme, which aims to transition to clean energy and end the EU’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels. The two European Councils in May and June agreed on new sanctions against Russia, further assistance for Ukraine, and joint EU supplies of defence equipment. However, no decision was made to impose a cap on the price of natural gas and the issue of a joint fiscal response to the crisis was not even discussed. Despite repeated requests, the Commission continued to not submit proposals to this effect. But pressure was mounting for decisions to be made. Fifteen countries signed a joint letter in September 2022 calling for a cap on gas prices. In a joint article, Commissioners Thierry Breton and Paolo Gentiloni have also called for a joint fiscal response. The two Councils of Energy ministers in September 2022 resolved on a series of measures, but these are national responses rather than a joint European initiative. The price cap was absent once again from the decisions made. The informal Prague summit did not reach any conclusions either, though it did table all the outstanding issues in question. Europe’s successes in dealing with the pandemic came with “collateral damages”, institutional and otherwise, and the bloc has continued to sustain further collateral damages during the current energy crisis.
Topic:: European Union, Crisis Management, Fossil Fuels, Energy Crisis, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe

168. Using RRF resources to kick-start a job-rich recovery in Greece

Author:: Manos Matsaganis and Georgios Manalis
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) is a golden opportunity for those member states that were most badly hit first by the debt crisis then by the pandemic. Greece, one of the largest beneficiaries in per capita terms, is due to receive very significant resources that can help arrest the decline of the 2010s. Can these resources be spent wisely and efficiently enough to kickstart the process of inclusive and sustainable growth? This paper briefly reviews the Greek National Recovery and Resilience Plan (Greece 2.0), assessing its potential contribution to upgrading the economy’s growth model, enhancing skills, and boosting employment. In 2007-19, total investment in Greece shrank by a stunning 70% in real terms. Over the same period, public investment fell by 62%, business investment by 44%, and household investment (on housing, mostly) by 89%. Under-investment constrains growth and undermines the future prospects of the Greek economy. The Recovery and Resilience Facility offers Greece a unique opportunity to bridge the investment gap, giving a boost to the sustainable recovery of the Greek economy. Technically, Greece 2.0, the country’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan is competently drafted, as its favourable reception by the European Commission indicates. Still, critical issues abound. In this sense, Greece 2.0 embodies the contradictions of the current juncture. On the one hand, there is a consensus that the Greek economy should rebalance, by pursuing a growth strategy that relies much more on exports than in the recent past, and much less on domestic consumer demand fuelled by debt. On the other hand, the legacy of the past weighs heavily on social and political actors, limiting their room for manoeuvre. The list is daunting. It remains to be seen how the above will play out over the next few years.
Topic:: Debt, Economy, Crisis Management, Resilience, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

169. Georgian-Greek Relations: Building a Strategic Dimension

Author:: Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Mariam Gugulashvili
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The cordial bilateral relations between Greece and Georgia are mostly centered on the culture and education domains, with less progress achieved in the areas of the economy, foreign policy, and security. Greece can emerge as Georgia’s key supporter in its EU membership aspirations, with Greek experts and diplomatic circles contributing their experience to the country’s EU integration process. This support can be realized at both high and low levels, through EU Twinning projects and results-oriented memoranda between state institutions to import best practices, so Georgia can successfully carry out the required democratization reforms and implement the EU Association Agreement effectively. As the international system becomes more multipolar and the strategic significance of the Black Sea and Caucasus regions increases, Greece and Georgia should work to deepen their ties and build interest-oriented synergies in order to forge a strategic alliance. The promotion of Western and European interests can be significantly aided by a democratic Georgia on the road to European integration and a resurgent Greece with a stronger regional presence in the Black Sea and Caucasus.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:: Europe, Greece, and Georgia

170. EU-Georgia Relations at a Critical Juncture: A Case for European Strategic Autonomy

Author:: Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Mariam Gugulashvili
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Despite the substantial progress that Georgia has made in implementing the EU Association Agreement and related reforms, it has been experiencing democratic backsliding since 2018. The divergence of Georgia’s ruling party from a pro-European trajectory, as well as the political polarization that has been dominant in recent years, have contributed to the deterioration of ties between Georgia and the EU. Unlike Ukraine and Moldova, Georgia, which was once seen as a “reform pioneer,” was not given candidate status in June 2022. Georgian public opinion has always supported membership of Euro-Atlantic institutions, with more than 80% of Georgians today being Euro-enthusiasts and overwhelmingly in favour of joining the EU. The EU is Georgia’s largest donor and trading partner. Georgia’s key strategic option boils down to Russia vs. the West. Georgia should foster closer relations with certain EU member states that could provide key support for its EU membership aspirations.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, European Union, Trade, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:: Europe and Georgia

171. Threats, Instability and Disruption in Europe’s South

Author:: Marc Pierini
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Russia’s intervention in Syria in September 2016 turned out to have much broader objectives. The development of air and naval bases provided Moscow with platforms for operations in the Mediterranean and in Sub-Saharan Africa. The delivery of S-400 missile systems to Turkey added another major strategic gain. The European Union is faced by broad challenges on its South, with a sharp decline in rule of law, political instability, and a surge in authoritarianism. Wider phenomena such as climate change, demographic trends, and criminal activities of human trafficking networks add to the challenges. ISIL is still a threat too. Turkey’s choice of disruptive policies has perplexed EU and NATO leaders in the recent past. Tensions with the EU have risen due to challenges to maritime boundaries and sovereignty of Cyprus and Greece. Although largely a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Union’s major foreign policy initiatives in 2022 have marked a watershed moment and constitute a useful precedent for the Union’s policies with third countries. In the near future, the EU will have to invent a new format, distinct from accession, for its relationship with the countries of ‘Wider Europe’ and to use its now diversified ‘foreign policy toolbox’ in a coherent and effective fashion.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Sovereignty, European Union, and Instability
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Southern Europe

172. Explaining immigration restrictions using a sequential path dependency model

Author:: Emmanuel Comte
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: This paper, by Emmanuel Comte, Senior Research Fellow, Ariane Condellis European Programme, analyses immigration restrictions by discussing major recent debates of historical political economy and proposing a new explanatory model. The conclusions in recent research on the subject of immigration restrictions converge in highlighting the natives’ fear of economic costs as a potent factor in immigration restrictions, despite evidence proving that actual costs are small and circumscribed, while the aggregate impact of immigration is generally positive. This paper develops existing scholarship to explain the magnitude of current immigration restrictions in Europe and North America by proposing a sequential path dependency model based on both historical insights and the insights of institutionalist theories of path dependence. In this model, the fears of adverse economic effects held by specific segments of the national workforce interact with a power structure dominated by the state and with the agency of union leaders and policymakers initiating a series of policy cycles that lead to complete restrictions on low-skilled immigration.
Topic:: Political Economy, Immigration, and Border Control
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

173. Local community views on Marine Protected Areas on Greek islands

Author:: Lydia Avrami, Nicolas Demertzis, Antonis Armenakis, and Dmitra Syrou
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are usually designated in areas with intense human activity. An MPA is therefore a complex socioeconomic system whose success and/or failure, and ability to deliver environmental, social and economic benefits, depend on local communities and their sensitivities. This paper examines how recently designated MPAs on three islands in the Cyclades group (Kythnos, Milos and Santorini), with differently structured local economies and levels of touristic development, are perceived by their local communities. Data are drawn from a phone survey of local residents, and the results show that the awareness, attitudes and perceptions of the local groups differ significantly depending on the area and their stake in the MPA. How much local communities know about the MPA regulatory framework and its location, past experiences and socioeconomic factors are deemed good predictors for the local communities’ behaviors towards the MPAs. The positive interplay between the operation of an MPA and the development of scuba diving is also acknowledged, although the perceived trade-off between marine protection and fishers’ revenue remains the main challenge facing MPA implementation. The paper’s findings highlight the urgent need to deal with the information and knowledge deficit, and to bridge the gap between the perceptions and expectations of local communities and the MPAs’ actual output. Applying a participatory approach to MPA decision-making and operation would build capacity for effective implementation. Thus, the delimitation of the protection zones within the MPAs, and the provision of specific constraints, should be based on both ecological and socioeconomic criteria.
Topic:: Environment, Natural Resources, Public Opinion, Regulation, and Ecology
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

174. The Second Phase of the EU Southern Gas Corridor: Which role for Azerbaijan?

Author:: Marika Karagianni
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The operation of the Southern Gas Corridor marks the first attempt of the EU to diversify its pipeline gas supplies and routes beyond Russia. The 2nd Phase of the Corridor, which involves the operation of several gas interconnectors in South Eastern Europe, is being promoted, while the EU is looking for additional supply sources, namely LNG. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, coupled with the intense energy crisis in Europe, has reinforced these trends. Field development in Azerbaijan and future prospects for LNG exports, primarily from the US, are discussed in this article as realistic options for alternative supply sources for Europe.
Topic:: Development, European Union, Gas, Exports, and Pipeline
Political Geography:: Europe, Central Asia, and Azerbaijan

175. Parti Socialiste: the end of the cycle – The collapse of the French Socialists and the future prospects of the Left in France

Author:: Nikolas I. Tzimos
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The French Socialist Party (Parti Socialiste – PS), once the main government party of the Left, has been in rapid decline since 2014; since 2017, it has been struggling for its life. Its electorate shrank due to President François Hollande’s poor management and growing political unreliability during his term in office. Signs of internal crisis were evident from the early 21st century. The Socialist Party has been losing traditional social bastions and organizational resources since the 2014 municipal elections. The 2022 presidential elections already appear lost for the Socialist Party. Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris and the Socialist candidate for the presidency, is from the PS’s vast pool of local authority cadres. She was reelected as mayor in harsh times, back in 2020. A predominantly cosmopolitan candidate, Hidalgo has failed to rally the PS’s forces. She is shedding votes towards the Center and the radical Left. The PS is currently experiencing the inversion of the phenomenon of 21 April 2002. To avoid two undesirable candidates in the second round, potential PS voters are “forced” to vote tactically (vote utile) for candidates that are better equipped to get beyond the first round. Can the PS survive if it puts in a good performance in the upcoming parliamentary elections? The French two-round electoral system requires cooperation to secure seats. A new Épinay is necessary, but is it possible?
Topic:: Domestic Politics, History, Political Parties, and Socialism
Political Geography:: Europe and France

176. Europe after Putin’s War: EU Foreign and Defence Policy in the new European security architecture

Author:: George Pagoulatos and Spyros Blavoukos
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a game changer for Europe and the global system and a call for the EU to emerge as a coherent security actor. Any EU discussion about an autonomous EU military capacity becomes irrelevant in the face of a systemic global security challenge, such as Russia, which cannot be dealt with through the existing or envisaged EU military instruments. Faced with a security challenge on a global scale, NATO remains the only game in town. The EU ambition of developing its strategic autonomy becomes practically meaningful only within the transatlantic alliance. EU member-states should take advantage of the existing clauses that enable significant steps to be taken towards foreign and security integration. The existing Treaty framework provides legal space for significant advances in the field of foreign and security integration, even though all relevant Treaty Articles contain strong ‘brakes’ which enable member-states to retain control of the process. Enhanced cooperation in EU foreign and security policy remains an important way forward, even though there are significant safety clauses. The ‘mutual defence’ or ‘mutual assistance’ clause (Article 42(7) of TEU) and the ‘solidarity clause’ (Article 222 of TFEU) are the closest things the EU has to security guarantees. Adding teeth to 42(7) should be an EU priority. Supporting EU ‘coalitions of the willing’ (Article 44 of TEU) also provides the opportunity for swifter military action under the EU aegis. The modality of cooperation between such coalitions and the EU rapid deployment capacity, which is also envisaged in the Strategic Compass and the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), has still to be worked out. Transition to qualified majority voting (QMV) in EU foreign policy decision-making presents both advantages and disadvantages, both from the standpoint of the EU and of the dissenting member states. The EU cannot become a credible global power if it cannot reach collective decisions on EU foreign and security policy. Moving towards QMV would address structural weaknesses and serve the objective of European sovereignty. However, smaller member-states need a strong and explicit reassurance that they can always use the existing emergency brakes when they consider an issue which is to be decided on by QMV to be a matter of national security. Transition to QMV should be the result of the gradual forging of a common foreign policy understanding on the major security challenges facing the EU. Human rights issues and sanctions are a good place to start when building momentum towards QMV. In the meanwhile, the current reform effort should be focused on investing in the institutional framework of EU foreign and security policy and making good use of existing instruments.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, European Union, Vladimir Putin, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe

177. Achieving qualitative superiority: Greek conscription and the Turkish threat

Author:: Antonis Kamaras and Nikos Stournaras
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: This policy paper argues that, by emulating its peer countries, wealthy, small to medium sized democracies facing national security threats, in Northern Europe and the Middle East (namely Finland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Israel), Greece can modernize its conscript component and thus attain qualitative superiority over the Turkish Army. Turkey’s conscript model is riven by deep-seated class, geographical and ethnic cleavages, giving to Greek political and military leaders the opportunity to gain a qualitative military edge through judicious modernization of the Greek conscript model. Such a modernization is eminently feasible today as Greece’s economic crisis has created the political space to overcome resistance to the reform of conscription. By contrast, Greece’s main national security threat, Turkey, belongs to that group of authoritarian or illiberal countries which have suboptimal conscription models, featuring evasion of conscript service by the well-educated, inefficient training and harsh, counterproductive treatment of those conscripts who do serve. Greece, also due to its post WWII illiberalism or authoritarianism, and not unlike Taiwan which has a similar legacy, has not infused its conscript component with demanding training and operational standards, roles and missions. The time is ripe, due to the resurgence of the Turkish threat and Greece’s economic crisis, which has removed many of the country’s outdated shibboleths, to modernise Greek conscription, as its peer countries have done, and thus acquire an Army qualitatively superior to that of Turkey. By doing so, Greek policy-makers will decisively strengthen Greece’s deterrence and produce positive externalities for the consripts themselves . Indeed, the more effective conscription becomes in operational terms for the Greek Armed Forces, the greater the benefits to be reaped in civilian life.
Topic:: Security, National Security, Armed Forces, Deterrence, and Conscription
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Greece

178. Household Wealth Inequalities in the wake of the Greek Debt Crisis

Author:: Apostolos Fasianos
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Despite the renowned interest in wealth disparities, the distribution of wealth in Greece is largely understudied. This study maps the levels, dynamics, and composition of household wealth using data from the three waves of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey for Greece for the period after the debt crisis of 2009-10 till 2017. The evidence suggests that the richest 1% of the population holds roughly as much wealth as the poorest 50%, while the richest 10% holds about four times the wealth of the poorest 50%. Most inequality indicators employed indicate increasing trends in wealth disparities between 2009 and 2017. During this period, average and median wealth holdings decreased by about one third, and the share of financially fragile households increased by about 20%. Estimates from factor inequality decompositions suggest that, although relatively evenly distributed, housing asset holdings explain much of the increase in overall wealth inequality in Greece, followed by self-employment business equity; financial assets play a negligible role. Financial wealth inequality is much more pronounced than housing wealth inequality in Greece. The findings of the paper carry important implications for the design of appropriate policies aiming at reducing wealth inequalities and strengthening financial resilience.
Topic:: Debt, Income Inequality, Economic Crisis, and Wealth
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

179. EU-Africa relations ahead of the EU-AU Summit: Taking stock, looking forward

Author:: Pavlos Petidis
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The European Union’s (EU) development policy is a broad field of activity that has undergone multiple significant modifications in both its definitions and its goals. The external relations of the European Union have long included development policy, resulting in an asymmetrical relationship with Africa. Since the turn of the century, the scope of the EU-Africa relationship has expanded to cover new challenges including climate change, terrorism, trade liberalization, and migration. EU development policies reveal a long-term shift in EU development priorities away from fundamental development goals and toward a wider array of ambitions, actors, and methodologies. Identifying and prioritizing the International Organizations on which it and its member states should best focus their diplomatic and political capital is a challenge. Given the political clout and relevance of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) for the continent’s economic development, the EU can concentrate its efforts on encouraging its implementation by deepening its Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs). Working together to strengthen multilateralism and support the implementation of the European Green Deal and the AfCFTA form the axis of a new articulated African agency.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Diplomacy, Migration, Terrorism, European Union, Partnerships, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa and Europe

180. Who are the populists and how to respond to them: Evidence from mainstream European Parliament parties

Author:: Dimitri A. Sotiropoulos
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The main research questions of this paper are how mainstream European Parliament parties conceptualize populism, and how they respond to the rise of populism. The paper, which has come out of the Horizon 2020 project “Demos”, is based on semi-structured interviews with top officials of non-populist parties in the European Parliament (“Europarties”), such as the ALDE, EPP, the Party of European Socialists and the European Greens. The research technique of the paper is thematic analysis, performed on the responses obtained from the aforementioned interviews. Europarty officials identified populist parties by associating them with core themes such as anti-migration, Euroscepticism, and the tendency to make undeliverable policy promises. As for the effectiveness of anti-populist strategies, the interviewees converged on the idea that the problems posed by populists cannot be ignored and that clear and concrete policy solutions are what mainstream parties need, if they are to defend themselves against the evasive political discourse of populist parties. Non-populist parties in the European Parliament may use three strategies to prevent the rise of populists, namely clashing with, marginalizing, or co-opting the populists. Non-populist parties may prefer to incorporate selected questions raised by the populists into their political agendas, and provide non-populist replies to them. Mainstream parties seem aware that while populists may not win arguments over concrete policy measures, they might win voters’ hearts.
Topic:: Politics, European Union, Populism, Domestic Politics, and European Parliament
Political Geography:: Europe

181. Turkey’s “anti-colonial” pivot to Mali: French-Turkish competition and the role of the European Union in the Sahel

Author:: Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Dawid A. Fusiek
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Turkey’s rising foreign policy ambitions have been best reflected in its pivot to Africa. One of the tropes used by the Erdoğan administration to advance its cause are references to the colonial heritage of the European Union (EU) and its member states. The AKP and its officials have employed this discourse to challenge the French influence in Mali since the 2020 coup d’état. As this paper shows, Turkey uses anti-colonial discourse to exploit postcolonial sentiments with a view to challenging the political and economic power of Western actors, to portraying Turkey as a legitimate and “anti-colonial” ally and partner and, in the long run, to establishing a robust Turkish presence in Mali, the Sahel and beyond. In order to counter Turkish influence, the EU needs to promote fair cooperation with Mali and West Africa, to assist with political and economic development in the region, and to mobilise Member States which are unencumbered with a colonial past.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Anti-Colonialism, and Competition
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, France, Mali, and Sahel

182. Transparency policy in Greece: From citizen empowerment to anticorruption and open data

Author:: Calliope Spanou and Manto Lampropoulou
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: This paper aims to provide an overview of the transparency policy in Greece with a focus on public administration. To this end, we explore and critically analyse the origins and the state of play of transparency policy in line with the key components of the current policy agenda, namely: open government, access to documents and digital information, internal audit, and lobbying activities. The goal is to identify (i) the way by which transparency policy has been embedded in the domestic agenda of state reform and evolved over time and (ii) the processes and mechanisms through which transparency policy is currently formulated, implemented and evaluated. The findings of the analysis show that the focus of the transparency policy has shifted over time and has included a wide range of both symbolic and pragmatic initiatives, such as citizen empowerment and participation (1980s), control of public administration (1990s-2000s), open/ digital governance and open data (2000s), anti-corruption (2010s) and public sector digitalization (2020s). In this respect, the term “transparency” seems to have embraced a wide variety of concerns, objectives, procedures, and institutions. Like other policy domains, the fragmentation of the legislative framework and competent institutions has been a constant feature of the domestic transparency policies, which has hampered policy coherence and co-ordination over time. Accordingly, the formulation, implementation and monitoring of the transparency policy implicates multiple actors across central government together with the growing influence of external experts during the past years. Τhe role of civil society and citizen participation in transparency policy remain weak. Recently, an effort has been put forth to centralize control mechanisms and interconnect existing platforms in order to alleviate the observed weaknesses. Yet, beyond the institutional and technical improvements, the role of transparency for democracy and accountability remains in question and needs to be brought back into the debate.
Topic:: Corruption, Citizenship, and Transparency
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

183. Rethinking EU economic governance: The foundation for an inclusive, green and digital transition

Author:: Francesco De Angelis, Laura Rayner, and Frederico Mollet
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The European Union is undertaking a comprehensive review of its economic governance framework, to address longstanding criticisms, respond to the impact of COVID-19, and prepare for the challenges posed by the twin green and digital transitions. This Discussion Paper represents the final instalment of an EPC Task Force series that examined the current approach and proposes 10 concrete policy recommendations to make EU economic governance stronger, greener and fairer: Establish a central investment capacity for green and digital investments (including associated social investments) or, alternatively, a golden rule modelled on the governance of the Recovery and Resilience Facility. Introduce a single net expenditure rule with a country-specific debt target based on nationally designed expenditure and debt plans to enhance political ownership. Shift to a multiannual supervision and assessment framework and introduce fixed medium-term budgetary plans, with a control account tracking deviations. Reform the sanctions regime to increase proportionality, perceived fairness and political enforceability. Differentiate country-specific supervision based on a clear risk threshold. Introduce ‘National Reform and Investment Plans’ modelled on the National Recovery and Resilience Plans, using a commitments-based approach to operationalise social, fiscal, macroeconomic and structural country-specific recommendations. The plans’ components with strong links to fiscal sustainability should govern the use of Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) flexibilities. Reform the Stability and Convergence Programmes (SCPs) to focus more on the investment composition of national fiscal plans and their link to broader policy objectives. Introduce an opinion on the individual and joint impact of the SCPs on imbalances into the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure to strengthen its link with the SGP. Introduce new processes into the European Semester to assess non-macroeconomic structural risks, such as climate and environmental risks. Build on the success of the temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE) programme to create insurance-based mechanisms to support national fiscal policy during downturns.
Topic:: Economics, Governance, European Union, and Digital Transition
Political Geography:: Europe

184. The EU–Ukraine Association Agreement after Ukraine’s EU membership application: Still fit for purpose

Author:: Guillaume Van der Loo and Peter Van Elsuwege
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: In an extraordinary session of the European Parliament on 1 March 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky requested from a bunker in Kyiv, while Russian missiles bombarded Ukraine, the EU to give the war-ravaged country a clear path towards EU membership. The day before, Ukraine had submitted its official application to the EU, followed shortly by Georgia and Moldova. The European Parliament already supported Ukraine’s membership application and called on the EU institutions to work towards granting Ukraine EU candidate status, in line with Article 49 TEU. Offering such a status would be a historic token of support for Ukraine in its self-defence against Russian military aggression. The Versailles declaration, adopted by the heads of state or government of the EU member states on 10 and 11 March, acknowledges that Ukraine belongs to the ‘European family’ without explicitly mentioning the country’s candidate status. Nevertheless, the Council already invited the European Commission to submit its opinion in accordance with Article 49 TEU. Despite this support for – and recognition of – Ukraine’s application, the road to EU membership remains a long one. Several member states have concerns about Ukraine’s readiness and eligibility for the pre-accession process, the EU’s absorption capacity, and the geopolitical consequences of the Union’s further eastward enlargement. Moreover, the economic consequences of the war will also complicate Ukraine’s concrete progress in its accession process. With Russian tanks and missiles still on Ukrainian soil, discussing actual membership is arguably premature. This may create unrealistic expectations and lead to frustrations in the applicant countries. It will therefore be important to remain clear and transparent about the EU accession procedure and offer concrete and credible incentives for reform and gradual integration in the Union throughout the long and winding pre-accession procedure. Paired with an unprecedented assistance package and new forms of sectoral integration in key EU policies (e.g. the twin green and digital transitions), the current EU–Ukraine Association Agreement remains the most appropriate instrument to develop this bilateral relationship further. The dynamic nature of the agreement, combined with its open-ended accession perspective, implies that both the EU and Ukraine can reorient it to new and more ambitious forms of political association and economic integration and accommodate it to a pre-accession context on the basis of a staged approach.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

185. War has returned to Europe: Three reasons why the EU did not see it coming

Author:: Corina Stratulat
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Before 24 February, Europe decidedly defined itself as 'post-war'. But since Putin's full-scale, cold-blooded invasion of Ukraine, war again defines the Union's reality. Damage control is the main priority now — but knee-jerk reactions and moral outrage do not amount to a strategy, argues Corina Stratulat. To create a future that stops perpetuating the past, the Union and its member states must also start to critically contemplate how they got into the current predicament and change course. Three lessons stand out: First, since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, overconfidence in its own allure and model has skewed the EU's perspective of itself and the rest of the world. While freedom, pluralism and liberal democracy remain attractive, liberal expectations that the Union would be able to convert even its immediate neighbourhood – let alone the world – to its image have proven illusory. Despite almost two decades of European integration, democratic performance has still not acquired a positive dynamic in the Balkans. And yet the membership card has now been confidently and imprudently put on the table for Ukraine and other eastern countries, posing as a solution to the current crisis. Without practising humility, the EU stands to persevere in its confirmation biases and continue to evade learning. Second, the EU's unrealistic aspirations to global hegemony have long been concealing a policy of double standards both at 'home' and abroad, piling up accusations of hypocrisy. While the EU was pretending to be a shining example of liberal democracy, several member states have taken full pages from Putin's autocratic playbook or put their own interests ahead of the Union's 'sacred' democratic values — faults easily exploited by illiberal actors, like Putin. Dressing up the EU's foreign policy ambitions as efforts to revive global democracy will remain a hypocrisy trap, including in Ukraine now. Third, a misplaced acceptance of the status quo has prevented the EU from getting to the bottom of the many crises it has been grappling with for decades. But the Union cannot wish away systemic risks or escape the fact that dealing with today's enormous challenges will require deep and brave reforms across the board. The stresses of cumulative crises, crowned now by the ongoing war, give the Union a chance to plan the future. The choices that the EU will make in the coming years will determine what the Union truly values and whether it will be able to preserve its own way of life. If the EU is keen to maintain the normative power of its liberal values in an increasingly illiberal environment, it should obsessively focus on making liberalism its sign of distinction from the outside world, not a model to transform others. The Union has to learn to live by example and will have to work hard to become exemplary.
Topic:: European Union, Norms, Russia-Ukraine War, and Illiberalism
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

186. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: Unity is good, but ambition is better

Author:: Sophie Pornschlegel and Ilke Toygür
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: In view of the volatile geopolitical environment, EU leaders no longer have the luxury of waiting for all 27 member states to find a consensus. In order to lead the way to a Union that is apt for future challenges, the EU should become more ambitious and embrace alternatives, such as differentiated integration, in the coming months and years. Rather than returning to the status quo ante, the EU should use this momentum to progress in five policy fields: economic governance, with a new recovery package and a reform of the fiscal rules; security and defence, with improved EU–NATO cooperation and a stronger ‘European pillar’; energy policy, by quickly steering member states away from dependence on Russian fossil fuels while simultaneously ensuring admissible energy prices for consumers and respecting the climate targets; enlargement and neighbourhood policy, by rethinking its aims and creating options for countries that are unlikely to become EU members in the foreseeable future; and the rule of law, to safeguard the Union’s values ‘at home’. Both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion revealed that the EU institutions and leaders are capable of managing crises swiftly and decisively. This reality certainly increases its legitimacy in the eyes of its citizens as well as its allies. The European Union could use this moment of change to increase its ambition for reforms and for moving European integration forward. This should encourage leaders to think about all the options for designing the Union’s future. This is not a time for black and white thinking – Treaty change or nothing –, but rather a time to explore all the shades of grey for securing necessary reforms. If like-minded countries could lead the way, others may also follow. The changing and evolving positions in the EU could help secure more inclusive alliances for moving forward. The political momentum to do so is finally here.
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Economy, Rule of Law, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

187. The von der Leyen European Commission at midterm: Same priorities, different reality

Author:: Corina Stratulat, Annika Hedberg, Stefan Sipka, Janis Emmanouilidis, and Johannas Greubel
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: At the halfway point of the von der Leyen Commission’s term, and amid a tumultuous context, the EPC has conducted a thorough and broad analysis of its successes and failures so far. How have the pandemic and the war affected President von der Leyen’s initial promises? What are the key imperatives ahead? How can von der Leyen make the most of the remainder of her mandate to help the EU advance in this new era (Zeitenwende)? EPC analysts from across all programmes compare and contrast the initial 6 policy priorities against their actual delivery and provide recommendations for the second half of the Commission’s term.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Migration, European Union, Democracy, Digital Policy, Green Deal, and European Commission
Political Geography:: Europe

188. Post-Brexit EU–UK cooperation on migration and asylum: How to live apart, together

Author:: Alberto-Horst Neidhardt
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The UK’s withdrawal from the EU has created a policy, legal and operational vacuum in migration and asylum matters which undermines the interests of both sides. There is no more binding framework which defines responsibility for asylum seekers and facilitates transfers between the EU and the UK. Brexit also made it harder to devise and implement effective anti-smuggling strategies with European partners. Despite these gaps, a post-Brexit cooperation agreement is not on the horizon, with structural reforms pursued by each side reflecting conflicting priorities and a growing political disconnect. Following the 2020 proposals of the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, EU member states are still negotiating a mandatory responsibility-sharing mechanism. Meanwhile, in April 2022, the UK overhauled its asylum and immigration law, undercutting safeguards for asylum seekers reaching the country irregularly. The same month, the UK government signed a deal with Rwanda to deport all asylum seekers arriving via the Channel – a move even the European Commission has criticised. Recent post-Brexit tensions over other policy areas, most prominently the Northern Ireland Protocol, have reduced mutual trust to a historic minimum. This makes an ambitious and comprehensive agreement over asylum and migration matters an unlikely prospect for the time being. Yet, as neighbours, the EU and the UK will continue to depend on each other to pursue their respective policy objectives in migration and asylum. So, despite living separately and facing numerous unresolved tensions, the EU and the UK can and should pursue a post-Brexit cooperation framework in these matters. Otherwise, they will both be worse off. As a first step, the two sides should focus on rebuilding trust. This can be achieved by pursuing less contentious goals within immediate reach, such as enhanced anti-smuggling efforts, while also diffusing political tensions across the board. Once an atmosphere of sincere cooperation is restored, as a second step, the EU and the UK should define a broader and more ambitious partnership. Safe and legal channels from the EU to the UK should be re-established. At the same time, equitable solutions for facilitating the return of third-country nationals from the UK to the EU, in full respect of procedural safeguards, should also be found. Although reciprocity would have to be at the heart of this new arrangement, the EU and the UK should go beyond a transactional approach, particularly by strengthening protection pathways and burden-sharing solutions, including with third countries, in line with their international commitments. The European Commission should take the lead in the negotiation of a post-Brexit EU–UK cooperation framework. This would allow the EU to speak with one voice and pursue clear and coherent objectives across the different policy areas concerned. The newly established EU–UK Parliamentary Partnership Assembly should also be involved in the negotiations, helping to democratise the process and achieve a more balanced relationship in the interests of both sides.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Migration, European Union, Brexit, and Asylum
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

189. Europe’s moment of truth: United by adversity?

Author:: Fabian Zuleeg and Janis Emmanouilidis
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Inaction is not an option for the Union. It must demonstrate both unity and ambition along a concrete reform path, specifically across 10 strategic areas. The EU27 must decide whether the integration project can once again become a success story – this time in reaction to the watershed moment we are experiencing. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a major transgression against, and tragedy for, a sovereign country and its people wanting to determine their own future. There is no justification for this war of aggression and the war crimes that Russian troops have already carried out – all driven by revisionist ideology and the neo-imperial ambitions of President Putin and his supporters.
Topic:: NATO, European Union, Regional Integration, Crisis Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe

190. Achieving the full potential of sustainable finance: The role of national, European and international initiatives

Author:: Eva De Francesco
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: When signing the 2016 Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty on climate change, world leaders agreed to pursue the ambitious goals of achieving climate neutrality and mitigating the effects of climate change. Almost every country around the globe recognised that business-as-usual is not an option if we are to save the planet and human existence. As a result of this realisation and commitment, different green measures are being taken globally, regionally, locally; at all levels of societies; and in the public and private sectors. Redirecting capital flows toward a green economy is an important part of measures to take, so it is no surprise that there is a growing interest in using environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) factors as guidance points for both public and private investors. However, there is still much to be done to ensure not just sufficient investment volumes but also that investments labelled as ‘sustainable’ do, in fact, contribute to climate action objectives. In order to realise ESG markets’ full potential in supporting the global transition towards a climate-neutral economy, further effort is especially needed in the following three areas: Policymakers at all levels must urgently address greenwashing and the lack of transparent and comparable ESG data. In the context of sustainability reporting, double materiality approaches are better suited to address the urgency of climate change. Policymakers at all levels must ensure the interoperability and alignment of the rapidly evolving sustainability reporting initiatives.
Topic:: Climate Change, Finance, Sustainability, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Europe

191. Managing the energy and food crises: Exceptional times call for exceptional measures

Author:: Annika Hedberg
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The Russian war on Ukraine is an unprecedented test for the EU and its leaders. On top of the security, humanitarian and refugee crises, they must manage its impact on our economy and energy and food systems. With prices soaring and supply chains disrupted, they must respond to the cost-of-living crisis. Exceptional times call for exceptional measures, including in how we produce and consume energy and food. This Discussion Paper identifies priorities for action to prevent the energy and food crises from spiralling out of control and to enhance European resilience, sustainability and prosperity.
Topic:: European Union, Crisis Management, Energy Crisis, Food Crisis, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe

192. The beginning of the European Political Community

Author:: Corina Stratulat
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The European Political Community (EPoC) idea was floated by President Macron back in May to encourage dialogue and cooperation among like-minded EU and non-EU countries on matters of common interest. It will be formally launched in the margins of the upcoming informal European Council summit in Prague, organised by the Czech EU Presidency. With the meeting just days away, the EU is under growing pressure to give some substance to Macron’s bold initiative. For the EPoC to set in motion a positive dynamic for the Union in the unfolding Zeitenwende, participating governments and leaders must take their preparations for the summit seriously. This Discussion Paper lays out short, but concrete checklists for all the essential players: Prague should organise bilateral consultations with the different invitees and collect ideas ahead of the summit. The agenda of this initial EPoC meeting should only include a limited number of substantive issues that reflect common concerns in the new geopolitical context transformed by Russia’s war in Ukraine. The organisers should also ensure that participants reserve time to discuss how the new format will run its affairs in the future. The details of the EPoC’s operational and governing structure will depend on the level of ambition that the initial participants will choose for the initiative. Establishing a community for dialogue and coordination among partners who might have diverging views and interests but also share security and economic concerns is in itself a valuable rationale for the initiative. And yet the EPoC should aspire to become more than ‘just’ a geopolitical forum for high-level dialogue. Current and potential new members in the future should aim to work in small or broad formations to align their positions in response to challenges that demand joint international action, like the energy crisis, the looming global recession and growing inequality, climate change, shifting demographics, and destabilising technological trends. EU leaders should be careful not to turn geography or democratic credentials into exclusion criteria for participants. A more legitimate and effective approach would be for the EU to rhetorically decouple its efforts to contain authoritarian Russia and rethink Europe’s role in the new global order from its desire to defend democracy and serve justice – or risk looking hypocritical in the process. Nor should EU leaders use the initiative as an excuse not to deal with internal EU reform or deliver on enlargement. Mustering the courage to embark on a European Convention that might lead to Treaty change would not only help the cause of EU hopefuls – especially if it deals with the Union’s absorption capacity, unanimity principle and lack of democratic acquis – it would also strengthen the credibility of the EU’s efforts to encourage political coordination beyond its borders. That being said, nothing stops the Balkan countries, together with Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova, from using their leverage in the EPoC format to negotiate in the margins of this and future EPoC meetings their progress in the accession process.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Politics, European Union, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: Europe

193. EU responses to Ukrainian arrivals – not (yet) a blueprint

Author:: Marie De Somer and Alberto-Horst Neidhardt
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: In her recent State of the Union speech, European Commission President von der Leyen stressed that the EU’s welcome responses to Ukrainians fleeing war should not be the exception but rather be used as a “blueprint” for the future. Applying lessons from this response to Ukrainian arrivals to inform decision-making around other groups of refugees would undoubtedly benefit EU decision-making processes in this area and, more importantly, strengthen the protection standards provided. But how much scope is there for doing so? And what is politically realistic? This paper argues that overly optimistic projections are, for the time being, misdirected. We review the discussions surrounding the activation of the Temporary Protection Directive (TPD) and highlight how, despite the generally positive response, previous political sticking points have re-emerged in the process. We also consider the bigger-picture, long-term implications of activating the TPD. In this context, we consider several potentially positive impacts, including increased trust and a sense of reinvigoration around migration files. Even there, however, initial discussions within the EU institutions would suggest that longstanding national positions, particularly around secondary movements, remain entrenched.
Topic:: European Union, Refugees, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

194. Keeping a cool head: How to improve the EU migration crisis response

Author:: Helena Hahn
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: One of the critical lessons learned from the 2015/16 migration crisis was that the EU’s crisis response suffered from lacking coordination. Instead of seeming prepared, it appeared to be ‘muddling through’, which resulted in ad hoc and reactive measures. Now, six years later, Europe has seen a rapid succession of migration and humanitarian crises in Afghanistan, Belarus, and Ukraine, evoking memories of the challenges the EU and its member states faced in responding to the events of 2015/16. This Discussion Paper explores whether any lessons have been learned in terms of crisis coordination since that time – and if so, which ones. Crucially, it also engages with questions around how much flexibility versus consolidation of crisis structures and processes will be needed to strengthen EU crisis responses in the future. There has been some cause for optimism in the past year. Between successful coordination efforts within the Solidarity Platform, established in response to arrivals from Ukraine, as well as increased international engagement and alliance-building, notably with the United States and Canada, there are several good practices to draw on. Even so, these sorts of flexible and targeted coordination efforts should be complemented with further consolidation. Given that each migration crisis differs from the next, there will never be one single coordinating mechanism or entity. Yet, the EU should consider pooling and streamlining information around (potential) displacement crises at a designated ‘crisis hub’. Importantly, more meaningful and constructive collaboration between the EU, member states, international organizations, partner countries, and affected countries is also needed. For this, the EU should consider replicating or continuing successful coordination mechanisms beyond the crisis moment, such as the Solidarity Platform, while ensuring a more proactive deactivation of purely crisis mechanisms. Internationally, the EU should continue building its engagement around migration and asylum issues. This would serve not only to foster longer-term exchange and crisis learning across boundaries (e.g., transatlantic exchanges on lessons learned and the way forward). It would also strengthen the EU’s global convening power and leadership at a time when migration crises are becoming increasingly complex and overlapping and therefore in need of joint efforts.
Topic:: Migration, European Union, Refugees, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Europe

195. A new generation of European Citizens’ Panels – Making citizens’ voices a regular part of policymaking

Author:: Johannas Greubel
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: As a first concrete follow-up to the Conference on the Future of Europe (CoFoE), beginning as of next year, the European Commission plans to make European Citizens' Panels (ECPs) a regular form of consultation ahead of key legislative proposals. Von der Leyen’s initiative to involve citizens in policy development is a substantial and positive innovation for EU law making and democracy. It not only answers citizens’ calls expressed in the CoFoE exercise. The measure will also give a boost to EU democracy and has the potential to mitigate shortcomings in the existing institutional consultation process. Yet, to make a difference, these Panels should be integrated into the current policymaking cycle by becoming part of the Commission's better regulation toolbox. This paper makes concrete recommendations on how this could be done by answering these three questions: When in the process and to what end? First, to make a difference, the Panels need to take place as early as possible in the development of a policy. Second, they must be consulted in a way that keeps the process as streamlined and effective as possible. The ideal way to reach these goals is to establish the ECPs as an additional consultation tool that the Commission can activate in addition to the public consultation carried out. The Panels would become an integral part of the institution's stakeholder consultation toolbox. When is a proposal ‘key’? First, the proposal must be a flagship proposal that is essential for one of the central priorities anchored in the Commission’s political guidelines. Second, as the Panel is supposed to complement the existing public consultation procedure, the proposal must be a legislative initiative with an Impact Assessment – thus also involving a public consultation – in which citizens are a crucial stakeholder group, primarily and directly affected by the policy. What is the follow-up? Citizens’ recommendations should directly feed into the Commission’s Impact Assessment of the respective measure and be annexed to it so that the co-legislators can take citizens’ recommendations into account at a later stage. If lawmakers follow these, the new generation of ECPs could improve the quality of legislative proposals from the Commission. Conversely, they risk becoming a fig leaf exercise, without any impact on the legislative initiative it accompanies. In this context, the Commission should use the upcoming ECP on food waste as a pilot Panel, as a steppingstone towards embedding ECPs fully in the EU’s decision-making.
Topic:: Public Opinion, European Union, Citizenship, European Commission, and Policymaking
Political Geography:: Europe

196. Strengthening the impact of EU sanctions against Russian aggression in Ukraine

Author:: Svitlana Taran
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: As Russia’s largest trade and economic partner, the European Union (EU) has significant leverage to expand the current sanctions regime. Yet, EU countries continue to rely heavily on Russia for their energy, raw materials, and agricultural fertilisers. This dependency reduces the EU’s economic resilience and exposes it to supply chain disruptions. Much more should be done to turn the tide on this dependency. The EU has so far adopted eight sanction packages against Russia, which already impacted the country’s economy. However, these restrictions will have an even greater impact when all sanctions are in full effect, and Western supply chains reduce their reliance on Russian products. This Discussion Paper identifies five measures the EU can take to increase the impact of sanctions against Russia and end the war as soon as possible. Extending the scope of sanctions on Russian export revenues: A large part of Russian trade flow remains unsanctioned. Russia is receiving record revenues from energy exports due to rising prices. Even though Russia’s exports are likely to drop significantly after the implementation of the EU oil embargo, the impact of sanctions can be further increased. By expanding their scope to other sectors, such as the diamond industry, and placing embargoes on all iron and steel supplies, the EU can significantly impact Russia’s economy. Expanding and aligning export restrictions among the coalition countries: Many exports from the EU to Russia are not restricted. Sanctions should first target products that Moscow would find difficult to replace. EU and coalition partners (such as G7 members and other allies) should align their sanctions regimes to make it harder for Russia to redirect its trade to other markets and substitute its critical imports. Encouraging more company-level self-sanctions: Voluntary restrictions by companies can have a greater impact on Russian trade and investment flows than compulsory country-level sanctions. Self-sanctions by international companies should be encouraged in sectors unaffected by country-level sanctions, with public pressure serving as an effective catalyst for their trade and investment withdrawal from Russia. Preventing sanctions circumvention: Loopholes in the current sanction regime should be addressed. Sanctioning countries should take stronger enforcement actions, among others, against countries and foreign companies that facilitate sanctions evasion. The EU must work more closely with its allies to monitor and enforce the imposed sanctions. Prolonging renewal periods for economic sanctions: The current six-month period for renewing sanctions against Russia could lead to calls for lifting them, threatening EU unity. To avoid this and increase the sanctions’ impact, the EU should consider prolonging their renewal period until Russian troops leave the Ukrainian territory. Russia’s war of aggression has caused disastrous economic effects and devastating infrastructure damage to Ukraine. EU and Western sanctions against Russia should reflect the extent and consequences of these actions. Closing loopholes and widening the scope of sanctions must be a priority for the EU and its allies to strengthen their impact and curtail Russia’s capacity to continue its war. At the same time, existing possibilities for replacing Russian products with Ukrainian ones should be exploited. While maintaining EU unity over sanctions is a challenge, staying united will be crucial for sustaining the credibility of EU policies, accelerating the end of the war, and securing long-term peace in Europe.
Topic:: Sanctions, European Union, Economy, Exports, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

197. Overcoming the ambition-unity dilemma

Author:: Fabian Zuleeg and Janis Emmanouilidis
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has triggered a watershed moment for the European Union. To deal with the challenges in this new era, the EU must adapt its decision-making processes to the new circumstances, in particular regarding the unanimity requirement in key policy areas profoundly affected by the Zeitenwende, including foreign and security policy, the EU budget, as well as enlargement. While unity among member states is politically important, it makes it harder to take ambitious decisions quickly. This Discussion Paper by Fabian Zuleeg and Janis A. Emmanouilidis provides two concrete proposals to address this ambition-unity dilemma and improve the EU’s decision-making capacity in times of crisis. The EU should introduce a super-qualified majority in the (European) Council. If that is not possible, it should consider recourse to action outside the EU treaty framework via an ´intergovernmental avantgarde´. Unless the Union finds ways to upgrade its decision-making processes, ambition will suffer, and the EU will not be able to defend its values and protect its interests in Europe and beyond.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe

198. What should the EU do about Hungary’s illiberal turn?

Author:: Perle Petit
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Since 2010, Hungary’s government has followed a clear and deliberate trajectory away from EU democratic principles, turning the country into the first illiberal state in the Union. Before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Hungary’s illiberal turn remained relatively self-contained at the national level. Since the start of the war, however, this illiberalism has spread to the international arena, dramatically impeding EU institutional decision-making processes. Despite the urgency of the matter, the EU’s failure to address the country’s democratic decline has been evident. The EU institutions need to address the national and international impact of Hungary's flouting of democratic norms by proposing both short- and long-term solutions. To do so, the institutions should take the following actions: The EU Commission should stand fully behind the triggering of the rule of law conditionality mechanism against Hungary and insist that the country implements all proposed remedial measures in a legislatively binding way. A periodic review system must be put in place to avoid any reversal of these measures or manipulation of independent public bodies in the coming years. The rule of law conditionality mechanism should be triggered against other infringing countries, to demonstrate a zero-tolerance approach to democratic backsliding. The suspension of EU funds should be harmonised across different funding schemes. In this way, the Commission can avoid becoming compromised by disconnected conditionality mechanisms. Increased capabilities and powers should be conferred to independent EU organisations, such as the European Anti-Fraud Office and the European Public Prosecutor’s Office. These should review the strength of democratic institutions in backsliding countries and provide recommendations for reform. The institutions should look into the regional disbursement of EU budgets, bypassing central governments to allocate funds on a regional basis. The Council should consider replacing the unanimity rule with qualified majority voting to render EU decision-making processes more effective and to prevent single member states from holding EU decisions ‘hostage’. As Hungary’s leadership shows no signs of changing course, the EU should change tactics to actively preserve and protect democracy within its borders. The EU institutions should use the full toolbox at their disposal to halt Hungary’s illiberal turn, restore the independence of democratic institutions, and take long-term steps to prevent any further backsliding within the Union.
Topic:: European Union, Rule of Law, European Commission, Illiberalism, and Viktor Orbán
Political Geography:: Europe and Hungary

199. Bringing child immigration detention to an end: The case of EU return procedures

Author:: Anastasia Karatzas
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The harmful consequences of child immigration detention are, by now, increasingly well-documented. Evidence attests to the long-lasting and negative impact of the practice on children’s health, well-being and development, and has given rise to an international consensus firmly against its continued use. However, the European Union’s policies fail to reflect any such agreement, which is evident not least in the context of the Return Directive and member states’ continued use of the practice. As it stands, the detention of minors is permitted by the Directive and remains a plausible option both according to the European Commission’s proposal to recast it and the Council of the EU’s position on the matter. Furthermore, although the Directive mandates member states to explore all plausible alternatives and use child immigration detention only as a measure of last resort, evidence suggests that detention is prolific and other measures underused. In the recast proposal, little looks set to change on this front either, with the use of alternatives having fallen mostly by the wayside. In this context, this paper argues that, with negotiations on the file ongoing, the time for the EU to shift gears, ban the practice, and mandate member states to implement alternatives is now opportune.
Topic:: Immigration, Children, European Union, and Detention
Political Geography:: Europe

200. Applying an intergenerational mindset to European technology investments

Author:: Fabian Zuleeg
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine and the upcoming winter of discontent have accelerated the permacrisis, with serious consequences, not just in the short term, but also for Europe’s future. If the EU proves unable to work together and address today’s strategic challenges, member states risk leaving future generations with a Europe that is economically, politically, and socially fragmented and constrained. But this is not the moment for defeatism. Rather, the EU should adopt an intergenerational approach across all policy areas, asking: how will our reactions to today’s severe challenges affect future generations? This should include a common investment strategy: to counter our common societal challenges and crises, the EU should invest in technology and education, increasing Europe’s human and intellectual capital. However, despite technology’s prominence in the EU political agenda, the Union still struggles to make decisive steps to achieve global leadership in many areas. This Discussion Paper argues that the EU should have access to and control over new technologies to guarantee that these “public goods” are, at least in part, in common ownership. Taking equity stakes in technology should be at the heart of the European Sovereignty Fund, announced by Ursula von der Leyen in her 2022 State of the Union speech. Additionally, member states should work together to create a better environment for future private investment by harnessing the power of the Single Market and completing the Capital Markets Union. By adopting this intergenerational mindset, the EU can start the process of building technological wealth which will be accessible to everyone and help tackle Europe’s fundamental challenges. This new investment strategy will offer hope and ensure that the EU can provide peace, prosperity, and sustainability for the current and, more importantly, future generations.
Topic:: Education, Science and Technology, European Union, Investment, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

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