Number of results to display per page
Search Results
22. From the EMS to the EMU and...to China
- Author:
- Joseph Halevi
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- The paper highlights the position of German authorities, showing that they were quite lucid about the fundamental weaknesses inherent in a process that separated monetary from fiscal policies by giving priority to the centralization of the former. Instead of repeating the well known critiques levelled against the EMU – for which readers are referred to the unsurpassed treatment by Stiglitz, the essay highlights the splintering of Europe in the way in which it has unfolded during the 1990s and in the first decade of the present millennium. In particular the early economic and political origins of the terminal crisis of Italy are located between the late 1980s and the 1990s. France is shown to belong increasingly to the so-called European periphery by virtue of a weakening industrial structure and persistent balance of payments deficits. The paper argues that France regains its central role by political means and through its weight as an active nuclear military power centered on maintaining its imperial interests and posture especially in Africa. The first decade of the present millennium is portrayed as the period in which a distinct German economic area had been formed in the midst of Europe with a strong drive to the east with an increasingly powerful gravitational pull towards the People’s Republic of China.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, Political Economy, History, and Macroeconomics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, Europe, Asia, Germany, and Global Focus
23. The 2018 US-China Trade Conflict after 40 Years of Special Protection
- Author:
- Chad P. Bown
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In 2018, the United States suddenly increased tariffs on nearly 50 percent of its imports from China. China immediately retaliated with tariffs on more than 70 percent of imports from the United States. This paper assesses what happened in 2018 and attempts to explain why. It first constructs a new measure of special tariff protection to put the sheer scope and coverage of the 2018 actions into historical context. It then uses the lens provided by the 2018 special tariffs to explain the key sources of economic and policy friction between the two countries. This includes whether China’s state-owned enterprises and industrial subsidies, as well as China’s development strategy and system of forcibly acquiring foreign technology, were imposing increasingly large costs on trading partners. Finally, it also examines whether the US strategy to provoke a crisis—which may result in a severely weakened World Trade Organization—was deliberate and out of frustration with the institution itself.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, World Trade Organization, Bilateral Relations, Trade Wars, Donald Trump, and Imports
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
24. EU Trade Policy amid the China-US Clash: Caught in the Cross-Fire?
- Author:
- Felipe González and Nicolas Véron
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- China's rapid rise and unique economic system and the increasingly aggressive and disruptive US trade policy are posing an unprecedented threat to the global rules-based trading and economic system. The European Union has critical interests at stake in the current escalation, even as it has so far been comparatively spared from US trade policy belligerence and China's reactions. In this context, the European Union should adopt an independent and proactive stance, building on recent efforts and going beyond them. The European Union, even more than the United States or China, has a strategic interest in the preservation of the global rules-based order embodied by the World Trade Organization (WTO). It must play a leading role in steering WTO reform and modernization, working closely with broadly aligned third countries such as Japan and other players. It should expand its outreach beyond its immediate negotiating counterparts in both the United States and China, and leading European officials at both the EU and member state levels should work at better understanding China. While strengthening its domestic policy instruments to address new challenges, such as the screening of foreign direct investment for security purposes, the European Union must also resist its own temptations of protectionism and economic nationalism. In support of these objectives, the European Union should prepare itself for difficult decisions, which may involve revising some of its current red lines in international trade negotiations. Conversely, the European Union should stand firm on principles such as refusing one-sided agreements and rejecting abusive recourse to national security arguments in trade policies. The European Parliament, in working with the European Council and the European Commission, will have a critical role to play in steering the European Union through these challenging times.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Trade Wars, and Trade Policy
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, North America, United States of America, and European Union
25. Protectionism under Trump: The China Shock, Intolerance, and the "First White President"
- Author:
- Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In 2016, the United States elected an avowedly protectionist president. This paper uses US county-level electoral data to examine this outcome. The hypothesis that support for protectionism was purely a response to globalization is rejected. Exposure to trade competition encouraged a shift to the Republican candidate, but this effect is mediated by race, diversity, education, and age. If the turn toward protectionism is due to economic dislocation, then public policy interventions could mitigate the impact and support the reestablishment of a political consensus for open trade. If, however, the drivers are identity or cultural values, then the scope for constructive policy intervention is unclear.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, Donald Trump, and Protectionism
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
26. The state of China-European Union economic relations
- Author:
- Uri Dadush, Marta Dominguez-Jimenez, and Tianlang Gao
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- China and the European Union have an extensive and growing economic relationship. The relationship is problematic because of the distortions caused by China’s state capitalist system and the diversity of interests within the EU’s incomplete federation. More can be done to capture the untapped trade and investment opportunities that exist between the parties. China’s size and dynamism, and its recent shift from an export-led to a domestic demand-led growth model, mean that these opportunities are likely to grow with time. As the Chinese economy matures, provided appropriate policy steps are taken, it is likely to become a less disruptive force in world markets than during its extraordinary breakout period.
- Topic:
- Economics, Governance, European Union, Investment, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
27. How does China fare on the Russian market? Implications for the European Union
- Author:
- Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Jianwei Xu
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- China’s economic ties with Russia are deepening. Meanwhile, Europe remains Russia’s largest trading partner, lender and investor. An analysis of China’s ties with Russia, indicate that China seems to have become more of a competitor to the European Union on Russia’s market. Competition over investment and lending is more limited, but the situation could change rapidly with China and Russia giving clear signs of a stronger than ever strategic partnership.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Bilateral Relations, Governance, Investment, and Exports
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Eurasia, and Asia
28. Insights into China’s Developing Country Status
- Author:
- Tao Ma
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- As the international status of China as a rising power has been growing rapidly in the past 40 years, along with remarkable achievements in economic growth, China’s developing country status has been questioned by some Western developed countries. In January 2019, the US submitted to the WTO General Council the proposal An Undifferentiated WTO: Self-Declared Development Status Risks Institutional Irrelevance (WT/GC/W/757), presenting data arguing that China and some other developing countries had advanced to such an extent that they should be limited from being eligible for special and differential treatment and should give up their developing country status. During the WTO General Council meeting at the end of February, China and other developing countries hotly debated this issue with the US. China insisted that developing countries were confronted with mounting external tensions and their legitimate rights and interests in some international organizations and agreements had been constantly challenged. Against this background, it is critical to clarify China’s ongoing status as a developing country. Only after the real divide between China and developed countries has been clarified can China’s status as a developing country be secured.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
29. Shooting Oneself in the Foot? Trade War and Global Value Chains
- Author:
- Cecilia Bellora and Lionel Fontagné
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
- Abstract:
- Despite the “Phase One Deal” agreed on mid-December 2019, bilateral tariffs between US and China remain at unprecedented high levels, which will have long-lasting effects. US tariffs remain very high on parts, components and other intermediate products; similarly, only the last wave of Chinese retaliatory tariffs has been half cut. We investigate in this paper how such tensions between highly interdependent economies will impact trade, income and jobs. We rely on a set-up featuring General Equilibrium, imperfect competition and importantly differentiating demand of goods according to their use, for final or intermediate consumption. This authorizes tracing the impact of protection along the value chains, on prices, value added and factor income. Additional tariffs from official lists are taken into account at the tariff line level, before being aggregated within sectors. Beyond the direct toll of sanctions, US exports to the world post a sizeable decrease as a result of reduced competitiveness led by vertical linkages along the value chains. Because of the tariffs in place as of February 2020, three quarters of the sectors decrease their value added in the US. Consistent with political economy determinants, these twists of value added are transmitted to production factors, leading to sizeable creation and destruction of jobs, and reallocation of capital to the benefit of protected sectors, mostly at the expense of their clients. Ultimately, this paper sheds light on the economic consequences of policies disrupting global value chains.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, Bilateral Relations, Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
30. Are Your Labor Shares Set in Beijing? The View through the Lens of Global Value Chains
- Author:
- Ariell Reshef and Gianluca Santoni
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
- Abstract:
- We study the evolution of labor shares in 1995-2014 while taking into account international trade based on value added concepts. On average, the decline in labor shares (starting around 1980) accelerates in 2001-2007, after which labor shares recover somewhat. In contrast, skilled labor shares consistently increase. The acceleration in the decline in labor shares is associated with increased intensity of intermediate input exporting; this manifests in a sharp increase in the foreign component in upstreamness of industries and countries in global value chains (GVCs). China's global integration accounts for much of this. Declines in the price of investment together with capital-skill complementarity can explain both the consistent increase in skilled labor shares and the reversal of trend in overall labor shares. Compared to shares in GDP, labor shares in gross national product (GNP) are higher in countries with positive net FDI positions; the uneven spread of multinational activity contributes to greater inequality through this channel.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, Trade, Global Value Chains, and Skilled Labor
- Political Geography:
- China and Global Focus
- « Previous
- Next »
- 1
- 2
- 3
- 4